Latest / Earn Your Leisure / Advance Placement: October Stock Market Predictions: What to Expect!

Transcript

Advance Placement: October Stock Market Predictions: What to Expect! · Earn Your Leisure

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy nom the United States
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: are here illegally, your next you will be fined nearly
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported. You will
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: never return. But if you register using our CBP home
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: border and families will be protected.
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security.
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: The month of September was one of the roughest in
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: recent years. Do you believe the fourth quarter will be
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: better for the market.
• 1:08
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 1:08
  Speaker 5: Historically, whenever we've had bad Decembers, we normally have positive
• 1:12
  Speaker 5: returns for the fourth quarter. Also, to September is really
• 1:15
  Speaker 5: important because of the fiscal year climate. So I think
• 1:18
  Speaker 5: we'll start to see a lot more buying in October.
• 1:20
  Speaker 5: I think we'll be fine, especially like amongst the Magnificent seven,
• 1:24
  Speaker 5: we'll be fine. A lot of stocks came down to
• 1:26
  Speaker 5: lows where relatively I would like them, Like if Apple
• 1:30
  Speaker 5: got to one sixty two, I would want to buy
• 1:32
  Speaker 5: in there. It's currently a one seventy three, and it
• 1:35
  Speaker 5: hit a high in July of one ninety eight. So
• 1:38
  Speaker 5: every time we have a September we average between two
• 1:41
  Speaker 5: to seven percent for the fourth quarter. So unless this
• 1:45
  Speaker 5: ua W strike remains, I'm still interested to see when
• 1:50
  Speaker 5: people have to start paying back loans on a student
• 1:52
  Speaker 5: loan side, how much of an impact that will have.
• 1:55
  Speaker 5: The government shut down will have that big of an impact.
• 1:57
  Speaker 5: But the biggest thing is if the Fed will keep rates.
• 2:01
  Speaker 5: If they announced they won't raise rates for the rest
• 2:03
  Speaker 5: of the year, definitively, I think that that will ease
• 2:06
  Speaker 5: a little bit of the pressure, and then the stock
• 2:08
  Speaker 5: market will be hey, okay going into the fourth quarter.
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 2:13
  Speaker 6: Historically, when people ask why, I always look at what
• 2:17
  Speaker 6: is history tellers, and historically the fourth quarter has been
• 2:20
  Speaker 6: the money quarter, the trading right, So if we look
• 2:22
  Speaker 6: at over the past forty to fifty years, the NASTACK
• 2:28
  Speaker 6: on average that the best month to trading has been well,
• 2:32
  Speaker 6: January is the best month with the average growth of
• 2:35
  Speaker 6: two and a half percent. November is the second with
• 2:38
  Speaker 6: one point eight percent growth, and December is third with
• 2:41
  Speaker 6: one point seven that's the NASSAT. So I mean, you
• 2:44
  Speaker 6: would think, all right, that makes sense, But let's look
• 2:46
  Speaker 6: at other indexes. So the sm P, I'm going off
• 2:50
  Speaker 6: my almanac when I'm talking about history. For the s
• 2:53
  Speaker 6: and P, the number one month to invest in is
• 2:56
  Speaker 6: November with an average return of one point seven So
• 2:58
  Speaker 6: that's a broader look inside the market over five hundred companies.
• 3:02
  Speaker 4: Second is April and third is December.
• 3:04
  Speaker 6: So you got two months inside of the fourth quarter
• 3:06
  Speaker 6: for both the SMP and the NASTAK, and then the
• 3:08
  Speaker 6: dal Jones the best month to trade in April. Second
• 3:11
  Speaker 6: is November with the average return of one point seven percent.
• 3:15
  Speaker 6: December is third with one point six And so across
• 3:18
  Speaker 6: the Dow, the SMP and the NASTAC, two of the
• 3:22
  Speaker 6: three months inside of the quarter are the best on
• 3:24
  Speaker 6: record to trade in.
• 3:26
  Speaker 4: So la fourth quarter be better?
• 3:29
  Speaker 6: Yeah, because we're right now and October kind of ends
• 3:32
  Speaker 6: it that that historical worst six months months to trade
• 3:36
  Speaker 6: in September being the worst. October been kind of shaky
• 3:39
  Speaker 6: over the past ten or fifteen years. But we're headed
• 3:42
  Speaker 6: toward the best time of the year if you're trading, and.
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: The Christmas rally has been coming a lot earlier this year.
• 3:47
  Speaker 5: Normally toward going into Christmas, stock market usually has a rally.
• 3:51
  Speaker 5: Hedge funds are taking on clients, so the existing clients
• 3:54
  Speaker 5: that you have, you can't really recruit a bunch of
• 3:56
  Speaker 5: new clients if you're dell a bunch of money. So
• 3:59
  Speaker 5: and I say, I think last year when we did
• 4:01
  Speaker 5: Hulu at Madison Square, the first and fourth quarter are
• 4:04
  Speaker 5: the best months to trade.
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: It would be best to sit out the third anyway.
• 4:08
  Speaker 5: And by this time, if you're going to according to
• 4:11
  Speaker 5: your trading plan, you shall only have a few more
• 4:13
  Speaker 5: trades up until November.
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: Anyway, and you should be able to close out the
• 4:16
  Speaker 4: year very strong. So the Bookie.
• 4:19
  Speaker 6: This episode is brought to you by P and C Bank.
• 4:22
  Speaker 6: A lot of people think podcasts about work are boring
• 4:25
  Speaker 6: and sure, they definitely can be, but understanding of professionals
• 4:29
  Speaker 6: routine shows us how they achieve their success, little by little,
• 4:32
  Speaker 6: day after day. It's like banking with P and C Bank.
• 4:36
  Speaker 6: It might seem boring to safe plan and make calculated
• 4:39
  Speaker 6: decisions with your bank, but keeping your money boring is
• 4:42
  Speaker 6: what helps you live or more happily fulfilled life. P
• 4:46
  Speaker 6: and C Bank Brilliantly Boring since eighteen sixty five. Brilliantly
• 4:51
  Speaker 6: Boring since eighteen sixty five is a service mark of
• 4:53
  Speaker 6: the PNC Financial Service Group, Inc. P and C Bank
• 4:57
  Speaker 6: National Association Member FDIC.
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: Earners.
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: What's up?
• 5:03
  Speaker 6: You ever walk into a small business and everything just
• 5:06
  Speaker 6: works like? The checkout is fast, the receipts are digital,
• 5:09
  Speaker 6: tipping is a breeze, and you're out the door before
• 5:12
  Speaker 6: the line even builds Odds are they're using Square? We
• 5:17
  Speaker 6: love supporting businesses that run on Square because it just
• 5:19
  Speaker 6: feels seamless. Whether it's a local coffee shop, a vendor
• 5:23
  Speaker 6: at a pop up market, or even one of our
• 5:25
  Speaker 6: merch partners. Square makes it easy for them to take payments,
• 5:29
  Speaker 6: manage inventory, and run their business with confidence, all from
• 5:33
  Speaker 6: one simple system. If you're a business owner or even
• 5:36
  Speaker 6: just thinking about launching something soon. Square is hands down
• 5:40
  Speaker 6: one of the best tools out there to help you start, run,
• 5:43
  Speaker 6: and grow. It's not just about payments, it's about giving
• 5:46
  Speaker 6: you time back so you can focus on.
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: What matters most ready.
• 5:50
  Speaker 6: To see how Square can transform your business, visit Square
• 5:53
  Speaker 6: dot com backslash go backslash eyl to learn more that
• 5:58
  Speaker 6: Square dot Com backs last go backslash eyl. Don't wait,
• 6:03
  Speaker 6: don't hesitate. Let's Square handle the back end so you
• 6:05
  Speaker 6: can keep pushing your vision forward.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: accused of murdering a Texas. Man of Venezuelan charged with
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy Noman, the United States
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: are here illegally, your next you will be fined nearly
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned and deported, you will
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: never return. But if you register using our CBP home
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Do what's right, leave now. Under President Trump America's laws,
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: border and families will be protected.
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: Sponsored by the United States de Markement of Homeland Security
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: and so like.
• 7:11
  Speaker 5: Trading, the first hour and the last hour is ideal
• 7:13
  Speaker 5: for trading, but on a quarterly cycle trading the first
• 7:16
  Speaker 5: quarter and fourth quarter are ideal, and this is a
• 7:18
  Speaker 5: great time to pick up shares to roll into the
• 7:21
  Speaker 5: next year as well.
• 7:24
  Speaker 4: It's also simple. It's also simple, all seasonal, all history. Yep.
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: Okay, So the VIX rolls fifty in the last ten days.
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: What key levels do we need to know and what
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: do we need to keep our eyes on and better
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: have gains in the marketing? What is the VIX again
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: for people that aren't familiar with the vics.
• 7:46
  Speaker 5: Yeah, the volatility index is a measure of what the
• 7:49
  Speaker 5: volatility is doing in the market or how choppy the
• 7:52
  Speaker 5: market can be. So if the VIX gets down to
• 7:55
  Speaker 5: twelve dollars and forty six cent, chaos is on the way,
• 8:00
  Speaker 5: so the VIX does the opposite up our market. So
• 8:02
  Speaker 5: the lower the VIX gets, its usually a sign that
• 8:06
  Speaker 5: the marketers that are high and about the crash. And
• 8:09
  Speaker 5: if we get to nineteen eighty eight, that means that
• 8:13
  Speaker 5: stocks are going to boom. So if a VIX has
• 8:15
  Speaker 5: a high, there's usually a low end for the stock market,
• 8:19
  Speaker 5: and the stock market is going to go up. And
• 8:20
  Speaker 5: vixes at a low it means stocks are going to
• 8:23
  Speaker 5: come down. So, for example, if you go back to COVID,
• 8:26
  Speaker 5: the vix got to eighty five bucks, every stock on
• 8:29
  Speaker 5: earth was at as low I know, right, And now
• 8:32
  Speaker 5: from twenty twenty through earlier this month we got to
• 8:36
  Speaker 5: a lower fourteen or excuse me, twelve and a half.
• 8:38
  Speaker 4: Have some change.
• 8:39
  Speaker 5: So if you go back to nineteen eighty seven, vixers
• 8:41
  Speaker 5: at one hundred and seventy two dollars and seventy nine cent,
• 8:44
  Speaker 5: it was all hell on earth. Ever since then, the
• 8:47
  Speaker 5: market has never hit that same volatility score again. So
• 8:50
  Speaker 5: when the VIX is high, it is then time to buy.
• 8:53
  Speaker 5: I'm channeling my inner nineteen keys, the keys. You've been
• 8:57
  Speaker 5: in the studio a lot lately to hear what you're
• 9:00
  Speaker 5: working on. So if the vixers that are high and
• 9:03
  Speaker 5: the stock market is time to buy.
• 9:05
  Speaker 6: Right, because that means that the prices are lower than
• 9:08
  Speaker 6: they usually are.
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: So is there a number?
• 9:11
  Speaker 6: Is there a number inside the vix and I remember
• 9:13
  Speaker 6: during during COVID, we were watching that number and we
• 9:15
  Speaker 6: were like, if it gets to that thirty five to
• 9:18
  Speaker 6: forty range, we could traind high. Is there a number
• 9:21
  Speaker 6: that you look at to say, all right, did there's
• 9:23
  Speaker 6: some some cause for alarm?
• 9:26
  Speaker 4: Yeah, thirty four dollars and eighty cent.
• 9:28
  Speaker 5: So if it gets there and we're so far off
• 9:31
  Speaker 5: from that now, and even though every week there isn't
• 9:34
  Speaker 5: like uaw, Hollywood ended the strike, but now musicians are
• 9:40
  Speaker 5: quietly talking about do they need to strike?
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: What you guys do?
• 9:43
  Speaker 5: I mean because if a fan is having to stream
• 9:45
  Speaker 5: your album twenty times a day for you to make
• 9:47
  Speaker 5: twenty five dollars off a fan, that's insane. But the
• 9:50
  Speaker 5: market has remain relatively calm. This is one of the
• 9:53
  Speaker 5: calmest environments. Like September was bloody, but overall the crypto
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: market has been positive. Stock market it has been prop positive.
• 10:01
  Speaker 5: We haven't seen that much volatility. But yeah, if he
• 10:04
  Speaker 5: gets to the thirty four to thirty four eighty spot.
• 10:06
  Speaker 5: That's when I'll have a little bit of concern in trepidation.
• 10:09
  Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean that would be a great correlation if
• 10:11
  Speaker 6: people would look at pull up the VICS and you
• 10:13
  Speaker 6: can type it in as you ticket VIX and just
• 10:15
  Speaker 6: look at what it did for the last month. Even
• 10:17
  Speaker 6: with all the volatility or the pullback in the market,
• 10:21
  Speaker 6: VICS never got above twenty facts, right, So that should
• 10:25
  Speaker 6: tell you this some stability happen here.
• 10:27
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christine Noman, the United States
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: one one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: you are here illegally, your next you will be fine
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: Nearly one thousand dollars a day. Imprisoned and deported, you
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: will never return. But if you register using our CBP
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: home app and leave now, you could be allowed to
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: return legally. Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: America's laws, border and families will be protected.
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security,