Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 375 - 10/16/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 375 - 10/16/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  Hello and welcome to episode 375 of the All Systems Go Sports
• 0:07
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:10
  I am your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:17
  Happy Thursday. Our work week is coming to a
• 0:20
  close and we got the return of the NFL Week 7 here kicking off
• 0:24
  tonight, Thursday Night Football primetime matchup, Pittsburgh
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  Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals and I tell you what guys, always the
• 0:31
  wait from Monday to Thursday feels like forever.
• 0:33
  Remember on Monday cashing that huge Atlanta Falcons plus what
• 0:36
  was it plus 4 1/2 ticket? Well, the long wait is over or
• 0:39
  the short wait is over because we got another NFL game here to
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  talk about. So I do have a play on tonight's
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  game, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati. It includes a really couple
• 0:49
  really good green star recommended plays from rhythm.
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  I do want to mention because it's a Thursday, it is the
• 0:54
  rhythm rundown day. So if you have not heard or
• 0:58
  aren't aware, every Thursday night we've been doing this
• 1:01
  since week 1 or prior to week 1. I think it was week 0 of college
• 1:04
  football last week in in August. But we do a Rhythm Rundown live
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  stream on Twitter. So it's 6:00 Eastern Time
• 1:11
  tonight, myself and my buddy Kate Harper, we'll be having a
• 1:14
  rundown of the full breakdown of tonight's game, all our rhythm
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  system matches for college on Saturday, all of our Sunday
• 1:21
  matches. So it's always a lot of fun.
• 1:23
  And the whole goal of the rhythm rundown is to not only hopefully
• 1:26
  identify some winning bets and help people cash some tickets,
• 1:29
  but the bigger goal is to teach users how to use rhythm to your
• 1:33
  advantage. So Rhythm, obviously you guys
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  know I partnered with rhythm for going on two years at this
• 1:37
  point. I love rhythm because it allows
• 1:39
  me to operate like my own personal professional better.
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  And what I mean by that is, you know, I'm a data-driven better.
• 1:45
  So I'm focusing on what the market is doing, what it opened
• 1:49
  at, where it is now, how it's moving, splits system matches,
• 1:52
  all these other factors. We look at wise guys do it
• 1:55
  completely differently. So true professional betters,
• 1:58
  they're not looking at the market, they're playing
• 1:59
  discrepancy plays. So they're operating as their
• 2:02
  own sports books in a way where they're setting their own power
• 2:05
  ratings. They're coming up with their own
• 2:07
  lines on games. And when their lines are way off
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  from what the odds makers are offering, the bigger
• 2:12
  discrepancy, the bigger the advantage.
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  So if they say, hey, I have this dog at plus 1.7 and the dog is
• 2:19
  plus 3 1/2 in the betting market, Sharp's going to hammer
• 2:22
  the dog obviously because that provides an actual value or an
• 2:25
  actionable edge against the sports book.
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  So Rhythm provides you all these AI backed models.
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  So they'll tell you, hey, we have this game at 3.16.2.
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  And to me, and we always talk about this on the Rhythm
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  rundown, you know, there are some people who like to just
• 2:40
  say, hey, give me the green star recommended plays, the smart
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  signals, the best plays, I'll tail them.
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  What I like to do is kind of start with my own market
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  research and then use Rhythm as that cherry on top.
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  So again, if I'm looking at the dog, they're matching up for me.
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  Sharp reverse line movement, low bets, higher dollars, tons of
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  bet splits and they're plus seven in the market and Rhythm
• 3:01
  says they should be plus 5.1 boom.
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  That's just another cherry on top helps me feel more excited
• 3:07
  about my bet. So with Rhythm again, you can
• 3:10
  use promo code start 25 for 25% off.
• 3:14
  There's a refer a friend discount.
• 3:15
  You can also join the leaderboard contest, hopefully
• 3:17
  make some money, but we will be having our regular rhythm
• 3:20
  rundown tonight, 6:00 PM Eastern Time.
• 3:22
  So all you got to do is get on Twitter.
• 3:24
  You can follow me at Josh under score insights and we'll go
• 3:27
  live. You'll see it on the homepage.
• 3:28
  You go to my account. The profile icon will be lit up
• 3:32
  with a little border. You hit that boom, you're right
• 3:34
  in. So look forward to seeing all of
• 3:36
  you in the rundown tonight and also want to thank everyone who
• 3:39
  has tuned in. You know from from day one here.
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  It really does mean a lot. Tonight should be fun too,
• 3:43
  because my buddy Kate Harper, I'm in Boston or I'm going to
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  I'm in I'm in a suburb outside of Boston.
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  My buddy Kate Harper, he's an Ohio guy.
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  So he actually direct messaged me or he texted me this morning.
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  He said I'm going to the game tonight.
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  So he is going to the Bengals game and he said I'm trying to,
• 4:00
  you know, set it up so that I can do the live stream, the
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  rundown from the tailgate at the Bengals.
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  So as long as his, you know, Internet works and everything,
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  it should be pretty awesome where again, he'll be coming to
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  us live from by the Bengals stadium here tonight.
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  So that should be pretty cool. Next I will be joining my buddy
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  Patrick Maher as I do every Thursday night, late night, 9:00
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  Eastern Time. I'll be joining Patrick on the
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  visa live Mad Dog radio show. So very much looking forward to
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  that and hopefully we'll we'll have a winner here tonight in
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  the NFL. Now looking back toward last
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  night, guys, man, we're so hot. We are due for some team to let
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  us down and unfortunately it was the Delaware Blue Hens because
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  that game was pretty disgusting from start to finish.
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  The really frustrating part about that game.
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  So obviously, you know, lost O and 1 -, 1 unit really like the
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  rest. First tired advantage, good
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  sharp steam, good sharp splits. Hope you know, it looked like
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  there was an advantage with a quarterback being a a veteran
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  type guy versus the young rookie making a second career start.
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  But what happened? Delaware pretty much gets blown
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  out. They lost 3825 really wasn't
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  that close and was pretty much just disgusting from the start
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  because Delaware committed all these turnovers.
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  First play of the game, they have this big deep pass down the
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  middle the the tight end gets absolutely crushed and he
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  fumbles the ball. But it looked like it was
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  targeting. They reviewed it.
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  They said it wasn't targeting. So instead of, you know, a catch
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  or, you know, getting a 15 yard penalty or getting that guy
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  ejected, no targeting guy fumble, they brought it back and
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  scored. So literally from the very
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  start, we're kind of behind the 8 ball there.
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  So sometimes that's going to happen again.
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  Good sharp steam to Delaware, you know -1 1/2 up to -3 didn't
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  show up for us. So I couldn't get the winner
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  there last night. But hey, you're not going to win
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  every time. So let's see if we can start a
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  new winning streak here for tonight.
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  So that being said, one play today, guys, we're going to
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  focus. And again, I know there's a
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  college football game, I know there's Major League Baseball,
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  there's hockey. We'll dabble when we see some
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  system matches, but football's treat us pretty well.
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  So let's try to focus on the one big game tonight, see if we can
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  go one and O now full breakdown of tonight's game.
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  Remember this is Amazon prime, so get your prime ready to go
• 6:11
  8:15 PM Eastern Time tonight. Little background with these
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  teams. The Steelers come in four and
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  one They've won three straight just took down the Browns 23 to
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  9 covered as a 6 1/2 point home favorite.
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  You know all the Bengals two and four Remember they started 2 and
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  O Joe Burrow got hurt. They've lost four straight just
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  lost to the Packers 27 to 18. They did cover though, as a 14
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  point Rd. dog. So what have you seen across the
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  market here? This game opened with the
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  Pittsburgh Steelers listed as low as a four point Rd.
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  favorite. And it's pretty clear that early
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  money laid it with Pittsburgh because we've seen this line
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  move -4 up to -5 1/2 in favor of the Steelers.
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  But this is what's really important to me.
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  You know, typically I want to be with a line move, especially if
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  it's a reverse line move where the public is on the other side.
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  And yet again, dead giveaway the lines going to the unpopular
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  side. But I always look at line moves
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  in terms of how far do they go and when and and if and when
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  there's buyback that takes place.
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  Like does it move to us a number that then you start to see the
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  juice get lit up the other way and it starts to kind of come
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  back the other way? Like has the market over
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  adjusted? And it looks like that has
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  happened because Pittsburgh -4 got up to -5 1/2.
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  I think maybe one or two shops got to six.
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  A lot of books didn't get to 6, but anytime it got to 5 1/2,
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  you've then started to see some sharp buyback on the Bengals as
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  an inflated contrarian divisional primetime dog.
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  So how do I know that? Well, first, the fact that we
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  aren't at 6-6 is a key number. Tells me the books don't want to
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  go to 6 for fear of giving out that key number to Bengals
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  backers. But also if you pay attention to
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  the juice. If you're looking at your Odds
• 7:45
  Logic live Odds page, remember 7 day free trial, 50% off your
• 7:48
  first month. Use Odds logic.com/josh 123 to
• 7:52
  get those advantages. But if you look at the juice,
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  you're not seeing basically -5 1/2 - 115 - 120 like it's going
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  to six. Most books are -5 1/2 - 110
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  even, or they're plus 5 1/2 - 115 towards Cincinnati.
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  So basically most of the market is leaning back towards
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  Cincinnati, juicing up the Cincinnati side, like maybe it's
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  getting down to five. And what's really important here
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  is the fact that we're sitting at kind of a dead number or a no
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  man's land number, like 5 1/2. You're kind of right in the
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  middle, middle of nowhere. And it's always important to me
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  when you're in that kind of dead zone, where is the next move?
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  So one thing you can do between now and kick off is stare at
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  your live odds page and see which direction the line moves
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  next. Like, does it get up to six?
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  That's obviously a better sign for Pittsburgh, bad sign for
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  Cincinnati. Does it fall down to five?
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  That'll be a great sign for Cincinnati.
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  And again, based on the juice you are seeing, a couple books
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  lean toward that Cincinnati side.
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  You look at the splits, it's really not a huge contrarian
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  play because right now at DraftKings, the Bengals are
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  getting 48% of spread bets, 52% of spread dollars.
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  So it's basically even. But technically that would be
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  low bets, higher dollars on the Bengals.
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  Here's what's important to me, though.
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  Out at Circa in Vegas, 49% of spread bets are on the Bengals,
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  but the Bengals are getting 70% of spread dollars.
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  So basically DraftKings is about even but you look at since he
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  only have the tickets at Circa with 70% of the money, so tells
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  me the bigger sharper wagers out in Vegas are playing the Bengals
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  here. Bengals just be a classic
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  inflated primetime divisional dog.
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  So you're getting a one off heavily back game and you are a
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  primetime dog. Which primetime dogs have
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  treated us very well this year. Knock on wood, let's hope it
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  continues. But primetime dogs are 13 and
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  six against the spread 68% this season and they are 154 and 132
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  ATS 54% with a 3% ROI since 2020.
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  Then listen to this. If you just isolate primetime
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  dogs getting five points or more, they are 73 and 52 against
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  the spread 58% with a 12% ROI since 2020.
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  So primetime dogs have barked and primetime dogs getting five
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  points or more have barked even louder.
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  You also have a just classic buy low sell high where Pittsburgh
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  is on a three-game winning streak, Bengals are on a
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  four-game losing streak. If you look at dogs off a
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  blowout loss or sorry, dogs off of just any kind of loss playing
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  an opponent off a win, they're 15 and 11 against the spread
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  this year, 58 percent, 10% ROI. Cincinnati would also be a
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  classic divisional dog. So built in familiarity,
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  leveling the playing field. The rivalry aspect typically
• 10:34
  benefits the team getting points.
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  If you look at Thursday Night Football divisional dogs since
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  2019, they are 29 and 23 against the spread 56% with a 7% ROI.
• 10:46
  Then just got to mention Mike Tomlin here because Mike Tomlin
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  as you may know is one of the best, almost a auto bet when
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  he's a dog. When Tomlin's a dog, he's 64 and
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  34 against the spread 65%. Twenty 7% ROI.
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  But when Tomlin is a favorite, he's only 93 and one O 1 ATS.
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  That's 48% and if he is a favorite laying 5 or more, he's
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  44 and 52 ATS 46%. So Tomlin has been awesome as a
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  dog has been below water being a below 500 here as a favorite.
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  He's obviously favorite here tonight.
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  Again, if you tell me you want to tease Cincinnati, not going
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  to argue with you. 5 1/2 up to 11 1/2.
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  Then you do go through the seven and the 10.
• 11:27
  So that's notable. Now the totals interesting
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  because it has gone up. That's kind of surprising a bit.
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  Typically you see these, you know, divisional matchups.
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  I have a lot of systems here like prime time divisional
• 11:39
  unders, outdoor divisional unders, but we've seen this
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  total go up from 42 1/2 to 44 1/2.
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  Some shops even at 45. And the splits look good on the
• 11:48
  over 57% bet, 63% dollars at DK and at circa 55% bets, 86%
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  dollars. So both books are showing a
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  pretty good split toward the over and the weather really not
• 12:02
  a factor here in Cincinnati. It's going to be a pretty good
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  night, like mid 50s, clear skies, very modest, like three
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  to five mile per hour winds. So it's not a windy night.
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  It's not, you know, rainy or anything like that.
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  So the weather looks pretty good.
• 12:16
  So again, typically I lean unders.
• 12:18
  I do have a lot of under matches for this game, but I'm going to
• 12:22
  lay off the total because again, it has ticked up here a bit.
• 12:25
  Maybe you want to take this total down like if you tease
• 12:27
  Cincinnati up to 11 1/2. I'm just thinking out loud here.
• 12:30
  I didn't make this bet, but again, because this total has
• 12:33
  risen up, can you take that 44 1/2 down to 38 1/2 and go over
• 12:40
  something like that? That could be worth a look, but
• 12:43
  I'm going to stick with Cincinnati here.
• 12:44
  To me, this is not a sharp play. Again, you do have sharp
• 12:47
  buyback, sneaky sharp buyback on the plus 5 1/2 being juiced up
• 12:51
  and I would love to see between now and kick off these five and
• 12:55
  a halfs get down to five. That would be further evidence
• 12:57
  and validation of big money coming on Cincy.
• 13:00
  But I do have a prime time dog, a divisional dog as well as an
• 13:04
  inflated dog. Like think of it this way.
• 13:06
  If you're laying Pittsburgh -5 1/2, you are getting the
• 13:09
  absolute worst of the number. You could have gotten A4.
• 13:12
  If you're playing Cincy plus 5 1/2, you're getting the best of
• 13:15
  the number. So to me, that's the ultimate
• 13:17
  kind of buy low, sell high system match.
• 13:20
  But this is what really kind of sold me on this play again,
• 13:23
  basically you had me at, you know, prime time divisional dog
• 13:28
  in a heavily back game, inflated dog.
• 13:30
  But then I popped open rhythm and rhythm showed me some
• 13:34
  really, really good system matches on the Bengals.
• 13:36
  I have two models on the game. They are both on the Bengals and
• 13:39
  they are both Green Star recommended plays.
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  And one of them happens to be a smart signal.
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  So I have a smart signal on the Bengals plus 5 1/2.
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  Smart signals are basically the best of the best of what rhythm
• 13:51
  has to offer. And it looks specifically at
• 13:54
  situations like in this spot when the odds are between here
• 13:58
  and here. In this specific situation, it
• 14:02
  is a 67% hit rate on the Bengals plus 5 1/2 and actually has
• 14:07
  Bengals predicted plus 4.4. And again, remember that you
• 14:11
  know the the number opened at 4:00 to begin with.
• 14:13
  So I have a green star smart signal recommended plus 4.4 and
• 14:19
  we can get a 5 1/2. And then I also have another
• 14:21
  system match here where Bengals should be plus 4.5.
• 14:26
  So here's what I was talking about earlier in the in the in
• 14:29
  the the pod. Like if you can do your market
• 14:31
  research based on your live odds pages, look at the movement.
• 14:34
  Let's see where the buyback takes place.
• 14:36
  Where's the juice? What are the split saying low
• 14:38
  bets, higher dollars? What are the system matches
• 14:40
  saying primetime dog, yada yada, fade Rabel, fade Tomlin as a
• 14:46
  favorite and then you can layer in the cherry on top with rhythm
• 14:49
  telling us it should be about a four and a half point game.
• 14:52
  That tells me you have an opportunity here to make a
• 14:55
  data-driven play on the Bengals. Last thing, shop for the best
• 14:59
  price. You do have quite a few books.
• 15:01
  I'm looking at ESPN Bet plus 5 1/2 -, 115, FanDuel plus 5 1/2
• 15:06
  -, 114. But I notice that Bet MGM is
• 15:09
  offering Bengals plus 5 1/2 at -105 So that's what I did.
• 15:14
  I took that reduced juice at at Bet MGM.
• 15:18
  And again, think of it this way. You get a + 5 1/2 - 115.
• 15:22
  I get a + 5 1/2 - 1 O 5. Hopefully the Bengals cover the
• 15:26
  number. We both win our bet.
• 15:27
  But when you're betting Tris first betting to win, I'm going
• 15:29
  to get a little more back because I'm paying less juice
• 15:32
  and a bet Tris first bet to win situation, situation.
• 15:35
  So I'm going with the Bengals plus 5 1/2.
• 15:39
  And I also like the fact that I saw a tweet right as I was about
• 15:43
  to do the pod saying that Trey Hendrickson is out.
• 15:45
  Obviously, that's a bad thing. He's a really good, you know,
• 15:48
  sack artist defensive end for the Bengals.
• 15:51
  And I was thinking, oh, this is going to go up to six.
• 15:53
  It didn't. It stayed right at 5 1/2.
• 15:55
  And a lot of shops stayed juiced toward the Bengals.
• 15:57
  So maybe that means they already thought he was going to miss the
• 16:00
  game or didn't make it that big of a deal.
• 16:03
  But I like the fact that this pretty much stayed where it's
• 16:05
  at, even though Hendrickson is out.
• 16:07
  So Long story short, guys, not a sharp play, but a contrarian
• 16:11
  inflated value play on the Bengals as a dog, division dog,
• 16:15
  primetime dog. Great rhythm system matches
• 16:17
  here. So I'm going Bengals plus 5 1/2.
• 16:20
  Let's go Joe Flacco, by the way, ahead of two quarterbacks been
• 16:24
  combined, 80 years old, 81 years old and Grodgers is 41 and
• 16:28
  Flacco's 40. So let's do it for the old guys
• 16:31
  tonight. But hopefully we have Flacco.
• 16:35
  He covered the number last week against the pack.
• 16:37
  See if we can hopefully cover it here tonight as well.
• 16:40
  So give me Bengals plus 5 1/2. So that about does it guys, just
• 16:44
  a one and done here on a Thursday as as we got again a
• 16:48
  big Thursday football match up here.
• 16:50
  But wrapping things up, I always want to start by saying thank
• 16:53
  you. Thank you for tuning in, Thank
• 16:54
  you for listening, thank you for supporting the pod.
• 16:57
  Thank you for retweeting the pod when I tweeted out.
• 17:00
  It means a lot to me. So if you would like to help me
• 17:02
  grow the podcast, please could you give it a five star review
• 17:05
  on Spotify or iTunes, Click the follow button, leave a comment
• 17:08
  under the review tab, recommend the pod to a friend.
• 17:11
  That'll all be very, very awesome of you to do and I would
• 17:14
  very much appreciate that. Next, if you enjoyed the style
• 17:17
  of betting breakdown, data-driven sharp contrarian
• 17:20
  betting, focusing on line movement, split system matches,
• 17:22
  focusing on numbers and money and splits, not focusing on what
• 17:26
  our heart or our bias or our gut is telling us.
• 17:29
  Again, you learn very quickly in sports betting.
• 17:31
  If you bet based on what you think or want or hope to happen,
• 17:34
  you're going to be losing very, very quickly and you're going to
• 17:36
  lose a lot. So again, there's no magic, you
• 17:38
  know, formula when it comes to being a winning sports better,
• 17:42
  but making bets based on numbers and not your your bias.
• 17:46
  That's pretty much the start to making sharp plays here.
• 17:49
  So if you want to learn more about data-driven betting, you
• 17:52
  got someone in your life who could use some data-driven tips.
• 17:55
  You want to again, let me know you appreciate the pod and
• 17:57
  support the pod. I would love for you to go to
• 17:59
  Amazon.com and then type in the everything guide to Sports
• 18:02
  betting and the NFL Sharp Betting playbook.
• 18:04
  Those are my two books that I've written.
• 18:06
  Very proud of both, but they pretty much give you everything
• 18:09
  you need to know about a data-driven approach to the
• 18:12
  sports betting world. So if you want to pick up one or
• 18:14
  both of my books, give them a five star review on Amazon and
• 18:18
  then bring them to the sports book.
• 18:20
  I'll sign them for you. I'll buy a beer or ginger ale
• 18:22
  and we'll sweat some sharp, data-driven place together.
• 18:25
  Next, you have Rhythm and Juice Real.
• 18:26
  Well, I talked about Rhythm earlier, but go download Rhythm
• 18:29
  again. Great for their AI backed models
• 18:31
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• 18:33
  Use promo code START 25 for 25% off.
• 18:36
  Join the leaderboard contest. It went up to 1000 bucks each
• 18:39
  week. If you have the best created
• 18:41
  model and then Juice Real. Juice Real has so many great
• 18:44
  different features. The first one that I really like
• 18:46
  is the fact that you can support the pod by getting the official
• 18:49
  all systems go best bet picks from Juice Reel.
• 18:52
  It costs $4.99 a week. I consider it a tip jar.
• 18:57
  Again, you go, you go out to dinner.
• 18:59
  The waiter, the waitress takes care of you.
• 19:00
  Give him a good tip. You know your water glasses
• 19:02
  getting low, they're right there to fill your water glass.
• 19:05
  That's always, you know, they check in on you.
• 19:07
  How are things going? You go up, you go to the bar,
• 19:09
  you know, you get a water anytime you're you know, I'm,
• 19:13
  I'm, I'm like an IPA guy. My switch back, my, you know,
• 19:16
  my, my blue moons getting low. They're right there to get me
• 19:19
  another one. What do you do?
• 19:21
  You tip your, your podcast host just like you would tip your
• 19:23
  bartender. So you can do it in the form of
• 19:25
  those $4.99 a week best bet picks.
• 19:28
  And I would very much appreciate that because you're supporting
• 19:32
  the pod. And then also you're going to
• 19:33
  get the Robo Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush
• 19:35
  indicators, the arbitrage plays, the shop for the best line
• 19:38
  features all available when you download Juice reel.
• 19:40
  So download rhythm, download Juice reel, give them a five
• 19:43
  star review in the App Store while you're at it.
• 19:46
  Next, do you have a live odds page?
• 19:48
  If you don't, you need one. I honestly don't know how people
• 19:50
  bet on sports and when if they don't have a live odds page
• 19:53
  because you got to know the most basic important thing.
• 19:56
  Which way is the line moved again?
• 19:58
  I see all the time on Twitter and like these gambling shows on
• 20:00
  TV. Where people don't even mention,
• 20:02
  oh, the line open at 4:00 and it's up to five.
• 20:05
  We're open at 4:00, it's down to three.
• 20:07
  Like that is so important and people don't even like pay
• 20:10
  attention to that. Again, that's telling you a huge
• 20:13
  part of the story. So the best odds odds live odds
• 20:17
  page around. It's odd logic and I would love
• 20:19
  for you guys to give it a shot. It gives you the opening column,
• 20:21
  the current numbers, shop for the best line, get the best
• 20:24
  price, identify steam odds get lit up in red as they move.
• 20:27
  You can pull the line history, see the juice and where the
• 20:30
  buyback has occurred. It's all available to you when
• 20:33
  you give Odds Logic a shot. So I gave you the special link
• 20:36
  before, but make sure you use it because it'll give you 7 day
• 20:39
  free trial, 50% off your first month.
• 20:41
  That's Odds logic.com/josh 123 Next.
• 20:47
  You know what a betting exchange is.
• 20:48
  It's kind of like a sports book, but it's different.
• 20:51
  It's different because you are not betting against the house
• 20:53
  and when you lose, the house isn't taking your money.
• 20:56
  Betting exchange is basically you betting against other
• 20:59
  betters. So if I lose a bet, I'd much
• 21:01
  rather another better gets my money versus obviously the
• 21:05
  house. In betting exchanges, the really
• 21:07
  cool thing is you get better numbers because you don't have
• 21:09
  to pay the juice that the odds maker set at the sports books.
• 21:13
  So you're getting better juice prices and when you win, you're
• 21:14
  not going to get limited or kicked out.
• 21:16
  So I would love for you guys to give a shot to Novick NOVIG.
• 21:21
  Download the app, you can fund it.
• 21:23
  And once you deposit your money, there's a little promo code put
• 21:27
  in Josh 123 that'll give you 100% deposit match up to 25
• 21:32
  bucks. And for example, I'm looking at
• 21:34
  the Novig odds for this, this game tonight, you could play
• 21:38
  Steelers -5 1/2 at +100 or Bengals plus 5 1/2 at -1 O3.
• 21:44
  So you're almost always getting a better juice price from Novig.
• 21:47
  And when you win, you can, you know, cash out just as you would
• 21:50
  a sports book. So that's another great reason
• 21:52
  to give no Vega shot. But anyway, guys, that about
• 21:55
  does it for episode 375 of the ASG pod on a big Thirsty
• 21:59
  Thursday. As always, two final thoughts,
• 22:01
  whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
• 22:04
  Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
• 22:06
  Sun down in Connecticut, the Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge
• 22:10
  Park, Casino, MGM Springfield, the Nash on the border of
• 22:13
  Massachusetts and New Hampshire. Or out in the desert where the
• 22:16
  true grinders get down, where Billy Walters sends his number
• 22:18
  runners, where the lowest juice possible is found at the South
• 22:21
  Point. Or sweat and Sharp can train
• 22:22
  plays, jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
• 22:24
  When you cash a big ticket at Circo, you're going to walk up
• 22:27
  to me and man, Delaware, freaking Delaware.
• 22:31
  Come on, man, Turnovers left and right, Sharp line move.
• 22:34
  You lose out right. Sometimes that's going to
• 22:36
  happen. You make a sharp bet team on the
• 22:38
  field does not come through for you.
• 22:41
  But again, keeping us hungry, keeping us honest.
• 22:43
  You can't win every game. Anytime it's funny, anytime I
• 22:46
  like lose a better. Have a bad day and my wife is
• 22:49
  like, oh, what's wrong? And I'm like, oh, I went, you
• 22:51
  know, one and two or O and five or whatever the case may be.
• 22:54
  She's always says, Josh, you can't win them all, so you can't
• 22:57
  win them all. But we can make sharp,
• 22:59
  data-driven plays and grind out winners long term.
• 23:02
  So as always, guys, whether we go O and 11 and O 5 and OO and
• 23:06
  five hot, cold, somewhere in the middle when we're, you know,
• 23:10
  super hot and can't miss or we're ice cold and can't the
• 23:12
  broadside of a barn. Just got to not get too high or
• 23:15
  too low and just stick to the model in the blueprint.
• 23:17
  Bypass games with red flags, get down on games that Chuck off our
• 23:21
  boxes so we can do that. Find games that are against the
• 23:24
  public with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays
• 23:27
  and get that CLV. If we can do that and I'm
• 23:29
  confident that we can, then guess what we're going to be
• 23:32
  successful sports vetters. So have a great Thirsty
• 23:34
  Thursday, everybody. Let's go Bengals plus 5 1/2.
• 23:37
  I will see you at the Rhythm Rundown live stream on Twitter
• 23:40
  at 6:00 tonight. And if you have SiriusXM radio,
• 23:44
  TuneIn, because I'll be on at 9:00 with my buddy Patrick Maher
• 23:47
  and we always have a good time. I got to catch up with Patrick,
• 23:50
  see what he's up to. But good luck everybody.
• 23:52
  I'll see you tomorrow for a big Friday edition.
• 23:54
  That'll be episode 376 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
• 23:58
  podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody, and let's
• 24:02
  go Joe Flacco.