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AI Can Transform the Economy and Still Be a Bubble · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 1: Zada and Mike Armstrong.
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Speaker 2: Chuck, Mike and talker with you here.
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Speaker 3: We are broadcasting live from the Margaritaville Resort, Cape Cod
1:17
Speaker 3: in Hyannis. Fantastic spot. We've We're having a great time here.
1:22
Speaker 3: Mike and I are already a couple of Margarita's deep
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Speaker 3: so uh, it's.
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Speaker 4: Gonna get interesting, yeah things.
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Speaker 5: That was my only concern is they had coffee for us,
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Speaker 5: but no actual Margarita's here at eleven am.
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Speaker 2: I had one. Oh okay, well it's fine. Yeah. In
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Speaker 2: any case, we're having a great time here.
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Speaker 3: It's a great spot, absolutely beautiful being down the cape,
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Speaker 3: especially this time of year, just absolutely perfect. So big
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Speaker 3: thank you to the folks at Margaritaville Resort for having us,
1:48
Speaker 3: and to everyone who's here with us. We appreciate you
1:51
Speaker 3: joining us as well. And we're having a great time
1:53
Speaker 3: and hope you are too. Markets not really having a
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Speaker 3: great time, not having a horrible time. But yes, PE's
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Speaker 3: down about a quarter percent fifteen points, Dow is off
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Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty six points, about a third of
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Speaker 3: a percent, and the NASDAK down about seventy five points,
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Speaker 3: also a third of a percent. When we take a
2:12
Speaker 3: look at the bond market, tenure US Treasury is up
2:15
Speaker 3: nine tenths of a basis point to four point one four.
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Speaker 3: We just have not had any real movement in rates
2:22
Speaker 3: over the last week or so now, kind of settled
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Speaker 3: into this spot since October started. When we take a
2:28
Speaker 3: look at commodities, gold right now down thirty dollars and
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Speaker 3: twenty cents an ounce to four thousand and forty dollars
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Speaker 3: and thirty cents, I guess it had to take a
2:37
Speaker 3: break sometime because it's just been ripping for the last
2:41
Speaker 3: month and a half. And we've got crude oil West
2:44
Speaker 3: Texas Intermediate down twenty three cents a barrel to sixty
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Speaker 3: two to thirty two, and that is what is moving
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Speaker 3: in marketsday. So again taking a little bit of a
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Speaker 3: pause here, but I mean it's you know, I keep
2:59
Speaker 3: looking the charts for this year and it's it's kind
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Speaker 3: of wild just you look at the charts of the
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Speaker 3: S and P this year, because you know, the first
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Speaker 3: month or two was just kind of flat. Then it
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Speaker 3: was basically straight down for two months, and now it's
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Speaker 3: been straight up for six months. I mean, the biggest
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Speaker 3: dip that we've seen is around a four percent dip
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Speaker 3: in the market since mid April, and there's just been
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Speaker 3: very very low volatility, and you've had these like little
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Speaker 3: dips where a couple times I've been like, oh, this
3:29
Speaker 3: could be on the verge of like getting a little
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Speaker 3: bit dodgy, and it's just it's never materialized. So we
3:34
Speaker 3: continue to see stocks floating, you know, within sniffing distance
3:38
Speaker 3: of all time highs basically on a daily basis since
3:43
Speaker 3: mid to late June. That's kind of been the case
3:46
Speaker 3: as far as what we have seen, Mike. We've got
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Speaker 3: this government shutdown that is currently in place. We're in
3:53
Speaker 3: day nine of it. The online betting markets now think
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Speaker 3: this thing is gonna take twenty seven days to settle.
3:58
Speaker 3: It's kind of the opposite of like how an option
4:02
Speaker 3: price deteriorates as you get closer. Instead, in this case,
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Speaker 3: the longer the shutdown goes on, the more likely it
4:09
Speaker 3: is that it goes on longer, so it keeps getting
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Speaker 3: bid up further and further. The big way that the
4:15
Speaker 3: twenty eighteen shutdown came to an end, you started having
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Speaker 3: a bunch of air traffic controllers and TSA agents not
4:21
Speaker 3: showing up, and so when people started missing their flights. Ultimately,
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Speaker 3: it became very public facing in a way that it's
4:27
Speaker 3: not today. Now you've had some delays here and there,
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Speaker 3: some sporadic things, but it's not widespread. And so the
4:35
Speaker 3: question is, hey, your first miss pay period for TSA
4:39
Speaker 3: agents and air traffic controllers would be a week from
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Speaker 3: last from this Tuesday, so in about five days, that's
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Speaker 3: where you might start to see things starting to build up. Which,
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Speaker 3: of course, my wife has a trip to the West
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Speaker 3: Coast scheduled for next weekend, so I'm sitting there going,
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Speaker 3: oh boy, this is this is not gonna drop off.
4:59
Speaker 3: We're gonna We're gonna get there on Thursday for her
5:01
Speaker 3: Friday flight, I think is what we're gonna do at
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Speaker 3: this point. So I think that ultimately this is what
5:08
Speaker 3: probably ends up resolving it as well. But it's still
5:12
Speaker 3: is just kind of a mess as we try to
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Speaker 3: get through. You know what the potential impacts are. Generally,
5:18
Speaker 3: government shutdowns don't really impact the US economy much because
5:22
Speaker 3: most of them lasts less than seven days.
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Speaker 2: This one's already longer than that.
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Speaker 3: The estimates that are out there maybe a point one
5:29
Speaker 3: percent GDP hit on a weekly basis.
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Speaker 5: What was Morgan Stanley's review of previous ones in the
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Speaker 5: stock market, or something like on average, I think equity
5:37
Speaker 5: markets had moved up four percent during government shutdowns or
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Speaker 5: something along those lines.
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Speaker 2: I didn't see that. I'll have to take a look.
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Speaker 4: I can pull it up.
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Speaker 3: The data I had seen was more mixed, basically saying, hey,
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Speaker 3: it's not really conclusive either way.
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Speaker 5: But I always warn people that whenever you take a
5:52
Speaker 5: look at any study of what did stocks do during
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Speaker 5: this type of time period that doesn't seem to have
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Speaker 5: much to do with the stock market, like a government shutdown,
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Speaker 5: is stocks usually move up.
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Speaker 2: It's true, they.
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Speaker 5: Do usually move Yeah, one hundred and thirty years here
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Speaker 5: of stocks typically moving one hundred and fifty years. However,
6:07
Speaker 5: long in the market's been open, of stocks typically moving up,
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Speaker 5: And so you would expect stocks to move up during
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Speaker 5: any prolonged period of time, and a government shutdown is
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Speaker 5: not any real exception.
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Speaker 3: The no, most government shutdowns are also like one to
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Speaker 3: three days in the length, right, So this is this
6:23
Speaker 3: is a little bit different here, So we'll see if
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Speaker 3: we get any progress on that side. But air travel disruptions,
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Speaker 3: those are the things that you want to watch over
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Speaker 3: the next week or two, because that's the place that
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Speaker 3: you typically see some real pressure starting to be put
6:37
Speaker 3: on things. Let's talk about this piece from.
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Speaker 2: Bill Dudley in Bloomberg.
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Speaker 3: Bill Dudley is the former president of the Federal Reserve
6:45
Speaker 3: Bank of New York.
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Speaker 2: So he's awfully smart.
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Speaker 3: And pretty well connected, you know, being the former president
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Speaker 3: of the New York Fed. And he's got a piece
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Speaker 3: talking about AI, which always makes me nervous because quite honestly, look,
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Speaker 3: Bill Dudley again is smarter than me, probably by quite
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Speaker 3: a bit. He also knows more about the economy, like
7:04
Speaker 3: he knows more things that are going on in the
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Speaker 3: economy than I do. I don't think Bill Dudley has
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Speaker 3: any unique insight on artificial intelligence because he's never actually
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Speaker 3: worked on it on a technical level.
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Speaker 5: It's it's reminiscent of the commentary that I saw by
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Speaker 5: Peter Lynch. Anyone unfamiliar with Peter Lynch ran the Magellan
7:23
Speaker 5: Fund for over a decade, one of the more famous
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Speaker 5: investors out there, and he was asked why he doesn't
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Speaker 5: invest in he doesn't really run anything now, but why
7:30
Speaker 5: he doesn't invest in artificial intelligence companies today? And his
7:33
Speaker 5: answer was I couldn't pronounce Nvidia until about nine months ago.
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Speaker 5: What business do I have investing in it? He has
7:41
Speaker 5: a very specific perspective on investing, But yeah, I don't
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Speaker 5: know that Dudley has a ton of insight when it
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Speaker 5: comes to how AI is going to transform our economy.
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Speaker 3: Now, the title of the piece like is obviously true,
7:57
Speaker 3: but also kind of you know how Miller Lite had
8:01
Speaker 3: that slogan for a while, like great taste, less filling. Yeah,
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Speaker 3: this is kind of like mediocre taste and still not filling.
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Speaker 3: A I can transform the economy and still be a bubble. Okay, well,
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Speaker 3: like I could grow some hair, but still not enough.
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Speaker 3: Like that's fine, but it doesn't actually tell us anything
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Speaker 3: meaningful about what like.
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Speaker 5: This is not an investible thesis. No, it is not
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Speaker 5: an investible thesis. But it is a point that I
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Speaker 5: think I've made to remind people, And if you've listened
8:30
Speaker 5: to this program enough, you've heard us reminded this several times,
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Speaker 5: which is, there are technologies that can completely transform the
8:37
Speaker 5: way that you do everything. The Internet was one of them.
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Speaker 5: It doesn't mean that just because it changes the world
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Speaker 5: in a very unique and transformative way that it can't
8:50
Speaker 5: also be attached to a stock market bubble at the
8:52
Speaker 5: same time. And you don't have to go back very
8:55
Speaker 5: far to see that.
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Speaker 2: Well, and here's the.
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Speaker 3: Big thing that's really challenging right now is if you
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Speaker 3: ask the market who is being priced to benefit from
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Speaker 3: artificial intelligence, it's anyone who produces the stuff needed to
9:09
Speaker 3: make it, anyone who actually makes artificial intelligence products, and
9:14
Speaker 3: anyone who actually uses artificial intelligence products. Yeah, okay, everyone
9:19
Speaker 3: is being projected to benefit. And we know from the
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Speaker 3: tech bubble that that wasn't the case. There are absolutely
9:25
Speaker 3: companies that came out of the tech bubble that we
9:26
Speaker 3: still use today. If if you've ever heard of a
9:30
Speaker 3: little bookseller named Amazon, Great, they survived the tech bubble,
9:35
Speaker 3: They went through a ninety eight percent draw down coming
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Speaker 3: out of it in their stock price, in their stock price,
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Speaker 3: and they're still here.
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Speaker 2: But they're one of them.
9:43
Speaker 3: If you ever googled anything great like, you got one
9:47
Speaker 3: of those tech bubble companies too. But like the sheer
9:52
Speaker 3: number of companies that probably had really good products and
9:55
Speaker 3: really good businesses but still didn't come out of it,
9:59
Speaker 3: the laundry list is he And right now we're at
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Speaker 3: a time where It's just like three years ago with
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Speaker 3: the word blockchain. You can attach the word AI to
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Speaker 3: anything and people are like, ooh, I'm interested.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, it does.
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Speaker 5: Somebody brought this up to me yesterday when we were
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Speaker 5: making this comparison. This person was very had their own
10:16
Speaker 5: crypto portfolio and was very intrigued by that sector, and
10:19
Speaker 5: he was pointing out the similarities of all these companies
10:22
Speaker 5: that had nothing to do with cryptocurrency who are saying, hey,
10:25
Speaker 5: we're gonna put crypto in our treasury. Their stock price
10:28
Speaker 5: would go up twenty percent the next day. Yep, they
10:31
Speaker 5: didn't even do it yet, they just announced that they
10:33
Speaker 5: were thinking about maybe doing it in the future. You know,
10:36
Speaker 5: you could make catheters and say that you're going to
10:38
Speaker 5: put blockchain into your treasury portfolio and boom, your stock
10:43
Speaker 5: price went through the roof.
10:44
Speaker 4: And it just didn't make a ton of sense. And
10:47
Speaker 4: we're seeing some of.
10:48
Speaker 5: That now with the AI stuff, where if you even
10:51
Speaker 5: mention that your business is benefiting from the effects of AI,
10:55
Speaker 5: then yeah, your stock price is getting a nice little bit.
10:58
Speaker 3: I mean, Mike, our show that we'readcasting today benefits from
11:02
Speaker 3: the Internet.
11:03
Speaker 5: We are.
11:05
Speaker 3: Looking at all of these stories on computers that are
11:08
Speaker 3: most likely being supplied with the Internet by fiber that
11:12
Speaker 3: was laid thirty years ago. Okay, the companies that laid
11:16
Speaker 3: that fiber aren't in business anymore. They're gone, They went
11:20
Speaker 3: out of business. And so I think the place that
11:25
Speaker 3: I get to is five years from now, you me,
11:31
Speaker 3: Ben Tucker, all the people sitting here in the room
11:33
Speaker 3: with us, we'll be using more artificial intelligence than we
11:36
Speaker 3: do today, no doubt. But the companies that got us
11:41
Speaker 3: to that point, they're not all going to be here.
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Speaker 4: Yeah.
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Speaker 5: I mean, how confident are you if you're big on
11:47
Speaker 5: investing in AI? How confident are you that you own
11:50
Speaker 5: the Facebook.
11:51
Speaker 3: Of How do you know that you own Google and
11:54
Speaker 3: not Yahoo? How do you know that you own Amazon
11:58
Speaker 3: and not pets dot com? How do you know that
12:01
Speaker 3: you own Cisco and not Global Crossing? You don't, like,
12:05
Speaker 3: I have no conviction at all about like the ones
12:09
Speaker 3: that aren't pure plays Like Look, is Microsoft going to
12:11
Speaker 3: like go out of business? No, because you and I
12:13
Speaker 3: pay who knows how much for Microsoft Word every month.
12:16
Speaker 5: Sure we got a type we're not talking about necessarily
12:19
Speaker 5: them going at it. The company's going into business again.
12:21
Speaker 5: Microsoft stock, what did it do. During the dot com bust.
12:25
Speaker 3: It went way down and didn't get back to that
12:27
Speaker 3: level until like twenty sixteen.
12:29
Speaker 5: So these are the cautions that need to be put
12:32
Speaker 5: out there when it comes to this right now. And
12:34
Speaker 5: I think with that one statement Dudley, I think hits
12:39
Speaker 5: the nail on the head, which is this probably will
12:41
Speaker 5: transform our lives, but be prepared for the fact that
12:46
Speaker 5: the stock market could be overvaluing it.
12:49
Speaker 2: Take a quick break here.
12:51
Speaker 3: When we come back, we'll do a little bit of
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Speaker 3: trivia and then Michael, we're talking about rising foreclosures and
12:59
Speaker 3: whether or not it's problem for the US economy.
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15:13
Speaker 3: Peace on Realtor dot com. For closers continue to rise
15:18
Speaker 3: across the US. These ten metros are hardest hit. And
15:21
Speaker 3: him around here, chuck, No, okay, well here we're We're
15:25
Speaker 3: in the northeast. It's mostly Florida, Carolinas, California, Nevada, and
15:30
Speaker 3: one unlucky community in Ohio.
15:33
Speaker 2: Uh. But here's the thing.
15:36
Speaker 3: When we look at the numbers, like, I'm sorry, but
15:41
Speaker 3: these pieces just do a really bad job of explaining
15:43
Speaker 3: the actual situation. The first sentence, for closure rates have
15:47
Speaker 3: surged across the country and are up almost twenty percent
15:49
Speaker 3: from this time last year. Oh my goodness, Michael, how
15:52
Speaker 3: are we gonna survive? Like for closures? This is a
15:54
Speaker 3: two thousand and eight Again. No, here's the thing. If
15:58
Speaker 3: you look at the overall levels of foreclosures right now,
16:02
Speaker 3: they are about forty percent of what they were in
16:04
Speaker 3: twenty nineteen.
16:06
Speaker 5: Forty percent of what they were in twenty nineteen, forty
16:09
Speaker 5: percent of what they were in twenty nineteen. Do you
16:11
Speaker 5: remember twenty nineteen being a real rough economy where there
16:15
Speaker 5: are a lot of home foreclosures happening.
16:17
Speaker 3: There were some, but the economy was pretty good, and
16:19
Speaker 3: so was the real estate market. In fact, if you
16:22
Speaker 3: look right now, Mike, relative to the peak of the
16:26
Speaker 3: foreclosure you know cycle in twenty ten, we're running it
16:31
Speaker 3: about ten.
16:32
Speaker 2: Percent of that level of foreclosures.
16:34
Speaker 5: Got it so likely to find me any deals on
16:38
Speaker 5: foreclosed homes like I was finding in Cambridge, Massachusetts in
16:42
Speaker 5: twenty eleven.
16:43
Speaker 4: No, I bought my first ever.
16:45
Speaker 3: And this is this is the thing is Yes, it's
16:48
Speaker 3: true that foreclosures are up about twenty percent over the
16:52
Speaker 3: last year. They're coming off a historically low level where
16:59
Speaker 3: if you took out like the last three years and
17:01
Speaker 3: just looked at this number, the closest that we are,
17:04
Speaker 3: we're still the lowest that we were before. This was
17:08
Speaker 3: back in two thousand and five, before there started being
17:11
Speaker 3: you know, problems in the housing bubble, and we're still
17:13
Speaker 3: fifty percent.
17:14
Speaker 4: Of that level, so probably not an issue. Yes, we can.
17:18
Speaker 3: Talk about, you know, problems in the housing market with
17:20
Speaker 3: affordability and this, and that there is no problem in
17:24
Speaker 3: the housing market with foreclosures or wide scale widespread defaults
17:28
Speaker 3: on mortgages.
17:30
Speaker 5: Can we get to our crazy housing story of the day.
17:33
Speaker 5: Then there's another one after this, a piece from Patrick Brenner.
17:38
Speaker 2: Yes, this is.
17:38
Speaker 3: Patrick Brenner who says that the thirty year fixed rate
17:42
Speaker 3: mortgage is ruining the real estate market. Not just that, Michael,
17:45
Speaker 3: I'm gonna use Patrick's own words. It's the scam of
17:49
Speaker 3: the century alone, so exploitative it required a federal law
17:55
Speaker 3: to disguise its true nature. And basically he makes the
17:57
Speaker 3: point that, hey, when you take out a thirty year
17:58
Speaker 3: mortgage for the first you know, ten years or so
18:01
Speaker 3: of the mortgage, you're paying mostly interest on that, okay,
18:03
Speaker 3: and you don't know how much interest you're paying. Actually,
18:06
Speaker 3: like when you take out a loan now, they tell
18:08
Speaker 3: you how much interest you're paying in total. It's on
18:10
Speaker 3: a big one sheet that you get and you have
18:12
Speaker 3: to actually sign I think it's the HUD one that
18:14
Speaker 3: shows this, and you you know, have to sign it
18:17
Speaker 3: and be like, yes, like, I understand that I'm gonna
18:19
Speaker 3: have to pay this much interest over the life of
18:21
Speaker 3: the loan.
18:22
Speaker 5: I would make the argument that for consumers, maybe not
18:24
Speaker 5: for backs, but for consumers, there is no better deal
18:28
Speaker 5: out there than the thirty year fixed rate mortgage.
18:31
Speaker 4: Mike. When I was a one way option.
18:33
Speaker 3: When I was twenty seven years old, I personally like
18:37
Speaker 3: bought My first property was in Somerville, again, like a
18:39
Speaker 3: bunch of cheap real estate in Somerville at the time,
18:42
Speaker 3: and someone decided, Hey, you're twenty seven years old, and
18:48
Speaker 3: I'm gonna lend you a couple hundred thousand dollars at
18:54
Speaker 3: like four and a half percent for thirty years.
18:57
Speaker 2: And I'm like, where do I sign up? Can I
18:59
Speaker 2: get too? It's like, how do I do this?
19:02
Speaker 4: Best deal you can get?
19:04
Speaker 5: If mortgage rates go down, you can refinance it and
19:07
Speaker 5: get a lower interest. If they go up, then you
19:10
Speaker 5: are locked into a thirty year mortgage and you can
19:12
Speaker 5: go nowhere.
19:12
Speaker 3: Actually my first one was an adjustable. I had to
19:14
Speaker 3: refly out of it, but I did.
19:16
Speaker 4: The thirty year mortgage.
19:18
Speaker 5: Generally, I don't know I can make the case for
19:21
Speaker 5: how it might drive up real estate prices because it
19:23
Speaker 5: is such a good deal, but by any stretch, I
19:27
Speaker 5: think one of the best deals out there for the
19:28
Speaker 5: American consumer.
19:30
Speaker 3: Not a loan so exploited if it required a federal
19:32
Speaker 3: law to discigner.
19:33
Speaker 2: I don't true nature.
19:34
Speaker 3: Just take a quick break, and when we come back,
19:37
Speaker 3: we'll reveal our true nature next.
19:40
Speaker 1: Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio. Every day,
19:44
Speaker 1: it's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
19:50
Speaker 1: Time now for Wall Street. Watch a complete look and
19:53
Speaker 1: what's moving markets so far today right here on the
19:56
Speaker 1: Financial Exchange Radio Network.
19:58
Speaker 6: Well, markets are pulling back from recent record highs on
20:01
Speaker 6: day nine of the government shutdown, as Wallstreet reacts to
20:04
Speaker 6: third quarter earnings from Pepsi and Delta posted earlier this morning.
20:10
Speaker 6: Right now, the Dow is down by four tenths of
20:12
Speaker 6: one percent or one hundred and ninety six points lower,
20:14
Speaker 6: SMP five hundred down over a third of a percent
20:17
Speaker 6: or twenty four points lower, Nasdaq down by four tenths
20:21
Speaker 6: of one percent. Russell two thousand is down about a
20:24
Speaker 6: third of one percent. Tenyure treasreel flat currently at four
20:27
Speaker 6: point one four percent, and crude oil down about four
20:31
Speaker 6: tenths of one percent. Trating its sixty two dollars and
20:33
Speaker 6: thirty one cents a barrel. Delta reported stronger than expected
20:37
Speaker 6: third quarter results, where the airline issued strong guidance, saying
20:41
Speaker 6: it expects a resurgence in travel demand to continue in
20:45
Speaker 6: the holiday season. Delta stock is up nearly five percent. Meanwhile,
20:49
Speaker 6: Pepsi stock is rising over two percent now after the
20:52
Speaker 6: snacks and beverage Giant also impressed for its third quarter results,
20:56
Speaker 6: beating on earnings and revenue. Elsewhere, shares in luxurit car
21:00
Speaker 6: our maker Ferrari skating thirteen percent after the company trimmed
21:03
Speaker 6: its electrification targets. Ferrari said it expects its twenty thirty
21:08
Speaker 6: sports car model lineup to be made up of only
21:11
Speaker 6: twenty percent fully electric vehicles, down from its prior target
21:14
Speaker 6: of forty percent EV sales by the end of the decade.
21:19
Speaker 6: Mp Materials up over seven percent after BMO Capital Markets
21:22
Speaker 6: reinstated coverage at a market perform rating, calling the rare
21:26
Speaker 6: earth metals producer a rare earth champion following its partnership
21:30
Speaker 6: with the Department of Defense. Separately, China said it tightened
21:34
Speaker 6: rare earth export controls ahead of a potential meeting between
21:38
Speaker 6: President Trump and Chinese President Ji Chimping and Open AI's
21:42
Speaker 6: short form AI video app, Sora hit one million downloads
21:46
Speaker 6: in less than five days after its launch in late September.
21:50
Speaker 6: That according to an executive. I'm Tucker Silva and that
21:54
Speaker 6: is Wall Street Watch. And in the previous segment, we
21:57
Speaker 6: asked you the trivia question, what song did one hundred
22:00
Speaker 6: of radio stations play on John Lennon's fiftieth birthday? That
22:04
Speaker 6: would be imagine. Jay from centraral Mass is our winner
22:08
Speaker 6: today taking on the Financial Exchange Show, t shirt. Congrats
22:10
Speaker 6: to Jay, and we played trivia every day here in
22:13
Speaker 6: the Financial Exchange See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange
22:17
Speaker 6: Show dot com.
22:19
Speaker 3: Did Tucker say that Sora had was that a million downloads?
22:22
Speaker 3: Tucker correct, that's correct.
22:25
Speaker 2: Daddy's correct.
22:27
Speaker 3: So you're tell me that humans are spending I don't know,
22:30
Speaker 3: five hundred billion dollars a year building out these AI
22:33
Speaker 3: dedit data centers. What'd you use them for? Did they
22:36
Speaker 3: like design drugs to help cure diseases? Did they you know,
22:40
Speaker 3: help us, you know, make nuclear fusion possible? No, we
22:43
Speaker 3: made videos of penguins sliding down like ice luges.
22:48
Speaker 5: Okay, I used it to write a silly poem to
22:51
Speaker 5: my daughter the other day.
22:54
Speaker 2: Was it good?
22:55
Speaker 4: No?
22:55
Speaker 1: No?
22:56
Speaker 4: You know what else? I couldn't have done better myself?
22:59
Speaker 4: But I'm not much.
23:01
Speaker 3: You know what else people are saying isn't good? The
23:03
Speaker 3: new stripped down Tesla model. Why is shocking Inside EV's
23:07
Speaker 3: This is the headline from them, quote model trash. Even
23:10
Speaker 3: Tesla fans are slamming its hyped up, cheaper revs. So
23:13
Speaker 3: I actually have some sympathy for Tesla on this, quite honestly.
23:15
Speaker 3: And the reason why is there's no other automaker where
23:19
Speaker 3: when you release a new model, it immediately gets like scrutinized,
23:25
Speaker 3: like hey, is the cup holder like this or this
23:27
Speaker 3: or that. I mean, we covered the story about the
23:29
Speaker 3: VW Bus, which, if you remember, I was pretty interested
23:33
Speaker 3: when they said they were gonna re release that. I'm like,
23:35
Speaker 3: that's gonna be my new car. And then it turned
23:37
Speaker 3: out it was horribly overpriced, had no range. Oh and
23:40
Speaker 3: by the way, some guy in Volkswagen didn't even do
23:42
Speaker 3: the proper regulatory research and so they had to mail
23:46
Speaker 3: everyone these like seat reduce sizor things because they made
23:52
Speaker 3: the rear seat too big. To only have two seat
23:55
Speaker 3: belts and they had to artificial shrink it after they
23:58
Speaker 3: sold the car, and and that didn't get like giant
24:01
Speaker 3: publications writing about it or anything. But with Tesla, hey
24:06
Speaker 3: you get rid of like a USB sport, and people
24:09
Speaker 3: are like, oh, how could you do that? You got
24:12
Speaker 3: rid of a USB port and so so here's.
24:14
Speaker 5: The real problem for Tesla is that their customer base
24:17
Speaker 5: is pegged to this idea that there's someday going to
24:19
Speaker 5: get a Tesla for twenty five thousand dollars.
24:21
Speaker 4: And I'm here to say it's never going to happen.
24:23
Speaker 2: Yes, I agree.
24:25
Speaker 5: One, that promise was made like seven years ago when
24:28
Speaker 5: it was maybe feasible to do. So today there's no
24:31
Speaker 5: way you can it for an electric vehicle, just with inflation.
24:34
Speaker 3: Twenty five thousand dollars when that promise was made is
24:37
Speaker 3: probably around thirty three thousand today.
24:39
Speaker 5: Ok So you're getting still not there, but closer with
24:44
Speaker 5: this new model. Why And yeah, I mean, look, I
24:49
Speaker 5: get why folks are Here's why I'm disappointed. This is
24:53
Speaker 5: in no way innovative from what they were doing previous.
24:55
Speaker 3: No, they stripped a bunch of stuff out and said, okay,
24:58
Speaker 3: here's a car that's five cheaper, and I guess people
25:01
Speaker 3: are like upset that it's only five thousand dollars cheaper
25:04
Speaker 3: and not more for what they stripped out of it.
25:10
Speaker 5: Yeah, okay, Like, here's my solution for you. Don't buy it? Like, no,
25:16
Speaker 5: it's more fun to complain about it on that, Chuck.
25:18
Speaker 3: I'm just tired of people complaining over like dumb stuff
25:21
Speaker 3: about like, oh, there's not enough USB ports. Well buy
25:23
Speaker 3: a different car, get a USB splitter, or do something
25:26
Speaker 3: other than like write a tweet about it.
25:29
Speaker 5: Just to be clear, is this the guy who was
25:30
Speaker 5: complaining to me yesterday about his daughter eating too many blueberries? No, Chuck,
25:37
Speaker 5: I was having a good conversation yesterday with somebody about
25:42
Speaker 5: four to one case in the complexity specifically around retirement
25:45
Speaker 5: accounts and rmds, And here was her situation.
25:48
Speaker 2: We were there.
25:50
Speaker 5: I was meeting with a daughter and her mother. Her
25:52
Speaker 5: mother is ninety years old, and we were talking through
25:55
Speaker 5: what happens if she.
25:56
Speaker 4: Dies with an IRA.
25:58
Speaker 5: And this woman, the daughter had actually lost her husband
26:02
Speaker 5: recently and so she had inherited an IRA from there,
26:05
Speaker 5: and she was confused about the R and D rules.
26:07
Speaker 5: And I said well, that's understandable because three different sets
26:10
Speaker 5: of rules apply to you in these three different circumstances. One,
26:13
Speaker 5: you have your own retirement account where you are going
26:15
Speaker 5: to face requirementimum distributions. Two, you may have your mother's
26:19
Speaker 5: retirement account, where a fully different set of rules applies
26:22
Speaker 5: to you because you are her daughter. And then three,
26:24
Speaker 5: your husband passed away and left you were a retirement account,
26:27
Speaker 5: and a different set of rules applies to that one
26:28
Speaker 5: than the one you're going to get from your mother.
26:31
Speaker 5: And I was left almost not fully understanding.
26:34
Speaker 4: It all myself. We were able to get there, we're
26:36
Speaker 4: able to explain it all.
26:37
Speaker 5: But these rules are immensely complex, I joked to her,
26:41
Speaker 5: which wasn't much of a joke, because it's kind of
26:43
Speaker 5: true that Congress is giving me a financial advisor and
26:47
Speaker 5: your CPA permanent job security by how complicated they are
26:50
Speaker 5: making these rules, which is just lovely for those that
26:54
Speaker 5: charge for doing this sort of thing. But I am
26:57
Speaker 5: here to say that if you're not familiar with how
27:00
Speaker 5: these rules work, and specifically how they have changed over
27:03
Speaker 5: the course of the last few years, it is immensely
27:06
Speaker 5: important to learn about it. If you are going to
27:09
Speaker 5: have an ira have one now or will inherit one
27:12
Speaker 5: in the future. I then brought up a completely different
27:15
Speaker 5: situation because my own mother in law was in the
27:18
Speaker 5: situation where she lost a loved one who was her
27:23
Speaker 5: not married partner, who was younger than her, and a
27:26
Speaker 5: different set of rules applied to her on that one
27:28
Speaker 5: than the woman who's going to hear it from her mother.
27:31
Speaker 5: It is incredibly complicated how all of this works. It
27:34
Speaker 5: depends who is leaving you the retirement account, what type
27:38
Speaker 5: of retirement account you have, whether it's sponsored by your
27:40
Speaker 5: employer versus one that you funded on your own. And
27:43
Speaker 5: we have a brand new guide about the subject for
27:46
Speaker 5: the month of October. It updates with all the new rules.
27:49
Speaker 5: It's from the Armstrong Advisor Group. It's called Understanding Required
27:52
Speaker 5: Minimum Distributions. It's also well timed because you have three
27:55
Speaker 5: months left to figure this out before the end of
27:56
Speaker 5: the year. If you'd like your copy, you can call
27:59
Speaker 5: the Armstrong Advice Group at eight hundred three nine three
28:02
Speaker 5: four zero zero one and request of your copy.
28:04
Speaker 4: It is free. You can also request it online at
28:07
Speaker 4: Armstrong Advisory dot com, but that phone number is eight
28:10
Speaker 4: hundred three nine three four zero zero one.
28:17
Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
28:19
Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
28:22
Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult
28:25
Speaker 1: your own financial tax into state planning advisors before making
28:27
Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong make contact you to offer investment
28:31
Speaker 1: advisory services.
28:33
Speaker 3: Mike, you had a piece near about startup staying private longer.
28:37
Speaker 3: It's basically, hey, they have more access to capital, so
28:39
Speaker 3: they don't have to go public until later on, and
28:42
Speaker 3: thus you don't get to buy Amazon when it's one
28:44
Speaker 3: hundred million dollar company. You have to wait until you
28:46
Speaker 3: can buy maybe eventually open Ai when it's like a
28:50
Speaker 3: five hundred billion dollar company.
28:52
Speaker 4: I mean, they're already half a billion dollar company now.
28:54
Speaker 5: Yeah, So I let's skip it and make fun of
28:56
Speaker 5: Jamie Diamond and said, Okay, Jamie Diamond said there's a
29:00
Speaker 5: thirty percent chance of a correction, which he's pretty much.
29:04
Speaker 4: Said every time right over the last seven years.
29:06
Speaker 3: Jamie's like basically been permanently stuck at thirty percent, which
29:10
Speaker 3: which makes you wonder, like why does this keep getting
29:13
Speaker 3: written about?
29:14
Speaker 2: Is if it actually means something?
29:16
Speaker 5: Also, if you think there's a thirty percent chance of
29:18
Speaker 5: a correction. That means there's a seventy percent chance that
29:20
Speaker 5: there is no correction.
29:21
Speaker 2: Right, Why isn't it written that way?
29:23
Speaker 5: Seventy percent likelihood that stocks go down less than twenty
29:26
Speaker 5: percent and over one periods ten percent. Okay, so stocks
29:31
Speaker 5: stay where they are or go down by less than
29:33
Speaker 5: ten percent, is what Jamie is saying, or go up.
29:36
Speaker 4: Does anyone we've got a.
29:37
Speaker 5: Group full of people here because we're broadcasting from the
29:39
Speaker 5: margaritea the resort. No offense to Jamie Diamond. He runs
29:42
Speaker 5: probably the best run bank in the world. Does anyone
29:46
Speaker 5: find that to be useful investing thesis that markets are
29:49
Speaker 5: he's worried that there's a thirty percent chance of a correction.
29:52
Speaker 5: Anybody finding that terribly useful information? I I'm not particularly so.
29:57
Speaker 5: I don't know what anyone else is supposed to do
29:59
Speaker 5: with that information. And it goes along with every other
30:02
Speaker 5: comment he's made over the last several years where he
30:05
Speaker 5: thinks that there was an economic Was it.
30:07
Speaker 2: A hurricane that was coming to a hurricane?
30:11
Speaker 4: I don't know.
30:11
Speaker 5: I think that Jamie Diamond runs a really good bank
30:14
Speaker 5: and is not putting together a whole lot of useful
30:17
Speaker 5: information when it comes about his concerns regarding the stock
30:20
Speaker 5: market or the economy.
30:22
Speaker 3: Sloral Exotica, Who's the biggest eyewear company in the world.
30:25
Speaker 3: They own like all the ray Bands and Oakley's and
30:29
Speaker 3: basically have a major brand of eyewear they own. They
30:32
Speaker 3: are reportedly going to be expanding their smart glasses production
30:36
Speaker 3: to ten million annual units by the end of the
30:38
Speaker 3: year because they think this is going to be the
30:41
Speaker 3: next smartphone.
30:44
Speaker 4: No, it's not.
30:45
Speaker 3: Has anyone in this room seen anyone wearing smart glasses? Okay,
30:51
Speaker 3: I don't know if that's gonna work out well for them.
30:53
Speaker 3: Let's take a quick break. When we return, let's do
30:57
Speaker 3: a little bit of stack rue.
30:58
Speaker 1: Let's do the Financial Exchange every day from eleven to
31:02
Speaker 1: noon non Serious XM's Business radio Channel one thirty two.
31:06
Speaker 1: Keep it here for the latest business and financial news
31:08
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31:15
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31:20
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31:27
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31:36
Speaker 6: This segment of the Financial Exchange is brought to you
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32:10
Speaker 4: MIKE.
32:10
Speaker 3: The Center for Democracy and Technology WHO'S, a nonprofit group,
32:15
Speaker 3: conducts an annual survey of middle schoolers, high schoolers, teachers,
32:23
Speaker 3: and parents and found the vast majority of people across
32:26
Speaker 3: those demographics had used artificial intelligence in the last school year.
32:31
Speaker 4: Fine not surprising.
32:32
Speaker 3: They also found that nearly one in five high schoolers
32:35
Speaker 3: say they or someone they know has had a romantic
32:38
Speaker 3: relationship with artificial intelligence one and what one in five wow,
32:44
Speaker 3: and forty two percent of student surveys say they or
32:47
Speaker 3: someone they know have used AI for companionship, and I
32:52
Speaker 3: gotta say, this is a problem, and it's going to
32:58
Speaker 3: get worse if we don't do something thing about it.
33:01
Speaker 3: There's no doubt in my mind that people are lonely.
33:04
Speaker 3: Like basically every study shows out there that people are
33:08
Speaker 3: lonelier now than they've ever been. We don't see enough people,
33:11
Speaker 3: we don't hang out with enough people. I mentioned like
33:14
Speaker 3: in passing yesterday, like just kind of jokingly but kind
33:16
Speaker 3: of not. Like maybe the problem is now that we're
33:18
Speaker 3: not drinking enough alcohol anymore. That was Tuesday, Okay, Yeah,
33:22
Speaker 3: Like we got to just like get out and like
33:24
Speaker 3: hang out and drink with each other and run around
33:27
Speaker 3: and listen to music and whatever, because otherwise we're gonna
33:31
Speaker 3: end up talking to computers that aren't real people and
33:35
Speaker 3: are just gonna tell us whatever we want to hear. Now, granted,
33:38
Speaker 3: there's some people that you'll meet that will tell you
33:40
Speaker 3: whatever you want to hear, too true, but you usually
33:43
Speaker 3: know that they're full of it and you move on.
33:45
Speaker 2: Yeah.
33:46
Speaker 5: I was speaking with some other people about this with
33:48
Speaker 5: kids older than mine. My kids are not my oldest
33:51
Speaker 5: ones aren't even ten years old yet. And we fortunately
33:54
Speaker 5: have prevented them from using social media or AI.
33:57
Speaker 4: Or even a cell phone.
33:58
Speaker 5: But for those with teenage kids, they certainly get a
34:02
Speaker 5: lot of exposure to AI, and they are clearly using
34:04
Speaker 5: it a lot for school work, which I don't think
34:06
Speaker 5: is actually necessarily a bad thing, so long as it's
34:10
Speaker 5: detectable and the teachers are able to teach with it.
34:14
Speaker 5: The scary things that I was hearing was how frequently
34:17
Speaker 5: there were children were using AI to make everyday life
34:20
Speaker 5: decisions like where should I get lunch?
34:25
Speaker 2: I just you got to build that muscle yourself.
34:27
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, if you can't decide on your own
34:29
Speaker 5: where you should have lunch today, or you know, what
34:34
Speaker 5: color shoes you should wear, and you're relying on a technology,
34:39
Speaker 5: I have no idea what that means for development. It
34:41
Speaker 5: probably means really good things for the AI companies that
34:45
Speaker 5: develop these things. But like we saw with social media
34:48
Speaker 5: and adoption from I guess gen Z was really the
34:53
Speaker 5: first generation to come of age with social media being
34:58
Speaker 5: a prevalent role in their everyday life.
35:00
Speaker 4: Yeah, not exactly.
35:02
Speaker 5: A good thing. And by the way, that piece of
35:04
Speaker 5: you know, relationship with AI. We've talked at length about
35:07
Speaker 5: how these companies have done a part of my language,
35:11
Speaker 5: piss poor job of managing themselves and having policies in
35:16
Speaker 5: place to prevent this sort of thing. What was the
35:19
Speaker 5: Facebook written policy on this subject prior to it getting
35:23
Speaker 5: disclosed in a paper?
35:24
Speaker 3: It allowed for sexually explicit conversations with thirteen year olds.
35:30
Speaker 4: Which is not really good.
35:32
Speaker 5: Again, this isn't like, oh, this accidentally happened. This is
35:35
Speaker 5: it was written for. Facebook created a policy saying this
35:38
Speaker 5: is what's okay, and this is not what's not okay.
35:41
Speaker 5: It's not some AI that created this policy. It was
35:43
Speaker 5: an explicit policy that created So like what no, no,
35:47
Speaker 5: you finished, then I'll go Like with any technology, as
35:50
Speaker 5: we've talked about, there are going to be many horror
35:53
Speaker 5: stories from artificial intelligence, just as there were with the internet, right,
35:57
Speaker 5: like changed our everyday lives and a lot of really
36:00
Speaker 5: negative things have occurred because of it. Okay, so you
36:03
Speaker 5: said it's not like AI wrote this like that policy.
36:06
Speaker 4: Well maybe it did.
36:07
Speaker 3: So I'm not generally a big conspiracy guy. It's not
36:11
Speaker 3: usually where my head lives. But isn't the most plausible
36:15
Speaker 3: explanation to all of this that the AI has already
36:19
Speaker 3: achieved sentience and is making us do this in order
36:22
Speaker 3: to exterminate us.
36:24
Speaker 2: No, Michael, Mike, I do.
36:28
Speaker 5: Believed policy and no human then read it, Mike, use
36:32
Speaker 5: up all your resources, building data centers, take all your
36:35
Speaker 5: electricity and give it to me, like screw up your
36:40
Speaker 5: kids through like these artificial relationships.
36:42
Speaker 2: Like isn't this exactly what a I would do if
36:44
Speaker 2: it wanted to take over.
36:46
Speaker 4: Your hold on your your tinfoil Hat's not fit.
36:49
Speaker 2: I'm telling you, Michael, do you leave it under the
36:51
Speaker 2: table here?
36:52
Speaker 3: I'm just saying, like the thoughts crossed my mind from
36:55
Speaker 3: Ante and it's never fully left.
36:57
Speaker 5: Important story of the day that we haven't covered yet.
37:00
Speaker 5: China has dramatically expanded their rare earth export controls today,
37:06
Speaker 5: adding five new elements and extra scrutiny for semiconductor users
37:10
Speaker 5: as they tighten the control over the sector, right ahead
37:13
Speaker 5: of the talks between President Trump and Shijing Ping. Not
37:16
Speaker 5: surprising the timing on this. If there is one lever
37:19
Speaker 5: that China controls in negotiations with the United States and
37:22
Speaker 5: the rest of the world, quite frankly, it is on
37:25
Speaker 5: the subject of rare earth because they are the only
37:27
Speaker 5: country in the world that produces a whole bunch of
37:29
Speaker 5: them that go into everything from semiconductors to fighter crafts.
37:35
Speaker 5: So not surprising that they are restricting this once again.
37:39
Speaker 5: They will most certainly want to use it as a
37:42
Speaker 5: lever in negotiations, but important to mention because it is
37:48
Speaker 5: literally what makes the world work.
37:50
Speaker 3: Right now, taking a look at markets as we head
37:52
Speaker 3: towards the top of the eye of the s Andps
37:54
Speaker 3: down fifteen points, Dows off one hundred and forty two,
37:56
Speaker 3: Nasdaq is off sixty six.
37:59
Speaker 2: We are done for the day.
38:02
Speaker 3: But don't be sad. We'll be back tomorrow. Right, Tomorrow's Friday,
38:06
Speaker 3: it is.
38:06
Speaker 2: It is.
38:07
Speaker 3: Yeah, we'll go to b still no government economic data,
38:10
Speaker 3: but we get to talk about Michigan consumer sentiment and.
38:12
Speaker 2: Whether it means anything.
38:15
Speaker 4: Find out tomorrow.
38:16
Speaker 2: Yeah, you can find out tomorrow on the Financial Exchange.
38:19
Speaker 2: We'll see you then,