Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Full Episode - Democratic Primary Turnout Shows A Blue Wave Building - From Guthrie to Springsteen: The Lineage of American Protest Music

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Full Episode - Democratic Primary Turnout Shows A Blue Wave Building - From Guthrie to Springsteen: The Lineage of American Protest Music · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: This episode of The Chuck Podcast is brought to you
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  Speaker 1: by Chapter. Now, almost everything you hear about medicare is
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: somebody quietly trying to steer you somewhere, and you're skeptical
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: of that, as you should be. I get it. I mean,
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: there's a federal lawsuit going on right now over exactly
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: this companies that branded themselves as unbiased while allegedly pointing
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  Speaker 1: people toward whatever would pay them the most, as some
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: sort of broker. So if your default is to distrust
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: everyone in this space, honestly, I get it. I'm a
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: bit distrustful these days myself. That's the whole reason I
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  Speaker 1: want to tell you about Chapter. They're independent medicare advisors
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  Speaker 1: whose entire model is that their advisors are not paid
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  Speaker 1: to push any one plan. They're just trying to help. Yes,
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  Speaker 1: there's compensation that goes with it, but it's across the
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  Speaker 1: board is what they're trying to do. At the end
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  Speaker 1: of the day, they're advocating for you. They're not the
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  Speaker 1: insurance companies themselves. They're an actual person who actually goes
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  Speaker 1: through your doctors, your prescriptions needs, and then compares them
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  Speaker 1: to every single plan available to find the best one.
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  Speaker 1: a couple of dollars too. And here's the part that
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  Speaker 1: sets Chapter apart. They don't disappear once you've been in
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  Speaker 1: a role. They will keep advocating for you. They're kind
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  Speaker 1: of like almost like a concierge service. You're just there.
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  Speaker 1: I need help. You're like customer service. You know the plan,
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  Speaker 1: you know, help me navigate this again. So you ever
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  Speaker 1: get hit with a wrongful medical bill, they'll help you
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  Speaker 1: fight it. They want to stay an advocate for you
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  Speaker 1: even after you've done this. So look, I get it.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: I think there's all sorts of space. You see a
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: lot of people are throwing themselves in this healthcare space.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: When I like about these Chapter folks, I've spent time
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: with them. This is a very transparent organization. It is Medicare,
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: and all of its affiliated stuff can be very confusing.
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  Speaker 1: The whole point of this is to make this easier
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  Speaker 1: and less confusing. Okay, so look, take this cupicism you
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  Speaker 1: already have in all of this, point it at your
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  Speaker 1: own plan for twenty minutes. It's free, there's no pressure,
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  Speaker 1: and then call Chapter today at nine eight zero seven
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  Speaker 1: three four three nine eight five. Hello, They're a happy Thursday,
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: and welcome to another episode of the Chuck Podcast. And
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: to pick up on where I left you on Monday, No,
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: I do not. I have not passed my kidney stone.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: For those that are asking and wondering, the good news
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  Speaker 1: is I am passed the painful part of that part
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: of the conversation. But there's always two parts for any
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: of you that have ever experienced it, there's always two
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: parts to the lovely way that a kidney stone can
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: treat you. Part one is all the pain, and it
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: can be long, it can be tedious, it can come
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: in and out, it can last over a couple of days,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: in and out, which sadly is what is what I
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: was dealing with, what I've been dealing with with this one.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Then the other part is just the next level, and
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: that is the good news is that it's it's not
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: a it doesn't drag out, but it certainly is not
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  Speaker 1: something you look forward to. So, with apologies for painting
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: that visual for you, do I do think and kind
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  Speaker 1: of let me give you a rundown of what I've
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  Speaker 1: got going on this episode. First of all, I really
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: hope you've had a chance to take a look at
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: my two part special report on sort of Mark Walter,
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: The Lakers is the window and sort of this deep
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: dive trying to figure out what is going on here
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: and what you really see now, or certainly what I see,
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  Speaker 1: And I really thought it was importan enough to share
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: because the future of capitalism is on the line here
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  Speaker 1: right over the next couple of election cycles. Trust in
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  Speaker 1: the entire idea of capitalism is to me is going
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  Speaker 1: to be on the ballot over the next couple of
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  Speaker 1: election cycles. And it's very possible that this Laker's sale
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  Speaker 1: ends up providing the window into what could be the
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: main what could be an example of what leads to
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: problems in our economic in sort of the in the
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: structure of our economy, how our economy works. Because what
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  Speaker 1: you what you end up figuring out now is a
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: couple of things that we're interesting that I think is
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  Speaker 1: worth understanding, is that how important life insurance companies are
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  Speaker 1: to hedge funds. Now, How in some ways a life
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  Speaker 1: insurance company has replaced a bank as a place to
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  Speaker 1: borrow money and then borrow money against, as capital to
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: borrow money against. And a question I've come away with
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: after learning more about sort of how the private credit
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  Speaker 1: markets work. Is do we believe any of these valuations?
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  Speaker 1: Are what these things worth? Are they really worth what
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  Speaker 1: they say they're worth? Is there really twelve point five
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  Speaker 1: billion dollars in value in the laker or is it
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  Speaker 1: just what somebody is willing to pay and the and
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  Speaker 1: the assets are kind of inflated behind it. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: I don't I'm not going to sit here and say
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  Speaker 1: I know for sure, but this is These are the questions,
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  Speaker 1: and I think these are the concerns. And all I
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: will say is to take the metaphor of the canary
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: and the coal mine to its to its logical conclusion.
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  Speaker 1: I think we found a dead canary, and I think
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  Speaker 1: we need to find out if there's something wrong with
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  Speaker 1: the air here. The good news is there is a
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  Speaker 1: regulatory structure that's trying to look into the private credit markets,
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  Speaker 1: trying to get a handle on them. But the fact
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  Speaker 1: is we you know, it's not a public market, it
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  Speaker 1: isn't out there, and what don't we know? What don't
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  Speaker 1: regulators see? How concerned should we be? Because I can
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  Speaker 1: tell you this, if the next financial crisis is ends
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  Speaker 1: up being triggered by essentially hedge funds using this opaque
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  Speaker 1: private credit world to do it, and suddenly life insurance
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  Speaker 1: annuity customers are asking the taxpayers to make them whole,
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: which is, you know, the worst case scenario here. Then
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  Speaker 1: good luck making the case that capitalism is good for America. Right,
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  Speaker 1: you already have a population that has got some skepticism
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  Speaker 1: out there, and now we have a system, and you
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  Speaker 1: already have a belief out there that this that there
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: seems to be two economies, right, the case shaped economy
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  Speaker 1: sort of two systems, and it's like the wealthy operates
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  Speaker 1: in one world, the rest of us operate somewhere else.
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  Speaker 1: And if these people who really don't operate in the
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  Speaker 1: same world, we do end up dragging that economy down. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: good luck selling capitalism. So you know too, to my
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  Speaker 1: friends in the elected office who's charged with protecting right
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  Speaker 1: Americans day to day from things like this, if you
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  Speaker 1: want to save capitalism, get more vigilant on what's happening
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  Speaker 1: here in the private credit markets. Like I said, it
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  Speaker 1: does seem as if regulators aren't asleep here, but it's
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  Speaker 1: possible that finance has surpassed the regulators. And you know, again,
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  Speaker 1: this is one of those things. I went looking for
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  Speaker 1: one story and found another, and it's the other story
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  Speaker 1: that scared the Jesus out of me. So anyway, please
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: take a look at that two part series on that.
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  Speaker 1: My newsphere and substock columns this week are on this topic.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: Are on this topic as well. Also in the as
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: I'm in the promotional business, here most the newest episode
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: of Dynastic, my sports history podcast that I co host
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: with none other than ja Adande. We tackle Alabama football
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: and it is an amazing history. Bear Bryant, Nick Saban.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, there is no there is there's There's basically
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: two college football programs that are head and shoulders, at
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: least in that dynasty mode above everyone else. One is
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: from that has resides in that town called South Bend, Indiana,
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: and the other one is Alabama. And we begin with
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Alabama's as there as their fans always want to tell us,
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: it just means more right, But no, it's a I've
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: had a great time. I had a great time digging
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: into the history of Alabama football. Jay and I both did.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: I think you'll enjoy this episode of Dynastic. And in
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: a couple of weeks we're going to break down more
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: Alabama football with none other than Paul fine Bomb. I'm
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: looking forward to that conversation. But look, you come here
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: for politics, and we basically wrapped up the primary season.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: It's not over over right. The Germans haven't bomb Pearl
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: Harbor yet, so we still got a little bit more
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: time to go. There's we do have a runoff in
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: the South Carolina Senate primary next week. There's a runoff
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: in Oklahoma governor. We still have that Democratic Senate primary
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  Speaker 1: with Seth Moulten and Ed Markey. But in some ways,
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  Speaker 1: the big competitive states, the states that are going to
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  Speaker 1: tell us that gave us the nominees for the battle
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  Speaker 1: in November, we pretty much now know what's going to happen.
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  Speaker 1: And what's interesting about in a midterm election cycle is
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  Speaker 1: is is what you can take away from a primary
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  Speaker 1: season and what you can't take away from a primary season.
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  Speaker 1: I'm going to get to that in a minute, but
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  Speaker 1: before I get to the sort of the the larger
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  Speaker 1: takeaways from the primary season as a whole, because I've
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  Speaker 1: done some analysis comparing primary turnout by party, and because
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  Speaker 1: it is a it is a it is a directional
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  Speaker 1: you know, we talk about you hear the expression reading
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  Speaker 1: the tea leaves to try to figure out what's going
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  Speaker 1: to happen next. Well, a tea leaf that I like
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  Speaker 1: to read in a midterm year is raw primary turnout
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  Speaker 1: in both parties because there has been a pretty good guide.
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  Speaker 1: It doesn't tell you necessarily which party is going to
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  Speaker 1: win the mid terms, if you will, but you do
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  Speaker 1: have an idea of which party has a chance to
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  Speaker 1: underperform and which party is going to overperform. Primary turnout
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  Speaker 1: has been an incredibly good predictor in that right. It
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  Speaker 1: doesn't always tell you. A great primary turnout for a
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  Speaker 1: party doesn't mean they'll also win the general, but it
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  Speaker 1: does tell you enthusiasm. Because here's what you do know.
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  Speaker 1: Somebody that votes in a primary is definitely voting in
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  Speaker 1: a general. Somebody that didn't vote in a primary, you
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  Speaker 1: got to work harder to convince them to vote in
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  Speaker 1: a general. Right. So that's why higher primary turnout, that's
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  Speaker 1: you know, you've already got a bunch of voters more
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: invested in Look, I'm going to paint the picture here
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  Speaker 1: in a minute as soon as we break down what
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  Speaker 1: happened in Florida earlier this week. But it is there
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  Speaker 1: certainly are a lot of good signs. There's a reason
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  Speaker 1: why Democrats are favored in too. You know, our favorite
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  Speaker 1: to pick up the House and have a really pretty
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  Speaker 1: much a fifty to fifty shot at picking up the Senate.
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  Speaker 1: We have seen it play out through the primary season
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  Speaker 1: and the advantage that essentially Democrats have had almost across
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  Speaker 1: the board, and I say almost, I'll get to a
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  Speaker 1: few exceptions there, but almost across the board, Democrats have
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  Speaker 1: have been more enthusiastic, have had the higher primary turnouts.
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  Speaker 1: When when when you can compare apples to apples, which
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  Speaker 1: is a sign of a of of the likelihood that
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  Speaker 1: there will be they will be the party that wins
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  Speaker 1: more in November. The question is is it a wave
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  Speaker 1: or is it just a thunderstorm that helps them narrowly
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  Speaker 1: win the House. Let me break down Florida, because there's
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  Speaker 1: a few things right. The big the big surprise was
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: that alex vinman impeachment one point oh fame. Remember he
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: was the the whistle the famous whistleblower about that perfect
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  Speaker 1: phone call.
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  Speaker 2: Uh.
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  Speaker 1: His brother rode alex Vinman's fame to a congressional seat
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  Speaker 1: in Virginia. A couple of cycles ago, and so perhaps
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  Speaker 1: that being a blueprint. Alex Vinman relocated to Florida back
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  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty three. He's been a resident for about
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  Speaker 1: two and a half three years, maybe a little over
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  Speaker 1: three years, and he was new to the state. He
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  Speaker 1: moved to Broward County, which is home to the largest
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  Speaker 1: chunk of Democrats in the state. If you want to
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  Speaker 1: be a total cynic, it was almost like, Okay, if
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  Speaker 1: I'm going to move to Florida to run for office,
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: where should I move. You know, I'm sure an outside
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  Speaker 1: adviser would have said, oh, sure, pick Broward County. But
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  Speaker 1: he was running one of these races where he presumed
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: he'd be the nominee, and there was a sort of
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: the little engine that could is one way to put
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  Speaker 1: it right. You know, these stories, We've seen these stories
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  Speaker 1: so many times in politics. A state representative named Angie
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  Speaker 1: Nixon who has been a very vocal activist. She's shown
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  Speaker 1: up at protests in the governor's office in Tallahassee. She
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: was pretty high profile activist. She's a sitting state rep
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: but a pretty high profile dissenter on trying to push
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: back at DeSantis with the re redistricting. She just outworked
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  Speaker 1: Vinman with Democratic primary voters. Vinman raised a ton of
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: national money, very similar. It's like a Jamie Harrison South
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  Speaker 1: Care line up. You could even Vinman. In some ways,
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: this candidacy looked a little bit like you know, val Deming's,
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  Speaker 1: except Valdemings was a local elected official and didn't lose
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  Speaker 1: her primary. You had Amy McGrath, if you remember her,
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: who ran against Mitch McConnell lost by double digits, but
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  Speaker 1: raised an enormous amount of money. Vinman had a There
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  Speaker 1: was certainly a lot of national Democrats, national you know,
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  Speaker 1: who were just hopeful that he could make it a race,
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  Speaker 1: and he raised a bunch of money. He didn't really
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  Speaker 1: spend it, right, he was kind of hoarding it for
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: the general, assuming that he was going to get by. Well, look,
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  Speaker 1: Angie Nixon had been running for a while, Yle had
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: been doing sort of the little things. Then she went
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: hardcore progressive, joined the DSA. So I know, from a
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: national perspective, some are going to look at this and say, well,
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: look it's another progressive DSA affiliate, pizza an establishment figure.
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  Speaker 1: But I don't think that was why Nixon won and
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  Speaker 1: Vinman lost here because if there really was a progressive movement.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: Jared Moskowitz sitting member of Congress in the sort of
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: Broward Palm Beach area. He had a progressive challenger. That
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: progressive challenger didn't come very close. David Jolly actually had
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: somebody who tried to ride the progressive wave and the
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: Democratic primary for governor. That candidate didn't get very close.
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  Speaker 1: So I think if somehow this were a movement, you
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: would have seen those other candidates I mentioned perform much
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: better than they did, you know, sort of writing with
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: Nixon here, this was Nixon and now look she had
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: one other thing going for She was the highest profile
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: African American statewide candidate on the Democratic side. There was
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: a time where David Jolly had a pretty serious primary
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: opponent and Jerry Demings, the African American may of Orange County.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: That's the county then encompasses Orlando, so one of the
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: largest counties in the state. The African American vote is
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: always kind of under it's I don't want to call it,
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: it's kind of underrated in Florida. Look, Florida is known
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: for having. When you think of diversity in Florida, the
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: first thing you think of is Hispanics right, whether it's
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: Cubans in South Florida, Puerto Ricans and Central Florida Colombians, Venezuelans,
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: you get my drift. But Florida is also a southern state,
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: and just like Georgia, Alabama, Mississippy, South Carolina, there's large
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: population of African Americans Jacksonville, Orlando, Miami, Tallahassee, Tampa. I mean,
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: like in any major city in the South, Florida is
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: no exception. And there has been a recent battern in
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: Democratic primaries. When there are African American candidates running in
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: these statewide primaries, African American turnout goes up and that
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: candidate benefits. Andrew gillump pulled the upset of for Gwen
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  Speaker 1: Graham in twenty eighteen, powered by a supercharged turnout in
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  Speaker 1: the African American community as well, Angie Nixon won by
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: double digits. It's and we've seen, especially since the Supreme
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act, particularly in the South,
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: African American turnout has surged and there's a lot of
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: evidence that that Angie Nixon in Florida here, she benefited
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: from this quite a bit. And it's why you know,
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: I was pretty I was a Vinmin skeptic going in
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: because you know, as I starkily said in one of
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: either this podcast or a previous one, you know, he
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: wasn't constitutionally eligible to run for governor, right like you
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: know that meaning he hadn't lived in the state long
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: enough to even meet the residency requirement for statewide for
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: running for a state office. But he did meet the
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: residence of requirement for running for federal office, which is
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: literally a day, right. That's true of any state in
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: the Union. And I know Florida is usually home, you know,
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: is certainly not you know, negative on people. I mean,
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: you know, it's hard to find many Florida office holders
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: that were born in Florida. Most you know, most office
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: particularly if you over the age of fifty. Most of
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: most of Florida's office holders were born in another state.
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: So it's not it's not that being a native is that,
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: But you got to hang out for more than a
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: cup of coffee. And I think if you want to
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: see an overall lesson from Florida, I mean, you look
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: at the nineteenth the congressional district that Byron Donald's is vacating,
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: and now that he's the nominee for governor. The race
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: to replace him featured I think four out of state carpetbackers,
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: including two former members of Congress from other states, two
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: other former candidates from other states, and none of them won.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: The candidate that won was the one that ran as
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: the local Jim Schwartzell, like he was actually from the area.
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: And it is so there's this, you know, Yes, Floridians
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: are going to be forgiving of transplants and open to transplants.
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: I mean, that makes the Florida economy rev up. That's
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: not the issue. But are you of the community. Have
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: you made some contribution to the community, right? And I
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: think that there's or you just sort of literally just
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: like coming in and you know, just trying to look
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: for work, if you will. I'm going to be very
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: curious to see what Vinman does with his war chest.
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: He has raised a decent amount of money, didn't spend
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: much of it in the primary. Does he give it
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: to the state party? Right? If if Vinman would like
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: to essentially you know, the if he is interested in
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: political office long term, it's an easy call, right. The
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: easy call is he gives all the money to the
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: state party, not to Chuck Schumer and the Democrats, but
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: he gives it to the state party to help the
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: statewide Democratic ticket, which has had a lot of struggles
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: raising money collectively. And there certainly is a lot of
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: opportunities for Democrats to win down ballot races, whether it's
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: nonpartisan mayors races or congressional you know, these targeted congressional seats.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: So I'll be very curious what Vinman does. Does he
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: keep the money because he wants to run for office
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: himself in another two years. But I might argue, if
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: you would like to ingratiate himself with party leadership, if
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: you would want to maybe even have an opportunity to
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: work his way into the leadership of the Florida Democratic Party,
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: giving all of that money to the state wide the
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: state party is probably as good of a way to
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: ingratiate yourself. But we'll see, right, We'll see there. But
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: he got walloped, And I think it's a reminder, you
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: know you, I mean, as somebody who lionizes the small
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: d democratic process, I'm glad to see Angie Nixon and
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: Jim Schwartzel be able to knock off people who sort
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: of just thought they could just you know, waltz in
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: from out of state and just walk away with a nomination.
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: And it is it is heartening to see that at
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: the end of the day, voters do care if you
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: know a little bit something about the community. Right, are
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: you from the community? Are you of the community? And
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: I think in that sense, right, Vinman just didn't feel
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: like a Floridian yet, doesn't mean he can't become one.
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: Doesn't mean that that won't grow over time, but you
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: could feel it. And one thing about Angie Nixon, she
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: just outworked. I mean it goes to what you've seen.
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: You know, at the end of the day, ninety percent
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: of politics is you know, working your tail off. Do
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: you go to did you show up to a bunch
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: of events? Did you in a large state like Florida.
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: You know, if you don't have the cash, you better
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: be an energizer bunny and not take a day off.
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: And Angie Nixon was an energizer bunny. I mean, look,
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: I will never give up my status as a Floridian.
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: I'm not a resident anymore, but I still own property
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: in the state. My daughter's a resident of the state,
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: my daughter's a voter in the state, my mother's a
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: voter in the state. I still consider it, you know,
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: I will always tell you I'm from Florida. No matter
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: how long I've lived here in Arlington, Virginia, I still
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: feel like a guy from Miami, Florida. So yeah, the
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: point being is I consume all sorts of Florida content,
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: political content, local news content all around the state. And
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: the man she worked old school media stuff, new school
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: media stuff, you know, community to community. It wasn't until
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: about two or three weeks ago did you see Vinman's
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: campaign try to ramp things up a little bit. I
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: think somebody gave him some bad advice. He mistakenly thought
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: he could run as a national candidate sort of anti Trump.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: But as the team pointed out in our election night
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: live stream back on Tuesday night, I think it was
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: Grace Panetta that made this point, you know, or it
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: may have been Jeffrey s Kelley who said he felt
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: very Trump one point zero, like that was that was
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: like that was that was first term resistance, right. He
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: felt like he felt like Lady wasn't wasn't that show canceled?
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: Aren't we doing something different over here? And you know,
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: maybe that's maybe maybe that's a that's a too broad,
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: too too broad of a of a way to look
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: at it. But I do think it's a it. The
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: lesson to take away this, this is not left center.
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: The lesson to take away this is somebody worked really
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: hard in the primary and somebody didn't.
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: And that is a tale as old as campaign politics
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  Speaker 1: ethos dot com slash chuck that is e t h
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  Speaker 1: rates may vary. Well, let's talk about a couple of
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: the marquee races there. First, it's Florida, and you know
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: this gets it to the turnout I want to talk about.
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: I think the way I was watching the state wide
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: race was, look, we knew David Jolly was going to win.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: Wh knew Byron Donald's was going to win. I had
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: been pretty much a skept up on that Senate race
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: for some time, for all the reasons I had said before.
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: But here's what I didn't see in why I would
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: say Donald's is going to be considered a It's not
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: impossible for Jolly to win, but it would be improbable.
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: And it's not that this won't be a close race.
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: I actually happened to think it will be. I think
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: it will be a mid single digit race. Somewhere in
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: the four to seven point range would be my best guess.
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: At this point, he has to win the unaffiliated party
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: voters by the big double digits. Right, He's got to
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: probably win him by twenty five points. Because there are
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: a lot of former Democrats sitting in that column. You
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: can kind of tell when you analyze primary turnout. Right
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen, which was the last time Democrats had
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: primary turnout over one and a half million, they came
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: within a zero point twenty five percent of winning that
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: governor's race. They haven't been able to break one point
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: three million total vote since. They've been about one point
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: two in twenty twenty two, and they were about one
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: point two this cycle, which tells you they've lost some vote.
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: What's interesting is the Republican number sits at one point six.
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: That was about the the Republican primary turnout in eighteen.
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: One point six was the Republican primary turnout in twenty two,
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: and one point six was about the Republican primary turnout
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six. Now you could say, well, Republicans
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: didn't match the growth that they have. Yeah, that's true,
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: you can say that, but Democrats still start off at
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: this significant disadvantage. And you just see it in this
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: primary turnout again. In twenty eighteen, when the Democrats came
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: within a quarter point of winning both the governor's race
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: the Senate race, right that clean sweep, they outpolled the
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: Republicans in overall turnout, not by much, but they did.
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: It was basically fifty to fifty. The deficit's been nearly
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: a half a million in twenty twenty two, and nearly
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: a half a million again in twenty twenty six when
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: and again I'm going to get to this larger national
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: picture in a second. This is why you're going to
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: see a lot of folks bearish on all things Florida
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: because you see this missing ingredient. Right, That is not
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: what happened in Texas. That is not what we've seen
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: in Wisconsin. That is not what we've seen in Michigan.
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: Literally in just every other competitive state, Democrats have outpolled
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: the Republicans, or Democrats have increased their share of primary
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: turnout by a much larger margin than Republicans did. Right,
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: the enthusiasm gap had showed up an actual voter turnout.
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: There is no enthusiasm gap in this in this Florida turnout.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: A few other things of note w Washerman Sultz, she
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: won with less than fifty percent in a district that's
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: majority African American. She's going to she'll has she's in
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: a glide path the reelection, not quite sure she's going
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: to win if there is only one African American challenger
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: to her, kind of like what we saw in Detroit.
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: You know, at some point when the African American vote
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: consolidated behind one candidate, Shree Tander wasn't going to be
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: able to continue to win that race thanks to splintered
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: Thanks to splintered primary opposition, w Washerman Sults won that
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: primary because of splintered primary opposition. On that front, If
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: you're the Democrats, you're kind of disappointed that Corey Mills
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: didn't survive. You would have had quite a one two
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: punch for a narrative that Democrats would love to paint
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: of Democrat of Republicans. You know, scandal plague Republicans. There's
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: this awful story about the Palm Beach County clerk that
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: broke literally on primary day last Tuesday, and at Corey
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: Mills hung on right. Had Republican voters not rejected him,
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: pronomination that I think you might have seen a narrative
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: that could have stuck and it was going to throw
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: another house seed him play for the Democrats. But I
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: think you have to give Rond de Santis credit here
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: for this one. Rond de Santis came out and said
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: I'm not he didn't know who to support, and he
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: didn't come out for any other primary candidate. He just
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: simply said I don't support Corey Mills, and it got
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: a lot of attention, probably at a very crucial moment.
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: And it was a narrow loss by Mills, but it
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: was a loss. Nonetheless, Trump stuck by him. Decantis did not,
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: And so I think you have to give Desantas some
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: credit there for speaking out. Speaking of Donald Trump. He
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: had a particularly bad He just really had a bad August.
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: Right he is he is, and it may explain why
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: he suddenly decided to physically campaign for Darlene Graham before
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: the runoff next week, because he is on quite the Runnie.
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: He jumped in and endorsed the candidate that did not
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: win in that crazy clown car of a congressional race
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: I told you about, with all the carpetbagers, the one
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: with a one lone guy, Jim Schwartzel won it was he.
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: I'm sure he's going to claim that he wasn't that
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: his Corey Mills endorsement was old and he didn't reaffirm
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: that endorsement. But this is now multiple primaries in a row.
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: I think we're up to six primary nights in a
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: row where a Trump endorsed candidate has come up short
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: and his endorsement. He gave a last minute endorsement in
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: that the clown car race in the nineteenth there, and
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: it got our second place, a distant second place. It
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: got her over Madison Cawthorne, and over Chris Collins and
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: over Jim Oberized, but it wasn't enough to win. I mean,
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: it used to be that a Trump endorsement was worth
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: thirty something percent of the primary vote. It wasn't worth
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: thirty something percent of the primary vote in one of
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: the most traditionally wealthy Republican congressional districts in the state
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: of Florida, which is that one there that's in the
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: southwest part of the state. So I think that when
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: you're it, if you're trying to figure out is the
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: national environment going against Trump? Is Trump losing his grip
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: on Republican primary voters. There's a lot of data points
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: to support it. Right, this is you know, Tennessee primary,
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: he's on the wrong side. He had a candidate losing
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: the Michigan primary. He had a candidate losing the I mean,
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: this is this is a been a quite the losing
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: streak he has found himself on. And let's be honest,
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: it's it coincides with a continued drop in his approval
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: rating overall. I mean, a week doesn't go by where
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: another poll doesn't come out and he's at or near
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: an all time low in job approval or an all
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: time high in job disapproval. So these trend lines are
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: not good. And then his behavior at the moment is
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: just atrocious. Like he is not he is almost going
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: out of his way to make it harder for elected Republicans.
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: You know, he is not going to let anybody run
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: away from him, and he's made looking it hard to
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: run with them. The things he said about the crew
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: and the USS, Abraham Lincoln, the things he has said
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: about the issue of affordability. He is just never mind
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: his sort of rants and raves about any reporter that
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: asks a remotely tough question. He is I think he
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: is quickly, you know, I look at this as he
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: knows that his you know, his grip on it all
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: is coming to an end. It's probably why he's clinging
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: to keeping his name in the Kennedy Center and why
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: he's so angry about the ballroom, because he can see
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: his relevance is literally melting away. Poll by pole, Primary
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: by primary, and there's no doubt, even though he tried
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: to say in an interview that you know, he knows
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: voters are mad at Republicans, just not him. That is
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: not what many people are going to view an election
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: result that has Democrats winning both the House and the Senate.
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: If Democrats win both the House and the Senate, there
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: is one person Democrats are going to credit with their success.
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: It's Donald John Trump. And every elected Republican is going
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: to know those that are out of a job or
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: those that are out of the majority whose fault it is.
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: That doesn't mean they're all going to say it, but
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: they're all gonna know it. So let me tell you
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: a little bit more. I want to dive in a
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: little bit before we get into my interview. My interview
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: today is with an old friend of mine that I'm
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: a huge fan of as an author. Greg Mitchell is
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: an author of some terrific books, Nixon and the Pink Lady,
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: The Great Campaign of the Century up to Saint Clair
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: in California, and he is just He's done an enormous
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: amount of scholarship about this period of time in American history,
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: particularly out West in California. He's got this terrific new
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: documentary out about essentially what he three, John Steinbeck and
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: the Ghost of Tom Jod If you will, and you know, so,
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: anytime you have a documentary that's narrated by Roseanne Cash
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: uses music from Woody Guthrie and Bruce Springsteen, you're going
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: to get my attention. But what's great about it is
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: is sort of this sort of dual track of Woody
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: Guthrie and John Steinbeck sort of being out in California
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: at a time when all of that was happening that
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: in some ways, it's a it's a it's an homage
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: to the book Grapes of Wrath. And I can tell
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: you this after you listen to the Greg Metell interview,
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: I promise you you're going to find yourself wanting to
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: reread The Grapes of Wrath, because I did. Anyway, it's
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: a terrific conversation. And we're going to get to that
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: before I get to that, and I also have the
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: top five list, and we're gonna for this episode bring.
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: In the.
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: I didn't get to do the Time Machine last Monday
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: due to the special report that we did on Mark
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: Walter and the Lakers and Dodgers situation. So I have
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: my time machine, which is incredibly timely this week because
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: I think we're actually honoring the anniversary that I'm honoring
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: on the actual day of that anniversary, as this Thursday here,
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: August twentieth. But let's talk a little bit about the
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: tea leaves I've been reading a little bit and why
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: I think overall, despite like Florida is an outlier to
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: what we've seen in the rest of the country, and
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: it is a focus on all things primary turnout. So
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: we now have hard numbers on both sides of the
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: aisles in fourteen states that are in this sort of
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: that are hosting some competitive races. And what I found
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: is that they don't quite sort into two categories. It
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: kind of sort into three. There are states where the
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: Democratic electorate is expanding. That's most of them, and it's
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: pretty dramatic. I mean, really, there is only one state
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: where it's contracting, and that was Florida, and I've already
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: told you that story a little bit. And then there's
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: a state where it did absolutely nothing, not up or
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: not down, and it was kind of flat. That's Kansas.
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: And I think Kansas is obviously one of the more
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: interesting races in the general election. We can't wait to
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: see what's going on. But before I go, quick primary caveat,
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: quick little caveat about this analysis, primary turnout is just
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: that it is a tea leaf to read. It is
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: a bit of a thermometer, right. It is not necessarily
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: a crystal ball. Right. It tells you more about enthusiasm
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: of your political base than it does anything else. Right,
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: how excited are they about voting? How excited are they
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: going to go? And so this will say nothing about
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: the voter in the middle who maybe didn't decided not
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: to show up for an August primary. So you can't
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: you don't want to necessarily overread it. But it does
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: something else, and I think this is underrated. It actually
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: tells you where your party floor is, and that's something
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: that's important to know when you're less than eighty days
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: to go before election. So just to give you a
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: little sense of how predictive primary turnout is, if you
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: go back, I went. I went over five midterm cycles
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: twenty oh six, twenty ten, twenty fourteen, twenty eighteen, twenty
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: twenty two, and in every one, the party that led
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: primary turnout won the House popular vote five for five. Okay,
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: twenty oh six, Democrats cast about fifty seven percent of
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: primary ballots, and they won the House by about eight
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: and a half points in the total in the total votes.
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: Once all and said and done, they picked up about
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: forty seats. In twenty ten, Republicans cast fifty eight percent
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: of the overall primary vote that cycle, and they won
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: the national House ballot by about seven points. Twenty eighteen,
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: Democrats cast fifty three percent of the overall primary turnout
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: and they won by about eight and a half million.
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: And in twenty twenty two, Republicans won fifty three percent
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: of the turnout of the vote, you know, had fifty
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: three percent of primary turnout, and they won by just
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: under three So in each time, right, this is directionally
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: incredibly accurate at telling you and Democrats are on track
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: to essentially win the primary tournament. Now, I don't think
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: the size of the gap isn't necessarily you know, it
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: doesn't translate one to one, and it doesn't translate symmetrically.
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: Republican primary advantages shrink by forty to sixty percent by November.
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: A sixteen point Republican primary edge in twenty ten became
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: a seven point win, right a five point edge, and
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty two became a two point win. So it's
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: not it's it's sort of it's directionally correct. You can't
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: sit here and say that it's going to numerically give
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: you a specific number. The Democratic advantages, for instance, haven't
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: shrunk in the same way. In twenty eighteen, that six
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: point Democratic primary edge became an eight and a half
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: point win. It grew right ended up, they ended up.
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: So what does that mean? They won more independence? Maybe
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: they won more Republican crossovers, but some of that is
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: structural that that cycle. Enormous share Republican primary votes end
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: up getting cast in states where the primary is the
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: election Alabama, Oklahoma, Tennessee. So real votes worth nothing at
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: the margin in November, right, so, and those seats were
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: never in place. So that's why it's not a perfect
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: way to do this, but it is directionally very telling.
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: Mirror image happened for Democrats and O six huge primary
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: numbers in places like California, Maryland, Massachusetts. So they had
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: these huge Democratic primary turnouts that shrunk dramatically by November
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: because voters knew those races were already over. So again
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: directionally reliable, but trying to get specific with what one means.
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: You know, how many seats will that translate to, Hey,
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: that's different, that's mushy. You're still going to get the range.
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: So let's start with the states that ran competitive statewide
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: primaries on both sides in each of the last three
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: minu terms. So this is as apples to apples as
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: I could put together. Democrats have cast about fifty seven
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: percent of primary ballots this year in those same states.
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: In twenty eighteen, Democrats had fifty four percent. That was
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: a good year for Democrats. So right now they're running
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: ahead on this score of where they were in twenty eighteen.
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: By the way, in twenty twenty two it was just
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: forty seven percent. So they're running ten points higher than
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: they were in twenty twenty two and about three points
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: higher than they were. Right so, the Democratic primary electorate
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: running larger relative to the Republican one than it did
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: in the year they picked up forty House seats. Now again,
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: that doesn't mean they're on the way to forty house seats. Right,
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: we have all the remaps, etc. But here's to go specific.
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: Here's the biggest shifts in Democratic share of primary ballots
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: this cycle against the twenty twenty two cycle. You'll never
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: guess the state that had the biggest jump. It's Alabama
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: up twenty one points. Right. That's the power of Doug Jones.
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: He is candidacy. And you throw in African American voters
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: very angry about what happened with that redistricting, and we
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: have seen it translate into a surge of turnout. You've
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: really seen it in a place like Alabama. And the
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: Jones campaign has been making this case to me that
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: this the last time Democrats had any kind of primary
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: turnout like they got for Jones. And remember it wasn't
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: even really a contested statewide primary. But the last time
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: Democrats did that, well, it did translate into them actually
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: winning the governor's mansion some twenty plus years ago. So
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: Alabama them The biggest leap for Democrats this cycle was
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: in Alabama. Up next is Wisconsin twenty points. Nothing like
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: a super competitive, cubernatorial primary to surge there. Right, open primary,
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: the interest shifted that. The question is how many of
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: those voters that voted in the Democratic primary stay voting
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: for Democrats? Right. Pennsylvania up nineteen points, that's significant in
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: those house races there. Texas up sixteen points for the Democrats,
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: Ohio up fourteen, North Carolina up twelve, Arkansas up eleven.
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: There is one semi competitive house seat in Arkansas, in
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: the Little Rock area. It's french Hill's I'm French Hills District.
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: I think french Shill probably wins, but it's probably going
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: to be the most competitive race he's had in some time.
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: Maine Democrats up eight points on turnout, Georgia up six,
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: Iowa up four, and then there's Colorado and Michigan where
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: Democrats cast roughly, you know, sixty two percent of primary ballots.
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: But the problem with both of those states is there
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: isn't a good historical baseline to compare it to. It's
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: not clean enough, so I kind of I kind of
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: want to be careful, be careful there on that one.
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: Ohio though, is fascinating because it wasn't just a shift
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: upward for Democrats forty seven percent right and turnoutticipation. Republicans
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: were also down in Ohio eighteen points right. North Carolina
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: same situation. Not only did Democrats go up thirty, Republicans
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: went down eighteen. And that's in a place where Republicans
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: had just become the largest registration block, they had the
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: plurality over both no party and the Democrats. Democrats were
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: up nineteen points and Arkansas Republicans were down thirty four.
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: Now there wasn't a ton of statewide competition on the
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: Republican side of the aisle. Still in a state that
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: Democrats are been told to write off, that's a that's
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: not a that ain't nothing. Alabama I've just told you about.
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: They were actually up one hundred and five percent, Republicans
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: down twenty five, with turnout falling in sixty of sixty
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: seven counties. And remember they had a competitive Senate open
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: seat primary for Senate. So it's a I'm you know,
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: this is a significant yellow flag. It is why I
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: am I believe Alabama is a much more competitive governor's
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: race than many folks nationally believe. Now, the obvious objection
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: with any of this, it's the one Republicans have made
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: all cycle that Democrats have had more marquee primaries and Republicans.
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: But I'm eighty million dollars in the Michigan Senate race. Okay,
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: a real fight for governor Wisconsin, and yes, competitive primaries
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: manufacture more turnout. But again I go back to count
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: to Alabama, the total primary turnout was flat, but so
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: you had the same turnout, but this time more people
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: showed up to cast a Democratic ballot than they did
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: four years ago. So here you had basically turnout kind
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: of even than it was four years ago overall, but
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: a huge lead forward for the Democrats. That is apples
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: to apples. And then Pennsylvania is a great little experiment
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: here because both gubernatorial primaries were uncontested. Shapiro had no opponent,
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: neither did the Republican nominee Garrity no opponent, so there
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: was no statewide race to really drive turnout. And yet
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: Democrats dominated Republicans sixty four thirty six, as far as
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: two to one basically in primary participation. So I don't
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: think you can just chalk this up to Democrats had more.
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: That's what you do when you're trying to convince donors
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: that you're not going to lose yet, and I think
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: we're in a different place now. I would use this
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: analysis not to necessarily presume that there is going to
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: be victories for Democrats in places like Alabama and Arkansas.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: But what this analysis is really good at telling you
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: is where is there going to be where is there
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: going to be problems? Where are things going to be
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: more competitive? It tells you where a party's base is
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: not very enthusiastic. And this is where there are signs
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: all over the country that Republicans have an enthusiasm problem,
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: and all of this primary turnout has shown that. And
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: it's a much stronger signal than that. So this really
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: is a better negative screen than a positive one when
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: you're doing these apples to apples. And perhaps the best
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: way to showcase this is to do Texas versus Florida.
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: So Texas our first primary of the year. Democratic primary
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: ballots went from one point one million in twenty twenty
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: two to two point three million this cycle, and you
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: could say, well, they had a really competitive primary, right
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: Jasmind Crockett, James Tollerico, Yes they did. They more than
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: doubled it. It was the first time this century that
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: I believe Democrats had topped Republicans in overall turnout, and
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: it is it is that is a significant shift. Yes,
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: it may be won election cycle, but again, remember both
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: parties had competitive primaries. Cornin Paxton, is that not a
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: marquee primary. I think you could call it a marque primary, right,
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: So that's a big deal. Now take a look at Florida,
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: same kind of state, big sun belt Republican trending open
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: governor seat, opposite result. Florida Democrats in twenty eighteen cast
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: over one and a half million ballots, it was, and
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: then it ends up falling down closer to one point
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: to one point one. So it is this is not
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: a There is not evidence in Florida that there is
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: an extra enthusiasm. There's not evidence in Florida more people
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: wanting to participate in the primary system. Now look, somebody
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: in Florida may argue, hey, it's close primaries in Florida,
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: it's open primaries in Texas. Yeah, this is all the
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: more you know it. I do think that both parties
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: would benefit if they would have and let the unaffiliated's
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: in Florida, the no party people, which is a growing
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: chunk of voters. And clearly when you look at Democratic
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: primary performance, all the voters that they had that voted
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen that have left the party of gone
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: to no party because the Republican increase in registration has
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: been in some ways it has been the loss of
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: Democratic registration as much a it's been a gain, and
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: it's been almost the gain in the No Party or
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: the independent registration that has been the accelerant here for
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: the advantage that the Republicans Republicans have. So look, I
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: think it's I think when you look at the turnout
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: differences of Texas Democrats versus Florida Democrats, this is why
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: if you're investing there's some evidence that something's happening in Texas,
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: I can't tell you that I see that same evidence
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: that something's happening in Florida. Now let me go to
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: the one more state that I sort of teased at earlier,
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: the Sunflower State. Kansas, of course, held its primary a
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago, open governor's seat, single best opportunity
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: Republicans have to pick up a gubernatorial seat this year,
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: and they had a genuinely contested primary if you will,
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: with Trump's endorsement, but it was a big, big, you know,
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: long list of serious candidates. Every ingredient was there for
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: to help Kansas Republicans surge turnout. Both sides engaged open
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: seat national attention. Here's what happened in twenty twenty two,
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: the highest turnout Democratic statewide primary in Kansas drew about
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: two hundred and eighty nine thousand voters and the highest
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: turnout Republican one drew about four hundred and forty five
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: thousand voters thirty nine thirty nine point three percent Democratic right,
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: so at sixty one thirty nine there. This year, Democrats
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: drew about two hundred and twenty thousand votes their most
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: contested race. They had both a contested gubernatorial primary and
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: a contested center primary, but Republican turnout was down almost
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: one hundred thousand. Republicans only had about three hundred and
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: forty thousand, So Democratic turnout kind of you know, in
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: the same place thirty nine point three percent Democratic. Nothing
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: really moved. Both parties fell about twenty four percent in
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: raw vote votes. Democrats are down twenty four, Republicans are
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: down twenty four. Perfectly proportional decline. Well, you have to
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: be honest about why the raw numbers drop, because the
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: explanation is important and it isn't disengagement. The August twenty
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: twenty two primary in Kansas had that abortion referendum, and
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: so there was a lot of people that came in
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: and voted heavily and ended up voting in a Republican primary,
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: but voted in favor of or against the refer I
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: think it was like the no was the S, the
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: S was the no, but essentially to prevent the state
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: from banning abortion. It clearly had a huge inflation in
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: the turnout and certainly means that you had to decline.
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: But it is the ratio that I'm interested in, right,
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: and the fact that essentially the Democratic number only dropped
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: a little, but the Republican number dropped a lot. You know, Look,
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: it is why there is a glimmer of hope for
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: Democrats to make that senen See competitive. But it's also
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: why there's some built in skepticism. Right in Iowa, the
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: raw Democratic primary turnout top you know, they actually had
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: more people show up than the Republican side. You're not
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: having that yet in Kansas. And perhaps that might be
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: the canary in the coal mine. It could mean that
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: maybe as bullish as some Democrats want to be about Kansas,
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: maybe there's a little bit more work to do, right,
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: Maybe there's a little bit more Maybe there's a little
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: bit more party building that needs to be done. But
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: the bottom line is this the primary turnout this primary
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: season his favorite Democrats. In just about every competitive state
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: where both parties had a competitive primary, Democratic turnout was
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: up and Republican turnout was either flat or down. What
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: that translates into is Democrats are favor to win more
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: seats in November than Republicans are. The question is is
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: that gap enough to flip both the House and the Senate.
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: Did the remaps allow for sort of a higher floodwall
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: for Republicans to prevent sort of a massive shift of
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: House seats. Even if Democrats win, say the national House
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: vote by five or six points, does it only translate
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: to say ten House seats or twelve House seats? Right?
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: That part of the November equation is unknown. But the
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: one thing we do know here there were more Democrats
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: interested in this primary season than Republicans. Is that about Trump?
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: Is that about the current political climate? And what I
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: can tell you is that in the last five midterm cycles,
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: the party that drew more voters to the primary polls
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: than the other party one one the midterms doesn't mean
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: they picked up both the House and the Senate, right,
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: you know? And six Democrats picked them up both in
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: ten Democrats were able to hold the Senate even as
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: they lost the House. In fourteen, it moved it Republicans
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: held the House and picked up the Senate. In eighteen,
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: Democrats actually lost Senate seats but flipped the House. So
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: it is directionally an important tea leaf to read. But
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: at this point, all it's setting up is that expectations
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: for Democrats to win this thing are higher today than
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: they were at the start of primary season. All are
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: with that sneaking a break when we come back my
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: fascinating conversation with my friend Greg Mitchell. We had a
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: couple of audio disruptions. You know, he may have been
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: coming to me from parts unknown. I'm teasing on that,
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: so bear with us with a small audio hiccup here
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: and there. But after that, my time machine top five
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: lists and some questions. Thanks for enjoy the conversation. This
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you by Quints. August,
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• 56:24
  Speaker 1: So my guest today is a return guest actually because
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: he's one of my favorite authors, so I'm always interested
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: in what he is up to. It's great Mitchell. He
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: is having him on today because he's the writer and
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: director of a new documentary you can find a PBS
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: called Woody Guthrie and the Ghost of Tom Jode today.
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: It's a fascinating look at the intersection of two American giants,
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: Woody Guthrie and John Steinbeck, of course, author of Grapes
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: of Wrath, among other things, and the character of Tom
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: Jod which became a bridge essentially between literature, music and
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: social activism, activism that frankly feels a bit familiar as
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: we are now. The documentary is narrated by Roseanne Cash,
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: features music from Bruce Springsteen, and it's a part of
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: a conversation I want to have with Greg on this
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: and as many of you know, I talk about this
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: all the time because two of my all time favorite
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: books about political biographies, if you will, One is Campaign
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: of the Century about Upton Ston Claire's campaign for governor,
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: written by none other than mister Mitchell and Nixon. And
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: The Pink Lady about the California Center race in nineteen
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: fifty featuring Richard Nixon, also written by Greg Mitchell. And
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: for those of you that know Greg know he is
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: absolutely probably as good of a historian on this era
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: as anybody alive today. Mister Mitchell.
• 57:46
  Speaker 3: Good to see you, sir, Thank you over always happy
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: to be here, Chuck.
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: My ear tells me by the way that you make
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: an appearance in this documentary, are you Are you the
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: voice of Woody or Spineback. I'm trying to remember now,
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: but you're one of the two principles right.
• 58:02
  Speaker 3: Well, certainly not Woody. No, I take the voice of Steinbeck,
• 58:07
  Speaker 3: who is a feature kse sort of a second. He
• 58:09
  Speaker 3: becomes kind of a secondary character because Woody is such
• 58:12
  Speaker 3: a you know, in my estimation and my longtime fandom,
• 58:17
  Speaker 3: he's such a giant and he speaks so much for today. Steinbeck,
• 58:22
  Speaker 3: as you know, after Grapes of Wrath, sort of went
• 58:26
  Speaker 3: away from more political social things that actually became a
• 58:30
  Speaker 3: more of a conservative and a Vietnam Hawk in his
• 58:33
  Speaker 3: leaders Woody stayed true to himself, and so it is
• 58:39
  Speaker 3: more of a Woody doc I think. But yes, I
• 58:41
  Speaker 3: am the voice of I'm the ghost of John stein.
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: You're the ghost of John Steinbeck. So talk about why
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: you chose to do it this way, what you were
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: trying to do, and is this part of a larger project.
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: Are you doing a few more things? Because I do
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: feel like you continue to sort of what I would
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: say is add new chapters to this this era and
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: certainly the research and that you've been doing for decades.
• 59:09
  Speaker 3: Frankly, Well, yeah, as you mentioned, I've done many many
• 59:12
  Speaker 3: books over the years, and then about six years ago
• 59:15
  Speaker 3: I turned to making documentaries for PBS. So I've done
• 59:20
  Speaker 3: five in the last five years, and you know, varying subjects.
• 59:24
  Speaker 3: But again, some of them have been on the There's
• 59:28
  Speaker 3: one on the Upton Sinclair Race that you mentioned, there's
• 59:30
  Speaker 3: one on the More massacre which happened to nineteen thirty
• 59:33
  Speaker 3: seven in Chicago, and then a couple others on as
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: you know.
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: We did the Atomic Bowl.
• 59:41
  Speaker 3: That's the weirder my hero.
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, sometimes you like sometimes what do they say, like,
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: you know, you don't have to make stuff up because
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: what happened in reality is sometimes stranger than fiction. And
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: that that's certainly a football game, Uh in Nagasaki after
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: the was in Nagasaki right now here right Nagasaki again, Yeah,
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: here we are. But anyway, so on this on this topic,
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: so so tell me sorry I interrupted.
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 3: Well, I you know, I've as you know, I've been
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 3: kind of obsessed with the Depression era and the politics
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 3: and what came out of that. So it's it's not
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 3: a new subject for me. But I've never I've never
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 3: done anything any film related to music. I've been a
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 3: Woody Guthrie fan going back many, many decades. And actually
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 3: the project in a way began a little over a
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 3: year ago when I finally, believe it or not, finally
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 3: read Grapes of Wrath. I had never read it. So
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 3: I finally read it, and it was actually even greater
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 3: than I thought it would be, and uh, you know,
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 3: it started taking me.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: I haven't read it since the eleventh grade, I bet
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: you know, eleventh or twelfth grade, and I wonder if
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: it's probably would would would get harder even harder today
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: given yeah, I think the world.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, yeah. And then I don't know how, but
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 3: I started down the path of seeing these connections between
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: Woody Guthrie and John Steinbeck, which most people don't know about,
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 3: including me, and seeing how intimately entwined they were in
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 3: that period. Of course, people may think of them today
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 3: in the same light dust bowl and depression and migrants
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 3: and all that, but I didn't know they had these
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 3: close connections back in the late thirties when Woody was
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 3: really becoming Woody, and Steinbeck had written Grapes of Wrath
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: and then the movie. A lot of people know the
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 3: Grapes of Wrath mainly from the Great Movie. So it's
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 3: a rare case where someone wrote a classic book and
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 3: the movie is also a classic, So it doesn't always happen.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 3: And so I saw that and I said, boy, I'll
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 3: keep looking into it and if these Woody connections and
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 3: then just great things I found out about Woody, and
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 3: then I connected with Woody's granddaughter since you would cop rate,
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 3: and I found got permission to use the songs, and
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: uh Springsteen and his manager, you know, gave permission to
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 3: use their song, and so it all came together. So
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 3: I was very happy the way it the way it
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 3: you know, the way it's worked out. As you mentioned,
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 3: it's on PPI. But the great thing about PBS is
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 3: it is showing on stations, but it's also anyone can
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 3: watch it on PBS Dot or app, so it's great.
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 3: It's anywhere.
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: Can I just tell you we're members. We love that
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: PBS app. We use it all the time. I mean
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: it's sort of like, look, I mean, I know some
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: people listen and are still sort of think of TV
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: in the traditional sense, and when is this going to
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: air on my PBS station? And you know, I've always
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: said we're spoiled in DC because we used to get
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: three PBS stations. You know, we'd get a Virginia d
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: C and a Maryland. But this PBS app, these docs
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: are on demand and so if you miss it, it's
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: right there.
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 3: When you're a PBS dot Org, you don't even have
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 3: to go to the app. So it's a great thing
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 3: about all my films have been for PBS, and I feel,
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 3: I mean, I'm happy to help PBS. But it's also
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 3: great because instead of saying, well, this movie may come
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 3: to your local theater and right look or check your listenings,
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 3: you can just go to PBS dot org and watch it,
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 3: you know, this afternoon tonight. Look.
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: The fact the hardest thing of making any documentary like
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: this is sometimes rights, right, you know, was it much
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: of a was it much of a How difficult was
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: it to get? I mean, you've you've you've basically connected
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: to me three generations of of of musician families, if
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: you will, right with Roseanne Cash, the gut threes, Rose
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: Cash and Bruce Springsteen, who have been, in their own way,
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: all trying to sing the you know, to try to
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: bring attention to the downtrodden, common commoner. I guess it's
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: probably their common you know. How how hard was it
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: to get Bruce to say yes? How hard was it
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: to at Roseanne Cash to say it? Yeah?
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 3: Well, I've known Roseanne for a while and I know
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 3: her her politics, and I know that she was a
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 3: huge Woody Guthrie fan, has performed at various Guthrie tributes,
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 3: sung his songs. I know that her father was a
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 3: huge Witty Guthrie fan, which would surprise no one. And
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 3: she's written about her father being a huge Woody Guthrie fan,
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 3: and so it was a natural to approach her, and she,
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 3: you know, she eagerly, eagerly took it to fit into
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 3: her schedule. But what's amazing about this whole, the whole
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 3: Woody Guthrie project. And I know people know him as
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 3: an icon, they know him as a name and songwriter
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 3: and so forth, but he is so beloved and respected
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 3: by so many people, you know, in the musical community
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 3: particularly and also among activists. So it is kind of
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 3: easy to get permissions from various people and because of
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 3: the esteem that he's held in. And the other thing
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 3: I should mention is that when I set out to
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 3: make this film, of course we already were seeing responses
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 3: to Ice. And we're going back a year ago now,
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 3: so you had this new You mentioned how this film
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 3: is maybe so relevant today, and we were starting to
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 3: see that when I started this the anti ICE protests,
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 3: and Woody Guthrie became kind of the songwriter of twenty
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 3: twenty five twenty twenty six for these protests with his
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 3: songs this Land is Your lie of course and all
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: you fascists bound to lose. This is a song that
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 3: people had forgotten about for a long time, and suddenly
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 3: if you went to a No King's rally or any
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 3: sort of anti ICE thing, people were singing, all you
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 3: fascists bound to lose, and this land is your land.
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 3: So Woody Guthrie had is having another moment which even
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 3: I was counting on at that time. And then Springsteen,
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 3: as you mentioned, the Minneapolis tragedy happened, and suddenly Springing
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 3: is performing again his old song, which hasn't never been
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 3: among his most popular.
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: Ghost of film Joe, the Ghost of Tom's I didn't
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: know Bruce was going to go on tour and sing
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: the Ghost of Tom Jod with Tom Morello every night,
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: you know, as one highlights. And of course I had
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: no idea that song would be revived, but it's always
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: been one of my favorites, so it was natural from
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: the beginning. I was hoped to use it in the film,
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 2: and h you know, it really serves as the emotional
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 2: climax of the film. So I guess I didn't anticipate
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 2: Bruce going back on tour and all that.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 3: But it did. It worked out for that.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: In that case, Let's talk about your two subjects here
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: In Got Three in Steinbeck, you intertwine them in such
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: a way.
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: I feel like Woody Guthrie does see himself as sort
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: of an amplifier of Steinbeck. Did Steinbeck's He Got Three
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: the same way.
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 3: Well with the what we've established is they did meet
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 3: at least a couple of times and probably several other
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 3: times in tours of migrant camps. We believe that Steinbeck
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 3: heard Woody on the radio. You know, Woody went out
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 3: the Woody was of course of Hoky. He fled the
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 3: dust Ball, went to California and started out in radio,
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 3: and he had a popular radio show, but he was
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 3: not famous nationally or even even that famous locally. He'd
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 3: written one or two songs, he hadn't written the songs
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 3: he's most famous for now, but he was a radio
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 3: kind of spokesman for the dust Bowl refugees. And so Steinbeck,
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 3: we believe heard him on the radio, but didn't, you know,
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 3: didn't know him for a while until they were introduced
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 3: by Will Gear, the actor who was a left wing
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 3: actor later famous for playing Grandpa Walton on The Waltons
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 3: h and other roles. So they were introduced and and
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 3: so they certainly knew each other. But Woody, I would
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 3: say The Grapes of Wrath had more influence on Woody
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 3: than the other way around, because Woody, you know, The
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 3: Grapes of Wrath was so popular that wood he felt
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 3: confident that he would have a wider audience, and he
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 3: recorded his own song Tom Joad, which was also in
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 3: my film, became one of his classics, and and inspiration
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 3: for Springsteen and so forth. So so they are really
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 3: deeply entwined. But it was Woody who went on stayed
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 3: on this path until his illness, and Steinbecker kind of
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 3: got off that path.
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: Look, I'll confess, I you know you sit here, you're
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: you know, I consider myself reasonably well educated. I know
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: my Woody got three and know my John Steinbeck, and
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: yet I didn't fully appreciate the connection between the two.
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: And now like it sits there in plain sight. What
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: why do you think it took so so long to
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: sort of make this cultural connection if you will?
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 3: Well, I mean, I guess, as I mentioned, Woody is
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 3: kind of passes in and out of you know, of
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 3: of true whether true modern current fame and relevance. Not
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 3: to me, He's always remained relevant. His songs are always
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 3: re recorded and covered and so forth. So uh and uh,
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 3: and of course the Grapes of Wrath a lot of
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 3: people only know from the movie Henry Fonda and so forth,
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 3: and people like me hadn't even read the book. But
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 3: so in some ways it's not that surprising. But you know,
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 3: I I just think in this past year, it's it's
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 3: just been incredible the way Woody has been, uh, you know,
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 3: adopted by people. And his song Deportees is the third
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 3: song I would mention that has just become the past
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 3: year so relevant to today. You know, one of the
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 3: great songs of the past century. It's being recorded every week,
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 3: there's a new cover version, people are doing it in concert.
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 3: There's a film in the works. So those are three
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 3: songs in the past year that have They've always been there,
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 3: but they've just incredible expansion in the public consciousness.
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: Tom Joe, you think it was meant to be political?
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 3: You mean the original book? Yeah, yeah, I think a
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 3: lot of people are surprised in the film that Steinbeck was.
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 3: You listen to his language, and he was even in
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 3: the book and in what letters he wrote. I mean,
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 3: he's calling the growers and the state officials who are
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 3: letting the migrants starve. You call it the murderers fascist. It's
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 3: a lot of language you hear today. He was not
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 3: holding back at all. What's interesting, And of course, what
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 3: I didn't know and probably most people don't know, is
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 3: that Steinbicker didn't had written two previous novels that looked
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 3: at farm workers in California, and then he wrote The
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 3: Grapes of Wrath, came directly out of a seven part
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 3: series he wrote for the San Francisco News, the old
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 3: newspaper in San Francisco, where he traveled to the migrant
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 3: camps for many weeks, wrote a seven explosive, seven part
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 3: series full of anger and everything else. That then led
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 3: to writing the novel The Grapes of Wrath. So he
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 3: had a long history in this and very I want
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 3: to say, is radical on this case. But he was
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 3: certainly angry and on the left in denouncing the growers
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 3: and agribusiness public officials. So that's what that novel came out.
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: I guess what I'm asking. It was more of a
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: he was I think he was attacking this through morality, right,
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: not necessary in politics, right, Yeah.
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 3: Well they were my you know, people who came and
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 3: you can have connections to today people, but these were
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 3: people who fled seeking a better life and some of
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 3: them found it, but mostly they were exploited and paid
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 3: slave wages of no wages at all, lived in the
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 3: horrid conditions, and so forth. So you traveled around California,
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 3: you would see this. You had to be affected, and
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 3: he certainly did.
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: So.
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 3: You know, he was not writing from an ivory tower
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 3: up and up in Salinas and the Woody was not
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 3: writing from you know, a desk at the you know,
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 3: at a radio station or something. They were out and
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 3: out and observing it.
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: One of the ways that you want to do that
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: you showcase just how massive this migration west, this migration
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: of California was. Is that I think you at one
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: point LA's population was like within a ten year period
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: went from fifty thousand to two and a half million. Yeah,
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: was it was it about ten year period.
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 3: Well, there's more, always more than fifty thousand, because people
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 3: had been moving out to LA from the Midwest well
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 3: before the depression. They used used to be that half
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 3: of half of LA was Iowa farmers, but they weren't
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 3: going out because the dust ball. Some of them were
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 3: going out there just for a better life. And in California,
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 3: you know, as you know, it's the market basket of
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 3: the country even then. So and then it surged throughout
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 3: the twenties and then exploded in the thirties with you know,
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 3: the migrants who came not just from Oklahoma obviously, but Arkansas,
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 3: throughout the Midwest and Texas of course.
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: But this wasn't all domestic migration. There were still quite
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: a few Mexicans as well, right.
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Mexican The farm workers tended to be the you know,
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 3: as I show in the film in the there's waves
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 3: of these exploited farm workers going back to Chinese and
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 3: the Asians and and just the native Californians, and you
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 3: had the and some from Mexico. And then you had
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 3: this mass migration in the thirties, and then World War
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 3: Two came along, so there suddenly became jobs for the whites,
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 3: and so the farm workers then became mainly Mexican and Filipinos.
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 3: So and that's you know, continued to this day really,
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 3: but the changeover was in World War Two when suddenly
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 3: there were jobs for Mexicans and Filipinos because of the
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 3: jobs for the whites and the World War two factories.
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 1: Look, the thing that you know why I want so
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: many younger people is to watch this. Is it. It's
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: another reminder because you know, there were plenty of critics
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: of Gothrie or Steinbeck at the time that would you know,
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: attack them for you know, some being against the country
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: or unpatriotic or un American. And now they're almost viewed
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: as incredible patriots in hindsight, right that they in some
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: ways believed in the idea of America more so than
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: those that were governing UH in that period. And what
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: they were what they were writing about. And it's just
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: such a look. I see it as an important reminder.
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: It's like, you know, today's protesters or tomorrow's patriots.
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, well, you know, as I show in the
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 3: film Groups of Wrath, they burned copies of Grapes of
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 3: Wrath that was taken off some of the Grayshal's Steinbeck
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 3: was denounced as a communist. You know, where have we
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 3: heard that before?
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: We'll shoot the twenties and thirties. I mean, that was
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: that was almost that was as caught you threw around
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: the communists the tack line as much as you see
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: it today, right.
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, And you know, and this land is your land,
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 3: even people who don't know a lot of other what
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 3: do you saw people a lot of people consider that
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 3: it should be our national anthem. H And you know,
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 3: and so that's a long way to go from him,
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 3: this radical from the nineteen thirties and nineteen forties, to
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 3: have a song that is, you know, considered by many
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 3: people its really should be our national anthem. They're singing
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 3: the verses that were never they were too radical to
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 3: be sung for decades. Now they're singing these the two
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 3: radical verses that weren't allowed before. So and you know,
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 3: I actually go back to, you know, the late nineteen
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 3: nineties when two of my favorite musician group beings Wilco
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 3: and Billy Bragg recorded in Mermaid Avenue, which won Grammys
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 3: and became a hallowed albums in our history with singing
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 3: lyrics that Woody wrote that had never been recorded or
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 3: never appeared on record.
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: And so.
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 3: They recently performed for the first time, performed the whole
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 3: album for the first time, and no idea, it's kind
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 3: of this Woody revival. There's kind of a Mermaid Avenue revival.
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: Now. You know, there's something about bad times that produce
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: great art, right, and so here's this horrible period in
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: our history. It's horrible just time and and sort of
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: you know, the Great Depression and what and yet we
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: have this incredible art that lives today from it? Can
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: we not?
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 2: Is that?
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: Is it? Sort of? Do we need sort of despair
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: to produce good art? Good music? I mean? Is this
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: the is this the key? I mean? You know there
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: there's that phrase in about inventors right where necessity is
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: you know what innovation you know comes from necessity? Essentially?
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: Do you need is one of the necessities for great
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: art to spare well.
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I guess that's always been a cliche
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 3: with people writing poetry or novels, you know, I'm not
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 3: sure it's true with musicians. I mean, everyone can have
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 3: their favorite periods of music and crossing over the last decades,
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 3: and so people might have a different answer in that
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 3: sometimes joyful, you know, you get into in some ways.
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 3: For example, the mid to late nineteen sixties is considered
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 3: a golden age by many boomers, and that was a
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 3: troubled time with Vietnam, but it also was a very
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 3: hopeful time and the flower Children and peace and love
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 3: and everything else. So I don't know how. I don't
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 3: know how you can easily fit that in now. The
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 3: Depression was a pretty bad period throughout, you might say.
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 3: And yet think of all the classic movies that were
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 3: made in that period, you know, think of the music,
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 3: think of Louis Armstrong, Duke Ellington. I mean, these are
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 3: the formative years for these people. Jazz was exploding, you know,
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 3: Hollywood was exploding. You know, it was great art and
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 3: everything else. So I don't know, it's a difficult, difficult question.
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 3: I thought you were going to lead up to what's
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 3: happening today. It's their great art.
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: Well, I do want to talk about it, but I
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: almost want to, but because I feel like the next
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: doc I want to see you do is sort of
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: the history of protest music, because I do.
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 3: Get in that a lot. I'm getting that a lot.
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: Are you Yeah? You look at it and to me,
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: there's there's you know, I would say the younger version
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: of myself would have said, hey, we didn't have any
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: great protest music, you know when I grew up in
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: the eighties, seventies and eighties. And then you realize and
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: then of course hip hop happens and you're like, yes,
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: we did, right, hip hop was this when you really look,
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: you know, you know, whether it's public enemy in particular
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 1: who you know, I could argue we're sort of the
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 1: in some ways they're a version of what a Guthrie right,
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: and what they were speaking to and the audience they
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 1: were speaking to and frankly trying to shock you know,
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: their own generation into this. So you see, we certainly
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: have it rations of this. It's just I wonder, you know,
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: do you is it a is it A? Is Woody
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: Guthrie just that good that we don't have a lot
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: of new protest material that has or frankly to be
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: totally cynical about it. Does protest music just don't doesn't sell,
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: and so artists are frankly just don't produce as much
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: of it.
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah, well, it's hard to say. You know, there's a
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 3: young he's not so young now, he's thirty or so.
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 3: Jesse Wells, who was became emerged just a year or
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 3: two ago singing many many protest songs. Uh, and you
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 3: know he won who He's up for various Grammys last year.
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 3: He's now touring as a mine act and so forth.
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 3: So some younger people would point into Jesse Wells is
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 3: not not a modern Woody Guthrie. But they'd say, here's
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 3: a guy who's out there doing one one protest song
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 3: after another every every night. So there is that that strain.
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 3: But you know it's interesting. I mean, who's become I guess,
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 3: rightly or wrongly, most associated with angry anti Trump and
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 3: anti ice and protests Bruce Springsteen and has been Bruce, Yeah,
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 3: who's like seventy five years old on him and Tom Morrell.
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 3: Tom Morrell came out of rage against the Machine, which
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 3: was a kind of a protest band if it were metal, well.
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: Punk and metal. You know, it's funny, you know, it's
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: you know, as a as a teenager, I just saw
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: alternative as of the music my parents didn't want to
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: listen to. When you really realize that that most quote
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: unquote al music, frankly, most quote unquote alternative music, particularly
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: in the eighties and nineties was very political. And that's
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: in some ways how it got classified that way, I.
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 4: Think, and how you define political, well, meaning it had
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 4: a message, right, they had something to say, they were
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 4: they had a message they were delivering that they were
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 4: hoping leaders would listen to.
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: That's I guess that's the way I look at it
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: when I say political. I mean, you know, you could
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: say anything's political, so I but they had a message.
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: It wasn't just like it wasn't just another song about
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: lost love, that's all. And I don't know, by the way,
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 1: I love my good lost love songs, right, we all
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: love those two, you know, but you get my drift, well,
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: you know you can go back different periods.
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 3: I mean, as you know, I was a top editor
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 3: Crowdaddy for most of the nineteen seventies. Uh and in
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 3: the final years there you had the clash who were
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 3: tremendously political, and you had a group like Blondie, you know.
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: And by the way, the clash though was where were
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: they categorized in the record store though, Greg, Yeah.
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 3: But both the classes Blondie were the same time. They
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 3: both were sort of considered punk er that era like,
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 3: and so there's always been that, you know, that kind
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 3: of kind of split things and going on. I mean,
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 3: you know, I go back to Springsteen in nineteen seventy two.
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 3: I'm that old, and I remember back then he had
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 3: I mean, he wasn't He was about as a political
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 3: as you could could think think then and he slowly emerged,
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 3: you know into the eighties and then nineties and so forth.
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 3: But he mainly he would come out, he would do benefits,
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 3: or he'd uh, he would campaign in the closing days
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 3: of a Democratic candidate for president, so it was like, oh, kay,
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 3: Bruce is going to do his big concert John Yeah,
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 3: for John Kerry or for Hillary Clinton. Whatever. He did
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 3: a lot of other good good works. He donated a
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 3: lot of money, he did benefits, helped vets and things
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 3: like that. But it's really only been in most recent
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 3: years where he's become a kind of almost.
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: Daily well, he's actually written some songs. Yeah, directly, he's
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: used his music to directly, right, I mean I think
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 1: about is it Murder Incorporated thirty one shots? Right yeah, yeah,
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: I mean that was a I've always found that one
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: to be incredibly powerful. And I remember when he did it.
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: He hadn't done something like that before, right, that direct yeah.
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 3: Right, yeah. And of course the Ghost of Tom Joad,
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 3: he goes back to the album he did in nineteen
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 3: ninety seven, which was not that for him, was not
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 3: that popular an album. So he did a people remembers that,
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 3: people talk about his classic album now classic album Nebraska,
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 3: just kind of a more agustic album. So he did
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 3: that again with the Ghost of Tom Joad and did
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 3: not find a big audience for it. Much more political album.
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 3: And so anyway, his evolution, let's say, has been quite
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 3: strike I was striking going back to the eighties and
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 3: even you know this year, he's just he's on stage
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 3: giving the speeches, you know, in the middle of the concerts, huh,
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 3: angry things and get out and uh, you know, I.
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: Feel like I need to bring up the mick. I
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: was surprised to hear Mick Jaggers say what he said
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 1: about about protesting music, he seems, Yeah, I think it.
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 3: Was slightly I I kind of didn't pay that much
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 3: attention to it. I think Mick sort of later claimed
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 3: he didn't really it was being taken wrong. You know
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 3: that he sort of met time for him. Yeah, it's
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 3: protest music isn't really for him and all and he
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 3: and he sort of claimed all his songs have protest
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 3: lyrics in it if you listen to them. But but yeah,
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 3: there's there's kind of a backlash to that. But it
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 3: certainly didn't hurt Burst commercially. And but it's I mean,
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 3: it is a sign of a sign of the times,
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 3: you know, of how angry this enchanted so many people are,
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 3: and you know we we if you look at Bruce's audience,
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 3: it does cross age barriers. You know, I know it's
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 3: weighted towards older people, uh, but you know it does. Uh,
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 3: it has reached a lot of other people, younger people,
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 3: and of course through YouTube or whatever. Sure, and Tom
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 3: Morello is a younger, a younger fellow, and he's always
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 3: been very radical and so him being part of that
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 3: also was a signal have him part of that that
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 3: tour and so forth.
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: Let's go back to Steinbeck here a minute, because you
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: noted that Grapes or Brath was it was a series
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: in the same in the newspaper first that was sort
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: of porn out of that, and it's essentially an accurate account,
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: but a fictional version of it. Yeah, you think it
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 1: was more It obviously can land some of that. Sometimes
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 1: this stuff can land more powerfully if it's quote unquote fiction.
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, have you ever thought about it? Well, however, story
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 3: gets out there. I mean, I've never done anything but
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 3: nonfiction books and nonfiction films. So Steinbeck obviously made a
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 3: great desay, but he was essentially a novelist, and he
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 3: did write that journalism series, and if he hadn't written it,
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 3: I don't think the Grapes of Wrath would have happened.
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: Steinbeck wrote a fictionalized account, but he did his own
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: reporting here, and he chose to use a novel as
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: his vehicle. You ever thought about doing that?
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 4: Yeah?
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 3: Now my books have all been nonfiction and my films involved.
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 3: But I can see the advantage of doing that, and
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 3: you know, his if you people reread Grapes of Wrath
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 3: they'll see that every other chapter in the books is
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 3: sort of nonfiction. He switches from following the Jodes up close,
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 3: and the next chapter is an overview of kind of
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 3: conditions they were.
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 1: So they're right, I do now that is that is
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: triggering that memory. I do remember that it would go.
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: It would be like you got almost like a news
• 1:28:05
  Speaker 1: report in between the story. Yeah.
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 3: Actually Melville did much the same thing with Moby Dick.
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 3: You had the incredible story of what's going on in
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 3: the ship, and then he has a lengthy chapter about Wales,
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 3: and you know, incredible, so but you know it's and
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 3: then Woody of course wrote his song. Tom Joden, based
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 3: after reading the book and seeing the movie, wrote this
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 3: the song which Steinbeck know I quote in the film
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 3: sort of. There are different versions of exactly what Steinbeck said,
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 3: but he said something like that little fellow wrote, I
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 3: wrote in six minutes what it took me six hundred
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 3: pages to say. So is that a couple of stories
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 3: or not?
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 5: Wow?
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 3: I don't know if it was. Its supposed to be
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 3: a little angry about it, but I certainly could take
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 3: it as a take it as a compliment.
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: So hey, is so anyway, would you put the protest
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 1: song Family Tree here of sort of Guthrie to Dylan
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 1: to Springsteen. Is that a smooth lineage?
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 3: Well, you know what, sometimes it's said that when you know,
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 3: Dylan grew up wanting to be Woody Guthrie and Springsteen
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 3: wanting to be Bob Dylan.
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 1: Then he also wanted to be Elvis Presley. He had
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: a little Elvis Presley people.
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 3: Uh, people always under if you talk to Bruce or
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 3: you know what what he writes about. Uh, going back
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 3: to his his teen years and the music he was,
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 3: he was definitely obsessed with Dylan. You don't people don't
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 3: necessarily associate him that much today Bruce more of a
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 3: you know, a rocker, and but he was. He definitely
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 3: was in some of his early effect his first album
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 3: Greeting from Asbury Park, he was accused of being a
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 3: kind of a new attempting to be a new Dylan
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 3: with the wordplay and everything else. So so uh, but yeah,
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 3: definitely Dylan was definitely what he go through was his
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 3: mentor mentor, and certainly Springsteen was inspired lyrically by by Dylan.
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 3: And then you know, Springsteen, I don't know, I'm sure
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 3: other people today there's a lot of people that come
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 3: out of that era, as you said, whether it's Eddie
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 3: Vedder or Tom Morello or whatever. Uh generation, and then
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 3: you can go generations beyond that.
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 1: So you know, it's one of those things where you
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: can really see it. Uh, you know, one of them.
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 2: I know.
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: A big blind spot for me though right now is
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 1: is Spanish language music. And I have no doubt in
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: my mind that there's probably a lot of protest music
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 1: I am missing in that genre at the moment.
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 3: You know, yeah, yeah, there's uh, you know, younger people
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 3: it's hard for people to find an audiences today in general.
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 3: They complain, people complained, so people singing protest music or whatever.
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 3: But you know, and you get old fogies like Neil
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 3: Young going out and releasing protest music. So I guess
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 3: that's an inspiration for people to live long enough to
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 3: be an old fogie and you know, still be plugged in.
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: But would Great to Wrath be a bestseller today if
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 1: it came out right now and we're about that sort
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 1: of the twenty first century migrant crisis.
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's it's I think it's possible. It's a
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 3: great point. Really, what surprised me was that the writing
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 3: Steinbeck be became we never became known as a hack,
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 3: but his writing became more well, let's say, loggie over
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 3: the over the decades, and some people questioned, you know,
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 3: how great a writer he was anymore? But you know
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 3: the writing and Grapes of Wrath is is fantastic, and
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 3: you know the message is obviously great, so uh, you
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 3: know it deserves it.
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 1: It sounds like it hit your ear pretty well for
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 1: the modern era.
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it really did. I mean, I recommend, I hope
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 3: our little chat today would spire to watch the film,
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 3: which as I said, is available at PBS dot org
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 3: and PBS apps, and to pick up Grapes of Wrath.
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 3: And that's that's a great start.
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 1: Let's land it. Let me land the plane this way.
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 1: If Tom Joad walked into America today, what would surprise
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: him and what would feel painfully familiar?
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 3: Well, he would be, I mean, partly Grapes of Wrath
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 3: and Woody's song is kind of you know, the Grapes
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 3: of Wrath. Tom Joe does not start out as a
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 3: big union activist or you know, he's sort of a
• 1:32:43
  Speaker 3: political you might say, and then he evolves that way,
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 3: and of course Woody was a tremendous union activist. So
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 3: I think probably what would surprise them today is how
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 3: far our unions have fallen, you know, the union membership
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 3: and in some cases again right.
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: Not at bottom anymore, though, Greg, you know we hit.
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 3: But ourdbooks, Starbucks union and all those.
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: Right, we hit bottom about twenty years ago. I do
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 1: feel like there's been this It's not a spike, right,
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: but it's gradual, right, where more and more folks understand
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 1: the necessity of frankly just worker rite protections.
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, well that's like that's the biggest as you know,
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 3: slow decline over the many decades and started hitting bottom.
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 3: But I think that would that's uh, that would be
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 3: the big one shock Tom Joad and uh and Woody
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 3: today would be how far that's fallen and uh and
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 3: all that. So that might be a good way to
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 3: good way to close.
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 1: I think it is. But let me ask you this
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 1: last question, because I'm like my head is spinning with
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: Nixon maxing. I'm sure you've seen and there it's this
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: bizarre it's almost like cult following of you know, it's
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 1: almost like they're people celebrating that Hey, Nixon did it
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 1: before Trump, and he should have gotten away with it.
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 1: I guess that's what Nixon maxing is. I'm trying to
• 1:34:13
  Speaker 1: figure it out. What do you say.
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 3: I don't know. It's an incredible I mean, in some
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 3: ways I welcome it because people are pointing out that,
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 3: you know, compared to Watergate. I mean usually when people
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 3: talk about compared to Watergate, they they mean, you know,
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 3: water Gate's overstated or something like that. But Trump's various corruption,
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 3: they don't even call them scandals. It's just like, you know, corruption,
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 3: or maybe it's day to day news so exceed, you know,
• 1:34:42
  Speaker 3: I just call it Tuesday, Yeah, what happened that it?
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 3: In some ways, I don't mind the reminder of people
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 3: people when they say Nixon should have gotten off. That's
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 3: another matter, right when they say, uh, you know, Nixon's
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 3: crimes were so minor compared to Trump, well that they
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 3: that may be true. So I guess that.
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 1: Well, my joke is always Nixon had shame.
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Nixon was. You know, I came to respect in
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 3: doing my book on him and Helen Gaeigen Douglas in
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 3: the nineteenth I came to respect him as a smart fellow,
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 3: you know, as a guy who was incredibly clever. Yes,
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 3: he was tricky, but very clever, very smart, very you know,
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 3: fast on his feet, and not just this very dark, drunken,
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 3: you know figure that he you know, became sure and
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 3: so I certainly would not wish for Nixon's return. But
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 3: you know, when I was growing up my family that
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 3: were New York State Republicans, rock Republicans. But what did
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 3: that mean then, Nelson Rockefeller, Ken Keating, pickup jabbits. There
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 3: was a moderate liberal Republican party. So and I was
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 3: a big Nixon fan in nineteen sixty, but compared to today,
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 3: they were, you know, almost less.
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 1: Well, I was just going to say, you know, you
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 1: mean Nixon the guy who wanted to expand healthcare, Nixon,
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 1: the guy who created the EBA. Right, Yeah, there's a
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 1: Nixon who you know, wanted to do outreach to China,
• 1:36:20
  Speaker 1: wanted to do nuclear just Harvey, No, I mean, you're right,
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 1: there's always been Nixon in some ways is quintessential sort
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 1: of It's almost like American history wrapped up in one
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 1: here's the good and the bad all rolled up into
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 1: one president.
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 3: And the evolution since what's happened to the Republican party
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 3: since then. So anyway, well, look chuck it off, thank
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 3: you and you got to go. I thank you once
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 3: again for you got it moments.
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 1: And well, hey, look I am I don't know if
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 1: I'm the president of the Greg Mitchell Fan Club vice president,
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 1: I know if I'm still an officer. But you know,
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 1: you know I'm an easy market in this stuff because
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 1: your work, you do something that's I know, insane these days.
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 1: You always grounded in historical fact. It's always great snaking it.
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 3: Well.
• 1:37:14
  Speaker 1: I left out the time Machine in last week's episode,
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 1: and part of that was intentional. When I dropped the
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 1: special two part episode on the Lakers and Mark Walter
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 1: and and whether this is a window into the next
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 1: financial crisis that we may face as a country, I
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 1: figured I wouldn't overload you with all of my regular
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 1: content with it as well in space this out well,
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 1: but I you know, I really love my time Machine
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 1: segments and this is a good one this week, and
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 1: so I figured I would share it here on this
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 1: Thursday episode. Don't worry, we still have a top five
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 1: lists that's going to happen as well. But I want
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 1: to go back to where I went back in time.
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 1: It went back seventy two years sort of, but keep
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 1: that number in mind, seventy two years. As I told
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 1: you in the last episode, I spent some time in
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 1: Indiana last week talking with a group of people who
• 1:38:04
  Speaker 1: are trying to do something that I think is both
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 1: necessary and really hard. Reform American democracy, you know, not
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 1: through a partisan lens, but through an American lens, right,
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 1: through a citizenship lens, through a Civis lens. Change some
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 1: of the incentives that reward polarization, modernized institutions that were
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 1: designed for a different country in a different century. Figure
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 1: out how we leave behind a political system that works
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 1: a little bit better than the one we inherited. And
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 1: whenever I have these conversations, I know how quickly we
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 1: start talking in election cycles twenty twenty six, twenty twenty eight,
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 1: maybe twenty thirty six. Right, it's understandable. That's how politics
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 1: trains us all to think. Right. But this week's time machine,
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 1: I hope is a useful corrective because it's this week
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 1: in nineteen twenty that we're going back to an important
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 1: moment in time, And it was this week that the
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 1: state of Tennessee became the state that finally put the
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 1: nineteenth Amendment over the top and guaranteed that voting rights
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 1: could not be denied on the basis of sex. And
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 1: the movement that got it there had begun seventy two
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 1: years earlier. Seventy two years. So let's go back to
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 1: the beginning July eighteen forty eight, Seneca Falls, New York.
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 1: And don't picture some enormous national convention with bunting all
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 1: over the place, right that it was not. It was
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 1: a few hundred people gathered in a Wesleyan chapel in
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 1: a small town in upstate New York. Elizabeth Katie Stanton
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 1: is there, Lucretia Mott, Frederick Douglass is there. They produce
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 1: something called the Declaration of Sentiments, and they consciously borrow
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 1: the language to the Declaration of Independence. We hold these
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 1: truths to be self evident, that all men and women
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 1: are created equal. Then they begin listing the ways America
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 1: is not living up to that proposition. Women can't vote.
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 1: Married women have extremely limited property right. Their wages at
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 1: the time can legally belong to their husbands. They have
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 1: limited access to higher education and many professions. They have
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 1: almost no independent political power. This is eighteen forty eight folks,
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 1: not fifteen forty eight. One hundred people eventually signed that declaration,
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 1: sixty eight women and thirty two men. And here's something
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 1: that's easy to forget. Even at Seneca Falls, voting rights
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 1: were controversial. Elizabeth Katie Stanton wanted the convention to demand
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 1: women's suffrage. Some of the people who had come to
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 1: a women's rights convention thought that was going too far. No, no, no,
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 1: let's not ask for voting rights yet. Let's just talk
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 1: about property rights some of that stuff. Think about that.
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 1: You're already radical enough to show up in Seneca Falls
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 1: in eighteen forty eight, and this idea sounds too radical
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 1: giving women the right to vote, but it just gives
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 1: you an idea of where the culture was in eighteen
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 1: forty eight. Frederick Douglas strongly supports stan. The resolution passes,
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 1: and one of the women who signs the declaration is
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 1: a teenager. Her name's Charlotte Woodward. She's eighteen or nineteen
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 1: at the time. She works making gloves in the area. Later,
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 1: she would remember being furious that she could work for
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 1: wages and still have almost no legal control over the
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 1: money she earned. That's what drove her so she signs
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 1: her name, and the clock begins, and then nothing happens
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 1: quite some time. Well, all right, that's not fair. A
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 1: lot happens, it just doesn't happen very quickly. Right, the
• 1:41:33
  Speaker 1: country goes through a civil war, slavery ends. The Fourteenth
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 1: Amendment establishes birthright, citizenship and the idea of equal protection,
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 1: an extraordinarily important part of the Constitution these days. The
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 1: Fifteenth Amendment says voting rights can't be denied because of race,
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 1: and that creates an enormous fight inside the women's suffrage movement.
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 1: Some suffragists support the fifteenth Amendment as an essential step forward,
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 1: sort of an incremental step. Others, including Stanton and Susan B. Anthony,
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 1: bitterly oppose enfranchising black men while all women remain excluded,
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 1: black and white. The movement then fractures over this issue,
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 1: and this is worth remembering. Successful political movements don't necessarily
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 1: move in straight lines. They split, they splinter, they argue,
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 1: mistakes get made, they occasionally make arguments that don't age
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 1: very well, and then they regroup. Right. I like to
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 1: use the example when I defend incrementalism of civil unions
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 1: before same sex marriage is some similarity you could just
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 1: see every one of these right. When you're demanding rights,
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 1: you have this tension between the incrementalists and those that
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 1: are impatient, and you kind of have some impatience, but
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 1: how much of it right? And that's sort of the
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 1: push pull here. Susan B. Anthony decides to vote illegally.
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 1: In eighteen seventy two, she's arrested and prosecuted. Some Western
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 1: states begin moving much faster than the federal government does.
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 1: Wyoming gives voting rights to women while it's still a territory.
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 1: Part of that was out of necessity, they needed more.
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 1: They excluded women of other they would have many voters.
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 1: Other Western states follow, and the national movement keeps trying
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 1: and losing. State referendums lose, federal efforts fail, Constitutional amendments fail. Then,
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 1: in eighteen seventy eight, Senator Aaron Sergeant of New York
• 1:43:29
  Speaker 1: introduces a women's suffrage amendment in Congress at the urging
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 1: of Susan B. Anthony. It doesn't pass, so they introduce
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 1: it again, and then they introduce it again, and then
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 1: they do it again. Essentially, the same amendment is introduced
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 1: in every session of Congress for more than forty four,
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 1: zero years, forty years. Think about how many times someone
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 1: had to say, well, we lost again, see you next year.
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 1: And generations begin. Lucretia Mott, who was there in Seneca Falls.
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 1: She dies in eighteen eighty. Elizabeth Katie Stan dies in
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 1: nineteen o two, again both before the nineteenth Amendment. Susan B.
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 1: Anthony dies in nineteen oh six. The people who started
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 1: this movement are disappearing, but the movement didn't disappear. New
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 1: leaders arrive. You had Kerrie Chapman, Alice Paul, new organizations,
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 1: new strategies. Some focus on winning a state by state.
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 1: Others decide that's taking too long, and they concentrate on
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 1: a federal constitutional amendment. Alice Paul and the National Women's
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 1: Party begin picketing outside Woodrow Wilson's White House in the
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 1: eighteen teens, and youssue Me in the nineteen teens. The
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 1: Silent Sentinels women standing outside the gates holding banners day
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 1: after day. They get arrested, some go on hunger strike,
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 1: some are force fed. Then World War One changes the
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 1: political environment again. Women are working in factories supporting the
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 1: war effort, serving as nurses. Still no right to vote
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 1: doing jobs. The country suddenly needs them to do, so
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 1: New York approves women's suffrage. In nineteen seventeen, Woodrow Wilson
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 1: finally endorses a constitutional amendment. The US House passes it,
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 1: the Senate doesn't, so they try again, and finally, in
• 1:45:24
  Speaker 1: nineteen nineteen, Congress passes what becomes the nineteenth Amendment. The
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 1: House vote is three h four to ninety, the Senate
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 1: vote is fifty six to twenty five. Now comes the
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 1: next problem thirty six states. Remember we weren't at fifty
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 1: then thirty six states, not thirty eight, which is what
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 1: it needs. Now have to ratify it. By the summer
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 1: of nineteen twenty, we're up to thirty five. They need
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 1: one more, and most of the remaining possibilities don't look
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 1: very promising. So suddenly everybody shows up in Nashville, suffragists,
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 1: anti suffragists, lobbyists, reporters, Kerry Chapman Katt. The Tennessee Senate
• 1:45:58
  Speaker 1: approves ratification, but the Tennessee House is another matter. The
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 1: fight becomes so intense that people begin calling it the
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 1: War of the Roses. Yellow roses for suffrage, red roses against,
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 1: and one of the legislators wearing a red rose is
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 1: Harry Burn. He's a Republican, he's twenty four years old.
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 1: He's from McMinn County in eastern Tennessee. He's considered an
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 1: anti suffrage vote. And on the morning of August eighteenth,
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 1: there's no particular reason for the Suffrages to think otherwise.
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 1: In fact, the opponents of ratification try to kill the
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 1: amendment by tabling it. The vote is forty eight forty eight,
• 1:46:37
  Speaker 1: so they try again, and again, the vote is forty
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 1: eight to forty eight. Harry Burn votes with the anti
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 1: suffrage forces both times, so everybody thinks they know where
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 1: Harry Burn stands. Except Harry Burn has something in his pocket.
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 1: It's a letter from his mom, feb Burne. She'd been
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 1: following the suffrage fight and she has some advice her
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 1: twenty four year old son. She tells them to vote
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 1: for suffrage. She tells them to go help Carrie Chapman cat,
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 1: and then she writes the line that would survive for
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 1: the history books. Hurrah and vote for suffrage and don't
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 1: keep them in down, and then don't forget to be
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 1: a good boy and help missus Kat put the rat
• 1:47:20
  Speaker 1: in ratification. Man, you really can't improve on a mother's
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 1: political advice. Huh. Then comes the actual ratification vote. Burns
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 1: name is called, and the twenty four year old legislator
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 1: wearing the red rose, which stood for anti suffrage votes,
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 1: I the room erupts. Ratification passes the Tennessee House fifty
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 1: to forty six. It's always funny. And once something people
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 1: know is going to pass, a few other people suddenly
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 1: want to jump on board. Right, So Tennessee became the
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 1: thirty sixth state. The nineteenth Amendment becomes part of the Constitution.
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 1: And this is the number I want you to focus
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 1: on again. Seventy two years after Seneca falls change his
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 1: heart in America. But change is not impossible. And sometimes
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 1: I love how the absurdity of history can work. Sometimes
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 1: took a lot of organizing, petitions, speeches, elections, defeats, arrests,
• 1:48:15
  Speaker 1: hunger strikes, in between a civil war and our First
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 1: World War, and in the end constitutional history. He turns
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 1: on a twenty four year old Republican state legislator from
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 1: the Union side of Tennessee by the way Eastern Tennessee
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 1: with a letter from his mother in his pocket. Now, look,
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 1: nothing's ever clean in history. We know that the itteenth
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 1: Amendments is the right to vote cannot be denied by
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 1: a kount of sex. It didn't mean that every American
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 1: woman suddenly was able to walk into a polling place
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 1: and vote in November nineteen twenty. Black women throughout much
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 1: of the South still faced the machinery of Jim Crow,
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 1: just like black men did, poll taxes, literacy tests, intimidation, violence.
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 1: Native American women weren't even recognized as US citizens until
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 1: nineteen twenty four, and citizenship still doesn't guarantee voting access everywhere.
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 1: You know. One of the funny things is I like
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 1: to do this. Go tell me where the right to
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 1: vote is in the US Constitution. Right, it doesn't exist.
• 1:49:13
  Speaker 1: We don't put one in the US Constitution, but quite
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 1: a few state constitutions have it. By the way, Asian
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 1: American women faced citizenship restrictions that also impacted voting rights. So,
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 1: of course August nineteen twenty was in the end, but
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 1: it was another important piece of democratic infrastructure. It was
• 1:49:29
  Speaker 1: an enormous one. But then another generation has to make
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 1: that promise real. That's how the stuff works, Which brings
• 1:49:36
  Speaker 1: me back to Charlotte Woodward. Do you remember I brought
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 1: her up at the beginning of this little story, the
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 1: teenager that was making gloves who walked into the Wesleyan
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 1: Chapel at Seneca Falls and forty eight nine eighteen forty
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 1: eight because she was irritated that the money she was
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 1: earning she didn't necessarily control. This is what's remarkable about history. Sometimes.
• 1:49:57
  Speaker 1: At the sixty eight women who signed the Declaration of Sentiments,
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 1: Charlotte Woodward was the only one known to have lived
• 1:50:03
  Speaker 1: long enough to actually see the Nineteenth Amendment ratified. So
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 1: think about that, sixty eight women put their names on
• 1:50:09
  Speaker 1: that document, and one lived to see the constitutional change
• 1:50:12
  Speaker 1: they were asking for. One got to see it from
• 1:50:15
  Speaker 1: beginning to end. Charlotte was by then in her nineties.
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 1: Elizabeth Katie Stanton didn't get to see it, neither did
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 1: Susan B. Anthony, neither did Lucretia mop But Charlotte did barely.
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 1: And as far as historians can determine, Charlotte Wodward never
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 1: actually did get to vote. For what it's worth, she
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 1: was ill on election day in nineteen twenty. Her eyesight
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 1: and health deteriorated afterward, and she didn't make it past
• 1:50:39
  Speaker 1: nineteen twenty one. So she spent seventy two years waiting
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 1: for the right to vote, lived long enough to win it,
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 1: but never got to cast a ballot. But I keep
• 1:50:49
  Speaker 1: thinking about that. After spending last week talking about political
• 1:50:52
  Speaker 1: reform to a group of civic minded people in Indiana,
• 1:50:56
  Speaker 1: we talk about fixing American democracy as if reform belongs
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 1: on aunt under Now I happen to think it should.
• 1:51:02
  Speaker 1: I think we should do small D democratic maintenance, infrastructure maintenance.
• 1:51:07
  Speaker 1: Every probably generation, things modernize. You know, we don't put
• 1:51:11
  Speaker 1: it on a schedule. I wish we did, but we don't,
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 1: and we think, well, maybe we can fix it with
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 1: the next Congress. But some things belong in a constitution.
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 1: So Seneca Falls the Tennessee took seventy two years. The
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 1: amendment itself was introduced in Congress for more than forty
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 1: years before even Congress finally passed it. Most of the
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 1: people who started the fight never saw the finish. So
• 1:51:37
  Speaker 1: I'm not trying to make an argument for patients. That's
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 1: not the point of this. It's actually an argument for
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 1: urgency because political infrastructure is something one generation often has
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 1: to build for the next one. And what makes the
• 1:51:52
  Speaker 1: Americans experiment. So amazing is that we have actually done this.
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 1: We have tried to make the more perfect union, and
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 1: we have accepted the premise that about once every other
• 1:52:06
  Speaker 1: generation we actually do something in our constitution. We don't
• 1:52:09
  Speaker 1: quite do it every generation I think we should, but
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 1: about every other generation we realize this, and the urgency
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 1: is there. But it is kind of a baton. And
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 1: I guess what I'm hoping for is that we know
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 1: we have the baton in our hands. We have got
• 1:52:29
  Speaker 1: if we do if we stare at this last fifteen
• 1:52:33
  Speaker 1: years of obvious of sort of obvious flaws that have
• 1:52:40
  Speaker 1: been exposed, right, I look at the Trump eras as
• 1:52:44
  Speaker 1: oddly a gift, right. He is like the black light
• 1:52:47
  Speaker 1: that shines itself inside a supposedly clean hotel room. And
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 1: the black light of Donald Trump has exposed all sorts
• 1:52:55
  Speaker 1: of I'll just say, horrible loopholes. These are things we
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 1: can fix. They're structural things we can fix. We can
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 1: try to shortcuts, you can rant about abolishing this or
• 1:53:10
  Speaker 1: expanding that. But in here, in the United States of America,
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 1: in a constitutional republic, real change is in the Constitution,
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 1: and we don't make it easy, but we don't make
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 1: it impossible, but it takes a bit of perseverance, urgency,
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 1: and oddly, I don't want to say patience, but an
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 1: impatience that knows that eventually we're going to get this right.
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 1: It's why I love to misquote Churchill. And I say
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 1: misquote because I've I said it a million times here
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 1: and I realized it I went onto one of these
• 1:53:51
  Speaker 1: Churchill sites. It's the It's among the most misquoted quotes. Right.
• 1:53:56
  Speaker 1: Supposedly Churchill said you can always count on the Americans
• 1:53:59
  Speaker 1: to be there after they've exhausted every other path. He
• 1:54:02
  Speaker 1: never said it, it made it, but boy, it made
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 1: us all feel better that we thought he might have
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 1: because he was so wise, and he obviously did have
• 1:54:11
  Speaker 1: the experience of watch waiting for the Americans to show
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 1: up for World War One, waiting for the Americans to
• 1:54:16
  Speaker 1: show up for World War Two, and in both cases,
• 1:54:18
  Speaker 1: once the Americans showed up, we were able to get
• 1:54:22
  Speaker 1: Europe in a better place. So I'm sure he agrees
• 1:54:27
  Speaker 1: with the sentiment. I can tell you this, that's the
• 1:54:30
  Speaker 1: best I've always thought it's the best way to describe America.
• 1:54:35
  Speaker 1: We eventually get it right after we exhaust a lot
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 1: of other paths, and so it means don't give up
• 1:54:43
  Speaker 1: on reform, but realize, if you want reform to stick,
• 1:54:47
  Speaker 1: it has to be structural. To me, the lesson from
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 1: Watergate was, you know reform, you know, legislation comes and goes,
• 1:54:55
  Speaker 1: a constitutional amendments stick and I think that that's where
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 1: the efforts should be. That's where the reform should be,
• 1:55:03
  Speaker 1: and that's that's probably the best place to start. And
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 1: I thought, of all weeks to do this, what a
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 1: great example of something that took way too long. It
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 1: is not something to be proud of of how long
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 1: it took, but it's a reminder that it did take
• 1:55:22
  Speaker 1: a more perfect union. That's always what we're striving for.
• 1:55:26
  Speaker 1: There's your time machine for the week.
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 5: The topas test, Top five, Top top Test.
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 1: All right, it's time for today top five list for
• 1:55:43
  Speaker 1: the week. And so looks it's been a thematic week.
• 1:55:46
  Speaker 1: I did my conversation about twenty twenty eight with j
• 1:55:48
  Speaker 1: mart I did another one with Solisa on Super Tuesday.
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 1: So why not do sort of my top five and
• 1:55:55
  Speaker 1: I'm going to give you two top fives here? Right,
• 1:55:57
  Speaker 1: there's the there's the top five that I understand where
• 1:56:02
  Speaker 1: it's sort of like who's working the hardest at the moment,
• 1:56:05
  Speaker 1: who's trying to make sure everybody knows And it's sort
• 1:56:09
  Speaker 1: of like the hardest workers that are that are well
• 1:56:13
  Speaker 1: even that it's those that are working the hardest, and
• 1:56:18
  Speaker 1: then there's those that have the most interesting potential that
• 1:56:22
  Speaker 1: I'm curious about. So let me start with with Aosa
• 1:56:26
  Speaker 1: And I'm going to put her at number one because
• 1:56:31
  Speaker 1: it's the same point I made with both Chris and Jonathan.
• 1:56:34
  Speaker 1: If she runs her the share of the attention economy
• 1:56:41
  Speaker 1: that she's going to grab out of the presidential race.
• 1:56:44
  Speaker 1: While I would have said pre Trump is always overrated,
• 1:56:49
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to sit here and over and say
• 1:56:50
  Speaker 1: it's overrated. The attention economy used to be. You know,
• 1:56:55
  Speaker 1: if the attention economy mattered, Howard Dean would have been
• 1:56:57
  Speaker 1: the nominee O four right, If the attention economy mattered,
• 1:57:00
  Speaker 1: John McCain would have defeated George W. Bush in two thousand.
• 1:57:03
  Speaker 1: So I don't you know a lot of times, you know,
• 1:57:08
  Speaker 1: presidential primaries in sort of this in the seventies, eighties,
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 1: and nineties, which confession were the most formative sort of
• 1:57:17
  Speaker 1: on me and what my analysis used to always shake
• 1:57:19
  Speaker 1: down to be. Presidential primaries were always about you know,
• 1:57:23
  Speaker 1: who was going. You know, there was always a tortoise
• 1:57:25
  Speaker 1: and hair and there was always somebody that leaped out
• 1:57:28
  Speaker 1: in front who inevitably wouldn't be able to hold on.
• 1:57:34
  Speaker 1: Whether it's Trump changed the equation, or social media change
• 1:57:37
  Speaker 1: the equation, or our decision to sort of there's no
• 1:57:40
  Speaker 1: more local media, and all media is thrown into one,
• 1:57:43
  Speaker 1: you know ecosystem, and the attention economy is everything. If
• 1:57:48
  Speaker 1: you assume this is the media environment we live in,
• 1:57:51
  Speaker 1: very much an intention economy. Well, then AOC has to
• 1:57:54
  Speaker 1: be seen as the front run. Now I've said that
• 1:57:56
  Speaker 1: and I've had people go but I don't think she
• 1:57:58
  Speaker 1: can win. Well, I'm skeptical that she can win in
• 1:58:00
  Speaker 1: a general election. I'm not telling you who I think
• 1:58:04
  Speaker 1: should I'm just telling you who I think would You know,
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 1: I guess is a better way to put it. So
• 1:58:10
  Speaker 1: right now you have to put AOC as the front runner.
• 1:58:13
  Speaker 1: I think if you take what's interesting is if you
• 1:58:16
  Speaker 1: take if she decides not to run. I don't think
• 1:58:19
  Speaker 1: there's a big front runner, and I know that there's
• 1:58:22
  Speaker 1: high name id and you know, so number two on
• 1:58:24
  Speaker 1: the list I'm gonna I'm actually gonna put and I
• 1:58:27
  Speaker 1: think I would put this because he's the next three people,
• 1:58:31
  Speaker 1: the next four people I'm rating on my top five list,
• 1:58:33
  Speaker 1: and I'm going to put it all here. Pete Puotagig's
• 1:58:35
  Speaker 1: number two, Kamala Harris at number three. And you may say,
• 1:58:38
  Speaker 1: why are you putting Pete ahead of Kamalo. Well, the
• 1:58:39
  Speaker 1: last time Pete and Kamala ran in the same primary,
• 1:58:42
  Speaker 1: Pete lasted longer than Kamala, So I think you know,
• 1:58:45
  Speaker 1: scoreboard number four, I'm gonna put Mark Kelly in number
• 1:58:49
  Speaker 1: Five'm gonna put Gavin Newsom. And some of you may say,
• 1:58:51
  Speaker 1: why do you have Gavin Newsim in there and all?
• 1:58:52
  Speaker 1: And others may say why is he down at number five?
• 1:58:57
  Speaker 1: I don't want to underestimate his desire for this. He's
• 1:59:00
  Speaker 1: he wants it. Gavin Newsom wants it. And if you're
• 1:59:04
  Speaker 1: willing to do whatever it takes to win, that matters.
• 1:59:07
  Speaker 1: That's worth something. Is it worth five points in a poll?
• 1:59:10
  Speaker 1: I don't know exactly what it is, but you know
• 1:59:12
  Speaker 1: he's a guy that isn't going to decide to hang
• 1:59:15
  Speaker 1: out in Hawaii for two weeks when he should be
• 1:59:17
  Speaker 1: raising money in Chicago or New York or whatever. Right.
• 1:59:20
  Speaker 1: I say this because infamously, you know, it was one
• 1:59:23
  Speaker 1: of the stories of the nineteen ninety two Democratic primary.
• 1:59:27
  Speaker 1: In December of nineteen ninety one, Tom Harkin, who for
• 1:59:30
  Speaker 1: a small period of time was had more an inside
• 1:59:36
  Speaker 1: track for getting a majority of the key labor endorsements
• 1:59:40
  Speaker 1: and was going to win Iowa by default because he
• 1:59:43
  Speaker 1: was an Iowa senator, he decided to go to the
• 1:59:45
  Speaker 1: Bahamas for a couple of weeks instead of raising money.
• 1:59:48
  Speaker 1: Bill Clinton doubled down and raised more money in Chicago
• 1:59:52
  Speaker 1: and New York and LA and he simply just outworked him.
• 1:59:57
  Speaker 1: And Tom Harkin didn't work hard enough his presidential race.
• 2:00:01
  Speaker 1: And you always have candidates to do that. John Glenn
• 2:00:04
  Speaker 1: in eighty four, a guy who started out hi I
• 2:00:06
  Speaker 1: just didn't work hard enough, versus a Gary Hart who
• 2:00:10
  Speaker 1: started at one percent and worked his you know what off,
• 2:00:13
  Speaker 1: Pete Bootage is working hard. Gavin Newsom is working hard.
• 2:00:17
  Speaker 1: Mark Kelly appears to be much more aggressive about running
• 2:00:21
  Speaker 1: than ever. And Mark Kelly, of all the people on
• 2:00:24
  Speaker 1: my top five list, AOC Pete Bootage, Kamala Harris Mark Kelly,
• 2:00:30
  Speaker 1: Gavin Newsom. There's only two are getting invites to red states,
• 2:00:37
  Speaker 1: and really of this top five list, and really only one,
• 2:00:40
  Speaker 1: and it's Mark Kelly. Everybody loves standing next to an astronaut,
• 2:00:46
  Speaker 1: and so Kelly is seen as And I remember No.
• 2:00:49
  Speaker 1: Six in two thousand and six, Barack Obama was the
• 2:00:51
  Speaker 1: Democrat red state Democrats were bringing into their state. They
• 2:00:55
  Speaker 1: did not bring in Hillary Clinton. And you saw Mary
• 2:00:57
  Speaker 1: Patola what she did when she found out her campaign
• 2:01:00
  Speaker 1: had done a fundraising email with Kamala Aris. She's like, no,
• 2:01:03
  Speaker 1: I don't want that. That's a that's a tea leaf
• 2:01:08
  Speaker 1: worth reading. It's why I'm a little bit skeptical of Harris.
• 2:01:11
  Speaker 1: I ultimately believe she doesn't run, but the fact that
• 2:01:15
  Speaker 1: she is, she is, she is working hard here right,
• 2:01:20
  Speaker 1: There's certain candidates that I'm not yet ready to say
• 2:01:24
  Speaker 1: or are actively campaigning for this. Wes Moore is not
• 2:01:27
  Speaker 1: actively campaigning. John Ossop is not actively campaigning. I get
• 2:01:31
  Speaker 1: that the prediction markets and in fact, I think Asoff
• 2:01:34
  Speaker 1: made his first sort of bad call, the little Natalie
• 2:01:38
  Speaker 1: Harp shot. It just sort of he didn't need it.
• 2:01:45
  Speaker 1: You know, you know, we already have and I think
• 2:01:48
  Speaker 1: this is what Democrats need to be careful of here.
• 2:01:51
  Speaker 1: I don't there's some voters out there that want another
• 2:01:54
  Speaker 1: aren't looking for somebody to behave like Trump. I think
• 2:01:58
  Speaker 1: the next president, if the Democrats win the presidency next time,
• 2:02:02
  Speaker 1: it's going to because they promise not to do that.
• 2:02:06
  Speaker 1: And you know what, what's interesting to me is that
• 2:02:08
  Speaker 1: when you watch Asoff sort of play clean up a
• 2:02:11
  Speaker 1: little bit later, you get the impression that maybe this
• 2:02:16
  Speaker 1: was a line and a speech to test out, and
• 2:02:21
  Speaker 1: maybe he thought, you know what, that isn't what I
• 2:02:23
  Speaker 1: want to be known as. I don't know if I
• 2:02:25
  Speaker 1: want to do that. I have a feeling we're not
• 2:02:26
  Speaker 1: going to. Now. Does anti Trump Twitter go crazy with
• 2:02:31
  Speaker 1: it because the White House went insane and how they
• 2:02:33
  Speaker 1: reacted with it, Sure, and it becomes yet another distraction
• 2:02:36
  Speaker 1: that Trump can't get out of. So you could say
• 2:02:39
  Speaker 1: it was certainly a clever OPO hit, if you will,
• 2:02:42
  Speaker 1: but I don't think it was good for the ASoft
• 2:02:44
  Speaker 1: brand on that front. But it also tells me he's
• 2:02:47
  Speaker 1: not yet thinking about and he shouldn't. He's got a
• 2:02:49
  Speaker 1: reelection to run. Andy Basheer is the one on here
• 2:02:54
  Speaker 1: who's right now traveling the country drying to help democratic governors.
• 2:02:59
  Speaker 1: He's probably the only other major Democrat and to a
• 2:03:02
  Speaker 1: lesser extent, rom Emmanuel who Red state Democrats are not
• 2:03:05
  Speaker 1: afraid to be seen with, you know, in part because
• 2:03:08
  Speaker 1: of the messaging, in part because of how they put
• 2:03:10
  Speaker 1: themselves a sheer, an actual red state Democrat himself being
• 2:03:13
  Speaker 1: governor of Kentucky. And that's not nothing here. But you know,
• 2:03:20
  Speaker 1: I'd be shocked if Josh Turick wants Gavin Newsom hanging
• 2:03:22
  Speaker 1: out with him, I'd be you know, maybe I'll be
• 2:03:28
  Speaker 1: curious to see if Gavin goes back to Michigan for
• 2:03:31
  Speaker 1: Abduel si Ed do just Jocelyn Benson want him out there?
• 2:03:35
  Speaker 1: I don't know, right is the California brand seen as
• 2:03:39
  Speaker 1: too liberal in some of these swing states. I'm going
• 2:03:43
  Speaker 1: to be watching the campaign invitations that Gavin Newsom gets
• 2:03:47
  Speaker 1: and accepts just to see to see that. But I don't.
• 2:03:51
  Speaker 1: I'm keeping him in fifth on my list just because
• 2:03:55
  Speaker 1: the guy wants it, and that, you know, being willing
• 2:03:59
  Speaker 1: to put in the one hundred hour weeks to do
• 2:04:02
  Speaker 1: this is worth something, and he will. So That's where
• 2:04:07
  Speaker 1: I have things stand right now, Do I think the
• 2:04:10
  Speaker 1: actual Democratic nominee is in my top five list at
• 2:04:13
  Speaker 1: the moment. Actually I don't. But I think it's the
• 2:04:16
  Speaker 1: problem is it's not you know, whether it's wes Moore,
• 2:04:21
  Speaker 1: whether it's a ro Kana because AOC decides not to run,
• 2:04:25
  Speaker 1: whether it's a Warnock because ASoft decides not to run,
• 2:04:29
  Speaker 1: whether it's a Pritzker because AOC doesn't run, and he
• 2:04:32
  Speaker 1: becomes the sort of the well funded progress the sort
• 2:04:37
  Speaker 1: of Tom Steyer with a smile, right, the self funder
• 2:04:40
  Speaker 1: who might be more likable. That's why I think this
• 2:04:46
  Speaker 1: is one very you know, these top five lists. I
• 2:04:49
  Speaker 1: enjoyed doing them. I'm always obsessed with potential, right. I
• 2:04:53
  Speaker 1: look at wes Moore as perhaps the best pure, sort
• 2:04:56
  Speaker 1: of on paper candidate that is sitting there with Warnock
• 2:05:01
  Speaker 1: and Kelly a close second and third. But do they
• 2:05:04
  Speaker 1: have the desire? Are they willing to put in that time?
• 2:05:07
  Speaker 1: Do they have you know that whole fire in the
• 2:05:09
  Speaker 1: belly matters here? A little bit is does wes Moore
• 2:05:15
  Speaker 1: see that for this cycle or is he willing to
• 2:05:17
  Speaker 1: bide his time for one more cycle? He's got younger kids.
• 2:05:21
  Speaker 1: It might be that he decides that he wants to
• 2:05:23
  Speaker 1: wait a cycle. Maybe he's been saying that, you know,
• 2:05:25
  Speaker 1: he's been saying he's not a candidate for twenty eight
• 2:05:27
  Speaker 1: and a bunch of us haven't believed him. Maybe we
• 2:05:30
  Speaker 1: should believe him because I haven't. He hasn't gone out
• 2:05:33
  Speaker 1: of his way to insert himself in some of these
• 2:05:37
  Speaker 1: national conversations the way Rab Emmanuel has, Andy Basher, et cetera.
• 2:05:41
  Speaker 1: So that's why the you know, this is my top
• 2:05:44
  Speaker 1: five for now AOC Pete pooterajidj Kamala, Harris Mark, Kelly,
• 2:05:49
  Speaker 1: Gavin Newsom. But if I'm being honest, the likelihood that
• 2:05:54
  Speaker 1: the nominee is in that top five is probably like
• 2:05:56
  Speaker 1: fifty two percent chance, where there's almost as good of
• 2:06:00
  Speaker 1: a chance of somebody else not name those five who
• 2:06:05
  Speaker 1: ends up the eventual Democratic nominator. This episode of the
• 2:06:13
  Speaker 1: Check podcast is brought to you by Fandel. Baseball fans
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  Speaker 3: Ask Chuck.
• 2:07:59
  Speaker 1: I am going to pla ledge for I'm going to
• 2:08:04
  Speaker 1: say it now, Labor Day weekend is going to be
• 2:08:07
  Speaker 1: the blowout Ask Chuck weekend. So I'm gonna I'm gonna
• 2:08:12
  Speaker 1: do a marathon Q and a session there because I'm
• 2:08:15
  Speaker 1: letting this stuff pile up a little bit, and I
• 2:08:17
  Speaker 1: hate letting it pile up. You've guys got some fun
• 2:08:20
  Speaker 1: questions in here, some of them I have got to
• 2:08:23
  Speaker 1: do a little research on. But I am going to
• 2:08:25
  Speaker 1: do a massive you know, that'll be some combination of
• 2:08:29
  Speaker 1: of me wanting to talk too much about the college
• 2:08:32
  Speaker 1: football season and cleaning up the August Ask Chuck mailbox.
• 2:08:38
  Speaker 1: So if you haven't heard me answer your question, it
• 2:08:42
  Speaker 1: doesn't mean I'm not going to. It just means I
• 2:08:46
  Speaker 1: ran out a little bit of time. Now, all right,
• 2:08:48
  Speaker 1: We're gonna start from Michael t in Chicago, and he writes, Hey,
• 2:08:51
  Speaker 1: Democrats all over the country, are claiming they'll bring accountability
• 2:08:53
  Speaker 1: to the Trump administration if they win Congress in November,
• 2:08:56
  Speaker 1: But can they really, Well, what happened if Trump and
• 2:08:58
  Speaker 1: company simply ignore the subpoena? Isn't it up to the
• 2:09:01
  Speaker 1: Justice Department, which is now run by Trump's personal attorney,
• 2:09:04
  Speaker 1: to enforce them and prosecute those who ignore them? And
• 2:09:06
  Speaker 1: wouldn't Trump just pardon anyone who is prosecuted. Well, first
• 2:09:11
  Speaker 1: of all, you are your cynicism is well earned. I
• 2:09:15
  Speaker 1: am not going to sit here and say that your
• 2:09:16
  Speaker 1: scenarios are not completely out of left field. And in fact,
• 2:09:22
  Speaker 1: the most important development that took place over the last
• 2:09:25
  Speaker 1: two weeks is this is this emergence of an OLC memo,
• 2:09:30
  Speaker 1: which is essentially a way for the administration to essentially
• 2:09:35
  Speaker 1: delay a subpoena. What do I mean? So, all of
• 2:09:39
  Speaker 1: a sudden, the Department of Justice wanted to let us
• 2:09:43
  Speaker 1: know there was a new interpretation of executive privilege that
• 2:09:47
  Speaker 1: the Office of Legal Counsel has decided to try to argue.
• 2:09:51
  Speaker 1: And there's significance when you put it as a memo before.
• 2:09:55
  Speaker 1: When you do this, when you offer up a finding
• 2:09:58
  Speaker 1: before somebody's asked, it does provide an excuse for the
• 2:10:06
  Speaker 1: courts to sort of delay the enforcement of a subpoena.
• 2:10:08
  Speaker 1: So let me walk you through this. What Trump is,
• 2:10:15
  Speaker 1: what the Trump white House is trying to get the
• 2:10:17
  Speaker 1: Department of Justice to argue, is that this idea of
• 2:10:19
  Speaker 1: executive privilege, which which is allowed for presidents to shield
• 2:10:24
  Speaker 1: West wing staff from being having to testify in Capital Hill.
• 2:10:30
  Speaker 1: And the theory is that, you know, hey, presidents should
• 2:10:34
  Speaker 1: be able to have conversations with their you know, they're
• 2:10:40
  Speaker 1: not elected officials. They are they are they are, they
• 2:10:45
  Speaker 1: are staffers, that they should be able to allow that
• 2:10:48
  Speaker 1: that council shouldn't be subject to subpoena. That they should
• 2:10:54
  Speaker 1: be able to, you know, not have to testify to
• 2:10:56
  Speaker 1: what the president was thinking or saying at the moment.
• 2:11:00
  Speaker 1: And a lot of times you'll see, you know, Congress
• 2:11:03
  Speaker 1: will try to subpoena a chief of staff, a general counsel,
• 2:11:08
  Speaker 1: a national security officer, something like that. And you know,
• 2:11:14
  Speaker 1: every once in a while a White House might waive
• 2:11:16
  Speaker 1: executive privilege. It's extraordinarily rare that they do it. It's
• 2:11:19
  Speaker 1: a big deal when a White House does it. It
• 2:11:22
  Speaker 1: has happened a handful of times, but most of the time.
• 2:11:27
  Speaker 1: Here's the thing. Nobody wants to testify before Congress out
• 2:11:30
  Speaker 1: of fear that they're going to somehow be accused of
• 2:11:34
  Speaker 1: lying and all of a sudden if they get you know,
• 2:11:36
  Speaker 1: if you lie before Congress, you can end up in
• 2:11:38
  Speaker 1: jail right for perjury. So a lot of people would
• 2:11:42
  Speaker 1: like to have the shield of executive privilege. Well, it's
• 2:11:46
  Speaker 1: perfectly reasonable for staff to fall under that cabinet secretary's
• 2:11:51
  Speaker 1: passador's executives, all that stuff. But what the Trump administration
• 2:11:55
  Speaker 1: wants to argue is that private citizens members, you know,
• 2:12:00
  Speaker 1: CEOs that come in and have meetings with the president.
• 2:12:03
  Speaker 1: Perhaps wealthy individuals from organizations Oh, I don't know, like
• 2:12:11
  Speaker 1: SpaceX or open AI make a deal with the president.
• 2:12:20
  Speaker 1: Well what was the transaction? Maybe it's the crypto guys.
• 2:12:24
  Speaker 1: They want to try to take the executive privileged shield
• 2:12:29
  Speaker 1: and have it apply to private citizens who have meetings
• 2:12:32
  Speaker 1: with the president. And you know what they're up to, right,
• 2:12:36
  Speaker 1: because Democrats know they're not going to be able to
• 2:12:38
  Speaker 1: find out, well, how did this investment in world liberty
• 2:12:44
  Speaker 1: financial work that sort of enriched the Trump family. They're
• 2:12:50
  Speaker 1: not going to be able to subpoena Howard Luckneck to
• 2:12:55
  Speaker 1: have this conversation the Commerce Secretary or Steve wit Cof
• 2:13:00
  Speaker 1: or Jared Kushner, they have, you know, just enough standing
• 2:13:04
  Speaker 1: that they have the shield of executive privilege in it
• 2:13:07
  Speaker 1: sort of meets the letter of the of the of
• 2:13:12
  Speaker 1: the law on that one. But to have this extent
• 2:13:15
  Speaker 1: to just any private citizen that goes in and speaks
• 2:13:19
  Speaker 1: to the President, it would be quite the expansion of that.
• 2:13:23
  Speaker 1: But by simply putting out this OLC memo, what the
• 2:13:27
  Speaker 1: White House is guaranteed is that any subpoena that the
• 2:13:30
  Speaker 1: House puts out there against any company that is rumored
• 2:13:36
  Speaker 1: to have made a deal, or maybe maybe they want
• 2:13:39
  Speaker 1: a subpoena everybody who contributed to the building fund, or
• 2:13:42
  Speaker 1: maybe they want a subpoena anybody that contributed to the
• 2:13:48
  Speaker 1: inaugural fund. That you know, it all felt like it
• 2:13:51
  Speaker 1: was some sort of pay for you know, you got
• 2:13:56
  Speaker 1: this in exchange for this regulatory situation to go down.
• 2:14:00
  Speaker 1: I've seen some evidence it looks like of sort of
• 2:14:03
  Speaker 1: financial transactions right around the time that the FDA pulled
• 2:14:07
  Speaker 1: back on some of these issues with vape, with vaping
• 2:14:11
  Speaker 1: flavors and things like that. There is genuinely a place
• 2:14:16
  Speaker 1: to go for Democrats to find out the full story
• 2:14:18
  Speaker 1: if they want to find out was this done, you know,
• 2:14:20
  Speaker 1: is essentially a regulation sold to the highest bidder type
• 2:14:23
  Speaker 1: of thing. The place you would go is you would
• 2:14:27
  Speaker 1: subpoena you know, perhaps the CEOs of these companies, you know,
• 2:14:31
  Speaker 1: maybe it's the CEO of Altria or whatever it is.
• 2:14:36
  Speaker 1: And now when that subpoena gets issued, it's then going
• 2:14:40
  Speaker 1: to go before it's then going to go immediately to
• 2:14:44
  Speaker 1: court to see if they qualify under this interpretation of
• 2:14:48
  Speaker 1: executive privilege. So I know that was a long and
• 2:14:51
  Speaker 1: windy and windy answer, but what it does is I
• 2:14:54
  Speaker 1: do think it's going to be quite difficult for Democrats
• 2:14:57
  Speaker 1: to have show hearings of private it folks in the
• 2:15:01
  Speaker 1: private sector who may have participated in this paid a
• 2:15:05
  Speaker 1: play scheme that Trump is essentially put together for his presidency.
• 2:15:11
  Speaker 1: You know, at a minimum, it will slow down the
• 2:15:13
  Speaker 1: opportunity to find out what happened, and at a maximum,
• 2:15:16
  Speaker 1: it might shield it completely until he's fully out of
• 2:15:20
  Speaker 1: office in twenty nine. So you know, now you as
• 2:15:25
  Speaker 1: for the enforcement of subpoenas, Congress could enforce their own
• 2:15:29
  Speaker 1: subpoenas if they chose to, they could change the rule
• 2:15:33
  Speaker 1: that would you know, they have their own police force
• 2:15:35
  Speaker 1: if they chose to. They've always just referred to the
• 2:15:38
  Speaker 1: Justice Department. Well, you can't whatever gets referred to this
• 2:15:41
  Speaker 1: Justice department. Todd Blanche is going to do whatever his
• 2:15:43
  Speaker 1: personal client, Donald Trump wants him to do. He himself
• 2:15:46
  Speaker 1: has all but said it. I mean, at least Todd
• 2:15:50
  Speaker 1: Blanche is not pretending he's going to do anything other
• 2:15:53
  Speaker 1: than the bidding of Trump at the Justice Department. I
• 2:15:57
  Speaker 1: guess he gets points for honesty, but he's also going
• 2:16:00
  Speaker 1: to be the last person to enforce a congressional subpoena
• 2:16:04
  Speaker 1: that somebody decides to ignore. So the but Congress can
• 2:16:09
  Speaker 1: decide on its own to use its own They have
• 2:16:13
  Speaker 1: their own police force if they choose to use it
• 2:16:15
  Speaker 1: and empower them to enforce a subpoena. The question is
• 2:16:19
  Speaker 1: will they And that's going to be I think if
• 2:16:23
  Speaker 1: Democrats win both the House and the Senate, that is
• 2:16:25
  Speaker 1: a rule change that they make and that they because
• 2:16:28
  Speaker 1: especially if you have a Justice department that has no
• 2:16:30
  Speaker 1: interest in enforcing congressional subpoenas. Next question comes from Andre
• 2:16:37
  Speaker 1: in La. Here's a topic I'm curious to get your
• 2:16:40
  Speaker 1: thoughts on. Why were two outsider candidates with little political experience,
• 2:16:44
  Speaker 1: who are badly outspent and opposed by the Democratic establishment
• 2:16:47
  Speaker 1: able to be so competitive in the Michigan Senate in
• 2:16:49
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin governor's race. Isn't it the more important story than
• 2:16:52
  Speaker 1: polling errors regards Andrea in La. Sure, but I don't
• 2:16:59
  Speaker 1: think that's This is not a new development, right there's
• 2:17:04
  Speaker 1: I don't I think in you know, I think Wisconsin
• 2:17:11
  Speaker 1: it's less interesting because you've sort of had, you just
• 2:17:15
  Speaker 1: had a mess of a primary among the so called establishment.
• 2:17:19
  Speaker 1: I think Michigan, you could argue, is a better example,
• 2:17:21
  Speaker 1: except you know, yes, abdul as i ed was badly outspent,
• 2:17:25
  Speaker 1: but he was incredibly well sourced for an insurgent candidate,
• 2:17:29
  Speaker 1: and he had also already run statewide before, which in
• 2:17:32
  Speaker 1: itself is it's almost like your own in kind contribution.
• 2:17:37
  Speaker 1: Haley Stevens had never run statewide before. So I hear
• 2:17:43
  Speaker 1: you on that. I take your point, and I certainly
• 2:17:46
  Speaker 1: think it shows you that there is a huge divide
• 2:17:49
  Speaker 1: in the Democratic Party. And the question is is this
• 2:17:52
  Speaker 1: divide on policy or emotion? I think it's a I
• 2:17:57
  Speaker 1: think this is the divide between is the Democratic Party
• 2:18:02
  Speaker 1: about governing or the Democratic Party need to re calibrate
• 2:18:06
  Speaker 1: itself as fighters. And I think you do have about
• 2:18:09
  Speaker 1: half the electorate that feels like, hey, this is a
• 2:18:11
  Speaker 1: moment to fight what's happening on the right, versus a
• 2:18:16
  Speaker 1: chunk of Democrats who think, you know, if we just
• 2:18:18
  Speaker 1: if we just get power and govern better, we can
• 2:18:22
  Speaker 1: win the argument that way. I think that's the true
• 2:18:26
  Speaker 1: animating distinction inside the party. You know that sort of
• 2:18:30
  Speaker 1: sorts itself between left versus center left, I guess, but
• 2:18:34
  Speaker 1: I really think it is more. Here's what I would
• 2:18:37
  Speaker 1: tell you. I'd encourage you to listen to my conversation
• 2:18:39
  Speaker 1: with Andre Carson in my Newsphere interview this week. That's out.
• 2:18:43
  Speaker 1: Andre Carson was one of the first Muslim Americans elected
• 2:18:45
  Speaker 1: to Congress out of Indianapolis. He's been serving almost nine terms.
• 2:18:51
  Speaker 1: He is probably the definition of pragmatic progressive. And there's
• 2:18:55
  Speaker 1: easily some people who ran against him at a primary
• 2:18:58
  Speaker 1: who argued he wasn't you know, he wasn't fighting hard enough.
• 2:19:02
  Speaker 1: He's ideologically closer to where most progressives are today. But
• 2:19:08
  Speaker 1: it's really entile. It's really in tone and temperament that
• 2:19:11
  Speaker 1: I think the distinction comes. Right, Haley Stevens was not
• 2:19:16
  Speaker 1: arguing to upend the democratic establishment, abdul Lsi it was,
• 2:19:21
  Speaker 1: and I think that was the distinction that powered him
• 2:19:23
  Speaker 1: a little bit, that it was less an ideology and
• 2:19:25
  Speaker 1: more on sort of who's going to punch them in
• 2:19:28
  Speaker 1: the nose? And so I think that's why that's the
• 2:19:32
  Speaker 1: divide that's there. But I mean, I could argue we've
• 2:19:36
  Speaker 1: seen very competitive primaries in the past too, So that's
• 2:19:41
  Speaker 1: why I'm not sure. I'm not sure your premise. Again,
• 2:19:49
  Speaker 1: I take your point, but I don't know if in
• 2:19:52
  Speaker 1: that sense we learned anything new that Hey, look, there
• 2:19:55
  Speaker 1: was insurgent candidates. Both states are places where it is
• 2:20:02
  Speaker 1: easier for insurgents to catch fire for what it's worth,
• 2:20:06
  Speaker 1: particularly insurgents on the left, and there's a history of
• 2:20:09
  Speaker 1: it in both dates. Marcus writes in he goes, why
• 2:20:13
  Speaker 1: does it feel like Trump can basically do whatever he
• 2:20:14
  Speaker 1: wants unchecked? Maybe he's not a true authoritarian, but he's
• 2:20:17
  Speaker 1: getting pretty close, especially with a Congress and a Justice
• 2:20:19
  Speaker 1: Department that refuses to stand in his way. I just
• 2:20:22
  Speaker 1: look at this vaccine decisions, his military direction, education, and
• 2:20:25
  Speaker 1: now what he's doing with the USDA, just to name
• 2:20:27
  Speaker 1: a few. And I very much fear the state of
• 2:20:29
  Speaker 1: things in the future. It's not even about owning the
• 2:20:31
  Speaker 1: Libs anymore. Some of his decisions make no sense. What
• 2:20:34
  Speaker 1: are your thoughts? Some have two minds in this. I
• 2:20:37
  Speaker 1: hear what you're saying. On he seems to just do
• 2:20:39
  Speaker 1: whatever he wants and nobody even when it's obviously ridiculous,
• 2:20:45
  Speaker 1: like what he's you know, his love affair with Kim
• 2:20:48
  Speaker 1: Jong un, right, that is just this is not idea, Like,
• 2:20:52
  Speaker 1: what is wrong with this guy? What are you doing
• 2:20:55
  Speaker 1: to our alliances in Asia? Of all countries, south Korea?
• 2:20:59
  Speaker 1: Really we're doing We're going to punish them, and now
• 2:21:06
  Speaker 1: you're going to push South Korea into the arms of China.
• 2:21:10
  Speaker 1: This is I mean, I am alarmed at the lack
• 2:21:15
  Speaker 1: of alarm by whatever's left of the normal Republicans in Congress.
• 2:21:21
  Speaker 1: Now it's August and they're not here and there's not
• 2:21:25
  Speaker 1: microphones being shoved in their face. But look, the fact
• 2:21:28
  Speaker 1: that Todd Blanchcott confirmed shows you. I mean, the people
• 2:21:32
  Speaker 1: who have surrendered is the governing wing of the Republican Party.
• 2:21:36
  Speaker 1: The governing wing of the Republican Party whispers to all
• 2:21:38
  Speaker 1: of US reporters that they think what he's doing is crazy.
• 2:21:41
  Speaker 1: Whispers to all of US reporters, well, you know, we'll
• 2:21:44
  Speaker 1: be able to stop the worst excesses of him. They
• 2:21:46
  Speaker 1: don't try to stop any of the words. The only
• 2:21:48
  Speaker 1: good news in all of this stuff is that most
• 2:21:50
  Speaker 1: of the stuff he's done is executive orders, and most
• 2:21:53
  Speaker 1: of it can be undone. But the problem take the
• 2:21:56
  Speaker 1: vaccine executive order, so it can be undone and literally January.
• 2:22:01
  Speaker 1: My god, whoever's the next president may not be, but
• 2:22:04
  Speaker 1: it's going to take them two days to rescind some
• 2:22:07
  Speaker 1: of these executive orders. They're going to get a cramp
• 2:22:10
  Speaker 1: in their hand, right. I don't because I don't think
• 2:22:12
  Speaker 1: you use the auto pen on day one, right, so
• 2:22:18
  Speaker 1: I I uh. But the perception damage, I mean, we've
• 2:22:22
  Speaker 1: already seen it. Right, Fewer people, or they're more. More
• 2:22:26
  Speaker 1: parents are are asking for exemptions for their kids. I mean,
• 2:22:34
  Speaker 1: it's it's uh, I think it's unsafe for some families
• 2:22:38
  Speaker 1: to send their kids to school. If you get to
• 2:22:40
  Speaker 1: a point where you have so many kids trying to
• 2:22:41
  Speaker 1: get exemptions from from vaccines. This is dangerous for society.
• 2:22:46
  Speaker 1: I find this vaccine stuff to be literally the most
• 2:22:49
  Speaker 1: ludicrous of all of the own the LIB decisions. What
• 2:22:54
  Speaker 1: the right is doing to its own people, What Trump
• 2:22:57
  Speaker 1: and Kennedy are doing to their own voters inly getting
• 2:23:00
  Speaker 1: them sick, intentionally making them more vulnerable to disease. It's
• 2:23:08
  Speaker 1: offensive that they intentionally want to see harm done to Americans,
• 2:23:12
  Speaker 1: and in their own perverted way, they don't. I guess
• 2:23:15
  Speaker 1: they really believe that this isn't harmful, But I'm sorry.
• 2:23:21
  Speaker 1: The science is the science. This is extraordinarily harmful. So yeah,
• 2:23:27
  Speaker 1: you know, I all I'll say is you say he's
• 2:23:31
  Speaker 1: going unchecked. Well, I think the voters are speaking. And
• 2:23:36
  Speaker 1: the voters only have one way to express their concern
• 2:23:39
  Speaker 1: about this. It's voting. And you see more Democrats and
• 2:23:42
  Speaker 1: more independence where they can vote in democratic primaries, and
• 2:23:46
  Speaker 1: you see fewer Republicans showing up to voting primaries. And
• 2:23:50
  Speaker 1: you see his approval rating going down in quality polls,
• 2:23:53
  Speaker 1: and you see his disapproval rating going up every day
• 2:23:59
  Speaker 1: his Constitution and see shrinks every day his grip on
• 2:24:02
  Speaker 1: power lessons. But it doesn't mean that the damage from
• 2:24:06
  Speaker 1: his tenure over US in American politics isn't extensive and
• 2:24:12
  Speaker 1: isn't going to take probably year, probably decades, hopefully just years.
• 2:24:19
  Speaker 1: I hope it's not decades plural, but the damage is
• 2:24:24
  Speaker 1: some of the damage he's done, particularly in public health,
• 2:24:29
  Speaker 1: and I would argue what he's done in the Middle East.
• 2:24:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is again a generational mistake that he's
• 2:24:38
  Speaker 1: made in the Middle East with Iran, and it's going
• 2:24:41
  Speaker 1: to set back American alliances, American prestige. For a party
• 2:24:50
  Speaker 1: that used to care about American exceptionalism, he is literally
• 2:24:53
  Speaker 1: doing what it takes to make America the least exceptional
• 2:24:56
  Speaker 1: it can be. And it's it's a gut punch if
• 2:25:02
  Speaker 1: you love this country. It's a gut punch if you
• 2:25:06
  Speaker 1: think America values in general should be You know that
• 2:25:12
  Speaker 1: a country with our with our values pre Trump had
• 2:25:19
  Speaker 1: sort of earned its place to be the world superpower,
• 2:25:24
  Speaker 1: and he's doing his best to destroy everything that has
• 2:25:29
  Speaker 1: been built over the last seventy years. All right, I'm
• 2:25:36
  Speaker 1: going to get two quick more questions here. This comes
• 2:25:40
  Speaker 1: from Jake. He's an unaffiliated voter in Colorado's first district.
• 2:25:44
  Speaker 1: This is the one Diana to get just lost, Hey, Chuck,
• 2:25:47
  Speaker 1: with John Asoff now openly referring to Natalie Harp's unusually
• 2:25:50
  Speaker 1: close relationship with the president. How do mainstream media newsrooms
• 2:25:53
  Speaker 1: decide whether and how to cover this story? Why do
• 2:25:55
  Speaker 1: you think there has not been more investigative reporting in
• 2:25:57
  Speaker 1: mainstream media so far? Do you believe independent media should
• 2:26:00
  Speaker 1: play in the same set of standards here or a
• 2:26:02
  Speaker 1: different standard? I you know, this is one of those where,
• 2:26:08
  Speaker 1: for what it's worth, mainstream media has always been a
• 2:26:11
  Speaker 1: bit more cautious on this and always will. And there's
• 2:26:14
  Speaker 1: and you know, these things get thrown into the ether,
• 2:26:17
  Speaker 1: always by outsiders in some form. Sometimes it's a gossam columnist,
• 2:26:21
  Speaker 1: sometimes it's a politician. I shared earlier where I don't
• 2:26:25
  Speaker 1: think it was a good look for us off it's
• 2:26:29
  Speaker 1: now as a piece of op If if your whole
• 2:26:31
  Speaker 1: goal is to make Trump distracted and agitated, well, apparently
• 2:26:36
  Speaker 1: this White House, you know, methinks you doth protest too much.
• 2:26:41
  Speaker 1: So if the goal is to make him nuts and
• 2:26:44
  Speaker 1: make him make mistakes, that's a pretty good topic to
• 2:26:47
  Speaker 1: do it. What do you do with it? Right? The
• 2:26:50
  Speaker 1: New York Times reported on these letters, it is there's
• 2:26:58
  Speaker 1: no It's sort of like, is it news that Trump
• 2:27:03
  Speaker 1: and Millennia are not really close?
• 2:27:05
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 2:27:06
  Speaker 1: Like we all kind of what is news here? And
• 2:27:10
  Speaker 1: at what point is it relevant to how he conducts
• 2:27:15
  Speaker 1: his business? So I find myself, look, I I have
• 2:27:24
  Speaker 1: more questions about Natalie Harp than I do Donald Trump.
• 2:27:27
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump has always looked for sickophants. Donald Trump has
• 2:27:31
  Speaker 1: always surrounded himself and anybody who pays him the most
• 2:27:34
  Speaker 1: attention is the person he wants around him. So the
• 2:27:41
  Speaker 1: news here isn't that Donald Trump has a has somebody
• 2:27:47
  Speaker 1: who's obsessed with him and he loves having this person around.
• 2:27:53
  Speaker 1: The real sort of, you know, the real question is
• 2:27:58
  Speaker 1: what is now? Maybe the White House got all angry
• 2:28:00
  Speaker 1: about it because Milania finds this Natalie Harp thing humiliating,
• 2:28:04
  Speaker 1: especially when those letters leaked. But you know, I know,
• 2:28:10
  Speaker 1: in a weird way, while I have I have some
• 2:28:16
  Speaker 1: you know, I'm there's a part of me that says,
• 2:28:19
  Speaker 1: I don't know if there's a story here. At the
• 2:28:21
  Speaker 1: same time, Donald Trump traffics in every garbage gossip he
• 2:28:24
  Speaker 1: can about any other politician, And so I don't feel
• 2:28:28
  Speaker 1: any I don't feel sorry for him at all, but
• 2:28:34
  Speaker 1: I will tell you that I'm not. I don't know
• 2:28:43
  Speaker 1: if I don't know if this really matters to the
• 2:28:46
  Speaker 1: electorate at large. But like I said, I think the
• 2:28:51
  Speaker 1: effectiveness of this hit, if you will, and bringing a
• 2:28:55
  Speaker 1: little bit more attention to this person who's who even
• 2:28:59
  Speaker 1: some of his first thinks she's a bit too obsessed
• 2:29:03
  Speaker 1: over him, which, by the way, is not new We've had.
• 2:29:07
  Speaker 1: There's plenty of people that have done this with presidents
• 2:29:09
  Speaker 1: in the past. Presidents love the attention. Staffers get nervous
• 2:29:13
  Speaker 1: when somebody gives that kind of attention to somebody because
• 2:29:16
  Speaker 1: it you know how Trump seems like he doesn't really
• 2:29:20
  Speaker 1: have the energy or the ability to do anything other
• 2:29:24
  Speaker 1: than ask Natalie for printouts. And that's about as far
• 2:29:28
  Speaker 1: as I'm going to go on this topic, if I'll
• 2:29:31
  Speaker 1: let your guys minds wander any further. But it is
• 2:29:37
  Speaker 1: clear to me that it gets under his skin and
• 2:29:38
  Speaker 1: the White House is super sensitive about it, which tells
• 2:29:41
  Speaker 1: me Malania did not like that story about these letters
• 2:29:44
  Speaker 1: and does not like the idea of it. Whether she
• 2:29:48
  Speaker 1: cares that much more anymore about her personal relationship with
• 2:29:51
  Speaker 1: the President that none of us can know, but I'm
• 2:29:55
  Speaker 1: certain she isn't going to like that. She somehow is
• 2:30:00
  Speaker 1: is he's got some woman who is that This has
• 2:30:05
  Speaker 1: become sort of in the ether. And to me, the
• 2:30:12
  Speaker 1: overreaction by the White House to the story, you know,
• 2:30:14
  Speaker 1: sometimes right, if they just let it go, they might
• 2:30:17
  Speaker 1: might have it might have gone away. But in some ways,
• 2:30:20
  Speaker 1: the overreaction, Oh they're really sensitive here. I know what
• 2:30:25
  Speaker 1: Trump would do. If Trump were on the other side,
• 2:30:27
  Speaker 1: he'd poke even harder. Oh, they don't like this story,
• 2:30:30
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go even further. Right, how do I
• 2:30:32
  Speaker 1: know this? Look at what Donald Trump did with Bill
• 2:30:37
  Speaker 1: Clinton's with the women that were rumored to be with
• 2:30:41
  Speaker 1: Bill Clinton, who all showed up at a debate when
• 2:30:43
  Speaker 1: he had a debate with Hillary Clinton. Right, he has
• 2:30:45
  Speaker 1: no shame, there's no line he won't cross. So you know,
• 2:30:50
  Speaker 1: it's hard to have any empathy for him on this one.
• 2:30:54
  Speaker 1: All right, last question for the e for this episode.
• 2:30:56
  Speaker 1: It's Mark h and Allen, Texas, Texas. He tells me,
• 2:31:01
  Speaker 1: I'm struggling to reconcile what's happening in Texas. On one hand,
• 2:31:04
  Speaker 1: some Republican leaders oppose accommodations for Muslims in the name
• 2:31:08
  Speaker 1: of the First Amendment, while at the same time supporting
• 2:31:10
  Speaker 1: measures like displaying the Ten Commandments in public schools. How
• 2:31:13
  Speaker 1: do we hold elected officials accountable for upholding the Constitution
• 2:31:16
  Speaker 1: consistently even if it conflicts with their own religious beliefs. Thanks, Look,
• 2:31:21
  Speaker 1: you know, I love to remind people if there's only
• 2:31:24
  Speaker 1: one mention of religion in the Constitution, and it's a prohibition, right,
• 2:31:31
  Speaker 1: it's a prohibition of that. There is no religious test
• 2:31:35
  Speaker 1: to hold elective office period in this country. I think
• 2:31:41
  Speaker 1: everything that they're attempting to do with Muslims and all
• 2:31:45
  Speaker 1: this rhetoric is Unamerican. It's unconstitutional for what it's worth,
• 2:31:50
  Speaker 1: which to me makes it un America. If something's unconstitutional,
• 2:31:53
  Speaker 1: it's also un American. But in this case, like it's
• 2:31:56
  Speaker 1: complete opposite of what we were founded on, right, which
• 2:32:00
  Speaker 1: was religious for a lot a lot of a lot
• 2:32:03
  Speaker 1: of people came to this country for religious freedom, not
• 2:32:07
  Speaker 1: to become some religious state. So no, I think all
• 2:32:12
  Speaker 1: of these things, and I as much as our courts
• 2:32:15
  Speaker 1: have shifted a little bit. Look, I'm surprised that Ten
• 2:32:20
  Speaker 1: Commandments are still up in Louisiana on this, but yeah,
• 2:32:30
  Speaker 1: I think we definitely, I mean this it's these bizarre
• 2:32:34
  Speaker 1: statements that elected officials make about Muslims in American life,
• 2:32:40
  Speaker 1: and this idea of having a religious test tells me
• 2:32:43
  Speaker 1: we really have a civics problem in this country. There
• 2:32:46
  Speaker 1: are quite a few people in elective office who apparently
• 2:32:49
  Speaker 1: have never read the Constitution. And you know, maybe it's
• 2:32:56
  Speaker 1: the fault of all of us in media that we
• 2:32:57
  Speaker 1: don't remind people enough that, you know, while we have
• 2:33:04
  Speaker 1: our elected officials constantly try to bring religion into the
• 2:33:07
  Speaker 1: political square, that the entire point of this country was
• 2:33:12
  Speaker 1: to not have a religious test, no state religion, no
• 2:33:16
  Speaker 1: national religion. And so but look, there's a there's a
• 2:33:22
  Speaker 1: concerted effort. There's a movement out there trying to sort
• 2:33:25
  Speaker 1: of change that narrative, change the perception, to try to
• 2:33:29
  Speaker 1: sort of re educate people about the Founders. Right, there's
• 2:33:33
  Speaker 1: this whole movement claiming that the Founders, you know, that
• 2:33:36
  Speaker 1: it was all we were meant to be a Christian nation. Again,
• 2:33:39
  Speaker 1: zero evidence of this, zero scholarship on this that supports
• 2:33:44
  Speaker 1: these things. But it doesn't mean the movement hasn't hasn't
• 2:33:48
  Speaker 1: grown a little bit there. I guess I still have
• 2:33:55
  Speaker 1: confidence at the courts are not going to reinterpret the
• 2:33:59
  Speaker 1: First Amendment so badly that somehow a state like Texas
• 2:34:06
  Speaker 1: is able to prevent Muslims from holding office. I still
• 2:34:10
  Speaker 1: have some hope that our judiciary isn't as warped as
• 2:34:14
  Speaker 1: our Department of Justice. All Right, with that I am,
• 2:34:20
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna file this away for seventy two hours, and
• 2:34:22
  Speaker 1: with that, I will see you in seventy two hours
• 2:34:24
  Speaker 1: with another episode of the Chuck Podcast. So check out Dynastic,
• 2:34:28
  Speaker 1: check out Newsphere, check out all the good stuff my
• 2:34:31
  Speaker 1: friends Crystaliza and DDHQ were doing. And with that, I'll
• 2:34:36
  Speaker 1: see you when we upload again.