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Elon Musk said; We're all alien!!! · Elon Musk Thinking

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So what I was, what I'm gonna go through to tonight is the overall,
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overall sort of path to making life multiplanetary. So we're doing a lot
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of good things at SpaceX. I mean, Starlink is incredible providing connectivity throughout
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the world and also you know, paying for a lot of what we're doing
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here. And Falcon nine is the primary left launch vehicle for Earth, just
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doing more non SpaceX launches than anything else. And but Starship is what is
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well Starship. Starship is the first design of a rocket that is actually capable
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of making life multiplanetary, where success is one of the possible outcomes. Uh,
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no rocket before this has had the potential to extend life to another planet.
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And and I'll sort of wax esoteric here for a minute because this may
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sound sort of unusual, but when you think about the question of where are
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the aliens, which I get asked a lot, this is like the Fermi
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paradox, where are the aliens? And I've not seen any evidence that there
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are aliens on Earth. A lot of people think there are aliens on Earth,
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and I'm like, great, I'd like to meet one, you know.
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For a while there, when I was getting my green card and never
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gets an alien registration card. I'm like, okay, but this question of
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where the aliens, I think a very profound one because I'm aware of no
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evidence of aliens whatsoever, which means that I think we're probably alone. And
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if you look at the history of Earth, like how long has Earth been
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around? Assuming that physics is correct, the universe is about thirteen point eight
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billion years old. Earth is about four and a half billion years old.
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When you think about how old is civilization, I think the right measuring point
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for civilization in my view, or a good measuring point, would be the
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advent of writing. So the first writing is generally considered to be the ancient
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Sumerians. Where are they now? They died out, but about fifty five
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hundred years ago was archaic pre cuneiform. In fact, I suggest it's like
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an interesting rabbit hole to read about the history of writing. So if you
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consider, say, like, okay, civilization, I think if you don't
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have writing, you kind of need writing for civilization. So it's only been
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around for like a little of a five thousand years out of four and a
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half billion years that Earth has been around. And the thirteen point eight billion
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years of the universe, so we're all of human civilization is basically the blink
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of an eye. It's like it's a fraction, it's almost it's nothing.
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And I think that that probably means that that consciousness is incredibly rare and perhaps
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fleeting. It may not last for very long, because otherwise we would I
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think we would have seen aliens, some kind of sign of aliens. I
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think the most likely explanation is that consciousness is so rare that and does that
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consciousness actually extend to another planet? Does that consciousness extend to another star system?
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I mean, ultimately, if we're able to become a space bearing civilization,
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a multiplanet species, and ultimately a multi stellars species, and go out
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there and explore all these star systems, I think we may find that there
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are many long dead one planet civilizations. And as you've heard me say before,
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we don't want to be one of those lame one planet civilizations. I
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mean, we want to be a multiplanet civilization, ultimately, be a multi
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stellar civilization, be out there among the stars, like you know, make
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science fiction not fiction forever, kind of make star star trek real. That's
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uh. So, that's why I think that there's actually there's this high urgency
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to making life multiplanetary because this is the first time in four and a half
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billion year history that it's been possible to extend life or consciousness beyond Earth,
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and we've got to do that while civilization is still strong. So that's the
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overarching goal of the company is extend life sustainably to another planet. Mars is
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the only option, really, and to do so ideally before World War three
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or some kind of bad thing. The key thing is that we need enough
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people and enough tonnage on Mars such that Mars can survive and continue consciousness even
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if something would happen to Earth. Now I still think obviously we wouldn't.
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I'm not talking about abandoning Earth or anything like that, and we want Earth
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to be as good as possible for as long as possible, but there are
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certain things that may be outside of our control. So we want to just
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get Mars to be a self sustaining civilization as quickly as possible, and I
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think this can be done in around twenty years. So and this this giant
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starship factory that we're building is obviously key to that, and the launch sites
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that we're building here and at the cape and elsewhere in the future will be
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key to that. Oh, it's wild that that this uh, this strange
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spot. This we're basically on a sand spit by the Rio Grande near the
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beach, and that is actually the gateway to Mars. Has to be like
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if this was a movie, you'd be like, no way, come on,
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too implosible. But it's it's real and it's due to you guys.
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Congratulations. This is the side by side of the three flights. You can
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see our thrust a weight improved significantly. So we've made tremendous progress from flight
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one to flight two to flight three, and we got flight four coming up
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in about a month or so. And with flight four we should if we
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get you know, if fate smiles upon us, we will get through the
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high heating regime and smash into the ocean at a controlled spot and the hopefully
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be able to also do this with with the booster uh land on essentially a
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virtual tower. If the landing on the virtual tower with the booster works,
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then we will actually try with flight five to come back and land on the
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tower. No, that's very much a success oriented schedule, but it is
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in the realm of possibility. But I would say, like the odds of
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us actually being able to catch the booster with the me Gozilla arms this year,
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I think, I don't know, I don't want to tempt a fate
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knock on wood, but I think the odds of actually catching the booster with
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the tower probably like eighty ninety percent this year, which is insane. Like
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actually, when we first talked about it, it sounded so bat shit crazy.
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We're going to have a giant it's like literally bigger than me Gozilla from
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the movie that you would catch like the like the biggest flying object ever made
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with mechanical arms out of the air. But we're going to do it,
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so let's get Yeah, it may not work, you know, necessarily the
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foot time, but you know it will work. So really, Starship is
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really the key to making life multiplanetary and preserving the light of light of consciousness.
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That's what it's all about, and it may end up being the most
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important thing that that we have a do. I think that like the light
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of consciousness is like this this tiny candle in a in a vast darkness,
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and that candle has only been lit for a very short time, and it
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could easily go out, So we obviously want to preserve that that the tiny
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light of consciousness on Earth but extended to Mars and then ultimately to the rest
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of the Solar System and then start going to other star systems. And I
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mean, I won't be allowed to see that, but unless I'm like frozen
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or something other. But but you know, I think at some point we'll
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discover many civilizations that maybe lasted a million years or two million years or ten
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million years, but a civilization that lasted a million years, which would be
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you know, vastly longer than our civilization has lasted. I mean, that's
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only the third decimal point, so like thirteen point eight billion something something years.
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If you're if your civilization lasts a million years, it's only goes that
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third digit past the decimal point goes up one and that's a million years.
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So I mean, i'd say, like we should think of, like how
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do we make civilization last a million years? You know, we often get
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caught up in like the day to day things, but we want them to
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have at least a million year civilization, if not one hundred million year civilization
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or a billion year civilization. So absolutely crucial to that goal is becoming a
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multiplanet species. People and people often people often ask why why Mars. Well,
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there's not a lot of options. Frankly, so uh, Venus is
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a superheated, high pressure acid bath, so not not what you don't don't
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want to go to Venus. And then the Moon is close, but it
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doesn't have an atmosphere, the gravity is only one sixth out of Earth,
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and it's missing a lot of key resources. So also the the the the
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insulating value of the Moon relative relative to Mars is much less. So if
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there's something that takes out of like let's say there's a World War three global
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therm and nuclear warfare, they're probably throw a few nukes at the Moon,
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so whereas it's way harder to shoot Mars with with nuclear and Mars would see
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it coming and probably have some time to stop the inbound missiles. So that
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the value of Mars, the difficulty or the distance and time required to get
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to Mars, actually has an insulating benefit to the for the continuation of consciousness,
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even if there's something terrible happens on Earth. And and then once we
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go beyond Mars, there's there's some asteroids like Cerus, some of the moons
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of Jupiter. Starship would ultimately be capable of uh of reaching anywhere in the
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Solar System, and then we'll need something so a new level of technology to
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go to other star systems. But if we can at least get to Mars,
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then other star systems are hopeless. I mean, it's a fixer upper
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of a planet. Okay, need some work, but it is. It's
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really the only option for becoming multiplanetary and long term, we can warm up
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Mars and we can there would be we can densify the atmosphere and there'd be
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a liquid ocean on about forty percent of the surface, so we could make
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it an earthlike planet long term. So let's see, we've learned a tremendous
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amount from when we started the company and at first could we're unable to get
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even a small rocket or of it to now where we've done three hundred and
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twenty seven successful launchers, almost three hundred landings. In fact, you know,
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give it a few weeks and we'll have done three hundred landings two hundred
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and sixty one reflights. So I many times I was told that reusability was
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it was impossible, and even if you did it, there would there will
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be no point because nobody would want to fly rockets that much. But now
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we routinely fly and land the booster and we recover the fairing. So we've
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learned a tremendous amount from the Falcon program that is then feeding into the Starship
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program, and Falcon and Starlink all what obviously keep the company going. So
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I just like to give a hand to the Falcon team for the incredible work
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that they're doing. And then Dragon, well forty five launches a Dragon.
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It's amazing, and we've flown fifty crew members to orbit forty six to the
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space station and everyone has come home safely, which is the most important thing.
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So you know, incredible work by the Dragon team. So Skim the
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hand that was couldn't ask for a better outcome. And Starlink actually, if
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you look at the sort of the plot of the all the satellites going around
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Earth, this look kind of scary actually, but there's six thousand satellites in
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operation, over six thousand and ten thousand lasers, almost three million customers.
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So Starlink is doing a lot of good people for people on Earth who don't
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either don't have Internet access or it's very expensive, and so it's doing doing
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a lot of good, you know, on Earth, because when I say
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we want to be a multiplanet species, i'm you know, we obviously want
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to Earth to be as good as possible and Mars to be great. So
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Stallink is doing a tremendous amount of that, and we're learning a lot by
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having this big fleet. Stalling will also be very important for high bound width
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communication to and on Mars. So from it from a tiny rocket to Falcon
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nine, which is a much bigger rocket, many iterations of Falcon nine and
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then Falcon Heavy and then Starship as Starship will get bigger obviously, you know
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this this year, if things go according to plan, SpaceX will do probably
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ninety percent of all Earth Master orbit, and then China will do about six
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percent, and the rest of the world will do about four percent, which
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is pretty wild. And then once Starship is flying, we'll be doing over
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nineteen nine percent of all Earth master orbit. What you kind of have to
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do in order to build a city on Mars, and I should say we'll
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also build a lunar base as well, so it might as well along the
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way so you can see the actually Falcon one was really yeah, half a
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ton to orbit ling grief slight error on the slide there, so Falcon was
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about half a ton to orbit. Falcon nine, depending on inexpendable mode I
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would do probably twenty five tons to orbit, and yeah, Falcon Heavy probably
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seventy. Anyway, these these are just obviously rapidly increasing numbers, and Starship
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in its final configuration or its final form, we'll probably do well over two
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hundred tons to orbit with full reusability and be able to fly multiple times a
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day. So and then there's recovering and reusing the ship. The ship will
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take longer, so the ship. I think we will want to have at
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least two consecutive successes of a given design that's land at a specific point in
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the ocean or smash into a specific point of the ocean before we try to
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bring it back to the launch site, because we do we do not want
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to rain debris over Mexico or the US. So my guess is probably next
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year is when we will be able to reuse Starship, but I think it's
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I think it's highly likely that this year we will bring Starship to or the
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ship the ship side of it to a controlled point in the ocean and have
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it basically land on a virtual virtual tower in somewhere in the in the Pacific
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or the Indian Ocean. And we've already proven that we can do the final
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phase of landing, so coming from sort of a belly first position to rotating
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the ship and landing vertically, we proved that right here. So what we
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just really we just need to be confident that we can get through the high
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heating portion of the app of re entry reliably, and then we will bring
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the ship back and we'll land on the tower as well. And we're going
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to build more mechazillas, so there's going to be two launch towers here and
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I think and then two launch towers at the Cape as well, so well
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have four launch towers for uh for Starship, probably you know, by sometime
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next year. So we're aiming to have the first Cape launch tower and launch
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system operational around the middle of next year, and that'll be important for launch
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azimuths that are sort of fly overland. So I think what we should probably
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expect is that we do the kind of the development launches here, test anything
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new here, build the build the rockets, and then probably most of the
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operational launches would be from the Cape. So this year we're planning to build
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another roughly six UH boosters and shifts, and that production rate will increase a
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lot next year. That's why we're building the Giant factory. Ultimately we'll need
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to build a lot more shifts than boosters, especially for Mars, because it's
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the you'll actually want to use the ship, take apart the ship and use
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it for raw materials on Mars because the ship materials will be so valuable.
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Most of the shifts you wouldn't want to bring back. You do want to
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just use them for raw materials. Eventually, we will want to bring shifts
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back, and I think we want to give people the option of coming back
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because they're more likely to want to go if there's some option of coming back.
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But I think most of most of the people that go to Mars will
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probably never come back to Earth. So and we'll need to ramp production to
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pretty high numbers, like I think ultimately probably a ship every like multiple ships
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per day basically, and then next year we're aiming to demonstrate ship to ship
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propellant transfer. It's hard to make this not look a little bit norty uh
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because it's two ships connecting and doing a fluid transfer. Just what it is,
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but it is this is actually a very important uh. This is a
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very important step on going to Mars because you need to put to get the
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ship to orbit and then do orbital refilling kind of like aerial refueling, and
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and that's that's really you need about about five or six uh refilling missions for
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every one mission that goes to Mars, so roughly five to one. So
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and this will also be very important for the Otomis program for the Nest to
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get back to the Moon. So we want to have a ship that is
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well, it's going to be a specialized ship for the Moon like this.
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So the Moon obviously there's no mechazola, so we need landing legs and you
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don't need a heat shield, and you don't need flaps because there's no atmosphere.
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So the moonship would be specialized. And ultimately I think we want to
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build a moon base moon based ALFA and have a permanently occupied base on the
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Moon like that would be super exciting. And so you'd have a bunch of
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ships that are specialized for going to and from the Moon. But they never
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come back to They never land back on Earth. They just would would dock
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with propellant propellant tankers to get orbital refell So in terms of performance, we've
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made traumatic progress on every level for Starship. It's remarkable that we can see
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the raptor engines and how it has evolved from, you know, optimistically one
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hundred and eighty five tons to two hundred and eighty and I think ultimately we'll
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probably the booster engines will aim to get the booster rangines over three hundred and
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thirty tons of thrust, which would mean ten thousand tons of total thrust at
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leftoff. So and then the Raptor of three also will not need a heat
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shield. So Rafter three looks looks very simple, and it is actually simplified
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in a lot of ways, but a lot of the complexity is hidden because
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we have integral cooling channels in many plots of the engine that don't exist in
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Raptor two. So in order to not have a heat shield, it has
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to be very resilient. But that is actually what rafter three would look like.
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It looks like Rafter three looks like it's missing a bunch of parts but
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actually those parts have either been deleted or they've been integrated into the system.
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And like I said, with integral cooling channels and where you need secondary plumbing,
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the secondary plumbing has also been integrated into the pump and into the the
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chamber jacket. And yeah, so it's much simpler. Well, it's it's
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it's yeah, it's actually extremely difficult to build rafter three, but that it
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will be easy to integrate and will have higher performance and lower total mass and
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be more reliable. So h well, then can go for a while.
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So I find it interesting to look at the if you look at the the
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flame tail on Starship and how long it is, it's a it's a very
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long flame tail, which is due to the fact that the chamber pressure,
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well, it's it's just outputting a lot more yeah, a lot more gas
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at a higher velocity. But I think the flame tail is like maybe a
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thousand feet long. It's like more than twice the length of the rocket.
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And that will actually get as as we increase the thrust, that will get
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longer. So yeah, and inevtably, the rocket grows in height. So
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Starship two raiming for like I currently Flight three would be around forty or fifty
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tons to orbit. So the current design, Starship two will be over one
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hundred tons, and then Starship three will be over two hundred tons. And
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yeah, it's gone from around seven thousand tons thrust to over eight thousand.
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Nine. I think we'll end up ultimately with more than three more than ten
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thousand tons of thrust, probably seven or eight thousand tons of leftoff mass,
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and at least ten meters taller. We'll see tends to grow, yeah,
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exactly, so it probably grows a bit more than that even Really, so
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if you look at Falcon nine, it's it's very We're not going to do
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the length to diameter of falconine. That would be crazy, but uh,
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Falcon nine is a very long rocket, and so I suspect it will probably
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get a bit longer than this. But at two hundred tons per flight fully
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reusable, that is that is pretty incredible. And yeah, it will be
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on the order of five hundred feet toll and then we're at this this hundred
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there's thousands of design improvements here, so I mean, I think maybe the
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most one of the most profound things is Starship three will cost less per flight
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than Falcon one. So that's the difference between if you've got a fully reusable
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rocket or an expandable rocket. The fully reusable rocket with low cost propellant and
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or touching this pressurization actually costs less than a tiny expandable rocket. So and
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it'll do. Like I said, Falcon one is about half a ton to
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orbit. The Starship three will be four hundred times more payload for less than
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the cost of a Falcon one. Ultimately, I think we might be able
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to get the cost per flight to Earth orbit down around two million dollars or
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three million dollars. So these are sort of unthinkable numbers from the you know,
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nobody ever thought that this was possible. But we're not breaking any physics
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to achieve this, so this is within the bound without breaking physics, we
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can do this. So the Mars missions are two years apart or twenty six
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more. And if you look closely at the Starlink router, you see the
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home and transfer from Earth over to Mars overit and that's basically to stay to
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people, the Starlink system that you're buying is helping get humanity to Mars.
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I think it's pretty cool. So roughly every two years thousands of ships would
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depart from Earth to Mars. It would look like Battlestar Galactica, but in
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a good way, you know, hopefully without being chased by the cylons.
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But it would be an incredible thing to see these thousands of ships departing every
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twenty six months from Mars. What this diagram is basically saying is that for
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getting to Mars, we would essentially create a kind of a propellant depot ship.
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The propellant depot would look more like a hot dog than like a spear.
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Surely, just mix a long ship with a lot of insulation and we'd
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fill that chip up. And then shortly before or as they're going to Mars,
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the ships would take off with a couple hundred tons of payload from Earth,
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reach or of it with very almost no propellant, and then get refilled
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by the tanker and then go to Mars and land, go all the way
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to Mars with over two hundred tons of useful payload. Then on Mars,
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in the beginning, we would, I think we would simply reuse the ship
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materials, so most of the ships wouldn't come back. But then over time
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you'd want to bring the ships back so you could reuse them. And for
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that we would need to create methane H four and oxygen O two on Mars,
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which you can do with a T and CO two. So the atmosphere
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is CO two and there's plenty of water ice H two and so it's kind
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of like tailor made for well. Actually, the reason we have a methane
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oxygen system is because you can make methane and oxygen on Mars fairly easily,
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like not that's not a total walk in the park, but the ingredients are
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readily available to create methane and oxygen on Mars. So so you build a
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propellant depot and bring the ships back and build out as quickly as possible a
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self sustaining civilization on Mars. And we want to get that. We want
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to get the cost of going to Mars such that almost anyone could afford it,
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so like if somebody were to just work hard on Earth, save up
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and that they'd be able to go to Mars. So it's like anyone.
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Ideally, almost anyone could go to Mars. And I think you'll see a
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lot of governments also sponsor people. And ultimately we want to get so there's
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a kind of an optimal landing zone on Mars where you have resources, so
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you've got access to water or frozen water that you're not too close to the
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poles, so you can use solar power. It would it would be nice
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to use nuclear. I don't know if we'll get the approval, but nuclear
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would be very handy on Mars because you can use the heat and you can
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generate electricity. So and then you kind of want to be about two kilometers
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below sea level, so if Mars did have an ocean, you'd actually be
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quite deep in the ocean, at least at first. And yeah, so
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let's see that's Mars. Kind of you kind of want to land about halfway
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between the pole and the equator in a kind of a deep area of Mars.
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If the deeper it is, the more you can use the atmosphere to
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break and the atmosphere density is higher. So these are all the things that
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would have to be developed soon. As people ask me are we developing these
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things, I'm like, not yet, because this is the cart, and
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we need the horse first. So the rocket is the horse, and then
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this is the cart. But ultimately we'll need all these things. Less of
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power generation mining in general, ice mining, propellant production, long duration life
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support, construct, a lot of construction, and the global communication. So
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I think this would open up a lot of opportunities for entrepreneurs that want to
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create any to create things on Mars. Whether that is a propellant well,
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I think we'll have to do the propellant depot. But whether it's like iron
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ore refining or a pizza joint or a bar, you know, there'll be
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an opportunity to do all the things that we like on Earth on Mars,
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like a Mars bar would be yeah, great, So I think I think
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probably a rough order of magnitude guess for what you need, how many people
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do you need for a self sustaining city is about a million and several million
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tons of cargo. So yeah, which we can do, and we can
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do this in twenty years. But like I said, in order for it
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to be self sustaining, you actually need the entire base of industry. You
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can't be missing any element. So that's that's really what's going to take take
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a while, is do you have everything you need to survive on Mars.
35:46
At that point, the future of consciousness is asshired. So if you do
35:54
ten launches a day at two hundred tons per launch, uh, a million
36:00
and a half tons to Leo per opportunity. You net that out to a
36:05
quarter million tons to Mars per opportunity, So that means you can get to
36:12
a million tons in about eight years, since the opportunities are two years apart.
36:22
So I think it's pretty doable, and I'm like, we're actually going
36:23
to do this. We get well, you know, we are actually going
36:29
to do it, which is insane to think. So millions of tons to
36:32
Mars. Yeah, wow, we're going to build a lot of vehicles.
36:45
So yeah, several thousand vehicles per year that's what we'll need, which really
36:58
quite quite doable. Actually it sounds like a lot, but it's very doable.
37:06
Yeah, if you're compared it to sort of car production, there's a
37:09
small number. Of course, this is much bigger than a car, but
37:13
even if you look at the total tonnage the it's still very it's very doable
37:17
to build several thousand vehicles a year. So that's what we need to do,
37:24
and we're gonna do it, and then long term will probably have some
37:30
offshore launch lights. You can just imagine all of these starships waiting a otverit
38:02
for the planets to align, and then this gigantic starfleet taking home from Mars.
39:00
All right, so we're actually gonna do this. And when you think
39:06
about where this started out, this was literally just like a sandbar where we're
39:10
standing right now. And now look at what we've done here, and that
39:15
we've gotten three flights off of starship and we've got a fourth, fourth one
39:19
coming up, and we're building a gigantic factory that we'll be able to output
39:23
a massive number of ships. So it's surreal, but but it's real.
39:30
So we're actually gonna do this. We're gonna take humanity to Mars, and
39:37
I have confident you can do it, so