Latest / Apex Insiders Podcast / F1 British GP 2026 | Betting Preview
Transcript
- f1capper: Apex Insiders back. We got the Silverstone, or it's not Silverstone GP, the British GP at Silverstone. I got Alan, aka F1 tipster, aka Renegade Gamblers. I'm gonna do this every time, man. Just gonna call you by your three or four aliases you have. Yeah. Yeah. So yeah, we got a new one for us this weekend. Darksideday: Okay. Why not? Why not? f1capper: I actually we did have a sprint weekend here before. I can't remember. Can't remember. It's been so long. ⁓ but we do have a sprint weekend, so this makes it a little little tricky. Little tricky, but ⁓ complete opposite of what we're gonna see at Austria. ⁓ one longer track, lot more medium high speed cornering. weather's actually gonna cooperate in terms of no wet we ⁓ Darksideday: I think so. f1capper: weather, at least so far is what they're saying. It is gonna be a little little hot. I think they have the hardest compounds going at this track. So yeah, I mean it's ⁓ kind of, you know, mirrored from I guess a I don't know, what was the last track that is similar to this? I mean, you I guess you can take some stuff from Spain, you can take some stuff from Japan, but that's so far away. But anyways, ⁓ Darksideday: Maybe if we had Saudi, but not really. We didn't have Saudi at all. f1capper: Yeah, we didn't we didn't have it. No. But yeah, I guess from where we were in Austria to where we're at now, it's completely different, especially with elevation and everything else like that too. That played in hand over there. ⁓ especially with having the aero efficiency. So that what that means basically the macro of this is you put more weight into the power unitslash energy management than you Would at any other track just because you're going to be on full throttle most of the time. And there's already been reports about of of super clipping and all that fun stuff that could be happening. Basically, it kind of sucks that they're going to have to deal with that as as they go along and on the track. So yeah, so you have to wait a little bit more. It's less about the aero efficiency, not to say you dismiss it. But it's not going to be as critical like at as it was that in Austria, where that's super critical. ⁓ which leads us into tomorrow, actually, tomorrow morning ⁓ or tomorrow afternoon for you. ⁓ Free Money Friday. I actually all week I wasn't I was just you know, you know how I've been about F1 this year. It's been just an absolute pisshole of a series. With these cars. But I ended up Darksideday: I tell, I can tell, I tell. I thought you were enjoying it. f1capper: I well just lovely, lovely. Thank God the World Cup is going on because that has been ⁓ we well do you have do you have something to say? What's what's what is what do we Darksideday: Even worse. Well no, last last podcast you said you were 10 units down so I thought we'd just carry on that. But you've been watching it, you attended a game right? f1capper: ⁓ yeah. Yeah, I attended again. Yeah, I did. I attended ⁓ was it Tuesday? ⁓ yeah, I think it was the Tuesday. Yeah. Norway versus Ivory Coast. ⁓ was a bl was a blast. It definitely was. And I'm actually going again tomorrow. So I'm gonna go see Aussie versus Egypt and gonna hang out in Texas Live and watch Argentina after. I've been Just doing everything around town. So it's been kind of a I don't want this party to end, but I'm also starting a fatigue from every every little thing that I'm doing around town. So we'll see. ⁓ but that's neither here nor there. We're gonna do free money Friday. So I do have a bunch of picks that I just placed. However, I am gonna focus on one. I think that a thing we're gonna try to do moving forward is just we're gonna try to focus on a few plays. And ⁓ that will be kind of our our goal for this. But one of them, which shout out to Bradford, who's usually the guy that's just he's on it. I don't know. He's got like s him and and Maxwell. There are top two guys that are like just constantly scanning the books. Let's just put it that way. So shout out to them. But he did bring up that the Pierre Gasly. ⁓ over Bearman and I was like, ooh. And it was at one one point nine minus one ten odds on MGM. I think it's at one point eight three on DK. ⁓ I do like that play. I am gonna be trying to phone that one in. That's currently still sitting at that price at ⁓ minus one ten. So I like it. I know that Ghastly's had some shaky last few races. And but when we're looking at FP1 just specifically, he still has an average of like last five FP1s. He's still averaging in the like 13th position. So he's had some couple of them that were really bad for him. And Barriman is just I think it's just Haas. I don't know what's going on with them this year. They just haven't really been able to extract anything from this car to get them to be more consistent. It's just it seems like it's a very track-dependent. And in this one, he's I think he's been averaging for the past five, like thirteen point eight is his ⁓ finishing position. So it may be kind of priced right. I think there's still a little bit of value taking on Ghastly, but the bigger reason in this is I expect Merck PU's energy management to be a little bit more superior when it comes to this track, with Haas having also a little bit of balance issues at times and You know, we're we're kinda seeing some we're not sure where they're gonna be in terms of their pace. So I do like that. I think that is one play that I would like to give out as the Free Money Friday play. ⁓ and again, shout out to Bradford for pointing that one out. That's ⁓ on the MGM. What do you think? Darksideday: Go for it, go for it. f1capper: Yeah. A little free money Friday. I do have a bunch of others. So well I I I'll tease up the other one. ⁓ you could still get Ghastly over co ⁓ Colapinto. Now I know it's it's ki again, kinda iffy, but but I was like it was at minus one hundredty on Bet Online. I was like, hmm, that's kind of that's kind of short ⁓ long there for Darksideday: on. Not that trap. f1capper: For Ghastly over his teammates. So I'm gonna take that one. I took that one as well. And ⁓ yeah, that's that's ⁓ those are the few that I like. And then there was Bearman over Ocon on Bet Online, but I think unfortunately I might I moved it immediately as soon as I placed it. Again, they were giving us minus one seventy five over Ocon, so Darksideday: So does Kaloshe have pre-practice one winner? f1capper: No, I wish. I've been trying. I've been trying to message them. They're not gonna do that just yet. I think they're still trying to get up to speed. There's times they put matchups and there's times they don't. So Darksideday: I was looking for Mercedes fastest car or you could just do both drivers but better 365 has it at 1.66 maybe you it bit better than that but they basically win every FP1 I mean I think it's good enough f1capper: Actually you can get it at one point eight three on DK, which honestly, I was just looking at DK right now and I kinda like that. Darksideday: think so. f1capper: I think s that or if you want to take a chance on Russ, man, what is his line? Two to one. Yeah, just take the minus 120 then. The way I see this happening before before we even get into the ⁓ I mean Merc Mercedes looks like they just have the car to beat. And it's it's on paper. That's the feedback we're getting that we're we're obtaining here in the past 24 hours, even like 48 hours from driver comments, team comments, everything. And then ⁓ so you're gonna see Merck be Darksideday: It's a one-night show. f1capper: They're gonna be the pace setters for sure. I mean, shocker. But then there it's like who's next? And right now on paper, Ferrari, this is not the type of track for them. They they don't have that engine to be able to to keep up with the Merc PU. Well, there they might be able to beat McLaren because McLaren's having to reduce the amount of Power just because they're having reliability issues. That's why you're seeing them kind of like sometimes they're good, sometimes they're not. They're kind of really testing it out. And then Piastri has the newest ⁓ PU update. Lando does not yet, but will he take a penalty this weekend? It's possible. It just depends on. I could see him doing that if he qualifies kind of poorly. Like if he's kind of out of the top eight, maybe he does, maybe. Darksideday: You can't take it in sprint, can you? f1capper: ⁓ You can't, can you? No. But depending how the sprint goes, he he may or may not. He may or may not take it. So again, it's just gonna be he's kind of playing it by ear on like when he's gonna take it. So we thought last week he might, he didn't. So this week maybe, who knows? But I think he's they're trying to stretch it out as as much as they can to get kind of through the summer calendar. I could probably see them doing it at spa. ⁓ Darksideday: I don't think so. f1capper: Maybe. I could probably see them doing that because that's gonna be a tough one if you you're gonna need that power because spa is gonna be another tricky one, similar to s Silverstone, where you're gonna see the massive clipping. It's all about power, power, power, power. So ⁓ Darksideday: Yeah. And you were just saying about Ferrari. P.U. is terrible. Red Bull have the best one, allegedly. So you can get Max Verstappen over... Oh, I thought this was Lewis Hamilton. But you could get Max Verstappen over Charles Leclerc at 1.8 or over Lewis Hamilton at 1.91 for sprint qualifying. I like the Leclerc one a bit better. f1capper: Yeah. I do too. I think I'm now I got hey, listen, last last race I took him for qualifying over Hamilton. It worked out. I s and that makes me question something else, which I will bring up in a second. But LeClaire's just not having the season we thought he would. I mean, he started off okay. I don't want to say like he started off great, of course, but He just seems to he's just not liking this this car right now. And I don't know what I don't know what it is while Hamilton is he's gotten better and better. Like he was okay with the car and he's caught he's gotten better with it. Obviously the Darksideday: I mean in the race he did have damage so we'll give him that but yeah. f1capper: W with Leclerc. But even then, like we've seen it in countless times in the race, where you expect him to just he's he you know, tire whisperer, right? Y yeah. Darksideday: He's the driver away last year, but instead he's sort of falling back into Hamilton. f1capper: Yeah, he's he's he's peaks like pretty quick. I think there's still an opportunity for Leclerc to beat his teammate like it happened again in Austria, where maybe he does find that he extracts that extra little pace ⁓ as the qualifying sessions go on. Darksideday: and sort of little things that have sort of sort of seemed like Hamilton's further ahead than he is like he would have if he didn't risk it all in Monaco he would have qualified in front of him and just things like that and then Hamilton would have been P2 at all it's just small things f1capper: Yep. Yep. I think it's little things and Darksideday: But Lewis Hamilton at Silverstone when he was rubbish last year beat his teammate. I don't think I'd want to take him on at this track, maybe the one after. f1capper: I think Lewis Hamilton is when it gets to the race, we know how he he he's he's usually very good with his tires. He knows how to take care of his tires. He has a car that he's confident in. They're building on it. And on top of that, he's he's pretty phenomenal on s on ra on starting the races. Like he's he's gaining spot. I'd I very rare do you see him backing down or he catches up. So I I yeah, I think Right now my mind is I don't wanna completely jump off the bandwagon. There's gonna be a point where like Le Cl I think Leclerc will turn it around, but at the Darksideday: We're supposed to raise our facilities then. f1capper: ⁓ I think Spa, yeah. So I think that until I see something from Leclerc where it's like, okay, he's he's from beginning to end, from qualify like he puts it in consistently throughout a race week, weekend, I I just I can't I can't do it. Like unless it's just against the teammate and the odds are favorable. That's the only time. Like now we're seeing Leclerc as the dog to to Lewis Hamilton in all sessions, but I still Don't want to get cute with it this weekend. I s there's something there's a lot of hype for for Lewis Hamilton for good reason. He's really good at this track. It's his home track. You know, he's done really well. I mean, hell, he won what in 2024. I mean, I think there were some fortunate situations that happened. ⁓ but I I think it's the upgrades that Max had are showing they're yielding some good stuff. ⁓ I do want to caution a little bit on Max this weekend and that hype, just because last week we saw that he could have probably won, yes. But also last week was a little bit more beneficial to them because one is the track that they they always build a car that's aero efficient. So that's number one. And then the engine that they have, they have a little bit bigger of a turbo, which you know, in its race like last week where it's in higher elevation, bigger turbo is gonna help you over. everyone else just because you're able to extract more air more ⁓ more water everything into that into that PU so now we're back at Silverstone the elevation isn't as big but the PU is still very powerful so it is the second best one. ⁓ I I yeah ⁓ I was gonna say the one that I am eyeing is ⁓ Max Darksideday: And then, yeah, gone. f1capper: over Leclerc in the race, but I wanna find I want to try to scope out better odds. Right now I just looked at Bet Online because they put out their plethora of race matchups and it's at minus one seventy over Leclerc. If I can find something in like the minus one fifty, I would probably be taking that. Darksideday: Yeah, I agree, I agree. What do we think of McLaren? f1capper: Very, very big wild card, man. They ⁓ I personally think they're still gonna be fighting hand in hand with Ferrari. Where will they end up is still the the question mark. I I am I'm still leaning that they will find something. I still do believe that they will find something. I I think Lando and like Piastri will stay in the top six. ⁓ my I have no reasoning to this. I feel like Hajar is gonna maybe struggle a little bit here. I mean he will be where he needs to be. I just don't see him basically don't see him fighting in the top six as much as I would see like Piastri or Or Norris ⁓ I would be taking the odds if they're favorable. And I think I did do one on Calchi for the matchups, which was LeClaire. Yes, ⁓ Norris to beat Leclerc, though I would caution on that. The only reason why I took it was you're you're able to get some bids. I think I got a bid at like w plus one eighty. I'm checking right now on what that was. But That like if you can get the odds, I would definitely be taking it. But right now I'm not gonna get too cute with it. I do wanna see like I wanna see even through the sprint, like how how well have they been performing through the even the sprint? Because that's gonna be the tell. ⁓ but yeah, I got it at plus one eighty, plus one eighty one. Darksideday: Thank you. One thing that I do like that I do want to take on is that last race, I don't know how Russell kept on to that win because he was, his race pace was falling apart by the second and all of you guys who were on it must have thought, it's crumbling, it's crumbling. But I do like Kimmy over Russell here for whatever qualifying law race. f1capper: I do too. Darksideday: Like Kimi was, like Max was six seconds behind Russell and then Kimi was four seconds behind, didn't buy it yet in the race. They were all caught up and Kimi had bad start, bad traffic. Like a normal start and a normal qualifying. He's winning that easily. And I think here just translates, he's been doing it nearly every track. He's at gonna take it or even race win. f1capper: Yeah, I agree. I think that was one thing I'm kind of paying attention to is I don't know if I want to take it for poll. I kinda do, but you're you're spot on. I mean, when you're having to deal with some of the traffic that he had to deal with, so it was a shorter track. ⁓ he also I don't know why he ended up hitting whenever it could have been a VSC. He should have just waited and he would have been ahead of Russell and he would have won, most likely. But ⁓ I think Russell also went in with a little bit higher down force track. I mean, that's what he was trying to prep for, was more of a wants to try to preserve his tires. But you're right. Like he could have easily been second or third place, even if it wasn't for some of the fortunate situations. They just did a good job on their strategy. At the end of the day, yeah. You you you do a good job on your strategy, you win. Darksideday: I'm trying to think there's other situations, maybe race winner is better because see, Russell got po in Canada and then in the race was better than with Kimi nearly all the time. Which way was that gone, who knows, but yeah. f1capper: I think so. And at this track at this track, you would expect that he's not gonna ha he's gonna have way more opportunities to try to make that pass against whether it's his teammate, a max, any Ferrari, if he does like start P four, let's just say, even P five, he's gonna he's gonna have multiple opportunities to be able to overtake. And we were talking about that, which was I don't know if I wanna get stung by it again. I I said I'm kinda riding off both car to either finish podium, top six, whatever, but both cars to be on podium, it sounds pretty good. I just don't know if I want to chalk to it because you know for a fact if they even get if they're if they're P one anywhere in the top four, both guys, those odds for podium are gonna be like minus three hundred, minus it's even even shorter than that. So right now it is kind of favorable. Yeah. Darksideday: That's one 75 gimme, just take that instead. Half a unit, and then at least with the DNFs, you won't be too disappointed. f1capper: Yeah. And I think that's that's the way that's the way to go. Yeah. I like that. Darksideday: Is there anything you like for... Let's see our favourite one. Last classified. f1capper: The last classified. Darksideday: Wow, who's not going to break down? f1capper: let's see. Darksideday: launch roll was plus 115. No, no, we're not doing that. We're not doing that. f1capper: No, that's terrible. Let me get to Let's see less classified finisher. So I'm using Bet Online right now. Ooh ⁓ I mean, these guys already think that Haas are gonna be outside of o the obvious caddy and Aston Martin. They think Haas is gonna be the two worst cars and then it's Williams, which I the Williams is getting hyped. They do have a upgrade coming. They're not actually bringing the whole thing, but they are getting an Osempic shot and they're supposed to reduce some more weight. This will maybe be a better track for them as well. So when it comes to like grid rival pick-ums, I think when you're looking at 16 and a half, 15 and a half, which is where their their area is at, I can only look better ⁓ than those numbers. You can take the chance on Wars, but I don't think they're gonna repeat what they saw last week. They knew they were going to be pretty bad last week and it showed. So I think if you're going to do one I don't I don't mind I wn why not an Audi? I mean I know Audi's been it can be frisky. I know Holkenberg had his his moment last year. But forty to one, one of those two. That's probably gonna be a hoss. Why I mean it I'm afraid to say it maybe Ocon twenty five to one. Darksideday: His time has come. f1capper: Maybe? Darksideday: Maybe. It's too difficult this market now because there's too many donkey. Then there's like, there's two little donkey cars. It's just like Aston Martin Terrible. f1capper: I don't Yeah. Yeah. What about this? Are we ready to get back into the overclassified markets over seventeen and a half? No. Darksideday: no no no no no no no no no no no ⁓ f1capper: No no no but seventeen and a half now. It's that seventeen and a half. I mean Car should be reliable. Darksideday: No, I don't think so. No, don't touch it. Both Cadillacs are DNFM. f1capper: Don't touch it, he says. Darksideday: and then so that's 20. If you're going to do it, I think you're going to do like... You gotta wait for news that Cadillac have fixed their brakes and then go over 19 and a half, 5 to 1. Or just ladder it. f1capper: I don't even have night air. Darksideday: because we have had a race where it's like two DNFs or one DNA. f1capper: W it was last race though, right? Where did what did the last race end? No, no, because there? Darksideday: No, there was millions. f1capper: I had to leave early, so I didn't actually Darksideday: Who gave you that time off? Leave in early. f1capper: Yeah, I know. I know. ⁓ there's four. Yeah. Science. Science was the one. I mean, outside of the caddies having the same fucking issue. I don't see them Darksideday: That was full DNA. You know what, I revert what I said about Last Classified. The Aston Martins are getting lapped by everyone. Ethan Alban unlapped the Aston Mines in 17th. So I think you just take one and go with it. Because if they're that bad, it has to be one of them, unless they both do you know? f1capper: I mean are you gonna do it? No. Darksideday: No. ⁓ this is purely entertainment right here. f1capper: Purely or purely if we're doing a purely entertaining one, I kinda I ca what about what about over five seconds winning margin? Darksideday: Are you gonna do that? f1capper: I haven't checked to see what the other markets are, but I'm about to. Darksideday: What's the price of that? f1capper: ⁓ I have my ⁓ I have one point eight or one point eight three. Darksideday: Okay, I don't hate it. f1capper: While under six seconds is at plus one hundred twenty five between six and twelve. I mean maybe do that. I don't know. Darksideday: I don't like the markets anymore, only when you had like a dominant force. f1capper: I'll have to see. Kinda eyeing it, but I will have to go see back it back again because I just can't see that Mercedes like if if they start th they might be racing each other if it if that were the situation, if they're both one, two racing, they're probably gonna say at some point, like, hey, you know, if you're about a you know, a second and a half off, take care of your you know, stay in second right now. Like don't Don't stay too close, right? We don't want that same issue to happen that we've had where if you're racing too close to someone, keep the clean air. Just let's you're kind of conceding the first place, whoever that may be, which likely could be Russell, which is Russell has been tailing off a lot of the times too. So that's kind of my justification. If we do think Kimmy is gonna go out there and just if you're gonna go all out on Kimmy this weekend. in every way possible from pole to race win, it might not be a bad idea to take the over five. That's that's just my my hypothesis on this. I so ⁓ yeah, absolutely, absolutely I Darksideday: Alright, should we end on a pick-em? So I've only got qualifying market and I think it's qualifying like Saturday qualifying. f1capper: I don't even have qualifying. I have sprint qualifying and sprint, but prize picks. I did do a prize picks one. ⁓ let me get your thoughts. So well, let me get you or is this a sprint? ⁓ it does say sprint. But it says starting position, so it was sprint qualifying. So I did this one. I did max under four or better than four and a half with Lando. Darksideday: All right, let's do spring qualifying. Yeah, I like that. f1capper: With Lando better than five and a half. ⁓ I was a little do I really wanna take the chance on that? But I just I wanted to combine two of the top guys together. However, let's kind of walk through what they have. Lewis Hamilton is at three and a half, Russell two, Lando five and a half, Piastri six, Hajar at seven and a half, Lawson nine, Limblad nine and a half, Gasly ten and a half, Holkenberg 12, Gabe twelve and a half, Cola, thirteen and a half, Behrman 14, Ocon 15.5, and then you got the 15 and a half, sixteen and a half, Albond and signed signed. Darksideday: Did you know? Do more Lewis Hamilton 3.5 as well with that. f1capper: I was thinking about it. I want I like to do two cards normally. And I said maybe there was some correlation there that I should have played. So I'm also kind of still worried, like hey, he might actually stick it, but the ones that I've been that I really like as the cards, maybe we kind of do it this before we make our picks. The ones that I did like from price picks were three and a half over. Darksideday: Yeah. f1capper: or more with Lewis Hamilton, Max under four and a half. I liked I'm leaning Lawson over nine. I think nine is about the spot he might, you know, he might get there. But if he gets there to nine, then it just pushes. part of me actually thinks Linblad is the one. If you're going to try to go more on one of those V carbs, it's probably Lindblad. Potentially, but maybe t you take Lawson. ⁓ I don't know if I want to get cute because like if I if you're gonna correlate it, maybe if you're gonna take the nine more or the nine and a half more, you probably want to put Gasly or Holkenberg. Ghastly's ten and a half is still kind of iffy to me, but again, I'm kind of bullish on the Mer Merck engine. ⁓ and then signs signs fifteen and a half, album. ⁓ fifteen and a half and then Albon sixteen and a half. If you take those less, I mean, I think they're just overreacting a little bit to last week, and there's an opportunity that they actually do a little bit better. So all he has to do is get 15th, right? Albon all he has to do is get 16th and he's they're they've hit their numbers. It's not that that bad for them. Cause you already know the bottom four who they're gonna be Darksideday: Nerve. f1capper: So that's kind of where my my head's at for that. With grid rival, it's a little different. They have Max at three and a half, Kimmy two, Hajar's same seven and a half, LeClaire at four and a half, Hamilton three and a half, Norris four and a half, Piastri five and a half, Lawson nine and a half, Ghastly ten and a half, Hulkenberg 12.5, Gabe 12.5, Albon 16.5, Oakon 15.5, Behrman 14.5, Perez 18 and a half, Botas 20. Science fifteen and a half, Limblad nine and a half, and then Colopento thirteen. Darksideday: similar. f1capper: Mm-hmm. Except that's I mean it's Darksideday: That pair is worse than 18.5. f1capper: thinking about that. Let's put that one with what? Let's do do we do be I better? Darksideday: Was Spiderman 14 and a Worst. f1capper: You think worse? Darksideday: always worse house. f1capper: Well I mean, he's been hitting that number. He's been right on that number for qualifying. I think it should be better. He's at fourteen. Darksideday: Or maybe Limblad? Is Limblad 9.5? ⁓ Maybe that one works then. f1capper: He's nine and a half. Mm-hmm. Alright. We'll do that one. We'll throw that in. Why not? I did it. It's in. I'll probably do some more. We'll have some more out there. Darksideday: You can find them on the Pick'ems page on our server. f1capper: Always talking. There's some underdog too. I honestly have been ignoring underdogs since they've limited me to Yeah, they're still alive. They just they just limited me to crap that I can't even Darksideday: Blimey, they're still alive. f1capper: Can't even do more than twenty five dollars. Let me see what they have. Any Darksideday: for your safety. f1capper: ⁓ they have like everything? ⁓ no they don't. This is for this is actually for the race. Yeah, I don't want to touch that. Yeah. Anyways, if you want to talk about it, get into our Discord. That's actually part of our free service. It's the Pick'ems page. And we're always ⁓ we're always chatting it up. So I don't know. Did we miss anything? Darksideday: We're all going to make money this week. Just put that out there and then it will happen. f1capper: Maybe maybe everyone I will be making money up until the race because the race is where it it just always falls apart. Always. Darksideday: Does that also include the sprint? I forgot. f1capper: No, I think right now my biggest crutch is is the race. Which is funny because I'm still I still got like I'm still ahead on race. My worst session is the sprint shootout still. Everything else is still positive. Darksideday: I think I'm just gonna have to chase Kimmy again. It was my only two bets qualifying and race. Two separate. f1capper: I mean, I don't blame you, man. I'm I'm I'm all the but there but to back a Merk. But there's part of me that's like Will Russell find something this weekend? Is this gonna be a little bit better of a track for him? But we'll see. I'm not gonna get cute with it. He gu I gotta have the odds for it. That's that's my biggest thing. So Darksideday: Thank f1capper: All right. Well we'll see you in the Discord and ⁓ yeah, it's ⁓ sprint weekend, so we'll have lots of action going through the through the weekend, every session. Darksideday: See you later guys.