Latest / AG Bull / AG Squawk AM 10/7/2026 with Tommy Grisafi | 10 Year Yields Explode Higher

Transcript

AG Squawk AM 10/7/2026 with Tommy Grisafi | 10 Year Yields Explode Higher · AG Bull

• 0:09
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning, everybody.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: Tom Gersafi, Agbill, Media Ag Bill Trading.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: You're listening to Ag Squack.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: It is Wednesday 10 7.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: We have a major USDA report on Friday.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_00: We had a big rally in corn and beans and wheat yesterday.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: They all closed on the high.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: Cattle exploded.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_00: All that and more on this morning's Ag Squawk.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_00: Well, good morning, everybody.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: Tom Gersafi.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_00: I'm in Valparaiso, Indiana today.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: We had a big day yesterday, and I wish I had 10 slides on this is why corn was up, this is why beans were up.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: This is why wheat was up.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: This is why feeder cattle were up 10 months in the back.
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_00: But we don't have a lot of news and information.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: Now we're trading in the same range we've always been trading.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_00: So really, when you have a big move up and a big move down, and you're trading in the middle, it doesn't take much to move these markets around.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: Crude oil is still inching up.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: And as we look at things, we had a strong night last night that rolled over overnight.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: But let me quote up the market real quick.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: I do want to thank our good friends at plus 500.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: That's where we get our quotes.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: I'm looking at my plus 500 T4 app here, quoting up the markets.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_00: It is 7:15 a.m.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_00: Central.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_00: D's corns down four.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_00: Beans are down one.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: No beans.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: Have a 13 handle.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: That should make you pretty happy.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: Oats are up.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_00: Oats had a big day yesterday.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: Oats really popped.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: That was interesting to see.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: Not many people trading oats in the world, but I still like to watch them.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_00: Old pit trader stuff.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: Swybe meals up this morning.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_00: Soybean oil's down.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: Casey week down six.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: Border trade week down six.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: Looking at the outside markets, SP down 30, Nasdaq down 200.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: NASDAQ continues to rally day after day here.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: And even though crude oil is high and diesel's high, the Nasdaq stock market says hell with you all.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: You know what else is high?
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: Interest rates.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: Interest rates continue to move up.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_00: That is going to be a problem, but the stock market doesn't care.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: Looking at the interest rates, this is a wild one, folks.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: 10 years down, 11 ticks, bonds down 103.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: That means interest rates are approaching the highs again.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_00: Those are our quotes from plus 500.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: Moving on to the cattle, as we like to do.
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_00: Let's look at this cattle board.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_00: A good looking cattle board yesterday.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: D Slive cattle 224 up four.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_00: Feeder cattle looking at the no feeder cattle.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: 338.27 up 815.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: Piggies, no love there.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: 70 down a half buck.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: Uh not a lot of news there.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_00: What happened?
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: We opened up, started to go up, didn't stop going up, kept going up.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: I'll tell you what, there's some perma bears out there, and they're gonna they're gonna write a little check today.
• 3:09
  SPEAKER_00: Because if you're gonna if you're gonna trade feeder cattle with as big of a contract as that is, every one lot costs a lot.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: That's a significant move in feeder cattle yesterday.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: Backbunts up big, cash markets hot.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to finish this call and I'm gonna join this call here in a little bit called Before the Bell.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_00: And this is what how I learn about cattle.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: I'm much stronger in the grain complex, but uh when we talk cattle, we watch this guy.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_00: These are for subscribers.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: If you're a subscriber, thank you.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_00: If you're not, we wish you were.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: And of course, clients of Ag Bull Trading get this also.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: Before the bell with Mike Sands, a five-minute video on cattle.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_00: And old Mike's gonna explain it to us after the close today.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_00: Mr.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_00: Jed Sidwell is gonna meet with Mike, and they're gonna do Fat Tuesday.
• 3:55
  SPEAKER_00: Oftentimes Fat Tuesdays filmed on a Wednesday, but that's just how we roll here.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_00: So if you want a long form in-depth video, catch Mr.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: Mike Sands and Jed Sidwell.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: Also, for premium subscribers, this afternoon, I'm going to meet with the Ag CPA.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: Paul Nefer is going to join the stage.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: He's fresh off of traveling.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: He's got a whole new slide deck.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: He's going to tell you how the government's going to send you money.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: And although I'm laughing, it's not funny because we need it.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: We need the high cost of production, the high cost of diesel fuel and everything else.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to need all the help we can get.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: I don't have a single client who's not going to cash the check.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_00: Matter of fact, they don't even need to cash it, it just shows up in their account.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_00: I do ask if you're behind on watching videos, go to YouTube, Spotify, or Apple.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_00: Catch our Sunday show.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: We actually filmed it on Saturday with Mr.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: Jim Wiesmeyer.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_00: USDA Cornstock Shock and Harvest Pressure.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_00: Well, after yesterday's rally, we're about halfway back on that move, and I bet you all are feeling better.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_00: I was surprised to see the grains up last night, and we'll see if they can get to up on the day.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: Moving along here, a few things I want to talk to you about.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: Basic thing like Tommy, what do I do in the grain markets?
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: Do I sell or store?
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_00: We'd love to have that conversation with you.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: We'd love if you're a client, but one of the privileges being a premium client is you can call the trading desk 185-737 Farm.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: I have this much soybeans.
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_00: Do I really want to store them?
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: Can I have re-ownership?
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: How do I do that?
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: Give us a call 185-737 Farm.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: All eyes on this bad boy moving forward.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: This is the Friday USDA.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: We broke it down here.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_00: Here's our uh what analysts think estimates, range.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: Crazy thing about this is when we had our last report, no one was even close to the range.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_00: So we'll see how this ends up.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: But yes, Friday at 11 o'clock Central, we're going to have another report.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_00: What am I going to be watching?
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: The corn yield.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: That's going to be very important.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_00: I'm thinking that the American bean crop's in pretty good shape, but it's not just the size of the crop.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_00: Who the heck has had a heck of a move, and I've seen some good numbers come out of markets like take a back look from a few days ago.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_00: Look at sugar, cocoa, look at all these things that can come out of Brazil, and how just a currency move based on an election could really affect that.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: Friday's going to be a fun one.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: I hope you join us here and we'll do a video.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: I think Jed and I are going to be on the show together Friday talking about what's it cost to do an option.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to talk about where corn and beans are as of that morning and what a basic put and call cost on that.
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_00: All right, moving along here.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_00: What else do we have?
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: Economic calendar for today.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: Pretty quiet day at 6 a.m.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: That already happened.
• 6:53
  SPEAKER_00: MBA Mortgage Applications EIA, going to talk energies here.
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_00: Crude Oil has a 90 handle at 9 30.
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_00: FOMC meeting minutes.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_00: What's that mean?
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we have a new Fed chair, Mr.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_00: Kevin Warsh, and we're going to talk about, well, they're going to talk about what actually was said in that meeting.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_00: Keep an eye out at 1 p.m.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_00: See how that goes.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, if you're not a premium subscriber, we'd love to have you there.
• 7:17
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• 7:20
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• 7:21
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• 7:23
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• 7:25
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• 7:32
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• 7:36
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• 7:40
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• 7:47
  SPEAKER_00: Of course, we replay this show at 8 15 a.m.
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: In our afternoon show with Mr.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_00: Davis Michaelson, we replay replay at 8 15 in at night.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_00: With that, I thank you all for joining us.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_00: Short show today.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to get on the phone, send a text out.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to see where people are.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_00: I imagine a lot of folks sold grain yesterday on that rally.
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_00: They feel a little bit of a wow, soybeans have a 13 handle.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_00: And you know, I do have some clients who have above average yields in soybeans.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_00: I also have a lot of clients who are disappointed in their soybean yields.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of talk of quality issues in Iowa.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_00: Keep an eye on that.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_00: We need to grab an Iowa farmer and talk about those quality issues, but we we don't want to wish these markets up.
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_00: The markets had no problems going up.
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to join Mike Sands here and listen to that before the bell.
• 8:42
  SPEAKER_00: That's something if you need to learn more on cattle, you got to start somewhere.
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_00: How about a nice little five-minute video every day with Mr.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_00: Mike Sands?
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_00: Hope to see you on the premium side.
• 8:50
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• 8:52
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• 8:54
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• 8:56
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• 9:01
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• 9:05
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see you all tomorrow.