Latest / The Specific Jawns / Are The Phillies The Best Team In Baseball?
Transcript
- speaker-0: Hello and welcome to the specific Johns Phillies baseball podcast. My name's Carl Bakudi, back in action for this weekly John into all things Phillies. I'm here with my buddies Mike Sambuco and Pat Barker. They held the fort down last week, did a great job. It is our September first, twenty twenty six edition of our podcast, and we are gonna do a at least spend a chunk of the episode With a a a glowing retrospect of the month of August. I'll get started with my guys first. Mike, how was your August? speaker-1: Hey, we had a great August here ⁓ in Balkinwood. ⁓ but September's off to a great start. I get to hang out with you guys now. speaker-0: Great answer. Great answer. How about you, Pat? What did August look like for you? speaker-2: August was great for me. I ⁓ I managed to I hit four major league parks. I saw both both ⁓ both ballparks in Chicago. I was down in Anaheim this weekend for a couple of the Phillies games down there. got to go up to Seattle on like a fun work comedy thing at the Seahawks facility. So ⁓ August is gonna be tough to beat, but if the Phillies can manage to catch the Braves, which I'm sure we're gonna talk about, ⁓ it might it might beat August. So no pressure on the boys, but that's that's where I'm speaker-0: We will absolutely be talking about that shortly. Yeah, not a bad month at all if you're a Phillies fan. I gotta say I I had a great August as well, but you guys don't care what I have to say. Let's talk about the Philz. We got ⁓ a great ending to the month. We got four games since our last episode. I'll do a nice little recap just to get ourselves get our bearings. So we finished off a a a series in Seattle, which wasn't ideal. But they did finish it off with a very complete game, I would say, last Wednesday. You guys recorded on Thursday. That was an off day for the Philz. And they got right back into their winning streak ways, which has been more the norm than we're used to in the past ⁓ half ha month and a half, I would say. So the Phils ⁓ went into Anaheim, not a good team. We know that, but it's still major league baseball and you still gotta win the games that you're supposed to. We went up there ⁓ with Andrew Painter on Friday night. He gave up three runs in the first, one of those sort of trends that we've noticed, I'd say, especially in his return from AAA. A little shaky early on, but then settles down, and that's exactly what he did in that game. He didn't give up another run. We were down three one going into the ninth inning, looking like a wasted performance by Andrew Painter. And then more magic, just like we had the Sunday before in a lot of games, frankly, in the past month. We were down three one. The Angels robbed Bryson Stott of what looked like a go ahead three run homer. A fantastic catch by a a guy who looks like he's from another generation. Little mustache, glasses. I'm not even gonna remember his name, but you know who I'm talking about. Put some respect in that corner. Of course his name's Wade Meckler. He looks like a Wade Meckler, if anyone ever has. ⁓ he's the guy who made that amazing catch. That corner ⁓ of Angels Stadium this year has gotten so many highlights. I mean Joe Adele was in there the first half of the season. I think he robbed three in one game. ⁓ he unbelievable moments. speaker-2: Three in one game and the last one was when he fell over the fence and held the ball up in the crowd, which was so badass. And ⁓ I I gotta tell ya, the game on Sunday they were giving away Joe Adele football jerseys on advertisement for in a couple weeks they're giving away Joe Adele in the crowd, holding up the ball, bobbleheads. The guy has been traded to Cleveland. speaker-0: No. speaker-2: And they did not scrap any of the giveaways. Artie Moreno's last act as owner was we it's a sunk cost. We're giving away the Joe Adele shit whether he's here or not. I love speaker-0: If there's anything that sums up the Angels for the past twenty years, that that's just perfect. And as was announced today, Artie Marino finally ⁓ releasing his vice grip on that fan base, selling the team to the owner of the LA Rams and the Colorado Avalanche and Denver Nuggets, I think. It's just nonsense what these owners are doing across towns. But anyway, Josh Harris. ⁓ so we'll continue to the end of that ⁓ incredible comeback on Friday night. We didn't get the go-ahead homer Bryson Stott, but we did get a pinch hit, two out, grand slam, game winning home run from Edmundo Sosa, a guy that everybody loves. We've loved that guy since he got here in two thousand and twenty-two. You gotta give credit to Dombo for that one, no matter how things turn out. That was a a great trade that he made for a great guy in the clubhouse ⁓ and in the pr in in his postgame interviews. Doesn't even speak English and you just feel the joy permeate before you even get the translation. He's one of those types of guys. Love him. And he's been on an absolute tear ⁓ in August. And hopefully that will continue into the playoffs because we need those bench guys. I do want to talk about the bench overall at some point in this episode. Moving on to Saturday's game, we had Christopher Sanchez which it with a vintage seven inning pitched, shutout ball. He we did lose the the the chance to win him his seventeenth game of the season. Bolin gave up a run in the eighth, but the Phillies took over again. ⁓ it went to ten innings. Kyle Schwarber, Trey Turner providing some clutch offense. We win that game four to two. And then the ⁓ the getaway game on Sunday, another ⁓ you know, just ⁓ nothing too impressive from the Angels, but was more important To see how Zach Wheeler did, and I do want to talk about him a lot. ⁓ it was a 5-2 win overall in which Zach Wheeler looked shaky mechanically in the first inning, got out of it. He hits Mike Trout, had a few walks again in that game, but by all reports and his own responses to interviews, he figured something out by the fourth inning of that game that he believes will be. Continuing ⁓ that he'll just be out of this rut that he's been in in August. One of the rare not bright spots for the Phillies this past month, as we'll get to. So then last night we ended up in Arizona for a three game stint. We are recording right before game two of that series on Tuesday. But last night just a just a ⁓ Basic game, a two-one victory, didn't need a lot of offense. The pitching was solid from Aaron Nol again. He gave us five innings. Pitch count was a little high, but he got the job done, gave up no runs. Bryson Stott hit the longest home run of his career. ⁓ and then we ended up, you know, just w winning just a solid game, a a few missed opportunities, one of those games where we did not knock guys in and scoring position as much as you'd like, but the plate approach was still there. in the way that it has been for the past month since the Luis Araj trade ⁓ in the beginning of August. So just to recap some things that we saw in the month of August, now that we can put a button on it, ⁓ they went 21 and 7 for the month. Unbelievable record. The last time they did that well, I believe they were 18 and 7 in 2011. And we know the kind of season we had then, winning 102 games. the key Offensive stats that I'm focusing on, and there there's there's quite a few to focus on. But we had the highest we were the highest in baseball in walk rate on the offensive side of the ball, eleven point two percent, and also the lowest strikeout rate offensively at fifteen point nine percent in the league. That is not something we would ever have expected. we talked about predictions at the beginning of the season. I don't think anyone would have landed on that type of a stat for any given month, let alone ⁓ in the season. And they did all that while ranking in the bottom, I believe, five in the league in home runs. So twenty one and seven, walking a lot, not striking out, not ri living and dying by the home run, something has happened in the month of August that I know we've all been clamoring for for about four years with this team. I always want to point to the Luisa Rise trade as the catalyst. He's the guy that I'll say to I'm blue in the face I won it three years ago. I believe, and you guys talked about it last week, that the chain reaction caused by him being in the lineup is the reason for this. Bryce Harper is on an absolute tear. I think he is the type of player who can go on that type of tear anyway. But we're talking ⁓ it even extra juice to it. Because of the situation around him in the batting order. He's on a thirty-three game on base streak, I believe, ⁓ and a whole bunch of juicy stats that you can point to about Bryce Harper. ⁓ on the pitching side of things, you know, just an incredible month by Jesus Lazardo and Christopher Sanchez, both of them with ERA's in the ones. ⁓ Aaron Nolas turnaround has been a sight to behold. ⁓ you know, he had a five point eight two ERA going ⁓ into the month of August and finished with a two point six over his pre didn't finish with a two point six overall, but a two point six ERA in his last six starts. That is an incredible turnaround, ⁓ the type of thing that we make will make you think of him as a fourth starter in the playoffs. And we haven't even gotten to Andrew Painter yet. I'm gonna stop there with the stats and recaps. ⁓ guys, what for you jumped out the most? from this month of August, whether it's a stat or a storyline, what are you carrying into September that you think really has meat that we will carry into October even? speaker-1: Think in terms of the most impactful piece, it's definitely the lineup approach because that's something that you hope they bring in ⁓ into October. But in terms of the regular season and trying to track down the Braves and just getting through the regular season with the the starting pitching depth that they really just don't have, the biggest part of August has been the resurgence of Aaron Nola and ⁓ Andrew Painter. I mean, where would we be without them? They we had a struggle a tough month for Wheeler and a so-so month for Sanchez and Lizardo's been nails for most of the month, but ⁓ just without the depth that they have in the minor leagues the and and going through the trade deadline without acquiring anybody from outside the org, they really took a big risk in to the second half of the season. And NOLA now with an ERA finally below five for the season and Painter's been ⁓ outside of the first inning it's been absolutely fantastic. His ERA ⁓ since the ⁓ call up is three point seven eight in total, but it's under two ⁓ outside of the first inning. So he's he's one of the rare guys that is like improving as the game goes on, whereas ⁓ most guys struggle in the third time through the lineup, he's actually best third time through the lineup. ⁓ anyway, but Without those two guys coming back and pitching the way they have, you really have no shot at catching the Braves in September like they do right now. speaker-2: In another direction, because you're right, but I don't want to just repeat the same things that you said. I'm gonna shout out the bullpen and the bench. ⁓ and maybe this is not an overall August thing, but certainly recently, I mean, you know, Derek Hill, since the moment he got to Philadelphia, has been a difference maker on really both sides of the ball at, you know, the the biggest times. ⁓ he had two push bunts for hits in the last ⁓ the last week. One of them was a squeeze. ⁓ Brian DeLacruz coming up and getting big hits ⁓ to keep rallies going and to ⁓ you know really just kind of pass the baton to the next guy. That's what led to that Schwarber walk off. That was a big hit in that game. ⁓ Justin Crawford, who is a starter, but I consider him part of the bench because he's kind of in this platoon role. I saw him have a couple of really good plate appearances down in Anaheim in really important key moments. He's coming up strong. ⁓ You know, Garrett Stubbs even seems like a like an adequate backup catcher right now. And then you look at the bullpen, like yes, ⁓ you know, ⁓ they they Bolin had a hiccup the other night when he gave up the the home run to Zach Neto to tie the game. But then Duran came in and threw two scoreless innings to pick up the win. So he was unavailable the next night and Kirkering kinda like stepped up and and closed the door. ⁓ Alvarado has looked better. Brooks Rayleigh has looked good, although criminally underused to this point. I hope that they they start using him a little bit more. And on top of all that, Mike, your boy Alex McFarlane is a difference maker in that bullpen. His stuff looks incredible. I feel so much better about the bullpen than I did even two or three weeks ago. ⁓ and really, if Nola and Painter are able to give you five quality innings and the other starters are on point, It just ties everything together and this starts to look like a cohesive team where nobody is trying to do too much. And I feel like I've seen so much of the last couple of years. The theme for the Phillies is everybody's trying to do too much. And I do think it is connected to the arrival of Louisa Rise, Bryce Harper, for the first time in a long time, with the exception of trying to steal home, which I'm gonna talk about later here. ⁓ He's not trying to do too much. At the plate, he's like, You wanna walk me? Walk me, no problem. The other guys have my back. ⁓ all of these guys are like, What can I do to contribute to this team winning this game today? And that is what makes a championship team. And I just feel like I haven't seen that on this squad in a couple of years, frankly. So it's beautiful. speaker-0: Yeah, couldn't agree more with either of you guys. I'll I'll just I'll repeat a little bit ⁓ but ⁓ frame it a little differently and what I see about this team that that makes me feel like we are gonna go on a a a ⁓ legit run in the postseason. I just wanna look at the lineup turnover, the pieces that we had on the opening day and what we have now, and just considering the value that we have there. ⁓ because, you know, it's been a top heavy lineup. We always know the big stars that we have in this lineup and they are performing. for the most part, other than I would say Trey Turner. ⁓ you know, basically what you hope to get out of them in this past month, maybe a little bit more. Maybe we're due for some mean regression from an Alec Bom or Bryson Stott at some point in the next month ahead. But overall, you know, we started this year with okay, Raphael Marchand, now we have Garrett Stubbs. We know what Marchand looked like at the plate his entire stint this season. It was not good. I I had high hopes for that guy as a switch hitter especially. ⁓ the rotation seemed to like him, but saw no progress whatsoever ⁓ within the season or or building off of last season. ⁓ Stubbs, you know, he's a guy we get annoyed when we talk about vibes when we're not doing well, but in this iteration of the Phillies, Garrett Stubbs encapsulates everything that we're loving about baseball right now in Philadelphia. So you gotta look at that as a big plus. And then it gets even heavier when we when you look at the turnover. We swapped ⁓ a guy you actually mentioned briefly ⁓ in the podcast last week, Dylan Moore for Luisa Rice. Obviously ⁓ not not a one for one, but if you look at the lineup on opening day to what we have now, that's the different infielder that we have. And then in the outfield we swapped Adoles Garcia. Obviously sucks that he got injured, but Adoles Garcia and Otto Kemp for Derek Hill and Brian De la Cruz. And these are guys that we're mentioning consistently. on this run, that is a sustained run at this point, who are those margin guys who who bring the juice in big moments, who don't look rattled, slow heartbeats, however you want to put it, and are functional. You can put them in as defensive replacements and trust them. You can put them in at big moments pinch hitting and trust them. And that's not even mentioning Edmundo Sosa, who has basically flipped who he was as a player in the first half of the season. What he is now, which is actually what we're more used to seeing Edmundo as. ⁓ granted, we did kind of rely on him ⁓ to start a lot more games, I think, early in the season, which is not his forte. He is meant to be exactly how he's being used right now. ⁓ I think he would be exposed otherwise. But ⁓ this is the type of stuff that a team builds off of. This is when you talk about momentum, that's where it comes from. It's when you look at the postgame ⁓ locker room. vibe, it all those guys are in it. ⁓ they're getting big hits, they're coming back for ⁓ you know, late inning rallies, and and that's what I see. ⁓ that I believe is is meant to be and is going to carry us. I don't see that dissipating ⁓ for the rest of this year. I'm gonna I'm gonna hang my hat on that and really get fired up for what we're looking at ahead, which is what I want to get to next. We are Sitting at 78 wins and 60 losses on the season. We're four games exactly from the Braves. We've both played the same number of games, none of that half game nonsense at the moment. ⁓ but we ⁓ you know we're on a pace to win 91 to 92 games. To get there, we would only need to go 500 in September. We have 24 games in the calendar month. We go 12 and 12. 90 wins should get us into the postseason, no matter how things fall with the rest of the league. There's a lot of room to gain on the Atlanta Braves. We play seven games against them in this month. Starting with a four game set at home, starting on Friday, carrying over to the Labor Day holiday. And we will not have to face Chris Sale. I am pretty excited about this weekend series. Barker, you and I are gonna be at Friday night's game. Sanchez will be on the bump. I I I just I can't remember being this excited about a regular season series. ⁓ maybe not since you know the heyday of s of ⁓ seven to eleven. ⁓ it really feels like we're gonna do something. Even in twenty two when we did kind of sneak into that last playoff spot, beginning of September felt like we were done. Even third week of September felt like we were done. This is this is this is going to be a fun month and I'm really excited for it. ⁓ what are you guys looking at in terms of Positioning, matchups, who are you afraid of in the postseason? How do you think the chips might fall in the national league? speaker-2: Well, listen, first of all, great break for me. ⁓ that a friend of mine is getting married this weekend. And ⁓ I hit you up maybe like a month ago and said, Hey, I'm gonna be in town, ⁓ do you have you know, are you going on September fourth? I had no idea that it was gonna be this kinda like high stakes, ⁓ which is great. And I'm getting the Sanchez game, which is even better, and we're avoiding sale, which is maybe best of all. ⁓ looking ahead, which is always of course dangerous, but we don't play for the team, so it's not like we can affect anything, who cares? I'm looking forward to like a really fun September. ⁓ you know, and other than those games against Atlanta, you got three at home against Houston, who, you know, are not as good as the Phillies. They're being carried by Jordan Alvarez. Outside of him, that's a pretty bad team that might make the playoffs because of him and because the AL West is so bad. But make no mistake, the Phillies should have the the leg up in those games. You do have four on the road against the Mets, and the Mets have been playing a lot better since they sold everybody at the all star break. But if if the Phillies go into that, you know, with a shot at winning the East, they they should be hungry enough. They're a better team. The three at home against Milwaukee, those are probably still gonna mean something for Milwaukee. That concerns me a little bit. ⁓ and then three at home against Tampa Bay, you just kinda hope that Tampa Bay has everything like locked up on their end by that point and they don't have much to play for. It looks like a very winnable schedule ⁓ in September. What I would love is, of course, to win the division. ⁓ you know, for for two reasons. Number one, I'm assuming that the Phillies and Braves are gonna beat up on each other enough that the Dodgers are gonna slide into that two spot either way. If the Phillies manage to win the division, they will have to play as the three-seed a wild card series. But it'll be against whoever comes in sixth, whether at San Diego or Arizona or some other team that gets hot. I think the Phillies have a distinct advantage over either of those any of those teams. Then in the second round, you would face the Dodgers. And I know maybe this sounds crazy. I would much rather and I said this last week on the podcast, and I believe it even more this week, I would much rather face the Dodgers in a five game series than the Brewers right now. The Dodgers are leaking oil and they could get hot. This could all change, but I would much rather face them. The team that I am most afraid of in the entire playoffs is the Brewers. And then the second team I'm most afraid of might be the Cubs. and to be able to I mean, for completely different reasons, the Brewers are so top heavy with the pitching. I don't want to face Mizarowski and Henderson three times in a five game series. And the Cubs, I actually think, are probably the weakest rotation. But just that offense is capable of so much. And ⁓ they both have guys who are just special right now in in Miz and PCA. And I would rather avoid them if I can. That is my hope for the last ⁓ you know, the remainder of the season. Win the East, get that three seed, and avoid the Brewers, ⁓ and the Cubs, frankly, for as long as possible. speaker-1: So I I hate to break it to you, or maybe this is good news, but you actually will see Sale versus Sanchez on Friday. The Braves swapped home to Sale. Just for the purposes of of of ⁓ showing off their best for you guys. I'll take it. But a great matchup to start that big series. ⁓ and then I'll be there on Monday, ⁓ getting to see Elder versus Lozardo. Not as marquee of a matchup, but still one. ⁓ hopefully we're going for a series win in that game. but I agree with you guys. I think going for the division, getting that home wildcard series as the three seed against either of the options for the ⁓ six seed, I think I would prefer overfacing the Cubs, ⁓ especially at Wrigley if if we fall into the five slot, ⁓ which we are currently today because of the tiebreaker. ⁓ I I do not have a great feeling about going into Wrigley. Wrigley's a tough place to play in playoff time. ⁓ but if we're the f if we're the four seed, I feel a lot differently about that. ⁓ I I I'd think I'd rather face the Cubs in in a short series ⁓ where we have the starting pitching advantage. ⁓ but I I'd for the same reasons as we mentioned last week, facing the the Dodgers in a sh in a ⁓ an L D S is much more palatable to me than facing them in a seven game series because you have I I do not want to face Miz in a ⁓ twice in a five game series. So I'm I'm fully with you guys on on getting the that path as opposed to facing the brewers in the second speaker-0: Yeah, it's it's most important to me that we have home field in in the first series, whether it is the wild card or the divisional. It's not likely to be home field in the divisional round. ⁓ but in that three game set, my biggest concern, and it it's you know, it might be a little nitpicky, but ⁓ Chris Sanchez is a stud at home. On the road he's he can be a very different pitcher, and I I just don't want to drop that first game in a three game set. That that's just like nightmare scenario. All of the bad vibes will flood in if they lose that first game of a three game set. ⁓ they might not feel it from the home fan base because they'll be on the road in this scenario, but ⁓ everyone will suddenly start to panic that we're looking at the same thing that we've seen the past four years and that we're we were sold a bill of goods, given false hope yet again. ⁓ it'll go sour fast. And that's just being honest about you know who we are as a fan base. So home home field advantage is priority number one. It would be gravy to win the division. ⁓ but I do want to make sure that we're sitting ⁓ north of the Cubs and whoever that sixth seed is when all is said and done. ⁓ Luzardo is one who's been mentioned as ⁓ Kind of the inverse of the Sanchez situation. He's great on the road. ⁓ the the splits are really impressive, especially this year. ⁓ just something to keep in mind. You know, I I I want to kind of segue into a discussion of the starting rotation real quick, namely because of the latest developments with Zach Wheeler. ⁓ but I don't want to be married to any one, two, three ⁓ use of any of those three guys right now. I I I want to play to win the series. I don't want to be in some sort of this is our guy who's our top starter. That's what we do. That's a very Rob Thompson way to do things, and I that's not how I want to approach this postseason. I don't know that Donnie Baseball has it in them to shake things up like that. ⁓ but I just want to get ahead of it right now and say that I that I said it out loud. ⁓ let's get in just real quick, ⁓ not too quickly. I really want to talk about Zach Wheeler. ⁓ because you guys were very, very concerned last episode and rightfully so. ⁓ his ERA north of eight ⁓ in his starts, I believe since the All Star break. ⁓ just the type of performances that you never would expect to see from Zach Wheeler if he is healthy. ⁓ you know, ⁓ a a fastball that he can't control. ⁓ just mechanic nightmares. ⁓ walking guys, just just never being able to have that shutdown inning in a lot of those outings. What ⁓ Matt Gelb, who we've referenced on this podcast before, I think is ⁓ the best ⁓ Phillies reporter out there, tends to get the inside scoop and in depth more than anyone, ⁓ had a great article ⁓ a day or two ago after Wheeler's recent start, in which we ⁓ we did win five two against the Angels, ⁓ where he had a biomechanic expert That was sort of his ⁓ go to guy, employed by the Phillies until this season. And he went to ⁓ a team in Japan at the beginning of this year. ⁓ I'm not gonna harp too much on it, but it it feels like the old Phillies ⁓ method of being a little cheap on the margins like that, and letting a guy go to Japan rather than staying here with one of your top payrolls in the league in a closing championship window. But neither here nor there. However, he left. ⁓ he did come back. after ⁓ maybe during the Seattle series and discovered ⁓ a ⁓ an important ⁓ hitch in in Wheeler's delivery and his setup. It had all that I'm not gonna understand the science or try to convey it to any of you, but ⁓ the bottom line was that he was holding his his glove hand ⁓ a couple inches too low all year and it got progressively lower as the season went on. And it was affecting his weight transfer. It was affecting ⁓ you know, where he fell on the mound, he was falling towards third base as as opposed to to home. And at this level, and a guy that is that technically ⁓ advanced like Zach Wheeler, he he is very much a pitcher, not a thrower. ⁓ that will make all the difference in the world. That will cause control problems that will blow up an entire game. ⁓ but he got in touch with that guy again. He has him for the rest of the year. Says that at the beginning of that fourth inning against the Angels on Sunday that he he found it. He f he found his his right slot. ⁓ and the performance kinda follows that logic if if we're to believe. So I am over the moon that an injury hasn't popped up in this story. Because that's what I was expecting this whole time. What what are they hiding? What's he hiding? It's gonna get to a point where he has to come forward with soreness or or dead arm or whatever else it is. To have a concrete reason that is fixable is the best news I've gotten from the Phillies all year. ⁓ and I now feel, you know, that he is gonna be okay. He might have some bumps as he figures this mechanical issue out over the next couple starts, but I I'm gonna trust that Wheeler is our number one guy again, or our our one B ace with Sanchez. ⁓ how do you guys feel with that information? And are you as worried about Wheeler as you were last week? I can't imagine you are. speaker-2: No, I mean, obviously. Like to see him come out and and you know, again, I was I was there and in that first inning I was just like, Well, I mean, yeah, this is this is it, man. ⁓ he's shot. I even said to I went to a couple friends who are ⁓ comedians out here who grew up in Orange County. Die Hard Angels fans. Feel so bad for them. but they're not like really in depth baseball people, and I explained, I'm like, Yeah, this guy, he was our ace and then He had to get thoracic outlet syndrome and he came back and he was like dominant and like it looked like he might win a Cy Young or compete for one and now he's just shot. Like I would nobody knows what happened, and he's just shot. I said this after he loaded the bases with nobody out. And then he got a ground ball double play, he got a strikeout, and I thought, okay, if he could continue this high wire act and get through five innings with three runs, that should be great and then he was just dominant. All of a sudden he went back out and he was just Zach Wheeler. And it was really bizarre and weird. And I chalked it up to the Angels lineup being terrible, which I'm sure is at least partially true, but then I read the article. And you know, I mean, this wouldn't be the first time a pitcher has had a very minor mechanical thing that leads to major results on the field. It's amazing how, you know, important. ⁓ replicating every step of the delivery is for some guys the entire time. And you would think like moving the glove a couple of inches, who cares? But obviously, it made a big difference. Now, do I think he's gonna go out and dominate everybody? No. I'm curious to see how he does against the Braves. I think that'll be a better litmus test. But you hit the nail on the head. The fact that there's no injury is like the big win coming away from this. It's not the results on the field. It's not the six solid innings. It is the fact that He was being honest the entire time when he said there's no physical issue. I I don't know if I said this on the pod last week, but I didn't believe him. I mean his velocity never went down, but I'm like, there's gotta be a physical issue. You don't go from being Zach fucking Wheeler to being Zack Wheeler without there being an issue. And yet that is what happened. It was this thing, don't ever let this man leave to Japan ever again. Give him whatever he wants. And ⁓ ask him to take a look at ⁓ at some other pitchers, you know, while while he's at it. But ⁓ no. Big I big relief to see him throw that way. speaker-1: Hundred percent. It's it's it's so ⁓ great to see that it's truly a mechanical tweak that seems to have solved this and at least in Wheeler's mind for progress has been made. ⁓ the month of August, Wheeler walked eighteen batters. No month as a Philly has come even close to that. The next closest in terms of most amount of walks in a month is twelve for him. ⁓ and and typically most months are are in the single digits. I mean it's it's just so bizarre of what we saw because even in the ⁓ July of twenty six, his walk rate was very, very low. and his and his strikeout to walk ratio was one of his highest in his career as affiliate. So it's just something progressively as the season go went on, as you mentioned, got to the point in August where it started to just pile on and pile on and pile on and and little by little it got to this point where the tweak turned into something that was pretty significant. So ⁓ great to see ⁓ my my my red flag buzzer is officially back in my back pocket. I do not need to take it out for Zack Wheeler, hopefully for the rest of the season. speaker-0: Yeah, I'm with you guys there. Obviously. I I am really I'm fired up about this Braves series coming up no matter what, but ⁓ I'm really fired up to see him prime time Saturday night against the Braves. ⁓ Zach Wheeler. I f I don't know who he's facing. I think it might be Tyler Molly. ⁓ but that's gonna be we'll we'll see if ⁓ He's got Perez. Perez. Okay. ⁓ I just have a feeling he's gonna speaker-1: On Saturday. speaker-0: be out there like it's the postseason. ⁓ I think he's gonna have worked on this mechanical issue till he he can't throw anymore ⁓ this week and I think he will ⁓ he will come out like it's it's game one of the World Series. ⁓ that's what I'm expecting and I'm excited for that. Excited to recap that game next week. Moving on. ⁓ the bullpen is still something to question. ⁓ like you said, Pat, Alvarado even gave us some okay innings the past week or so. ⁓ but I I feel like we're starting to see Mattingley's sort of approach, what what his game plan will be with these guys. I have a couple questions as to what he is thinking. ⁓ the one big bright spot I'd say that was surprising was Alex McFarlane. I think he's only thrown a total of like ten innings so far this year, but the guy can throw a hundred and two. The guy has been put in big spots, ⁓ including last night, ⁓ in a really close game. He needed to get outs. The ⁓ I think the rap on him has been can he control his pitches? Can he ⁓ you know not give free passes at at the back end of the bullpen? There's nothing that frustrates you more. But he definitely seems like talking about Donnie baseball, I feel like he is truly giving him a chance to show, are you are you that guy? Are you are you the seventh inning guy? Are you an alternate eighth inning guy when when bowling ⁓ you know has gotten a little too much work? ⁓ I'm not seeing him try out Rayleigh like I thought he would so far. And that that's a concern because I thought he was sort of would have the inside track on that. ⁓ what are your guys' thoughts about the bullpen, how he's managed it, what you expect to shake out in terms of you know, by the time you get to the postseason, you kinda know who's going to be used in what sequence as the bridge from the starter to Durant. And I'm not sure we have a clear picture of that just yet. speaker-1: I don't think we do either, but ⁓ if and if last night was a sign of ⁓ how he might be deployed in terms of McFarlane, ⁓ he's kind of that swing guy, that that that flexible put him in, plug him in whichever inning he's needed the most. I mean he came into a situation where it was two on and nobody out in the fifth inning or in the sixth inning, and went one, two, three, got ⁓ new bar Arenado and then Tawa to with no damage. I mean he He has come into key spots and outside of the ⁓ home run that he led up in the St. Louis game in St. Louis, ⁓ he's really excelled. ⁓ he's let up one earned run, that one home run in St. Louis that I mentioned, and has a K to nine ratio of almost ⁓ almost nine. And but his walks have been under control. His whip's under one, he's he's getting big outs, and I think Mattingly is starting to trust him in key situations to the point where he could be somebody that they deploy in a key spot in October. speaker-2: Yeah, I mean he's got the stuff for it. There's no doubt. the thing you're always concerned about is the experience piece, but I think sometimes that's overblown. Sometimes you need a a young kid who just throws gas and isn't afraid to fail in the postseason and has great stuff. Other times that's a concern. I remember being in the stands in Arizona in twenty twenty three and watching Orion Kirkering and just being filled with dread. Right? ⁓ and then you get other cases like when the Angels had Francisco Rodriguez come up, make his major league debut on like September second and getting the most important outs in October. Because he was just filthy and he wasn't afraid to fail. So I think the next month is gonna tell us a lot. I I hate to sit here and be like, Well, I don't know what I would do yet, but the fact is there's twenty-four more games and they're gonna be pressure packed, and we're gonna learn a lot about these guys. I would like to see over those next twenty-four games Rayleigh in more high leverage spots for more than just a a batter. It's pretty crazy. I think he's only his last three outings have resulted in one inning pitch, which is almost impossible with the you have to face three batters minimum rule. But it seems like Alvarado is still ahead of him on the left left-handed depth chart, which I don't get at all. The thing that I am most curious about is number one, who steps up and who Wilts under the pressure over the next month. And number two, which of the five starters gets converted to a meaningful piece in the bullpen in October? Because here's the thing Painter has the stuff to be a secret weapon in the bullpen, but a first inning ERA of a thousand or whatever it is really concerns me. Because you only get one inning out of that role and it needs to be locked down. Somebody one of you guys brought up maybe a month ago an idea that I thought was ridiculous at the time and now I'm like and again, we'll give it a month, see where we're at, but the idea of potentially utilizing Jesus Lazardo as a super bullpen weapon ⁓ is becoming increasingly ⁓ you know I it looks good to me. It looks good. And maybe it's a situation where, hey, if you're in a three game set, you go, listen, we're going with Sanchez game one, Wheeler game two, and you send Lozardo down to the bullpen and you're like, We'll see how it plays out. And if you don't end up needing to use him, great, he's starting game three. You have to be flexible in the playoffs, you have to be willing to do stuff like that. But man, I don't know. I don't think Nola is that guy, so I think it's gotta be Painter or Lozardo. I think Painter's stuff lends more to it, but that first inning ERA really concerns me. speaker-0: I love that you brought that up. ⁓ I was the one who had had brought that Luzardo idea up. ⁓ I still like it. I still like it of the guys we're mentioning, you know, who who I would see in that iteration as ⁓ you know, just coming in hot ⁓ from the bullpen. Noel is not that guy, Painter's obviously not that guy at at at this point. ⁓ and you're not gonna do that with Wheeler or Sanchez. So it would have to be Luzardo if we had to take that kind of a An approach. If there is any sort of telegraphing of whether the Phillies are considering anything like that, I just want to call into ⁓ to your attention. The expanded roster comes into play. This is September 1st, so we get two extra add-ons to the roster. And we brought up Rafael Marchand, which is fine. depth at Catcher is fine in September. You want to give guys some rest. It also allows us, I think. To use Garrett Stubbs as a pinch runner, ⁓ which I love. I actually think he's a he's a weapon there. We we surprisingly have a lot of options for late game speed ⁓ that I don't think we've had on this team in in quite some time between Derek Hill and ⁓ and Stubbs and and a few other guys. ⁓ but the other option that they went with for the expanded roster, the 28th guy, I thought was gonna be maybe Alan Ron Hell. I thought we would see. that sort of fifth starter guy so that they'd have a chance to, if they wanted, tinker with, you know, ⁓ some of our current starters coming out of the pen, if they wanted to be in that place to experiment. They brought up a guy named Grant Holman, ⁓ right hander out of Triple A. We picked him up from the Tigers a couple months ago, just a a not noteworthy deal, but he's not a starter. ⁓ apparently he's got some good numbers, ⁓ or has Has shown good stuff with the Iron Pigs, but that sort of rules out that ⁓ that notion at at the moment. ⁓ I think they really are looking at all five starters as viable options in the postseason. And if we're really talking about what we want out of this team, I am way happier being confident that we have five true starters, all of whom can start in the playoffs, than Any of this other nonsense about making one of them a bullpen guy. I'd much rather be in this headspace than than anything that I was in ⁓ a month or so ago with the rotation. speaker-2: But you're not gonna use five starters in the playoffs. speaker-0: You pick the hot hand when you get the Yeah. speaker-2: you're you're you're not going to. So the question still becomes because you c I mean you could leave one of them off the postseason roster rather than use them as a bullpen piece, but I don't think our bullpen is good enough that I would ⁓ really want to do that. I think I would want to include them, even if they're just on the roster as like an emergency starter. Maybe if a guy falls apart in the second inning you go to speaker-0: Nola Wappen? That's what you do. I mean, we had Taiwan Walker on the postseason roster for two seasons. Ne never never threw him out there, but that was the idea. speaker-1: Yeah, you need a you need a guy that can ⁓ soak up some innings if there is a situation where the starter just doesn't make it out of the second inning or maybe the game goes to extra innings. You need somebody who can soak that up so you don't kill your bullpen, especially in a three-game set that's back to back-to-back days. ⁓ you don't want to tax your your your regular bullpen guys too much in a in a blowout situation or an extra extended extra inning game. ⁓ ⁓ I do think Painter's gonna be that guy who they who they use with the the the long ⁓ man mindset. ⁓ maybe they deploy him in ⁓ you know, a short burst if if ⁓ if needed. But I think it's gonna be a combo of our our big three. NOLA would end up starting a game in the DS, whether that's game one or game four depends on ⁓ how how the the wild card series goes in terms of length. But I I just don't see them using ⁓ Nola in that kinda like long man role because he's he's just historically been a starter and I just don't know if if they feel like they can convert him to a a reliever type. speaker-0: Yeah, current state of affairs, it it's gotta be Painter's the odd man out. I you've got Aaron Nola actually performing at at a a a number three or four starter level on a good team. I mean that that's what you always hope for. And he does have postseason experience. Whether you value that in him or not, ⁓ he's been there before. And Andrew Painter is a rookie. Andrew Painter is a guy who has shown that he's shakiest in the first inning. Not the risk you want to take going into the postseason. That's not ⁓ d I just don't see that. speaker-2: For sure. For sure. No, I I I agree with both of you guys. Like Nola has to be the guy. and I have a lot more confidence in him now than I did at this time last year, when he was going in and he was the number four starter. which they started him over they did a weird piggyback thing where like he pitched the first two and then Ranger came in for the you know, the next I think five. ⁓ obviously you don't have that luxury this year, it would have to be a true start from Nola. And he's looked good. Last seven starts, E R A of two and No, I don't. I'm good. I'm good. I I I'm I'm willing to and I've I've ⁓ said a lot of disparaging things about Aaron Nola on this podcast, and I reserve the right to do so again in the future should he deserve those kind of comments, but right now he does not. Last seven starts, ERA of two and a half, more than one strikeout per inning, three to one strikeout to walk ratio. The walks are a little bit high for Nola, but like I I this is the best version of Nola I've seen in a couple of years and the one I'm most confident in. And yeah, I mean I think you just ride with those big four in whatever order and y I guess you put painter in the bullpen just as depth. And ⁓ yeah, I I guess that's we're all in agreement, right? That's where we gotta be at. speaker-1: And and Rob Thompson took a lot of heat for starting Nola in game three, ⁓ in LA. I mean, before the game everybody was really on him for not just going straight to Ranger Suarez. And it turned out obviously it turned out to be a a fantastic decision, worked out almost as perfectly as you could have asked for. But do you think Mattingley would go out on a limb in any series in in that type of way? Or do you think he'll just go with chalk with one, two, three of some s in some order of Lazardo, Wheeler, and Sanchez? speaker-2: I think he's gonna go chalk because it's the right decision in this case. I don't think he would be afraid to do it. I've been impressed with like how Mattingly is kinda willing to think outside of the box and you know, it's maybe not so much in the rotation, but the way he's utilized like his bench and everything like that. Like, I I think he's actually pretty ⁓ open to trying different things. ⁓ but I think in this case the Occam's razor, the simplest solution is the correct one, and I think that's what it'll probably go with. speaker-0: Yeah, and Mattily has overall so far, ⁓ obviously the results have been there ⁓ record-wise. He hasn't done anything particularly impressive to me, creative thinking wise. And with a roster built this way, he shouldn't have to that much. ⁓ I mean, like I said, guys are performing the way they were supposed to all along. ⁓ a couple things he did this past week that I actually was you know found notable. one, the way that he stocked up Edmundo Sosa on that Friday night game. He he wanted to have that extra right handed bat ⁓ and dialed him up exactly on cue. ⁓ and obviously it paid off big time. But that was forethought. That wasn't I don't think you would see Rob Thompson do that. I think he would stack every right hander he could in in that game from the get go. ⁓ and then the way he was willing to use Duran for ⁓ two ⁓ two innings ⁓ a couple games ago That's not something Thompson I don't think ever would have done at this juncture in the season either. And it didn't seem to be necessary in terms of who the who the arms that they had available, but it felt like a let's see if we have this. Let let's see if Duran, you know, i is capable of being that guy if we need him a month from now. It's the type of longer range thinking that is severely lacking in all of baseball these days. And ⁓ I I just To me it was a l nice little test scenario that you do in game, ⁓ at risk of maybe losing a a a lower stakes game in the process. But yeah, ⁓ a couple of things that jumped out to me that were definitely Don Mattingley's decisions that he deserved credit for. ⁓ we are at our fiftieth minute. I ⁓ I usually like to reserve the last ten minutes for just ⁓ just just some fun baseball stuff. So Pat, you said you've been to a couple different stadiums in August and I love hearing about other stadiums, other scenes, ⁓ especially as a Philz fan, ⁓ going to Phillies games elsewhere. ⁓ give me a quick rundown of what you what you saw in the past couple weeks. speaker-2: I mean it was ⁓ it's a lot of fun. I was in Chicago just for forty eight hours and I managed to hit ⁓ both ballparks there. I went to Cubs White Sox at Wrigley, which was ⁓ just a a great atmosphere. Both games I went to the home team did nothing. The Cubs got two hit shutout at home and then the White Sox got one hit shutout the next day. ⁓ and ⁓ you know, the the home crowd for the White Sox was sparse. It was like a Thursday afternoon, like rain out makeup game. So I but I the White Sox fans in sh ⁓ at Wrigley were great. That was a great atmosphere. I just love going to a different ballpark. Even the White Sox ballpark that is really like not noteworthy in any way. ⁓ It's just fun. It's just fun to check out. And ⁓ the good thing about the White Sox and the Angels is those tickets were so cheap and you just get to sit close and ⁓ I advise anyone out there. If you're in another city and you're like, I need to kill some time and there's a ball game, it doesn't matter if the Phillies are playing or not. Like, make it a point to get to the ballpark. They it's one of the only it's really is the only sport that I've seen where the ballparks themselves have character and it's worth checking them off and trying to hit them all. I've been to a bunch of NBA arenas. They're all the same. Yeah. ⁓ But baseball stadiums, you know, you gotta you gotta try to hit as many as you can and it doesn't even matter who's playing, it's a fun experience. I did wanna touch on real quick because this falls into the category of fun. The br I've never been so sure that someone was about to do something dumb as I was the moment before Bryce Harper tried to steal home on Saturday night. I I turned to our friend Aaron Herzog, ⁓ former specific John softball star. Shout out Aaron, and I turned to him and I said, Harper's gonna try to steal home. I could see it in his eyes. Which is noteworthy because we were sitting on the third base side. He was he had his back to us. And I still said I could see it in his eyes. He's gonna try to steal home. Because you saw what happened. He w first, if you remember, they had first and second, either nobody out or one out. He was on first, he was the trail runner, Trey was on second. They were gonna try a double steal, but they had the timing off. And I was watching Bryce try to jump and watch Trey and like doing this thing. And next thing you know, Trey goes and like he gets picked off. So now Bryce is on first base alone with two outs. There's a wild pitch. He goes first to third on a wild pitch. And when I saw him run as hard as he was running from first to third, I knew he felt like he fucked up the double steal and he had to make up for it. He gets to third, and I'm telling you, this is what was going to happen. was an 0-1 count on Bohm. I watched him watch the catcher throw the ball back to the pitcher. And I turned to Aaron. I was like, he's gonna try to steal home. Here's what's gonna happen. Whether this pitch is a ball or a strike, he is going to, as soon as the catcher lobs it back because the third baseman was back, as soon as the catcher throws it back, he's gonna take off. Well boom fouled the pitch off. So now it's 0 2 and you know it's a dead ball. So now he doesn't have that opportunity. So I thought now in in his mind he's gonna be like, ⁓ I gotta wait and hope that the next pitch is not strike three. He didn't wait. He was like, Plan B because Aaron even said to me, I was like, he's gonna try to steal home, and Aaron was like, the pitcher is staring right at him. It's a righty out of the stretch. And I was like, I don't care. He's gonna try to steal home. And then he did it. He was out by ten feet, but still somehow should have been safe because the catcher never attempted to tag him. speaker-0: It was still close to being reviewable. ⁓ th they were they were talking about ⁓ Well, they reviewed it in the in the dugout, you could tell. speaker-1: He it was called safe on the field and then they reviewed it and overturned it. speaker-2: And by the way, he should have that that call should have stood because right before when Trey got picked off at third, he was called out, and then there was not, in my view, sufficient evidence to overturn that one. ⁓ or there was sufficient evidence. He should have been safe, but they said the call stands, which means there wasn't sufficient if they didn't have sufficient if they had sufficient evidence on Trey, they should have had it on Bryce, or if they didn't, they shouldn't have. There's no way the Phillies should have lost both of those challenges. Whatever. They ended up winning the game, it doesn't matter. Bottom line is Bryce had an aura about him where he was like, I am going to do the craziest shit you've ever seen and it was so funny to watch it fail so epically and still somehow almost work. ⁓ shout out to Bryce Harper, the man's a maniac. I love it for better or worse. Just don't do that in the playoffs. speaker-0: I I do think well first of all I I heard a a a stat after that game that we were the first team since nineteen ninety two to be caught stealing third and home in the same inning. Love that one. speaker-2: Yeah. speaker-0: I I will just say I feel like the the the base running has left a lot to be desired, ⁓ especially in this past week. ⁓ just nightmare scenarios. ⁓ Schwarber in the most recent game, just not taking a secondary lead and then running on contact to to the to to try to score, just a a bad way to approach that. ⁓ stuff you should not be making, mistakes you should you should not be making at this level. ⁓ But I it crossed my mind that this is sort of a function of the juice that the Phillies have. ⁓ they're not a fundamentally sound team. They they they are streaky. They they are showing some fundamentals in terms of their plate approach that's different. But they are a team that you can just feel the vibes. And guys trying to grab extra bases for the hell of it, for the fun of it, like you saw in Bryce Harper's eyes, I think is collateral. for the just the way things are with the Phillies right now. And we're just gonna have to accept it. God help us if it happens in October like that. but it's just a a a feeling I've gotten I've been able to forgive some of these base running errors just as a guy's just trying to get out there and and just run as hard as he can. Brand Brandon Marsh is a caveman. Why wouldn't he stretch that double no triple? speaker-2: ⁓ Imagine imagine us back in April being like the thing that's gonna carry this team through September is the vibes. Like what a blessing that we're here and that vibes even exist in the first place. If the collateral damages a couple of caught stealings, I am willing to, you know, live with that. speaker-0: Amen. Amen. speaker-1: You guys mentioned Aura ⁓ with Harper. I wanna bring up somebody who ⁓ not only hasn't been caught stealing at home or ⁓ thrown out at third on the base pass in in recent ⁓ games, he hasn't been caught stealing at all this year. Bryson Stott ⁓ and I'm gonna turn this into a potentially weekly segment. How can I ⁓ convince you that Bryson Stott and Barry Bonds are worth bringing up in the same sentence? ⁓ This week's episode, ⁓ the stat comes from baseball reference, where Bryson Stott is ⁓ officially ⁓ with the home run last night, as you mentioned earlier in ⁓ the podcast, it was the longest of his career, six ⁓ four hundred and sixty-four feet. He is now the ⁓ thirteenth player in baseball history to have both ten home runs and ten stolen bases in each of his first five career seasons. Barry Bonds Is one or the other thirteen. speaker-0: Mike, that took that took effort. ⁓ I I'm impressed. ⁓ you basically did a a a split at first base there, ⁓ to get the out. That that's how that's how impressed. speaker-1: I definitely wasn't caught stealing, that's for true. speaker-0: Love it. Well, ⁓ speaking of vibes, I hope that we can continue that next week. A lot of big games coming up. I think it's about time that we wrap up this episode. The Philz about to throw their first pitch at 940 against the Diamondbacks, so perfect time for us to go. ⁓ guys, thanks so much. Again, I'm Carl Bakuti, got Mike Sambuco, Pat Barker. Be sure to like, share, and subscribe to Specific Johns Podcast, part of Barker Ball Media. Till next time, go Phils. speaker-1: Phil's