Latest / Best of Business / Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large unpacks recent GDP data for first quarter of 2025

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Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large unpacks recent GDP data for first quarter of 2025 · Best of Business

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  Speaker 2: William Dan Harold's business editor at Largest with us ALM. Hello, Heather,
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  Speaker 2: How good was that GDP number?
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  Speaker 3: Pretty good? Like? I mean, you know, the economists had
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  Speaker 3: already upped all the forecasts to zero point seven and
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  Speaker 3: we got zero point eight. But as you know I've
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  Speaker 3: mentioned before, I'm a little bit skeptical of GDP numbers.
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  Speaker 3: You know that the one from the last quarter of
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  Speaker 3: twenty twenty four got revised down to zero point five,
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  Speaker 3: so you know, there's no guarantees that it's spot on
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  Speaker 3: for this one either. But look, look, we'll take it. It
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  Speaker 3: looks like the recovery was underway and in full swing
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  Speaker 3: in that first quarter, so well we'll you know, let's
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  Speaker 3: take that at for starters, well.
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  Speaker 1: And we hit it.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, geez, honestly, how many quarters have we had
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  Speaker 2: that have been rubbish? Right? At least we are headed
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  Speaker 2: solidly in the right direction, even if we have to
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  Speaker 2: grind it out for the rest of the year, or
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  Speaker 2: am I being a little too poly pollyannas here?
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  Speaker 3: Well, I think we are still heading in the right direction.
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  Speaker 3: What's what spooked economists in the last week or so
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  Speaker 3: is that the sort of high frequency data for the
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  Speaker 3: second quarter that we're seeing for the coming through from
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  Speaker 3: May around manufacturing and services that went back into negative
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  Speaker 3: territory card spending and May went down. So so all
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  Speaker 3: this this this first quarter GDP was pretty solid. It
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  Speaker 3: was all pre Donald Trump doing the Liberation Day thing,
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  Speaker 3: and you know, that sort of hit confidence, I guess,
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  Speaker 3: and it made our key we savers go down and
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  Speaker 3: that that probably didn't help. And then we've we've you know,
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  Speaker 3: we've also seen that you know, not not great stuff
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  Speaker 3: from the housing market, which we know is sort of
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  Speaker 3: a bit of a driver of a wealth effect, particularly
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  Speaker 3: in the big cities in Auckland. So consumers not feeling
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  Speaker 3: hugely confident right now. So so so yeah, the sort
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  Speaker 3: of mixed feelings, but you know it is heading the
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  Speaker 3: right direction. And you know there's a feeling that well
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  Speaker 3: for starters that the Reserve Bank will probably pause in
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  Speaker 3: July and just wait and see you and won't give
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  Speaker 3: us another cut, just in case they start to get
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  Speaker 3: ahead of themselves.
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  Speaker 2: Of course, not why would they want to do anything
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  Speaker 2: to help the economy. Liam thanks very much, appreciate it.
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  Speaker 2: Liam Down, the Herald's Business editor at large.
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