Latest / Marketing Psychology with Fexingo: Behavioral Triggers, Persuasion, and Consumer Behavior / Why Mystery Products Make Us Buy More
Transcript
- Lucas: So, Luna, I've got a question for you. Have you ever bought something without knowing exactly what you're getting? Luna: Like a mystery box? Honestly, I once bought a 'surprise bag' from a local bakery. It was three dollars, and I got a stale croissant and a decent cinnamon roll. Pretty mixed. Lucas: That's exactly the kind of experience I want to dig into. Because mystery products — blind boxes, surprise bags, grab bags — they're a massive category now. And the psychology behind them is fascinating, because by any rational standard, removing information should make a product less attractive. But it often does the opposite. Luna: Right, because if I don't know what's inside, how do I know if it's worth the money? And yet people line up for these things. Lucas: Yeah, and the numbers bear that out. Take Japan's gachapon machines — those capsule vending machines. The market there is estimated at over four hundred million dollars a year. And Pop Mart, the Chinese company that made blind boxes a global phenomenon, their revenue more than doubled between 2019 and 2020. This isn't a niche gimmick. Luna: So what's driving it? Is it just the thrill of the unknown, or is there something deeper going on? Lucas: There's something very specific. It comes down to how our brains process reward. In behavioral science, there's this idea called the 'reward prediction error.' When you get a surprise — especially a positive one — your brain releases more dopamine than it would for an expected reward. So that moment of opening a blind box and discovering a rare figure? That's a bigger neurological hit than buying the same figure off a shelf. Luna: So the uncertainty actually amplifies the pleasure. That's like the opposite of what you'd expect from a marketing perspective, where you want to reduce friction and doubt. Lucas: Exactly. And it's not just about the reward itself — it's about the anticipation. There's a classic study from 2011 where researchers found that people who were waiting to find out if they'd won a prize showed higher dopamine levels during the anticipation than after they actually got it. So the 'maybe' is literally more exciting than the 'yes.' Luna: That explains why I keep watching those unboxing videos on social media. It's not just about seeing what's inside — it's the suspense before the reveal. Lucas: And that suspense is exactly what brands are weaponizing. One of the most famous examples is the Pokémon card market. But recently, I think the most illustrative case is the rise of 'blind box' toys from companies like Pop Mart. They've essentially turned a simple plastic figure into a collectible lottery ticket. Some rare figures resell for ten or twenty times their original price on secondary markets. That scarcity loop — not knowing what you'll get, plus the chance of hitting something valuable — keeps people buying. Luna: But that also feels a little manipulative, doesn't it? Like, you're exploiting a cognitive bias to get people to spend more. Lucas: It's a fair question. And there's definitely an ethical line. When mystery mechanics are used to push people into overspending, especially kids, that's a problem. Some countries have actually regulated 'loot boxes' in games for that reason. But in physical retail, there's a spectrum. A bakery selling a surprise bag of day-old pastries is one thing. A company selling fifty-dollar blind boxes with a one-in-a-hundred chance of a rare item is another. The key is transparency about the odds, I think. Luna: Transparency about what's in the pool, yeah. Because otherwise it's just gambling. Lucas: Right. And there's research that shows that when people know the odds, they're more willing to engage. It's a bit like a lottery, but with a tangible product. The mystery is part of the fun, not a trap. And when it's done well, it can actually create a sense of community. Think about the whole unboxing culture — people sharing what they got, trading duplicates, speculating about future drops. Luna: So it's not just about the individual purchase, it's about the social glue. That's a pretty powerful marketing angle. Lucas: Absolutely. And I want to bring in another angle: the 'IKEA effect' — which we covered a few episodes ago — actually plays a part here too. When you open a blind box and get a figure you have to assemble or a mystery kit you have to build, you value it more because you put effort into it. So mystery plus effort equals an even stronger attachment. That's why some subscription boxes, like those for model kits or DIY crafts, work so well. Luna: I hadn't connected those dots. So mystery creates desire, and effort creates value. Together, they're a one-two punch. Lucas: Exactly. But there's a flip side. Mystery products can backfire if the consumer feels cheated. If the actual items are worth less than what you paid, or if the odds of getting something good are terrible, you lose trust. And that's fatal in the long run. One bad experience can turn a loyal fan into a vocal critic. Luna: So it's a high-risk, high-reward strategy. What's the sweet spot for brands that want to try this without alienating people? Lucas: I'd say three things. First, make sure the worst-case scenario is still decent. No one wants to pay ten bucks for a keychain that costs a dollar. Second, be transparent about the range — tell people what kinds of items they might get, even if you don't reveal the specifics. And third, keep the odds of a 'rare' item realistic but not impossible. A one-in-a-hundred chance is exciting; a one-in-a-thousand feels like a scam. Luna: That makes sense. It's like the difference between a slot machine and a prize wheel at a carnival. One is designed to take your money, the other is designed to give you a shot. Lucas: And there's a cultural dimension too. In Japan, gachapon machines have been around since the 1960s, and they're a beloved part of the culture. The mystery is part of the charm. In the West, we're seeing a similar shift, especially with the younger generations who grew up with collectible card games and mystery minifigures. For them, the unknown is part of the fun, not a source of anxiety. Luna: So it's not just a fad, it's a cultural shift in how we shop. That's pretty significant. Lucas: It is. And as marketers, we need to understand that the desire for surprise isn't going away. But we also have to be responsible. There's a fine line between delightful uncertainty and manipulative exploitation. And the brands that get that right are the ones that will build lasting loyalty. Luna: Before we wrap up, I want to mention something that's been on my mind. We've been talking about how mystery can drive engagement, and it reminds me of how this podcast itself works — every episode is a bit of a mystery, you never know what we're going to cover next. Lucas: That's true. And just like a good blind box, we want each episode to be a pleasant surprise. If these conversations have sparked something you've actually used in your own work or just found interesting, a couple of dollars a month is genuinely what keeps these going. You can support us at buy me a coffee dot com slash fexingo. It's a small thing that makes a real difference. Luna: And we really appreciate it. It keeps us independent and ad-free, so we can keep exploring topics like this one. Lucas: So, back to mystery. I think the takeaway is that uncertainty, when used ethically and creatively, can be a powerful tool. It taps into our innate curiosity and our love of surprise. But it's not about tricking people — it's about creating a genuine moment of joy. And that's something any brand can learn from. Luna: I love that. So next time you see a blind box, think about the psychology behind it. And maybe treat yourself to one — just don't blame us if you get a duplicate. Lucas: Ha, exactly. Thanks for listening, everyone. We'll be back with more insights next time.