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Transcript

Thursday BEST BETS | Thinnest Thursday | MLB & WNBA & NFL Preseason | 8/27/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your head Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: made you this mad But don't.
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: You go quiet, don't you fade from the floor Your
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: name still means something to somebody for sure Put the glass.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: Down, baby.
• 0:44
  Speaker 3: Look at me now Hold on, hold on Not tonight,
• 0:55
  Speaker 3: not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: out That fella fights hard But he don't get the.
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: Crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:30
  Speaker 4: What's up, everybody? This thing doesn't unmute sometimes. I don't know.
• 1:34
  Speaker 4: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports Thursday,
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: August 27th. 2-1 on the show yesterday, three winning days
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: in a row. I mean, I'll take it. It didn't
• 1:44
  Speaker 4: look good early with the under in the afternoon baseball game,
• 1:48
  Speaker 4: the Philly-Seattle game. Brian Wu, I don't know what's going
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: on with him, man. He didn't have it. That happens
• 1:55
  Speaker 4: on the road, but at home, he's been outstanding at home.
• 2:00
  Speaker 4: I don't know how he gave up six runs. He
• 2:02
  Speaker 4: gave up six runs. in the first two innings. So
• 2:04
  Speaker 4: one more run and that bet's pushing two more and
• 2:07
  Speaker 4: it's done. Well, what happened in that game? Uh, Jesus
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: Lizardo on the other side had no hitter. I think
• 2:13
  Speaker 4: it's like the sixth inning and the bullpens didn't allow anything.
• 2:17
  Speaker 4: No more runs scored zero runs from the second inning
• 2:20
  Speaker 4: on board. So we still got it right with the
• 2:23
  Speaker 4: under and it hit on the under six and a
• 2:25
  Speaker 4: half as well. So if people played that, they still
• 2:29
  Speaker 4: got the win. Uh, we also got the win with
• 2:31
  Speaker 4: the Marlins. Um, I mean, not that I'm thrilled about that,
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: but I thought it was the right play. The Red
• 2:36
  Speaker 4: Sox put nothing together offensively, which is kind of gross
• 2:41
  Speaker 4: against Gusto and whatever. But, yeah, Red Sox not good.
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: Miami hit on the– I assume it was Gusto, right?
• 2:49
  Speaker 4: Let me make sure of that. Yeah. Yes, correct. Yeah,
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: I just wanted to make sure that, yeah, the bet
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: definitely counted or whatever. I mean, sometimes I'm not totally
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: paying attention. But yeah, so Miami hit in the first
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: five and they won the full game. It was 2-0
• 3:06
  Speaker 4: at the end of five, 4-0 final. WNBA, dude, I
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: feel like I keep saying it. I think it was bullshit,
• 3:13
  Speaker 4: to be honest. And the back door being open, I think,
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: was correct as part of the handicap. But Golden State,
• 3:20
  Speaker 4: they just packed it in early. They went on a
• 3:23
  Speaker 4: stretch in the fourth quarter where they basically didn't score.
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: The problem was Connecticut wasn't scoring either, but Connecticut had
• 3:31
  Speaker 4: eight more field goal attempts in the game. I think
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: they had at least eight or nine more free throw
• 3:37
  Speaker 4: attempts in the game. So Connecticut had more possessions in
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: the game and they couldn't even cover a 14 point.
• 3:43
  Speaker 4: underdog spread. Like, you have to be kidding me. They
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: shot horribly in the game. They shot like 31%. Golden State,
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: I think, was around 50%, and they were almost shooting
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: 50% from three for the majority of the game. You
• 3:56
  Speaker 4: can't do anything about that when you have outliers like that.
• 3:58
  Speaker 4: I mean, I know it's Connecticut. They're bad. It's backup
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: players to some extent, whatever, but you're going to shoot 31%?
• 4:05
  Speaker 4: I mean, come on, man. And Connecticut, I believe they
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: actually did win the turnover battle. Maybe it's not a
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: good sign when you win the turnover battle and you lose.
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: They did not win the rebound battle. But still, when
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: you have eight more field goal attempts in the game
• 4:20
  Speaker 4: and more free throw attempts in the game, and you
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: can't even cover a plus-14... you know that there are
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: shooting outliers going on in that game, and that is
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: what it was. Like, Golden State hit a ton of
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: their shots. Connecticut missed a ton of theirs. And Connecticut
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: missed a ton of free throws, too. They were like
• 4:36
  Speaker 4: 50% from the free throw line. So if they had
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: hit a few more of those free throws, we would
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: have been in better shape, too. I don't know what
• 4:44
  Speaker 4: to tell you, man. It's not going to be a
• 4:46
  Speaker 4: winning WNBA season. Baseball has been good recently. Whatever. I
• 4:51
  Speaker 4: don't like today's board. I mean, it's a small board today.
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: I'm going to give out a baseball play. Hopefully I'm
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: not forcing it just because I feel like I have
• 4:58
  Speaker 4: to have one play somewhere. I like the play, so
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: I say we go with it. Most of these series
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: are finishing today, so Colorado at Washington. Colorado's won the
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: last two games of what is a four-game series here
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: after Washington won the first game. Two of the games
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: went way over the total. That's because each team put
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: up 13 runs in those two games. The second game
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: was very low-scoring. This game is a little bit hard
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: to predict for me here. You know I don't like
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: these two bullpens. They're both bad bullpens. Washington used five
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: relief pitchers yesterday. Colorado used only one, but I don't
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: trust either bullpen. Washington's 26th, Colorado 27th based on whip.
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: They're both like bottom five bullpens, so I don't think
• 5:44
  Speaker 4: it matters which one we really consider to be the
• 5:46
  Speaker 4: better one. Colorado's is more rested for whatever that's worth.
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: Washington is third in offense, Colorado fourth, so these are
• 5:54
  Speaker 4: offenses that can hit. Gabriel Hughes is pitching for Colorado.
• 5:57
  Speaker 4: He's a rookie. He looked good when he first came up,
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: but he has not been as good recently. 6.54 ERA,
• 6:05
  Speaker 4: although his 1.36 width does kind of indicate that ERA
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: is misleadingly high. It should probably be, I would say,
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: closer to the five range, but he's not good on
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: the road. 9.47 road ERA. Kind of crazy that he's
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: pitched way better in Coors Field, which, whatever, man. He
• 6:25
  Speaker 4: pitched a little bit better last time out, but it
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: was against Cleveland. He wasn't exactly great, and they're not
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: a good offense, so I'm not really impressed by that.
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: But he was worse in the prior three starts, so
• 6:36
  Speaker 4: maybe he is kind of trending in the right direction.
• 6:38
  Speaker 4: His hit rate is too high. His walk rate is,
• 6:41
  Speaker 4: I would say, mediocre. Strikeout rate is okay-ish. So his
• 6:46
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio is nothing special, really. Strikeout per nine,
• 6:49
  Speaker 4: not really anything great either. Washington, it's interesting because he
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: did face Washington in Coors in July, and he held
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: them to one run in five innings, and it looked
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: like a good pitching line. But Washington's current lineup has
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: 14 at-bats against them. They have a. 357 average and
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: 900 OPS, so that– is interesting to me because, like,
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: he only has that one game against them. So how
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: did that wind up translating into these numbers? I guess
• 7:19
  Speaker 4: everybody that got a hit off him in that game
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: is still in the lineup, and some of the hitters
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: that didn't do anything off of him, I guess, are
• 7:25
  Speaker 4: no longer on Washington's active roster. I guess that must
• 7:28
  Speaker 4: be what it is. Three strikeouts, one walk there. I
• 7:32
  Speaker 4: don't really expect a whole lot from Hughes. Like, just
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: not good on the road, not good current form, not
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: good numbers against Washington. even though his start did look
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: good against them. Jake Irvin is pitching for Washington. He
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: has not been great either, 5.82 ERA, 1.36 whip. So
• 7:50
  Speaker 4: these pitchers have the same whip. Irvin has been way
• 7:53
  Speaker 4: worse at home, 7.86 home ERA. So that had me
• 7:57
  Speaker 4: kind of thinking maybe this is an over, which I
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: would not disagree with the over. I mean, you have
• 8:02
  Speaker 4: both pitchers in the bad side of their home road splits.
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: Neither pitcher is good. Both bullpens are bad as well,
• 8:08
  Speaker 4: so I think most things do line up towards an
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: over in this game. Irvin has been somewhat okay recently,
• 8:15
  Speaker 4: but he still has some walk issues here. His hit
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: rate is okay. His walk rate is definitely too high.
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: His strikeout rate isn't bad, though, so he is a
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: strikeout pitcher to some extent more so than Hughes is,
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: but his walk rate's really high, so his strikeout walk
• 8:28
  Speaker 4: ratio isn't that good. His strikeout per nine is the
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: best that he's posted, but He's had kind of a
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: short season because he was injured in the middle of
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: the season for a while. Irvin, though, he's been good
• 8:39
  Speaker 4: against Colorado. They have 38 at-bats against them, 11 strikeouts,
• 8:43
  Speaker 4: two walks, and only a 105 average and 466 OPS.
• 8:46
  Speaker 4: So Irvin might actually pitch okay here. So I think
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: the two ways of playing this game are to play Washington.
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: They're about minus 130-something here. They moved up from minus 115.
• 8:59
  Speaker 4: I think there is some real money on Washington here.
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: 70% of the tickets, 83% of the cash on Washington.
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: I mean, even Washington's bullpen's unrested too, though. So if
• 9:10
  Speaker 4: you play Washington, I think you have to take them
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: in the first five. You can't really rely on their bullpen.
• 9:15
  Speaker 4: So I think that's one option in this game is
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: Washington first five, but you're probably going to be looking
• 9:19
  Speaker 4: at a heavier price here and maybe having to lay
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: a half run. But Irvin is the more established pitcher,
• 9:26
  Speaker 4: at least, and does have the matchup numbers where he
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: should be able to get that done. Washington could be
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: in kind of a bounce back spot after the embarrassing
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: loss yesterday too. So that's the other thing. Motivation might
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: be more on the Washington side after just a horrific
• 9:40
  Speaker 4: looking loss at home yesterday. And again, the other way
• 9:43
  Speaker 4: that I would play this game is to just play
• 9:45
  Speaker 4: it over. The total is nine and a half though.
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: So it is above that key number of nine, 68%
• 9:51
  Speaker 4: of tickets, only 58% of the cash on the over.
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: So the money's not really agreeing with that, but there's
• 9:57
  Speaker 4: no way I would play this game under. I mean,
• 9:59
  Speaker 4: it seems like it's, pretty much bad pitching everywhere you
• 10:02
  Speaker 4: look in this game, and the offenses are both pretty good,
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: so over definitely makes sense in that game. Dirty Sock,
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Baltimore St. Louis on ESPN, unlimited.
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: St.
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: Louis is not playing well. They've lost five games in
• 10:19
  Speaker 4: a row. They're about to get swept in this series.
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: They got blown out in the first game. It was
• 10:23
  Speaker 4: a return home spot, so negative spot there. We won
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: on the over in that game. St. Louis played better yesterday.
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: It was a crazy game that wound up being an
• 10:32
  Speaker 4: 8-7 Baltimore win. Is Baltimore going to be looking ahead? Well,
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: who are they playing next? I forget. They're playing the
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: A's next, so probably not. Not really any team to
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: look ahead to there, but Baltimore still might get caught here.
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? Usually when you have a
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: home team looking to avoid the sweep, that's the way
• 10:52
  Speaker 4: you want to look. The problem is it was supposed
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: to be Hunter Dobbins pitching in this game for St. Louis,
• 10:57
  Speaker 4: and he's hurt again, so he's not going to pitch here.
• 11:00
  Speaker 4: So St. Louis has not decided on a pitcher. I
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: have no idea. They might call somebody up. They might
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: go with a bullpen game. So whatever they do, I
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: think that's the problem here. St. Louis is going to
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: potentially have the motivational edge here, but Baltimore is going
• 11:16
  Speaker 4: to clearly have the starting pitching edge here. And Baltimore
• 11:19
  Speaker 4: does also have the better bullpen, although Baltimore used five
• 11:23
  Speaker 4: relief pitchers in that game yesterday. St. Louis did also
• 11:25
  Speaker 4: use four. Baltimore is the better ranked bullpen here. They're
• 11:30
  Speaker 4: actually ranked 10th, and their ERA is below four, so
• 11:33
  Speaker 4: that's not bad. St. Louis is ranked 23rd with a
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: mid-4 ZRA. Offensively, Baltimore is also better than St.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Louis.
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: Baltimore is 16th. St. Louis is 24th. Tied with the
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: Mets and the Reds. That's probably not a good sign.
• 11:49
  Speaker 4: So Baltimore does, I think, have every matchup edge here.
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: Better bullpen, better hitting. and better pitching because Baltimore is
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: going with Trevor Rogers here. He's turned his season around, man. Again,
• 12:00
  Speaker 4: he was good for Baltimore last year and seemed to
• 12:02
  Speaker 4: kind of come from out of nowhere. This year he
• 12:04
  Speaker 4: wasn't pitching that well, but he's been pitching really well
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: over the last couple months. 4.14 ERA on the season, 1.24 whip.
• 12:11
  Speaker 4: Doesn't look that spectacular, but he's been pretty good on
• 12:14
  Speaker 4: the road, 3.95 road ERA. And like I said, he's
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: been a lot better over the last couple months. He's
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: only allowed more than 300 runs twice this year. since
• 12:23
  Speaker 4: he's a lot more than two earned runs, excuse me,
• 12:28
  Speaker 4: three times, let's say, since the beginning of June. So
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: since the beginning of June, he really started turning everything around.
• 12:34
  Speaker 4: His strikeout walk ratio has been quite good since then.
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: So he's been in full command, and he hasn't a
• 12:39
  Speaker 4: lot more than four earned runs in any of those starts,
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: and that was only one time. So he's been good.
• 12:44
  Speaker 4: Baltimore's been winning a lot of his starts as well.
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: They've only lost two of his starts since late June.
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: He's got a decent hit rate here. He doesn't really
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: walk many guys, and he strikes out a decent amount
• 12:55
  Speaker 4: of guys. So his strikeout walk ratio is pretty good,
• 12:58
  Speaker 4: a lot of it because he doesn't walk guys. Strikeout
• 13:01
  Speaker 4: per nine isn't as good as it was last year.
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: I mean, it is mediocre, but because he doesn't walk anybody,
• 13:07
  Speaker 4: it is sufficient. And he's good against St. Louis, although
• 13:11
  Speaker 4: they only have 14 at-bats against him. Five hitters have
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: faced him. 214 average, 598 OPS allowed, 3-2 strikeout walk ratio.
• 13:21
  Speaker 4: I mean, we don't know who's pitching for St. Louis,
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: but I think I'd only be able to play Baltimore here,
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: even though I know St. Louis is a home team
• 13:29
  Speaker 4: looking to avoid the sweep, so I don't really want Baltimore,
• 13:32
  Speaker 4: and the money is not agreeing with this. 67% of
• 13:35
  Speaker 4: tickets on Baltimore, 72% of the cash on St. Louis,
• 13:39
  Speaker 4: but what edge does St. Louis have besides the motivation?
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? If they are negative in
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: every part of the matchup here, Yeah, I mean, I
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: think that outweighs the situation, to be honest. I would
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: only be able to look at Baltimore here. They're about
• 13:54
  Speaker 4: minus 120 on the money line there. Maybe that's reasonable.
• 13:58
  Speaker 4: I don't really know. Kind of depends on who's starting
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: for St. Louis. It might be a wait and see
• 14:03
  Speaker 4: and actually see who St. Louis is starting here. But
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: I don't imagine it's going to be anybody good enough
• 14:09
  Speaker 4: to change my mind on a lead towards Baltimore there.
• 14:15
  Speaker 4: Houston at the Yankees. The Yankees, of course... have the
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: Red Sox coming in next. So I don't know if
• 14:21
  Speaker 4: they're going to look ahead or not. The Yankees lost
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: the first game of the series, and then they won yesterday.
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: So this is a split series here. Houston probably does
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: have a little bit of a motivational edge here because
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: they're really trying to win their division. The Yankees are
• 14:35
  Speaker 4: definitely going to make the playoffs. It doesn't really matter
• 14:38
  Speaker 4: to them as much. Houston is definitely the more desperate
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: team here because they're basically going to have to win
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: their division to make the playoffs. And the Yankees could
• 14:47
  Speaker 4: start looking ahead to the Red Sox potentially. Although I
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: think because the Yankees won yesterday and the Red Sox
• 14:54
  Speaker 4: lost yesterday, there's basically no way the Red Sox are
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: going to be able to overtake them in the weekend series.
• 15:00
  Speaker 4: And that weekend series is going to be really bad
• 15:03
  Speaker 4: for the Red Sox because Toley and Gray both pitched
• 15:07
  Speaker 4: in the Marlins series at the end of that series.
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: So neither of them are pitching for the Red Sox.
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: They're playing four games in three days because there's a
• 15:14
  Speaker 4: makeup game in there too. And the Red Sox are
• 15:16
  Speaker 4: pitching Sandoval today. in the first game of the series.
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: It's just so bad, dude. That's an automatic loss. Even
• 15:23
  Speaker 4: though the Red Sox will have a rest edge, there's
• 15:25
  Speaker 4: no way they're winning with Sandoval on the mound. And
• 15:28
  Speaker 4: then it's going to probably get worse. I don't know.
• 15:32
  Speaker 4: It might get even worse from there. The top two
• 15:34
  Speaker 4: Red Sox pitchers aren't pitching in the series. You've got
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: to be fucking kidding me. They should have moved Gray back, dude.
• 15:42
  Speaker 4: They should have had Sandoval. They should have done something
• 15:44
  Speaker 4: else yesterday. Just go with a bullpen game. Because the
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: Red Sox are off today. So they should have used
• 15:50
  Speaker 4: a bullpen game yesterday. Just whatever. You're going to lose
• 15:54
  Speaker 4: that game anyway. So, yeah, whatever. And then had Gray
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: pitch in the Friday game instead. That's what they should
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: have done. Anyway, Yankees used three relief pitchers yesterday. Houston...
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: used three as well. Yankees are the better bullpen here.
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: They're ranked number two, which I think is accurate. Houston
• 16:13
  Speaker 4: is not bad, though. Houston is 13th, although their ERA
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: is getting a little bit questionable. It is definitely above
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: four here. They're not a horrible bullpen, but the Yankees
• 16:22
  Speaker 4: definitely have the better one. Houston's been the better offense.
• 16:25
  Speaker 4: They're number 10. Yankees are 15th, although the Yankees are
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: starting to hit well again. They've been a bad offense, though,
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: for quite a while now. Hayden Wisniewski is getting the
• 16:36
  Speaker 4: start for Houston here. He's a little bit hard to predict,
• 16:39
  Speaker 4: I think. He's been decent in the past, and he's
• 16:42
  Speaker 4: had to deal with some injuries. He hasn't pitched that
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: much the last couple seasons. He's still posted all right
• 16:47
  Speaker 4: numbers here. He has a 4.23 ERA this year, 1.23 whip.
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: Not great, but not horrible. I was going to say
• 16:55
  Speaker 4: he's basically the same home and away, like ERA-wise he is,
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: but he does have a worse opponent batting average on
• 17:00
  Speaker 4: the road. at 267, so he is definitely a little
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: bit worse on the road. Pitched pretty well last time
• 17:06
  Speaker 4: against the A's, although his walk number wasn't really good
• 17:08
  Speaker 4: in that one, but he one-hit shutout them through five innings.
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: So he's not exactly pitching poorly. His hit rate is okay.
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: His walk rate is, I guess, okay. His strikeout rate
• 17:19
  Speaker 4: is also okay, so kind of a lot of mediocrity here.
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: His strikeout walk ratio this year so far is lower
• 17:25
  Speaker 4: than it has been throughout his career, so that might improve, actually.
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: And his strikeout per nine, same thing. Same thing with that.
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: He hasn't been that good against the Yankees, but they
• 17:34
  Speaker 4: only have five hitters who have faced him, 15 at-bats,
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: six strikeouts, no walks, 267 average and 933 OPS. But
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: that's all because Ramos has two home runs off him.
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: The rest of the Yankees lineup has not done a
• 17:47
  Speaker 4: whole lot. So one guy is basically doing most of
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: that damage there. So I'm not ready to write off
• 17:53
  Speaker 4: Wes Neskey here. Yankees have the starting pitching edge, though.
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: because they're going with Garrett Cole here. They're not going
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: to push him back to the Red Sox series. He's
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: got a 3.11 ERA, 1.07 whip. He's been really good
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: at home, although his ERA is slightly higher, but a
• 18:08
  Speaker 4: 192 opponent batting average at home. Really good. He's in
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: really good form right now. Hasn't allowed more than two
• 18:14
  Speaker 4: earned runs in any start going all the way back
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: into late July. Hasn't allowed more than three in any
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: start since the beginning of July when he really started
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: turning this thing around. He's got a pretty low hit rate.
• 18:24
  Speaker 4: He doesn't really walk anybody. His strikeout rate is also high.
• 18:28
  Speaker 4: Numbers good across the board here. Good strikeout walk ratio.
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: Pretty good strikeout per nine as well. All those numbers
• 18:36
  Speaker 4: are good. Numbers against Houston are also good. At 94 at-bats,
• 18:40
  Speaker 4: 30 strikeouts, four walks. 202 average, 533 OPS. I think
• 18:46
  Speaker 4: the only way that I could really look at this
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: game is to play the Yankees, even though I don't
• 18:50
  Speaker 4: really think the situation helps them, but the matchup seems
• 18:54
  Speaker 4: to help them pretty much across the board except for
• 18:57
  Speaker 4: maybe the offense. But Cole, he's definitely the better starter,
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: and the Yankees also have the better bullpen. So the
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: only way that I'd probably be able to play this
• 19:06
  Speaker 4: game is to find some way to play the Yankees.
• 19:08
  Speaker 4: They're at like minus 150-something here, so it would be
• 19:11
  Speaker 4: a minus one run line situation probably, like create your
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: own minus one run line situation. Yankees might not bat
• 19:17
  Speaker 4: in the ninth inning, but if they're winning, you'll at
• 19:19
  Speaker 4: least not lose any money on that. 84% of tickets,
• 19:22
  Speaker 4: 91% of the cash on the Yankees. They look public,
• 19:25
  Speaker 4: but it looks like the money is coming in on
• 19:27
  Speaker 4: them as well. The money is also playing the over,
• 19:31
  Speaker 4: over the eight slightly. I don't know about that, man.
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I actually think this game seems more
• 19:39
  Speaker 4: like an under to me, especially after the last two
• 19:41
  Speaker 4: games went over. people are really going to have a
• 19:43
  Speaker 4: tendency to want to play the over here. The public
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: is definitely not playing an under in this game, even
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: if it is Cole. They're going to see the high
• 19:50
  Speaker 4: scores recently. These two teams can both hit generally, sort of.
• 19:55
  Speaker 4: I know the Yankees haven't been that good recently, but
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: that's the perception at least. But I don't know. To me,
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: I think the pitching might actually be able to get
• 20:01
  Speaker 4: the job done and that one to get it under,
• 20:03
  Speaker 4: but I don't want to do it. I still think
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: the Yankees are definitely the best way to play that game, though.
• 20:10
  Speaker 4: By the way, the total in the Baltimore-St. Louis game
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: is eight pretty much across the board, and money coming
• 20:17
  Speaker 4: in a little bit towards the under in that one,
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: but I think that's going to depend on who St.
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: Louis is starting. You know what I mean? Like, Rogers
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: sets up for it to be an under game, but
• 20:27
  Speaker 4: whoever St. Louis' pitcher is might not be very under-conducive.
• 20:31
  Speaker 4: Kansas City at Toronto. Toronto won yesterday. despite going with
• 20:35
  Speaker 4: a bullpen game. I told you I leaned to Toronto
• 20:37
  Speaker 4: in that game yesterday. Dobnock, I don't even think was really, again,
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: like he didn't give up that many runs at least.
• 20:43
  Speaker 4: I mean, that guy, I don't know how he's doing
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: what he's doing because he should be way worse than this,
• 20:48
  Speaker 4: but whatever. Coming into this game, Kansas City just lost
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: like an eight-game or nine-game win streak, whatever this was.
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: So you know I talk about that. When a team
• 20:56
  Speaker 4: loses a win streak, a lot of times they get
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: hung over into the next game because it's like all
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: that momentum just stops and they can kind of lose
• 21:03
  Speaker 4: that same game twice. So the spot here is definitely
• 21:07
  Speaker 4: against Kansas City. So I'd be looking towards Toronto as
• 21:10
  Speaker 4: far as the side, as far as the situation. But
• 21:15
  Speaker 4: I think this pitching matchup actually favors Kansas City here,
• 21:18
  Speaker 4: and that's kind of the problem. not the bullpens. However,
• 21:22
  Speaker 4: because Toronto went with a bullpen game, they're the less
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: rested bullpen. Kansas City only used one guy out of
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: the bullpen yesterday. Toronto used almost everybody. They used seven guys,
• 21:33
  Speaker 4: so I would have to avoid both bullpens in this game.
• 21:36
  Speaker 4: Toronto is the better bullpen generally, but they used everybody yesterday.
• 21:41
  Speaker 4: They're ranked 17th, but Kansas City is ranked dead last,
• 21:43
  Speaker 4: although again, they're not as bad as the A's, but
• 21:47
  Speaker 4: they're the second-worst bullpen. So I think both of these
• 21:50
  Speaker 4: bullpens are to be avoided in this game. The offenses
• 21:54
  Speaker 4: here are not good, though. Kansas City, 21st, tied with
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: the Rangers. What are we looking at? Toronto, where are they? Yeah,
• 22:02
  Speaker 4: they're 28th. Toronto's one of the worst. Kansas City's also
• 22:06
  Speaker 4: not a good road offense, so we are looking at
• 22:08
  Speaker 4: some bad offenses here. Kansas City, I think, does have
• 22:11
  Speaker 4: the better starting pitcher here, Noah Cameron. He's pretty much
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: turned his season around, 4.02 ERA now, 1.21 whip. He's
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: actually better on the road, I think because Kauffman Stadium
• 22:23
  Speaker 4: having the shorter walls now is kind of affecting him there.
• 22:26
  Speaker 4: But he's got a 3.33 road ERA and a 196
• 22:29
  Speaker 4: opponent batting average on the road. That's some good stuff.
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: He came off a complete game, one-hit performance against Anaheim.
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: Followed that up with a five-inning shutout against Detroit, so
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: he's continuing to pitch pretty well here. The walks are
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: maybe a little bit of an issue, though. He's been
• 22:45
  Speaker 4: really hard to hit recently, though, and his hit rate
• 22:47
  Speaker 4: is pretty good on the season. His walk rate is
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: kind of mediocre. Strikeout rate is not excellent, but it's decent.
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: So really the walks are kind of the issue with him.
• 22:59
  Speaker 4: He has an okay strikeout-walk ratio. Strikeout for nine is
• 23:03
  Speaker 4: not too bad. But, yeah, the walks are really the
• 23:05
  Speaker 4: main issue with him. He's good against Toronto, though. So
• 23:08
  Speaker 4: you have Cameron good on the road, good against this
• 23:10
  Speaker 4: bad Toronto lineup, although they have only five hitters who
• 23:13
  Speaker 4: have faced him, but they're only three for 20 off him.
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: One extra base hit, a double from Springer. That's a
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: 150 average, 427 OPS, 3-2 strikeout-walk ratio. I think Cameron
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: does have the upper hand here against Spencer Arrighetti, who...
• 23:29
  Speaker 4: was on Houston and he wasn't doing that well. 4.73
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: or a 1.35 whip. I mean, he, I think he's
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: a guy that does have talent, but he is also
• 23:38
  Speaker 4: really wild and Houston let him go or whatever. Um,
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: or maybe it was a trade. I'm not sure. Um,
• 23:46
  Speaker 4: kind of weird because you think that Houston, I mean,
• 23:49
  Speaker 4: maybe Houston considers him to be like kind of a
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: future guy, like a guy that you need to develop still.
• 23:54
  Speaker 4: So Houston's trying to win right now. So maybe they're
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: just like, whatever. trade him or something. I don't know,
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: but Toronto picked him up. His first outing with Toronto
• 24:02
  Speaker 4: was not good. It was this outing against the Yankees
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: six days ago in Yankee Stadium. I mean, that's not
• 24:10
  Speaker 4: an easy matchup to have to face, you know what
• 24:15
  Speaker 4: I mean? But he didn't pitch well there. Only went
• 24:17
  Speaker 4: three and a third, gave up 300 runs. I don't
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: believe he started the game. I think they put an
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: opener in front of him, so that's one thing I
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: would be aware of. in this game is Toronto might
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: not start Arrighetti here. They might put an opener in
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: front of him, although because they used so many relief
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: pitchers yesterday, probably they actually won't. But I think if
• 24:33
  Speaker 4: you're going to play this game, I would pick Cameron
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: must start. Don't pick a starter for Toronto because they
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: might put an opener in front of this guy. Arrighetti, though, overall,
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: his hit rate is good. He's hard to hit. His
• 24:44
  Speaker 4: strikeout rate is pretty good, but his walk rate is
• 24:46
  Speaker 4: very high. So like I said, the walks are clearly
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: the issue with him. And it's making his strikeout walk
• 24:53
  Speaker 4: ratio really bad, even though he strikes out basically one
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: guy an inning, which is quite good. The walks are
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: just an insane number. He has to get that number down.
• 25:03
  Speaker 4: His numbers against Kansas City are also not very good.
• 25:06
  Speaker 4: In 22 at-bats, 318 average, 764 OPS, 8-3 strikeout walk ratio.
• 25:13
  Speaker 4: So the momentum stopping angle does favor Toronto here. However...
• 25:21
  Speaker 4: I think I've got to link Kansas City here in
• 25:23
  Speaker 4: this one, man. Cameron, you saw the numbers there. Cameron
• 25:26
  Speaker 4: is definitely the better of the two pitchers. Eric Getty,
• 25:29
  Speaker 4: by the way, his home road splits, just to put
• 25:31
  Speaker 4: it out there, he is better at home, 3.05 home ERA,
• 25:34
  Speaker 4: but that was with Houston. Hasn't pitched at home yet
• 25:37
  Speaker 4: with Toronto. But he was much, much better at home, though,
• 25:39
  Speaker 4: the 156th opponent batting average at home. So maybe he's
• 25:43
  Speaker 4: just a home pitcher and he's just better at home
• 25:46
  Speaker 4: no matter where home is. You know what I mean?
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: Some pitchers are like that. kind of a mental thing.
• 25:52
  Speaker 4: Who knows? I'm going to link Kansas City first five here,
• 25:55
  Speaker 4: but the money seems to not really agree. The situation,
• 25:58
  Speaker 4: I know, doesn't really line up with it. 56% of tickets,
• 26:01
  Speaker 4: 72% of the cash on Toronto. Kansas City is actually
• 26:05
  Speaker 4: kind of a small favorite in this game, which maybe
• 26:09
  Speaker 4: they're not a deserving favorite. That's another slight issue. If
• 26:13
  Speaker 4: you take Kansas City first five, which That would be
• 26:17
  Speaker 4: the way that I would lean in this game is
• 26:18
  Speaker 4: the Royals in the first five, although I really worry
• 26:20
  Speaker 4: about the fact they lost that long win streak. I
• 26:24
  Speaker 4: think they do have the starting pitching edge, and I
• 26:27
  Speaker 4: just wouldn't want to deal with the bull. I don't
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: want to deal with either bullpen here. But, yeah, you're
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: probably going to have to lay about minus 120-something if
• 26:36
  Speaker 4: you play Kansas City in the first five, but I
• 26:38
  Speaker 4: think maybe that is the way to look here. The
• 26:40
  Speaker 4: total's at eight. The money's pretty much indicating on the
• 26:43
  Speaker 4: over here. It's at eight and a half, excuse me.
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: um kind of in the middle of nowhere there I'm
• 26:49
  Speaker 4: not going to really disagree with an over I mean
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: if you play it over obviously you got to go
• 26:53
  Speaker 4: full game with that thing and take advantage of the
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: uh bad bullpen situation and bad bullpen in that game
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: so uh the bad bullpen on one side the bad
• 27:04
  Speaker 4: bullpen situation on the other side I'm not sure that
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: the starting pitchers will actually do that bad though so
• 27:09
  Speaker 4: I don't know if I love that I don't know
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: I think I would Kansas City, first five would be
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: my lean there. Milwaukee at the Mets. These teams have
• 27:17
  Speaker 4: split the series, so the Mets took game one, and
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: the Brewers fired back and won easily yesterday, 8-1. Brewers
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: are obviously the better team, although the Mets have been
• 27:28
  Speaker 4: playing a bit better since the All-Star break. They started
• 27:31
  Speaker 4: playing better when it was too late. Milwaukee used two
• 27:33
  Speaker 4: relief pitchers yesterday. Both of these bullpens are pretty good.
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: The Mets use three, but Milwaukee is the better bullpen.
• 27:40
  Speaker 4: They're ranked sixth. I think they're like the third best
• 27:43
  Speaker 4: bullpen in baseball at this point. The Mets are ranked ninth.
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: They're pretty good, but Brewers is a little bit better.
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: Brewers are definitely the better offense. They're fifth right now
• 27:53
  Speaker 4: tied with Pittsburgh, so the Brewers have been performing offensively.
• 27:57
  Speaker 4: I believe they're also pretty good on the road, if
• 27:59
  Speaker 4: I'm not mistaken, offensively. The Mets are 24th, tied with
• 28:04
  Speaker 4: Cardinals and Reds. Mets are not a great offense, although
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: they've gotten a little bit better recently. However, offense might
• 28:11
  Speaker 4: not really exist for them in this game because they
• 28:13
  Speaker 4: have to go up against Jacob Mizurowski. And if you
• 28:16
  Speaker 4: want him here, you're going to have to pay a
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: price with Milwaukee, obviously. He's got a 1.6 ADRA,. 76 whip.
• 28:24
  Speaker 4: I mean, when have we ever seen numbers like this, man?
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: I mean, this looks like we're in... I don't know,
• 28:29
  Speaker 4: the early 1900s or something. Who sustains numbers like this
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: over the course of a season?
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 28:35
  Speaker 4: It's insane. He's basically the same home and away. It
• 28:39
  Speaker 4: doesn't really matter. He's still pitching well. You've got to
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: think that the way that he throws, he throws so hard.
• 28:46
  Speaker 4: He's got to be wearing down at some point because
• 28:49
  Speaker 4: he's thrown more innings than he ever has before. He's
• 28:52
  Speaker 4: almost up to 150 here, but he's not showing signs
• 28:54
  Speaker 4: of it. He's still dominating in his recent starts and
• 28:58
  Speaker 4: dominating some good offenses here too. Good strikeout walk ratio.
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: He's got a really low hit rate. Doesn't really walk
• 29:05
  Speaker 4: many guys. Has a ridiculously high strikeout rate. Numbers really
• 29:09
  Speaker 4: excellent across the board. We all know this. He's going
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: to win the Cy Young and the NL. I think
• 29:13
  Speaker 4: there's probably no question about that at this point. Really
• 29:17
  Speaker 4: high strikeout walk ratio. Really high strikeout per nine. Numbers
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: against the Mets, though, interestingly, are actually not good. In
• 29:24
  Speaker 4: 15 at-bats, it is a very small sample. Seven hitters
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: have faced him. 333 average, 945 OPS, 4-2 strikeout walk ratio.
• 29:34
  Speaker 4: So Mizurowski might be a little bit vulnerable in this spot.
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: It's possible. He's getting up there in innings and he's
• 29:41
  Speaker 4: drawing a matchup that he actually doesn't do well with.
• 29:45
  Speaker 4: So something interesting there. Sean Minaya looks like he is
• 29:48
  Speaker 4: getting the start from the Mets, although they sometimes do
• 29:51
  Speaker 4: put an opener in front of them. So if you're
• 29:53
  Speaker 4: going to play this game, I might say pick Miz
• 29:56
  Speaker 4: must start and don't pick a starter from the Mets.
• 29:58
  Speaker 4: I think it's likely to be Minaya, but sometimes they
• 30:02
  Speaker 4: do put an opener in front of them. He's been
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: all right, 4.31 ERA, 1.31 whip, nothing really great. He
• 30:09
  Speaker 4: is a little bit worse at home, 4.37 home ERA.
• 30:12
  Speaker 4: He's been mediocre his last couple starts, given up too
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: many home runs here recently, although still kind of limiting
• 30:18
  Speaker 4: the runs that are being scored against him. He did
• 30:22
  Speaker 4: have a stretch with four good starts in a row.
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: The last couple starts were not quite as good, but
• 30:26
  Speaker 4: they were against pretty capable offenses, the Washington and the
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: White Sox. And he faced Pittsburgh before that and really
• 30:33
  Speaker 4: did well in that start. But Minaya, I mean, he's
• 30:36
  Speaker 4: generally been pitching all right for the last couple months.
• 30:39
  Speaker 4: He's got an okay hit rate. His walk rate's not
• 30:41
  Speaker 4: too bad. Usually you see more walks out of him.
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: And his strikeout rate is still actually pretty good at
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: one per inning. These numbers are not that bad. Strikeout
• 30:49
  Speaker 4: walk ratio's all right. Strikeout per nine is pretty good,
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: like I said. So not too bad. Numbers against Milwaukee, though.
• 30:57
  Speaker 4: Not very good. 57 at-bats, 333 average, 938 OPS, 13-4
• 31:03
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio. I mean, if you want to blame Milwaukee,
• 31:08
  Speaker 4: I mean, I think it's just pretty much off the
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: table because they should be the better team here. They
• 31:13
  Speaker 4: got the better starting pitcher. The matchup numbers, even if
• 31:16
  Speaker 4: they're not that good, I think they still favor Mizorowski here.
• 31:19
  Speaker 4: The bullpen favors Milwaukee. The offense favors Milwaukee. Problem is,
• 31:24
  Speaker 4: you can't lay minus 210 on the road, man. If
• 31:27
  Speaker 4: you really want to play Milwaukee, I guess you have
• 31:29
  Speaker 4: to lay the minus one and a half run line.
• 31:32
  Speaker 4: I don't think I'd recommend that either. They're pretty public,
• 31:34
  Speaker 4: 84% of tickets, 86% of the cash on them. I
• 31:38
  Speaker 4: think I would actually play this game over the total.
• 31:42
  Speaker 4: The money looks like it's coming in towards the under.
• 31:44
  Speaker 4: The total is low, obviously. It's at seven, basically, which,
• 31:48
  Speaker 4: you know, a Miz game, you know, is pretty much
• 31:51
  Speaker 4: always going to have a low total. But Minaya gets
• 31:53
  Speaker 4: some respect in the market as well. 93% of tickets
• 31:56
  Speaker 4: on the over and 90% of the cash. The over
• 32:00
  Speaker 4: is actually really public here, which I don't know if
• 32:03
  Speaker 4: that's kind of surprising to me, I think. But I
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: think I would still play this game over because there's
• 32:07
  Speaker 4: just no leeway there. And both pitchers have bad matchup numbers.
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: So I think that's what I would do. It might
• 32:14
  Speaker 4: get over, man. It seems a little dangerous. And you
• 32:17
  Speaker 4: know me, I don't like playing overs when the total
• 32:19
  Speaker 4: is that low because the odds makers are pretty much
• 32:21
  Speaker 4: signaling to you this is going to be a low-scoring
• 32:24
  Speaker 4: game here. But I think it might be able to
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: sneak over the total in that one. I don't want
• 32:30
  Speaker 4: to do it. All right, Fox Sports won the televised
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: game between the Dodgers and the Braves. Garrett is probably
• 32:37
  Speaker 4: happy that the Braves have won each game in the
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: series by one run. But now it means the Dodgers
• 32:42
  Speaker 4: are trying to avoid the sweep here. And, you know,
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: I like looking at teams that are trying to avoid
• 32:47
  Speaker 4: the sweep here. Don't know if I want to do
• 32:49
  Speaker 4: that here, though, because this is an elite pitching matchup
• 32:52
  Speaker 4: here on both sides, so this game is probably going
• 32:54
  Speaker 4: to be close. So I think it's hard to pick
• 32:56
  Speaker 4: a side here. Atlanta's got the better bullpen. They used
• 33:00
  Speaker 4: four guys out of the bullpen yesterday, though. Dodgers also
• 33:03
  Speaker 4: used four. Atlanta's number four right now in bullpen. I
• 33:06
  Speaker 4: would say that's probably correct. They're four or five. San
• 33:10
  Speaker 4: Diego's in the mix there as well. L.A. is 12th.
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: They're an okay bullpen. Hitting-wise, the Dodgers are back in
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: first place there. They're the number one offense. Atlanta is
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: number 11, tied with Miami. So the Dodgers do have
• 33:25
  Speaker 4: the better offense. The Dodgers are going with Yoshinobu Yamamoto here.
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: We know he's good. 2.61 ERA,. 9 whip is really good.
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: He's actually even better on the road. 1.99 road ERA.
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: He's continuing to pitch well. I mean, there's no real
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: mystery here. Like, we know he's good. He's almost... He's
• 33:45
  Speaker 4: highly likely to be good in any given start. You
• 33:47
  Speaker 4: know what I mean? It's rare that he's not. He's
• 33:49
  Speaker 4: got a low hit rate. Doesn't really walk many guys either.
• 33:52
  Speaker 4: Strikeout rate is pretty good as well. All those numbers
• 33:55
  Speaker 4: are good. Good strikeout walk ratio. Strikeout per nine actually
• 34:00
  Speaker 4: has gone down from where it was his last two seasons,
• 34:03
  Speaker 4: which is interesting. I don't know if he's changed something,
• 34:06
  Speaker 4: but yeah, he's not striking out as many guys, but
• 34:08
  Speaker 4: he's still been really effective. And his numbers against Atlanta...
• 34:13
  Speaker 4: They're pretty good in 32 at-bats, 219 average. The only
• 34:17
  Speaker 4: thing that looks a little bit questionable here is the
• 34:19
  Speaker 4: 762 OPS is a little bit high. He's got some
• 34:22
  Speaker 4: walks in here, five walks, 11 strikeouts, not the greatest
• 34:25
  Speaker 4: ratio there, and some extra base hits going on here.
• 34:28
  Speaker 4: Do I think he's actually going to pitch poorly here?
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: No.
• 34:32
  Speaker 4: I think he's going to pitch well. And on the
• 34:34
  Speaker 4: other side, Chris Sale is pitching for Atlanta. So, yeah,
• 34:37
  Speaker 4: like I said, this is a very good pitching matchup.
• 34:39
  Speaker 4: Sale has a 2.2 ERA, 1.03 whip. He's still pitching
• 34:44
  Speaker 4: at an extremely high level, even though he's old, and
• 34:47
  Speaker 4: he is a guy that does rely on velocity. 1.65
• 34:49
  Speaker 4: home ERA, so he's been excellent at home. He's still
• 34:54
  Speaker 4: pitching well recently. He's not walking anybody over these recent
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: starts here. Still getting a lot of strikeouts, not allowing
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: runs here. Atlanta's not coming through for him, though. They've
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: lost his last three starts, and He pitched well in
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: all of them, so it's not his fault. He's getting
• 35:10
  Speaker 4: no run support here. He's got a low hit rate,
• 35:13
  Speaker 4: low walk rate, high strikeout rate. All those numbers are good.
• 35:16
  Speaker 4: Strikeout walk ratio is really high. Strikeout per nine is
• 35:21
  Speaker 4: also really high. Those numbers are all really good. His
• 35:24
  Speaker 4: numbers against L.A. are also good. In 106 at-bats, 33-6
• 35:27
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio is really good. 226 average, 696 OPS.
• 35:34
  Speaker 4: Sale actually has the slightly better matchup numbers over Yamamoto,
• 35:38
  Speaker 4: but the money's coming in on LA, I think because
• 35:40
  Speaker 4: they're trying to avoid the sweep here. Yamamoto is the
• 35:43
  Speaker 4: younger pitcher, so there may be a little bit extra
• 35:46
  Speaker 4: upside there. 55% of the tickets, 89% of the cash
• 35:49
  Speaker 4: on the Dodgers, and you're getting them as an underdog,
• 35:53
  Speaker 4: so I think that's kind of part of the reason
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: why as well. The Braves are around minus 120 here.
• 35:58
  Speaker 4: Getting an underdog in a game that's supposed to be
• 36:00
  Speaker 4: a pitching duel like this, you know what I mean?
• 36:02
  Speaker 4: The it's almost like there's just by default, there's value
• 36:06
  Speaker 4: on the underdog, right? Cause it's almost a toss up
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: and like either game, either team could come out on
• 36:10
  Speaker 4: top here. Although I think if you play the Dodgers,
• 36:13
  Speaker 4: maybe you should do it first five only. But if
• 36:15
  Speaker 4: you do a first five, then are probably going to
• 36:17
  Speaker 4: be closer to about a minus one 10 price there
• 36:20
  Speaker 4: on that. It's probably like almost a pick them there. Uh,
• 36:24
  Speaker 4: but obviously Atlanta does have the better bullpen. So I
• 36:26
  Speaker 4: don't think I'd want to rely on the Dodgers bullpen
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: of the Yamamoto. He goes deep. That's one thing that
• 36:32
  Speaker 4: he does. He's kind of old school like that. He's
• 36:35
  Speaker 4: one of the pitchers. It's like him, Logan Webb, and
• 36:38
  Speaker 4: there are only a few guys out there that consistently
• 36:41
  Speaker 4: go really deep into their outings. Yamamoto is one of them.
• 36:45
  Speaker 4: You know that my thought on this was to play
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: the under, obviously. I would agree, this is an under game.
• 36:50
  Speaker 4: 68% of tickets, 72% of the cash on the over,
• 36:54
  Speaker 4: but I would play the under. The problem is, as
• 36:56
  Speaker 4: soon as the number came out at seven, this number
• 36:58
  Speaker 4: got slammed, and it's been six and a half, basically,
• 37:01
  Speaker 4: the whole time. I don't think I want to do it,
• 37:04
  Speaker 4: even though I discussed it yesterday in that game that
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: I did play the under, where there was a seven available.
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: And it still went under six and a half, too.
• 37:13
  Speaker 4: professionals will tell you there are the stats out there.
• 37:17
  Speaker 4: If you blindly play under 6.5 in Major League Baseball,
• 37:21
  Speaker 4: you come out on top. You actually profit slightly by
• 37:24
  Speaker 4: blindly playing the under 6.5. So that is just a
• 37:29
  Speaker 4: true statistic. I don't like doing it, though, because that's
• 37:33
  Speaker 4: not my game. I'm not bulk firing on every under 6.5.
• 37:36
  Speaker 4: You know what I mean? That's not how I do this.
• 37:39
  Speaker 4: I want the matchup to be there. The matchup is
• 37:41
  Speaker 4: there for this one, though. I still don't want to
• 37:45
  Speaker 4: do it. I mean, I don't know. Maybe it's just
• 37:46
  Speaker 4: not in my nature, but naughty by nature.
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: No.
• 37:50
  Speaker 4: I just... I am.
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: No.
• 37:53
  Speaker 4: I just... I don't know, man. I want to get
• 37:55
  Speaker 4: that key number seven. If you're going to play the game,
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: I would still recommend playing the game under the six
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: and a half. I think that is still the best
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: way to play this game. It really looks like an
• 38:05
  Speaker 4: under to me. Both bullpens are, I think, good enough,
• 38:07
  Speaker 4: plus Yamamoto with his tendency to go deep into starts. Yeah,
• 38:11
  Speaker 4: it looks... like a clear pitching duel to me here.
• 38:14
  Speaker 4: So that is what I would do if I was
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: going to play that game. And you know what that means?
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: It means the last game is my only play. I
• 38:26
  Speaker 4: don't know if I'm predictable, but maybe people couldn't predict this.
• 38:29
  Speaker 4: We're going to take Arizona-San Francisco over the eight here.
• 38:32
  Speaker 4: I think the pitching is kind of ugly in this one, man.
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: So I think we're going to get some runs here,
• 38:38
  Speaker 4: even though I know it's San Francisco. It's a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Whatever.
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: This is a new series, so this is the only
• 38:45
  Speaker 4: game today that's the start of a new series. San
• 38:47
  Speaker 4: Francisco is staying at home. They just lost to the
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: Reds yesterday, and they had a high-scoring game, and you
• 38:52
  Speaker 4: know what that means. San Francisco used a lot of
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: their bullpens. That's going to factor into this over. I
• 38:58
  Speaker 4: don't like their bullpen anyway. I don't really love either bullpen.
• 39:01
  Speaker 4: I think they're both vulnerable bullpens, so I think that
• 39:03
  Speaker 4: helps us out with the over here. But San Francisco
• 39:06
  Speaker 4: also used a lot of relief pitchers yesterday. They used five,
• 39:11
  Speaker 4: so this is definitely a fadable bullpen, and their rest
• 39:13
  Speaker 4: situation is really not good recently. Arizona's rest situation is
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: pretty good. They only used two guys yesterday, but I
• 39:21
  Speaker 4: don't love their bullpen, so I'll fade both bullpens here.
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: Arizona is ranked eighth out of the bullpen, whatever, but
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: their ERA is above four, so they're not, like, San Francisco,
• 39:32
  Speaker 4: 24th out of the bullpen, not good, plus they're totally unrested,
• 39:36
  Speaker 4: but I think the bullpens might have to come into
• 39:39
  Speaker 4: this game early as well, and you know when I
• 39:42
  Speaker 4: play overs, it's mostly based on the starting pitching, and
• 39:45
  Speaker 4: if the starting pitching gets knocked out, the bullpens have
• 39:47
  Speaker 4: to come in early, and I think that kind of
• 39:50
  Speaker 4: any edge that a bullpen might have. On the Arizona side,
• 39:53
  Speaker 4: they just beat the Cubs. I think they could be
• 39:55
  Speaker 4: in letdown mode here. Sometimes that does affect the hitting,
• 39:59
  Speaker 4: but I don't know. They're only having to travel from
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: Arizona to San Francisco here. They're starting a road trip,
• 40:05
  Speaker 4: and usually starting a road trip is actually a focus spot.
• 40:08
  Speaker 4: But Arizona, after beating the Cubs, could actually be in
• 40:11
  Speaker 4: a letdown mode here as far as the side is concerned.
• 40:15
  Speaker 4: Arizona's trying to make the playoffs, though, so as far
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: as the side... Arizona is going to be the team
• 40:20
  Speaker 4: with more motivation because they're in the playoff race here.
• 40:23
  Speaker 4: San Francisco is out of it. But San Francisco, they're
• 40:26
  Speaker 4: not going to overlook Arizona either, in my opinion, because
• 40:29
  Speaker 4: this is a divisional matchup. And San Francisco has the
• 40:32
  Speaker 4: ability to play spoiler here against one of their divisional foes.
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: So I think San Francisco will show up as well.
• 40:39
  Speaker 4: Jose Cabrera is getting the start for Arizona. And I
• 40:43
  Speaker 4: think he's a fade, dude. He's a young guy. But
• 40:45
  Speaker 4: if you look at what he's done in the minors
• 40:47
  Speaker 4: this year in AAA, his numbers are bad. AAA like
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: he has an ERA over five in AAA this year
• 40:53
  Speaker 4: so even though he might have decent stuff like if
• 40:56
  Speaker 4: you're not even able to do damage in AAA you're
• 41:00
  Speaker 4: not going to do that well in the majors and
• 41:01
  Speaker 4: he's pitched in the majors a little bit this year
• 41:04
  Speaker 4: and it did not go well 5.6 ERA 1.53 whip
• 41:08
  Speaker 4: that is not good he was really bad in his
• 41:11
  Speaker 4: road performances 7.71 road ERA and He had one pretty
• 41:16
  Speaker 4: good start when he first came up against Minnesota, and
• 41:18
  Speaker 4: since then, not good at all. He's actually kind of
• 41:22
  Speaker 4: gotten worse in every start. Had to face Tampa Bay, Milwaukee,
• 41:26
  Speaker 4: and then San Diego. And San Diego, not really that
• 41:29
  Speaker 4: great of an offense. They've been better recently, but he
• 41:31
  Speaker 4: didn't do well in any of those outings. His numbers
• 41:34
  Speaker 4: are just not really good. He's too hittable here. His
• 41:37
  Speaker 4: walk rate's kind of high. His strikeout rate's pretty low.
• 41:40
  Speaker 4: None of those numbers are good. I know it's a
• 41:43
  Speaker 4: very small sample size, but the strikeout walk number's bad.
• 41:46
  Speaker 4: Strikeout per nine is bad. Like I said, his numbers
• 41:48
  Speaker 4: in AAA are bad. Even though I think he has
• 41:51
  Speaker 4: a decent fastball and stuff, I don't know what there
• 41:54
  Speaker 4: is to really like. I think we got to expect
• 41:56
  Speaker 4: that he's not really going to pitch that well here.
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: Even though I know, I forgot to show the hitting,
• 42:01
  Speaker 4: I know San Francisco's offense is bad. I've been saying that.
• 42:04
  Speaker 4: They're 20th year. The Diamondbacks have been a bit better.
• 42:06
  Speaker 4: They're 18th. tied with Philly, and they've been better recently,
• 42:10
  Speaker 4: but I still think the pitching is going to falter here. Cabrera, yeah,
• 42:14
  Speaker 4: he just has not done anything impressive here. And again,
• 42:17
  Speaker 4: if you have a 5-plus ERA and a 291 upon
• 42:20
  Speaker 4: a batting average or whatever he has in AAA, that
• 42:23
  Speaker 4: is not good. That's not a good sign. Like, he's
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: too hittable in AAA. His walks aren't really that good.
• 42:28
  Speaker 4: There's nothing alike, and Landon Raup is on the other side.
• 42:31
  Speaker 4: He was supposed to pitch yesterday. San Francisco swapped him
• 42:34
  Speaker 4: out with Logan Webb yesterday, I'm pretty sure, and Webb
• 42:37
  Speaker 4: did not do well. So I don't know what that
• 42:39
  Speaker 4: was about for San Francisco, but Raup is going to
• 42:42
  Speaker 4: get this start. He's a mediocre pitcher, 4.34 ERA, 1.31 WIP.
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: He's a little bit better at home, 4.22 home ERA,
• 42:51
  Speaker 4: but his problem is the walks. He's insanely walk-heavy, as
• 42:54
  Speaker 4: I pointed out yesterday. 16-16 strikeout walk ratio this month.
• 42:59
  Speaker 4: San Francisco's lost his last six starts. Things are not
• 43:03
  Speaker 4: going well here. He's not pitching well right now. He's
• 43:05
  Speaker 4: not going deep into outings, so you might have to
• 43:08
  Speaker 4: get a lot of San Francisco's already overworked bullpen into
• 43:11
  Speaker 4: this thing, which will help us with the over most likely.
• 43:15
  Speaker 4: He's got a low hit rate, so Ralph is hard
• 43:17
  Speaker 4: to hit, but his walk rate is ridiculously bad. His
• 43:19
  Speaker 4: strikeout rate is actually pretty good. He'd be good if
• 43:23
  Speaker 4: he didn't walk people, but he does. He's got a
• 43:26
  Speaker 4: pretty bad strikeout walk ratio because of all the walks.
• 43:28
  Speaker 4: His strikeout per nine is all right, but his walk
• 43:31
  Speaker 4: numbers are really bad, and they should have let Ralph pitch. Dude,
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: why would they not let Ralph pitch yesterday when Cincinnati,
• 43:38
  Speaker 4: who they played yesterday, was 0 for 26 lifetime off him?
• 43:42
  Speaker 4: You know what? Fire San Francisco's manager. I could manage
• 43:45
  Speaker 4: this team better. I would have had Ralph pitch. Just
• 43:47
  Speaker 4: face Cincinnati yesterday. I know San Francisco's done for the season,
• 43:51
  Speaker 4: but still. You want to win games, Raupp has great
• 43:54
  Speaker 4: numbers against Cincinnati in a small sample size. Oh no,
• 43:58
  Speaker 4: let's push him back and let him face the Diamondbacks,
• 44:00
  Speaker 4: who have a. 333 average and. 985 OPS against them.
• 44:05
  Speaker 4: What the fuck are you doing, man? He has great
• 44:07
  Speaker 4: numbers against Cincinnati, so let's not have him pitch against
• 44:10
  Speaker 4: them and have him pitch against Arizona, who smashes him.
• 44:14
  Speaker 4: And those numbers are in 57 career at-bats, 12-7 strikeout
• 44:17
  Speaker 4: walk ratio. These numbers are bad across the board. So
• 44:20
  Speaker 4: I think we're going to get runs in this one.
• 44:23
  Speaker 4: Let's do it. Let's play the over in San Francisco,
• 44:26
  Speaker 4: Arizona here. The money seems to agree with me here.
• 44:30
  Speaker 4: 70% of tickets, 93% of the cash on this over.
• 44:34
  Speaker 4: Reasonable total, I think, at 8%. it might be eight
• 44:38
  Speaker 4: between eight, eight and a half now, but I don't know.
• 44:40
  Speaker 4: I mean, find the best number. There's not much of
• 44:42
  Speaker 4: a difference between eight, eight and a half. I prefer
• 44:44
  Speaker 4: the eight. Just of course I found it at minus
• 44:47
  Speaker 4: one Oh five. So that was, that number was, that
• 44:49
  Speaker 4: was at DK. I'm pretty sure that was just widely available,
• 44:53
  Speaker 4: but it looks like the number's gone up a little bit.
• 44:55
  Speaker 4: And sometimes that happens. So I started doing the show
• 44:57
  Speaker 4: and I'm being, I'm being stalked, right? Like as soon
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: as I enter my play here as a banner, the
• 45:04
  Speaker 4: market moves on it, man. That's how much sway I
• 45:07
  Speaker 4: have in the market. Anyway, yeah, so that's the play,
• 45:11
  Speaker 4: the over. As far as the side here, the money
• 45:13
  Speaker 4: is actually backing Arizona. 58% of tickets, 73% of the
• 45:17
  Speaker 4: cash on them. They're like a slight favorite. It's like
• 45:20
  Speaker 4: a pick-em price. If you're going to play Arizona, I
• 45:24
  Speaker 4: think you could go full game with it. They should
• 45:26
  Speaker 4: have the bullpen advantage here, but I don't trust Cabrera.
• 45:30
  Speaker 4: I don't really want to do it, although Arizona does
• 45:32
  Speaker 4: have the motivational edges here. I worry about the letdown
• 45:35
  Speaker 4: off of beating the Cubs too, but you know Arizona,
• 45:38
  Speaker 4: they're in the middle of this playoff race here, and
• 45:40
  Speaker 4: San Francisco is not. However, everybody kind of knows that, right?
• 45:43
  Speaker 4: So when you're in kind of a must-win like Arizona is,
• 45:46
  Speaker 4: a lot of times you have to pay more. It's
• 45:48
  Speaker 4: just built into the line. So whatever. But yes, the
• 45:52
  Speaker 4: over in that game is my only play of the day.
• 45:55
  Speaker 4: I'll be right back. I'll talk WNBA, where I do
• 45:58
  Speaker 4: not have a play today, and NFL preseason because it's Thursday,
• 46:02
  Speaker 4: so I'll be back in a second to talk about that. Yep. Inside,
• 46:12
  Speaker 4: I want to kill myself. We are on an 0-7
• 46:16
  Speaker 4: run over the last two days. After tonight, it was
• 46:18
  Speaker 4: just complete bullshit. So that's how I'm going to start
• 46:21
  Speaker 4: off this show. Horrible Sunday. 1-5. I don't even know
• 46:25
  Speaker 4: what to tell you about that. I just don't want
• 46:28
  Speaker 4: to do this anymore. I have never seen anything like this, man.
• 46:31
  Speaker 4: With the slump continuing, two straight losses, not a good
• 46:36
  Speaker 4: day at all, 0-4, that is have not had a
• 46:40
  Speaker 4: good season, man, with weekends. Slump, then I'm on, and
• 46:45
  Speaker 4: the slump continues. I've reached a new peak, actually. I'm
• 46:49
  Speaker 4: going to burn my Bruins hat, man. I don't know
• 46:52
  Speaker 4: what is going on with the Bruins. March 8th, is
• 46:55
  Speaker 4: that what it is? I don't even know. It's March 9th,
• 46:58
  Speaker 4: I think. Who even knows, man? I don't know what
• 47:01
  Speaker 4: day it is anymore. I don't even know what day
• 47:04
  Speaker 4: it is anymore, man. Back with you after... The worst
• 47:07
  Speaker 4: day that I could possibly have back with you, as
• 47:10
  Speaker 4: I always am. Until I die, at least. 0-2 yesterday.
• 47:15
  Speaker 4: And yesterday did not go well for me.
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: 0-5.
• 47:19
  Speaker 4: The worst month that I've ever had in my 18
• 47:22
  Speaker 4: years doing this. I don't know what to even tell
• 47:24
  Speaker 4: you about this anymore. The slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 47:33
  Speaker 4: I don't even know what I should do at this
• 47:35
  Speaker 4: point other than potentially end it all.
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 47:44
  Speaker 4: By the way, if you listen to yesterday's show, I
• 47:46
  Speaker 4: belch right at the beginning. I don't know if people
• 47:48
  Speaker 4: caught that. It's a little, little Easter egg in there.
• 47:51
  Speaker 4: Did I do it intentionally? Uh, no. Uh, didn't even
• 47:55
  Speaker 4: think it got picked up. I thought the show hadn't
• 47:56
  Speaker 4: actually begun yet, but that's awesome. Uh, Maybe get some
• 48:00
  Speaker 4: more views here. Listen to this guy. This sports guy
• 48:04
  Speaker 4: belched at the beginning of his show.
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 48:07
  Speaker 4: WNBA. We have two games here. First one is Golden State.
• 48:11
  Speaker 4: They're on a back-to-back. And this is part of the
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: reason why I liked fading them yesterday because they have
• 48:16
  Speaker 4: a big game on Amazon Prime here today against New York.
• 48:19
  Speaker 4: And now Golden State's on a back-to-back. Do I want
• 48:22
  Speaker 4: to play New York here, though? I don't really want to.
• 48:26
  Speaker 3: I mean.
• 48:27
  Speaker 4: New York's coming off a big win over Indiana and
• 48:29
  Speaker 4: Indiana was kind of a thorn in their side. Like
• 48:32
  Speaker 4: New York had lost a couple of games really bad
• 48:34
  Speaker 4: to Indiana. So that was a big win for them
• 48:37
  Speaker 4: beating Indiana. The good thing for New York here is
• 48:39
  Speaker 4: they have a huge rest edge here. Although, you know,
• 48:41
  Speaker 4: that's going to be factored into the line. And that's
• 48:43
  Speaker 4: why New York is favored by like three points in
• 48:45
  Speaker 4: this game. They would not be favored by three points.
• 48:49
  Speaker 4: without this rest edge, but New York has not played
• 48:51
  Speaker 4: since Saturday. So they have a huge rest advantage here,
• 48:55
  Speaker 4: and I don't think they're going to overlook Golden State.
• 48:57
  Speaker 4: In fact, I believe they've lost twice to Golden State
• 48:59
  Speaker 4: this year. They lost in Golden State by nine, and
• 49:03
  Speaker 4: here at home they lost by 17 to them really
• 49:07
  Speaker 4: early in the season. So I think New York is
• 49:09
  Speaker 4: going to show up for this. Golden State, obviously the
• 49:12
  Speaker 4: big disadvantage for them here is the rest, lack of
• 49:15
  Speaker 4: rest for them because they played yesterday. It was an
• 49:18
  Speaker 4: easy win for them, though, that was the thing again
• 49:20
  Speaker 4: part of the reason why I liked Connecticut Golden State
• 49:22
  Speaker 4: had a big lead and they pulled some of their
• 49:24
  Speaker 4: starters at the end I'm pretty sure so they had
• 49:27
  Speaker 4: to get them some rest for this game here but
• 49:29
  Speaker 4: this is still a bad spot I mean look at
• 49:31
  Speaker 4: the travel that Golden State is doing here this is
• 49:34
  Speaker 4: a third game in four days all in different cities
• 49:37
  Speaker 4: it's a fourth game in Eight days, I think, is
• 49:40
  Speaker 4: what this is, all in different cities. A fifth game
• 49:42
  Speaker 4: in 10 days, all in different cities. And it's actually a,
• 49:46
  Speaker 4: what is this, a sixth game in 12 days as well,
• 49:49
  Speaker 4: although the first two were at home. Golden State is
• 49:52
  Speaker 4: at a huge rest disadvantage here. It is factored into
• 49:56
  Speaker 4: the line. I don't love New York coming off that
• 49:58
  Speaker 4: big win over Indiana. And I think Golden State is
• 50:01
  Speaker 4: the better team, and they're going to be an underdog here.
• 50:04
  Speaker 4: Golden State is pretty good on the road, although New
• 50:07
  Speaker 4: York is good at home. New York is better at home.
• 50:10
  Speaker 4: I think the Western Conference is just stronger than the
• 50:12
  Speaker 4: Eastern Conference. I'm going to lean New York, but I
• 50:16
  Speaker 4: don't think the price is really great here. They opened 1.5,
• 50:19
  Speaker 4: and they're already up to 3.5, so some money did
• 50:22
  Speaker 4: come in that way. 81% of tickets, 85% of the
• 50:25
  Speaker 4: cash on New York. It's a low total in the 160s,
• 50:28
  Speaker 4: so the Golden State effect, I guess, with their defense...
• 50:32
  Speaker 4: affecting this total. Both totals in the WNBA today are
• 50:35
  Speaker 4: quite low because Golden State and Washington are playing in
• 50:39
  Speaker 4: both games, so those are two good defenses. Yeah, I'm
• 50:44
  Speaker 4: going to lean towards laying it with New York, but
• 50:48
  Speaker 4: I hesitate to do it, man, because I don't love
• 50:50
  Speaker 4: the spot for them. If you're playing them, you're really
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: just playing on the rest edge, and it is definitely
• 50:54
  Speaker 4: factored into the line. Like, This line, Golden State might
• 50:58
  Speaker 4: actually be favored if these teams had the same rest here,
• 51:03
  Speaker 4: even though it's in New York. So do what you
• 51:06
  Speaker 4: want with that info. I'll slightly lean to New York
• 51:09
  Speaker 4: in that one with the rest edge. I think the
• 51:11
  Speaker 4: spot is just a little bit better for them, and
• 51:14
  Speaker 4: it's a little bit of double revenge there. But Golden
• 51:16
  Speaker 4: State does not have a bigger game up next, though,
• 51:18
  Speaker 4: and I thought they'd be kind of focused on this. However,
• 51:21
  Speaker 4: the other thing I will point out, though, these– isolated
• 51:24
  Speaker 4: games like this Amazon Prime the home team usually does
• 51:27
  Speaker 4: step it up for those games so the home team
• 51:29
  Speaker 4: I think it's a little bit of a boost in
• 51:31
  Speaker 4: games like this and the other game is Washington Phoenix
• 51:34
  Speaker 4: which is a game where these two teams just played
• 51:37
  Speaker 4: the other day and I liked Phoenix in that one
• 51:40
  Speaker 4: and it did not happen Washington won the game by
• 51:43
  Speaker 4: 10 Phoenix has lost three games in a row here
• 51:47
  Speaker 4: Washington's favored by more in this game so it's interesting
• 51:50
  Speaker 4: Washington went off as a two and a half point
• 51:52
  Speaker 4: favorite in that previous game. And I thought it looked
• 51:54
  Speaker 4: way too easy to play Washington, right? Now they're like
• 51:57
  Speaker 4: a three and a half, four point favorite in this game.
• 51:59
  Speaker 4: And I still think it looks way too easy to
• 52:01
  Speaker 4: play Washington. The team with the better record here, nobody's
• 52:05
  Speaker 4: really going to want Phoenix here. Now, Kelsey Plum is
• 52:09
  Speaker 4: injured and I don't know if she's playing here. And
• 52:11
  Speaker 4: I think that's part of the reason why this line
• 52:12
  Speaker 4: is higher. than it was in the prior game. Some
• 52:15
  Speaker 4: of it might just be because of the results. Some
• 52:17
  Speaker 4: of it might just be because Washington won the game
• 52:19
  Speaker 4: by double digits, so the oddsmakers just shipped the line.
• 52:22
  Speaker 4: But that's why the zigzag works, you know what I mean?
• 52:24
  Speaker 4: When you have the same teams playing each other twice
• 52:27
  Speaker 4: in a row, it's like in the NBA playoffs, we
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: play angles like this. A lot of times, whatever happened
• 52:33
  Speaker 4: in that other game goes back in the opposite direction.
• 52:36
  Speaker 4: If we saw some outliers in that first game, a
• 52:38
  Speaker 4: lot of times you get value in the second game
• 52:41
  Speaker 4: because the line just shifts towards the result of the
• 52:43
  Speaker 4: first game, even if that's the only thing that's shifting
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: the line, but the odds makers have gone on to it,
• 52:50
  Speaker 4: and a lot of times they will not move the
• 52:52
  Speaker 4: line like that. We have to see if Plum playing.
• 52:55
  Speaker 4: I have no idea, to be honest. She is questionable
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: right now. She did play in the last game, but
• 53:00
  Speaker 4: she only played 17 minutes. It looks like she's Kind
• 53:03
  Speaker 4: of dealing with some injuries here. Actually, she had just
• 53:06
  Speaker 4: come back, it looks like. She hadn't played since the 9th,
• 53:09
  Speaker 4: so the last two games she played were both against Washington. Actually,
• 53:14
  Speaker 4: one of them must have been, maybe she was still
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: on LA in that previous one. No, she wasn't. She
• 53:19
  Speaker 4: was on Phoenix by then. I don't know. I don't
• 53:20
  Speaker 4: know what the deal is there. Anyway, Plum is questionable.
• 53:26
  Speaker 4: You'd like her to play here, but I'm going to
• 53:28
  Speaker 4: lean Phoenix either way here. I think you're getting a
• 53:30
  Speaker 4: little bit of extra line value here. If Plum is hurt,
• 53:33
  Speaker 4: you know, it's an injured player theory spot, right? So
• 53:36
  Speaker 4: when the star player goes down, you get extra value
• 53:39
  Speaker 4: on that team usually because the line overreacts to that
• 53:43
  Speaker 4: star player being out, and the team a lot of
• 53:45
  Speaker 4: times will step up their level of performance to adjust
• 53:49
  Speaker 4: to that. So I like Phoenix for that reason as well.
• 53:52
  Speaker 4: Washington might just overlook them here because Washington just beat
• 53:55
  Speaker 4: them Washington's beaten Phoenix the last two times they played them,
• 54:00
  Speaker 4: both times with Plum in the lineup, although she didn't
• 54:02
  Speaker 4: play many minutes in either. I think she got hurt
• 54:04
  Speaker 4: in both games, actually. So now Washington's coming off of that.
• 54:08
  Speaker 4: Washington is playing L.A. tomorrow. I don't know that that's
• 54:11
  Speaker 4: really a look-ahead, though. L.A. sucks, and they already beat L.A. recently,
• 54:15
  Speaker 4: so I don't know if that's really a look-ahead. But
• 54:17
  Speaker 4: I don't see them really... paying that much attention to
• 54:20
  Speaker 4: Phoenix here. And Phoenix has the adjustments to make. That's
• 54:23
  Speaker 4: the other reason why the zigzag kind of works is
• 54:26
  Speaker 4: whatever happened in that first game, the team that won,
• 54:28
  Speaker 4: they have nothing to change because everything worked. The team
• 54:30
  Speaker 4: that lost, they have to change some things, and they
• 54:33
  Speaker 4: usually do. And it was a bit of an outlier.
• 54:35
  Speaker 4: The three-point percentage was a big-time outlier in this game.
• 54:39
  Speaker 4: Phoenix only shot 18% from three in this game, and
• 54:42
  Speaker 4: Washington shot 43%. Those numbers should come back to some
• 54:46
  Speaker 4: sort of mean here, man. I don't think Washington's known
• 54:50
  Speaker 4: as really that good of a shooting team, and they
• 54:52
  Speaker 4: were a plus 18 from three-point range in that one,
• 54:55
  Speaker 4: so that is a bit of an outlier there. Washington
• 54:58
  Speaker 4: did win the rebound battle, though, by quite a bit,
• 55:00
  Speaker 4: so that would concern me a little bit with Phoenix.
• 55:03
  Speaker 4: Phoenix is not really the better team here. I mean,
• 55:05
  Speaker 4: they're definitely not. But it still looks too easy to
• 55:08
  Speaker 4: play Washington. It is still a zigzag. I think there
• 55:11
  Speaker 4: is some value built in here. If you're taking the
• 55:14
  Speaker 4: Phoenix side, that's how I would play it. I would
• 55:16
  Speaker 4: take the 4.5 with Phoenix in this one if I
• 55:18
  Speaker 4: was going to play it. I'm not going to. 88%
• 55:20
  Speaker 4: of tickets, 91% of the cash on Washington. They went
• 55:25
  Speaker 4: up from 2.5 to 4, 4.5. I think that does
• 55:28
  Speaker 4: actually kind of indicate that maybe Plum isn't going to
• 55:31
  Speaker 4: play in this game. But if she does, here's the thing.
• 55:33
  Speaker 4: If you take Washington at plus four, four and a half,
• 55:36
  Speaker 4: Plum does play, that line is going to come back
• 55:38
  Speaker 4: down to like two. So you're going to have a
• 55:39
  Speaker 4: good bet. If you take it at four and a
• 55:41
  Speaker 4: half and she does come back, you'll still have a
• 55:44
  Speaker 4: good number on the game. You know what I mean? So, yeah,
• 55:48
  Speaker 4: that's what I would do in that one. All right.
• 55:52
  Speaker 4: By the way, FCS football is starting. I don't do
• 55:54
  Speaker 4: anything with FCS, but there's a lot of FCS football tonight.
• 55:58
  Speaker 4: So people can enjoy that, I guess. You guys can
• 56:01
  Speaker 4: enjoy watching. What was the game I made fun of
• 56:04
  Speaker 4: on Twitter? I don't even think it's on the board.
• 56:06
  Speaker 4: I don't think you can bet it. You can bet
• 56:07
  Speaker 4: all these division one games though. It was one, it
• 56:10
  Speaker 4: was Hampton against some non division one team, Virginia Lynchburg
• 56:13
  Speaker 4: or something. I was like, who's betting that? Um, hilarious though.
• 56:16
  Speaker 4: You can bet all the division one games though here. Uh,
• 56:20
  Speaker 4: this is FCS with the lower tier of division one.
• 56:22
  Speaker 4: So yeah, you guys can go bet Mercyhurst against Youngstown state, man. Um,
• 56:28
  Speaker 4: Youngstown state 29 and a half point favorite. Um, Yeah,
• 56:32
  Speaker 4: I mean, it's ridiculous. And you don't even get market
• 56:35
  Speaker 4: percentages on this, but you can see the numbers. You
• 56:37
  Speaker 4: can see the line movement here. All right. Gary, well,
• 56:43
  Speaker 4: first of all, the Braves got really lucky in the
• 56:45
  Speaker 4: game prior to that where the Dodgers had a leadoff
• 56:49
  Speaker 4: triple by Otani in that final inning and didn't even
• 56:52
  Speaker 4: score him. Yesterday, I don't know what to tell you.
• 56:55
  Speaker 4: I did not agree with... I said the over yesterday
• 56:57
  Speaker 4: and the over hit. I didn't have a great read
• 56:59
  Speaker 4: on the side But congratulations. You beat Roki Sasaki. Great. Okay.
• 57:05
  Speaker 4: The Dodgers are better than the Braves still, so good
• 57:09
  Speaker 4: luck in the playoffs. You're not going to get past
• 57:12
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers in a playoff series. All right. And I
• 57:18
  Speaker 4: fucking hate the Dodgers, so I don't really want to
• 57:20
  Speaker 4: say that, but it's true. NFL preseason here. This is
• 57:25
  Speaker 4: the final week of preseason, and then teams are going
• 57:27
  Speaker 4: to have a little bit of time off, I believe.
• 57:30
  Speaker 4: for the most part here. What you have to really
• 57:32
  Speaker 4: gauge here is what are these teams going to do?
• 57:34
  Speaker 4: So are the starters going to play is one question.
• 57:38
  Speaker 4: I think usually the answer is no. So the way
• 57:41
  Speaker 4: that this works now with the three preseason games is
• 57:44
  Speaker 4: usually the starters play a little bit in the second game,
• 57:47
  Speaker 4: and that's kind of the dress rehearsal. They play like
• 57:50
  Speaker 4: the first series or whatever, and then they don't play again.
• 57:53
  Speaker 4: So I think generally we're not going to see any
• 57:55
  Speaker 4: of the starters, like the starting quarterbacks, I mean, or
• 57:57
  Speaker 4: anything like that. We're not going to see them in
• 57:59
  Speaker 4: these games. First game is Pittsburgh Buffalo. I don't think
• 58:02
  Speaker 4: either team has played their starting quarterback at all in
• 58:05
  Speaker 4: the preseason, but I don't think they're going to in
• 58:07
  Speaker 4: this game either. And there aren't really any crazy travel
• 58:10
  Speaker 4: spots going on here either, by the way. So I
• 58:12
  Speaker 4: think the biggest one is Vegas returning from Houston. So
• 58:16
  Speaker 4: it's like, who really gives a shit? Every other team
• 58:19
  Speaker 4: is kind of staying in their general area. This game's
• 58:24
  Speaker 4: on NFL Network. What this game is going to come
• 58:27
  Speaker 4: down to, I think, is... like the motivation and what
• 58:32
  Speaker 4: are these teams going to, like what are they trying
• 58:34
  Speaker 4: to do in game three here, right? So generally game
• 58:37
  Speaker 4: three of the preseason, which is the last game now,
• 58:40
  Speaker 4: it's to figure out the final roster cuts. You know
• 58:42
  Speaker 4: what I mean? So a lot of these guys that
• 58:44
  Speaker 4: are on the cusp of making the team, they get
• 58:47
  Speaker 4: played in these games. So you see what they have,
• 58:49
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean? Or if a team hasn't
• 58:51
  Speaker 4: decided on like who their backup quarterback is yet or
• 58:54
  Speaker 4: something like that, that could be decided in this game.
• 58:57
  Speaker 4: In this game, Buffalo's a three-point favorite here. Josh Allen
• 59:01
  Speaker 4: is definitely not going to play. They've already announced that.
• 59:03
  Speaker 4: I don't think he's played in preseason at all. He
• 59:06
  Speaker 4: doesn't really need to, although he might come into the
• 59:08
  Speaker 4: season a little bit cold, but that means Buffalo. is
• 59:10
  Speaker 4: going to get, it's going to be all Kyle Allen
• 59:12
  Speaker 4: and Shane Bookley, however you pronounce his name. To me,
• 59:17
  Speaker 4: that's not great. I mean, Buffalo's one There are other
• 59:20
  Speaker 4: preseason games so far, but I still don't like that.
• 59:23
  Speaker 4: It looks like they're trying to win, and that's because
• 59:25
  Speaker 4: they have a new coach here. Both of these teams
• 59:28
  Speaker 4: have new coaches, so that's the thing. Both of these
• 59:30
  Speaker 4: teams have been trying to win in preseason. So I
• 59:33
  Speaker 4: think the motivation will be there, but I don't love
• 59:36
  Speaker 4: the Allen and Bookley combination as much as I like
• 59:39
  Speaker 4: what I think Pittsburgh is going to be trying to
• 59:41
  Speaker 4: do here. Pittsburgh is trying to see what they have
• 59:43
  Speaker 4: with these quarterbacks. So Pittsburgh is 1-1 now. in the preseason,
• 59:48
  Speaker 4: and they're coming off a bad loss to the Jets.
• 59:50
  Speaker 4: They lost 17 to nothing, so with Pittsburgh also having
• 59:54
  Speaker 4: a new coach here, I think Pittsburgh might actually show
• 59:56
  Speaker 4: up with a better effort here. Pittsburgh looked good in
• 59:59
  Speaker 4: their first preseason game against... The Packers and Will Howard
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 4: looked good in that game. Drew Aller looked good in
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 4: that game. Last game, neither of them looked good. Actually,
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 4: Howard was okay. Well, no, he wasn't. He threw two picks.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 4: Never mind. Drew Aller was really bad, though. He was
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 4: just totally off, so that's not good. After Pittsburgh was
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 4: raving about him. However, I think I like Pittsburgh's quarterback
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 4: rotation here better with those guys in here. Those guys
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 4: might have some talent here. They also have Mason Rudolph,
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 4: who is an experienced quarterback as well. He's probably going
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 4: to be in the mix a little bit here too.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 4: But Howard and Aller, I think they're going to be
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 4: out there in this game, see what they got, you
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 4: know what I mean? Pittsburgh, by the way, we'll see
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 4: what happens. Pittsburgh has definitely improved their running back situation
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 4: by adding Rico Dowdle, who was on my fantasy team
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 4: last year. That guy's good, man. Anyway, I like Pittsburgh
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 4: in this game if I was going to play it,
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 4: but I don't do the preseason, but I think the
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 4: money agrees with me on this. Yeah, 80% of tickets,
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 4: only 68% of the cash on Buffalo. Buffalo's a three-point favorite.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 4: The public kind of just goes with who they think
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 4: is the better team, and yeah, Buffalo is the better team.
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 4: We know this, but this is preseason, man, and I
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 4: think Pittsburgh is going to have a little bit more
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 4: motivation after that ugly loss, and they want to still
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 4: see what they have with these young quarterbacks. Buffalo does
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 4: not have any young quarterbacks they're trying to figure out
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 4: like so Buffalo might just wind up going a little
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 4: bit more vanilla here in this game so I would
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 4: lean towards taking the points with Pittsburgh the total is
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 4: really low too it's the lowest total out of all
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 4: these low totals all the totals are in the 30s
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 4: again it's preseason the totals tend to be low although
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 4: these games have been higher scoring the last few years
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 4: than they were in the past the line the lines
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 4: have adjusted to that believe it or not like these
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 4: lines used to be like in the high 20s to
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 4: some extent I don't really have a great feel for
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 4: the totals in these games necessarily, though, unless it's like
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 4: a situation where I think both teams might go vanilla
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 4: or something or like try out a bunch of things. Uh-huh.
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 4: 2021 was some bullshit like COVID year. I don't know. Dude, yeah,
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 4: are the Dodgers right now the same team that they
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 4: were in 2021? The Dodgers, look at their fucking starting rotation.
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 4: It's Glasnow, Snell, Otani, Yamamoto. Like, they have so many, Skubal,
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 4: they have so many good starters that they don't even
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 4: know who they're going to even have in their starting rotation. Like,
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers are probably going to three-peat, man, even though
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 4: it's hard to, really hard to do that in baseball.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 4: I just don't, who's going to beat them? I mean,
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 4: maybe Milwaukee, Milwaukee, I think has the best chance to
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 4: do it because Milwaukee keeps winning in LA, but Milwaukee
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 4: is going to be a less experienced team. Like this
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 4: Dodgers rotation, not only are they good, but they're all,
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 4: all of them are experienced. So yeah, I mean, they're
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 4: going to be extremely hard to beat.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 4: Uh, and the national league is just very competitive in general. Um,
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 4: and if the Braves have to play San Diego, you
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 4: know how that goes. Uh, Don't the Braves always lose
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 4: to San Diego in the playoffs? So if that happens,
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 4: good luck. All right, although I don't think San Diego's
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 4: very good. They did bolster their starting rotation a little bit.
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 4: All right, New England is playing Cleveland. New England's a
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 4: two-and-a-half-point favorite. You know the public's going to be all
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 4: over New England. 91% of tickets, 88% of the cash
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 4: on them. New England's a super public side here. I
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 4: don't know if Drake May is going to get to
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 4: this game or not. I don't think he's played yet.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 4: in preseason. I could be wrong about that. Maybe he
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 4: did play in the last game. This game's on Amazon Prime,
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 4: but I would imagine he's probably not playing here. Let
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 4: me see. Did he play in the last game? New
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 4: England has won both, or no, they tied the Colts,
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 4: excuse me. Then they beat the Eagles last time out,
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 4: which was a pretty good win for them against a
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 4: solid team. Yeah, we did not have Drake May getting
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 4: into that game. Tommy DeVito wasn't good though. And Morton
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 4: looked okay, I guess. So he's kind of interesting. That's
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 4: the Patriots draft pick this year. Those guys are going
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 4: to be playing again here. So Tommy Cutlets, I don't
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 4: think he's very good, man. He's got some experience, but
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 4: he's not good. And then Morton might actually have something.
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 4: He looked good in the last game, but I don't know.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 4: We'll see. But those guys are going to be getting
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 4: the workload for New England here. Cleveland, they announced Deshaun
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 4: Watson as a starter. So I think that might kind
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 4: of piss off the backup quarterbacks here. Everybody's pissed off
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 4: about it, even though I told you. He was clearly
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 4: the better quarterback in the last game. Deshaun Watson, the
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 4: first preseason game, he didn't really do anything because they
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 4: kept the offense really vanilla with him. And by the way,
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 4: the Browns have been awful in both preseason games. They
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 4: got massacred in both games, especially last time out, which
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 4: was against the Bills. But if you look at this game,
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 4: Watson was clearly the best quarterback. No, this is the
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 4: first game. Watson was not that good in this game.
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 4: Sanders actually was a little bit better in that game.
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 4: But the most recent game I think was the Chicago
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 4: game then, right? Am I getting– yeah, I forget which
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 4: order these games are played in. Yeah, but in the
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 4: Chicago game, yeah, like clearly– When they let Watson actually
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 4: kind of do his thing, he was obviously the way
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 4: better quarterback out of the three of them. He was
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 4: the only one that didn't throw a pick. He had
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 4: more average yards per pass, more yards, higher completion percentage, whatever.
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 4: So Watson's the starter now. But we know Cleveland's going
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 4: to be using their backups here. They're going to be
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 4: using Shutterer, Sanders, and Dylan Gabriel, and Talon Green might
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 4: get into the mix again in this game too. I
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 4: think Cleveland's going to try. They've looked so bad during
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 4: the preseason. They do have a new coach, too, so
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 4: a new coach usually tries to step it up as well.
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 4: I would lean Cleveland in this game. I know it
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 4: sounds insane, and I think these quarterbacks are ass. I
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 4: really do. Cleveland has the worst quarterback room in the NFL, man.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 4: It's bad. It's really bad. And I know I thought
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 4: they would win the last preseason game. I would not
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 4: really want to have my money on this, but I
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 4: would lean towards Cleveland getting points here. at home against
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 4: a New England team that really I don't think wants
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 4: to or has to show anything at this point. Although
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 4: I could be wrong, and it is possible Drake May
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 4: does get into this game a little bit, but yeah,
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 4: other than that, I don't like New England's backup quarterbacks.
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 4: I think Cleveland, yeah, those quarterbacks are going to try
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 4: to redeem themselves, and they might be extra motivated, right?
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 4: Because things can change throughout the season, right? Even though
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 4: Watson's going to be the starter at the beginning of
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 4: the season, and I think he should be, he might
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 4: not remain in that position. You know what I mean?
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 4: So Cleveland's backups still want to do something here. All right,
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 4: San Francisco and Las Vegas. I don't know how San
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 4: Francisco is going to respond to the owner issue that
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 4: they had, Jed York, where for some reason he was
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 4: in East Palestine, Ohio, which makes no sense. That was
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 4: the town where that train derailment happened and they blew
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 4: up the train and there was this mushroom cloud of
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 4: toxic chemicals all over the place and a bunch of
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 4: people probably got mutated in the city, whatever. For some reason,
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 4: San Francisco's owner was in that city. I have no
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 4: idea why. What's the term I'm looking for? He was
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 4: procuring the services of trailer park hookers. It makes no sense, dude.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 4: So that's a distraction. I don't know what San Francisco's
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 4: going to look like in this game. Is that going
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 4: to be a distraction? Is that going to affect them here?
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man. Vegas is coming back from Houston.
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 4: Vegas had a nice win in Houston where they came
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 4: back and won, and Aiden O'Connell led that final drive
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 4: at the end and looked pretty good. Mendoza did not
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 4: look good, though. So I don't know. Vegas, we're going
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 4: to see more Mendoza here most likely. Aiden O'Connell probably
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 4: gets into the game too, but they already kind of
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 4: know what they have with them because he's been their
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 4: backup for a while. Kirk Cousins is going to be
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 4: their starter, and I don't think he's played in the preseason.
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 4: He doesn't really need to because he's so experienced. I
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 4: don't know if he's going to play in this game
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 4: or not. San Francisco did use Brock Purdy a little
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 4: bit in their last game, and they destroyed the Chargers
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 4: in their last game. So San Francisco might be feeling
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 4: a bit high on themselves as well after that. They
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 4: used Purdy in that one, so I assume they're not
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 4: using him here. So it'll be more Mac Jones. And
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 4: who else do they have? I can't remember. Mac Jones
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 4: has looked okay, I think. Let me see. And they have,
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 4: oh yeah, Curtis Rourke, but he's questionable right now. He
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 4: was the Kurt Cignetti guy who played at Ohio and
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 4: then at Indiana with Kurt Cignetti. And they do have
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 4: Adrian Martinez who was at Nebraska and Kansas State and whatever.
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 4: and kind of a dual threat quarterback. So I don't know.
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 4: We'll see what this backup quarterback rotation can do. Vegas,
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 4: you know, again, I think they're going to try to
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 4: get Mendoza some more work here because he's their quarterback
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 4: of the future. They don't want to get him hurt,
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 4: but I assume he's going to be out there. Probably
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 4: more O'Connell, and then I have no idea who Jacob
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 4: Clark is, but that's going to be your rotation there.
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 4: San Francisco might have the somewhat better rotation here. Vegas
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 4: is favored at 3-3.5, although the money's coming in at
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 4: San Francisco along with the public. 65% of tickets, 84%
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 4: of the cash at San Francisco. I kind of lead
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 4: Vegas here, man. I mean, it looks too easy to
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 4: take San Francisco, right? Like, oh my God, I'm getting
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 4: the better team with the 49ers, getting points here against
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 4: the Raiders. It looks too easy to do that. So
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 4: I would probably lead Vegas here. it looks like the
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 4: odds makers are kind of telling you that San Francisco
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 4: is probably going to have some guys not playing. We
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 4: know San Francisco has a lot of injuries right now too.
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 4: So they're going to start the season injured, I'm pretty sure,
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 4: which is not good because I like San Francisco to
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 4: kind of bounce back this season. But now with the
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 4: owner thing that's going on and whatever, I'm glad I
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 4: didn't give that out as an actual one of my
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 4: top season win totals because I did mention I like
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 4: San Francisco to go over their season win total, but
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 4: it was not one of the ones that I thought
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 4: was the absolute top. So glad I didn't put it
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 4: on there. I think it was my fifth best, and
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 4: it was one of three overs that I liked, with
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 4: Detroit being my favorite of those, and then Kansas City
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 4: I think was the other. Anyway, but I liked those
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 4: two unders better with Chicago and New England to go
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 4: under the season win totals with overperforming last year and
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 4: having easy schedules. Anyway, I would lead towards Vegas here,
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 4: but the money is coming in on San Francisco. You
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 4: could argue San Francisco's quarterback rotation might be a little
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 4: bit better here, but I don't know, man. I don't
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 4: have a great angle on that one. Out of these games,
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 4: I think maybe Pittsburgh is the best way to look.
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 4: After getting shut out in their previous game, there is
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 4: still that kind of bounce-back mentality, even if it's preseason.
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 4: You don't want to lose like that. And then we
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 4: have LA-LA, the NFL Network Game 2 late-night game. Rams-Chargers.
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 4: The Rams looked really good in their last game. They
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 4: demolished the Saints. The Rams have won both preseason games.
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 4: Sean McVay, I didn't really think, took preseason that seriously.
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 4: I mean, he doesn't really play as starters. That's what
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 4: he's known for. So I don't think Matthew Stafford is
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 4: going to get into this game. Chargers did actually use
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 4: Justin Herbert for like one series in the game against
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 4: the Saints. So I would assume he's not playing in
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 4: this game either. So I think we're going to see
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 4: backup quarterbacks in this one. Uh, the chargers did not
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 4: look good. They got destroyed by San Francisco. So just
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 4: because of that alone, that has me kind of leaning
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 4: towards the chargers here. Plus I think the chargers are
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 4: going to get up for a game against the Rams
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 4: because the chargers are always kind of the, since they
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 4: moved from San Diego, they're kind of the second team
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 4: in LA. You know what I mean? So they probably
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 4: kind of resent that they feel like the little brother
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 4: to the Rams or kind of LA's team. You know
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 4: what I mean? Even though the Rams were in San
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 4: Francisco for a while, they were originally LA. So, um,
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 4: And the Raiders actually were for a while, but the
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 4: Chargers were always San Diego until recently. So the Chargers
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 4: might get a little bit up for those reasons. Rams
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 4: might just not care as much about this game at
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 4: this point, man. Probably looking ahead to the regular season.
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 4: They've been using a lot of Stetson Bennett IV and
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 4: Ty Simpson. They do a Matthew Caldwell as well, who
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 4: I think is a young guy as well. they're still
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 4: rolling these guys out and seeing what they got with them.
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 4: And I thought Simpson was the guy who was supposed
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 4: to be the guy to take over after Stafford. And
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 4: I thought Simpson might have something there. I don't know,
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 4: but Bennett has moved ahead of him in the depth charts.
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 4: I don't know, but we're going to definitely see both
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 4: of them in this game. And that might be a
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 4: decent thing for the Rams. So that's the thing. I
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 4: think the charges might have a motivational edge here, but,
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 4: I don't really like their quarterback rotation at all, where
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 4: it's going to be basically Trey Lance, who has been
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 4: in the league for a long time. They don't really
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 4: need to see anything with him. And then DJ Ugalele,
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 4: who's been in the league for a few years at
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 4: this point, and I don't think he's very good. So
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 4: the quarterback rotation is clearly better for the Rams here.
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 4: I'm going to lean Chargers slightly, and the public is
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 4: on the Rams, but the money is also on the
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 4: Rams at plus 3.5. 64% of tickets, 86% of the
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 4: cash on the Rams. So the money is indicating on
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 4: the Rams, but you see the Rams getting 3.5 points.
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 4: Everybody's going to look that way, right? Because everybody likes
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 4: the Rams. The Rams almost won the NFC last year.
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 4: They've been good for the last handful of years. They're
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 4: considered to be the Super Bowl odds-on favorite this year.
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 4: So everybody's going to like the Rams, in my opinion.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 4: You would think the public is just going to be
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 4: on the Rams here, taking the 3.5. The public never
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 4: likes the Chargers because they play a horrible ball. and
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 4: slow the pace of the game down and whatever and
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 4: play kind of methodically and like smart football, you know
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 4: what I mean?
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 4: But yeah, I would probably slightly lean Chargers here, but
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 4: I really hate their quarterback rotation. I really do. A
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 4: regular season with Herbert in there, I'm going to like
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 4: the Chargers, and I'm probably going to have some plays
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 4: on them. But yeah, in this setup, I don't love
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 4: that quarterback rotation. Situationally, I like the Chargers. to bounce
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 4: back from that bad performance. Rams maybe not give as
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 4: much of a shit after that blowout win they just had,
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 4: but the Rams have the better quarterback rotation for the
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 4: preseason just in that we're going to see what those
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 4: guys have. You know what I mean? That's going to
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 4: do it, man. My only play of the day is
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 4: in baseball, Diamondbacks-Giants over the eight. Bad pitching, in my opinion,
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 4: in this game, so we'll take that game over. That's
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 4: my only play today. I almost skipped the board entirely today.
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 4: Sometimes it happens on a Thursday, but I like that
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 4: one just enough to put it on there. Hopefully we
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 4: stay hot and get another winning day out of it.
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 4: One play, so we either get the win or the loss,
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 4: and it's either a winning day or a losing day,
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 4: but it's only one play, so whatever. That's going to
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 4: do it. I appreciate everybody. Learn to Tote on Twitter.
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 4: Learn to Tote on Instagram. I appreciate everybody dealing with
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 4: my stubbornness and assholishness and whatever. It's... It's the draw
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 4: of the show. No. What else we got? Listen to
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 4: this show, obviously. Like, subscribe. Listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 4: But like, subscribe. And you get notified when I go live.
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 4: The NFL preview content will be coming, although I already
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 4: did some. But we'll have more upcoming. Covered in Uke
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 4: is my Uke channel on YouTube. Ukulele covers. Not Ukelele.
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 4: DJ Ukulele. Maybe I'll change my name to DJ Ukulele. Oh, dude.
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 4: That makes some sense because it's like a DJ. Yeah,
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 4: DJ Ukulele.
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 3: Hmm.
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 4: I like the Covenant Uke name, but I don't know.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 4: Maybe that could be the name of my channel, but
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 4: I can call myself DJ Ukulele. But if I do that,
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 4: I have to change the name of the channel. I
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 4: don't know. My mind's going everywhere right now. I'm out
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 4: of it right now. This is what happens when you
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 4: don't get enough sleep. Patreon.com slash LearnToTote if you want
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 4: to support me that way. Loser cast every Tuesday night.
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 4: We had an episode the other night that was pretty fun.
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 4: And New York Giants G-Spot podcast, I assume, will come
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 4: at some point. That's going to do it. Yeah, I
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 4: did a college football preview if you want to go
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 4: check that out, although I'm a dumbass, and I think
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 4: I got a couple things wrong in that show. Although
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 4: I think my opinions on where the value is, I think, stand, though.
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 4: like generally I think I gave a nice like overview
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 4: of like the kind of the new landscape there, but
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 4: you know me, I'm a, I'm a game by game better.
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 4: Like I'm not really a futurist guy. So I'm looking
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 4: at individual situations that come up in individual games or whatever.
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 4: So we'll see. We'll see if I have any week
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 4: zero plays. Cause that's coming up, uh, Friday night. I'll
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 4: probably do that show and talk about Saturday's week zero
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 4: FBS football games. I think there are six or seven
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 4: of them or something like that. So it'll be a
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 4: quick show, but, um, before we get these like two
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 4: hour long shows that I wind up having to do,
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 4: I don't talk about every single FBS game though. It's college.
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 4: It's way too much. But I talk about all the
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 4: big games, the ranked games. Then I talk about, uh,
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 4: like the ones that I actually have like better opinions
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 4: on basically. And I'll talk about other games that people
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 4: shout them out in the chat, but hopefully we get
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 4: some more, uh, viewers here, get some new numbers because
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 4: people love football. So that's coming. Let's get this wind today.
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 4: That's going to do it. Peace.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 2: somebody answer, let somebody know.
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 3: You do not have to lose this round alone. Hold on, hold.
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: On, not tonight.
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 3: Not now Hold on, hold.
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: On Let me pull you.
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 3: Out That bad luck fights hard But it don't get
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 3: the crown Hold.
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: On, hold on Stay with me now.
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on You're still here now guitar solo
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 3: Thank you.