Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Nine-Team Parlay with Picks from NFL, MAC, Pac-12, Big 12, SEC, and AAC

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Nine-Team Parlay with Picks from NFL, MAC, Pac-12, Big 12, SEC, and AAC · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites. I am Chad Millman of the
0:15
Speaker 1: Action Network. This is the Parlay Show, which means which
0:21
Speaker 1: means me and my Action Network colleagues, including Jeff Schwartz.
0:27
Speaker 1: Eight years in the NFL, is an offensive lineman, one
0:31
Speaker 1: of the most famous Oregon Ducks to ever grace the
0:35
Speaker 1: field at Austin Stadium along with Paula Duca. Ten years
0:42
Speaker 1: in the major leagues, four times an all star catcher,
0:45
Speaker 1: number retired at Arizona State University. Boys. We gotta pick
0:52
Speaker 1: nine games, nine games to win. We have yet to
0:59
Speaker 1: cat I don't even know how many episodes were into
1:03
Speaker 1: this thing, Jeff, what is our problem? Our problem is
1:08
Speaker 1: we're picking on a Monday. Um. No, I mean, it's
1:14
Speaker 1: it's nine games. It's tough to do. Um. But I
1:18
Speaker 1: I feel I feel exceptionally good about a lot of
1:21
Speaker 1: my picks this week, like I'm I'm looking forward to,
1:23
Speaker 1: especially after last weekend when college football wasn't a complete
1:27
Speaker 1: and understand. I don't know why this is Chad. Every
1:30
Speaker 1: other sport I bet on I bet a single unit
1:33
Speaker 1: for most games, I bet, I bet the juice right,
1:35
Speaker 1: so it's one time I bet bet one point one units. Uh,
1:39
Speaker 1: but like in college shop off for whatever reason, I
1:41
Speaker 1: think I know better and I'm like, I'm gonna bet
1:43
Speaker 1: five units on this game and it loses like seven
1:46
Speaker 1: five percent of the time. Like, I don't understand why
1:48
Speaker 1: that sport. I think I know more than I know.
1:52
Speaker 1: It makes it just it is it is my boy
1:54
Speaker 1: to me that I do that all the time. I
1:56
Speaker 1: don't don't get it, and then I start chasing It's crazy.
1:59
Speaker 1: But any other sport on one NFL no problem winning everything.
2:03
Speaker 1: I'm just let's football man, Like it's so passionate about it. Well,
2:08
Speaker 1: this raises an interesting and interesting question for you and
2:11
Speaker 1: for Polly, which is you're both former professional athletes. You
2:17
Speaker 1: reach the top of your field. It's like the the chances,
2:22
Speaker 1: the chances of us winning this parlay are actually better
2:28
Speaker 1: than making it to professional sports. And you guys did that,
2:33
Speaker 1: so it actually is even more astonishing that we've not
2:35
Speaker 1: been able to figure out how to win this parlay.
2:37
Speaker 1: But but because of that, because you got as far
2:41
Speaker 1: as you did, does it screw with your ability to
2:45
Speaker 1: bet on sports? That is the fundamental question that is
2:48
Speaker 1: what makes it so interesting when former professional athletes are
2:53
Speaker 1: trying their hand at sports betting is why do you
2:57
Speaker 1: think you know so much about college football? So this
3:00
Speaker 1: is a great question because I study most of my
3:03
Speaker 1: days in the NFL, and that's what I do most
3:04
Speaker 1: of the time in college football. Um, I think I can.
3:07
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't know what the reason is, but
3:09
Speaker 1: I think that and Paul, I think is wit this
3:11
Speaker 1: way too, Like we're so competitive that we can't sit
3:14
Speaker 1: still during a game. Like the best example I have
3:16
Speaker 1: is actually in the NFL, I did our Sports Actually Happen.
3:20
Speaker 1: Is fabulous and it has a section we can do
3:22
Speaker 1: like an analysis on your gambling. So I did it
3:24
Speaker 1: a full one for the NFL. If if I take
3:26
Speaker 1: out second half betting in the NFL, uh all bets
3:30
Speaker 1: this year in the second half, I'm like overall, But
3:33
Speaker 1: then you added I'm twelve and eighteen and second half
3:35
Speaker 1: betting because I'm trying to just I think I know
3:37
Speaker 1: better than he obviously drops a percentage back down a
3:40
Speaker 1: little bit. I just think that we're both competitive. I'm like,
3:42
Speaker 1: you know what this, there's no way that X team
3:45
Speaker 1: and we just don't account for the motion. Maybe I
3:47
Speaker 1: don't know what it is. I I'm find the NFL,
3:49
Speaker 1: but in college football, I don't know what it is
3:52
Speaker 1: this year. I just Paul, you have an answer. I
3:54
Speaker 1: don't know why. No. Basketball I love and I'm a
4:02
Speaker 1: unit guy, one unit guy. Baseball was a one unit guy.
4:04
Speaker 1: But when it comes to football, I do fire more
4:06
Speaker 1: on football, even w in real life. So I played
4:08
Speaker 1: more years and you're right, and it's been the same
4:10
Speaker 1: way for me to look at an overall record, I'm up,
4:14
Speaker 1: but I'm not a ton of units because every time
4:16
Speaker 1: I fire on second half of units, like like yesterday,
4:19
Speaker 1: you just you're playing on a half and you're playing
4:22
Speaker 1: on the coaches making adjustments, and you end up realizing
4:26
Speaker 1: there's a lot of dumb coaches out in college football, UM,
4:29
Speaker 1: a lot of puppets. And when he comes to pro football,
4:32
Speaker 1: there's a lot of dumb pro coaches. We've come through
4:35
Speaker 1: the age of two thousand and eighteen where the player
4:37
Speaker 1: has now taken over the coach a little bit and
4:42
Speaker 1: there's more of a player on the field. UM. And
4:46
Speaker 1: perfect example could be like a school like Louisville who's
4:49
Speaker 1: just completely collapsed and they can go the other way.
4:51
Speaker 1: So that's why college football is really tough to figure
4:54
Speaker 1: out and pro is two as well. But Chad Nick
4:57
Speaker 1: does make a great point. I think the competitive and
5:00
Speaker 1: is I do. I If you look at my second
5:02
Speaker 1: half betting, it's awful. And it's because we do watch
5:06
Speaker 1: the game and we see something we're like, Okay, this
5:08
Speaker 1: is gonna happen, and this is gonna happen that, and
5:11
Speaker 1: it doesn't and you end up chasing stuff, and um,
5:14
Speaker 1: it's a competitive nature of Jeff and I to go, Okay,
5:17
Speaker 1: we're not losing for this day. Let's get back to
5:20
Speaker 1: somewhat normalcy for this day for our followers, you know
5:24
Speaker 1: what I mean, instead of thinking, Okay, this is the
5:27
Speaker 1: smartest play. You know. God, that's so interesting the way
5:31
Speaker 1: you guys lose those games and are looking for adjustments.
5:35
Speaker 1: But when you're looking for the adjustments, I just wonder
5:37
Speaker 1: if you're looking at them through an athlete's eye or
5:40
Speaker 1: through the eye of a fan. I'm a little bit
5:44
Speaker 1: of both. Not not not not a fan. I'm looking
5:47
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the line because if I look at
5:49
Speaker 1: something that I like, I knew I was in trouble. Listen,
5:53
Speaker 1: I love the Michigan but when that line really didn't
5:57
Speaker 1: move and then it just started scaring me throughout the
6:01
Speaker 1: week driving and obviously my my gut feeling game to fruition.
6:06
Speaker 1: When the first series I knew I was toast, I
6:08
Speaker 1: knew the game was over. UM. So I sometimes will
6:13
Speaker 1: try to stay late to see where the line goes
6:15
Speaker 1: because sometimes the sharps just just you know, there's all
6:19
Speaker 1: no here and there and when you when you try
6:21
Speaker 1: to play something on the money today, for example for me,
6:23
Speaker 1: was Iowa. I played Iowa minus ten on Monday, thinking
6:27
Speaker 1: they were going to stick there. That game went almost
6:28
Speaker 1: all the way down to seven. Now miss field goal
6:30
Speaker 1: late would have made it eleven, and it didn't matter
6:33
Speaker 1: towards the end, but that that game was teetering on
6:35
Speaker 1: a lot. There were a lot of lines this week
6:37
Speaker 1: that were swung four to five points um, both pro
6:41
Speaker 1: and college, and a lot of people caught lines in
6:43
Speaker 1: the middle, and a lot of people did. I think
6:47
Speaker 1: one thing too with college football is there are so
6:51
Speaker 1: many different stats out there and so many different ways
6:54
Speaker 1: to look at these teams. There's obviously so many teams,
6:56
Speaker 1: a hundred and thirty of them that if you're not
6:59
Speaker 1: and now Paul and I are doing things throughout the
7:01
Speaker 1: week like if you're not if you don't have your
7:03
Speaker 1: system yet for college football, as far as what stature
7:06
Speaker 1: you look at, what you count for, and everything. It
7:08
Speaker 1: could be a tough sport to bet on because there's
7:10
Speaker 1: so many variables that go into those games and the
7:14
Speaker 1: stats and which ones do you look at, and the
7:15
Speaker 1: weather and then who's playing who you know, are they
7:18
Speaker 1: motivated for a bowl game? Do they have to win
7:20
Speaker 1: this game or not? Is a coach getting fired? Like,
7:23
Speaker 1: There's just so many things that are going on in
7:26
Speaker 1: these kids minds and throughout their programs, And I think
7:29
Speaker 1: it's just it's a tough sport to bet on, you know,
7:33
Speaker 1: unless you have your method down. Look, Jeff, every sport
7:39
Speaker 1: is tough to bet on. Yeah, it doesn't matter. And
7:44
Speaker 1: I think the only thing we know for sure is
7:48
Speaker 1: that a bet against Hugh Jackson, no matter what sideline
7:53
Speaker 1: he's on, is the right side. I've been professional sports.
7:59
Speaker 1: I need your take. I've never in my lifetime what
8:03
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield said afterwards, first of all as a joke,
8:06
Speaker 1: because like you know, you just went over there. He
8:08
Speaker 1: got fired. Whatever, he's upset, he's upset, But when the
8:12
Speaker 1: guy gave the ball to you, you don't believe you
8:15
Speaker 1: tapped the guy like, hey, how's it going. I mean,
8:17
Speaker 1: at some point when you leave an organization, just stay
8:20
Speaker 1: off the sideline, go to the back of the bench,
8:23
Speaker 1: you know, you know, high in the back or Waldo
8:25
Speaker 1: hide like, and you're an offensive player. Our offensive minded
8:31
Speaker 1: person working on the defenses is getting towards like you
8:35
Speaker 1: can't even make up that scenario. The guy handing the
8:37
Speaker 1: ball to you, but you tapping him back like hey,
8:40
Speaker 1: the Christmas card is coming is like, I don't get it.
8:46
Speaker 1: I had not a great look for you this weekend,
8:48
Speaker 1: thought that everyone the Browns is gonna be like cool
8:52
Speaker 1: with him doing this, and then obviously we're not, and
8:55
Speaker 1: I'm not. Look Baker Mayfield. I think his answer was fabulous.
8:57
Speaker 1: I know it was a player falls in a situation
9:00
Speaker 1: the same way, and I understand that he was free
9:02
Speaker 1: to get a job. I mean, he's okay to do that.
9:04
Speaker 1: But I've never seen a head coach get fired and
9:06
Speaker 1: immediately want to work again. I mean, maybe he wanted
9:08
Speaker 1: some some normalcy back in his job, but he's not
9:12
Speaker 1: a defensive coordinator. And they have been awful. They allowed
9:15
Speaker 1: like three hundred yards to rushing to Lamar Jackson in Baltimore,
9:19
Speaker 1: and they let the Browns how they're were with them
9:21
Speaker 1: the first half of that game. So I don't know
9:23
Speaker 1: what's happening. I think you might be the first coach
9:25
Speaker 1: get fired from two teams in one year. It is
9:29
Speaker 1: pretty astonishing. Like there were points during that Bengals games
9:32
Speaker 1: and I want to I want to get to our
9:33
Speaker 1: probably bets, but there were points during that Bengals game
9:36
Speaker 1: where literally it looked like tweedledd and tweedledumb right, like
9:42
Speaker 1: they could not they couldn't execute a snap. They were
9:47
Speaker 1: like Andy Dalton throwing interception. Next thing you know, he's
9:51
Speaker 1: dropping back in the shotgun and it's over his head
9:54
Speaker 1: and they're fumbling and Cleveland's recovering and he's breaking his
9:57
Speaker 1: thumb or whatever happened to his thumb. It was astonishing,
10:01
Speaker 1: It was totally astonishing. It was my biggest regret on Sunday.
10:06
Speaker 1: I had two massive, three massive regrets, but the Browns
10:09
Speaker 1: were easily the biggest. Other one I didn't I didn't
10:11
Speaker 1: pull the trigger on the Broncos too. I didn't pull
10:14
Speaker 1: the trigger on the Bills. Three. I didn't pull the
10:16
Speaker 1: trigger on the Browns. Yeah, I took the Bills and
10:19
Speaker 1: the Broncos um the only were good I had. I
10:21
Speaker 1: really felt good about Tampa and I just didn't trust
10:23
Speaker 1: that Jamis Winston wouldn't turn the ball over a thousand times,
10:26
Speaker 1: and he didn't and they won. So when he doesn't
10:28
Speaker 1: turn the ball over, they win. Shocking, Right, Let's get
10:31
Speaker 1: to feeling good with my segue. Who's that? I think
10:39
Speaker 1: Arizona might be the worst team in the league. Yeah,
10:41
Speaker 1: the Wheels came off on that one. They had. They
10:43
Speaker 1: had a couple of weeks where they were looking Okay, well,
10:46
Speaker 1: let's get into it. Let's get into our parlay because
10:48
Speaker 1: we got we got conference championship weekend coming up. We
10:52
Speaker 1: got what is it, Week fourteen in the NFL? Is
10:55
Speaker 1: that what we're up to now? So Week thirteen in
11:01
Speaker 1: the NFL, Jeff eat My Schwartz. Go all right, I
11:08
Speaker 1: know I just talked about coach football, but I'm gonna
11:10
Speaker 1: start with this one. And I have stats the back
11:12
Speaker 1: up this. This is not just like a gut pick.
11:15
Speaker 1: So give me Texas plus seven a half against Oklahoma
11:18
Speaker 1: this weekend. I'll give you all the reasons why Tom
11:20
Speaker 1: Herman is the head coach of the University of Texas,
11:23
Speaker 1: the Long Horns. At Houston, he was six and oh
11:26
Speaker 1: against the spread as the underdog at Texas. Now he's
11:29
Speaker 1: six one and one against the spread, his underdog with
11:32
Speaker 1: an outright win already this year against Oklahoma and the
11:35
Speaker 1: push this year against West Virginia. So the two best
11:37
Speaker 1: teams he's faced, the two best offenses he's faced. He's
11:40
Speaker 1: kept the game within three points when they beat Oklahoma
11:42
Speaker 1: and they're up twenty one, remember the fourth quarter in
11:44
Speaker 1: that game. Any West Virginia took a last second throw
11:48
Speaker 1: by by Greer to win that game for for the Mountaineer.
11:51
Speaker 1: So he's played these teams close, the best offenses close
11:54
Speaker 1: all year. Seven and a half is way too many
11:56
Speaker 1: points for an Oklahoma team that cannot stop anyone on defense. Right,
12:01
Speaker 1: they allowed fifty six points to West Virginia this week.
12:03
Speaker 1: Now I scored fifty nine. Obviously, that's great. They're a
12:06
Speaker 1: eight and yards would playing on defense. It's not really
12:08
Speaker 1: that they can't stop anyone. It's that they tap. It's
12:11
Speaker 1: everything they tackle poorly, and they let guys run down
12:14
Speaker 1: the middle of field wide open Third and eight teen
12:17
Speaker 1: in West Virginia is standing a slot wide receiver running
12:21
Speaker 1: full speed down the slot and no one's even touching
12:24
Speaker 1: him and he scores on seventy yard touchdown on third eighteen. Um,
12:28
Speaker 1: Texas defense can play a little bit of defense their
12:30
Speaker 1: fifty seven in yardsword place, they can play some defense,
12:33
Speaker 1: and so I think this game is a lot closer
12:36
Speaker 1: than seven and a half points. It's inside as well,
12:38
Speaker 1: So whether it's not a concern whatsoever, be pristine conditions. Um,
12:42
Speaker 1: and I just can't see this game. Um, I just
12:45
Speaker 1: can't see Oklahoma's defense doing much to stop Texas enough
12:49
Speaker 1: to cover over a touchdown. I have strong opinions on this,
12:54
Speaker 1: but Paul, if you'd like to go as one of
12:57
Speaker 1: our college football aficionados, no, I like it. I'm with you. Um,
13:06
Speaker 1: they can score, I think better than a lot of
13:07
Speaker 1: people think. I mean texts is a lot more explosive
13:10
Speaker 1: than people think. And beginning a year, obviously with the
13:14
Speaker 1: schedule and what happened, UM, a lot of people were like, Okay,
13:18
Speaker 1: where is the Texas program going? But they is actually
13:20
Speaker 1: literally progressed every week throughout the year and have gotten
13:23
Speaker 1: better in here right listen, not stop anybody, And I'm
13:27
Speaker 1: sick and tired of people saying I want to open
13:29
Speaker 1: him in the playoffs because if they really wanted to
13:32
Speaker 1: play Alabama and to a state on the field, they
13:34
Speaker 1: could score a hundred points and that would be you know,
13:36
Speaker 1: like they would score every possession, so they would it
13:41
Speaker 1: would happen. I would actually play that proper wager and
13:43
Speaker 1: say let it play every possession. But it's I think
13:48
Speaker 1: it's a very good play. And I thought the line
13:49
Speaker 1: would would be bigger. Actually, didn't you think we're fine?
13:52
Speaker 1: Would actually open up bigger. It might have opened up
13:55
Speaker 1: at like four and moved. It would open up a
13:58
Speaker 1: four and a half and move all the way. I
14:00
Speaker 1: believe the seven and a half, so um a lot
14:03
Speaker 1: of people that might be right. Yeah, I think that's
14:05
Speaker 1: where it opened up. I'm not surprised. I mean, people
14:07
Speaker 1: Oklahoma can score a lot of points. I think I
14:09
Speaker 1: don't think people think Texas can keep up. But again,
14:11
Speaker 1: the two biggest games they played this year against West
14:14
Speaker 1: Virginia and Oklahoma, they did keep up on offense. So
14:17
Speaker 1: that's I think a good sign for for this game.
14:19
Speaker 1: Day they played West Virginia, I played the under in
14:21
Speaker 1: that game, so they something like that. So how much
14:27
Speaker 1: they have big game they have big play capability, but
14:30
Speaker 1: they also play that grind game. They have a dual game.
14:34
Speaker 1: They can't play defense, they can also score. Jeff is right.
14:38
Speaker 1: This game opened to four and a half, it's now
14:40
Speaker 1: as seven and a half. I like Texas in this
14:43
Speaker 1: game as well, And one of the reasons I like
14:47
Speaker 1: them is because Colin Wilson, our college football expert for
14:51
Speaker 1: Action Network, actually wrote about this game on Sunday morning,
14:55
Speaker 1: so ready games he was looking for and he was
14:57
Speaker 1: predicting that if he could get he he can get
15:00
Speaker 1: Texas at plus seven and a half or better. So
15:02
Speaker 1: we are on the lower end of what he wants.
15:06
Speaker 1: He would take Texas at seven and a half. My
15:09
Speaker 1: only concern is that, like this line is definitely gonna
15:12
Speaker 1: go up, like the money's gonna come in Oklahoma. So
15:15
Speaker 1: I'm only bummed that we're gonna get Texas at seven
15:18
Speaker 1: and a half and we'll probably be able to get
15:20
Speaker 1: him at eight and a half or nine and a
15:21
Speaker 1: half or even ten and be disappointed that this game
15:25
Speaker 1: is gonna land on eight and we're gonna have gotten
15:27
Speaker 1: it at the worst of the number. Um, what's also
15:30
Speaker 1: interesting to me, so we should to ching this because
15:32
Speaker 1: we're definitely taking Texas to seven and a half. But
15:35
Speaker 1: what's also interesting to me these teams played already this year.
15:41
Speaker 1: Oklahoma scored twenty one and the fourth quarter. Texas, I
15:45
Speaker 1: agree likes, has improved every week. They had one clunker
15:48
Speaker 1: when like they were starting to get really good. They
15:50
Speaker 1: went into still Water, there were four point favorites. They
15:53
Speaker 1: were not ready to be road favorites. They lost to
15:55
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State, and to me, that was sort of a
15:59
Speaker 1: turning point for them. That's when they kind of realize, Okay,
16:02
Speaker 1: we're close to being good enough, but we're not quite
16:04
Speaker 1: good enough. And then they did much better in the
16:05
Speaker 1: rest of the year. I don't think they can tackle anybody.
16:09
Speaker 1: The total in this game is seventy nine. Seventy nine
16:14
Speaker 1: stays there. That is insane. The over and under was
16:20
Speaker 1: eighty six in the West Virginia game. My buddy goes, hey,
16:22
Speaker 1: you're gonna go under in that game. I'm like, why
16:24
Speaker 1: it goes? This? Put you like a chance of rain
16:27
Speaker 1: in Morgantown all you know, all this whatever, this is
16:30
Speaker 1: that they had eighty points at halftime. Yeah, this is nuts.
16:38
Speaker 1: I'm very tempted by the over in this game. I think,
16:42
Speaker 1: I mean, doesn't it go against like every bit of
16:44
Speaker 1: your bones to take the over in this game? But
16:46
Speaker 1: how do you, of course you take If you look
16:48
Speaker 1: at the top twenty five college football this past week,
16:51
Speaker 1: almost every game went over, right. Obviously we know the
16:54
Speaker 1: seven overtime game. I stay up to watch that game.
16:56
Speaker 1: But Alabama went over this week, Ohio State, Michigan over
17:00
Speaker 1: this week, Like all these games are going way over.
17:05
Speaker 1: Florida Florida State, what over ever? We thought that was
17:06
Speaker 1: gonna be a game that that was under game, Georgia
17:09
Speaker 1: went over, Syracuse BC went over, Like all these games
17:13
Speaker 1: are going over. Yeah, I don't understand, Like the West
17:16
Speaker 1: Virginia game, like literally should have been put at ninety. Now,
17:20
Speaker 1: I don't know chat if you like, has a has
17:23
Speaker 1: a total ever been put at ninety in the college
17:26
Speaker 1: in game cal Oregon was a couple of years ago,
17:30
Speaker 1: and they like they scored a hundred and sixteen points
17:34
Speaker 1: that game. It was like, because here's the crazy part.
17:36
Speaker 1: I did some research, like if you look totals that
17:39
Speaker 1: have been over seventy and like like in the seventies,
17:43
Speaker 1: if they do go over, like it's like sixteen and eight,
17:46
Speaker 1: like over the last like whatever, When Vegas puts it
17:49
Speaker 1: that high, they can't put it high enough. I mean
17:51
Speaker 1: like six. I mean that that line with West Virginia six.
17:55
Speaker 1: You couldn't put it higher. You know you do you
17:57
Speaker 1: put it? I mean it's ridiculous, It's insanity. Uh, it's
18:04
Speaker 1: your true brother man. Okay. Well, um, I'm gonna go
18:08
Speaker 1: with the Houston sections off the bye week minus. I
18:11
Speaker 1: think they're five now and open a four and a
18:13
Speaker 1: half against the Cleveland Browns, and um, it's what have
18:18
Speaker 1: you done for me lately? Baker Michoel had his coming
18:20
Speaker 1: out party. Um played really really well. I think sneaks.
18:25
Speaker 1: The defense didn't play that well in the second half.
18:27
Speaker 1: And I know Cincinnati was they blow him out early
18:31
Speaker 1: and it was it was Cincinnati's a dead team in
18:35
Speaker 1: I proclaimed Houston sort of a dead team a while ago.
18:38
Speaker 1: But they are building steam and they're getting better and
18:41
Speaker 1: better as the weeks have gone on. I still think
18:43
Speaker 1: the Wilson he would losing leeve sneed her heard them,
18:47
Speaker 1: um and only laying four and a half against the Browns,
18:51
Speaker 1: I think it's a shark play. There's seven and four now,
18:53
Speaker 1: I got to keep moving A seventh three now and
18:55
Speaker 1: keep moving forward, um, and try to convince that they're
18:59
Speaker 1: still a player in the a f C. In that defense, Um,
19:04
Speaker 1: it's pretty strong and it's played pretty strong the last
19:06
Speaker 1: couple of weeks. So I think a lot of people
19:08
Speaker 1: will roll with the Browns. And if you look right now,
19:11
Speaker 1: the bets are on the Cleveland Browns. That's surprised, and
19:14
Speaker 1: I think it's the line is gonna go off because
19:15
Speaker 1: to me four and after five, she's a little white
19:17
Speaker 1: right now, although people are going off of what bigger
19:20
Speaker 1: Mayfield did and like, okay, every every every time I
19:24
Speaker 1: see a stat I see it's not a Bigger Mayfield,
19:26
Speaker 1: Sam Darnel John. I don't care what the other rookies did.
19:29
Speaker 1: They always want to compare him. He's better than the
19:31
Speaker 1: other guys. Right now, I am throwing a challenge. I
19:35
Speaker 1: am throwing a challenge. Flag. Wow, here's why you know
19:44
Speaker 1: why I'm throwing the challenge. Here's why I want to
19:48
Speaker 1: fucking win twenty dollars and I don't want to bet
19:51
Speaker 1: shitty lines. And I'm telling you, like, if the Texans
19:56
Speaker 1: lose tonight or don't perform well against the Items, this
20:01
Speaker 1: line is gonna be at like three and a half
20:04
Speaker 1: or two and a half, and the money is going
20:06
Speaker 1: to come steaming on the Baker mayfields and then we're
20:09
Speaker 1: gonna feel like dicks. And I don't want to feel
20:12
Speaker 1: like a dick anymore, at least because of this road
20:16
Speaker 1: road games. But I think Chad's point is that working,
20:19
Speaker 1: is that if we waited this one day for this,
20:21
Speaker 1: we could get a much better line, get this under
20:24
Speaker 1: a field goal. Because I think he's right. I think
20:26
Speaker 1: the Texans lose tonight. This is line is gonna plummet
20:29
Speaker 1: and you could even maybe get it at some points
20:30
Speaker 1: at three, I maybe even two and a half. I
20:32
Speaker 1: think Chad's right, like we're gonna get a bad line.
20:35
Speaker 1: And this is the problem with bending this game on Monday.
20:36
Speaker 1: We have to think about where these lines might move
20:40
Speaker 1: eventually before the weekend. And that's been that's happened. Of course,
20:46
Speaker 1: it's a weird week it's a very awkward. You can
20:50
Speaker 1: think about it. I'm ready to go. I got a game.
20:53
Speaker 1: I got a game. If you want to think about it, no,
20:56
Speaker 1: I know, if you're ready, do it. The Atlanta Falcons,
21:00
Speaker 1: fuck you, fuck you that you would go from like
21:04
Speaker 1: the Cleveland Browns as four and a half point dogs
21:07
Speaker 1: against a team that hasn't even played yet to the
21:09
Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons. The Atlanta Falcons, Are you kidding me? I
21:14
Speaker 1: hate the Falcons. I hate everything about the Falcons. It's
21:18
Speaker 1: like you, It's like you're one of my kids, and
21:20
Speaker 1: you purposely chose a team that I you know, I
21:24
Speaker 1: can't bet. Do you follow me on Twitter? I bet
21:27
Speaker 1: the Falcons home? Yeah, home dog? And you're gonna go
21:33
Speaker 1: with Lamar Jackson, who basically the Raiders had that game covered.
21:37
Speaker 1: If if Terrell sucks decided to get tackled, and the
21:41
Speaker 1: Derek Carr doesn't break every part of his body he
21:44
Speaker 1: played the Okay, I'm sorry. The Raiders in the second
21:46
Speaker 1: worst team in all of football. Lamark Jackson is not
21:49
Speaker 1: gonna win three games in a row. I'm sorry. In
21:52
Speaker 1: in Atlanta, I hate you from making this choice. This
21:57
Speaker 1: is like you're doing this out of spite against me.
22:02
Speaker 1: This well, we threw the challenge already, so we're stuck
22:05
Speaker 1: with this challenge. You don't want to choose any of them,
22:10
Speaker 1: then I'll just start running through the rampant of college
22:12
Speaker 1: football because that's in my hot spot. You're gonna give
22:14
Speaker 1: me like Middle Tennessee State in the you know, god
22:18
Speaker 1: knows what championship game being played in Murphy's Borough. Yeah, alright,
22:26
Speaker 1: so we so we're in. I guess Falcons plus doing it.
22:29
Speaker 1: I'll take no. We got three. We got Falcons plus
22:31
Speaker 1: three plus three? Okay plus three? Sorry, home dog that
22:35
Speaker 1: goes like you read you wrote eight books about a
22:37
Speaker 1: home dog. They barked this weekend Bills and Broncos. Oh
22:43
Speaker 1: my god, there's a bunch of home dogs this week too,
22:45
Speaker 1: and that was awful. They barked this weekend. What's all
22:50
Speaker 1: saying that? Jesus Christ? Listen? Can I go speaking Bernie
22:57
Speaker 1: this weekend? We speaking with dogs at seventeen in college?
23:01
Speaker 1: How does that happen? Yeah? It was bad. For the
23:03
Speaker 1: second of this one Saturday, it was like satrocious speaking
23:08
Speaker 1: of dogs. Let's go Oga, Let's go Georgia at plus
23:19
Speaker 1: thirteen and a half. Right now, why are you saying,
23:25
Speaker 1: like I'm gonna listen to you. All you've been saying
23:27
Speaker 1: for the first twenty minutes of this podcast is I
23:30
Speaker 1: don't know about love it so much, but I can't
23:32
Speaker 1: do it. You're you you're yelling me for bidding Matt
23:36
Speaker 1: ryany you're bidding against Alabama, I'm gonna do it. Hey.
23:42
Speaker 1: You know what's interesting, By the way, before we get
23:44
Speaker 1: to that, the most bet game of the top twenty
23:48
Speaker 1: five college games right now is Texas Oklahoma. I'm looking
23:51
Speaker 1: at the Action network gap right now, most back game,
23:53
Speaker 1: second most back game is obviously Bama U G A Um.
24:00
Speaker 1: Justin's just tough. But yeah, let me hear they're just
24:08
Speaker 1: betting at Alabama because I think the line for this,
24:13
Speaker 1: I think the line. Look, this line has already popped
24:16
Speaker 1: right this line opened at ten and a half. It's
24:20
Speaker 1: already been bet up to thirteen and a half. I
24:22
Speaker 1: think we're sort of reaching the outer limits of where
24:27
Speaker 1: wise guys are gonna start taking Georgia. I'm comfortable on this. Also,
24:32
Speaker 1: Colin Wilson said he would take Georgia at at a
24:36
Speaker 1: lower number. I think he said he would take Georgia
24:38
Speaker 1: at plus eight. I'm getting Georgia at plus thirteen and
24:42
Speaker 1: a half. I mean, come on, that's tough. I don't
24:48
Speaker 1: I guess, and I don't disagree that Georgia's probably within
24:52
Speaker 1: this range. But I do worry that Alabama is gonna
24:56
Speaker 1: just in the second half like they did against Auburn
24:58
Speaker 1: and just go crazy. And Georgia passing the ball is
25:01
Speaker 1: not as good as they were running the ball. They
25:02
Speaker 1: get behind in this game, it could get possibly ugly.
25:06
Speaker 1: But Georgia's gotta win this game to be in the playoff, right,
25:09
Speaker 1: I mean, so I think they're gonna feel a little motivated.
25:12
Speaker 1: Mean SMP that Bill Connley's has a has this game
25:14
Speaker 1: as a three point margin. And you talked about Colin
25:17
Speaker 1: Wilson having this game. Uh, what Tenny said? I think
25:20
Speaker 1: he bet he would bet Alin Wilson said that said
25:22
Speaker 1: the projected spread was eight, it opened at ten, it's
25:27
Speaker 1: been bet up to thirteen and a half. And Colin
25:30
Speaker 1: was willing to take Georgia at plus seven or better better.
25:33
Speaker 1: So now I'm getting Georgia at double the price of
25:36
Speaker 1: what Colin was willing to take them at. Yeah, but
25:40
Speaker 1: what do they say, like if if if Alabama were
25:42
Speaker 1: to play Clemson right now for the national title, where
25:44
Speaker 1: do they think it's going to be? Like eight and
25:46
Speaker 1: a half? Eight somewhere in that are if you, George,
25:49
Speaker 1: I guess that's about right. They were saying Michigan four
25:51
Speaker 1: teen before they got routed. It's about right here, I mean,
25:57
Speaker 1: I don't mind the play Listen, well, right, they've been
26:02
Speaker 1: right with them when they played them, I mean last
26:05
Speaker 1: year and uh, but you know you're bend against Alabama.
26:10
Speaker 1: It's a both bets been against the Rams and the Chiefs,
26:12
Speaker 1: but we pulled it off. Before I want to dare greatly.
26:17
Speaker 1: Let's do it all right back to me. Yeah, we
26:25
Speaker 1: are going to the NFL. Carolina Panthers lost three in
26:29
Speaker 1: a row there in a tailspin right now. They're just
26:31
Speaker 1: not playing a fish and football and they're even worse
26:34
Speaker 1: on the road. They go to Tampa this weekend. Tampa's
26:36
Speaker 1: getting four points. All the money so far, as of
26:39
Speaker 1: course on Carolina think they're gonna write the ship. So
26:41
Speaker 1: far this year on the road, the Panthers have lost
26:45
Speaker 1: the Falcons. Didn't cover that game. They then went and
26:50
Speaker 1: played the Redskins lost. The Redkins did not cover that game.
26:53
Speaker 1: They came back from seventeen points against the Eagles. They
26:56
Speaker 1: did cover that game. They went to They went to Pittsburgh,
27:00
Speaker 1: got blown out, didn't cover that game, went to the Lions,
27:03
Speaker 1: lost that game. To not cover that game. So I'm
27:06
Speaker 1: going with the Bucks here at plus four. Uh, Tampa
27:10
Speaker 1: Bay if again the cave The caveat is if they
27:12
Speaker 1: don't turn the ball over. They are really good at offense.
27:15
Speaker 1: And they played and I'm up at the Niners this weekend.
27:18
Speaker 1: They allowed nine points. I mean it's not bad. I
27:20
Speaker 1: know it's the Niners, but I think home dog again
27:23
Speaker 1: plus four. Not getting a lot of the love from
27:26
Speaker 1: the ticket so far. Panthers are really scoffing. Um. I
27:29
Speaker 1: like the Bucks here, Um, I like it. I like
27:37
Speaker 1: to play. Um, the Buds played well yesterday, I thought,
27:43
Speaker 1: and the Panthers like again, God Jeck went high. Tell
27:47
Speaker 1: you what Christian Cathery is some time of players though,
27:49
Speaker 1: Um it was he was one man show yesterday. He
27:51
Speaker 1: kept him in that ball game. So yeah, I mean
27:55
Speaker 1: home points at home. I thought Winston he played a
28:00
Speaker 1: lot better yesterday, ball ConTroll. He checked down a lot more.
28:04
Speaker 1: Him and evn't seemed like they're back and think like
28:06
Speaker 1: they used to be. So um, I don't mind to play.
28:10
Speaker 1: I don't mind that playing in the one. But this
28:13
Speaker 1: is a this is an NFL locker room question for Jack.
28:18
Speaker 1: Can someone who is playing like Jamis Winston, who has
28:24
Speaker 1: sort of habitually been a guy who tries to do
28:28
Speaker 1: too much, who plays outside of his strengths, who will
28:33
Speaker 1: regress as often as he will progress. He's back at
28:38
Speaker 1: home feeling full. Does he try to do too much
28:45
Speaker 1: in this game? What do they speaking? Tries to do
28:48
Speaker 1: too much at times? Um, and you're rights first game
28:52
Speaker 1: this year he hasn't gone with an interception. Um, I
28:57
Speaker 1: just I don't think the Panthers offense can score very
29:00
Speaker 1: well either, So I think that's that's part of this too.
29:02
Speaker 1: Is even if he does turn the ball over, I
29:03
Speaker 1: think this will be a close game. They don't have
29:06
Speaker 1: the secondary the Panthers due to cover Mike Emmons, de
29:08
Speaker 1: Shawn Jackson, O J. Howard. The Panthers were three and
29:11
Speaker 1: seven in the red zone. I see the Panthers just
29:12
Speaker 1: more a bet on the Panthers just not playing very
29:15
Speaker 1: well right now and then going back on the road
29:17
Speaker 1: where they struggled the entire season, and less about what
29:20
Speaker 1: I think. I don't think weston those four interceptions, No,
29:22
Speaker 1: I I don't, Um, But I just I just I
29:28
Speaker 1: like the bucks here. I don't have a great answer
29:33
Speaker 1: for for if he if he stinks this game or not.
29:35
Speaker 1: I mean, he generally throws a lot of interceptions. No,
29:37
Speaker 1: matter what the situation is, he tells more interceptions, trying
29:44
Speaker 1: to sit balls in a tight spots and stupid. I
29:47
Speaker 1: think God will be I think Gods will be just
29:49
Speaker 1: open this weekend, like I don't think he'll have to
29:51
Speaker 1: do that very often. I agree this Panther's team, as
29:56
Speaker 1: I've been saying all year with this team, and I
29:58
Speaker 1: aired in my thinking this weekend, and because I ended
30:00
Speaker 1: up betting them at minus three. Dramatic winds not good winds,
30:06
Speaker 1: do you know what I mean? And I think that
30:08
Speaker 1: they're dramatic winds overshadow how bad they really are. Yeah,
30:15
Speaker 1: but football team. Yeah, but he starts right when you
30:23
Speaker 1: look at him one time, they're very pretty, and then
30:24
Speaker 1: you look at him the other time, you're like they're
30:29
Speaker 1: like in bad lighting. You know, it's like that Seinfeld, Yeah,
30:34
Speaker 1: exact exactly. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah yeah. How do
30:38
Speaker 1: you guys were side? How do you feel about mcbrown
30:40
Speaker 1: being hired by North Carolina today as we're talking? Didn't
30:44
Speaker 1: he used to coach in North Carolina? Did well? It's interesting,
30:48
Speaker 1: to be honest. As soon as he did left Texas
30:50
Speaker 1: and the Long Hard Network was form. They did sort
30:53
Speaker 1: of like crumble so he had to key to some
30:56
Speaker 1: kind of He's a great recruiter. Yeah, listen, I'm a
30:59
Speaker 1: huge Mac Brown fan. Like, he was amazing at North Carolina.
31:02
Speaker 1: Then he went to Texas and like completely rebuilt that
31:05
Speaker 1: program into a powerhouse that was sort of top of
31:08
Speaker 1: the class in college football. Why not go back to
31:11
Speaker 1: North Carolina settle in. It's a comfortable place. I like
31:15
Speaker 1: Mac Brown there. I'm gonna listen as a commentator. I
31:18
Speaker 1: like him as a commentator. I thought it was very good.
31:20
Speaker 1: They needs to build in North Carolina with what's happened
31:23
Speaker 1: with their scandals they've had over the couple of years.
31:27
Speaker 1: So I think that, Um, it's a it's a great higher.
31:30
Speaker 1: So I just don't want to get your opinion on
31:31
Speaker 1: that right now. Let's let's put Mac Brown in the
31:37
Speaker 1: early season, early next season, parlay for coach of the year.
31:40
Speaker 1: Let's just do it a SEC coach of the year.
31:43
Speaker 1: We need some wins so that let's let's do what
31:46
Speaker 1: you're chang on. Tampa Bay at plus four against Carolina.
31:52
Speaker 1: I don't have the heart to challenge you on that,
31:53
Speaker 1: Jeff Polly, Okay, I'm gonna go back to the pack twelve. Um,
31:59
Speaker 1: pac twelve ripionship game. I mean, where had the baccle
32:02
Speaker 1: the pack? Fall has been Washington beats Washington State. So
32:05
Speaker 1: this week it's Washington at home or um is it
32:10
Speaker 1: it's it's playing at a neutral sit right, Yeah, I
32:12
Speaker 1: think it's I think it's stadium, yes, LEVI yeah, So, um,
32:17
Speaker 1: you're not gonna have to deal with the weather. N Listen,
32:20
Speaker 1: Washington played Utah earlier in the year. They beat him
32:23
Speaker 1: one seven. Um, I like, I love Utah on this game,
32:26
Speaker 1: so you can go ahead into chaining it plus four
32:27
Speaker 1: and a half right now. Um. They they had three
32:32
Speaker 1: Q lost fumbles that were crucial in that game. And
32:35
Speaker 1: they held um um, Washington to basically no offense the
32:39
Speaker 1: points off turnovers in the second half. Shout out, Now,
32:42
Speaker 1: Washington held them to seven points. I get it. Um,
32:44
Speaker 1: I think there's gonna be a defensive struggle type of game.
32:47
Speaker 1: Washington Washington State last year and yes, last week any
32:51
Speaker 1: absolute Minar was like he couldn't throw the ball around
32:57
Speaker 1: the around the yard like he usually does for Washington
32:59
Speaker 1: State because of the snow. Um. And I think Washington
33:03
Speaker 1: got a little bit lucky because of the weather. The
33:05
Speaker 1: weather gods last week and won that game, and boom
33:08
Speaker 1: they get in the pact talks which game, and I
33:09
Speaker 1: think they're gonna play a better Utah team. And listen,
33:12
Speaker 1: you tell us that twenty to nothing to p y
33:14
Speaker 1: U last week probably looking forward to this game. It
33:17
Speaker 1: was a meaningless game beside the rivalry game. And came
33:19
Speaker 1: back and won that game streaming little got seven. So
33:23
Speaker 1: I think Blaine getting the four and a half points
33:25
Speaker 1: Washington is just not that good of a team. And
33:27
Speaker 1: I think you was gonna hang with him. I love
33:29
Speaker 1: this place. I thought you were gonna take Washington. I
33:31
Speaker 1: just I thought you didn't do it. I'm glad um
33:34
Speaker 1: you mentioned the game this weekend. They're down twenty nothing,
33:36
Speaker 1: down to seven. It's b y. In the rivalry game,
33:39
Speaker 1: the Holy War as it's called, they came storming back.
33:43
Speaker 1: What's impressive with Utah, But as their defense, of course,
33:45
Speaker 1: we know their defense is really good. But they lost
33:48
Speaker 1: their starting quarterback, uh and I get the day they
33:52
Speaker 1: lost that game. But since then, Jesse Shelley has come
33:54
Speaker 1: in and he has done a fabulous job at quarterback.
33:57
Speaker 1: They have done a great job of finding ways to
34:00
Speaker 1: get him to be efficient and run the football even
34:02
Speaker 1: with Zach Moss being out armand Shin has come in
34:05
Speaker 1: and done a fantastic job. Um, and they are just
34:09
Speaker 1: so well coached. They by the way, just a random
34:11
Speaker 1: throw and staf I thin Kyle whittinghams like ten and
34:13
Speaker 1: one in bowl games, So that just shows you a
34:14
Speaker 1: sign that they're coaching is really good. They will and
34:18
Speaker 1: I always like, I always like the losing team, typically
34:23
Speaker 1: not always the wrong. War two is typically like the
34:24
Speaker 1: losing team in a rematch because Washington is gonna come
34:28
Speaker 1: out and basically run the same game plan. Why would
34:30
Speaker 1: they deviate from a game plan that already worked. Utah
34:33
Speaker 1: has the advantage of coming into this game and doing
34:36
Speaker 1: new things. And plus since that game that was a
34:37
Speaker 1: Week three game, by the way, PAULI, they lost to
34:40
Speaker 1: Utah lost to Washington Washington State. They completely overhauled their offense.
34:44
Speaker 1: They've run on brand new offense using the legs of
34:46
Speaker 1: their quarterbacks. And I think it's a great play. Most
34:49
Speaker 1: productions have this under under a field goal. Um, this
34:52
Speaker 1: is gonna be a tightly a tight game with with
34:54
Speaker 1: two good defenses and I get over a field goal.
34:56
Speaker 1: I love this, dude. Listen, who am I argue? I mean,
35:00
Speaker 1: as I've said, I can barely stay up past halftime
35:04
Speaker 1: for the Sunday night football game. Forget about forget about it.
35:09
Speaker 1: Like this one's an a p M on Friday, though, chat,
35:11
Speaker 1: I expect you stand for this one a p M
35:13
Speaker 1: Eastern or a PPM Eastern this Friday. Yes, I don't know, Guys.
35:20
Speaker 1: The end of the week, I'm like really tired. I
35:23
Speaker 1: usually like to hunker down, like like, especially now, you
35:26
Speaker 1: don't do anything all week either. You just travel between
35:30
Speaker 1: ESPN and your big mansion. I mean, what do you do?
35:33
Speaker 1: You'll be fine, especially now, like the East Coast, it
35:36
Speaker 1: gets so dark and it's like I'm in bed. I'm
35:40
Speaker 1: in bed by like five thirty. Just the light is
35:44
Speaker 1: five now, by the way, part five, Yeah, I really
35:48
Speaker 1: love it all right, Well we're doing it. All the money,
35:53
Speaker 1: by the way, is on Washington too, which makes me
35:55
Speaker 1: feel even better. Now I might have to bet it myself.
35:59
Speaker 1: I won't be able to watch it, but I might
36:01
Speaker 1: have to bet it myself. Who what's the first quarter?
36:07
Speaker 1: If I were to tell you this isn't the start
36:11
Speaker 1: of a thirty for thirty, But if I were to
36:13
Speaker 1: tell you that, I'm very, very interested in the Dallas
36:21
Speaker 1: Cowboys as seven point dogs at home against the New
36:24
Speaker 1: Orleans Saints. Would anybody scoff at me? Would I be supported?
36:33
Speaker 1: Would people think, oh my god, he's an idiot, he's
36:36
Speaker 1: stretching his theories way too far. Um, I saw this
36:43
Speaker 1: Gameless schedule. It's a Thursday night game, and we know
36:46
Speaker 1: that Thursday night the home team plays pretty well. You
36:50
Speaker 1: know what, forget it, hold on, I'm taking it back.
36:53
Speaker 1: I forgot it was a Thursday night game. I don't
36:55
Speaker 1: want us to be out of the parlay before sunrise
36:58
Speaker 1: on Friday. So I'm changing my tune here. Um, I'm
37:06
Speaker 1: gonna go with the Minnesota Vikings plus seven against the
37:09
Speaker 1: New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon. Where's this game at
37:16
Speaker 1: New England? This defense, for me in Minnesota, they're just
37:22
Speaker 1: getting better, they really are. Every week they're getting a
37:26
Speaker 1: little bit better. Their pass rush is getting a little
37:28
Speaker 1: bit better. Kirk Cousins is having a ridiculously good year.
37:32
Speaker 1: New England to me, like they did not play well
37:36
Speaker 1: against the Jets. That was a by the seat of
37:39
Speaker 1: their pants cover yesterday. Um. Obviously a bad beat for
37:43
Speaker 1: a lot of people who had the Jets because Kurse
37:46
Speaker 1: dropped that touchdown in the end zone at the end
37:48
Speaker 1: of the game. But I'm just, uh, you know, it's like,
37:53
Speaker 1: I think this new England team is getting the benefit
37:55
Speaker 1: of the doubt and a really really big number. Um.
38:00
Speaker 1: I kind of like this because Cousins I didn't. The
38:04
Speaker 1: win yesterday kind of took the monkey off the back
38:07
Speaker 1: of Cousins a little bit because he was four and
38:09
Speaker 1: twelve entering this game in prime time and this is
38:11
Speaker 1: the Packers team that's not very good right now. If
38:14
Speaker 1: he had lost this game, uh, there'll be a lot
38:16
Speaker 1: of doubt about about his ability to lead the Vikings
38:19
Speaker 1: to where they want him to go. I know the
38:20
Speaker 1: Packers aren't any good, but you're supposed to do this
38:22
Speaker 1: as a quarterback right over yards like that's your job.
38:27
Speaker 1: That's why they paid you to win a game like this.
38:29
Speaker 1: So I agree with you here. I think his his
38:33
Speaker 1: confidence is going to be high and they seem to
38:35
Speaker 1: finally be cooking on offense. Patriots defense is just not
38:39
Speaker 1: as good as they have been in the past. No
38:40
Speaker 1: more is their offense really You got Harrison Smith, by
38:43
Speaker 1: the way, they're all pro safety. Get gets to guard Gronkowski,
38:46
Speaker 1: which is great for the Vikings. Don't you sigh, Paula Duca,
38:50
Speaker 1: don't you sigh? Listen to me. I blowed out both
38:54
Speaker 1: of my hamstring. Davier Rhodes is not gonna be playing
38:56
Speaker 1: for a while because the problem is Gronk and they
39:01
Speaker 1: have Harrison Smith. Yeah, but even going but I trust
39:08
Speaker 1: Mike Zimmer to be able to figure that out. I mean,
39:10
Speaker 1: even going back to this is now a long time ago,
39:13
Speaker 1: but even in the first game of the year when
39:16
Speaker 1: Eric Barry was on grown cow scheme, and there are
39:17
Speaker 1: ways that you can get you know, you can shut
39:20
Speaker 1: down Gronk by and he's not the same player he
39:23
Speaker 1: used to be. He made a great touchdown catchesterday, right,
39:25
Speaker 1: He's gonna do that at times. But you have you
39:27
Speaker 1: have an All Pro safety Harrison Smith, a really good
39:29
Speaker 1: football player. Uh, the one Factor's game. It does worry
39:32
Speaker 1: me a little bit. And I'll just say this and
39:34
Speaker 1: I agree with I'll take the bed. I'm not gonna
39:35
Speaker 1: throw Jimes right here is Lucky's offensive line is really
39:38
Speaker 1: bad and the Patriots are kind of back to their
39:40
Speaker 1: old ways on on on the defense be able to
39:43
Speaker 1: generate sacks. That's just that's only that worries me about
39:45
Speaker 1: this content. Otherwise I really like this, Paul. I'm okay
39:54
Speaker 1: with the chan Alright, great, Jeff Schwarten's you're up. Okay.
40:01
Speaker 1: So I mentioned the woes I had in college football
40:05
Speaker 1: this year, right, I mean, no, no no, but my units
40:08
Speaker 1: are all messed up, and this weekend was really bad.
40:10
Speaker 1: The one place or I'm actually really good this season,
40:13
Speaker 1: believe it or not, seventeen and three. I looked this up.
40:16
Speaker 1: I looked at through all my place. Seventeen and three
40:18
Speaker 1: in maction games right the MAC Conference. Okay, seventeen and three.
40:23
Speaker 1: It's it's like I can't believe it. Weekday Matt games forever. Reason,
40:27
Speaker 1: I don't know, whatever reason, I'm good at him all right?
40:29
Speaker 1: This weekend the MAC Championship game Buffalo. It's a three
40:33
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite against n I you. This
40:35
Speaker 1: game is inside in Detroit. Buffalo's offense is legit. They
40:40
Speaker 1: have a very good offense there thirty five and SMP
40:42
Speaker 1: right now. They can score a ton of points forte
40:45
Speaker 1: thirty one, thirty. They score a ton of points. N
40:49
Speaker 1: I you. That's a great defense. We know that. But
40:52
Speaker 1: they can't score points and we see weekend and week out.
40:55
Speaker 1: That if you're defense and they have a kind of
40:57
Speaker 1: a slower defense, if your defense cannot match up athletically
41:03
Speaker 1: with another defense Michigan, Ohio State. Buffalo has athletes at
41:07
Speaker 1: wide receiver, they have an athlete at quarterback. You can
41:09
Speaker 1: throw the ball. I think this game is not is
41:11
Speaker 1: not close. Also, Buffalo's defense lastly SMP, so they're able
41:15
Speaker 1: to play defense as well. And now you in my opinion,
41:18
Speaker 1: just has no chance to keep this game very close
41:20
Speaker 1: because again, no offensive output whatsoever for them. If you
41:24
Speaker 1: look at their offense, they're a hundred and offensive SMP
41:27
Speaker 1: according to Bill calling it that's atrocious. They've lost their
41:29
Speaker 1: last two games because they can't score points, and scored
41:31
Speaker 1: seven against Miami of Ohio at home and lost that game.
41:35
Speaker 1: So give me Buffalo here in minus three and a half. Yeah,
41:40
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people don't know who Tyree
41:42
Speaker 1: Jackson is. He's really good the Buffalo quarterback. He's a
41:45
Speaker 1: post prospect. By the way, he's like six seven. It's
41:47
Speaker 1: like a monster. And Buffalo has got athletic receivers. Um.
41:54
Speaker 1: I I think Buffalo is going to be a threat
41:56
Speaker 1: in a ball game. They can compete with somebody in
41:59
Speaker 1: a Power of five Frits because they have some athletes.
42:01
Speaker 1: I don't know, maybe on the defensive side when it
42:04
Speaker 1: comes to a Power five conference, But I'm with Jeff Northern.
42:07
Speaker 1: I was just gonna have to go three yards here,
42:10
Speaker 1: three yards here, four yards here to earn their their
42:14
Speaker 1: money in this game where Buffalo is just got way
42:17
Speaker 1: too many explosive um players. And like I said, Harry
42:20
Speaker 1: Jackson's is he's he's very, very raw, but he has
42:26
Speaker 1: flashes where you're like wow, I mean it's kidding, and
42:29
Speaker 1: he's got some legs on on me. He's a big boy.
42:31
Speaker 1: So I actually, I actually like this play. Do you
42:34
Speaker 1: know who loves Buffalo and their quarterback, our good friend
42:39
Speaker 1: black Jack Fletcher. And because of that, because of the
42:43
Speaker 1: number of times he's bet I'm Buffalo this year, I
42:46
Speaker 1: feel like, in solidarity, I'm gonna go with it. You
42:51
Speaker 1: don't even like this pick because I said it, You
42:53
Speaker 1: look at his black Jack said it. I like it
42:55
Speaker 1: because everybody said it. I think there's like you're on it.
42:59
Speaker 1: You come to you come to the games from an
43:00
Speaker 1: entirely different way then Blackjack does. So I've got two
43:04
Speaker 1: people who look at the games in different ways, saying
43:07
Speaker 1: to me, Buffalo, Buffalo, Buffalo, and then Paul, he's coming
43:10
Speaker 1: at it from his entirely a different way. He even
43:12
Speaker 1: got the name of the quarterback right. Like if he's
43:15
Speaker 1: getting the name of the quarterback right, then it feels
43:17
Speaker 1: like there's like any Johnson, by the way, is a
43:23
Speaker 1: wide receiver, Paul, you're talking about who's their stud wide receiver?
43:27
Speaker 1: The rad three. You're welcome. Everything's working for us. What
43:32
Speaker 1: do they call the Buffalo team the Bulls? The Bulls?
43:37
Speaker 1: I mean, so then like we gotta be you like Buffalo.
43:41
Speaker 1: Jeff black Jack likes Buffalo. Paul got the name right
43:45
Speaker 1: of the quarterback, and I knew the nickname. That's like
43:50
Speaker 1: if that isn't like high level metrics right there for
43:54
Speaker 1: why Buffalo should be part of our part of our
43:58
Speaker 1: part lay, paula Duca give us the eighth winner in
44:03
Speaker 1: our parlay. Monday night, Washington Redskins. Is that game at
44:14
Speaker 1: seven or is it six and a half against the
44:15
Speaker 1: Philadelpi Eagles. That game is at six and a half.
44:22
Speaker 1: I'm gonna play the Skins plus the six and half.
44:25
Speaker 1: I keep on trying and trying and trying to I
44:33
Speaker 1: guess pushed this Eagle team and they got too many
44:38
Speaker 1: guys out in their secondary and then it didn't get exploited.
44:41
Speaker 1: They got away with although O'Dell asked for a hole
44:44
Speaker 1: every time they got away with a hole in the
44:46
Speaker 1: end zone at the end of that game, he got
44:48
Speaker 1: completely held both times um and they had to settle
44:51
Speaker 1: for a field goal. They're the Giants. The Giants are awful.
44:54
Speaker 1: They mean, they beat the forty niners, they beat the
44:57
Speaker 1: card Girls, who were both awful, and they ahead Philadelphia
45:01
Speaker 1: buried indeed. And I just think that this is not
45:06
Speaker 1: going anywhere. They had to convert another fourth down to
45:09
Speaker 1: Doug Peterson. They're just seems like they're winning teams by
45:12
Speaker 1: the skin of their teeth. Ah. I just I think
45:15
Speaker 1: I'm just off the train. I'm off the train. I
45:17
Speaker 1: just think they're not the same team. And then people
45:19
Speaker 1: say they got the win, Okay, they're gonna move forward,
45:22
Speaker 1: and they still got a shot. I just don't I
45:23
Speaker 1: don't see it. I don't see them progressing. I just
45:31
Speaker 1: don't buy the Eagles this year. I just called McCoy
45:34
Speaker 1: the Redskins seven. That was the other part. Mcco six
45:41
Speaker 1: and a half. How's this game not seven and a half? Elf?
45:44
Speaker 1: I don't get it. What do you think, Chad? I
45:48
Speaker 1: hate this pick. That's why it's to pick the play.
45:53
Speaker 1: Uh uh, I know what to say. I want to
46:01
Speaker 1: win twenty dollars. That's what you want to say. What's
46:03
Speaker 1: your net? What's your other favorite pick? After this? I'm
46:07
Speaker 1: giving you seven? You want nine? Uh? Paul, I need
46:18
Speaker 1: you to give me like a trash, I'll take I'll
46:23
Speaker 1: take the Colts. I'm done watching Blake Bortles player and
46:26
Speaker 1: I think that I don't. I hate playing Road Favorite,
46:31
Speaker 1: but like now, I'm not gonna go with Joe Public
46:33
Speaker 1: the Colts. The whole world's on the Colds and Jacksonville
46:37
Speaker 1: is is like literally collapsing. I mean, Josh Allen beat him,
46:46
Speaker 1: beat them yesterday, and now they go against Andrew Luck
46:49
Speaker 1: and Marlon Mack and those guys are rolling right now. Um,
46:55
Speaker 1: I can roll with the Colts. But like again, that's
46:57
Speaker 1: like the child's gonna video that pick. I was looking
47:02
Speaker 1: because I was actually going to take. I was going
47:05
Speaker 1: to take the Jacks. The Jacks. Yeah, so it's a
47:09
Speaker 1: chap play. But that's why I'm saying, like I don't understand,
47:13
Speaker 1: you know, like I said that the Texan line to
47:15
Speaker 1: me is is is a line that where after that
47:17
Speaker 1: game is played tonight, I don't think it's gonna sway
47:19
Speaker 1: that much. But do you think it's it's a bad line.
47:22
Speaker 1: I get it. There's a lot of lines this week
47:25
Speaker 1: where there's a lot of road favorite so you have
47:28
Speaker 1: to choose which one you want listen. To be honest
47:30
Speaker 1: with you, I could choose guy could roll with Kansas
47:33
Speaker 1: City minus eight hundred. I mean, you do you think
47:36
Speaker 1: that that Kansas City is not going to beat the
47:39
Speaker 1: Oakland Raiders but more than fifteen points? I like the
47:43
Speaker 1: idea of I don't know if I like him at
47:46
Speaker 1: minus fifteen, But can we include the amount of money line?
47:53
Speaker 1: I guess I mean lower the odds obviously, but the payout.
47:56
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean the they any read off of
47:58
Speaker 1: buy it's like sixteen and two by the way, I mean,
48:01
Speaker 1: and they just they mean they gave up well not
48:03
Speaker 1: twenty four but thirty four, but a lot of points
48:06
Speaker 1: for Lamar Jack. What is Kansas City? You gonna put
48:08
Speaker 1: up on that defense? Defense? And then it is car
48:12
Speaker 1: gonna play limped off the field again. God knows who's
48:15
Speaker 1: gonna be playing this week. Let's do Kansas City money line. Okay, wow,
48:23
Speaker 1: that's your money. Get on my pacifier a nipple? What up? Well,
48:30
Speaker 1: we we gotta win, man. How about this? How about this,
48:33
Speaker 1: pol I'll suck. I watched the whole game. How about
48:36
Speaker 1: how about this, Paul, You get out your fucking thank
48:40
Speaker 1: you cards and send me one for getting as closer
48:43
Speaker 1: to winning a fucking parlay. I'm playing a five teamer, Atlanta.
48:48
Speaker 1: I already got it down, Atlanta. What did you hate?
48:51
Speaker 1: Go ahead, you go play all your trash picks and
48:53
Speaker 1: let's see how you do against us. M hmmm. Are
48:59
Speaker 1: you guys ready? Are you guys ready? Are you guys
49:02
Speaker 1: ready to be blown away? Yes? Because it is time.
49:08
Speaker 1: We are talking about the A A C Championship Game.
49:19
Speaker 1: A A C Memphis Memphis Memphis U c F. U
49:25
Speaker 1: c F is a three and a half point favorite.
49:28
Speaker 1: Their last game, Memphis was winning in the first half.
49:31
Speaker 1: They dominated at the line of scrimmage, they ended up
49:34
Speaker 1: with more yards. U c F is now a favorite,
49:38
Speaker 1: and they're missing their best player in their quarterback who
49:42
Speaker 1: had a horrific knee injury. Give me Memphis plus three
49:46
Speaker 1: and a half Memphis plus three and a half boom
49:53
Speaker 1: Shy should have bet this game when it came out
49:55
Speaker 1: at seven, UM, because I love men. I've made a
50:00
Speaker 1: lot of money this year depending on Memphis. UM, and
50:03
Speaker 1: it is Uh. They their offensive line is really good,
50:08
Speaker 1: the average almost seven yards of carry. UM. You mentioned
50:12
Speaker 1: UCF missing their quarterback and look South Florida, who they played,
50:16
Speaker 1: is not very good on Friday or Saturday wherever they
50:18
Speaker 1: played up and it was Friday night, UM, and Mackenzie
50:21
Speaker 1: Milton's injury, that that's gonna be tough. It wasn't just
50:24
Speaker 1: it wasn't just a bad injury. Is horrific injury when
50:28
Speaker 1: you just look at your knee like that, and if
50:30
Speaker 1: you looked at the reaction on the sidelines, that shows
50:32
Speaker 1: you everything that that that you need to look. We've
50:34
Speaker 1: seen I've seen a lot of injuries. I've seen a
50:36
Speaker 1: tip fib, you know, like a guy breaking his lower
50:38
Speaker 1: leg and half. I've had my leg basically snap at half. UM.
50:41
Speaker 1: I've seen this a good ankle. I've seen some some
50:43
Speaker 1: bad stuff. But the reaction yes on on Friday night
50:47
Speaker 1: I think it was when they played was of like horror,
50:50
Speaker 1: like guys ran away from the scene. South Florida who
50:54
Speaker 1: was on the sidel ran over. They called the ambulance
50:56
Speaker 1: right away, like it was. I think that's just it's
50:59
Speaker 1: emotionally difficult when you pull back during the game. Yeah, yeah,
51:04
Speaker 1: you keep playing your beating uc USF but you when
51:07
Speaker 1: you pull back, you prepare for this week. You realize
51:10
Speaker 1: your your your leader is not on the huddle all week.
51:12
Speaker 1: He's not in the meeting room. He's you know, he's
51:15
Speaker 1: in the hospital, still dealing with this. I agree with you.
51:18
Speaker 1: Memphis is highly motivated to win this game. Um. I
51:21
Speaker 1: think they win this game out right. I actually wanted
51:23
Speaker 1: McKenny to play, and it's I I feel so sorry
51:26
Speaker 1: for him because I really think Memphis. A lot of
51:28
Speaker 1: people forget the Temple put up five hundred yards in
51:31
Speaker 1: offense on UCS. They have not played a better offensive
51:36
Speaker 1: team since then. Like he said, U S F UM
51:40
Speaker 1: is very very average UM and Jets. Right, Memphis struggle
51:45
Speaker 1: a little bit early with Houston because Houston UM last
51:49
Speaker 1: week has very athletic UM wide receivers. They could throw
51:52
Speaker 1: downhill and down the field, and they started freshman quarterback
51:57
Speaker 1: and he was just strolling stuff up to graps and
51:58
Speaker 1: after that was over with the offensive line, like Jeff Seteth,
52:01
Speaker 1: Memphis just took over and they can run the football
52:04
Speaker 1: and they got a dynamic running back too, so I
52:07
Speaker 1: think they're gonna run the ball down their throat too.
52:09
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's tough to say. How ENTI you to
52:13
Speaker 1: get this line? Seven? Still get it at three and
52:15
Speaker 1: a half is okay? You know, um and Josh Josh
52:18
Speaker 1: hypel Is gonna have to work some wonders with the
52:21
Speaker 1: backup QB because Memphis is an anful. They're not bad
52:24
Speaker 1: on defense either. Guys. We have our nine team parlay
52:28
Speaker 1: and I feel like, um, I feel like we did
52:33
Speaker 1: some good diligence here and we challenged ourselves and each
52:36
Speaker 1: other and I'm going to read them back and we're
52:38
Speaker 1: gonna win some money. Texas plus seven and a half
52:44
Speaker 1: in the Big twelve Championship game against the Oklahoma Sooners.
52:47
Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons plus three at home against the Baltimore Ravens.
52:53
Speaker 1: Georgia plus thirteen and a half against Alabama. Tampa Bay
52:58
Speaker 1: plus four at home against Carolina Utah the Utes plus
53:03
Speaker 1: four and a half in the pat rolph Championship game
53:06
Speaker 1: against Washington Minnesota plus seven against New England Buffalo Bulls
53:14
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bulls in the MAC minus three and a half
53:18
Speaker 1: against n I You Northern Illinois in the championship game. There,
53:21
Speaker 1: Kansas City on the money line against Oakland. Chad Mollman
53:25
Speaker 1: comes in with an A A C pick. Wild Card
53:30
Speaker 1: Memphis plus three and a half against Central Florida Boys.
53:36
Speaker 1: One more thing that happened in the show. Jeff as
53:39
Speaker 1: always went discussing an injury, was able to say, I've
53:41
Speaker 1: had this injury. No, I'd say, I didn't say that.
53:44
Speaker 1: I said I broke my leg before. Yeah, and I
53:47
Speaker 1: did not just okay at my knee. Trust me. I
53:49
Speaker 1: know you were referring to an injury that became a
53:51
Speaker 1: conversation about seeing another type of injury that you had
53:54
Speaker 1: ten surgeries. Yeah, well, listen, in a long time, every
53:58
Speaker 1: injury that non amantic kind on my lower body. Luckily
54:01
Speaker 1: my upper body has been say spared. You're like the
54:04
Speaker 1: most fragile six pound guy. That's what you want to
54:09
Speaker 1: call it. Fragile, fragile. Thanks for listening to I'll never
54:15
Speaker 1: sit after your face. Thanks for listening to the favorites.
54:18
Speaker 1: We have shows every Monday Wednesday, and Friday. Download our
54:21
Speaker 1: free free free app today. Please rate and review our show.
54:27
Speaker 1: Paula Duca, Jeff Schwartz, thanks for joining me. See you everybody,
54:31
Speaker 1: See everybody, See everybody. On Wednesday when I talked to
54:34
Speaker 1: Scooch bookmaker, to the world until next time.