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Surrey-SkyTrain-Mania | Political Capital Daily · Political Capital with Rob Shaw

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  Speaker 1: or chartered flights. For more, visit Helijet.com. It's Wednesday, October 21st, 2026,
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  Speaker 1: and this is Political Capital Daily. Well, good morning. Happy
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  Speaker 1: Wednesday to you. Just a few days left in the
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  Speaker 1: BC election campaign. Three days.
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  Speaker 2: Three.
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  Speaker 1: Oh, my God. Three days.
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  Speaker 2: Oh, we're so close.
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  Speaker 1: Oh, Jillian Oliver here joining me this morning. So close, Jillian.
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  Speaker 1: I apologize if there's extra gravitas, if there's extra bass
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  Speaker 1: listening to me this morning. I've got a combination of
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  Speaker 1: the man cold and the election cold put together. The
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  Speaker 1: man election cold. Which I, and I have 100% confidence
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  Speaker 1: in saying this, is worse than childbirth. So I'm just
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  Speaker 1: going to go ahead and say that out loud to everyone.
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  Speaker 2: I guess congratulations then. Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: It's bad. It's real bad. It's mildly uncomfortable.
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  Speaker 2: Oh, horrible.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, I know.
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  Speaker 3: I know.
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  Speaker 1: Anyways, we'll hopefully get back. in the old saddle and
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  Speaker 1: better for the big election day on Saturday. But in
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  Speaker 1: the meantime, wrapping up the final days of the election
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  Speaker 1: campaign on the docket this morning, this kind of scramble time,
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  Speaker 1: but we do know the Greens are doing a media
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  Speaker 1: availability with their candidate, leader Emily Lowen, candidate Raj Sahota
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  Speaker 1: on leaseholder protections this morning in Victoria, canvassing on Salt
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  Speaker 1: Spring Island. Not quite sure what the Conservatives and NDP
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  Speaker 1: are up to today, but they are pretty much pivoting
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  Speaker 1: in real time in their campaigns. And Jillian, one big
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  Speaker 1: example of that was yesterday, an announcement from the conservatives
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  Speaker 1: that they would follow new Surrey mayor, Doug McCallum's lead
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  Speaker 1: and extend the SkyTrain from Surrey city center to Newton.
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  Speaker 1: And not 30 minutes later, the BC NDP out with
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  Speaker 1: its own press release saying, Hey, you know what? We'd
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  Speaker 1: like to extend the SkyTrain to Newton too. And then
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  Speaker 1: the NDP said, turning around and saying, you haven't costed this, conservatives.
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  Speaker 1: And the conservatives saying, well, you're only putting $ 250 million
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  Speaker 1: aside from your rapid bus promise. You haven't costed it either.
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  Speaker 1: And the two of them fighting over that. But fascinating
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  Speaker 1: to watch them pivoting. It reminded me a little bit
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  Speaker 1: of bridge tolls in the 2017 election campaigns in real time,
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  Speaker 1: unfurling major transportation announcements based on kind of the moment.
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  Speaker 1: And this moment is Doug McCallum and his incredible work
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  Speaker 1: third return to politics in Surrey on a SkyTrain promise
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  Speaker 1: to Newton that he doesn't actually control, and all the
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  Speaker 1: provincial politicians falling in line, Jillian, in record time on
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  Speaker 1: the fly in the election campaign.
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  Speaker 2: It's, yeah, I mean, I feel like it's, like, a
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  Speaker 2: thousand times messier than the bridge toll one, because this is, like,
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  Speaker 2: a thousand times messier snap election. It's, like, more politically
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  Speaker 2: motivated infrastructure promises, which is so wild, because I feel
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  Speaker 2: like we were just talking about the Massey Tunnel and
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  Speaker 2: how the, like, hyper-politicization of that infrastructure project has led
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  Speaker 2: to terrible outcomes. planning processes for transportation. TransLink is in
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  Speaker 2: a huge budget crisis. They've been having huge shortfalls, kind
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  Speaker 2: of limping along. The NDP has promised to come up
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  Speaker 2: with a sustainable funding model, but they haven't said how
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  Speaker 2: they're going to do that. The Conservatives have promised not
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  Speaker 2: to raise taxes, and they have not promised to come
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  Speaker 2: up with a I don't think either of them promised
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  Speaker 2: to extend the SkyTrain to UBC, which is, like, a
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  Speaker 2: much more probably urgent and, like, ready project. I think
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  Speaker 2: only the Greens promised that, that municipalities have been lobbying
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  Speaker 2: for for, like, a decade or longer. And so, I mean,
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  Speaker 2: maybe he's cutting the gas tax. Like, it's such a mess.
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  Speaker 2: And just like the Massey, everybody is kind of just
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  Speaker 2: left waiting for, like, responsible governance and some like reasonable
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  Speaker 2: plans so that we can get to where we need
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  Speaker 2: to go.
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  Speaker 1: Well, the SkyTrain line under construction at Langley is massively
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  Speaker 1: over budget. I think it's like $ 6 billion now. So
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  Speaker 1: this is a multi-billion dollar promise for Newton. And no
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  Speaker 1: one knows where that money's coming from. And the capital
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  Speaker 1: budget is under constraint. And as you pointed out, no
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  Speaker 1: one is talking really about raising a bunch of money
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  Speaker 1: in their election campaign. So it's a little... odd, but
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  Speaker 1: I guess Surrey is just so important. I mean, it
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  Speaker 1: is the single most important electoral area in the province that,
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  Speaker 1: you know, these campaigns are willing to make announcements and
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  Speaker 1: figure out how to pay for them later because there's
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  Speaker 1: 10 ridings at play, more than the entire northern half
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  Speaker 1: of BC. In the 2020 election, the NDP held seven
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  Speaker 1: of them and the Liberals held two and the NDP
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  Speaker 1: slipped a little bit and they ended up with four
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  Speaker 1: in 2024 and the Conservatives had six And that is
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  Speaker 1: where we head into this next election with several kind
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  Speaker 1: of battleground swing ridings, like Suri Guilford, where the result
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  Speaker 1: for the NDP was only 22 votes for Gary landslide big. Uh, and, uh,
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  Speaker 1: and even, uh, Suri city center, which was 232 votes. Uh,
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  Speaker 1: so that for Amna Shah. So there are ridings there
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  Speaker 1: that we're going to be watching on election night that
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  Speaker 1: if they fall one way or another are going to
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  Speaker 1: indicate a pretty good chance of that party winning a
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  Speaker 1: majority because flying through Surrey gives you the momentum that
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  Speaker 1: you need on the path to a majority. And I
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  Speaker 1: guess that's why it's easy for parties to come out
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  Speaker 1: and say, we'll build this thing with no money, no budget,
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  Speaker 1: no plan, simply because they look at Doug McCallum and say,
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  Speaker 1: that guy won. This must be a vote getter. We're
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  Speaker 1: going to do whatever we can. And to be fair,
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  Speaker 1: I guess, Doug McCallum came in in 2018 with a
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  Speaker 1: plan to get rid of LRT to Surrey. and demand
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  Speaker 1: that it be SkyTrain. And he bent the NDP to
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  Speaker 1: his will on that because by 2020 in the snap election,
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  Speaker 1: John Horgan had got around to saying, fine, fine, no LRT,
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  Speaker 1: we'll do SkyTrain. This is the second time Doug McCallum
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  Speaker 1: has just sailed in and reset the political agenda right
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  Speaker 1: before a snap election. So it's fascinating to watch, Julian.
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  Speaker 1: I think we'll be spending a lot of time trying
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  Speaker 1: to figure out Surrey on election night. Have you started
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  Speaker 1: wrapping your mind around election night yet? No. All the
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  Speaker 1: different things. We've done a few of these together. It's
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  Speaker 1: always a rush, isn't it? Yeah, no kidding.
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  Speaker 2: No, I got to do some homework on my Surrey ridings.
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  Speaker 2: It's not a place where the greens are super, super competitive,
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  Speaker 2: so I don't know them as well. So I got
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  Speaker 2: to do some homework because I agree that's where all
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  Speaker 2: eyes are going to be counting those votes. We could
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  Speaker 2: be watching those late into the night. We might not
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  Speaker 2: even know on the night of. It's gearing up to
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  Speaker 2: be a chaotic.
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  Speaker 1: One, I think. It is, yeah. And we're going to see,
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  Speaker 1: you know, Surrey as a battleground for Centre BC as well,
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  Speaker 1: because Eleanor Sturco going to run in Surrey South, and
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  Speaker 1: she's up against the Conservatives' Megan Knight, who's the White
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  Speaker 1: Rock mayor. And the two of them are going to
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  Speaker 1: battle it out in this kind of sort of primary.
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  Speaker 1: But at the same time, you've got, you know, the
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  Speaker 1: NDP sitting there possibly benefiting from that split. And what was...
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  Speaker 1: the riding, you know, that had one of the biggest
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  Speaker 1: margins for the Conservatives on paper with Brent Chapman in
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  Speaker 1: 2024 could end up being a split, but maybe even
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  Speaker 1: the NDP pickup. So, like, it's going to be, we're
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  Speaker 1: going to be spending a lot of time trying to
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  Speaker 1: figure out what's happening in Surrey on election night. Okay,
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  Speaker 1: let's just take a quick break. When we come back,
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  Speaker 1: we're going to talk some polling numbers. Well, Political Capital
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  Speaker 1: to the show. Another poll we should mention here, and
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  Speaker 1: I do wonder every time I mention one if we're
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  Speaker 1: cruising for a bruising on the polling front, perhaps back
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  Speaker 1: to the old 2013 election when all the polls were
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  Speaker 1: somewhat wrong and didn't quite anticipate the outcome of the election.
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  Speaker 1: And we all had a moment of pause on the
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  Speaker 1: pseudoscientific art of polling. But nonetheless, history is destined to
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  Speaker 1: repeat itself. And here we are in 2026 talking about
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  Speaker 1: every poll that comes out. This one by Innovative Research
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  Speaker 1: with a five-point lead for the BC Conservatives, 43% to 38%,
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  Speaker 1: which is a switcheroo position from the start of the
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  Speaker 1: campaign when Innovative had the NDP with a two-point lead
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  Speaker 1: near the end of September, and a marginal lead for
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  Speaker 1: the Conservatives in every region of the province in this poll,
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  Speaker 1: which doesn't quite match up with other polls, but this
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  Speaker 1: was 1,000 people after the TV leaders' debates yesterday. the
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  Speaker 1: 15th to the 19th. Jillian, I don't know if anything
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  Speaker 1: jumped out at you from this or how we fit
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  Speaker 1: these trend lines into the other trend lines and, and, uh,
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  Speaker 1: what you're thinking about these numbers in our final few
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  Speaker 1: days here.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I think what stands out to me
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  Speaker 2: is that they're all like pretty tight. Um, you see
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  Speaker 2: some variation in, in the polls, but for the most part,
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  Speaker 2: I think that like, they're all telling us that they're
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  Speaker 2: really close. And I think that, um, because of the
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  Speaker 2: way that the break, the votes break down in individual writings,
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  Speaker 2: it's really hard to sort of like accurately predict an
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  Speaker 2: outcome from that. I wasn't around in 2013 and I'm
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  Speaker 2: not sure if they were just off or, if, if
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  Speaker 2: it was sort of like a.
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  Speaker 1: Like an issue of super majority.
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  Speaker 2: I know, I know, I know that he was supposed
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  Speaker 2: to be able to kick a dog and still get elected.
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  Speaker 1: I don't know about the polling.
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  Speaker 2: Um, so I think we're going to be watching and
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  Speaker 2: it's impossible. Anyone who says that they know what's going
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  Speaker 2: to happen, um, doesn't, um, I think that there could
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  Speaker 2: still be like, well, so many signs are showing, telling
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  Speaker 2: us that the, it seems like the conservatives are going
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  Speaker 2: to run away with it or squeak away with it. Um,
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  Speaker 2: There are so many interesting things that can happen where, like,
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  Speaker 2: people feel really angry at EB, but when they get
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  Speaker 2: into the ballot box, they still could, you know, make
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  Speaker 2: a different decision, still think the Conservatives are risky. I
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  Speaker 2: hear a lot of people still talking about that. There's
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  Speaker 2: been a lot of noise, a lot of negative campaigning
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  Speaker 2: in this last week, so I really think it's so
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  Speaker 2: hard to extrapolate from these polls the way that it's
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  Speaker 2: going to go. The most... indicative number however from this
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  Speaker 2: poll because it's such a big one is 65% of
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  Speaker 2: people saying that it's time for a change in government
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  Speaker 2: which is an 8% increase from about a month ago
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  Speaker 2: when the election was called that's really significant and hard
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  Speaker 2: to overcome but again like people still might just decide
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  Speaker 2: like make a lesser of two evils choice but it
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  Speaker 2: would be very shocking to see the NDP have a
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  Speaker 2: bigger majority like they were aiming for with a number.
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  Speaker 1: Like that yeah and the best premier numbers in here
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  Speaker 1: indicating dirksen is rising quite a bit uh at least
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  Speaker 1: since you know.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah flipped it for the first time i think over
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  Speaker 2: eb right 36 to 34.
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  Speaker 1: Got it over at the top there and so that's
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  Speaker 1: an indication at least that maybe the conservatives are successful
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  Speaker 1: in defining dirksen or at least pushing back some of
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  Speaker 1: the ndp's attempts to define him as this kind of
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  Speaker 1: weak leader of a band of crazy yahoos who can't
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  Speaker 1: be trusted and instead he's kind of surviving that so
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  Speaker 1: but you're right like these numbers indicate what people respond
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  Speaker 1: to when they're contacted for an online survey or a
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  Speaker 1: phone poll or they're on a sample panel of some
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  Speaker 1: type but they don't account for the moment of truth
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  Speaker 1: in the ballot box with the stubby pencil where you're
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  Speaker 1: right sometimes people just seize up and default back to
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  Speaker 1: what feels more comfortable or more safe or the best option.
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  Speaker 1: And that's where the change momentum can sometimes evaporate. And
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  Speaker 1: we won't know that until election night as we're sitting
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  Speaker 1: there watching it, trying to figure out what's going on.
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  Speaker 1: But the voters are never wrong, even if they change
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  Speaker 1: their mind at the last minute. And a lot of
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  Speaker 1: this is in the margin of error sometimes too. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: this is five points and there isn't a margin of error,
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  Speaker 1: but usually it's indicating that. So I don't know. Very
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  Speaker 1: interesting times. Anything else you're watching for in our final
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  Speaker 1: few days here? We've got a Political Capital Prime on
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  Speaker 1: Friday that's going to air on check on Saturday right
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  Speaker 1: before the election as well, but it'll be online Friday.
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  Speaker 1: But anything between now and Friday that you're keeping an
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  Speaker 1: eye on?
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  Speaker 2: I mean, it's kind of interesting to see where they're
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  Speaker 2: spending their time. That seems like it's been mostly in
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  Speaker 2: the lower mainland. I haven't seen Azibi been on the island.
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  Speaker 2: The Greens are back on the island trying to lock
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  Speaker 2: down Emily Lowen's riding. She was campaigning with Mayor-elect Pete
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  Speaker 2: Fry yesterday there. knocking doors in Sydney. And then she'll
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  Speaker 2: be in Victoria today. So I don't know, are the
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  Speaker 2: NDP around on the island tomorrow?
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  Speaker 1: I don't know, but Lauren Dirksen was on the island
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  Speaker 1: yesterday in Sooke, Victoria and Langford. I sat down with
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  Speaker 1: them for an interview that we had on check, offered
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  Speaker 1: that up to EB when he's in town. And the
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  Speaker 1: response back was, no, that's good. If you want to
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  Speaker 1: talk to him, you can come to Vancouver. So I
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  Speaker 1: don't think we'll be doing that anytime soon. So it's
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  Speaker 1: kind of like, No, no.
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  Speaker 2: He heard about your man cold.
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  Speaker 1: That's right. No, thank you. I'm not getting that man cold.
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  Speaker 1: Sneeze all over him at the start of the interview.
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  Speaker 1: And yeah, it was interesting though, that both EB and
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  Speaker 1: Dirksen had been in Kelowna in the last 24 hours
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  Speaker 1: at the start of the week. And they're obviously fighting
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  Speaker 1: out over kind of Kelowna center and the idea there that,
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  Speaker 1: you know, there could be something afoot in a place
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  Speaker 1: that the NDP could actually maybe even win. So that's
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  Speaker 1: an interesting one because that sort of newish riding in
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  Speaker 1: 2024 has Christina Lohan against, who's the incumbent for the conservatives,
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  Speaker 1: against the NDP's Loyal Wooldridge. And there's significant attention from
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  Speaker 1: both leaders on that with the NDP hoping. There's not
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  Speaker 1: a lot of ridings you can point to in the
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  Speaker 1: province right now. And I was thinking about this today
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  Speaker 1: where you could be like, okay, the NDP want to
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  Speaker 1: win that. Like maybe a handful in the lower mainland
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  Speaker 1: and maybe they think they could flip Courtney Comox back.
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  Speaker 1: but Kelowna center is an NDP want to win this
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  Speaker 1: badly riding. And I guess their path to a bigger
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  Speaker 1: majority is going to need to flip ridings like that.
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  Speaker 1: And that's why EB is up there, uh, so much and,
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  Speaker 1: you know, that kind of thing. And I think your
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  Speaker 1: neck of the woods, like, uh, Nelson Creston, which is
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  Speaker 1: now Kootenai central is one where the conservatives kind of
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  Speaker 1: want to flip it on their path to, uh, to
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  Speaker 1: a majority too.
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  Speaker 3: So yeah, they leapfrogged the greens there last time, which
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  Speaker 3: really surprised me. Um, And yeah, I think there'll be,
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  Speaker 3: I've been hearing from a lot of people up there
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  Speaker 3: that there's sort of like change in the air up there.
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  Speaker 1: And the Greens got like 10% of the vote last time.
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  Speaker 1: So if they're still back and pull away from the NDP,
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  Speaker 1: that 10%, that could be a consequential vote split in
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  Speaker 1: that riding as well. So lots of ones like that
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  Speaker 1: where we're going to be watching to see, but oh, these,
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  Speaker 1: these final few hours of the campaign, very interesting stuff. Jillian,
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  Speaker 1: thank you so much for getting up and being part
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  Speaker 1: of the show so early.
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  Speaker 3: No problem.
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  Speaker 2: See you Friday.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll see you Friday and we'll see all of
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  Speaker 1: you tomorrow on Political Capital Daily and throughout the week
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: as we head into the election, Political Capital Prime, the
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: double shot on Friday and maybe even a podcast Saturday
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: morning with Jeff Frayer. It's going to be a busy week.
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  Speaker 1: We'll see you then.