Latest / FDD Morning Brief / China's MidEast reckoning | feat. Gen. H.R. McMaster

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China's MidEast reckoning | feat. Gen. H.R. McMaster · FDD Morning Brief

0:11
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, good morning.
0:12
[SPEAKER_00]: It's Friday, April 17th, the multi-pronged war in the Middle East is now 923 days old.
0:20
[SPEAKER_00]: That just seems like a lot.
0:22
[SPEAKER_00]: The 10-U.S.E.S.
0:23
[SPEAKER_00]: buyer with Iran is still holding.
0:25
[SPEAKER_00]: And the American blockade of Iranian ships in the state of Formus is in full swing.
0:30
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm your host Jonathan Chanzer.
0:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome back.
0:32
[SPEAKER_00]: Yet again, to the afternoon morning brief.
0:35
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, before we get going with today's guest, we do have to get some headlines knocked out.
0:41
[SPEAKER_00]: So here is what you missed while you were sleeping, or if you don't sleep enough and read too much, like me, here's what you probably already know.
0:49
[SPEAKER_00]: headline one, a 10-day cease
0:50
[SPEAKER_00]: fires now in effect in Lebanon.
0:52
[SPEAKER_00]: President Trump announced the deal yesterday on truth social.
0:55
[SPEAKER_00]: These rallies did not immediately comment on the deal or it's terms, but I'm pretty sure that most of the defense establishment over there is not too pleased.
1:03
[SPEAKER_00]: I think they like the terms of the agreement.
1:04
[SPEAKER_00]: I think they just don't like the agreement being thrust upon them.
1:09
[SPEAKER_00]: It's no small thing to call up thousands of fighters, bring in the fuel and the weapons
1:16
[SPEAKER_00]: The Donald has called it all off.
1:18
[SPEAKER_00]: One official told us really media that IDF troops will remain in South Lebanon during the ceasefire.
1:24
[SPEAKER_00]: This makes perfect sense, and what also makes perfect sense, trying to reach some sort of long-lasting political agreement with Lebanon.
1:31
[SPEAKER_00]: These are our store-times folks.
1:32
[SPEAKER_00]: No matter what you might think of the way this ceasefire was announced, it's a good thing to be on the brink of normalization with a country that was once and about enemy.
1:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, and by the way, if you're wondering whether Israel managed to hammer and up his ball of military targets before the Trump imposed deadline, there were 380 his ball of assets that went boom yesterday before the fighting stop, not bad for a day's work for the Israeli Air Force.
1:56
[SPEAKER_00]: I think they got their message across.
1:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Headline 2, the Treasury Department issued a fresh batch of sanctions, targeting a network of people, companies, and ships involved in illicitly smuggling Iranian oil, Treasury also sanctioned and Iranian national, and three companies linked to a money laundering scheme involving Iranian oil, Venezuela and gold, and ultimately cash for his Bala and the IRG, IRGC, Coodsforce.
2:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, and guess who else was part of this dirty money laundering scheme?
2:23
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, you guessed it, the worst NATO ally ever, Turkey, unbelievable, and yet totally believable.
2:31
[SPEAKER_00]: And now today, our steam ambassador to Turkey is talking about how strong Turkey is, and how deservedly back in the F-35 program, more on that ass amenity in a minute.
2:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, Operation Economic Fury, as they're calling it, and I am a little jealous.
2:45
[SPEAKER_00]: When I was at Treasury, we did not have Operation Economic Fury.
2:49
[SPEAKER_00]: That operation is now in full swing.
2:52
[SPEAKER_00]: So, check back regularly for more insights into the American Economic Warfare Campaign that could potentially do more damage to the regime than any of the bombs dropped over the past six weeks.
3:03
[SPEAKER_00]: You think I'm kidding here?
3:04
[SPEAKER_00]: Try me.
3:05
[SPEAKER_00]: headline three, a group of U.S. senators sent a letter to acting attorney general Todd Blanch, asking him to explain why.
3:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, why did the Trump administration drop a criminal case against Turkey's Hulk Bank?
3:18
[SPEAKER_00]: That's Turkey's second largest state-owned lender, Hulk Bank helped Iran illegally rake in billions of dollars.
3:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Billions with a B, 20 billion in fact, at least through the US financial system between the years 2012 and 2015.
3:32
[SPEAKER_00]: FDD played an important role in exposing that steam, both myself and CEO Mark Dubuets.
3:37
[SPEAKER_00]: It's for that reason that the Turkish media has called me personally a terrorist, a coup plotter, and a member of a sex cult.
3:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay, two out of three of those are false.
3:47
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not going to tell you which one is true.
3:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Anywho, the question posed by these senators is even more important now as new details emerge about Turkey once again moving around through the money and I hope these senators also start to question Ambassador Tom Barak about all the glowing and lovely things that he's saying about the regime in Ankara, while it undermines our war effort.
4:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Good Lord.
4:09
[SPEAKER_00]: headline for Syrian President Ahmet Al-Shara, formerly known as Abu-Bahamat Al-Jolani, is saying that he's struggling to reach some sort of security understanding with Israel, because Israel's war against Iran and its proxy network has been, quote, brutal, which is pretty rich coming from a purportedly reformed al-Qaeda chief, who partnered with the Islamic State, which is brutal, any who.
4:32
[SPEAKER_00]: Al-Shara has been busy, he met with a pair of Kurdish leaders yesterday to discuss the integration of the Syrian
4:39
[SPEAKER_00]: into serious state forces, the SDF is a Kurdish-led US-backed force that helped take down the Islamic state and the Shahra government has been, well, brutal to the Kurds, fierce clashes between the SDF and Syrian forces made way for integration agreement at the end of January.
4:58
[SPEAKER_00]: That was an agreement imposed upon the Kurds.
5:00
[SPEAKER_00]: at the muzzle of a gun.
5:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Yesterday's meeting was maybe a little bit more voluntary and it was intended to move implementation of that agreement forward.
5:09
[SPEAKER_00]: If I were Kurdish, I don't think I would love this deal, but I do suppose that the consolidation of a Syrian state would be a good thing for the stability of the region so long as the state is moderate and responsible.
5:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Stay tuned.
5:24
[SPEAKER_00]: headline five word on the street is that there was a meeting between the U.S. and Hamas in Cairo earlier this week.
5:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Senior Hamas, Psychopath, Khalil, Alhaya, reportedly met with RAA Lightstone, who serves as a senior advisor to the board of peace, as well as the Gaza Board of Peace, high representative Nikolai Malatinoff.
5:43
[SPEAKER_00]: The Trump administration didn't confirm or deny that the meeting took place, but this will be the first direct U.S. Hamas talks.
5:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Since the Gaza Seas fire took hold in October,
5:51
[SPEAKER_00]: The goal remains the same here folks.
5:52
[SPEAKER_00]: It hasn't changed since October 8th, 2023.
5:55
[SPEAKER_00]: We need to see the full disarmament of Gaza.
5:57
[SPEAKER_00]: We need to see the end of Hamas' reign of terror.
6:00
[SPEAKER_00]: And a little late-breaking news here, British police, have descended upon the Israeli embassy in London after some sort of security incident overnight.
6:09
[SPEAKER_00]: But may or may not have involved drones and possibly some sort of toxic material.
6:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Trying to make sense of it all in real time, your folks will be watching and we're going to report back.
6:18
[SPEAKER_00]: All right.
6:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Enough news.
6:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's get to the interview.
6:20
[SPEAKER_00]: Today's guest is HR McMaster, former national security adviser to the president of the United States and a retired three-star general with 34 years in the U.S. Army, including Command roles in Iraq and Afghanistan, he's also an author and he holds a PhD and a McMaster's degree as one of our producers wrote in Military History.
6:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, and he just so happens to serve as the chairman of FDA's Center on Military and Political Power.
6:45
[SPEAKER_00]: He and I caught up yesterday for a pre-recorded interview.
6:48
[SPEAKER_00]: So what does someone who's fought the wars and literally written the history books think about where we go from here?
6:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Have a listen.
6:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome to the FDA Morning Brief, HR McMaster.
7:02
[SPEAKER_01]: Hey, Jonathan, great to be with you.
7:03
[SPEAKER_01]: You're my go-to man every morning, great to be part of
7:07
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, well, I'm thrilled to hear it.
7:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Trying to make sense of the news.
7:11
[SPEAKER_00]: And, well, today, you're our next victim.
7:13
[SPEAKER_00]: You're gonna help us make sense of the news.
7:16
[SPEAKER_00]: So, maybe I'll just start with this.
7:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Are we winning this war?
7:20
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's go on.
7:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, Jonathan, hey, we're one of the war, right?
7:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Because you have to consider what would have happened if we didn't engage in this phase of the 47 year long war as they were building up their magazine depth with their missile drone strike complex to hold Israel hostage to drive the United States out of the region and to hold the Gulf States hostage.
7:44
[SPEAKER_01]: Hey, I think the cost of inaction would have far exceeded the cost of action, especially what you consider that this was, you know, this was really a conventional curtain they were building or shield behind which they were going to, you know, continue to develop a nuclear weapons and an ICBM.
8:01
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, we're winning in terms of degrading their capabilities in terms of making it difficult for them to rebuild, you know, their capabilities, preventing them from
8:13
[SPEAKER_01]: And you of course, it's connected as well to take an advantage of the opportunity to go out for some of their proxies has bullet in particular.
8:20
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, all right.
8:21
[SPEAKER_00]: So I want to get to his wallet a little bit later.
8:24
[SPEAKER_00]: And I want to get to some of these other capabilities in a second, but I do want to ask you.
8:28
[SPEAKER_00]: So you're you're you're a proponent of of this engagement more or less.
8:33
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's say.
8:34
[SPEAKER_00]: the excursion you might say, Joseph.
8:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Yes, maybe that.
8:37
[SPEAKER_00]: This adventure that we're on, right?
8:40
[SPEAKER_00]: But there are those who are saying that this is a misadventure, right?
8:44
[SPEAKER_00]: They're saying that, well, we're degrading our capabilities.
8:49
[SPEAKER_00]: We've got war fighters, they're going to be less ready to go if we needed to, let's say, call them up for a Taiwan street invasion.
9:04
[SPEAKER_00]: I think, look, on the one hand, we've had an unbelievable show of strength.
9:08
[SPEAKER_00]: You can see how the U.S. operates, right, with utterly fality, but on the other hand, are we putting ourselves in a weaker spot for maybe future conflicts?
9:15
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, there's no such thing as a cost-free war, right?
9:17
[SPEAKER_01]: And we've lost American soldiers lives in this war, a disfaced of the war.
9:19
[SPEAKER_01]: But you have to go back like to the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of the United States of
9:32
[SPEAKER_01]: And you know, this whole idea that the critics have about that, it wasn't imminent.
9:36
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, it was an imminent for the 600 or so US soldiers who were killed by Iranian proxies with Iranian manufactured roadside bombs during the Iraq War.
9:47
[SPEAKER_01]: So I see the, all wars come to the cost.
9:50
[SPEAKER_01]: And you're right that we are depleting some of our critical munitions, but hey, this is a wake-up call.
9:56
[SPEAKER_01]: And you've seen what Steve Fiberg deputies Secretary of War is doing to reorganize the Pentagon and reform the Pentagon.
10:04
[SPEAKER_01]: You see the call to US industry now like, hey, come on, get all bored here.
10:07
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's be American, it's not America and start increasing our throughput in our production.
10:14
[SPEAKER_01]: So we can do this, Jonathan, with President's defense budget that he's put forward
10:20
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we have to do it because it is a dangerous, the world is a dangerous place.
10:24
[SPEAKER_01]: But the last thing I'll just say quickly is this theater, the Middle East, is connected inextricably to the competition with Russia and with China.
10:33
[SPEAKER_01]: If we win this war, which I believe
10:36
[SPEAKER_01]: the ultimate objective ought to be a fundamental change in the nature of the Iranian regime such that it ceases, it's permanent hostility to the United States Israel, it's goal-fallized and like the world, you know, and if that happens, you have what's your influence, China, Russia having the least, I think zero.
10:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and then we wind up with the keys to China's gas station, which likes it a lot, held a lot less likely, I think, to be aggressive in an
11:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, well, I mean, it's interesting because the backup gas station, the Russians have already offered to the Chinese that they're willing to fill in the Delta, they're willing to fill in the gap, but I think it's not really what the Chinese want, and I would probably also note that the Gulf states who've been trying to straddle between the United States and the Chinese,
11:23
[SPEAKER_00]: They see what's going on here.
11:24
[SPEAKER_00]: They could see that the Chinese have sided with the Iranians who were bonding them, right?
11:29
[SPEAKER_00]: And that some of those motors that go into the drones that are attacking these coal states, those are Chinese, the precursors for the missiles, those chemicals that also is Chinese.
11:39
[SPEAKER_00]: So you get a sense that yes, that maybe there's a pivot that's taking place on the part of these gold states.
11:45
[SPEAKER_00]: But I mean, here's my question.
11:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Number one is, what does China have in its
11:52
[SPEAKER_00]: back pocket that can reverse some of this.
11:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Do they have the ability to, you know, start to, I don't know, press their advantage, what would that advantage be?
12:02
[SPEAKER_00]: And then, I guess, secondly, when this all just ends, right, in whatever way.
12:10
[SPEAKER_00]: What, where do you see the Chinese then trying to surge again?
12:15
[SPEAKER_00]: Because they're never going to give up on this.
12:17
[SPEAKER_00]: They have aspirations for global domination.
12:20
[SPEAKER_00]: Have they lost the Middle East entirely or is this just the setback?
12:24
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it depends on the outcome.
12:25
[SPEAKER_01]: This is why it's such a consequential campaign or phase of the war with against Iran.
12:32
[SPEAKER_01]: And what they're trying to do now is they're trying to help the Iran as reconstitute, right?
12:36
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it's, I know FDD's track in this, but you've got that massive movement of material down through Pakistan, you know, we've had multiple ships that I hope we're turning around now.
12:47
[SPEAKER_01]: They were helping them with solid fuel for their missiles and rockets, all the precursors for that rushes in that game, too, you know, with these shipments across the cast been seen that the IDF took out, you know, some of those posts associated with it.
13:02
[SPEAKER_01]: So they're trying to keep the regime on life support.
13:05
[SPEAKER_01]: And I would say they're using their client state to pack a standies to try to do everything they can.
13:10
[SPEAKER_01]: to help get the Islamic Republic regime up off the map, you know, and so they really, then your term goal for them is just get them to survive.
13:21
[SPEAKER_01]: Because their influence in the region depends on them being the hedge against Iranian aggressive behavior.
13:29
[SPEAKER_01]: Once that's gone, once there's a Iranian regime that is no older hostile to the region, who's going to have time for the Chinese, you know, is really was only out of the Obama and the Biden administrations that the Chinese gained influence in the Middle East because both those administrations, nobody thought they were going to take military action against Iran and they didn't enforce any of the sanctions, so we gave up economic influence overrun at the same
13:58
[SPEAKER_01]: Who do you have as a hedge, you know, or it will moderate Iranian behavior to Chinese.
14:04
[SPEAKER_01]: That's what they had them come in on the deal to normalize relations between Tehran and and a reod, even after the Omanis and the Iranians broke the deal, because they China cast themselves as the indispensable break, you know, on Iranian aggression.
14:23
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, I got to ask you, and I know you've got thoughts, strong opinions, even.
14:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Pakistan, I mean, how the hell do we let these people become the honest brokers?
14:36
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, honest, I got to put in like lowercase h and air quotes and asterics and all that, right?
14:42
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, they're not honest brokers here.
14:44
[SPEAKER_00]: The idea that you would have a illicit proliferator of nukes and a state sponsor of terror.
14:51
[SPEAKER_00]: being involved in an effort to curb the activities of a elicit proliferator of nukes and a state sponsor of terror.
14:58
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, what planet are we on here?
15:00
[SPEAKER_00]: And how do we, how do we decouple from this?
15:04
[SPEAKER_00]: Is there even a way at this point or are they just, are they in?
15:07
[SPEAKER_01]: Jonathan, I think we've got to come to our senses.
15:10
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I call it serial goalability, you know, and it was one of my biggest frustrations.
15:16
[SPEAKER_01]: You're having served in Afghanistan from across many, many years and this idea.
15:20
[SPEAKER_01]: This was really just, it was a fantasy, really created by Joe Biden and Ben Rhodes.
15:28
[SPEAKER_01]: And the Obama administration, that, hey, the problem of Gareth said, oh, it's really not the Taliban.
15:35
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it's, it's really al Qaeda only in Pakistan, and if we have this long term relationship with Pakistan, and we demonstrate that we're a reliable partner economically and we'll give them assistance, then, you know, the Pakistan leadership, they'll be like the Great Central Christmas Eve.
15:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Their hearts will grow at two sizes bigger.
15:50
[SPEAKER_01]: They'll stop you.
15:52
[SPEAKER_01]: And then I, as I interacted with General Boswa, who was, you know, the head of the Army,
15:57
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, he gave me the normal line from the pack of stains, all their grievances, you know, and you're always asked us to do more.
16:03
[SPEAKER_01]: Today, listen, general, I'm not asking you to do more.
16:05
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm asking you to do less.
16:07
[SPEAKER_01]: Do less to support Al Qaeda and the Haconie network and by connection that the Taliban.
16:13
[SPEAKER_01]: and President Trump initially saw them for who they were, and did duplicity, but then they wh-weeze all the way back in.
16:21
[SPEAKER_01]: And after I left his desk supervisor, he had Imran Khan in the Oval Office.
16:25
[SPEAKER_01]: But my wife came in, I was screaming at the television, she's like, what's going on?
16:28
[SPEAKER_01]: I said, I can't believe that guy.
16:29
[SPEAKER_01]: Isn't this Oval Office?
16:31
[SPEAKER_01]: And of course, look at what he said after the disastrous and deadly self-to-feet and withdrawal from Kabul.
16:38
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, rejoicing in the Taliban's victory in America's defeat.
16:41
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like the gutteries, we have the same kind of, we would have the same kind of self delusion about them as well as they played both sides.
16:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, arsonist and firefighter, and I got to say, I mean, I don't love what I'm seeing out of Pakistan, that the betrayal as it relates to Israel, obviously the history about Al-Qaeda, the history of their illicit nuke, they have this weird strange alliance structure they're trying to create with the Turks and the Egyptians and the Saudis,
17:11
[SPEAKER_00]: I guess they see a new order emerging.
17:14
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the Turks see it the same way.
17:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Actually, I want to ask you about this.
17:19
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you've clearly worked with the Turks before NATO allies, right?
17:23
[SPEAKER_00]: Close allies in the United States, at least on paper.
17:26
[SPEAKER_00]: When I look out right now at what the Turks are doing, I mean, first they're rhetoric toward Israel's gone through the roof, then on top of that you've got, you know, they've got the proxies.
17:37
[SPEAKER_00]: They've got the ability to exert influence all around the region.
17:41
[SPEAKER_00]: What do you look at when you when you're watching the Turks right now?
17:44
[SPEAKER_00]: What's their game?
17:45
[SPEAKER_00]: What are they angle in for?
17:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, their game is to play all sides, to gain it advantage, and they do have an idea, an idea of having, not necessarily hegemonic influence, but a proponents of influence across the Middle East.
17:58
[SPEAKER_01]: The AKP is in Islam as party.
18:01
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it just really is.
18:02
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, people don't want to admit it, but it really is.
18:05
[SPEAKER_01]: And so the Muslim Brotherhood, right?
18:07
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's just call it what it is.
18:08
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, right.
18:09
[SPEAKER_01]: It's sort of this Nakshabandi Sufi kind of ideology that bridge is over in the Salafi ideology
18:15
[SPEAKER_01]: And you're right, it provides the gateway to Johannes Charastronization through the support for the Muslim Brotherhood and the various education activities, but I would call brain-washing activities associated with the Muslim Brotherhood internationally.
18:29
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, they don't have the cash for that, so they've been actually using God-a-rease cash to do a lot of that work.
18:35
[SPEAKER_01]: And so, whereas finally, the Saudis came to their senses.
18:38
[SPEAKER_01]: and they realized that proselytizing, before, could tubasum and wahabism, you know, really got it, has a blowback effect.
18:47
[SPEAKER_01]: Like it is on Pakistan, right?
18:49
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the Taliban who they helped, you know, keep on life supported, rebuild.
18:54
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, I just think,
18:56
[SPEAKER_01]: when we have to do, I think, is have clarity with each of these leaders.
19:00
[SPEAKER_01]: And you know what, I think that's what's most effective, not allowing them to play it both ways.
19:06
[SPEAKER_01]: To be a very clear about, hey, we know what you're doing.
19:08
[SPEAKER_01]: And with Irwin, you know, President Trump is currently a soft spot for like, I don't understand why.
19:13
[SPEAKER_01]: Remember when he went over his body guards are beaten up, U.S. citizens?
19:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe this is the time to really get to right lighten like broad daylight on two ponds circle this does happening.
19:23
[SPEAKER_00]: It's crazy Did you ever have meetings with Turkish officials while you had well like well while you're there with an Bending what many meetings so John yet my line with them was that.
19:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Hey, you know You're drifted away from us.
19:37
[SPEAKER_01]: This is gonna be bad for us, but it's what even worse for you
19:40
[SPEAKER_01]: And I would bring with me the meetings these translations of the Turkish press and all the despair which was controlled by the government basically.
19:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and all the sparraging of Americans.
19:49
[SPEAKER_01]: So, okay, think about other countries that engage in this behavior over the years.
19:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Where are they now?
19:54
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, do you want to join that club, you know, and I organized the trip.
20:00
[SPEAKER_01]: I went, I let a small delegation to we actually met in Istanbul in February March of 2018.
20:09
[SPEAKER_01]: and the idea here was to reframe our relationship, to identify where our interests aligned and where our interests diverged.
20:19
[SPEAKER_01]: And I brought with me a chart that had color-coded in boxes, the interests of key actors in the Middle East.
20:27
[SPEAKER_01]: Russia is real, U-S, goal states, Iran, Turkey,
20:33
[SPEAKER_01]: And where there was an overlap with us in Turkey and where there was the divergence.
20:39
[SPEAKER_01]: We overlap on almost everything, except on Israel, and Lebanon, and Hezbollah, and on our support for the SDF, you know the Kurdish forces in the Northeast from part of Syria.
20:55
[SPEAKER_01]: And the other area was the purchase of Russian arms and Russian arms.
21:01
[SPEAKER_01]: And I said, hey, guys, you know, wouldn't, wouldn't be silly for us, you know, to, for you, for you, to abandon all these other interests, and focus exclusively on where we're diverging.
21:13
[SPEAKER_01]: But unless we get to these two short-term issues, our relationship's just going to be on the rocks, and it's going to be a big problem.
21:20
[SPEAKER_01]: And they didn't believe me when I told him, hey, after 35 programs gone from you.
21:23
[SPEAKER_00]: if your body is as an outer bravish or on the outside looking in.
21:27
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I think they still need to fit.
21:29
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, a lot of this is going to kind of come down to us making demands.
21:33
[SPEAKER_00]: We need to have a different alliance structure.
21:35
[SPEAKER_00]: We need to we need to hold our allies to account.
21:38
[SPEAKER_00]: And if we don't, I think you get a sense now of what happens.
21:40
[SPEAKER_00]: You can see exactly what's happening with them.
21:42
[SPEAKER_00]: You can see what's happened with the Pakistanis.
21:45
[SPEAKER_00]: We call them frenemies.
21:46
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't even think that might even be generous.
21:48
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, allies that act like enemies are in fact enemies at the end of the day if we're going to be honest about it.
21:55
[SPEAKER_00]: I want to ask you, you know, this is all really good background, but I think my question is, it's pretty simple.
22:03
[SPEAKER_00]: We've got to problem in the straight-up hormones.
22:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Everybody knew that we were going to have a problem in straight-up hormones.
22:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Anybody that's ever done a war game, and I know you've probably done 500 of them in your lifetime, right?
22:14
[SPEAKER_00]: So you knew that we were coming to this moment.
22:16
[SPEAKER_00]: What does it look like if the Iranians don't stand down, we don't get all encompassing peace agreement with this ceasefire?
22:24
[SPEAKER_00]: What is necessary for the United States to do to keep this thing open and how risky is it?
22:31
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, it's risky, but it's doable, right?
22:33
[SPEAKER_01]: And as you mentioned, this was not an evil that went unanticipated, you know?
22:38
[SPEAKER_01]: So we had annual exercises, we up to 30 countries here.
22:43
[SPEAKER_01]: And actually the campaign by design put that on the back for that being that the security of this trade of foremost.
22:49
[SPEAKER_01]: So we could go after the regime tours, we could go after their ability to project our outside of their borders.
22:54
[SPEAKER_01]: This is the missile drone, strike complex, the Navy,
22:57
[SPEAKER_01]: and their ability to regenerate those capabilities.
23:00
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, they're a industrial base or defense industrial base in particular.
23:04
[SPEAKER_01]: That's what the campaign was focused on initially.
23:07
[SPEAKER_01]: I think if they try to shut down the straight, continue to try to shut down the straight, I think those leaders that are still alive, you know, they're really only allowed because President Trump has asked these really not to kill them yet.
23:18
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I think, I think they're back on the table, they go back after the repressive arms of the regime, but especially they go after any of the capabilities that can influence the straight.
23:28
[SPEAKER_01]: So you're going to have continuous patrols of, you know, including eight tens of patchy helicopters, for example, because you have still a relatively promise of air defense environment.
23:38
[SPEAKER_01]: But you have kind of them would have a bubble of these escorts, which actually kind of follow behind the taggers and provide the air defense capabilities around them, and it's it's not easy.
23:48
[SPEAKER_01]: You would hug kind of the Omani shore, that's why there is a my clearing operation going on now to make sure that those routes are open.
23:56
[SPEAKER_01]: But then you have, you know, very few seconds really to engage any incoming missiles in that sort of light, but once they show that, you know, then we go out from will we have to take over some terrain, maybe with land force is possible.
24:10
[SPEAKER_01]: The question for me, the job that I had is we can do it.
24:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Do we have the will to sustain it.
24:14
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think.
24:15
[SPEAKER_01]: we have to sustain this effort because I'm not just of the view, there's not going to be peace until there is a fundamental shift in the nature of this government.
24:24
[SPEAKER_01]: How that shift changes is that the fissures we see in the government now, right with the with the RGC leaders, you know, scolding Gallaboff and you know, and Arachie and tell them to come home right away because they're giving up too much.
24:37
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, can we work those fissures or is it going to be a popular uprising?
24:44
[SPEAKER_00]: it does.
24:45
[SPEAKER_00]: And so my last question for you even very generous with your time.
24:49
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a deal that I guess is on the table, right?
24:53
[SPEAKER_00]: We're hearing about it, J.D.
24:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Vance is saying that they're close, and that they need to say yes.
24:58
[SPEAKER_00]: What does a good deal look like if you have the regime still in place?
25:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Is there anything that we can negotiate here?
25:04
[SPEAKER_00]: If you are a national security adviser, again, and you're sitting in the oval and you're telling these principles, this is the deal that you want.
25:12
[SPEAKER_00]: What does that deal look like?
25:14
[SPEAKER_00]: Or is it a bad idea to get into a deal with this regime in the first place of it leaves it in power?
25:19
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's bad if I think it's good to follow the deal.
25:22
[SPEAKER_01]: I feel like, oh, you're an absolute, I'm telling you, that that's just a reality.
25:27
[SPEAKER_01]: The reality is, if that regime remains in power, what are they gonna do?
25:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Do it to try to reconstitute their capabilities.
25:33
[SPEAKER_01]: They're trying already, right?
25:34
[SPEAKER_01]: We see them moving missiles.
25:36
[SPEAKER_01]: We see them digging down into the tunnels to get access to more drones.
25:41
[SPEAKER_01]: and missile capabilities, you know, we see the Chinese, we supply efforts, we see the Russia resupply efforts, even with some air defense.
25:48
[SPEAKER_01]: I think maybe that's where we lost aircraft too, and the northern part of Iran.
25:52
[SPEAKER_01]: So hey, what's that student required us to do?
25:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Is to then go after them as they try to reconstitute.
25:59
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's a continuation of the war.
26:01
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think if you get a deal with this regime, you get a pause.
26:04
[SPEAKER_01]: You don't get peace.
26:07
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's probably right.
26:09
[SPEAKER_00]: And then I guess well, maybe I'm going to head fake you.
26:11
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to give you one more.
26:12
[SPEAKER_00]: Is there an economic war that you think would ultimately bring, I mean, this is what we're talking about, right?
26:20
[SPEAKER_00]: That we answer into a new phase.
26:22
[SPEAKER_00]: It's sort of hybrid, right?
26:23
[SPEAKER_00]: So there's maybe some kinetic strikes, but we probably reached a point of,
26:27
[SPEAKER_00]: mostly diminishing returns.
26:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Then comes a question of like all the economic tools that we have in our tool kit, the treasury stuff, the bank stuff, but also strikes on things that are valuable to the regime, kinetic strikes.
26:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Is that enough?
26:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Or does it really have to be boots on the ground top of this regime?
26:45
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it has to be boots on the ground, but maybe could it be Iranian boots on the ground?
26:49
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, after you continue to start during the past season, the RGC, I mean, do we have elements that are operating with inside of a ran now, I hope so, you know, helping people organize.
27:00
[SPEAKER_01]: And we, I got to remember, I wish President Trump would talk more about this, you know.
27:04
[SPEAKER_01]: how they murdered 40,000 of the real people to 48-hour period, you know?
27:08
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so, I mean, how can there be peace after that?
27:10
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you think the Iranian people are gonna be kind or accepting of this regime staying in power?
27:16
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think that was maybe largely by design that mass murder, is to assure, hey, if there's anybody who's thinking about making the deal with the Iranian people here within the regime, think twice because you're gonna become at, come after you.
27:26
[SPEAKER_01]: So,
27:27
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that, hey, it's got to be the regime has to go.
27:30
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know how it happens, but we should be doing, we should evaluate everything we're doing, Jonathan.
27:35
[SPEAKER_01]: By whether or not it contributes to or detracts from that long-term objective to essentially incentivize, support, and site, you know, a change in the nature of that government.
27:48
[SPEAKER_00]: All right.
27:48
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's a great way to leave it on a thank you, HR McMaster, for joining us today on the FTE morning brief.
28:00
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, and just like that, it's mic drop time.
28:03
[SPEAKER_00]: If you want to feed your brain with smart articles on foreign policy this week, this weekend, rather check out fdd.org for that.
28:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Also, please read my latest long read over commentary magazine.
28:15
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm trying to answer the question of what victory looks like when your enemy refuses to surrender.
28:20
[SPEAKER_00]: That should sound vaguely familiar right about now.
28:23
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28:37
[SPEAKER_00]: So you first thing on Monday, we'll find out if not one, but two sea spires are still holding.
28:42
[SPEAKER_00]: The suspense is already killing me.
28:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Until then, have a great weekend.
28:45
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm Jonathan Shanzer signing off for FDD.