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The Favorites - NFL Draft Early Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
0:12
Speaker 1: I I'm Chad Mollman, chief content officer of the Action Network. Guys,
0:17
Speaker 1: we are heading into draft season. I can't freaking wait
0:23
Speaker 1: it like it fills me with joy to be able
0:26
Speaker 1: to talk so in depth, le about something that is
0:32
Speaker 1: a made up event that consumes our attention, starting with
0:38
Speaker 1: my bff, my companion Mike and Padre, my co host
0:42
Speaker 1: for every episode, Professional Better Signing Hunter, Hello swim In,
0:48
Speaker 1: Hello Hot Chad. Yes, people can definitely tell our excitement
0:51
Speaker 1: compared to last year when there's a draft with a
0:53
Speaker 1: bunch of quarterbacks. Chad, we obs us about it. It's
0:56
Speaker 1: just such an it's so nice we have good quarterbacks
0:59
Speaker 1: in a draft. Prepared to last year, we were like,
1:01
Speaker 1: is he gonna be the first offensive linement taking? Which, yeah,
1:03
Speaker 1: I mean you might like, but the average fans like
1:06
Speaker 1: I do not care about offensive lineman. So definitely, this
1:09
Speaker 1: year has been fun. All the trade rumors, all the drama.
1:12
Speaker 1: Who three quarterbacks? No one really still knows who's going
1:15
Speaker 1: number one. It's getting pretty crazier with what we got
1:20
Speaker 1: twenty five twenty days left to the draft, so getting close.
1:24
Speaker 1: I can't freaking wait. It fills me with joy. It's
1:27
Speaker 1: like it's the most you'll free light joy to have
1:31
Speaker 1: this conversation. The stakes are so low, yet it's so
1:34
Speaker 1: much fun. Let's talk about some big news first. Okay,
1:38
Speaker 1: we know that a lot of you listen to us
1:40
Speaker 1: through the Herd podcast feed. Starting April seventeenth. April seventeenth,
1:48
Speaker 1: you will have to subscribe to the Favorites feed if
1:52
Speaker 1: you want to hear this podcast. I've been telling you
1:54
Speaker 1: guys for a couple of months. Subscribe directly to the
1:56
Speaker 1: Favorites feed if you want to hear this podcast. You
1:59
Speaker 1: will have to do at if you want to hear
2:01
Speaker 1: us starting April seventeenth. The good news is our relationship
2:05
Speaker 1: with The Volume continues. We will still be on AMP,
2:10
Speaker 1: we will still be all over The Volume's massive YouTube channel.
2:13
Speaker 1: Come fall. You will still hear me on the Herd
2:16
Speaker 1: podcast and other action analysts on other college football and
2:20
Speaker 1: NFL podcasts. But if you want to listen to the
2:23
Speaker 1: Favorites as a podcast wherever you get your podcasts, Spotify, Apple,
2:27
Speaker 1: you must subscribe to the Favorites. We're coming off the
2:33
Speaker 1: Herd Feed. There's still a lot of good stuff on
2:36
Speaker 1: the Herd Feed. And I want to remind everybody right
2:38
Speaker 1: now if you are not listening to Hoops Tonight with
2:41
Speaker 1: Jason Timp who has been a regular Favorites podcast guests
2:46
Speaker 1: in the Herd Feed from the volume, you're missing the wave.
2:51
Speaker 1: He's amazing, So please do that. Please subscribe directly to
2:55
Speaker 1: the Favorites Simon. We're going to get into the draft
2:59
Speaker 1: right now. We're going to get into it with Luke Swain,
3:03
Speaker 1: also known as Vegas Refund. He was one of our
3:06
Speaker 1: co hosts for our Action Island show all season long
3:11
Speaker 1: during the NFL season. He models, mocks, bets, organizes thinks
3:17
Speaker 1: about the draft in an obsessive way that would make
3:21
Speaker 1: mel Kiper and Todd McShay feel like he is their son.
3:26
Speaker 1: And Travis Reid. He's an Action Network og. He basically
3:31
Speaker 1: owns the bet Labs database that we all pilfer from
3:35
Speaker 1: profit from mention every single episode of every single podcast
3:41
Speaker 1: of every single week during the NFL season. The guy knows.
3:46
Speaker 1: The guy freaking knows, and we're lucky to have him
3:48
Speaker 1: on the podcast. Travis, Welcome it, Chet. Yeah, you mentioned
3:54
Speaker 1: we've kind of already been in this draft season for
3:56
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks, but if your audience it's a
3:59
Speaker 1: good time to jump. There's still plenty of time to
4:02
Speaker 1: get down on some action now. And also just start
4:04
Speaker 1: following this stuff, following the rumors on Twitter, following the
4:08
Speaker 1: beat writers, see what they're saying about these players, and
4:11
Speaker 1: try to get some good closing line value before the
4:13
Speaker 1: draft starts in a few weeks. Before the show today,
4:18
Speaker 1: Luke sent me his draft spreadsheet. Luke, I want you
4:25
Speaker 1: to explain to people how intricate what a tapestry this is.
4:32
Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, and I want to say where
4:36
Speaker 1: I got the idea, And a lot of credit goes
4:39
Speaker 1: to Grinding the Mocks, which is a separate website that
4:42
Speaker 1: basically accumulates like thousands of mock drafts. I mean, I
4:46
Speaker 1: was getting pretty annoyed with the website, even though it's great,
4:50
Speaker 1: because he wasn't refreshing it enough and you didn't know
4:52
Speaker 1: what mocks he was using. So I decided I'm just
4:54
Speaker 1: gonna make my own mocked aggregate. And then there's a
4:58
Speaker 1: couple of websites that eight mocks after they happen, So
5:03
Speaker 1: I accumulated all those ratings and basically gave all the
5:06
Speaker 1: mock drafts a mock rating, and I made my own
5:10
Speaker 1: grinding the mocks out of the best mockers, and I
5:13
Speaker 1: was able to refresh it as fast as I want,
5:15
Speaker 1: and I've been doing it for a couple of years,
5:17
Speaker 1: do it for NFL and NBA each year to kind
5:21
Speaker 1: of progressed, and it definitely is obsessive, but it really
5:26
Speaker 1: just creates a power rating, almost as if you were
5:28
Speaker 1: making a line for an NFL game. You take these
5:32
Speaker 1: mock drafts and you basically get the average out of
5:35
Speaker 1: them all, and if his overunder opens up at seven
5:38
Speaker 1: and his mock draft eedp is six and a half, like,
5:43
Speaker 1: there's your edge. It's not that simple, but it is
5:47
Speaker 1: a great way to you form a foundation in terms
5:51
Speaker 1: of like your perception of what you want to look
5:53
Speaker 1: for and what we'll have value when it comes out
5:56
Speaker 1: as we go. Yeah, you're a total freak. It's an amazing,
6:02
Speaker 1: amazing piece of spreadsheet wizardry. I can get the other
6:09
Speaker 1: guys on here an invite too. I feel bad, I
6:11
Speaker 1: feel like they're left out right now, Well, let's send
6:14
Speaker 1: it over together. You guys are phenoms and freaks of nature,
6:20
Speaker 1: which is why it's great that You're hosting an NFL
6:23
Speaker 1: draft podcast on the Action Network podcast feed up until
6:26
Speaker 1: the Draft. It's amazing content and amazing insight that will
6:30
Speaker 1: probably help people profit and learn a lot about betting
6:33
Speaker 1: on the draft. Most important question, Simon, I want you
6:38
Speaker 1: to ask the first question because you and I have
6:41
Speaker 1: been talking about quarterbacks for a while. So you ask
6:43
Speaker 1: whatever quarterback question you want of Travis and Luke right now.
6:47
Speaker 1: Who the hell is going number one? Who's going number one?
6:51
Speaker 1: Is this another Baker? Is this a Baker situation? Here
6:53
Speaker 1: are we all? I think it's gonna be ceg in
6:55
Speaker 1: the last minute. If it's Anthony Richardson, is it going
6:58
Speaker 1: to really be Rice Young? I'm from your guy's perspective.
7:01
Speaker 1: I mean, here we are in April. Who the hell
7:04
Speaker 1: is going to be the number one picked? I mean,
7:05
Speaker 1: I'll start with you, Travis, who do you think you mean?
7:06
Speaker 1: Number one? So? CJ. CJ. Stroud is the favorite? I
7:10
Speaker 1: think rightfully so. But I do agree that it's wide open.
7:14
Speaker 1: There's no such thing as a lock this far out,
7:18
Speaker 1: and we've seen some mocks recently. You know, have Bryce
7:21
Speaker 1: Young go first? I do think Richardson is an outside shot.
7:26
Speaker 1: I think if you wanted to bet him to go
7:28
Speaker 1: number one. You needed that when it was like one
7:29
Speaker 1: hundred to one, everyone kind of jumped on that train,
7:32
Speaker 1: and now that that value is kind of sucked out.
7:35
Speaker 1: So if you made me pick right now, I'm picking CJ. Stroud.
7:39
Speaker 1: But again it's it's not a lock. I think if
7:42
Speaker 1: you want to bet on Bryce Young, that's fine, But
7:46
Speaker 1: if you made me pick, I'm going with Stroud going
7:48
Speaker 1: first overall. Luke, Yeah, I've been on Stroud for a
7:54
Speaker 1: couple of months now, which, like the other two have
7:57
Speaker 1: you get a lot more noise where you talk about
8:00
Speaker 1: out the crazy athleticism of Anthony Richardson and then he
8:03
Speaker 1: got Bryce Young's crazy undersized, where Stroud like has been
8:09
Speaker 1: kind of under the radar just because there's less to
8:11
Speaker 1: talk about, which is exactly the reason I kind of
8:13
Speaker 1: thought he was going to go one, because all the
8:16
Speaker 1: talking points and the other two guys are thought of
8:19
Speaker 1: as negatives, where Stroud just doesn't have the narratives that
8:23
Speaker 1: are considered negative, which is exactly the reason why I
8:28
Speaker 1: think he's going number one. And we have videos out there.
8:30
Speaker 1: I think it's from forget which platform it is about
8:33
Speaker 1: Josh mcdown loving Stroud, but it is every year there's
8:37
Speaker 1: a cycle where there's a favorite, and then someone else
8:42
Speaker 1: becomes a favorite, which has become Stroud, and then you
8:45
Speaker 1: have the random quarterback who is Hendon Hooker all of
8:48
Speaker 1: a sudden and getting hype. So the odds are so
8:52
Speaker 1: sensitive that like Stroud probably shouldn't be a minus three
8:55
Speaker 1: under favorite, Like we don't know, we will know, but
9:00
Speaker 1: like Bryce was a heavy favor because we had multiple
9:02
Speaker 1: months people betting into a highly sensitive market. Then all
9:05
Speaker 1: of a sudden, you get the trade and everyone overreacts
9:08
Speaker 1: and the odds flat and they might start coming down
9:12
Speaker 1: because you can see some mock drafts right now starting
9:15
Speaker 1: to favor Bryce, which I don't totally buy yet, but
9:19
Speaker 1: it's definitely catching my attention. But I'm putting money on it,
9:22
Speaker 1: which I wouldn't bet Strout at his current odds. It's Stroud.
9:27
Speaker 1: So one of the most interesting pieces of news that's
9:30
Speaker 1: come out this week is Jalen Carter and his agent
9:34
Speaker 1: saying that he's not meeting with teams outside the top ten.
9:37
Speaker 1: In the spreadsheet you sent me, Luke, his average big
9:41
Speaker 1: board position was six, and that was a little bit
9:45
Speaker 1: lower because McShay has him at thirteen, and the other
9:48
Speaker 1: mockers basically have him between three and five. His mock
9:54
Speaker 1: expected draft position was it about seven. So do you
10:01
Speaker 1: think that Jalen Carter falls out of the top ten?
10:05
Speaker 1: Do you think people get scared away by the character issues?
10:07
Speaker 1: Where's the value in making a bet on Jalen Carter
10:09
Speaker 1: right now? So I don't think he gets out of
10:12
Speaker 1: the ten. Where Jeremiah was actually just on the Pat
10:16
Speaker 1: mccaffee show and he said that he's not taking meetings
10:22
Speaker 1: outside of the top ten because the Eagles gave him
10:24
Speaker 1: a promise if he gets there. So I think it
10:26
Speaker 1: is the top ten. But the only reason he's even
10:30
Speaker 1: at six on the Big Board rankings is because McShay,
10:34
Speaker 1: like one of his stances has been against Jalen Carter's character,
10:38
Speaker 1: Like he was the first one to come out before
10:40
Speaker 1: any of the like the arrest in the cart, like
10:42
Speaker 1: the speeding to whatever it was, came out and everyone
10:47
Speaker 1: was kind of calling him crazy and no one had
10:49
Speaker 1: he was correct and he stood on that hill. So
10:52
Speaker 1: I do think his ranking you have to take with
10:54
Speaker 1: a grain assault where these issues any other player, he's
10:58
Speaker 1: falling out of the tron probably but Carter is that
11:02
Speaker 1: much of a freak, and he fits the Seahawks and
11:04
Speaker 1: the Lions so well with what they need and how
11:07
Speaker 1: they play. There is a guy, Rob Statton, who is
11:10
Speaker 1: a Seahawks blogger and probably one of the more respected
11:14
Speaker 1: people that I tune into on what they write, and
11:17
Speaker 1: he has a firm stance on them not taking the
11:22
Speaker 1: Seahawks not taking Carter at five because of the character
11:26
Speaker 1: issues and because of I guess Snyder and his new
11:29
Speaker 1: outlook on who he's drafting with character, because everyone thinks
11:32
Speaker 1: that the Seahawks are taking love. He's questionable character players
11:38
Speaker 1: based off of their history. And if it wasn't for
11:42
Speaker 1: Rob Statton having this strong stance, I would be all
11:45
Speaker 1: over the under seven and a half right now. But
11:47
Speaker 1: I just can't. I just I think he's gonna go
11:50
Speaker 1: to the Seahawks are lines. I don't even think he
11:52
Speaker 1: makes it to the Bears or Eagles. He's that good.
11:57
Speaker 1: That's fascinating. But like the mocks, and the problem with
12:01
Speaker 1: the mocks right now is we have the Cardinals at
12:04
Speaker 1: three and they haven't traded yet. Where all the mock
12:07
Speaker 1: drafts who aren't making trades, which I love, I hate
12:11
Speaker 1: trades are putting Willow Anderson at three and then you
12:14
Speaker 1: have Jaalen Tyree, etc. At four and five, where if
12:20
Speaker 1: the Cardinals, as we expect, make a trade, you assume
12:24
Speaker 1: a team's going into three for a quarterback, which if one, two, three,
12:29
Speaker 1: four go quarterback, that is pushing everyone up. Where right
12:34
Speaker 1: now will Anderson's going three in mocks with the trade,
12:37
Speaker 1: he would go five. So if he goes five, then
12:41
Speaker 1: you got Jaylen Carter at six, and guys like Tyree
12:47
Speaker 1: just get pushed back, which is the problem, which I
12:50
Speaker 1: think is why we haven't gotten as many over runners
12:52
Speaker 1: as we want. But to me, the Raiders are the
12:55
Speaker 1: raiders and Eagles are the two dominoes that decide the
12:58
Speaker 1: entire draft, right Simon. Earlier in the show, Travis mentioned
13:05
Speaker 1: following now for rumors and things like that. So Simon first,
13:09
Speaker 1: then Travis, we talked about green on Green Dot Daily
13:14
Speaker 1: the other day. Some rumors with Tennessee potentially moving up
13:18
Speaker 1: to number three. You like the combination of Tennessee at
13:22
Speaker 1: number three and that bet. How are rumors playing into
13:26
Speaker 1: how you're making decisions about betting right now? Yeah? We
13:31
Speaker 1: bet a lot off rumors. I think mean you joke
13:33
Speaker 1: all the time, it really is this time here is
13:35
Speaker 1: who you know because a lot of people are gonna
13:37
Speaker 1: feed you bad info, and there's some people that are
13:39
Speaker 1: getting you really good info. They're not going to keep
13:41
Speaker 1: from themselves because you're gonna trade information with them. And
13:43
Speaker 1: I think it came out you know that Vrabel has
13:46
Speaker 1: been interested interested in these quarterbacks, right, he's been gone
13:49
Speaker 1: to their pro days and then we've kind of seen
13:51
Speaker 1: odds shifting this week. It's because more and more noises
13:53
Speaker 1: being heard now of no Tennessee wants to be in
13:56
Speaker 1: that third spot. There's a quarterback day like in this draft,
13:59
Speaker 1: and you look at their division and makes sense, right,
14:02
Speaker 1: we're talking about Tennessee has gotten there. They were at
14:06
Speaker 1: one point they were arguably the best Sea then FC right,
14:08
Speaker 1: they were the one seed. They weren't the best team,
14:11
Speaker 1: but they had gotten that one seed. It kind of
14:12
Speaker 1: fell apart from there. Now everything's fallen apart right there.
14:15
Speaker 1: Get they got rid of a J. Brown, Derek Hennry's
14:17
Speaker 1: kind of passed his prime now most of us assuming
14:19
Speaker 1: he'll be traded this year or this is his final
14:21
Speaker 1: season in Tennessee. It seems like a team they'll be
14:24
Speaker 1: in need of a quarterback. So it's making sense where
14:26
Speaker 1: people keep saying they're going to trade into that third
14:28
Speaker 1: spot and the fact that they do love Anthony Richardson.
14:31
Speaker 1: So to me, if Bryce Young false that three spot,
14:34
Speaker 1: if Anthey Richardson falls that three spot, easily could see
14:37
Speaker 1: them being a team that goes in there and gets
14:39
Speaker 1: that pick. So to me, untry to hear what Travis
14:42
Speaker 1: to say about it, but you know they're plus two
14:44
Speaker 1: thirty right now to make that pick of the third
14:46
Speaker 1: spot at Fandel And to me, you know, they're a
14:50
Speaker 1: team that makes sense in that division. You got Trevor Lawrence.
14:53
Speaker 1: So if they moved in that three spot, they'd have
14:55
Speaker 1: Houston ahead of them, which obviously is drafting a quarterback
14:58
Speaker 1: we think or they maybe they're they're not. Then you
15:00
Speaker 1: have then in the three spot. Then you're right behind
15:02
Speaker 1: me of the Colts. So pretty crazy. FC South, they're
15:05
Speaker 1: all going in on quarterbacks. They're all, you know, trying
15:08
Speaker 1: to make that next move. I just I want to
15:12
Speaker 1: believe it's Tennessee. But like people keep saying, it's all
15:15
Speaker 1: rumors chat everything we're hearing out is just strictly rumors,
15:18
Speaker 1: nothing set in stone. So the reason I'm ben is
15:20
Speaker 1: just feels a good value of two thirty. When there's smoke,
15:23
Speaker 1: there's fire. There's a lot of smoke right now in
15:25
Speaker 1: Tennessee moving into that three old. So what do you
15:27
Speaker 1: think about this going on right now? Travis? Yeah, I
15:30
Speaker 1: agree with you, And it's a good point with India
15:32
Speaker 1: at four because if you do make that trade, you
15:35
Speaker 1: prevent them from getting that third quarterback, which there's a
15:38
Speaker 1: clear tier of those top three and then leaves at four.
15:42
Speaker 1: So if you get into that third spot, you prevent
15:44
Speaker 1: one of your division rivals from getting that. So it
15:46
Speaker 1: makes a lot of sense of why they do that.
15:49
Speaker 1: You mentioned smoke. There's a lot of smoke. They don't
15:51
Speaker 1: like Tannehill. They drafted Malik Willis that they didn't work out,
15:55
Speaker 1: he got Benchford, Josh Dobbs like, so their quarterback is
15:58
Speaker 1: just a mess. So it makes it's like why they
16:00
Speaker 1: are desperate for a quarterback. So I think that trade
16:04
Speaker 1: up makes a lot of sense. Kind of the anti
16:08
Speaker 1: smoke I guess was the Raiders early maybe they would
16:10
Speaker 1: be the one that trade up. Now it seems like
16:12
Speaker 1: that has cooled off where they're just going to stick
16:14
Speaker 1: with Garoppolo as maybe as a bridge year gap year
16:17
Speaker 1: to maybe next year, or maybe even wait for two.
16:21
Speaker 1: So I think if you know, if Vegas is out,
16:24
Speaker 1: it's really just between do the Colts want to trade
16:27
Speaker 1: up one spot. We've seen that happen before too, just
16:29
Speaker 1: to ensure you get your quarterback. And it might just
16:32
Speaker 1: be Arizona playing those two teams off of each other
16:34
Speaker 1: as well, like, Hey, we're trying to get the best
16:36
Speaker 1: deal out of one of these two. We know one
16:38
Speaker 1: of you needs a quarterback. Give us your best offer, Travis,
16:42
Speaker 1: give me your best your most favorite bet right now
16:47
Speaker 1: on the draft that you've either made or are still
16:49
Speaker 1: looking to make and are waiting on. Value. Well, the
16:54
Speaker 1: best one we made was on our podcast a few
16:57
Speaker 1: weeks ago, was when Stroud was an underdog to be
16:59
Speaker 1: the numb run pick. So that that's the best one,
17:03
Speaker 1: and that's where I kind of mentioned the closing line
17:04
Speaker 1: value early as far as best like right now that
17:07
Speaker 1: you can still make. I still think Jackson Smith and
17:10
Speaker 1: Jigba for first receiver overall minus two hundred, he's pretty
17:16
Speaker 1: clearly in that he's going to go first. There's a
17:19
Speaker 1: wide gap. I'm not privy to Luke's magical spreadsheet yet,
17:23
Speaker 1: but I'm assuming it has it has a similar gap
17:27
Speaker 1: between him and the second best receiver. So I still
17:31
Speaker 1: think that's a bet you can make right now that
17:33
Speaker 1: shows plenty of value. All the question marks were about
17:36
Speaker 1: his health and everything, because he didn't he missed a
17:38
Speaker 1: lot of the season, those are pretty much gone away.
17:42
Speaker 1: So I think he's pretty clearly that top receiver in
17:45
Speaker 1: this class, and I still think he's a value. You
17:48
Speaker 1: guys get into this because you find the value or
17:54
Speaker 1: you love the draft so much, and this sort of
17:56
Speaker 1: became a way to study it. No, because it's the
17:58
Speaker 1: only thing you can bet on where you can find
18:01
Speaker 1: out the answers to the test before you take it.
18:04
Speaker 1: It's that easy, Like you can bet on that you
18:07
Speaker 1: can have the perfect beat and in a football game
18:09
Speaker 1: and Josh Allen gets hurt on the first play and
18:11
Speaker 1: that bet is done. Where the amount of variables in
18:17
Speaker 1: that scenario compared to something like the NFL Draft, where
18:21
Speaker 1: good I'll just has to take that card to the podium,
18:24
Speaker 1: it's not even comparable. If you, like Simon said, like
18:28
Speaker 1: if you have good info, if you are doing your
18:31
Speaker 1: due diligence, like a minus two hundred bet in the
18:34
Speaker 1: draft very well might as well be minus infinity. Like
18:38
Speaker 1: a minus two hundred bet in the draft doesn't equal
18:40
Speaker 1: a minus two hundred bet in a regular sports game.
18:43
Speaker 1: If you have info or you feel confident, everything aligns,
18:46
Speaker 1: like minus two hundred, minus three hundred, whatever it is, Like,
18:50
Speaker 1: might as well be minus infinity, because like, you know
18:53
Speaker 1: what's going to happen. And the most important thing to
18:58
Speaker 1: take when you're betting on the draft is your personal
19:01
Speaker 1: opinion does not matter. You're not the one making these picks.
19:04
Speaker 1: Your job is to figure out the front office and
19:08
Speaker 1: what they're going to be doing. Like, if you think
19:11
Speaker 1: player X is better than player Y, and you're gonna
19:14
Speaker 1: bet player X because you watched all his YouTube highlight
19:18
Speaker 1: videos or whatever it is you think he's gonna go here,
19:22
Speaker 1: just stop, Just put your phone down and dump at
19:25
Speaker 1: that way. But yeah, it's just like the NFL and
19:29
Speaker 1: the NBA Draft are the only two things where you
19:32
Speaker 1: can get the outcome and you can bet off of it,
19:36
Speaker 1: and I think books are. It just scares me because
19:40
Speaker 1: I love it and it can it's very profitable, but
19:44
Speaker 1: every year that passes, I'm terrified that they're just gonna
19:47
Speaker 1: stop offering them, because we've seen books like Circa offered
19:54
Speaker 1: the biggest menu of NFL draft props. The next year,
19:57
Speaker 1: they didn't offer him at all points bet off for
19:59
Speaker 1: the big menu last year. This year they're not offering them.
20:04
Speaker 1: So it's a very advantageous and niche market. And with
20:08
Speaker 1: all these states becoming legal, Ohio is offering them, Massachusetts
20:12
Speaker 1: is offering them. You can definitely make some money. Well, Simon,
20:19
Speaker 1: do you feel the same way. I always think back
20:21
Speaker 1: to the mac Jones Trey Lance at number three bet
20:25
Speaker 1: that you made and being on it, but also you
20:29
Speaker 1: were not feeling like you knew the answers to the
20:32
Speaker 1: test when they called the name, because you were pretty
20:35
Speaker 1: anxious and I think blacked out and that didn't actually
20:38
Speaker 1: hear the name. Yeah, that was unique though. That was
20:42
Speaker 1: one of those where it was literally me telling everyone
20:45
Speaker 1: they were wrong, and it's a million people saying, who
20:48
Speaker 1: the hell are you like who? And that's that was
20:50
Speaker 1: a fair argument against me. It was just like, all right,
20:53
Speaker 1: I get it. I'm not some targing to sha, I'm
20:55
Speaker 1: not on the ESPN telling you no, mac Jones is
20:57
Speaker 1: going third. Overall, the deal is done. With the forty Niners,
21:00
Speaker 1: and you know Chris Simms, he was leading that parade
21:03
Speaker 1: the whole time. So that was definitely a unique scenario
21:05
Speaker 1: where I had info that all that was just BS
21:09
Speaker 1: and that Trey Lance was their guy, and then a
21:11
Speaker 1: week before it was like, oh no, this is legit.
21:14
Speaker 1: This is definitely Trey Lance, and the books are way off.
21:17
Speaker 1: I think even before an hour before I remember having
21:21
Speaker 1: this memory, it was still plus one seventy five over
21:24
Speaker 1: three and a half for Mac Jones. So literally the
21:26
Speaker 1: books had no idea either. They were still all in
21:29
Speaker 1: that Mac was gonna a third pick. So that was
21:31
Speaker 1: one of those where it's like that's why I started
21:33
Speaker 1: doubting myself Chad, where it's like, holy shit, I am,
21:38
Speaker 1: I do think you were. There was a moment where
21:40
Speaker 1: you were very right, Like I think the Niners traded
21:43
Speaker 1: out for Mac and changed their mind, which I think
21:46
Speaker 1: is very similar to what the Panthers could have going
21:49
Speaker 1: on right now. And that's what I was honestly about
21:52
Speaker 1: to get through, where like I'm feeling confident if Bryce
21:56
Speaker 1: Young goes number one, I'm easily looking at six figure
22:00
Speaker 1: loss easily. So that's one of those where I'm I'm
22:03
Speaker 1: not gonna lie. I'm gonna be stressed out because a
22:06
Speaker 1: lot of rumors with a lot of noise our Bryce
22:08
Speaker 1: is gonna go number one, and I've been making beds
22:11
Speaker 1: for about two months now that he wouldn't be. So
22:14
Speaker 1: that's definitely gonna be a draft here. I'm gonna be stressing,
22:17
Speaker 1: just like the other one where I did, like Chad said,
22:20
Speaker 1: I heard them say mac Jones to the forty nine ers,
22:24
Speaker 1: like I was that broken mentally from not sleeping. Haven't
22:28
Speaker 1: way too much money on it. So I'm stopping myself
22:31
Speaker 1: because I'm honestly I did a hedge on CJ, and
22:34
Speaker 1: I was just like, all right, I have a position now.
22:36
Speaker 1: I still believe I am right that Bryce won't be
22:39
Speaker 1: going number one. Like the guys talked about, you really
22:42
Speaker 1: never know until we see, you know, until we wake
22:45
Speaker 1: up Thursday morning on the draft day and I see
22:48
Speaker 1: CJ minus five hundred or off the board, then I'll
22:51
Speaker 1: feel good. Until then it still might be bright hung.
22:54
Speaker 1: So that's why I feel like this draft's really fun
22:56
Speaker 1: exciting right now because we there's other positions like these
22:59
Speaker 1: guys about. There's a couple of things we already kind
23:01
Speaker 1: of know things are trying to fill out here. No
23:04
Speaker 1: one knows what's about to happen as number one pick.
23:06
Speaker 1: And that's what we love in these kind of drafts
23:08
Speaker 1: where you can make a lot of money going to
23:11
Speaker 1: cherry and kind of fade in the public in these drafts,
23:14
Speaker 1: or you know, you can trust the info you're giving
23:16
Speaker 1: from the general public and the books like Vegas, just
23:20
Speaker 1: talking about the books get killed a lot of times.
23:22
Speaker 1: So as much as I love the draft, it's it's
23:26
Speaker 1: tough where a lot of these books might limit you
23:27
Speaker 1: to one hundred to two hundred dollars. So that's one
23:29
Speaker 1: of those I try to tell people you find a
23:31
Speaker 1: good number, shop around, you have to shop around. We
23:35
Speaker 1: always start at shopping around. The draft is tenfold. So
23:38
Speaker 1: we're sponsor by Fandor we're gonna talk FanDuel lines. Please
23:42
Speaker 1: please shop around because different books will have different lines
23:45
Speaker 1: for all these kind of bets. Yeah, can't emphasize that enough.
23:49
Speaker 1: Like Luke said, the draft is so volatile. Books are
23:52
Speaker 1: always changing. That are feelings and strategy. When it comes
23:56
Speaker 1: to book and bets for the draft, they are available
24:01
Speaker 1: in different mark What the markets that are available are
24:04
Speaker 1: different from book to book and state by state. Travis
24:09
Speaker 1: and Luke, have you seen a lot of or any
24:14
Speaker 1: draft position over unders posted at any books? If not,
24:18
Speaker 1: when do you think we can expect to see that?
24:23
Speaker 1: I haven't seen it yet. Okay, yes, Draft Kings has.
24:26
Speaker 1: I think Draft Kings hays like five up right now,
24:30
Speaker 1: which at this time last year we had way more.
24:34
Speaker 1: And I think it has to do with the Cardinals
24:36
Speaker 1: or they're just I mean, they're definitely coming soon. DraftKings
24:40
Speaker 1: has Will Anderson, Anthony Richardson, Jalen Carter, Christen Gonzalez, and
24:46
Speaker 1: Broderick Jones and Zaah Flowers, which was random as hell,
24:51
Speaker 1: but books now, in what I've noticed the last year
24:55
Speaker 1: is two years ago. If they get money, they'd be
24:59
Speaker 1: moving like the line, so if it opened at ten
25:02
Speaker 1: ten and a half, that go to eleven and a half,
25:04
Speaker 1: twelve and a half, etc. Now they're just juicing the
25:07
Speaker 1: hell out of them. So instead of moving the line,
25:09
Speaker 1: they're just making the side that's getting bet minus four
25:12
Speaker 1: hundred and almost like kind of blocking people out, which
25:17
Speaker 1: currently every overunder is heavily juiced. The only one Broderick Jones,
25:22
Speaker 1: opened up at twelve and a half. Now it's thirteen
25:24
Speaker 1: and a half, but I think we're gonna start seeing
25:27
Speaker 1: them with basketball ending we're getting closed. It's definitely should
25:33
Speaker 1: please because that's that's where that's my bread and butter.
25:37
Speaker 1: Are the overunders? So are there? This is an interesting
25:43
Speaker 1: question because we know people are listening to this podcast
25:45
Speaker 1: because we are market movers, we are market makers. We
25:49
Speaker 1: see it happen. Tell me the bet you've made so
25:53
Speaker 1: far that you're most excited about, and the bet you're tracking.
25:59
Speaker 1: The bet that I'm made that I'm most excited about,
26:03
Speaker 1: probably Titans quarterback Like that's like if Titans go QB
26:08
Speaker 1: and it's Levis or Are, like, I might need to
26:12
Speaker 1: be revived because I'll be that excited tracking right now.
26:19
Speaker 1: I have a lot of bets. Um. The one I
26:23
Speaker 1: do like, which I took a little bit of it,
26:26
Speaker 1: but Eagles to go offensive line is one that I'm
26:28
Speaker 1: starting to feel really strongly about, which I think it
26:31
Speaker 1: was plus five hundred a couple of days ago. It's
26:34
Speaker 1: come down a little. I like plus four hundred. But
26:38
Speaker 1: I do think Scarronsky at ten if he's there, which
26:41
Speaker 1: I think the Bears gonna go Paris as long as
26:44
Speaker 1: the Raiders don't go all line, which I think the
26:46
Speaker 1: Raiders are very much in best player available mode, so
26:50
Speaker 1: I don't see them going Paris where Bears go Paris.
26:53
Speaker 1: Scarronsky just makes so much sense at ten for me,
26:58
Speaker 1: where like Lucas fan now is the very trendy pick,
27:02
Speaker 1: which we are at a peak, like group think mock
27:05
Speaker 1: draft mode right now, which is most copycat product that exists,
27:09
Speaker 1: and in a generally considered weak class, there has never
27:15
Speaker 1: been a more dangerous group think that can't exist in
27:18
Speaker 1: terms of what the consensus is. Where normally, if a
27:22
Speaker 1: player five through seven in every other draft, they're just
27:29
Speaker 1: they are ranked five, six, seven, Is that's that? Where
27:32
Speaker 1: this year five through seven is a whole different ballgame.
27:38
Speaker 1: The middle of this portion compared to other years is
27:41
Speaker 1: not as strong, and one team could have this player
27:44
Speaker 1: at the top of their board and another team could
27:46
Speaker 1: have the same player at the bottom of their board.
27:48
Speaker 1: So the chaos creates opportunity when betting the draft, there
27:51
Speaker 1: was no chaos, we would have nothing to beout. They
27:54
Speaker 1: just be offering mine us a million line, so makes
27:57
Speaker 1: them more leverageable. But just we need the over runners
28:01
Speaker 1: like please, and I'm almost. I'm like, I stopped asking
28:05
Speaker 1: because I feel like we're pushing him away, but we're
28:08
Speaker 1: getting close. No, my favorite thing I saw that would
28:10
Speaker 1: just make the whole thing go to hell everyone's mock
28:13
Speaker 1: draft would be the Seattle Seahawks taking Robinson, the running
28:15
Speaker 1: back from Texas at pick five. That would just be
28:18
Speaker 1: everything I dream of, pure chaos where it's like all
28:21
Speaker 1: all the unlytic people actually hate it and anyone that
28:23
Speaker 1: did a mocked draft laps they hate because be like,
28:25
Speaker 1: why is this guy going this high? But I'm I'm
28:28
Speaker 1: an Ingreden with a lot of guys I haven't ranked
28:29
Speaker 1: as my third best player in this draft. I mean,
28:31
Speaker 1: he is one of the best running backs I've ever
28:33
Speaker 1: seen coming out of college. Show as much as I'm
28:35
Speaker 1: shifting on people knocking him too, the Eagles at pick ten,
28:39
Speaker 1: I get it. Like this kid, he literally is like
28:41
Speaker 1: Adrian Peterson. He has a unique running style and he's
28:44
Speaker 1: really hard to bring down. So this I love this draft.
28:48
Speaker 1: That's why I'm excited we're gonna break it down if
28:49
Speaker 1: these next one weeks because this is a really really
28:52
Speaker 1: fun draft. A lot of moving pieces and a lot
28:55
Speaker 1: of you know, people just don't know, Like you just said,
28:57
Speaker 1: five through seven, everyone has different mocks. Everyone's kind of
29:00
Speaker 1: moving pieces around, different players in different spots. All it
29:03
Speaker 1: takes one guy outside people's top ten to come into
29:06
Speaker 1: that top you know, five, seven through seven, that'll shake
29:09
Speaker 1: up everyone's mock draft. So just a really really crazy year.
29:12
Speaker 1: It's tied an into I had the widest range of
29:16
Speaker 1: outcomes of any player in this draft. Robinson, Yeah, Bejan
29:21
Speaker 1: Robinson could go third, he could go twenty fifth, he
29:23
Speaker 1: could go a lot of teams in between, because it
29:26
Speaker 1: really just depends on how much these teams are buying
29:29
Speaker 1: into analytics that running backs don't matter at all and
29:32
Speaker 1: not to take one in the first round, versus they're
29:34
Speaker 1: tape guys that look at them and go yeah, but
29:37
Speaker 1: he can do this and he can do that. So
29:40
Speaker 1: it'll be really interesting to see where he goes. We
29:42
Speaker 1: talked about this. We think he's one of the few
29:44
Speaker 1: guys you probably can't bet because he has that such
29:48
Speaker 1: wide range of outcomes, Like you can't whatever is over under?
29:51
Speaker 1: Is it? Like you said, it could be five under,
29:53
Speaker 1: it could be five over. He's the toughest prospect to
29:56
Speaker 1: nail down where to go, just because we don't know
29:58
Speaker 1: where the NFL use the running back position right now. God,
30:04
Speaker 1: I mean Jem I had We've been on jem I
30:09
Speaker 1: had the greatest quote over the combine where if you're
30:12
Speaker 1: a team that is win now mode, it's okay to
30:15
Speaker 1: take a running back, or if you're not winning now,
30:18
Speaker 1: you're just wasting his prime years. Where teams like the Lions,
30:23
Speaker 1: which I see a couple of Lions like Lions and Eagles,
30:27
Speaker 1: I think are the trendy bijon picks because they are
30:30
Speaker 1: and win now, um, But anywhere else it's just he's
30:34
Speaker 1: like breaking standard deviation. But you imagine on the lines though,
30:38
Speaker 1: were the Eagles, that would be amazing. It would be
30:41
Speaker 1: I would love to see it. So why wouldn't the
30:44
Speaker 1: Lions or Eagles do that? It makes as you think
30:47
Speaker 1: about it, it makes total sense. They are stick two picks,
30:51
Speaker 1: and they have two picks too, they're stacked along the
30:53
Speaker 1: offensive line. You take a flyer with one of those picks,
30:56
Speaker 1: You take a guy who could be a transcendent talent
30:58
Speaker 1: and make your team better immediately. Because you know these
31:01
Speaker 1: running backs the last four years at the most, look
31:03
Speaker 1: at Ezekiel Elliott, he was he gained eighteen hundred yards
31:07
Speaker 1: one year, the next year he's toasted. The Eagles are
31:10
Speaker 1: the most like analytical draft like draft team. There is
31:13
Speaker 1: where I think I saw a sweet where it's like
31:17
Speaker 1: it's O line, D line, that's all the how he does. Yeah,
31:20
Speaker 1: it's like, is Beijion good enough that they throw away
31:23
Speaker 1: the analytics, which Lion's at eighteen I think makes sense.
31:30
Speaker 1: That's like his sweet spot Eagles, Like he won't be
31:34
Speaker 1: there for the Eagles second pick at ten is another
31:36
Speaker 1: sweet spot. Yeah, I mean it'd be. He's that good.
31:43
Speaker 1: I'd love to see it. I don't see him making
31:45
Speaker 1: it out of the twenties. Ooh, I just don't. He's
31:48
Speaker 1: gonna end up on like the least fun team, like
31:50
Speaker 1: the Falcons or something like. It'll just ruin all the hype.
31:56
Speaker 1: Well then he'll just disappear forever, all right, Fellas, I
32:01
Speaker 1: think we got everything we need from the draft, at
32:02
Speaker 1: least for this week, until we get to it again
32:05
Speaker 1: in a couple of weeks. A reminder thanks to Travis Read,
32:09
Speaker 1: thanks to Luke Swain, Thanks to Matt Mitchell for producing
32:13
Speaker 1: the podcast. A reminder of a couple of things. One
32:16
Speaker 1: we are off next week. Reminder, we are off next week,
32:21
Speaker 1: so the next time you hear us, it will be
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