Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 80 - 7/22/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 80 - 7/22/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:20
Hello, and welcome to episode 80 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:26
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:29
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:35
Happy Monday, a new week begins. Hope everyone had a fantastic
0:40
weekend. I had a good weekend.
0:41
You know why? Because we extended our UFC
0:44
biting win streak to six straight.
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That's right, we had a big winner over the weekend with
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Miranda Maverick. Miranda Fear the Maverick, one
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of the coolest nicknames I've heard in quite a while.
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But remember that was our data-driven bet.
0:58
We saw Miranda Maverick with a big move -185 all the way to
1:01
-250 but remember, we honed in on Maverick a little bit earlier
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when she was around -220 so we got some good closing line
1:08
value. But we love that line move in
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her favor, in her favor had a big youth advantage.
1:12
And then also kind of the angle there with more offensive
1:16
output, more significant strikes per minute.
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And then also we love the fact that she was the better
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wrestler. If you watch that bout, which it
1:22
was free, it was on ESPN, but she really had a big dominant
1:26
stance there on the on the on the mat and then also fading
1:30
fighters on short notice. That's such a huge thing because
1:33
we talked about how it was supposed to be Cortez who
1:37
originally got moved up to fight Roznam and Junas and Barbosa
1:40
came in late. So anytime there's a fighter
1:42
that comes in late, I always want to bet against those
1:44
fighters because they're basically kind of their their
1:46
body clock and their their planning and their kind of
1:50
routine getting ready gets all messed up and then it gets speed
1:52
up. So those are the the biters that
1:54
I want to bet against. But either way, Maverick getting
1:57
it done for the team. And you know what, You know what
2:00
tells me that we have our finger on the pulse of UFC right now
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guys, is that if you remember on Friday, I said, hey, I didn't
2:05
have the bet MGM data for this, for this match up here, but
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Maverick is checking off all the boxes.
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If you remember, ended up being like almost a global thing with
2:14
all the things being hacked and people, you know, losing all of
2:18
their their access to different online platforms.
2:21
Anyway, Bet MGM's data was down, but then it came back on
2:24
Saturday morning and John Ewing posted and this is how I know
2:27
that we we are really, really on the game here when it comes to
2:31
UFC random Maverick 34% bets, 70% dollars.
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So not only did we pick the right winner there with
2:38
Maverick, but even though we didn't have the data at the
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time, the data approved the sharp bet based on a low bets
2:43
higher dollar bet split. So let's give a round of
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applause to Miranda Maverick for getting it done for the team.
2:50
But anyway, guys, that's the past.
2:51
This is the present. Let's see if we can start off
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our week on a hot note. And it's all about baseball.
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I noticed that obviously WNBA is on break right now, All Star
2:59
game in the Olympics. We're going to wait for UFC to
3:02
come back here on the weekend, which I can't wait for.
3:05
But really, until we get football back, it's going to be
3:07
all baseball, which is fine with me because I love betting Major
3:10
League Baseball. So without further ado, I have a
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four pack of sweats here for you guys on the diamond, including
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some really sharp line moves, couple very short favorites.
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I got a dog here I'm hoping that can bark.
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And then we're also going to fade the worst team on the road
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in Major League Baseball and hope that they get obliterated
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here tonight. If you know what I'm if you know
3:28
what I mean, you know what I mean.
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But anyway, guys, without further ado, let's dive right
3:32
in. Talk about our sweats for today.
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So first on the board, let's go to a match up here in the AL
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Central 6:40 PM Eastern Time. Detroit Tigers taking on the
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Cleveland Guardians. Now going into this one, the
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Tigers are 49 and 51, but they did just take two or three
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against the Blue Jays lost, however, the series finale
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yesterday, five to four as a + 155 road dog.
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Meanwhile, the Guardians 59 and 39, but they just dropped two or
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three against the Padres. They lost 2 to one yesterday as
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a -, 1 O 5 home pick em play. So for tonight's series opener,
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the Tigers are going to go with lefty Tarek Scubble, who's 10
4:08
and three with a 2.41 ER a more on him in a minute.
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He is the favorite to win the Cy Young Award.
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Guardians, meanwhile, are going to go with the ageless wonder,
4:16
the righty veteran Carlos Carrasco, three and seven with a
4:19
5.02 ERA. So we've seen across the market
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here. Well, this game open at several
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shops, basically a pick em minus one O 5.
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Both sides. Some books were kind of a slight
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Detroit -110 or maybe -112 road favorite.
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But regardless of the opener, all movement and liability has
4:36
been on the Tigers baby. Let's go Tigers, Tigers opening
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minus one O 5 -, 110. They're all the way up to -130 I
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jumped on them a little bit earlier today at -125 so I'll
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just check out my Twitter account at Josh under score
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Insights for the sharp reports that are right for vsyn.com.
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Think of that as a little prep for the pod each day.
4:54
But anyway, big move toward Detroit and the fact that,
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again, always remember it, game opens at a pick.
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Maybe the wise guys who set their own numbers have it as a
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pick as well, which means no value either way.
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But probably they're going to have one team with an edge over
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the other. So this tells me that when this
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was around a pick, them wise guys said, hey, we got we like
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Detroit in this one, so let's go Tigers.
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Tigers are taking in 61% of bets, but 81% of dollars.
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That's a pretty good low bets, higher dollars bet split tells
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me that slight public support 61%, but a + 20% smart money
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discrepancy low bets, higher dollars.
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If you always like to see also big steam move, which again told
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us right off the bat that big money like Detroit in this one.
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Some system matches here on the tigers.
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One would be Rd. favorites getting $0.10 of steam or more.
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They're 57 and 35 this year, 62% with a 4% ROI.
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We also have Detroit matching a few other systems.
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One would be, let's see, Rd. favorites in general. 56%
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favorite with steam versus team will miss the postseason, 62%
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favorites off a loss on the road, 57%.
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So we got a lot of matches here with Detroit.
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Also, I like favorite in a low total game correlative betting
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because Detroit is -130 total on this one is 7 and some shops are
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actually 7 1/2 down to seven. So it's always a good sign when
6:11
the Lions moving toward the favorite and toward the under
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that smells like, you know, a 2. Nothing win by the favorite,
6:16
that sort of thing. But good correlative betting
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there on Detroit. Also recent performance.
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Now, the Tigers, you would think, are the bad team and
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Guardians are the good team, which is true based on their win
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loss record right now. But these teams are going in
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opposite directions recently. Detroit's actually playing very
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well. They're seven and three over the
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last 10 games. They're hitting 267.
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The Guardians are three and seven over the last 10 games,
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only hitting $1.89. So maybe this is kind of the
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right time, hopefully, to clip Carrasco and the Cleveland
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Guardians here tonight. I want to bet, bet on school.
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Who? By the way, I wanted to mention
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this. He's the favorite when the
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American League saw young at -130 So if you never had an
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opportunity to sweat a full school ball game, now's your
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chance. Let's hope he pitches a gem.
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I'm going with the sharp line move in the big steam.
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I'm going Detroit Tigers. Shop around.
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I got the Tigers at -130 Keep on cruising.
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Hoping a dog can bark. Let's go to Minnesota.
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Philadelphia Phillies at the Minnesota Twins.
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This is a 7:40 PM Eastern Time. First pitch little background
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here. Phillies 63 and 36 on the year
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did just drop, however, two or three against the Pirates
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avoided the sweep though, with a six nothing win in the series
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finale yesterday, cashing as a -, 115 road favorite.
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Meanwhile, the Twins 54 and 44, they just got swept in the two
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game series against the Brewers. They lost yesterday eight to
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seven as a -, 155 home favorite. So for tonight's interleague
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series opener, Phil's are going with the lefty Ranger Suarez,
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who's 10 and four with a 2.76 ERA.
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Meanwhile, the Twinkies are going with ready Bailey over
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who's eight and five with a 4.14 ERA.
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So what have you seen across the market here?
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Well, this game open Philly around a -, 130 Rd. favorite and
7:58
Philly is all the way down to -115 or -110 So right off the
8:03
bat, this line is going away from the Phillies toward
8:06
Minnesota. Minnesota opened as high as plus
8:08
120. Now they're down to basically
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even money, you know, plus 100. Try to find a plus one O2 if you
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can. I see a -, 1 O five out there.
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So Long story short, we're basically seeing a big sharp
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reverse line move on Minnesota because what's important here is
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that Minnesota is not the popular side.
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It's the other way. Philly is the big popular side.
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The betting public is all over the Phillies getting 78% of
8:31
bets. But if 78% of bets are in
8:33
Philly, why is this line dropping?
8:36
If everyone and their mother was betting Philly at -130 why are
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the odds makers dropping them down to -115 -, 110 and giving
8:43
you, the public an even better number to back Philly?
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Well, if it looks good, it looks fishy.
8:47
It doesn't make sense. You want to be on the fishy
8:49
side. You want to be on the side that
8:50
doesn't make sense. That's one of the things when
8:52
you're betting, you know, it takes you a while to kind of see
8:54
that click. It would always be take the
8:56
obvious side doesn't make sense. Odds makers are stupid.
8:59
It's their mistake. No, they're they're moving the
9:01
market based on respect, the money coming in.
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So the fact that Publix all over Philly, but lines dropping
9:06
toward Minnesota tells me the Twinkies are the smart bet here.
9:10
Minnesota's only getting 22% of bets, but 33% of money.
9:14
Nothing huge, but a little bit low bets, higher dollars with a
9:17
good sharp contrarian bet split. And even though Ranger Suarez
9:20
has been really good this year, remember his numbers overall 10
9:23
and four 2.76 ERA. Hopefully we're facing him at
9:27
the right time because Suarez in two starts in July has a 7.36
9:31
ERA. He's given up nine runs in 11
9:34
innings pitched. Philly lost both those games.
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By the way, did you know the Twins are hitting 277 against
9:40
lefties this year? That's the best average number
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one in baseball against southpaws.
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So hopefully the bats in Minnesota can get to Suarez
9:46
tonight and Bailey over. Can you pitch a good game
9:49
tonight, buddy? He's got an ERA of three and two
9:52
July starts. Not bad.
9:53
Only gave up four runs in 12 innings.
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Twins are four and two in his last six starts, and he has a
9:58
3.29 ERA at home versus 4.67 on the road.
10:02
But Long story short here, guys, everyone's been in Philly, but
10:05
the sign keeps falling toward Minnesota.
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I got to go with the sharp move. Give me the Minnesota Twinkies.
10:10
I got the Twins at plus one O 2. You're now looking at around
10:13
even money, even up to like -1 O 5.
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But try to find as close to even money as you can.
10:18
Plus 100. Let's go Minnesota Twinkies.
10:20
Let's get a dog to bark tonight. Bark Milwaukee Chicago Cubs 8:05
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PM Eastern Time, first pitch. Little background here.
10:30
The Brewers come in 57 and 42 just swept that two game series
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against the aforementioned Twins. 187 yesterday as a + 145
10:38
row dog. You know, the Cubbies 48 and 53
10:42
just dropped two or three against the D Backs did avoid
10:45
the sweep, however, with a 2 to one win in extra innings
10:47
yesterday, cashing as a -, 125 home favorite.
10:51
So pitching match up for tonight, the Brewers are going
10:53
to go with ready Tobias Myers, who's six and three with a 3.13
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ERA. You know, all the Cubbies are
10:59
going to go with ready Javier Assad, who's four and three with
11:02
a 3.27 ERA. What have you seen across the
11:05
market here? Well, all smart money on the
11:08
beer makers. Let's make some beer tonight.
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This game open Milwaukee a very short -110 Rd. favorite and now
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we've seen Milwaukee get steamed up to -120 some shops even
11:18
hinting maybe a little higher toward -125 but opening at a
11:21
very short chalk price. Looks like wise guys said, hey,
11:24
Cubs are struggling a bit here. Milwaukee's a good team.
11:27
My Myers is pitched well. That's a good price to back
11:30
Milwaukee. So they got down hard on the
11:32
Brew Crew and caused that $0.10 team move in their favor -110 up
11:36
to -120 Now Milwaukee is getting around 70% of bets and dollars.
11:41
So basically one way support from pros and Joes combined with
11:45
that $0.10 team move, but a lot of system matches on Milwaukee
11:48
one would be one of my favorite systems, the sweet spot Short
11:52
Rd. favorite O if you're a road favorite of -130 or less.
11:56
Those teams are cashing 1:49 and 1:20 this year, 55% with a 4%
12:01
ROI. Milwaukee, by the way, 34 and 22
12:05
as a favorite this year, 61% win rate, 5% ROI.
12:09
I believe they're the either 5th or 6th best chalk team in
12:11
baseball. But in particular when the
12:13
Brewers are playing a kind of a bad team, a below 500 record
12:17
team, as a favorite, they're 28 and 1565% with an 11% ROI.
12:23
So it tells us that Milwaukee is good when they're favored to
12:26
win, even better when they're playing a bad team in favor to
12:28
win. Also, you'll get the Brewers
12:31
bats. Hopefully their offense comes to
12:33
life. Christian Yelich, I believe, set
12:35
out yesterday, so you should be good to go here for tonight.
12:37
But the Brewers have the better bats, hitting 255 with 482 runs
12:42
scored, Cubs only hitting 233 with 419 runs scored.
12:47
And meanwhile, Tobias Myers, I don't want to jinx him, but this
12:49
guy's been really good. Anytime you say that, you got a
12:52
knock on wood if you hear me doing that now.
12:53
But anyway, Myers, the Milwaukee Brewers are six and two.
12:58
In his last eight starts, he's only given up one run or less.
13:01
And five of his last seven starts, he's got a 2.56 ERA on
13:05
the road versus 3.78 at home. So he's actually been better on
13:08
the road than at home. Meanwhile, Assad's last seven
13:10
starts, Cubs are one and six. But again, we open a very short
13:14
-110 Brewers favorite price. Now the brew cruise up to -120
13:18
I'm going to go with that sharp steam, Give me Milwaukee, Let's
13:21
make some beer tonight at -120 last bite of the night, Let's go
13:26
to Texas, the site of the All Star game, and look at the
13:29
Rangers hosting the moribund, terrible, God awful, good for
13:34
nothing Chicago White Sox. And I hope I didn't jinx them
13:36
when they win tonight because I'm on Texas here.
13:39
Anyway. Guys, what we've seen so far
13:41
from these teams, Chicago, we all know they're terrible, 27
13:44
and 74. They just got swept by Kansas
13:48
City and they've lost, I think seven straight Rangers, 47 and
13:51
52. Not quite the team they were
13:53
last year, but starting to get a little bit hot.
13:56
They did lose two or three against Baltimore, but prior to
14:00
that, prior to the break, that a decent, decent little stretch
14:03
there to end the unofficial first half.
14:05
But anyway, what are we seeing across the market here?
14:08
Well, not a huge move toward Texas.
14:10
You know, a lot of books open around -160 -, 165 some books
14:14
creeping up toward -170 seen one book at -175.
14:19
So it's not like a 10/20 cents theme move.
14:21
But to me, this is a value bet in terms of just betting against
14:24
one of the the worst team in baseball who by the way, is just
14:27
terrible on the road, gets them in a second here.
14:29
But anyway, pitching matchup, Eric Fetty is actually been
14:32
decent. I think he's the reason why
14:34
Texas is, you know -175 -, 170 not -200 or more.
14:38
But Fetty on the year seven and three, 2.99 ERA.
14:43
Michael Lorenzen going for Texas, who didn't he throw the
14:46
no hitter? Was it for Philly last year or
14:49
two years ago? Anyway, five and five, 3.52 ERA.
14:53
So not a huge line move toward Texas.
14:55
But here's my reasoning to back Texas and lay it tonight.
14:57
I got Texas at -170 non division favorite.
15:01
Lack of familiarity benefiting the better team.
15:04
Also, in terms of system matches, fade the White Sox.
15:08
If you had faded the White Sox every game this year, you're 74
15:11
and 2773% win percentage, a 16% ROI.
15:16
But here's where it gets good. The White Sox on the road, 10
15:19
and 4010 and 40. So to me, there's an opportunity
15:23
to bet against the worst team by far on the road this year,
15:27
Texas, meanwhile, 25 and 23 at home.
15:29
So at least they are profitable at home, but also a huge
15:33
discrepancy offensively here. The offense of Texas, 238, 103
15:38
homers, 422 runs scored. The offense of the White Sox,
15:42
two 1986 homers, 316 runs scored.
15:46
Texas has scored over 100 more runs than the White Sox here.
15:51
Also run differential, Texas -2 but if you look at the White Sox
15:55
-191 the worst in baseball. Texas, by the way, 31 and 25 is
16:00
a favorite 55%. And if you look at last 10, this
16:03
is what I was getting at when I was talking about Texas playing
16:06
a little bit better. They're six and four of their
16:08
last 10. They're hitting 226 with a 4.35
16:11
team ERA. The White Sox were one and nine,
16:13
their last ten, hitting only $1.96 with a 5.2 O ERA.
16:18
So a little bit of movement, good system matches.
16:20
I want to fade the White Sox on the road.
16:22
Better bats here. This is serious to me where
16:25
Texas has got to clean up if they want to get back in the
16:27
race in the ALS. So let's see if Texas can
16:29
hopefully get us a winner here. Shop Brown.
16:31
I got the Rangers at -170 so Detroit, Minnesota, Milwaukee
16:37
and Texas, the four pack tonight.
16:39
Can we get three of them? That is the goal, but that about
16:43
does it everybody. Another podcast here in the
16:45
books, Episode 80 of the All Systems Go Pod.
16:48
This is the part of the pod where I asked something of you,
16:51
could you please make my day, do me a huge favor and give this
16:55
podcast a 5 star review. That's right.
16:58
If you're listening on iTunes or Spotify should be an option
17:01
there to rate and review. You want to give it five stars,
17:04
a nice review that really mean a lot to me guys.
17:06
It's the best way to grow this podcast organically.
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You also if you want to recommend it to a friend, that
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would be very great as well. But really that five star
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review, if you haven't done it yet, take two seconds.
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Give it those five stars and really, really make me happy.
17:19
So I very much appreciate you guys listening each day and
17:22
their view really does go a long way.
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Secondly, have you signed up for your free rhythm 7 day free
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Of course, if you enjoy these breakdowns, this approach to
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sports betting, you notice I didn't give you let's play this
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team cuz this guy's great or let's, let's, let's parlay,
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let's double down, triple down. I think I hope, I want No, no,
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no, the market we go based off of the market cuz the market is
19:01
sharp, the market is efficient. And if we can dissect the
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market, locate where the smart money's going and bet against
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the public, that's our whole goal here to be data-driven
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betters. But anyway, if this approach
19:12
appeals to you, no more bias, no more gut instinct, no more
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So that about does it guys, another pot in the books as I
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plays jumping in the stadium swim pool when he cashed a big
20:38
ticket in Vegas. Wherever it may be, you're going
20:40
to walk up to me, you're going to show me a Miranda Maverick.
20:44
Fear the Maverick money line ticket.
20:47
Isn't it great getting UFC winners on the weekend?
20:49
I just I always look forward to it.
20:50
Just give me one UFC bet every Saturday.
20:54
It's just a just a great routine to get into and you love it when
20:57
our data-driven plays come through.
20:58
So show me that Maverick ticket. First one's on me, next one's on
21:02
you. We're going to post about the
21:03
book sweatshop contrarian place all night long.
21:06
So wish you the best luck everyone, enjoy your Monday.
21:09
My parting words, as always, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet
21:12
against the public, place yourself on the side of the
21:15
house. Always be with the smart money,
21:17
never against it. Will smart money win every time?
21:19
Of course not, because as we know, or if you don't know by
21:22
now, you're going to know very quickly.
21:24
Sports betting is hard. It's not easy.
21:26
That's why when you're cashing tickets, you get some
21:28
confidence. When you're losing and things
21:30
aren't going your way. It gives you some perspective
21:32
with the whole goal here guys, is to stick to the data.
21:35
Make bets based on her head and not our heart, against the
21:38
public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays,
21:42
get that closing line value. If we can do that, we're going
21:45
to be successful sports bettors long term.
21:47
So again, guys, enjoy your Monday.
21:49
Be right back at it tomorrow for another big day in the arena.
21:53
It'll be a big Tuesday. Episode 81 of the All Systems Go
21:56
sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
21:59
Have a great night everybody, Good luck.