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Why can't Saudi Arabia stop the Houthis · INSIGHT TODAY

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  Speaker 1: Why has Saudi Arabia, a rich country with powerful partners,
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  Speaker 1: been unable to stop the Houthis? The Saudi capital, Riyadh,
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  Speaker 1: came under attack by Yemen's Houthi rebels this weekend, days
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  Speaker 1: after the Saudi's partner, the U.S., signaled it will not
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  Speaker 1: intervene on the kingdom's behalf. Black smoke was seen rising
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  Speaker 1: from near Riyadh's main airport on Saturday after an explosion
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  Speaker 1: was heard by residents. Saudi Arabia says it intercepted a
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  Speaker 1: ballistic missile launched by the Houthis at Riyadh and that
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  Speaker 1: a Saudi-led coalition also stopped attacks on Saudi cities, including
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  Speaker 1: the Red Sea port city of Yanbu, where the Houthis
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  Speaker 1: claimed an attack on an Aramco facility. That's the Saudi
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  Speaker 1: National Oil Company. For more on this, I'm talking to
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  Speaker 1: Giorgio Caffiero. He's a Middle East analyst and the CEO
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  Speaker 1: of Gulf State Analytics. a Washington, D.C.-based risk analysis firm. Georgia,
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  Speaker 1: good to see you. The Houthis, they've been attacking Saudi
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  Speaker 1: Arabia now, again, for months, but this is the first
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  Speaker 1: time in a long while that they've taken aim at
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  Speaker 1: the capital, Riyadh. Why are we seeing this happen now?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, great to be with you.
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  Speaker 3: You're absolutely right that for the first time since the
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  Speaker 3: Saudi-Houthi conflict unfroze earlier this year, we've had the Houthis
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  Speaker 3: now attacking the capital city, Riyadh. I think it's very
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  Speaker 3: clear that the Houthis are intent on escalating. They are
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  Speaker 3: demonstrating that they are in control of the escalation. They
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  Speaker 3: are making it very clear to Saudi Arabia that they
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  Speaker 3: do not intend to back down. And as the Ansarallah
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  Speaker 3: movement's likes to frame it. This is about sort of
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  Speaker 3: an attack for an attack. And every single time the
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  Speaker 3: Saudis hit the capital of Yemen, they are intent on responding.
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  Speaker 3: And like I said, I think the Houthis are trying
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  Speaker 3: to make it very clear to Saudi Arabia that there
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  Speaker 3: will not be a military solution that's possible for Riyadh.
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  Speaker 1: It comes just a few days after the U.S. signal
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  Speaker 1: that it's not going to intervene here, that it does
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  Speaker 1: not want to direct conflict with the Houthis. Do you
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  Speaker 1: see a connection between that signal and this attack?
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  Speaker 3: Well, I think the Houthis definitely do not want to
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  Speaker 3: see the United States get involved. Last year, the Trump
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  Speaker 3: administration and the Houthis reached a truce, and I think
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  Speaker 3: the Houthis want to see that stay in place. And
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  Speaker 3: my understanding is that through a meeting that took place
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  Speaker 3: in the U.S. embassy in Muscat, Oman, the Houthis signaled
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  Speaker 3: to the United States that they will not attack American
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  Speaker 3: vessels off of Yemen's west coast. I think that as
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  Speaker 3: the Trump administration sees the Red Sea and western Yemen,
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  Speaker 3: the Bab al-Mandeb really becoming the new western front, if
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  Speaker 3: you will, in the grander U.S.-Iran crisis, the Trump administration
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  Speaker 3: does not want to have the U.S.
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  Speaker 2: Get pulled into this.
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  Speaker 3: And I certainly think the fact that countries in the
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  Speaker 3: West as well as countries in the region are not
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  Speaker 3: really coming to defend Saudi Arabia is certainly something that
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  Speaker 3: emboldens the Houthis.
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  Speaker 1: What are the Saudis' options at this point?
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  Speaker 2: Well, that's a really good question. Let's Note what's obvious.
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  Speaker 3: There are not really any good options for the kingdom
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  Speaker 3: at this point. I think we all remember from 2015
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  Speaker 3: to 2022 when the Saudis were very involved in their
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  Speaker 3: military intervention.
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  Speaker 2: Against the Houthis in Yemen.
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  Speaker 3: That military campaign was an absolute disaster for Riyadh. The
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  Speaker 3: Houthis are very disciplined. For them, war is kind of
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  Speaker 3: a way of life. They have also become more sophisticated
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  Speaker 3: in their tactics now using AI. All of this is
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  Speaker 3: to say I don't think an intensified Saudi military campaign
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  Speaker 3: is going to ultimately deter the Houthis.
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  Speaker 2: I don't think that would end well for Saudi Arabia.
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  Speaker 2: I also do.
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  Speaker 3: I do not see other countries, whether we're talking about
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  Speaker 3: Riyadh's partners in the West or the allies in the
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  Speaker 3: Mecca Defense Pact, coming to Saudi Arabia's defense and getting
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  Speaker 3: involved directly in the fight against the Houthis.
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  Speaker 2: I think as painful as this is.
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  Speaker 3: For many in Saudi Arabia to accept, I think probably
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  Speaker 3: the best option, or maybe a better way of putting that,
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  Speaker 3: the least awful option for Saudi Arabia would be to
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  Speaker 3: take advantage of opportunities to engage Iran and the Houthis
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  Speaker 3: through Omani and other channels and try to work on
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  Speaker 3: creating a new order in the region, not one where
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  Speaker 3: the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran is completely eliminated,
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  Speaker 3: but one where Riyadh and Tehran and other players in
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  Speaker 3: the region are able to control tensions, find established mechanisms
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  Speaker 3: for de-escalation, and to try to get the Saudi-Iranian detente.
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  Speaker 2: Back on track.
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  Speaker 3: I think that will obviously require Saudi Arabia to make
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  Speaker 3: some concessions to the Houthis.
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  Speaker 2: Those will be painful concessions.
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  Speaker 3: But I think at the end of the day, this
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  Speaker 3: is Saudi Arabia's most realistic option for restoring peace and
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  Speaker 3: stability in the kingdom.
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  Speaker 1: But the instability in this region, especially with the Houthis
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  Speaker 1: gaining more control along the Red Sea and the chokehold
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  Speaker 1: at the Bab al-Mandeb Strait that you mentioned, it does
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  Speaker 1: have effects not just on Saudi Arabia, right? The Houthis
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  Speaker 1: have the power now to inflict pain on many countries
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  Speaker 1: if they if they choose to cut off trade at
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  Speaker 1: that chokehold where millions of barrels of oil pass through
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  Speaker 1: every day. So are the Saudis just left alone with
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  Speaker 1: this problem that is actually kind of a global problem
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  Speaker 1: at this point?
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  Speaker 3: Well, you're absolutely right that this is not simply a
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  Speaker 3: bilateral problem between Yemen and Saudi Arabia.
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  Speaker 2: This is certainly a global problem.
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  Speaker 3: I think a way to explain this is the Houthis
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  Speaker 3: have been engaged in blackmail extortion.
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  Speaker 2: We need to call it what it is.
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  Speaker 3: And it's certainly difficult for Saudi Arabia to make concessions
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  Speaker 3: to a very powerful group in Yemen that is engaged practices.
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  Speaker 3: But I do think that ultimately there have to be
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  Speaker 3: certain concessions made to the Houthis in order to restore
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  Speaker 3: stability in this body of water.
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  Speaker 1: Do you see Saudi Arabia really making concessions, though? Will
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  Speaker 1: they not be concerned about saving face after being attacked
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  Speaker 1: by a much less powerful, much poorer group, which is
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  Speaker 1: what the Houthis are compared to Saudi Arabia?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: Well, I certainly agree that Saudi Arabia will have many
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  Speaker 3: concerns about the types of precedents that get set from
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  Speaker 3: making concessions to the Houthis after they engage in these
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  Speaker 3: types of tactics, these warfare tactics against the kingdom. But
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  Speaker 3: at the same time, Saudi Arabia needs Vision 2030 to succeed.
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  Speaker 3: The country has to successfully diversify its economy beyond oil.
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  Speaker 3: This requires bringing in foreign investment. This requires making Saudi
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  Speaker 3: Arabia an attractive country from the standpoint of tourism, entertainment, business.
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  Speaker 3: That's not going to be possible if missiles and drones
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  Speaker 3: from Yemen and elsewhere in the region keep on pounding
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  Speaker 3: sensitive sites in Saudi Arabia. So I think that Saudi
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  Speaker 3: Arabia focused on making Vision 2030 succeed is going.
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  Speaker 2: To have to recalibrate.
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  Speaker 3: And I think ultimately there's going to have to be
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  Speaker 3: a diplomatic solution to this crisis. I do not think
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  Speaker 3: that the Saudis, especially on their own, without support from
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  Speaker 3: the U.S., Europe, or countries in the region such as
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  Speaker 3: Turkey and Pakistan, are going to succeed in deterring the
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  Speaker 3: Houthi rebels. For seven years, they tried to do that,
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  Speaker 3: and they failed. The Houthis are all the more powerful now.
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  Speaker 3: I just don't think that that's a realistic path for
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  Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia at this point.
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  Speaker 1: Giorgio Caffiero from Gulf State Analytics. Thanks so much for
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  Speaker 1: your insights, Giorgio.
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  Speaker 2: Thank you.