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Albanese has a petrol plan. Will it help, or boost inflation? · The Morning Edition

0:04
S1: Well. The government has finally announced its National Fuel Security
0:08
S1: Plan to help us all cope with the worst global
0:11
S1: oil crisis the world has ever seen. After meeting with
0:15
S1: the heads of all states and territories in a special
0:18
S1: meeting of National cabinet, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the
0:22
S1: government was acting now to be overprepared for any further
0:25
S1: worsening of the crisis, which has resulted from the war
0:28
S1: in the Middle East, now in its fifth week and
0:31
S1: showing no signs of stopping. I'm Samantha Selinger Morris, and
0:36
S1: you're listening to The Morning Edition from the Age and
0:39
S1: The Sydney Morning Herald. Today, federal political correspondent Natassia Chrysanthos
0:44
S1: on what relief Australians will be getting out of this
0:47
S1: plan and if the government's measures will boost inflation. Welcome, Natasha,
0:56
S1: back to the podcast.
0:57
S2: Thanks for having me.
0:59
S1: So, Taz, first off, I've got to ask, do we
1:01
S1: have a fuel supply shortage problem?
1:03
S2: Well, if you're listening to the Albanese government today, the
1:07
S2: issue facing Australians is not a matter of fuel supply.
1:10
S2: The kind of biggest issue for Australians, and this has
1:13
S2: been borne out in everyone's bank accounts, is cost and
1:19
S2: is the price of fuel, which is, you know, high
1:22
S2: $2 plus for unleaded over $3 for diesel now in
1:27
S2: many places. So what we saw today was Anthony Albanese
1:31
S2: come out of a national cabinet meeting with state and
1:34
S2: territory leaders, which had kind of this been this this
1:37
S2: much awaited well much awaited, I say, by who? People
1:41
S2: in this building? Um, yeah, I highly anticipated press conference. Um,
1:47
S2: not not quite, but I think the narrative that's existed
1:51
S2: for the last kind of two weeks or so around
1:53
S2: the government has been, you know, when is it going
1:55
S2: to kind of take this united front in this Covid
1:59
S2: esque acknowledgement of crisis? Way to tell us what's going
2:03
S2: to happen next. And so I think we had the
2:05
S2: government do that today, but very insightfully. Its message, like
2:08
S2: you said, was not about supply and it wasn't about
2:11
S2: getting Australians to do anything Covid esque, like work from
2:16
S2: home or start carpooling. Its message was totally focused on
2:21
S2: cost of living relief.
2:23
S1: And so what are the big takeaways from this national
2:25
S1: cabinet meeting held on Monday?
2:27
S2: So the big takeaways in terms of things that we
2:30
S2: will actually see happen will be an immediate cost of
2:33
S2: living relief piece from the government in the form of
2:36
S2: halving the fuel excise. So that's about $0.52. That's going
2:41
S2: to come down by $0.26 a litre. So everyone should
2:43
S2: see that $0.26 cut off every litre of fuel almost immediately.
2:49
S2: And the other thing they are doing, which has a
2:51
S2: smaller but more direct impact, is eliminating altogether the heavy
2:57
S2: vehicle road user charge for truck drivers, basically. But that's
3:01
S2: expected to flow through to things like supermarket prices. And
3:05
S2: combined those two things will be in play until the
3:10
S2: end of June. So for the next three months, which
3:13
S2: is quite neatly until the next financial year, and the
3:17
S2: cost to the budget will be about $2.55 billion in
3:22
S2: that period.
3:23
S1: We also heard the government announced that it will be
3:25
S1: backing the private sector to help guarantee that we're going
3:28
S1: to continue getting enough oil and petrol into Australia. Is
3:32
S1: that right?
3:32
S2: Yeah. So the government's big focus the last few weeks
3:35
S2: and in terms of its public messaging as well, has
3:37
S2: been on what it is doing to secure supply. Um,
3:41
S2: and I think what one would kind of gather from
3:45
S2: its comments today, you know, particularly from Energy Minister Chris Bowen,
3:49
S2: is that the government does seem confident about continuing to
3:52
S2: secure supply. Um, again, a lot of talk over the
3:55
S2: last couple of weeks has been, you know, it wouldn't
3:58
S2: be till like April or particularly May when we actually
4:02
S2: saw an issue because the full effects of the war
4:05
S2: will have flown through by then. You know, it takes
4:08
S2: ships time and all that. Um, and so the, the
4:12
S2: kind of drop off a cliff of supply hasn't actually
4:16
S2: happened yet. And so there has been speculation that, you know,
4:20
S2: late April, May is when we'll actually see that take
4:23
S2: its full effect. But I think if you listen to
4:25
S2: the government today, um, they sound pretty confident that they
4:30
S2: will continue to shore up supply. Um, and you know,
4:35
S2: whether that's because they're just willing to pay what they
4:37
S2: need to, what they need to and work with industry
4:40
S2: to get fuel flowing in.
4:43
S1: Okay. But what did the government say about any plans
4:46
S1: to help us for the longer term, whether it's just
4:49
S1: to help us, you know, with cost of living or
4:51
S1: to make sure that we have enough supply of oil
4:53
S1: and petrol because Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, he announced a
4:57
S1: four stage plan. He said, we're currently in stage two.
5:00
S1: So did he flag any restrictions on petrol buying or
5:04
S1: any other restrictions that might come into place. Once we
5:07
S1: get to, say, April or May or the war lasts longer. And,
5:11
S1: you know, things sort of start getting tougher.
5:15
S2: So this national plan that came out today is a
5:17
S2: four stage plan. You know, stage one is called Plan
5:21
S2: and Prepare. Stage two is called Keeping Australia Moving. Stage
5:24
S2: three is called taking targeted action. And stage four is
5:28
S2: protecting critical services for all Australians. There are only a
5:31
S2: few dot points in the kind of public version of
5:33
S2: this plan that we can see. Um, but the where
5:37
S2: they've placed us right now is on this stage two
5:39
S2: keeping Australia moving. When we get to stage three is
5:43
S2: when we have, you know, governments continuing to, to act
5:46
S2: to get supply in. Um, but perhaps looking for people
5:51
S2: to take practical voluntary measures to reduce demand. And then
5:56
S2: stage four is where it looks like we get to
6:00
S2: kind of mandatory measures to reduce demand. And so the
6:03
S2: government was a bit wishy washy, I guess, on precisely
6:06
S2: what this would entail. We had the International Energy Agency um,
6:10
S2: about ten days ago now, maybe come out with this
6:13
S2: list of advice for governments on ways that consumers can
6:17
S2: reduce demand or governments can make consumers reduce demand. And
6:20
S2: that was looking at things like work from home, carpooling,
6:23
S2: fuel rationing. And our government at that point kind of said,
6:29
S2: thank you. That's that's, you know, not mandatory advice and
6:32
S2: not an instruction. I suppose we could assume that when
6:35
S2: we do get to a level three four situation under
6:38
S2: this plan, that's where you see some of those measures
6:40
S2: come in voluntarily at first and perhaps in a mandatory
6:44
S2: fashion afterwards. Um, but crucially, this plan and the Prime
6:48
S2: Minister today didn't spell out those measures. You know, he
6:52
S2: was asked about Easter long weekends, which are coming up.
6:54
S2: People often travel. He kind of said, go about your
6:56
S2: business as normal. So there was nothing in today's message
6:59
S2: that suggested that people should change their behavior. Um, when
7:05
S2: it comes to consuming fuel. Of course, that could be
7:07
S2: because fuel prices are setting a behavior signal anyway, right?
7:11
S2: Like when fuel is so expensive, you are more likely
7:14
S2: to turn to public transport or avoid long trips and
7:17
S2: so forth. And perhaps for the government, that's enough. Also,
7:20
S2: I guess a key part of the government's message so
7:23
S2: far has been there is no problem with supply that
7:26
S2: would require people to change their habits. Actually, the biggest
7:30
S2: issue and why we're seeing shortages and whatnot has been
7:32
S2: because of panic buying and things like that, which is
7:35
S2: why I think their message at large is focused on
7:41
S2: trying to keep kind of panic out of the conversation
7:44
S2: to deter that kind of behavior.
7:46
S1: And you're right, I think the message from the government
7:48
S1: was perhaps, you know, you said wishy washy. I definitely
7:51
S1: don't disagree. It was pretty soft. And we heard the
7:53
S1: prime Minister asking people to, quote, do the right thing, unquote,
7:57
S1: and voluntarily just not buy more than they need to
8:00
S1: not panic. Buy now. I'm not sure what kind of
8:02
S1: impact that will have on people, whether they will just
8:05
S1: kind of go, okay, I won't panic by I, I
8:08
S1: secretly sort of think, you know, people might continue doing that.
8:10
S1: I don't know, but I guess when, when could there
8:14
S1: be fuel rationing? Was there any indication as to when
8:17
S1: there will be involuntary measures placed upon us to help
8:20
S1: with this crisis? Because of course, none of us know
8:22
S1: when this is going to end. I mean, if anything, um,
8:25
S1: it's it's getting more inflamed in the Middle East. More
8:27
S1: countries are sort of becoming involved. It's not settling down
8:31
S1: well again.
8:32
S2: And the government wasn't super specific about what these thresholds
8:37
S2: looked like. Like there wasn't a kind of quantifiable figure
8:42
S2: as to when we progress to level three and when
8:44
S2: we progress to level four. But in general, it's when
8:47
S2: supply is disrupted and according to the government, that has
8:52
S2: just not happened. So there will be a kind of
8:54
S2: activation of those future levels if and when there is
8:58
S2: a problem with supply. But as we were kind of
9:01
S2: talking about earlier, the government is kind of projecting this
9:03
S2: confidence that that's not going to happen.
9:12
S1: We'll be right back. Okay, so I guess, was there
9:19
S1: any discussion about whether we could see any Covid style
9:22
S1: mandates to deal with the fuel crisis? Because we know that.
9:25
S1: Liberal leader Angus Taylor, shortly before this conference, he gave
9:29
S1: an interview and he said, you know, we oppose heavy
9:31
S1: handed mandates. We saw enough of that during Covid. I
9:33
S1: don't want to go back to that. So did the
9:36
S1: prime Minister or anyone in his cabinet or otherwise address
9:39
S1: that at all?
9:40
S2: Well, I don't think the government wants to go back
9:41
S2: to it either. Um, I don't think kind of mandated
9:45
S2: behaviors with penalties and so forth are kind of conditions
9:49
S2: that people like living in. And I don't think it's
9:51
S2: where the government wants to be. And so I think
9:53
S2: it kind of goes back to what we were just saying,
9:56
S2: where when we get to that level four kind of
9:58
S2: dire supply disruption situation. Yeah. Perhaps you'd see some kind
10:02
S2: of mandatory measure, but it very much is a final
10:05
S2: port of call according to this plan. Like we can
10:08
S2: see that the government wants to a just focus on
10:10
S2: people's kind of goodwill and being sensible at this point
10:13
S2: if it needs to, and it goes to level three,
10:15
S2: it will give directions, but they will continue to be voluntary.
10:18
S2: And I guess it's only if things got really bad
10:20
S2: that we'd see a kind of Covid era enforcement regime.
10:24
S2: As to some of these things.
10:26
S1: Right. Okay. And what about any other sort of financial
10:29
S1: help that Australians have been given as a result of
10:32
S1: this national cabinet? Because we know that a couple of
10:34
S1: states are, I believe, offering free public transport to try
10:38
S1: to sort of alleviate that pressure, of course, on people
10:40
S1: buying petrol. So tell us what what, if anything, we
10:43
S1: saw in this space?
10:45
S2: Well, yeah, the two key things we saw were the
10:47
S2: fuel excise and their their heavy vehicle charge. Um, you
10:51
S2: have seen states like Victoria and Tasmania going um give
10:56
S2: you no relief when it comes to public transport. Um,
11:01
S2: but that's something that states can kind of agree to do.
11:04
S2: And also, you know, the broader context for all of this,
11:07
S2: of course, is like inflation has been on the rise
11:11
S2: for the last little while. We've seen two interest rate
11:13
S2: rises from the reserve Bank trying to get people to
11:16
S2: tighten their wallets. These measures might be it, um kind
11:20
S2: of fuel excise reduction or free public transport. Put more
11:25
S2: money in people's worlds. You've kind of got the reserve
11:27
S2: Bank and the government here working against each other. Um,
11:30
S2: and I think there'll be economists today who are very concerned, um,
11:33
S2: about what will happen now that, you know, an extra
11:36
S2: $2.5 billion could be released into the economy because of
11:39
S2: this fuel excise relief. And I think the RBA will
11:43
S2: then have to to factor that in to its next decision.
11:46
S2: There's a chance that it then raises rates again to
11:48
S2: offset the benefit that people have gotten. And it kind
11:52
S2: of prolongs this this situation that we're finding ourselves in.
11:55
S2: And that's a difficult position for Treasurer Jim Chalmers as well.
11:59
S1: Well, I wanted to ask you whether some of our
12:00
S1: colleagues in Parliament House there where you where you normally
12:03
S1: working are pulling their hair out or sort of just
12:06
S1: like kind of freaking out about the public transport being
12:08
S1: free and also the having of the fuel excise, because
12:12
S1: I know that our colleague, our esteemed economist, specialist colleague
12:16
S1: Shane Wright, just the other day wrote with regards to
12:19
S1: what might be announced at the national cabinet. If there's
12:22
S1: a dumb idea, it's being embraced by people who should
12:24
S1: know better. So he might be pulling his hair out today,
12:28
S1: I don't know, I haven't seen him. Are you seeing
12:30
S1: anyone pull their hair out?
12:30
S3: Oh, I'm seeing Shane.
12:32
S2: I'm seeing Shane's hair fall to the floor in little pieces. Um,
12:37
S2: some of our our regular readers will be familiar with
12:40
S2: Shane's work. You know, Shay is a very, um, a
12:43
S2: very balanced and experienced economics writer. Um, but this has
12:46
S2: been one that he has very strong opinions on this
12:49
S2: week and he is tapping away at a, at a
12:51
S2: sequel to his drongo piece from last week as we
12:54
S2: speak on Monday afternoon. But his, his take was very
12:58
S2: much that, you know, this is unnecessary. Right now he
13:02
S2: is tapping away at his SQL right now. And that's
13:06
S2: because he shares those those concerns of economists that At
13:11
S2: both of these measures are a. And necessary because the
13:15
S2: reserve Bank is pumping up rates. It is trying to
13:18
S2: squeeze people to put a brake on inflation. And this
13:22
S2: is just kind of running counter to what the RBA
13:25
S2: was doing just a few weeks ago.
13:26
S1: Yeah, well, I'm no economist, but I definitely was swayed
13:29
S1: by Shane's previous column in which he said that in 2022,
13:32
S1: the Scott Morrison government have fuel excise for six months
13:36
S1: as it desperately tried to stay in power. And that
13:38
S1: single decision injected $5.5 billion into the pockets of consumers.
13:43
S1: It's no surprise that inflation accelerated through that period, as
13:47
S1: this 5.5 billion sloshed around the economy. Now that's six
13:49
S1: months now. At the moment, the government has announced only
13:52
S1: a three month fuel excise having. So it's it's obviously
13:56
S1: a difference there. But we know that the Prime Minister
13:59
S1: and the government in general was pressed on this at
14:01
S1: the presser where journalists were asking questions, and our colleague
14:05
S1: at the Australian Financial Review, Phil Currie, he asked, is
14:08
S1: there any offsets for the fuel excise? You know, do
14:11
S1: you have plans to pay for them somehow, or are
14:13
S1: we just going to add that to the pile when
14:15
S1: it comes budget time? And the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, sort
14:18
S1: of batted that away and said, well, we've got a
14:20
S1: long way to go to finalize the budget. So do
14:23
S1: you think they're as worried as the rest of us,
14:25
S1: or are they just not worried and we're just going
14:27
S1: to get kicked by inflation?
14:29
S2: I think Jim Chalmers should be very worried. And I
14:32
S2: think he is. He is worried and he's been flagging
14:34
S2: for the last few weeks as well. You know this
14:36
S2: is going to be a tough budget of hard decisions
14:38
S2: or tough decisions. People are ready for them. I think
14:41
S2: there's a lot riding on in terms of public expectation
14:44
S2: for the government to use its, you know, giant majority
14:47
S2: to to take some kind of bold political move to
14:51
S2: address intergenerational inequality, for example. And I think Chalmers has
14:55
S2: flagged that that's also of interest to him. But now
14:58
S2: he's been handed this extra curveball. And, you know, this
15:02
S2: was also going to be a belt tightening budget. Well,
15:05
S2: it's just lost an extra $1.5 billion overnight in terms
15:09
S2: of fuel relief. So they will be really looking to
15:13
S2: find those savings elsewhere in the budget while, you know,
15:17
S2: delivering on these kind of more urgent cost of living
15:21
S2: concerns of people, while at the same time any decisions
15:24
S2: the government makes will also, you know, be part of
15:27
S2: the picture that influences the RBA's decisions in terms of
15:30
S2: it continues to raise rates. So no wonder Chalmers is
15:35
S2: saying that a lot of these decisions are coming down
15:36
S2: to the wire and still won't be finalised for several weeks.
15:40
S2: There'll be lots of tired Treasury officials and bureaucrats around
15:44
S2: Canberra as we approach mid-May, I'm sure.
15:48
S1: Oh, I absolutely bet. Well, thanks for your time.
15:51
S2: You're welcome. Thanks, Sam.
15:57
S1: And in other news today, Sydney scientists have said in
16:00
S1: a first of its kind paper that vaping probably causes
16:04
S1: lung and oral cancer. This contradicts the idea that vaping
16:08
S1: is a safer way to smoke, and boosts the urgency
16:11
S1: of efforts to stop a new generation of young people
16:14
S1: becoming addicted to nicotine and Porepunkah. Police killer Desi Freeman
16:20
S1: was shot dead after seven months on the run. Police
16:23
S1: were tipped off that Freeman was hiding in a shipping
16:26
S1: container on a regional property. The search involved more than
16:29
S1: 450 officers and has been described as the largest tactical
16:34
S1: operation in Victorian policing history. For more coverage of this
16:38
S1: developing story, details on Freeman's final moments and the squalid
16:43
S1: Bush encampment where he died, visit our website's theage.com.au and smh.com.au.
16:52
S1: Today's episode was produced by Josh towers. Our executive producer
16:56
S1: is Tammy Mills, and our podcasts are overseen by Lisa
17:00
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