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NFC West Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast part of the
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today,
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: our annual division by division NFL preview episodes march on
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: as we go through every team across the AFC and
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: the NFC on the path the NFL Week one. As always,
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: I can't walk on this journey alone. Let me bring
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: in my co host, my companion, Mike and Padre my
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: bff professional better sign in hunter Head.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: Oh so I'm in shad you like this. I'm twenty
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: four hours away from going to probably my last bachelor
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: party of my lifetime.
• 0:49
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Two things, One probably not your last. Two two give
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: me the details.
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: Well, it's probably the last because I only have true
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: I probably only have truly five to six real friends left.
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: You know, when you hit your thirties, you probably didn't
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: go through this because you're from a different area. But
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: I don't know your thirties you drop off just because
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: everyone else kids, wives and kids. So this is my
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: last like true childhood friend I've known since he was born.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: He's getting married. We're going down to Dewey Beach in Delaware,
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: and you'll like this. His party theme is Fred Durst
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: from Lymbiscuit. So I'll be wearing the jeans, shorts, the
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: white T shirt with the backwards red hat, which is
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: just I don't know if you've seen these ears. They
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: are not meant to be worn underneath the hat. So
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: it's probably the first out I've worn since Little League
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: Baseball thirty years ago. So yeah, look looking forward to
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: Dewey Beach for the weekend with the boys. But he's
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: done well. Like I just joke, I have six people
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: like and again the person parties. Chad's probably in that
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: six of like people I consider good friends. Uh, he's
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: got like thirty guys coming to these two beach houses
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: down that Dewey Beach. That's how many close friends he has.
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: So it's gonna be pretty a.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: I love that for him. B. I didn't realize that
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: guys were doing bachelor party themes where everyone had to
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: dress up. I thought that's something only that the ladies did.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: So please send pictures of your Fred Durst inspired.
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: Have you ever heard of a world of T shirts?
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: Or no world of T shirts?
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: All?
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: Right, So he's he's like this, you're a TikTok guy.
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: I'm not. This is like a TikTok guy. And I
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: did another bachelor party last year and we all dressed
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: up as this World of T Shirts guy, and basically
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: his whole thing is telling people he's richer than them
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: and how and ask them how they got in here,
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: like it's this weird voice. So there was twenty of
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: us all dressed as him, and it was we got
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: thrown out about seven different bars. People could not stand
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: us being this World of T Shirts guys. So I'm
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: excited to be Fred Durst of Lumbiscuit for the weekend.
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: It's gonna be good to.
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: Tell you something. Let me tell you something.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Number One, the only person who should dress up at
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: the bachelor party in a costume is the bachelor. For example,
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: on my bachelor party, we were in Vegas and we
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: were all getting ready to go out for dinner, and
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: one of my guys said to me, dude, great, you
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: look great tonight. Fantastic. I'm like, thanks, man, He goes,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: this is what you're wearing. I told you to. This
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: story breaks out the polyester elvis jumpsuit with the flared
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: bottoms and an elvis wig and gold glasses, and that
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: is what I wore the entire night. Out in Vegas
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: and it was the greatest night of my entire life
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: because everywhere you go, even if you're dressed as Elvis
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: and you're a very bad impersonator, you are treated like
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: the King. No lines, no covers, free everything. Everyone wants
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: to take their picture with you. Everyone is happy to
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: see you. It is freaking glory. Yes, number one. Number two.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: I once one of the guys who organized this. To
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: get him back. We went to New Orleans, got him
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: pretty wasted during the day. At about six o'clock, I
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: said to him, guy, we got to get going, and
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: I handed him a King of Marti Gras outfit and
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: I had hired a brass band from Tulane University music students.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: We went down to Bourbon Street, which was, you know,
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: where our hotel was, and at six o'clock on a
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: Saturday night, he had to march down Bourbon Street as
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: the King of Marti Gras in the King of Marti
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: Gras outfit, with the staff and everything, while the band
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: played when the Saints go marching in behind him. It's
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: not a group thing. One person needs to get embarrassed
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: at the bachelor party.
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: Now times have changed, bro Bachelor, We're not. We're not
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: there to be assholest to and we're there to support.
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: And I told you it's depressor. This is my last
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: friend that's getting married unless my buddies get divorced. It's
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: my last bachelor There's nothing.
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: I asked Tolly about it. This guy had so much fun.
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: I had so much fun.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: It's thirty freaking years later and we still laugh about these.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: By the way, on all the trips that we go
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: on every single year with all my high school buddies
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: and their wives, we all still laugh about it.
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: I'm excited for you to be fred Durst and Olympis.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Get olymp biscuits this weekend, right, yeah, right, you get that.
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you're good.
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: Right. I hope it's not your last bachelor party.
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: List when we gets divorced, it is. I'm not making
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: any new friends, brother, I got I do a one
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: hundred phone calls. It feels like a day with all
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: these different people. I got no room for new friends.
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: So Chad, Chad, unless you're getting divorced, one of my
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: buddies getting divorced, No more bachelor parties unless it's my own.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: Well, listen, if you're bored, you can come up and
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: stay with me and Stacy because we're going to be
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: empty nesters soon. Or I heard this weekend. People don't
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: like to call it empty nesters. They like to call
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: it free birds.
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: I like that better. I liked that better.
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: All right, let's get to it.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: I'm glad we're I want you to have a good
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: time this weekend in Delaware. Listen, we're going to talk
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: about the NFC West today. Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals, LA Rams,
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: San Francisco forty nine ers.
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: Listen.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: I know we've been talking about the Niners and the
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: Rams since the season ended. Niners one of the first
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: bets I made for futures. I know you did too,
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: But as the off season has gone on, you've started
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: like the Rams a little bit more. So we're going
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: to talk about the Rams in a sec. But like
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: I did with Pete Carroll, I want to give you
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: some Kyle Shanahan stats for context. Twenty eighteen, Kyle Shanahan
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: went four and twelve twenty nineteen, thirteen and three twenty twenty,
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  Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan went six and ten twenty twenty one, ten
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  Speaker 1: and seven twenty twenty four, Kyle Shanahan went six and
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  Speaker 1: eleven twenty twenty five. Who knows the point is the
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: ten and a half is undervaluing.
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: The By the way, I didn't give you their odds today.
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  Speaker 1: Division odds plus one fifty, Conference plus six fifty Super
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  Speaker 1: Bowl twenty to one. We got him closer to twenty
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: five win total ten and a half. I think this
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: win total is valuing the Niners below market, definitely below
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: where they had been years prior. Whenever this guy has
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: a down year, it's because of massive amounts of injuries,
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: and he comes back so strong the next year and
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: years when his team has been healthy. He's never had
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: fewer than ten wins in a season in his career. Right,
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: So Ayuk? Will he be healthy?
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: Purty?
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: Will he be more comfortable with his full complement of
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: players around him? McCaffrey, will he be healthy? Trent Williams
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: obviously not holding out? Will he be in better conditioning? Like,
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: this is a team and I'm not even getting to
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: the schedule yet that after I did my research, I
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: started to get a lot higher on.
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: Talk to me.
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we both made really really early bets on this
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: team to win the Super Bowl odds, And I told
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: you at that time that I had already bet the
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: Rams before The Rams were literally the first bet I
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: made as soon as the season ended. I think they
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: were twenty eight to one. You know this, this this
• 8:29
  Speaker 2: four nine ers team, It just lines up for what
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: we do here as better as of the football. As
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: we look for these last place teams from the year
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: before and the team that had horrible injuries, bad luck,
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: all that noise. They are that team. They have the
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: they were fourth place in their division. They had a
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: ton of injuries in this division. And you go through
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: and it's like, okay, they get all these guys back,
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: and they're getting what me and you agreed to be
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: one of the best defensive corners of solid back to
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  Speaker 2: man this defense. They they went out and got some
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: big boys for that defensive line. They've they've gotten. They
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: were much bigger than they were last year on the
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: defensive line. I think that's obvious, gonna help the secondary
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: end the linebacker position. You know, that's all fun and good.
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  Speaker 2: I told you. My hesitation with them is how have
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: they drafted these last couple of years Because they've had
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: to have paid their quarterback now, so that means there's
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: no longer the rookie deal bullshit. Right, It's no longer
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: they can just go out and get a twenty five
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: thirty million dollar free agent just added to that defense
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: like they could before. Right, They've had to pay party now,
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: so things are gonna be a little different. And the
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: only reason I love this team like I do is
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: because of their schedule. Like that really is it where I,
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: you know, as the human element, I wanted to be
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: down on this team coming into it because it's like,
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: I have too many questions about the way they've drafted lately.
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: But when you go through their schedule and you know,
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: we don't know the deal is like Yuk might not
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: be back till mid October, November, Like no one knows
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: the trajectory of his injury. He's not practicing with them yet, right,
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: he's still rehabbing. I'm still getting trying to his body. Right,
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: that's a big deal because it's gone from that Super
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: Bowl run they had. They had Ayuk and Debo playing
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: at really high levels and Deebo's gone, which to me
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: was the right move. They're putting a lot on you know,
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: Ricky Year and you know he could take that years
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: to jump, as wide receivers do. But it's that's a
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: big question mark. We don't know how he's going to
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: react to being the main focus in this offense. And
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: you know, I don't really have the questions about Purty. Like,
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: to me, Purty showed me a lot last year in
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: his playing style. Did you have in your top ten
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: this year?
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: I did.
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: I didn't just because I obviously have other guys above him,
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: But like he's right there for me, like Prety a
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: ton of respect. I think there's a ton of talent.
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: Obviously he's you know, getting McCaffrey back is just the
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: ultimate game changer for this team. Like that, that to
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: me is everything. So that's the hesitation, the fear with
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: me with this team. It's like that's the only thing
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: I'm having paus on Divisional Lodge Chat plus one fifty.
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: That to me is right. They should be the favor
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: in this division. They're the best team in this division
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: when it's all said and done. They have arguably the
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: most talent in this division. But again it's all about
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: how they've drafted the beer's house can put together. So
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: uh not gonna bet them division a lot. It's not
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: gonna bet them conference. I bet in them Super Bowl
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: because it's like we just said, we've already bet it.
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: It's moved too much for me to bet it again.
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: The value is just not there. Win total though, I
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: like that ten and a half. I think the books
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: are kind of showing their ass here, Like everyone in
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: the general public is like, whoa, that's high for a
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: forty nine ers seen that was in the last place
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: last year. And even the ones that are like, well
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: they were hurt, they're gonna be better, they still don't
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: see that many people giving them over ten wins where
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: you know, again it's all based off schedule. I have
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: them at twelve wins, so I have them a win
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: and a half above what the books are projecting. So yeah,
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: my model really likes them. I gotta go with it
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: because I look at this record and I think to myself, Okay,
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: let's go by game by game and try to find
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: these wins for them, and you can find them. I
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: know that's stupid because we don't really know what these
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: he's gonna be like. But when you do break it
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: down game by game and look at these different teams
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: they match up with, it just all breaks right from
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: their away games, their home games, their schedule wise like
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: on their short weeks, long weeks, the rested weeks. It's
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: just a really favorable season for this furnasing. You already
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: talked about it too, the seesawing of Shanahan coach teams,
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: their down years, high up, high ceiling years, really low years.
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: It's just he really does well based off of the
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: year before. They got the fourth place schedule, they really
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: bounce back the following season. So even if they have
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: a dipping talent from that Super Bowl team, I still
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: see them being eleven win team twelve win teams, So yeah,
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: give me that over ten and a half win total.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: Chad Easiest schedule in two different categories. Easiest schedule according
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: to twenty twenty four win percentages aggregate of the teams
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: they are playing. Easiest schedule of the according to twenty
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: twenty five Vegas win totals. Open the season, we see
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: Attle on the road, then they get the Saints on
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: the road, Then they get the Cardinals at home, then
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: they get the Jags at home. Also this year they
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: get Giants, Browns, Panthers, Titans, Colts. They are getting the
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: last place schedule and that just has a recipe for
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: a huge amount of wins. I don't like. I really
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: wanted to walk back from this team, but the addition
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: of Sala to me, elevates their defense even where they.
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: Might have some holes and we don't know if they
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: have holes.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Like to your point, they spent a lot of draft
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: capital on the defense, and we don't know yet if
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: that's going to play out. It kind of has to,
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: given the way that they've had to pay players for
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: this team to be successful.
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: But I would feel.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: Better and I do feel better betting on the Niners
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: with Robert Sala back as the defensive coordinator. Don't forget
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: that Jets defense was really good when he was the
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: coach there and it fell off a cliff when he left,
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: So clearly this is something that he is incredibly good at.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: We've talked about over the course of the offseason, like
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: the most important additions. To me, Robert Sala was one
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: of the most important additions to any team during the
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: off season.
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: So I like it.
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: I like it. You just talked about their best regular
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: season record. If you want to go out there and
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: find it, there's a couple eleven oh ones, twelve to
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: ones on fort nine ers to be the best regular
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: season record So to me, that's good value on a
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: team that, you know, like the Bills right now are
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: favorite of plus three fifty. We talked about the Bills
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: of a very easy schedule. That makes sense, seem could
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: be said with this foreig nineers team, Why are they
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: not plus four hundred plus five hundred right, because once
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: again public perception, they're just not buying it like professional
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: betters are. So yeah, that's a nice little value bet
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: twelve to one eleven o one best record forty nine Ers.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: By the way, you know, we talked about betting the
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: Niners at twenty five to one. I also bet the
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: Bills Niners matchup in the Super Bowl at forty five
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: to one.
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: I like that.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: I had completely forgotten about it. This morning, I was
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: checking my accounts to see what bets I had made
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: in the offseason because I had forgotten, like what number
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: did I get the Niners at? What number did I
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: get the Packers at? I think I got what number
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: did I get the Rams at? And I saw this,
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: and then I saw three other bets which I had
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: forgotten making. One was Cowboys plus two forty in Week one,
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: Cowboys plus seven in Week one, and I pulled the trigger.
• 15:55
  Speaker 3: I don't if you remember this. We were talking about
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: the Bills.
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: And the Panthers like in the middle of the off season,
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: and I bet the Panthers plus seven against the Bills
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: like in Week eight. I think they're thinking was, we're
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: going to believe the Panthers are going to be much
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: better and.
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: That number is going to come down.
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: That is crazy.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: So I went for it, all right, Rams together contender
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: plus one seventy five in the Division, ten to one
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: in the Conference, twenty two to one to win the
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl win total nine and a half.
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: I feel like I see it less with the Rams
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: than you do.
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: I do have some numbers to sort of support ascendency,
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: but you love the Rams.
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: I think I like the Rams.
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's pretty simple. It's my job is trying to
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: find people super Bowl winners. And when I go through
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: all the teams that ifc obviously Eagles are the number one,
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: number two, it's just all lines up for this RAMS
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: team because it's a team that does not matter if
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: they are home or away, like they could be the seventh.
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: To me, it would not matter for them, Like they're
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: just that talented across the board and the biggest question
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: with them will always be have they drafted to fill
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: that defense out, because that's gonna be their weakness. It's
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: not gonna be the offense, right, that's Sean mcvay's bread
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: and butters into that offense. And even games they struggle,
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: they eventually find a way and find a way to
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: attack different defenses. And you know the reason I don't
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: love them for this division, like I just you know,
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: the numbers move so much, and I'm obviously super Bowl
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: odds it's twenty like you said, twenty two to one.
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: A lot of books in the twenty to one. I
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: know that's so they're out in the action app I
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: gave them not a twenty eighth to one, and that
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: was obviously before they made the move to goet Devonte Adams,
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: and that's They've had other stuff that the professionals and
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: now come in and move this number down. But what
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: I do not get is a nine and a half
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: like that nine and a half win total? Is that
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: just because Stafford's old and has a bad back and
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: seems like he gets hurt every season, and you know
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: last year is playing their injuries and kind of fell
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: off a little bit towards the end of this season.
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: You know that's all fair, but you also go back
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: to last season and that's when they hit their stride
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: in the season. I mean, they really were bad to
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: start the season. I think there were three and six
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: once again to start a year, and maybe they ended
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: the season eight and two. It's just that's just what
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: they've done now the last two seasons, like they've started
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: out slow and the end of the season really well.
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: They won the division last year. I don't think they
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: get away with that this year with the forty nine ers.
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: I think the four nits would be so good throughout
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: the season that they're not gonna be able to steal
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: the division like they did last year into the season
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: right because that the division was right there for the
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: Seahawks and Arizona as well, and both of them just
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: fell apart towards the end of the season where the
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: Rams did not. So, you know, looking at this team
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: and the way they play with Stafford, you know, the
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: DeVante Adams piece to this, to me is just such
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: a major and not talked about addition to a team
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: that you know, Puka, if he's healthy, to me, he's
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: a top five, top six wide receiver in this league,
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: like his range to be able to catch the ball,
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: as athleticism, his blocking as well, just one of the
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: best blockers, which makes one of their run games so dominant.
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: Last year, their run game was not that good. Like
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: people forget that. You know, Williams was a little banged
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: up as well. They went out drafted running back this
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: upcoming season just because of that. They were like, Okay,
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: we're not messing around with this again. We need to
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: make sure our run game is on point. And that's
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: a big deal when you have someone like Stafford. But
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: when you add in Devanta Adams as well hes Puka
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: and DeVonta Adams, and even if you want to say
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: Devonte is over the hill, which we could all agree on,
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: he's still one of the best route running receivers and
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: especially in the red zone, which is where they struggled
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: last year, was scoring in the red zone. This Rams team.
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: So that's why I give them such a major bump here.
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: You know, once again, I'm not going to beat the
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: divisional odds. I was hoping this would be a little better.
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: I can be patient here. Even though their start of
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: the season isn't you know, brutal right, they have not yeah,
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: and they go Houston, Tennessee Eagles, Colts, forty nine Ers,
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: Ravens Jacksonville. Then they have a bye week. So this
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: is another team that I might just wait til the
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: bye week to take a divisional odds bet on them.
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: See if they start, you know, three and four get
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: way better odds, especially if the forty ninros have a
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: hot start. That to me is where the value would
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: be better in the divisionally, but win total you can
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: bet that now if you wont nine and a half,
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: you know, I easily see this team get into ten wins.
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: My model is a little hesitant about They only had
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: him at ten and a half, which I was shocked by,
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: But that could just be because they are playing a first
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: place schedule, right they won their division. They're gonna have
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: to play play the Eaglesy're gonna have to play the Bucks,
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: are gonna have to play Detroit. That's always gonna make
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: her a season a little bit tougher for win totals
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: when you're using a model to base off wins. So
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: to me, I would take the win total your I
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: have no fear in it. Sean McVay ten and seven
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: at worse to me feels like that's the low bar,
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: even if he gets hurt once again. Stafford. I know
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: he's not that good of a quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, but
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: he's a veteran that knows how to run this type
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: of offense, right. He's not the type of guy that's
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: gonna burn you, especially when he use those type of
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: weapons they outside. So I think it's a little safety proof.
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: The fact they have a veteran presence like that in
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: Jimmy back up Stafford and ten ten wins feels like
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: it's not crazy to bet on at this point. So yeah,
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: we're starting off at the top fourty nine ers over
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: win total. Same with the Rams. I like the over
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: for them as well, a nine and a half.
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: By the way, I take issue with one thing you said.
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: You said the early part of their schedule isn't brutal,
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: and then I immediately agreed, Uh, and I'm wrong, And
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: I made a note of this.
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: Oh I've meant to say, is brutal? Is bru I agree?
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: I thought you said it isn't brutal.
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: I might it is. I meant to say, it is
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: my best because.
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: For their first six games Texans Eagles in Philly Niners
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: Ravens in Baltimore.
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, So, like I said, I wouldn't bet that until
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: the visional odds. Till after that by a week, I
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: think you'll get better better odds.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: So you you said the magic word here, which is
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: is their defense, which is full of young great players
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: going to continue to be on the upswing Before their
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: Week six by last year, they had the worst pass
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: defense in the NFL. They allowed the highest EPA expected
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: points at it and the most yards per attempt. Post
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: by Jared Vers moves into the lineup full time as
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: a starter, they ranked eighth best in EPA, ninth best
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: in YPA, and posted the league's highest disruption rate. Nice
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: job the throw the damn ball sub stack, which is fantastic.
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: I highly recommend people check it out. But can that
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: improvement continue? Can they continue to be as aggressive? Can
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: they continue to be as physical and dynamic? Great defensive
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: line right Kobe Turner, Brandon Fisk, Jared Vers, like I mentioned,
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: like that is a really good defensive line. Will they
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: continue to develop and excel? That's the question. And is
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: Stafford going to be a right?
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's the fear, is like Stafford Drey coming
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: to camp. He's already got back spasms and back issues,
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: Like he's already resting, missing practice to start there, which
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: again not a big deal because he's a veteran, but
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: it's like, Okay, this is this is what we're dealing with.
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: We're betting a guy like Stafford, who you know, his
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: body got beat up in Detroit all those years. It's
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: it was gonna catch up to him at some point.
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: So you know last year played through a bunch of injuries.
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: You saw that kind of happen with him, and I
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: think his best game is against the Bills, and then
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: after that game, he just was not right for about
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: four or five weeks and they really relied on what
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: Chad just talked about, which was that defense. So yeah,
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: if their defense shows up for them, this could be
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: a really dominant team. If they regress, man, they could
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: finish easily third or fourth in this division. Like this
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: is going to be a tough division.
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: Uh, in my TikTok feed. You know I love TikTok.
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: I know you're against it, but I recently got a
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: old school NFL films Steve Sable introducing four uninterrupted minutes
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: of audio and video at the end of a game
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: and Matthew Stafford's rookie season where he gets leveled with
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: like ten seconds left and he's in agony. He's writhing
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: on the field, his shoulder, his arm is dangling because
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: his shoulder is separated. He's got to go to the sideline.
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: He can't even handle it. If someone touches his shoulder pad,
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: they have a chance to win the game. But he
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: had to leave the field and clearly cannot come back
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: on the field, and the opposing team calls a time out,
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: so he gets about thirty seconds of a blow and
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: that allows him to come back onto the field for
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: the final play with one arm. He throws the game
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: winning touchdown, and that is the beginning of the Matthew
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: Stafford legend and why his teammates love him so much
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: because he's such fucking badass.
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: But it just.
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: Reminds you what a terrible fucking game like he got leveled.
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: He shouldn't even have an arm after what happened to him,
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: and he got out there without even shots Like you
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: could see, he's on the sideline the whole time, gets
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: out there and just fucking throws a dime. Stafford takes
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: the snap, sets in the pocket, rolls left Stafford looking
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: for somewhere.
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: To go, sets it glow and trying to be on
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: a hand potat.
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: In the upside and he's down on the field and
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: it's not getting up.
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I remember. The best is just the sounds you
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: make sure he's just like I can't guys, I can't
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: feel my arm all about right now, but it came
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: out back into the left close.
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: How dare you try to diminish the toughness of Matthew
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: Stafford and make him sound like he is whining in it?
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: Just funny sounds. He makes funny sounds.
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: Dude, right, Not right for the quarterback that you have
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: in the top ten. Perennially Cardinals plus four fifty twenty
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: six to one to win the Conference super Bowl fifty
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: to one win total eight and a half.
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: So this is what shocked me.
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: And I mentioned this the other day when we were
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: talking about the Chiefs. I was going through Kyler Murray's
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: career because like one of the things I was reading
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: up on talked about how he you know, he entered
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: his knee I think in twenty twenty one and that
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: last year maybe twenty two, I can't remember which but
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: last year was sort of his best year since early
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: part of twenty one when he was having an MVP
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: caliber season, And in my head, Kyler Murray just still
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: feels like a guy who's a year removed from being
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: a rookie because we keep waiting for him to live
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: up to his potential. And then I realized, as I said,
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: he started one fewer year years than Patrick Mahomes and
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: the difference in how we think and I know, different coaching,
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: different franchises, different talent, et cetera, et cetera, But.
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: Kyler Murray.
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: The fact that we still talk about Kyler Murray as
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: a guy who, if he can put it together, who
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: were counting on living up to his potential.
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: It feels like the same conversation every year. So what
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: are we going to get?
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: Like?
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: Is he going to be the guy who when he
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: had Cliff Kingsbury and was great in early twenty to
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: twenty one, who last year started to show flashes of
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: being a little bit smarter in the pocket, taking fewer sacks,
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: having this team rally around him. Best year certainly since
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: that early twenty twenty one see's early part of twenty
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: twenty one. The only question right like that's it is
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: Kyler Murray the guy or not?
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the joke with Kylier Murray's he's always a year away.
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: He's a year away from being a year away.
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: It's yeah, that's by the way, Is that the joke?
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: I didn't even know that.
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean there's again, there's always quarterbacks like him, where.
• 27:59
  Speaker 3: That joke isn't on TikTok again.
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: I don't don't have TikTok. I'm a grown man. You're
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: the TikTok guy.
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: All right, okay, grown man. I look forward to seeing
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: your pictures from the Limp Biscuit telethon this weekend.
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: You're you're jealous. Sounds like you're jealous all for that nookie.
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: I look at Kyler Murray and I always see the potential.
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: But it's just I think we're all just sick of
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: the inconsistency where it's like, you know, one week he
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: can look really good and then you know the word.
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: The game that pissed him off the most last year
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: that we should have seen coming was Washington Commanders. I
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: don't I don't know if it was in Arizona, but
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: it might have been in Arizona. They went down there
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: and beat this shit of this Arizona team, like literally
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: embarrassed them. And I should have known that. I was like, Okay,
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: this is this is who Kyler Murray is. He's just
• 28:49
  Speaker 2: an inconsistent guy that when he plays against a good
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: quarterback or if this is a good team, he'll never
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: love them. He can beat up bad teams where he
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: can steal a game every now and then, but when
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: he has a good team with momentum against him, he'll
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: never beat that type of team. And you know, last year,
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: I just felt like it was all lined up for
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: them to steal this division. Like there were so many
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: ways they could have stole this division. That an easy schedule.
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: You know, he didn't trust Marvin Harris Junior, which you
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: know I get, but even McBride, like I don't think
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: I think McBride had some crazy streak where he had
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: like the most catches in the NFL without a touchdown,
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: like all just a bunch of weird little things like
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: that where yes, we can say his offensive line is
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: not that good and that defense isn't that good, and
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: you know, Buddha Baker's all they have on the defensive side.
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: And that's why that's why this team is struggles. There
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: always going to be a couple of draft pieces way
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: and it's never Coler's fault. But when you really dive
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: into it, it's like there's games that are winnable for them,
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: and Kyler doesn't love up to those moments. And like
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: you said, we're in the seventh year here, we know
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: he has the talent. He's all a talent around him.
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: Like could he shock the world and steal this division
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: plus four fifty? Yeah, if you want to go out
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: there and bet that, go for it. But to me,
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: my model actually has I'm only eight wins. I don't
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: even have an eight wins when I really run through
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: it and I'm like, I can't see them again to
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: eight wins. Just how hard this division is and they're
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: out of conference games are so you know eight and
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: a half. If you want to bet that over, go
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: for it. I'm on the under, not one of my
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: best bets, Like it's just half a game to the
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: under I have, But I just I can't get there
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: this team. But I'm excited to see what the future
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: is because you have Morvin, you have you know McBride,
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: one of the better tight ends. You know, James Connor
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: might be a little a little bit on the way
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: out right, his best days might behind him, but he's
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: still a talented running back. Like they have all these
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: weapons offensively. Can't Kyler be a leader? Can he be
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: what you just talking about? Can he be the MVP
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: level that we know he has athleticism? But can he
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: be consistent? Because you know, he is one of those
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: guys from my money where it's like I can't. I
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: want people to have their own lives outside of football.
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: But it's like, does he care more about being a streamer?
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: Does he care more about playing video games or live
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: streaming his life on YouTube and his daily life week
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: the week? Because for me, the best quarterbacks in football,
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: they have no lives. All they care about is football.
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: Like Mahomes I watch just like you. I watch it
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: QB life. He lives a pretty boring life, like he
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: just practice work home. Jalen Hurts is a robot, that's
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: all he does. Josh Allen, That's why I came to
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: watch Hard Knocks. Everything I heard about Josh Allen is Yeah,
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: he has fun the offseason, but he is a boring
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: robot during the season. He just does the same thing
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: all day. Every day. It's just all about football and commitment.
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: So can Kyler nick that next step, Chad, that's the
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: big question. And I don't think me and either want
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: to put our money into that. Like I don't believe
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: enough to invest buy money into him for the next
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: six months. So I'm just I'm very down on Kyler
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: in this team right now, and it's for a good reason.
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: It's just a really tough division. He's never taken that's
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: next step. Has shown us. They deserve that respect that
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: these other quarterbacks have.
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't even know why you would say to
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: people if you want to bet the over eight and
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: a half, Like, there's nothing about this team, especially in
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: this division, that makes me feel like, oh yeah, I
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: don't want to invest in this team's overall success.
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: They have never proven it.
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: They had some flat last year, but in the end
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: they had their classic Cardinals games and classic Kyler Murray games.
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of games, a lot of teams. We've
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: talked about them already, talk about the Saints under, talk
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: about the Panthers over, talk about the Titans over right,
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: like talk about the Raiders over. There's been a lot
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: of games, a lot of teams that we can talk
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: about betting on the Cardinals.
• 32:27
  Speaker 3: Just feel like they got a cults vibe, no read,
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: middle of the road, no value.
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: No and just again it's just it's why would we
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: be excited about this team. It's hard to get excited
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: about them when Kyler's just disappointed. People like you said,
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: it's crazy to think how long he's been in the
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: league now and this is his seventh season. He's just
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: he's done nothing like no memorable. Sure, that crazy play
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: on that two point conversion. Maybe it was a touchdown
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: where he ran around for thirty seconds. Yes, that was memorable.
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: Him having that hell Mary pass, Yeah that was memorable,
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: But no plas success. He's done nothing to change our
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: organization around. You know, like Kurt Warner Carson Palmer did
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: more on their stops in Arizona than he has, and
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: he's got way more athletic talent than those guys. So
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: it's just very disappointed what College Murray's career has been
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: so far.
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: All Right, well, it's not clear. I think we're down
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: on the Cardinals. The only time I might be more
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: down on.
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: The Seattle Seahawks plus six point.
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: Fifty conference is thirty five to one Super Bowl sixty
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: to one win total light and a half, and that
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: just feels high to me. I feel like Mike McDonald
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: is getting the benefit of the doubt, and I feel
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: like there's some public perception benefit for Sam Donald.
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: I'm not buying it. I'm just telling you right.
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: Now, Like, there is such a massive difference between Sam
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: Donald playing behind a Vikings offensive line and having Kevin
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: O'Connell whisper in his ear, and a offensive system in
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: Seattle that doesn't have Kevin O'Connell and also has what
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: may be the worst offensive line in football, Like that's
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: not even really debatable. They didn't get better during the offseason,
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: and they've invested this money and handed the ball to
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: a quarterback who remember his downfall began with the Jets
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: when he was getting pressure and said he was seeing ghosts.
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: Last year, he was good because he wasn't getting pressure.
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: So what had the Seahawks done to make sure that
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: Sam Darnold is not going.
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: To be pressured? He was pressured in the playoffs, got
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: crushed in the playoffs.
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: So I worry that they've handled a lot of money
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: in the ball to a guy who isn't going to
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: have any protection. I would be buying the under on
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks eight and a half.
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's an interesting team where they've really revamped this
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: whole offense. And you know, I remember some jackass two
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: years ago said they potentially the three best wide receiver
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: trio and all the christ Yeah, ever, who the.
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: Fuck would say that? What kind of what kind of dickhead?
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: K DK Metcalf gone, Tyler Lockett gone. So they've gotten
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: rid of two of their studs, and you know they're
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: the biggest question to me is what you just talked about,
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: like got I think this went to reflects when you
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: just talk about their head coach that he's one of
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: the best defensive lines in all football. So you're gonna
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: respect that their defense is gonna be, you know, top five,
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: top ten potentially, Like they should really get better a
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: year two of front of his defensive scheme, and you
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: know we saw last year they did improve his ear
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: win along defensively. But you just nailed it, like that
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: fact that they brought in Sam Darnold and they knew
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: they have a bottom three, bottom five offensive line. It's criminal,
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: it's it's his, it's his kryptonite. Like we saw when
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: that offensive line got banged up on the Vikings. He
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: struggled against Detroit, he struggled against the Rams, and that's
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: what it was. It was the pressure in his face
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: get him off his spot. And you know, the thing
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: that impressed me the most we talked about last year with
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: Sam Donald was how clutch he was in the fourth
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: quarter last year and these one score games when everyone
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: was getting tight, he kept winning for the Vikings, which
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: was the biggest shocking part of that season last year,
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: the Vikings. But like you said, he had one of
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: the best offensive minds in his year at the time,
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: and he doesn't have that same benefit like Kevin O'Connell.
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: You know, not saying he makes these quarterbacks, but heah,
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: obviously he's a life length and he helps them improve greatly.
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: He's leaving that. So the one best season we've ever
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: seen from Sam under the toolage of a great offensive mind.
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: That's gone under a good you know, great weapons, i
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: should say, and Jefferson Addison at the wide receiver position
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: that's gone, and you've taken away his offensive line. How
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: can you be positive about this team? Like again, Colin Cowherd,
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: we know his love affair with Sam Donald, I get
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: why he would love the Seahawks. Anyone else outside that fandom,
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: there's nothing there to grab onto that. It's like, Okay,
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: I am really excited and I really believe in this
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: team where he's got to ride this on their best
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: weapons at all offense, and that offensive line is not improved.
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: They did not address the biggest weakness of this team.
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: So you know, to me, we always talk about coaching,
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: maybe there's gonna be some improvement, maybe being two down
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: on them, and then maybe I need to dive more
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: into them this preseason and watch more tape on their
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: offensive line and really break down see if they've improved
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: any way. But what I've seen in just two weeks
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: or a week and a half is it feels like
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: same old, But it's hard to know because their defense
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: is just that much better than our offense, where the
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: defense feels like every day or winning the day by
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: the beat writers. So they're just another team like the Cardinals.
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: I'm just down on because I'm so high on the
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: rams of the forty nine ers. How do we not
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: take this win total under another team though that you know,
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: just like Cardinals, I have my model at them at eight.
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: It's doing the same thing year the Seahawks has them
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: right at eight. I think as a humans, I dive
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: into it more. I don't think the computer realizes how
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: big of a downgraate it is going from that Vikings
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: team to the Seattle team. For Sam Donald, so I
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: would put them at seven and a half, seven wins,
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: So I liked that under an eight and a half.
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: I'm just looking at their schedule right now. They open
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: with the Niners at home, then they.
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: Go to steel to the Steelers.
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: They do, get the Saints at home after that, and
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: then they get the Cardinals on the road. They got
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: the Bucks, they got the Texans, they got the Commanders,
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: they got the Rams, they got the Vikings. Like, it's
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: not a terrible schedule, but it's not the easiest schedule.
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: No, it's not the forty nine ers schedule. That's their yeah,
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: and the forty I have more talent, So that's what
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: It's just tough for Seattle, where like I see the future,
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: I see what they're doing there defensively, but offensively, it
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: feels like we're at least two years away, Like they
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: have to address offensive line. Like Darnold, we know he
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: has a talent. We know he can be clutch, but
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: we know his weakness. It's the offensive line. So it
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: feels like this is the type of team that they'll
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: struggle this year and then we'll hear at the whole offseason.
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: We know what I need to do, so you don't
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: need to address the offensive line, and that's hopefully what
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: they'll do next year because they kind of wasted this
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: year not attacking offense. And again, it's hard to do,
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: but there are pieces out there, right there were guys
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: available from different teams, all offensive line wise, and that
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: they didn't they didn't go out to attack this position.
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's gonna be tough Seattle. They're just
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I feel I would hate to be
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: a fan of their team right now because it feels
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: like they're just like one of these midle level teams
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: that you don't really believe they'll ever win a Super Bowl,
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: but when every bad enough to get the one or
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: two top picks. So it's tough right now for Seattle,
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: where you know Sam Donal might be your answer for
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: the next two three years, whether you like it or not.
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: All Right, so let's run through this. My favorite bets
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: in the Division. Niners Super Bowl odds twenty to one,
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: not my favorite number. We got it at a better number.
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: Niners over ten and a half, Seahawks under eight and
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: a half.
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: What are yours?
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll definitely put win total for forty nine ers.
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: My number one bet for this division ten ten and
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: a half. Love that over and then right behind it
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: love the Rams obviously over nine and a half. Yeah,
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: if you're if you're gonna make me take one of
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: these unders, which one I'd like more? I'll join in
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: the Seattle one. I just I think they have a
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: much much lower floor than this Cardinals team, which is
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: it could go really bad for this this Seattle team
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: pretty quick if they just have no offensive output. So yeah,
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: I'll join you on that under eight and a half
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: on that Seattle team.
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: All Right, we have gone through this week the AFC
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: and NFC West. We will return with our next episode
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: Tuesday on the Action Network YouTube page, where we will
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: cover our next NFL division preview. Download us on Spotify,
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