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Bitcoin Prepares For Altcoin Season?🚀Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:07
Speaker 1: Bitcoin and the all season, of course, all starting to
0:10
Speaker 1: come together, but maybe not just yet. We'll break it
0:13
Speaker 1: down for you guys. My name is Paul Berre. We'll
0:15
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Speaker 1: get going. Let's get into a few topics today, and
0:46
Speaker 1: one of the things I want to kind of focus
0:48
Speaker 1: in on is just the state of the market, and
0:51
Speaker 1: also there are some key things that are starting to
0:53
Speaker 1: play out here that could trigger into the market generally
0:57
Speaker 1: of where crypto could be going here, of course is Genevieve,
1:01
Speaker 1: and she's talking about everything really shows no signs of
1:03
Speaker 1: slowing down. Stock markets up, S and p's up. Bitcoins
1:06
Speaker 1: filing are pressuring. It's all time high, and goal, of course,
1:09
Speaker 1: we know is continuing the US consumer spending. I'm still
1:13
Speaker 1: a little bit concerned about it. It is staying strong,
1:15
Speaker 1: but I feel like the credit crunch could continue to
1:17
Speaker 1: put a little pressure on that. Does that really affect
1:20
Speaker 1: most of the markets, I think for people who are
1:22
Speaker 1: investing in this, maybe maybe not. We'll see how this
1:25
Speaker 1: plays out as we start to take a look at
1:27
Speaker 1: some of the inflation numbers and some of the job
1:30
Speaker 1: numbers going into November, and of course we're expecting a
1:33
Speaker 1: little bit of a break in November as well. Here's
1:36
Speaker 1: the fear and greed and you can got to see
1:38
Speaker 1: the fear and greed has really been coming back quite
1:41
Speaker 1: a bit here, and let me kind of zoom in
1:43
Speaker 1: on this for you guys a little bit. You can
1:44
Speaker 1: kind of see the chart here where we had dipped
1:46
Speaker 1: down right here around the first of October to around
1:51
Speaker 1: thirty six. That was pretty significant. And then of course
1:53
Speaker 1: bitcoins started moving. A lot of all coins have been flying.
1:56
Speaker 1: Of course, Solana hitting almost one hundred and seventy, but
1:59
Speaker 1: right there holding at sixty three. So we're definitely in
2:01
Speaker 1: the green right now, not extreme greed, but definitely going
2:04
Speaker 1: toward potentially a market correction overall. Now many people ask
2:08
Speaker 1: is this all season? Not necessarily, but it does look
2:11
Speaker 1: like we are getting to the green zone. Last week
2:13
Speaker 1: we showed this, it was still in kind of the
2:16
Speaker 1: yellow to orange zone, but right now into the green
2:19
Speaker 1: zone thirty three, and of course we've got some time
2:22
Speaker 1: to go. I think we saw a little bit of
2:24
Speaker 1: push before we start to see that. I know that
2:26
Speaker 1: Salona and Avalanche were running over the weekend. There's a
2:28
Speaker 1: few things will break down on that to give you
2:31
Speaker 1: guys kind of an understanding there. But first I want
2:33
Speaker 1: to take a look at gold. Gold's market capitalization now
2:36
Speaker 1: hitting eighteen point four trillion, a significant increase in gold. Also,
2:42
Speaker 1: silver is up as well, so be looking at these markets.
2:45
Speaker 1: Since twenty nineteen, market evaluation has officially doubled, comes as
2:48
Speaker 1: gold prices to pass twenty seven to fifty first time
2:51
Speaker 1: in history, thirty three percent year to date. This sounds
2:54
Speaker 1: like a crypto project right there. At the same time,
2:57
Speaker 1: Bigcoin's value is now one point four trillion, or thirteen
3:00
Speaker 1: times lower. Gold right now is definitely on track, but
3:04
Speaker 1: could it be that Bitcoin is setting up for an
3:08
Speaker 1: unbelievable run against God going into and a lot of
3:10
Speaker 1: people look at that. A couple of other things that
3:12
Speaker 1: are looking at right now is some of the directives
3:15
Speaker 1: that are flowing into the ETFs. And what I say
3:18
Speaker 1: directives mean when you think about what is the voting
3:22
Speaker 1: potential here with the presidential election, how is the market
3:26
Speaker 1: going to respond to an interest rate cut? What is
3:29
Speaker 1: the market going to do in terms of jobs and inflation?
3:33
Speaker 1: Bitcoin ETF inflows seem to be pushing it upward. And
3:37
Speaker 1: if you look at some of the points they were
3:39
Speaker 1: getting at interpreting rising odds over the overtly pro crypto
3:43
Speaker 1: Donald Trump to win the US presidential election scenario, let
3:46
Speaker 1: me kind of zoom in on that bullish a little
3:49
Speaker 1: bit more clear crypto policy, which I would agree Harris
3:52
Speaker 1: has not been able to identify a good, solid crypto
3:55
Speaker 1: policy that has been able to translate to the voters.
3:59
Speaker 1: ETFs are back and strong netflows redstring at two point
4:02
Speaker 1: one billion last week. That was the largest since the
4:04
Speaker 1: two point six billion generated the second week of March.
4:07
Speaker 1: So remember March through May was when we hit all
4:11
Speaker 1: time high in bitcoin. Of course, we saw a lot
4:13
Speaker 1: of all coins also running with that, so this could
4:16
Speaker 1: be leading into that as we go forward. Now, what
4:19
Speaker 1: they're talking about is this right here, and part of
4:22
Speaker 1: this is the I would say, well, it's the crypto
4:25
Speaker 1: version of the polls out there. Trump holding a commanding
4:29
Speaker 1: lead right now at sixty two point six, really growing
4:32
Speaker 1: over a while. What's interesting to me here's where the
4:35
Speaker 1: split really started was around late September. But since then
4:39
Speaker 1: Trump has pretty much separated from Harrison, looks to be
4:43
Speaker 1: continuing to increase his lead, and of course the thing
4:47
Speaker 1: that's really critical is increasing his lead now in the
4:51
Speaker 1: swing states Arizona up seventy to thirty, Pennsylvania up fifty
4:55
Speaker 1: nine to forty one, Nevada which was tight now fifty
4:58
Speaker 1: five to forty five. Michigan was also tight fifteen electoral
5:02
Speaker 1: votes there. So this looks like.
5:04
Speaker 2: It could be.
5:05
Speaker 1: Now many people would say, well, Paul, you know poly
5:07
Speaker 1: market is you know, it's outside the United States. I'm
5:09
Speaker 1: telling you right now, guys, remember Kyle she and the
5:12
Speaker 1: overturn in a court of law for what the CFTC
5:16
Speaker 1: was trying to do in terms of controlling these markets.
5:18
Speaker 1: The predictive betting markets for elections that was approved and
5:22
Speaker 1: pretty much said hey, yeah, you can do that in
5:24
Speaker 1: the United States, to my understanding. So with that being
5:27
Speaker 1: the case, I think we're starting to see a little
5:29
Speaker 1: bit of a shift and tied and I think a
5:30
Speaker 1: lot of US people are following this, but also the
5:33
Speaker 1: bigger investment community outside the United States almost as important,
5:39
Speaker 1: because this is an election that will affect everyone. I
5:41
Speaker 1: want to go to a clip real quick. This will
5:43
Speaker 1: get into some details on this. Take a look.
5:46
Speaker 3: You're a markets guy, what do you think of Polymarket?
5:51
Speaker 3: What do you think of some of the other marketplaces
5:54
Speaker 3: where people are effectively taking bets on this election? And
5:58
Speaker 3: again what looks like like a big move for former
6:03
Speaker 3: President Trump.
6:04
Speaker 4: Well, let me first say I'm an indirect investor in
6:06
Speaker 4: poly market through a fund that I'm in, a crypto
6:08
Speaker 4: fund that I'm in, And I know that you're not
6:11
Speaker 4: supposed to be an American and bet on polymarket, and
6:16
Speaker 4: so it's not really an indication I think of anything.
6:18
Speaker 4: And I don't really know what hedges are out there,
6:21
Speaker 4: so it's possible to, you know, bet on one side
6:24
Speaker 4: and not bet on the other. And from all indications,
6:26
Speaker 4: the most of the money coming into poly Market is
6:28
Speaker 4: forged money. So I don't think it's an indication of anything.
6:31
Speaker 3: That was a story there in the Wall Street Journal
6:33
Speaker 3: that somebody's actually dumping.
6:35
Speaker 4: Like betting on the on the mets, right, if you
6:37
Speaker 4: put enough money on it, the odds will change.
6:39
Speaker 5: I think the irony of all of it is a
6:40
Speaker 5: lot of these Republicans are buying it thinking that that's
6:43
Speaker 5: going to determine the outcoming election, and they're just gaslighting themselves.
6:46
Speaker 3: Is that right?
6:47
Speaker 2: A guess.
6:50
Speaker 5: I was looking I was looking at it when sim
6:52
Speaker 5: Walls was up as well when it was the DP stakes,
6:55
Speaker 5: and you could see it changed.
6:57
Speaker 3: Before this is like Republicans are excited, Hey, we don't
7:00
Speaker 3: care about the polls or the early voting numbers. Look
7:03
Speaker 3: at what the foreigners are saying.
7:05
Speaker 4: Putin's on his phone, goes.
7:11
Speaker 1: I can pretty much say, I don't think Putin's on
7:13
Speaker 1: his phone checking out Polymarket, but I do think that
7:16
Speaker 1: people in the EU and people in Asia are. And
7:20
Speaker 1: of course, the other thing that was a little bit
7:21
Speaker 1: confusing there is that in the clip that kind of
7:24
Speaker 1: butted up to that one where Cuban was talking about Polymarket,
7:28
Speaker 1: I don't understand that he didn't understand what was happening
7:30
Speaker 1: with the CALCI lawsuit and the CFTC because that kind
7:34
Speaker 1: of clarified what would happen with predictive betting here in
7:37
Speaker 1: the US. So I'm not sure how that plays if
7:39
Speaker 1: he is just looking at this as saying, well, don't
7:42
Speaker 1: worry about what polymarket is doing because that makes his
7:44
Speaker 1: candidate look bad. Maybe that's an angle that's happening. I
7:48
Speaker 1: don't know, but I think right now, when it gets
7:51
Speaker 1: to be this much of a spread, it's got to
7:53
Speaker 1: seep over into culture, and culture is a big part
7:56
Speaker 1: of this. I cannot see something that is culturally driven
7:59
Speaker 1: beans so predictably wrong about where these markets are going.
8:03
Speaker 1: We'll see how this all plays out, though, that's for sure.
8:06
Speaker 1: Another topic right here is Eric balschun Is coming in
8:08
Speaker 1: from Bloomberg. He says, I bit had one heck of
8:11
Speaker 1: a week, one point one billion in new cash, best
8:14
Speaker 1: week since March. We've showed that last year. But man,
8:17
Speaker 1: what a run that is for ibent. Of course, that
8:21
Speaker 1: being Blackrock and their bitcoin ETF twenty six billion, which
8:25
Speaker 1: is on top to it's the top two percent of
8:27
Speaker 1: all ETFs. Ever ever think about that for a second. Okay,
8:32
Speaker 1: so I want to go into a clip here, and
8:34
Speaker 1: this is Sailor. If you think about where Blackrock is
8:37
Speaker 1: in the current market, a lot of people will look
8:39
Speaker 1: at that and say, well, there's a lot of centralization
8:40
Speaker 1: going going on. And Sailor kind of follows up here
8:43
Speaker 1: on this clip talking about basically self custody and how
8:47
Speaker 1: this may be shifting over to the banks. Take a look.
8:50
Speaker 2: I think that when the bitcoin is held by a
8:53
Speaker 2: bunch of crypto anarchists who aren't regulated entities don't acknowledge government,
9:01
Speaker 2: or don't acknowledge taxes, or don't acknowledge reporting requirements, that
9:06
Speaker 2: increases the risk of seizure. So normally the risk is
9:12
Speaker 2: greater when they're unregulated private entities that are perceived to
9:17
Speaker 2: be holding the asset. When you have regulated public entities
9:22
Speaker 2: like black Rock and Fidelity and JP Morgan and State
9:26
Speaker 2: Street Bank holding the asset, well, all the lawmakers and
9:31
Speaker 2: all the law enforcement arms they're invested in those entities, right,
9:36
Speaker 2: So there's no way that all the senators and all
9:39
Speaker 2: the congressmen are going to seize the assets from Fidelity
9:43
Speaker 2: and black Rock or Vanguard, because that's where all their
9:47
Speaker 2: retirement money is invested. So the asset moving from private
9:54
Speaker 2: to public hands and moving into regulated entities, it does
9:58
Speaker 2: a bunch of things. It It decreases the volatility, It
10:02
Speaker 2: decreases the risk of loss, It decreases their like who
10:06
Speaker 2: do you trust more as a custodian FTX or fidality.
10:13
Speaker 1: So a few points that he's hitting here to kind
10:15
Speaker 1: of unwrap that. First of all, I would think that
10:17
Speaker 1: anybody outside of the United States holding bitcoin, that's their business,
10:20
Speaker 1: so our government has no real bearing on that. But
10:23
Speaker 1: when you look at the typical crypto holder, I would
10:26
Speaker 1: get wager that they're holding a small percentage of their
10:29
Speaker 1: net worth, which means probably equal to what they hold
10:32
Speaker 1: in cash, and that essentially can be self custodied as well.
10:36
Speaker 1: I think where the idea of self custody is a
10:38
Speaker 1: lot of people are fed up with the fees with
10:40
Speaker 1: the ability to gain access to banks who are holding
10:43
Speaker 1: your funds, and are trying to shift away from FIAT,
10:46
Speaker 1: which is very surprising to hear sailors say that. And
10:49
Speaker 1: when he talked about you know, if governments are talking
10:52
Speaker 1: about seizure, they're not going to be seizing blackrocks bitcoin
10:55
Speaker 1: because that's not theirs, it's the accounts being held there. Now,
10:58
Speaker 1: sure there are many you know, instant tutional hedge funds,
11:00
Speaker 1: et cetera, that are in there as well, but if
11:02
Speaker 1: you start going into which you can individually invest in these,
11:06
Speaker 1: then yes, your account could be eligible for that kind
11:10
Speaker 1: of seizure and scenarios of play out in this. So
11:13
Speaker 1: I'm still a little bit on the fence of self custing.
11:16
Speaker 1: I think self custy is the way to go now. Granted,
11:18
Speaker 1: if you have a lot, then you're more concerned with security,
11:23
Speaker 1: and I think at that point, yes, you could probably
11:25
Speaker 1: lean into maybe one of these centralized locations, even if
11:28
Speaker 1: it was just an exchange. So we'll see how this
11:31
Speaker 1: plays out. I'm kind of curious how this is going
11:33
Speaker 1: to look if we do start to see less volatility
11:36
Speaker 1: for bitcoin, how that detaches away from the rest of
11:39
Speaker 1: the market. When you think about that, you have to
11:42
Speaker 1: consider who else could could own bitcoins in terms of
11:46
Speaker 1: large entities. Well, one of them Sailor talks about is Apple.
11:50
Speaker 1: Take a look.
11:51
Speaker 2: Bitcoin is the digital transformation of capital. Micro strategy is
11:58
Speaker 2: just a business taking an advantage of the digital transformation.
12:04
Speaker 2: But if I was talking to Apple, I would say,
12:07
Speaker 2: don't buy back one hundred billion of your stock, buy
12:09
Speaker 2: one hundred billion of bitcoin. It will go to five
12:12
Speaker 2: hundred billion. You'll have a five hundred billion dollar business
12:15
Speaker 2: growing twenty percent a year. You'll make one hundred billion
12:18
Speaker 2: of investment games a year. Your investors will look at
12:21
Speaker 2: it and they'll add a trillion or two trillion dollars
12:23
Speaker 2: to your market cap. And now the company will be
12:26
Speaker 2: valued sixty percent based upon the operating business, forty percent
12:31
Speaker 2: based on the balance sheet, right, and the risk will shift.
12:38
Speaker 2: If the company had forty billion dollars of tangible assets
12:41
Speaker 2: on the balance sheet and it was that puts a
12:44
Speaker 2: floor right on the equity. And really what you want
12:47
Speaker 2: is you want a well balanced company where it's like
12:52
Speaker 2: Harvard University or Yale. They're not valued based upon the
12:55
Speaker 2: earnings of this semester of freshmen entering Harvard valued because
13:00
Speaker 2: they have eighteen billion in the endowment.
13:05
Speaker 1: You know, listen, Sailor's not wrong there in the sense
13:07
Speaker 1: of how companies are valued and looked at by investors.
13:10
Speaker 1: And he is right because he's obviously and walking the
13:13
Speaker 1: walk there with micro strategy in terms of the evaluation
13:15
Speaker 1: of what they've been able to do a Bitcoin. However,
13:18
Speaker 1: there's one thing he doesn't quite put together, and maybe
13:20
Speaker 1: it's just the clips, but he's talking about less volatility,
13:23
Speaker 1: but then he says that it could double, you know,
13:26
Speaker 1: from a billion to five hundred billion, I think is
13:28
Speaker 1: what he said. That's a lot of volatility, and I
13:31
Speaker 1: think that's what major publicly traded companies are trying to
13:35
Speaker 1: get away from, is the volatility side of things, because
13:37
Speaker 1: a negative volatility, as we all known, even when Tesla
13:41
Speaker 1: was holding bitcoin on its balance sheet, if it goes
13:43
Speaker 1: down a little bit, the market looks at that, and
13:46
Speaker 1: of course they're going to respond to it. It's a
13:47
Speaker 1: little different, I think with micro strategy because your whole
13:50
Speaker 1: premise of how your business is run is built on that. That
13:53
Speaker 1: is a different model. So I don't know how that
13:56
Speaker 1: plays out with a major top five company in the globe,
14:01
Speaker 1: especially as a publicly traded one. We'll see. But because
14:04
Speaker 1: of that, there's a lot of other top five companies
14:07
Speaker 1: out there that are starting to move on this. And this,
14:09
Speaker 1: of course is Stripe going in and we talked a
14:11
Speaker 1: little bit about this last week. One point one billion
14:13
Speaker 1: on the largest crypto deal ever this is getting bridged,
14:16
Speaker 1: which is another stable coin product. So it's an acquisition
14:20
Speaker 1: signal stripes expanding push into crypto services with as recent
14:24
Speaker 1: partnerships and coin based reinstatement of crypto payments via USDC,
14:28
Speaker 1: all of those are going to be huge I think
14:29
Speaker 1: going forward, and I think Stripe has finally woken up.
14:31
Speaker 1: Remember Stripe was in crypto all the way back in
14:35
Speaker 1: twenty eighteen, abandoned it and as now twenty twenty four,
14:38
Speaker 1: have come back out six years later, so this could
14:41
Speaker 1: play into a lot of things. Here was a report
14:44
Speaker 1: that I thought was interesting around real time payments that
14:47
Speaker 1: could boost global GDP by seventy four percent in five years.
14:51
Speaker 1: There was a few points I wanted to highlight with
14:53
Speaker 1: some charts. One, twenty twenty three reported contributed one hundred
14:57
Speaker 1: and sixty four billion to global GDP, be equivalent to
15:00
Speaker 1: about twelve million workers. That's pretty significant. By twenty twenty eight,
15:04
Speaker 1: this could jump up to around seventy four percent over
15:07
Speaker 1: the next five years. Consumers' business globally paved about one
15:10
Speaker 1: hundred and sixteen billion in transactions costs to twenty twenty three.
15:14
Speaker 1: This figure expected to go to two hundred and forty five.
15:16
Speaker 1: That's almost a little almost double actually, so pretty significant.
15:20
Speaker 1: And if you look at the countries in terms of
15:23
Speaker 1: potential uplift, there's a lot of them here, especially in
15:28
Speaker 1: some of these not necessarily emerging because Indurya is India
15:31
Speaker 1: is probably one of the leading GDP countries out there.
15:33
Speaker 1: But you've got Nigeria in here. Obviously, China will be involved,
15:36
Speaker 1: US still there, Brazil, which is a huge crypto nation,
15:40
Speaker 1: Turkey a will also be there as well. This is
15:43
Speaker 1: also getting into where people are talking about the unbanked.
15:46
Speaker 1: Twenty eight countries were in this role as well, so
15:49
Speaker 1: unbanked most likely going to see pretty significant growth as well,
15:53
Speaker 1: real time economic impacting. See India, Brazil, China looks like
15:57
Speaker 1: bricks nations. Even Mexico, which has been kind of highlighting
16:01
Speaker 1: really one of the areas I think is growing very
16:04
Speaker 1: fastest is Mexico and South America. But listen, you have
16:07
Speaker 1: to think about Mica because that's where most of the
16:11
Speaker 1: advancements are probably going to take place. Mica, of course,
16:14
Speaker 1: is what's happening in Europe, and this is all going
16:17
Speaker 1: to be pulled down to around these crypto offerings that
16:19
Speaker 1: are built around this new regulatory framework. Let me kind
16:22
Speaker 1: of zoom in on a couple points here. Many considered
16:25
Speaker 1: the continent a less important player. Now the fledgling regulation
16:28
Speaker 1: is introduced a complete, new new narrative, and that is
16:30
Speaker 1: where Europe is now the new path for crypto rather
16:33
Speaker 1: than trailing behind the US or Asia. And I think
16:36
Speaker 1: that is true. The key here is going to be
16:38
Speaker 1: based on the kind of products and services that are
16:40
Speaker 1: lost here, and I think coinbased, Robinhood, all of those
16:42
Speaker 1: have started to move. Tether's response because they're the one
16:45
Speaker 1: that's going to be essentially pushed out, says a statement
16:48
Speaker 1: promising to introduce a technology based solution to overcome the
16:53
Speaker 1: MECA compliance challenges. That'll be an interesting playout if that
16:57
Speaker 1: does occur. So a little bit vague, but yet still
17:01
Speaker 1: very interesting. So lots happening here. Stable coins I think
17:05
Speaker 1: will be the big key here in the United States
17:08
Speaker 1: if we do get and I do believe we will
17:09
Speaker 1: get regulatory framework, and I think that opens things up
17:13
Speaker 1: very big into knowing banks, but the financial institutions, as
17:17
Speaker 1: well as the potential for companies to start putting it
17:21
Speaker 1: on their balance sheet. Remember FASBI rules start to shift
17:24
Speaker 1: at the end of this year. That'll change things also
17:26
Speaker 1: for crypto investments. Here's Vanak Matthew Siegel talking about the
17:30
Speaker 1: EU enabling staking for Solana. This is going to be
17:34
Speaker 1: a pretty big deal. It's probably why we saw Salona
17:36
Speaker 1: running yesterday and over the weekend up significantly. So rewards
17:41
Speaker 1: of crew and reinvest Daily staking rewards also include end
17:44
Speaker 1: of day on the NAV and then Vanak also says
17:47
Speaker 1: to manage staking exposure to ensure staking daily liquidity. So
17:51
Speaker 1: some pretty big moves there which will be beneficial I
17:54
Speaker 1: think to Solona and probably other tokens out there as
17:57
Speaker 1: we start to see this as well. Listen, we're going
17:59
Speaker 1: to have We're gonna try to get John Deeton on
18:01
Speaker 1: the show this week. Make sure and watch for that.
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