Latest / Ground Signal FM / Ground Signal Deep Dive: Markets & Economy — September 11, 2026

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Ground Signal Deep Dive: Markets & Economy — September 11, 2026 · Ground Signal FM

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  Ground Signal, Markets, and Economy. September
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  11th, 2026, hosted by Tenet. This is Ground Signal.
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  I'm Tenet. Today is September 11th, 2026, and
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  the market story right now has two separate engines
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  running at the same time, and they're pushing
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  in opposite directions. Engine one, oil and geopolitics.
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  Brent Crude has crossed $100 a barrel and kept
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  going. We're looking at prices in the range of
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  $108 today, according to market reports captured
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  this morning. That is a roughly 12 to 15 percent
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  move from where we were just a few weeks ago.
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  And it is being driven almost entirely by the
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  ongoing conflict between U .S. and Iranian forces
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  in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian tankers struck.
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  American naval vessels engaged. Commercial shipping
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  slowing in one of the world's most critical maritime
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  choke points. We covered the initial Houthi strikes
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  and the Iranian restricted zone announcement.
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  in our signal level four watch on September 8th.
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  What we're seeing now is escalation beyond that
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  original threat. S &P Global's Platts dated Brent
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  Benchmark hit $114 on September 9th. That is
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  a wartime premium on top of an already elevated
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  baseline. The watch signal stays at four and
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  is approaching five. Engine two, earnings. Oracle
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  and Adobe both reported on September 10th after
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  the close and both beat. Oracle's cloud infrastructure
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  revenue surged 121 % year -over -year to $7 .4
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  billion. Total revenue came in at $19 .3 billion.
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  Shares popped roughly 7 % in after -hours. They
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  fell back today. Oracle is trading at 152, down
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  5 .4%, as the broader market digested the oil
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  shock on top of the CPI release this morning.
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  Adobe hit record quarterly revenue of $6 .76
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  billion. up 13 % year over year, with its AI
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  first annual recurring revenue growing more than
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  150%. Adobe shares are at 248, down 2 .4%, same
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  story, strong results, but the macro headwinds
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  are in charge today. The net read, the market
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  is caught between strong technology earnings
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  on one side and a legitimate geopolitical energy
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  shock on the other. Neither story is going away
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  before the Federal Reserve meets next week. Let's
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  move to the tape. S &P 500, 7 ,591, down 44 points,
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  down 0 .6%. This is a market under pressure,
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  not a market in freefall. The prior close was
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  around 7 ,635, and we've been in a gradual downtrend
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  since the oil spike accelerated midweek. Nikkei
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  225, 65 ,270, up 0 .2%. Tokyo is holding because
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  the yen weakened. A weaker yen helps Japanese
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  exporters, which partially offsets the oil import
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  shock. Japan imports virtually all of its oil,
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  so the Hormuz situation is a genuine structural
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  risk there. Hang Seng, 24 ,954, down 1 .3%. Hong
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  Kong is taking the worst of it in Asia. China's
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  demand exposure to oil, combined with its own
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  slowing growth signals, makes the Hang Seng the
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  most vulnerable of the major indices to this
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  oil shock scenario. DAX, 25 ,361, down 0 .8%.
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  Germany has its own energy vulnerability, and
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  European markets broadly are pricing in higher
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  input costs for industry. The sector story today,
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  energy is bid. Technology is mixed, NVIDIA is
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  down 2 .4%, Intel down 5 .6%. On the positive
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  side, Skyworks Solutions up nearly 10%, Corvo
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  up 6 .8%, both chip companies with significant
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  exposure to Apple's supply chain. And the market
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  may be reading the Apple intelligence event as
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  more positive for those suppliers than the broader
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  market suggests. This is a day where individual
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  earnings quality matters less than the oil shock
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  narrative. Watch energy and watch whether Brent
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  stabilizes or pushes toward 120. The bond market
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  is the real tell right now. The 10 -year Treasury
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  yield is sitting in the 4 .84 % to 4 .95 % range.
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  That buyback program is designed to improve liquidity
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  in the long end of the curve, but bond yields
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  are still elevated. And the market is signaling
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  it believes the Fed either cannot or will not
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  cut rates anytime soon. Here is the mechanism
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  that matters. Oil at $108 feeds directly into
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  energy components of CPI. CPI printed this morning.
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  The August report. The prior reading was 3 .4
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  % year -over -year, with core month -over -month
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  at 0 .2%. According to the CME FedWatch tool,
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  there is a 62 .4 % probability of a 25 basis
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  point rate hike at the September meeting. The
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  current federal funds rate range is 3 .5 % to
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  3 .75%. A hike would be the most consequential
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  tightening signal in months, particularly against
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  the backdrop of oil -driven inflation and a slowing
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  global growth picture. This is signal level 4.
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  The dollar is strong, and that has cascading
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  effects for every listener carrying a non -USD
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  income. USD to Philippine peso, 62 .48 pesos
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  per dollar, based on data through September 10th.
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  The peso has been trading in the low 62 range
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  for the past week, elevated relative to earlier
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  this year. For Filipino remote workers or businesses
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  invoicing in USD, this is a favorable spread.
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  USD to Indonesian rupiah, 17 ,617 per dollar.
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  the rupiah remains under mild pressure. USD to
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  Thai baht, approximately 33 .0 per dollar. Thailand's
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  DT5, the destination Thailand visa, remains one
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  of the more attractive remote work options in
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  the region. USD to Malaysian ringgit, 4 .03 per
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  dollar. The DE Rantau Nomad Pass program in Malaysia
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  continues to be active, with the government having
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  expanded its eligibility criteria. The ringgit
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  rate makes Malaysia genuinely cost -competitive.
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  USD to Brazilian Real, 5 .13 per dollar. USD
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  to Peruvian Sol, 3 .35 per dollar. The common
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  thread across all of these EM pairs, dollar strength
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  driven by U .S. rate hike expectations, is keeping
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  pressure on emerging market currencies. This
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  compresses the real value of local wages and
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  savings for those holding positions in EM economies.
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  If the Fed hikes next week, expect this pressure
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  to intensify. Bitcoin. $77 ,031 today, down 1
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  .2 % on the day. This continues the pullback
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  from the $79 ,000 range we saw earlier this week.
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  Signal level 2. Ethereum, $2 ,468, essentially
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  flat. ETH is showing slightly more resilience
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  than BTC. Solana, $99 .41, down 1 .6%. SOL has
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  slipped below the psychologically significant
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  $100 level. The macro narrative for crypto right
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  now, Bitcoin's correlation with gold is being
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  widely discussed. Both are off from their recent
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  peaks. Gold is at $4 ,385 today, down about $21
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  from prior session. When both gold and BTC pull
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  back simultaneously in the context of oil -driven
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  inflation, the read is that traders are raising
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  cash, not rotating into traditional safe havens.
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  That is risk -off behavior. If the CPI print
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  comes in hot and the market raises FOMC hike
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  probability further, expect both gold and BTC
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  to face continued near -term pressure. Brent
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  crude, $108 per barrel, as reported by Market
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  Screener and Reuters linked sources. This is
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  not a spike. This is a sustained, elevated level
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  driven by a structural supply disruption. U .S.
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  Iranian military engagement in the Strait of
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  Hormuz has crossed from a geopolitical risk premium
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  into an operational reality for shipping. If
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  Iran formalizes or extends its restricted maritime
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  zone, the next threshold is $115 to $120. At
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  that level, you start to see demand destruction
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  signals emerge from major Asian importing economies.
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  Gold, $4 ,385 per ounce. The pullback from recent
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  highs is consistent with cash -raising behavior
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  in the broader risk -off environment. For globally
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  mobile listeners, oil above $100 feeds directly
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  into aviation fuel surcharges and transportation
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  costs. If you're planning international moves
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  in the next 60 to 90 days, factor in fuel surcharge
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  increases from airlines, likely in the range
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  of $10 to $20 per long -haul segment. Price these
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  in now. Three items for the globally mobile community.
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  Thailand destination, Thailand visa, the DTV
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  remains active and accepting applications. It's
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  a five -year multiple -entry visa with 180 -day
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  stays per entry. And the bot rate at $33 per
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  dollar makes Thailand one of the best cost -of
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  -living propositions in Southeast Asia for dollar
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  -income remote workers. Malaysia DE Rantau Nomad
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  Pass, the Malaysian government has expanded eligibility
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  for the DE Rantau program per the Ministry of
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  Digital Announcement. If you've been considering
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  Kuala Lumpur and at $4 .03 per dollar, you should
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  be. This expansion means more applicants now
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  qualify. Check the Ministry of Digital Malaysia
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  site for updated eligibility criteria. Philippines
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  Digital Nomad Visa, the Philippines DN -5, is
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  operating under Executive Order 86, which authorizes
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  the Department of Foreign Affairs to issue one
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  -year renewable visas to remote workers whose
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  clients or employers are based outside the Philippines.
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  With the peso at $62 per dollar, the Philippines
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  remains one of the highest value environments
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  for dollar income holders in Asia. DV -2027 Update
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  The State Department has announced that the application
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  period for DV -2027 visa winners runs from October
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  1, 2026 through September 30, 2027. The registration
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  window to enter the lottery has not yet been
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  officially announced. Stay alert for the official
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  announcement from the State Department. Three
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  developments to watch over the next 24 to 72
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  hours. Signal 1. FOMC September 15 and 16. The
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  Federal Reserve meets in four days. CME FedWatch
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  is pricing 62 .4 % probability of a 25 basis
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  point hike. If today's CPI August report comes
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  in above expectations, above 3 .4 % year over
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  year, or above 0 .2 % core, that probability
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  will move higher, possibly to 70 % or above.
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  A hot print would hit equities, strengthen the
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  dollar further, and pressure EM currencies. A
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  cool print would offer the Fed cover to hold,
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  and markets would likely rally. This is the highest
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  priority forward signal. Watch for the 8 .30
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  Eastern release and subsequent Fed commentary.
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  Signal level four. Signal two, Hormuz escalation
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  threshold. Brent above 108 means the market has
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  priced in disruption, but not catastrophe. The
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  trigger to watch is any formal Iranian government
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  announcement of a restricted maritime zone or
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  any U .S. military strike that goes beyond tanker
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  -to -tanker engagement. If either happens, the
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  risk premium reprices rapidly toward 120 and
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  beyond. Signal level 4 to 5, watch. Signal 3,
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  Oracle follow -through. Oracle's cloud infrastructure
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  growth of 121 % year -over -year is one of the
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  most significant enterprise technology data points
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  of the quarter. Watch whether Oracle recovers
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  on Monday or continues to track the macro -driven
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  sell -off. If it holds and re -rates higher,
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  the market is beginning to value AI infrastructure
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  winners through the geopolitical noise. Signal
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  level two. That is your ground signal for September
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  11th. I'm Tenet. Stay positioned. Stay mobile.
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  We'll be back.