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Saudi Arabia accuses Houthis of red line attack on Mecca · DEEP INSIGHT

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  Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia is accusing Yemen's Houthi militants of crossing a
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  Speaker 1: red line after it shot down a drone near Mecca.
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  Speaker 1: A Saudi spokesperson accused the Iran-backed group of targeting the city,
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  Speaker 1: the holiest in Islam, and the Houthis deny the claims.
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  Speaker 1: In recent weeks, the group have made swift advances in
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  Speaker 1: Yemen and launched repeated attacks on Saudi Arabian cities and
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  Speaker 1: oil infrastructure. In the past 24 hours, Elizabeth, there have
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  Speaker 1: been claims and counterclaims that the Houthis have shot down
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  Speaker 1: a Saudi fighter jet and attacked Mecca.
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  Speaker 2: With a drone.
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  Speaker 1: The Saudis are actually disputing that the fighter jet happened.
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  Speaker 1: But given what you know of the Houthi threat, would
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  Speaker 1: they have the capability to do this?
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  Speaker 2: The Houthis would have the capability to do this. They
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  Speaker 2: have become increasingly sophisticated. This group now is large. It's
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  Speaker 2: has a lot of resources, and it has become increasingly
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  Speaker 2: sophisticated and accurate in its targeting. We know that it
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  Speaker 2: has missiles. Not only can they be very accurate, but
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  Speaker 2: they also have a long range of around 2,000 kilometers.
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  Speaker 2: They have drones with a range of around 2,500 kilometers,
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  Speaker 2: anti-ship missiles. They're getting really good at this, and they've
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  Speaker 2: had a lot of practice because they've been at war
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  Speaker 2: now for over 20 years on and off since 2004. So, yes,
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  Speaker 2: it's possible. The real question is, would they want to
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  Speaker 2: attack Mecca? They certainly would want to shoot down the
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  Speaker 2: Saudi plane if they could.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, I mean, and right now, of course, their
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  Speaker 1: focus is squarely on the Saudis. But the blockade of
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  Speaker 1: the Bab al-Mandab Strait is having knock on effects much
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  Speaker 1: wider than that on the international community. And the Houthis
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  Speaker 1: have been very careful in their wording to say they
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  Speaker 1: will not target international targets. shipping but do you expect
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  Speaker 1: them to continue to show this type of restraint moving forward?
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  Speaker 2: I think this is a tactical statement by the Houthis.
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  Speaker 2: They said this before two years ago in 20 or
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  Speaker 2: three years ago in 2023 when they started attacking shipping
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  Speaker 2: they said well we're going to limit it to ships
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  Speaker 2: that are either Israeli or linked to Israel and frankly
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  Speaker 2: they attacked uh Dozens, hundreds, in fact, they claim to
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  Speaker 2: have attacked almost 200 ships and they were not all
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  Speaker 2: linked to Israel. So what they're probably trying to do
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  Speaker 2: is to calibrate their struggle such that by keeping Saudi
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  Speaker 2: as an enemy and isolated from other countries, they try
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  Speaker 2: to prevent America and other Saudi allies from getting stuck
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  Speaker 2: into this conflict in a major kinetic way. That's what
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  Speaker 2: they're trying to do.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: And I mean, and we're seeing that, of course, in
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  Speaker 1: sort of the regional partners and Saudi partners not really
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  Speaker 1: responding to their calls for aid at the moment. But
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  Speaker 1: what's curious to me is that the Saudis possess some
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  Speaker 1: of the most sophisticated aircraft and weapons systems in the region.
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  Speaker 1: So why have they alone been unable to rebuff the
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  Speaker 1: Houthis advance? And what options are they left with now
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  Speaker 1: without the assistance of regional partners?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a really good question. Why is it
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  Speaker 2: that such a well-invested military has not been able to
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  Speaker 2: crush the Houthis? Of course, the Saudis have an air
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  Speaker 2: force and the Houthis don't. But the issue is that
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  Speaker 2: this is an asymmetric struggle. If you think about the
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  Speaker 2: Houthis as a guerrilla force with guerrilla tactics and then
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  Speaker 2: massively times it into a huge scale of that, that
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  Speaker 2: is this kind of conflict. This is what we're dealing with.
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  Speaker 2: And so the Houthis who have so much experience, they're efficient,
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  Speaker 2: they're organized, they're an adaptive organization, they've learned how to
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  Speaker 2: use AI to help them, and they know how to
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  Speaker 2: melt away into their geographical terrain, which is very mountainous.
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  Speaker 2: They have a lot of experience. So the Saudis are
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  Speaker 2: going to find that incredibly difficult, particularly given that the
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  Speaker 2: Saudi-backed government forces in Yemen are so disparate. They're a
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  Speaker 2: real hodgepodge of tribal militias, religious factions, regular army, resistance forces,
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  Speaker 2: et cetera, whereas the Houthis are actually quite united. So
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  Speaker 2: Saudi doesn't have a lot of good options. Probably those options,
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  Speaker 2: number three, It can try containment, which it's been trying
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  Speaker 2: for the last four years, hasn't really worked. It can
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  Speaker 2: reestablish itself inside the war as a kinetic force, again,
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  Speaker 2: against the Houthis. It tried that for seven years. Between
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  Speaker 2: 2015 and 2022, that didn't really work. Or option three,
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  Speaker 2: it could try to put together a regional security program
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  Speaker 2: with regional partners, men defenses with the United Arab Emirates,
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  Speaker 2: and try to bring Iran into that kind of gulf structure.
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  Speaker 2: I think that's probably its best option at this point.
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  Speaker 3: We've seen how much they have advanced, how quickly they're advancing,
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  Speaker 3: going after Mocha, going after Prim Island, really consolidating their
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  Speaker 3: grip on the international shipping route, right? You've studied them
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  Speaker 3: for a long time. What do you make of this advance?
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  Speaker 4: Thanks for having me back, Isa. In fact, I went
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  Speaker 4: back to check the last time we spoke, which was
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  Speaker 4: a few weeks ago. I actually said, you know, the
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  Speaker 4: Houthis haven't really gotten involved fully yet. That might be
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  Speaker 4: the ace up the Iranian sleeve. So here we go.
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  Speaker 4: This is a very deliberate move strategically on the part
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  Speaker 4: of the Iranians to use this proxy in this way
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  Speaker 4: at this time. This has been a phased approach since
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  Speaker 4: late February when the war kicked off. And right now,
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  Speaker 4: this is hitting on a couple of levers. One, it's
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  Speaker 4: isolating the Saudis. It's putting pressure on energy markets. And
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  Speaker 4: it's showing the world that the Houthis are not scared
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  Speaker 4: of anybody. They're meeting with administration officials from the United
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  Speaker 4: States and Oman on the sidelines to basically say, we
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  Speaker 4: won't go after you if you don't go after us.
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  Speaker 4: This is largely unprecedented.
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  Speaker 2: Right.
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  Speaker 3: So then I suspect, Colin, the question then becomes, what
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  Speaker 3: do they intend to do with their strengthened position? I
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  Speaker 3: know you were saying they're seen as an ally of Iran,
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  Speaker 3: but are they doing this for money, political recognition? What
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  Speaker 3: do you know about them that kind of help shape
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  Speaker 3: the next steps?
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  Speaker 4: Well, they see themselves, and my colleague Elizabeth Kendall over
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  Speaker 4: in the UK spoke about this recently, they see themselves
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  Speaker 4: as the victor in this kind of on again, off again,
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  Speaker 4: Yemeni civil war. Their goal is to consolidate power and
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  Speaker 4: that's their foremost objective. The byproduct of that, it's gonna
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  Speaker 4: benefit Tehran. And so the Iranians are gonna use this
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  Speaker 4: as leverage as we go through this kind of fight
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  Speaker 4: and talk negotiation where we have kind of tit for
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  Speaker 4: tat exchanges. The Iranians know that this is putting a
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  Speaker 4: lot of pressure on the United States. It's putting pressure on, again,
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  Speaker 4: global commercial shipping markets. the global economy, and we're slowly
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  Speaker 4: inching up toward the midterm elections in the United States.
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  Speaker 4: This is a really big problem for the Trump administration
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  Speaker 4: right now, even though they're attempting to say, you know,
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  Speaker 4: this isn't our fight.
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  Speaker 2: Right.
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  Speaker 3: And even if, Colin, I wonder if the Houthis think,
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  Speaker 3: believe that this is a controlled escalation in their part
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  Speaker 3: because they're only targeting Saudi ships. How far then do
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  Speaker 3: you think they're prepared to go here?
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  Speaker 4: I think they're prepared to go all the way to
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  Speaker 4: seek to consolidate control over as much of Yemen as
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  Speaker 4: they possibly can. And if these reports today about a
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  Speaker 4: surface to air missile taking out a Saudi F-35 are true,
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  Speaker 4: which they appear to be, you know, that's another kind
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  Speaker 4: of level of escalation here. That's a really big deal.
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  Speaker 4: And I think we're only kind of gathering the facts
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  Speaker 4: on this now. But if you look at the capabilities
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  Speaker 4: of the Houthis to go after the East-West pipeline, to
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  Speaker 4: take out really expensive aircraft and strike fighters, this is
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  Speaker 4: not just your average kind of terrorist or insurgent group.
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  Speaker 4: These guys are like violent non-state actors on steroids.