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Felix Prehn - 3 More Days Until it Begins… + Stock Market News 04 November 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: We're live still in our somewhat temporary setup, but we are fortified by Winston, which must be a good thing.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: He'll give us some strength and wisdom as we get through this tough time.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: But, in all seriousness, it is, of course, a huge week, not just because of the best informed investor going into this week or four weeks, and therefore Winston will break down the wisdom for you here.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: That's about to unfold.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: So what have we got?
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: We've got support resistance lines on the big indices.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: What's going to happen?
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: We've also got lots of stuff, lots of data points to go through, lots of important things that have just happened.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: So stick around, smash the you-know-what.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: And, as I tweeted earlier, do we still say that or do we X now?
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Whatever happens today, we'll keep building wealth so that our future generations never have to work, they never have to do something they don't want to do, they never have to go to a job they don't want to go to and can just be and do whatever they want to do.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: And I think with that in mind, literally look at this chart here.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: You've got Republicans in office in red and Democrats in blue.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: Does it make one bleeding difference?
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Actually no, for the market it really does not make a difference.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: There's no difference between a Republican or Democrat in the White House.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: So that's the good news, right?
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: You can get terribly head of heels and upset about who's going to run the country, or allegedly run the country or pretend to run the country, but the markets will be just fine and if we focus on making money, we'll be just fine.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: I appreciate there are really important things out there.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: There is Peanut the Skrill, which is a horrible story, a horrible story.
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: The people who do that.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: I mean they really deserve to be rounded up, not literally, obviously, but yeah, just like what happens to humanity, right?
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Anyway, we shall move on beyond squirrels, because we've got a bunch of good reasons to be very, very optimistic and cheerful, like this guy here.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: We literally have the best months coming up.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: November to January here are by far the best months of the market, especially in election cycles, presidential elections.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: October, which is usually a pretty decent month, gets dragged into November because everyone's a bit freaked out about the election, and therefore November, december and January tend to be very, very, very, very shiny.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: So we're excited about that.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: We are equally excited about making money out of it.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: How do we make money out of it by spotting those great big juicy breakouts.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: I just want to make sure you guys are with me.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Live here.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Share screen please.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: Oh, sorry about that, okay, okay, okay, that's where it's good to check, right, we shall do that.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's you just have to imagine, right?
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: It's a bit like being blind, isn't it?
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: This was the presidential election chart, just so you see it again.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: The market just up, almost in a straight line, tempered by the occasional crash like 2008, 2000.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: That here was 1929, 1930.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: But most of these little blips are barely noticeable in the long run.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: So a dollar invested at 1901 would be worth 96,000 noticeable, right, in the long run.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: So a dollar invested at 1901 would be worth 96,000 now, right, pretty extraordinary stuff.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: So get investing that dollar today, because your children and children's children will then have $96,000 down the road.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: This was the chart for November to.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: January is the finest period of the year.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: I was watching stories about peanut.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, what is that all about?
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Literally?
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: Are there not bigger problems in this world than people keeping squirrels?
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: I remember I was in London last time.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: I was in London beginning of the summer.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: I walked through Kensington Gardens beautiful park.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: I got to the other side and there's a wall and there's a squirrel on the top of the wall big bushy squirrel, and he had literally a nut in his mouth and he dropped the nut onto the pavement.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: And as he drops that nut he kind of looks at me in sort of panic as he's thinking getting down there next to traffic.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: It's dangerous, but I really want the nut back right.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: So I took the nut and I put it back over the wall on the other side and he picked up the nut, stopped, looked around, looked at me like he was saying thank you and then squirreled up the nearest tree.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: They're lovely little creatures.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: They're just like mini Winstons basically Horrible.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: To think that people would kill a bloody squirrel for no real reason, right, can you at least put it in a sanctuary or something?
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: I mean somebody would have taken the squirrel.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Anyway, money is the one thing that shelters you from most madness.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: To be honest, I think that's sort of my lesson.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: So check out the masterclass.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: Learn how we spot those big juicy breakouts.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: Somebody wrote this.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: I saw this in my inbox this morning saying Chris wrote this.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: I did sign up to the masterclass and learned valuable lessons, thank you.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Thank you, chris, for sharing that with us.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: So if you want to learn that too the link is down below felixfriendsorg slash get free.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: Of course you want to do that after this incredibly insightful video, otherwise you might miss Winston's real secret to what's going on here in the market.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: And if you're wondering who Winston is, it's where are we?
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: This chap here, this one here, very, very alert, as you can tell.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: So links also down below Check it out.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: Now I was a little worried about the Apple earnings, I must say, and we have a video coming out on the whole big tech earnings, sort of a summary, and I would highly recommend you watch that because it's kind of what runs the market.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: But then I actually saw the sheer enormity that is Apple share buybacks $100 billion.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: They're buying back.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: You know that's more than the market cap of Intel.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: They could literally have just bought Intel and it's a money-making machine.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: It will continue to be.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: People will continue to use iPhones and use more Apple services and therefore Apple will continue to be buying back at these insane levels and that's ultimately.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: Apple is a buyback stock now.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: It's like a dividend stock basically, without the tax implications.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: It still looks pretty good.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Now there are more reasons to be bullish and this chart probably deserves explanation.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: The we have expected profit growth by Wall Street's Muppets, and then we have the realized profit growth.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: Generally speaking, wall Street is a bunch of nitwits who are on antidepressants or not enough antidepressants.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Possibly.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Say, for 2023, they were expecting 0, 0, 1% earnings per share growth and we got 4%, 8%, 7% and so on.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: So there's always this gap.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: Wall Street tends to do better than the analysts forecast, which is kind of weird.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: And so far for this quarter, well, wall Street was expecting 3% profit growth and so far for this quarter, we got 6%.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: So it's a pretty low bar and it's pretty easy to beat.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: And again, that makes me optimistic because that's kind of all we need.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: We just need to beat expectations for the market to keep going up and up and up, and remember this in terms of seasonality.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: We are here right now and that means it's very likely, at least by historical standards, that we go up a beautiful 4% by the end of the year.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: I just want to make sure I'm sharing my screen, still so struggling with a one screen.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: Damn those contractors.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: We also have this week literally a rate cut coming.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: 98.1% of the market is expecting a rate cut.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: It's sort of like an election in Iraq under Saddam Hussein, or maybe in California.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, we're going to get a rate cut.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: That'll be good for stocks.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: Tech stocks will rejoice.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: We do, of course, want to know what their guidance is, and so on.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: The press conference is important, but the world is expecting a rate cut and we're going to get that rate cut.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: We also have Massey room to buy.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: The V is missing there, quite clearly, massey.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: Did you eat the V, winston?
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: I think Winston probably ate the V.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: There he is.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: He's pretty sleepy.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: He did a lovely little hike today with a bunch of old friends furry ones, not human ones and we are literally at the and it's a bit confusing if you're not a statistician but we're at the 98th percentile and excuse me for writing with a mouse of kind of the overall fund exposure to the market, which means we have huge potential for them to buy more, and that's, of course, very, very important.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: Now we're about to be joined by my chief financial analyst here, which is important.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Do you have some important wisdom and insight on the market this week?
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: Toledo, she does, but she is unwilling to share unless you pay her a high fee.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: So that's why we put out the masterclass because that way you get information for free.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: You know, cats, pickle creatures, anyway, the week ahead is literally monstrously important.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: So Tuesday we get ISM services, pmi, which is about as important as the presidential election I'm kidding, of course.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Thursday we get the Fed rate decision.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: We get Papa Powell talking and by then we should know who's the president, probably, unless it ends up in the courts and we get core inflation rate.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: We get PPI, which is producer inflation, and then we get retail sales to round up the week.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: So it could all be absolutely glorious or it could all be absolutely horrid.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: We'll let the data decide.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: But yeah, big week, big juicy, bouncy week.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: So learn how to spot those breakouts.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: You might need it more than ever after this week.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: And watch my masterclass.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: I literally teach you on how you spot those monstrous breakouts before they actually materialize, because that is important.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: Now let's have a couple of looks at Tesla's upset, at Winston's retainer.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: Winston a girl?
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: No, winston is a Winston.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Churchill wasn't a girl, was he?
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: I thought he was a very manly man.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: So no, winston is definitely a boy, unless he now identifies as a squirrel in sympathy with Peanut, do you Winston?
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: Probably, poor Peanut.