Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / CLARITY Crash Incoming?📉Mark Yusko INTERVIEW

Transcript

CLARITY Crash Incoming?📉Mark Yusko INTERVIEW · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Well's dive into the retail market.
• 0:02
  Speaker 2: Trap?
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Is there a trap brewing here? Guys? We're going to
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: break it down for you. I've got a really good guess,
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: of course, which is going to lead us into where
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: the market trends are heading. Before we do that, I
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: want to thank our sponsor, and that is BTCC, where
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• 0:25
  Speaker 1: our link down below. Lots of other goodies that they
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: have for you. I want to bring in Mark Usko
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: from Morgan Creek Capital. He's been on our show before,
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: but nice to see you again. Mark.
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: How are you great to see you doing well? Happy spring?
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Yeah, finally I can tell because my sinuses get going
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: in the spring time. Magnolia trees in Florida are beautiful things,
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: but not beautiful to the sinuses in some cases. Hey Mark, Yeah, exactly. Listen,
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: We're looking at a couple of issues right now with
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: the Clarity Act. Big banks, some people say, are quietly
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: killing this by simply stalling the market. The markups into
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: May if that occurs, because we've had several out there,
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: including Chairman Scott, talking about the issues of not getting
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: the markup fast enough. What's your opinion right now on Clarity.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Do you think we are at the risk stage of
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: not getting it at all?
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: Sure? But but I mean definitely there's a risk, Paul,
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: I just don't think that's going to happen unfortunately. I
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: think Clarity in its current form is a horrible bill, right.
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: It's been written by the usual suspects, the incumbents who
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: are backed by you know, big money in the incumbents,
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: big banks. And you know they've said it out loud,
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: like they've said the quiet part out loud, right, you had,
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: you know, Moyn a hand at Bank of America say well,
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: you know we'd lose trillions of dollars in deposits. Yes,
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: yes you would, because if you don't pay p before
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: their capital and they can get paid somewhere else, they
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: will move. And you know it's it's just interesting. I
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: think the Genius Act and Clarity together, I believe we're
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: written in such a way to try to forestall the inevitable,
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: which is the transition to a better form of money
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: and and where we can be our own bank. But
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: you know, but I do think that there's enough people
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: on the other side pushing for real regulatory change, in
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: regulatory clarity that you know, we're at that that funny
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: divide that ends up with no action, which you know,
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: maybe that's good for us long term.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Okay, So okay, so you're would you give it, you know,
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: an over fifty percent chance right now of getting through.
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: I think most legislation oftally passes. It's just the timing
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: that's hard. So I think it will definitely pass in
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: some form, so greater than fifty percent chance. But I
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: think the current form is bad enough that enough people
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: are still fighting it now if you can nudge Brian Armstrong,
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: which it appears they have, into their camp, you know,
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: he went from public enemy number one in the Wall
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: Street Journal to like lobbying a little bit for for clarity.
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: You know, I still don't understand how a Senator Lummas
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: completely flipped from you know, an open bill supporting Trump
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: strategic bitcoin reserve to now regulatory capture in the form
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: of clarity.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: So, in your opinion, it's a bad bill. If you
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: had your you know, your wishes you would vote died.
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: You know again is today is the birthday of the
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: Roman Empire, So I do.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: This right, okay, all right, yeah, all right, well there
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: you go. Well, let's move on to a little bit
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: around what's happening in the war because obviously we are
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: dealing with issues right now that you know. It's interesting
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: too because everything that happens in Iran and the straight
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: seems to have a direct impact on what's happening in crypto.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: Where do you think do you think Trump and this
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: play has been bad for crypto in general or do
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: you think this is just global macro doing global macro stuff.
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: Again, such a great, a great point, Paul. Look, crypto, bitcoin,
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: crypto broadly, it is just a giant macro trade, right
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: what it is? You know, Crypto per se, stable coins
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: and cryptocurrency are better rails for doing finance of the future.
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: So the financial services market will eventually all be on crypto. Now,
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: some say it'll all be on bitcoin, some say it
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: lobby on bitcoin theory him and a few others. At
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: the end of the day we'll find that out. But ultimately,
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: everything right, every stock, every bond, every currency, every commodity,
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: every everything, is going to be digitized. You know, we
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: backed a company figure that is helping put you know,
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: real world assets on chain for the first time and
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: basically competing against DTCC. So I do think this is
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: all going to happen. I just think the President said
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: whatever it took to get elected. That's what politicians do, right,
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: And so he made a bunch of promises. You know,
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: I'm a big Maverick fan, son your egos right and
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: checks your body can't cash right, top gun. So he
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: can't do the things that he promised unilaterally, you know,
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: so he needed Congress. Well, Congress, most of them are
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: funded by the people that Crypto is trying to displace
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: his Warren for example. So he I'm not saying he's good, bad,
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: or indifferent other than he's been ineffective at pushing the
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: legislation he promised, because well, one, presidents don't make legislation,
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: they sign it after Congress does. And two he's his
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: team is good at certain things, but they're certainly what
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: it appears so far we've seen, not really good at
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: affecting much change of any time. And then this this
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: gambit in the Middle East. You know, we go, we
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: could spend all afternoon talking about it. I just think
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: complete disaster on every front. We've got eight hundred ships
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: stranded in the straight still despite it, you know, being
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: the blockade, and then the blockade of the blockade, and
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: then we're open, but then we're not open. And at
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: the end of the day, you can't I don't believe, right,
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: and history would be on my side. You can't win
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: conflicts halfway around the world. We've tried dozens of times,
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: pretty much lost them all. And you know, if it
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: escalates to a world war, you know we're undefeated there.
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: But I think the skirmishes tend to be just long
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: funding acts for military spending, and that's not really good
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: for everything else except for money supply. Global money supply
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: pall is on an extreme ramp, which is partly why
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: since the shooting started, the best performing asset has been bitcoined.
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: And it's not close. Right. Gold is actually down since
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: the shooting started, and stocks are basically flat, bonds are
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: basically flat, bitcoins up. So it's interesting.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: So you look at the S and P five hundred,
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: you're hitting all time high. Now again, here we go
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: into the end of the year. I want to play
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: a clip for you. This is Tom Lee talking about
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: what could fuel this next phase. Take a look.
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: So, I think investors viewed the war and the start
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: of the war as a time to take risk off
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: the table, which was very different than what we saw
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: a year ago when investors were buying into the terror flows.
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: And now I think that the downside tail risks have
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: been removed for the war. Hedge funds have been early
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: and they've been adding risk, and that we can confirm
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: that from talking to our clients. And I think now
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: it's retail investors that are now beginning to take money
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: off the sidelines and buy stocks.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: I mean not just tariffs, but anything else politically that's happened.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, buy the dips has become a well known catchphrase.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: So it's surprising that they were even kind of going
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: the other way this time.
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: It is surprising. I was quite surprised because I would
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: have assumed if someone asked me in twenty twenty six,
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: a war is going to start, what will retail do,
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: I would assume that.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: They'd buy the dip.
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: I think the state of the consumer is one thing
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: versus maybe how they might here in a radio commercial
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: or the surveys. But I do think the consumers in
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: better shape, so I think the retail investor will end
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: up chasing this.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Wow, so retail chasing this? You look at the fear
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: and greed index. I don't know, Mark, do you buy
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: this right now?
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: I don't even buy it a lit I mean, I
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: actually don't agree with anything. And I like Tom, but
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: I don't agree with anything you just said. The data
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: actually doesn't support it, you know. And there's this confluence
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: of I'm not confluenced. There's a conflation of terms. Everyone
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: talks about retail money, but they don't take out essentially
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: the institutionalized retail, which is every two weeks people's four
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: to one ks and four or three b's right go
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: into the market. That's not retail speculation. That is your
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: pension fund that went from defined benefit to define contribution
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: back in nineteen eighty six. So that money just goes
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: in and it's dumb, meaning it's rules based, it's passive.
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: It doesn't get to think it has to buy whatever
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: has the highest market cap, and so that just continues
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: to buy. The Other thing that doesn't jive with what
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: he's saying is retail going to the sidelines options activity
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: and single day options are the highest they've ever been,
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: and so yes, they're speculation. My view is the speculation
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: is small. It's kind of like when people talk about
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: Robinhood versus Schwab or Vanguard or Fidelity. Yeah, it's grown
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: really fast, but the average account is four thousand dollars.
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: It doesn't really matter. Now, it can matter for a
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: single stock like what's happening with Avis Budget. You can
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: engineer a short squeeze like what happened with Game Stop,
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: but for the overall market, it's just not enough money
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: compared to what the boomers. Right, my brethren and sister
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: now there that own all the assets. Look at the
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: difference between the top ten percent and the bottom fifty
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: percent in terms of ownership of.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: Asset, huge difference.
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: The top and those people, what are they buying. They're
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: buying bonds. They're not buying green bananas and they're buying bonds.
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: And that's a very different dynamic, and it's partly why
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: we see more deflationary forces than inflationary forces. We see
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: devaluation forces, and we see oil price increases. And that's
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: the last one where I don't agree with the consumer
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: being in good shape. The consumer was expecting the largest
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: tax refunds I think in history. That's just large law
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: of large numbers. But most of it is going to
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: be totally erased by the fact the gasoline prices almost doubled.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that was the.
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: Worst decision I think in terms of the incumbents wanting
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: to win midterm elections, if gasoline prices are still over
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: four dollars by fall, they're going to get slaughtered.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: I mean close. Yeah, I think this is the issue.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: We are at the line, I think the line in
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: the sand right now from a macro standpoint, and I
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: am to your point, I just don't buy this market
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: recovery right now. I'm still super skeptical. I'm very cautious
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: right now in terms of what plays are out there.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: And you look at this and then you kind of
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: consider what's happening with the FED. You've got warsh getting
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: ready to jump in the nominee. He's going to potentially
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: right now keep monetary policies somewhat independent, and he claims
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: that he is. But do you what do you think
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: right now? I mean, the worsh is like part of
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: the family.
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's it's an engineered system. So now they'll
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: have Treasury Secretary and UH head of the FED both
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: in the club steering in a certain direction, and the
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: ultimately this is the only way out right. What this
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: group of people is trying to engineer is something that
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: mathematically shouldn't occur. A market can't really be worth much
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: more than the GDP that produces the market. In fact,
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: it should be worth about seventy cents on the dollar,
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: because remember, it costs money to make money, right right
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: when you run a factory, we have to spend for electricity.
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: That that's the crazy thing about Open Eye. They taken
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: a dollar of revenue and they spend three dollars and
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: fifty eight cents. You can't make that up on volume.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: I can't say I believe I'm saying this. I'm thinking
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: you might actually be agreeing with Senator Warren on this.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: So I want to play a clips the first time,
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: first time for everything. Let's play it.
• 13:50
  Speaker 4: Clear that he does not want an independent fit. In fact,
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: he has said, and I quote, anybody that disagrees with
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: me will never be fed chairman. And he's made clear
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: that you are his sock puppets, saying last week that
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: interest rates will drop. Quote when Kevin gets in. Yeah,
• 14:08
  Speaker 4: I think they do. Not when economic conditions change will
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: get lower rates. Not when the economy needs it. Nope,
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: he said, When my guy Kevin Walsh is in there,
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: we'll get the interest rates that I Donald Trump wants.
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: So independence takes courage. Let's check out your independence and
• 14:27
  Speaker 4: your courage. We'll start easy. Mister worsh did Donald Trump
• 14:30
  Speaker 4: lose the twenty twenty election?
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: We try to keep politics if I'm confirmed out of
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: the funnel.
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: I'm just asking a factual question. I need to know.
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: I need to measure your independence and your courage.
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: Senator, I believe that this body certified that election many
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: years ago.
• 14:48
  Speaker 4: That's not the question I'm asking. I'm asking did Donald
• 14:50
  Speaker 4: Trump lose in twenty twenty?
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: Man, I'm suggesting you that.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: Wow, man, I you know as much as I did
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: like Warren, she knows how to cut to the bone
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: on these questions. And Warsh was unable to answer that
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: for her implication is that there's a reason for that.
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: Do you agree with that? Do you think he is
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: a sock puppet? So?
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but not of Trump?
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: Okay, So I do believe tell me more, nook.
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: I don't think Trump or any president that we've had
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: for the last I don't know, one hundred plus years
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: is in charge. Right. There's a different group of people
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: that make the decisions and get the people appointed that
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: they want appointed, and get the people elected that they
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: want elected. And that's our system works, right. The people
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: with the money pull the strings. So I don't think
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: the Donald is is the puppet master. I think he
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: is a puppet himself. Trump didn't pick Kevin Warren. Someone
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: else said this is the person you're going to put
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: in same thing with Jerome Powell. I mean, I'm not
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: saying Donald Trump isn't the person that could make that
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: type of decision, but he's not an economist. He doesn't
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: hobnob with people in the economic industry or the financial
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: services industry. He's a real estate guy. And so his
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: ability to say, oh, yeah, that's the most qualified person
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: for this job, it's not how it works. Right. You
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: get some people to help you identify. I would argue
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: that there's another group of people behind those people that
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: you know, sets these things in motion.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: And that's interesting.
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: If you get different cabinets, they look the way they do.
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: So you're in agreement, no rate cuts with war or
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: or with polymarket. I see it right now, at least
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: no ray cuts this year.
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: I think what we know about worsh is he actually
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: is pretty well qualified, like maybe the most well qualified
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: person we've added a long time. I mean, whether he
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: is beholden to a whole bunch of people who got
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: him to where he is. I know we'll find.
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: Out, Yeah, we're going to find out this summer for
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: sure of how this plays out for a fed ray cut,
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: especially if Tom Lee is even incrementally right on a
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: market that continues to move. But if we do see
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: a market pullback, then you know, it all starts to
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: get into one thing I think is going to be Clarity.
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: I want to go to our lightning round with you
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: and short answers. Clarity breaks the four year cycle for ethereum.
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: Do you think that if Clarity goes through it breaks
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: the four year cycle for ethereum this year?
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: No? I think the four year cycle exists because of
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: bitcoin code and therefore an ethereum follows Bitcoin, and just
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: it's a liquidity, you know, waterfalls. So I don't know.
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: I don't think so. I think it's good for ethereum.
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: Don't get me wrong, but I don't think it breaks
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: the cycle. Humans are going to human Let's.
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: Go for it. If Clarity doesn't pass, we crash to
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: a new yearly low on crypto in general.
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: No, I'll actually go the other way. If Clarity does pass,
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: we probably we probably extend the bear market longer. I
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: think if Clarity passes, maybe instead of being September October
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: to get the ultimate kind of break into crypto's spring
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: out of winter, maybe that that advances.
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: All right, So I'm gonna say if it doesn't pass.
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: If Clarity does, If Clarity doesn't pass, we crash to him. No,
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: I don't think so.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: No, all right, Okay, let's move on to this one.
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: Right here, Circle learn their lesson on not phrasing hacked funds.
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: Do you agree on that one? Hacked funds?
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: So Circle will not freeze hacked funds?
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah? Okay, so yeah, that's yeah, that's the question. Do
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: you think they because they did not freeze hacked funds
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: and they had the chance.
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: Oh okay, God, I misunderstood. I thought this said that
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: they did.
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: No, no, no, no, okay, So you agree? All right? Okay,
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: so I agree? Actually, yeah, okay, all right, So okay,
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: down the wrong tip yeah, right, Tether flips bitcoin after
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: a successful audit. Do you think that would happen?
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: Oh, tether's market cap versus bigcoin? No?
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: No, no, all right, let's go on to this one
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: right here. Trump term will be less chaotic on markets
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: after the midterms when he loses, Oh for sure.
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: I mean because the third year is always amazing because
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: the incumbent's trying to, you know, keep their party in power,
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: so they will pull out. I mean, whether it's putting
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: pressure on the Fed, whether it's passing fiscal stimulus, whether
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: it's you know, he's already promising the biggest tax cut
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: in history, which never delivers, but he's promising it again.
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: So third year of presidential cycles are always you know,
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: the best.
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: Okay, all right? What would be the bigger cat nip
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: for institutional investors? Would it be revenue share tokens or
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: token by backs?
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: Do you think it's a great question. I'd give it,
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: maybe just a slight nudge to revenue share, although I
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: like the token by back.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, Or you're institutional, so.
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: You I think I think you're both both attractive, but
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: I give a little nudge to revenue share.
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: Okay. What will be the more successful new bank launch
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: Ripple and Circle, or if Robinhood gets their banking off
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: the ground.
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: I don't think Ripple's ever going to get what they promise,
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: So I'll go with Robin Hood.
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: Okay, Robin Hood, Okay, let's go man, Mark Usco. This
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: is you're coming in hot today with some good texts here.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: What's politically worse for crypto industry sentiment right now? World
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: Liberty FI or what happened with FTX?
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: Definitely FTX. I mean, people are trying to make World
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: Liberty out to be some big scandal, but you know,
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: it pales in comparison in terms of dollars. The presidents
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: have taken donations from world powers. You know, they did
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: it through their foundations.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: Sure, it's now just a creative crypto.
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: Way, and you know it. Why is it okay for
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: the Clinton Foundation to accept a big giant donation from
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: the Saudi government. I've never understood that, right, because if
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: they're still in power, why should they be allowed to
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: do that? But they were, and and you know all
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: the other presidents have foundations, So I just think it's
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: it's a new age version of the same bad.
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: Actor and activity. What about this one, uh, is Boomer
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: capital actually worried about bitcoin quantum risk? Do you think
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: that's a concern right now?
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: I just I just on the verge of no. I
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: think the fud is really active. I think there are
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: some people that are worried about it, But I think
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: generally speaking, those of us, and because I'm a boomer,
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: those of us who know anything about bitcoin are are
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: not really worried about it. You know, quantum is one
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: of these things that the idea is interesting. In practice,
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: we're still a long long way away. And and I
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: still contend that if I, if I, you know, we're
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: gifted a quantum machine. The first thing I'm attacking is Bitcoin.
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: That's worth you know So's coins, the market cap, he
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: tends of billions. You know, the nuclear codes are worth
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: way more than that. JP Morgan's bank accounts are worth
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: way more than that. So I just don't. I don't
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: see it.
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: But here's the last question. Poly market becomes the biggest
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: insurance marketplace for investors. What do you think?
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: You know? So, I'm on record saying that the rebranding
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: of gambling to prediction markets is the greatest rebrand in
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: the history of rebrands. I mean it's like, you know,
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: it's it's like trying to upgrade you know, the world's
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: oldest profession to you know, the escort service. I mean
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: it it sounds a little better, but it's the same thing.
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: And so I now trying to brand it as as
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: an insurance marketplace. No, I mean it's still it's still
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: speculation and gambling. Now, can you say insurance is a
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: form of speculation. No, it's a form of hedging, and
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: insurance is about spreading risks. So so I guess I'll
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: circle all the way back to say it's certainly possible
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: that if no, it's certainly possible that if people are
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: willing to accept that this marketplace is a place to
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: pool risk. Now, history has shown that these marketplaces don't
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: actually develop, and the reason mostly is because regulators don't
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: like it. Right, if you think about it, we should
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: for it now, we should have nationalized health insurance. Oh no, no,
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: we don't know, of course you do. We don't want
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: each state to be a separate risk pool. We don't
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: want each company to be like I have you know,
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: twenty five people in my company, and I'm a risk pool. Well,
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: that means if I have one person who has to
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: buy an expensive drug. My premiums go crazy. It's just silly.
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: I should pool with dozens of other groups, companies, and
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: the more you pull your risk the better. So I
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: can see the efficacy of broader, faster, real time updated
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: markets being you know, used for insurance.
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think it. I think it. I think
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: it will be. I'm kind of on the other side
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: in the sense that I think poly market is is
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: going to go that direction with these prediction markets. Well,
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: but hey, listen, we're gonna we're gonna find out how
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: these markets come down, especially if we get some regulation
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: built around this. Mark Usco. Always fun having you on
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: the show. Thank you so much for coming in today.
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: We appreciate it, enjoyed it. Have a good one, Paull.
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: We'll talk to you soon.
• 26:01
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• 26:03
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• 26:07
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