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The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast - NFL Draft Betting w/ Matthew Freedman · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: Louisiana called the Tennessee Redline one eight eight nine or
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  Speaker 1: visit one eight gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: to the Favorites That podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: I and Chad Moment, chief content Officer of the Action Network.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: We're going to do one of my favorite shows of
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: the non NFL season today because over the past few years,
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: nothing has become more exciting or more interesting two veteran
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: betters and net new betters as the NFL Draft market,
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: truly like for years it was an event that a
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: lot of veteran betters were looking at because it was
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: the offshore illegal books that we're taking all the bets
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: right and now specially our sponsor FanDuel are offering so
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: many markets on betting the NFL Draft, and look it is.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: It is the ultimate crapshoot. It is the ultimate whisper,
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: ultimate whisper game. It is as much fun as anything
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: out there. If you are looking to get a little
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: bit of a sweat on an event that is really
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: just reading a list, right, but it's the most exciting
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: list that's going to be read between now in the
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: start of the NFL season and this year this year.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: It's happening in Vegas, and for like the first time
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: in two years, Action Network is going out into the universe.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: We're having an event we for anyone in Vegas. Anyone
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: in Vegas. Next week, we are hosting a pre NFL
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Draft happy hour at Circus Stadium Swim in downtown Las Vegas.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: It's Wednesday, April twenty seven. We've got a open bar,
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: We've got surprise guests, We've got betting tips from some
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: of your favorite Action pros. Gotta be twenty one and over.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: It's totally free. It does require an r s v P.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: If you're in Vegas next week, check out the link
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: in this episode description to r s v P. I
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: gotta say the last time we did an event in Vegas,
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: it was March Madness and we had like five people there.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, my co host, my bff, my companion, Mikempadre,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: you and I were gonna talk about the NFL Draft.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: We're gonna bring in my nemesis, Matthew Freedman, director of
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: content for Fantasy Pros and Betting Pros, former Action Network
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: colleague who we still love dearly, at least some some
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: people do so Simon. At this time last year, we
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: were talking about the draft, and you famously, famously before
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: we bring Freedman in, who was a draft expert, Freeman
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: a couple of years to go when he was that
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Action Network sent this Jerry McGuire type memo about why
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: we should cover the draft and turned himself into a
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: draft expert. But last year, you famously had late breaking
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: news before the markets knew that the forty niners who
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: had been saying all along the reports have been all along,
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: they were gonna take mac Jones number three. You bet
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: huge six figures against mac Jones being drafted number three.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: And then about forty hours before the draft, you came
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: on the podcast and you said mac Jones will not
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: be number three, and for the next forty hours that
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: was the conversation right up until free Lance was drafted.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Tell us about that process. Remind people of what that
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: process is like so we can get some sense of
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: the drama and the tension that goes into the draft
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: betting prospects. Um. Yeah, definitely a unique situation. That was
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: where I had my own draft. Everyone makes your own draftboard,
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: especial anyone betting this stuff. You have your own draft board,
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: and then you go through everyone else's draft boards. So I,
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: again I liked Mac Jones, but I looked at Mac
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Jones is not a top three, top four quarterback in
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: that draft class. I just saw a better upside in
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: these other quarterbacks. So I always had doubt about it.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: And again, we had the whole the whole media world
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: telling us for literally a month and a half, two
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: months that it was it was pretty much a guarantee
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: of Mac Jones was gonna be the third pick overall,
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: and I kept saying I didn't. I just didn't get it.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: And then yeah, basically it's all rumors. Like we'll talk
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: on this show today about all the rumors I'm hearing.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: That's a lot of what these next couple of weeks are.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: It's so much BS, and you have to sift through
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: all this BS to try to find I need on
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: a hayjack. When it's like, okay, if if good information
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: is matching up with another person is really good information
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: and you trust both sources literally nighte ties that attend,
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: that's that's good info. Again, there's there's a lot of guys,
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: especially in sports gambling, that they give such shit info
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: because they're trying to move lines. Like they know. If
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: I put something out there, say it's just to my
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: hundred clients, that's gonna move a number. These people have
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: money to move numbers. I've gotten duped plenty of times.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: I can't tell you any times I've been duped. But
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: that's again that's me being young. I've learned over the
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: years what's who's to screw on me, who's not? And
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: last year is a rare exception where I thought that
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: line sunk with Mac got some really good intel basically
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: long story short from a bookmaker in a California area,
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: and this guy was giving as good info where okay,
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: we could trust this guy. There's something fishy about why
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: people kept bet in Trey Lance to go a third overall.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: And I told you though I had PTSD from it.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Where when Goodell announced the pick, I heard Mac Jones
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: in my head even though he had said Trey Lands,
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: I literally collapsed to the floor. So that's one of
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: those where this year I'm not betting anywhere near as
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: much as I did last year. Um, things could change,
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: but at this point I'm not close to six figures,
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: so I do have some money out there. We'll talk
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: about it as we get into the show here. But
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: that was definitely a unicorn situation where it was getting
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: some really good info and all of a sudden, my
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: phone was blowing up because it was like, Okay, just
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: checked out and everyone was jumping on this line. So
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: that was that was crazy. I think we literally had
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: the show during the draft, right, we did a Thursday show.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: I had my bad phone, I had my other phone,
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: and it was like I was getting bombarded. I hopped
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: off the call with you. I literally drove to A C.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: I pulled over right because I don't know at the time,
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: I think I only had one runner. I had to
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: pull over on the side of the A C Expressway
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: do some video with you. Put the you guys put
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: the video. And by time I got to a lank city,
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  Speaker 1: the number had already moved from I think it was
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: like plus nine hundred maybe down to plus three hundred
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: by the time I got there. So and at forty
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: five minutes an hour time, and I was like, all right,
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: I love Chad, that's the last time that's happening, um,
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: but now we've broken other stuff. That was definitely one
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: of those I was like, holy sh it, that was
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: crazy that the info got out that quick and like
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: that one day that that line moved six plus six hundred.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: It was. That was really fun last year that draft.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: Hey Freeman, while Simon is talking, I can see you
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: on the zoom here miling. Tell people when you started
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: to realize the opportunity in the draft markets. I think
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: it was the Baker Mayfield Draft, which, uh, I feel
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: like it all comes full circle now with you know,
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: questions about is Baker going to be traded in time
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: for the draft, but it was it was the Baker
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Mayfield Draft. We had the five quarterbacks in the first round,
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: which you know would have been one of the largest
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: quarterback classes we've seen in NFL history. And so it
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: was that was a fantastic draft. And you did see
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: the offshore books uh really starting to amplify the markets
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: that they were offering there. And it wasn't even just
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: you know, like a year a couple of years later
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: that you see, especially with COVID hitting, you saw the
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: legal sports books start to put props out there because
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: what else were people going to be betting on? Uh
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: So that was that was really the Baker Mayfield Draft.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: And we had some situation that year where people thought
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Sam Donald might be the number one pick, people thought
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: maybe Josh Allen would be the number one pick, and
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: then the day of Boom, the lines just move within
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: thirty minutes and it's Baker Mayfield as the number one pick. Uh.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: So you know, we maybe we'll see a similar situation
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  Speaker 1: this year with Adan Hutchinson, Travon Walker, maybe Evan Neil
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: is a potential number one pick. I think we're going
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: to see some lines move pretty intriguingly the day of Well,
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, Simon just said something really interesting. Everyone makes
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: their own draft board and then you start making your
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: bets off of that. Freedman back to you before I
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: go to Simon with the same question, when did you
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: make your first draft board? And then how quickly did
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: you start investing in the market. I did release a
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: way too early mocked for the class the week after
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: the draft, and I did come up actually a a
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: top fifty big board for all of the prospects that
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: I looked at when completing that mock. But I didn't
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: go back to that big board until after the Super Bowl. Simon,
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: at what point did you start making bets on the
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: NFL Draft this year? And who did you bet. I
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: would say every year is different, for sure. Everyone has
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: different times where you do differ things. Where I used
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: to start prepping in December, nowadays I probably don't start
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: until I don't know. I got back early March. I
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: started getting into it, I'd say first week of March,
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: and then by you know, the second or third week
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: of March, I'll have my actual draft board up. Because
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: again I steal from because I don't watch college football.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: You know, it's during the NFL season. You're just locked in.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: So I started getting to college football around bowl season.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: I'll start watching tape on guys that I read about
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: and things like that. But it really is a long process.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: So a lot of these experts spend the whole year
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: doing it because it's just so many players to go through.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: So for me and my draft, what I would start saying,
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: I really started betting and building out mid March. And
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: then again, last year was kind of a fluky situation.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: I really had a good read on that and I
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: was able to bet at all month and a half
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: until the draft, where that's that was an advantage. Right
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: now that we're so close, the most I can get
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: down is again depends on the sports book. Most I
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: can get down as a grand per bet like that's
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: they kind of want to limit their exposure, um, because
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: sports books are getting really smart at this stuff. So
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: I I would say the bets start pouring in mid March,
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: and the only stuff I've really touched so far has
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: been the QB stuff because you know, I mean, I
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: love betting quarterbacks and I just think this is a
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: really interesting class. Because again we'll we'll dive more into
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: this class, but it is a unique class where people
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: really didn't know who the number one quarterback was until
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: these last couple of weeks. And the number one pick overall,
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: which I love Hutchinson. I think that's great value and
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: that's something again we're gonna talk about the show coming up. Yeah,
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: the second Simon's point. This year is very different than
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: last year. Last year it was heavy immediately bet and
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: it was it was a marathon, that was a sprint
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: the entire time up until the draft. This year is
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: very different. I made two bets pretty quickly on the quarterback.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: It would be the number one quarterback. I believe we
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: talked about that on the show. I was with you
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: guys previously. Um, Malik Willis plus two hundred and can
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: you pick it plus one? But those were the only
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: bets that I had sitting out there for about a month.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: I just really didn't like a lot of what I
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: was seeing in the market. This year. It's so unknown
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: what's going to happen in the top ten relative to
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: last year. Uh, And it's only been the past couple
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: of weeks that I have really started to get back
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: into the market, UH with some force. Think we talked
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: about is just the demand. We last year had five
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks that was like I think they had every day
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: at either clients or other pros hit me up talking
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: to the draft. This year it's been very staggnant, like, sure,
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: if I get together a couple of their pros, we'll
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: talk about it. But it's it's definitely different last year,
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: where it's just not there's always excitement, right is the
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: NFL Draft, But that was crazy last year, like the
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: five quarterbacks, it was NonStop talk. This year, well, it's
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: been Brady, it's been Russell Wilson. There's been a lot
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: of quarterback movement for us to talk about, not the draft.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: So that's definitely one thing I've noticed. The difference of
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: this year compared to last year for sure. And also
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: the books haven't offered nearly as many props this year
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: as they did last year, which is why I was
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: out of the market for a little bit, just waiting
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: for the books to put props out there. And so
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: now you see the typical draft position props that you
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: see out there, Evan neil over under three and a
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: half or four and a half, But you still don't
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: see in most sports books a lot of the other props.
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: You know that would be like Ravens offensive player or
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: defensive player with their first pick, or Ravens which position
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: do they draft with their first round pick? And you
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: know I have all of the positions listed there. You
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: don't see a lot of props like that at the
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: books this year. Uh. And I think part of it
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: is because they got hammered pretty good last year and
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: they don't want that exposed. They don't want that heat.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: So you mentioned Kenny Pickett, uh, And I do want
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: to go sort of through the top of the draft
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: board because I do think it's interesting right now. Uh.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: Probably three players that are getting a lot of heat. Um.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: But you mentioned Kenny Pickett some some draft notes from
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: researcher extraordinary at the Action Network, Evan Abrams, who's brilliant
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: at this The players from the University of Pittsburgh who
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: have been drafted in the first round in the last decade,
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: uh Aaron Donald two fourteen. You may have heard of him,
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: Urban Meyer hasn't, but you guys may have heard of
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: him overall to the then St. Louis Rams. And this
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: year it will be Kenny Pickett, the University of Pittsburgh
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: quarterback drafted in the first round the last time before
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: Kenny Pickett, Simon, can you name him? Is it my
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: uncle Dan Marino? It is your uncle Dan Marino. He's
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: not to your uncle though. No, but I was born
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: I told you. I was born in Miami, the same
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: hospital that he had his kids up. No way, I
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: didn't know that. You did tell me that. I don't
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: remember that. Yeah, I was there for a couple of
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: coffee that my mom swooped me back to England because
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: I guess they wanted me to have American citizenship. The nineties,
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: what a weird time that was. The eighties they were
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: fucking whack. The eighties. Don't even listen. I can barely
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: remember them. Do not, do not talk to me about
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: the eighties. Um, all right, so let's talk about the
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: top of the board. You mentioned Simon Aidan Hutchinson, Like,
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: where are we seeing opportunities the Jags They put the
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: franchise tag on Cam Robinson, which all of a sudden
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: meant Evan Neil probably not gonna go number one overall,
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: the left tackle from Alabama. So what are we seeing
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: at the top of the board. Matthew Friedman, tell me
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: about the opportunity go It's intriguing. So everyone is looking
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: at Aiden Hutchinson thinking that he's going to be the guy.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: He's been the odds on fat for a majority of
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: this process now, but Trayvon Walker is starting to gain steam.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: And I will just say there is a split in
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: the Jacksonville the Jacksonville organization where you have ownership wanting
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: the golden boy, Aiden Hutchinson, you want general manager Trent Balky,
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: who wants Trayvon Walker. And then you have the coaching staff,
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: which is more of an offensive oriented coaching staff that
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: has Lawrence, you know, one of the greatest prospects of
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: all time, and they want to protect him. And so
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: they're thinking, maybe we can get an offensive tackle and
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: offensive lineman, someone to help solidify everything in front of him.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: And so I think you could see this going three
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: different ways. And I'll just say one more thing. Trent Balky,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: we know that he has a very tumultuous history with
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: Jim Harbaugh over his body. Is he going to want
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: to draft Jim Harbaugh's golden boy is the number one
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: overall pick? Like, I know that's not very professional way
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: to think about it, but like Balky has made questionable
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: decisions in the past, and Trayvon Walker is exactly the
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: type of guy, the athletic marvel that Balky has historically
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: wanted for his organizations. I think we've already seen this
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: line moved from Aiden Hutchinson towards Trayvon Walker. It is
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: going to increasingly move in that direction. And if I
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: had to make a bet right now on the number
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: one pick, it would be Trayvon Walker and not Aidan Hutchinson.
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: So we're gonna make a bet based on your supposition
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: that Trent Balky's feelings for Aiden Hutchinson's college coach are
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: so so poisonous that he would put his team in
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: a bad position just to avoid drafting a player coach
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: by Jim Harbaugh. It wouldn't be the first time the
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: ballky has made a questionable decision when it comes to Harbaugh.
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: But it's not just that, not primarily that. It's the
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: mock draft data and it's the odds that we see
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: up on the board. I don't think there's any value
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: right now embedding on Aiden Hutchinson. But there is value
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: I think based on the mock draft data and based
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: on where this line has been, and I think the
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: trajectory of where it is going towards the draft. I
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: would bet it now because it's going to be closer
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: to minus money by the time draft it gets here. Simon,
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: you gotta take on what Freedman is saying. Yeah, I'm
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: already heavily invested in Aiden, so I'm hoping he's wrong.
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: I just like you're talking. As soon as they kind
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: of addressed that offensive line position, I just looked at
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: my looked at my board and thought, what's the smart
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: thing to do here? You just take the guaranteed stud
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: We we know, we know what Hutchins is gonna do.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: Like this kid is he's a legit Jake, He's one
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: of the brothers. He's just he's built the same way
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: as then like the Boastes. They're all these really really speed,
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: strong edge rushers, and is back to back super bowl
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: as we've seen kind of what's flipped these super Bowls.
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: It's these guys on the edges. So when I'm looking
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: this team in Jacksonville, I honestly hate teams that draft
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: high up in this position, don't take quarterbacks. But they're
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: in the proposition they don't need a quarterback like you.
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: Just like they have Lawrence. You get the d end
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: here the offensive lineman. They've kind of already addressed it.
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: So they got Josh Allen on one side, Hutchinson on
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: the other side. That's a huge deal for this Jacksonville
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: team that they kind of need to build that in
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: the inside out. They gotta build the old line, the
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: D line. They've addressed the old line this offseason. I
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: think they'll do it again next offseason. And they all
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: had another piece of that. But if you have Josh Allen,
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen and Hutchinson can work out on that D line,
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: that's that's incredible for Jacksonville. So I'm hoping that Matthews
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: right that the line keeps moving because I'll take more
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: value on Hutchinson because it was at minus two at
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: one point once the draft of minus two and I
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: dipped in, like I started buying in on it. It's
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: down to one seventy now I've I've been buying the
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: dip that it's been dropping down, and I'm getting a
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: little nervous because, like he's talking about, there's a lot
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: of rumors with Jacksonville apparently really are unsure what they
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: want to do right now. So I still think it's
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: good value because I think he is the no brainer here.
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: We've already heard the lines. They're praying that they passed
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: on them. They really want this kid, so to me,
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: I I just don't see Jacksonville passing on it. But
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: it is interesting that you know what, are we nine
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: days out, eight days out and we still have no
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: idea the number one pick. Well, it's it is interesting.
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: If you're Aiden Hutchinson, would you rather go to Jacksonville
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: or Detroit? Come on, come on, Jacksonville, you get you
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: get the crack, kick that out of you, and it's November.
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: You can head to the beach after a game in Jacksonville.
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: Guess what you're doing in Detroit? November. You're miserable. It's
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: it's not the place you want to be. So yeah,
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: but he doesn't care. He's from there. That's why it's
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: interesting to me. That's true. I don't know. If I
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: had to thank a guy with millions of dollars, I
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: would say it would be nice to have five years
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: in Jacksonville. Then he can move back to Detroit after
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: his first contract. I'm also thinking out the trajectory of
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: each team more than I'm thinking about place to live
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: and opportunity. I mean, much much rather be Jacksonville. You
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: already have the quarterback. I mean, as much as we
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: laugh and joke about golf, it's like again Detroit. I
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: don't want to be too hard on them. They're one
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: of these teams that I kind of hate because it's
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: like you're trading water until you have a quarterback. So
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: this year, who knows what they're gonna do. If I
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: was them, I would just start drafting the quarterback like
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: Malik Williams, whoever willis, whoever you're gonna draft there. They're
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: just gonna do what the Browns kept doing. The Browns
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: kept seeing an excuse of oh, we're gonna keep waiting
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: let's draft Miles Garrett instead of drafting uh, you know,
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson or even your boy Robiski.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: It's like, these teams just keep kicking the can down
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: the road, and I hate teams that do that stuff.
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: So I already read that Detroit's gonna pass on the
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: quarterback on the top two, and it just pisses me
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: off because it's like, you're just you're just what, You're
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: just wasting time. You're wasting another year of your team's talent.
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: All right, Freeman, I had said to Simon earlier in
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: the year, I would not be surprised. In fact, I
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: was placing a bet that there would not be a
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: quarterback taken in the top ten? Am I right or wrong?
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: Who will the first quarterback b? And what will they
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: be taken? Chad? I think you might be right. The
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: sharp mock drafts right now are pointing towards a quarterback
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: going at Carolina number six to Carolina, but it's pretty split.
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: They're pointing that way just a little bit, and I
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: honestly don't think that's gonna happen. I think they're going
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: to try to trade back because they don't have picks
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: in rounds two and three, try to trade back and
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: maybe draft a quarterback later in the first round. If
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: I had to say right now, who's the number one
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: quarterback and where he goes, I would say it's Malik Willis,
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: going number twenty to the Steelers. This is a bad
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: quarterback class. It's just it's not all time bad, but
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: it's pretty close. The under two and a half quarterbacks taken.
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: I know there's a lot of heat in mock drafts
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: that we could see three, maybe four quarterbacks go. A
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: couple quarterbacks sneak into the end of round one. I
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: will say, consistently, having studied mock drafts for years, quarterbacks
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: are consistently over mocked in this exercise. We just routinely
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: see one too many quarterbacks mocked. And so I'm gonna
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: take the under two and a half quarterbacks. If we
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: see a quarterback go in round one or in the
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: top ten, it's it's only one. And if I had
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: to bet right now, I would bet no. Interesting you're
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: saying the under is two and a half, we can
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: make the assumption that it's Malik Willis from Liberty and
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: Kenny Pickett from the University of Pittsburgh. If there were
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: a third who sneaks in there, free men you go,
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: it's split between Desmond Ritter and Matt Corral. I would
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: actually lean towards Corral. He's played in the SEC multiple
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: years of production there, and he got an invitation to
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: the NFL Draft, and that doesn't mean everything, but guys
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: who get invitations to the draft, especially if they are quarterbacks,
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: they almost always go on the first day. So that
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: makes me a little bit nervous about the over under
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: of two and a half because there are three quarterbacks
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: who are going to be attending the draft. But still,
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: this is a bad class. I'm thinking of Geno Smith
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: slipping today two. I could see something like that. This
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: is what makes betting on the draft so interesting and
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: a little bit absurd. You guys are both is deep
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: in modeling analytics on field translation to what that means
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: for a number against the spread or totals or player props,
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: whatever it is. What you just said, Freeman, I want
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: to unpack this so people really understand how this is
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: both completely fun and completely absurd. You're judging the sharp mocks,
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: which I don't know who that is. We're judging the
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: fact that Historically quarterbacks are overmocked, and you're trying to
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: into it from the league's invice invite of a third
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: quarterback that he is likely to be drafted on day one,
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: and what is the value of that potentially being in
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: the first round. That is no way to make a
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: decision on betting. It's totally ridiculous. It is totally ridiculous.
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: But the thing is you can quantify some of this
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: and put it in a model, which is still ridiculous
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: on its own, but at least you can make some
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: sort of fake numerical judgment. Simon, are you standing by
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: your claim that a quarterback will be taken in the
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: top ten and if so, have you placed a bet
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: bet on that quarterback? Yeah? Of course we all know
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks going top ten. Chat, it was it was asinin
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: when you said it, I said it was stupid. Now
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: we said, here, Matthew Freeman's backing up, what the hell
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: is happening? Uh? Like, It's like it's like looking back
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: and be like, did Josh sound deserved to be a
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: top ten quarterback? It's the same thing. These guys are
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: just this raw ball of clay. Like if a kid's
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: over six three he's got a big gass arm like
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: this kid from Liberty does, and he's fast. They don't
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: care that he was throwing a garbage and that his
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: numbers weren't great. They're looking at what can I take
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: this clay and mold him into So, I mean, I've
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: heard Pittsburgh is obsessed with him. I could see them
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: moving up and grabbing him. I can't see Carolina passed
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: on it, just because, like you said, they don't have
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: a second and third round pick. This is kind of
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: it for this coaching staff. It feels like, is he
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: really gonna tie his job to Sam Donald this upcoming
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: season and they're gonna be terrible in Carolina? And that's
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: just it, Like they're gonna fire the coaching staff and
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: maybe the GM there in Carolina. I can see them
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: being desperate. So to me, I could see him a
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: leak making the top ten. UM. I've actually bet the
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: over two and a half quarterbacks just because it's kind
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: of like Lamar Jackson. I've just seen teams they trade
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: back into the end of the first round to get
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: that fifth year option. That's a big deal. Instead of
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: waiting taking a quarterback in the second round, you have
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: them for four years. They like to come back in.
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: It could be Detroit that trades back into that first
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: round and grabs that quarterback. So I am actually on
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: the opposite side. I just like quarterback classes that people
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: say the class sucks. Those are my favorite classes. Again,
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: we talked about the Rabiski class. Everyone hated that class.
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: People kept saying, there's no number one quarterback. These guys
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: aren't that great, aren't that great? They'd be lucky if
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: one of these guys becomes an All Pro. Little did
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: we know we had my homes in that class. So
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: it is tough where it's just a lot of noise
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: with the media. But I'm with him that I've just
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: I'm not crazy about this class because of all the
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: little warts these guys have. Like the Cincinnati quarterback. I've
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: watched his film. He looked great, but then he played
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: Bam and he looked like the quarterback for Cincinnati. I
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: mean real, Larry is good. But it's yeah, it's tough
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: for me. So I like the way I bet this
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: so far. I bet the over the quarterback stuff I
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: am nervous about, Like you just talked about the top
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: ten thing with you, Chad, just because I couldn't believe
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: when you said it. Just I just think teams, when
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: it comes to quarterbacks, you always overpay for one, just
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: because if you don't have a good quarterback, what do
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: you really have? And that's how I feel about this
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: draft class. It's like, yeah, it's not the best draft class,
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: but at the same time, you have a lot of
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: desperate teams that would be happy to take one of
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: these guys. And you know, tie your career to a
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: quarterback where it's like, we'll just give me another year.
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: We'll see how he does next year. Kind of deal.
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: A lot of the things I say are unbelievable right
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: up until they happen. That's how it goes with me.
• 28:40
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• 30:13
  Speaker 1: I like your logic about why you would go over
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: two and a half on quarterbacks more than I like
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: Freedman's logic of this guy got an invite to be
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: at the draft, so we got a glean from that
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: that he's going on day one versus Yeah, teams sneak
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: into picking a quarterback with the last pick because you know, like,
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: maybe they've got time to develop a quarterback and there's
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: someone they like and it's worth a flyer. And when
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: you're drafting at the bottom of the first round, you're
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: not getting what you're expecting to be all pro talent anyways,
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: and your team is usually pretty good, so you could
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: see trying to get someone you think and has a
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: high ceiling. In the last couple of minutes, here, Freedman,
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: give me right now your best bets for the NFL Draft.
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: Best bets, all right? I will say Evan Neil versus
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: a chem A Kwantu. That is a great matchup in
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: terms of who's going to be the top offensive lineman
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: taken in the draft. If you look across the market,
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: A Quantu is favored, and I get it. He's the
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: sexier player on film. You just see him pancaking multiple
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: dudes when he's outrun blocking. But Evan Neil is the
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: more polished prospect. He has more more versatility. He's played
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: right tackle, left tackle, he's played interior as a guard.
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: I think he should be favored. He's favored in the
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: sharp mock drafts. He's favored by a number of other
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: factors that I look at and across the market. You know,
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: anywhere from plus one thirty to plus one fifties is
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: a number that you can find. I am betting on
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: Evan Neil to be the top offensive lineman taken in
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: this class. That's really interesting because there was a time
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: where I remember Simon during the football season, we talked
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: about one prospect and it was a Kim Kwanu from
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: NC State co offensive lineman of the week. When the
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: season began, like Freeman said, had this sort of laundry
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: list of amazing stats, rose up the draft board and
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: there were rumors about him potentially being number one overall,
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: and the markets completely moved on him. Yeah, and honestly,
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: I'll stem from apparently one guy write in an article,
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: I think Evan was the one that actually figured it out,
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: Like because I couldn't figure it out. I was like,
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: I've called multiple professional groups. None of them bet it.
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: Like I I didn't know who was betting it, and
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: it came out we won't name the newspaper, but someone
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: wrote about it and they put it online. The guy
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: moved there from a hundred of one down to ten
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: to one. Now, I mean, I've seen a couple of
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: different websites having him mocked being the first serverall picked
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: the Jacksonville Now so I mean that it's crazy. I
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: think where it was that what was that three or
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: four months ago? Chat? Now where we're at, he's down
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: from ten to one, which is what we gave out
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: on the show because we're like, hey, someone knows something
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: to take a flyer on it. I love these kind
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: of drafts. It's not great for betting on because it's
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: so much unknown, but I love it because it's fun.
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: It's like, this is this is what we want, right,
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: It's like, give me a really crazy mental draft, because
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: if one of these teams do trade up for one
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: of these quarterbacks, it's gonna kind of set off a
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: domino for this whole draft, where all we've really talked
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: about is just gonna be kind of boring. It's gonna
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: be a bunch of deal lineman, a bunch of the
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: offensive lineman. I mean, this draft is really really, really good,
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: but it's not sexy like people love. And I think
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: that's kind of been the big difference here where it's
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: like football heads, this is like a really great draft,
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: but to just the fans of it, they're just like,
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: who's the quarterback? And what are the two receivers from
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: Ohio State? And it's like kind of been one of
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: those things when people are talking or asking me about
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: this year's draft. Alright, Freedman's favorite bet is uh Evan
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: plus money to go before a Kim Kwano from NC State. Simon,
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: before we wrap up here, what is your favorite draft
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: bet or bets? I literally saw before we got on
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: here they had over two and a half d lineman
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: taken in the top five. They've taken it down, so
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: I don't know if something's happens to be on the show.
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: I actually really like that bet. I think there's good
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: value in that bet for top five because you know,
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: it seems like it could be too offensive linemen, and
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: then again there could be there could be a quarterback
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: sneaking in there. But all I keep hearing about is
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: Walker Hutchinson and Kevan uh So. I don't know. I
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: would say that was when I like coming in. But
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: if people are looking for just now for me to bet,
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: I liked the over the quarterback to two and a half.
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: I think it's minus one ten or minus one oh five.
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: I just I like the idea of a team trading
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: back in and doing what they did with Lamar Jackson,
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: Like you just draft a guy, get him for five years,
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: ouad of the years, and we talk all the time.
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: That's how teams make Super Bowl runs. Nowadays, they get
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: this rookie contract and they build around it. I know
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: teams are gonna do it. So to me that that's
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: where I see value right now. Was taking over two
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: and a half quarterbacks first round. All Right, Freeman likes
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: uh Neo to be drafted first over a Quantu. Simon
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: likes over two and a half quarterbacks in the first round.
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: Freeman actually likes under two and a half quarterbacks in
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: the first round, so we'll get a good look at
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: that four. Matthew Freedman, director of content for Betting Pros
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: and Fantasy Pros for my BFF, my companion, my compadre,
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: Simon Hunter for our producer Extraordinaire Matt Mitchell. I am
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: Chad Mellman. Hey listen, don't forget people, Don't forget. Action
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: Network is hosting a live happy hour in Vegas on
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: April for the Draft and honor of the Draft. NFL
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: Draft Happy Hour at Circus Stadium Swim in Downtown Las
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: Vegas Wednesday, April, Open bar, surprise guest betting tips from
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: some of your favorite Action pros. Gotta be twenty one
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: or over. It's totally free, but requires an r s
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: v P, so if you're in Vegas next week, check
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: out the link in this episode description to artist VP
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: until Thursday. I am Chad Millman. Rate review, subscribe, Spotify,
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• 36:37
  Speaker 1: I love you,