Latest / The Rand Report: Sports / Preseason Tape Don’t Lie: Allen, Tua, and the Real Cuts

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Preseason Tape Don’t Lie: Allen, Tua, and the Real Cuts · The Rand Report: Sports

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  Preseason tape doesn't lie. It just hasn't finished
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  talking yet. Josh Allen is already connecting
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  with DJ Moore. Keon Coleman scored the first
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  touchdown at the new Highmark Stadium. Tua Tagovailoa's
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  Atlanta debut was rough. Rookies are flashing,
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  depth players are making statements, and the
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  soft narratives are already forming. Welcome
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  to the Rand Report. I'm Jim Rand. NFL Preseason
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  Week 1 is in full swing. Games are rolling across
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  the country, results are coming in by the hour,
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  and the only thing that matters right now is
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  who is competing when the lights are on and the
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  roster cuts are real. Let's start in Buffalo,
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  brand new Highmark Stadium, first preseason home
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  game for the Bills. Josh Allen is under center
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  for limited series and the offense looks sharp
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  right out of the gate. On the first play from
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  scrimmage, he hits Khalil Shakir for a chunk
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  gain down the field. Then DJ Moore, the new number
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  one receiver the bill's acquired from the Chicago
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  Bears, gets his first official touch as a bill
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  and turns it into 33 yards. Later in the same
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  sequence, Keon Coleman hauls in a touchdown.
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  That is the first score in the new building.
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  Allen's eyes light up on the sideline watching
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  the play develop. That is not just a highlight
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  reel for social media. That is early chemistry
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  under live pressure against an opposing defense.
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  Allen does not need preseason snaps to prove
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  he is still elite, but the supporting cast does.
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  More needed to show he can still separate and
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  finish after a disappointing statistical year
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  in Chicago. Coleman needed to show he can be
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  reliable in the red zone and in scramble drills
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  when the pocket breaks down. Early returns look
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  promising. The Bills are treating these snaps
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  like they matter because the depth chart is not
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  finished and the competition for the final 53
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  spots is very real. Now shift south to Atlanta.
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  Two Otagovailoas first action in a Falcons uniform.
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  Two drives. Three of five for 22 yards. A fumbled
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  shotgun snap that set an early tone. 24 total
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  yards on eight plays. The Broncos defense was
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  physical and disruptive. The Falcons starters
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  around him were limited by design. Drake London
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  barely played. Bijan Robinson did not play at
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  all. Michael Penick Jr. is still not full go
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  after knee surgery and remains a question mark
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  for the competition. Still, the tape is the tape.
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  Tua looked uncomfortable in the pocket. The timing
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  with the receivers was off. The pocket presence
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  was not sharp under pressure. This is a quarterback
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  competition, not a coronation. Kevin Stefanski
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  needs clean looks at who can operate the offense
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  when the defense is coming. Early returns from
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  Tua are not the ones Atlanta hoped to see. That
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  does not mean the season is over in August. It
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  means the competition is real and the soft narrative
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  that Tua simply walks into the building and takes
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  the job without challenge is already under stress.
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  This is exactly what pre -season is for. Not
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  final scores that nobody remembers in October.
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  Not fantasy projections built on two series of
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  limited snaps. It is for evaluating who competes
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  when the pads are on, the crowd is watching,
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  and the stakes are actual roster spots. Rookies
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  across the league are getting their first real
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  opportunities. Some are flashing and forcing
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  coaches to move them up the depth chart. Some
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  are learning the hard way that NFL speed and
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  complexity are different from anything they faced
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  in college. Depth players are making plays that
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  force the coaches to keep them when the cut list
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  gets written. Injuries are already thinning rooms
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  and changing plans. Nick Scouton for the Panthers
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  is out for the season with a knee injury. That
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  immediately changes the edge rush picture for
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  Carolina and opens opportunities for others.
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  Other players around the league are dealing with
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  hamstrings, ankles, and the usual training camp
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  wear that turns into pre -season caution. Roster
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  cuts are coming soon. The 90 -man roster becomes
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  53. Every missed tackle, Every dropped ball,
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  every mental error in these games gets logged
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  and reviewed. The soft narratives, he's a camp
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  standout, he's the future of the franchise, this
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  trade was a steal on day one, get tested against
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  actual live competition against people who are
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  fighting for their jobs. Josh Allen connecting
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  with Morin Coleman is a positive data point.
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  Tua's limited production is a data point that
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  has to be answered in the next two weeks. Rookie
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  running backs averaging six yards a carry against
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  live defense is a data point. Defensive backs
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  making plays in the secondary and forcing turnovers
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  is a data point. The ones who treat these games
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  like they matter are usually the ones who survive
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  the cut. The ones who treat them like meaningless
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  exhibitions are the ones who get surprised when
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  the final roster drops and their name is not
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  on it. There is always a temptation to overreact
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  to preseason. One good series becomes, he's back
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  to form. One bad series becomes, he's done and
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  should be cut. That is noise and it is usually
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  wrong. What is not noise is the competition level
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  itself, who is physical at the point of contact,
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  who is decisive with the ball in his hands, who
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  is prepared and knows the assignment, who is
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  making the people around them better in real
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  time instead of waiting for someone else to make
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  a play. Buffalo is showing early chemistry on
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  offense in a brand new stadium with new weapons.
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  The connection between Allen and Moore is the
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  kind of thing that can change the ceiling of
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  an offense if it holds up. Coleman's touchdown
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  in scramble conditions shows the kind of playmaking
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  that wins games when the structure breaks down.
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  Those are the details that matter more than the
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  final score of a preseason game. Atlanta is showing
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  that the quarterback situation is not settled
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  and will require more evaluation. Tua has the
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  experience and the arm talent. He also has a
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  history of dealing with pressure and timing issues
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  when the protection is not perfect. Stefansky's
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  staff will use the next two weeks to get more
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  clean looks and more data. That is the right
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  approach. Rushing to declare a winner in Week
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  1 of the pre -season is how teams create long
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  -term problems. Across the league, depth battles
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  at every position are being decided one series
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  at a time under the lights. Running backs are
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  fighting for carries, receivers are fighting
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  for targets, linebackers and defensive backs
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  are fighting for snaps in the rotation, special
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  teams' contributions are being weighed more heavily
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  than most fans realize. The players who understand
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  that every snap is an audition are the ones who
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  usually find a way onto the final roster. Preseason
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  does not crown champions. It does not hand out
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  trophies. It reveals who is ready to compete
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  for a job when the real games start in September.
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  It shows who has prepared, who has the toughness
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  to respond to adversity, and who treats the evaluation
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  period with the seriousness it deserves. That
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  is the only standard that matters right now.
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  The soft narratives will keep coming from every
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  direction. They always do. The tape will keep
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  talking. It always does. Pay attention to the
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  ones who are actually competing when it counts.
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  Those are the players who will still be standing
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  when the cuts are made and the regular season
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  begins. This has been The Rand Report. I'm Jim
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  Rand. Less hype. More truth. Until next time,
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  keep competing.