Latest / Toadstool Sports / Wednesday BEST BETS | Calm Before the Storm | MLB & WNBA | 8/26/26

Transcript

Wednesday BEST BETS | Calm Before the Storm | MLB & WNBA | 8/26/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mess three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your hand now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: made you this man but don't you go quiet don't
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor your name still means something
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: to somebody for sure put the glass down baby look
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: Now hold on.
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: Hold on, not.
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: Tonight, not now. Hold on, hold on, let me pull
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: you out. That fella fights hard, but he don't get
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:28
  Speaker 5: What's up everybody, it's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports, Wednesday,
• 1:32
  Speaker 5: August 26th. Went 2-1 on the show yesterday, 5-2 over
• 1:37
  Speaker 5: the last two days.
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: I'm alright with that.
• 1:40
  Speaker 5: We won with Kansas City yesterday in the first five,
• 1:43
  Speaker 5: although they needed a run in the top of the
• 1:45
  Speaker 5: fifth to do it.
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: It was 1-1 at that point and they scored.
• 1:49
  Speaker 5: Make it 2-1, then they scored two more in the
• 1:52
  Speaker 5: next inning and they wound up winning the full game.
• 1:55
  Speaker 5: After I think they were winning 4-1 or 5-1, they
• 1:57
  Speaker 5: wound up winning 5-3. So I would not have recommended
• 2:01
  Speaker 5: playing a full game, though, with that awful bullpen.
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: But they were able to get the job.
• 2:04
  Speaker 5: Done in the first five. It was close to being
• 2:06
  Speaker 5: a push. The overhit in Baltimore, St. Louis, and the
• 2:10
  Speaker 5: Baltimore did all of it. They won 13-1. I thought
• 2:14
  Speaker 5: there would be more balanced scoring in that one, but
• 2:17
  Speaker 5: I'll take it any way you get it, man.
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: Bassett was definitely better than I expected.
• 2:23
  Speaker 5: I'll have to look at the box score just to
• 2:24
  Speaker 5: make sure that everything lined up there. But yeah, I
• 2:29
  Speaker 5: don't know what else to say about that. Libertory was terrible.
• 2:31
  Speaker 5: It was a terrible spot for St. Louis in that one.
• 2:35
  Speaker 5: And then we did win with.
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: Or excuse me, we took a loss with.
• 2:39
  Speaker 5: The under in the Cleveland-Anaheim game, which looked even worse
• 2:44
  Speaker 5: because it went into extra innings, but it wasn't good anyway.
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: That game was way higher scoring than I thought it
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: would be.
• 2:51
  Speaker 5: It was an 8-6 Cleveland final, but that play was
• 2:54
  Speaker 5: dead really early on. Anaheim scored five runs in the
• 2:58
  Speaker 5: first two innings. I don't know what happened to Gavin Williams.
• 3:01
  Speaker 5: It was one of his worst starts probably of his career,
• 3:03
  Speaker 5: and Urania was not good on the other side either,
• 3:06
  Speaker 5: so I don't know what to tell you about that.
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: That was a bad play. It was a loser.
• 3:11
  Speaker 5: It seemed like it would be a good play. That's
• 3:13
  Speaker 5: why I added it to the card, but whatever. You're
• 3:16
  Speaker 5: not going to win every one of them.
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: We try to give out the best here on the show. Today,
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: I don't like the board.
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: I have one baseball play, and I'm going to have
• 3:25
  Speaker 5: a WNBA play, even though I have maybe a little
• 3:29
  Speaker 5: bit of a concern with it, but I think it
• 3:30
  Speaker 5: just has to happen, man. We need to get back
• 3:33
  Speaker 5: on the right side in the WNBA, and hopefully this
• 3:35
  Speaker 5: one's going to hit. Baseball, we have afternoon baseball today.
• 3:41
  Speaker 5: Some of these teams are finishing their series, and they're
• 3:43
  Speaker 5: going to be either off yesterday, traveling, playing a new series, whatever.
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay is playing Detroit here.
• 3:49
  Speaker 5: Detroit got the win yesterday, so they did end a
• 3:52
  Speaker 5: long losing streak. Detroit really playing some bad baseball recently
• 3:56
  Speaker 5: and may have played themselves out of the playoffs at
• 3:58
  Speaker 5: this point. But they won, ending a six-game losing streak,
• 4:01
  Speaker 5: so I think that's a good momentum starter. I like
• 4:05
  Speaker 5: when a team ends a losing streak. A lot of
• 4:08
  Speaker 5: times that will give them that new momentum and get that.
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: Monkey off their back.
• 4:11
  Speaker 5: So the spot, I think, favors Detroit a little bit here.
• 4:14
  Speaker 5: Both teams will show up, but Detroit, if they Don't.
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: Think they're dead.
• 4:18
  Speaker 5: They're going to be playing with more urgency here. Tampa
• 4:22
  Speaker 5: Bay doesn't really need the game as much.
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: Bullpen-wise, these bullpens.
• 4:28
  Speaker 5: I think are kind of closely matched. Tampa used only
• 4:31
  Speaker 5: one guy out of the bullpen yesterday, though. Detroit used
• 4:34
  Speaker 5: more than that.
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: They used four. So Tampa Bay probably does have the
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: edge in this game out of the bullpen.
• 4:39
  Speaker 5: They're ranked fourth, although I keep saying they're not that
• 4:41
  Speaker 5: good because their ERA isn't really that good. Detroit's bullpen
• 4:44
  Speaker 5: ERA is better, but they're ranked 14th. arranged by WIP.
• 4:48
  Speaker 5: But I think probably Tampa Bay has a slight bullpen
• 4:51
  Speaker 5: edge in this one. Tampa Bay is seventh offensively, Detroit 14th.
• 4:55
  Speaker 5: Tampa does have a little bit of an edge there.
• 4:58
  Speaker 5: Starting pitching, if you look at how these pitchers have
• 5:00
  Speaker 5: performed this year, even if you include recency, Detroit should
• 5:05
  Speaker 5: have the starting pitching edge here. Freddy Peralta's pitching for
• 5:08
  Speaker 5: Tampa Bay.
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: Really bad season for him. 5.33 ERA, 1.46 WIP.
• 5:11
  Speaker 5: It's been by far his worst season of his career overall.
• 5:16
  Speaker 5: He was a good pitcher when he was on Milwaukee.
• 5:20
  Speaker 5: This season, he was mostly on the Mets. I thought
• 5:22
  Speaker 5: that changing to a different team that was in contention
• 5:25
  Speaker 5: would give him some new motivation. He hasn't been that
• 5:29
  Speaker 5: great with Tampa either, though. He's been bad on the road. 6.79
• 5:33
  Speaker 5: road ERA. That's not good. Since joining Tampa, really not great.
• 5:38
  Speaker 5: One fairly good start at the A's, which is a
• 5:41
  Speaker 5: hitter-friendly park, so that was all right, but other.
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: Than that, Not great.
• 5:45
  Speaker 5: His last start, though, he gave up five runs, but
• 5:47
  Speaker 5: he actually did have good command numbers there, and he
• 5:49
  Speaker 5: went seven innings, six strikeouts, one walk, which was against Baltimore.
• 5:53
  Speaker 5: So that start wasn't really as bad as the amount
• 5:56
  Speaker 5: of runs that he gave up made it look. So
• 5:58
  Speaker 5: maybe he is kind of trending in the right direction.
• 6:00
  Speaker 5: And I guess the other good news is he does
• 6:03
  Speaker 5: have good numbers against Detroit. 41 at-bats, 13-3 strikeout walk ratio,
• 6:06
  Speaker 5: 244 average allowed, 677 OPS, and he did face Detroit
• 6:08
  Speaker 5: this year. back when he was on the Mets back
• 6:15
  Speaker 5: in New York, and he did well in that start,
• 6:18
  Speaker 5: so he might actually have a decent matchup here, so
• 6:21
  Speaker 5: he might actually not pitch that poorly here.
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: Looking at his overall numbers, though, he's.
• 6:25
  Speaker 5: Had some big-time walk issues this year. His hit rate
• 6:27
  Speaker 5: is also too high. Too many home runs allowed, too, really,
• 6:31
  Speaker 5: and his strikeout rate actually isn't too bad, so he
• 6:34
  Speaker 5: is striking guys out, but the walk rate has been
• 6:36
  Speaker 5: a major issue for him, more than it usually is.
• 6:40
  Speaker 5: Strikeout for nine is actually not too bad here on
• 6:43
  Speaker 5: the season, but the strikeout walk ratio is a little
• 6:46
  Speaker 5: bit bad. Again, the walks have been the major issue
• 6:49
  Speaker 5: for him throughout his career, but it's been more of
• 6:52
  Speaker 5: an issue this year. Plus, he's been too hitable on
• 6:54
  Speaker 5: top of that. Troy Melton is pitching for Detroit. He's
• 6:58
  Speaker 5: been good since they brought him up to the majors, man,
• 7:01
  Speaker 5: although I don't think his numbers here are sustainable because
• 7:03
  Speaker 5: he's not a strikeout pitcher, but he has a 1.6 ERA,
• 7:07
  Speaker 5: one whip, so he's not putting guys on base.
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: He's been slightly worse at home with a 2.09 home ERA.
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: Oh, no.
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: He's been good, though.
• 7:16
  Speaker 5: He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in all but
• 7:18
  Speaker 5: one start on the season. He allows very few hits.
• 7:21
  Speaker 5: Doesn't really walk many people either. Strikeout rate isn't too high, though.
• 7:25
  Speaker 5: Like I said, that's just not really what he does.
• 7:28
  Speaker 5: He does have good numbers against the Rays, 22 at-bats.
• 7:31
  Speaker 5: Not a big sample, but 182 average allowed, 598 OPS overall.
• 7:36
  Speaker 5: 3-3 strikeout walk ratio. I believe this is eight hitters
• 7:39
  Speaker 5: have faced.
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: Him in that lineup.
• 7:42
  Speaker 5: I could see the argument for the under in this game.
• 7:45
  Speaker 5: The money seems to be slightly tilted.
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: Towards the over. 59% of tickets, 62% of the cash
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: on the over.
• 7:51
  Speaker 5: Total is low at 7.5, so the oddsmakers seem to
• 7:55
  Speaker 5: think it's going to be low scoring. Peralta seems like
• 7:58
  Speaker 5: he might draw a good matchup here. I expect Melton
• 8:01
  Speaker 5: probably pitches well as well, so I think the under...
• 8:04
  Speaker 5: It's probably my strongest opinion here, although a lot of
• 8:06
  Speaker 5: money coming in on Detroit, and I don't really disagree
• 8:09
  Speaker 5: with that either. 51% of tickets on Tampa, 75% of
• 8:13
  Speaker 5: the cash on Detroit. They're like minus 120 here. Maybe
• 8:16
  Speaker 5: Detroit first five makes more sense because I don't know
• 8:20
  Speaker 5: if we trust their bullpen given the usage yesterday.
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: So Detroit first five.
• 8:25
  Speaker 5: I think it's definitely in consideration here just because Peralta's
• 8:28
  Speaker 5: just had a bad season overall, man, and maybe he's
• 8:31
  Speaker 5: not trustworthy on the road. Melton has been the better
• 8:34
  Speaker 5: pitcher out of the two this year, and Detroit has
• 8:37
  Speaker 5: that new momentum after they broke the losing streak, plus
• 8:41
  Speaker 5: they have more motivation here potentially, so Detroit first five
• 8:45
  Speaker 5: makes some sense.
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: I probably slightly.
• 8:47
  Speaker 5: Prefer the under in that game, but lean to Detroit
• 8:52
  Speaker 5: first five as well.
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: I think both of those are Valid ways of playing
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: that game. Yeah. All right.
• 9:00
  Speaker 5: Chicago and Arizona. These teams have split the first two games.
• 9:05
  Speaker 5: Arizona bounced back after that embarrassing loss in the first game,
• 9:09
  Speaker 5: which I thought they might. A lot of teams bounce
• 9:11
  Speaker 5: back after they get shut out in the first game.
• 9:13
  Speaker 5: I thought it would be a little bit lower scoring yesterday,
• 9:15
  Speaker 5: but Arizona wound up winning the game 5-4. Arizona's got
• 9:19
  Speaker 5: a little bit more to play for here because they're
• 9:21
  Speaker 5: fighting for One of the last wild card spots was
• 9:24
  Speaker 5: the Cubs are more secure in their playoff spot right now.
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: Arizona used two relief pitchers yesterday. Cubs also used two.
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: The Cubs, I think they have the better bullpen.
• 9:34
  Speaker 5: Arizona's ranked ninth, but their ERA is not very good.
• 9:37
  Speaker 5: Cubs are ranked 12th, but they do have the better ERA.
• 9:40
  Speaker 5: And their whip is really not that much worse. So
• 9:42
  Speaker 5: I do think the Cubs are the better bullpen. Cubs
• 9:45
  Speaker 5: are number one offensively still. They've been really hitting the
• 9:47
  Speaker 5: ball well. recently and Arizona's been pretty good as well
• 9:51
  Speaker 5: offensively they're 18th right now tied with Kansas City and
• 9:54
  Speaker 5: Philly but they moved way up because they were in
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: the bottom like several offenses for a lot of the season.
• 10:01
  Speaker 5: Pitching matchup here, Matthew Boyd is pitching for Chicago. He's
• 10:06
  Speaker 5: been mediocre, a 4.15 ERA, 1.24 whip. I'm not happy
• 10:10
  Speaker 5: with him right now because we did not get the
• 10:13
  Speaker 5: win when we backed him on Friday against Seattle, but
• 10:16
  Speaker 5: he's been good on the road, which is part of
• 10:18
  Speaker 5: the reason why I did back him there. He has
• 10:20
  Speaker 5: a three road ERA, but Seattle's a pitcher friendly park
• 10:25
  Speaker 5: and Arizona is more hitter friendly. So I don't know
• 10:28
  Speaker 5: what he's going to do here. And he's not striking
• 10:30
  Speaker 5: guys out recently. His strikeout walk ratio is really bad
• 10:34
  Speaker 5: in the month of August, 11 and nine.
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: That's not good, man. And he's been giving up a
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: lot of runs here.
• 10:39
  Speaker 5: He's going somewhat deep into most of these outings, but Yeah,
• 10:43
  Speaker 5: I mean, he's not pitching that well right now. Not
• 10:45
  Speaker 5: really striking guys out. The walks don't look good. However,
• 10:48
  Speaker 5: if you look at his season-wide numbers, hit rate's fine.
• 10:51
  Speaker 5: Walk rate isn't bad. Strikeout rate is low. But the
• 10:54
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio won't be too bad because he really
• 10:57
  Speaker 5: hasn't walked that many people on the season. And strikeout
• 11:02
  Speaker 5: per nine is, yeah, kind of low, which isn't a
• 11:05
  Speaker 5: great sign, I guess. But he is typically good against Arizona,
• 11:08
  Speaker 5: 68 career at-bats. 191 average, 589 OPS, 17 strikeouts, 4 walks.
• 11:15
  Speaker 5: So he might draw a decent matchup here. And again,
• 11:17
  Speaker 5: he is better on the road, so he's in the
• 11:18
  Speaker 5: better of his home road splits here with what might
• 11:21
  Speaker 5: be a decent matchup. Eduardo Rodriguez continues to baffle the
• 11:26
  Speaker 5: advanced analytics guys with his good season this year. He's
• 11:29
  Speaker 5: pitching for Arizona here, 2.61 ERA, 1.21 whip. He's been
• 11:34
  Speaker 5: basically the same home and away. I think he's a
• 11:36
  Speaker 5: little bit better at home because his opponent batting average
• 11:39
  Speaker 5: is pretty low at home. He's been pretty good over
• 11:42
  Speaker 5: the course.
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: Of the season, man. He's still not pitching poorly.
• 11:45
  Speaker 5: His strikeout rate's been pretty good this month, 22 and
• 11:47
  Speaker 5: 24 and a third innings, only four walks. Yeah, I mean,
• 11:51
  Speaker 5: none of those numbers look bad. Over the course of
• 11:53
  Speaker 5: the season, low hit rate. His walk rate is, I guess,
• 11:57
  Speaker 5: a little bit questionable. His strikeout rate is definitely low
• 11:59
  Speaker 5: over the course of the season, and that's what the
• 12:02
  Speaker 5: advanced analytics guys are poking at here. His strikeout walk
• 12:06
  Speaker 5: ratio is still not really that good. So some regression
• 12:09
  Speaker 5: is expected. His whip does indicate that his ERA should
• 12:12
  Speaker 5: be higher than it is, although I would still say
• 12:14
  Speaker 5: his ERA probably should.
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: Be in the threes, which is still not bad.
• 12:18
  Speaker 5: His strikeout per nine is down, though. It's the lowest
• 12:23
  Speaker 5: that it's ever been, and we know that he's older
• 12:26
  Speaker 5: and post-Tommy John surgery or whatever, but he's continuing to
• 12:29
  Speaker 5: pitch effectively, man.
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: His numbers against Chicago, though, not good. It's 64 at-bats,
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: 281 average average.
• 12:37
  Speaker 5: 9-11 OPS, 14-5 strikeout walk ratio. Just looking at the
• 12:42
  Speaker 5: matchup numbers here, I don't know, man. I mean, the
• 12:46
  Speaker 5: motivation probably is on the side of Arizona here. I
• 12:49
  Speaker 5: kind of lean Cubs in this one. Just maybe I'm
• 12:52
  Speaker 5: weighing the matchup too heavily, but Boyd has the better
• 12:56
  Speaker 5: matchup numbers here. He is better on the road than
• 12:58
  Speaker 5: he is at home, so I think he can compete here,
• 13:00
  Speaker 5: and you're going to get the Cubs right around a
• 13:02
  Speaker 5: pick-em price, and they are the better team overall. They
• 13:04
  Speaker 5: have the better offense, and I would say the better
• 13:07
  Speaker 5: bullpen as well. So I would slightly lean Cubs here.
• 13:10
  Speaker 5: The money is indicating otherwise slightly. 55% of tickets on
• 13:14
  Speaker 5: the Cubs, 56% of the cash on the Diamondbacks. The
• 13:17
  Speaker 5: stronger market read in this game is actually the over.
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: Eight and a half.
• 13:22
  Speaker 5: Looks like the over is getting some money there. I
• 13:25
  Speaker 5: don't have a great read on the over. I mean,
• 13:27
  Speaker 5: I guess I could see the argument for it, right?
• 13:28
  Speaker 5: Like if you're looking at Boyd just having a really
• 13:31
  Speaker 5: bad strikeout walk ratio recently, Erods is a lot better.
• 13:36
  Speaker 5: So I guess that kind of counters the Cubs' lean
• 13:39
  Speaker 5: a little bit, by the way. If you want better
• 13:42
  Speaker 5: current form, Erod is the pitcher that falls into that
• 13:46
  Speaker 5: category there. He's the one that's in the better form.
• 13:49
  Speaker 5: But he's expected to regress based on his overall numbers.
• 13:54
  Speaker 5: Boyd does have his issues. His recent strikeout walk ratio,
• 13:58
  Speaker 5: not good. So I guess I could kind of see
• 13:59
  Speaker 5: some of the arguments for the over there. Plus, both
• 14:02
  Speaker 5: teams have been hitting well. recently so that's another argument
• 14:05
  Speaker 5: for the over but i don't like the game really
• 14:07
  Speaker 5: so that's a pass for me dirty sock what's up
• 14:10
  Speaker 5: thanks for hanging out garrett what's up i did not
• 14:14
  Speaker 5: like that call i said under in that game um
• 14:17
  Speaker 5: i think you got a little bit lucky man uh
• 14:19
  Speaker 5: i said under and uh i lead to the dodgers
• 14:22
  Speaker 5: yesterday as well braves do the braves were in a
• 14:25
  Speaker 5: return home spot i would never tell you to take
• 14:27
  Speaker 5: a team in a return home spot i i will
• 14:30
  Speaker 5: literally never do it um It's a negative spot. Plus,
• 14:34
  Speaker 5: they were coming off the Sunday night game in the
• 14:38
  Speaker 5: Little League Classic, which was a huge.
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: Win over Milwaukee.
• 14:43
  Speaker 5: And Glasnow, I like the spot when a veteran pitcher
• 14:45
  Speaker 5: comes back from the DL like that.
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: So yeah, there's no way I would have recommended the Braves.
• 14:50
  Speaker 5: Elder is also a shit pitcher, but he does have
• 14:52
  Speaker 5: good numbers against the Dodgers. So I said under was
• 14:55
  Speaker 5: the better way to play that game, which I believe
• 14:57
  Speaker 5: was correct. The side, I think you got lucky, man.
• 15:01
  Speaker 5: That's what I'm going to tell you. Cincinnati and San Francisco.
• 15:08
  Speaker 5: These two teams are ass. They're playing out the stretch here.
• 15:10
  Speaker 5: San Francisco is on the verge of a potential sweep here.
• 15:14
  Speaker 5: I like to look for the team that's trying to
• 15:15
  Speaker 5: avoid the sweep because that team usually has a little
• 15:18
  Speaker 5: bit more motivation. San Francisco might overlook the Reds here
• 15:22
  Speaker 5: after beating them twice. Reds only have one run in
• 15:24
  Speaker 5: this entire series, which is ridiculous. San Francisco, I believe,
• 15:28
  Speaker 5: is playing Arizona next. San Francisco does have there's the
• 15:33
  Speaker 5: potential they might be looking ahead to Arizona because it's
• 15:36
  Speaker 5: a divisional series. They might play spoiler in that series, whatever.
• 15:40
  Speaker 5: So I think the situation indicates towards Cincinnati here, but
• 15:45
  Speaker 5: the matchup I would say does not.
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: As far as.
• 15:51
  Speaker 5: The way that this, as far as the bullpen usage
• 15:53
  Speaker 5: is concerned, San Francisco used four elite pitchers yesterday. I
• 15:56
  Speaker 5: don't love their bullpen. Cincinnati's is worse, but they only
• 15:59
  Speaker 5: use two guys. But I would avoid both bullpens here.
• 16:02
  Speaker 5: Giants are 24th, Cincinnati 25th. Don't love any of that.
• 16:06
  Speaker 5: I don't like these offenses either. San Francisco 22nd, Cincinnati 26th.
• 16:11
  Speaker 5: These are bad offenses, and this is a pitcher-friendly park here.
• 16:15
  Speaker 5: Nick Lodolo pitching for Cincinnati.
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: He is not having a good season.
• 16:20
  Speaker 5: Since the end of last year, he seems to just
• 16:21
  Speaker 5: be having injury issues, blister issues, who knows what's going on.
• 16:26
  Speaker 5: But this has been a much worse season for him
• 16:27
  Speaker 5: than what we've seen out of him throughout his career. 5.04 ERA, 1.52
• 16:32
  Speaker 5: whip is really bad. He's not good on the road. 5.59
• 16:36
  Speaker 5: road ERA. Even though this will be a more pitcher-friendly
• 16:39
  Speaker 5: park than his home stadium, he pitches better at that
• 16:43
  Speaker 5: stadium for whatever reason. He got lit up last time
• 16:46
  Speaker 5: out at Arizona. Not a good start for him. He's
• 16:49
  Speaker 5: not pitching well this month, really. He's been way too
• 16:52
  Speaker 5: hittable for the most part. Not really striking guys out.
• 16:55
  Speaker 5: Same thing goes for the whole season. His hit rate's
• 16:57
  Speaker 5: too high. His walk rate's not good. His strikeout rate's low.
• 17:00
  Speaker 5: These numbers are pretty abysmal. Really bad strikeout walk ratio,
• 17:05
  Speaker 5: like way worse than he's put up throughout his career.
• 17:07
  Speaker 5: So I think there's something wrong with him, to be honest.
• 17:10
  Speaker 5: Like the last two seasons, he was nowhere near this bad,
• 17:13
  Speaker 5: especially last year. And you could argue last year was
• 17:16
  Speaker 5: a little bit of an outlier. But even if you
• 17:18
  Speaker 5: look at the year before that, he is way worse
• 17:20
  Speaker 5: this year.
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: And I don't really.
• 17:22
  Speaker 5: Understand why his strikeout rate has gone way down as well.
• 17:26
  Speaker 5: So I think, yeah, there's something wrong with him. His
• 17:29
  Speaker 5: numbers against the Giants, they're only one for 12 off,
• 17:33
  Speaker 5: and they have three batters who have faced him. 083 average,
• 17:37
  Speaker 5: 237 OPS, three strikeouts, one walk. Not a big sample size,
• 17:41
  Speaker 5: but Lodolo might draw a decent matchup here because it's
• 17:45
  Speaker 5: a bad offense, and they're not particularly good against Lodolo.
• 17:50
  Speaker 5: Landon Relp is getting the start for the Giants. He's
• 17:53
  Speaker 5: been okay, 4.34 ERA. 1.31 whip, not great. He's slightly
• 17:58
  Speaker 5: better at home, 4.22 home area with a better opponent
• 18:02
  Speaker 5: batting average at home.
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: His issue is the walks, though, and it continues to
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: be that. He has a horrible.
• 18:08
  Speaker 5: 16 to 16 strikeout walk ratio this month.
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: That is awful.
• 18:12
  Speaker 5: The number of walks is terrible, and if he was
• 18:15
  Speaker 5: able to clean that up, he'd be pretty good because
• 18:17
  Speaker 5: he doesn't really allow that many hits. His strikeout rate's decent,
• 18:20
  Speaker 5: and that's been the case over the whole season.
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: Strikeout rate, pretty good. Hit rate, good. Walk rate, terrible.
• 18:27
  Speaker 5: So his strikeout walk ratio is going to be really
• 18:29
  Speaker 5: bad because of all the walks. Strikeout per nine, not
• 18:32
  Speaker 5: too bad. Something's got to give, man. He's got to
• 18:35
  Speaker 5: clean that shit up. Cincinnati, however, you want to see
• 18:38
  Speaker 5: some stats here. Cincinnati's current lineup is 0 for 26
• 18:42
  Speaker 5: off of Raup.
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: That is ridiculous.
• 18:44
  Speaker 5: With nine strikeouts, two walks, the only player on their
• 18:48
  Speaker 5: roster that's ever reached base against Raup is Suarez, who
• 18:51
  Speaker 5: has two walks against him. They have a zero average, obviously,
• 18:55
  Speaker 5: and a 071 OPS. This is one of the larger
• 18:58
  Speaker 5: sample sizes. It's not a big sample size, but to
• 19:01
  Speaker 5: have no hits against a pitcher, this is one of
• 19:03
  Speaker 5: the larger sample sizes you'll see.
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: That's ridiculous. So I could see the argument for San Francisco, man.
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: I think the.
• 19:12
  Speaker 5: Matchup favors San Francisco here. The money is coming in
• 19:15
  Speaker 5: the other way, though, towards the situational angle, which is Cincinnati,
• 19:19
  Speaker 5: as I already discussed. 58% of the tickets are on
• 19:23
  Speaker 5: San Francisco, 56% of the cash on Cincinnati. I don't
• 19:26
  Speaker 5: buy that San Francisco is a public side here, really,
• 19:28
  Speaker 5: although they have won both games in the series. So, well,
• 19:31
  Speaker 5: maybe I do buy it, I guess. I mean, the
• 19:34
  Speaker 5: public doesn't want either of these teams, I wouldn't imagine.
• 19:37
  Speaker 5: The money line here is at like a pick'em price.
• 19:40
  Speaker 5: I think whichever side you pick, I would only go
• 19:42
  Speaker 5: in the first five because the bullpens are just, who
• 19:46
  Speaker 5: knows what these bullpens are going to do. Like, either
• 19:48
  Speaker 5: bullpen could just break. you.
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: So I don't like that.
• 19:51
  Speaker 5: The money is also indicating towards the over, but I
• 19:54
  Speaker 5: actually kind of lean first five under in this one.
• 19:58
  Speaker 5: I think both starting pitchers actually do draw a decent
• 20:01
  Speaker 5: matchup here. First five under makes some sense, but a
• 20:04
  Speaker 5: three and a half, It's a little bit questionable, but
• 20:07
  Speaker 5: the oddsmakers are telling you they think it's going to
• 20:09
  Speaker 5: be a low-scoring game by putting a 7.5 out there,
• 20:12
  Speaker 5: and some of it is because the offenses are just awful.
• 20:16
  Speaker 5: But San Francisco makes some sense to me here. I mean,
• 20:19
  Speaker 5: Ralph's numbers against Cincinnati, that 0 for 26, that's pretty good, man.
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: And Lodolo has really had a bad season, so I
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: don't know. I think San Francisco first.
• 20:28
  Speaker 5: Five makes maybe the most sense in that game, but
• 20:31
  Speaker 5: I don't want to play it. I would not do
• 20:35
  Speaker 5: that either. I'm going to talk about that game, obviously.
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I do not want... Smith-Shawver has been absolutely horrible.
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: There's no.
• 20:43
  Speaker 5: Yeah, obviously you're biased. Stop betting with bias, man. Yeah,
• 20:48
  Speaker 5: there's no way that I would play the Braves in
• 20:50
  Speaker 5: that game.
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: No way.
• 20:51
  Speaker 5: I would not have done it yesterday. I don't even
• 20:53
  Speaker 5: really think they should have won the game. And I
• 20:55
  Speaker 5: would not do it today either. Cleveland and Anaheim here...
• 21:01
  Speaker 5: Not happy about the way that went last night, but
• 21:04
  Speaker 5: Cleveland is playing well right now. Cleveland's playing a lot
• 21:07
  Speaker 5: of bad teams, and they're taking advantage of it. Cleveland
• 21:09
  Speaker 5: is on the verge of a sweep here. Cleveland, who
• 21:12
  Speaker 5: are they playing next? Will they have a look ahead
• 21:15
  Speaker 5: is the question. Probably not because they're playing the Royals.
• 21:18
  Speaker 5: So Cleveland might continue to show up here. Cleveland is
• 21:21
  Speaker 5: obviously the team that has more motivation here because they're
• 21:23
  Speaker 5: trying to make the playoffs. Anaheim's done for the season.
• 21:27
  Speaker 5: Cleveland does have the better starting pitcher on the mound
• 21:29
  Speaker 5: here as well. So there are some indicators towards Cleveland
• 21:32
  Speaker 5: in this one. Cleveland has the better bullpen here as well.
• 21:36
  Speaker 5: Both offenses are terrible, which is part of the reason
• 21:39
  Speaker 5: for the underplay yesterday, but I would avoid both bullpens
• 21:42
  Speaker 5: in this game because that game went extras yesterday, and
• 21:45
  Speaker 5: the bullpens got overworked.
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: Cleveland used six relief pitchers in the game yesterday.
• 21:50
  Speaker 5: Anaheim used five, but yeah, I would avoid these bullpens
• 21:55
  Speaker 5: in this game.
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: They're not particularly good bullpens.
• 21:57
  Speaker 5: Cleveland is okay at 15th, but With all that usage yesterday,
• 22:01
  Speaker 5: plus Anaheim being 21st in all their usage, I would
• 22:06
  Speaker 5: avoid the bullpens here or look towards an over in
• 22:09
  Speaker 5: this game if you're going to do something about that.
• 22:12
  Speaker 5: Maybe the over is worth considering in this game because
• 22:15
  Speaker 5: the bullpens are just totally shot, but of course I
• 22:18
  Speaker 5: hate these offenses.
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: They're both terrible.
• 22:21
  Speaker 5: Anaheim's 28th right now, tied with Toronto. Cleveland is 30th,
• 22:25
  Speaker 5: so absolute last after yesterday. Not good at all, even
• 22:28
  Speaker 5: though both offenses actually put up some numbers yesterday.
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: Joey Cantillo is pitching for Cleveland. He is the better
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: starter here.
• 22:35
  Speaker 5: 3.73 ERA, but 1.45 whip is really not good. He
• 22:41
  Speaker 5: puts way too many guys on base via the walk.
• 22:44
  Speaker 5: He's a little bit worse on the road as well. 3.88
• 22:46
  Speaker 5: road ERA with a much higher opponent batting average on
• 22:49
  Speaker 5: the road, so I don't love him on the road.
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: He is walking too many guys.
• 22:52
  Speaker 5: Like I said, he's not allowing a lot of runs,
• 22:55
  Speaker 5: but he's not going deep into some of these outings here.
• 22:57
  Speaker 5: He has good strikeout stuff, so he could be a
• 22:59
  Speaker 5: good pitcher, but his wildness is a major concern. He's
• 23:04
  Speaker 5: not too hittable, walks way too many guys, does strike
• 23:08
  Speaker 5: out a lot of guys as well, but the number
• 23:10
  Speaker 5: of walks is still crushing his strikeout walk ratio.
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: It's not good.
• 23:14
  Speaker 5: Even though his strikeout per nine is good, over nine there.
• 23:19
  Speaker 5: His numbers against Anaheim, though, they're a bad lineup, and
• 23:22
  Speaker 5: they're not good at home, and they have 18 at-bats
• 23:24
  Speaker 5: against them. Small sample, but they've done basically nothing against them.
• 23:28
  Speaker 5: They have no extra base hits, a 167 average, 452 OPS,
• 23:32
  Speaker 5: 6-3 strikeout walk ratio.
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: So Cantillo does draw a good matchup here.
• 23:37
  Speaker 5: So I'm not convinced that he's actually going to pitch
• 23:41
  Speaker 5: that poorly here. Grayson Rodriguez is pitching for Anaheim. Not
• 23:45
  Speaker 5: a good season for him, but he is trying to
• 23:47
  Speaker 5: come back from injury, and he looked like his career
• 23:51
  Speaker 5: might have been starting to take off back when he
• 23:52
  Speaker 5: was with Baltimore, and then an injury totally derailed him.
• 23:56
  Speaker 5: He's got a 6.41 ERA here, 1.53 whip, bad numbers,
• 24:01
  Speaker 5: really bad at home, 8.82 home ERA, really, really bad. However,
• 24:07
  Speaker 5: he was really good last time out at Houston, gave
• 24:10
  Speaker 5: up no earned runs in seven innings. Six strikeouts, two walks.
• 24:14
  Speaker 5: He might be trending in the right direction here, man.
• 24:16
  Speaker 5: He's actually had a decent month of August. He's had
• 24:18
  Speaker 5: two really good starts in August, although both of them
• 24:20
  Speaker 5: were on the road. His one home start wasn't that
• 24:23
  Speaker 5: good against Kansas City, so yeah, that isn't a great sign.
• 24:26
  Speaker 5: Also wasn't really good on the road at Miami either,
• 24:29
  Speaker 5: but he's definitely improving. He's definitely pitching better, so I
• 24:32
  Speaker 5: don't think he's just like an absolute blind fade here,
• 24:36
  Speaker 5: although his overall numbers are not really good here.
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: Hit rate too high, walk rate too high.
• 24:41
  Speaker 5: Strikeout rate is okay, but he seems to be trending
• 24:44
  Speaker 5: in the right direction.
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: A little bit here.
• 24:45
  Speaker 5: His strikeout walk ratio is still not good because the
• 24:48
  Speaker 5: walks are bad. Strikeout per nine is kind of on
• 24:51
  Speaker 5: its way back up a little bit, but his strikeout
• 24:53
  Speaker 5: walk ratio in August, like I said, is actually good.
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: However, he isn't good against Cleveland.
• 24:59
  Speaker 5: 23 career at-bats, 304 average allowed, 776 OPS, one strikeout,
• 25:03
  Speaker 5: three walks. So given that Cleveland, I think, does have
• 25:06
  Speaker 5: the motivational edge here plus the starting pitching edge, I'd.
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: Lean Cleveland in this one. The money doesn't agree.
• 25:14
  Speaker 5: 79% of tickets, 69% of the cash on Cleveland.
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: But Cleveland would be the way I would be looking here.
• 25:20
  Speaker 5: I don't know if I'd want to go full game, though,
• 25:23
  Speaker 5: because both bullpens are just totally untrustworthy here after yesterday's
• 25:29
  Speaker 5: onslaught of pitching that needed to come into the game.
• 25:31
  Speaker 5: Although Cleveland generally is the better bullpen, so maybe they
• 25:34
  Speaker 5: will handle that better. You'll be paying like minus 130
• 25:38
  Speaker 5: something for the full game. If you take Cleveland first five,
• 25:41
  Speaker 5: which I think might be the best way to play this,
• 25:43
  Speaker 5: is Cleveland first five, you're going to be looking at
• 25:45
  Speaker 5: a higher price. So you're probably going to be looking
• 25:47
  Speaker 5: at having to go like minus half run on the
• 25:51
  Speaker 5: run line maybe or something like that. But I think
• 25:52
  Speaker 5: that is a valid way to play this game. And
• 25:55
  Speaker 5: I would also lean over in this game still, even
• 25:57
  Speaker 5: though Cantillo looks like he matches up pretty well here.
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: He is very, very walk heavy. I don't trust G-Rod.
• 26:04
  Speaker 5: In this particular matchup, even though he looked good last
• 26:06
  Speaker 5: time out, he's been awful at home. Both pitchers are
• 26:09
  Speaker 5: in their bad home road split here. And the bullpens
• 26:13
  Speaker 5: are just totally shot right now. So I think there
• 26:15
  Speaker 5: are more indicators towards an over than an under. Although
• 26:17
  Speaker 5: the money looks like it's slightly indicating towards the under.
• 26:20
  Speaker 5: Although the under looks public as well, which usually you
• 26:24
  Speaker 5: don't see public unders. So most of this is probably
• 26:27
  Speaker 5: professional money, which kind of scares me. But I would
• 26:31
  Speaker 5: lean over the eight and a half in that one.
• 26:33
  Speaker 5: And I would lean Cleveland first five or whatever. I
• 26:39
  Speaker 5: agree with the over in that game. That is the
• 26:42
  Speaker 5: way I would play that game if you're going to
• 26:43
  Speaker 5: play it.
• 26:46
  Speaker 4: It works.
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: Oh, yes. Yes, of course, yeah. That's fine, man. Keep
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: fucking with me, you know. I'm an ass.
• 26:54
  Speaker 5: I'm stubborn, whatever. But, yes, I'll talk about that game
• 26:58
  Speaker 5: when I get to it. But, yeah, I think the
• 26:59
  Speaker 5: over is my strongest lean in that game.
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: All right. Where was I going next?
• 27:06
  Speaker 5: Oh, this next game is my only baseball play, so
• 27:08
  Speaker 5: we do have a late afternoon play here. Late afternoon
• 27:12
  Speaker 5: on the East Coast, but it is an afternoon game
• 27:14
  Speaker 5: where it's being played.
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: My only play here is Philadelphia-Seattle under the 7th.
• 27:25
  Speaker 5: It's a low total, man, and it's low for a reason.
• 27:27
  Speaker 5: I think you can definitely find a 7 out there.
• 27:29
  Speaker 5: You've got to pay a little bit of juice. I
• 27:31
  Speaker 5: don't see any 7. I did see maybe one 7.5,
• 27:34
  Speaker 5: but it was like minus 135 or maybe even worse.
• 27:38
  Speaker 5: So I'm like, yeah, I don't want to pay that
• 27:40
  Speaker 5: much just to get the hook. So I'll deal with it,
• 27:42
  Speaker 5: and if it lands 7, we'll push the bet. But
• 27:45
  Speaker 5: I think this is going to be a low-scoring game
• 27:47
  Speaker 5: with Philly and Seattle here. You know I like playing
• 27:49
  Speaker 5: unders in Seattle generally just because it's a Pitcher-friendly park,
• 27:53
  Speaker 5: but people might be scared off of this because the
• 27:56
  Speaker 5: 7 is a low number, and the first game of
• 27:59
  Speaker 5: the series went over with Seattle winning 9-2. Yesterday did
• 28:02
  Speaker 5: go under, though. Seattle won again, 4-1. Seattle's playing with
• 28:06
  Speaker 5: some motivation here, man, because they could still make the playoffs.
• 28:09
  Speaker 5: Their route to the playoffs is probably going to be
• 28:11
  Speaker 5: having to win their division, and they're not too far
• 28:14
  Speaker 5: off right now. And Seattle, I thought, would win the
• 28:17
  Speaker 5: division again, man. That was what I said in my
• 28:19
  Speaker 5: season preview. And I said Houston would probably be in
• 28:22
  Speaker 5: the mix and that Texas might be as well, so
• 28:25
  Speaker 5: I was okay with predicting this division. A lot of
• 28:29
  Speaker 5: people didn't like Houston, but I was a little bit
• 28:31
  Speaker 5: higher on them than other people. Anyway, Seattle is the
• 28:36
  Speaker 5: more motivated team here. Like Philly has an easier chance
• 28:39
  Speaker 5: to make the play, like a better chance to make
• 28:40
  Speaker 5: the playoffs at this point. Both teams should be kind
• 28:43
  Speaker 5: of motivated here though. Philly trying to avoid the sweep,
• 28:46
  Speaker 5: you know, usually a team like that is going to
• 28:48
  Speaker 5: show up to try to avoid the sweep, but I'm
• 28:50
  Speaker 5: not going to try to pick the side here. I'm
• 28:52
  Speaker 5: expecting it to be a low scoring game. and probably
• 28:55
  Speaker 5: a close game if that's the case. Seattle only used
• 28:58
  Speaker 5: two relief pitchers yesterday, although.
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: They did use Munoz, a.k.a.
• 29:02
  Speaker 5: Senor Smoke, who is their closer, although he hadn't pitched
• 29:06
  Speaker 5: in three days. So I guess theoretically he could be
• 29:08
  Speaker 5: available again. I'm okay with leaving the bullpens in here
• 29:12
  Speaker 5: because I think both starting pitchers are kind of grinders,
• 29:15
  Speaker 5: and they could get you through six-plus innings here, so
• 29:19
  Speaker 5: that could save the bullpens a little bit. These bullpens
• 29:22
  Speaker 5: are also not total trash, but they're mediocre. Philadelphia used
• 29:26
  Speaker 5: three relief pitchers yesterday, but I don't believe they used
• 29:28
  Speaker 5: their better relievers because it was a save situation for Seattle.
• 29:33
  Speaker 5: The bullpens, I think, you know, Seattle, they have more
• 29:36
  Speaker 5: talent in their bullpen than what these numbers have reflected
• 29:39
  Speaker 5: this year.
• 29:40
  Speaker 3: They're ranked 20th in bullpen. I know these numbers don't
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: look that good.
• 29:43
  Speaker 5: Philly is 18th, but I think given that the starters,
• 29:46
  Speaker 5: I think, can get us deep into this game, this
• 29:49
  Speaker 5: is the way I'm going to play it and get
• 29:51
  Speaker 5: on this key number. You can play under first five,
• 29:54
  Speaker 5: but you know how much I hate that recently. You're
• 29:57
  Speaker 5: probably going to be looking at a three on it
• 29:59
  Speaker 5: in the first five. I don't like playing the three in.
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: The first five, man.
• 30:03
  Speaker 5: I like to try to at least get four, and
• 30:05
  Speaker 5: there's no way you're going to get a four in
• 30:06
  Speaker 5: this game. So I'll just extend it to the full
• 30:09
  Speaker 5: game and hope that we get some good performances from
• 30:12
  Speaker 5: these starters here, some deep performances. go deep, penetrate the
• 30:17
  Speaker 5: game deeply. We do have some offenses that aren't really
• 30:21
  Speaker 5: that great here. Seattle's offense, 27th, although they're playing a
• 30:24
  Speaker 5: little bit better recently, but they're definitely a fadeable offense.
• 30:28
  Speaker 5: Philly is also not as good on the road offensively.
• 30:30
  Speaker 5: They've been better generally recently. They're 18th tied with Arizona
• 30:34
  Speaker 5: and Kansas City, but Philadelphia has not been as good
• 30:37
  Speaker 5: of an offense on the road, and as you can see,
• 30:39
  Speaker 5: this series, their offense has been Nothing like they only
• 30:42
  Speaker 5: have three runs in the series. So I think both
• 30:44
  Speaker 5: offenses are fadable here, but a lot of this has
• 30:47
  Speaker 5: to do with the starting pitching.
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: Obviously we're going to back both starters here. Jesus Lizardo
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: for Philly.
• 30:53
  Speaker 5: He's been really good this season and probably better than
• 30:55
  Speaker 5: his numbers might even suggest 3.35 ERA 1.15 whip. His
• 31:01
  Speaker 5: numbers looked bad earlier in the season, but he's gotten
• 31:03
  Speaker 5: those numbers under control. And one consistent thing for him
• 31:06
  Speaker 5: for the entire season has been he's been really good
• 31:09
  Speaker 5: on the road all season.
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: He is getting better at home, but he's always been
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: good on the road. 1.95 road ERA.
• 31:17
  Speaker 5: At least this season he has been, but I think
• 31:18
  Speaker 5: last season that was the case too. But yeah, he's
• 31:21
  Speaker 5: been pretty much dominant on the road.
• 31:24
  Speaker 3: Last couple starts....
• 31:27
  Speaker 5: He didn't go too deep into that last start, whatever,
• 31:29
  Speaker 5: but Philly keeps winning his starts. They win the majority
• 31:32
  Speaker 5: of his starts, although I know I'm not picking a
• 31:33
  Speaker 5: side here, but his strikeout rate has been really high recently.
• 31:37
  Speaker 5: Nine-plus strikeouts in his last three starts. He's not walking
• 31:40
  Speaker 5: many people either, not allowing that many hits, so he's
• 31:43
  Speaker 5: obviously in good form right now. He's pitching really well.
• 31:46
  Speaker 5: He's got a low hit rate, and as I pointed
• 31:48
  Speaker 5: out not too long ago, that graphic that was up
• 31:51
  Speaker 5: there that was on Twitter with the top 10 expected
• 31:54
  Speaker 5: ERAs this year from like Baseball Savant, whatever.
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: Both pitchers in this game were in that graphic.
• 32:01
  Speaker 5: Luzardo and Wu were both top 10 expected ERA, which means...
• 32:05
  Speaker 5: Their underlying metrics have been really good, no matter what
• 32:08
  Speaker 5: their ERA actually says. But Luzardo does have a low
• 32:11
  Speaker 5: hit rate, high strikeout rate, one of the highest in baseball, actually.
• 32:15
  Speaker 5: And his walk rate is the one number that's not great,
• 32:18
  Speaker 5: but it's not bad. Strikeout walk ratio is good. It's
• 32:21
  Speaker 5: actually one of the highest he's had in his career, actually.
• 32:24
  Speaker 5: So he's having a really good season. And his strikeout
• 32:27
  Speaker 5: per nine is also the highest that he's posted, except
• 32:30
  Speaker 5: for like a short period. season when he was with
• 32:32
  Speaker 5: Oakland long ago, which I forget. I forget him being
• 32:35
  Speaker 5: even be, I don't even remember him being on Oakland.
• 32:39
  Speaker 5: Lizardo also has been good against Seattle. They have 61
• 32:41
  Speaker 5: at bats against them, 29 strikeouts. He has a huge
• 32:45
  Speaker 5: strikeout rate against them. Eight walks, 230 average, 696 OPS.
• 32:49
  Speaker 5: They do have some power hitting they've been able to
• 32:51
  Speaker 5: do against them, but Other than that, whatever. They have
• 32:55
  Speaker 5: home runs from Julio Rodriguez, who is one of the
• 32:57
  Speaker 5: better hitters on the team, and Patrick Wisdom. I honestly
• 33:01
  Speaker 5: have no idea who the fuck that even is.
• 33:03
  Speaker 3: Great name, though. That must mean he's an intelligent batter.
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: I have no idea.
• 33:09
  Speaker 5: And like I said, we're backing Brian Wu on the
• 33:12
  Speaker 5: other side here, too. I've always liked Wu. I've always
• 33:15
  Speaker 5: thought he was a good pitcher. This year, his ERA
• 33:17
  Speaker 5: is misleading, in my opinion, at 4.1.
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: He's been a lot better than that.
• 33:22
  Speaker 5: As I said, his expected ERA is in the top
• 33:25
  Speaker 5: 10 in baseball, or at least it was when that
• 33:27
  Speaker 5: graphic came out a couple weeks ago. 1.08 whip is good.
• 33:31
  Speaker 5: Indicates his ERA should be lower than that. Now, his
• 33:33
  Speaker 5: numbers are a little bit worse than what he's put
• 33:35
  Speaker 5: up in the past because he's had some really bad
• 33:38
  Speaker 5: road performances this year, but he started to pitch better
• 33:41
  Speaker 5: on the road recently, and guess what?
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: We're not on the road here.
• 33:44
  Speaker 5: We're at home where he has a 1.96 ERA and
• 33:47
  Speaker 5: has a ridiculous 164 upon a batting average, so he's
• 33:51
  Speaker 5: been excellent at home. These pitchers both have extreme home
• 33:55
  Speaker 5: road splits, and they both line up in favor of
• 33:58
  Speaker 5: the pitchers in this game, so I love that too.
• 34:01
  Speaker 5: Wu has been in good form recently, striking out a
• 34:04
  Speaker 5: decent amount of guys here, even though he's not a
• 34:05
  Speaker 5: huge strikeout pitcher, but he's only allowed two runs in
• 34:09
  Speaker 5: 18 innings this month and only nine hits, 15 strikeouts,
• 34:12
  Speaker 5: three walks. Yeah, he's pitching well recently. Pretty low hit
• 34:16
  Speaker 5: rate on the season. He really doesn't walk anybody either.
• 34:19
  Speaker 5: His strikeout rate is almost one per inning too, so again,
• 34:21
  Speaker 5: these numbers are good across the board, so yeah. You
• 34:25
  Speaker 5: can kind of tell the advanced analytics guys will tell you, yeah,
• 34:29
  Speaker 5: his ERA should be lower than it is. His strikeout
• 34:31
  Speaker 5: walk ratio, not as good as it was the past
• 34:33
  Speaker 5: couple seasons. It is still pretty good. A strikeout per
• 34:37
  Speaker 5: nine is lower than last year, but still not too bad.
• 34:40
  Speaker 5: Against the Phillies, he's also been good. They have 30
• 34:43
  Speaker 5: at-bats against him. They have no extra base hits. Seven strikeouts,
• 34:46
  Speaker 5: two walks, 167 average, 385 OPS.
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: I like it.
• 34:51
  Speaker 5: Both pitchers have good matchup numbers here. They both are
• 34:55
  Speaker 5: in their positive home road splits here. They're both good.
• 34:58
  Speaker 5: I think they're both actually maybe even underrated. Their ERAs,
• 35:02
  Speaker 5: I think, are both, like their expected ERAs in both
• 35:05
  Speaker 5: cases are lower than what their actual ERAs are.
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: So, yeah, let's do it. Under is my only baseball
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: play here in Philly, Seattle. Let me see here. And, yeah,
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: the money seems to be indicating that way.
• 35:21
  Speaker 5: 63% of tickets, 86% of the cash on the under. Obviously,
• 35:25
  Speaker 5: the odds makers think it's a low-scoring game because they've
• 35:27
  Speaker 5: thrown a 7 out there. I think you probably have
• 35:30
  Speaker 5: to get to this because this number is getting juiced. So, yeah,
• 35:34
  Speaker 5: I would probably pay up to about minus 125 to
• 35:36
  Speaker 5: get it under 7. But you can find minus 120,
• 35:40
  Speaker 5: minus 118 is out there right now at DK.
• 35:43
  Speaker 3: But, yeah, I would probably get on that.
• 35:46
  Speaker 5: It's my only play of the day in baseball, so
• 35:48
  Speaker 5: I do feel strongly about that one, and you can
• 35:50
  Speaker 5: see why.
• 35:51
  Speaker 3: I just gave you the explanation for it. You're a bookie.
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: You need more books, man.
• 35:57
  Speaker 5: You could still do it at six and a half,
• 35:59
  Speaker 5: although seven is a key number, but.
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I would do that.
• 36:04
  Speaker 5: I would pay the minus 125 to get it under
• 36:06
  Speaker 5: seven and get it on that key number.
• 36:07
  Speaker 3: However, I will say that.
• 36:11
  Speaker 5: Just from the overall perspective of the big picture, if
• 36:15
  Speaker 5: you blindly play Major League Baseball games under 6.5, you
• 36:19
  Speaker 5: actually will profit by doing that. That's been the case
• 36:23
  Speaker 5: over the last several years, at least, I think. I
• 36:26
  Speaker 5: don't like to do it, though, because it's... I just
• 36:29
  Speaker 5: can't do it, because a 7 is a key number.
• 36:32
  Speaker 5: But some professionals will tell you that you should, because
• 36:35
  Speaker 5: the oddsmakers put it at 6.5, knowing it's going to
• 36:38
  Speaker 5: be really low... that they're expecting it to be a
• 36:40
  Speaker 5: really low scoring game and trying to keep people from
• 36:43
  Speaker 5: putting money on it. Like they're trying to get you from,
• 36:47
  Speaker 5: they're trying to prevent you from playing the under there,
• 36:50
  Speaker 5: you know? Um, but I still don't really, I don't
• 36:53
  Speaker 5: like doing it personally. Maybe it's just, maybe I'm a pussy.
• 36:57
  Speaker 5: Maybe that's my, you know, just my opinion, but I
• 36:59
  Speaker 5: found a good number on the seven here anyway. But yeah,
• 37:01
  Speaker 5: I think minus one 25, I would say is the
• 37:04
  Speaker 5: cutoff for me on that. Uh, cause it is such
• 37:06
  Speaker 5: a key number. If you wanted to go under 6.5,
• 37:08
  Speaker 5: I wouldn't disagree with it. Everything points towards an under
• 37:12
  Speaker 5: in that game.
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: This is also why I recommend living in a state
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: that has a lot of books available to you and
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: having an account at every single one that you can
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: because then you can find a better number.
• 37:24
  Speaker 5: You can shop around. Pittsburgh at San Diego. We won
• 37:29
  Speaker 5: on the under in the first game of the series.
• 37:31
  Speaker 5: I leaned under yesterday, and it definitely went under. It
• 37:34
  Speaker 5: was a 1-0 Pittsburgh win. Paul Skeens was actually awesome
• 37:38
  Speaker 5: in the game yesterday, and he was throwing like 99
• 37:40
  Speaker 5: miles an hour again. So Skeens maybe having that extra
• 37:44
  Speaker 5: rest or whatever. Maybe he's not injured anymore. I don't
• 37:47
  Speaker 5: know what the deal was with him, man, but he
• 37:49
  Speaker 5: looked really good last night. The pitching was really good
• 37:52
  Speaker 5: in the game all around last night. But now Pittsburgh
• 37:56
  Speaker 5: is on the verge of a sweep here. They're playing
• 37:59
  Speaker 5: with some motivation here, man, for whatever reason, even though
• 38:01
  Speaker 5: I think they're kind of a dead team at this point.
• 38:03
  Speaker 5: But they rolled skeins out there yesterday. Some people thought
• 38:07
  Speaker 5: they'd shut them down for the rest of the season
• 38:09
  Speaker 5: and try to let them heal and whatever because Pittsburgh
• 38:13
  Speaker 5: probably isn't going anywhere. But they're playing well in this series.
• 38:16
  Speaker 5: San Diego is probably the more motivated team, though, because
• 38:19
  Speaker 5: now they're not only trying to avoid a sweep, but
• 38:22
  Speaker 5: they're also– in the mix for the playoffs here. So
• 38:26
  Speaker 5: they're going to be trying to make the playoffs as well. Pittsburgh,
• 38:29
  Speaker 5: I don't know if they're going to look ahead to St.
• 38:31
  Speaker 5: Louis next, although it is a divisional series. As far
• 38:35
  Speaker 5: as the bullpens here, San Diego has the better bullpen.
• 38:37
  Speaker 5: I think there's no question about that. Although they used
• 38:39
  Speaker 5: Mason Miller yesterday, even though it was not a save situation.
• 38:43
  Speaker 5: Now they've used him four of the last five days.
• 38:46
  Speaker 5: So he probably is not available today. So that's not
• 38:48
  Speaker 5: a good thing for San Diego. They only used two
• 38:51
  Speaker 5: relief pitchers yesterday, though. And they do have some other
• 38:54
  Speaker 5: good relief pitchers. Pittsburgh used three. I'll still give San
• 38:58
  Speaker 5: Diego the edge in the bullpen. They're number five, but
• 39:01
  Speaker 5: I think they're possibly a little bit better than that.
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: Well, I don't know.
• 39:04
  Speaker 5: I mean, you have, I would say you have five
• 39:06
  Speaker 5: really good bullpens this year and it's Red Sox, Yankees, Braves, Brewers,
• 39:11
  Speaker 5: and Padres.
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: I don't know how we should really order them, but.
• 39:14
  Speaker 5: I think there's a gap after those five bullpens. I
• 39:17
  Speaker 5: think there is a noticeable gap, um, to the rest
• 39:20
  Speaker 5: of them. Uh, And Pittsburgh is, where are they at?
• 39:24
  Speaker 5: They're 22nd, although their ERA is not that bad. And
• 39:28
  Speaker 5: they kind of bolstered their bullpen a little bit at
• 39:30
  Speaker 5: the trade deadline, which seems like it was all for naught.
• 39:34
  Speaker 5: As far as the offenses, Pittsburgh is number five offensively.
• 39:38
  Speaker 5: San Diego's 23rd, but they've been definitely better since the
• 39:41
  Speaker 5: All-Star break. Bubba Chandler is getting the start for Pittsburgh.
• 39:46
  Speaker 5: He's definitely the better of the two starting pitchers here.
• 39:48
  Speaker 5: So even though San Diego should have the motivational edge
• 39:51
  Speaker 5: here and they're favored, this pitching matchup I think definitely
• 39:55
  Speaker 5: favors Pittsburgh. Chandler has the way higher ceiling out of
• 39:59
  Speaker 5: these two pitchers. He's just the more talented pitcher. And
• 40:02
  Speaker 5: he's starting to pitch well again. He pitched really well
• 40:04
  Speaker 5: last year. This year he hasn't had a great season,
• 40:07
  Speaker 5: a 4.38 ERA, 1.37 whip, but he's still really.
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: Young, and he's got a lot of potential. He's not
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: as good on.
• 40:14
  Speaker 5: The road, really, 4.54 road ERA, but this is a
• 40:17
  Speaker 5: pitcher-friendly environment at least. He's striking out a lot of
• 40:20
  Speaker 5: guys recently, but he is walking a lot of guys.
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: Some of these starts, he's not going too deep.
• 40:25
  Speaker 5: He struggled last time out, but it was against the Dodgers,
• 40:28
  Speaker 5: so you might give him a pass for that because
• 40:30
  Speaker 5: other than that, he's had a really good month of August.
• 40:34
  Speaker 5: Even though a couple of starts, he didn't go that
• 40:35
  Speaker 5: deep into them. He's got a low hit rate here.
• 40:38
  Speaker 5: Strikeout rate is okay. You know what his problem is.
• 40:40
  Speaker 5: His problem is the walks. He's got to fix that,
• 40:43
  Speaker 5: but recently it's been a little bit better at the
• 40:45
  Speaker 5: very least, although still pretty high.
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: His strikeout walk ratio is a problem. Last year, it
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: was awesome. So he's got to find some middle ground here, man.
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: Like last year, small sample size, maybe a little bit misleading,
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: but he was really, really good.
• 40:58
  Speaker 5: So you know what he could do. This year, the
• 41:01
  Speaker 5: walks have just been a huge problem for him, though.
• 41:04
  Speaker 5: And he's got to fix that because last.
• 41:05
  Speaker 3: Year, it wasn't a problem.
• 41:07
  Speaker 5: Strikeout per nine is pretty good and almost as good
• 41:10
  Speaker 5: as it was last year.
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: Numbers against San Diego are kind of mediocre.
• 41:13
  Speaker 5: Only 12 at-bats, though. They only have seven hitters who
• 41:16
  Speaker 5: have faced him, I think. 250 average, 771 OPS, 3-4
• 41:21
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio.
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: So again, the walks are a bit of an issue here.
• 41:25
  Speaker 5: San Diego hasn't really been able to hit him well,
• 41:27
  Speaker 5: but they do have a bunch of walks against him.
• 41:29
  Speaker 5: But still, I think Chandler is preferable to Randy Vasquez,
• 41:32
  Speaker 5: who's on the other side here. Although Vasquez has pitched
• 41:35
  Speaker 5: well recently. I saw him pitch because Clint was here.
• 41:39
  Speaker 5: Clint is a Liberty Locked pod, Liberty Lockdown. He's a
• 41:43
  Speaker 5: San Diego fan because.
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: That is where he's from. So he roots for the
• 41:47
  Speaker 3: Padres and the Chargers.
• 41:50
  Speaker 5: We watched the game, eating some Chinese food last Friday night,
• 41:53
  Speaker 5: and Vasquez pitched and did well in that game, and
• 41:55
  Speaker 5: they won that game.
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: That was a season sweep, or excuse me, season sweep, series.
• 42:01
  Speaker 5: Sweep for San Diego against Minnesota. Vasquez 4.19 ERA, but 1.31
• 42:05
  Speaker 5: whip is not that good. He's still not that good
• 42:10
  Speaker 5: of a pitcher, man, although he has been good this month.
• 42:12
  Speaker 5: But he doesn't strike anybody out, although a lot of
• 42:14
  Speaker 5: times he has some major walk issues. But this month,
• 42:17
  Speaker 5: he's not really walking anybody. So he's putting very few
• 42:20
  Speaker 5: guys on base this month. So he's in decent form
• 42:23
  Speaker 5: right now. But the advanced analytics guys hate him because
• 42:26
  Speaker 5: he doesn't strike guys out. I usually don't like him
• 42:28
  Speaker 5: because his whip is high, and he usually walks too
• 42:31
  Speaker 5: many people. And that's been the case for the season. Actually,
• 42:35
  Speaker 5: his hit rate is too high on the season as well.
• 42:37
  Speaker 5: His walk rate isn't really that great. His strikeout rate
• 42:39
  Speaker 5: is quite low. So that means you know what that means.
• 42:42
  Speaker 5: His strikeout walk ratio is not good. It really has
• 42:45
  Speaker 5: never been. His strikeout per nine is not very good either.
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: So.
• 42:49
  Speaker 5: At some point, I think he's going to start regressing
• 42:52
  Speaker 5: again here, but he is pitching pretty well, at least
• 42:54
  Speaker 5: for the moment. However, he's not been good against Pittsburgh,
• 42:57
  Speaker 5: although it's a small 20 at-bat sample size. Six of
• 43:01
  Speaker 5: their hitters have faced him, but they've done a lot
• 43:03
  Speaker 5: of damage against him. 450 average, 1127 OPS, no strikeouts
• 43:08
  Speaker 5: in six walks. So Vasquez does not have good matchup
• 43:12
  Speaker 5: numbers here. I think I have to leave Pittsburgh first
• 43:15
  Speaker 5: five here, man. I think that's the better way to
• 43:17
  Speaker 5: play it. Chandler just has the way higher ceiling. I
• 43:20
  Speaker 5: don't love Pittsburgh's bullpen at all, so I would exclude
• 43:23
  Speaker 5: them from that equation, but San Diego still being the
• 43:26
  Speaker 5: better bullpen. But I think Chandler has the upper hand
• 43:29
  Speaker 5: over Vasquez, even though San Diego should be motivated to try.
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: To avoid the sweep here.
• 43:34
  Speaker 5: San Diego looks like they're public, but also have some
• 43:36
  Speaker 5: professional money on them. 75% of tickets, 80% of the
• 43:40
  Speaker 5: cash on them. They're about minus 130, but I would
• 43:43
  Speaker 5: look Pittsburgh first five. You might be able to find
• 43:46
  Speaker 5: them as an underdog in the first five. They won't
• 43:48
  Speaker 5: be as big of an underdog as they are in
• 43:50
  Speaker 5: the full game, but you still might find plus money
• 43:52
  Speaker 5: on them in the first five. Under eight and a
• 43:54
  Speaker 5: half is also getting money here.
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: I don't know if I like that, though.
• 43:59
  Speaker 5: This game, out of the three games in the series,
• 44:01
  Speaker 5: this game is the least underlooking to me out of
• 44:04
  Speaker 5: the three, so that is what I will say about that.
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: I don't think I have a whole lot else to
• 44:09
  Speaker 3: say about that.
• 44:11
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh over their team total is also one potential way
• 44:15
  Speaker 5: of playing that because they match up well against Vasquez.
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: If you think Chandler's a little bit of a wild
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: card here, too unpredictable.
• 44:23
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh, to score some runs, especially because they're the underdog there,
• 44:28
  Speaker 5: you probably only need them to score like four runs
• 44:31
  Speaker 5: here to get over their total. So that might be
• 44:33
  Speaker 5: a decent way to look in that game as well.
• 44:36
  Speaker 5: Boston and Miami, the Red Sox won in an extra
• 44:39
  Speaker 5: inning game yesterday. I think the first game seemed like
• 44:42
  Speaker 5: it was going to go to extra innings, but I
• 44:43
  Speaker 5: think it didn't. Yesterday went 11 innings. The Red Sox
• 44:48
  Speaker 5: tried to blow the game pretty much, but they wound
• 44:50
  Speaker 5: up winning with a grand slam from Jaron Duran in
• 44:54
  Speaker 5: the 11th. And everybody, Red Sox fans are still going
• 44:57
  Speaker 5: to hate the guy because the Red Sox are much,
• 44:59
  Speaker 5: like the fan base is a bunch of leftist idiots
• 45:02
  Speaker 5: who still Have to hate Duran because, oh no, he
• 45:05
  Speaker 5: said a mean word like three years ago.
• 45:08
  Speaker 3: Just shut up, man.
• 45:10
  Speaker 5: Duran, I know he hasn't had the best season hitting
• 45:12
  Speaker 5: for average, but he's hitting for power and stealing a
• 45:14
  Speaker 5: lot of bases. So he's aggressive running the bases. His
• 45:18
  Speaker 5: fielding's been decent for the most part. Yeah, like fuck
• 45:22
  Speaker 5: the Duran haters.
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: I love Duran.
• 45:24
  Speaker 5: Huge hit for him yesterday with that grand slam to
• 45:28
  Speaker 5: win the game.
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: Clutch hitting there. But now the Red Sox are in a.
• 45:32
  Speaker 5: Situation where they're looking to sweep the Marlins here, and
• 45:36
  Speaker 5: you know who the Red Sox play next because it's
• 45:38
  Speaker 5: the most hyped matchup of the weekend, Red Sox-Yankees in.
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: New York over the weekend. So the Red Sox might
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: be looking ahead here, man.
• 45:47
  Speaker 5: The Red Sox will have tomorrow off, which should help
• 45:50
  Speaker 5: them rest their bullpen after yesterday having to use a
• 45:53
  Speaker 5: lot of relief pitchers yesterday. Don't know what's going to
• 45:56
  Speaker 5: happen in this game though, man. We need Sonny Gray
• 45:59
  Speaker 5: to pitch well here and go deep into this game
• 46:02
  Speaker 5: and save the bullpen a little bit. Although, like I said,
• 46:04
  Speaker 5: tomorrow the Red Sox are off, so whatever. But this
• 46:07
  Speaker 5: is not a good spot for the Red Sox situationally.
• 46:10
  Speaker 5: The Marlins are going to be motivated to try to
• 46:12
  Speaker 5: avoid the sweep here. Red Sox might be looking ahead
• 46:14
  Speaker 5: to the Yankees at this point. One thing I will
• 46:17
  Speaker 5: say though is, If you have watched the games in
• 46:20
  Speaker 5: the series, the Marlins fans are not really showing up.
• 46:23
  Speaker 5: There are not a lot of fans in the stands,
• 46:26
  Speaker 5: and half of the crowd is Red Sox fans. Because
• 46:29
  Speaker 5: you know the New England fans, the Red Sox have
• 46:31
  Speaker 5: a fan base all over the place, but also especially
• 46:34
  Speaker 5: in Florida. because of all the snowbirds and whatever, even
• 46:38
  Speaker 5: though you'd think they'd be up here during the summer,
• 46:40
  Speaker 5: but there are a lot of New Englanders that live
• 46:43
  Speaker 5: in Florida, so there are a lot of Red Sox fans.
• 46:47
  Speaker 5: That's something to think about. Miami does not have as
• 46:50
  Speaker 5: much of a home advantage when they're playing the Red Sox.
• 46:53
  Speaker 5: and they just can't get fans to show up to
• 46:55
  Speaker 5: the ballpark either. Miami used a bunch of relief pitchers.
• 46:58
  Speaker 5: They used six guys out of the bullpen, or seven, actually.
• 47:02
  Speaker 5: The Red Sox used five, so I would avoid the
• 47:04
  Speaker 5: bullpens today. The bullpens are just overworked because of yesterday,
• 47:08
  Speaker 5: although the Red Sox do have the number one bullpen
• 47:09
  Speaker 5: in baseball, and they did pitch well again yesterday.
• 47:12
  Speaker 3: Miami is okay. They're seventh. I don't think they're that good.
• 47:17
  Speaker 5: They're a decent bullpen, but again, I would still avoid
• 47:19
  Speaker 5: the bullpens here. Red Sox have been awesome offensively since
• 47:23
  Speaker 5: the All-Star break. They're up at number eight now. And
• 47:26
  Speaker 5: even a little bit before the All-Star break, they were
• 47:28
  Speaker 5: starting to turn it around. Miami is number 11. So
• 47:32
  Speaker 5: I do think the Red Sox have the better bullpen
• 47:34
  Speaker 5: and hitting, and they do have the advantage in those
• 47:36
  Speaker 5: departments here. And on the surface, this looks like a
• 47:39
  Speaker 5: mismatch that favors the Red Sox in the starting pitching,
• 47:42
  Speaker 5: but I'm not so sure about that. Sonny Gray is
• 47:45
  Speaker 5: pitching for the Red Sox. He's had one of his
• 47:47
  Speaker 5: best seasons, even though he's older. I think Chad Tracy
• 47:50
  Speaker 5: and whatever, they're, like, managing Gray better. Like, they're not
• 47:54
  Speaker 5: overworking him. He's got a 2.79 ERA, 1.16 whip.
• 47:58
  Speaker 3: Really good stuff here.
• 48:00
  Speaker 5: He's been slightly worse on the road, 2.82 road ERA.
• 48:04
  Speaker 5: His opponent batting average is worse on the road. He's
• 48:07
  Speaker 5: been pitching well still, though. He was a little bit
• 48:09
  Speaker 5: off last time out against San Francisco. Still wound up
• 48:12
  Speaker 5: getting a win, though. And he has– I think he
• 48:14
  Speaker 5: has one of the highest– amount of wins for a
• 48:17
  Speaker 5: starting pitch. He might be leading the league actually in
• 48:20
  Speaker 5: wins with 16. I'm not sure, but he's been pitching well.
• 48:23
  Speaker 5: He's got a lot of strikeouts recently. He's not walking
• 48:26
  Speaker 5: too many guys. These numbers are all pretty good here.
• 48:29
  Speaker 5: low hit rate on the season. Doesn't really walk many guys.
• 48:32
  Speaker 5: Strikeout rate is okay. He's not a huge strikeout pitcher,
• 48:34
  Speaker 5: but he's been pretty good at that this month as well.
• 48:37
  Speaker 5: Overall numbers are good here. Strikeout walk ratio is good,
• 48:40
  Speaker 5: even though it's lower than what he was doing with St.
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: Louis, but I think St.
• 48:43
  Speaker 5: Louis taxed him like last year, he started failing at
• 48:46
  Speaker 5: the end of the season. Hopefully that's not going to
• 48:48
  Speaker 5: happen here, but, um, it seems like he's focusing more
• 48:52
  Speaker 5: on intelligent pitching this year, you know? Um, His strikeout
• 48:56
  Speaker 5: per nine has gone down as a result, but he's
• 48:58
  Speaker 5: still been very effective. Against Miami, however, I know it's
• 49:02
  Speaker 5: a small sample, five hitters a face and 15 at bats,
• 49:05
  Speaker 5: but Miami has had the upper hand against them. They
• 49:08
  Speaker 5: have a 400 average and 1,004 OPS against them. One strikeout,
• 49:12
  Speaker 5: two walks. I don't love that, even though it's a
• 49:15
  Speaker 5: small sample. I wouldn't put too much weight into it.
• 49:17
  Speaker 5: Gray is good, and it's a pitcher for park so
• 49:20
  Speaker 5: i'm not gonna say gray is just gonna go in
• 49:22
  Speaker 5: and get blown up here but i don't really know
• 49:24
  Speaker 5: if i want to back him here like he might
• 49:26
  Speaker 5: have one of his lesser performances here even though he
• 49:29
  Speaker 5: is the better pitcher here against ryan gusto who i
• 49:32
  Speaker 5: don't think is that good gusto 4.37 era 1.34 whip
• 49:35
  Speaker 5: is not very good He's been good at home, though,
• 49:40
  Speaker 5: for the most part, 3.94 home ERA. He is actually
• 49:43
  Speaker 5: pitching okay recently, although he isn't pitching deep.
• 49:46
  Speaker 3: Into most of these games.
• 49:47
  Speaker 5: Sometimes they put an opener in front of him, although
• 49:49
  Speaker 5: recently I think they're just letting him start. But I
• 49:52
  Speaker 5: always point that out when I think a team might
• 49:54
  Speaker 5: use an opener in front of a guy. They might
• 49:56
  Speaker 5: do it here, so I will say if you're going
• 49:58
  Speaker 5: to play this game, I would pick Graham a start,
• 50:00
  Speaker 5: but not pick a starter from Miami because it's going
• 50:03
  Speaker 5: to be gusto or they're going to put an opener
• 50:04
  Speaker 5: in front of him. But they've just been letting him
• 50:06
  Speaker 5: start recently, and he's actually had a pretty good month here.
• 50:09
  Speaker 5: Pretty good strikeout rate, and he's walking almost nobody this month.
• 50:13
  Speaker 5: So he is pitching well here. And Miami's won his
• 50:15
  Speaker 5: last three starts. His hit rate on the season is
• 50:18
  Speaker 5: still too high. His walk rate's not bad, though. And
• 50:21
  Speaker 5: his strikeout rate is actually okay. So Gusto actually isn't
• 50:23
  Speaker 5: that bad, although he is a bit too hittable, and
• 50:26
  Speaker 5: that's why his whip is too high. His strikeout walk
• 50:28
  Speaker 5: ratio is actually not bad this year. So that's a
• 50:31
  Speaker 5: decent indicator, actually, for him. And strikeout per nine isn't
• 50:34
  Speaker 5: really that bad either, so maybe I have to stop
• 50:36
  Speaker 5: shitting on Gusto.
• 50:38
  Speaker 3: He's not that bad.
• 50:40
  Speaker 5: His numbers against the Red Sox, only Eli White has
• 50:43
  Speaker 5: ever faced him, and he's 0-2 with no strikeouts, no.
• 50:46
  Speaker 3: Walks, and an RBI. I'm going to leave Miami in
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: this one, man. I don't love it at all, but...
• 50:54
  Speaker 3: I think that's the way to look.
• 50:55
  Speaker 5: The Red Sox open at minus 160, and they're already
• 50:57
  Speaker 5: down to minus 130-something here. 87% of tickets, 88% of
• 51:01
  Speaker 5: the cash on the Red Sox, but it's a bad spot, man.
• 51:04
  Speaker 5: Miami's a home team trying to avoid a sweep, so
• 51:07
  Speaker 5: it's a bad spot for the Red Sox. They might
• 51:09
  Speaker 5: be looking right past Miami and looking towards the Yankees here.
• 51:12
  Speaker 5: I'm tempted to actually play this, to be honest. Money's
• 51:16
  Speaker 5: also back in the under for what that's worth. Totals
• 51:19
  Speaker 5: at seven and a half. But you know what I
• 51:20
  Speaker 5: always say, when it's a low scoring game, that usually
• 51:23
  Speaker 5: means that there's value on the underdog because if it's
• 51:27
  Speaker 5: low scoring, that means it's more likely to be a
• 51:29
  Speaker 5: closer game, better chance for the underdog to hang around.
• 51:34
  Speaker 5: This is pretty tempting, man. I'm going to be honest here.
• 51:37
  Speaker 5: I mean, the matchup numbers do support this and the
• 51:42
  Speaker 5: spot supports.
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: This as well. Yeah, you know what?
• 51:47
  Speaker 5: I don't like doing this. I don't like adding plays
• 51:49
  Speaker 5: on the fly. I thought it was just going to
• 51:50
  Speaker 5: be my under, and obviously I like that under better,
• 51:53
  Speaker 5: but let me see here.
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: I'm looking.
• 51:58
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, Action Network has very similar percentages here.
• 52:02
  Speaker 5: It just looks like the Red Sox are very public here, man.
• 52:05
  Speaker 5: What can we get with Miami in the first five here?
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah, we can get them as an underdog in the
• 52:10
  Speaker 3: first five. Let's do it.
• 52:13
  Speaker 5: Dude, the stupid gym book here in Massachusetts. I almost
• 52:18
  Speaker 5: said Boston. In Massachusetts here, they have a plus 128
• 52:22
  Speaker 5: on this. On Miami in the first five.
• 52:25
  Speaker 3: Are you kidding me?
• 52:26
  Speaker 5: Full game, the number is around there. First five, it's
• 52:29
  Speaker 5: not really. I'm not going to give it out at that.
• 52:31
  Speaker 3: I mean, that number is just. I don't even know
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: if that number actually exists.
• 52:35
  Speaker 5: Action Network might just be a little bit skewed, but
• 52:37
  Speaker 5: you can find a plus 110 on this right now.
• 52:39
  Speaker 3: This is Miami first five. Let's do it, whatever.
• 52:50
  Speaker 5: And I'll hedge my rooting interest here. This is Miami
• 52:53
  Speaker 5: first five. I'll call it plus 110 here, even though
• 52:56
  Speaker 5: it looks like there is a plus 128.
• 52:58
  Speaker 3: I don't know if that's actually accurate, though. I'd have
• 53:00
  Speaker 3: to go look. at that actual book.
• 53:02
  Speaker 5: And sometimes that book really has limited me just for
• 53:05
  Speaker 5: making smart plays. But we'll take Miami first five there
• 53:10
  Speaker 5: on the money line.
• 53:12
  Speaker 3: All right. Yeah, I don't know why I didn't think
• 53:14
  Speaker 3: about that before. I mean, I think I was just
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: kind of in my mind it was like, oh, Gray
• 53:18
  Speaker 3: is like clearly the better pitcher over Gusto. But I
• 53:21
  Speaker 3: don't know.
• 53:21
  Speaker 5: When you look at Gusto's numbers, he's not that bad.
• 53:26
  Speaker 5: So let's do it. But I would say pick Gray
• 53:27
  Speaker 5: must start and not pick a starter for Miami because
• 53:30
  Speaker 5: If Miami throws an opener in front of Gusto, whatever.
• 53:34
  Speaker 3: But I think Gusto is going to start.
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 53:38
  Speaker 5: And then we'll avoid the bullpens for obvious reasons. I mean,
• 53:41
  Speaker 5: both bullpens are taxed, but Miami's is the lesser of
• 53:44
  Speaker 5: the two anyway.
• 53:45
  Speaker 3: Colorado at Washington.
• 53:47
  Speaker 5: Colorado got a decent performance, at least out of Adams
• 53:51
  Speaker 5: in his major league debut yesterday.
• 53:52
  Speaker 3: Although he didn't go that deep.
• 53:53
  Speaker 5: He did walk some guys, but kept Washington kind of
• 53:56
  Speaker 5: off the board there. And Washington lost the game yesterday.
• 53:59
  Speaker 5: So these teams have split this series as we're now
• 54:02
  Speaker 5: in the evening games here. Actually, the Red Sox-Miami was
• 54:05
  Speaker 5: also an evening game yesterday. This is a matchup between
• 54:09
  Speaker 5: two teams that are going nowhere here, though, Washington and Colorado.
• 54:12
  Speaker 5: They're both bad bullpens, although Washington only used one guy yesterday.
• 54:16
  Speaker 5: Colorado used five. So Washington probably does have a bullpen
• 54:20
  Speaker 5: advantage here. They're also ranked a little bit better than Colorado,
• 54:22
  Speaker 5: 26th versus 27th. I would still avoid both bullpens, though.
• 54:28
  Speaker 5: Colorado is ranked fourth in hitting. Washington is third. Washington's
• 54:33
  Speaker 5: been a little bit worse recently. This pitching matchup is
• 54:36
  Speaker 5: certainly not an elite one, Tanner Gordon is pitching for Colorado.
• 54:40
  Speaker 5: Not a good season. 5.75 ERA, 1.49 whip. However, he
• 54:44
  Speaker 5: is better outside of course field. 2.97 road ERA, but
• 54:49
  Speaker 5: he still is very hittable on the road. 290 batting
• 54:53
  Speaker 5: average allowed on the road. So that ERA is misleadingly
• 54:55
  Speaker 5: low on the road, but he is still better on
• 54:57
  Speaker 5: the road than he is at home.
• 54:59
  Speaker 3: He's been, I don't know what to say, man. I mean,
• 55:02
  Speaker 3: he's just too hittable.
• 55:03
  Speaker 5: Like he doesn't really walk many guys. His strikeout rates
• 55:06
  Speaker 5: have been pretty low as well. He looks like he's
• 55:09
  Speaker 5: kind of been somewhat okay-ish this month. Like, the strikeout
• 55:12
  Speaker 5: walk ratio's not bad, but... ERA is still bad. He's
• 55:15
  Speaker 5: still been way too hittable. Colorado loses most of his games.
• 55:20
  Speaker 5: I mean, they lose most of their games in general.
• 55:22
  Speaker 5: But yeah, he's too hittable on the season. He doesn't
• 55:25
  Speaker 5: walk many guys, and his strikeout rate is kind of
• 55:27
  Speaker 5: okay on the season. So his strikeout walk ratio is
• 55:30
  Speaker 5: pretty good, but he's just way too hittable, man. His
• 55:33
  Speaker 5: strikeout per nine is not exactly terrible, but yeah, he
• 55:37
  Speaker 5: just gets hit around way too much. Washington, though, has
• 55:40
  Speaker 5: not actually been that good against them. They only have
• 55:42
  Speaker 5: 12 at-bats. Six hitters have faced them. 250 average, no
• 55:46
  Speaker 5: extra base hits. 558 OPS, excuse me. Two-to-one strikeout log ratios. Gordon,
• 55:53
  Speaker 5: he might actually do okay here, to be honest. He
• 55:56
  Speaker 5: is better on the road, and he does have decent
• 55:58
  Speaker 5: matchup numbers. Washington is going with Matt Waldron here, who
• 56:02
  Speaker 5: they picked up not too long ago. He's a knuckleball pitcher,
• 56:05
  Speaker 5: and he was on San Diego, and then he was
• 56:07
  Speaker 5: on Toronto very briefly.
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: Pitching out of the bullpen.
• 56:11
  Speaker 5: And I will say, if you're going to play this game,
• 56:12
  Speaker 5: I would probably just play it action because I have
• 56:15
  Speaker 5: no idea if... One or both of these teams might
• 56:19
  Speaker 5: put an opener in front of these guys. It's very
• 56:21
  Speaker 5: hard to say. Washington just picked up Waldron. He has
• 56:25
  Speaker 5: not had a good season. 7.54 ERA, 1.62 whip. However,
• 56:29
  Speaker 5: if you look at his career numbers, he's not that bad.
• 56:33
  Speaker 5: I mean, he's definitely not good, but he's not this bad, usually.
• 56:37
  Speaker 5: When he actually has a prolonged season, he actually wasn't
• 56:40
  Speaker 5: that bad.
• 56:41
  Speaker 3: For San Diego back in 2024.
• 56:43
  Speaker 5: When he actually had his longest season of his career,
• 56:46
  Speaker 5: and he was actually in their starting rotation, he wasn't
• 56:49
  Speaker 5: that bad, like, for whatever reason, these knuckleball pitchers, they
• 56:52
  Speaker 5: have extreme, I mean, we know why they have extreme variance,
• 56:55
  Speaker 5: because the knuckleball is kind of dependent on the atmosphere,
• 56:59
  Speaker 5: like the climate and whatever, but it kind of like
• 57:02
  Speaker 5: evens out over the course of the season, like you
• 57:04
  Speaker 5: saw that with like Tim Wakefield and whatever, like, he'd
• 57:07
  Speaker 5: be widely variant start to start, but season to season,
• 57:11
  Speaker 5: his numbers would be very consistent.
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: Waldron, RIP to Tim Wakefield. I love that guy.
• 57:16
  Speaker 5: He's a Red Sox fan. Put in a lot of
• 57:20
  Speaker 5: years with the Red Sox, man. Even though he did
• 57:23
  Speaker 5: give up that stupid home run to Aaron Boone. Aaron
• 57:27
  Speaker 5: fucking Boone in that bullshit 2003 game. Anyway, Waldron, he
• 57:31
  Speaker 5: has not gone deep into any of his outings here,
• 57:33
  Speaker 5: which is why I was saying, and that was with.
• 57:35
  Speaker 3: Toronto and with.
• 57:38
  Speaker 5: With Washington, excuse me. He has not had any deep
• 57:42
  Speaker 5: outings here. But Washington's won every game that he's appeared in.
• 57:46
  Speaker 5: Although he hasn't been good with Washington. So I don't
• 57:48
  Speaker 5: know what to tell you about that. But they might
• 57:50
  Speaker 5: put an opener in front of him.
• 57:51
  Speaker 3: Like, who knows?
• 57:52
  Speaker 5: Or he might be the opener. Like, I don't know
• 57:55
  Speaker 5: what Washington's doing here, to be honest. He's got a
• 57:58
  Speaker 5: high hit rate on the season. Hasn't really walked that
• 58:01
  Speaker 5: many guys, considering that usually... You see a lot of
• 58:04
  Speaker 5: walks from knuckleball pitchers usually because it's hard to command
• 58:07
  Speaker 5: that pitch. His strikeout rate is somewhat okay. I just
• 58:11
  Speaker 5: don't know what to think, man. He's definitely unpredictable. His
• 58:14
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio is actually pretty good this year, and
• 58:17
  Speaker 5: it's similar to what it was in that one good
• 58:19
  Speaker 5: season that he had. His strikeout per nine is also
• 58:22
  Speaker 5: somewhat okay, but I don't know if I want to
• 58:25
  Speaker 5: really trust him here. Colorado has been able to hit
• 58:27
  Speaker 5: him in 43 at-bats, 395 average, 1,074 OPS, Seven to
• 58:32
  Speaker 5: six strikeout walk ratio. Colorado is familiar with him because
• 58:36
  Speaker 5: he was in their division with San Diego.
• 58:40
  Speaker 3: I don't know what to do here, man.
• 58:42
  Speaker 5: Maybe a Colorado lean here. It's such an unpredictable game.
• 58:47
  Speaker 5: It's one of the most unpredictable on the board here.
• 58:51
  Speaker 3: Where is it? Where's the National League?
• 58:52
  Speaker 5: Here it is. 76% of tickets, 88% of the cash
• 58:56
  Speaker 5: on Washington. They're around minus 120 something here. I would
• 59:01
  Speaker 5: probably lean Colorado first five here. I mean, Gordon has
• 59:05
  Speaker 5: been at least okay on the road and does have
• 59:07
  Speaker 5: the better matchup numbers here. So I think I would
• 59:08
  Speaker 5: lean that way a little bit. towards Colorado first five.
• 59:11
  Speaker 5: I think the other way to play this is probably
• 59:14
  Speaker 5: just still to play the over here. I mean, you
• 59:16
  Speaker 5: got two bad bullpens here. Neither pitcher is anything great.
• 59:20
  Speaker 5: So over the nine probably makes some sense here too.
• 59:22
  Speaker 5: It's a reasonable number there. The money is coming in
• 59:25
  Speaker 5: on the under though.
• 59:27
  Speaker 3: So I don't know.
• 59:28
  Speaker 5: And yesterday's game was a low-scoring game, but the game
• 59:31
  Speaker 5: before that was high-scoring. Houston and the New York Yankees.
• 59:35
  Speaker 5: The Yankees kind of blew the game yesterday. I believe
• 59:38
  Speaker 5: I said over was the way I leaned yesterday, and
• 59:41
  Speaker 5: that was correct. As Houston won the game 9-7 yesterday.
• 59:45
  Speaker 5: That was the first game of this series. As this
• 59:48
  Speaker 5: series actually continues tomorrow. Colorado-Washington continues tomorrow as well, by
• 59:52
  Speaker 5: the way. So most of the remaining games I'm going
• 59:54
  Speaker 5: to talk about continue. The series continues tomorrow. So the
• 59:59
  Speaker 5: Red Sox are actually going to have a rest edge
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 5: against the Yankees in the first game of their series
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 5: against them.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 3: Don't know if it'll be enough.
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 5: The Yankees used four relief pitchers yesterday. Houston also used four.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 5: It was a game where there were a lot of
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 5: runs coming home late, man. It was not an extra
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 5: inning game, but there was a lot of back and
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 5: forth late in that game.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 3: A lot of scoring late in the game.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 5: Bullpen-wise, the Yankees do have a better bullpen.
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 3: They're ranked second. Houston is ranked 13th. Similar usage yesterday, so.
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 5: They're a little bit overworked here, so I don't know
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 5: if I'd really want to back the bullpens here.
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 3: I would probably still back the Yankees over Houston's, though.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 5: As far as the hitting, Houston's been the better offense
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 5: throughout the course of the season. They're number nine. Yankees
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 5: have been struggling for a while now. They're 16th right now. Yesterday,
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 5: both offenses definitely came to hit, though. Don't know if
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 5: that's going to happen in this game or not. We
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 5: don't even know who the Yankees are starting here. It
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 5: was supposed to be Garrett Cole. Cole would be the
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 5: next guy up in the Yankees rotation, but he is
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 5: scheduled to pitch tomorrow in the last game of the series.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 5: So I don't really get what the Yankees are doing here,
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 5: but whatever. It looks like the Yankees are going to
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 5: be going with some sort of bullpen game or they
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 5: might call somebody up. I don't know what they're doing here.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 5: Peter Lambert looks like he is going to pitch for
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 5: Houston here. He's at his breakout season here, although he's
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 5: starting to falter a little bit here later in the season,
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 5: maybe just because he's thrown more innings than he has before.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 5: Sometimes you see that with these guys that aren't used
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 5: to it. They start pitching a bit worse. The advanced
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 5: analytics guys don't really seem to love this guy, but
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 5: his whip has been pretty good all season, 3.68 ERA,
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 5: although his whip has gone up recently to 1.2.
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 3: He's been pretty good on the road, though, 2.98 road ERA.
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 3: He got absolutely blasted last time out against Anaheim, though.
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 5: That is a concern, right? Like Lambert was kind of
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 5: cruising through the season, and then he gets smoked by
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 5: this bad lineup for Anaheim, and that's what's skewing his
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 5: home numbers a bit and skewing his recent numbers. Maybe
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 5: it was an outlier. Like maybe he will pitch better
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 5: again here. I don't know, though, man, because he looks
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 5: like he is starting to pitch a little bit worse.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 5: His hit rate is really good on the season, though.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 5: He's been hard to hit. His walk rate isn't really
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 5: that good. His strikeout rate is pretty good, though. So
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 5: he's been able to strike guys out, but the walks
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 5: have been a concern from him. He is a little
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 5: bit too wild, which makes his strikeout walk ratio not
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 5: that good, although his strikeout rate is good.
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 3: It's the best that he's posted.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 5: In his career, I should say. But yeah, his innings pitch,
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 5: it's not that high still, though. It's in the 120s,
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 5: but the most that he ever threw was 89 to 3rd.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 5: in his one long season as a starter with Colorado,
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 5: or long-ish season with them. It was more than half
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 5: the season.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 3: So I don't know, man.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 5: Maybe he is starting to get burned out throwing this
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 5: many innings, which he's not used to, but he's still
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 5: not really at that number where I think it gets
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 5: too high. His numbers against the Yankees are not good, though.
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 5: In 28 at-bats, 393 average, 1,040 OPS, 5-4 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 5: None of that is good, so.
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 5: I don't really trust Lambert here, given that he looks
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 5: like he's kind of falling out of form. Yankees have
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 5: been able to hit him well. We have no idea
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 5: who the Yankees pitcher is going to be. If you're
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 5: going to play this game right now, I would say
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 5: just take the over. The total's at 8.5 at some
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 5: books here. The worst you're going to find is 9,
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 5: so you'll be right on that key number. Oddsmakers kind
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 5: of expecting it to be a little bit of a
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 5: higher scoring game here. The bats were definitely in sync yesterday,
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 5: so that might continue.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 3: The bats might be in the like they might the
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 3: offenses might have the momentum.
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 5: Right now let's say the money agrees with the over
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 5: here we have 92% of the cash on the under
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 5: 53% of the cash on the over I think that's
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 5: what I would do and you'd be able to pick
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 5: Lambert must start and you can't pick a Yankee starter
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 5: because we have.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 3: No idea who it's gonna be but it looks like it.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 5: Will not be Cole if it was Garrett Cole I
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 5: would not like the over anywhere near as much like
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 5: I would I would recommend probably looking towards the Yankees
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 5: maybe if it was gonna be Cole pitching But you're
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 5: going to have to pay a price for the Yankees
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 5: if that's the case. The way it is right now,
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 5: the Yankees are at a pretty minimal price here. Like
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 5: a small favorite, minus 120-something here. Money is still backing Houston.
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 5: 76% of tickets on the Yankees, 80% of the cash
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 5: on Houston. I don't think I'd want Houston, even if
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 5: it is Lambert against some unknown for the Yankees. Lambert
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 5: just doesn't have good matchup numbers here, man, so... I
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 5: like the over in this one. Again, I doubt that
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 5: the Yankees are going to have any sort of good
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 5: pitcher here. Although, if it is Cole, I would lean
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 5: either Yankees, but the price is probably going to be
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 5: high on the Yankees if they do do that. If
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 5: they do do that, the other thing that you could do,
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 5: and you could do it anyways, you could play the
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 5: Yankees team total over.
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: Just take the Yankees to get... They'd have to get
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 3: six runs, probably, but.
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 5: Maybe even five, but probably six. But they could definitely
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 5: do that here in this game. But I just think
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 5: in general, the over makes sense here. I mean, the
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 5: offenses are clicking right now. I don't trust either pitching setup.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 5: If it's going to be some, like, bullpen game or
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 5: something like that for the Yankees. So, yeah, over is
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 5: probably the way that I would look to play that game.
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 5: Kansas City and Toronto. We got this one right yesterday
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 5: with Kansas City in the first five.
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 3: Kansas City... Winning some games recently, man.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 5: It was a bad spot for Toronto, though. The return
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 5: home spot. You know I talk about this. When a
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 5: team doesn't do well in the return home spot, a
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 5: lot of times they bounce back and they play better
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 5: in the next game. And this is the American League,
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 5: so technically Toronto is still in the mix for the
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 5: last wild card spot.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 3: Although I don't think they're going to do it.
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 5: And they kind of sold at the trade deadline, even
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 5: though they did pick up Soriano. But it is a
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 5: decent bounce back spot for Toronto here. And Maybe playing
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 5: Toronto is not out of the question here, even though
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 5: it looks like they're going with a bullpen game because
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 5: Kansas City is going with their pitcher who I just
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 5: don't think is anywhere near as good as he's.
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 3: Looked so far.
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 5: Kansas City used four relief pitchers yesterday. Their bullpen is
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 5: definitely not good. Toronto used five, but I would still
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 5: prefer Toronto's bullpen here.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 3: Toronto's ranked 17th. They're an okay bullpen.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 5: Kansas City is ranked dead last at 30, although the
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 5: A's are still worse, but Kansas City is right behind them. offensively,
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 5: or sorry, the Royals, I mean, what am I saying? Yeah,
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 5: I think I said the Royals. The A's are the
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 5: worst bullpen, but Kansas City's second worst. Yeah, anyway, Kansas
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 5: City's 18th offensively, tied with Philly and Arizona, like I said.
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 3: Toronto has been really bad, though.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 5: Toronto's 28th tied with Anaheim, so Kansas City actually has
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 5: the better hitting, but Kansas City's hitting has not been
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 5: good on the road, and they're going with Randy Dobnock
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 5: again here. He's got a 1.58 ERA, man, so he
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 5: looks so good, but his whip is 1.4. I mean,
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 5: come on, man. If you go into baseball savant, whatever,
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 5: his expected ERA is probably like 5 or maybe even
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 5: higher than that. There's no way that this ERA is sustainable.
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 5: Dobnok is not good. His career numbers are not good.
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 5: He's walking a ton of guys. There's no way that
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 5: he can sustain this ERA. His ERA on the road
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 5: this year is 0. I mean, I'm just laughing, man,
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 5: because it's not going to continue.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 3: I'm sorry.
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 5: But his strikeout walk ratio is 29 to 20 in
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 5: 45 and two thirds innings with 44 hits allowed.
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 3: The hit rate is mediocre.
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 5: The walk rate is clearly too high and he doesn't
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 5: strike out that many guys. He does get a lot
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 5: of ground balls. So he's David Peterson right now. Like
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 5: he's masking how bad he actually is. He's David Peterson,
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 5: but worse. His strikeout walk ratio is not good at all.
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 5: His strikeout per nine is also not good.
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 3: This guy's not good, dude. The regression is going to happen.
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 5: And maybe it'll start here, although Toronto only has two
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 5: guys who have faced him. They're one for two between
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 5: Jimenez and Straw. Straw has a double off him, and
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 5: Jimenez has a walk. And they have no strikeouts. But yeah,
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 5: even though this is a really, really weak lineup, I
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 5: don't think Dobnok is going to pitch well. Toronto's got
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 5: Spencer Miles listed as a starter. He's pitched well this year,
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 5: but this.
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 3: Is a bullpen game.
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 5: He usually goes out and he opens the game, throws
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 5: one to two innings. He's been good in that role.
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 5: And maybe Toronto will do okay, but they did use
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 5: a lot of their relief pitchers yesterday. So I don't
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 5: know if I want to trust that either, really. You
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 5: could lean to Toronto here. they're in the bounce back
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 5: spot they have more motivation here you'd be stepping in
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 5: front of this royals train where they've won like nine
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 5: games in a row or whatever um toronto 67 percent
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 5: of tickets on them 76 percent of the cash on
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 5: kansas city so the money is coming into kansas city
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 5: And maybe it's, I don't know, the professional guys just
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 5: riding this train with them, but I don't know, man.
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 3: Kansas City's still not a good team, and they're not
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 3: good on the road.
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 5: This is a decent bounce back spot for Toronto, so
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 5: I disagree with the money there.
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 3: I would lean towards Toronto slightly.
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 5: You might have to turn it into a minus one
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 5: run line, though, which I really don't like, but I
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 5: think the only other way to really play this game
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 5: is to play the over but I guess that means
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 5: you can play Toronto's team total over but you're going
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 5: to need a bad offense in Toronto to score whatever
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 5: it would be like five runs on their own I
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 5: don't know if I really want to ask them to
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 5: do that full game over though You know, I mean,
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 5: both pitching setups might kind of fail here. The money's
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 5: indicating towards the under, 83% of tickets, 92% of the
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 5: cash on the under, but I would lean over in
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 5: this game. The total's nine or eight and a half.
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 5: I guess you might be able to find an eight
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 5: and a half and get under that key number. I
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 5: would say play the over, but I mean, you can
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 5: get a number that's lower than nine there, which is
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 5: kind of what you want. So if you can find
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 5: the over eight and a half, that might be a
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 5: way to play this. It's scary because both offenses are
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 5: really bad. Well, Toronto's is really bad, and Kansas City's
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 5: is not good on the road, so it's definitely scary,
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 5: but the pitching looks iffy enough in this game that
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 5: I would prefer the over, probably over anything else in
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 5: this game, but I would also lean.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 3: Toronto, like I said.
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 5: All right, I'm going to be right back, and then
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 5: I'll talk about the rest of these games, including that
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 5: Braves game, although you already know what my opinion is
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 5: on it, but I'll give the breakdown on it.
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 3: I'll be right back.
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 5: Yep, inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 5: an 0-7 run over the last two days after tonight.
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 3: Was just complete bullshit. So that's how I'm going to
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 3: start off this show.
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 5: Horrible Sunday, 1-5, I don't even know what to tell
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 5: you about that.
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 3: I just don't want to do this anymore. I have
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 3: never seen anything like this, man. With the slump continuing.
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 5: Two straight losses, not a good day at all, 0-4,
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 5: that Have not had a good season, man. We're looking
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 5: at this slump that I'm on. The slump continues.
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 3: I've reached a new peak, actually. I'm going to burn
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 3: my Bruins hat, man. I don't know what is going
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 3: on with the Bruins. March 8th? Is that what it is?
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 3: I don't even know. It's March 9th, I think. Who
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 3: even knows, man. I don't know what day it is anymore.
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what day it is anymore, man.
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 3: Back with you after... The worst day that I could
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 3: possibly have back with you, as I always am. Until
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 3: I die, at least. 0-2 yesterday. And yesterday did not
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 3: go well for me.
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: 0-5.
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 5: The worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 5: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 5: you about this anymore.
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 3: The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 5: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 5: point other than potentially end it all. All right.
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 3: I feel a little bit lightheaded again. I don't know.
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 5: The other thing I would say about that Toronto game
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 5: is I would probably just play it action because you
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 5: pretty much know it's going to be, Dobnock probably is
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 5: going to start for Kansas City, but it I mean,
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 5: who knows?
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 3: They might put an opener in front of them.
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 5: But Toronto, you don't know for sure if Miles is
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 5: actually going to be the first guy to pitch or
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 5: not because.
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 3: They're going with a bullpen game. You know that much.
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 3: But probably it would be an action play if I
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 3: was going to play that game.
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 3: Hold on a second here. I have too many windows
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 3: open here too. All right.
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 5: Next game up is Milwaukee and the Mets. He seems
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 5: to split the series.
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 3: Oh, no, excuse me.
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 5: There was only one game in the series so far,
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 5: my mistake. The Mets won, I think, kind of in
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 5: dramatic fashion yesterday, 3-2. So it was a good pitching duel.
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 5: I was a little bit worried about Harrison. I think
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 5: it was Harrison yesterday. He had some really bad road numbers,
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 5: but he obviously pitched all right yesterday, or at least
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 5: apparently he did. But the Mets were able to come
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 5: away with the win there. These teams both have pretty
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 5: good bullpens. The Mets used four Milwaukee, uh, used four
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 5: guys out of the bullpen as well yesterday. Um, not,
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 5: it wasn't an extra inning game or was it not?
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 5: It was, uh, it was a 10 inning game. Uh,
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 5: so yeah, some extra relievers had to come into the
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 5: game yesterday. It's still, their usage hasn't been that bad.
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 5: So I would still trust the bullpens. The problem is
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 5: I don't think I trust the starters.
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 3: In this one. Um, Whoops, I'm looking ahead there.
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 5: As far as the bullpens are concerned, I got to figure,
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 5: I'm like, which tab do I want to be in?
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee is one of the best.
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 5: They're number six, but I think I ranked them like third,
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 5: and that's where their ERA is. Mets are not bad
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 5: at eighth, but they're not in that top five bullpens
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 5: that I listed, whatever.
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 3: But these are both pretty good bullpens.
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 5: Dustin May is pitching for Milwaukee. He will be the
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 5: more trustworthy of the two starters here. He's the one
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 5: actual starter in this game. No offense to Mr. Unsolved
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 5: Mysteries on the other side, but May is definitely the
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 5: better of these two pitchers, although he's not great. 4.57 ERA, 1.3 whip.
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 3: Not great. He's not good on the road.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 5: 5.59 road ERA, so that worries me. He got shelled
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 5: in his last start against Seattle, and we won on
• 1:14:29
  Speaker 5: the show with that play. I gave out Seattle first five,
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 5: and Seattle did hang on to win the full game
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 5: as well. They had a 7-2 lead, I think, at
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 5: the end of five. That was after Seattle lost that
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 5: game 22-0. I was like, we have to play Seattle
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 5: to bounce back here. Plus, Seattle had one of their
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 5: better pitchers against May, so I forget. I think it
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 5: was probably Logan Gilbert, right?
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 3: I forget who it was. Was it Wu? Maybe it
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 3: was Wu. I don't know. I don't remember, but whatever
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 3: it was, we got the win there. Anyway, May... He's
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 3: got some issues.
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 5: His strikeout walk ratio is not very good since being
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 5: acquired by Milwaukee.
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 3: So they got him in a trade with St.
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 5: Louis. He looked okay in his first two starts, but
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 5: his walks have been an issue here, and he got
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 5: blown up against Seattle. It was not a good offense.
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 5: So I don't know if I really trust May. His
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 5: hit rate is okay on the season. His walk rate's
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 5: too high. His strikeout rate is all right. So, I mean,
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 5: these numbers aren't too bad. After he kind of struggled
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 5: since he had, like, I think he had Tommy John surgery,
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 5: had some injuries, because he used to be really good
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 5: when he was on the Dodgers. But he's had some issues, man.
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 5: He's never really had a complete season in his entire career.
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 5: So he's had some issues. This year is actually the
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 5: most complete season.
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 3: That he's had.
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 5: And it's been all right for him. I mean, his
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 5: strikeout walk ratio is not that bad. His strikeout per
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 5: nine is actually okay as well. So, yeah, he's not
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 5: a horrible pitcher. But I don't trust his form right now.
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 5: His numbers against the Mets are actually good, though. In
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 5: 40 at-bats, 225 average, 569 OPS, 8-to-1 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 5: So May may actually pitch well here, and I think
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 5: he is clearly the preferable pitcher over Robert Stock, not
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 5: Robert Stack, but that's why I call him Mr.
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 3: Unsolved Mysteries.
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 5: If you have any information, about where we can get
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 5: a better starting pitcher than this guy. Stock has not
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 5: been good, man.
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 3: I mean, he has not had much of a career,
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 3: and he's 36. And he is stocky, by the way.
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 3: He's a fat guy. He's 6'1, 260. He's same dimensions
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 3: as the tugboat.
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 5: Robert Stocky, 5.4 ERA, 1.68 whip is terrible.
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 3: He's been good at home, though. 1.32 home ERA. I
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 3: don't trust him, though. I mean, he's barely pitched. He's
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 3: made four appearances.
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 5: Hasn't allowed any earned runs the last two times he's
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 5: gone out there, but he's walking a ton of guys.
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 5: 19 to 11 strikeout walk ratio. His strikeout rate is
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 5: actually impressive in 16 and two-thirds innings, but 17 hits
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 5: allowed on top of 11 walks. that's not going to
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 5: cut it. That is way too many base runners. Strikeout
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 5: walk ratio, therefore, is not good. He was actually on
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 5: the Red Sox two different times, and I don't remember
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 5: that at all, including last year. Um, made two relief appearances. Yeah,
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 5: don't remember it whatsoever. Um, His strikeout walk ratio is actually...
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 5: Excuse me, his strikeout per nine, like I said, is
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 5: actually good, though, this year. So that's interesting, at least.
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee only has one guy who's faced him. Yellich is
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 5: 0 for 1 with a walk and a strikeout against him. Still,
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 5: I think if you're going to play this game, I
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 5: think you've got to find some way to just play
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee here. They're heavily priced, though. They're at minus 150.
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee's the only team with something to play for here.
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 5: But Milwaukee's... Pretty secure in a playoff spot here, you know.
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 5: Mets might at least try to be placed spoiler here,
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 5: and the Mets did win yesterday. Milwaukee has 82% of tickets,
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 5: 77% of the cash on them, so they're a public
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 5: side with less of the money on them. So the
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 5: money is indicating towards the Mets, but I would not
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 5: want to back stock here, man.
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 3: I would not do it.
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 5: I would leave Milwaukee maybe like a minus one run line,
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 5: or the.
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 3: Other way you could do this is take Milwaukee's team
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 3: total over. The total's at eight and a half for
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 3: the full game.
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 5: So you're probably looking at Milwaukee needing to get five
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 5: runs here maybe, which that's not too bad.
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 3: They should be able to do that really. Money is
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 3: backing the over in general.
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 5: 87% of tickets on the under, 76% of the cash
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 5: on the over.
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 3: I would lean that way as well.
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 5: I would lean over as well, but May does at
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 5: least draw a good matchup for himself here. So I
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 5: think either Milwaukee minus one run line or Milwaukee team
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 5: total over might be my preference there but it's not
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 5: going to be a game that I'm going to get
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 5: involved in alright Dodgers Atlanta MLB Network Garrett so you
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 5: guys that have cable you know have like a normal
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 5: sports package you'll be able to watch this game Garrett
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 5: probably can anyway if he's in the Atlanta area Atlanta
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 5: won the game four to three yesterday. It's a big series.
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 5: I mean, both teams are going to show up for it.
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 5: I mean, you're talking about two of the top teams
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 5: in baseball here.
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 3: Atlanta, uh, has the better bullpen.
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 5: They used four guys out of the bullpen yesterday. The
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 5: Dodgers also used four. Uh, so my recommendation yesterday, I
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 5: think was Dodgers first five, which I think was a
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 5: push by the way. Um, I think Atlanta scored a
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 5: bunch of runs early, and then, like, Glasnow, I think,
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 5: had to settle down, and then the Dodgers wound up
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 5: tying it before the end of the fifth inning. Anyway,
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 5: Atlanta is number three in bullpen. I kind of ranked
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 5: them fourth, maybe fifth, but whatever. Dodgers are not quite
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 5: as good. They're not awful, but they're number 11. So
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 5: Braves have a bullpen edge. Dodgers have the offensive edge.
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 3: They're number two.
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 5: Atlanta's number 13. Dodgers have Roki Sasaki on the mound.
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 5: I actually probably prefer him over Smith-Shawver in this game.
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 3: Sasaki, he's been somewhat better more recently.
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 5: He was a guy that really couldn't get out of
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 5: his own head, and he was bad, but he's not
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 5: pitching that badly at this point.
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 3: Overall season has been okay.
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 5: 4.42 ERA, 1.3 whip, although he is not as good
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 5: on the road, although he's kind of settled down on
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 5: the road as well.
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 3: He's only slightly worse on the road at this point.
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 5: 4.53 road era he's pitching okay this month he did
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 5: have a walk heavy performance against milwaukee but if you
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 5: take that out he's actually been pretty good for most
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 5: of the last like two months so that's not too
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 5: bad his hit rates okay his walk rate is too
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 5: high his strikeout rate is okay so his main problem
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 5: is really the walks and he's a little bit too
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 5: home run heavy as well Strikeout walk ratio is not
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 5: great just because of the walk. Strikeout per nine is
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 5: higher than it was last year, though, so he is
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 5: finding his strikeout stuff. His numbers against the Braves are
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 5: not great, but it's a small sample size. 11 at-bats,
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 5: 5 hitters, 273 average, 930 OPS, 2-2 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 5: So I don't know if I want to fully trust
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 5: Sasaki here, but I trust him over Smith-Shava right now.
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 3: Smith-Shavar is still young. A.J.
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 5: Smith-Shavar for the Braves. He's one of their young, talented pitchers,
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 5: if you want to say that. But he's just walking
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 5: everybody right now, man. So I don't think we can
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 5: trust him. His numbers are awful so far this year. 6.23 ERA, 1.62 whip.
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 5: He's only made road appearances so far, though. He's only
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 5: made two appearances, but things did not go well. Eight
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 5: and two-thirds innings pitch total, nine hits allowed, six runs,
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 5: five walks.
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 3: Seven strikeouts.
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 5: So the only number there that's really even that good
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 5: is the strikeout number.
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 3: Not great here, man.
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 5: And you look at his numbers overall, like last year
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 5: was the biggest sample size we got from him. He
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 5: pitched pretty well back in 2023, and I think he
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 5: got injured. Last year he pitched a bit, and his
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 5: ERA was good last year, but his whip was not good,
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 5: and the walks were definitely an issue for him last year.
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 3: And it looks like that's continuing so far this year.
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 3: So he's really out of control, man. Not good.
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 5: And his strikeout rate hasn't really ever been that excellent.
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 5: It's just been okay. Anyway, I feel like Bill and
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 5: Ted right now talking like that. Anyway, his strikeout walk
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 5: ratio is not really good here. His strikeout per nine
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 5: is not great either, really, although it's a small sample.
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 3: Shauver against the Dodgers. They have two guys who have
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 3: faced him, Call and Rortvet.
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 5: I have no idea who that even is. They're combined
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 5: two for seven often with a triple and a double.
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 5: All the hits have come from Call, and Call has
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 5: a walk against him. Rortvet has two strikeouts. Not a
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 5: lot to see there, but this is a very, very
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 5: good lineup that Chauvin has to deal with here.
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 3: Smith, Chauvin, I should say. I don't see a.
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 5: Whole lot coming from him here, so as I said,
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 5: as Garrett pointed out earlier, Yes, I would play the
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 5: over in this game if I was going to play
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 5: anything here. The money is definitely indicating on the over.
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 5: We have 70% of the tickets on the under.
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 3: I don't know about that. A public under? Probably not.
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 5: You wouldn't see the public really playing an under in
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 5: a game like this, especially where the pitchers are not
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 5: named pitchers, but 81%.
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 3: Of tickets on the over.
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 5: The total's below that key number of nine at eight
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 5: and a half. That's pretty reasonable. You definitely have capable
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 5: offenses here. So yeah, if I was going to do anything,
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 5: I would play the over. And I do slightly lean
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 5: Dodgers first five as well. I would prefer to have
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 5: Sasaki over Smith-Shawver with the way these pitchers are pitching
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 5: right now. Sasaki has just been able to settle down
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 5: more into at least some sort of form here. So
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 5: current form is on his side. Although his matchup numbers
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 5: aren't good. So I don't really want to do that.
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 5: Minus 120 something really is the price of the Dodgers.
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 5: That does worry me a little bit. It almost looks
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 5: a little bit too easy to take the Dodgers. But
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 5: everybody also does know the Braves are also a good
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 5: team though.
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 3: So I don't know. But the Dodgers are still public.
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 3: 74% of tickets. Although 80% of the cash on them.
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 5: They might be public and getting professional money on them.
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 5: But still, I think the over is a better way
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 5: to play that game. I think both teams should be
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 5: able to hit in that one. Texas at the White Sox.
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 5: White Sox bounced back with a win yesterday, 11-7. Both
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 5: teams are trying to maintain their playoff positioning here. Both
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 5: teams are still fighting to win their own divisions. They're
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 5: both potential wild cards as well. So a lot of
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 5: motivation on both sides here. They've split the first two
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 5: games here. Both those series I just talked about are
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 5: continuing tomorrow, by the way, with Milwaukee, New York, Milwaukee
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 5: and the Mets, I should say, and L.A.
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 3: And Atlanta.
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 5: Texas, Chicago, this series is actually ending here. So it's
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 5: a three-game series. These teams, I think, are going to
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 5: be off tomorrow. The White Sox used four elite pitchers yesterday.
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 5: Texas also used four.
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 3: Kind of heavy usage there, man. White Sox have had
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 3: the better bullpen out of the two this year. They're
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 3: ranked 16th.
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 5: Texas is 19th, and it's been kind of disappointing, but
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 5: I don't know if I want to trust either bullpen
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 5: after the usage yesterday.
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 3: White Sox have the better offense. They're 10th.
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 5: Texas is 21st. Texas is a little bit better offensively
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 5: on the road, though. Mackenzie Gore is pitching for Texas.
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 5: He's been decent, but he's much better at home than
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 5: he is on the road, and he's on the road here.
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 3: 4.26 ERA overall, 1.23 whip.
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 5: Road ERA, though, 5.42, so he does have his issues
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 5: on the road.
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 3: He's in decent form right now. He's getting a lot
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 3: of strikeouts recently.
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 5: His walk rate has actually gone down a little bit,
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 5: and his team has won seven of his last eight starts.
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 3: So he's not pitching poorly right now. He's in decent form.
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 3: Even his recent road starts have actually not been that bad.
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 5: His last three were all actually pretty good, including one
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 5: at the A's stadium. So he is actually pitching pretty
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 5: well here. Low hit rate on the season. His walk
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 5: rate is his main issue, though he walks way too
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 5: many guys. His strikeout rate is high, so he has
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 5: good strikeout stuff, which has kind of always been the case.
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 5: Strikeout walk ratio is actually the highest that he's posted
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 5: in his career, so that's good for him.
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 3: So his strikeout rate's gone up a little bit for
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 3: the most part, I think.
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 5: Although, actually, his strikeout per nine is kind of similar
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 5: to what he's always done, so I guess that means
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 5: his walk rate has actually gone down, believe it or not,
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 5: even though his walk rate is still too high. His
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 5: numbers against the White Sox look bad, but only Doyle
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 5: and Greechuk have ever seen him, and most of these
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 5: numbers are Greechuk. The five for nine with a home
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 5: run and two doubles, all of that is Greechuk, and
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 5: each guy has a walk against him, and they have
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 5: no strikeouts. So Gore has struggled against those two White
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 5: Sox hitters and on the road, but the rest of
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 5: the White Sox bats are unfamiliar with him, which might
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 5: be a little bit more of an advantage towards Gore.
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 5: But I don't really want to trust Gore on the road,
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 5: although he is in better form right now, And he
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 5: does at least have some unfamiliarity here. Sean Burke is
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 5: pitching for the White Sox. He's put together a good season. 3.27 ERA, 1.11 whip.
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 5: You might have to worry about his innings count because
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 5: he's exceeded the most that he ever threw, which was
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 5: last year. He's 12 innings above that now this year,
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 5: so you might have to worry about that a little bit.
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 5: But he's still pitching pretty well here, and he's been
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 5: reasonably good at home. 3.41 home ERA is worse than
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 5: his road ERA, but his opponent batting average at home
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 5: is better. He has given up four runs each in
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 5: his last two outings, though, but he was actually not
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 5: good on the road against Detroit, but he was actually
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 5: not bad in his last start against the Mets. I
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 5: think he got a little bit unlucky in that one.
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 5: His command was there, so his command still looks pretty
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 5: good recently. His hit rate is pretty good on the season.
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 5: His walk rate is kind of mediocre. His strikeout rate
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 5: is high, so his strikeout walk ratio is pretty good,
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 5: and his strikeout per nine is pretty good. Burke has
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 5: been good overall. And he has pretty good numbers against Texas,
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 5: but it's a small sample. Six at-bats, 12 at-bats. One
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 5: extra base hit is a double from Berger. A double Berger.
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 3: Three strikeouts, one walk, 250 average. And now I'm hungry.
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 5: 641 OPS. I'm going to have lunch shortly after I
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 5: do this. But yeah, Berger has pretty good numbers here.
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 5: I think I'd lean to the White Sox here in
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 5: this one, man. Maybe even full game because they might
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 5: even have the better bullpen, although maybe because the bullpens
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 5: are both taxed. First five might make the most sense.
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 5: White Sox first five. Just focus on Gore not being
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 5: that good on the road. Burke having better matchup numbers here.
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 5: Money is indicating towards the Texas side, though. 78% of
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 5: tickets on the White Sox, 75% of the cash on Texas.
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 5: So the market read strongly on Texas, but I kind
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 5: of disagree with it. First five White Sox, you're probably
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 5: going to be looking at a higher price than the
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 5: minus 130. You might wind up having to lay a
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 5: minus half run if.
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 3: You do that. It's a little bit dicey though.
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 5: I think first five under makes some sense in this game,
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 5: and the total's not high. It's at eight or seven
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 5: and a half, so the oddsmakers think this is actually
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 5: going to be kind of a pitching duel here, but
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 5: the money's coming in on the over, and I think
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 5: part of that is because of the unrested bullpens. 73%
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 5: of tickets on the under, 77%.
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 3: Of the cash on the over.
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 5: I would leave first five under here, man, because Gore's
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 5: in good form right now, at least in his last
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 5: few road starts, haven't been bad. He's still unfamiliar to
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 5: some of the White Sox lineup. Burke has been decent
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 5: as well. So I think the pitchers, starting pitchers might
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 5: actually do okay here. I wouldn't want to do anything
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 5: with the bullpens except avoid or fade them. But first
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 5: five under, you can probably find like a four on
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 5: that at the very least. So maybe that's a way
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 5: to look at that game as well. All right, Baltimore, St.
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 2: Louis.
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 5: We got the over right in this game yesterday. And
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 5: it was all Baltimore, 13 to one.
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 3: St.
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 5: Louis might be in a bounce back spot because you
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 5: know I talk about this when a team returns home
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 5: and they have a bad performance. A lot of times
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 5: they bounce back, and they do a lot better in
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 5: the next game, and it doesn't get much worse than
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 5: a 13-1 embarrassing loss.
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 3: So maybe St.
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 5: Louis is possibly a way to look here in this game.
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 5: I don't think I'd want to deal with their bullpen, though.
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 5: They only use three guys, but their bullpen's not good.
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 5: Baltimore only use two, so Baltimore has lighter usage here.
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 5: Baltimore's the 10th-ranked bullpen here, actually, so they're actually not
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 5: a bad bullpen.
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 3: St.
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 5: Louis is 23rd, so there is a bullpen edge for
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 5: Baltimore here. Baltimore is also the better offense. They're 17th,
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 5: not great, but better than St. Louis at 25th. Baltimore
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 5: will be going with Kyle Braddish in this one. He's
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 5: been okay, 3.7 ERA, but 1.38 whip indicates his ERA
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 5: should be higher than that. He's not as good on
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 5: the road, 3.91 road ERA with a pretty high 293
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 5: opponent batting average on the road. So that's not very good.
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 5: He's been okay this month, but he's had too many walks,
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 5: and his last outing was not very good against the Yankees.
• 1:31:00
  Speaker 5: But the fielding kind of hurt him and didn't allow
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 5: him to get out of that game. So overall, I
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 5: think he's been kind of mediocre, though. And just recently,
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 5: he's also kind of mediocre. He's got an okay hit
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 5: rate here. His walk rate is definitely too high. Strikeout
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 5: rate is okay. So his problem is the walks. as
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 5: it is with so many people. And his strikeout walk
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 5: ratio has gotten way worse this year than it has
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 5: been in the past. But he hasn't had a full
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 5: season since 2023. But he was pitching a lot better
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 5: back then. Bradish has actually had a pretty good career.
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 5: So he is actually better than his numbers have been
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 5: this year. But the last couple of years, he was really,
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 5: really injury plagued. So he hasn't really had a full
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 5: season for three years at this point until this year.
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 5: So that might be affecting him in some way. His
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 5: strikeout per nine, he actually posted some pretty good numbers
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 5: throughout his career. This year, it's a little bit lower
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 5: than it usually is.
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 3: His numbers against St.
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 5: Louis, they only have three hitters who have faced him,
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 5: five at-bats, but they do have a 400 average, 1,100 OPS,
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 5: one walk and no strikeouts.
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 3: Not a whole lot to see there, though.
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 5: Bradish still might pitch well here, though, because it is
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 5: a pitcher-friendly ballpark, and St. Louis is mostly unfamiliar with him,
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 5: and they're not a very good offense.
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 3: Michael McGreevey is pitching for St. Louis today.
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 5: The advanced analytics guys don't like him, but he's posted
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 5: decent numbers throughout his career. Uh, 3.54 ERA 1.21 whip.
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 5: Isn't great, but it's not too bad. He doesn't put
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 5: that many guys on base. His ERA is better at
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 5: home 3.41, but it's Oba. The opponent batting average is
• 1:32:30
  Speaker 5: a little bit higher at six at two at two 62.
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 5: Excuse me. Um, I was thinking, Oh, I was like,
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 5: this is my, uh, my big fat Greek wedding. Now, um,
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 5: a grieving is in decent form here. Um, He's had
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 5: some mediocre outings here, but not bad. He's allowed three
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 5: or four runs at every start in August and had
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 5: a couple of bad outings at the end of July,
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 5: one really bad, one against the Cubs. But other than that,
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 5: he's strung together a couple of pretty good months here.
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 5: His hit rate's not bad. His walk rate's not too bad.
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 5: He doesn't put a lot of guys on base, but
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 5: he doesn't strike guys out, which is why advanced analytics
• 1:33:04
  Speaker 5: guys have a problem with him. His strikeout walk ratio
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 5: is still kind of okay. his strikeout per nine obviously
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 5: is low though doesn't strike guys out Baltimore basically hasn't
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 5: seen him only Alonzo has ever faced him and he's
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 5: 0 for 2 with a strikeout so yeah you know
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 5: what I mean I do lean to St. Louis in
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 5: the first five here because I want to avoid their
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 5: bullpen the money seems to very much indicate that way
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 5: 52% of tickets on Baltimore 87% of the cash on St.
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 3: Louis I think McGreevy has a little bit extra.
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 5: Unfamiliarity so the matchup looks a little bit better for
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 5: him Home road splits look to maybe favor him a
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 5: little bit here.
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 3: The money's definitely indicating on St.
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 2: Louis.
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 5: It could be a bounce back spot, like I said,
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 5: after the embarrassing game yesterday. I wouldn't include their bullpen, though,
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 5: so the price is going to go up from being
• 1:33:51
  Speaker 5: like a minus 105 price on St.
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 2: Louis.
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 5: You're probably going to be looking at like maybe upwards
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 5: of minus 120 in the first five, but I think
• 1:33:58
  Speaker 5: that's the way I would play it.
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 3: I would play this game St. Louis first five money line.
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 5: The money's also indicating on the over eight here, but
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 5: I think I see more indicators towards the first five
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 5: under in this one. I think both pitchers might actually
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 5: be okay enough so as to not allow too many
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 5: runs here.
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 3: So that's kind of the way I would look at it.
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 5: Even though I went over yesterday, it is still a
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 5: pitcher-friendly park, and there's nothing spectacular about either offense here.
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 5: All right, and then the last game on the slate here,
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 5: which is going to be kind of an isolated game.
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 5: It's the latest game on the board and the only
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 5: game being played at West Coast time here, Pacific time,
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 5: Minnesota at the A's. Gage Jump actually pitched well yesterday,
• 1:34:40
  Speaker 5: even though he was at home, and Buxton got injured
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 5: yesterday for the Twins, so that's something to keep an
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 5: eye on. He might be out of the lineup today,
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 5: which is going to affect the Twins' offense a little
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 5: bit at least because he's one of their best hitters.
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 3: The A's won yesterday.
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 5: So these teams have split the series so far. And
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 5: these teams, I think, are off tomorrow. So these teams
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 5: are not playing tomorrow. Minnesota has more motivation, though, because
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 5: Minnesota is still in the playoff race.
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 3: The A's are not.
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 5: So something to keep in mind there. Yeah, I'm kind
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 5: of surprised. Jump was really good at home yesterday. I
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 5: think Jump actually is possibly a decent pitcher. What's not
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 5: decent is the A's bullpen. They used three guys out
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 5: of the bullpen yesterday. They're not a good bullpen. Minnesota
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 5: used one. Minnesota might be the better of the two
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 5: bullpens here, but I would not want to deal with
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 5: either one. Minnesota's 28th, the A's are 29th, but I've
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 5: said many times the A's are actually the worst bullpen.
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 3: These are two of the worst three bullpens, so I
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 3: would not want to deal with any of that.
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 5: The A's are 15th offensively, Minnesota 12th, so these are
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 5: both capable offenses, and this is in the A's stadium,
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 5: which is very hitter-friendly, but.
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 5: The A's offense has kind of fallen off since the
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 5: All-Star break with all these injuries and stuff. Connor Prelip
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 5: is pitching for Minnesota. He was the guy that I
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 5: was watching last Friday night with Clint. He was pitching
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 5: for Minnesota against San Diego. And he gave a bunch
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 5: of runs, but he actually was decent with his command
• 1:36:09
  Speaker 5: in that game. Pre-lip, overall, his numbers don't look very good. But,
• 1:36:12
  Speaker 5: I mean, he's a rookie, and I think he does
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 5: have some talent. 5.57 ERA, 1.4 whip, not very good, though.
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 5: And he has definitely struggled on the road. 6.58 road ERA,
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 5: which might not be a good sign when he's pitching
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 5: in a very hitter-friendly road park here.
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 3: His strikeout rate's been good. Like I said, recently, he's
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 3: striking out a lot of guys, but he's allowing a
• 1:36:32
  Speaker 3: lot of runs, and his walk.
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 5: Rate hasn't really been that good. Although, against San Diego,
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 5: I really think he kind of got unlucky, though. They
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 5: just had some really timely hits against him and got
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 5: some runs off him, and he probably could have gotten
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 5: out of that game along fewer runs than he did.
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 3: He's got a hit rate that's very mediocre.
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 5: His walk rate actually isn't that bad, and his strikeout
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 5: rate is high, so his strikeout walk ratio is actually
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 5: going to be good here. Actually, I thought it would
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 5: be a little bit better than that. I can't do
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 5: the math anymore. Yeah, his strikeout walk ratio is actually
• 1:37:01
  Speaker 5: only okay. Strikeout per nine is pretty good, though. Prelip,
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 5: you also have to look in the stadium how fly
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 5: ball heavy is he. He isn't really that fly ball heavy.
• 1:37:12
  Speaker 5: He's kind of somewhat of an even split ground ball
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 5: fly ball, and he doesn't really allow that many home runs.
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 5: So he might actually pitch okay in the stadium, although
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 5: he's not good on the road, though. The A's have
• 1:37:23
  Speaker 5: not hit him well when they've seen him. The A's
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 5: have five hitters who have faced him.
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 3: And they're only one for 10.
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 5: The only hit is a single from McNeil. Three strikeouts,
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 5: no walks, 100 average, 200 OPS.
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 3: You can do the math. That's easy math to do.
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 5: So Prelip, actually, he looks like he might match up
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 5: okay here. I think he's better than his numbers suggest.
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 5: You do have to worry about him tiring out at
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 5: the end of the season, but I don't think he's
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 5: thrown that many innings yet, so... And he does have
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 5: decent matchup numbers here. The A's have JT Ginn pitching,
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 5: and he actually is a good style of pitcher for
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 5: the stadium as well. And he has good numbers on
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 5: the season despite pitching in this stadium. He's got a 3.6 ERA, 1.23 whip,
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 5: not too bad. And he's not bad at home. His
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 5: numbers are actually similar home and away. He's a little
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 5: bit better on the road. His ERA is actually slightly
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 5: worse on the road, but his opponent batting average is
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 5: definitely worse at home.
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 3: So he is more hittable at home. But he's still
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 3: pitching pretty well overall.
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 5: Actually, his worst start of the season, I think, came
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 5: on the road here against the White Sox.
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 3: Yeah, whatever. He's pitching pretty well recently, though. He's doing
• 1:38:29
  Speaker 3: all right. Going at least five innings in most of
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 3: his recent starts. Not allowing too many runs here. Not
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 3: walking too many guys.
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 5: He's a little bit too hittable recently, but his hit
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 5: rate overall this season isn't that bad. In fact, it's
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 5: his walk rate that's really actually the problem this year.
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 5: His strikeout rate's not that high, so the advanced analytics
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 5: guys won't like him because he's got a low strikeout
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 5: walk ratio. It's actually lower than it was the last
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 5: couple of years. His walk rate's definitely too high. His
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 5: strikeout rate is mediocre here, but he doesn't allow a
• 1:39:00
  Speaker 5: lot of fly balls. He's a somewhat heavy ground ball pitcher. Well,
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 5: kind of even, basically more ground balls than most guys induce.
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 5: He's not a really home run heavy guy, so... Both
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 5: pitchers actually have decent styles to pitch okay in this game.
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 5: I hate the bullpens, but I actually think I lean
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 5: first five under in this one. I really don't want
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 5: to do it, but I think both pitchers might actually
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 5: be okay.
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 3: In this one. We have 88% of tickets and cash
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 3: on the under.
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 5: There's no way the public is playing it under in
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 5: this game, even though the total is kind of high.
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 5: It's 10, but it's always high at the A stadium.
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 5: You know, this is a Pretty average total for a
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 5: game at the A Stadium here at 10.
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 3: And or 10.5.
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 5: First five under, though, I think you'd probably be able
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 5: to find like a 5.5 or maybe a 5, whatever,
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 5: on the first five under. I think that's the way
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 5: I would lean in this one. Money's also backing Minnesota.
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 5: 58% of tickets, 68% of the cash on them at
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 5: about minus 130.
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 3: I don't know about that, man. Actually, did I forget
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 3: Ginn's matchup numbers here? Hold on, let me see. Ginn's
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 3: matchup numbers are only mediocre here.
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 5: 21 at-bats against Minnesota, 286 average, 729 OPS. The OPS
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 5: isn't bad. They've hit him for contact, but not for power.
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 5: 5-2 strikeout walk ratio.
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 3: So yeah, you know what?
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 5: I probably do lean Minnesota a little bit here. Prelip,
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 5: I think, is better than his numbers look. Might have
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 5: more talent than Ginn, just like a higher ceiling. Minnesota's
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 5: the more motivated team. But you'd have to do a
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 5: first five. I know how bad the A's bullpen is.
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 5: I don't want to back Minnesota's bullpen either. So I
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 5: think Minnesota first five. You might have to lay like
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 5: half a run with that if you do it that way.
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 3: Maybe not, though.
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 5: Maybe there will be a money line that's like reasonable
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 5: on that. But, yeah, 58% of tickets, 68% of the
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 5: cash on Minnesota. And Minnesota, like I said, they're the
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 5: only team that's actually fighting for playoffs and whatever here.
• 1:40:53
  Speaker 5: So the motivation is kind of on their side.
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 4: All right.
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 5: Let's go to WNBA, and then I'll get out of here.
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 5: I will have a WNBA play here on this first game,
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 5: and it is going to be ugly, man. And there's
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 5: one aspect of it that I don't like, but I
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 5: think it's a good enough play to do it anyway.
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 5: With three plays now, we're definitely going to get over
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 5: 200 wins since I started tracking here, you know. let's
• 1:41:23
  Speaker 5: get this done, man. We're going to take Connecticut plus 13.5.
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 5: I think this line is ridiculous. It looks like the
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 5: line has gone up from, like it opened at like 9.5
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 5: and went up to 13.5, so probably that means Griner
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 5: is still not playing for Connecticut, but does that even
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 5: really matter that much? I mean, I know Griner is
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 5: one of the better players on Connecticut, but Connecticut's just
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 5: a bad team, man. I think it's going to just
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 5: kind of be next woman up mentality, whatever. I really
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 5: don't think it downgrades their team that much with whatever
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 5: they're doing. Plus, you're getting a better number on them,
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 5: at least. And if anything, maybe the number's overreacting to
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 5: whatever's going on here. But the only negative for Connecticut,
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 5: other than that they're the worst team, and that's being
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 5: factored into the line, I think the rest is also
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 5: being factored into the line. And that's the one negative,
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 5: is Connecticut played yesterday against Chicago. But they are staying
• 1:42:13
  Speaker 5: at home here. And usually I don't want to play...
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 5: on a team that is on a back-to-back, but at
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 5: least they had a.
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 3: Few days off prior to that. They had a couple
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 3: of days off.
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 5: I know they were returning home yesterday, but a lot
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 5: of times the team does better in the next game
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 5: after they return home. They did win against Chicago, so
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 5: that'll give them a little bit of confidence. And Edwards,
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 5: I guess, had a career high. scoring effort in that game,
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 5: whoever she is. And she had a double-double as well.
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 5: So she had a good game for Connecticut yesterday. Part
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 5: of the reason might be because Griner was out, but whatever.
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 5: I mean, Griner is usually factoring into the rebounds at least.
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 5: But you can see Griner doesn't really factor onto the
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 5: stats that much. So Connecticut still is going to have
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 5: a lot of their better players playing here. So I
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 5: still don't really understand exactly why the line moved as
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 5: much as it did. Well, actually, Nelson Ododa has been
• 1:43:02
  Speaker 5: out as well.
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 3: So you do have to see Yeah, so she was
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 3: out yesterday.
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 5: We have to see if she's going to come back
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 5: because she's been one of their better players as well.
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 5: So maybe that's part of the reason why the number
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 5: has gone up here, but I just don't even care.
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 5: I just think it's a bad spot, man, for Golden State,
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 5: which I'm going to show in a minute. And the
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 5: total is so low in this game that You're getting
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 5: a lot of value playing a huge dog like this here.
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 3: So, yes, Connecticut, I know how ugly this is, but
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 3: we don't need them to win.
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 5: I would sprinkle maybe 3% of the bet on the
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 5: money line maybe because sometimes these games are wild in
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 5: the WNBA, and these big underdogs that I play sometimes
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 5: do actually hit outright, as we saw with Golden State
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 5: the last time, and that kind of gives you an
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 5: indicator of why I'm fading Golden State here.
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 3: But, yeah, I'm not going to expect Connecticut to win.
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 5: I'm just expecting an ugly, low-scoring game, and it should
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 5: be a get-in, get-out effort for Golden State here, and
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 5: that's why I like this. Golden State does have one
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 5: extra day of rest here, but even so, they're coming
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 5: off beating Minnesota, man, and they pounded Minnesota, and we won.
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 5: If you remember my handicap on it, Minnesota was returning
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 5: home from a road trip. They'd just beaten Golden State
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 5: by double digits on the road trip. They were 3-0
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 5: against Golden State on the season. Golden State's a good
• 1:44:20
  Speaker 5: defensive team, so.
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 5: I gave out that as a play. Golden State looked
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 5: really good. They won the game. But now they're coming
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 5: off that massive win, dude. Monster win. Upset win against
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 5: the best team in the league. Now they're going to
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 5: go from Minnesota to Connecticut. And they have to play
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 5: New York tomorrow. And that's why they're really out here
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 5: in the New York area. They're playing these two games back-to-back.
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 3: Which game do you think they're going to put their
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 3: effort into? You know what I mean? Out of these two? Yeah,
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 3: I think it's going to be New York. I think
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 3: Golden State might.
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 5: They might actually even not play some of their starters
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 5: for the full time here. And that's the other thing.
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 5: We could definitely backdoor this thing with Connecticut. Say Golden
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 5: State has a big lead towards the end of the
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 5: game here. They might just pull their starters because they
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 5: know they have to get ready for New York tomorrow.
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 3: And that's a big game. And it's on Amazon Prime.
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 5: So.
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 3: If they do that, Connecticut.
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 5: Definitely has a chance to make a late run and
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 5: make this cosmetic or whatever and cover that way too.
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 5: So the back door is open in this game, man.
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 5: And it's a sandwich spot for Golden State. between Minnesota
• 1:45:23
  Speaker 5: and New York. Those are much, much bigger games. They're
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 5: not going to pay attention to Connecticut. The last time
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 5: they played Connecticut, they played here in July, and they
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 5: beat Connecticut easily by 15 points. So why would they
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 5: pay attention to them? They played them earlier in the
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 5: season back in Golden State and beat them by 27.
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 5: I mean, they're not going to pay much attention to
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 5: this game, I wouldn't think. So I think it's a get-in,
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 5: get-out effort here. Golden State's more of a defensive team.
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 5: You might be able to find a 14 on this now.
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 3: Maybe you.
• 1:45:52
  Speaker 5: I would just look around. You might get a little
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 5: bit of a better number on this. I'll post whatever
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 5: I find, if I find a better number on it.
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 5: The money's coming in on Golden.
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 3: State, but I obviously disagree with that.
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 5: 71% of tickets, 85% of the cash on them, but
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 5: I think they're going to be a public side. And
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 5: a defensive team like Golden State, even though their offense
• 1:46:10
  Speaker 5: is okay... You don't want to lay points like this
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 5: with a team like this on the road, especially not
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 5: in a good spot, and the total is crazy low.
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 5: The money has actually driven this thing down from 156.5
• 1:46:22
  Speaker 5: down to 151.5, although some of that might be because
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 5: some of the starters aren't playing, but this is a
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 5: low total, dude, and you know what I always say.
• 1:46:28
  Speaker 5: This is the lowest total I've seen on the WNBA
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 5: board all season, and that combined with getting a double-digit underdog,
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 5: I say let's do it, even though I know this
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 5: is one of the bigger mismatches you'll see.
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 3: It's like the third best team in the league against
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 3: the worst team. I get all that.
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 5: But you know I like playing underdogs in the low
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 5: total because the low total means there's more value. I
• 1:46:50
  Speaker 5: do this in football. Football, it's even better because football
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 5: is a lower scoring sport. But in basketball, it works
• 1:46:56
  Speaker 5: as well, especially in the WNBA, which is lower scoring
• 1:46:59
  Speaker 5: than the NBA.
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I like it, man. It means each point is
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 3: worth more because the total is so low. It's more
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 3: likely the underdog will hang around here. Let's do it.
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 5: Connecticut plus the 13 and a half or maybe plus
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 5: 14 if you can find it. And then the last game,
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 5: the number on this game looks really, really strange. Toronto
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 5: at Seattle on USA Network. These are not good teams, obviously,
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 5: but looking at this number, Seattle.
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 3: Has one of the worst records. I think they have
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 3: the worst record in the entire league and they're laying
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 3: six and a half points here.
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 5: So you got to question like what the hell is
• 1:47:34
  Speaker 5: going on here? Like that's the first thing I noticed.
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 5: This looks like a very misleading number here. So that
• 1:47:39
  Speaker 5: has me looking towards maybe playing Seattle here, right? Because
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 5: why would Seattle be a six and a half point
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 5: favorite when they have the worst record in the league?
• 1:47:47
  Speaker 5: The public is only going to play Toronto here. Like,
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 5: Oh my God, like I'm getting points playing against the
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 5: worst team in the league, playing with a team, playing
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 5: on a team with a better record.
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 3: I would slow it down a little bit though.
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 5: One of the main reasons for this is because Toronto
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 5: has a bunch of players that aren't playing here. Um,
• 1:48:04
  Speaker 5: It looks like they have some injuries going on here.
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 5: A couple of players might just be rested in this game.
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 5: So that's what's going on. Toronto does have some players
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 5: that are not playing in this game. So that's one
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 5: thing that's going on. That's part of the reason why
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 5: the line is shot up like this. So I don't
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 5: want to do it because it might be an overreaction
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 5: I'm going to lead Seattle in this game just because
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 5: the line looks so misleading, and nobody's going to want it,
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 5: but I don't think I want to lay that price
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 5: with it. We're going to be a three-and-a-half point favorite,
• 1:48:31
  Speaker 5: and I think Toronto's just resting some players, and you'll
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 5: see what their schedule looks like in a minute. So
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 5: even though they do have injuries as well, but I
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 5: think they're resting some players as well. So I think
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 5: the line is an overreaction a little bit. The three-and-a-half
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 5: would have been a lot better, and if it only
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 5: went up to four-and-a-half, Maybe it would be better, but
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 5: the 6.5 is a bit of an overreaction. So I
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 5: still don't want to do it, but I do not
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 5: want Toronto here. Toronto has a bad road record as well. Seattle,
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 5: believe it or not, their home record is at least
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 5: better than Toronto's road record. Seattle just got killed by Dallas.
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 5: They are returning home, but it was only a single-game
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 5: road trip. I fade teams returning home from road trips usually,
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 5: but that was only a single-game road trip, so I'm
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 5: not as concerned by that. Seattle, I believe, did play
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 5: Toronto early in the season. And they lost both times. Yeah,
• 1:49:19
  Speaker 5: so Seattle lost at Toronto by 13 and at home
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 5: by 20.
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 3: Or no, at Toronto both times. Excuse me, at Toronto
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 3: by 21.
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 5: That means Toronto has not even played in this arena before.
• 1:49:30
  Speaker 5: So I think that's an extra disadvantage to Toronto here
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 5: because they won't be familiar with this arena.
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 3: They won't know the sight lines. So that should help
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 3: Seattle be.
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 5: adjusted already right like Seattle already knows how to shoot
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 5: in this arena even though I know their arenas are
• 1:49:44
  Speaker 5: pretty uniform in this league but still there might be
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 5: some weird stuff in the background and whatever who knows
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 5: so Toronto has to get accustomed to the sight lines
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 5: here and Toronto's also in a Vegas sandwich they just
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 5: played Vegas and they lost by 10 And they're playing
• 1:50:00
  Speaker 5: Vegas again in two days. So this is a bad
• 1:50:03
  Speaker 5: spot for Toronto for that reason.
• 1:50:05
  Speaker 3: Also, they have to travel to the West Coast for
• 1:50:07
  Speaker 3: a 10 p.m.
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 6: Game.
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 5: And you know I talk about that when a team
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 5: is more easterly. And Toronto's travel has been bizarre, dude.
• 1:50:15
  Speaker 3: On the 18th, they were home against Indiana. The 19th, back-to-back,
• 1:50:18
  Speaker 3: they had to go to Washington. Then on the 21st,
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 3: they had to go play in Vancouver for some reason
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 3: against Portland.
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 5: Then they came home from that and now they have
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 5: to go back out to the West coast to play Seattle.
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 5: This is such a ridiculous travel spot. I think that's
• 1:50:32
  Speaker 5: also factoring into the line. You know, I think the
• 1:50:34
  Speaker 5: travel spot is definitely factoring into the line too. So
• 1:50:38
  Speaker 5: I do like Seattle in this game. Like everything kind
• 1:50:41
  Speaker 5: of lines up for Seattle as far as the spot
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 5: is concerned.
• 1:50:44
  Speaker 3: But the problem is it, I just don't think the
• 1:50:47
  Speaker 3: number's good. You know what I mean?
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 5: I don't want to lay six and a half. Um,
• 1:50:52
  Speaker 5: But I think Seattle should win this game. Toronto, yeah,
• 1:50:56
  Speaker 5: they might be looking to head to Vegas next, like
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 5: I said, and Toronto might just overlook Seattle. They're going
• 1:51:01
  Speaker 5: to have to get adjusted to the Pacific time zone,
• 1:51:04
  Speaker 5: like I said. So all this travel is crazy back
• 1:51:06
  Speaker 5: and forth, but readjusting to the time zone again. In
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 5: the last five days, they're having to travel three time
• 1:51:13
  Speaker 5: zones both ways, like one way each, so twice. Completely ridiculous.
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 5: Ridiculous scheduling. The WNBA is stupid, dude.
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 3: Usually, the WNBA will have the scheduling such that you'll
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 3: play a bunch of teams in the same area. Sometimes,
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 3: play the same team.
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 5: Twice when you see them and you're in their area,
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 5: but that's not what they're doing with Toronto here. I
• 1:51:34
  Speaker 5: don't know what the deal is, but yeah, it's a
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 5: bad spot, dude. Bad travel spot. Sandwich spot's bad. They
• 1:51:39
  Speaker 5: have to re-acclimate themselves to the Pacific time zone, and
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 5: that's bad. Like I said, your biological clock has to
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 5: somehow re-acclimate to this later time zone.
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 3: Not good. Plus, they have to get adjusted to... Oh, no,
• 1:51:53
  Speaker 3: this is at Seattle. Yeah, at Seattle, yeah.
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 5: So Toronto, they're a new team, so they're not really
• 1:51:56
  Speaker 5: familiar with playing in Seattle yet. For some reason, I
• 1:52:00
  Speaker 5: was thinking the way the expansion teams work, like a
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 5: new arena.
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 3: So it's not a new arena.
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 5: So Toronto's players have probably played in this arena before,
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 5: but Toronto as a team has not played in this
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 5: arena before, so that's what I'll say.
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 3: All right, I think I'm done with all that. Look
• 1:52:17
  Speaker 3: at the market.
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 5: The money is kind of similar to the Golden State
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 5: one where it looks like you have public and pros
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 5: all on the road team, all in Toronto, but I
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 5: don't agree with it. 86% of tickets, 95% of the
• 1:52:29
  Speaker 5: cash on them. Total is kind of a mid-range total
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 5: in this one. Money kind of coming towards the under
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 5: a little bit. But yeah, Seattle's 6.5. I would not
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 5: want to lay 6.5, but I do lean to Seattle
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 5: in this game. The 4.5... I'd be tempted to actually
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 5: do it. If you want to do something with it
• 1:52:47
  Speaker 5: and you really want to have some stupid action on
• 1:52:49
  Speaker 5: these WNBA games. Oh, by the way, I forgot to
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 5: mention the Green Dildos are back. We've had two Green
• 1:52:54
  Speaker 5: Dildos in the past three or four days. It happened
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 5: last night in that Phoenix game, which I was wrong about,
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 5: so luckily I didn't add that to my card.
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 3: But there was a green dildo that came out in
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 3: that game.
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 5: So you might be able to bet on dildos again, man.
• 1:53:07
  Speaker 5: I haven't looked at it again, but you remember I
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 5: did like a special segment on my show last year
• 1:53:12
  Speaker 5: talking about the dildo betting because you could bet on
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 5: the color of the dildo, whether one would be thrown
• 1:53:17
  Speaker 5: at all. You could bet whether or not it would
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 5: hit a player first or be touched by a ref first.
• 1:53:23
  Speaker 3: Crazy, crazy shit. It's hilarious, man.
• 1:53:26
  Speaker 5: It's one of the better things to happen to the
• 1:53:28
  Speaker 5: WNBA because it's such a bad league, bad basketball, whatever.
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 5: It's become such a joke, man. I mean, why not
• 1:53:34
  Speaker 5: make it more of a joke? Dildo tossing and have
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 5: men enter the league. Even though the WNBA finally decided, no,
• 1:53:42
  Speaker 5: that's not allowed. But you have to ask them, well, why?
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 3: What do you mean?
• 1:53:47
  Speaker 5: How are you defining a woman? You're actually saying that
• 1:53:49
  Speaker 5: a woman means somebody that has.
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 5: Female sex chromosomes? Is that actually what you're saying? So
• 1:53:56
  Speaker 5: that's why you're saying Enos Cantor? They phrase it as
• 1:53:59
  Speaker 5: NBA stars are not allowed to play. I'm like, well,
• 1:54:02
  Speaker 5: Enos Cantor wasn't a star, so he's allowed to play.
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 5: They refuse to phrase it as biological men are not
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 5: allowed to play in this sport, even though that's clearly...
• 1:54:11
  Speaker 5: That was the whole founding.
• 1:54:13
  Speaker 3: Of this sport. That was the whole reason for it.
• 1:54:15
  Speaker 3: The WNBA was for women. That's what it is. What
• 1:54:19
  Speaker 3: is a woman? We all know what a woman is.
• 1:54:21
  Speaker 3: It's so ridiculous, dude. Oh, my God. But whatever. I'm
• 1:54:26
  Speaker 3: going off on tangents here.
• 1:54:28
  Speaker 5: I think if you want action in this game, besides
• 1:54:30
  Speaker 5: maybe finding some dildo bets, if those are available somewhere...
• 1:54:34
  Speaker 5: You can money line parlay this thing. I think Seattle
• 1:54:36
  Speaker 5: is going to win. So you could take Seattle's money line,
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 5: which is probably minus 200 something or whatever, and.
• 1:54:43
  Speaker 3: Find a similar money line and parlay the two. But,
• 1:54:46
  Speaker 3: I mean, what can you do with that, though, really?
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 5: The only money line, you could do it with NFL tomorrow.
• 1:54:52
  Speaker 5: Although I haven't looked at the NFL board yet tomorrow.
• 1:54:54
  Speaker 5: But if you have a favorite you might like in
• 1:54:56
  Speaker 5: the NFL tomorrow, you can Moneyline Parlay one of those
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 5: with Seattle. Maybe that would be my recommendation. Or find
• 1:55:02
  Speaker 5: a heavy baseball favorite today that you like.
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 3: And maybe do that. I don't know. You can go
• 1:55:08
  Speaker 3: back and see what my analysis was. I don't even know.
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 3: Did I have a favorite? Maybe Milwaukee, I guess.
• 1:55:14
  Speaker 5: Although their price isn't that heavy. But I think they
• 1:55:16
  Speaker 5: were kind of the bigger favorite that I kind of
• 1:55:19
  Speaker 5: liked a bit today. I mean, I guess you could
• 1:55:22
  Speaker 5: Moneyline Parlay Seattle and WNBA and Milwaukee in baseball.
• 1:55:27
  Speaker 3: Probably, you know, I don't know. I would say maybe it's.
• 1:55:29
  Speaker 5: Better to find a preseason NFL game and Parlay Moneyline
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 5: Parlay that, like a favorite that's in the minus 200 range.
• 1:55:37
  Speaker 5: Parlay that with the Seattle side. Anyway, that's going to
• 1:55:41
  Speaker 5: do it. My plays today are the under in Philly,
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 5: Seattle in baseball. I really like this one. Everything sets
• 1:55:47
  Speaker 5: up for that one. It better come through. And then
• 1:55:49
  Speaker 5: I added on the fly Miami.
• 1:55:51
  Speaker 3: In the first five.
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 5: More of a spot play, really, to fade the Red Sox.
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 5: But the matchup numbers seem to support it as well.
• 1:55:58
  Speaker 3: And then we have this ugly, huge underdog with the
• 1:56:02
  Speaker 3: con women, Connecticut. Even though they're a.
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 5: Decimated roster, I still don't care. Horrible spot for Golden State.
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 5: Take Connecticut, bless the points, in the WNBA.
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 3: Let's work our way back to being a winning WNBA season.
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 5: We might not get it, man. We don't have too
• 1:56:21
  Speaker 5: many games left, but I'm going to try. And we
• 1:56:24
  Speaker 5: got one right the other day. Arcade, what's up, man?
• 1:56:30
  Speaker 3: On what? What are we talking about? My lean on what?
• 1:56:35
  Speaker 3: On the dildos?
• 1:56:37
  Speaker 6: Um.
• 1:56:38
  Speaker 3: Oh, it's 11-11.
• 1:56:38
  Speaker 5: Everybody can make a wish. A Cantor WNBA jersey. What
• 1:56:45
  Speaker 5: you can do is you can find one of those
• 1:56:47
  Speaker 5: sites that makes those jerseys. You can just get a
• 1:56:50
  Speaker 5: custom WNBA jersey and make it the Chicago Sky because
• 1:56:55
  Speaker 5: that was the team that was getting angry at him
• 1:56:57
  Speaker 5: and kicked him out of the building. So get a
• 1:56:59
  Speaker 5: Chicago Sky Cantor jersey.
• 1:57:03
  Speaker 3: Oh, I don't know.
• 1:57:04
  Speaker 5: I mean, they all seem to be green, but if
• 1:57:07
  Speaker 5: there's a color problem and green is going to be
• 1:57:09
  Speaker 5: a heavy favor, but every single one is green. I
• 1:57:13
  Speaker 5: think it's the question is it's the yes or no
• 1:57:16
  Speaker 5: is probably the better look here.
• 1:57:18
  Speaker 3: Like that's the.
• 1:57:21
  Speaker 5: I would say it's not going to happen tonight because
• 1:57:23
  Speaker 5: it seems to happen in specific arenas, and Phoenix is
• 1:57:27
  Speaker 5: one of them. So I would say maybe tomorrow, bet
• 1:57:30
  Speaker 5: that it will happen again in Phoenix, in the Washington-Phoenix game.
• 1:57:33
  Speaker 5: We'll see if I'm right about that. But Phoenix seems
• 1:57:35
  Speaker 5: to be kind of a dildo hotbed. I think they
• 1:57:38
  Speaker 5: had at least one of them, probably multiple of them
• 1:57:41
  Speaker 5: last year, and they had the most recent ones.
• 1:57:42
  Speaker 3: So I don't know. We'll see. Might be the same
• 1:57:47
  Speaker 3: person doing it.
• 1:57:49
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean.
• 1:57:51
  Speaker 5: I would not bet serious money on it, obviously. I
• 1:57:54
  Speaker 5: would only bet entertainment money on it, like, you know,
• 1:57:58
  Speaker 5: lunch money, dinner money, whatever, fast food money, goy slop money.
• 1:58:02
  Speaker 3: Am I allowed to say that on here? Maybe not.
• 1:58:04
  Speaker 3: I don't want to get this channel nuked, so I
• 1:58:07
  Speaker 3: don't know. That's going to do it. Learn a total. Twitter.
• 1:58:10
  Speaker 5: Learn to Tote on Instagram. Like, subscribe to this channel.
• 1:58:13
  Speaker 5: You'll get notifications when I go live. If you missed
• 1:58:16
  Speaker 5: my college football preview, you can still go check that out.
• 1:58:18
  Speaker 5: That starts on Saturday with week zero, so I will
• 1:58:22
  Speaker 5: probably be back to doing the nighttime college football series,
• 1:58:27
  Speaker 5: probably starting with Friday night.
• 1:58:31
  Speaker 3: So we'll see. And what else do we have going on?
• 1:58:35
  Speaker 5: Yeah, there'll be an NFL preview at some point, and
• 1:58:37
  Speaker 5: I might do two more, like one solo one and
• 1:58:40
  Speaker 5: one with Clint as a bald episode.
• 1:58:43
  Speaker 3: So be on the lookout for that.
• 1:58:46
  Speaker 5: And then he may join me for a Major League
• 1:58:49
  Speaker 5: Baseball playoff prediction one like he did last year as well.
• 1:58:52
  Speaker 3: So we'll see.
• 1:58:53
  Speaker 5: What else do I have to promote here? Covered in
• 1:58:56
  Speaker 5: Uke is my Uke channel on YouTube. Patreon.com slash LearnToTote
• 1:59:00
  Speaker 5: if you want to support me that way. Losercast had
• 1:59:02
  Speaker 5: a new episode last night.
• 1:59:04
  Speaker 3: It was fun.
• 1:59:04
  Speaker 5: You can go check that out. And the New York
• 1:59:07
  Speaker 5: Giants G-Spot podcast. I keep mentioning it because it's technically
• 1:59:12
  Speaker 5: a thing, but we'll see what happens.
• 1:59:14
  Speaker 3: That's going to do it. I appreciate it, everybody. Happy Wednesday.
• 1:59:18
  Speaker 3: Let's have another winning day here, man, and peace.
• 1:59:23
  Speaker 4: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone Let
• 1:59:28
  Speaker 4: somebody answer, let somebody know You do not have.
• 1:59:34
  Speaker 2: To lose this round alone.
• 1:59:40
  Speaker 6: Hold on, hold on, not tonight Not now Hold on, hold.
• 1:59:53
  Speaker 3: On Let me pull.
• 1:59:55
  Speaker 2: You out That bad luck fights hard But it don't.
• 2:00:04
  Speaker 4: Get the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me
• 2:00:10
  Speaker 4: now
• 2:00:14
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on You're still here now guitar solo