Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Crash Not Over?📉 Gareth Soloway Technical Analysis🚨

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Crash Not Over?📉 Gareth Soloway Technical Analysis🚨 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:00
Speaker 1: The crash is not over or is it today? I'm
0:02
Speaker 1: going to be breaking all of that down. We've got
0:04
Speaker 1: a special guest that will be riding with us. We're
0:06
Speaker 1: going to chart a whole ton of things today, so
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Speaker 1: all right. So before we get garethon, who's going to
1:09
Speaker 1: be coming in and joining us in a second, I
1:10
Speaker 1: want to play a clip real quick. Take a look.
1:13
Speaker 2: How you holding up, buddy? Yeah, Big Queen's down. I
1:16
Speaker 2: saw whatever happened to being a sore value. It turns
1:18
Speaker 2: out it was just a Ponzi scheme.
1:19
Speaker 3: My index funds have never performed better.
1:21
Speaker 2: Warren Buffett doesn't own any Crypto. Benjamin Graham spoke.
1:25
Speaker 3: About this most speculative assets. Eventually the bubble has to
1:28
Speaker 3: pomp and will it occur to you that Big Queen
1:29
Speaker 3: and Crypto are a complete scam and you are going
1:32
Speaker 3: to be broke for the rest of your life until
1:34
Speaker 3: you finally understand the value of investing in compounding interest
1:38
Speaker 3: in investing in ets. It's ets not BTC.
1:44
Speaker 1: All right. So the haters are out in force, and
1:48
Speaker 1: of course you can laugh with it or cry with it.
1:49
Speaker 1: I don't know which, but I wanted to bring on
1:51
Speaker 1: Garren Garrett sllaway, Gareth, how are you?
1:55
Speaker 2: I'm good Paul, how are you?
1:57
Speaker 1: Hey? Listen, I watched clip like that and then I
2:02
Speaker 1: look at the market and I go, you know, where
2:04
Speaker 1: are we right now? What is going on with us
2:07
Speaker 1: overall in terms of crypto? Obviously, everybody's waiting for the
2:10
Speaker 1: potential of clarity. I don't necessarily think that necessarily changes
2:14
Speaker 1: it in terms of how this really kind of plays
2:17
Speaker 1: out with Bitcoin when you look at the chart right now,
2:20
Speaker 1: Gareth and I want to play a clip from you
2:23
Speaker 1: later in the show, because I think you hit on
2:25
Speaker 1: some very interesting points. But when you look at the
2:27
Speaker 1: bitcoin chart right now, what are its defense positions currently?
2:33
Speaker 4: Yeah, So on the bitcoin chart, what we've seen here
2:36
Speaker 4: is that we were in this short term uptrend, but
2:40
Speaker 4: an up trend when it's this muted looks to be
2:45
Speaker 4: a bigger bear flag.
2:46
Speaker 2: Right. You have the bigger move down and.
2:48
Speaker 4: All this sideways chop inside of it, very similar to
2:52
Speaker 4: what we saw from the all time highs down and
2:54
Speaker 4: then this inside chop And that's really what is now
2:57
Speaker 4: playing out on bitcoin. When you play those pieces, you know,
3:01
Speaker 4: you played that little segment from that crazy whatever you
3:05
Speaker 4: want to call them.
3:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, to me, that actually makes.
3:09
Speaker 4: Me feel better about bitcoin. I'm a big contrarian. When
3:12
Speaker 4: they start spreading that fear, it usually means it's towards
3:16
Speaker 4: the end, not the beginning. I don't think we've quite
3:19
Speaker 4: reached a bottom yet on bitcoin. I think the big
3:22
Speaker 4: test is going to be when we get down to
3:24
Speaker 4: sixty thousand here on the chart, this low pivot down here,
3:27
Speaker 4: do we hold that, do we break? But ultimately again,
3:32
Speaker 4: my thesis would be is that bitcoin is not dead.
3:35
Speaker 4: It's definitely not a scam, but it has been a
3:39
Speaker 4: culprit for money rotation.
3:42
Speaker 2: Right.
3:42
Speaker 4: You know, Crypto was this great place you could go
3:46
Speaker 4: and make so much money because there was so much volatility,
3:49
Speaker 4: And now it's the semiconductors and the AI bubble trade,
3:53
Speaker 4: and so I think for me at least, that's an issue.
3:57
Speaker 1: Well, and I think you look at this right here,
4:00
Speaker 1: which is this was the largest liquidation event we had
4:03
Speaker 1: seen since ten ten. So these are the kind of
4:06
Speaker 1: things that continue to put more pressure into the market.
4:09
Speaker 1: Beyond that, you also look at it falling below the
4:12
Speaker 1: sixty six point. Where does this stop? Do you think
4:15
Speaker 1: where would be your bottom on bitcoin? At least in
4:18
Speaker 1: the near future.
4:20
Speaker 4: So in the very near future, we've actually tagged a
4:23
Speaker 4: short term technical support. Now it's only a minor level,
4:26
Speaker 4: but what we could see right here about sixty five
4:29
Speaker 4: five hundred, this little pivot here, this one here, and
4:32
Speaker 4: then this low right there. So this is your first
4:35
Speaker 4: minor test of technical support right here.
4:39
Speaker 2: We'll see if it holds.
4:40
Speaker 4: I think you might get a small bounce here, a
4:42
Speaker 4: little bit of a relief rally. But then I do
4:45
Speaker 4: think you have to expect to retest sixty thousand. Very
4:48
Speaker 4: rare when you get a bare flag that you don't
4:50
Speaker 4: at least test the low low of that move to
4:53
Speaker 4: the downside. Now, if it takes that out, you got
4:56
Speaker 4: to start talking about the fifty k level, the fifty
4:59
Speaker 4: k level down here on the charts, right here around
5:02
Speaker 4: forty eight forty nine thousand. I also like the fact
5:05
Speaker 4: that that would be a break of the even number.
5:07
Speaker 4: We do have this bigger head and shoulders here. I'm
5:09
Speaker 4: hopeful that that doesn't fully play out, because that would
5:12
Speaker 4: tell us thirty five thousand is a potential downside move.
5:16
Speaker 4: I guess the point is, though, when it all comes
5:17
Speaker 4: down to it, I look at bitcoin as this is
5:21
Speaker 4: part of the four year cycle, right, I mean, at
5:22
Speaker 4: this point, people used to say the four year cycle
5:25
Speaker 4: is dead. I don't think it is, and I also
5:28
Speaker 4: think that you just have to be down for this
5:30
Speaker 4: if you're in bitcoin. These are the drawdowns you deal with,
5:33
Speaker 4: you deal with the hate, all that stuff, and then
5:36
Speaker 4: eventually it goes to new all time highs and it's
5:39
Speaker 4: a offset of the fiat currency issues that the government
5:42
Speaker 4: is showing no signs of curbing.
5:45
Speaker 1: Well, that is the issue. I think the challenge is
5:47
Speaker 1: going to be really bitcoin gold. We'll talk about gold
5:50
Speaker 1: in the latter half of the show. But you also
5:53
Speaker 1: have to consider and for many of you maybe that
5:55
Speaker 1: are brand new and crypto over the last couple of years,
5:57
Speaker 1: you have to remember or go back and look at
6:00
Speaker 1: videos from twenty seventeen and twenty twenty one, in those
6:05
Speaker 1: bear market years and boom years, the kind of hate
6:10
Speaker 1: and fud that was really dispelled into crypto. It was
6:13
Speaker 1: very similar to what we're seeing now. The one difference, though, Gareth,
6:17
Speaker 1: that I would say that has me a little bit
6:19
Speaker 1: more concerned, is this right here, and that is Michael
6:22
Speaker 1: Sailor's strategy, which is disclosed. At first sale at three
6:25
Speaker 1: and a half years. It was a small sale, but
6:28
Speaker 1: the point is is that strategy is now holding right
6:31
Speaker 1: now sixty three billion at an average price of seventy
6:34
Speaker 1: five k, well under what the current price is. So
6:37
Speaker 1: he's got a weather through a storm. And of course
6:40
Speaker 1: the stretch product, which has been one of the ones
6:42
Speaker 1: that has been a little bit of the winner in
6:45
Speaker 1: terms of just general dividends being paid. If Sailor and
6:50
Speaker 1: Michael's strategy gets sideways on this, this could get a
6:53
Speaker 1: little crazy. Is is there a bottom signal with this
6:58
Speaker 1: sale by Sailor or do you think that was just
7:00
Speaker 1: you know, nothing to see here.
7:03
Speaker 4: No, you know, I don't know if it would be
7:05
Speaker 4: a bottom signal, but certainly if it was a bigger
7:08
Speaker 4: amount that they unloaded, I would take it more seriously.
7:11
Speaker 4: I think Michael Sailor has to now pay attention to
7:14
Speaker 4: the fact that, you know, he's supposed to be paying
7:16
Speaker 4: dividendsh type stuff on some of the debt, and so
7:20
Speaker 4: he has to manage his balance sheet accordingly, and that
7:22
Speaker 4: may mean occasionally selling. Now, if he starts selling, you know,
7:25
Speaker 4: a billion dollars of bitcoin or billions of dollars, that
7:30
Speaker 4: would be shocking, and I think that would cause a
7:32
Speaker 4: potential major crash in Bitcoin. Now my fear would be,
7:37
Speaker 4: I don't know where based on the debt of of
7:39
Speaker 4: micro strategies where the margin call type stuff would come
7:43
Speaker 4: into play. But if we ever got down to those levels,
7:46
Speaker 4: that could be catasclysmic. And again, you know this, this
7:49
Speaker 4: goes back to the whole idea of bitcoin. It was
7:51
Speaker 4: supposed to be something that was spread out among many,
7:54
Speaker 4: many people, very diversified and in a way, as great
7:59
Speaker 4: as Michael Sailor has been for the sector, he's put
8:04
Speaker 4: himself in a position that if he ever has to liquidate,
8:07
Speaker 4: he will seriously hurt Bitcoin for all of us.
8:11
Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure. When you look at the master Chart
8:14
Speaker 1: strategy in general and what they've been able to achieve
8:18
Speaker 1: in a fairly short time with some of these financial instruments.
8:21
Speaker 1: We had them talking about Stretcher here on the show
8:24
Speaker 1: not too long ago. What does strategies chart look like?
8:28
Speaker 1: And do you think there's any recovery point for it
8:31
Speaker 1: as a company.
8:32
Speaker 4: Yeah, And so the key is to be it's going
8:35
Speaker 4: to be tied to bitcoin, no doubt. You have this
8:37
Speaker 4: very distinct trend line at around one hundred and five
8:39
Speaker 4: dollars per share. We can see again over here we
8:43
Speaker 4: tagged this low in May.
8:45
Speaker 2: Of twenty twenty four, We.
8:47
Speaker 4: Then hit it again in August, and then we hit
8:48
Speaker 4: it again here in February of twenty twenty six. That
8:52
Speaker 4: as a technician, you really want that to hold, right
8:56
Speaker 4: if you need that to be a bottom. If that breaks,
8:58
Speaker 4: we're likely headed down about sixty eight to seventy dollars
9:02
Speaker 4: on strategy, and that would imply to me that bitcoin
9:05
Speaker 4: has broken sixty thousand and is probably approaching fifty thousand now.
9:10
Speaker 2: Again. Historically, remember bitcoin.
9:12
Speaker 4: Has had big drawdowns, so this might not be so crazy,
9:16
Speaker 4: but I think again, for all of us out there
9:18
Speaker 4: that chase all time highs, we always have to remember
9:21
Speaker 4: that with the bull markets, there's always a bear market
9:24
Speaker 4: and usually an opportunity to buy lower. So Strategy was
9:27
Speaker 4: buying north of one hundred thousand. I get that that
9:31
Speaker 4: he is in love with it, but you also have
9:33
Speaker 4: to manage it like a portfolio manager, and I don't
9:35
Speaker 4: think he did that very well.
9:38
Speaker 1: All right, So lots of things happening there with that
9:42
Speaker 1: would be a pretty big pullback obviously to correlate with
9:45
Speaker 1: where bitcoin could be at somewhere in the fifty k
9:48
Speaker 1: and a couple of the last night. I mean, we've
9:50
Speaker 1: seen him go into bitcoin in different areas like this,
9:54
Speaker 1: and this of course could open up even another area
9:57
Speaker 1: for him to be able to go in and buy
9:58
Speaker 1: another big bag of bitcoin below his current average, So
10:02
Speaker 1: that could change things in terms of a landscape for
10:05
Speaker 1: him as well. I want to jump over Tothereum trading
10:09
Speaker 1: at about eighteen hundred right now. This chart right here
10:12
Speaker 1: not looking good for Ethereum. Gareth, where would you put
10:16
Speaker 1: an entry order right now for Ethereum?
10:20
Speaker 4: Yeah, so we've seen Ethereum same sort of deal here.
10:23
Speaker 4: We've had this upward sloping consolidation we've now broken. You
10:27
Speaker 4: can see it's pretty sharp to the downside now approaching
10:30
Speaker 4: eighteen hundred. The first key level test is going to
10:34
Speaker 4: be that low that corresponds with the low of sixty
10:36
Speaker 4: thousand on bitcoin, and that's at around seventeen thirty. If
10:40
Speaker 4: that can hold, awesome, But if it breaks, it's likely
10:44
Speaker 4: headed down to about thirteen eighty five to fourteen hundred.
10:47
Speaker 4: I will be starting to nibble if it gets down
10:50
Speaker 4: in that range, There's no doubt about it. Again, I
10:52
Speaker 4: don't go all in on any single buy. I kind
10:54
Speaker 4: of you know, average dollar cost average to make sure
10:57
Speaker 4: that I don't miss lower prices, and oftentimes lower things
11:01
Speaker 4: go lower than I anticipate, But that would be kind
11:04
Speaker 4: of my zone here at this point. I would say
11:05
Speaker 4: anything honestly below fifteen hundred is a starting point to enter,
11:09
Speaker 4: but to expect it to go below fourteen hundred is
11:12
Speaker 4: not out of this realm based on what we're seeing here.
11:15
Speaker 1: All right, Bitcoin dominance crashing hard. Just hit a fifty
11:19
Speaker 1: eight day low. This is fifty eight point a five
11:22
Speaker 1: percent If for some of you who are listening to
11:25
Speaker 1: the audio side of this, you can kind of see
11:27
Speaker 1: the variation that we're seeing right now across all coins,
11:31
Speaker 1: especially in relationship to Bitcoin. It hit an eight month high,
11:34
Speaker 1: so alter up twenty three percent against bitcoin in the
11:37
Speaker 1: last twenty eight days. What do you make of this?
11:39
Speaker 1: I mean, there's a handful of winners here. If you
11:42
Speaker 1: just look at these hypes up thirty five, Injective thirty two,
11:45
Speaker 1: ICEP thirty one near z cash, and of course Algoran,
11:49
Speaker 1: A lot of AI plays here in the crypto market.
11:53
Speaker 2: Yep.
11:54
Speaker 1: What do you think about when you look at where
11:58
Speaker 1: hype is? Where do you think this continues to move
12:02
Speaker 1: up or has it maybe topped out where it is right.
12:05
Speaker 4: Now based on the chart, Hype actually still potentially has
12:09
Speaker 4: some more upside. There's this trend line going back to
12:12
Speaker 4: December of twenty twenty four where we connect it to
12:14
Speaker 4: the high here in October or September of twenty twenty five,
12:18
Speaker 4: and this trend line actually still shows that there's potential
12:21
Speaker 4: upside to about eighty two on hyper Liquid before it
12:26
Speaker 4: starts running out of steam. And so that's the one
12:28
Speaker 4: trend line I'm kind of focusing on.
12:30
Speaker 2: In general.
12:30
Speaker 4: I'm nibbling on a couple all coins, believe it or not,
12:33
Speaker 4: on the long side at this point, but this one
12:35
Speaker 4: would be if it got to eighty two on a
12:37
Speaker 4: technical analysis basis, that would be an extremely heavy resistance
12:42
Speaker 4: and I would look for a pullback on that.
12:44
Speaker 1: When you say you're nibbling on all coins, which ones.
12:48
Speaker 4: Yeah, So like for instance, Solana, I'm starting to just
12:51
Speaker 4: and again we're talking like a one tenth position size
12:53
Speaker 4: so that I have many many more ADS, but we're
12:56
Speaker 4: coming down into this former low zone. And I do
12:59
Speaker 4: think I think that what's getting my attention in the
13:02
Speaker 4: all coin market, and there's there's there's a one there's
13:04
Speaker 4: actually two main thesis points here. Is that you know,
13:08
Speaker 4: you look at Hbar.
13:09
Speaker 2: Hbar just the other day, this.
13:11
Speaker 4: Past weekend had to move up of about forty to
13:14
Speaker 4: fifty percent on the chart.
13:15
Speaker 2: I mean, yes, it's come right back in.
13:17
Speaker 4: But we're seeing the start of either short covering or
13:22
Speaker 4: you know, a little bit of buying pressure coming in
13:24
Speaker 4: here on some of these all coins. And you mentioned
13:26
Speaker 4: a couple others near Protocol, a couple of these others,
13:29
Speaker 4: they are showing signs of life. And I'm taking that
13:32
Speaker 4: into account and saying, all right, listen, there might be
13:35
Speaker 4: another ten to twenty percent downside, but if the upsides
13:38
Speaker 4: one hundred percent, do I want to start nibbling on
13:41
Speaker 4: a few of these coins. And so, I mean even
13:44
Speaker 4: chain Link has come down significantly just in the last day,
13:47
Speaker 4: Avalanche has come down some of these other ones as well, XMR,
13:51
Speaker 4: And I think that that's something that's getting my attention
13:54
Speaker 4: where I start to put a little bit of money
13:56
Speaker 4: aside into these plays.
13:58
Speaker 2: The other side is that.
14:00
Speaker 4: I truly believe that there's been a massive money rotation
14:04
Speaker 4: into semiconductors, right. I mean, think about people that were
14:07
Speaker 4: buying all coins thinking they were going to make a
14:09
Speaker 4: ten x. Well, it turned out that if you were
14:11
Speaker 4: in a lot of semiconductors in the last two months,
14:13
Speaker 4: you made it three to five x. And if those
14:16
Speaker 4: semiconductors come back in at these levels on some of
14:20
Speaker 4: these cryptos, is there even one percent of that money?
14:23
Speaker 4: Because if you take one percent of what's in the semiconductors,
14:26
Speaker 4: it's like hundreds of billions of dollars at this point exactly,
14:29
Speaker 4: and you rotate that into all coins and you could
14:31
Speaker 4: see hundred percent moving all coins.
14:33
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, and I think what we're seeing right now
14:36
Speaker 1: on the AI side of things was it was interesting
14:38
Speaker 1: because I caught a clip on your channel. I want
14:40
Speaker 1: to play it for our audience. It was in reference
14:42
Speaker 1: to an AI bubble in game and your analysis on it.
14:46
Speaker 1: Let me play that clip real quick.
14:48
Speaker 4: This is the total the top twenty five AI stocks
14:52
Speaker 4: and their market cap, and if you combine those, what
14:56
Speaker 4: is it? It's thirty one point five trillion. What's the
14:59
Speaker 4: total rest of the market cap of the entire market?
15:02
Speaker 4: Every stock out there totals forty four point three trillion.
15:07
Speaker 4: This now is the highest concentration ever in the market
15:13
Speaker 4: of any one sector in the dot com era, it
15:16
Speaker 4: got to about thirty seven percent or so. It's very
15:21
Speaker 4: similar to the market seeming to be wanting to be
15:25
Speaker 4: held up into these IPOs. Now, next week we're going
15:28
Speaker 4: to get the big one SpaceX and then literally a
15:32
Speaker 4: week or two later, probably anthropic than the open AI
15:37
Speaker 4: and institutions do not want the market selling ahead of
15:40
Speaker 4: those they are selling more than anything to the retail trader.
15:45
Speaker 4: In this ipo, insiders like employees, do not have a
15:49
Speaker 4: lock up period either, which I think is very very interesting.
15:54
Speaker 1: All right, so insiders no lockup period, that's an interesting situation.
15:58
Speaker 1: We're seeing more of this flowing in. I'll talk about
16:00
Speaker 1: anthropic in a minute. But Gareth, does this look like
16:04
Speaker 1: it's overbought right now? Or does many of the people
16:07
Speaker 1: I talked to you about this having similarity to Dot
16:10
Speaker 1: Calm era, they simply say no, it's completely different, just
16:14
Speaker 1: because of the revenues that we're seeing back then, of
16:17
Speaker 1: which I can verify most of the companies that failed
16:20
Speaker 1: in that Dot bomb era were companies that one had
16:23
Speaker 1: zero business model and in most cases had zero revenue.
16:26
Speaker 1: It was all blue sky. But yet we're publicly traded
16:29
Speaker 1: companies with the idea that they were going to become something.
16:32
Speaker 1: These companies are actually running and operating. Granted, some of
16:36
Speaker 1: them are still taking a lot of equity and it's
16:39
Speaker 1: a lot of fundraising. But what's different about this to
16:42
Speaker 1: where some pundits would say this is a super cycle
16:47
Speaker 1: that we haven't seen before.
16:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, and so you're right about that.
16:50
Speaker 4: I mean, that's the one angle that is continuing to
16:53
Speaker 4: push the bubble higher, is that you actually have real
16:55
Speaker 4: earnings from the NVIDIAs of the world and other names
16:58
Speaker 4: like that. What I would say is that you basically
17:02
Speaker 4: have the same mentality. You're seeing investors flock into these
17:06
Speaker 4: to the point where hedge funds are more exposed to
17:09
Speaker 4: these names, to the point where they only have three
17:11
Speaker 4: percent cash left on their balance sheet, which is almost
17:14
Speaker 4: unprecedented in a hedge funds portfolio. And they're way overloaded,
17:19
Speaker 4: retail investors way overloaded. And it's all based on the
17:23
Speaker 4: assumption that margins will always stay where they are, meaning
17:28
Speaker 4: competition will never come, which we know is false, and
17:31
Speaker 4: that ultimately there will never be a point where cap X,
17:35
Speaker 4: which is now approaching a trillion dollars a year, will
17:38
Speaker 4: ever slow down.
17:39
Speaker 2: What we know is.
17:40
Speaker 4: Meta went from a company that was printing cash to
17:43
Speaker 4: now a net debt company because they're spending so much money.
17:48
Speaker 4: At some point, Meta is going to say, hey, we've
17:50
Speaker 4: built this out, We're only going to spend fifty billion
17:53
Speaker 4: this year on cap X.
17:55
Speaker 2: When that happens, it is going to be.
17:58
Speaker 4: An earthquake of epic portion in the AI sector. I
18:02
Speaker 4: honestly have no idea when that will happen, but there
18:05
Speaker 4: will be a drawdown. And let's be fair, Cisco Systems,
18:09
Speaker 4: which by the way, is hitting new all time highs
18:11
Speaker 4: now that was one of the biggest dot com plays,
18:13
Speaker 4: and it's still dropped eighty five percent during the collapse
18:17
Speaker 4: in the dot com era. So again, even a networking
18:21
Speaker 4: stock that made money back then still ultimately fell eighty
18:25
Speaker 4: five percent.
18:26
Speaker 1: Well, and that's the concern I have right now is
18:29
Speaker 1: the amount of those companies are they actually implementing the
18:33
Speaker 1: growth Because you mentioned even in your clip, is that
18:35
Speaker 1: most of these are centered around only a handful of
18:38
Speaker 1: companies that are controlling that top forty two percent of
18:41
Speaker 1: what we're seeing the SMP. So do we end up
18:45
Speaker 1: maybe in a better spot for AI with only a
18:48
Speaker 1: handful of companies excelling and consuming those supply problems, which
18:53
Speaker 1: is the issue. You know, chips and semiconductors are a
18:56
Speaker 1: big problem right.
18:57
Speaker 2: Now, I think you do over right. I mean, they're
19:01
Speaker 2: just like Google.
19:02
Speaker 4: You know, we've had other search engines out there, but
19:05
Speaker 4: Google really took the cake and is the main one
19:08
Speaker 4: most of us use. But at the same time, you know,
19:12
Speaker 4: you had other ones that attempted to and they just
19:14
Speaker 4: kind of fell by the wayside.
19:16
Speaker 2: I mean Netscape, I mean, I mean you.
19:18
Speaker 4: Go on and on, there's all these other browsers that
19:19
Speaker 4: were out there aol. I mean, don't even remember what
19:23
Speaker 4: really happened to that. But but I think again, it's
19:25
Speaker 4: like you come down to this situation where, yes, if
19:29
Speaker 4: we have three great winners, that's great, but I think
19:32
Speaker 4: the markets will tank when the other fifty that don't
19:36
Speaker 4: survive come crashing down. So again, you will have winners,
19:40
Speaker 4: but the losers, I think are being priced way too
19:43
Speaker 4: high and that will be a big shock to the markets.
19:46
Speaker 1: Okay, all right with that statement, I'm going to bring
19:49
Speaker 1: in a clip from ed Zeitron because he's talking about
19:52
Speaker 1: something that has some similarities. It's related to SpaceX. Let
19:55
Speaker 1: me play this one for you.
19:57
Speaker 5: When we see these s ones. I think it's going
19:59
Speaker 5: to be kind of a massacre. Especially the SpaceX IPO
20:03
Speaker 5: and open Aion Anthropic should not be allowed to go public.
20:06
Speaker 5: They are dangerous, lossy companies that are going to be
20:09
Speaker 5: added to indices that will sink.
20:11
Speaker 3: For one case, just because a company doesn't make money
20:14
Speaker 3: doesn't mean it shouldn't go public.
20:16
Speaker 2: Just because a company is not profitable doesn't mean it
20:18
Speaker 2: shouldn't go public.
20:19
Speaker 5: Let me reframe this then, I don't think these companies
20:22
Speaker 5: will survive.
20:23
Speaker 2: They're doing exit liquidity.
20:24
Speaker 5: For venture capital, and I think that these are dangerous,
20:27
Speaker 5: unstable companies that have faced basically no real scrutiny for
20:32
Speaker 5: most of the years of their investment. You have journalists
20:35
Speaker 5: and analysts who are actively cheering them on. This is
20:38
Speaker 5: a dangerous precedent, and it's a dangerous thing for retail
20:41
Speaker 5: investors who are being conned by this.
20:45
Speaker 1: All right, So this is something that we've questioned for
20:47
Speaker 1: a while now. Is SpaceX really a good IPO for
20:51
Speaker 1: the markets if this becomes exit liquidity into retail, Because
20:55
Speaker 1: essentially that's what you're talking about here is who are
20:58
Speaker 1: they going to get the money from. It's going to
21:00
Speaker 1: be coming from retail. And you already see these nuances
21:03
Speaker 1: of even what Elon's talking about of trying to make
21:07
Speaker 1: you know, certain shares available for retail, you know, because
21:10
Speaker 1: you haven't been able to get access to it in
21:12
Speaker 1: the past, and now you have all these rules being changed,
21:16
Speaker 1: so it allows them to go into these four one,
21:18
Speaker 1: which is people that don't have any choice to it
21:22
Speaker 1: right in it. You know, it's going right into your
21:23
Speaker 1: four to one K. That's the thing I don't agree
21:26
Speaker 1: with right now? Where do you put Tesla in this mix?
21:30
Speaker 1: Right now? How would you chart Tesla as it plays
21:33
Speaker 1: into what's happening with SpaceX.
21:35
Speaker 4: Yeah, and this is interesting on Tesla because the daily
21:38
Speaker 4: chart on Tesla is coiling in what we would call
21:41
Speaker 4: a wedge pattern, right and the question is is which
21:44
Speaker 4: way does it break and does it break to the
21:47
Speaker 4: upside or does it break to the downside? Now right now,
21:50
Speaker 4: it's towards the upper end of this little trend line here,
21:52
Speaker 4: but this is certainly the lower trend line is the
21:55
Speaker 4: one that if it breaks that it's in a lot
21:57
Speaker 4: of trouble, right I mean here, if we break this one,
21:59
Speaker 4: we go back to the all time highs. You know,
22:01
Speaker 4: it's about ten percent upside. You break this one to
22:04
Speaker 4: the downside and there is massive move, a massive move
22:07
Speaker 4: to the downside. And I think the other thing you
22:09
Speaker 4: have to keep in mind is you know where is
22:11
Speaker 4: the money coming from? This is something I've talked about
22:13
Speaker 4: with my traders. Every day semiconductors are up, there's another
22:17
Speaker 4: half a trillion dollars in market cap gained, and I
22:20
Speaker 4: would argue that where's that money coming from?
22:23
Speaker 2: Where?
22:23
Speaker 4: I mean, I know that the eighty percent of Americans
22:26
Speaker 4: are struggling right now because gas prices are up. We're
22:29
Speaker 4: seeing prices at pretty much every place is up based
22:32
Speaker 4: on inflation. They don't have the disposable income. Yet we
22:36
Speaker 4: still see these type of games. And now you're introducing
22:38
Speaker 4: a one point seventy five trillion dollar IPO that they're
22:41
Speaker 4: trying to dump a large chunk on the public. Then
22:44
Speaker 4: anthropic than open AI. Where is all this money coming from?
22:48
Speaker 4: I mean again, that's that's got to be a concern
22:52
Speaker 4: and what we've seen historically, and I still remember this
22:54
Speaker 4: in two thousand and nine, I was, you know, early
22:56
Speaker 4: on in my career, Blackstone came public and it was
23:00
Speaker 4: the biggest IPO at the time, and it literally marked
23:03
Speaker 4: the top on the markets. And I go back to
23:05
Speaker 4: what I said in that clip that you played, is
23:08
Speaker 4: that oftentimes they will keep the markets up, right Goldman, Sachs, Blackrock.
23:13
Speaker 4: They're bringing these companies public. They can't let the markets
23:16
Speaker 4: drop ahead of them. They need the investor excitement so
23:20
Speaker 4: that the investors will buy that and become the exit
23:23
Speaker 4: liquidity before they let the markets collapse. If they let
23:26
Speaker 4: the markets collapse, now they're going to be too scared
23:28
Speaker 4: to buy it. Retail will be too scared.
23:30
Speaker 1: Yeah, well for sure. I mean you look at just
23:34
Speaker 1: here's Micron. That's a two hundred and forty two percent
23:37
Speaker 1: gain right there. Since what is that March.
23:41
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's Micron, and that's a trillion dollar plus company.
23:44
Speaker 1: Now, yeah, this is itzing because I mean you got
23:48
Speaker 1: to look at the historical chart on Micron, guys, just
23:50
Speaker 1: so you understand, this has been flat for this company
23:53
Speaker 1: pretty much its entire life, I feel like, and it
23:57
Speaker 1: has been one of those companies which has been it's
24:00
Speaker 1: a utility to a utilitarian company. It's not a high flyer.
24:04
Speaker 1: It supplies secondary chips to the market, which of course
24:08
Speaker 1: is getting exploded because of what we're seeing on the
24:10
Speaker 1: primary chips and the built out of these fabs. You
24:14
Speaker 1: typically see these companies fly when these fabs are opening
24:17
Speaker 1: for chip processing, which has been you know, the resurgence.
24:22
Speaker 1: I just yeah, it's getting a little bit unusual in
24:26
Speaker 1: terms of how this plays out. Where would you put okay,
24:28
Speaker 1: so would you give me a yes no on whether
24:33
Speaker 1: or not SpaceX should be allowed to go public because
24:37
Speaker 1: of its impact on the market? Would you say yes
24:40
Speaker 1: or no? In your trader?
24:42
Speaker 4: I mean, I mean I would generally say that in
24:45
Speaker 4: the world we live in today, they should be allowed
24:48
Speaker 4: to go public, maybe with some more guardrails.
24:50
Speaker 2: I'm not sure that I agree that.
24:52
Speaker 4: You know, they're talking about these rule changes that allow
24:54
Speaker 4: it could go right into the indexes right off of that.
24:57
Speaker 4: I think that's probably a bad scenario. I don't know
25:00
Speaker 4: if you remember, but when Facebook went public, it opened
25:03
Speaker 4: and went straight down for a month or two. And again,
25:07
Speaker 4: imagine SpaceX at a one point five to seventy five
25:10
Speaker 4: trillion dollar valuation dropping twenty or thirty percent right after
25:15
Speaker 4: an IPO. That could be hugely negative to the markets.
25:19
Speaker 4: And so you do run these risks. It's better to
25:21
Speaker 4: let a company come public, and I think that's fair
25:24
Speaker 4: to go public, But then let it see how it
25:26
Speaker 4: performs before it gets added to these indexes or these
25:29
Speaker 4: pension funds, et cetera, before we.
25:31
Speaker 1: Get into gold. I just want to get your opinion
25:33
Speaker 1: on XRP. Some people targeting XRP toward a buck which
25:38
Speaker 1: it's been holding here recently around the one twenty mark.
25:43
Speaker 1: Where do you stand on XRP right now? Is this
25:45
Speaker 1: a buy for you? Or are you holding right now?
25:48
Speaker 2: Yeah?
25:49
Speaker 4: So I do have a little bit of XRP here,
25:51
Speaker 4: small position. It's coming down towards this low pivot around
25:55
Speaker 4: this one to fourteen level. What I'm really focused in
25:57
Speaker 4: on is this trend line here which goes back to
26:00
Speaker 4: the twenty twenty five July high, connects through the high
26:03
Speaker 4: in October and then again through the high in January
26:06
Speaker 4: of twenty twenty six and again in May. And really
26:08
Speaker 4: what I'm hoping here is that we get some sort
26:11
Speaker 4: of reflex, either money rotation back into crypto or the
26:15
Speaker 4: Clarity Act maybe helps. I don't know if it will
26:18
Speaker 4: or there's some positive And if we can get a
26:20
Speaker 4: breakout above this one thirty three level, then you've got
26:23
Speaker 4: some serious legs on XRP to the upside. Now, it
26:26
Speaker 4: hasn't broken out yet, so I'm jumping the gun a
26:28
Speaker 4: little bit by being in, but I do want to
26:31
Speaker 4: just give it a little bit of my money to
26:34
Speaker 4: see if we can get that breakout.
26:36
Speaker 1: Well, there may be some bullish news coming on XRP.
26:39
Speaker 1: I won't go into all of that yet. We'll drop
26:40
Speaker 1: a video on that for you guys, but some interesting
26:43
Speaker 1: things brewing around Ripple and XRP. Last thing I want
26:47
Speaker 1: to hit on real quick is gold. It's overtaking US treasuries.
26:51
Speaker 1: Top basically the global reserve asset right now is gold.
26:57
Speaker 1: You look at where gold is today, many people would say,
27:00
Speaker 1: all right, gold has officially won over the bitcoin argument
27:04
Speaker 1: if you just look at the history of it. But
27:06
Speaker 1: if you go look at the chart, it's pretty much
27:09
Speaker 1: somewhat flat over the last you know, three four months.
27:12
Speaker 1: The question is where does it go from here?
27:15
Speaker 4: Yeah, and you have this amazing parallel which goes to
27:18
Speaker 4: the all time high and then that first corrective low
27:21
Speaker 4: here and then we obviously rallied up into this pivot
27:25
Speaker 4: high and same thing and it forms this beautiful parallel
27:28
Speaker 4: channel and then you're right, you know, if you look
27:30
Speaker 4: at gold over the last three to four weeks, it's
27:33
Speaker 4: almost done nothing. If I throw on my fifty moving
27:37
Speaker 4: average and the two hundred moving average, look, it's literally
27:40
Speaker 4: getting sandwiched between those two moving averages. And so as
27:43
Speaker 4: a trader, I'm looking at this and I'm saying, Okay,
27:46
Speaker 4: which way does it break? Does it break the two
27:48
Speaker 4: hundred to the downside, because if it does, it's going
27:50
Speaker 4: down to thirty six to thirty five hundred. If it
27:52
Speaker 4: breaks the upside, you have a chance to break out
27:55
Speaker 4: above forty eight hundred and maybe retest the highs now.
27:58
Speaker 4: Please keep in mind my long term gold projections are
28:03
Speaker 4: much much higher. But I still think there's one more
28:07
Speaker 4: big flush out on gold that has to weed out
28:10
Speaker 4: all the weekends that bought back in you know, December
28:14
Speaker 4: January of this year when they thought it was easy money.
28:17
Speaker 4: All Right, gold is not easy money. It's it's it's
28:20
Speaker 4: it's a store of value, and it's being treated more
28:23
Speaker 4: like a risk asset at this point, and that has
28:26
Speaker 4: to be flushed out. So those investors probably have to
28:28
Speaker 4: be flushed out by some sort of downside flush.
28:30
Speaker 2: I'm looking at a thirty five.
28:31
Speaker 4: Hundred and thirty six hundred dollars price target before I
28:34
Speaker 4: start stepping in for long term holdings.
28:36
Speaker 1: Okay, long term around thirty five thirty six. Where would
28:39
Speaker 1: you put the long term outlook of gold in twenty thirty?
28:44
Speaker 4: Wow, way, I think you're I think you're north of
28:48
Speaker 4: ten thousand again and again. That's that's it's it's always
28:51
Speaker 4: hard to project out that far in the future. But
28:53
Speaker 4: I do think that we listen, we've seen no and
28:56
Speaker 4: this is the same for bitcoin. Right There's been no
28:58
Speaker 4: fiscal responsibility in the government. It's just, you know, more
29:01
Speaker 4: of the same. Everything that was promised is not being
29:03
Speaker 4: delivered on. In terms of spending cuts. We're back in
29:06
Speaker 4: wars that are costing us money. You know, how do
29:12
Speaker 4: you look and say, let me not have any gold
29:15
Speaker 4: in my portfolio or even bitcoin. If you're a bitcoin believer,
29:19
Speaker 4: you have to have a little exposure there, just to
29:22
Speaker 4: be be safe. Really, it's my insurance policy. It's how
29:24
Speaker 4: I sleep better at night.
29:25
Speaker 1: There you go, all right, you guys, jump over to
29:27
Speaker 1: Verified Investing. You can catch mister Gareth's alloway over there.
29:31
Speaker 1: Learn the trade, learn the charts, master the markets. I
29:34
Speaker 1: like that. I like that slogan. You have there. Learn
29:37
Speaker 1: the trade, learn the charts, master the markets. Garet, thanks
29:39
Speaker 1: for coming in today. We appreciate it.
29:41
Speaker 4: Thanks so much for having me, Paul, take care.
29:49
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29:52
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29:56
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