Latest / Trumponomics / Episode 10: Does Manufacturing Still Matter for America?

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Episode 10: Does Manufacturing Still Matter for America? · Trumponomics

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  Speaker 1: and may not be appropriate for all investors manufacturing. What
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  Speaker 1: does it look like these days? Dying or on the
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: cusp of a renaissance? That's what we'll try to take
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: a part this week. Does anyone else pronounce it renaissances?
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: That just see you? Dan? I think it's to do
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: with that convict ship. Hi, and welcome back to Bloomberg Benchmark,
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  Speaker 1: a podcast about the global economy. It is Thursday, November five.
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  Speaker 1: I'm Tory Stillwell and economics reporter with Bloomberg News in Washington,
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  Speaker 1: d C. And I'm joined by my colleagues and co
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  Speaker 1: host Dan Moss, our executive editor for International Economics Average,
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  Speaker 1: who is in New York today, and Akido, our editor
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  Speaker 1: for a Benchmark in San Francisco. Hello, Hi, Hey, guys.
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  Speaker 1: So Dan, I was scouring the internet one day when
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  Speaker 1: I see this great article about how the Australian accent
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: as a result of like you guys drinking too much
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  Speaker 1: when you first settled Australia, and that you guys speak
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  Speaker 1: with just two thirds capacity, with one third of your
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  Speaker 1: mouth muscles sedentary. There's a couple of versions of that.
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  Speaker 1: One is that this is the kind of English that
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  Speaker 1: convicts spoke in late eighteenth century. The other version is
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  Speaker 1: when the first male convict ship arrived a few days
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  Speaker 1: before the first female convict ship, they were all going crazy.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Then when the first female convict ship arrived to join
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  Speaker 1: the first male convict ship, there was this massive, massive
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  Speaker 1: night with rum and nothing was ever the same. Again,
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  Speaker 1: it's fair to say that some of the first European
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  Speaker 1: Australians were conceived that night. But that's an incredible story. Well,
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: moving on, I guess this is sort of related. Let's
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  Speaker 1: talk about babies. This was the first piece of news
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  Speaker 1: I saw when I woke up on Thursday morning last week,
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  Speaker 1: and I was so stunned I think I audibly gasped.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: China got rid of its one child policy last week,
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  Speaker 1: so now Chinese families are allowed to have up to
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  Speaker 1: two kids. And this is a big deal because, like
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  Speaker 1: we mentioned in Our and Our China episode a few
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  Speaker 1: weeks back, um our guests Kenneth Lieberthal mentioned the one
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  Speaker 1: child policy as part of the reason why their their
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  Speaker 1: population growth has been slowing, and why that that's fed
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  Speaker 1: into overall growth of their economy. Population growth is slowing,
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  Speaker 1: but what's happening with the part of the population that's
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  Speaker 1: in the workforce that has in certain age groups already
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  Speaker 1: begun to contract. And it's really consistent with one of
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  Speaker 1: the things ken told us that day, which is this
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  Speaker 1: image we've had for a long time of China as
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  Speaker 1: this giant, giant, giant pool of workers. It's really increasingly
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  Speaker 1: less true. In some ways, that policy became too successful
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  Speaker 1: for its own good, because as the population has slowed
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  Speaker 1: and the working age population has shrunk, wages in China
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  Speaker 1: actually have been increasing, and for many manufacturing jobs, it
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  Speaker 1: just doesn't make sense to be in China anymore. There
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  Speaker 1: are other places you can go. Yeah, and from my
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  Speaker 1: proach on our Economic Indicators team, the week has been
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  Speaker 1: dominated by manufacturing data, and that leads nicely into our
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  Speaker 1: topic for today's show sure does. On this show, we've
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  Speaker 1: taught in previous episodes about the stronger dollar, We've talked
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  Speaker 1: about China. We've even talked about robots are doing to
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  Speaker 1: your job. We've touched on all these topics that affect
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  Speaker 1: the manufacturing sector without talking and devoting a show too
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  Speaker 1: well manufacturing itself. What does it look like these days?
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  Speaker 1: Dying or on the cusp of a renaissance? That's what
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  Speaker 1: we'll try to take a part this week. Does anyone
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  Speaker 1: else pronounce it renaissanswers that just see you, Dan? I
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  Speaker 1: think it's to do with that convict ship. Well, hopefully
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  Speaker 1: by the end of this episode will have answered this
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  Speaker 1: question of whether manufacturing even matters for an economy like ours,
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  Speaker 1: for an an advanced post industrialized economy. I think some
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  Speaker 1: of our listeners will be listening to this and think, gosh,
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  Speaker 1: I'm a teacher or a firefighter, or a lawyer or
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  Speaker 1: an app developer and manufacturing just sounds so twentieth century.
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  Speaker 1: So will be digging into this question as well, and
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  Speaker 1: we will also have a very special guest to tell
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  Speaker 1: us a little bit more about it at the bottom
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  Speaker 1: of the show, so stay tuned there. But first, things. First,
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  Speaker 1: let's run through what the manufacturing data are saying currently.
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  Speaker 1: So this week we got a couple of big pieces
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  Speaker 1: of news, and I want everyone to put on their
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  Speaker 1: nerd caps for a second. Mine is always on when
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  Speaker 1: talking about economic indicators. But among the first day points
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  Speaker 1: that where we get on the economy every month is
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  Speaker 1: actually concentrated on manufacturing. It's called the Institute for Supply
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  Speaker 1: Management Manufacturing Survey, and that name is so boring, but
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  Speaker 1: the information that it has is very interesting. Basically, these
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  Speaker 1: are just comments from purchasing managers in manufacturing, and you're
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  Speaker 1: probably wondering what a purchasing manager is. Uh. Factories need
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  Speaker 1: a lot of supplies to make what they make, and
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  Speaker 1: purchasing managers are in charge of making sure they have
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  Speaker 1: those supplies. So if managers think there's gonna be a
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  Speaker 1: pickup in demand for whatever the factory makes, whatever widgets
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  Speaker 1: they produce, they're gonna be making sure that they have
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  Speaker 1: ordered more raw materials that they need to make them.
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  Speaker 1: If they think there's gonna be a slowdown, they're gonna
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  Speaker 1: they're gonna trail off their orders for those raw materials.
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  Speaker 1: So these people are really at the helm of being
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  Speaker 1: able to monitor factory activity. So it's a leading indicator exactly,
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  Speaker 1: and the data goes back to so we've got a
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  Speaker 1: lot of history to work with, which is crucial for
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  Speaker 1: economic indicators. Every month, they mail up this questionnaire to
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  Speaker 1: hundreds of their members and about twenty industries. These are,
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  Speaker 1: you know, textiles, leather, plastics, producers, and they asked them
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  Speaker 1: all these questions and all these like wonky things that
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  Speaker 1: economists want to get super specific information on. But the
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  Speaker 1: broad overarching index, it compiles the most important parts of
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  Speaker 1: that survey. That's the number that we we really like
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  Speaker 1: to look at first. And that index was little changed
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  Speaker 1: at fifty point one for October, after fifty point two
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  Speaker 1: in September. So a number over fifty means that it's expanding,
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  Speaker 1: right exactly. It's good that it's over fifty, but it's
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  Speaker 1: basically kind of neutral. To give you guys a little
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  Speaker 1: bit more context, this main index was at fifty eight
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  Speaker 1: point one in August of last year, and that was
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  Speaker 1: right when the dollars started to go off on a tear.
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  Speaker 1: And there's been a few swings, but for the most part,
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  Speaker 1: it's just been a straight line down ever since then.
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  Speaker 1: I think the good news about last month's number was
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  Speaker 1: a lot of people thought that it was going to
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  Speaker 1: dip below that fifty threshold Hockey. They thought it was
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  Speaker 1: going to dip into contractionary territory. That would have been
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  Speaker 1: very worrisome, but it kind of held on, so that
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  Speaker 1: was actually a small positive thing. I guess if you
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  Speaker 1: look at the market p m I number, that increased
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  Speaker 1: the fifty four point one in October from fifty three
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  Speaker 1: point one in September. So I guess manufacturing isn't completely
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  Speaker 1: depressed right now, but it sounds like it's not doing
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  Speaker 1: too well either. And just to put this into some
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  Speaker 1: broader context tory, the Institute for Supply Lawn Management also
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  Speaker 1: publishes a non manufacturing index. Tell us what happened to
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  Speaker 1: that this month? Right, Well, so the services indexes nine
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  Speaker 1: points higher than that factory gauge, and that's the widest
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  Speaker 1: differential since two thousands, So that just really speaks to
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  Speaker 1: how much better the services side the economy is doing
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  Speaker 1: compared to the factory side. So we really live in
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  Speaker 1: a services world, at least for this month. Right, So
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  Speaker 1: let's talk about how manufacturing got this way. Uh, let's
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  Speaker 1: start short term, how do we get here. Well, Tori,
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  Speaker 1: you talked about the strong dollar right right exactly. We've
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  Speaker 1: we've seen the dollar appreciating and that makes our goods
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  Speaker 1: more expensive for people abroad who want to buy manufactured products.
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  Speaker 1: And one of the reasons why the dollar has been
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  Speaker 1: so strong recently is because other economies around the world
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  Speaker 1: aren't doing that well. And so you see this real
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  Speaker 1: slowdown and global demand, and that means us smaller market
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  Speaker 1: for American manufacturers. And then we've also seen the energy
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  Speaker 1: sector kind of throw a wrench in the manufacturing industry
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  Speaker 1: as well. When oil prices plunge, it means that oil
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  Speaker 1: companies don't really need to buy more heavy equipment. They
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  Speaker 1: don't need to invest in more equipment to be able
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  Speaker 1: to access that oil or energy or whatever they're mining
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  Speaker 1: for um, So it hurts the factories that produced that stuff.
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  Speaker 1: What about longer term, Dan, it's facing issues of technology,
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  Speaker 1: it's facing issues of cost. You know, we've got this
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  Speaker 1: global supply chain happening where a manufacturing company might happen
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  Speaker 1: to be headquartered in the United States, but the components
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  Speaker 1: for their product are manufactured in one country, they're assembled
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  Speaker 1: in a second, then shipped to a third for export. Now,
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  Speaker 1: that doesn't necessarily mean that American export as are dead
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  Speaker 1: or American manufacturers are dead. It may mean they're not
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  Speaker 1: doing the manufacturing and the exporting from the US. I'm wondering,
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  Speaker 1: why do we care about manufacturing so much in the
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  Speaker 1: first place if our future is in services. Part of
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  Speaker 1: it this iconic grip it's got on the American imagination,
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  Speaker 1: you know, Henry Ford and the tremendous industrialization we saw
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  Speaker 1: in waves the nineteenth century, then again the conversion of
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  Speaker 1: auto plants during World War Two to produce bombers and
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  Speaker 1: tanks and planes that became the so called arsenal of democracy.
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  Speaker 1: I think it's like farming in some ways. It has
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  Speaker 1: this grip on people's psyche, this view of how they
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  Speaker 1: feel about the country they're in, in the world they're in.
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  Speaker 1: Some of this services stuff can sometimes seem a little ephemeral,
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  Speaker 1: right right, Well, And to give you some context, manufacturing
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  Speaker 1: now accounts for about twelve GDP. It was almost so
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: a big drop there. But I think to help answer
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: your question, ay, we should bring on someone who really
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: knows a lot more about the manufacturing industry. But first
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  Speaker 1: may not be appropriate for all investors. Well, since none
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: of us on this show have actually held a manufacturing job,
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: we have a surprise guest on the line to share
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  Speaker 1: her firsthand experiences. Hi. Mom, Hi, I'm good, Thanks for
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: joining us. Oh, you're welcome. Glad that I could do
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: it me too. We wanted to talk to you because
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: we thought you would just have really great personal experience
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: with the manufacturing industry and we just wanted to learn
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: a little bit more about it from you. So to start,
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: how long have you worked in manufacturing. Well, I have
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: been in manufacturing basically all my life. And we're gonna
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  Speaker 1: say that's rough. Really, uh, forty three years I've been
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  Speaker 1: in manufacturing. I went into manufacturing right after I graduated
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  Speaker 1: from my school. And has that been in North Carolina
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  Speaker 1: the whole time? Debbie, You've had a number of jobs, right.
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  Speaker 1: Tory was telling us that you've worked at a bunch
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  Speaker 1: of different factories before you actually started working at your
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  Speaker 1: current company. Yes, I went into the manufacturing field. Was
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: in nineteen and seventy two. I went into furniture and
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: I worked in furniture for a few years, and then
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: I twitched Ubbord and went into the hushry textile area.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: I did that and I was probably in the hushry
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: textile area about fifteen years. Then I decided to venture
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: out and try something different and I went into working
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: with a company that did security systems. That was with
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: that company about thirteen fourteen years aftil I left there.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: I went on another adventure and I worked at a hospital,
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: and uh, I did two different things at that hospital.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: One area I worked in the cafeteria and then another
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: area is I worked within the hospital itself in another
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: area doing housekeeping and stuff like that. But then after
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: I left there, I went in back into the manufacturing
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  Speaker 1: fields and I went into automotives. I worked there for
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: about two years, and then now I am working in
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: heavy equipment hydraulic maintenance. So one of the things we've
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: talked about on this show is not just how manufacturing
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  Speaker 1: has changed, but how proportionately it accounts for a small
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  Speaker 1: share of the American workforce than it really does. Have
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: you noticed that playout in your life and in the
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: careers of your college. Oh? Yes, especially the area that
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: Toy was born and raised. Then it's a little small
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: rural area and picker in North Carolina. It is a
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  Speaker 1: very important part because that is the main uh sence
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  Speaker 1: of the majority of the people's income there, especially the
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  Speaker 1: people my age and maybe the next generation down. That
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  Speaker 1: was basically the thing they've done. They went, they went
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  Speaker 1: to school, they graduated from high school, they got married,
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: they got a job, they got married, they had children,
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  Speaker 1: and back in two thousand eight nine, whenever the job
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: market really drops, I had I've seen personally a lot
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: of people lose their homes, lose everything they had because
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: they lost their job. At a point when Tory was
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: still in high school. I lost my job and I
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: wasn't without a job for several months without a jobs. Thankfully,
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: we had a place to stay. But I've seen a
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: lot of people lose their homes, and it was basically
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: because of the furniture we in the area that we
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: live in, Hugh cre is a big furniture market area,
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: and a lot of the furniture companies had quit, had
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: closed their doors, moved to Mexico, China, wherever, and people
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: didn't have jobs. And there were a lot of those
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: people that worked there for all their lives. I mean
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: sometimes some people had worked our thirty five years, that's
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: the only job that they ever had. Thank goodness, were
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: past the depth of two thousand, two thousand and nine.
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  Speaker 1: But on the ground, how much of a substantial or
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: if any return to pre two thousand and eight has
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: there been? Have most of the people who you mentioned
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  Speaker 1: found other jobs, have jobs at those same places come back,
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: or have new employers moved in. Well that some new
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: companies have moved in. Not very many of the all
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: factories have moved back. There's a few that have came back,
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: but mostly everybody else has went to another field. Like
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: and olso the textile, the hosi business that really drops
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: during that time, and we really don't have a lot
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: of textiles and hosie around here anymore. But a lot
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: of places offered the people to go to school. And
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: we had a program during that with the Unemployment Commission
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: that the Employment Commission that we could go to school
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: if you if you chose to just lant a new trade.
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: And a lot of people did that. But and then
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: there's there's others that just feeling they didn't do theydn't
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: do anything, you know, so right now they're still out
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: there trying to find a job. I think, Mom would
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: be really interesting to hear sort of what a typical
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: day for you is like, because I'm not sure that
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: too many people know. You know, what it's like to
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: work in a factory. Um, what's it? What's it like
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: for you as a as a factory worker? In my position,
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: I'm a kind of a supervisor overseer over a production
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: area in the in the company that I work for,
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: and I just have to go in every day and
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: I've got to make sure that all of the I
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: have all these the products the supplies that I need
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: to make our our products. UH. In the meantime, while
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: I'm doing this, I'm also running different kind of machinery
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: that we have to do, and it's constant all the time,
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: something to do. It's fast paced, and you've got age.
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: You can't be fast with your job. You're not gonna
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: make it there along because they want people that that
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: have space and are interested in London and want to learn.
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: You know, Debbie, it was so interesting listening to you
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: talk about all the different jobs that you've held that
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: you moved from furniture to textiles, to autos to now
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: heavy equipment, because that's really a story of the shifts
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: in American manufacturing over the last few decades. You can
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: really see this move from UH less profitable, lower value
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: added UM industries to UH something like heavy equipment that's
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: a lot more profitable and involves higher technology. I guess,
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: but I was wondering, did you ever have to go
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: back to school to transition between these jobs or get
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: additional training? Personally myself, I have it, but I have
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: known people that how went back to school so they
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: can learn how to runch machines and stuff. And when
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: they've returned from school, have they kept their employment at
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: the same place. Yes, and they usually get a bit
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: of a real nice pay rate when they actively complete
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: their schooling, because that's why they send them to schools
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: to learn how to operate a very high tech machine.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: Is the common person coming off the street can't run it,
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: and you have to go to school to to know
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: how to maintain, how to operate it, and everything about it. Dad,
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: we've been wrestling with two competing narratives. One says that
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: manufacturing in the US is back, there's this manufacturing renaissance.
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: Then on the other side of the fence, you've got
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: a school of thought that says manufacturing is really history
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: in the US. So from your perspective, which is true, Well,
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: from perspective, I believe it could be in the middle.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: Right now, I think manufacturing is still a part of
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: our lives and in and it will be for a while.
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: But I think further on down the road to say,
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: like by the time maybe tories forty or so, maybe
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: when is that exactly, Let's say, five, ten or twenty years.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: I'm not fifteen or twenty years down the road. Uh,
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: I could I could see it, Bason now, Well, Mom, yes,
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: thank you so much as anyone else have any other questions, Debbie,
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: I have one more question, how the skill of once attend?
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: How proud are you of Tori for being an internationally
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: famous podcaster? That would be a one chen very very
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: proud of Toy. I am so glad that she decided
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: to go to college and do what she does and
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: not be living there because her generations, the ones that
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: live there, they're falling in the same the same mode
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: that their parents and their grandparents are there out here
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: trying to find a factory job, you know. And that's
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: that's one thing I'm proud of about Tory. But when
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: Tori was a little girl, I came home one day
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: and she said, when I grow up, I'm not working
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: for Peanuts. And I said what, And she said, I'm
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: not working for Peanuts when I grow up. And she
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: followed her green and her boat. And I am very
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: proud of her. We're coming up to annual review time.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: I'll keep I'll keep the I'll keep the Peanuts thing
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: in mind for Tories. I mean, just that laugh alone
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: is worth being proud of it. I don't believe there's
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: another Laft in the world like that. Laft. Well, thank
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: you so much for joining us today. It's been a
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: real privilege to have you on the show. Has been
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: a privilege to talk to you all too. All right, Mom,
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: love you, thank you, love you too, and talk to
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: you later. Okay. Bye. So I guess to answer your
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: question Aki, that you posed at the beginning of the show,
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: I would say, yes, manufacturing does still matter in America.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: Thanks again for listening to Bloomberg Benchmark. We will be
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: back next week and until then you can find us
• 22:30
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• 22:32
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• 22:40
  Speaker 1: show so more listeners can find us. And a very
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: special thank you to Debbie. Let us see what you
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: thought of the show. You can talk to us and
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: follow us on Twitter at Aki epos seven, Acrey still
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: Well and Daniel mass d C. Thanks again. We'll see
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: you next week, hopefully we can talk this one. PS
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: two pass by pas best pass stor