Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Banks Just Told Big Clients to SELL THIS and Buy Everything Else + Stock Market News 31 January 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Banks Just Told Big Clients to SELL THIS and Buy Everything Else + Stock Market News 31 January 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: I want to run you through the following because I think it really matters.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Why does it really matter?
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Well, I've got some serious concerns about NVIDIA, and I'm not the only one.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Bankers are talking about it.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Broker rich desks are talking about it.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: Yesterday and today.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: I want to show you also how to spot breakout stocks.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: That's in second, and then number third Apple earnings Big one, biggest stock out there right, insanely important.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: And the earnings are well, at least on the face of it, or maybe not on the face of it.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: On the face of it they might be all right, but underneath it there is a bit of a disaster.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: That's the word, isn't it?
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Got to pour myself some more pomegranate juice to make it through this, and I want you to understand that because it's important.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Even if you just have an ETF on the QQQ or the S&P, this is important.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: And then I want to show you the actual data points that literally nobody else understands out there or looks at out there, and they'll show you why I'm bullish on the market overall.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: But there are a couple of outliers here.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: And then I'm going to give you my top trade idea for the day.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Does that sound good?
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Anybody else want my top trade idea for the day?
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: So, like Elliot, my friend, I'm very, very happy to see that.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Started your trading journey six weeks ago, you're up $10,000 with a 10% return.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Amazing, my friend.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: That makes me very, very happy.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: That's precisely why I share what I share here and don't just trade on my own in a dark basement, leave the trade idea to the end to keep us hanging.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: I'll do exactly that, as you ask, then.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, please, yes, please, okay, brilliant, okay.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: So we'll cover all of that, shall we?
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Let's do that, let's get cracking.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: So you lot, you are the retail investors.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: I am too.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: You're wondering why.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: I was a minute late.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: By the way, I was chasing a cat out of this studio, um, who I knew.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Would you let him in here?
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: He chewed the wires on the back of the computer.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: That's the kind of kitten he is.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Retail investors have never bought more nvidia than the last two days or so.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: It is buying a freaking dip like there is no tomorrow.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: A half a billion in net inflows record ever, and you might think that's very positive.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: But is it right?
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Is it.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Is it really?
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Who thinks nvidia is going to go to the moon?
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: Who thinks this is the greatest stock ever?
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: Anybody think this is the greatest stock ever?
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Put a one in the chat if you think this is the greatest stock ever.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: So people are pointing towards this.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: I'm seeing this a lot bounded about from pretty smart traders.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: We're saying every time we got one of these candles that looked like this and would have been it's.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: It's essentially a hammer candle.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we just had one yesterday.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: A couple of people say yes, ryan is a bit cautious, pascal doesn't agree.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Okay, a bit of some zeros, some halves, and so some, some of you are a bit cautious there.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: They're saying that every time that happens, you know NVIDIA rallies massively and it is entirely possible.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: But let me explain to you why I am cautious on this stock right now.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: It doesn't mean I'm bearish forever on the business, but I just posted this on X I'm starting to turn bearish on NVIDIA.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: 20% of revenue comes from Singapore.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: If I could spell Singapore, I wouldn't have been a banker, I would have had a real job and every major Nvidia client is working on own chip designs, which is true, right, meta, amazon, microsoft, everybody.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: So the question, therefore, is have these crazy margins that they have?
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Because they really have crazy margins.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: They have like software margins for a hardware company and if you think they're through, it's much harder to do that when you're manufacturing something, even when you outsource the manufacturing.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: What am I missing?
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: And this is the headline from Bloomberg today saying the US is probing if DeepSeek, the Chinese AI company, got Nvidia chips from firms in Singapore.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Singapore is 20% of revenue for Nvidia.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Now, singapore is an amazing place.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: It's a lovely place, really lovely people and all of that.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: But have you seen it on a map, singapore?
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: Right, it's here.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: It is teeny, tiny and tiny and teeny.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Six million people live there and if you zoom out, it is I mean, it's a pin drop.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Right, it's a tiny little city punched above its weight.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: It's true, that's it, this is it, this is all there is to it.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: It's sort of you know half of new york or something, but it is absolutely ridiculously, infinitiously small and they have no major ai hyperscaler supercomputer to speak of.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: So what's happening to these 20 of revenue chips?
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Right, and whoever's saying that Jensen's meeting Trump today, You're precisely right.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: The Donald is meeting Jensen today at the White House to discuss export restrictions.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Now, I'm not accusing any of anything, but it is very, very hard to control where your stuff goes.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: You're willing to sell your wares.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: The people who are willing to buy them will end up with them.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: It's a bit like arms they always end up in the people who are willing to pay the most for it, no matter how you try to restrict it, but this is potentially a downside.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: The second thing that Trump is not going to like at all about Nvidia this is a Taiwanese setup.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: So Taiwan has this agreement whereby they manufacture the latest generation of chips in Taiwan, and Taiwan only.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: So the factories that are making chips in the US or in Europe or anywhere else, they're making an old chip.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: They're never making the latest nanometer chip.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: And Trump, I think, is going to ask the question why the heck are we paying for all your chips?
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: Why the heck are we bailing out Taiwan, if you then don't give us the technology, even though you're an American business, and you refuse to manufacture the latest technology and bring it to the US, I don't think this is a conversation that NVIDIA is going to win.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: So this is going to be a bit of a challenge.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: So secondly, the deep seek thing.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Whether it's true or not, there is an element there that AI is going to get more efficient, so we're not going to need this forever more chips.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: It's still going to need a ton of chips.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Meta said that yesterday and Microsoft said that.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: You know they're still going to buy a ton of chips and we are still an amazing, huge business.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: But it is possible in my view and I think it's a risk that margins, the ability to charge premium prices and these growth rates might have peaked and that isn't brilliant for the stock price.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: If you look at the stock price this morning, it is down half a percent, not a lot, neither up nor down, but it isn't absolutely brilliant.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: And if we look at the chart here and I'm not saying it's all over or anything like that, I'm not one of those fatalists, extremists, but I'm just saying I see a lot of risk here and I see a lot of people buying this dip and I'm just saying, hmm, I'm not so sure about this.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: So not a lot happening here, right, despite that hammer candle.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: But watch out.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: If we get a big volume today and we start to fill this gap upwards, then OK, then the market's loving us.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: Maybe Trump's going to come up with a deal that's amazingly sweet for NVIDIA.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: It's all possible.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: But we all sell NVIDIA.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: Felix, bices, frankie, no, that's not how I roll, my friend, that wouldn't happen.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: I would tell you if I'm buying it.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: I don't own any NVIDIA, by the way, don't own any at all.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: So you don't want to say Spemus, my thumbnails, my thumbnails and me.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: We have what do you call it?
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Split personalities.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: The thumbnails please, whom they please you lot on YouTube.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: People always say it's the algorithm, you're only for the algorithm.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: No, the reality is human psychology is that Our thumbnails compete with all the other thumbnails out there.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: Everybody makes crazy thumbnails.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: Therefore, if you don't make crazy thumbnails, nobody views your content.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: I think our videos here are anything but crazy.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: They're usually fairly detailed and in-depth and perhaps on a little bit of a boring side.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: My intention is to educate you, not to you.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: You know, super entertained I.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: I try a little bit to entertain you.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Mostly that isn't intention, intentional.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: But, frankie, okay, I appreciate your joke that.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Um.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I would be a little cautious on the video.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: Just be a little cautious on it and, you know, maybe set up some sort of hedge or something.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: I also want to announce officially now because this is now an official announcement an official product launch in Trade Vision, the software that we make.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: We officially have our breakout indicator out.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: This is a trade I bought last week on the breakout notification that I get by email every single day.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: I bought it here and we're trading right now here, which is about 11% up, which is not too shabby in a week right Would I have spotted DXP Enterprises?
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: No, I wouldn't have, because I didn't know this company existed.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: But I bought it and we're making money at the moment.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: It's looking very, very good.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Again, I'm not telling you to buy it, but if you want to spot these breakouts and we literally scan thousands of stocks twice a day for my criteria then I think this is insanely helpful and it is insanely cheap.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: In fact, we throw it in free of charge for anybody who joins right now.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: And well, yeah, felixrensselaercom, slash Trade Vision and you can get it.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: See it every day Now.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Will you make lots of money instantly if you follow all of our breakouts?
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: No, I still think it's risk management that actually makes us money in the long run and understanding a little bit why and how.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: But it's a screener.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: That's how I see it.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: So I use it as a screener.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: I'm not buying every single one of those trades, but I usually buy some of those trades most days.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: And, of course, an answer to you guys in the coaching community but yeah, I'm finding it super, super useful.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: Logan says great tool.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Either way, precisely that's the intention.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Was it not official before Logan?
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: No, it wasn't official.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: It wasn't official.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: It's never official until we officially announce it.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: Now it's officially announced.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: Therefore it is now official.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Could we be any sillier today?
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: So head over to phoenixprincipalcom, get yourself a free trial and you'll see today's breakouts, which are on the breakout tab there.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: If I show them to you, then there won't be any incentive for you to click on it, right, and then you'll know what they are.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: So do check that out, out, and they hope it gives you tremendous value.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: If it doesn't, then you cancel it before the end of the trial and then it doesn't cost you a dollar or a dime or even a cent.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: Infodig has given you some ideas.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: Item numero deux is how do we see the breakout indicator?
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Two ways of seeing it.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: On this Trends AI chart here, the one in the top right you click on breakout or on any of our stock charts.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: There is a little button here which says breakout and then you can go back and you can look for one.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: So the last nvidia breakout we called was here at 110, which a reasonably good call.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Now we would have exited somewhere up here at least I would have done.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: But yeah, that was a pretty good call and I'm sure there were some others.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: If you go back far enough, yeah, you see here in the sort of 20, 30 zone so you can toggle them on on the chart or you can look at the daily screener.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Fox Gaming.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Thanks very much for putting the link in here.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: Fox is amazing.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: Should we give a round of applause for Fox Gaming, our voluntary?
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: Well, I was going to say something that was so inappropriate I stopped myself from saying it.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Anyway, I appreciate you very much for keeping the riffraff out.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: Okay, here's another one Apple biggest stock out there, the number one holding of pretty much every investor out there who owns ETFs, because it's the number one thing in all your ETFs, pretty much.