Latest / The President's Daily Brief / PDB Afternoon Bulletin | October 9th, 2026: Trump Rules Out Iran Strikes Before Midterms & China's Maritime Militia Raises Blockade Fears

Transcript

PDB Afternoon Bulletin | October 9th, 2026: Trump Rules Out Iran Strikes Before Midterms & China's Maritime Militia Raises Blockade Fears · The President's Daily Brief

• 0:12
  It's Friday,
• 0:12
  the 9th of October.
• 0:14
  Welcome to the PDB afternoon bulletin.
• 0:16
  I'm Mike Baker,
• 0:17
  your eyes and ears on the world stage.
• 0:20
  Alright,
• 0:20
  let's get briefed.
• 0:22
  First up,
• 0:22
  President Trump says the US will not launch new strikes against Iran
• 0:28
  before the November midterm elections,
• 0:30
  even as the Pentagon prepares for another major round of combat.
• 0:34
  But with Washington tightening its economic stranglehold and
• 0:37
  the Iranian regime escalating attacks on Gulf shipping,
• 0:41
  Well,
• 0:42
  questions are mounting over just how long this,
• 0:44
  uh,
• 0:44
  unusual standoff can last.
• 0:47
  Later in the show,
• 0:48
  China expands its maritime presence into sensitive
• 0:51
  territorial waters off Taiwan's eastern coast.
• 0:55
  The latest incursion is raising additional concerns that Beijing
• 0:58
  may be preparing for a future blockade of the island.
• 1:02
  But first,
• 1:02
  today's afternoon spotlight.
• 1:05
  Despite mounting signs that the US was preparing for
• 1:07
  another potentially imminent round of major strikes against Iran.
• 1:11
  President Trump now says American forces
• 1:13
  will not attack the Islamic Republic before
• 1:16
  November's midterm elections.
• 1:19
  In a lengthy statement Thursday on Truth Social,
• 1:22
  Trump said Washington was having what he called quote productive discussions,
• 1:25
  oh,
• 1:26
  here we go,
• 1:27
  with the Iranian regime,
• 1:28
  while insisting that Iran remains in serious economic and military trouble.
• 1:33
  Now,
• 1:33
  I'll be honest with you,
• 1:34
  I have lost track of how many times over the past 7 months of this conflict.
• 1:38
  We have heard the White House talk about how the
• 1:40
  US is engaged in productive negotiations with the regime.
• 1:44
  In his Truth Social postings,
• 1:46
  the president declared,
• 1:47
  quote,
• 1:47
  We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections.
• 1:51
  Those are scheduled for the 3rd of November.
• 1:53
  He also highlighted what he called Iran's very bad condition,
• 1:57
  both economically and militarily,
• 1:59
  along with the success of the American
• 2:01
  blockade and squeezing Tehran's remaining economic lifelines.
• 2:05
  But he added another emphatic warning,
• 2:07
  stating in all capital letters,
• 2:09
  so you know it's emphatic,
• 2:11
  quote,
• 2:12
  Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.
• 2:15
  Now,
• 2:16
  yesterday on the PDB we noted that the Pentagon had instructed US Central Command
• 2:20
  CENTCOM to complete preparations for the possible
• 2:23
  resumption of major combat operations against Iran,
• 2:27
  potentially involving extensive strikes on nuclear facilities,
• 2:30
  energy infrastructure,
• 2:32
  and other targets.
• 2:33
  Those preparations followed weeks of American
• 2:36
  military deployments to the region,
• 2:38
  including additional warships and thousands of troops.
• 2:41
  And according to Axios,
• 2:42
  senior American officials briefed Israel's military chief earlier this week
• 2:46
  about preparations for possible strikes within the next 3 weeks.
• 2:51
  Now,
• 2:51
  Trump's announcement appears to push that timetable back,
• 2:54
  well,
• 2:55
  at least publicly.
• 2:56
  But there's no indication that the Pentagon has
• 2:59
  been ordered to abandon its contingency plans,
• 3:01
  and the president has previously kept his military intentions closely guarded,
• 3:05
  despite his public statements.
• 3:08
  Meanwhile,
• 3:08
  President Trump made clear that one major
• 3:10
  part of Washington's pressure campaign will continue.
• 3:13
  The president said the American naval blockade of Iran would remain in full force,
• 3:17
  and on Thursday,
• 3:19
  the US Treasury Department announced another sweeping
• 3:22
  round of sanctions targeting Tehran's oil trade.
• 3:25
  The measures target individuals,
• 3:27
  shipping networks,
• 3:28
  and 17 vessels
• 3:29
  accused of transporting Iranian crude,
• 3:32
  petroleum products,
• 3:33
  and petrochemicals
• 3:35
  through the country's so-called shadow fleet.
• 3:37
  The sanctions are part of an initiative that
• 3:39
  the US Treasury Department calls Operation Economic Outcast,
• 3:43
  aimed at cutting off revenue that
• 3:45
  Iran uses to sustain its military operations,
• 3:48
  missile programs,
• 3:49
  and the Revolutionary Guard Corps.
• 3:52
  One Treasury official described the action as the most significant blow yet
• 3:56
  against Iran's remaining illicit maritime infrastructure,
• 3:59
  claiming Washington was effectively neutralizing much of the shadow fleet.
• 4:03
  Well,
• 4:03
  it does beg the question,
• 4:05
  if that was so significant,
• 4:06
  why weren't these significant sanctions put in place before?
• 4:09
  Hmm.
• 4:10
  Now,
• 4:11
  as we discussed on yesterday's show,
• 4:13
  there is growing evidence that the broader
• 4:15
  economic pressure is taking an increasing toll.
• 4:18
  American forces have redirected more than 270 vessels since April,
• 4:22
  while Chinese refiners are increasingly turning to other suppliers
• 4:26
  as Iranian crude becomes harder to obtain.
• 4:29
  Iranian oil shipments to China fell sharply in September,
• 4:32
  and Tehran has been drawing down the crude
• 4:35
  that it previously stored outside the blockade zone.
• 4:39
  US Treasury Department now estimates that roughly 20 million barrels
• 4:42
  of Iranian oil remain aboard vessels beyond the blockade,
• 4:46
  while officials say Iran has stopped loading and unloading crude tankers.
• 4:51
  Still,
• 4:51
  the latest sanctions may not deliver the immediate
• 4:55
  economic blow that Washington is advertising.
• 4:58
  One analyst told Reuters that because Iran has already
• 5:01
  delivered much of its oil that's stored at sea,
• 5:03
  the new restrictions could have limited near-term impact.
• 5:07
  And there's another complication for the administration.
• 5:09
  Iran is continuing to threaten commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz,
• 5:13
  as we've been tracking here on the PDB.
• 5:16
  Reuters recently reported that Gulf oil exports had recovered to pre-war
• 5:20
  levels and even exceeded them on 14 days in September,
• 5:24
  despite the ongoing conflict.
• 5:27
  President Trump went further Thursday,
• 5:28
  claiming that 22 million barrels had passed through the Strait the previous night,
• 5:33
  with none originating from or destined for Iran.
• 5:36
  Though I should note that specific figure has not been independently confirmed,
• 5:42
  but while the broader recovery in regional
• 5:44
  oil exports has been undeniably substantial,
• 5:47
  it has come alongside a dangerous new increase in attacks on tankers.
• 5:52
  According to the Washington Post,
• 5:53
  at least 9 vessels were struck in the Strait of
• 5:55
  Hormuz during the week ending the 4th of October.
• 5:59
  That's the highest level of attacks in months.
• 6:01
  And shipping data reviewed by the Post
• 6:03
  shows that after nearly 16 million barrels of
• 6:06
  crude passed through the Strait on Friday,
• 6:08
  October 2nd,
• 6:10
  that volume had fallen by roughly half by Monday,
• 6:12
  October 5th.
• 6:14
  So while the blockade appears to be severely restricting Iran's own oil trade,
• 6:18
  Tehran still is demonstrating the ability to disrupt shipments
• 6:23
  from other Gulf producers,
• 6:24
  threatening global energy supplies and
• 6:26
  keeping pressure on oil prices.
• 6:29
  And despite the talk of quote productive discussions with the Iranian regime,
• 6:34
  the diplomatic picture remains murky at best.
• 6:37
  Axios reports that there's little evidence
• 6:39
  that major differences between Washington and Tehran have narrowed,
• 6:43
  particularly over Iran's nuclear program.
• 6:46
  Iranian officials meanwhile say Tehran
• 6:48
  is reviewing Washington's latest proposal
• 6:51
  and could respond within days.
• 6:54
  So while the White House may have taken another
• 6:56
  round of American strikes off the immediate calendar,
• 6:59
  there's not much time left on the clock between now and the midterm elections.
• 7:04
  And the track record of the supposed productive negotiations
• 7:08
  over the course of this conflict,
• 7:10
  well,
• 7:10
  that track record doesn't give much confidence that an
• 7:13
  agreement can be reached in the remaining 3.5 weeks.
• 7:17
  All right.
• 7:17
  Coming up next,
• 7:18
  a suspected Chinese maritime militia vessel has been spotted
• 7:22
  off Taiwan's eastern coast for the first time,
• 7:25
  raising new concerns about Beijing's preparations
• 7:28
  for a potential military confrontation.
• 7:30
  I'll be right back.
• 7:32
  Hey,
• 7:32
  Mike Baker here.
• 7:33
  Well,
• 7:33
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• 7:35
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• 7:36
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• 7:37
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• 7:38
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• 7:39
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• 7:41
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• 7:43
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• 7:45
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  Welcome back to the PDB afternoon bulletin.
• 10:11
  A suspected Chinese maritime militia vessel has been spotted
• 10:15
  off Taiwan's eastern coast for the first time,
• 10:17
  raising new concerns that Beijing may be expanding its preparations
• 10:22
  for a potential blockade of the island.
• 10:24
  According to a surveillance report exclusively reviewed by Reuters this week,
• 10:29
  a Chinese fishing boat identified as part of Beijing's maritime militia
• 10:33
  was detected operating alongside a Chinese coast Guard
• 10:35
  cutter and a research vessel in mid-August,
• 10:38
  approximately 30 nautical miles off Taiwan's Pacific coast.
• 10:43
  Now,
• 10:43
  China's maritime militia isn't your typical fishing fleet.
• 10:46
  It consists of ostensibly civilian vessels
• 10:49
  whose crews receive training and support
• 10:52
  to advance Beijing's maritime claims,
• 10:54
  often operating alongside the Chinese Coast Guard.
• 10:58
  The arrangement allows China to exert pressure in disputed
• 11:00
  waters while maintaining the appearance of ordinary civilian activity.
• 11:06
  The discovery was made by Apex Aviation.
• 11:08
  It's a private Taiwanese company that uses radar-equipped aircraft
• 11:12
  to monitor maritime activity.
• 11:15
  Taiwanese officials confirmed the presence of
• 11:17
  all three vessels and said the fishing
• 11:18
  boat was operating in coordination with
• 11:20
  the Chinese Coast Guard harassment drills.
• 11:23
  However,
• 11:24
  Apex acknowledged that its surveillance could
• 11:26
  not independently determine the vessel's mission
• 11:29
  or whether their movements were coordinated.
• 11:32
  The location is particularly significant.
• 11:35
  Taiwan considers the waters off its eastern
• 11:37
  coast critical for receiving supplies from its allies
• 11:40
  in the event of a Chinese blockade or military conflict.
• 11:44
  And Beijing has been steadily increasing its presence in those waters,
• 11:49
  conducting regular coast guard patrols since June of this year.
• 11:52
  Taiwanese officials believe China may be rehearsing a potential blockade
• 11:56
  by combining military,
• 11:58
  paramilitary,
• 11:59
  and civilian vessels
• 12:00
  to gradually expand its control over the surrounding seas.
• 12:04
  The revelation also comes as
• 12:06
  former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen
• 12:09
  warned during a speech at Stanford University on Wednesday
• 12:12
  about Beijing's growing use of so-called gray zone tactics.
• 12:16
  Tsai described China's strategy as a campaign of sustained pressure
• 12:21
  designed to test Taiwan's responses
• 12:22
  and gradually reshape the security environment
• 12:26
  without provoking an outright military confrontation.
• 12:29
  And that's what makes this latest sighting noteworthy.
• 12:32
  China's maritime militia
• 12:33
  gives Beijing another way to challenge
• 12:35
  Taiwan's control over its surrounding waters
• 12:38
  without relying exclusively on conventional
• 12:41
  warships or openly initiating hostilities.
• 12:44
  For Taiwan,
• 12:45
  well,
• 12:46
  the concern is that these operations could eventually help Beijing
• 12:50
  establish the presence and capabilities needed
• 12:53
  to disrupt critical supply routes during a future conflict.
• 12:57
  And that,
• 12:58
  my friends,
• 12:58
  is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Friday,
• 13:00
  the 9th of October.
• 13:02
  If you have any questions or comments,
• 13:03
  and I hope you do,
• 13:04
  just reach out to me at PDB@thfirsttv.com.
• 13:08
  Finally,
• 13:08
  it is,
• 13:09
  as said,
• 13:10
  indeed Friday,
• 13:11
  and that means a brand new episode of our PDB situation report weekend show
• 13:16
  is sitting on the launch pad,
• 13:17
  ready to go.
• 13:18
  You can catch it this evening at 1:0:00 p.m. on the first TV
• 13:21
  and as always,
• 13:21
  you can find it on our YouTube channel.
• 13:23
  Just head on over to YouTube and search up at President's Daily Brief.
• 13:27
  The PDB Situation Report can also be found,
• 13:29
  of course,
• 13:30
  wherever you get your podcast stuff.
• 13:32
  Tune in and find out why 9 out of 10 folks say The Situation Report
• 13:36
  is their favorite weekend news show.
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  I,
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  I just made that statistic up.
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  And to listen to the show ad-free,
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  just become a premium member of the
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  President's Daily Brief by visiting PDBpremium.com.
• 13:48
  I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back over the weekend with the PDB situation report.
• 13:52
  Until then,
• 13:54
  stay informed,
• 13:55
  stay safe,
• 13:56
  stay cool.