Latest / Closing Market Report / Jul 22 | Closing Market Report
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- cmr260722 The July 22, 2026, edition of the Closing Market Report, hosted by Todd Gleason, provides a comprehensive update on agricultural markets, policy news, and weather forecasts. Market analyst Greg Johnson highlights a recent rally in soybean and wheat prices fueled by strong domestic crush demand and geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea, which has encouraged cash sales among Central Illinois farmers. The news segment covers significant staffing reductions at local Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) offices that threaten conservation programs, alongside a report on the looming economic impact of new Section 301 tariffs following a recent Supreme Court ruling. Finally, meteorologist Drew Lerner offers a weather outlook, noting favorable crop conditions in the eastern Corn Belt while warning of persistent heat and dryness that threaten crops and livestock across the western plains, the Dakotas, and the Delta region. 01:56 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TGM Total Grain Marketing 10:57 24 Illinois Counties Lose Half or All NRCS Staffing 11:59 Trump Tariffs Still Looming over Economy 14:33 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc. --- Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 22nd day of July 2026. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we’ll talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson. He is at TGM. I’ll update you on the latest agricultural news for the afternoon, including staffing reductions at your local NRCS or Natural Resources Conservation Service offices. And then, we’ll turn our attention to the weather forecast. We’ll talk with Drew Lerner at World Weather Inc. in Kansas City during this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media, online on demand at willag.org. Announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. Todd Gleason: December corn for the day finished at $4.84 and three-quarters, nine and a half higher. The March at $5.00 and a quarter cent, up nine and a quarter. The old crop, by the way, nine and a quarter higher as well; it finished at $4.62 in the September. The soybeans in the September at $12.26, 15 and a half higher. November, $12.39, new crop up 16 and a quarter. Bean meal, $4.90 higher. The bean oil up $1.18. Soft red winter wheat for December, $7.22 and three-quarters, a gain of 26 and three-quarters of a cent. The hard red December at $7.79, up 29 and a half cents. Live cattle futures, $4.02 and a half cents lower. Lean hogs up 22 and a half cents, and the feeder cattle, $8.77 and a half cents lower. Crude oil for the day up $2.60 a barrel. The price of gasoline on the wholesale, a penny and a half higher at $3.24 and two-tenths of a cent for the day. Natural gas up 7 cents at $2.90 and nine-tenths of a cent on this Wednesday afternoon. 01:56 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, TGM Total Grain Marketing Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson from TGM Total Grain Marketing now joins us from the elevator right here in Champaign County. Hello, Greg, thanks for being with us. Greg Johnson: Good to be with you. Todd Gleason: So producers are thinking today is a good day to make some additional cash sales? Greg Johnson: Producers in Central Illinois anyway, we’ve had plenty of rain, the crops look good. Pollination has been taking place the last week or 10 days. We should finish up pollination sometime early next week, and the temperatures are supposed to be on the cool side for the next five days. So yes, most of the corn is going to pollinate in good shape, and so farmers, once they feel confident that they’re going to have something to sell, are a lot more willing to sell into rallies like we’re seeing here this week. So yes, we’ve been buying a fair amount of new crop corn, beans, and wheat on this rally here. And I understand if you’re in South Dakota or somewhere where it’s dry and hot and you haven’t had much rain, it’s a little bit harder to pull the trigger, but here in Central Illinois, it sure looks like we’re going to have something to sell this fall. Beans have rallied over a buck and a half and corn has rallied 55, 60 cents. We’re not back to the old highs yet; beans are making new contract highs today, corn isn’t, but wheat is almost as high as it’s been in quite some time. So yes, farmers are taking advantage of that rally here in Central Illinois. Todd Gleason: The rally in corn seems to have been a bit lackluster. Certainly, wheat is leading today, but it appears to me that soybeans have been really in the driver’s seat. Why do you think that’s been the case? Greg Johnson: I think the soybeans are the leader for a couple of reasons. One, the domestic crush numbers just continue to be record amounts due to the renewable biodiesel demand. I know we’re not expanding at a fast enough clip for some people, but we are basically a constant number month after month. And then if you throw in the export business, and there’s some talk that China has been buying some beans on the open market—not a lot, a few boatloads here and a few boatloads there—but there is some talk, some concern that if China would buy more than what the USDA has penciled in, that we could see a very, very tight carryout. I mean, if you’re looking at using the USDA’s numbers of 85.4 million acres planted, and I’ve lowered the yield by a bushel from 53 to 52, not a disaster, but I think if you just take a bushel off, that gives you a 4.4 billion bushel bean supply and demand is 4.5. So that cuts the carryout by 100 million bushels. And the carryout is already a very snug 310, so that gets it down to 210, and that’s kind of the area where we ration anything below 300 million. We ration, so you’ve got to keep the price relatively high to ration that export demand. Todd Gleason: Are US soybeans competitive on the world market at this point? Greg Johnson: They aren’t at this point, but once Brazil runs out of beans, we’re basically the only game in town. And so then we would expect export business to pick back up again. So as of today, no, but we don’t have to necessarily sell beans today. Once Brazil runs out, hopefully, we’ll have that market to ourselves in that August, September, October timeframe. Todd Gleason: While this is a bit fuzzy, it would seem that the issue may be that the Chinese are willing to pay a premium for soybeans out of the United States at this point for political purposes. The fear would be that the Brazilians will react and plant more acreage of soybeans in what would be our fall and their spring, the months of September, October, and November. Greg Johnson: Believe it or not, there are stories out of Brazil that due to the higher input costs, which we know full well about here in the United States, that this might be the first year in over 25 years where they plant less beans than they did before. Almost every year, they’re bringing on another half million to a million and a half acres of production, and they could very easily do that again this year if the prices encourage farmers to do that. But with the prices where they were a month or two ago and the higher input costs, there was some concern, some talk that soybean acres in Brazil could be unchanged to lower, not higher. So that was definitely a month ago. Now bean prices have rallied since then, so maybe Brazil will expand acres once again. We’ll have to wait and see, but that’s certainly the concern right now. Todd Gleason: Now turn your attention to the wheat market. It is the leader for the day. Greg Johnson: The wheat market is really leading along with soybeans. The wheat market is very strong because Ukraine has bombed some of the Russian export facilities, and the Russians have bombed Odesa, which is a Ukraine export facility. So very little wheat is being moved out of the Black Sea area right now. And so if you need to buy wheat this week or next week, the United States is probably the most reliable supplier of that wheat. And you couple that with funds being extremely short wheat. They got caught on the wrong side of the Black Sea conflict, so they’re buying back their short positions. So I think you’ve got a combination of replacement bushels coming out of the Black Sea into the US, along with the funds being short as the main driver for why wheat is strong. And that’s spilling over into the corn. And then soybeans are rallying because of, number one, dry weather, number two, possible demand from China—who knows, that’s the wild card—and number three, just higher energy prices in general are supporting the soybean oil prices. Todd Gleason: The things to watch then, of course, are the weather—that’s usual for the summertime—and then the potential escalation or continued escalation of the war footing in both the Middle East and the Black Sea. It is a very difficult market to navigate at this time. Greg Johnson: It reminds me of when the Russia-Ukraine war started almost five years ago now. The very first week, we were very concerned that wheat would not be able to get out of Ukraine, and wheat prices really rallied. Well, if you get the price high enough, people figure out a way to get it from point A to point B, and back then, Ukraine started railing wheat over to the west and exporting it out of Poland, and so it was able to get into the world markets. So I know things don’t look good right now in Odesa and in some of the Russian ports, but given a high enough price, I have a feeling they’ll figure out a way to get it out of the Black Sea area and get that back into the Middle East. Todd Gleason: When you picked up the phone today, what is it that producers are mostly asking? Greg Johnson: Well, they’re asking how high is this going to go? And I try to tell them that’s the wrong question to ask because we don’t know the answer to that. The question to ask is, can I make money? Is this a profitable level to sell at? And a month ago when corn prices were below $4 cash, the answer was no, we can’t make money. Now, all of a sudden cash corn is $4.50, old crop corn is $4.60, but new crop corn right out of the field is $4.50. Can farmers make money at that price? It’s close. I think maybe it works, maybe it doesn’t for some. But for soybeans at $12 cash, and we’re well over $12 cash today, the answer is yes. So even if beans do go to $13, and they could, they could go to $11 also, the question I think farmers need to ask themselves is, can I make money selling $12 beans and $4.50 corn? And if the answer is yes, we probably need to get a little bit sold. And I think around here with the weather looking as good as it does, the crops looking as good as they do, I think farmers are more willing to reward this rally and sell a little bit of that potential new crop. Todd Gleason: Thank you much, Greg, and I look forward to talking with you for commodity week tomorrow afternoon. Greg Johnson: Looking forward to it, thanks Todd. Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson is with TGM, that’s totalgrainmarketing.com, right here in Champaign County, Illinois. You may hear him again on our website in the Closing Market Report at willag.org or by searching out our podcast, the Closing Market Report by name, in your favorite podcast applications. 10:57 24 Illinois Counties Lose Half or All NRCS Staffing Todd Gleason: In today’s agricultural news, nearly half of Illinois counties have fewer local staff to help farmers with soil and water conservation efforts. IPM’s Abigail Bottar reports that’s after cuts to the US Department of Agriculture. Abigail Bottar: Champaign County lost the most Natural Resources Conservation Service staff in the state last year, partly because the county also houses the agency’s state office. Seventeen counties lost at least half of their conservation staff, and seven lost all of those employees. The NRCS works with farmers on programs that allow growers to take a risk on a conservation method that may not pay off immediately. Steve Stierwalt is chair of the Champaign County Soil and Water Conservation District. He says without NRCS programs, farmers lose the incentive to try new practices. Steve Stierwalt: So often when the cost share goes away, the practice goes away. Abigail Bottar: Nationally, the NRCS lost 22% of its staff last year. The USDA did not respond to a request for comment. I’m Abigail Bottar, IPM News. 11:59 Trump Tariffs Still Looming over Economy Todd Gleason: Let’s stay with Trump administration policies. From USDA’s cost-cutting, we’ll move to the Supreme Court, which ruled 6 to 3 that President Trump exceeded his authority by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, to impose broad worldwide tariffs last year. But tariffs continue to grab trade headlines. Mike Davis has more. Mike Davis: Ben Malin, Vice President of Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, says tariffs have been and continue to be a favorite bargaining chip of the President. Ben Malin: Tariffs, which really is a continuation of a big theme from last year. So spring of 2025 seeing Liberation Day, and even before that, tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China being introduced. Activities this year have been the Supreme Court striking down some of those tariffs, temporary tariffs being put into place that last through this month, and now this month, some questions about what will come next. Mike Davis: But even with some tariffs set to expire soon, Malin says more could be on the way. Ben Malin: New tariffs based on so-called Section 301 investigations are expected to be announced later this month or early next month. And so the question is, how will they affect the average effective tariff rate that the economy is facing? If any, what exemptions will be in place, and so on. So we could see maybe a slight bump up in tariff rates or actually even a cut from the tariff rates we’re facing today. Mike Davis: Section 301 tariffs are trade penalties imposed under the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the US Trade Representative to investigate and respond to unfair trade practices by other countries. The announcement of those tariffs is expected soon. I’m Mike Davis. Todd Gleason: The use of Section 301 by the Trump administration has been expected since the Supreme Court made its decision. However, the use of the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930 or Section 338, which is what the Trump administration has used this week to impose a 50% tariff on some goods entering the United States from Canada, was not expected. And that’s a look at today’s agricultural news. You’re listening to the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media on this Wednesday afternoon. Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer, Tim Gleason. 14:33 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather Inc. Todd Gleason: We’re now joined by Drew Lerner. He is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City to help us take a look at the agricultural weather forecast. Hi Drew, it’s a magnificent day in East Central Illinois. Is it a bit warmer where you are? Drew Lerner: Well, it is a bit warmer. Our break from the heat is going to be a little bit more brief than yours, but hey, we’re celebrating. Last night, low humidity, light winds, it was a dream. But it’ll all be back tomorrow afternoon or I guess it’ll probably be Friday. So it’ll push a little bit of it your way, but it’s all going to be about the plains, I think. Todd Gleason: Let’s begin in the eastern Corn Belt and then we’ll work our way clockwise. Start with Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois, please. Drew Lerner: Yes, for the most part, it looks pretty good. You have to look at the calendar first. Here we are the 22nd of July, and the temperatures are in the 70s across a big part of the Midwest. For today and tomorrow, just slightly warmer after that. You can’t do better than that, especially with the warm and humid conditions we had not too long ago. So this is a nice break for the crop. Precipitation will continue to scatter in and out of these areas. I think we’ll maintain status quo on the moisture profile, we might even increase it in a few spots. There are a few areas that have seen some drying in the topsoil, but the subsoil moisture profile is still good. So for the eastern Corn Belt, I really think this looks pretty good for right now. Todd Gleason: Let’s work our way now west of the Mississippi River. Begin with Iowa and move through Minnesota and maybe the Dakotas. Drew Lerner: I think Iowa is certainly in a fairly good position right now. If you recall back, I think we have to go a couple of weeks back, we had that big rain event. It may have been two or three weeks back, but they had that big soaking rain over a weekend, and it really bolstered the moisture profile across a big part of the state. But not everybody. Some areas in the west didn’t do quite so well. And we kind of did that again this past weekend with central and eastern Iowa doing fairly well with rain again. And so that’s left the moisture profile in those areas looking pretty darn good. Now, western Iowa is a little bit different. There is a little bit more dryness out that way. And everyone is focused on these scattered thunderstorms that are advertised to occur now over these next two to three nights, coming out of South Dakota and parts of Nebraska, and working their way into southwestern Iowa and Missouri, and ultimately into Illinois. And this will be very important for those areas that I just mentioned in western Iowa in particular that have been dry, but Nebraska too. The amount of rain that falls is going to have a big impact on where we go with crops in those areas because of the drier bias that we do have right now. So a close watch, maybe we can do better than anticipated with some of the rain. It looks a bit erratic to me, but I do think there will be some counties in western and especially southwestern Iowa and Nebraska that will see some 1 to 2-inch amounts. Now, Minnesota probably will be left out of this particular round of showers and thunderstorms, and it may be difficult to get good rain up that way for a while. The same thing can be said about parts of Wisconsin. So we could go a week to a week and a half without more than maybe a couple tenths to three-quarters of an inch of rain, and it will be warm enough up that way that we’ll probably evaporate that moisture out. So probably status quo or maybe even drier than they are right now. Todd Gleason: Let’s continue working our way clockwise through the growing regions of the United States. Start with Minnesota and North Dakota, maybe Montana, and the spring wheat growing regions really. Drew Lerner: Yes, two weekends ago we had that 115-degree temperature in eastern Montana, and widespread 100s in Montana and the western Dakotas, and that was kind of the beginning of the trouble. It really hasn’t rained much since then. We have had some brief periods of cooler air, but this coming Friday and Saturday, we’re going to get the temperatures back up well over 100 again in that area. The moisture profile is the pits now and crops are stressed. I think the spring wheat ratings have been down for a while and we’re going to see that spread to all the other crops in the region. So this is mostly a Montana, North Dakota, and northern South Dakota issue at the moment. To the north across Canada, we do have quite a contrast in the prairies. It’s actually still a bit wet in the far northern parts of the prairies, but in the south, they’re kind of hung up in this hot, dry scenario like Montana. And southern Alberta and central through southwest and south-central Saskatchewan are also drying out quickly. Now, the difference between Canada and the northwest US plains is that the Canadian prairies have better subsoil moisture, and crops are probably hanging on fairly well. But they too will go without rain for 10 days and it will be warm-biased. And so by the time we’re done with 10 days, I’m afraid the Canadian prairies will be stressed enough that their yield potentials will be slipping lower too. And that’ll be spring wheat and canola, maybe a little bit of corn, and some soybeans. Most of the soybeans are farther to the east. I don’t think they will be seriously impacted in Canada. But of course, we’ve got to watch Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas. Todd Gleason: Will the temperatures throughout the beef producing areas of the plains states be really hot over the coming week or so? Drew Lerner: Yes, I think so, and it’s not just a day or two. It’s going to be rather persistent, especially in the central and southwest US plains in that most important livestock area. I do see temperatures of 100 to 108 degrees occurring almost every day from now all the way through the end of next week. And if that happens, the weight gains are going to be pretty poor and we’re probably going to see a little bit of illness for some of those animals out there. A close watch on that situation is probably warranted. The northern plains cattle country will also experience some of this, especially in Montana and the western Dakotas, because we do expect those temperatures back in that 100 to 110-degree range. But only for a day or two. The temperatures in the northern plains will be more 90s and a few readings over 100. That’s still stressful for some of those animals, but it’ll be worse in the southern plains, I think. Todd Gleason: Finally, let’s close our clockwise loop through the middle part of the United States and its growing regions by taking a look at the Delta. Drew Lerner: The Delta is an area that is drying out right now. Interestingly enough, that is very much associated with the 18-year cycle that we talk about periodically. That was an area that was expected to be drier-biased during the summer this year, along with eastern Texas and Oklahoma, and that’s exactly what’s happening right now. So confidence is pretty high that that trend will stay in place. Tropical Storm Beryl is actually helping to reinforce that whole scenario by hogging all the moisture from the Gulf of America and keeping it from moving northward. And so for the next several days, that will add into the high pressure that’s already suppressing the rain in the Delta. So for a while, we’re going to see crop deterioration there as well, and they will see temperatures in the 90s to near 100 during a fair amount of this coming week as well. Todd Gleason: Thank you much, Drew. I really appreciate you joining us. Drew Lerner: You bet, have a good day. Todd Gleason: You too. That’s Drew Lerner. He is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City, joined us on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media. Do visit our website, the address is willag.org. Not only will you find our daily radio programming in its entirety there, you’ll also find information from the agricultural economist, the crop scientist, as well as the animal scientist from right here on the Urbana-Champaign campus of the University of Illinois, and a calendar that’s full of our events for the summer meeting season. I’m Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason.