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Week 5 College Football Picks You Gotta See! · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

0:00
So yeah, I I cut that out. Hello everybody.
0:03
Welcome to Karting winners week five of the college football
0:07
season. Tim down here in Jacksonville
0:10
with Darren and Pete. Peter, how you doing?
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Not too bad. Good to be here, good to be back
0:15
this week. Excited to make some picks and
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get my record moving in the right direction here so looking
0:19
forward to today. Back from vacation?
0:21
Did you buy any Christmas decorations?
0:24
I I did, I did not that that is definitely Darren's job to buy
0:28
Christmas decorations. So yeah, you should ask him
0:30
about his. Darren from upstate New York,
0:33
how you doing man? I'm good man, good to be here
0:36
and much like Pete, let's try and rebound.
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We all went two and one two weeks ago and we followed it up
0:41
by each of us going one and two. So yeah, let's alternate and get
0:45
back on the winning track. I blame Baylor.
0:49
I I blame Iowa for scoring 38 points out of nowhere.
0:52
What was that? 38 points this year, so I don't
0:55
know what that was like. I literally just settled down to
0:57
relax and I was watching the Tulsa game and Tim texted me.
1:00
He's like, it's 2 minutes in and it's seven to seven.
1:02
I'm like, what? Like that's supposed to be
1:05
halftime. Like we had a Show on turf all
1:07
of a sudden up there in Iowa. I did not see that coming.
1:12
I'm telling you what. Some we should watch out for
1:15
with with that Utah game, the odd start times, you know, with
1:20
that 10:00 AM local time start, that may have something to do.
1:22
I mean, techs, I mean, tech kicked the crap out of them.
1:24
I don't think it mattered, but it could be something to look
1:28
into when you make the bets in the future.
1:30
So yeah, for. Sure.
1:31
It's funny that you mentioned that, Tim, because two of my 3
1:33
plays, part of the handicap was start time.
1:40
Yeah. Bum, bum, bum.
1:43
Spoiler alert. Like a teaser or something.
1:45
I don't know what the hell that even means, but yeah, I just.
1:48
Well, watch this. I even got a stack, God darn it,
1:52
to back it up. So guarantees me another one and
1:55
two week. But let's.
1:56
Go yeah well the start time kept me from betting obviously
2:00
Florida State, Virginia, I was looking at that game a lot and
2:03
I'm not going to touch it. But Friday night games, Thursday
2:08
night games, especially with Virginia, they would have first
2:10
seen the beat FSU in ACC playback 20-30 years ago.
2:14
Whatever with Tiki Barber and the Hell's his brother's Grande?
2:19
How do you even remember that 20-30 years ago that.
2:23
You, you just, you just brought that back to my memory.
2:25
I remember that now. I remember where I was, I was
2:28
drinking coffee and I was so shocked.
2:30
I dropped the mug and it shattered so.
2:34
Well, let's not doom your team tomorrow night already, so let's
2:37
just. Say no, no, no, definitely.
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Yeah, definitely don't want to do that.
2:42
So should we just pop into our picks and see what's going on
2:45
here? Dive in.
2:46
Let's go first pick. This one is 1 of mine.
2:50
This is basically, you know, this is a fate of UCLA and we
2:57
talked about it a little bit. I remember last year with fading
3:00
Florida State the whole year after week one, we would have
3:03
been right 9 out of 10 times. So I'm just doing this again for
3:08
the rest of the year. I am fading UCLAI know they're
3:10
getting 6 1/2 points. I know Northwestern sucks too,
3:15
but they're at home. They got the 2, two time zone
3:18
travel and all that. Yeah.
3:22
I just, with everything that's going on there now, I don't see
3:26
UCLA winning if they win. I, I think if I just do this the
3:30
rest of the rest of the year, I'm going to be, I'm going to
3:32
win a lot more of these bets that I'm going to lose.
3:34
I don't know if you have any thoughts.
3:35
I did no research on this. Whatever.
3:37
It's just a blind fade of UCLA. Well, I mean, both these teams
3:42
are not good, right? Over under is 44 1/2.
3:45
I considered the under on this. I was definitely leading the
3:47
under because I, I don't know what Northwestern's going to do
3:50
to to score much at all. And UCLA, to your point, is, is
3:53
fading. Plus Northwestern's defense is
3:56
actually pretty good. Ish, right, So ish right.
4:01
So, you know, I, I mean the team that's not very good in offense
4:03
playing a decent defense. I mean, I, I was leaning pretty
4:06
heavily on the on the under here, but I did not play it.
4:09
But yeah, I see a low scoring game here.
4:12
Any thoughts Darren on this one? Yeah, I actually had looked at
4:15
this game and and considered playing it, but you guys
4:18
basically covered everything. UCLA defensively terrible.
4:23
They're not taking the ball away.
4:24
Nico has been a bust up to this point and man, I don't know what
4:28
the hell is wrong with Preston Stone, but after 2023 he has
4:32
just become I don't even know he I mean 6 picks already.
4:37
I'm just like I I can't trust Northwestern because of that,
4:41
but I think they're gonna win. But I just have if they don't
4:44
turn the ball over, yeah, they should win this one by 14.
4:47
You know, I I'm a big believer in the in the multiple time zone
4:50
thing. So so I don't like this spot for
4:52
UCLA. The reason I didn't fire with
4:55
you here is I just Preston Stone's like a a disappointing
5:00
stepchild, man. He just does not.
5:03
I believe earlier this week when we were texting the term you
5:06
used was ass. I did but then when the site
5:11
made the shorts it actually put ass in quotes for one of our
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shorts so I'm trying to avoid that.
5:17
I've already and I've already failed so.
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I guess if. It doesn't and it makes another
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short with the word ass in the title.
5:25
I just won't post it. But yeah, I mean, I, I I agree
5:29
with both of what you guys said, Pete Spot odd Notre Notre Dame,
5:32
good freaking. God.
5:34
Northwestern. Defense, yeah, I mean, their
5:36
defense is ish, but that's way better than anything UCLA has
5:39
put out on the field so far. And what do you what do you
5:42
expect from the Bruins after the coach gets fired?
5:44
I mean, I I don't know, are they going to rally or do they really
5:47
suck that bad? It doesn't matter if they rally.
5:50
I don't know. But but credit to you and your
5:53
your big 10 balls for betting this game because I could not
5:57
bring myself to do it. But I like where you're going
5:59
because initially I was going to lay the points with Northwestern
6:01
as well. I saw a story that Nico may,
6:04
there's rumors of him transferring to Texas Tech next
6:07
year or some. Maybe sometime this year.
6:09
He may just 'cause they did it in Week 3, right?
6:11
He got fired in weeks. I mean, he's got 30 days, so he
6:15
he doesn't have to wait till he doesn't have to do it before
6:18
Week 4, even though that's passed now.
6:19
So he's still got 30 days at least from when Foster got let
6:23
go. So Yep, I think he thinks that's
6:26
just a bad look. He's gonna have to stay there.
6:29
Right. All right, then we're going to
6:31
move on to 1 of yours. We got Georgia Tech and Wake
6:34
Forest. Yes, Speaking of games, I'm not
6:37
super confident in here. I did lay the 13 1/2 with
6:41
Georgia Tech. It's fourteen in a lot of
6:43
places. I did have to to pay some -120
6:45
juice at FanDuel for this year. I just like Georgia Tech's
6:50
strength of schedule up to this point compared to what Wake
6:53
Forest has has played. We all know the Haines brothers
6:57
on Georgia Tech, Haines King and Jamal Haines.
7:00
They should have incredible success running against Wake
7:02
Forest here. Now, I was impressed with
7:05
Georgia Tech going to Colorado and winning the opening week,
7:09
even though Clemson is kind of that word that you tell me I'm
7:13
trying to stop using. Yeah.
7:15
Still, it was an impressive win the way they got that field goal
7:18
unit out there in less than 15 seconds.
7:20
That was pretty cool. They must practice that every
7:25
day. No issues there getting all
7:27
eleven of those guys out. But I mean, you know, Georgia
7:30
Tech strength schedule is 74th, Wake Forest is 200 and second.
7:33
So yes, that means there are dozens of FCS teams that have
7:36
played harder schedules than Wake Forest up to this point.
7:40
I just see a game where this may be close, you know, at halftime,
7:45
but then maybe Haynes King and Jamal Haynes can kind of put
7:48
this one away. The only thing that gave me
7:51
pause was Wake Forest is coming off a buy.
7:53
You know, they are at home. You know, Georgia Tech doesn't
7:56
have to travel too far here. But anytime you get 14 days to
8:00
prep for an opponent, that's an advantage over somebody who's
8:02
only got 7. But I I just think Georgia Tech
8:05
has a much better roster here. You know, again, this might have
8:09
been a number play. If it was 14 at all the books
8:11
that I've got, maybe I would have left it alone.
8:13
But yeah, I, I, I got a one unit play on Tech here.
8:17
I think they get this done. Yeah, I agree.
8:19
I can see that happening. Just yeah, like you said, the
8:23
Haynes brothers are they're good.
8:24
This whole team is, you know, I thought they would take a step
8:26
back a little bit offensively with Singleton leaving to
8:30
Ortigo. Auburn, I think.
8:31
Yeah, Auburn. He went to Auburn so.
8:34
They seem to be chugging right along some some run defense
8:37
issues of their own. I mean, they gave up almost 160
8:39
yards rushing to Kennesaw State in a in a home game that they
8:41
won 10 to 9 and NC State ran wild on him.
8:45
Two weeks ago. Hollywood Smothers had like
8:48
almost 170 yards by himself. So you know, assuming Haines
8:52
King gets through all four quarters without getting
8:55
destroyed or concussed, you know this should be at least a 17
8:58
point win here. Any final thoughts Peter on this
9:01
one? No, I agree over under 50 1/2.
9:04
I, I considered, I kicked the tires on it.
9:06
I mean, Georgia Tech's I think has the better roster to
9:08
Darren's point, I thought, I think Wake's gonna get behind.
9:11
And the reason I consider the over is 'cause that Wake tends
9:14
to play pretty fast when they're trailing.
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So that's could very well lead to additional points on either
9:19
side. So I think there's AI have a
9:22
slight lean on the over. I did not play it, but it's,
9:24
it's intriguing. But I do think Georgia Tech, I,
9:26
I like that bet. I think they're gonna cover that
9:28
easily. Pete, keep talking.
9:31
We got Houston and Oregon State. All right, all right, so over
9:36
under is 47 1/2. I'm I, this is like my highest
9:41
confidence pick of the week here.
9:45
You know, Houston plays a slower kind of run heavy type of type
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of game. Oregon State.
9:51
I mean, they did not look good last week.
9:53
They did virtually nothing against Oregon, which was
9:56
another one of my plays last week, which bit me in the
9:58
backside because they didn't score.
10:01
I don't expect them to do a heck of a lot more this time over So.
10:05
And I see just red zone on both sides.
10:09
Explosiveness has been lacking. Lots of field goals, punts, that
10:12
type of thing. We could see some damned
10:15
condition conditions possibly or maybe wind, which could, you
10:18
know, once again suppress scoring.
10:20
So a lot of things here lead me to think that the score is going
10:24
to be suppressed in this game. And I I, you know, so from that
10:27
perspective, that 47 1/2 was pretty juicy to me.
10:31
So I did, you know, I could see something like a 2717 game or 24
10:35
to 13, something like that. So I, I actually think under,
10:39
but pretty, you know, pretty solidly under as well.
10:42
So I did but one unit on the under at 47 1/2.
10:48
Hey, Darren. Any thoughts with that?
10:50
Yeah, I agree there. I I love Houston this year.
10:54
I believe they were my surprise team in the conference.
10:57
I think offensively they're really good and I think
10:59
defensively they're still almost as good as they were last year.
11:02
Oregon State has got issues. That may be another hot seat
11:06
candidate out there. Trent Bray, I believe his name
11:09
is, could easily be fired before too long.
11:11
They've just shown nothing. I I haven't watched enough to
11:16
see if maybe they look like a team that might be just giving
11:18
up on the season. But that effort against Oregon
11:20
in a rivalry game leads me to believe that that there's just
11:23
nothing here that this they may just be waiting for December to
11:26
call it a call it a season. But yeah, I don't see Oregon
11:29
State doing too much. So, yeah, an under.
11:31
I like that play. Yeah, some of the team, you
11:33
could probably fade really. I mean, if you think about it, I
11:35
have to check with their how they've been against the spread
11:37
so far this year, but I can't imagine it's good.
11:39
So beat another one to check out.
11:43
All right, I got to go into another one of mine here.
11:44
We got Mississippi State and Tennessee.
11:47
Let me see if I can get the right pick up there.
11:51
Yeah, this one I went back and forth with, you know, I was
11:55
really thinking about playing over so, but I, you know,
12:01
obviously decided again. So I'm going to go, I'm going to
12:02
take Tennessee and I'll lay the points.
12:05
I'm expecting them. I I think they can get out
12:07
early. If they can get up and get out
12:10
early, especially in the second-half, their their pass
12:13
rush could take over. I'm expecting maybe a scooping
12:15
score or something like that to get up over to 7 1/2.
12:18
It started at 10 and now that I got it at 7 1/2, it makes me
12:22
feel feel pretty good about it. Like I said, the pass rush is
12:27
going to make a make a big play. They could play a big part in
12:32
the game. They can make life suck for the
12:33
quarterback there. What's it Stapen?
12:35
Is that his name? Yeah, shape and whatever.
12:40
He's not going to have a good day, no matter how much cowbell
12:43
they have. Also, it's not much of A stat,
12:47
but they don't want to lose 2 in a row.
12:49
I mean, you certainly can't go in there, especially in the SEC.
12:52
You can't go even though one is, quote UN quote, a good loss.
12:57
If there's such a thing. They would say, well, they lost
13:01
to Georgia and overtime, but yeah, you don't want to lose 2
13:04
in a row. That could affect your playoff
13:05
hopes. Like I said, it opened at 10.
13:07
I got it at 7 1/2, so I played Tennessee minus the 7 1/2 on the
13:13
road. What do you think guys?
13:18
Again, the balls are ginormous. I wouldn't want any part of this
13:21
game. I went.
13:23
Back and forth. I almost if, if my other choice
13:26
wasn't the Florida State Virginia game, I probably would
13:28
have, you know, would have played that one and said I'm
13:30
not, I'm not touching FSU. Yeah, I, I mean, credit to Pete,
13:34
one of his futures bets that already hit is Mississippi State
13:36
over the 3 1/2 win total as they sit at four and O currently.
13:41
I I just remember when I was on vacation, they had that late.
13:44
Yes, Congrats. That shocking win over Arizona
13:51
State. I I don't know, man, there must
13:54
be an hour in the cowbell. Yeah.
13:56
I mean, I think when when it's 10, now you come off at 10.
13:59
I mean, I bite it, and maybe if it goes to seven, but a lot of
14:02
sevens and a half. But I see you're juiced, meaning
14:06
like it's heading back up to 8. So yeah, if this was on the RPO
14:12
it would be like Looney Tunes when they run through the wall
14:15
and the hole is the silhouette of the actual.
14:16
Person running to get right. I wouldn't want a man.
14:21
Credit to you bro. You'd be like 2 Big 12 games
14:24
last week and then the game so far this week.
14:28
I don't want any parts. I mean, I mean one and two
14:34
though last week. So I mean, I, I like the bet.
14:37
I mean it, I mean logic would say that Tennessee is going to
14:40
step up and step back and win this game.
14:42
I, I would think so, even with, you know, Mississippi State
14:44
playing well and all that. Yeah.
14:46
I mean, I like, I like the bet. I, I think, you know, maybe
14:48
something like a 30 to 20 game would not be shocking.
14:52
So yeah, that would fit into that, into that category and I
14:54
think would make sense. So I, I like the bet.
14:56
I I didn't really look at it in that in that regard, but it
14:59
makes sense to me. All right, Well, making sense.
15:02
I like that. All right, Darren, we got one of
15:06
yours coming up. We got Cal and Boston College.
15:09
Yeah, so much like you, you're fading UCLA.
15:12
This is kind of a fade of Cal here.
15:16
I am not a fan of Bill O'Brien or what BC is bringing to the
15:19
table defensively so far this year.
15:22
However, their quarterback Dylan Lonergan is pretty legit.
15:25
He's got almost 1000 yards passing already in a nine to one
15:29
TD to interception ratio and they need it because they can't
15:32
really run the ball either. So why am I laying almost a
15:36
touchdown here in this conference game?
15:39
Couple reasons. First of all, we talked about
15:43
the the travel. We talked about that a lot
15:47
couple weeks ago. Cal hosted, or I'm sorry,
15:50
Stanford hosted Boston College, Boston College all the way
15:53
across the country, turned the ball over three times, lost 30
15:56
to 20, you know. Yeah.
15:59
And then Stanford this past week flies all the way across the
16:03
country to Virginia and loses by 4 touchdowns.
16:07
So you have Cal here who actually started out better, I
16:10
think, than a lot of us thought they would.
16:12
We kind of, we kind of bashed them in our ACCP and rightfully
16:15
so. They had pretty much a mass
16:16
exodus of the entire roster. But everybody was kind of
16:20
talking Cal when they beat Minnesota.
16:21
And that was actually a pretty good performance from them last
16:24
week. However, at 14 1/2 point
16:27
favorite against lowly San Diego State, not only did they not
16:31
cover that spread, not only did they not win the game, they lost
16:35
34 to nothing. And I have a feeling that that
16:38
may be the Cal that we thought we were going to get coming into
16:42
this season. So now Boston College coming off
16:45
a bye, they're at home. Their last 40 conference games,
16:48
they're 26 and 14 against the spread, if you're into that kind
16:51
of thing. Found that like an hour ago.
16:53
Thought I'd check that in there. But yeah, this is, you know, and
16:56
the travel is a huge part here. This is a 330 game, which means
17:01
it's a 12/30 body clock game for Cal.
17:06
I think what we saw last week is is closer to the Cal team that
17:09
we expected more than what we saw when they beat Minnesota.
17:12
So I don't really trust Boston College, but again, I I don't
17:19
see how Cal gets up for this game after that beat down last
17:21
week. And I like that BC in conference
17:24
play is is pretty solid bet. So again, at six, again, if it
17:27
was 7, maybe I avoid this, but 6 1/2 I'll take the home team that
17:32
didn't have to travel anywhere. Yeah, he had me at the home off
17:36
a by and the the Cal travel. So that's all I really need.
17:39
To odd because I'm not betting Wake Forest to his home off a by
17:45
and you put Georgia Tech against all three of these teams.
17:48
I think Georgia Tech steamrolls them all.
17:49
Oh yeah, yeah, yeah. Of course, but you know, you
17:52
have to consider the opponent. But that San Diego State game
17:55
was telling. I think that's the Cal we all
17:57
know and love. Any final thoughts with that
18:01
one? Peter?
18:01
No. Excellent bet.
18:02
I mean over under is 52 1/2. I seriously considered going
18:05
under. I think that number feels really
18:07
inflated to me. I don't know what Cal's going to
18:08
do, if anything at all, but I certainly expect so.
18:11
I would not be surprised to be like a 30 to 10 win for BC
18:15
still, that's way under all right.
18:17
So for me, I think this under is pretty solid as I almost bet it.
18:21
I'm leaning very heavily under here.
18:24
So I, I wouldn't blame anybody if they if they bet the under in
18:27
this one because it makes a lot of sense.
18:28
But I, I chose not to keep. On moving, Peter, keep talking.
18:34
Say something intelligent. That's going to be hard.
18:37
I don't do that very often, but I can do my best.
18:40
So LSU, Ole Miss, yeah. So over under 54 1/2.
18:47
Yeah. So I guess you can see on the
18:49
bottom of the screen already. I, you know, I took the over 54
18:52
1/2 here. Ole Miss is going to push the
18:55
tempo, especially at home. They're going to push the tempo.
18:58
So there's going to be a lot of plays.
18:59
I would expect a lot of scoring, you know, either for them or
19:02
them or them making mistakes and LSU capitalizing on that.
19:06
LSU has been relatively explosive.
19:08
Their offense has been relatively balanced.
19:11
They don't they don't just grind it out.
19:12
They throw the ball too red zone TD right on both for both teams
19:17
is actually pretty good. They're both pretty highly
19:19
efficient in the red zone, You know, defense, you know, they're
19:22
both they're both OK, but neither is a lockdown unit,
19:25
right? So I do think the offense on
19:27
both sides is going to have a pretty good day.
19:30
So, you know, to me, and now that, you know, 54 1/2 looked a
19:33
little, looked a little enticing.
19:35
I mean, I could see a pretty close game, something like a
19:38
3431, you know, 3828, something like that.
19:43
And to me, those are all over. So it made a lot of sense here.
19:46
So I'm going over 54 1/2. Many thoughts, Peter.
19:52
Aaron, by the way, but I mean he betting an Ole Miss over.
19:57
What were the odds? Who saw that coming?
19:59
That was the last beer when I did it 4.
20:02
Hours, but you did it like 5 times so yeah yeah I.
20:07
I don't know how much you believe in like, side things
20:09
that mean nothing, but Lane Kiffin's daughter dating the LSU
20:13
linebacker. Lane just seems like the kind of
20:16
guy that's going to stick it to his own kid.
20:17
If he can put up 40, he's going to he.
20:20
Will. I mean, LSU can't be this bad
20:23
offensively. I mean, one of these days
20:24
they're they're going to get in the 20s and it very easily could
20:28
be this weekend here. But I can see, I don't know what
20:31
the line is here, but I could see Lane doing everything in his
20:36
power. And I guess Simmons isn't
20:38
starting, but the guy who filled in last week actually did really
20:42
well. So I don't see a drop off Ole
20:45
Miss offensive performance at all.
20:47
So yeah, if LSU could add anything to this, I I think this
20:51
one will will get into the 60s. Yeah.
20:54
Yeah, I still don't like Lane Kiffin.
20:56
I'm not touching any on this game.
20:59
The rest of the the rest. Of the all right, so this one
21:04
this is one of mine. This next one big game for me
21:07
for a lot of reasons. Well, first of all, my big
21:10
future bet plus 6000 on Washington.
21:13
So to win the big 10, the line on them actually moved down to
21:19
2200 from 6000. So that's pretty cool.
21:24
I think, and this one is going to come down to the both teams O
21:27
lines. We need a big game for you know,
21:31
Damon Williams there number two. I hope he does well because all
21:35
counts is that he's a really good kid.
21:37
There is a travel, Washington is a tough team to play.
21:42
They do. They do have some kind of win
21:44
streak going at home. They haven't lost at home in
21:46
probably a year and a half, maybe two years.
21:50
I think for a lot of the country, this will be the first
21:53
time watching Washington this year because, you know, that's
21:56
especially in this part of the country.
21:57
But the East Coast and everything, a lot of people are
22:00
hit in the hay after, you know, three or four other college
22:03
football games except for people like us.
22:06
But. Oh, at that time I'm still
22:08
hitting the hay as well, but. I'm still up.
22:12
I did not even see kick off of your Michigan State USC game
22:15
last week that started at 11:00, by the way.
22:16
Yeah, some of us hit the hay way before that.
22:20
So I saw, I was, I saw a kick off and I was in and out of
22:23
consciousness. So the game was on.
22:24
I was, you know, middle of the first quarter.
22:26
Then next thing I know it's half time.
22:28
Then next thing I know it's, you know, started the 4th and I
22:31
watched the rest of the game from there.
22:32
But yeah, I think also with with Ohio State and the Texas games,
22:40
the same thing with FSU and the Alabama games, they seem like it
22:43
was forever ago. It does.
22:45
You know, it's like, you know, FSU had two cupcakes and a buy.
22:49
I think Ohio State had a couple cupcakes in there.
22:52
It's like who knows what they're going to be doing, but as soon
22:55
as they do have the new quarterback.
22:57
So I do not sure about the point spread.
23:01
I do like the over. So it hasn't moved all week.
23:05
It's been stuck at 52 1/2. I think the Mon Williams is
23:09
going to have this offense ready to go.
23:11
I think they're going to put up a lot of points open.
23:15
Washington pulls this one out. It'd be great.
23:17
And you know the country would be introduced.
23:20
I'm sure you are too, Pete. You're open this up.
23:24
Washington pulls this out too. But I'm expecting either way,
23:28
something like a 41 to 38, you know, 3836 final score, the last
23:34
team to have the ball, probably to win here.
23:36
Darren, the floor is yours. I, I kind of lean Ohio State
23:43
here. I mean, I, I just don't know in
23:45
the Washington secondary since anybody worth a damn went to
23:47
North Carolina to die over there in, in Chapel Bill, I don't know
23:52
who's stopping Jeremiah Smith in this game.
23:54
This could be a, a A9 catch 220 yard 3 touchdown day for him.
24:00
But to that point, that means Damond Williams is going to have
24:03
to do something similar. So where where you hit Texas A&M
24:06
and Notre Dame over at like halftime last year, you could be
24:11
pretty close to that to your 52 1/2 by halftime this year.
24:15
I, I don't know if Damond will be able to, to keep up
24:20
offensively here. I still like what Ohio State's
24:23
got on the field there. If I, if I had to pick a side,
24:25
I'd take Ohio State, but 52 1/2 does seem kind of low here for,
24:31
for this. So yeah, I, I, I'm on board with
24:33
that pick, definitely. Yeah, agree 100%.
24:35
I love, love that bet. Just a little behind the
24:38
curtain. I start every week by looking at
24:40
every game. Then I narrow it down to five,
24:41
and then I bet on three. This was #4 right, So I was.
24:45
I'm heavily leaning on the over here.
24:47
I think it is the Buckeyes can score any which way they want to
24:51
and they're going to right. So they're going to score a lot.
24:54
That's not in question. So if they're score 3840,
24:57
whatever they're going to score. Washington needs to make the
24:59
difference. I expect them to score a bunch
25:01
too. So I fully expect a high scoring
25:04
game here, a whole lot of snaps, all how to all movement.
25:08
I mean, I think, yeah, this this is going to be a easily, I think
25:12
into the 60s without question for this game.
25:15
So I I love this over. I would have played it but I
25:17
purposely limit myself to three or else this would have been #4
25:20
So love to bet on board. What was the the over line on
25:25
A&M Notre Dame game? Wasn't that 52 1/2 as well?
25:29
Or was it 54? Hold on.
25:33
Two weeks ago. I know it's it's very similar
25:35
game. I'm under this, yeah.
25:37
I would love for this to hit by halftime.
25:39
Those are the best kind and you have to worry about it.
25:41
You can sit back and enjoy the game.
25:42
You don't have to sweat anything.
25:44
They'll be at least 40 by halftime and you can just cruise
25:47
in the rest. You'll be fine.
25:51
Yeah. All right, Dan, we got your
25:52
third play of the week. Speaking of backing another team
25:55
and no defense, I am on Air Force here and and I get it,
26:00
they gave up 49 to Boise last week.
26:02
They gave up 49 to Ustah State the week before that.
26:04
But to be fair, both those teams are actually not terrible.
26:09
So if you haven't followed Air Force, and who would blame you
26:11
if you hadn't, they made a quarterback switch a couple
26:14
weeks ago. The gentleman by the name of
26:16
Liam, and I'm probably pronouncing his last name wrong.
26:19
Zarka SZ Yeah, whatever, but I'm going to go with.
26:22
Sorry I didn't get the. Numbers, you know, I mean, it's
26:26
gotta be Zarka. I mean, how the heck else can
26:28
you pronounce that name? But last week against Boise,
26:31
dude had 246 passing yards, 110 yards rushing, and actually
26:34
helped the Air Force put up like, what, 3739 points against
26:37
Boise here? So while this team defensively
26:41
so far has struggled, I'm gonna chalk some of that up to to the
26:44
two good teams that they've actually played so far.
26:47
And despite the 246 yards passing, they only threw the
26:50
ball 20 times. They still ran at 55.
26:53
This is still the Air Force that we all know and love.
26:56
Why this is a problem for Hawaii, multiple reasons.
26:59
And Pete, I, I know you're on Hawaii.
27:01
This is not a, a slight tier over 5 1/2 bet.
27:04
There's just some things here about Hawaii that, that, that
27:06
that don't like lead me to believe that they're going to be
27:11
close here. First of all, they're already
27:13
three and two. That means they've played five
27:15
games already. Barely anybody else has played
27:18
more than four. This team will get a buy after
27:21
this, but they have got to be somewhat beat up.
27:23
This is going to be their 6th game in six weeks.
27:26
Of those five games form of a been at home.
27:28
The other time they went on the road they played at Arizona,
27:31
also a good team, but lost 40 to 6.
27:34
They just do not have the athletes to keep up with some of
27:37
these schools. Again we talked about travel.
27:43
This is a 4:00 Eastern game, which makes this a 2:00 mountain
27:47
time game for Air Force, which makes this a 10:00 game.
27:52
Hawaii time. Now I've never lived in Hawaii,
27:54
but I'm pretty sure if I did, the last thing I would want to
27:57
be doing at 10 AM is getting ready to play football.
28:01
So again, there's that travel. And if you wonder why you're
28:03
always talking about travel stat time since all this realignment
28:08
gave some crazy at oh damn, I said it again, some crazy travel
28:11
scenarios for some of these teams since last year up to this
28:14
week, upcoming teams that have travelled more than three hours
28:18
out of their out of their norm 19 and 35 against the spread.
28:23
For those of you who didn't go to the crappy high school that
28:26
the three of us went to, that's only 35%, which means these home
28:30
teams are covering almost 2/3 of the time.
28:33
So at with 54 games as a sample, that's not like these teams are
28:37
two and seven. I mean, there's some significant
28:39
results here to that. Also one of Hawaii's biggest
28:43
rivals, Fresno State, I don't know if anybody watched last
28:47
week's game and again, wouldn't blame you if you did because
28:49
Hawaii was the home team. They lost 23 to 21 to Fresno.
28:53
Hawaii got the got a touchdown with 10 seconds to go, screwed
28:57
up the two point conversion. So now you've got the travel,
29:01
you've got a quarterback, Aalajado, who's not 100%.
29:04
Ever since he got hurt in that Stanford game, he has just not
29:06
looked like himself. So again, the travel, the beat
29:10
up quarterback, the the emotional let down after that
29:15
loss that we talked about last week.
29:18
West Virginia beating Pittsburgh two weeks ago in their backyard
29:22
brawl, you know, down 10 with 5 minutes ago tying it up, win it
29:25
overtime. They went to Kansas and got
29:27
destroyed. So I believe there is something
29:29
to that as well. So and also Hawaii in five
29:32
games, they don't even have 500 yards rushing the ball yet.
29:35
Anybody want to guess how many rushing touchdowns they have
29:37
this year? I'll give you a hint.
29:39
The three of us have as many as Hawaii does.
29:41
That's correct. They have yet to get a rushing
29:44
touchdown in five games, which almost seems like like how does
29:49
that even happen? That can change against Air
29:52
Force and their crappy defense, but I just think there's enough
29:55
here. And again, 6 1/2 it's not 7.
29:58
I I wouldn't, I might not want to play the seven it just in
30:01
case of a, a freak backdoor push here.
30:04
But there is a lot going against Hawaii here.
30:08
I'm not saying Air Force's defense is going to get right
30:10
here, but offensively Air Force looks really, really good.
30:14
And I don't think Hawaii's not the athletes to keep up here.
30:17
So this was almost a 2 unit play for me.
30:20
But yeah, when you give up 98 points in your last two games, I
30:24
just can't get there for that. But give me Air Force here, man.
30:28
I think Hawaii's going to have a tough go of it this weekend.
30:31
Yeah, I agree. Could not, could not agree more,
30:33
actually. And and yeah, I love me some
30:35
Hawaii, but at home, right when I made the argument for the
30:38
schedule at home, they're dangerous because of the travel
30:42
on the road. Forget it.
30:43
I mean, they're going to get pummeled.
30:45
I I gave them no chance in this game, to be honest with you.
30:48
Over under 53 1/2. I thought about it.
30:50
I figured Hawaii might, you know, wheel out.
30:54
I don't know, 1417, I wouldn't expect much more.
30:58
So that kind of leans under for me here because, yeah, Air Force
31:01
is going to score, but they run the ball, it's going to clock.
31:03
So I think they're easily and handily going to beat Hawaii.
31:07
But I do think that under is a little bit enticing.
31:09
I'm not playing it, but I did toy with it a little bit.
31:12
But yeah, I just, I just decided to to punt on that.
31:16
OK. And our last pick of the week,
31:20
Peter. So Alabama, Georgia,
31:25
interesting, interesting, interesting.
31:27
So over under 53 1/2, you know, I am leaning heavily into the
31:35
fact that when these big SEC teams play each other,
31:39
especially teams that are constructed like Georgia is and
31:42
like Bama is, you know, they, you know, they're obviously NFL
31:45
caliber depth across the board. That's not surprising, but these
31:50
coaches on these teams tend to be a little conservative in
31:53
tight games. I expect them to run the ball #
31:55
the ball, try to beat each other up, which they're going to do,
31:58
which means if you're doing that, and I expect kind of that
32:02
suppressing the number of stat snaps in the game.
32:05
Also, with both of these teams, there's been a high chance of,
32:07
you know, there's been a quite a few stalled drives in the red
32:10
zone leading to field goals and such and not touchdowns.
32:13
It's just a lot in this game leans to me toward and under
32:18
like I would not be surprised of like a 2421 kind of game here,
32:22
which obviously is way under right, that number.
32:26
So I don't think they're going to break 50.
32:28
So I really do like this number quite a bit.
32:31
I feel very confident. This is my highest rated one
32:33
this week, actually, so feel pretty good about this one.
32:36
I think it'll be a slugfest. It'll be interesting, fun to
32:38
watch, sure, but I don't think it's going to be a scoring fest.
32:41
So anyway, that's my thoughts. Is is that where college game
32:44
day is where where are they this week?
32:47
I didn't look, but I would assume so.
32:50
Yeah, I I'd love for them to be at the Ohio State Washington
32:53
game or maybe the Penn State. Penn State, Oregon might be
33:01
there. So does this game.
33:02
If Bam will win, does that get get Caitlin Dubois off the hot
33:05
seat? You think?
33:07
Official help. It'll help.
33:09
I mean, I mean, if they show well and they play well, I,
33:11
yeah, I, Well, if they win, I don't.
33:13
Know but they they win. Yeah, I don't know about totally
33:15
off the hot seat, but certainly I think that the the, the he'll
33:18
get turned down a little bit. So that would not be surprising.
33:21
I think if they win, he can tell.
33:22
He can tell everyone to shut the F up.
33:23
I think if he if they're going to.
33:27
State College this week. Is that correct?
33:29
Yeah. State College.
33:30
Penn State, no surprise, Yeah, the white out and all that.
33:33
So yeah, that'll be that'll be good.
33:36
Any thoughts with this one there?
33:38
I I kind of like Bama here. I don't really know why I can't
33:42
put my finger on it, but something telling me Bama, a
33:46
little money line Sprinkle might not be a bad player.
33:50
I think it's around 3 or 3 1/2. You can get 3 1/2, maybe take
33:53
the points. But something about Kirby Smart.
33:56
He's got all kinds of problems with Alabama.
33:58
And I get that was mostly with Nick Sabin on the other
34:03
sideline, but he just seems to have some kind of problem
34:05
dealing with Alabama. And I, I kind of think I'm a
34:08
little more pro Ty Simpson than I am Gunnar Stockton.
34:12
I, I just don't think the, the Georgia defense is, is what
34:16
we're used to seeing. So I do think this will still be
34:19
a like a, you know, 2010 SEC ugly 2117 kind of thing.
34:27
But we wouldn't surprise you one bit if Alabama's the one with 21
34:31
and winning this one outright. Me either.
34:33
I I think that makes a lot of sense.
34:34
I would not be surprised either going into Georgia money line.
34:38
I like that. That's not bad all.
34:41
Right. All right, guys, let's just jump
34:43
right into our RPO segment. Hey, before we get started, I
34:47
didn't put it on there because there are a lot of big names on
34:50
there, but tonight, East Carolina Army for anybody who's
34:53
going to watch in a little bit that just needs some action.
34:55
Anybody have a thought because I do not.
35:00
I I looked at it, I was leaning under.
35:01
I did too because I was going to send one of you guys money if I
35:04
could find something enjoyable like I I got nothing.
35:07
I may, I may play it for both of us because I saw that I was
35:09
like, yeah, 52 1/2 seems like a high, a big number for this
35:12
game. It feels like it's going to be,
35:13
obviously it's just going to be, I think a grind of a game.
35:16
I would not be surprised if it's pretty well under that number.
35:18
So that's another one that I think kind of leans in.
35:22
All right, RPO segment, first game, Florida State -7 at
35:26
Virginia tomorrow night. God, I hate this game.
35:30
Hard pass. I will be speaking heavily and
35:34
drunk texting you guys I'm sure by having.
35:37
Come on, you're, you're, you're already jinxing your own team
35:39
here. That's not good.
35:41
I, I, I so forget the overrun. It's 59 1/2.
35:44
That's a high number. I mean, I'm actually leaning
35:45
over that. I think I think your team is
35:47
going to, is going to play very well.
35:49
I, I, I, if I was an FSU fan, I'd feel pretty good about about
35:52
tomorrow night. But that's just me.
35:54
We'll see how it plays out. Yeah.
35:56
I mean, I want to take Virginia for no other reason just to
35:58
aggravate the living hell out of you, but I.
36:01
Think. I mean, I think Florida State
36:03
should cover this here. I love Chandler Morrison, what
36:05
he's brought, the Virginia offense.
36:07
I still not a fan of that defense though.
36:09
I think Florida's taking cover this all.
36:12
Right, Notre Dame -4 1/2 at Arkansas.
36:15
I would run and lay the points at Notre Dame.
36:17
I know what you guys are thinking.
36:19
They better win this game and they better cover that number.
36:22
They have to. I mean, they have.
36:23
I mean, we need to see something.
36:25
They have to. Darren, no pay.
36:29
No, you're matching my thoughts on the sort of state game.
36:32
Yeah, that's fair. That's a fair statement.
36:34
All I know is I I got a feeling like Marcus Freeman is in the
36:37
press saying he backs Chris Trash.
36:39
I know his last name's Ash, but Notre Dame Twitter Chris Trash
36:44
and he's saying, yeah, it's this.
36:45
It's this. It's not him.
36:47
I got a feeling Marcus Freeman is all over that defensive game
36:50
plan this week. Now, Arkansas had that crushing
36:54
loss against Memphis last week. Speaking of a hot seat, guys,
36:57
Sam Pitman might be on one if he doesn't have a good showing
37:01
here. The 4 1/2 scares me.
37:03
Laying points with Notre Dame's current defensive prowess also
37:08
scares me. But like Pete said, man, if
37:11
they're going to put it together, it it better be now.
37:15
It has to happen. I think they will.
37:18
Honestly, I think they're going to look really good.
37:20
That's just my prediction here. I think they're going to look
37:22
great, but that's. Me US C -, 6 1/2 Illinois.
37:26
This was my fourth game out. I would run to the tape the
37:30
window. I take Illinois to points, home
37:33
team travel. I think this is one of those
37:37
trap games where everyone's going to look at last week's
37:40
game. I think they're going to get off
37:41
the mat. I'd like Illinois.
37:43
They belong on the mat. They're overrated.
37:45
I'm just, I don't know what this total is.
37:48
I'd go over here because USC can't play defense either.
37:53
But yeah, I would pick USC to cover.
37:55
I would go over yeah, whatever you can do player props bet on
38:00
my via to go over whatever the hell he's got can't do that in
38:04
New York. I think Illinois is a fraud.
38:07
Indiana, I believe, exposed them pretty hardcore last week.
38:12
Yeah, I I don't care the US CS travelling to Illinois bet the
38:16
over first lay USC little half unit or whatever.
38:20
But yeah, mount on Illinois, yeah.
38:23
I agree. I think India exposed them for
38:25
sure. I mean India, Indiana had their
38:27
way with them over 60 1/2 in this game pretty high over but I
38:31
think it's going over. I agree.
38:33
Absolutely I'm. Definitely going over on that.
38:35
USC might score 50 themselves, so.
38:37
Yeah. I mean, Illinois is not going to
38:38
be like, hey, This Is Us. They're going to put out some
38:40
kind of offense because USC will let them because their defense
38:43
is terrible. But yeah, this could be a Tim
38:46
special where it's like 2824 at halftime and you're just waiting
38:50
for, you know, 10 more points in the third quarter to go to bed
38:54
or go have dinner or whatever. But yeah.
38:57
Indiana -7 1/2 at Iowa. With the new high octane offense
39:02
we saw last week, I think I would still take Indiana if I
39:07
was going to bet this one. I didn't look at this one, but
39:11
heavy lean. I'm not quite running up to the
39:12
window yet, so right now it's a pass, but I could see myself
39:15
being talking to Betting Indiana here.
39:19
I mean, up until this past week, I would have been all over the
39:24
under on this. It's 47 1/2 and Iowa at home.
39:28
That defense, I would expect them to control Indiana and they
39:32
showed they can score a little bit, but I would expect a low
39:35
score. I would have expected a low
39:36
scoring game and Iowa winning. Now, I don't know what the hell
39:40
to expect. I don't know that.
39:41
Game last week. No idea what Iowa did last week.
39:44
No idea. I'm perplexed by both of these
39:47
teams. So I got nothing.
39:49
Eric. I would have.
39:51
I'd be running right behind Pete away from the window here.
39:56
Yeah, Iowa's offense was courtesy of a crappy Rutgers
39:59
defense, so put in however much stock into that performance you
40:02
want. The seven and a half obviously
40:05
scares me. You know, I got a nice plus
40:09
money bid on Indiana over 8 1/2 wins.
40:11
So the Illinois thing was nice, but it wouldn't surprise if they
40:15
gave it back right here and Iowa somehow pulled off this upset.
40:19
I would not touch this game with with your guys money.
40:23
Just right, Auburn plus 6 1/2. They're at Texas A&M, another
40:27
big game for me, but they all my Texas A&M bets hoping for a big
40:31
game from Marcel Reed. This is almost an automatic
40:35
play, but I didn't bother to do it.
40:37
But I would I would go to the window.
40:38
Texas A&M give the six 6 1/2. I think they beat Auburn at
40:42
home. I agree that's likely to happen.
40:46
I'll take that six and a half. I mean, I think Texas A&M
40:52
defensively, what what have they done this year?
40:56
Yeah, no, nothing. I mean, Auburn got sacked 10
40:59
times last week and still took a took a safety with like a minute
41:04
to go to not cover the the six points against Oklahoma.
41:08
If this gets to seven, I would totally fire on Auburn here.
41:14
But I'm not against taking the 6 1/2 or dare I say, money line
41:19
sprinkle #2. All right, game of the week,
41:25
Oregon plus 3 1/2 at Penn State. This could be like a James
41:31
Franklin fade and just run through the window and bed.
41:32
Oregon. But that's my initial thought.
41:39
But Penn, say, does look pretty good this year.
41:42
I got to say, he may have enough talent there.
41:44
Not even he can mess it up. So yeah, yeah, I mean, with all
41:49
the bad coaching, we could see a crystal ball, Franklin.
41:52
Can you imagine it'd? Be fantastic.
41:57
Yeah. What do you guys think?
41:59
Penn State at home, night, white out.
42:02
Tough, tough environment to play in.
42:03
I don't care how good you are. That's a tough place to play
42:06
against a really good team. Yeah.
42:09
I mean, I, I Penn State should win this game.
42:13
I didn't touch this thing. It's going to be a great game to
42:15
watch, but Penn State should win this game.
42:18
I, I don't it could. It's going to be a great game, I
42:20
think. But yeah, I don't know.
42:22
They're. Everybody on Penn State that had
42:26
the option to leave came back this year and and this game is
42:29
one of the reasons why they did. Penn State's got to get it done
42:33
here. I don't care about Franklin's
42:35
crappy record against ranked teams.
42:38
This this is it. If they do not win this game.
42:43
I mean, we said it a million times.
42:45
If not now when this is it, man, they got it.
42:49
And like Pete said, white out prime time, You know, Dante
42:53
Mall, the most experienced quarterback in the world.
42:55
I mean, you've got the roster to just.
42:58
Pummel him double digit. These guys, I mean, you got two
43:01
of the best running backs in the country.
43:03
Just run them. Don't let Drew Allard do
43:05
anything. Just yeah, just make sure he
43:07
turns around the right way and hands it off to the right guy.
43:09
Just. Just just punch this.
43:11
Has got to be Penn State. So if they.
43:13
Lose if we just got down to three.
43:17
Dude, if this gets down to three, I'm going to bet Penn
43:21
State. Nice.
43:23
Yeah, I like it. Well if they lose, we'll have to
43:25
get Mark on speed doc with coach's hot seat and see if his.
43:28
What time is that game? Is that 7?
43:30
3030, yeah, it's usually 7:30, I want to say.
43:34
All right, I work Saturday if I hit any, because all my games
43:37
will be done by 7. So if I'm two and one or better,
43:41
yeah, like that's going to happen.
43:43
Yeah. I'm going to add a comment to
43:44
the video whether or not I fired on Penn State, if it.
43:47
So if I'm two and one, the spread goes to three.
43:50
I'm on Penn. State I'll make the bet for you.
43:53
I'm hitting two. OK.
43:55
All right, we're going to wrap this up.
43:57
My picks for this week, some review.
43:59
We got Tennessee -7 1/2 over Mississippi State.
44:03
I have the over 52 1/2 for Washington and Ohio State, and
44:07
I've got Northwestern the year long fate -6 1/2 over UCLA.
44:13
Darren, what you've got? Georgia Tech -13 1/2 over Wake
44:16
Forest, BC, laying 6 1/2 over Cal and Air Force also laying 6
44:21
1/2 over Hawaii. There, Peter.
44:26
Yeah, Bama, Georgia, expect a punch in the mouth fest here
44:29
under 53 1/2, not 53.3, Houston, Oregon State under 47 1/2 and
44:36
LSU, Ole Miss, they're going to score 150 points, so we're just
44:40
going to go over 54 and. 1/2 All right, well, that's going to
44:44
wrap up this week for Week 5. Thank you all for listening.
44:48
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44:51
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44:53
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44:55
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44:58
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45:00
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45:05
better. Thank you all for listening and
45:07
we'll catch you next week.