Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 74: 5/19 Will Rain Return? The Forecast Midwest Ranchers Need Right Now

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74: 5/19 Will Rain Return? The Forecast Midwest Ranchers Need Right Now · CattleUSA Daily

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  Happy Monday everyone. Welcome to another episode of
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  the Cattle USA Daily podcast. Today we are bringing you back
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  another Monday weather episode with Gary Lezek and the Weather
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  2020 team. Bringing you guys some drought
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  talk today, what we're seeing with rainfall predictions for
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  some summer heat waves, talk about the rest of spring, what
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  we're going to be seeing, what we're thinking there as far as
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  that prediction models go and just the breakdown of the
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  weather cycle and what cycle we're on, what we're looking at.
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  All of that fun jazz. And as always, Gary and I
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  recorded this on Friday, so we're bringing you guys that
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  Friday energy to hopefully get you guys started on your Monday
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  off on a good note. So without further ado, let's go
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  ahead and jump into this episode with Gary.
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  Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily podcast, your go to source for
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  the latest livestock markets, industry insights and the update
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  shaping agriculture today. I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a
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  passionate advocate for agriculture here to keep you
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  informed and connected. Now let's dive into today's
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  episode. Gary, happy Friday.
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  It's Friday. We're we're loving it.
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  Is it really Friday? It's Friday.
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  It is. It's crazy this this is airing
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  on Monday. It is airing on Monday.
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  It's Friday for. Us though, and it will be really
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  good moods for Monday. Yes, I love it.
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  I love it, I love it. Well, you have something to say.
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  What's your inspirational quote? Well, my, my, it's not a quote.
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  It's like, have you read the Four agreements by Don Miguelo
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  Ruiz? Ever.
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  I've not. You Have you ever even heard of
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  it? No.
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  Oh my gosh. I need to go read it apparently.
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  There's like there's honestly, this is like 10 segments worth
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  of content, but the the first thing is 4 agreements.
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  This is this is really how to be happy in this world is 1, Be
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  impeccable with your word, 2. Don't make assumptions. 3, Don't
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  take things personally and #4 always be at your best.
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  And you and I were talking before the show about how you've
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  had a hard week. And I said, did you do your
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  best? You go, yeah, I really did my
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  best. Yay.
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  That's the final one because all you can do is your best.
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  When somebody says I'm going to give my 120 percent, 110%, I'm
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  like, no, you're not. The most you can give is 100%.
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  When an athlete goes, I gave 110%, that's probably why you
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  failed. You went too much, you did too
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  much. But that's the last agreement.
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  The first agreement is be impeccable with your word and
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  impeccable means without sin. And it was.
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  Don't lie to yourself or others, OK?
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  Just tell the truth. Sometimes it's hard to do, OK?
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  And the easiest thing is look in the mirror and tell yourself,
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  oh, I love you to yourself. Don't mind because you better
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  love yourself, OK? OK.
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  And that's a hard thing for all of us to do.
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  And then we lie to ourselves all the time, being impeccable with
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  your word, without sin, without lying to yourself.
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  Try watch you go, go through the day and watch what you do to
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  yourself. You say mean things to yourself.
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  Oh, you're so stupid. What?
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  How? That's what you tell yourself.
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  You're so stupid. We can do that daily.
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  What a horrible thing to do to yourself.
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  So the first agreement is to be impeccable with your word.
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  So that's what we'll start and we'll go over the assumptions
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  and the don't take things personally because I have a
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  problem. I take things personally all the
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  time and and then I have this look on my face and it leaves me
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  vulnerable, very vulnerable. Anyway, that's that is that my
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  inspirational is first start to the four agreements by Don
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  Miguel Ruiz. We will spend another hour on
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  it. I'm going to go read it.
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  I love it. I I'm.
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  Here for that. It's a short book.
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  Even better, I love that it's, you know, short attention.
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  Stands. Yeah, you'll love it.
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  Straight and to the point. See some books these days,
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  Here's my issue with like the personal development book space
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  right now, right? I read a lot of them.
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  I love them. I'm a big fan of them.
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  Have been for years. Some of them need to be 100 page
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  books and they're 300. I'm like, we could have
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  condensed this guys. Like, let's get to the point.
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  Read the four agreements, it's a short book and it'll blow your
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  mind away and we can go over it maybe next week.
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  I love it, Absolutely. Well, what's happening in the
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  weather, Gary? The weather is absolutely
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  fascinating, All right? And I'm doing my best.
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  I'm doing my best at the weather, OK.
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  And so that's all I can do. The weather pattern is cycling.
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  It's cycling regularly. It's absolutely fascinating.
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  Storm is coming in right now. Here we are.
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  This is airing on Monday, and there's a storm coming in with a
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  severe weather risk. Do you know what's amazing?
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  Kansas City is the target for Sunday night or Monday night
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  right now. And what happened in the first
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  cycle of this year's pattern? And when we talked about the
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  LRC, no matter how much you buy into it and learn more about it,
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  it absolutely is a major scientific discovery.
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  And So what is the LRC? The pattern sets up in October
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  or November. The first cycle happens, and
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  then the pattern repeats over and over again.
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  If there's a major storm and I can show it to you on the upper
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  level wind flow and at the surface and it's impacting the
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  chance of a major storm being there in the second cycle, 1/3
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  cycle, 1/4 cycle, 1/5 cycle, or right now in the sixth cycle is
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  very high. The pattern is nearly 100%
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  accurate. In cycling, predicting the
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  weather for each location is difficult.
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  So my point is, in the first cycle on October the 24th, there
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  was a severe weather localized outbreak right over Kansas City,
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  the north side of the city, between Kansas City at the
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  airport to Topeka, KS and not the South side.
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  It's sort of just missed the South side.
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  In fact, the South side hardly got any rain at all, but an inch
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  of rain fell at KCI Airport October 24th this year by
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  December, by the end of December, early January, we've
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  been showcasing that it's a 41 day cycle, 40 to 42 centered on
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  41 and really broadly in the range of 38 to 44 days.
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  So 41 days. What is May 18th coming up on
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  Sunday, May 19th, today that we're talking compared to
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  October 24th, it is 205 days later, 5 cycles, 41 * 5 exactly.
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  So this severe weather set up an outbreak that's going to happen.
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  Will Kansas City get hit again? Probably.
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  Let's see what happens. But this is right on schedule.
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  It's the May version. So of course there's a
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  significant severe weather risk right now and then that's going
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  to blow on by. So my point is the pattern is
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  cycling. So yes, we're going to have some
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  severe weather. Northern Missouri suddenly
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  popped up into the drought monitor as AD 1D2 drought
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  developing. So we're expecting about two
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  inches of rain in northern Missouri today and from last
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  night into the next couple of days and that would probably
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  wipe out that drought that's starting to develop.
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  Kansas had a whole bunch of rain a week ago and now this storm
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  sort of blowing by and dry. We are still predicting the
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  phase one part of the LRC to return around the last week of
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  May into the first two weeks of June.
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  We've said this in every report. Not only is the weather pattern
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  cycling, what I say continues to cycle over and over again.
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  We tend to say the same things. It's not like other forecasts
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  were here, major heat waves, then you say no heat waves, you
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  know, they go all over the place.
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  The other forecasts go all over the place.
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  Whereas we are a consistent message.
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  I want Lauren, I want no drought.
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  So I tend to try to be optimistic.
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  But there will be areas that struggle with dry conditions and
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  some crops may fail. We're all in the Corn Belt.
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  I think we're going to be fine for the season, but there will
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  be some areas, Kansas and Nebraska we got to watch, OK,
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  then maybe that's only 10 or 20% of the Corn Belt, but a 10 or
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  20% failure would still impact corn prices, right, and soybean
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  prices and and wheat prices etcetera.
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  I don't expect widespread failure.
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  So maybe it's only a 5% or 10% impact on the corn prices, but
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  just know these are the things that we're discussing and going
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  over. That's my opening statement.
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  Yes, a great opening statement if I do say so myself.
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  As far as drought conditions go, what we're going to kind of be
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  seeing, what do we want to dive into today?
• 9:38
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• 10:01
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• 10:03
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  to learn more today. Well, just just as I said, the
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  northern Missouri area again, they just popped out all, it's
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  been dry. Kansas City until right now as
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  of when we're recording this on Friday, had 58 hundredths of an
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  inch of rain in May. And now that's been into the
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  east, we're getting a lot of what's called Evapo
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  transportation, transportation, transportation.
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  Oh my gosh, tough word. What's happening is, is, is, is
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  drying out 58 hundredths of an inch of rain.
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  The average for the whole month of May is 5.32.
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  So Kansas City's 5 inches of rain in the last two weeks just
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  to get the average. Now it it very well may do that.
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  And tonight's a chance of thunderstorms.
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  Last time we had some rain and thunderstorms and severe
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  weather. So, so it's starting to happen,
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  but there's going to be some concern areas for drought.
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  Most of Nebraska's looking better right now for the next
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  few weeks. So we'll see, but we're still
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  concerned about a few spots, yes.
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  For sure, as we look out into the next couple weeks, what are
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  some highlight things that we're seeing as far as the cycling
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  patterns go, as far as just weather prediction all around,
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  what are we kind of seeing? What happens there's there's a
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  reason why the end of May and early June is climatologically.
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  That means on average climatologically the wettest
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  time of the year. So in many spots in Nebraska and
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  Kansas, in Missouri and Iowa. The reason for that is the jet
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  stream has yet to retreat. N for summer.
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  Summer settles in around June 20th.
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  That's the first day of summer severe weather season typically.
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  Tornado season typically ends towards the end of June.
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  There is still severe weather during the summer.
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  The probability of tornadoes goes down because there isn't as
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  much wind aloft. So before the jetstream shifts
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  north May and June, there's enough flow and the humidity is
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  increasing because the longer days and the storms are getting
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  a little bit weaker. So all of a sudden little
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  disturbances that in January may produce high clouds in late May
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  and June will produce thunderstorms.
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  So there's a big difference there.
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  So that's why we're going into that climatological what is time
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  of the year. And it happens to be coinciding
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  with that phase one of the LRC where it has been wetter.
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  So that's why we've been saying late May, first half of June is
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  when it's going to get wetter. So the pressures on northern
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  Missouri, the pressures on Kansas and the pressures on
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  southern Nebraska, western Nebraska, where it's been drier
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  to get hit before summer gets here.
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  If it does not, then we have an expanding drought.
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  And remember, I always say droughts are either expanding or
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  shrinking. So right now something popped up
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  over Missouri. So a slight expansion.
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  We need to nip that right now in the bud and get it over with.
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  So we have an opportunity to do that before summer gets here.
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  Are we still thinking that we're going to be seeing an abnormally
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  wet summer for the most parts of the Midwest or we we're thinking
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  dry now? I don't think we're, I don't
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  know if we're thinking dry, abnormally wet is unlikely
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  because it hasn't been abnormally wet.
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  It's been near average in many spots, a little bit below in
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  some and a little bit above in others.
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  But the very wet has not happened.
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  So the odds of that happening during the summer is low also.
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  And during the summer, near average rainfall isn't enough.
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  So if you don't have irrigation, there's going to be problems
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  because you need, when it gets up to near 90, number one,
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  you're starting to having a diseased environment and #2 you
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  need about two inches of liquid water per week just to keep
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  everything irrigated properly. So 2 inches of liquid per week,
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  but you only average 4 inches of rain in July.
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  That means you only average one inch of liquid.
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  So if you're not above average, you're going to still struggle
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  for moisture just a bit. Yeah, for sure.
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  How are we seeing, what are we looking at on heat waves as far
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  as all of that goes temperature wise that we're going to be
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  seeing this summer? I do think there will be some
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  heat stress and a couple of heat waves.
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  I don't think they'll be long lasting unless you're over South
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  Texas. You know, Texas obviously often
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  does have longer heat waves than everywhere else, but we'll just
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  have to see if it's going to develop into a longer duration
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  one. I still haven't done that summer
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  analysis, but I promise all of you in the next couple weeks
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  I'll have that ready to go. Yes, for sure.
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  Any other highs, lows, anything else we need to hit on today?
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  Just be impeccable with your word, all right?
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  Love yourself, enjoy life and don't lie to yourself or others.
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  Not easy to do. Let me tell you, no one does it.
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  We all lie to ourselves. Yes, I lied to myself this
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  morning when I said I was going to get out of bed on my first
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  alarm and then I hit snooze. So, I mean, we're all imperfect
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  people, so. I know.
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  Don't lie to yourself, but give yourself grace.
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  I've been giving up every morning at 1:30 or two and the
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  only thing to do is not I haven't pushed news once I've
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  been, you know, I I just bounce out of bed.
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  When back in 1986, nineteen 88, when I first started my career,
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  I looked at the word bumptious. Just get up with a bumptious
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  feeling. Just boom, bounce out of bed.
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  Bumptious is a real word. Yes, I need to get back to that
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  'cause I used to get out of bed with like a bumptious attitude,
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  right? Like that first alarm hit and I
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  was like, I was up, I was going, I was cranking the music.
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  And nowadays I, I get enough sleep, like I'm, I'm in bed by
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  9:00 most nights. I'm kind of a old handover here
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  and I, I just, I don't get up with as much of A bumptious
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  attitude these days. So when that 536 o'clock alarm
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  hits, I need to be bumptious. That's going to be my word for
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  the week. My husband's going to listen to
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  this and he's going to be like, are you bumptious?
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  I'm going to look at the definition real quick.
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  OK, bumptious. Let's see here.
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  Self assertive or proud to an irritating degree.
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  So in other words, I'm getting up.
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  Yes, yes, that's the type of energy I need in the mornings.
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  So you know, those hatch alarm clocks, the like sunrise alarm
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  clocks, there's AI don't have one, but I know someone that
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  does. There's a alarm on there that
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  you can like set in your app that's pretty much just like a
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  person talking. And they say like, get out of
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  bed, you sexy animal like and they're like bumptious about it.
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  And it is the funniest thing ever.
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  And I'm like, maybe I need to change my like morning thing to
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  someone who's yelling at me in a very bumptious attitude, and
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  then I'll be bumptious. Excellent.
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  I'll, I'll record one for you. Lauren.
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  It's going to get up right now. Get up.
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  It's Monday. I'm going to need that 1000%.
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  I'm I definitely need that and I'm making that a your ring tone
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  on my phone and B my alarm for the mornings of Gary just
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  yelling and a very bumptious attitude.
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  I don't want to yell. OK, just excitingly sane in a
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  bumptious way. Yeah, exactly.
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  I'll work on it. Yes, perfect.
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  All right. Well, Gary, as always, thank you
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  for your time today. To all of you listeners out
• 17:44
  there, make sure you check out the show notes.
• 17:45
  We've got that Weather 2020 exclusive link for you guys.
• 17:48
  If you are a farmer or rancher listening to this and you're
• 17:51
  like I'm a little bit worried about what's coming.
• 17:53
  I need to watch this drought to all of those things, get that
• 17:56
  Weather 2020 dashboard. Those long term predictions are
• 17:59
  going to be great for you guys going into summer, going into
• 18:02
  these fall months, especially planning harvest, planning what
• 18:05
  you're going to be doing over the summer months, all of that
• 18:07
  jazz. It is going to be a great tool
• 18:09
  for you. So make sure you check out your
• 18:11
  our exclusive Cattle USA partnership link that is going
• 18:15
  to be down in the show notes for you guys.
• 18:16
  And as always, make sure you like subscribe rate review.
• 18:19
  If you had a good time with us today, we would appreciate all
• 18:22
  the love and we will see you all tomorrow on another episode.
• 18:26
  We hope you have a great rest of your Monday and we'll see you.