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F1 Canadian GP 2026 | Betting Preview · Apex Insiders Podcast

• @f1capper: Apex Insiders is back, we got F1. We are back on the calendar. It's been ages, it feels like, especially for me. I haven't sat down and watched F1 live in, well, was Japan, actually. was Japan GP since I wasn't around for Miami. But I got my guy, Alan Renegade. Actually, he has a new Twitter name, I think. Does he wanna... Darksideday: ⁓ yeah. @f1capper: So you want to enlighten us on that? What do I call you now? What do I call you? Darksideday: I still renegade but you know you can find me at at f1 tipster because you know I am the f1 tipster on twitter now @f1capper: You're still running it. ⁓ He's got multiple personas. So we don't know what he will be next week, but for now, he's always going to be our renegade F1MG days, RIP, F1MG. But ⁓ no, I am pumped. It has been a little weird too, because it is race week for the Canadian GB1, it's earlier. And it is during the same damn weekend of Indy 500. Darksideday: I @f1capper: which is not ideal, but it's not like this is first time we've had to deal with that. Normally, ND500 is the same weekend for Monaco, but yeah. So we're getting Canadian GP early, which means there's potential for weather impacts. Well, so they moved the Canadian GP to 3 p.m. local time. Darksideday: Did I clash with him? @f1capper: So it wouldn't clash because Indy 500 starts around 11 a.m. local time. Well, actually, I'm my local time. So 12 p.m. local time there. So that means that gives enough time, a little buffer before Indy 500 ends to go straight to, you probably maybe have an hour and then we can get on hot alerts. And if you don't know what hot alerts are, that is our... our alert system to let us know because this year has been the year of crappy cars. Whenever they won't take the grid, something happens. I don't know. Someone's starting to pit lane, whatever the situation may be. But it seems like that's been the hot thing on the streets for us is waiting literally till even the last minute of the cars going around to grid up. ⁓ If we all remember McLaren, you know, that one session where both cars didn't even make it out after the... what was it, the formation lap, they were trying to go out for formation lap and they couldn't even get out there, so. Darksideday: Do you to know something funny? think in Miami, McLaren had, there was some milestone of so many race starts from McLaren. But one of the races, of course, none, both of the cars didn't start, so they couldn't do it. No. @f1capper: that can do it. ⁓ I cashed on that. It's been my savior, I would say. This year has been very weird, to say the least. It's been harder to judge for good reason. Like we're still all trying to get an understanding of energy management. Let's just put it that way. And it's been so damn hard to fully grasp because you think you understand everything up until, you know, even FP3 or ⁓ FP1 to a sprint quali and then you get into the session and in quali It's like a completely different game things just change ⁓ Energy management stuff is it starts to become a problem with certain teams aka Ferrari at times You're like, whoa, they add this rocket ship and all of a sudden they can't even keep up with Hajar for an example. Actually, they probably could have but anyways, it's been it's almost been just a headache to really put your mind around it and it's actually made me. Darksideday: And then after all that you think you got it figured out and then Latoya just decided to yeet it into the wall on the last look. @f1capper: Yes. So I wasn't around for Miami. I would go back in the evening and watch what happened. I would try to not see what was happening. And after having like a great day, I'd go sit down. I'm like, ⁓ finally I get to watch this. And when I watched the race on Sunday night, I was like, you've got to be kidding me. This is how I'm going to lose LeClaire over, I think it was Piastri. Yes. Yes. Darksideday: Because you had two hits, right? Or was just the one? @f1capper: And I was like, you've got to be kidding me. Like this is the way it was. What immediately came to mind was the Perez LeClaire Las Vegas, 2023. So I was like, so this is how it feels. So it's like. Darksideday: ⁓ yeah. And I like having Cleo, you know when I first saw him, like ⁓ you saw the big tire, whatever it is, like the smoke or whatever, thought, ⁓ he's gonna really smash that. And then out of nowhere, he's still going, you're like, he's all right. But he's like somehow just damaging, driving with a damaged car. @f1capper: Yeah. He's fine. I mean, it's like he went into automatic donkey mode or something. But I will say, I do recall right on that last straightaway before he did the little spin that he had, it's like the car just decided to not work properly because the DRS wasn't even up or the overtake, I should say, wasn't even up for him. And that was a way that like, piastry got closer to him. And then there was another part in the race where Darksideday: In every corner @f1capper: I can't remember where exactly and I was like, well, this might, remember telling myself, well, this is going to make the Leclerc versus Piastri kind of sweaty at this point. I don't remember exactly what point it was, but there was a point even like 10 laps before or something like that. Yeah, something happened. ⁓ it was, it was him battling with Max. It was, and he got slowed down with, by Max. And I was like, what the fuck Leclerc? Like, Darksideday: think he ⁓ yeah, yeah. @f1capper: make it happen, get, and it, in every car after that was like, ⁓ I could just easily get by, but LeClaire was struggling, obviously, at some point, so it became, yeah, that's just one small example of how the season is going at times. I don't know about you, I got absolutely murdered in Miami. I'm even, I don't even think I finished putting my totals together. because I'm afraid to even look at what it is. ⁓ This has been a very challenging season. I knew that kind of coming in because I was like, totally new regs, totally new cars. I don't understand how the energy management system really truly works. Like we understand conceptually how it works, but when it's applied and these races and the drivers and their tactics and if someone has this type, it's like, Darksideday: You @f1capper: Now I got to start thinking of this other variable that I have to start learning and it's like impossible to learn because you don't know what they're doing, lap overlap with this thing and it's just become a challenge. And then the starts. The starts have been abysmal. Like you either are gonna be on the right end of that perfect start or you're gonna be on the wrong end of a shitty start. It's just, it's a mess. ⁓ But that's not going to shy us away. It's a new weekend. We're putting that behind. We're moving forward. We got the Canadian GP. And if we want more variables, there's rain potential. I don't know how much rain. I haven't even actually checked the weather yet. But they are saying there is a chance. I just don't know when or if it will hit. But either way, we're going to see some weather impacts. So this track, let's go through the pre. Darksideday: Yeah. It's on Sunday. @f1capper: It's on Sundays the rain to potential Darksideday: Well, I think it's been like the chances of lowering. Yeah. @f1capper: It's lowering, okay. So nothing on Friday or Saturday. Okay, so good. We can put that aside then. Well, let's talk about this track. ⁓ Basically, it's all about straight line speed, all about traction and braking. Braking is huge. ⁓ You're going just super fast and then you gotta brake hard and then you gotta... Gotta go through these turns, some tight hairpins, so it's gonna be kinda tricky. Usually this track is gonna benefit the Mercedes, their power unit, which means maybe it's still gonna be that way. I don't wanna speak too far ahead because this was previous, so I expect that it should be the same. ⁓ But yeah, I don't think the overtake zones have changed from what the previous DRS zones are, so. I think it's gonna be like after turn five, you have an overtake. You obviously have the long straight around after turn 10, that's gonna have the overtake. So there's a lot of different ways that you can have overtake after 13 where the checkered is. So I believe they haven't changed. If not, I posted some fake news on the preview, but C3, C4, C5 is what we're going with. So the softest range, so it's. Did they, I don't even remember what they used for Miami. It could be the same, I'm not even sure. So tire stress could be pretty critical here. It really can be. So ⁓ you need to have low downforce. It's all about the straights and breaking into those sharp corners. So it's all about low downforce as much as you can. And then let me go through the upgrades. So apparently Mercedes is bringing an aero package upgrade. So they're going to do a front wing revision, a flow to the front suspension covers and something to do with the underbody. I'm not exactly sure what. Lighter gearbox. So hopefully they can kind of extract a little bit more weight from the car. And then some other stuff, electronics, know, this turbo lag, I hope so. Like I'm kind of tired of seeing Kimi and Russell. Darksideday: you Something to help with the starts I read as well. @f1capper: be donkeys at the start. Yeah, this really has been. And yet he still freaking won in the last race. Let's see. McLaren looked pretty solid from their upgrades from the last one. So they're looking to refine all the work that they've done. So it sounds like they're going to bring a new rear wing to test out. A new floor concept is what I'm hearing potentially. So. Darksideday: Bang and just kill me as well. think it was the second part of their upgrade, so the first one was at Miami. @f1capper: Yeah. Yeah. So they're bringing, they're kind of finalizing everything. I think the, what they're going for is trying to create more aero efficiency, which is what they try to try to do. They want to make it more versatile across multiple tracks ⁓ and bringing in more straight line speed. So if it does work, could we possibly be seeing a challenge for ⁓ Mercedes? Don't know, but it sounds like they could. But that also depends on like how does Mercedes upgrade package work? Mercedes says they expect to see a three tenths gain even. I was like, Jesus, okay. Ferrari is bringing some minor stuff. I think they just need to bring Jesus to life and maybe they can actually bring a full weekend from end to end. I know, I know, but I'm just, that's why I'm saying maybe they can bring some Jesus in their life. Yeah. Darksideday: Ferrari upgrades are never anything good, just... The wing. Once they're working, they've got their wing working. @f1capper: Yeah. Yes. And then Williams, I know they were trying to increase to their latest upgrade package, which they did reduce the weight. Like they said they wanted to, that was part of their plan. It looked good. We did call it out in the last race that we might see Williams be a little bit undervalued, which was absolutely true. We nailed it with a lot of pickups too, because we had... Albon and signs were constantly in this 15 and a half, 16 and a half and they cleared it. No problems. ⁓ And just to kind of... Darksideday: Yes. The didn't bring any upgrades to Miami, but they're bringing the upgrades to Canada, so there definitely should be some improvement. @f1capper: They should, and I'm interested to see how they actually go into FP1 too, because normally they like to take those methodical approaches, but maybe they get a little bit more aggressive and really try to push ⁓ and see what they can extract out of that, especially with FP1. They only get FP1, so sprint weekend, by the way, if you haven't noticed, they changed it for the first time for Canada. ⁓ And then I believe Audi is bringing a major package too. It sounds like they're actually doing like a test of this package and they may not even implement it, but we'll see. They're trying to target like reliability, making sure that they can actually start the races at this point. ⁓ Let me go back to Red Bull. It sounds like the upgrades they brought, it was like a Hail Mary and it showed pretty good rewards for them. and they want to be able to continue to improve on that. So one of the biggest weaknesses for them was their balance. So a lot of trickiness when it came to medium speeds and some of the high speed cornering where their balance was kind of off and it would just kind of give them a little snap. So they're hoping that they'll improve that with their upgrades. So they are also trying to continue to reduce weight because they are still a little bit heavier than they want to be. Oh racing bulls potentially bigger package is what I'm seeing side pods and cover midsection wings. We'll see what that that does for them and Alpine. I think there is a rumor that they're bringing the new rear wing just to try to reduce some drag. They look pretty solid at the last race. So we'll see if that that continues to to be an improvement. And then I'm not going to even talk about Aston Martin or Cadillac. They just got a lot of work to do. They they got lots of work to do. So, but we are here. We are here with the sprint, another sprint weekend. I was kind of hoping we would get like a traditional weekend. So I'm not even sure where to begin. have not placed any bets, but I have been kind of peaking a little bit. So I'll start with one. Do you have any bets going right now? I haven't even checked to see if anyone's. got any. Darksideday: So I'm gonna, I'm gonna, not my own, I do have one my own, which I think is good. The price is a bit, could be better. But on one book, let me just get it out. @f1capper: Okay. Darksideday: So this is for... @f1capper: ⁓ actually, let me do this. Darksideday: Lando Norris podium finish @f1capper: Ooh. Darksideday: at 1.75 at Betfred if you got it in the UK. Most other places are 1.62 but if you've got access you've got to take that I think. @f1capper: me see, can you see my screen now? Darksideday: Okay. @f1capper: All right, which one? Where are we going? Where are we going to? Bet 365? Darksideday: ⁓ We can do but yeah sure. @f1capper: Wait, which site were you saying? Darksideday: ⁓ on you won't this up pet friend @f1capper: ⁓ I don't have that. Darksideday: ⁓ But we can do it from back 365 anyway. @f1capper: And this is top three for the race. Darksideday: Yeah, ODIM, yeah. @f1capper: Hmm Darksideday: So I think, I don't know if it's maybe a little short but it could not be at minus 163. I remember last year, well last year Norris questioned PX3 but Norris was like nowhere in qualifying. So that shows a good race pace. McLaren have good qualifying. Norris has a good qualifying. He seems to have got used to the car. Was unlucky not to win Miami. @f1capper: Yeah, yeah. ⁓ Darksideday: I doubt Max is anywhere close to the Mercedes engine powered cars. @f1capper: I like it, but I also hate it. And the only reason why I don't like it, and I'll just give you that reason very quick, is because it is for the race. And given it's a sprint weekend, they might actually learn a lot. I don't know how much they'll learn because you'll be able to remove Park Formae. then hypothetically speaking, if the rain chances increases, then you get another potential you we'll let you do more adjustments to the car ⁓ if they claim that it will be a wet race event at any point in the race and because of the odds too. I'm high on Norris against Piastri as a teammate. would almost do. Darksideday: I think I saw somewhere else as well, Norris without... I think it was without the Mercedes. Let me see where it was, that Evans. @f1capper: I need to get out of IndyCar here. I've been so focused on that. Darksideday: think that was Canby, I think. @f1capper: Well, I'm gonna see what, while you're doing that, I'm gonna go to the race for MGM. They don't have head-to-head. Darksideday: Okay, yeah, I got it on Canby. Winner without Russell and Kimmy Antonelli. Lando Norris 2.0. Yeah. @f1capper: That's a good one. I like that one better because if I can do, I do agree, Piestri has struggled here ⁓ and the stats show it too. think I had some stats that were showing like Norris just, he seems to like this track a little bit more than Piestri. And I think the same goes for Leclerc. He's just had his, this has been his crutch is this track. He doesn't like it. It's, he'd never. Darksideday: Yeah, I feel that's the best thing. @f1capper: You know, normally we see him as a top three merchant always at most tracks and or he's challenging for a top three Pretty much at any any track, but this track he just there's something about it He doesn't like and now watch because I say that and with the new reg something happens and he ends up just being god in going god mode, but there is something about this track in leclerc that he doesn't like which is Kind of why I'm kind of, want to find ways to back Norris, but fade LeClair. And I'm kind of eyeing those matchups. If I can see any of those matchups, I might take a chance on it. Going to complete opposite of what I did the last, ⁓ the last race, although it worked out for pretty much all sessions, except for the beautiful race at Miami where he decided the last lap to be a donkey. Well, actually that was against Piastri, but still, ⁓ Yeah, I kinda, I don't wanna do top three race yet because the odds could get shorter. But if we do see within the three sessions that happened before the race, you might, I think you have a better opportunity of just waiting or just not doing it at all because if it does confirm he's just electric, okay, you missed out on it. But there's also the chance of, You're going to see the both Mclaren or both both Mercedes one, two, and you're going to see like him, the Ferrari and maybe Max fighting for that, that third spot in the margins a lot tighter. And you could probably get his odds maybe even longer come race days. So that's where my head's at with Norris and waiting. So I just, I just can't do it at those odds right now. Darksideday: I will say another thing that I do like, which I think is just an auto bet, which it was nearly every time he was in Formula One before. Our favourite Mexican. @f1capper: Don't say it Perez. It's a wee back on the. Darksideday: Sergio Perez. Any session, any session over that donkey butt ass. @f1capper: I thought Botos was better in FP. Darksideday: He wasn't qualifying but it's because Perez butchered his last Q1 lap. He butchered it but every other session, even in the race, he was a lap ahead of what else. @f1capper: I mean, you don't really have to sell me on it. I've always thought Perez was better than Botas. And I think finally maybe he's just getting grips of the car and just doing better. Darksideday: And it's only at 1 minus 120. You've got to take it. We've got to take it. It's the community bet for the... @f1capper: Yeah, I would take that. Just do it. Do the donkey bit. The pre-community bet, the pre-community bet. Let's, I'm gonna do that actually. For the race? Or are we doing all sessions? All sessions. I mean, why not? I'll do it for the race too. I will be in on that. I will do a unit. Maybe a unit. Maybe I'll do all of them and just split out like. No, that's what I mean. That's what, yeah, that's. Darksideday: For the race. Well, whatever session you'd like. I'm doing it for the race. winner unit ⁓ even better to win a unit ⁓ yeah @f1capper: If I'm gonna bet anything, it's always to win a unit, win a half unit, unless we're talking about odds that are over even. Like then we're gonna be risking either more or less, whatever. ⁓ Okay. All right. Well, that brings me to, let me, I'm gonna go free money Friday. ⁓ tee that up always. ⁓ If we're thinking, and I don't know what your opinion is on Leclerc coming into Montreal. The juice is kinda high here. I don't wanna pay it. And it's also Kimmy in FP1, but he hasn't actually been that bad. I don't think in FP1, I think he's been pretty solid. Why wouldn't I take Kimmy here? I don't wanna like the odds, but I am considering it. Darksideday: Thank you, man. Who won SP1 in Miami? @f1capper: Die. Darksideday: Mr. Charles, is @f1capper: He did, but we're at it. Darksideday: And that was a sprint weekend and Kimi and George were fifth and sixth. @f1capper: He did. Alright, you talked enough sense into me. I'm not gonna get cute with it. ⁓ But what about Max versus Piastri? Darksideday: I mean no, just leave it. Leave it. Leave it. Who are going to bet on that one? @f1capper: Leave it, leave it, come on. I was gonna bet max. I mean The dude Just was ripping laps at nurburgring. He's got to be primed ready to go He must be mad too because they didn't win. He broke the car ⁓ Darksideday: Yeah. @f1capper: Well, then what about the top three? Which one? The Norse? Darksideday: ⁓ yeah, I like that one, I like that one. One down. 1 up. Yeah, let's play. @f1capper: This one, I'm waiting for, well actually let's see what bet365 has. That's always our benchmark. Darksideday: even block. @f1capper: Just don't, just don't show me anything, huh? Why don't you? Why don't you? I am blocked. What the hell? What do you have? What do you have for it? Darksideday: Let me see if it even exists. @f1capper: Man, we got some IndyCar specials too, man. need to get on that. Yeah, that's for tomorrow. We're to have a pod drop tomorrow. Let's see what... Darksideday: That's for another podcast. It's sort of similar odds. Russell's 1.57, Kimmy's 1.61, Claire's a bit shorter. Yeah, she's a bit longer. @f1capper: ⁓ What is LeClaire's? Darksideday: plus 105. @f1capper: ⁓ let's see what they have here. Yeah, same as yours. Hmm. Darksideday: Oh yeah, I think they copied it. They're 365 ones. @f1capper: So out of all this talk I've had about like maybe I should fade LeClair, he's not good here, I'm gonna end up backing him in FP1. Is that what I'm hearing? Darksideday: think so. @f1capper: Okay, let me ask you, do you believe in the Colapinto hype? He looked good last race, last two, even? I think last two? Maybe last two? It's been so long since I don't even remember Japan anymore. It's been that long. Darksideday: No. to the Maybe he thinks it's Monza all over again or something, I don't know what's going on. Let me see. It's because that drive to survive where, who's that, who's that team principal? Who's the crook? The gangster? @f1capper: Floria- Florio. Darksideday: Yeah, appropriate when he said you need to give more and he has to be fair. @f1capper: Creatory for you. Creatory, Florio, same thing. Dude, I gotta say, I gotta say. Darksideday: I don't know what to think of Colour Pinto because you know when you bet it would be like P18 again you're like... @f1capper: I know, I know, that, but where I was eyeing it was like maybe the, maybe we're juicing him too much now. I am a believer in Alpine. I did say that before the season, Alpine could be the best middle midfield. Darksideday: And they do have a Mercedes, but so does Williams. I don't know about that one. @f1capper: I was thinking signs, but I'm not getting cute with it. I'm just kind of rolling through some of this. I don't want to touch the Ocon Liam Lawson. ⁓ I don't want to touch that. I just do not know what I'm getting out of Audi anymore. It makes me not want to anything with them unless it's a head-to-head and even then between teammates, I'm too nervous to want to do that. This one is interesting though, Bearman over Albon. He did not do as well last year, so I don't know. And I don't know what I'm getting out of Haas this weekend, although they're bringing upgrades. Darksideday: You know, all Williams, with their upgrades. Like, how are they gonna do? FP1? @f1capper: Mm hmm. Yeah. So I'm struggling. I'm struggling here. I'm waiting for an odds to go into my favor, ⁓ but I don't want to pay the juice. So maybe the play is right here in front of me. Lando over Oscar. I am waiting for BetOnline to post because I'm hoping they'll post like a minus 120. Darksideday: What's the Alonzo one? Alonzo Strong. @f1capper: Oof. We're back. We're back! We're back, dude. We are back. Darksideday: No, no, no, no, ⁓ That was fun, me and Jen's been Lance Stroll over a long day over a season. What were we thinking? @f1capper: ⁓ my god, you guys are so insane. Darksideday: But you know it went from like plus two five, two two five to minus, literally minus two two five. were like, ⁓ we did it, we did it. And he was nowhere near the end. @f1capper: Yeah. No. And you kept pressing. That's when you just take your chips and you go. That was it. That was it. But I think the play that I'm going to probably do is going to be Lando over Oscar. I'm just waiting for better odds. So unofficial, official free money Friday pick for me is going to be Lando over Piastri and FP1. Most likely. I'm just waiting for the odds to drop. for the other books. That's what I'm leaning. That's what I wanna go with. If you want a top driver, well, I'm gonna say that Renegade told you to take LeClaire at 2.25, so. But if he wins, I told you to take it. So. I don't know. Top 10? Probably shit odds. Actually, not as bad. Darksideday: top 10. Mmm, I guess they want the key. @f1capper: Yeah, not bad. don't know. That's, that's, that's price, right? To be honest with you, I think grid rival has them at like, I don't think they have practice yet, but they have them priced around 9.5 for most of the sessions. Let me see. Let me just quickly give you guys a benchmark here. F1. So sprint qualifying, they have Hajar at eight and a half. and then Gasly nine and a half and they have Colapento. So this is what I'm thinking about doing is just fading Colapento for, ⁓ for sprint qualifying. This is another thing I do. I just don't know what the hell to expect. We're going to get through FP1. We're going to see them do their soft runs. We're going to get all horny over like, ⁓ look at the speed these guys had. And then we're going to all of a sudden. Yeah. And then we get to Darksideday: Yeah, look at Liam Lawson. @f1capper: first two sessions of sprint qualifying and people are struggling on mediums, energy management, this and that. I don't know what, what to expect. It's going to be tricky. It's going to be a tricky one. if I'm going to just, I'm going to just throw some darts here, take it or leave it. But if you're going to do any like top tens, my maybe. Take a chance on Lindblad. 3-1? I don't even like that. I don't even like that. Let's see what top 6 would offer instead. feel like top 6 you would have a better shot with just taking Gastly or something. Yeah, 4-1. Yeah, I mean, that's your best better long shot unless you want to take a chance on Hajar. Drivers not in the top 3. Darksideday: No. @f1capper: Let me ask you this. Do you think Russell actually comes back? Do think he comes back to form? This is a track that he likes. Darksideday: I so. @f1capper: I mean, I do too. Darksideday: I mean Kimi did get polled last year in that Donkey Mercedes sprint qualifying so it could just be track specific. @f1capper: Mm-hmm. Darksideday: And I think, ⁓ like this is bylo, Russell scenario, Russell's not suddenly a donkey like Sergio Perez unless they do some sort of crazy second driver thing to Russell but I doubt it. @f1capper: Well, I'm not gonna put my money on him to win, but I will say I think you can get some, think, let me see here, pole position. Yeah, you got pretty good odds on Kimi right now at 35 cents. I think he's right now favored at least the sites I was seeing. I mean, he's about the same. It's about the same. It's about the same. Darksideday: Even a head to head with Kimi and Russell I think. @f1capper: ⁓ let's see, let's see like a sprint shootout. Let's see what DraftKings has given us for, for some of this stuff. Well, there you go. You could take Lando Norris in the sprint shootout or sprint qualifying top three plus 120 if you really like him this week, this weekend. Darksideday: No. think Max is definitely priced too low and then we say that they grab hold position but definitely @f1capper: Yeah. I mean if you believe in LeClaire, there you go. Use that 350 for you. 4.5. Did that- Darksideday: I saw max was minus 1000 for top six. was like, what? @f1capper: What the hell? No. Give me the no side and I'll take my chance on that. Probably will get to top six. I'm just not at those odds. To make Q3, this is where it gets a little interesting. If you don't think Kalapinto is real, you have a massive opportunity to take on two to one, three to ones with any one of these guys. Obviously, which what? Darksideday: I the altis @f1capper: I mean, got them at $350 if you really wanted them. you could just go... Well, you could just do... Let me see what the winner without. Darksideday: Definitely not all. @f1capper: in 1901. I don't know what Albon ever signs is like, but these are intriguing to me as a long shot for sprint qualifying. I think it's if you're wanting to take a chance. I mean, I wish it was 10 to one, but I'm not gonna get too greedy. Eight plus 850 is not terrible for a long shot. But especially if you don't think Colapento is going to do anything. And I'm a Lawson hater, so I'm always going to be biased towards he's not going to do well ⁓ at this point. So everyone's gone to my side. I'd like to give a shout out to Lights Out where last year we had a discussion around Kimi versus Lawson, who's going to be a better driver. Just saying. I'm just saying. Darksideday: one's an alternator I think that's justified. Was this when we all thought Kimmy was a donkey? @f1capper: This was before the season even started. This is before the season started. And I was like, nah, dude, Kimmy's got way more potential right now than Lawson. Let's see, not really anything here you want to take. Um, yeah, I don't think these, I mean, yeah, I guess you could just take any one of them at plus 450. Darksideday: So are Cadillac ever going to be competitive? @f1capper: I don't think this year, no. I don't even think next year. think... Darksideday: Bye next year. @f1capper: I think it's a three to five year thing for them to even get to a point where they're like, wow, they're actually competing with just the midfield at this point. That's a three to five year experience. So this one, they knew that too. They knew that going in, that's why they picked the drivers that they picked. They didn't want just. Darksideday: much shorter. @f1capper: any rookie driver in there. They needed seasoned drivers that were more recently in F1. They picked Perez. I know he was on holiday for a year, but they picked him because at least he was a high performer at one point. They picked Botas because he's been a reserve driver. He was on the grid the year before that. Like he hasn't... Darksideday: They're both competent. @f1capper: Yeah, they know how the workings are with F1, working with the engineers, being able to communicate with them. And that's what they needed is they didn't pick them because they needed drivers. They needed drivers and someone that knew how F1 worked and it was established to be able to do that. Because what you're going to then see is maybe Botos gets the can, I don't know. Maybe both of them stay for one more year. But then after that year, that's when they start taking their chance on, sounds like they're really waiting to bring Herda in. ⁓ So he could be the guy that comes in and steps in. So, ⁓ qualifying margin. We didn't talk about sprint qualifying, but in our premium chat, actually we were talking about the margin, which has been very tricky this year because you would expect like, wow, the margin should have wider gaps. But because Mercedes is like 1A, 1B, as long as Russell isn't being a donkey, he's always neck and neck, or both cars are neck and neck with each other. So that kind of ruins the margin. The margin to me screams over 0.2 when it comes to FP1 specifically, because it's a track that's never used, there's always gonna be dust, there's gonna be things that they need to rubber it in basically. Then I looked at last year, what I did, I had that same methodology and I got screwed. The margin went just below, I think 0.1, barely or something, I don't remember. So I say that now, I would endorse, that was not, that was not. So I say I would endorse the over 0.2, but my mind is starting to shift to, Darksideday: That wasn't a sprint weekend, was it? @f1capper: Don't even mess with it. If you are going to mess with it, I think my mind has been kind of stuck on it's under 0.1 or don't even play it at this point, which is sad because that's one of my favorite markets. Yeah, it's just. Darksideday: Shout out to, I can't remember what year it was, 2022, 2023 when CGTV went down and Bottas Rhymed and he won, FP won, and a few people in the server had him. @f1capper: Oh my gosh. Yeah. 2024. Oh my God. That was so great. Can we get another one of those? So yeah, I think, I think, I don't know. I don't have anything that I truly like just yet. This is interesting though. Double podium finish for the GP. I mean, Mercedes should be. I don't know what the odds are anywhere else. Darksideday: What has Russell been doing the last two races? He should have been there as well. @f1capper: Yeah, and if we expect that he's gonna do well, let's see, both cars podium finish. I mean, yeah, I don't know. I think this is, because if Russell and ⁓ Kimi end up doing like superb in FP1, or if they're even just in the top five. Darksideday: I mean after race one it's the type of thing that'd probably be minus 400 but because Russell's been a bit of a donkey. @f1capper: That those. Yes, exactly. I think we're getting an opportunity right here, so I am tempted to take that on. I am, of course, always worried about the starts, but if we're talking about a long race, you could see what those Mercedes can do. They can recover. Now, Russell didn't recover in Japan, but that's a hard to pass track. Last race, I get... don't remember where he ended up, but he wasn't in top three, right? I think he was like four, P4, I believe. He just had a terrible weekend, but if he gets it right from the beginning, minus 165 is gone. He's gone. Minus 165 is gone. That's gonna be a minus 400 bet, easy. So I think that is a bet that I'm willing to take on. Darksideday: Yeah, it was beautiful, yeah. It would have been P5, but yeah. @f1capper: Yeah, yeah, exactly. Yeah, that's right with LeClaire. Was that, I can't remember. I'm trying to remember all these different things, but I don't mind that. The Ferrari minus 110. I hate it, but I love it. Darksideday: No, you can't take that. You know that's positive on some sides, it's plus or minus some sides. @f1capper: I know. Oh, it is? I just, this is my first time seeing a double top six here. Darksideday: But you can't, Lewis Hamilton will be like, for no reason, seventh. You just know it, going nowhere. @f1capper: I actually think this might be the opposite though now. I think it's gonna be the opposite. think it's gonna be, it's gonna be LeClaire that struggles and maybe Hamilton does better than him, but you're right, that plus 135. Come on, we gotta throw something at this, right? What's this grid right? Darksideday: Don't be silly. Lewis Hamilton is getting to Silverstone, getting third place and going yep that's it, see you @f1capper: Let's see what it was. He for the let's see what they're both projects. So Hamilton is five and a half Guaranteed Leclerc is four and a half. Yeah, he's four and a half So they're both already projected to be four and a half and five and a half. So the top six I think plus 135 especially a plus 135 or even longer That is worth at least the nibble to say I think I would take this on I think so And I was just shilling how much I Ferrari could struggle here. I don't, I don't know what I'm thinking anymore with this, this track, but. I think that's where I'm nervous about it. That's why I haven't really thought too hard about that. And then double top 10. Let's see. Darksideday: Outing. @f1capper: Why not Red Bull? I mean, Hajar should do better this time, Darksideday: It should do, @f1capper: see what the double it's their double top 10 here Come on. Let's see. practice winning car, podium finish. I don't even have a top 10 on here, both top 10 yet on that site. I don't think, let's see, race specials, oh race top finishes actually, top 10. Oh, they only have just top, I guess you could just, no, a Jar is minus 250. Let's do some quick math here. So. What is Max at? Max's, mine is 2000, Jesus. Darksideday: I mean, that's probably fair enough. @f1capper: I mean, the odds are technically from bet online puts it at minus 213 for that. Where else is there? Let me see. ⁓ this popped up finally. Nice of you to show up finally. See what would be both top 10. Is this Canadian? Yep. Let's see. Red Bull. Yeah, dude. I might have to take this one on DK. Darksideday: That's like taking it when you keep us at red ball though, it's like that. @f1capper: I know, but I mean... That car is faster than the midfield. It is. Hajar needs to just stop being, doing his air bridge that he does because he can relate and just get a grip and do the damn race. Don't wreck, don't do anything stupid and you'll, I mean, minus 165, that's pretty damn good, So then what does that mean for his... He's gotta be something around here. Let me see, where is the jar? It's minus 190. Where's Max? Yeah, so they're pricing it totally different. Yeah, think the minus 165 isn't a bad play. I think I've talked myself into both car markets for top three, top six, and top 10 for the first time in my life doing that. So I think I can, ⁓ I am almost there with that. I am. Darksideday: you I will say another thing that is probably value that Jens pointed out was both Aston Martin classified finishes. @f1capper: Where's that? Do I have that? I still don't have it yet, but let's look at it. ⁓ For the race? Darksideday: It might be on 365. Yeah, for the race. No, I don't want that one. @f1capper: Not, which one is it again? Let's see. To be classified. Darksideday: Maybe. @f1capper: or total clot, no, not that one. Darksideday: Evil, yeah. I think it's that one, the freeway, but that works as well. ⁓ no, no, no, no, no, no, no. @f1capper: three way. Darksideday: Yeah, the freeway, I think. ⁓ no, that's not it. @f1capper: do want to go back to classified markets though. Darksideday: Hmmmm @f1capper: Let me just type in... To be classified, total classified, and then... Darksideday: Scroll down. @f1capper: Both cars to be classified? Both cars? Darksideday: That's it. Yeah. Yeah. that 163 hours because it's been cut slightly but I'm sure hasn't been cut on other sides. I mean the car is fine now, it should finish. @f1capper: I kind of dig that. It makes me nervous, but I kind of dig that. They're not going to be in any fucking mess. They just need to finish the race. And at this point, they want to finish races, right? That's their whole point. Darksideday: Yeah. I on stake it's probably the bigger prize. @f1capper: Like it should be the opposite between Audi and Aston Martin at this point. Audi should be minus 163 and Aston Martin should be at least minus 225. Darksideday: Yeah, and I think an Audi as well, just to do the other plus 225. @f1capper: Mm-hmm. I kind of dig that. I might have to wait though to see if any of my books populate. Yeah, okay, let's keep going. Let's go to classified markets though. What are we thinking for classifieds? Darksideday: I don't like them. I looked at them. @f1capper: Well, they think under- Darksideday: Maybe the over... 19. @f1capper: Are we ready to keep going over? Are you sure? Darksideday: I think so. No. Because Canada... with walls. @f1capper: You Yeah, yeah. And I'm still nervous about they're not getting runs in, they're not having consistency with the calendar. Like I know that they've been able to test and do all these things in between, but totally different testing versus let's put it in a race and see how it does. Oh, but it is juiced heavily at 18 and a half at the over. kind of, and then if you are taking Aston Martin both to classify, there's 22 cars. I mean, I think that you, I think there is an opportunity, but I don't like it at plus 110. Let me just close it out with that. Not at plus 110. What else? What am I missing? Darksideday: No, no, no. @f1capper: Let's go, ⁓ Darksideday: special. @f1capper: Yeah. I think you can wait on it, but, whoops. But if you... ⁓ What are we doing? I think if you don't think one of the Mercedes is going to do it. Why not take a chance? You could do Lando if you wanted to. I'm not touching it, but that's if you want to have fun. And I think seeing how the starts go, actually they have, no, they don't have those up yet. The lap markets will probably populate on race day. Darksideday: You landed, Norris. What have they got last classified? @f1capper: Are we really doing this? Are we going back? Darksideday: Oh no, don't wanna give us in. Don't wanna give us in. @f1capper: Well, it's just probably taking its time. I don't know why. Yeah. It'll pop up. Darksideday: Let me have a look. @f1capper: one let's go to Darksideday: I reckon Bottas is pretty much, I'd be like, yeah. Two to one, that's it. Fill your boots, two to one. @f1capper: There you go, look at this. Freaking Caesar. Although Caesars, don't truly trust them when it comes to odds. I don't think they always, they don't make the best odds typically. Darksideday: I think there is a land of noises around that price for heads to heads. @f1capper: That's why I'm waiting for bet online to post more than just two. Ooh, we got practice matchups. Live. This is live people. Let's go. What do we have? Darksideday: the same ones we looked at before @f1capper: Well, at least Perez is minus 125 to Botas. Darksideday: Blonde straw is a bit bigger, yeah, yeah. @f1capper: Man, I actually, I just pulled up Jen's card. Man, Stake just puts up some donkey stuff, man. He was able to get Norris to Piastri at even, Perez to beat Botas at 2.3, and Russell to beat Ant at 2.4. Well, I didn't even see what that is. Like, yeah, what? And for anyone, if you're listening or watching on YouTube, whatever, BetOnline is always pretty damn sharp. They're pretty, pretty damn sharp with their lines. Yes, there are times where you'll catch them off guard, just like any book, but for the most part, like in this situation with George over Kimi, they have a price minus 130. to Kimmy when you probably can get Kimmy over George right now at any place. Let's go see. Practice, team head to head. Well, actually no, they have them at, how did he get it at that price? Darksideday: Magic. @f1capper: for real? what's ⁓ Where is it? Did they not offer it? ⁓ it is. Darksideday: Yes, sir. @f1capper: Huh. Okay. Okay. But that kind of validates, they're sharp. Here it is. Dude, boom, I'm nailing it. We're finally putting in my free Money Friday play right here, live, while we're recording. We're doing it. Darksideday: Not Charles the Terrier. @f1capper: No, I'm doing Menorah Silver Piazzery. Darksideday: Alright. @f1capper: It's It's done. We got it in. What else? ⁓ What else do I like here? What is Bearman's odds? Let's see what Bearman is doing. Actually, teammate Bearman. It's minus 160 to, ⁓ no, to Ocon. I was looking at it to Ocon. Okay, so, both top, just to recap, both top 10 markets, I do like that DK price on both Red Bulls to be in the points. Darksideday: think it was like plus one ten. @f1capper: at minus 165, it's teetering there, but that's the part, that's where it's now we're in value territory, I believe. ⁓ Even the odds, odd makers seem to think that's accurate, that is not a decay. Let's see. What else, what else, what else? And then I, my mind is tempted to do Ferrari minus 110, but I'm not gonna do it. I'm not gonna get cute. I'm just gonna wait on it. I don't mind, and I might actually do that is both Mercedes minus 165. I am a little worried about Russell's, you know, problems recently, but I think coming to a track where it should be better for Mercedes car engine, everything. and a track that he likes, I think that's the opportunity. Plus, know Kimmy's been just on it. I mean, he's been on it, he loves the car, don't change a thing, let him do his thing. ⁓ Other free money Friday plays I'm thinking about is Perez to Botas. ⁓ I'm still just shy about it. I may consider Williams on Williams crime. don't know if I'll, my mind wants to take signs, but I'll wait. Let me see. What is it actually for him? Damn, signs is minus 175. Darksideday: Definitely not. @f1capper: No, but it's minus 120 on bet online. What is he... here? up here. Yeah, see this is priced right. I mean, I guess if you like the other side, there you go. You can get Albion at plus 125 if you really want to take Albion. Oh look at that, they already moved Norris. It's now minus 125 as we speak. Darksideday: it goes to PS3. @f1capper: Yeah, north to Peashiree. Darksideday: The album price is probably valued at plus £125. @f1capper: Yeah. I think so now looking at this because I think at minus 120 is like it should be a coin flip at this point. So plus 125, I think that's reasonable for you to take. I think that's all I got in my mind right now. Darksideday: What do you think about Max No podium minus 191 or whatever it was? @f1capper: No, I don't want to mess with it. I don't want to mess with it. mean, If you believe Russ and Kimmy are going to be in the top three, then yes, you take it and you should probably take that minus 165 both podium. Otherwise, because that's going to slot in Norris, maybe Piazzari comes to form. That's what you're banking on really is you need both Mercedes to be in there or it's going to open it up for him. That's just more opinionated. true facts, that's my two cents on it. I don't know what else. I don't know what else. What am I missing? It feels like it's been forever since I've surfed these markets. What am I missing? Darksideday: I we should do a good rival. @f1capper: Ooh, let's do it. OK, so we all what do we what do we do in sprint qualifying sprint? Or race? Darksideday: selection. I think sprint qualifying, sprint qualifying. @f1capper: You want to do sprint qualifying? Okay. Darksideday: Last time I checked dabble didn't put anything up but let me see. @f1capper: Okay, well both Mercedes right now are two and two and a half. Of course, Russell's two and a half. Both McLarens are three and a half and four with Piastra at four. Max is four and a half. Hajar is at eight and a half. Gasly is at nine and a half. Colapinto is at 10 and a half. Leclerc at four and a half. Lewis is at six. Bearman at 11 and a half. Ocon at 13 and a half. Lawson 12 and a half. Lindblad 14 and a half. Then you got both the Hulkenbergs at 13 and a half. Bort is at 13. Man, that's some disrespect for Hulkenberg lately. Oh, and then you have, of course, stroll at 19 and a half Alonzo at 17 and a half and then 19 and 19 and a half for the Cadillacs and in Albon and signs are 14 and a half and 13 and a Darksideday: 17 and a half, isn't that a bit high? Let me see where he was in Miami. So in Miami sprint qualifying Alonso was... oh he didn't even take part but in qualifying he was... okay fair enough he was 17th but Hadjar was disqualified so he was 18th oh yeah and Bort didn't take part @f1capper: ⁓ hold on one second. I think I just... I don't know if I stopped recording. Darksideday: still says recording for me in the top there. @f1capper: ⁓ it is. Okay. Darksideday: 3, 2, 1. @f1capper: and go. Darksideday: But I think what I like the most is Norris better at 4 and Ocon worse at 13 and a Easy. @f1capper: I was gonna say I like the Ocon worse. And he's going to do better, isn't he? And then which one was the other one? Darksideday: Nor is better. @f1capper: at four or he was at three and a half. You had him at four you said right? Darksideday: No, I thought you said it was at four. I like your lawns are worse then. Who's he gonna be? @f1capper: No, piastries, therefore. I mean, 17 and a half is pretty high up. Let's fucking do it. Darksideday: It was a second off the next position. @f1capper: Yeah. Let me just quickly see what is his sprint lines. Man, I won't touch the sprint lines, but his race line, he said they put him at 17 and a half, man. He's not even on the sprint or the race. Interesting. Let me see. Does I know underdog has some stuff. I just want to quickly glance at them, see what they were posting, even though I'm officially limited on with them. It's pretty ridiculous what they did, but it was also pretty awesome what I did to them. Yeah, they don't have nothing. Okay. I like that we're locking it in. Sprint qualifying, Okon worse with Alonzo worse. Darksideday: Thank Easy. @f1capper: We'll do a half unit on it because it's the pod play. Darksideday: Yeah, Ocon was 17th, sprint qualifying, MWZ qualifying, 14th. Easy. @f1capper: Boom. Let's baby. Let's go. All right, it's locked in. ⁓ any, any last thoughts? Any... before we disconnect here? Darksideday: get in the paddock pass, sprint weekend, pit lane start for someone. @f1capper: Oh yeah, paddock tasks, $20. You get a seven day free trial. Give it a shot. We should be back to a normal calendar at this point. think we go straight to Monaco next week, right? Is that next week? Darksideday: I think so. You're going to make me check. @f1capper: Now I'm, I'm checking, Or wait. Darksideday: week after. @f1capper: The one time I'm like, oh, we finally get a back to back. And then when we do get the back to back, I'm going to be like, oh, I wish we had a break. Oh, OK. Well. Darksideday: Yeah, seven day free trial, try it out. Don't abuse it, just one free trial of it. @f1capper: Mm-hmm. No, I mean, if you want to abuse it, you can. You just have to deal with Alan in Renegade and F1 bettipster. Whoa. Whoops. My bad. Yeah, you'll just have to deal with Alan in Renegade and F1 tipster. ⁓ Alan's my favorite. Yeah, I think we... Darksideday: It'd be sneaky, be sneaky. Yeah, Alan will come after you. @f1capper: We've talked about a lot. will be discussing more. I'll continue to massage the data. Also IndyCar, Indy 500, I will say, because it's a special weekend. It has taken off. We had a pretty good qualifying. ⁓ A lot of us were hitting some good stuff. This is the week of you're getting tons of markets within IndyCar. So get in. That's free. You don't need the Patek Pass for that. So get into the Discord, you'll find us in the IndyCar chat. You'll see us. I'll also be dropping the podcast tomorrow with Nate and ⁓ Mike from IndyBet. So yeah, it should be good. We're starting to see a lot of things pop up. Even I just checked right now. I'm about to go scope out more stuff. All right, man. Well, it's been fun. It's been real. Shout out to Renegade for all the hard work he's been doing. and we'll see you this weekend. Darksideday: See you later.