Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Dr. Jeff Ross | Simply Bitcoin IRL
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- 0:00I won't be surprised if it goes anywhere between 200 and a
- 0:03million. It could even pop over a million
- 0:04for a little bit. But I, but I think 475 K for me
- 0:07is kind of the most likely target.
- 0:09I also have Q4 of 2025 as my target.
- 0:13It could extend beyond that based on what I'm seeing, but
- 0:16I'm kind of just sticking with, these are the predictions I've
- 0:19made for the last two years and I'm, I'm sticking with that 475K
- 0:23in Q4 of 2025. And then the other point, what I
- 0:27wanted to say is these people that are calling for, we've
- 0:29already hit our peak and that we're going to roll over.
- 0:31There are a lot of people and for whatever reason, they're,
- 0:34they're Gen. X economists and traders.
- 0:37And I'm Gen. XI can say this, I'm right in
- 0:39the middle of Gen. X.
- 0:41They are freaking people out saying we are at this historical
- 0:44peak like 1929 or 1999 and we are at the cusp of a massive,
- 0:50massive recession and we're going to have a deflationary
- 0:53bust and stocks and Bitcoin are going to absolutely crash and
- 0:57get demolished. And so is oil like literally
- 1:00worse than 1929. There are multiple people
- 1:02talking about this. I think they're wrong.
- 1:04I, I, I look at that, you know, I study macro.
- 1:06I run a macro hedge fund. It's a multi strategy macro
- 1:08fund. I couldn't disagree more.
- 1:11We're all looking at the same data.
- 1:12I think that we are just at the early stages of a new economic
- 1:16cycle. Doctor Ross, hello.
- 1:22How you been? I don't think, I don't think
- 1:24you've been on the show for a couple of months now.
- 1:28A couple of months in Bitcoin terms is like years.
- 1:31So welcome back, you know, and and and that we were talking
- 1:35about this before we went on air.
- 1:37I do miss you on I do miss you on Twitter.
- 1:39You know, I I do, I do you. You had some amazing takes and
- 1:42you've gone Noster only these days.
- 1:44You're kind, Nico. Thanks for having me on your
- 1:46show. I have missed you and your show
- 1:49and I do miss you on Twitter. I, I, I'll just reiterate what
- 1:52we're talking about earlier is I knew my Twitter account, I think
- 1:55in September and it's been awesome in general.
- 2:00My stress level immediately went way down.
- 2:03But I do miss the interaction with my friends on Twitter.
- 2:06So that's, that's been tough And I I was hoping there'd be more
- 2:09of a wave of people coming over to nostril only, but it's been
- 2:13fun. It's been fun to watch it grow.
- 2:15I will say that the experience now on Noster using different
- 2:19clients, I, I use a primal now is way better than it was a year
- 2:23ago and even way better than it was six months ago.
- 2:26So, so it's been great. But yes, I do Missy, thanks for
- 2:29having me back on your show. I've been pretty reclusive and
- 2:31that's been on purpose for the last probably 6 to 12 months or
- 2:36so. I don't get out much and but but
- 2:40I said if I'm if I come out of hiding, I'm gonna come on your
- 2:42show because I really appreciate you and all the work you do for
- 2:45Bitcoin. I appreciate it, Doctor Ross,
- 2:47and again, it's it's an honor to have you back.
- 2:49Now, one of the things that I did 'cause I, I do hang out on,
- 2:52I do hang out on nosters, especially since we went through
- 2:55kind of like a deplatforming scare.
- 2:57And that's really when it all snapped in my mind.
- 2:59I was like, OK, you know, it's probably a good idea to even if
- 3:04the volume isn't there, like, you know, really help support
- 3:07this, this protocol. And, and I, and I'm a huge fan
- 3:10of Primal. We actually had the CEO on
- 3:14today's show earlier on today and we were talking about the
- 3:17two point O update, which I think is really, really cool.
- 3:21So anyways, I, I did see one of the posts that you posted and I
- 3:25do want to talk about that because I think in Bitcoin
- 3:28terms, we, we all experienced, you know, and you were around
- 3:33during this time, Doctor Ross, like the 2021 bull market.
- 3:37And I think a lot of people had their, they didn't meet the bull
- 3:41market, didn't meet expectations.
- 3:43And I, when I'm seeing this bull market is people still have a
- 3:47lot of PTSD from that time, but I'm seeing the price at 106,000.
- 3:53And historically the year after the halving is the year of the
- 3:57parabola, less than 100%. We're at 200 K.
- 4:01And it seems like you're one of the only people that is feeling
- 4:06as bullish as I am because recently, I don't know where you
- 4:08said this, but I saw that you were talking about a $475,000
- 4:13Bitcoin in 2025. So could you walk us through a
- 4:17little bit of your thought process on this?
- 4:20Sure. So let let me back up.
- 4:21I'll, I'll try to hit on the points you're talking about.
- 4:23So 2021, I still maintain was a fluke.
- 4:27I think it was an anomaly. I think that we were going to
- 4:30have a major exponential move higher like like it does, like
- 4:34Bitcoin traditionally has done. And then out of left field, a
- 4:37Black Swan event. China banned Bitcoin mining and
- 4:41said you have leave our country and it and it was like legit.
- 4:45It wasn't like, oh, we're thinking about, you know,
- 4:47banning it like we have in the past.
- 4:48And it was legit. And so 50% of the hash rate
- 4:52disappeared in about a month. And I know you were there and I
- 4:55was there and it was crazy. And it literally just took all
- 4:58the air out of the room. I wiped it out.
- 5:00It was rough. On top of that liquidity, which
- 5:03is another thing I follow, the liquidity cycle was already
- 5:07starting to peak at that time. So, OK, so those two things
- 5:10happened. As we remember, Bitcoin went way
- 5:13down in the summer of 2021. And then it tried to make this,
- 5:16you know, really, you know, admirable comeback again.
- 5:20And it did get back up to new highs, whatever, 69 K somewhere
- 5:22around there. But I maintain that that was an
- 5:25anomaly. I maintain that if that wouldn't
- 5:27have happened, if China wouldn't have done what it did, probably
- 5:31also if SPF and all those frauds wouldn't have happened as well
- 5:34that were fooling people into thinking they were actually
- 5:36buying Bitcoin. But they got, they got smoked
- 5:38and they were not. If that hadn't happened, I think
- 5:41the price of Bitcoin would have been about 125 K back in 2021.
- 5:46So then we went through that bear market.
- 5:48The bear market was exceedingly painful and it got, and it was
- 5:50just horrible at the end, right when all those centralized
- 5:54exchanges went bust and and all the Bitcoin just went on to the
- 5:57market, smashed the prices, everything went down.
- 5:59So that was tough. That was all, I think a very
- 6:02unusual a couple of years for Bitcoin.
- 6:05I think now we're back on a more normal schedule.
- 6:08I think that Bitcoin is going to surprise many people this time
- 6:11around. I hear, you know, first of all,
- 6:14there's this, you know, the power laws floating around
- 6:16there. I'm actually a fan in general of
- 6:17the power law, but the dude who prescribes it and talks about it
- 6:21all the time, Giovanni, who I I think is great.
- 6:23You know, we, we have personality differences, but I
- 6:26think he's a nice guy and it's fine.
- 6:28He really is pushing the theory that we have diminishing peaks
- 6:31going forward. And there are other people that
- 6:33talk about that as well. And I think a lot of people are
- 6:36getting fooled by that. I, I see people on Twitter at,
- 6:39you know, even over on Oster, we get little Twitter screenshots
- 6:41of people talking about how the peak is already in don't buy it
- 6:45at 100K. That's it.
- 6:46We're done with this cycle. I could not disagree more.
- 6:49I think those people are crazy. I think they don't know what
- 6:51they're talking about. Not by the way, not Giovanni.
- 6:53I'm saying the people who are calling for this 100K peak right
- 6:56about now and that we're heading into a recession.
- 6:58So there's a couple different schools of thoughts.
- 7:00We'll talk about both of them. I'll talk about the recession
- 7:03second. So first, do we have diminishing
- 7:05peaks? It was a diminishing peak in
- 7:082021, but I maintain that that was a fluke.
- 7:11So I'm so I think that people who think that we're going to
- 7:14have this lower peak of, I think they're saying kind of 200 K,
- 7:16maybe 150 to 250 K somewhere in there.
- 7:20My guess is they're going to sell at 200 to 250 K and they're
- 7:24going to think they're right for maybe a month and then it's
- 7:27going to just take off again and go higher.
- 7:29So my, my, I'm saying it could be 475.
- 7:31Look, I don't know, right? I have no insight into what it's
- 7:34going to be. I just think that that's kind of
- 7:37about where it would be if 20/21 had been in a kind of a straight
- 7:42line for its peak compared to 2017 and compared to 2013.
- 7:46My range is actually very similar to Jack Mahler's.
- 7:49I heard him talking the other day.
- 7:50He has exactly the same range as I do, which is 200,000 to
- 7:531,000,000. People think you can't have
- 7:55these kind of ranges, but I'm like, this is Bitcoin, right?
- 7:57Bitcoin is crazy. It's super volatile.
- 7:59I could, I won't be surprised if it goes anywhere between 200 and
- 8:02a million. It could even pop over a million
- 8:04for a little bit, but I, but I think 475 K for me is kind of
- 8:08the most likely target. I also have Q4 of 2025 as my
- 8:13target. It could extend beyond that
- 8:15based on what I'm saying, but I'm kind of just sticking with,
- 8:17these are the predictions I've made for the last two years and
- 8:20I'm, I'm sticking with that 475 K in Q4 of 2025.
- 8:26And then the other point, what I want to say is these people that
- 8:28are calling for, we've already hit our peak and that we're
- 8:31going to roll over. There are a lot of people and
- 8:33for whatever reason, they're usually they're Gen.
- 8:34X economists and traders and I'm Gen.
- 8:38X. So I can say this, I'm right in
- 8:39the middle of Gen. X.
- 8:40They are freaking people out saying we are at this historical
- 8:44peak like 1929 or 1999 and we are at the cusp of a massive,
- 8:50massive recession and we're going to have a deflationary
- 8:53bust and stocks and Bitcoin are going to absolutely crash and
- 8:57get demolished. And so is oil like literally
- 9:00worse than 1929. There are multiple people
- 9:01talking about this. I think they're wrong.
- 9:04I, I, I look at that, you know, I study macro.
- 9:06I run a macro hedge fund. It's a multi strategy macro
- 9:08fund. I couldn't disagree more.
- 9:10We're all looking at the same data.
- 9:12I think that we are just at the early stages of a new economic
- 9:16cycle. It's actually grinding and we
- 9:18can get into all this if we want to or we don't have to talk
- 9:20about any of this. But I think we're early stages
- 9:23and that the economy is going to be actually quite good
- 9:26throughout 2025. It's leaving me very optimistic.
- 9:29So come in full circle to what you're talking about.
- 9:31I am optimistic like you are. I think that 2025 is going to be
- 9:35a good year for the, as far as the price is concerned.
- 9:39I just like to remind people even when we're in a bull market
- 9:41and I officially declared that I switched from bull crab to to to
- 9:45full bull. I said around Michael Jackson's
- 9:47birthday. So the end of August of 2024,
- 9:51that's when I switched over and, and I, and I haven't looked back
- 9:55since then. I think the price was like
- 9:5653,000 or something back at the time.
- 10:00During bull markets, it's super normal to have 20 to 30% pull
- 10:04backs. That's just part of the game.
- 10:06So if we do have these big run run up run UPS, what I like to
- 10:10tell people is just imagine if the price was 30% lower a week
- 10:14from today, how would you feel? You know, so, so keep those kind
- 10:16of things in mind. If we go up to say whatever
- 10:19120,000 here in the next couple of weeks, which is kind of my
- 10:23short term target for the end of December, I wouldn't be
- 10:26surprised if we dropped down to like maybe 85 or 80,000 or even
- 10:3075,000 or so and then we kind of start taking off again.
- 10:33So just kind of prepare yourself mentally for those pull backs.
- 10:36It doesn't mean it's over. It doesn't mean the naysayers
- 10:38are right. The recession uses weren't
- 10:40correct. It's just a normal, typical bull
- 10:43market pull back. Absolutely.
- 10:45And and you know, as long as you've, you've been in Bitcoin,
- 10:50it's, there's something about the human brain and human nature
- 10:53that's like, you know, it's very difficult.
- 10:55It's like when number goes up, you want a FOMO.
- 10:58When number goes down, you know, you're like, Oh my God, you
- 11:01know, and then eventually kind of reaches that capitulation
- 11:04phase. Now, what's really interesting
- 11:07to me, Doctor Ross, is what you were just talking about.
- 11:10You're the only person that agrees with the China mining ban
- 11:14because I've been saying that for like a couple of years and
- 11:17I've been getting so, but like you see the hash rate and the
- 11:20price and it's a direct correlation.
- 11:23Like you see the hash rate dropping, the price follows 50%.
- 11:28Those miners had to sell. Then the miners have a lot of
- 11:31the Bitcoin they had to sell to relocate to a more favorable
- 11:33jurisdiction. You see the hash rate recover,
- 11:35price recovers with it, right? And then they had that like the
- 11:39glorious, you know, like trying to make it up, but it, it, it
- 11:42seems like it was almost on purpose to take the steam out of
- 11:46it. And in regard to the the next
- 11:49cycle, what why I believe you're right and I agree with you is
- 11:53that Bitcoin tends to do the exact opposite of what everyone
- 11:56expects. And the general consensus this
- 12:00cycle is 150K200K. That is what I'm seeing
- 12:05everywhere. The power line again, Giovanni's
- 12:07a great guy, you know, Fred Krueger, great.
- 12:10I love their work, right. But that is the general
- 12:13consensus on Bitcoin Twitter right now.
- 12:15And as you said, Bitcoin does the exact opposite of what
- 12:21everyone expects, right? So yes, I, I, I'm, I would be
- 12:25extremely surprised if we only did 100% because 100% takes us
- 12:32at 200 to 200 K next year. So I'd be extremely surprised.
- 12:35And then, and if you're right about the 120 by the end of the
- 12:38year, and I'm, I'm feeling that way as well, you know, it's less
- 12:42than 100% just to get to 200 K. So and, and that's, and if you
- 12:47look at Bitcoin's historical patterns, it, it, there's, it's
- 12:51never broken this, but for some reason people always think it's
- 12:54sometime is different, which is the year after the halving year
- 12:58is the parabola year. And at this time, it's like, no,
- 13:01that can't happen. And the reason that I think that
- 13:04is, is because of everyone has PTSD from 2021.
- 13:08And if people forgot what a, what a real party was in 2017,
- 13:13it's been 7 years, almost eight years since we've had that level
- 13:18of excitement, that level of euphoria.
- 13:21So yeah, I, I completely agree with you.
- 13:24And it's interesting because that's not the general
- 13:27consensus. A lot of people are are saying
- 13:29that's the opposite. Now you said something there was
- 13:32really interesting and I and I want to dive deep into that,
- 13:35which is the general kind of macro trends that you're seeing
- 13:40and you're seeing that they're very favorable heading into
- 13:422025. That's something else.
- 13:44This is the first time I'm hearing that type of stuff.
- 13:46So what are you seeing that everyone else isn't seeing?
- 13:50What? What or what are you seeing that
- 13:52interests you? Man, I just look at so much data
- 13:57and all of the data I look at is great.
- 13:59So that. So first of all, one thing is
- 14:01not good. US manufacturing has been in the
- 14:04dumps. It's been in contraction or
- 14:06recession mode, meaning a level below 50 on the ISM, it's these
- 14:11scales that we use. If it's above 50, it's
- 14:13considered it. It, it's increasing, it's
- 14:16advancing. If it's below 50, it's in a
- 14:18contraction or it's in a recession.
- 14:21So US manufacturing has been stuck in this weak sauce zone
- 14:26for about two to 2 1/2 years, and it's rough.
- 14:28So if you're, you're in the, you know, manufacturing industry in
- 14:31America, things have been tough. I, I grant that to everybody.
- 14:36So, but why does it not matter that much?
- 14:38Because the services sector is such a huge part of the American
- 14:43GDP. So the economy in America is run
- 14:45on the services sector, not manufacturing.
- 14:48It's like a 2 to one ratio, even a little bit more than a 2 to
- 14:51one ratio. So, you know, not that I, I, I
- 14:54feel bad for people who are in these sectors, but it doesn't
- 14:57drive the economy. What drives the economy is
- 14:59services. Services is killing it with the
- 15:01numbers just came out again this morning and I don't have them on
- 15:04me, but I think it was 58 or 59 or so.
- 15:07So expansion, they're just expanding like crazy, doing very
- 15:10well. And overall the Composite Index
- 15:13is getting pulled up very solidly because of services.
- 15:16So manufacturing is weak, but it's only manufacturing housing,
- 15:20which everybody talks about that, you know, and I was one of
- 15:23them in 2022. I thought the housing market was
- 15:25going to collapse because of what was happening with rates
- 15:28and all and the economy slowing down and all this kind of stuff.
- 15:30I thought in 2022 that we were headed into a recession.
- 15:34And I do believe that it's fiscal spending that that saved
- 15:37us from going into a major recession at the time.
- 15:41Housing people continue to say looks like looks ugly, it is
- 15:46weak, but it's starting to improve.
- 15:48OK. So that's one that's a major
- 15:49driver of the of the economy. You can look at new orders which
- 15:53are forward-looking indicators. So if you talk to people who own
- 15:56businesses are orders in the future for the coming three to
- 16:00six months, are they looking up or are they down or are they
- 16:03about flat? Almost all of those indices are
- 16:05kind of off the charts going up. So that what does that mean?
- 16:09That means that looking into the future forward leading forward
- 16:12indicators, businesses should start to improve.
- 16:15I think we'll see manufacturing, especially with the new Trump
- 16:18administration coming in who's very pro manufacturing, very pro
- 16:21bring it back to the United States where that which I think
- 16:23is awesome. I think three to six months from
- 16:26now, US manufacturing will be doing extremely well.
- 16:30And we'll we'll be, you know, looking back and like, oh, what
- 16:32a relief. Can you believe we thought we
- 16:33were going into recession? Now look at how strong the
- 16:35economy it looks today, profits people are talking about.
- 16:39So, so I follow a lot of value investors.
- 16:41I used to kind of live in the value investing community.
- 16:44They're talking about these very stretched multiples.
- 16:47So the price to earnings ratios, price to sales ratios are kind
- 16:51of getting very high. And they'll show charts about
- 16:53how it looks like 1929 looks like 1999, those kind of things.
- 16:57They're right. But what they're missing once
- 16:59again is that if you have a growing economy, what happens is
- 17:03then those earnings start to increase, the denominator starts
- 17:06to increase, and it shrinks those values.
- 17:08So the companies grow into those expanded valuations.
- 17:12So when I look at all of those things and then multiple other
- 17:14factors, all I see is we have liquidity that's starting to
- 17:18increase again. Global M2, which had been on the
- 17:23decline throughout all of 2022, basically bottomed in Q4 of
- 17:262022. It's been going higher.
- 17:28A lot of people come come back at me and say, but in the last
- 17:31couple of months it it's been going down.
- 17:34What what's happening? Is it over?
- 17:36Have we peaked? It's only because the dollar has
- 17:38been so strong. So we've had a huge burst higher
- 17:41in the dollar basically since I think the end of October or or
- 17:44so until now, maybe even the beginning of October.
- 17:47Somewhere in that time frame. This exact same thing happened
- 17:50the last time Trump was elected. It, it, it's creates this
- 17:53strength and this optimism and, and the dollar ripped higher to
- 17:57the end of December, early January, peaked and then rolled
- 18:00over and basically fell all throughout 2017.
- 18:03I expect pretty much the exact same thing to happen where the
- 18:06dollar quits being the dollar Wrecking Ball, it rolls over, it
- 18:09kind of decreases throughout the rest of 2017.
- 18:12Why is that important? Because the dollar really
- 18:14effects all other countries. So all other countries who have
- 18:18priced their debt or their goods and services in dollar terms, it
- 18:21hurts them when the dollar is strong, when the dollar weakens,
- 18:25their own currency strengthens. It makes it easier for them to
- 18:28pay back debt. It makes it easier on their
- 18:30economy. They can sell more goods.
- 18:34It's easier for for them to run their economies and and it's
- 18:39basically just net good for the world when the dollar is
- 18:42weakening, when banks, when economies are doing well, banks
- 18:46start lending. When they lend, they're creating
- 18:48new monetary supply that increases global M2.
- 18:51And that as the global M2 starts to increase, it finds its way
- 18:54into more further out on the risk curve into stocks and
- 18:57especially into Bitcoin, which is the great absorber of
- 19:00liquidity. So lots of reasons there.
- 19:02But everything I look at, and I'm not even trying to be snarky
- 19:05about this, I see people talking about, I like, I can't believe
- 19:07we're looking at the same in data and you have a negative
- 19:09picture with what's going on. Most of them are valuations
- 19:12based or technicals based, or they're more focused on what's
- 19:16happening outside of the US because they're true.
- 19:18It's true that the EU looks really rough right now.
- 19:22It's very stagflationary and China looks very stagflationary
- 19:27right now, meaning a stagnant economy but higher inflation.
- 19:30the US, however, is not in that picture.
- 19:32And as the global growth engine, which the United States is, and
- 19:35I expect it to be even more powerfully with this in next
- 19:38administration, we are going to lead the world out of this
- 19:41stagflationary condition and into growth again.
- 19:44And that's very bullish for risk assets and especially for
- 19:47Bitcoin. And that, that, that is
- 19:49extremely exciting, Doctor Ross. And you know what I'll say about
- 19:53that? Is it it, you know, I might not
- 19:59be able to, to describe it the way that, that you're seeing it
- 20:03because you, you, you have this experience with your background
- 20:06and you're, you're seeing all, you know, all this data points.
- 20:09But I see the vibes, I feel the vibes.
- 20:11I see the hope in people. Yo, I want to tell you about the
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- 20:54And it's extremely exciting. And, and especially because of
- 20:58this, this change in, in tuning and Doctor Ross, I don't think
- 21:02we've spoken since this has happened, but you know, the
- 21:05tremendous amount of institutional, not only
- 21:09institutional adoption, but institutional acceptance of
- 21:13Bitcoin. And you're hearing left and
- 21:15right of, of traditionally very conservative companies that
- 21:21perhaps they don't have exposure to direct spot Bitcoin, but you
- 21:26hear that they have exposure to Bitcoin via the ETFs or via
- 21:31MicroStrategy, which is essentially like a Bitcoin fund
- 21:35at this point, the way that the stock is behaving.
- 21:37So, you know, it's a would it be safe to say that this is a new
- 21:42chapter in Bitcoins history? And what's really exciting too
- 21:46is all of this is happening and we're heading into 2025 where
- 21:51you're making the case that the macro environment looks very
- 21:53positive. The regulatory environment
- 21:56specifically for Bitcoin looks very positive.
- 22:00And then again, you know, the, this is a change, this is a,
- 22:04this is a change, not only institutional option, but the
- 22:07nation state adoption as well. And what I've noticed, you know,
- 22:11the last three or four months, it's absolutely hilarious.
- 22:14You have, you know, the president of Russia, Putin
- 22:16basically saying we can't ban it.
- 22:18Then a a day later news comes out that the, the Duma, which is
- 22:21the equivalent of the House of Representatives here in the
- 22:23United States, they're introducing a bill to make a
- 22:26Bitcoin strategic reserve. Brazil, a politician is
- 22:28introducing a bill to make Bitcoin strategic reserve.
- 22:31There's this this video going viral about this French
- 22:33politician making this speech at the European Parliament
- 22:36basically saying like, look, we have to take a look at this
- 22:39Bitcoin thing. We made fun of El Salvador, the
- 22:41IMF made fun of El Salvador, but this guy's like showing off on
- 22:45Twitter and he made hundreds of millions of dollars off this
- 22:47trade Like what what's going on here?
- 22:50So it's a vibe shift. The macro situation is, is is
- 22:54amazing, but I want to get your take on the and and this is this
- 22:59is, this is up your alley, Doctor Ross, right.
- 23:01The Could you ever have imagined back in 2017 the change in tune
- 23:07from the legacy financial institutions?
- 23:12I hate to be this guy, but yes, we've been talking, well,
- 23:16because we've been talking about this.
- 23:18This is inevitable. Like, right, We knew this was
- 23:20going to happen. What I will say is surprising is
- 23:23how quickly it's happened and how quickly, to your point, all
- 23:26of these things have suddenly shifted.
- 23:27And it seems like suddenly like it went from super dark and
- 23:30negative and like Elizabeth Warren is treating us all like
- 23:33we're criminals and we're all getting shadow banked and shadow
- 23:35banned, You know, Operation Choke, .2 Point, all that kind
- 23:38of stuff. And then suddenly like it's just
- 23:40gone. And like to your point, there's
- 23:43all these favorable conditions now for the first time.
- 23:45So it's always been inevitable, right?
- 23:48I've I used to go on Cafe Bitcoin and all these things all
- 23:51the time and talk about how Wall Street is coming like that's
- 23:53just a natural progression of Bitcoin.
- 23:55And what we need to do as Bitcoiners is protect the soul
- 23:58of Bitcoin. We need to make sure it doesn't
- 24:00get consumed by Wall Street and taken over by Wall Street and
- 24:03Wall Street will try and people are fighting against it right.
- 24:07And we got to make sure that we don't get so enamored with
- 24:10number go up that we that we've lose what's important with
- 24:14Bitcoin. We got to still keep this.
- 24:16So we got to remember that this is actually an alternative to
- 24:19the US dollar and the Fiat government Fiat currency system,
- 24:23right? And so keep building out these
- 24:26other things, keep building out layer 2 and layer 3 so we can
- 24:29use it as a totally alternative financial system and actually
- 24:32get away. I'm of the theory, and this is
- 24:34another quote that people think I'm crazy when I say this
- 24:38Bitcoin is too powerful for Wall Street and it, and I actually
- 24:41believe that it will consume Wall Street from the inside out.
- 24:44And people think that's crazy. I'm saying within 10 to 20
- 24:48years, it's going to outgrow Wall Street and basically bust
- 24:51out of, of, of Wall Street and Wall Street will eventually bend
- 24:55the knee to Bitcoin. And it's almost hard to believe
- 24:59right now. It's kind of like I said two or
- 25:01three years ago that I think MicroStrategy is going to be the
- 25:03largest company by market cap by the year 2033 or 2034.
- 25:08I still think that's very possible.
- 25:09And people just laughed at me and mocked.
- 25:11I'm like, just wait, like you don't understand like how crazy
- 25:14this is. And if you can do speculative
- 25:15arbitrage by borrowing dollars and buying Bitcoin with that and
- 25:19just growing and growing and growing and then plus have being
- 25:22riding the tails of the exponential growth of the
- 25:25Bitcoin monetary network, the the upside is almost limitless,
- 25:29especially when you compare it to limit limitless Fiat currency
- 25:32creation. So I think it's all inevitable.
- 25:35I think it's coming. I think that every company that
- 25:38doesn't have Bitcoin on its balance sheet or a Bitcoin
- 25:41reserve strategy will go to zero over time relative to Bitcoin.
- 25:45So it's like if you want to survive in the next 10 to 20
- 25:48years, you have to switch over. To me, it's very basic and, and
- 25:51again, nobody understands that so many people on on in old Wall
- 25:55Street, they think of Bitcoin as a technology stock instead of
- 25:59what it really is, which is just better money.
- 26:03Excuse me? So why is that important?
- 26:07It's because if you don't get onto this system, the rest of
- 26:13your business trends to 0 over time against Bitcoin.
- 26:17They businesses cannot keep up with the annualized rate of
- 26:21return of Bitcoin. They, they can't exist on this
- 26:23Fiat system that's collapsing all around us.
- 26:26They have to get on board. And so the longer they delay
- 26:29that situation and whether you're an individual or a family
- 26:32or a pension or an endowment or a church or a small business or
- 26:35a large business or a nation state, it's the same for
- 26:39everyone. And the sooner, and I know you
- 26:40talk about this all the time on your show, but it's the game
- 26:44theory at play. The longer it takes you to get
- 26:45on board, the further behind you're going to be in this new
- 26:48world. And why is this like why is
- 26:52that? It's because Bitcoin isn't just
- 26:54this like cool little thing like this, this neat little tech
- 26:57stock. It's literally a new monetary
- 27:01technology that's a change the world technology on par with,
- 27:06we've talked about this, the wheel, fire, electricity, indoor
- 27:10plumbing, railroads, the automobile, airplanes, personal
- 27:15computers, the Internet, right? This is the Internet of value.
- 27:18And so it's not like it's this cool little side asset.
- 27:22It's literally this new invention.
- 27:24It's kind of like if it was the year 1950 and you were a
- 27:28business and you're still trying to run your business without
- 27:31electricity. Like you, you have to comply to
- 27:34the way the world is shifting and changing or, or if you're in
- 27:37the year 2024 and you don't have an Internet strategy for your
- 27:40business, it's just ludicrous to think about.
- 27:42But I'm old enough to remember there were businesses that were
- 27:45actively fighting and mocking the Internet back in the 90s and
- 27:49the early 2000s. I used to, again, as a value
- 27:51investor, people used to just literally mock Netflix.
- 27:55They would and talk about how awesome Blockbuster is.
- 27:57They would literally mock Amazon and, and talk about how awesome
- 28:01Walmart is and how Amazon will never even come close to being
- 28:04the same size as as Walmart. And now look at, you know,
- 28:07Amazon has multitudes, yeah, multiples larger than than
- 28:11Walmart. So just like you had to get that
- 28:14sort of Internet strategy, you now have to have a Bitcoin
- 28:18strategy, a new monetary Technology Strategy or you will
- 28:21become obsolete. It's just what it is.
- 28:23And I think that's inevitable. And so even though people think
- 28:26I'm crazy, 510 years from now, we'll be talking about that and
- 28:29they'll ask me long, did you ever see it coming?
- 28:31I'm like, yes, it's it's it's going to come.
- 28:34It has to come because it's clearly better money.
- 28:37It's a better monetary network for the world.
- 28:39And if you're not on board with it, you're going to become
- 28:41obsolete. 100% and I mean it, it, it's what's fascinating to
- 28:46me about this year is how Sailor is proving that on Wall Street,
- 28:53you know, best performing stock of the year up, I think almost
- 28:57500 percent or a little bit shy of that.
- 29:00And 9 Bukela is proving that on the nation state level.
- 29:04Now, Doctor Ross, what I want to ask you about, which is the the
- 29:08Sailor strategy is fascinating. Like how is he able to do this?
- 29:14You know, like I have the conceptual understanding of like
- 29:17the mechanisms behind it, But you know, it's almost as if he's
- 29:21using the prior system, He's taking advantage of the prior
- 29:25system, which I don't think was prepared for something like
- 29:29Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin. It's, you know, and people call
- 29:33it a speculative attack on the dollar.
- 29:36Could you like describe what the mechanisms is behind it?
- 29:40And is is he putting MicroStrategy at risk by doing
- 29:44this? So the only people who think
- 29:48he's putting it at risk are people who I think don't
- 29:50understand what Bitcoin is. They think that they think
- 29:52there's a chance that Bitcoin could go to 0 or fail.
- 29:56And I, I used to think that back in like 2016 and maybe 2017 and
- 30:0018. And then after thinking about it
- 30:02and studying it for years and years and years and years, I
- 30:05realize like that's just silly. It's like saying electricity is
- 30:08going to fail or indoor plumbing is going to fail.
- 30:11Just because it's a monetary technology doesn't mean it's not
- 30:14a technology that's improving humanity.
- 30:15So, so that's premise #1 is Bitcoin going to fail?
- 30:20Absolutely not. Like 0% chance unless, you know,
- 30:23again. And, and he gets asked these
- 30:25questions all the time and I think they're so funny, like
- 30:27whoa. And, and he's like, well, I
- 30:29suppose if like a meteor struck the earth and we exploded or
- 30:33that we, you know, collided with the sun, yeah, then Bitcoin
- 30:36would probably fail, you know, but we probably have bigger
- 30:39problems on our plate if that happens.
- 30:40So. So Bitcoins not going to fail.
- 30:42So that's the one thing it was brilliant what he did.
- 30:46And, and, and I, I avoid the term speculative attack, even
- 30:50though that was popularized. I think it was Pierre Rashard
- 30:52maybe that that's coined that term or, or, or Bitstein or
- 30:54somebody, you know, way back in the day, way before my time.
- 30:58Brilliant, brilliant thought process.
- 31:00I call it a speculative arbitrage or just a carry trade.
- 31:03So like a Bitcoin carry trade, what you do is you borrow a a
- 31:08depreciating currency, which is any Fiat currency, but you can
- 31:12use the dollar. That's great.
- 31:13You could he could do this with anything.
- 31:14He doesn't have to do it in dollars.
- 31:16It wouldn't have to be the US stock system.
- 31:18It could be like Metaplanet and they're using, you know, assets
- 31:21in Japan to do the exact same thing.
- 31:24Excuse me. What he's doing is he's filling
- 31:27a need. So there was this huge need in
- 31:30Wall Street for people who wanted access to Bitcoin but
- 31:33couldn't have it. There's all these rules, right?
- 31:35It's, it's so stupid. It's all these communities of
- 31:37people who decided like, here's exactly what you can do and
- 31:40here's what you can't do. And one of the things you can't
- 31:42do is you can't buy Bitcoin. It's like, OK, well, people
- 31:44don't want to miss out on this, on these games, obviously.
- 31:48So one easy thing to do is you could, if you have a brokerage
- 31:51account and if or if you're a business, you can just buy
- 31:53MicroStrategy, the equity. OK, that's one, that's one thing
- 31:57you can do. A second thing is that traders
- 32:00love volatility, right? So people, so they love Bitcoin,
- 32:03but maybe they don't have cryptocurrency exchanges and and
- 32:06access to trading there. They want to trade in the in the
- 32:09old system, the old Wall Street system.
- 32:11So what it does is now you can create option strategies, you
- 32:14can do trading and because of its massive volatility, you can
- 32:17do all these kind of trading strategies.
- 32:18So traders love that extreme volatility.
- 32:21They've also created these double long and triple Long
- 32:23Products, things like that, which I think are crazy by the
- 32:26way, and don't don't recommend them at all.
- 32:28Like never use leverage with Bitcoin, don't use leverage with
- 32:30micro strategy. Those kind of people, the huger,
- 32:34the more important product that they've created because they
- 32:37have this Bitcoin core, this treasury of of Bitcoin assets.
- 32:42They can spin off things like convertible debt and other forms
- 32:46of debt. And so now the debt markets can
- 32:49get into Bitcoin for the first time.
- 32:50And I know you probably know this too, but the Bitcoin
- 32:53convertible debt and these bonds, they've massively
- 32:56outperformed regular bonds. So anybody who sorry.
- 33:01I mean, I'm, I'm just getting excited so.
- 33:03So, so, so imagine, right, you, you, you're some kid working for
- 33:08some stodgy old bond company, then you can only invest in
- 33:12bonds and you're like, awesome, we're going to make, you know,
- 33:144% this year, super low volatility because you got to
- 33:18have low volatility. It's all people talk about like,
- 33:21awesome, but they get Bitcoin, right?
- 33:24And so they go talk to their 70 year old boss like, hey, I think
- 33:28we should get Bitcoin because our results suck and we're
- 33:31actually losing purchasing power to inflation every year.
- 33:34And they're like, well, we can't do that.
- 33:35And So what did Sailor do? He's like, hey, I got a deal for
- 33:38you. I will give you access to
- 33:40Bitcoin. I'll give you exposure to
- 33:42Bitcoin, but with a much lower volatility.
- 33:44So if Bitcoin has like a 60 ball, we're going to take the
- 33:48ball down for you, you know, to say 10% or 15% or somewhere in
- 33:53that range and we're going to limit all your downside.
- 33:55So what Sailor is basically saying is I'll absorb all of the
- 33:58volatility are almost all of the volatility on your behalf and
- 34:02give you this much of the upside gain, even though that it the
- 34:06stock is probably going to go up to here, you'll go here, but
- 34:09with no downside risk. And to a bondholder, that's like
- 34:12a miracle. That's like the greatest product
- 34:15that you can imagine because you are you kidding me?
- 34:16I could get like a 60% return over a year or two with no
- 34:22downside risk. Yes, I'll take that all day.
- 34:25And so that's why when Sailor he, he puts these products out,
- 34:29they're not only subscribed instantly, they're
- 34:31oversubscribed by multitudes and multitudes.
- 34:34So, so he might put out like, I'm going to offer 800 million
- 34:37and like literally like that he gets offers for like 1.2 billion
- 34:41and they get oversubscribed. And I just literally think he's
- 34:44going to be doing this over and over and over and over and over
- 34:47again because the, the, the desire in the bond market and on
- 34:52Wall Street to have these types of products where you can kind
- 34:55of dial up or dial down your volatility on the back of
- 34:59Bitcoin is insatiable. And I think that we're going to
- 35:02that's that's what makes micro strategy such an amazing
- 35:06product. And I get it, I get it right.
- 35:07It's a centralized honeypot. There are downsides.
- 35:10There are huge risks to it. I still tell everybody the best
- 35:12thing to do is just own Bitcoin and cold storage, get it off
- 35:15exchanges, get it out of the traditional financial system.
- 35:18But people should be cheering him on at the same time.
- 35:22I think every single CEO, founder, CFO of any public
- 35:28company should be doing exactly what he's doing.
- 35:30I truly do. And I think if you don't do
- 35:32that, you're going to get left behind again, if you don't have
- 35:35a Bitcoin strategy, even if it's just as simple as you put a
- 35:37little, you buy a little bit, you DCA into Bitcoin with some
- 35:40of your extra cash. If you're not doing that, you're
- 35:42going to get left behind and you're going to be obsolete
- 35:44within 10 to 20 years. Yeah, I completely agree.
- 35:48And and you just blew my mind. I was, I was that was
- 35:51fascinating. Just going down the the bonds of
- 35:54now. Look, Doctor Ross, I have a
- 35:55question for you, right? And this is something that, you
- 35:58know, looking back because you know, I I I started my career,
- 36:02my career has been Bitcoin, right?
- 36:03And you know, I've been more media focused, but I understand
- 36:08and I've explained this to you many times.
- 36:09Or like I, I, I learned Bitcoin 1st and then I've had to
- 36:12backtrad to like try to understand the traditional
- 36:15financial system after. And you know, one of the things
- 36:18that I noticed this year was for the first time, you know, and
- 36:23I've held Bitcoin, it's eight years now.
- 36:24Holy cow. But you know, for the first time
- 36:27I was looking at it, I was like, should I have bought in
- 36:31MicroStrategy instead of Bitcoin?
- 36:33So that's my question to you is if you know, you get a a
- 36:37question from a client or you get a question.
- 36:39And again, this is not financial advice, just pref asterisk,
- 36:42right? But if you get a question from a
- 36:45a client or like a higher net worth individual and they say,
- 36:48you know, Doctor Ross, like, what should I do?
- 36:51Should I buy MicroStrategy? Should I buy spot Bitcoin?
- 36:54And then also, you know, as a Bitcoiner kind of puts you in
- 36:57this conundrum because you're just like, you know, I want to
- 37:00take self custody of my Bitcoin. But at the same time you're
- 37:03looking at MicroStrategy and you said, you know, theoretically I
- 37:06could have multiplied the amount of Bitcoin I had like let's say
- 37:09I would have put the equivalent of 1 Bitcoin into MicroStrategy
- 37:13in the beginning of the year. Maybe I could have got in four
- 37:16or five out of that, you know, so that's not something that's
- 37:19very popular within the Bitcoin community.
- 37:22But it is a very important question because, you know,
- 37:25you're you're pitching spot Bitcoin to, you know,
- 37:28traditional investors or whatever.
- 37:29And they're looking at this like, why should I do that?
- 37:32If I can just buy MicroStrategy, I'm comfortable within my
- 37:35Charles Schwab account. I don't have to learn, you know,
- 37:38all this technical stuff and all that stuff that we all advocate
- 37:42for. What would be your advice
- 37:44towards that person? Again, not finding this is
- 37:46theoretical financial advice. So a couple of thoughts.
- 37:50So let me say first that about two years ago, I really 2:00 to
- 37:553:00 somewhere really studied his his strategy, what he's
- 37:58doing at MicroStrategy. And I thought this is the only
- 38:02equity that I see that will outperform Bitcoin over the long
- 38:06run. I don't think anything else
- 38:07will. I don't think, I don't think
- 38:09Bitcoin miners will. Everybody was all into Bitcoin
- 38:11miners the last cycle. They're not so much this cycle,
- 38:14but they're still doing pretty well all other businesses, even
- 38:16if you, you know, whether you're a tech company, whatever kind of
- 38:20company you are, you just can't outperform Bitcoin unless, how
- 38:24could you do that through intelligent leverage?
- 38:26So I, I actually think I'm the one who coined that term and I
- 38:29think he's Michael Saylor took it from me because now he talks
- 38:32about the intelligent leverage strategy of my, of my, and
- 38:34that's great. It's an open source, you know,
- 38:36community and maybe I didn't, maybe he came up with it, but
- 38:40that I just looked ahead and thought this is the only thing
- 38:42because of this leverage. And if you shrewdly apply
- 38:45leverage, that's what a lot of hedge funds do too.
- 38:48That's how they out they can outperform the market if you
- 38:50shrewdly apply leverage and you have access to cheap leverage at
- 38:54the right times. OK, so so that's that's number
- 38:58one. Number two, everyone should own
- 39:00Bitcoin and have it in cold storage.
- 39:03Why? Because Bitcoin is an
- 39:04alternative to the collapsing Fiat system.
- 39:07So as much as I like micro strategy and I think it can
- 39:10actually even outperform Bitcoin, you don't know what's
- 39:14going to happen, right? And, and I, I hope he lives
- 39:16forever, but sailor could die in a plane crash today.
- 39:19He, he could, he could turn out he's doctor evil and he could be
- 39:23like, ha, ha, ha, I'm stealing all of this and we and we've
- 39:26duped you all right. He's he stores this at different
- 39:30places. I think Coinbase custody is one
- 39:32of them. There's other places.
- 39:33These are honeypots. It's possible somebody could get
- 39:36access to this. You could have a bad player who
- 39:38could some he could have a dude on his C-Suite in AC suite who
- 39:44who colludes with some other dudes in AC suite and be like,
- 39:47we're going to get the keys and we're going to take all this
- 39:49Bitcoin and move it to Tahiti. You know, and there's all of
- 39:52these different risks that you take on when you own
- 39:55MicroStrategy and other assets. So those things are real, right?
- 40:00And nobody believes, I mean, especially in a bull market,
- 40:02especially if you're outperforming, nobody cares.
- 40:04They'll buy it at any price. They also don't care that you're
- 40:07buying bit net. You know that it used to be on
- 40:09par with to the NAV of the Bitcoin that it held on its
- 40:12balance sheet and then it's it's gone up by multiples 3X4X5X.
- 40:18To the to the amount of Bitcoin it owns it it it has owned and
- 40:21that's kind of a market issue. And I and what happens is during
- 40:24bull markets is the is the further the bull market goes on,
- 40:27usually the greater that spread becomes at some point that
- 40:31spread closes again, right. People who own GB, this is a
- 40:34different technical issue, but people who own GBTC back in the
- 40:37last cycle learned that the hard way.
- 40:39I actually learned that the hard way because in our hedge fund
- 40:41that was about the only Bitcoin proxy I could find for my
- 40:44clients. 2021 was a really good year for Bitcoin even though it
- 40:48was subdued like we talked about earlier.
- 40:50But GBTC went from a premium to a discount to NAV to the net
- 40:54asset value. So GBTC, if I remember it, I
- 40:56think it returned 0 percent or right around it was flat in
- 41:002021. That was very painful.
- 41:02So those kind of things can happen to micro strategy.
- 41:05And that's another thing that I think about is when it's the
- 41:08flavor of the cycle. So it when it's the darling of
- 41:11the cycle, the last cycle, the darling started GBTC and then
- 41:15that deflated and then it was the Bitcoin miners, they were
- 41:17the darling of the 2021 cycle. Now it's MicroStrategy.
- 41:22What usually happens is everybody wants the darling
- 41:24right away. So that tends to peak earlier.
- 41:27So what I think is going to happen, and we've already seen
- 41:30that, right, that the MicroStrategy is crushed,
- 41:32Bitcoin returns. I think it's up to your .4 to
- 41:34500% so far this year. I think it, if I had to, if I
- 41:39had to guess, it's going to peak early and then it's going to
- 41:41kind of fizzle while Bitcoin still kind of finishes its cycle
- 41:45a little bit later. So just a guess.
- 41:47I have no insight to that other than that's usually what happens
- 41:50for the darlings of the cycle because people, everybody wants
- 41:53that and then there's no more buyers left out at some point.
- 41:56So that's a really long winded answer to say if you have no
- 42:00other alternative, yeah, go ahead and buy some micro
- 42:03strategy. You go ahead and buy the ETF if
- 42:04you want. But super critical that you
- 42:07first need to establish real Bitcoin in cold storage outside
- 42:12of the system. Because if things hit the fan or
- 42:14if the government says, hey, we're going to seize this or
- 42:17whatever, or something bad happens, if you have a Bitcoin
- 42:21proxy, if you have a Bitcoin IOU, you don't have real
- 42:24Bitcoin. I know you know that and I know
- 42:26you tell your listeners that all the time, but you might be able
- 42:29to outperform for a while. It's the same with nonsense
- 42:31proof of proof of state crypto, right?
- 42:33A lot of people get attracted by that kind of stuff.
- 42:36You may outperform Bitcoin, but you're just playing with fire
- 42:39when you do that kind of stuff. And and I think and you that's a
- 42:42whole different subject, but you're just buying nonsense at
- 42:45that point and you really run the risk of just losing it all
- 42:48and getting rug pulled. And so just be smart.
- 42:51Absolutely, and it it that was an incredible answer.
- 42:54So it was like it's a leverage play, but it's not replacing
- 42:58real Bitcoin. All right, So if if if you're
- 43:02you know, because there's some regulations, I believe like if
- 43:04you own it, if you have like an IRA or something like it, you
- 43:07can't actually like you can't have self custody Bitcoin.
- 43:11And it's what you said it it it MicroStrategy has fulfilled this
- 43:16need, right? For they want people want
- 43:19exposure to Bitcoin, but because of the regulations, because of
- 43:21the laws, they can't do it just a.
- 43:24Quick, can I give you a quick case in point?
- 43:25I run a hedge fund right? So I I my platform is
- 43:29Interactive Brokers. I can buy Bitcoin through
- 43:32Interactive Brokers on my hedge fund, but I can only buy up to
- 43:36$1,000,000 worth of Bitcoin on they have a relationship with
- 43:40Paxos. This other exchange.
- 43:43I can't put it in a cold storage.
- 43:44I can only own it there and it's only up to 1,000,000, right.
- 43:48And so that's fine if you're if you're a smaller investor, but
- 43:50when I'm running a larger fund, that's just a small portion of
- 43:53my fund. So I have to find proxies to
- 43:57invest in Bitcoin. So I have to use MicroStrategy
- 43:59and have to use ETFs if I want to have more Bitcoin exposure.
- 44:03Very frustrating. Now what?
- 44:05And one thing I wanted to say, there are places you can have
- 44:08Bitcoin in self custody like multi sig solutions, Unchained
- 44:13Capital has those. I think Swan offers those.
- 44:16I think there are multiple institutions where you can hold
- 44:19real Bitcoin in a multi sig solution in an IRA.
- 44:22So I just wanted to say that sorry and I interrupted you.
- 44:24I just wanted to give that example.
- 44:26No, no, it's it's it's fascinating and one who sets
- 44:30these laws. I'm so confused.
- 44:33Like it's like up to 1,000,000 like why?
- 44:35I don't understand. Is it like supposed to be met?
- 44:39Is it meant to like, protect the investor?
- 44:42Is that the psychology behind it?
- 44:44Yeah, I mean, I, I mean, I believe I, I believe a, a
- 44:47prominent female senator from Massachusetts is behind almost
- 44:51all of this stuff and I'm very bitter about it.
- 44:54And, and I, I've changed a lot of my own businesses practices
- 44:59and what I do because of these sorts of regulations that I've
- 45:04butted heads clashed with for a couple of years, very
- 45:07frustrating. So I think things will change
- 45:09with this next administration and and the the laws will become
- 45:13much more amenable and much more easy to comply with.
- 45:18Yeah, and, and not to get into any of the specifics or
- 45:20whatever, but it, it, it's almost as if like, you know,
- 45:23and, and I and I was talking about art, but my show
- 45:26specifically Doctor Ross, like we tried so hard to stay
- 45:32apolitical. And then it got to a point
- 45:35where, you know, I, me and Opti, of course, you know, Opti and we
- 45:40were just like, and I, and I told him I was like, dude, are
- 45:42we going to have to move to El Salvador?
- 45:44Like this isn't they forced our hand and they created like a
- 45:48situation where the opposing political parties like, oh, this
- 45:51is votes. You know, I don't think they
- 45:53actually care. They're just like, this is a
- 45:54great political opportunity for us.
- 45:56You know, we'll say the things and it's like they, they forced
- 46:01our industry to get active where I think bitcoiners inherently
- 46:05just don't care about politics. But it's like they poked our
- 46:08buttons to a point where we're just like, you know, like we
- 46:11just wanted to do something. But anyways, I, I wanted to
- 46:14pivot back to the, the micro, the, the, the micro strategy
- 46:18conversations. That was so fascinating to me.
- 46:20There is some recent news that was dropping in regards to the,
- 46:25and I love the, and I'm sure you saw it, the Sailor poking the
- 46:30buttons at the Microsoft CEO and then, you know, the shareholders
- 46:34like essentially, you know, put enough pressure on the board.
- 46:37And then my then Sailor was able to make a 3 minute video where
- 46:41he just essentially condensed all this information into a
- 46:45slideshow. But they had a vote and it was
- 46:49like, by and large, they just shut it down.
- 46:52So, you know, we know all this is inevitable as Bitcoiners, but
- 46:57why can't any, why can't everybody like, why can't other
- 47:00people see it? You know, I know that Tesla has
- 47:02Bitcoin, but why can't, why can't a company like Microsoft
- 47:06super successful, you know, makes a tremendous amount of
- 47:10money every year. They're holding, I think the
- 47:12last time I checked was $88 billion of cash or cash
- 47:16equivalents. So they're literally sitting on
- 47:18in a melting ice cube. Why can't they see what Sailor
- 47:22sees? Because they don't care.
- 47:25I mean, think about Sailor. He was desperate right?
- 47:27In 2020. He even admits that.
- 47:29And I've even said that publicly when when he's heard it is that
- 47:32he had this a crappy software business that was dying and he
- 47:35needed to do something. And he even says, I was thinking
- 47:38about just shutting it all down. And then I discovered Bitcoin.
- 47:42I was looking at like, I have these cash flows, which are
- 47:44great, but we haven't been able to grow or figure a solution out
- 47:48for years and years and years and years.
- 47:49And he has very frustrated shareholders.
- 47:51He's obviously a polymath, super intelligent guy.
- 47:54And I'm sure he was just just kicking himself like day after
- 47:57day after day. Like, what do I got to do to,
- 47:59you know, make this company grow again?
- 48:02And then you just. And that led him to Bitcoin.
- 48:05When you, when you look at the Mag 7, the Microsofts, the
- 48:08Amazon is going to be voting on this pretty soon as well.
- 48:10These other, these other companies, they're so wildly
- 48:13successful in the Fiat world that they don't need Bitcoin.
- 48:15They don't care. They're like, why would we
- 48:17disrupt the status quo? Why would we rock the boat?
- 48:20Because we're doing so great. And, and also you got to
- 48:23understand all of these businesses are run by
- 48:26committees. They have everything is done by
- 48:28the board, right? And so even if you have one or
- 48:31two people who get Bitcoin, you have 8 to 20 people who don't
- 48:34get Bitcoin and think it's a hoax still and they think it's a
- 48:36scam. It just takes time, right?
- 48:39So you got to get these younger people in who get it or the few
- 48:42older people who get it to, to effect change.
- 48:45Michael Saylor could do it because he was the founder and
- 48:48CEO. He's like, hey, I'm going to do
- 48:49this. I've decided and here we go.
- 48:51And I have, you know, a majority voting rights.
- 48:54So nobody can stop me. If you don't like it, you can
- 48:56leave. He gave that offer to people way
- 48:58back in the day and some people did take him up on that.
- 49:01So I just think that's what's going to happen.
- 49:03And it's again, it's sort of what we talked about earlier.
- 49:06It's not until these businesses get desperate that they realize
- 49:09they need Bitcoin and they need that annualized rate of return
- 49:13on their balance sheet till they till they realize like, Hey, you
- 49:16know, we're, we're trying to do, you know, build this product
- 49:19line, but it's, it only has an IRR of like 20% or 15% or 10% in
- 49:26like, should we really be doing this?
- 49:28What if we just put some Bitcoin on our balance sheet instead?
- 49:31Or at least, you know, maybe split it up half and half?
- 49:34So one of the things that I'm sort of proud of are well, two
- 49:36things related to what you said before I left Twitter, I made a
- 49:39plea to to my followers and said, if you own shares of these
- 49:44traditional stock market companies, these public
- 49:46companies put shareholder proposals in there to get
- 49:49Bitcoin on the balance sheet. We got to start, we, we have all
- 49:53of this and we know the truth, right?
- 49:55So start spreading that and start forcing the issue because
- 49:58as a shareholder you still have that power to bring up these
- 50:02issues. So that made a lot of news with
- 50:05Microsoft and ended up, you know, so Sailor got to give his
- 50:08little 3 minute pitch. I'm proud to say I was one of
- 50:11the votes or I, my fund actually owns Microsoft.
- 50:14We voted in favor of it. It lost.
- 50:16It only got .55% of the vote. So, so you know, 99.45% said no.
- 50:23I was part of the .55% that said yes.
- 50:27And people are like, how can you own Microsoft?
- 50:29It's a Fiat company. And I'm like, I know, but I
- 50:32started my fund. It was a total Fiat fund from
- 50:34the beginning. It was a value fund that
- 50:36invested in tech, technology and healthcare stocks.
- 50:38And we, we, we have come into Bitcoin and now we're like a
- 50:42massively Bitcoin centric fund, but we still have a lot of these
- 50:45older tech companies and things. And I still want to affect
- 50:48change from within, right? So I, I also own Amazon and our
- 50:52fund. I'm going to be voting in favor
- 50:53of that too. We're going to lose by a massive
- 50:55margin, but I guarantee, guarantee that over the years
- 50:58we'll start to win. And one by one these companies,
- 51:01somebody is going to figure it out, right?
- 51:03Maybe it's Tim Cook at Apple, who knows.
- 51:05It's somebody somewhere who will have a lot of power who will
- 51:08say, you know what, we need to get on a Bitcoin standard or at
- 51:11least put a little bit of Bitcoin on our on our balance
- 51:13sheet or we're going to fall too far behind.
- 51:15So I'm I know it's going to happen.
- 51:17I think by the end of the decade, a lot more companies are
- 51:20going to do it. We're all excited about the fact
- 51:22that it's not just sailor anymore, right?
- 51:24It's the now it's similar scientific marathon Riot are
- 51:28doing it to Bitcoin miners. Dylan Leclair over at Metaplan
- 51:31is doing that over in Japan. I love it.
- 51:33I love it all. It's just the beginning though,
- 51:36right? I mean, it's literally going
- 51:37from like 0 to one. That's what's going to drive
- 51:40this next cycle though. So that's why I think that's how
- 51:43we get to say 475,000 or somewhere between 200,000 and a
- 51:47million. And then we fizzle again when
- 51:49the liquidity drains out of the system.
- 51:51But the next cycle we're going to go from, we went from zero to
- 51:54one this cycle. We're going to go from 1:00 to
- 51:555:00 or one to 10% the next cycle.
- 51:58And that's what's really going to be driving the next wave in
- 52:01the next cycle. So I'm very excited about that
- 52:03as well. I 100% agree with you.
- 52:05I think that, you know, if, because I see it from like a,
- 52:11you know, and, and not to mention Tesla, because a lot of
- 52:14people slightly, but Tesla actually owns like it's like
- 52:1610,000 Bitcoin, like they're not doing the micro strategy
- 52:18strategy, but they he has. And it's not only Tesla, it's
- 52:22SpaceX too, right, which is really interesting.
- 52:26But you're the way that I would say it is.
- 52:28If you're not, if you don't have Bitcoin on your on your balance
- 52:31sheet, you are at a competitive disadvantage to companies that
- 52:36do. And the reason I'm saying this
- 52:38is obviously Michael Sailors proving it.
- 52:40But you know, Doctor Ross, you've known me for a while now
- 52:44and somehow I made managed to make a like my hobby into a
- 52:49podcast, into a small media company.
- 52:51I have no idea what, how, what happened, but one of the things
- 52:54that we've applied it's simply is we have a Bitcoin like our
- 52:59treasury, at least half. I can't do full because I have
- 53:02to make payroll every month. But you know, at least half or
- 53:05more than like 5060% is in Bitcoin and it's your runway
- 53:11just keeps getting longer. It's, it's a literal cheat code.
- 53:16I can't, I can't emphasize that enough.
- 53:18Like if you're a business and you don't have a Bitcoin
- 53:21treasury, you have no idea what you're missing.
- 53:24And I think it obviously it applies to people on an
- 53:27individual level as well, right? If you're on a Bitcoin standard,
- 53:31but I think no one really saw it, you know, the, the, the, it
- 53:35really became popular, you know, is your, is your, it's not only
- 53:39are you on a Bitcoin standard, is your business on a Bitcoin
- 53:42standard that really started to become popular relatively
- 53:46recently, but it is such a cheat code like, and it does.
- 53:50You don't even have to have a Bitcoin business.
- 53:52It's just any business. If you are on a Bitcoin
- 53:55standard, you're, you're at a competitive advantage compared
- 53:58to everyone else that's not on a Bitcoin standard.
- 54:02And also your, your runway, your treasury is just going to keep
- 54:05expanding, you know, over time. So, and and then I guess my
- 54:10question to you, Doctor Ross is, is that just because of of I, I
- 54:14don't the correct word is not deflationary, but is that just
- 54:17because Bitcoin just increases in purchasing power over time?
- 54:22Is it as simple as that? All right, it's a decentralized
- 54:25secure neutral energy money. That's how I describe it.
- 54:29It like those terms and I choose them carefully neutral when I
- 54:33say that basically it's a fixed supply, obviously, right.
- 54:36So to and Jeff Booth talks about this all the time.
- 54:38So it captures the deflationary forces that technology.
- 54:43So humanity, human progress is deflationary.
- 54:46Deflationary games are captured in Bitcoin.
- 54:50And so the two things, and it's just, this is just like
- 54:54literally alien. We're speaking a different
- 54:56language to people in the Fiat system.
- 54:58They can't even imagine this because we grew up in this
- 55:00inflationary world, right? This Fiat world where everything
- 55:03gets more expensive, the packages get smaller, the amount
- 55:07of food gets smaller and quality decreases on the Fiat system.
- 55:12And that's what we're all used to.
- 55:13You get less and less and less for more and more and more every
- 55:16year. It's crazy, it's criminal and
- 55:18it's theft by the So we all know that, right?
- 55:20We don't have to talk about that.
- 55:21What is Bitcoin? It's, it's literally what, what
- 55:24does it do? It, it, it means that prices go
- 55:27down year after year on average, yes, every 3rd or every fourth
- 55:33year they go up, but then they go down again and over time they
- 55:35go down South. Overtime prices go down.
- 55:38Overtime quality improves. Every bitcoiner I've I've ever
- 55:42known, and I've known a lot of Bitcoiners, including myself,
- 55:44we've all, as we've gotten more and more on a Bitcoin standard,
- 55:48we've experienced life getting cheaper, quality improving.
- 55:54And so when I tell people who are in in so I'm a physician,
- 55:56right? You guys know that I have
- 55:58doctors talk to me all the time, like, well, should we put it on
- 56:01our balance sheet? And I'm like, do you want your
- 56:03medical practice? The do you want the cost of your
- 56:06goods and services to get cheaper and the quality to
- 56:10improve? Like, well, yeah, I'm like, so
- 56:13put Bitcoin on your balance sheet Like, well, you can't, I'm
- 56:16like, you can do that. I'm like, like you keep, you
- 56:18keep like Nico, you know, you run a business, you have a
- 56:20payroll, but you usually have a little extra money.
- 56:23You, you know, you don't ever go all the way down to 0 in your
- 56:25bank account, put 10% of it into Bitcoin and just start doing
- 56:28that. And then as and that will grow.
- 56:30And then as you, your, you know, comfort level with Bitcoin
- 56:34increases, you can increase that to 20 and then to 30 and then to
- 56:3750, you know, and that's what it happens to every individual.
- 56:40And then it happens to every business and every business that
- 56:43does that it, life gets cheaper and quality improves.
- 56:47And so I'm so excited about this for healthcare, cause healthcare
- 56:50in the US is super frustrating for doctors.
- 56:53We're, we hate it. The system is broken.
- 56:55It's run by administrators and pharma companies and insurance
- 56:59agents and, and they all get in our grill all the time and tell
- 57:02us what we can and can't do. And it's super frustrating and
- 57:05patients hate it because they're like the doctor said I needed
- 57:08this, but insurance just declined it, you know, and, and
- 57:12it's, it's all of this stuff. And, and it's not just
- 57:14healthcare that's broken, by the way, the education system is
- 57:16broken, The military is broken. All of these systems have been
- 57:20taken over by this crappy Fiat system.
- 57:23And the government's got their fingers and everything, right?
- 57:26And you can look at charts like, so going back to healthcare, the
- 57:28administration staff of, of, of healthcare has gone like this
- 57:32and the doctors has gone like this, right?
- 57:34And, and, and as the administration goes up here,
- 57:37people are more and more unhappy.
- 57:39The doctors and patients aren't happy.
- 57:41Same thing in finance. I shut down my RIA this year,
- 57:43which is very hard and it was a hard decision, but I'm super
- 57:46happy I did it had I like 120 clients that I that I had to let
- 57:50go of because the regulators were just driving me nuts.
- 57:54I, I was butting heads all the time by people who literally sit
- 57:58in an office who don't know how to invest, forcing me to the
- 58:02comply to their rules and how to invest safely for my clients.
- 58:05And it just drove me nuts And I'm like, I'm out.
- 58:07I can't take this anymore. OK, so I'm, I'm sorry, I'm going
- 58:11on a little tangent. All Bitcoin does is make life
- 58:13cheaper and it makes quality improve for all of humanity.
- 58:17And so if you want that for your life, then you should own
- 58:19Bitcoin. If you want it for your family,
- 58:21you should own Bitcoin. I'm a Christian.
- 58:23If you want it for your church, you should own Bitcoin.
- 58:25If you want it for your pension or your endowment.
- 58:28If your university is struggling right now, you should own
- 58:31Bitcoin in your endowment or your pension or just in your
- 58:33savings things account. If you're a business and
- 58:36especially if you're a physician and you run a private physician
- 58:39practice and there are a lot of people who follow me who do
- 58:41that, put Bitcoin on your balance sheet.
- 58:43You will soon over the over 10, probably within five years, but
- 58:47over probably 10 years, you'll start to have better services.
- 58:50You'll all have more purchasing power, meaning you'll make more
- 58:53money. You will be able to provide
- 58:55cheaper, better, cheaper and better equipment.
- 58:58Like right I, I'm a radiologist. You can get the best MRI scans,
- 59:01the best CT scans, the best equipment for your patients
- 59:04because you're making so much more on the Bitcoin standard.
- 59:08And you can actually charge less on a Bitcoin standard for your
- 59:11patients. So people will love you, you'll
- 59:13be super happy, Everyone will be happier.
- 59:16It literally is better money for a better world.
- 59:18And it's so simple, but nobody does it because everybody's too
- 59:22scared because they don't want to disrupt the status quo.
- 59:24So I'm like, be bold. Take a chance, like trust
- 59:29yourself and your intuition and start doing that with yourself
- 59:32and with your family and with your business and, and then you
- 59:35can thank me 10 years from now or thank Negros.
- 59:38Absolutely. I mean, it's, it's, it's, it's a
- 59:41cheat code. It's a cheat code.
- 59:43You know, it's, it's, it's and it's so we're so the world is so
- 59:48nihilistic because they've just been conditioned to live in the
- 59:52Fiat system. And despite all of that, the
- 59:55free market still works, right? Despite all of that, you know,
- 59:58people are able to put businesses together despite, you
- 1:00:02know, all these disadvantages. And then Bitcoin comes in and
- 1:00:05you're and and it's, it's, it's like almost too good to be true,
- 1:00:10right? But all it is, it's just, you
- 1:00:13know, and I, I love the way that Jeff Jeff Booth puts it.
- 1:00:17He's like, look, this is the way that.
- 1:00:20Prices should be This is the way that the market should function.
- 1:00:24You know it is. It is unreasonable to think that
- 1:00:28you know, for whatever reason, on on Saturdays and Sundays, you
- 1:00:32can't buy whatever stock you want.
- 1:00:34Like, the market just shuts down if the volatility is too big.
- 1:00:37There's a circuit breaker. And then in regards to Bitcoin,
- 1:00:41it's like, you know, it's actually properly reflecting the
- 1:00:46improvements in innovation and the improvements in
- 1:00:48productivity. And he makes the case that it's
- 1:00:51like the world is naturally deflationary and Bitcoin is the
- 1:00:54only thing that is accurately portraying that because
- 1:00:59everything else is so manipulated that it, it's, it's
- 1:01:03it, it, it makes it seem like life is supposed to be getting
- 1:01:06more expensive. Where why should it be getting
- 1:01:08more expensive? And, you know, and I, the way
- 1:01:11that I'm seeing it, Doctor Ross is like my generation.
- 1:01:15So I'm a millennial and Jen's years, like we really got the
- 1:01:19short end of the sick with 2008, 2009.
- 1:01:22And somehow you're looking at it.
- 1:01:24If it wasn't for Bitcoin, you know, like I, I would have less
- 1:01:28opportunities than my parents. I, I wouldn't have the ability
- 1:01:32to purchase a house the way they did.
- 1:01:34I wouldn't have like the job opportunities.
- 1:01:36But the world on paper is richer.
- 1:01:40It's much richer. So what is going on there?
- 1:01:43If you're on a Bitcoin standard? I love, you know, I love, I love
- 1:01:47this one. The first time I heard it.
- 1:01:48It's like the American dream isn't dead.
- 1:01:50You're just using the wrong unit of account, you know, So you
- 1:01:55know, it, it's, it's definitely a cheat code.
- 1:01:58But anyways, we are, we are getting to the top of the hour.
- 1:02:01And I do want to give you one last opportunity, Doctor Ross,
- 1:02:05you know, to the audience, we haven't talked in a while.
- 1:02:08What are some last words of wisdom that you have for
- 1:02:12everybody heading into what we anticipate is going to be the
- 1:02:16year of the parabola? Everyone's really excited.
- 1:02:20What would those words of wisdom be?
- 1:02:24Oh man, OK, I'll try to. I'll try to be concise, but let
- 1:02:27me think. So you talked about Bitcoin
- 1:02:29being a cheat code. I totally agree with that.
- 1:02:31One thing I want to say to that or to qualify is there's there's
- 1:02:35a certain personality that gets freaked out when they hear that
- 1:02:37term because they're like, I don't want to cheat.
- 1:02:40That sounds bad. It sounds ominous, right?
- 1:02:42OK, so just so people understand, you're not cheating
- 1:02:44if you use it. Bitcoin is totally
- 1:02:46permissionless. You don't have to ask permission
- 1:02:49to use it. It's an opt in system.
- 1:02:50It's optional, unlike government Fiat where you have to use it,
- 1:02:54right? You can decide to use it.
- 1:02:56And that's one of the things that makes Bitcoin beautiful.
- 1:02:59So it's it's it, but, and to Nico's point, it is a cheat code
- 1:03:02for a better life. If you want your life to get
- 1:03:04cheaper and you want quality to improve, then get yourself on a
- 1:03:08Bitcoin standard, even if that means just getting off of 0 and
- 1:03:12just owning a few Satoshi's like it, it, it, that's how it all
- 1:03:15starts. The second thing is, and I, I
- 1:03:18have to credit Jeff Booth for this is I get asked all the time
- 1:03:21and it's because I'm a fund manager to, to make price
- 1:03:24predictions in dollar terms. And we all get excited about the
- 1:03:28bull markets and we all get excited about the exponential
- 1:03:30move higher that we're all expecting.
- 1:03:32Try not to focus on that though, right?
- 1:03:34Like think about Bitcoin as prices go down.
- 1:03:37Technology I, I show all the time.
- 1:03:39I still do this over on Nostril where I show every month an
- 1:03:42updated page from the Fred, the the Saint Louis Federal Reserve.
- 1:03:46They have a page that says buying eggs with Bitcoin.
- 1:03:48Look, you can look it up yourself, go Google it and it
- 1:03:52shows the price of eggs in dollars and then right below it,
- 1:03:55it shows the price of eggs in Bitcoin since January of 2015.
- 1:04:00It is fascinating to look at and I love it that they have it on
- 1:04:03there because they originally put it on there to show that
- 1:04:06Bitcoin is too volatile and you shouldn't use it.
- 1:04:09Look how much better it is on in dollar terms.
- 1:04:11But what what that chart shows, and I've started showing it in
- 1:04:14five year increments, so rolling five year periods over the last
- 1:04:17five years, the price of eggs in dollar terms has gone up about 2
- 1:04:211/2 times, so about 150%. I think it's a little higher
- 1:04:25than that actually. And, and in Bitcoin terms, it's
- 1:04:28actually been cut in half. It's a little more than cut in
- 1:04:30half. So you're paying less than half
- 1:04:32for eggs than you were five years ago if you live on a
- 1:04:34Bitcoin standard and you're paying 2 1/2 times more if you
- 1:04:37have dollars. So think about Bitcoin as prices
- 1:04:42go down and quality improves technology, don't get too
- 1:04:46excited. You're going to see people
- 1:04:48getting making all this money and they're going to talk about
- 1:04:50trading Bitcoin. But I would just really
- 1:04:52encourage you to think of it as the world's greatest savings
- 1:04:54technology, right? The only reason we have these
- 1:04:57big, huge increases in price are because of these liquidity
- 1:04:59waves. When the waves come in, just
- 1:05:01like a wave comes, it's super powerful, but then it passes you
- 1:05:05and then it goes down again. And the price, we're going to
- 1:05:07have a bear market after that. So yeah, I don't, I don't like
- 1:05:09it when people get disenfranchised because they
- 1:05:11aped in, they got, you know, they followed, they followed in
- 1:05:14AT400K and then now Bitcoin fell all the way back down to 100
- 1:05:18gig. And so have a longer term
- 1:05:20perspective in mind. I, I can, you know, I can't make
- 1:05:23guarantees, but I'm very confident that 10 years from now
- 1:05:26the price of Bitcoin will be at least $1,000,000 and probably
- 1:05:29more, you know, per Bitcoin. So think about pricing your life
- 1:05:33in Bitcoin, think about having a better life.
- 1:05:35Think about how can I capture the games that humanity is all
- 1:05:39this human progress is making life better and making life
- 1:05:43cheaper and, and making quality improve.
- 1:05:45You can capture that by owning Bitcoin.
- 1:05:47So it's just so much bigger than a, than a trade and, and start
- 1:05:52thinking about that way and start trying to live on a
- 1:05:54Bitcoin standard And you're, you're, you'll literally start
- 1:05:57noticing an improvement in your life a minimum of four years
- 1:06:01and, and, and probably sooner. Love it.
- 1:06:04I completely agree Doctor Ross, always a pleasure to have you on
- 1:06:08the show. Really appreciate it.
- 1:06:11Now you have left at Twitter, which now is called X.
- 1:06:15So where can people find you and stay up to date with what you're
- 1:06:21doing and what you're thinking and what you're working on?
- 1:06:23Yeah, so I'm, I'm intentionally being more reclusive now, so
- 1:06:27staying out of the, the spotlight a little bit.
- 1:06:30I'm on Noster a little bit. I'm actually not on there that
- 1:06:33much, but I'm Doctor Jeff on Noster and that's really it.
- 1:06:37I run my hedge fund and I, I keep a low profile.
- 1:06:41And so, you know, you should follow, if you want to follow
- 1:06:44me, follow Nico instead and follow Simply Bitcoin and you'll
- 1:06:46be much happier. You'll get a lot more content.
- 1:06:49Really appreciate it, Doctor Ross.
- 1:06:50Very kind of you. Awesome.