Latest / CRYPTO 101 / Crypto Rundown: BTC All Time Highs & Institutions Are Quietly Buying Crypto While building Crypto Products

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Crypto Rundown: BTC All Time Highs & Institutions Are Quietly Buying Crypto While building Crypto Products · CRYPTO 101

0:08
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, everyone, welcome back to the crypto rundown presented by Gemini, your bridge to the future of money.
0:17
[SPEAKER_00]: And we're excited to have all of you back here with us again today.
0:20
[SPEAKER_00]: It is going to be an electric episode.
0:22
[SPEAKER_00]: Bitcoin's coming off of fresh all-time highs.
0:24
[SPEAKER_00]: The Hulkcoin market is starting the rally.
0:28
[SPEAKER_00]: And just when we felt like where we were getting to that proper breakout, entering back into the four-us-un.
0:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, a little bit of selling pressure came in, so we're going to talk about it, but beyond just price action, which we want to cover at the front end of the episode, there's a lot of other stuff going on here.
0:46
[SPEAKER_00]: We want to give a quick update with what's happening around these new spot ETFs, specifically in regards to Litecoin, Solana, and XRP, because their deadlines are right around the corner.
0:56
[SPEAKER_00]: In fact, some of them have already passed.
0:58
[SPEAKER_00]: However,
0:59
[SPEAKER_00]: There's been no ETF approvals.
1:00
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to explain why.
1:01
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to explain what's going on and what you can all expect moving forward.
1:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, beyond this, we want to look at the exchange flows.
1:08
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, these things are at five-year lows.
1:11
[SPEAKER_00]: The I-Bit Bitcoin ETF continues to just set and break record after record.
1:16
[SPEAKER_00]: And we're even seeing gold kind of continue to all-time highs and people are drawing new kinds of,
1:21
[SPEAKER_00]: Bitcoin gold correlations, which is something that's been looked at a lot recently.
1:25
[SPEAKER_00]: So on top of this, there's lots of other fundamentals and technicals that we need to look at, a lot of stuff happening in the news flow.
1:32
[SPEAKER_00]: And our job over here is to cover all of the catalyst.
1:35
[SPEAKER_00]: So, and everything from the fundamentals in the news to the technicals on the charts, we like to cover everything so that you all don't have to.
1:44
[SPEAKER_00]: So all we ask is that if you like the content that we make, consider hitting that like and subscribe button, and let's go ahead and continue on with today's episode.
1:52
[SPEAKER_00]: So, Teevel, it's an electric one where we're moving higher, and I'm liking it.
1:58
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, man, it's even though it's a pullback, it's in all time highs.
2:02
[SPEAKER_01]: Celebration here on the run-down, you particularly were calling for it both on X and just texting me directly telling me,
2:11
[SPEAKER_01]: to cue up the music for our famous, uh, can you take me higher Bitcoin video that we play every time that Bitcoin hits a new all-time highs.
2:19
[SPEAKER_01]: So overall it's an exciting time.
2:21
[SPEAKER_01]: It's something that again, if you've been listening to this show for, you know, the last month, six to eight weeks,
2:27
[SPEAKER_01]: We've been preparing you for this, we've led you through kind of that volatile September, and just kind of had the eyes on the prize of where we thought the market was going.
2:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Now that we're here, again, it's time to zoom out and let's take all the facts and see what the macros are and the technicals are and we can continue to navigate this together, but it is an exciting time and I think, you know, as these episodes continue to stack up on top of each other, it's just an endless flow of news.
2:53
[SPEAKER_00]: a positive way so we're gonna bring all that to you but we'll we'll kick it off with some technicals because what's more fun than charting an all-time high which you read like a book all the way last week yeah exactly man let's hope that this works this week I know last week it was given us a bit of issues yeah I can can you see my screen not not yet no
3:16
[SPEAKER_00]: not yet.
3:17
[SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
3:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, give me a second here.
3:20
[SPEAKER_00]: It looks like Riverside is already frozen on me.
3:24
[SPEAKER_00]: When I tried to share my screen, but you know, people we are seeing a break to all-time highs, you know, just to kind of tell everyone here of what's been happening.
3:32
[SPEAKER_00]: We had Bitcoin having that that break to the upside and it looks like it's on now.
3:36
[SPEAKER_00]: That's great.
3:36
[SPEAKER_01]: It looks great.
3:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so, you know, we had this break out to all-time highs, and I was on a call yesterday kind of talking about this with some people inside the community, and I was saying, hey, you know, one thing to think about here, some food for thought, is that we've had this moved to all-time highs, no kind of clear break out, and then we fell back in.
3:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Another move that was slightly higher than before, by again, no kind of convincing move in close above here, and we fell back in.
4:02
[SPEAKER_00]: And I was telling people over here, again, you know, we've seen these slightly higher high
4:07
[SPEAKER_00]: where we fall back in.
4:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Don't be caught off guard if we do something like that again.
4:12
[SPEAKER_00]: And sure enough here today, you know, we're coming back in.
4:15
[SPEAKER_00]: Instead of topping out at 124 and a half, we top that at 126.
4:18
[SPEAKER_00]: So again, we moods just slightly higher.
4:22
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, the first time we did this, we creeped up to 123.
4:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Then we creeped up about another one percent after that.
4:28
[SPEAKER_00]: This time we creeped up again another one one and a half percent to the upside.
4:33
[SPEAKER_00]: And we're starting to tumble back in here.
4:34
[SPEAKER_00]: So this has kind of been a reoccurring theme.
4:36
[SPEAKER_00]: where we just barely hit a new all-time high.
4:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, this time it wasn't barely.
4:40
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, we pretty significantly hit it all-time high.
4:42
[SPEAKER_00]: But ever since then, it's been ever so slightly to the upside.
4:46
[SPEAKER_00]: And we're falling back in over here.
4:48
[SPEAKER_00]: So it looks like, you know, this 12526K area is just still a brutal resistance zone where we're having a hard time breaking through it.
4:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I do think there will be a moment where we just destroyed this thing.
5:03
[SPEAKER_00]: And we head up higher.
5:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, I, it is extremely frustrating, I think, and this is the big thing that I see from the community.
5:10
[SPEAKER_00]: of people just frustrated like why won't this zone break like we're just ready to break out you look at the the equities market soaring through all-time highs you know week after week you look at the metals market especially gold which we'll talk about later and let's just take a look at these real fast you know you look at equities just pushing up higher um you go and you look at gold and people are saying why can't we have a chart like this and then you go over to Bitcoin and I think people are feeling a little bit frustrated that we're triple topping here
5:37
[SPEAKER_00]: and not having to break out.
5:38
[SPEAKER_00]: And so I think that frustration's warranted, however, what I'll say is that I really do believe that we're going to break this, right?
5:47
[SPEAKER_00]: And crypto has had one hack of a year so far, and it's always going to be kind of a more volatile asset.
5:54
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you look at it off the lows, again, it's still outperformed everything kind of since April, where this thing ran about 71%.
6:00
[SPEAKER_00]: And
6:01
[SPEAKER_00]: You put that up against a lot of these other assets, you know, although they've been more consistent.
6:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, you have Bitcoin outperforming off the lows versus QQQ.
6:11
[SPEAKER_00]: And gold was just actually been, you know, surprising, surprisingly, uh, really, really good over here.
6:15
[SPEAKER_00]: If you kind of look at this thing since the April lows,
6:19
[SPEAKER_00]: It's only up about 34%, so again, in hindsight, people look kind of look at this and they say, oh, well, gold's trending up higher and equities are trending up higher, but when you actually look at the performance from the bottom of the tariff trade to where we're at right now in the current day, Bitcoin's still outperforming QQQ or NASDAQ by over 20% and gold by about 40%.
6:43
[SPEAKER_00]: And so just a friendly reminder there is that like, hey, we've still had a really good run.
6:47
[SPEAKER_00]: I understand there hasn't been the same level of consistency, but one, we're still outperforming.
6:51
[SPEAKER_00]: And two, I think it really is only a matter of time before we actually get kind of this greater move to the upside here.
6:58
[SPEAKER_00]: So there's three things that I'm kind of watching out for here on Bitcoin Tvo.
7:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Number one is we kind of had this attempted breakout and maybe we come back into around 1-21, 1-20-ish.
7:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Downs here and continue to the upside.
7:12
[SPEAKER_00]: I think if we don't do it there, we could come back into around 117 and find some support.
7:17
[SPEAKER_00]: around the previous highs, maybe even the 20 and 50 day moving average.
7:21
[SPEAKER_00]: If we crack there, then maybe around 1-10 we're going to have a lot of support, and then we just have a ton of support after this.
7:28
[SPEAKER_00]: But there's a lot of different layers to kind of look after here.
7:30
[SPEAKER_00]: So my big takeaway that I want to...
7:33
[SPEAKER_00]: kind of plant in everyone's minds is that there's a lot of support levels beneath where we're at.
7:38
[SPEAKER_00]: In my idea for this trade is that we pull back form a higher low and then we continue to the upside afterwards.
7:46
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that that's the most likely scenario over here on on Bitcoin.
7:51
[SPEAKER_00]: So I would still be watching these pullbacks.
7:53
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, I've been watching these areas for a little bit of profit taking.
7:56
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it makes sense again when any kind of move where we get a new all-time high.
8:00
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it's okay to look at this idea of profit taking.
8:03
[SPEAKER_00]: However, you know, I still think that there's more gas in the tank.
8:06
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't see this being the top of the market.
8:09
[SPEAKER_00]: I would be shocked if it is.
8:12
[SPEAKER_00]: The other thing I would just say kind of before I let everyone go back to kind of the fundamental side of things.
8:18
[SPEAKER_00]: is it really was time for a pullback.
8:21
[SPEAKER_00]: When you look at this move that Bitcoin did over here, this was essentially saying, hey, this was eight days, almost eight days in a row of green.
8:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Bitcoin appreciated about 16% to the upside.
8:32
[SPEAKER_00]: It gained over $17,000 in value.
8:35
[SPEAKER_00]: And seven out of the last eight days were green daily candles, which is crazy.
8:40
[SPEAKER_00]: And the only red day that we had was a day where Bitcoin ended up 0.2% red.
8:46
[SPEAKER_00]: So, extremely long streak of green ever since this breakout, where we do after a 16% move to the upside and having seven out of the last days, seven out of the eight last days be green, probably do for a little bit of a pullback after something like that, and it's perfectly okay.
9:04
[SPEAKER_00]: But what I did start to get a sense of TV at the top, and this is where I want to loop you back in, is I started to get a sense of people having euphoria, come back to the market.
9:14
[SPEAKER_00]: Bitcoin was pushing up to the highs.
9:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Ethereum was getting awfully close to the highs, and I started to get a little bit of that euphoric feeling.
9:22
[SPEAKER_00]: I saw it happen in people that I was talking to, but did you see the same thing kind of on your end on the social side of things?
9:31
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think it's just kind of the agreement of when when will we break out and what's going to propel us forward?
9:38
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think we've talked about this on one of the episodes where we've had endless, endless news flow of positive regulation and sentiment fundamentals and technicals, but like we keep getting kind of topped out of this range.
9:49
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, where where is it going?
9:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, everybody's kind of bought into this higher narrative.
9:55
[SPEAKER_01]: And just a little teaser because we can't do every single thing that we see on the show.
10:00
[SPEAKER_01]: We'd be here literally all day, which we would love to do with you guys, but other work calls.
10:05
[SPEAKER_01]: A little teaser for Friday, Brandon, I teed up some stats around M2 money supply.
10:10
[SPEAKER_01]: So I know we always show the chart, but it's a little bit deeper dive into the M2 money supply and how some things around the world are contributing for that to go higher.
10:19
[SPEAKER_01]: And then we're actually going to compare the M2 money supply for current day and then go back and history to some
10:24
[SPEAKER_01]: financial events like the 2008 crisis and as well as the 2000 bubble or housing crisis I meant to finish that and then the 2000 bubble so
10:33
[SPEAKER_01]: we can uh... we can talk about that on friday that'll be exciting episode we back live with you guys uh... but overall yet the set the sentiments there i i think people just it's human nature people get bored right and we see it with the numbers on youtube just the generic numbers in the podcast in the community and people uh... you know clamor and for you know wanting to go higher and people just get bored in the range but i think
10:56
[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of like what we like to do is planning our trades and trading our plans and and with your course in technical analysis and kind of getting the whole picture.
11:05
[SPEAKER_01]: If if those times are where you can really plan your next moves and have action plans so it's a it's a those laws are actually good not only for the market to take a breath, but for you to be able to get your strategy down.
11:16
[SPEAKER_00]: bottle on man and you know I think when it comes to what's happening you know one of the big things that stood out and I saw you talking about this was just the exchange reserves we've gone back and forth about this idea and looking at these numbers but you had a pretty cool charter art okay let me bring it up for you
11:36
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it really is fascinating.
11:38
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, if you look at how deep this is falling off a cliff, it's crazy.
11:45
[SPEAKER_00]: And it has continued to go on since 2021.
11:49
[SPEAKER_00]: So you look at this, and there's a bunch of different charts that we can look at, but it's at a five year low.
11:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Bitcoin exchange balances and reserves are at five year lows here.
11:57
[SPEAKER_00]: And this is like the lowest that we have seen in a really, really long time.
12:01
[SPEAKER_00]: So what does this mean to the average person?
12:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Supply is dwindling and demand as we know is skyrocketing, hence why Bitcoin's at all time highs We're seeing ETF adoption.
12:13
[SPEAKER_00]: We're seeing data to get it.
12:15
[SPEAKER_00]: We're seeing countries and different governments and retail and Everyone right across the board wanting to get their hands on Bitcoin and put some sort of crypto
12:25
[SPEAKER_00]: legislator forward and at the same time the supply is dwindling.
12:30
[SPEAKER_00]: So what we're having is a shortage of supply, a surge of demand and what that does the price, is it really pushes it to the upside.
12:38
[SPEAKER_00]: And I've been saying this, I think we are in the process of a big old supply shock.
12:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's what's coming our way.
12:45
[SPEAKER_00]: and that it's probably only a matter of time until we get to the point where this supply shock actually hits.
12:51
[SPEAKER_00]: We know there's resistance, we know that there's some overhead, there's some things happening, you know, prices and breaking out, you could say it's manipulation, you could say it's whatever you want.
13:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Regardless of this, I think there's going to be this big break through moment where the supply shock gets squeezed to the max, it can't be held down anymore.
13:08
[SPEAKER_00]: and we have this giant move upwards.
13:10
[SPEAKER_00]: And you know, here's my opinion.
13:12
[SPEAKER_00]: I think we're, it's gonna feel like a 2017-like moment for anyone who was around them, it was just a ridiculous moment where we had something kind of like this happen.
13:23
[SPEAKER_00]: I would say I'm much smaller and kind of different degree, but prices just started going bonkers and exchanges kinda keep up, they were going offline and we've already seen a number of exchanges go offline
13:37
[SPEAKER_00]: the last year or so.
13:38
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, obviously we've seen it happen with Coinbase, we've seen it happen with some other exchanges, even the crazy kind of AMD moment that the Triedfine Markets had the other day.
13:47
[SPEAKER_00]: And I even caused Robinhood to go offline.
13:50
[SPEAKER_00]: And I rarely ever see Robinhood go offline.
13:53
[SPEAKER_00]: And just goes to show that like investors are hungry.
13:57
[SPEAKER_00]: I think no matter which way you look at it and supply a squeezing.
14:01
[SPEAKER_00]: So keep an eye out on for this
14:05
[SPEAKER_00]: I really do think it's kind of coming our way.
14:07
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I didn't have this on the sheet, but thought it'd be worth pulling it up just kind of the Bitcoin ETF tracker.
14:13
[SPEAKER_01]: We bring this up on the show sometimes.
14:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Brian, Brian likes this one.
14:16
[SPEAKER_01]: But, you know, here's the 30 day, 30 day trend.
14:19
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously, you know, a couple of outflows there instead of the September red days.
14:22
[SPEAKER_01]: But, I mean, this kind of, the correlation of what you showed on the Bitcoin chart of just, you know, it was at six, seven, eight days in a row of green candle, green candle.
14:31
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, the ETF flows are following this massive.
14:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, you know, in the last 30 days, so it's something that again, we can zoom out to a year.
14:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, you know, I don't know pretty, pretty stacked on the front middle and back end here.
14:48
[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll see what Q4 brings, which I think is going to, you know, we think was going to propel us higher.
14:54
[SPEAKER_01]: But, um,
14:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, when these products just take time and those institutions, they just move at a glacier's pace.
15:02
[SPEAKER_01]: And so it is one of those things.
15:04
[SPEAKER_01]: It's as much as we're a range bound, like you said, with a low supply.
15:08
[SPEAKER_01]: And then if there's a green light at the end of the year, or at the beginning of next year, just start piling into this Bitcoin trade, is that something that can break us through?
15:16
[SPEAKER_01]: And then you top that with the low supply.
15:18
[SPEAKER_01]: It's like, there's all these factors that we monitor all the time.
15:21
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, we don't have a crystal ball, so you don't know exactly how it's going to play out.
15:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, it's kind of an odds game, right?
15:27
[SPEAKER_01]: We talk about polymarkid and calcium on this all the time.
15:30
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, where do you think Bitcoin's gonna end?
15:32
[SPEAKER_01]: And we showed you the odds, everybody's thinking higher.
15:35
[SPEAKER_01]: And it's mainly because if you do the research, there's all these things that are just kind of leaning you towards that bullish sentiment and the ETFs as a whole have a momentum.
15:46
[SPEAKER_01]: But none has more momentum than I bit.
15:48
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I bit is absolutely rewriting the history books here.
15:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, and so we'll pull up this chart.
15:56
[SPEAKER_01]: It's basically showing how fast I bet took to get to record levels that, you know, voo took all this time, gold, all these things and I bet it's done it just in 435 days.
16:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, a hundred billion dollar mark.
16:14
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's a hair away from a hundred billion dollars.
16:16
[SPEAKER_01]: and you can see, you know, 2011 days, 2002 and eight days, three thousand, two hundred, three days, and I bit, did it in four hundred and thirty-five days, Brendan, what are your thoughts on that?
16:29
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, that's an insane stat.
16:32
[SPEAKER_00]: it's a ridiculous stat and again it goes back to this idea is they're surging demand here i mean there's clear and obvious surging demand it didn't just do it in a fraction of the time or you know half the time no i mean we're talking just age just
16:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Record setting level where it took this thing slightly over a year and you look at what second place is 2,000 days On third place is almost a year after that then you got 3,000 plus days for a lot of these ETFs to get to this kind of point and Bitcoin did it in Just over a year about a year and a half which is a crazy metric to hit and you can see it on these charts So again, I think that this just goes back to this idea that
17:17
[SPEAKER_00]: The demand is clearly there for Bitcoin.
17:20
[SPEAKER_00]: And I don't see that going away.
17:22
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think it's slowing down.
17:24
[SPEAKER_00]: You look at this adoption curve.
17:26
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that it'll follow the same level of adoption that all those other ones do.
17:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Where you see, yeah, they have kind of their peaks in their valleys over time, right?
17:33
[SPEAKER_00]: You see it on all of these, but what happens?
17:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, they resumed to the upside afterwards, and I think Bitcoin in the IBDTF, why would it differ from the rest of these, right?
17:44
[SPEAKER_00]: They have continued to go on for 2003,000 plus days, 4,000 days, and they've all appreciated higher to the right.
17:51
[SPEAKER_00]: So, although Bitcoin was the fastest one to do it, why should its performance be any different than any of these other ETFs that have ran the same path?
18:00
[SPEAKER_00]: My kind of prediction here is that for the next two to 3,000 days, it should continue to follow this.
18:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, there's going to be periods.
18:07
[SPEAKER_00]: You look at any of these charts.
18:08
[SPEAKER_00]: They go up, they go down.
18:09
[SPEAKER_00]: They go up, they go down.
18:10
[SPEAKER_00]: But they resume higher over the long-term.
18:14
[SPEAKER_00]: And I don't really see a scenario where Bitcoin and its ETFs don't follow that same path.
18:19
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and then in 12 months, just to add on to that, I mean, I bet has become the most profitable, most profitable ETF in their lineup here.
18:27
[SPEAKER_01]: So if we're bringing up this little graph, and I graph, but just chart here, we have the, I should, I bit up there with 244 million in rev.
18:37
[SPEAKER_01]: And then under that's the Russell, you know, just S&P 500 and I think part of it is is, you know, assets under management as you can see Bitcoin's not necessarily as high as the Russell is or the S&P 500, but it's kind of based around the fees, right?
18:53
[SPEAKER_01]: And we did a video on our YouTube if there's somebody new here that's interested in understanding like what Bitcoin ETF you want to, you want to buy maybe if that's the way you want to go.
19:02
[SPEAKER_01]: Brendan had an awesome video about that.
19:03
[SPEAKER_01]: Explain the fees.
19:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously black rocks fees are a little bit higher, but they're also, you know, the institution that's probably one of the most trusted in the biggest.
19:11
[SPEAKER_01]: And so kind of the thesis outside of all the technicals and the fundamentals is just kind of the storyline of being the most profitable product.
19:21
[SPEAKER_01]: is something that you want to continue to sell.
19:23
[SPEAKER_01]: And so I've kind of given this thesis off.
19:25
[SPEAKER_01]: You cannot even believe in Bitcoin.
19:27
[SPEAKER_01]: You can think it's something that is not something that you believe in the fundamentals, the use case, and all that stuff.
19:35
[SPEAKER_01]: This is just something that's going to be sold.
19:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Like if you're in BlackRock now,
19:40
[SPEAKER_01]: you're saying, okay, all these, you know, 87, 60, 50 year old boomers that have all the retirement money for years, they've been told, you know, Bitcoin, no, it's a scam, it's scary, you're not investing, you're not investing, like Larry, we've played the clips of the Larry think over the years of him saying that.
19:55
[SPEAKER_01]: And then now Larry think is parading around doing the media circuit, it's talking about, well, no, no, actually Bitcoin is a great innovation and now that, you know, BlackRock has the rails to do it properly.
20:05
[SPEAKER_01]: we're going to you know suggest that you put one two percent into our Bitcoin ETF as a part of your portfolio and you're like your head scratch and like well wait didn't you say three years ago there was for criminals and it's it's a scam it's like no no no well now we solved that with the black rock ETF come on come on now we have one so come to us
20:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Right, and it's just, it's the, it's the, the soldier's march of salespeople that this is how they make their living.
20:29
[SPEAKER_01]: They could not even believe in Bitcoin, one Iota, but they're going to go try and sell that because it has the highest, you know, revenue that, that, that's money in everybody's pockets.
20:39
[SPEAKER_01]: And so there's a greed factor to this thing too, plus the phomo, plus the use case, like it really is one of those things that's like, I don't know, man, it kind of seems,
20:49
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, it's not, it's never personal financial advice here.
20:51
[SPEAKER_01]: We're just a couple of friends talking crypto, but like it just kind of seems like a no brainer for the longer term view.
20:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it does, and like I said, I think it's gonna continue on this path upwards, and so for nothing's really slowing it down too much.
21:06
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and then I'll bring up, I have a video I want to play, and it's kind of around the same process of, you know,
21:13
[SPEAKER_01]: The older generation believes in gold and gold is crushing, right?
21:16
[SPEAKER_01]: You've said on the charts, gold continues to make new all-time highs.
21:20
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's where the older generation tends to go in these times of inflation or dollar to basement, it's like we go to gold, we go to gold, and it's purely performing.
21:29
[SPEAKER_01]: But again, if you zoom out and you do that 10, whatever you're comparison, you want to do against gold, Bitcoin is the better performer.
21:40
[SPEAKER_01]: offerings of black rock and the comparison of Bitcoin versus gold.
21:44
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a conversation that's starting to creep into that main stream finance media before it was Bitcoin was just this again, it's a scam.
21:51
[SPEAKER_01]: Stay away from it.
21:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Not now.
21:53
[SPEAKER_01]: There were having segments on it comparing Bitcoin to gold.
21:56
[SPEAKER_01]: So let's watch this.
21:57
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a two minute clip.
21:58
[SPEAKER_01]: I'll probably play about a minute.
22:00
[SPEAKER_01]: So let's let's check it out and then we can digest it.
22:04
[SPEAKER_03]: action here, because we are seeing that similar kind of consolidation break out, consolidation break out.
22:09
[SPEAKER_03]: But we got some kind of auditing patterns of developing each time the consolidation map.
22:13
[SPEAKER_02]: That's right.
22:14
[SPEAKER_02]: So as we can tell here, it's a very clear bullish pattern.
22:17
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, the only difference between this one so far, in the previous two, we haven't got a full extension yet.
22:22
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, it's very important point here, is that with the timing of when these breakouts occur.
22:28
[SPEAKER_02]: which are at the very beginning stages of the fourth quarter, it doesn't 23, doesn't 24, so every hour, again, right now.
22:35
[SPEAKER_02]: That's because there's been positive seasonality for Bitcoin over its history, over the last 10 years of nine in the fourth quarter.
22:41
[SPEAKER_02]: In fact, with quarter, it's virtually October.
22:43
[SPEAKER_02]: This is how we are now.
22:44
[SPEAKER_02]: We know Bitcoin's already up a good amount, so I think this has a ability to eventually think the advantage of this in which higher.
22:50
[SPEAKER_03]: Okay, so that's the regular,
22:53
[SPEAKER_03]: the world versus the digital cold trade.
22:55
[SPEAKER_03]: Let's clear this and let's put the comparative up because the relative price movement can tell us something about maybe future performance as well.
23:02
[SPEAKER_03]: No guarantees, of course, right?
23:04
[SPEAKER_03]: And this flame is always there.
23:05
[SPEAKER_03]: But what did the pattern show you?
23:06
[SPEAKER_03]: This is the course of the past kind of year or so.
23:09
[SPEAKER_03]: What are you seeing here?
23:10
[SPEAKER_02]: That's right.
23:10
[SPEAKER_02]: As we can tell, coming in the month, it was a pretty big performance gap almost 20%.
23:15
[SPEAKER_02]: So there is the tendency to have this close.
23:18
[SPEAKER_02]: Now, we've seen this before as well, where start off,
23:21
[SPEAKER_02]: very similar than as old, stop.
23:24
[SPEAKER_02]: This is when Bitcoin started to rally again, and of course, by the time you got to the summer months, those percentages were now the same.
23:32
[SPEAKER_02]: Again, which I think has a pretty good chance of happening.
23:35
[SPEAKER_02]: Once more, that could even, you know, again, old, moving the sideways or lower, the Bitcoin between the fire and I think, just get that into the fourth quarter into the end of the year.
23:44
[SPEAKER_01]: So there it is.
23:45
[SPEAKER_01]: And those are the conversations that are happening on, you know, mainstream business news television that everybody's seeing.
23:51
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, it's, it's really elevating the conversation of Bitcoin into that normal financial system, which we've been covering now for the, you know, two, three, you know, we've been doing this forever, but it was always we were the black sheep, right?
24:02
[SPEAKER_01]: The crypto was always the black sheep.
24:04
[SPEAKER_01]: And now it's just, we always like to think of ourselves as the outsiders, because it's a fun way to think the underdog kind of
24:14
[SPEAKER_00]: And so stuff like that just even just even the conversation of I think is important to note Plus just the interesting arbitrage of that chart between gold and Bitcoin Yeah, it is man and it's funny because that chart on BTC that they showed looked awfully familiar to a chart to a chart That we've talked about let me just flash this up on the screen every Everyone's at the you all can see this as well and it's they were talking about this behind
24:42
[SPEAKER_00]: You know Bitcoin moves up and then has these bullish consolidations and then it moves up and has these bullish consolidations and then moves up And it sounds like man, this looks awfully familiar to a chart that we've shown here on the program and that we've been trying to tell everyone about where we have these sharp moves up Consolidation sharp move up consolidation sharp move up consolidation and they all look so identical This is on a weekly chart.
25:05
[SPEAKER_00]: They look even more similar on a on a daily chart
25:08
[SPEAKER_00]: But it is kind of the same idea where, you know, the first kind of point that we had the pivot, you know, Bitcoin was able to move up over here over 100% to the upside.
25:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Then you look at it from its next pivot.
25:17
[SPEAKER_00]: It was able to do about 200%.
25:19
[SPEAKER_00]: You look at it to the next pivot, over 100%.
25:22
[SPEAKER_00]: You look at it this time around.
25:23
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, it just has not seen a full extension from its kind of bottom or even its prior highs.
25:29
[SPEAKER_00]: It really hasn't moved that significantly to the upside yet.
25:31
[SPEAKER_00]: And so I agree with what they were saying
25:36
[SPEAKER_00]: the full extension of this move just clearly hasn't happened yet.
25:39
[SPEAKER_00]: If you look at it and you compare it to any move that we've had inside of this macro cycle since 2022, this would say that the overall move is not finished.
25:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Now that's not like some sort of a mutable fact that can't be changed in it has to be that way.
25:56
[SPEAKER_00]: That's not necessarily what we're saying here, but what we are saying is that the data points and that's all that we can look at.
26:02
[SPEAKER_00]: There's no
26:05
[SPEAKER_00]: With some 100% hit rate, but we can look back and say historically speaking using all the data in front of us There's just no data saying that that that we've peaked in fact all the data is saying there should be more to come and That's kind of where I'm where I'm standing
26:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I think being you were on the same page there, and I follow All my all my leadings all the technical charts from you, and it's always fun to see again kind of the similarities around when there's consensus view again I always like to say you don't want to be on the same side of the boat is everybody But that's kind of what leads to what we said when we started this show like hey, there's all the excitement over the weekend all time highs Then everybody all gets levered up with the longs and they start taking out leverage and that needs to get cleaned out of the system
26:50
[SPEAKER_01]: because that's just how the market makers work.
26:53
[SPEAKER_01]: They kind of work both ways and then we'll go away higher.
26:55
[SPEAKER_01]: But you know, you've been spot on it, especially with all your technical analysis.
26:59
[SPEAKER_01]: And again, just a friendly reminder, if you are interested in joining Brendan's group for the six week micro-born trading course where you get that type of technical analysis, you know, twice a week live with Brendan for an hour plus the course.
27:10
[SPEAKER_01]: Check the link below.
27:11
[SPEAKER_01]: I put it in the description for you.
27:12
[SPEAKER_01]: I know the cohort is underway.
27:15
[SPEAKER_01]: But you can sign up to get notified when it opens back up to do next week.
27:20
[SPEAKER_00]: We're opening up next week.
27:21
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to open it up on Believe Wednesday Super exciting super exciting.
27:29
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, I mean, it's again, it's just one of those times where the markets are flying We need more technical analysis and you know Brendan's got to do it so check out that link below
27:37
[SPEAKER_01]: Also checking out the chat.
27:38
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, we didn't really, we didn't have a time to promote it to the crypto nation community today.
27:44
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's just our YouTube community, but active chat boys and and girls.
27:48
[SPEAKER_01]: We got Deborah there, Deborah fits Ryan, Josh Clark, Noah Blue, Baylor Bear, grants in the chat.
27:56
[SPEAKER_01]: Just having a ball on a Tuesday and last minute, Tuesday.
28:00
[SPEAKER_01]: We didn't promote this.
28:01
[SPEAKER_01]: We appreciate everybody joining.
28:02
[SPEAKER_01]: And if you give us a thumbs up, it really helps us grow the show.
28:05
[SPEAKER_01]: And then if there's anybody here that's new definitely subscribe.
28:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Who is the famous bear that we had like a year or so ago and he'd come in here.
28:13
[SPEAKER_00]: You remember it was something bear I thought.
28:16
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think it's bear or bear.
28:17
[SPEAKER_01]: No, bear or bear.
28:18
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't remember that.
28:19
[SPEAKER_01]: No.
28:20
[SPEAKER_00]: We had a famous guy and he'd always come in here and he'd be bearish.
28:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Man, we used to even shout out to it.
28:26
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, oh, Baylor, his name wasn't Bayer.
28:29
[SPEAKER_01]: It was something, but he was just, he was an all-time crypto bear.
28:32
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
28:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
28:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
28:36
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it was like inverted investing or something.
28:39
[SPEAKER_01]: He seemed to have disappeared.
28:41
[SPEAKER_01]: He always used to make, he would call Salve.
28:44
[SPEAKER_01]: And there was a big dip.
28:45
[SPEAKER_01]: He was dancing on our graves in March during the tariff dip.
28:49
[SPEAKER_01]: And then we stayed strong.
28:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Both on the program and off the program and our own little DJ and chat together doing some doing some options trading I know and then yeah then this rip higher he seemed to have disappeared so
29:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Shout out to him for keeping, at least keeping his honest.
29:06
[SPEAKER_01]: Hey.
29:07
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it's funny.
29:08
[SPEAKER_00]: I've seen a couple of people like that.
29:10
[SPEAKER_00]: And I have like a little group chat with some of my friends.
29:13
[SPEAKER_00]: And there's this one guy in there who's like Permaver.
29:16
[SPEAKER_00]: And he's been saying it's gonna crash.
29:17
[SPEAKER_00]: It's gonna crash.
29:18
[SPEAKER_00]: And like we've just put in pushing higher and higher.
29:20
[SPEAKER_00]: And we, this one guy, like no one's heard from him in like a month or two now.
29:26
[SPEAKER_00]: And...
29:27
[SPEAKER_00]: for the past couple of months and it's just like all these bears man are getting just liquidated and wracked and people have been trying to short and short and short ever since the tariff thing and they had a good two to three months stretch towards the start of this year around springtime but ever since then there's just been no opportunity for it and again I have a hard time seeing the bearish view in the big picture and there's going to be these short
29:53
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know, I'd hate to be a bear.
29:54
[SPEAKER_00]: You just said Baylor Bear and I know that's not the same person, but it just got me thinking that we've had a couple of people like that who come on and every time we'd fall, they'd come back to the YouTube chat and be like, here it's in your face, I'm gonna shove it here and they go real quiet.
30:08
[SPEAKER_00]: once we hit new all-time highs.
30:10
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, he was he was kind of calling you out a lot wasn't he?
30:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, the bears the bears are the bears are in distress.
30:16
[SPEAKER_01]: They're they're saying their prayers prayers for the bears is kind of what I always say on the on the time line.
30:23
[SPEAKER_01]: I think one of the last things.
30:24
[SPEAKER_01]: When the bears go to sleep and they just start dreaming, I think this is kind of, let me share it.
30:29
[SPEAKER_01]: I think this is what they see in their dreams and they just know that they're quite in trouble here.
30:34
[SPEAKER_01]: It's the Jerome Palin jeans meme.
30:36
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's just the bears are trying.
30:39
[SPEAKER_01]: They want to short the market, but there's just too much, too much liquidity going in.
30:43
[SPEAKER_01]: But let's see where we go in here with ETF deadlines.
30:46
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think before we dive into that specifically, we want to do mention that it's not really anything that we want to break down too crazy until it gets to the point where it's main stream financial news, but the government is shut down right now.
31:00
[SPEAKER_01]: And, you know, for whatever reason, and it will be solved eventually is how, you know, history shows that, and history also shows that the markets look through this, and we're in the first week of it, but it isn't, it isn't interesting to note that a couple things will not be happening around the data, jobs, numbers, and inflation data, all that stuff that's not, that's,
31:20
[SPEAKER_01]: not private.
31:21
[SPEAKER_01]: So if it's public sector data from the government, that's all not going to happen.
31:24
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's interesting that we're leading into a fed decision while the government shut down.
31:28
[SPEAKER_01]: I think from the odds and from pals talk, you know, 25 dips isn't that crazy.
31:33
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's kind of what the market's looking at again.
31:35
[SPEAKER_01]: But it is interesting to kind of be flying blind during this time, not getting the data.
31:39
[SPEAKER_01]: And then that also could affect some of the ETF filings as well, Brendan.
31:43
[SPEAKER_01]: But I know it's something that you want to talk about for the spot ETF filings,
31:49
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a movement there.
31:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, exactly, that's been like one of the big questions that I've seen on the timeline, which is, you guys why haven't we gotten these ETF approvals yet?
32:01
[SPEAKER_00]: And how is that going to be affected by all of this?
32:04
[SPEAKER_00]: Because, I believe last week we talked about how these ETFs essentially got pushed to a 100% chance of approval from the Bloomberg Intelligence Analysts.
32:14
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, specifically, they were talking about Bitcoin, like Coin Solana and XRP.
32:20
[SPEAKER_00]: As we have on the screen here, the Litecoin deadline was the second, the Solana deadline is the tenth, and the XRP deadline is the 17th.
32:29
[SPEAKER_00]: So these are all about a week apart from each other.
32:31
[SPEAKER_00]: And the reason for this, why we haven't seen this and why we can actually see all of these pushed back,
32:37
[SPEAKER_00]: is because of the government being shut down.
32:41
[SPEAKER_00]: So the SEC is supposed to approve this.
32:44
[SPEAKER_00]: The government shut down that includes the SEC.
32:47
[SPEAKER_00]: And so these things are at a standstill until the government reopens.
32:52
[SPEAKER_00]: So even though it says, hey, the final deadline is here, the government's closed, right?
32:57
[SPEAKER_00]: Even if they wanted to deny them, they couldn't do that.
32:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Even if they wanted to approve them, they couldn't do that.
33:01
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, literally nothing can happen.
33:02
[SPEAKER_00]: It's like saying that someone should do their job,
33:06
[SPEAKER_00]: They're not at work, right, that they just simply are not going to be there to be able to do anything, good or bad.
33:11
[SPEAKER_00]: So just because we haven't gotten these yet, it is not a bad thing.
33:16
[SPEAKER_00]: And that's kind of the big message that I want everyone to understand here.
33:20
[SPEAKER_00]: The second part of this is that these can probably get pushed back a little bit.
33:24
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not sure of all the nuances and rules and regulations about
33:27
[SPEAKER_00]: how this works and how a government shutdown affects final deadlines and stuff.
33:32
[SPEAKER_00]: But I would imagine that this kind of pushes everything back, at least a little bit for the duration of the shutdown.
33:37
[SPEAKER_00]: So will we get these by these deadlines?
33:40
[SPEAKER_00]: I sure hope so.
33:41
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think it's a matter of whether we're going to get them or not.
33:45
[SPEAKER_00]: I just think that this affects the timeline of when we get them if that makes sense.
33:49
[SPEAKER_00]: So it's not a matter of, are we going to get these?
33:52
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a matter of when are we going to get these?
33:54
[SPEAKER_00]: And this whole government shutdown essentially pushes them back a little bit.
33:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, don't freak out too much.
33:59
[SPEAKER_00]: I still see these as coming and, you know, they're still in the horizon here.
34:04
[SPEAKER_00]: So as soon as things get back up, and I'm sure all the, like, super, super important things with SEC are going to get handled first, anything that's immediately pressing, and then in the words of, uh, Paul Atkins, crypto is his top priority, as he said about what he can go.
34:21
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that he's going to come right around to these after all of the highest priority things are done.
34:26
[SPEAKER_00]: I think crypto is going to be next on his radar and we should get these ETF approvals.
34:31
[SPEAKER_01]: I agree I agree and I think that while the public sector the public sector of the government is shut down the private sector continues to march forward something that was just announced today and let's give credit to somebody I yeah bailer bear of course forces bailer bear bailer bear was like did you guys talk about it yet not yet it just happened today Brendan
34:55
[SPEAKER_01]: a couple hours ago, it was the S&P Global announced its new crypto index, the S&P 500 digital markets 50 index and partnership with Denari Global, important to note Denari is also tokenizing the index so it can be traded on chain of course and it seems like again this just came out so I haven't had a chance to deep dive in and either is Brendan but it seems like it's a digital market's 50 index so it would be like the top 50 crypto's or we don't know exactly how this would be
35:22
[SPEAKER_01]: Decided but the index is designed to track a wide range of companies and digital assets connected to the crypto ecosystem So does that include bitmind?
35:30
[SPEAKER_01]: Is that include microstrategy does it conclude Solana spot?
35:34
[SPEAKER_01]: We don't quite know that we'll get the details for you, but just something exciting again The SP 500 just you know rolling with the punches and continuing to to give out kind of bullish sentiment around
35:45
[SPEAKER_01]: getting stuff on chain unlocking liquidity and providing you know funds to get access to this these companies and technology.
35:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, exactly.
35:54
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll look into this a little bit more like Cuba said this is like hot off the press.
35:59
[SPEAKER_00]: So there's not a ton of information yet, but we'll have to do some more digging and get back to you with a lot of the details.
36:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, but something that we can dive into the details on again, institutions, that's the title this episode.
36:10
[SPEAKER_01]: I named it for this reason, institutions are diving in.
36:13
[SPEAKER_01]: We've talked about in the last couple weeks how Vanguard has went from its no Bitcoin stance to now starting to move towards not just Bitcoin ETFs, but also just offering crypto in general.
36:23
[SPEAKER_01]: They know that if they don't take action, they're going to get left behind in the dust.
36:26
[SPEAKER_01]: And then friends of the program Morgan Stanley has entered the group chat folks, new special report from Morgan Stanley saying that we aim to support our financial advisors and clients who may flexibly to allocate to cryptocurrency as a part of their multi-asset portfolios.
36:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, just like we covered at the top of the show with the Bitcoin ETF and the revenue that they're making from this ETF.
36:50
[SPEAKER_01]: Larry thinks led the way.
36:51
[SPEAKER_01]: I think gray scale paved the way.
36:53
[SPEAKER_01]: XRP paved the way for these lawsuits and getting stuff passed and helping get the ETFs launched.
36:57
[SPEAKER_01]: We've talked about outsmart of the way.
36:59
[SPEAKER_01]: Larry think was let them let the let their lawyers pay for that.
37:03
[SPEAKER_01]: And then and then black rock is just busted through the door and showcased how this I bit in record timing has become, you know, one of the most profitable ETFs in the entire
37:12
[SPEAKER_01]: financial space and everybody's taking notice van guards how many on board here comes Morgan Stanley They have over 16,000 advisors managing two trillion dollars in savings and wealth for clients Again, here's a hunter from Bitwise just saying hey, we're entering the mainstream area and like we said this moves at a glacial pace It's slow, but it's slow and it's leaking and then it's one of those things where you know You're waiting for this breakout.
37:37
[SPEAKER_01]: We're waiting for this breakout, but you might look back, you know
37:39
[SPEAKER_00]: day to day and month the month you're not getting the action you want but then two or three years really might look in the rear view mirror and be like oh man wow that was quick yeah i mean exactly and it's crazy just how bullish these asset managers are getting on the crypto space i mean exposures going to become normal there's going to eventually be you know
38:03
[SPEAKER_00]: There are years, trillions of dollars in this, but I think we could even see the ETFs push up to the trillion dollar mark.
38:10
[SPEAKER_00]: And with how much custody that all these different asset managers have.
38:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, in the ETFs alone, I wouldn't be shocked if those get a trillion dollar evaluation in the future.
38:19
[SPEAKER_00]: And yeah, I mean, look at this.
38:21
[SPEAKER_00]: Just like them talking about their different allocation, strategies, and what they're recommending.
38:27
[SPEAKER_00]: I've set up a foreign, I'll say it again.
38:28
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that this will be a normal thing.
38:30
[SPEAKER_00]: People look at it right now.
38:32
[SPEAKER_00]: And they're saying, oh, it's risky in this and that, it's no longer risky.
38:36
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, you have some of the largest asset managers, not some.
38:40
[SPEAKER_00]: You have almost all of the largest asset managers on earth saying you should have exposure.
38:46
[SPEAKER_00]: And the funny thing about it, Tivo, is that there's always going to be that one uncle like character who's going to be like, no, you know what?
38:54
[SPEAKER_00]: I know better.
38:55
[SPEAKER_00]: It's too risky.
38:57
[SPEAKER_00]: listen to me don't get exposure and the same people have been saying this for over a decade now and it's funny because I was listening again got a throw I think we have actually have Tom Lee ironically on the calendar for some other point later but I was listening to him talk about this and he said hey we first talked about this eight years ago and we talked about getting Bitcoin and ethics exposure at something like it was something like 2% of your portfolio
39:23
[SPEAKER_00]: And he said, now, what that would do is represent something close to like 70 or 80% of your portfolio.
39:28
[SPEAKER_00]: If you had just gotten around 2% exposure back then, and it's crazy.
39:33
[SPEAKER_00]: Because even in the current day, even after kind of seeing that performance, and usually people say, you know, like performance is kind of the ultimate guide,
39:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Over time even after this there's still these one-off characters that are gonna look at the largest asset managers on the planet And they're still gonna say, you know what I think I know better I know that they're saying on this chart, you know 1% 2% 3% maybe even on this high is 4% Crypto allocation there's still gonna be people who disagree with that which to me is ludicrous
40:04
[SPEAKER_00]: And I can't really wrap my head around it.
40:06
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that the risk of not having crypto in your portfolio is higher than the risk of having it in your portfolio, right?
40:14
[SPEAKER_00]: Because there is the opportunity here to have so much potential upside.
40:19
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, maybe it won't go from 2% to 80% of your portfolio, like Bitcoin or ETH could have done over the last eight or so years.
40:25
[SPEAKER_00]: But there's still, again, I think the risk of not having it is so much far greater than, then,
40:31
[SPEAKER_00]: missing an opportunity like this one.
40:33
[SPEAKER_00]: And so in the same way that you go and you diversify and you invest in tech and you invest in metals and bonds and equities and indices and all these other things.
40:42
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, this is just my own personal opinion.
40:44
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not financial advice by any means, but I just think the risk here of not including it just for out way the other side.
40:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and it's all about perspective.
40:56
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, you can see here at the bottom here, the recommendations for maximum crypto allocation, wealth conservation, zero percent.
41:02
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I think that can be debated, obviously with some of the fundamentals and the beliefs around Bitcoin is for the conservation of your capital, against the tiering dollar.
41:13
[SPEAKER_01]: But at the same time, there's so many financial products around there that if you're, have hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars or billions of dollars, there's so many ways
41:24
[SPEAKER_01]: That again, you'll you'll be fine.
41:26
[SPEAKER_01]: If you don't have Bitcoin, I think it's more interesting to go to the three.
41:29
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, income to zero That could be debated.
41:32
[SPEAKER_01]: I guess with staking, but let's just jump to the three foreign five balance growth.
41:37
[SPEAKER_01]: 2% market growth 3% Opportunistic growth 4% I mean bread a year ago or you're I guess a little bit more than a year ago now But when these ETS first came out we were just talking about got imagine if these
41:49
[SPEAKER_01]: If these institutions start recommending 1% just into Bitcoin and now this is again Let's go to this other page guys who wrote this Morgan Stanley.
42:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, we all know Morgan Stanley But it's Steve Edwards, Dan, I don't want to butcher that in Danny Spencer Cavallo
42:07
[SPEAKER_01]: CFA everybody see that CFA CFA that's a certified financial advisor that's who these again to go back to this point fifty sixty seventy years that's that's through they go to to talk about what to do with their money certified financial advisors which again we are not certified financial advisors that's why this isn't personal financial advice but
42:25
[SPEAKER_01]: that's what the people who are giving personal financial advice are sending them their documents and then of course they're building products around it to get the revenue fees from it but we're not talking about one percent anymore we're talking about two three four percent.
42:39
[SPEAKER_01]: I've seen up to five and ten and we talked about you know one of the famous investors recommended what was it like twenty percent in crypto.
42:46
[SPEAKER_01]: So you know how many how many people do you know in your life that when you try to talk crypto with them still look at you like you're crazy.
42:53
[SPEAKER_01]: they're on zero percent and eventually with all these products they're going to get to that one two percent and they're not even going to know it in my opinion like a I think the majority of people kind of like we've talked about crypto is how is crypto going to grow what you need to be able to use crypto rails without you even realizing it is something that we used to say when we're talking about individual all points and how they're going to be used and
43:14
[SPEAKER_01]: in daily life.
43:15
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's kind of what's happening here with the investment side of it.
43:18
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of people are going to start to be getting to 1% or definitely off zero up to 1, 2, 3% and they're not going to really know it.
43:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, I would completely agree, man.
43:29
[SPEAKER_00]: And the crazy thing is, we still have a long ways to go, right?
43:33
[SPEAKER_00]: Does everyone in the world already have 1% 2% 3% per cent, per cent exposure?
43:37
[SPEAKER_00]: No, obviously not.
43:39
[SPEAKER_00]: And so we have a long ways to go and it just kind of feeds into this long term argument.
43:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, the Bolzer here and then, you know, we've talked, we've really talked about, you know, Bitcoin, Ethereum, a lot, and we've been covering It's a lot on and all the other all coins, but Solana had a great weekend and as we wait for these ETFs to get approved, there's other products that are available on exchanges that we don't really talk about Because again, there's some, it's not necessarily a spot, you know, investment.
44:08
[SPEAKER_01]: So it's kind of tricky to figure out to know what you're buying and where big proponents you have to know what you're buying
44:13
[SPEAKER_01]: but there's a lot of ETPs, extremes traded products that are trying to mirror the performance of soul.
44:19
[SPEAKER_01]: And obviously with the big momentum for the soul ETFs, there's people that are going to be front running that.
44:25
[SPEAKER_01]: I remember there was the gray skills a while ago, Brendan.
44:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Do you remember when gray scale?
44:30
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it was right after FTX, there was like an arbitrage opportunity where
44:38
[SPEAKER_01]: uh... it was it was at a huge yes he was awarded it is like fifty percent almost but at the price called it and i remember i sprinkled on it and then it ended up being a good bet uh... because that the naff came back up
44:53
[SPEAKER_01]: But it's just something that you got to know what you're buying.
44:56
[SPEAKER_01]: So don't run out and buy these things if you're not doing the research.
44:59
[SPEAKER_01]: But the ETPs for Seoul had just crazy, crazy inflow.
45:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Look at that.
45:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Hockey, we do hockey sticks sometimes on these graphs.
45:08
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't even, that's five hockey sticks.
45:10
[SPEAKER_01]: That's unbelievable.
45:12
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, people are getting pulled up for, for just crypto in general, but it's definitely seems like Solana is the next, everybody's trying to play this Solana ETF play.
45:21
[SPEAKER_01]: So, can you give the people a little background on ETPs and specifically what you're seeing here with the net inflows?
45:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, well, first of all, I think you're right.
45:30
[SPEAKER_00]: I think people are betting that Solana and potentially XRP are gonna be like the next big ones to make plays here.
45:35
[SPEAKER_00]: And this chart shows, obviously, people are trying to front-run it.
45:39
[SPEAKER_00]: So the big question that we've gotten is, what's the difference between an ETF and an ATP?
45:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, an ETF and an ATP are slightly different, right?
45:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Specifically, when we talk about a spot ETF,
45:52
[SPEAKER_00]: So these ATPs are exchange traded products as opposed to ETFs, which are exchange traded funds.
45:59
[SPEAKER_00]: And in a spot ETF, it is actually buying and selling the underlying asset.
46:05
[SPEAKER_00]: So if someone comes in with $10,000 in the purchase I bit for the BlackRock ETF, BlackRock is actually going and buying $10,000.
46:12
[SPEAKER_00]: So Bitcoin at that price.
46:15
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's what the word spot means, is that they're actually buying the underlying product
46:21
[SPEAKER_00]: with the money that you're providing them.
46:23
[SPEAKER_00]: And so you're getting literal Bitcoin exposure.
46:26
[SPEAKER_00]: The ETPs are a little bit different, where these are meant to mimic price action, but they're not actual direct exposure.
46:33
[SPEAKER_00]: So these can vary in a bunch of different ways, whether people are using futures contract strategies, and option strategies, and different algorithms to kind of balance these things out.
46:42
[SPEAKER_00]: But they're not actually going and doing a one for one by and sell for everyone's order that's being transacted.
46:48
[SPEAKER_00]: So again, the ETPs are meant to reflect price action and mimic it.
46:53
[SPEAKER_00]: But the spot ETFs are actually buying and selling the underlying asset and actually doing real price action.
47:02
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's the difference here between the two.
47:05
[SPEAKER_00]: And I mean, like you said, people are trying to front run this thing.
47:07
[SPEAKER_00]: They're trying to get exposure.
47:09
[SPEAKER_00]: And it's interesting that we already have like salana options that are available on the stock market.
47:22
[SPEAKER_00]: products already built in for like shares but they can't trade spot and that's never made sense to me about why people can go and they can buy like a two or three X ETF of Solana but they can't buy spots Solana and they're like well spots Solana seems a little bit too risky but if you want to get levered exposure to it by all means and those things are live on the on the stock exchange already I can't wrap my head around it and that's the one question I've gotten several times
47:52
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, probably because there's a custody issue and they're worried about custody, that could be the only thing that comes to my mind because, again, with the spot ETF, you actually have to worry about custody and with these ETPs, they don't actually hold any crypto that just meant to mimic the price action.
48:07
[SPEAKER_00]: So, maybe that's the only reason here, but it still is funny.
48:11
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it's so comical to me that you can have these 2 and 3x altcoin ETFs, but not a spot one there.
48:17
[SPEAKER_00]: And so, they're common.
48:22
[SPEAKER_01]: you know they'll be moving yeah bullish sentiment and then again it's not just whatever ETFs are coming down the pipeline it's these you know basket products that that are going to really you know take flight as well once once they all start getting offered um and i think um tomorrow we're actually well it'll come out next week um or the week after i haven't gotten the exact date yet but we're having a panteric
48:49
[SPEAKER_01]: Cosmo Jeng joining us tomorrow.
48:51
[SPEAKER_01]: That's gonna be a really good one.
48:52
[SPEAKER_01]: I saw he was on CNBC.
48:53
[SPEAKER_01]: He did a live TV hit yesterday I didn't even know I just had it on the background.
48:57
[SPEAKER_01]: I heard his name.
48:58
[SPEAKER_01]: I was like, oh man He's coming on the podcast this week and and I think he's a he's obviously a big crypto-born general But I think he's a big big salonable so we'll have some good salonicon recession with a Pantera capitals Cosmo
49:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Jang and we're going to put that out in the coming weeks of something to look forward to As we move on just a couple notes to finish here guys you got to stay vigilant.
49:22
[SPEAKER_01]: You got to stay smart
49:24
[SPEAKER_01]: don't be like Germany.
49:26
[SPEAKER_01]: Don't do this to yourself guys.
49:27
[SPEAKER_01]: The German government's decision to sell 50,000 Bitcoin at 54k has cost them now 3.57 billion dollars in miss profits.
49:36
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, we're not in the German government Brendan and I. We don't know what they did with the money, but we can basically guarantee you that the money that they got did not turn into a 3.57 billion dollars.
49:48
[SPEAKER_01]: So yeah, huge swing and a miss there from from Germany.
49:53
[SPEAKER_01]: We're waiting for the U.S.
49:54
[SPEAKER_01]: I saw it since the alumus actually tweeted.
49:57
[SPEAKER_01]: She's always teasing that the strategic Bitcoin reserve for the U.S.
50:01
[SPEAKER_01]: is going to buy some more.
50:02
[SPEAKER_01]: She tweets at all the time.
50:04
[SPEAKER_01]: She's smart on Twitter.
50:05
[SPEAKER_01]: She knows how to get engagement.
50:06
[SPEAKER_01]: But that was my hot take for the end of the year that I think we'll see some traction on that hopefully.
50:11
[SPEAKER_01]: But that would be really exciting.
50:13
[SPEAKER_01]: But the most exciting thing Brendan would be to
50:20
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll see.
50:21
[SPEAKER_00]: I just, here's my thing.
50:23
[SPEAKER_00]: I think if you're silly enough to sell down there to sell the 50,000 bit coin at $50,000, I just feel like you're not going to be, I don't know.
50:35
[SPEAKER_00]: I just don't see them being able to play this well, so it's either, I feel like they don't buy any at all and they left, they get left behind or maybe they buy the peak and it just,
50:44
[SPEAKER_00]: isn't smart.
50:45
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.
50:45
[SPEAKER_00]: The thing about governments, though, is that they're always going to be accumulating a little bit of crypto, just like they do with cash and a lot of other assets through just criminal activity.
50:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.
50:56
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, when these governments confiscate things for criminal purposes, you know, they confiscate drugs, they confiscate cash, they get fiat.
51:03
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm sure that they get like yachts and houses and.
51:07
[SPEAKER_00]: cars and, again, cryptos included into that.
51:10
[SPEAKER_00]: So, the thing is, you know, over time, they should accumulate more crypto.
51:15
[SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, kind of along those lines that has me thinking, what you were saying about Cynthia Limis,
51:22
[SPEAKER_00]: I think most people would be happy with a Bitcoin reserve that just takes all confiscated and illegal Bitcoin acquisitions and it just puts that into the reserve.
51:33
[SPEAKER_00]: So, you know, that's not necessarily the government going out of their way and buying it with taxpayer money.
51:38
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think even just people acknowledging the fact that, hey, any future Bitcoin that is acquired.
51:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Which I guess that is kind of already included because they already said they're not going to be selling any more Bitcoin.
51:49
[SPEAKER_00]: So that would kind of infer that any Bitcoin or crypto that we get from
51:55
[SPEAKER_00]: illegal acquisitions would have to go into the reserve.
51:58
[SPEAKER_00]: So kind of already has a built in mechanism that like we can acquire Bitcoin, but it can't really go anywhere.
52:04
[SPEAKER_00]: Try it.
52:04
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
52:05
[SPEAKER_01]: We just want to see our first first budget neutral purchase, whatever that whatever that means, however they dice that up, that'll be something that we're obviously tracking and it'll be fun to see.
52:15
[SPEAKER_01]: But to wrap up the show today, you know, we do talk about
52:20
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, I didn't think it was possible to like him anymore, but then I saw this clip and it just speaks for itself.
52:25
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a great piece of of comedy just showing how base Thomas and how in tune he is, how long he's been around a part of crypto, uh, just hilarious stuff from Tom Lee from Token, 2049 in Singapore.
52:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's take a listen here.
52:39
[SPEAKER_05]: I want to get your reaction from a friend of the show Andrew Com.
52:45
[SPEAKER_05]: I don't know if people saw this, it was titled, Tom Lee's E-F-E-SIS is retarded.
52:51
[SPEAKER_05]: You got about 1.5 million views.
52:52
[SPEAKER_05]: And basically, his claim was that, yeah, look, it might be true that stable points are going to theory, I'm Artibus going to theory on people banks are going to use a theory on, but they're not going to pay fees, they're always saying fees for any of this.
53:01
[SPEAKER_05]: This is all just a meme, and you should buy Robo, I don't know Robo, about it.
53:03
[SPEAKER_05]: Somebody is, I guess, super big Robo.
53:05
[SPEAKER_05]: Do you have a counterpoint to what you saw coming out of the Henry Kong camp at Outers?
53:11
[SPEAKER_04]: Well, as you know, in the crypto world, retarded is a good thing.
53:15
[SPEAKER_04]: I took it as a compliment.
53:16
[SPEAKER_04]: Okay, okay, I'm eating it.
53:18
[SPEAKER_04]: I'm eating it.
53:19
[SPEAKER_04]: There you go.
53:20
[SPEAKER_04]: Good applause.
53:21
[SPEAKER_04]: That's a very good response.
53:22
[SPEAKER_05]: Wow.
53:23
[SPEAKER_05]: Okay, on the way.
53:25
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, that guy, I mean, somebody that's more self-aware and comedic timing and understanding the environment that he lives and works in all while being one of, you know, I mean, I guess like literally one of the greatest investors in the last decade is,
53:42
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a treasure, he's a treasure, we must protect Tom Lee at all costs.
53:47
[SPEAKER_00]: It got a protective man.
53:48
[SPEAKER_00]: The guy is funny because he can be so serious and so very formal and well-spoken in front of the camera when he's on national television and then he can sit back and like a reclining chair in front of like a token conference and say stuff like that so I mean you know he does it all, he has a bed in his office.
54:06
[SPEAKER_00]: all all juggle in all these different hats and positions and so.
54:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, just a smart man.
54:12
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it's hard to bet against him and we'll keep covering him as well just a little business internal crypto one-on-one business to wrap up the show guys it is up to over.
54:24
[SPEAKER_01]: We are going to be super super busy with so much stuff this month, but we still want to get out as many episodes as we can.
54:30
[SPEAKER_01]: We're banking some interview episodes.
54:32
[SPEAKER_01]: We're going to release Brendan and I are going to go and try and do these rundowns as much as we can and do some lives.
54:36
[SPEAKER_01]: We will be doing a Friday, Brendan and I are going to decide on the time and I will post it.
54:41
[SPEAKER_01]: later today.
54:42
[SPEAKER_01]: But there will be no lives next week.
54:46
[SPEAKER_01]: And then we'll try and schedule some in at the end of October as well.
54:49
[SPEAKER_01]: But we just have we just have a lot of work going on, a lot of research.
54:52
[SPEAKER_01]: The teams getting together.
54:53
[SPEAKER_01]: It's up to over.
54:55
[SPEAKER_01]: So we got to stay locked in.
54:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Obviously just a lot of stuff getting us propelled forward into as we as we are in Q4, but as we head into the end of the year.
55:04
[SPEAKER_01]: The crypto 101 team has going to stay locked in and everything that we're doing is we're trying to bring you guys the best content that we can So just stay with us.
55:11
[SPEAKER_01]: I know we've been really really regimented and getting a good schedule on a good cadence It's going to get a little disrupted here But we're still going to try and put out as much content as we can so just stay tuned to the X the YouTube and the podcast and we're going to get as much information as we can do you guys But I'll hand it off to you to wrap up the show
55:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
55:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, hi, everyone.
55:31
[SPEAKER_00]: We really appreciate all of you coming in here listening to what we had to say.
55:35
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously a lot to talk about.
55:36
[SPEAKER_00]: It was almost another hour long episode over here, but we hope everyone's pulled up.
55:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Listen, it's a great time to be a part of crypto.
55:44
[SPEAKER_00]: We've been loving all the price action so far.
55:46
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, we think the future is looking bright, which means that there is the potential for more upside.
55:52
[SPEAKER_00]: So,
55:52
[SPEAKER_00]: We're looking at these dips pretty eagerly.
55:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Doesn't mean that they can't happen.
55:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Doesn't mean we can't go lower.
55:56
[SPEAKER_00]: But again, we tend to believe that crypto's going to continue moving up into the right over the course of time.
56:03
[SPEAKER_00]: And we hope that you all join us on the journey as we kind of make our way there.
56:06
[SPEAKER_00]: So thank you all for watching.
56:08
[SPEAKER_00]: If you did, if you did like this, hit that like button, hit that subscribe button.
56:11
[SPEAKER_00]: And we'll see all of you in the next live screen.