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Episode 425 - 1/5/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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  54321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
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  Hello and welcome to Episode. 425.
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  Of the all. Systems Go sports betting
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  podcast powered by Rhythm. I'm your host, Josh Applebaum.
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  What's going on, everyone? Happy Monday, a new week begins.
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  But more importantly, welcome to the.
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  NFL playoffs. That's right.
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  Week 18 of the NFL. Regular season is.
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  Over and done with, and it is officially.
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  Time for some postseason. Sweats and I got to tell you
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  guys, I love betting football year round.
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  Heck, we were getting down on. You know, preseason games.
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  But there's. Nothing better to me than NFL
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  postseason betting because. There's a ton on the line.
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  I also think it's an advantage. To us, as contrarian betters,
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  because there's fewer games for the public to choose, we also
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  have some. Great systems that we can rely
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  on. So I'm going to talk to you guys
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  about. Some NFL playoff systems intent.
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  Dogs tend to do well, knock on wood.
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  Hope that. Continues, but I'm going.
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  To give you. The best dog systems.
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  In particular, not only. The playoffs overall, but in
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  terms of the wild card weekend and by the.
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  Way unders do pretty good as well.
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  So we're going to. Talk about the postseason I'm
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  also going to give you. 3 early bets for me and I was thinking
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  to myself OK I got great dog system matches what?
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  Dog should I hit right? Now because I.
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  Think we're getting the best of the number?
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  So let's try to really focus on getting hooks.
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  Key numbers that we think hopefully will.
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  Fall. And pouncing on them, right?
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  Now early bird getting the worm. Hopefully will be a benefit to
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  us so I do have. 3 early plays I want to hit on.
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  We'll talk about the NFL postseason systems take
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  advantage of. Also, there is an incredible
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  stretch of football Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday,
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  Monday, because Thursday and Friday we have the College
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  Football Playoff Final four-game each.
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  Night. And then we got.
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  Saturday, Sunday and Monday NFL post season, so just an epic
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  five day stretch ahead. But I made two bets already on
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  the final four. So I got to play for you guys.
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  When it comes to. Miami and Ole Miss.
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  And Oregon. And Indiana.
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  Now if you follow me on the all. Systems go.
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  Best bet picks from the. Juicer lap you might have.
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  Seen these plays that I. Put in over the weekend, but
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  we're going to update those, give you some Final Four bets
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  and then we need some sweats for tonight.
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  So I'm looking at some college basketball games.
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  I got 3 plays including. One which happens to be my.
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  Favorite system match? Almost of all time.
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  It's about as good as it gets here and we'll talk about that.
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  Here in a second do want to mention.
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  Because the post season is now officially.
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  Upon us I have another Survivor contest for you guys to join, so
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  shout out to our. Guy Manny Davis, and he won the.
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  Inaugural Applebaum NFL survivor for the season.
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  Long sweats. I noticed that circa.
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  Paid out their Survivor winners. Like splitting 20?
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  4 million or something? Like that, but I mentioned to
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  you guys earlier and you could have signed up.
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  We already got about 35 signups, which is great.
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  But I invite you to. Join my NFL.
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  Survivor contest with Splash Sports cost 25.
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  Bucks you could win up. Up to around. $5000 get up to 7
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  entries. But what's interesting about
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  this? Survivor 1 is it's shorter.
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  Obviously, it's the postseason. But you got to be strategic
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  because. You got to save your Super Bowl
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  champ. For the final week.
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  So if you want to go to my. Twitter page at Josh under
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  score. Insights the pinned.
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  Tweet at the very top. Get right in there.
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  Come on down. Join the Survivor contest.
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  Make some, hopefully make some money in the postseason and I
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  want one of the. Winners to be a ASG pod
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  listener. With that being said.
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  Also got to recap what we've been up to here guys.
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  No, don't. Don't tell anybody.
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  Keep it on the DL, we're on a little bit of a heater here.
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  Back on Friday 3 and O. Plus 2.5 units.
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  Remember we had. Wake Forest Plus. 3 1/2 one.
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  Outright. We had SMU money line they got
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  up to 8th I think it was a 24 nothing lead and almost blew it
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  there late. But end up.
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  Winning on the money line that we had.
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  Nebraska in college basketball Remember that was a.
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  Always money line short. Favorite play because.
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  They're playing Michigan State public Michigan State line went
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  to. Nebraska, but they closed -2
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  1/2. They won by two, so that's why
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  we money line. Short favorites.
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  So nice little 3 and O Friday then if you read the sharp
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  reports for visa.com or again. Followed the ESG best.
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  Bets on juice Rail, A2 and O. Saturday plus one point. 58
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  units we had. Carolina walking right.
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  Through the back door plus. Three scored a huge touchdown
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  late to lose by two. Also the Seattle money line,
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  remember. That was a public all.
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  Over San Fran. But that line kept going up to
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  Seattle like -1 up to was it minus?
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  2 1/2 and then a three and O Sunday.
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  Plus 2.59 units. The G men.
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  Plus 3 1/2. Came through for the team.
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  The Saints plus three and a. Half they were a backdoor cover.
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  They scored a touchdown late and then also the Pittsburgh.
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  Steelers, I got a little nervous because they're.
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  Like 3 1/2. Or four.
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  I was able to get a four. I know my buddy Darush.
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  He did the same we. Both had Ballybet plus. 4 at
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  like -112. And it crept up to 4 1/2 so.
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  There was some late money. They're going with the Ravens.
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  And what an absolutely. Incredible sweat, by the way.
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  Also pouring out to anyone who had the under there because the
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  under was looking pretty. Great the entire game and then
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  they scored a million points in the fourth quarter.
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  But a couple missed field goals, missed kicks, but we pretty
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  much. Stayed with the.
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  Tomlin as a dog, primetime dog as well as a divisional dog.
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  And wouldn't you know it, Aaron Rodgers lives to to fight
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  another day. So nice little run we got going
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  here guys. Let's see if we can.
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  Keep it rolling for today. So I want to start off with some
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  NFL talk, then we'll talk college hoops.
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  And we'll also mention. These College ball playoff
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  games. So let's talk real quick.
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  About the NFL postseason. Because I was doing some.
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  Tweets here earlier and. It's really my favorite time of
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  year. So let's kind of talk about why.
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  In terms of what? We do.
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  As data-driven betters. Why this time of year?
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  Typically, you know. Has done pretty well
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  historically. I mentioned it before, but one
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  there's fewer. Games, so it's not like an NFL.
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  Sunday with 12. Games where the public.
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  Spread all over the place? No, they're one off.
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  Games. There's no other games on the
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  board, so if you can go against the public you get more
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  contrarian value and then number.
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  Two, we get these great system matches, so let me just.
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  Tell you and then update you and again if you want to.
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  Dig deeper. All of these.
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  Systems are on my. Twitter page.
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  At Josh under score insights but.
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  In general, dogs have done well in the postseason.
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  Why? Because.
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  There's a lot of public betting and a lot of public betters who
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  may not have. Been grinding every.
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  Week with us throughout the. Regular season, but they're.
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  Going to come in. Playoff time and you know.
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  Bet their favorite. Team.
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  But here's the thing more. Public betting means more bias.
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  Toward favorites. So just taking a contrarian.
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  Approach. Not talking bet splits, I'm
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  talking just public class favorites.
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  So let's go the. Other way and take dogs now.
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  Since 2017, taking all dogs in the postseason has gone. 60 and
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  38 against the spread 61. Percent, 19% ROI.
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  So again, that's that's pretty. Darn good layer in a few more
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  here. Dog who missed the playoffs.
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  The previous year, public says. You're a dog I don't want to
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  play up and if you missed the. Postseason.
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  Last year, you're not very. Good.
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  You know the. Lights are too bright.
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  You're you're going to lose. You're not going to.
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  Cover, but no we. Want to buy low on these teams?
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  Dogs who missed. The playoffs the previous year
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  have gone. 41 and 21. Against the spread since 20.
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  1760. 6 percent, 28%. ROI dogs with a line move in
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  their favor. You know you go from plus.
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  Three down to plus 2 1/2. That kind of thing. 20 and 10
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  ATS 60. 7 percent, 30% ROI. Short dogs getting 3 or less.
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  Public says oh I like the favorite.
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  It's a short number. Take the favorite.
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  No, go the other way. 26 and 10 against.
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  The spread 72 percent, 41% ROI. So dogs.
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  Dogs who missed the playoffs, the.
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  Previous year. Dogs with a line move short dogs
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  3 or less, Those have all been. Really good historically, now
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  it's isolate just. The wild card round So this
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  really is. Important for this weekend.
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  Wild card dogs since. 201727 and 15 against the spread. 64
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  percent, 25% ROI. If you are a wild card dog who
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  missed the playoffs, the. Previous year. 21 and 9.
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  Against the Spread 70. Percent, 36% ROI.
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  Now this one is crazy because it looks so good it.
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  Must be fake but. It's not, I double checked it if
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  you're a wild card dog. And you're playing an opponent.
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  Who missed? The playoffs the previous year.
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  16 and one. Against the spread. 94%. 84% ROI
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  since 2017. And oh by the way, I had to
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  throw a bone to the total betters out there.
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  Taking the under in the wild card round. 25 and 1760.
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  Percent. 15% ROI, so whether it's.
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  The playoffs in general or the wild card round?
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  Dogs. Dogs missed the playoffs.
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  Dogs playing an opponent. Who missed the playoffs?
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  Dogs with a line move short. Dogs 3 or less.
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  Wild card unders all. Been very good historically.
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  So with that in mind, I'm saying to myself, OK, what should we
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  hit right now because we're matching a lot of these systems.
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  And we're thinking this might. Be the best of the number.
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  And I will give you 3 early bets that I made.
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  So first bet that I made is Carolina Panthers taking the
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  Panthers. Plus 10 1/2.
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  Panthers obviously had the backdoor.
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  Their way into the playoffs. It's funny when you lose a must
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  win game and then. You make the playoffs anyway.
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  But I like the Panthers. Plus 10 1/2.
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  Now the key here to me. Is you're getting the hook
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  because you're sitting right around. 1010, 1/2.
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  But what I noticed is that it. Opened at -10.
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  It got up to 10 1/2, but now all those 10 and a halfs are
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  starting to come back down. So you're basically looking at
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  mostly, you know, 10 and a halfs getting down to 10.
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  So I'm. Saying to myself, let's grab
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  this hook before it falls because, again, it's pretty
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  widely available. But all these books are, you
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  know, Carolina. Plus 10 -, 115. -120.
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  Now I found Carolina. Plus 10 1/2 at minus. 112 at
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  FanDuel. I like that because one.
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  You lose by 10. Hopefully we cash with the.
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  Hook also it's the lowest juice price, but then we look at some
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  system matches here, so wild card dogs.
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  Since 20/17/60. 4% against the spread dogs in general since.
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  201761 percent. ATS, but this match is one of
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  our favorite systems. A wild card dog who missed the
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  playoffs, The. Previous year, remember.
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  Those teams are 21 and 9. Against the spread 70% Thirty 6%
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  ROI. Little cherry on top popped open
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  rhythm. I have two rhythm system
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  matches. One says kind of crazy.
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  Carolina should. Only be plus 3 point. 6 but I
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  have a green star recommended play Carolina plus. 6.6.
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  So even if you take the 6.6, even if you rounded up to seven,
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  we're getting. 10 1/2. And we're playing it now
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  because, again, we don't want to wait.
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  Have it get down to 10 or God forbid. 9 1/2 they.
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  Lose by 10. We need to.
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  Catch that bet with the hook. So.
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  Getting the best of it. Juice looking like it's falling.
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  Back down, good system matches and good rhythm edge first bet
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  for me. This is a Saturday game at 4:30.
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  Carolina Plus. 10 1/2. Next bet that I made San
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  Francisco Philadelphia. This is your sandwich.
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  Game late. Afternoon Sunday, your 4:30 PM
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  game. Now I must.
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  Admit this line went up to Philadelphia.
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  Because the Eagles. Went from minus. 3 1/2.
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  Up to -4 or. -4 1/2. So must admit.
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  Probably some respected money did hit eagles as soon as this
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  thing. Opened but I got.
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  Matches on San Fran. And I'm thinking the. 4 1/2.
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  Might be the best number. And I don't know.
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  If it's going to come back. So I said, you know what?
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  I popped open Draft Kings. I found a + 4 1/2 at -120.
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  And I played it. Again, I wouldn't call this a
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  sharp bet. Yes, the line went to Philly.
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  To me it's a value bet of getting the best number getting.
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  A hook, remember. Touchdown 7A Field goals three
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  That's a. 4 1/2. Extrapolate that that.
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  Could be really important so I'm seeing most every.
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  Book Let's see, Caesar's The Score Fanatics Bally Bet all
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  plus. Four Bet, MGM and FanDuel are
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  down to. 3 1/2. We can get a DraftKings.
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  Plus 4 1/2. At -120.
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  I played it you. Know that's that's almost.
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  That's basically a full. Point better than.
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  FanDuel and bet MGM. If we look at.
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  San Fran as well. They're matching a few systems.
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  Wild card dog playoff dog Wild card dog missed the playoffs
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  the. Previous year.
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  Again, that is a 70. Percent system, so I played.
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  San Fran at Plus. 4 1/2 again. To me, that's not a sharp play,
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  it's a value. Play, it's a system play and if
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  you can get the. Hook 4 1/2.
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  I'm thinking that. Could be the best price.
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  Hopefully last early bet. That I made.
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  Going right back. To Aaron Rodgers in Pittsburgh.
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  This is a Monday night game, 8:00 Houston at Pittsburgh, and
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  nobody, and I mean nobody. Wants to play Pittsburgh right
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  now, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Are getting only around. 34.
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  Percent of spread bets, however. They pretty much.
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  Open, you know, Houston minus. 3 1/2 - 3.
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  But. All these.
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  Three and a halfs. Are juiced toward Pittsburgh
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  and. It looks to be getting back.
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  Down to 3. So on the one hand we are
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  contrarying in a prime time game.
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  So prime time dog system. Match and.
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  We can still get the hook right now if you.
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  Look at these current prices. Again, I'll.
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  Always give you the Massachusetts.
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  Numbers. That's where I'm at.
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  But DraftKings and Caesars? Are back down to three.
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  Bet MGM, we have +3 and F -, 1. 18 FanDuel same thing the.
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  Score. In Fanatics are plus 3 1/2 -
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  120. Valley bet is +3.
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  And 1/2. -117. So I jumped on this little bit
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  earlier it. Was at I think Caesars.
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  Plus 3 1/2 at -114. But again, why is that
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  important? Because if Houston wins by.
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  Three, we got to cover with the hook here.
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  We do have Pittsburgh, as I mentioned, playoff dog, wild
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  card dog, primetime dog, also a dog.
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  With a very low total, this is the lowest total, 39 1/2.
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  So I'm thinking, hey, we should grab Carolina. 10 1/2.
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  Before it gets down to. 10 We should pounce on San Fran, 4
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  1/2. Before it gets down to four 3
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  1/2. We should pounce on Pittsburgh
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  Plus 3 1/2. Before it gets down to.
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  Three. And Oh, by the way.
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  Came through last night, Tomlin. As a dog system match.
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  So those are my early bets. I must say as well.
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  Jacksonville Plus 1 1/2. I'm considering them chargers.
• 14:25
  Plus 3 1/2. I'm considering them as well but
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  I'm I'm going to wait. Because that'll be a wild card
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  dog, so that. System I gave you member is 16
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  and one. 94. Percent since 2017.
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  Wild card dog. Versus an opponent.
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  Who missed the? Playoffs the previous year.
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  That would match with the Chargers because.
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  Patriots didn't make the playoffs.
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  Last year. The reason why?
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  I'm not playing the. 3 1/2 right now.
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  Is because Patriots are getting a lot of support right now.
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  Only 30% of bets on the Chargers.
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  Remember, they rested their guys in the.
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  Final week of the regular season.
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  But a lot of. Books are juice -3 1/2 -, 115 to
• 15:00
  the Pats, so I'm going to wait on this one.
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  I'm going to hold out. For a Chargers plus. 4 but that
• 15:05
  is definitely on my radar. And then I'll be.
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  Honest with you guys Green Bay, Chicago, I.
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  Don't know what to do there. It's basically a.
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  Pick em game. Right down the middle I.
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  Must say the under looks kind of intriguing.
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  Looks like a cloudy, windy under 15 miles per.
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  Hour. That'll be a wild.
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  Card under Let's see outdoor. Playoff under wild card under
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  45. Or more is 60.
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  Percent so with a pick. Em game.
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  No clear dog or favorite. I'm thinking.
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  Is that a total? Play you.
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  Know under 4646 1/2 it did. It did fall at some shops.
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  But those are my thoughts. Early, but again, Steelers,
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  Panthers 40. Niners.
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  Those are in pocket. Take committed playing them
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  again. Monitoring Jacksonville and.
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  Chargers and then Green Bay. Chicago again looks.
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  Like a pick em game, some books for -1.
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  Chicago Some. Books for -1 Green.
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  Bay really not much. Clarity there either way.
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  So maybe that's an under play, but those.
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  Are just some early bats. If you'd like to join me, you're
• 16:05
  welcome to. If you'd like to fade.
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  You can do that too, whatever you want to do, but that's what
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  I'm looking at and I'm already playing as of now now.
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  Wanted to go to college. Football because we have.
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  Before you know it, couple days from now, on Thursday, the final
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  four. So I wanted to mention the.
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  First one here, Miami and Ole Miss.
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  I jumped on Ole Miss. Plus 3 1/2.
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  Now my thought process here is 1.
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  Get in the hook. You know we open this.
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  Game Miami -3 Miami got up to. 3 1/2 But now those three and a
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  halfs a. Lot.
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  Of them are getting back. Down to 3 so.
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  Anytime it gets up to. Three, you see.
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  Smart money hit Ole Miss. And drop it back down.
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  That tells me that the. Smart.
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  Money play here is with the hook with Ole Miss.
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  Ole Miss would also match. As a dog.
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  Who can score play? You saw obviously what Trinidad.
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  Chambliss did in that. That last game against Georgia I
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  jumped on +3. And half at -1. 12A.
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  Little bit earlier it. Was like, maybe it was like.
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  Thursday Friday of last. Week end of last week.
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  A lot of books are down to. Three, but you are.
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  Getting some +3. And halfs -115.
• 17:11
  At Fanatics and Valley. Bet that's not bad.
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  But the score is plus. Three and half -1. 30 vandals
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  plus three and half -122. So the other.
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  Thing for me is like SEC against ACCI know Miami.
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  Has been great for us. You know.
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  Cash in the 1st 2 tickets had them.
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  Against A&M, had them against Ohio State.
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  But I'm looking toward a. A dog who can.
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  Score trying to get the best of the number.
• 17:35
  With that 3 1/2 so I did play. Ole Miss.
• 17:38
  Plus 3 1/2. And then this one, it is so
• 17:41
  sharp. And I can't wait to play it.
• 17:44
  Let's go. Ducks The ducks fly together.
• 17:46
  Oregon. Ducks, Indiana, everybody and
• 17:49
  their mother is on Indiana right now.
• 17:52
  I'm looking at Indiana. 80% of spread bets Friday.
• 17:56
  Night. So literally, Not literally.
• 17:58
  It'd be 100. Percent, but almost.
• 17:59
  Everyone super super. Lopsided is on Indiana, so even
• 18:04
  if you just don't even look at the line movement #1 contrarian.
• 18:07
  Play of the playoffs is Oregon and the points but guys
• 18:10
  hopefully you. You sign up to get those all
• 18:13
  systems go best bets from Juice. Rail, but I'm pretty.
• 18:15
  Excited about this? One because I put in, let's see,
• 18:19
  Oregon. Plus 4 1/2.
• 18:22
  And I got them plus. 4 1/2. At -112.
• 18:27
  Over the weekend or a little. Bit earlier, have you seen?
• 18:30
  Where the line is now guys, it's down to. 3 1/2.
• 18:32
  Again I. Don't really even see any.
• 18:34
  Fours left I guess Bally bet is your is your last +4.
• 18:39
  But everyone's down to 3 1/2. Pretty much across the board.
• 18:43
  So we're looking at a line. Freeze even.
• 18:45
  Maybe the most epic. RLM play ever because a lot of
• 18:47
  books. Open Indiana like minus. 4 Now
• 18:51
  you're down to 3 1/2. Even though they're getting 80.
• 18:52
  Percent of bets. Rhythm, by the way, has Oregon.
• 18:56
  Plus one or. -1 1/2. So I love this Oregon play.
• 19:01
  Again, if you're like me and you pounced on the. 4 1/2.
• 19:03
  Like hopefully. This situation will be similar.
• 19:05
  To fingers crossed like the. 49ers against the Eagles, where
• 19:09
  again we're pouncing on that 49ers.
• 19:11
  Plus 4 1/2 today. They close at 3 1/2 by the.
• 19:14
  Weekend. That'd be great.
• 19:16
  Same thing here. Oregon if you.
• 19:17
  Jumped on the. 4 1/2. Or 4 getting down to. 3 1/2.
• 19:21
  So again, if you. Can get it.
• 19:22
  Get the four. I'd still play it.
• 19:25
  But man this looks really sharp toward Oregon.
• 19:26
  I wouldn't even hate a 3 1/2 here.
• 19:28
  I think it's just crucial that you get the hook on A on a
• 19:30
  three-point game. But I did play Oregon that
• 19:34
  hopefully will be A. Incredible sweat for us.
• 19:37
  Ducks fly together. Now let's talk some games for
• 19:41
  tonight. That's fun.
• 19:42
  Talking about these. Early games getting excited.
• 19:44
  For them. We got some sweats available to
• 19:46
  us for tonight. So let's see if we can.
• 19:48
  Cash some tickets. So first one on the board, it's
• 19:52
  a little bit of an obscure and you know, overlook game a little
• 19:55
  bit. But Columbia and Cornell 5:00
• 19:58
  game early match up here if you. Want to play it Columbia?
• 20:01
  Comes in 11 and three. They've won two straight.
• 20:04
  Just beat up on Division 3 Penn State Abington one O 6 to 51 and
• 20:08
  there wasn't even a spread for that game.
• 20:10
  Same thing. Cornell, 7:00 and 6:00.
• 20:13
  But they've won two. Of their last three, just.
• 20:14
  Beat up on Division 3 Alfred. State. 133 to 65.
• 20:18
  Again, no spread there. Now, what have we seen across
• 20:21
  the market Will. Cornell opened around a 1 1/2
• 20:23
  point home favorite. And that kind of is.
• 20:25
  Interesting to me because. Columbia is 11 and three really
• 20:29
  good record. Cornell's only seven and six,
• 20:31
  even with homecourt. Should Cornell be favored?
• 20:34
  Well, we've seen Cornell actually tick up. -1 1/2.
• 20:36
  Up. To -2 1/2 and I'm seeing some
• 20:40
  shops even get. Juiced up and creep up.
• 20:42
  Possibly toward Cornell -3 So we're seeing some.
• 20:46
  Movement in favor of Cornell. It's a little bit of a.
• 20:49
  Low bed, obscure, sharp. Line move.
• 20:50
  Where public doesn't care. Too much about this one.
• 20:52
  But we're seeing smart money if you look at the.
• 20:55
  Splits at DK 59%, bets 86. Percent dollars on Cornell.
• 21:01
  I went money line on Cornell, so let's win the game.
• 21:04
  Don't have to worry about something happening like with
• 21:06
  that Nebraska. Michigan State game where we
• 21:08
  money line in. Nebraska, they won.
• 21:10
  But didn't cover the number so I got Cornell.
• 21:13
  At -1. 34 earlier today. How they're not to around -1. 40
• 21:19
  I've even seen a. -150 so that's a good sign.
• 21:22
  Not great if you haven't bet it. Yet but a good sign the line
• 21:24
  keeps going to Cornell I'm. Going to bank on Cornell's
• 21:27
  offense, they're averaging. 94 points per game, only 81 for
• 21:30
  Columbia. Big Red, as the Cornell's known,
• 21:34
  they. Have the better offensive.
• 21:35
  Efficiency 62nd. In the country.
• 21:37
  Versus 100? And 52nd for Columbia.
• 21:40
  They have the better effective. Field goal percentage 9th.
• 21:42
  Versus 50? 2nd but a three.
• 21:44
  Point shooting 6th. Versus 18th, they take better.
• 21:48
  Care of the ball. 156th. In turnovers versus 320?
• 21:51
  2nd. Oh, by the way, Cornell. 4.
• 21:54
  And O at home this year. So again, it's a overlook.
• 21:57
  Game, you know I don't. Think you woke up saying I got
• 21:59
  it at Columbia Cornell. But looks like.
• 22:01
  Cornell is sharp to me, so I'm going to take a shot here on the
• 22:04
  Big Red. Again I got a. -134.
• 22:06
  Money line. Now you're looking at a money
• 22:08
  line around. -140. Next one for you before you get
• 22:12
  to my favorite play of the night, Alabama State and
• 22:14
  Arkansas. Pine Bluff, another very low.
• 22:17
  Back game This is a. True, added obscure sharp line
• 22:20
  move because we open this game. Let me set the stage here.
• 22:23
  First we have. Alabama State 4 and 10 on the
• 22:27
  year. Just snap the.
• 22:28
  Seven game skid with an 89 to 60.
• 22:30
  Nine win over Mississippi Valley State covered the 13 and a.
• 22:33
  Half on the road. As as a favorite.
• 22:36
  On the other hand, Arkansas Pine Bluff, also 4.
• 22:38
  And 10. They've won three straight,
• 22:39
  though. Just beat.
• 22:40
  Alabama A&M 95 to 80. 31 out right?
• 22:43
  As a 1 1/2 point home dog so. Just sitting across the market
• 22:47
  here will this game. Open Alabama.
• 22:48
  State as high as a. -2 1/2. Road favorite.
• 22:52
  And we've seen nothing but movement toward.
• 22:54
  Arkansas. Pine Bluff.
• 22:56
  So Alabama. State open -2 1/2 and we've now
• 22:58
  flipped. To Arkansas Pine Bluff. -1 1/2.
• 23:03
  Now some shops got as high as -2.
• 23:06
  I am seeing it come back down a little bit.
• 23:07
  I'm seeing some books down to like.
• 23:09
  One or maybe even a. Pick em.
• 23:11
  But we do have this line going toward Pine Bluff.
• 23:13
  Which is notable. To me in an added.
• 23:15
  Obscure sharp line move where again?
• 23:17
  36 digit rotation number, you know.
• 23:20
  Public doesn't care about it. But we have.
• 23:21
  Seen this line gravitate toward. Pine Bluff.
• 23:24
  If we look at circa. Over 90%.
• 23:27
  Of spread bets in dollars. On Pine Bluff and also.
• 23:31
  I'm look toward a money line play here now I got. -120.
• 23:35
  I am seeing right now you can get Pine Bluff -115.
• 23:39
  So again, if you haven't played it, you're getting a better
• 23:41
  number here. I will say though.
• 23:44
  One advantage hopefully is Home Rd. because Pine Bluff, they're
• 23:48
  playing their. Fourth straight home game.
• 23:50
  Alabama State is playing their. Eighth straight Rd. game.
• 23:55
  Pine Bluff is. Three and O at home.
• 23:56
  Alabama State is. 2:00 and 9:00 on the.
• 23:58
  Road Both teams are 4 and 10, so they're both bad, but Pine Bluff
• 24:02
  is. Three and old home.
• 24:03
  They're in a good home. Stretch and the eighth straight.
• 24:06
  Road game for Alabama State some kind of a tough spot, so 2 gross
• 24:09
  teams. I need to go Arkansas.
• 24:11
  Pine Bluff. Money line game.
• 24:12
  Three O 662-1306. 622. Around -120 But again, you can
• 24:18
  get around -115 now. Now the granddaddy of them.
• 24:22
  All my favorite game tonight. Nebraska and Ohio State.
• 24:25
  Most heavily back game. And happens to be one of my
• 24:28
  favorite system matches of all time.
• 24:31
  Nebraska, 6:30 PM tonight. Comes in 14 and O undefeated.
• 24:35
  Ranked 13th, came through for us huge.
• 24:37
  On the money line. Over on Friday.
• 24:41
  Just beat Michigan State 5856. But again, didn't cover the 2
• 24:44
  1/2 as a favorite. You know Ohio State. 10 and 3.
• 24:48
  They've won two in a. Row and just beat Rutgers. 80 to
• 24:51
  73. But didn't cover as an. 8 1/2
• 24:53
  point Rd. A road favorite.
• 24:55
  So let me see across the market here.
• 24:56
  Well, this game opened. Ohio State listed as a one.
• 25:00
  And a half point home. Favorite right off the bat.
• 25:03
  Isn't that? Fishy Why is Nebraska who's?
• 25:05
  14 and O and ranked 13th. Why are they a dog?
• 25:08
  Tonight. So again.
• 25:10
  Especially against the team that.
• 25:11
  Is not as good record. And is is unranked, however, the
• 25:17
  public is saying. The wrong team is favored.
• 25:21
  But we've actually seen this line move.
• 25:22
  Further toward Ohio State, so Ohio State has.
• 25:24
  Gone from. What was it -1 and a?
• 25:27
  1 1/2 now. Up to minus. 2 1/2 Now I'm
• 25:30
  seeing some 2 1/2. 'S juiced up maybe?
• 25:32
  Even get to 3. So this is right up our alley as
• 25:35
  an. Unranked home favorite verse
• 25:37
  ranked. Opponent public Nebraska.
• 25:39
  But line going to Ohio State. Only only 34.
• 25:44
  Percent of bets are on. Ohio State, but yet the lines.
• 25:46
  Moving in their favor. So it's a fade the trendy.
• 25:47
  Dog Ohio State I should. Say, is your #1 contrarian play
• 25:51
  only? Getting a third of tickets.
• 25:53
  In the most heavily back game of the night, so even if you don't
• 25:55
  have the line. Moving toward the Buckeyes,
• 25:56
  you're. Just in a great fade the public
• 25:58
  spot here to. Fade trendy dog.
• 26:00
  Nebraska and take the Buckeyes. Now I went money line.
• 26:04
  On Ohio State here, so I got Ohio State.
• 26:06
  On the money line at. -140. Earlier today, I'm now seeing.
• 26:11
  Most books like -155 -. 160 now. So again, great sign the line
• 26:16
  keeps going. Toward Ohio State?
• 26:17
  Not great if you didn't bet it yet.
• 26:19
  But this might. Make you a little.
• 26:20
  Bit happier? Ohio State. 33%.
• 26:22
  Of money line bets. 68% of money line dollars at DK.
• 26:27
  Short favorites 4 or less. With at least 1/2 point of line
• 26:30
  movement. In their favor, they're winning
• 26:31
  62% of the time this year, with a 5% ROI in Ohio State.
• 26:36
  Better Offensive Efficiency 20. Third versus 46th better
• 26:39
  effective field goal percentage. 17th versus 56th.
• 26:42
  Better offensive rebound percentage. 130th versus 270.
• 26:46
  6th. And better free throw shooting
• 26:48
  9th versus one O 6th. So if you give me the most
• 26:52
  heavily back game of the night and.
• 26:53
  Everybody's playing the trendy. Dog but.
• 26:56
  The lines going to the contrarian.
• 26:57
  Favorite. I love that spot.
• 26:59
  Especially on ranked first ranked.
• 27:01
  So I did play Ohio. State money line -140 and again.
• 27:05
  Looks like your best. Price now is around. -150. -155.
• 27:10
  But let's go. Buckeyes, so Cornell, Pine Bluff
• 27:14
  and Ohio. State all money lines, see if we
• 27:16
  can get. Two out of three go 2 and 1 eek
• 27:19
  out a winning day. So that about does it for
• 27:22
  episode 420. 5. Man.
• 27:24
  That was a that. Was a fun pod today.
• 27:26
  We talked about a lot, but this is the part of the pod where we
• 27:28
  wrap things up and I always start first by saying.
• 27:31
  Thank you. Thank you for listening, thank
• 27:33
  you for tuning in, thank you for grinding with me every single
• 27:35
  day in the arena. Through the hot stretches, the
• 27:37
  cold stretches, When we're grinding, when we can't miss,
• 27:40
  we're so. Hot or when we can't.
• 27:42
  Hit the broadside of a barn when we're cold, that's.
• 27:44
  Betting there's ups and downs. You just got to weather the.
• 27:46
  Storm and stick with it, but if you do enjoy the pod, please
• 27:49
  could you give it a five star review on Spotify or iTunes
• 27:53
  just. Click Rate and Review.
• 27:54
  If you want to leave a nice comment.
• 27:55
  That's even better, but. Five stars would really help us
• 27:58
  to continue to grow and rise up the charts.
• 28:01
  If you'd like to retweet. The pod when I put.
• 28:02
  It out that'll be awesome if. You want to recommend the pod to
• 28:05
  a friend? That would also be great next if
• 28:08
  you enjoy. The style of betting.
• 28:09
  And maybe you've cashed a few? Tickets over the last week or so
• 28:13
  and you got a couple extra bones in your pocket.
• 28:15
  Support the team. Go to Amazon.com and buy one of
• 28:18
  my books. Just type in the NFL.
• 28:20
  Sharp Betting Playbook or the everything guide to sports
• 28:22
  betting. Pick one or both of them up for
• 28:24
  you or. A friend and.
• 28:26
  You know what you should do? You should.
• 28:27
  Bring to the sports book. I'll sign up for you.
• 28:29
  I'll buy a beer. Or ginger ale.
• 28:30
  Sweat some games together. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
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  and Juice Reel yet? Well, if you haven't.
• 28:36
  Now is the time. Rhythm and Juice Reel 2 great
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  sports betting apps Rhythm for their AI backed models.
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  And predictions for game bets. And player props juice.
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  Reel so many great advantages one if.
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  You want to tip your podcast host?
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  I'd love for you guys to sign up to.
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  Get the ASG pod best bets directly from Juice Rail.
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  It cost you? $4.99.
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  Cents a week. For a week's.
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  Worth of plays. I consider it a tip jar.
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  If you like the pod. It's free, you know, get.
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  Those. Plays that would make me and
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  Juice Reel and Ricky. Gold my buddy.
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  Happy. We also get the sharp mush
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  indicators. The arbitrage plays the shop for
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  the best line features as well as the robo.
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  Jackson best bets all when you download.
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  Juice Reel So download rhythm download juice reel give them a
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  5. Star Review in the App Store.
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  Next, I told you it. Should be your New Year's
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  resolution to download and take advantage of.
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  Odds Logic Odds Logic is the best live odds page around Odds
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  Logic. Gives you all the games.
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  Start times. Live scoring.
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  Live in game wagering odds. But allows you to track the
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  market. So again, sports betting.
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  It's fluid, it's constantly moving.
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  You got to know. What the line opened at?
• 29:39
  Where is it now? Got to be able to shop for the
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  best price, you got to find that. 49ers plus 4 1/2.
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  When every other. Book is 4 or. 3 1/2 so.
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  If you'd like to give Odds Logic a shot.
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  To me it's the best live odds page around.
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  All you got to do. Is go to oddslogic.com/josh. 123
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  Make sure you do the slash Josh one 2-3 at the end.
• 30:02
  Next to last we have. Novick.
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  Have you downloaded Novick? Yet it's a sports.
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  Betting exchange you're. Going to get.
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  Way better juice prices. Than you would.
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  At a sports book. Because instead of going
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  against. The greedy house.
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  Who's making you pay -115 -? 120 You only have to pay -110
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  minus. One O 5 + 1.
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  O2 so you can win at the. Same rate but turn a bigger
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  profit. And that sounds pretty good to
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  Contest it's. Pinned to my Twitter page at
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  Josh under score. Insights I'm going to mention.
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  It every day because it. You know you can.
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  You can join. It now and start.
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  Making your plays and your picks.
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  But once that first playoff game hits at 4:30 on Saturday.
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  It closes, so get in now. You know.
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  Give that link to your friends or.
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  Family and I'd love for somebody to make 5 grand because that
• 31:02
  would be a nice start to the year.
• 31:04
  So that about does it for episode 425 of the ASG pod.
• 31:08
  As always, two final thoughts. One, whether I see you at the
• 31:10
  Borgata. And Atlantic.
• 31:11
  City Twin River in. Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
• 31:13
  Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan. Sun down in Connecticut.
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  The Encore in Boston plain Ridge park casino MGM Springfield the
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  Nash. And my neck of the woods on the
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  border. Of Massachusetts and New
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  Hampshire. We're out in the desert where
• 31:25
  the true. Grinders get down where Billy
• 31:26
  Walters sends his number runners where the lowest true as
• 31:29
  possible is found at the South Point.
• 31:31
  Or. Sweat and sharp can train.
• 31:32
  Plays jumping. In the stadium swim pool.
• 31:34
  When you cash a big ticket at Circle, you're going.
• 31:36
  To walk up to me, you're going to show me.
• 31:38
  An SMU ticket from Friday. A wake.
• 31:41
  Forest Plus 3 1/2 a Nebraska. Money Line A Carolina Panthers.
• 31:45
  Plus 3A Seattle Seahawks. Money line a Giants plus. 3 1/2.
• 31:50
  A Saints Plus 3 1/2. A Pittsburgh Steelers +4.
• 31:54
  Guess what first one. 'S on me, next one's on you.
• 31:56
  We'll post about the book. Sweat sharp contrarian plays all
• 31:58
  night long. So for coming off a.
• 32:01
  You know. What is it?
• 32:02
  368 and O or an O and eight? A four and four.
• 32:06
  You know 2 and. 6A6 and two. 7. And one, one and seven, three
• 32:10
  and five. Five and three all whatever.
• 32:11
  Combinations. They can be.
• 32:13
  Whole point. Being when we're hot.
• 32:14
  We can't get too cocky and we can't think it's easy because
• 32:17
  it's not. When we're cold, we can't give
• 32:19
  up and think it's terrible and unwinnable.
• 32:21
  Because it's not. We're always.
• 32:22
  Somewhere in the middle. So if we.
• 32:24
  Can ride that wave, not get too high or too low?
• 32:26
  Stay discipline. With our bankroll management.
• 32:29
  And play the system matches. Which means finding games that
• 32:31
  fit our model against the. Public with the house with the
• 32:34
  pros, flat bet and avoid. Parlays if we can do that and
• 32:37
  also get that. CLV, we're going to be.
• 32:39
  Successful sports bettors. So have a fantastic.
• 32:42
  Monday night, everybody again. It's.
• 32:44
  One of my favorite times of the year.
• 32:46
  The lead? Up to the NFL postseason.
• 32:48
  Super Bowl is not far off. We'll see if we can start
• 32:51
  tonight with some some winners in the hard court for for
• 32:54
  college. Hoops, but as always guys.
• 32:55
  Thank you for tuning in and I will.
• 32:57
  See you tomorrow for episode. 4/20.
• 32:59
  Six of the all systems go sports betting podcast powered by
• 33:03
  Rhythm. Good luck everybody, and let's
• 33:05
  go. Buckeyes.