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Inside The Data: What Metrics Favor The Eagles Vs. The Bears In Week 3? · Inside the Birds: A Philadelphia Eagles Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Hello, welcome back to Inside the Data. On Inside the Birds,
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: I'm Jeff Mosher, of course, with Sam Finkel, and this
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: is our game preview from a data standpoint. We're previewing
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: the Week 3 matchup. Monday night, Eagles head to Chicago
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: to play the Bears. What an ugly game they had
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: against the Bears in South Philly last year. I think
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: that was on Thanksgiving. Was that like Black Friday game,
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: was it not?
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it was.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the day after. Yeah, and they got steamrolled by
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: the Bears' run game. So we will take a look
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: at this and preview it from an analytics and a
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: data perspective. vantage point. And we will continue to introduce
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: the DVOA stat that we did in our last show
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: that recapped Eagles versus Titans. So just real quickly for
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: anybody who may have missed that show, Sam, give a recap,
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: a layman's turn recap of what DVOA is compared to
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: other things we use like EPA and why it's important.
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah. So, you know, Very, very simple way to understand
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: it is DVOA measures how efficiently a team performs compared
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: to league average, factoring in the actual situation of the play,
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: meaning the down, the distance, the field position, the time
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: and the score. It's a very contextualized data point, whereas
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: EPA is a little bit more contained. And it's more
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: about how much did each play change the expected points
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: that a team's going to score on that drive.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and what we discovered in our last show is
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: that while the Eagles had a good rush, a decent
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: rush offense EPA because of things like Jalen Hurts' scrambles
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: and a 42-yard run by Saquon Barkley, which obviously increases
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: your chance of scoring when you have a 40-yard play,
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: the DVOA, which takes into account situation, circumstance, other context,
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: showed that A little bit more of an accurate picture
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: for the run game, which has not performed well because
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: it was not a good DVOA.
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, you could have a pretty high EPA
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: if you have a couple splash plays. But if you
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: don't consistently perform that way, the DVOA will show that
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: it's not sustainable. Right.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: And we'll continue to use both and see how they
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: agree or disagree throughout the course of the season. Absolutely.
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: Absolutely.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: All right, great. Let's go right to the preview against
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: the Bears here. I love that we start off with
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: the Monte Carlo. It's a great way to start off
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: just the predictive model. What is the Monte Carlo simulation
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: model that you've been giving us for a couple weeks now, say,
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: about this game? Yeah.
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: I mean, so when we first ran it back in
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: week one, the Eagles won 488 of the 1,000 simulations.
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: Then following the victory against the Commanders, that model projected
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: 491 out of a thousand. Um, and then this week after,
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: you know, it's not just that the fact that the
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: Eagles beat the Titans, but it's also the fact that
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: Caleb Williams is likely not going to play and potentially
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: even the backup is not going to play because he
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: is in concussion protocol. So it could be case Keenum
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: that is suiting up. And there actually was a distinction whether, uh,
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: Tyson Bajan was going to play or not. Um, I
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: believe it was 652 out of 1,000 if Tyson was playing. Okay.
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: And then if Case Keenum was playing, which is under
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: the assumption. I currently use the Eagles won 671 out
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: of 1,000 simulations.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: So the Monte Carlo simulation says that the Bears have
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: a better chance to win with Case Keenum than Tyson Bajan.
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: No, no.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: Oh, okay. I'm sorry.
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah. If Bajan is playing, it's 652, 65.2%. If
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: Case Keenum is playing, it's 67.1, 671. Oh, that's right.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: That's right, because that's not the Bears. That's the Eagles percentage.
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Okay, good point. I just think it's really fascinating that
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: even after week one, that the Eagles had an improved
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: chance of winning, slightly, from 48.8 to 49.1, and now
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: it jumps almost 20 percentage points. I guess that means
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: the quarterback's important.
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: I think the quarterback is important. That is a big takeaway.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Kind of an ugly score chart here for the bear.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: I mean that game. I'll listen. I'm going to talk
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: about this more on the NFL weekend preview show that
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: I do. I'm not sure that there's a better combination
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: right now in the NFL of play callers. Then Kevin
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: O'Connell and Brian Flores. And I know that the Vikings
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: offense did not score what scored nine points.
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: However, That was with Carson Wentz now having a team
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: have a week to prepare for him. You know, not
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: having Kyler Murray. I mean, they scored three touchdowns, I think.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: They got three from Wentz off the bench in week one.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: But those two guys are always in their bag. And listen,
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: they're 2-0. Last year they were 9-8 with some of
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: the most horrific quarterback play you've ever seen.
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's impressive. They're definitely a sneaky team to watch
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: as the season goes, for sure. Yeah.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: By the way, 2-0 in their own division. I mean,
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: great to start off with wins over the Packers and
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: Bears when you're the Minnesota Vikings.
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: Absolutely. Especially, it would have been interesting to see if
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: Caleb Williams was able to finish that game what the
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: final score would have been.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: For sure.
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: Sure.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: My favorite stat is that the Bears are averaging 31
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: points per game after two weeks, even though they scored
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: three last week. Well, yeah.
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, according to NFL research, I mean, It was
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: a 56-point drop-off, which is the second largest in NFL history. Wow.
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: The first was the 1973 Falcons, who won the game,
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: I believe, 62-7, and then they got shut out the
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: next week.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Oh, my God. That's incredible. There is an adage that
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: if you have an outburst like this, where you score
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: 45 to 55 points, that you're just going to blow
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: it the next week. I bet you it's pretty. I
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: don't want to say it's as common as this drop
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: off right from 59 to three or the one from
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: the Falcons 62 to zero, but it's pretty common.
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: Didn't the dolphins win a game like 70 to three
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: and then they got blown out by the, the Broncos
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: the next week or something like that.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: I believe so. Yes. Yeah.
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: So it's, yes, I remember that. That's right. That was crazy.
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: It's so funny.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: It's almost good for betting. Like if you see a
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: team do that, you know, to take the under the
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: next week, whatever.
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: You used up all your, you know, juice. Yeah.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: All right, so you have a little, I'm not trying
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: to diminish it, it's not little, but you have a
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: chart here that sort of compares the Eagles and Bears
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: at a glance just in certain categories.
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, this is directly from NFL Pro. They
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: have a pretty good organization. Just the points per game,
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: the Eagles being 13th at 24, and again, the Bears
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: being at 31, even though scoring three the week before.
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: And that's why sample size matters so much. It's really
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: hard in week two to have an accurate table, but
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: I mean, they're fourth in the league. The point differential
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: is interesting. The Eagles are plus six, 15, and the Bears,
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: despite losing last week, are plus 16.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah. The only thing I think is probably the one
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: thing where you could say it's not that too early
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: is that the Bears have 20 penalties throughout two weeks.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Unless all 20 were in one game, which I doubt.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: I think that that's not a great thing if you're
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Ben Johnson and Dennis Allen. I mean, those are two
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: veteran coaches and, and at least one of those guys
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: likes to beat his chest a lot. So you would,
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: you would think that that's not something that sits well
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: with them.
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, also the turnover differential, you know, the
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: Eagles being at minus two and the bears being at
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: even zero you know, that's, that's interesting. I mean, again,
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: Eagles having to go on the road again, like you said,
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: there's been a lot of teams on the road, turning
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: the ball over and not winning despite the Eagles, you know,
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: having two turnovers and winning. Right. Being the only team,
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: I remember we talked about last episode, which is interesting.
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: I do think the average margin of victory may also
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: be somewhat important. I mean, the Eagles are able to
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: eke out wins against close games. I mean, if you
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: record close games, they're 2-0 out of the 2-0. Sure.
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: And the Bears lost their close game with the Vikings. So,
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, again, too early to tell, but I think
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: those stats are somewhat interesting and worth discussing. Yes.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: And, of course, you're right about the sample size because
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: the Eagles– had a very good record in close games
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: last year as well. That's kind of been their MO.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: The Bears have been a little bit volatile even last
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: year in winning the NFC North. They had a good
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: record in close games, but they were volatile in that
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: I think they had eight fourth-quarter comeback wins last year
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: that did not seem very sustainable.
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: And they would agree. They wanted to get better so
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: that they didn't have to win all those games in
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: the fourth quarter. They thought they would, and losing Caleb
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: Williams potentially would hurt that.
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: Absolutely.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: I like this stuff here.
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, this is just like they call it
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: the advantages section on NFL Pro. It just compared some
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: of the, you know, interesting data points that are worth discussing.
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: You know, rushing out a shotgun, the Bears are the
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: number one offense. That's not going to change that much.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: No, not at all.
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: When you factor in a new quarterback, there is an
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: effect for sure. But, I mean, the fact that you
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: can run the ball efficiently kind of is somewhat independent
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: of the quarterback.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: By the way, that's not volume. That's efficiency, right? This
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: doesn't mean that Bears have the most runs at a shotgun.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: It just means they're the best, I assume?
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: Correct.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: And the Eagles are 19th on run defense, just so
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: you know. Gotcha. Because the first chart is the Bears'
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: offense versus the Eagles' defense. Right. And then you look
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: at the pressure rate. The Bears are 28th in what
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: they allow, and the Eagles are fourth in what they generate. So,
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's going to be a really interesting matchup.
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: For sure. And then passing versus blitz. Again, this is
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: a quarterback-dependent statistic, so I wouldn't really spend too much
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: time worrying about it. But the overall rushing efficiency, them
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: being number four– and the Eagles' run defense being 23.
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: It's going to be an interesting area.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: This is something we should revisit in the postgame because
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: Vic does have a tendency when he smells the blood
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: of a backup quarterback to up his blitz percentage. So
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: if we're talking on Tuesday for Wednesday's show, if we're
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: talking about Vic's blitz percentage being up in the 30s
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: or something like that, we'll know why.
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's a really good point and something
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: interesting that we'll be discussing for sure. And then last
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: thing for the Bears offense, rushing outside the tackles. They're
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: 13th and the Eagles are 29th and defending it. So
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: that'll be super interesting to see, you know, where they're
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: going to be running from.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: Absolutely. And on the other side, you get the Eagles
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: offense versus the Bears defense.
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, Eagles offense, number three in deep passing,
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: not terribly shocking considering who they had a quarterback. and
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: the Bears defense are 20th so that that'll be interesting
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: if if Hurts can have some time and get the
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: ball down the field deep I think that'll be a
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: big area of success potentially or an area that the
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: Eagles would like to exploit and then if you look
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: at the passing versus the blitz the Eagles are ninth
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: in handling it and the Bears are 28th in providing
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: it but the pressure rate being 18th for the Eagles
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: and handling it and 29th for the Bears so if
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: the Eagles can maintain some semblance of an offensive line, again,
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: we talked about it. The bad was really bad, but
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: there was some solid snaps from everyone in the offensive line.
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: For sure. That'll be interesting. Again, long passing is very
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: similar to deep passing. I don't know what their distinction
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: between deep passing and long passing is.
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: I was going to ask that, so I'm glad you
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: clarified that you're not sure either.
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: To me, I would assume those are similar. Maybe deep
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: passing is air yards and long passing is the result
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: of the play.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: That's a good point. Yards, definitely.
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: Because usually when you say deep passing, you're talking about
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: the air yards. So my guess is that's what that is.
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: And long passing is the yards after catch included, which
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: would make sense because the Eagles they're receiving core, at
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: least like thinking of Devonta Smith, you're not thinking of
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: too many yards after catch, but you're thinking he's going
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: to catch everything that comes his way.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: Right. Right. That's true.
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: That's the only reason I'm like deducing that that's what
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: that means. Sure. Sure. Um, and then passing versus pressure, uh,
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: which again, it's similar to passing versus blitz, but it's
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: just when the blitz actually, or the foreman, if they
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: actually generate pressure versus, it is a distinction. That one,
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: I think we can all understand a little bit more
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: than long versus deep passing.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: Sure.
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: But the Eagles are 22nd in that, in versus pressure
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: and the Bears are 26th. So the Bears haven't been
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: able to get too much pressure or they haven't blitzed
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: very much and the Eagles handle those Okay. I mean,
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: pretty well against the blitz, not as great against Trevor. Right. Right.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: Okay. Good stuff. We'll get into the advanced stats here
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: for Eagles offense versus Bears defense. I always just like
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: to say, you know, without going through every single category,
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: like what stands out to you?
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, what stands out is, again, it's these
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: pressure statistics, right? I mean, the Eagles are allowing a
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: lot of pressure and the Bears aren't generating. as much pressure, uh, as,
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: as most of the other teams in the league. So
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: I just think if the Eagles line can hold up,
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: it could be a pretty decisive game. I'd say in
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: favor of the Eagles. It's just, that's, that's interesting. But
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: you look at the separation and the bears aren't really
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: allowing a lot of separation. I mean, anything under three
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: on separation is pretty good. Uh, the Eagles are at 3.3,
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: which is just okay. Right.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: So kind of surprising by the way, because the bears
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: defensive backfield, you know, um, you know, they've been without
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: a couple of guys. They didn't have their, they signed
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: a big safety with, uh, Kobe Durant. Was it in
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: a free agency? No, no, no. Who did they sign
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: to play safety in free agency? Uh, it's going to
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: kill me. He's, he's out for, he's on IR right now. Um,
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: but either way, uh, they're, they're cornerbacks outside of Jalen
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: Johnson where we're considered kind of liability. Uh, no, it
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: was a big money, uh, thing. Sorry about that. Um,
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: But either way, the point is they're not known for
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: how– Oh, Kobe Bryant. Kobe Bryant. Yeah, I said Durant.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: I think the Cowboys signed Kobe Durant from a different team. But, yeah, Bryant.
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• 17:35
  Speaker 2: And then the other stat I'd say that definitely is
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: interesting to me is their stuff rate is only 14%. So,
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: I mean, again, it's just it's really contingent on the
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: Eagles offensive line play in my mind. But it might
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: be a kind of a get right game because the
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: Bears defense is not the best defense in the league
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: for sure. I mean, they I remember last year they
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: were just really good at creating turnovers, but they really
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: weren't that special. And I don't think they're that special
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: this year either. But I mean, they still have some players.
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: They still have some pretty good players on that defense.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: Right. So remind people, EPA on defense, it's good if
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: it's negative?
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: Correct.
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: Okay. So the Bears have actually had a good EPA
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: per play and EPA per rush. So they're playing a
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: little bit above what people expect of them on defense,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: at least from an EPA standpoint.
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: Right. And what that could mean is they're having pretty
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: good splash plays. But when we look at DVOA later,
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: we'll see if consistency is a thing. And it might be,
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: it might not be. I don't want to spoil it.
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: I love it. I love the tease. All right, now
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: the Eagles' defense against the Bears. When you think about this,
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: you always think about the Bears and their vaunted rushing game.
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: I know in week one when they rolled up 59 points.
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: I mean, they had– what was the– Menon guy had
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: a 61-yard touchdown on his first carry, I think, or
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: one of his carries. So, yeah, they run the ball
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: very well.
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: Yes, they do. And that's– I mean, we saw that
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: in the comparative statistics above. So it is very interesting.
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: And if we're talking strictly about rushing, their run success
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: is at 40%, and their stuff rate's at 14.3. The
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: Eagles actually have been having a higher stuff rate at 16.4. Again,
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: it's really annoying that NFL Pro doesn't have run success.
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: I actually probably can get it from one of the
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: other ones now that we have some more statistics at
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: our disposal. Maybe I'll start adding that, but I don't
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: like to usually cross numbers. because they measure them differently.
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: So it's hard for me to always, I'll caveat it
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: in the future, but I do think that's interesting to
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: kind of note. Yeah.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: These are really impressive EPA numbers. for the bears offense,
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: even coming off a three point showing against the Vikings
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: plus 0.08 per play plus 0.09 per pass and plus 0.07
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: for rush. Those are, those are high numbers than we're
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: accustomed to seeing from any off. I mean, really, that's
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: just really efficient.
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: It really is.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: I know it's heavily weighted by week one, but it's
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: still pretty good. I mean, if you can have a
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: total flop in week two and still have numbers like that,
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: that's pretty impressive.
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, again, EPA is really sensitive to big
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: plays such as touchdowns and explosive plays. So, I mean,
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: and that's kind of all they did week one. Yeah.
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: Touchdowns and explosive plays. So I think that's, that's a
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: big reason why it's that way. True. I do agree.
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: It's still very impressive.
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: Awesome. All right. DVOA. We, talked about it in the
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: last show we're bringing it back we explained it in
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: the top of the show what does it tell us
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: that maybe others don't or agree with when we talk
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: about when the eagles have.
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: The ball yeah i mean again the eagles are positive 6.7
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: percent which is 11th in the league um which is
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: not it's not bad yep and again dvoa negative is
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: good on defense and the bears are plus 12.4 percent
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: which is 21st in the league. So again, they're not,
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: it's not a special unit in terms of EPA or
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: in terms of DVOA, which should tell you something. Yeah.
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: You look at the pass. I mean, their Eagles are,
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: that's their best part of their offense, you know, the
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: passing game. And it's the worst part of the Bears defense,
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: you know, the 23rd in the league and the Eagles
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: are 12th. So I think that there's a big, mismatch
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: potential where the Eagles could take advantage of, especially if
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: they can get the ball pass efficiently early in the game.
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: It can get kind of potentially out of hand depending
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: on how, you know, the bears respond. So I think
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: that'll be interesting. But again, the running running game is
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: not something that the Eagles have done well. And it's
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: something that the bears defense has also not done well.
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: too well even though that's a negative number remember the
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: DVOA for total it you can look at the percentage
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: and say that and compare it comparatively but you can't
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: for the pass and the rush you have to look
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: at the team rank and the Eagles being 23rd and
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: the Bears being 22nd I mean it'll be what it's
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: going to be at that point but there's nothing special
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: by either unit in you know rushing whether it's the
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: Eagles offense or the Bears defense.
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: Yes. This is like you just said, this is basically
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: a matchup of an average rushing offense right now versus
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: an average rushing defense or a.
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: Little below average. Yes.
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry. Below average rushing offense versus below average rushing defense.
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: Exactly.
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: All right. But it is DVO wise DVO wise. It's
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: an above average Eagles passing offense versus a below average
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: Bears pass defense.
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: That is true. But I was going to say for
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: the rushing, it's the movable object versus the stoppable force.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: Exactly. Well, we can also say that for somewhat for
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: when the bears have the ball and they want to
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: run the ball. That's a heck of a DVO way
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: they've got right there.
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, they're, they're first in the league at
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: plus 40.3% and the Eagles are below league average at
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: minus 8.1%. So again, again, If the Bears can run
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: the ball as efficiently as they've been, the Eagles could
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: potentially be in big trouble. That is the way that
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: this game could become a close game. We're really looking
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: at the advantages. If the Eagles can pass the ball
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: or whether the Bears can run the ball. I mean,
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: that's what this game is going to kind of come
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: down to is what it seems like. At least statistically,
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: that's what it suggests. Yes.
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: And I think this is definitely– when you look at
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: the other categories like total offense and the bears being
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: ranked eighth in D O V D VOA, the Eagles
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: being 17th on defense and the bears offense being ninth
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: and pass and the Eagles defense being 18th. It's still like,
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: that's too, just the sample size there is crazy to me.
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: It is.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah. It just doesn't seem right that the Eagles defense
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: would be like, you know, bottom half here.
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, again, but DVOA, like we talked about
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: last week, it factors in your opponents, right? So of
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: course the Eagles defense is going to be penalized for
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: playing a perceived weak team in both the commanders, but
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: especially the Titans. Right. Right. So I do think they
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: were penalized for the quality of performance, just in accordance
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: with the team that they played.
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: So very interesting. All right. So that's our, our preview
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: of this matchup. It's going to be fascinating. You know,
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: the objective journalist in me would like the quarterback play
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: for the Bears to be normal so we can just
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: evaluate both of these teams. I suspect Williams won't play.
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: We'll see. But, you know, obviously if it becomes Bajent
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: or Keenum, it takes away from the ability to really value.
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, a fan doesn't care. A fan just wants
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: to win, right? I get that. So I'm just saying
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: just from a journalist and objective standpoint, it's tough.
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: It's what they say. To be the best, you have
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: to beat the best. Yeah. it is look at the
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: end of the day you need a certain threshold number
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: of wins to position yourself for a playoff run at
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: the end of the day that that takes precedent especially
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: this early in the season right but and however you
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: want to stress test your team and see how they
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: can perform against the best yeah so.
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: And i should mention i should mention the eagles will
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: have to see what the deal is with barkley uh
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: we know goddard's out so it's not it's not like
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: apple's uh well it's not like apples to apples. I mean,
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: the Eagles also have injuries. They're not, it's not your
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: starting quarterback, but you know, they're licking some wounds too.
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: Yeah. That is an important thing to say for sure.
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: All right.
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: Great.
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: Sam, awesome job. And I look forward to recapping the
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: game with you next week from all these great analytical
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: and data point angles. So thank you again for all
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: your hard work for Sam Finkel. I'm Jeff Mosher. You've
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: been watching inside the data on inside the birds.