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Best Bets Today | Championship Rematch: UConn vs Michigan?! | NBA, NHL, CBB & CFB Picks Friday · Toadstool Sports

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: People, they just love to criticize, man. That's all they
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: want to do. All they do is come into the comments.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: It's real easy to come into the comments after the
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: fact and be like, you were wrong and bad mouth everything. Yeah, okay, well,
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: why don't you give me your own picks before the
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: games happen? See if you can do better than I
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: do long-term. I'm a winner long-term. I put in the
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: effort here. I'm giving you all my picks for free.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: These are winning picks long-term. If you don't understand that,
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: then I don't know what to tell you. That's not
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: my issue. Yeah, hindsight is 20-20, man. You can come in,
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: you can criticize my plays all you want, but if
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: you're going to fade me, you're going to wind up losing, guaranteed, long-term. Yeah,
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: you can't beat me at this. And, of course, nobody
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: comes in and comments on the winning picks that I
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: give out. Of course not. Why would they do that?
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: That's too positive for them. You know what I mean?
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Why would anybody thank me? Why would anybody show any
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: appreciation for actually doing the homework here, giving out long-term
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: winning sides and whatever?
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: No.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: No, of course nobody's going to do that. They just
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: like to criticize. They just like to come in, comment,
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: you were wrong on this shit. Yeah, no shit. Obviously
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: I was. How about you, uh, Yeah, how about you
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: make all these calls before... Give out your own picks
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: beforehand and see if they do better than mine. That's
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: what I got to say. You know, fuck you, fuck off.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Get the negativity out of my comments. Or don't, whatever,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: because you're just boosting my channel anyway. So, whatever. Yeah,
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: it was not a good day on the show yesterday, obviously. Hockey, well,
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: we went 1-3-1. We got one push in hockey with
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: the St. Louis Blues making a comeback. And teasing me,
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: of course. They were losing by two goals late. They
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: tied it, sent it into overtime, and then lost. If
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: that was a winner, yeah, then we would have been
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: a little bit closer to a break-even on the show yesterday. Vancouver,
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, that was just dead immediately. They had a
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: terrible first period. I don't know what else to tell you. Yeah, like,
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: they gave up three goals on the first, like, ten
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: shots probably. You're not going to win when you do that.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: It just is what it is. I thought it was
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: a great spot to fade Winnipeg. Sometimes these don't hit, man.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: I guess I shouldn't have added Mercyhurst in college basketball,
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: though the money definitely agreed with me on that one.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: If you look at the market read and whatever. Yeah,
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know what else to say about it.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: It looked like it was a lower scoring game. It
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: looked like they were kind of hanging around in there.
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: It looked like they might be able to make that
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: run late when the game's a little bit out of
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: reach just to get within the number, but that did
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: not work out. Jacksonville was the only winner with that
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: basketball play, which should have been my only basketball play.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: Got to tread a little bit carefully still early on.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: The NFL game, yeah, it is what it is. There
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: were chances for Baltimore to cover that, and all they
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: did was turn the ball over. If you were going
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: to tell me that Jacksonville had only 20 points Going
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: into the fourth quarter in that game, I would have
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: felt pretty good about the plus 10. You know what
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: I mean? It happens that the Ravens cannot do anything
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: on offense anymore at this point. Yeah. This Ravens team,
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: they ruined me as far as handicapping the last couple
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: of years. This team, personnel-wise, should be playing way better
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: than they are. Yeah, I mean, I get it. They
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: had a rookie quarterback in there. One thing I forgot
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: to mention on the show yesterday, the thing that slipped
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: my mind that I was trying to think of was
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: having the game plan set for the starter that they
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: knew was going to start that time, Fagnano, rather than throw...
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Maybe I did say that yesterday. Rather than throwing him
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: into the fire with a game plan that wasn't designed
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: for him like they did in the first game, this
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: game was going to have a game plan designed for him,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: so it should have gone better, and You know, if
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Baltimore isn't minus three in turnovers, they're probably going to
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: cover that huge spread. You know, you're probably going to
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: be looking at more of like a 26 to 16,
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: or 26 to 17 type of final maybe. It would
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: have been right around that number at least. They got outplayed,
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: but the final score was still misleading. Just the turnovers
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: are just ridiculous. I have nothing else to say, you know.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: the negativity is ridiculous I mean it's really easy to
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: just be an anonymous clown come in and you know
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: just criticize after the fact cool that's what everybody does
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: you're a loser dude um you know what I mean
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: like get a life uh again I'm doing the work
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: I'm giving you the winning plays we're gonna get back
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: on the right track here I got a bunch of
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: plays for today so Hopefully we're going to have a
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: winning day, get back on the right track. That's obviously
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: what we're going to try to do after the break,
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: or after the intro, I should say.
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: You got a.
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: Slip in your palm and a hole.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: In your chest Black coffee on the felt, man.
• 5:32
  Speaker 4: You look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: in your hand Now you stare at the chips like
• 5:40
  Speaker 4: they made you this man But don't you go quiet,
• 5:44
  Speaker 4: don't you fade from the floor Your name still means
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: something to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby.
• 5:54
  Speaker 5: Look at me now Hold on, hold on Not tonight,
• 6:05
  Speaker 5: not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull you
• 6:14
  Speaker 5: out That fella fights hard But he don't get the
• 6:22
  Speaker 5: crown Hold on, hold on.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: Stay with me now. What's up, everybody? It's Toad back
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: with you. Toadstool Sports Friday, November 6th. There's a lot here.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: College basketball, a lot to break down here. Friday's usually
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: a lighter college basketball day, but not at the beginning
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: of the season, although I think Saturday, therefore, will be
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: lighter than it usually is. Saturday's usually very heavy. We'll
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: see how I want to do that, because obviously I
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: have to do the college football show for tomorrow, tonight. Basketball,
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: maybe I will incorporate that into the morning show tomorrow,
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: because tomorrow, other than that, will be primarily football. hockey
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: so probably that's what I'll do because I think it's
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: a big board but it's not like the typical massive
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Saturday boards where I'll start shifting to do a college
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: basketball Saturday night once college football is over for the
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: regular season at least but yeah let's do this we're
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: gonna do hockey first here we have a few hockey
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: games here I do have a play in this first
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: game so right away I'm giving you a play in
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: Columbus and Buffalo and I like Buffalo here, but they're
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: pretty heavily priced, so we need to find a way
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: to do it. You could do the split bet thing
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: like I do, although I think that's better doing that
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: in an underdog situation. So I'm going to switch it up,
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: and we're going to take Buffalo to win in regulation.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: That's what this is at minus 105. It's a three-way
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: line like in soccer. So yes, if the game goes
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: into overtime, your bet will lose. But this is to
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: get the price down, get it cheaper. I think Buffalo
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: should be able to get this done here in this one,
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: especially because I think this game's going to be a
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: little bit higher scoring. It's a 6.5 total. Columbus does get,
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, both of these teams really kind of get
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: them into games that involve scoring a lot of the time.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Not the greatest goaltending that we're going to see here, typically,
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: from these two teams. But this is just an awful
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: spot for Columbus, so I've got to fade them here.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: They're coming up back-to-back huge wins, really four huge games
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: in a row against Columbus. Carolina, Dallas, both those on
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: the road. They didn't lose by that much in either
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: of those. Then they turned around in the return home spot.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: Even they blew out the avalanche and insane win there.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Then they didn't suffer the letdown after that. And they
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: took Dallas into a shootout yesterday and won that game.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: Do you really think Buffalo is going to have the
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Columbus is going to have anything left in the tank here?
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: For a Buffalo team, it's been kind of middling, even
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: though they made the playoffs last year. I don't think
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Buffalo's that good, but this looks like the overlook spot
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: to me for Columbus, coming off four huge games in
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: a row. Then after this game, this is a single-game
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: road trip, too, so they've got to go over to
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: Buffalo for just this one game with no time off
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: after all that. Then they are going to come back home,
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: and they've got to face Florida, who is one of
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: the best teams in the league, and then Tampa, who
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: is also one of the best teams in the league. No. No,
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: this is a big-time sandwich spot. They will switch back
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: to Greaves probably in net for this because Talbot was
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: their goalie in those two big wins. And, yeah, by
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: the way, Greaves, yeah, they've lost his last three starts,
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: so that's maybe not a good sign either. So probably
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: a downgrade in goalie for Columbus here. Everything looking pretty
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: good to fade Columbus here. And for Buffalo... they just
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: lost in a return home spot. It was to a
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: decent Edmonton team, although Edmonton without all Mark, I believe still, but, um,
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: as I talk about when a team returns home from
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: a road trip it's a distraction spot typically you got
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: to get back to home life a lot of things
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: can come in and take your mind away from the
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: game itself and a lot of times you have a
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: bad game but when that happens typically you If that
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: return home spot is a bad game for that team,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: that team usually does refocus and bounce back in the
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: next game. I think that is what we will see
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: from Buffalo here. Horrible spot for Columbus on top of it.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: It is a historically positive spot that Buffalo is in here.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: We will take the Buffalo Sabres in this game to
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: win in regulation. They do look like they're a public side.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: 81% of the tickets, but 94% of the money on
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: them as well. So... The money seems like it's on
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: the same side as the public here, and the public
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: probably isn't focusing on hockey too much, and there are
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: all these other sports that are more popular that are
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: going on today. They're going to focus on all the
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: other sports, NBA, college football, and college basketball more so
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: than this, and there are a few big college basketball games,
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: or at least one really big one, which is in
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: the title here, obviously. But yeah, Buffalo, unfortunately, is about
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: a minus 170 favorite. So we had to find a
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: way to get that price down. I think the screen here,
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: this FanDuel number, is probably actually pulling the regulation line,
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: like the three-way line here. That is what I'm looking
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: at here. If for some reason this money line drops
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: into somewhere around minus 150, if you want to play
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: the money line, I mean, I wouldn't be opposed to
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: playing the money line anyway. It just is... Pretty hefty,
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: like at minus 170, you know, so I wanted to
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: find a way to get it down. Yeah, they got
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: a win in regulation, but I think they could do
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: it with a decent amount of scoring expected here. Let's, yeah,
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: let's do it. Let's take Buffalo to win the game
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: in regulation. All right. Randy, yes, sir. Welcome back. Happy Friday.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: Thank you, sir. Yeah, I'm not, not happy about yesterday, obviously.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not happy. I'm not, not, not happy. Yeah,
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: not a double negative there. San Jose, Minnesota on NHL Network.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: San Jose is on a three-game losing streak. They're coming
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: off a really, really ugly loss, 7-2 to the Kings. Kings,
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: I think, are better than people think they are based
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: on their record, but that is a horrible loss still.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: I expected a lot better out of the Sharks in
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: that one. You might get it here, though. They've had
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: a day off and coming off a really bad loss
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: like that. Playing a good team, I think you're at
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: least going to get effort out of the Sharks here.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: On the other side, Minnesota has won a couple of
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: games in a row here. They have one of the
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: best records in the league. They're returning home from a
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: road trip, technically, although it was only Sunday, Tuesday, only
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: a two-game road trip. But they swept that road trip,
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: beating Washington and then beating Philly, which isn't really that
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: big of a deal. But coming back home, there is
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: still a possibility of maybe being distracted here. And their
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: games that are upcoming are bigger than this. They have
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: to play Tampa Bay tomorrow. Tampa Bay is coming in
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: into Minnesota tomorrow. That's a bigger game than this. Even
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: though this is a Western Conference game, I know, but
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: Tampa is a really good team. And then they get
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: Montreal after that. I know another Eastern team, but still
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: really good as well. So I think there could be
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: a look ahead component to this. So I would lean
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: towards San Jose in this game. The money seems like
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: it does agree with that. Minnesota, 90% of the tickets,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: 70% of the money on them. about minus 260 almost,
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: so it's a really, really heavy price tag on Minnesota here.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: Not a price I would want to be laying. I mean,
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: they're priced as if they are one of the best
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: teams in the league, and they're good, but I don't
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: know if they're quite that good, and I think San
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: Jose is being overlooked right now. I think they're being undervalued.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: I think San Jose is a mediocre to somewhat good team,
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: to be honest, so yeah, I would prefer San Jose.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: They're getting a huge price. Uh, you can get them
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: probably on the plus one and a half puck line
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: at a reasonable price in that one. That's how I
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: would look there. Then we have Anaheim Calgary. Anaheim won
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: the game yesterday. So I was correct about that one. Um,
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: I was not correct about the, uh, Penguins lean. The
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: Bruins keep doing a lot better than I expect them
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: to man, even in bad spots, they keep winning. It's
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: for the most part, it's kind of wild. Um, Wild.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: The Minnesota Wild. The Bruins did have one bad spot
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: where they did lose against the Blues, which almost made
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: the card for me. But, you know, they've been performing
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: well for the most part. Anyway, the Ducks got a
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: nice win yesterday at Edmonton. Now they're playing a third
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: game in four days and a fourth game in six days,
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: all in different cities. That is not something I would
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: be interested in backing. I'm going to be leaning towards
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: Calgary in this one. This looks like a letdown spot
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: for the Ducks. Plus, this is a bad scheduling spot
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: for them in general. It's a really, really packed schedule.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: So this is not good for the Ducks here. Calgary,
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: they did just lose to them at home the last
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: time they played them. They actually beat them here in
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: Calgary early in the season.
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: Then.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: They lost to them more recently, but I still don't
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: think that's going to keep them that focused. This Calgary
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: team is not a team that's really going to draw
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: that much attention, even though they've played fairly well. I
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: think they're overperforming Calgary. They're not as good as their
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: record makes them look, but I do think that they're
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: in a better spot here. They are returning home from
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: a road trip, though, so I don't like that. That
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: is a negative spot for sure. They've been away since Saturday.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: They had a losing road trip. They're coming back home here. Again,
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: that could be a distraction spot to some extent here.
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: I do think this game is going to matter more
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: than their upcoming games against Philly and the Rangers, though.
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: Eastern Conference teams that aren't playing well, so I don't
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: think they're going to completely disregard Anaheim here. I would
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: rather have the team in the return home spot here.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: I don't want it. I'm not going to play on
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: a team in a return home spot. The money is
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: not even agreeing with me on this. 61% of the
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: tickets on Calgary, 67% of the cash on Anaheim. So
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: the money's actually playing Anaheim. And I think that probably
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: has to do with the price. Like why is Calgary
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: a minus 130 favorite here? You know what I mean?
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: So I think the professional money is saying, well, This
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: line is an overreaction to the rest situation. And maybe
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: it is. I mean, the line is going to move
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: due to the rest situation. So because Anaheim's on the back-to-back,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: that's why the line is where it is. I think
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: you'd be seeing probably Anaheim favored in this game if
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: that wasn't the case. And I do agree that Anaheim
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: is the better team. So I think that is the
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: numbers guys coming in and just saying, well, this line's
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: gotten too far. Let's just take Anaheim as the underdog.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: But given the spot... Yeah, I don't love that. I'd
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: lean towards Calgary, but perhaps the better approach here is
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: the over with Anaheim having no rest here, which could
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: definitely affect the defense. They're going to be changing their goalie,
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: and I think they have some goalie injuries too because
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: they've been using Brassois as their goalie, and I don't even...
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: know where he came from. Their main guy is Dostal,
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: but I think he's hurt or something because he hasn't
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: been playing. So I don't even know what Anaheim is
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: doing as far as their goalie here. So they could
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: give up some goals here, that's for sure. For Calgary,
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: after Cooley had that hot run, they either switched away
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: from him or he got hurt or something because they
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: haven't used him in a while either. So I think
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: they're probably going to be using Wolfe here. He's a
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: mediocre goalie, so I don't know. This game definitely could
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: go over the total, and that might be the best
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: way to play this. 50% of the tickets are on
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: the over, but 91% of the money on the over.
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: It does seem like the money is agreeing with that.
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: It is a 6.5. There's a 6.5 on all three
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: games today, which is one of the higher totals that
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: you'll get in hockey, so expect it to be sort
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: of on the higher side based on where the number is.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: I think the over makes sense. No, by period is
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: just who wins that specific period. It's going to be
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: under like the three-way line section or something like that.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: It's almost like a soccer play. But yeah, for hockey,
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: you can do a lot of different things. The winner
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: by period is who wins each specific period. So I think, yeah,
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: it should be something like called the three-way line, I think,
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: depending on what book it is. I think that's what
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: DK calls it at least. Some books may not have that,
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: but I'd be surprised if they didn't. The other option
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: is to split the bet and put part of it
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: on the minus one and a half puck line and
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: part of it on the money line, but I don't
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: particularly love... I know I've done it on the show
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: this year even, but I don't particularly love demanding that
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: a team win by two goals in hockey. It's easier
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: for the team that you like to win in regulation
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: than it is to ask them to win by two
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: goals in in a hockey game. So that's, yeah, I mean,
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: that's how I look at it. But yeah, it should
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: be under like three-way line or something like that. Or nine, nine,
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: or sorry, 60-minute line, they might call it. I'm thinking
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: soccer still. In soccer, they call it 90-minute line because
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: it's a 90-minute regulation. Hockey, it's a 60-minute regulation. Yeah,
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: they might call it 60-minute line might be it. Something
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: like that. Yeah, it's either three-way line or 60-minute line.
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: Not to be confused with the news show on CBS,
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: 60 Minutes. I don't even know who hosts it now.
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: I have not paid any attention to that show in
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: quite a while. It's all propaganda anyway. All right, NBA
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: is where I'll go next here. Washington and Atlanta, first
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: game up. I should be going to college basketball because
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: college basketball starts early. but it's still mostly evening stuff,
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: so whatever. Obviously, I'll have the show done way, way
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: before it starts anyway. This game could be a zigzag
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: spot because Atlanta just lost in Washington by 15 points.
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: And Atlanta was actually the road favorite in that game too. Atlanta,
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: I think, was... or excuse me, Atlanta won, excuse me,
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: in Washington. What am I saying? Atlanta won in Washington.
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: I think they were about a one and a half
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: point favorite in that game. Now they won in Washington
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: by 15. So this is one of those like quick
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: road reversal games that I like to look for when
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: you have two teams that are playing each other twice
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: in a row. Although I think these games tonight might
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: be the cup games. Let me see. Yeah, so that's
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: something to keep in mind. NBA, we're back in cup
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: action group play tonight. Whether that matters that much, I
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: handicap these games kind of similar to regular season games
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: because these games just get thrown right into the regular
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: season schedule. But yes, be aware that this is NBA
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: Cup group play, and that could have an effect where
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: maybe motivation changes a little bit here. I do think
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: this does look like a zigzag spot as Atlanta just
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: went into Washington and beat them. Now it flips the
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: other way. Now we're going to be in Atlanta and
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: Washington may be the team that has the adjustments to
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: make here. That's how the zigzag works long term. When
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: you see a team have sort of a lopsided result
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: and then those two teams are playing each other again.
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: if you see anything that was like an outlier in
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: the stats in that first game, a lot of times
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: that will regress and you'll be able to get the
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: money by playing the other side of it. And that
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: is the way that I would lean here. I'd be
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: leaning towards Washington here for that reason, but it's more
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: than just that. Atlanta's a seven, seven and a half
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: point favorite in this game. Now all the money's coming
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: in on Atlanta. And I do not agree with that.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: 62% of the tickets on Washington, 81% of the cash
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: on Atlanta. This, I just told you Atlanta was a
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: one and a half point favorite in the previous game.
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: at Washington, and now you're going to line them seven
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: and a half at home. I mean, they might be
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: getting somebody back, I guess. That might be the reason,
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: because I don't think there's really any major injury on
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: the Washington side right now that would be causing it. Actually,
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: you know what? Anthony Davis, I think, is day-to-day, but
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: is that really going to move the line like this?
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, I know he's one of their best players still,
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: and he's a big inside presence, but that shouldn't move
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: the line this much. Teams don't get that much for
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: home court. Even in group play, you know, the colored arena, whatever,
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's that much. I think you're still
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: only going to get like maybe one and a half
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: for home court in the NBA. It's not much. So
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: this line moving from Atlanta one and a half to
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: now seven and a half seems like way too big
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: of a move to me unless somebody didn't play for
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: Atlanta in the last game. But it seems like an
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: overreaction to what we just saw. I think you're getting
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: a little bit of extra value if you play Washington
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: plus the points there. That's how I would lean. in
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: this game, disagreeing with the market here. And if you
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: look at what happened in the last game, I do
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: think there were some outliers here. Yeah, I mean, the
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: major outlier here, Atlanta hit 13 more three-pointers in the
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: game than Washington did. So they're plus 39 from three-point range.
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: Washington only hit 23% from three. That is likely to regress,
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: I would say. Although Atlanta did dominate the rebound battle,
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: so that is somewhat of a concern if you do
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: want Washington here they got annihilated on the rebounds although
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: you think with Davis in there or whatever they'd be
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: a better rebounding team I don't know I believe this
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: is also this is Trey Young for Washington against his
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: former team as well though I think he's probably already
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: played against them since they traded him or whatever the
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: other concern in this game is that Atlanta did have
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: a bunch of additional possessions in this game so they
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: were they were the better team in this game even
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: though the Final score is misleading based on that three-point outlier.
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: Atlanta did still outplay them in this game, and I
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: did like Atlanta in that game, but even so, all
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: that being taken into account, I do lean Washington plus
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: the points here in this one. Market not agreeing with me,
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: but yeah. I mean, I don't like it because the
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: market is so strongly agreeing with Atlanta right now, although
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: it could change by the time the game ends. Tips off,
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: but yeah, just giving you all the information. But based
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: on the situation, I think the zigzag is still the
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: best look in that game, and I would lean towards Washington.
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: My Boston Celtics at Charlotte. Celtics are coming off a tough, well,
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: not a tough game, but like a game that they
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: should have won easily against the Bucs. Let's put it
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: that way. Celtics were a huge favorite in that game
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: against the Bucs, double digits. They're winning the game by
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: more than that. They're winning the game in a blowout basically.
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: And then all of a sudden they were losing the game.
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: I think they blew like a 20 point lead in
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: this game in the second half. And then all of
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: a sudden they almost lost the game. They were able
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: to escape with the win. But you know, I talk
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: about this when a team has an escape like that
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: as a big favorite, it usually shocks them back into focus.
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: So that has me actually looking towards the Celtics in
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: this game. But the line makes it look too easy
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: to play the Celtics. Well, sort of. Maybe not. They're
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: a bigger favorite than I thought they were. They're playing
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: at Charlotte here. Charlotte, they're on a five-game losing streak
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: right now, although two of those games were against the
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: Pistons and one was against the Sixers. So they lost
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: games against better teams, but the Celtics are also a
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: better team. And if you look at the wins that
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: the Hornets have so far, it's not great. They beat
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: the Nets, the Heat, the Wizards. Those are their only
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: wins so far. So the Hornets have not stepped up
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: that well in class here. They are coming off a
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: really bad loss to the Nets, though. So they probably
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: were looking ahead, I would say. They should probably be
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: in bounce-back mode here, too. But I think you're going
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: to get both teams as focus teams here. Celtics coming
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: off that scare. Even though the Celtics, they don't really
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: seem to care about the NBA Cup that much, though,
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: based on what we've seen the last couple years. But
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: I still kind of like the Celtics in this one.
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: with both teams being focused and Celtics coming off a
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: major scare, I'd be probably leaning towards laying it, but
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: the money, again, doesn't agree with me. Celtics are very public,
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: which makes sense. I mean, I'm not shocked by that.
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: 79% of the tickets, only 71% of the money on them.
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: They're laying 8, 8.5 here on the road. It is
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: a really low total, 208.5, 207.5. Celtics, their three-point shooting
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: has not been that good this year so far. They've
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: been winning anyway, but... They do play slow. They play
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: a half-court style, even though they're known for hitting a
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: ton of threes and sometimes scoring a lot, but they
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: do play a slower pace, so that factors into the
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: total here. Plus, the Celtics, they have a good defense, too.
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: So that all gets factored into the total here. Hornets
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: are sort of like the mini-Celtics. They do fire off
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: a ton of threes, but I don't know, man. Celtics
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: are better at it. Although, I will say Charlotte has
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: given the Celtics problems in these recent years since The
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: Celtics' former assistant coach or whatever took the head coaching
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: job at Charlotte. He knows how the Celtics operate, so
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: the Hornets have given the Celtics some problems recently, but
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: I still kind of like the Celtics off of that
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: major scare, which was also a game where they played
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: a lot better than it looked, and Charlotte just hasn't
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: really done much against any of the better teams in
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: the league so far, and the Celtics are one of those,
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: so that's how I look at that game, but the
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: money doesn't agree with me, so I am leery about that,
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: of course. I don't like disagreeing with the market like that.
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: We have an Amazon Prime doubleheader. The games that are
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: on the doubleheader are probably the two best games. And
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: the first one is like the big game of the night,
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: the primetime slot here. This is the marquee game between
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia and Cleveland, of course. Philadelphia is 8-1. They just
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: got another big win against Detroit. There is a possible
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: letdown spot here, maybe. They already did play Cleveland once,
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: and they beat them in Philly. But Cleveland was pretty
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: good in that game. Cleveland, actually, I'm pretty sure that
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: Cleveland had a huge lead in that game, if I
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: remember correctly, and completely imploded. Am I right about that?
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: In Cleveland style, just like they did last year in
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: the playoffs against the Knicks. And I think, if I
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: remember correctly, in both situations, I faded Cleveland in the
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: game after that because when you have a monster effort
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: like that and you are blowing out your opponent and
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: then you somehow still blow that game, yeah, you're in
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: a bad spot in the next game. However, I think
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: that sets this game up to look towards Cleveland in
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: this one. Phillies, they might take Cleveland a little bit
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: less seriously even though Cleveland had a big lead against them.
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: Philly still beat them. Philly's coming up with another big
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: win against Detroit. That was the only team that beat
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: Philly this season, Detroit. So Philly avenged that loss. So yeah,
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: this looks like a little bit of a tricky spot.
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: They do play Chicago next, which is not big, of course.
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: If it was the Celtics, who they play after that,
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: then this could maybe qualify as a sandwich spot. Not
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: that they're really going to necessarily fully overlook Cleveland. I mean,
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: they might. Cleveland's only sitting at 4-4. I think Cleveland
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: is better than their record looks. And Cleveland is coming
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: up two straight losses to Oklahoma City. Oklahoma City is
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: still one of the better teams in the league, even
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: though they're injured right now. But my hesitation here would
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: be that those were two huge games for Cleveland, and
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: they played pretty well in both games. Both games were
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: fairly close results. So I don't really want to try
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: to back Cleveland off of that. Although... If I had
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: to pick this game, which I am giving out opinions
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: on every game here, I would lean towards the Cavs
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: in this one. The number, it looks way too easy
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: to play the Sixers in this game at two and
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: a half, 83% of the tickets, 88% of the cash
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: on them. So they are a public side. not really
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: much of a cash disparity there on that one so
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: I think if you're taking Cleveland you're definitely fading the
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: public and I don't think that you're really going against
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: like real professional money here I think this is mostly
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: kind of just public activity here would be my guess
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: but it looks so easy to lay two and a
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: half of the Sixers you know what I mean plus
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: motivation as far as winning the cup. I mean, again,
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: I know the teams that were in the cup final
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: last year were the Spurs and the Thunder. I don't
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: know if that was a product of the fact that
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: they were super motivated to win the NBA cup or
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: if they've, if they're just that much better than the
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: other teams in the league, even though I know the
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: Knicks won the championship.
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah. But, Spurs Thunder are still, I mean, last year especially,
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: they were the top two teams in the league by,
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: I think, kind of a wide margin. And starting this year,
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: I said the same thing, just that Oklahoma City is
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: hurt right now. But yeah, I would lean towards Cleveland
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: in that one. All right, let me see here. Plus
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: the points, but if you're doing that, you're basically saying
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: you think they're going to win. Next game, I will
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: give out a play here on this next game, which
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: is going to be Taking the Utah Jazz plus the
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: points here. 7.5 is pretty much where the number is here.
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: I'm going to use some drops here. Yes. In a
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: second here. I've got to get back to some of
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: these hilarious drops, dude. But the whole thing about this
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: is we're going to fade the Dallas Mavericks here. The
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: Mavericks just took the Spurs right to the wire. That
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: was a monster game for Dallas. A Texas rivalry, but also...
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: You know how big of a game that is against
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: the Spurs, right? Massive, massive game. Saab got that one
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: right on the show as far as Dallas covering. Yeah,
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: they definitely covered. They almost won the game outright. It's
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: like an 11.5 point underdog. Coming off of a massive
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: effort like that, spot doesn't look good to me for
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: Dallas here coming off of that. I think simply this
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: is a huge hangover spot for Dallas off of that. Dallas,
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: after they look pretty good, they're still kind of, they're
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: still working through some things, man. Dallas, they still have
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: a new coach here. They're still trying to get the
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: chemistry sorted out. Kyrie, I think, missed all of last year,
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: I'm guessing, if I remember correctly. He hasn't played with
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: Flagg really yet, so they're really trying to get the
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: chemistry going and whatever. I think this is just a
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: horrible spot for them anyway, though. Unfortunately, they don't have
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: a big game on deck. It's Brooklyn, so it's not
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: a sandwich spot, but still, I think this is a
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: huge hangover spot here. Utah is coming off kind of
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: an ugly game against the Pelicans, although... Utah was the
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: underdog in that game, and they did take the Pelicans
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: into overtime. But, you know, I mean, I think Utah
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: is going to be in a better spot after that.
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: They're mid-road trip, and they want to get a win
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: here at least. It is the cup. I get it.
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: Both teams could be motivated for that reason. That might
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: help Utah not look past Dallas and be looking ahead
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: to Minnesota too, though. So Minnesota also injured right now
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: with AE out and whatever. So, yeah, I expect Utah
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: to be focused here, though, because Utah has only won
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: one game on the season. They've lost... whatever this is,
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: six games in a row. Nobody's going to want them.
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: They lost to San Antonio twice, but they also took
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: San Antonio to overtime once. But people might disregard that
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: and look at the most recent game. Oh, San Antonio
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: blew out Dallas most recently. Yeah, but, or excuse me,
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: blew out Utah most recently. But didn't they also blow
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: out Dallas earlier in the year? Yeah, they did. Well,
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: they won by 16. So both of these teams have
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: played the Spurs twice already, and they both have an
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: overtime loss to the Spurs, and they both have an
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: uglier loss to the Spurs. But the spot is just
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: horrible for Dallas, in my opinion, coming off of that game.
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: So we'll grab the Jazz plus the points here in
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: this one. The money, it's hard to read. I thought
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: the money was agreeing with me. I think Dallas will
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: be the public side here. No public better is going
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: to be backing a one-win team here. Although I think
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: Utah's a little bit under the radar here. I don't
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: think they're as bad as their record makes them look.
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: They have some pretty good pieces that they've added. Utah's
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: talent level is a little bit better than the record looks,
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: I will say. Dallas, 67% of the tickets, 68% of
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: the money on them. But I think they will shape
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: up to be a public side here, and you can
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: already kind of see that. They're 7.5. The total's not
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: that high in the 220s, kind of a mid-range total
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: there for an NBA game. Yeah, Utah will be my
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: play in that one. We'll do it. Go, Utah. Who
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: do I root for?
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: What do I do? Yeah.
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: Root for Utah! Utah! There you go. Celtic Pride, baby.
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: Very underrated movie. If you like stupid comedies and sports,
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: I would check it out. Even though Dan Aykroyd and
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: Daniel Stern are not Bostonians, and they play Bostonians, they
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: try to get the accent down and whatever, but it's
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: a pretty funny movie under the radar, and I'm in
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: it as an extra as a kid, so.
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: A little bit of a bonus there. I don't even remember.
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: I think you can find me very, very briefly, but
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: you have to look for my dad with a big
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: beard who was sitting next to me. It's difficult to do.
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: I think there's one frame maybe where you can spot us,
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: but it's very difficult to find during one of the
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: games being played in the movie. It was at the
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: old Boston Garden, too, right before they tore it down, R.I.P.,
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: Boston Garden had no air conditioning, by the way. If
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: people don't know that, infamously it led to that sweat
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: game or whatever you want to call it where the
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: Lakers are butthurt about it still. I'm like, whatever, man.
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: You can't deal with the conditions. That's on you. Plus, Boston,
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: you think the Boston... area. We're less used to the
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: heat than LA is. What are you doing, man? But yeah,
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: the Celtics had a playoff game that was really infamous
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: that helped them get by the Lakers. I think it
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: was one of those series where the Celtics were kind
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: of injured and they were losing the series against the
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: Lakers and they came back and won the series in
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: the finals. And the game that kind of completely changed
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: the series, or it might have been the game seven even,
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: I forget which game it was in the series, but
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: it was like Boston Garden was turned into... basically hell
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: pretty much because it was, it was in May. So
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: it was getting warm up, but it was like a
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: hundred something degrees inside the arena with no air conditioning.
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: So it was just, yeah, the heat was insane. And
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: I think there were people passing out in the stands
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: or whatever, but both teams had to deal with it.
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: It wasn't, it wasn't like the Celtics didn't have to
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: deal with it. Um, you know, both teams had to,
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: and the Celtics played through it way better than the
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: Lakers did. Celtics tougher team, man.
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: Sorry.
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to tell you. And you got, yeah,
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: Larry Bird, white man from, from Indiana. He's a, he's
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: the tougher, tougher dude there. There you go. Even though
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: he told me to F off when I tried to
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: get his autograph once when I was 11. So that will,
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: that will go down in infamy at a summer league
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: event where Bird was coaching the Indiana Pacers at the time. I, I,
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: Sort of kind of chased him down a hall where
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: he was kind of headed towards the locker rooms, but still.
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: I wanted him to sign this Celtics hat where I
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: have all of his contemporaries on it already. All the
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: other players from that Celtics era, they've already signed that hat.
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: Kevin McHale, Robert Parrish, Dennis Johnson, R.I.P. I think I
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: do have Danny Ainge on it, too. I have a
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: lot of signatures on that one. Bird is the only
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: one missing, and nope. F off, kid. Oh, thanks. Thank you, sir.
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: All right. Next up is Oklahoma City and Memphis. Oklahoma
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: City's coming off two pretty good wins against the Cavs.
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: So the Cavs, they're better than the record looks again,
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: losing twice to the Thunder. There's no shame in that, really.
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: They played pretty well against the Thunder in both games.
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: But now the Thunder are coming off what I would
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: say are two pretty big wins. Now they're playing Memphis here,
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: going back out on the road. Memphis... has lost two
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: games in a row after a 6-0 start. And while
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: I don't think Memphis is as good as that start
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: would indicate, and they still haven't played anybody good, so
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: that is the worry with Memphis. I think they've had
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: the weakest schedule in the entire league, probably. I mean,
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: their best win is against Portland. I know I keep
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: shitting on Portland. Fine, Portland's an okay team. Memphis beat them.
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: I still think Portland's not as good as their record looks, though.
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: So we'll see how that shapes up. But now that
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: Memphis has lost two games in a row, I think
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: they might have a bounce back effort here. A lot
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: of times when you lose that first game of the season,
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: deeper into the season, it becomes a hangover spot into
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: the next game. And I thought that might happen in Memphis,
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: and it did. They lost at home as a favorite against,
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: I think, a fairly injured Indiana team. So this looks
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: like kind of a bounce back spot to me for Memphis.
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: The Memphis Grizzlies. I would lean towards the Grizzlies in
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: this one, and it's not that big of a line
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: on the Thunder, and I think that's where the public's
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: going to come in. They're three and a half, four
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: basically here, 81% of the tickets, 90% of the money
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: on OKC though, but I would fade them in this one.
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: I would take the points. with Memphis in that one.
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: That is the way I would lean there. Thunder coming
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: off some more difficult games there, better games, bigger wins.
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: So I think the spot does set up for Memphis
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: to be the side to look at there. Next up
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: will be my other basketball play, and the money is
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: not agreeing with me on this one, but we're going
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: to lay the 6.5 with the Toronto Raptors against the
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee Bucks. The Milwaukee sucks because that's what I think
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: they do. I think they suck. And the main part
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: of this handicap is, you know what it is because
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: I already mentioned it. Milwaukee's coming off that game where
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: they overcame like a 27th deficit against the Celtics, took
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: the lead in the fourth quarter only to still fall
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: short at the end of it. A monster effort for
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: the Bucs against one of the premier teams in the
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: league on the road as a huge underdog. Whether this
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: is a cup game or not, it's hard to get
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: back up off the mat after a game like that, man.
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: So I think this is a flat spot for Milwaukee.
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: And it's a little bit worse because guess who Milwaukee's
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: playing next? They're playing the Boston Celtics again. So they're
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: in a Boston sandwich. And then they have the Knicks
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: and the Lakers after this. So yeah, even though this
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: is a cup game, And a team like the Bucs
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: that's not going anywhere, you could argue they should be
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: motivated here against a Toronto team that's almost certainly going
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: to be a playoff team. You know, it's just not
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: a good spot, dude. I don't know what to tell you.
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: This Milwaukee team, yeah, they're facing a really difficult schedule recently.
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: They just had to play Houston, Cleveland, Minnesota, Boston all
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: in a row. But that Boston game was a monster
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: effort for them. And as it sets up now, I
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: think they might fall flat in this one. I like Toronto,
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: even though the money's not going to be agreeing with
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: me on this one. And also, yeah, so the Boston
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: sandwich that Toronto's in, I will say that's, you could
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: go a couple of different ways with that. You could
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: go with the North Shore roast beef three-way sandwich is
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: what Milwaukee is in here. People outside of Massachusetts don't
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: even know what I'm talking about. The Toad food tours
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: happen on this show sometimes. Yeah, if you come up
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: to the Boston area, go north of Boston, get a
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: North Shore sandwich, Roast beef sandwich, man. It is an
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: excellent sandwich. You've got to go to one of the
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: better places for it, though. Bella's, I would say, is
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: one of the best that does it every day. I
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: would say Modern Butcher, but they're only open on Saturdays. Bella's,
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: I think, would be my pick if you're going to
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: go to a place for that. Not Kelly's. Kelly's roast beef,
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: they became corporatized. Their chain and their quality went way downhill,
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: so not them. But the North Shore roast beef is
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: a roast beef sandwich basically on an onion roll, typically.
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: It's thinly shaved, rare roast beef, warm pink roast beef
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: or hot roast beef, really, with American cheese on it.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: And the cheese melts onto the sandwich. And it has
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: James River barbecue sauce, which I don't know why we
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: use that up here because it's the James River in Virginia. That's,
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: I believe, where that barbecue sauce originated. That's what we
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: use here for its, it complements the sandwich really well.
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: It's a sweet barbecue sauce, has a decent spice profile,
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: and there's mayo on the sandwich as well. That's the three-way. Yeah,
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: so you got to order the three-way when you come
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: up here, man. Get really dirty with that sandwich. And
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: it gets messy as hell. And if the place does
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: it right, it looks like a tower when they give
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: it to you. And you actually have to smash the
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: sandwich down to actually fit it in your mouth. And
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: it gets really messy. And the sauce goes everywhere. But
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: it is definitely worth it. Or the other Boston sandwich.
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: This could be an Italian sandwich. If you want to
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: go that way with Boston, like in Boston, you can
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: get the best Italian sandwich probably anywhere in the country
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: at Monica's Mercato in the north end of Boston. It's
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: an Italian market. You can get their imported meats from Italy.
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: That's why it's so good. You can buy just the
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: meats there or you can get an Italian sandwich they
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: make there in-house. They have really good bread as well. Yeah,
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: that is the shit as well. But I got to
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: talk about this game again. Seven and a half at
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: plus 113. You got to get more books, man. Do
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: they have alternate lines on that? They're trying to screw
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: you because they know that seven is a somewhat key
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: number in basketball. It's not like football. It's not that key.
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: But seven is where teams stop potentially fouling because it's
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: a three possession threshold. I mean, yeah, I mean, I'd
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: probably still do it and you're getting a cheaper price
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: on it. But they're doing that to screw you because
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: they don't want you to take the better number. Like
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: I said, I would get more books. And hopefully you
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: have a book that has six and a half. I
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: didn't see any books with a seven, though. I only
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: saw six and a half and seven and a half.
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: And full disclosure, the six and a half was at
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: minus 115 for me. So it was a little bit...
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: It had a little bit of juice on it. Juicy
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: like a North Shore roast beef, really. I would still
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: probably do it at seven and a half. In basketball,
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, it's a key number, but it's not
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: as key as it is in football. But yeah, as
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: far as Toronto's concerned, Toronto... They're coming off a pretty
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: ugly loss to the Nuggets. They are finishing up a
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: road trip here. So I know sometimes when you get
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: towards the end of a road trip, you get a
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: little bit weary. And they were just out on the
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: Pacific Coast and then in elevation. I get it. They're
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: playing a fourth game in six days here, which I
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: know that's not great. But they're not playing a third
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: game in four days, though. They had the back-to-back Sunday-Monday.
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: So they've had... Two of the last three days off,
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: so they should be a little bit more rested here.
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: They just lost in Denver by a bunch, which isn't
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: going to look like a great loss because Denver hasn't
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: been playing that well, but Denver is still a strong team.
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: I think Toronto will show up and bounce back from this.
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: This is a step way down in class for Toronto
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: after playing Denver, and Toronto looked pretty decent against the
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: Lakers a few games back, so Milwaukee is obviously significantly
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: worse than the Lakers as well. We're going to take
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: Toronto here. The money is completely disagreeing with me on this.
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: The numbers at six and a half, seven here for
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: the most part across the board, it looks like. But,
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: you know, like Randy is saying, a lot of the
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: books I think just are not putting a seven up
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: there on it. They want to make you take a
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: worse number, man. Toronto, 81% of the tickets on them, though.
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: 67% of the cash on Milwaukee. I don't agree with it.
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: I don't like fading a market read that looks that strong,
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: but I think this is a good spot for Toronto.
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: I don't get it. NBA, at some point we're going
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: to regress in the NBA. There's no doubt about it.
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: I'm at 11-3 right now in the NBA to start
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: the season. Obviously, we can't run that hot forever in
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: the NBA, but NBA, you know, traditionally is the sport
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: that I have the best gauge on, so I like
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: Toronto in that one. We got Minnesota and New Orleans. Minnesota,
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: of course, without Anthony Edwards, still I have no idea
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: when he's coming back. There's still a decent team though,
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: even without him. I think there's still one of the
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: better teams in the Western Conference. They're sitting at 6-3,
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: not too bad. They just beat Houston, though, and that
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: could be a little bit of a problem. That's a
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: big win against Houston. They might consider that to be
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: a bigger game than a cup game against the New
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: Orleans Pelicans. You know what I mean? Even though, again,
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: it's hard to figure out which teams put more effort
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: into this cup and which won't. You know what I mean?
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: New Orleans probably guaranteed they're going to get up for
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: this game, and they did just almost lose as a
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: favorite at least at home against a one-win Utah team.
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: Staying at home, I think the spot sets up better
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: for the Pelicans here. Could be a little bit of
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: a letdown for Minnesota off the big win over Houston. Pelicans,
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: that was an upset win, I'm pretty sure. I think
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: it was at Houston, so I think it was almost
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: certainly an upset. And yeah, and New Orleans almost got
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: upset at home by a Utah team that isn't playing
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: particularly well. So even though I know we have Utah
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: on the card tonight, but I like the Pelicans to
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: cover the spread in this game. Minnesota is a four
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. Makes it look kind of
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: easy to lay the points with Minnesota. That's not a
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: big number. 57% of the tickets are on them, so
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: they have a slight public lean towards them. Looks like
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: the real money is agreeing with me on this one
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: on the New Orleans side. 66% of the money on them.
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: So the real money seems to agree on the Pelicans there.
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: I agree with that. The other Amazon Prime game is
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: Portland and L.A., and this has become a big game
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: because Portland's sitting at 6-1, even though I don't think
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: they're as good as that. They're better than we thought
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: they were going to be, but they did already come
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: into L.A. and beat the Lakers by 7 earlier this year,
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: and I liked Portland in that game. I don't like
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: them as much in this game, though. I think Portland
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: is a little bit overrated right now at 6-1. They
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: look really good right now. Their best wins are that
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: one against the Lakers and the one at the Nuggets,
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: and yes, those are good wins. There's no doubt about that,
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: but I'm still not Totally sold on this Portland team.
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: Will they be a playoff team? Yes, I think certainly.
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: But a lot of teams make the playoffs, man. This
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: Portland team, I don't think they're taking that much of
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: a leap forward this year. I still see them as like.
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: A 6-7.
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: Seed once we get to the playoffs, especially because the
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: Western Conference is difficult. But the Lakers obviously remember losing
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: at home. Although Portland, by the way, I think they're
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: 5-0 on the road. Lakers pretty good at home, though, 4-1. Lakers,
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: I still believe to be the better team here. The
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: Lakers are coming off an easier game kind of against
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: the Kings. It got a little bit chippy. Some crap
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: going on in that game. I think the public will
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: put more stock into the Blazers win, beating the Suns
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: and putting up 130 in a high scoring game. That
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: looks better than the Lakers beating the Kings. Nobody's going
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: to care about the Lakers beating the Kings. Even though
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: both the Suns and the Kings are one win teams,
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: I think everybody kind of knows how bad the Kings
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: really are, but I still love that I got the
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: Kings game right on the show, though the one win
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: that they had, that was a play I gave out
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: on the show, so I'm still happy about that. I'll
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: lean towards the Lakers in this one. Possibility of a zigzag,
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: although if you look at their previous game against Portland,
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: I don't think there were really that many outliers to
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: see in that game. I think Portland did actually somewhat
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: outplay them in that game, but I think the Lakers
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: might flip the script in this one and get the
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: win in this one. I lean towards the Lakers here. Portland,
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: they have 52% of the tickets and 55% of the
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: cash on them, so it's really difficult to read the
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: market in this one. Lakers are about the same as
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: what they were in the other games. Portland. They're about
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: a two and a half point favorite. They remain that
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: way here. Yeah, I'll lean Lakers in that one. Lakers though,
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, they got some problems still. Their defense is
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: a concern. Their offense is good. Their defense, not so much.
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: So that's what you get out of the Lakers. But
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: I think this might be a little bit of a
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: better spot for them here. Money actually coming in on
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: the under in that game, for what that's worth. I
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: don't think I'd really ever want to play an under
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: in a Laker game, though. Then we have the last
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: game is Spurs and Kings. I kind of like the
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: Spurs in this one, even though you'd have to lay
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: a ton of points here to do it, and that's
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: just not really in my repertoire. I'll lay like 7,
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: 8 sometimes on the road in the NBA because they
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: are high-scoring games. 15.5 is a little bit crazy, but.
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: We're talking about possibly the best team in the league
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: right now against the worst team in the league. So
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: 15 and a half on the road might actually be
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: still somewhat reasonable. And as I mentioned, the Kings, they're
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: coming up a bad, or excuse me, the Spurs are
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: coming up a bad performance against Dallas, right? So they
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: almost lost the game to Dallas. I think that might
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: spark them back into focus. And we saw San Antonio
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: took the cup very seriously last year. And they won
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: it last year. And while that means that teams might
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: be gunning for them because of that, it does tell
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: you that they wanted to win this thing. And that
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: might still be the case here. The Spurs might show up.
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: They might be playing to win. They look like they're
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: in a bounce-back spot here. The Kings are a bad team,
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: which we all know that. That's factored into the line.
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: Kings are coming off a decent effort against the Lakers.
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: They were kind of hanging around close in that game
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: for a while. I think in the fourth quarter, the
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: game was still in single digits for a bit, so... Yeah,
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: I actually prefer the Spurs in this game. It sounds
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: like something I wouldn't do, and I'm not actually going
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: to do it. And the money doesn't agree with it,
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: but I think that's how I would look in this game. 15.5, though, man,
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: that is a big number. 72% of the tickets are
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: on the Spurs, of course. They're going to be public.
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: 66% of the money, so professional money seems to be
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: taking Sacramento a little bit here. A lot of it
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: probably just because the number is so high, but I
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: think the spot is better for San Antonio, so I
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: would actually lean towards laying it with them. I'm disagreeing
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: with the market on numerous games here today, but yeah,
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: that's how I look at it. All right, then where
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: are we going? We could go hydration break here now,
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: and then I'm going to try to get through college
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: basketball somewhat fast, because there are still a lot of
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: uninteresting games in college basketball. We're still in the part
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: of the season where you have a lot of mismatches,
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: but I am going to give out one play in
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: college basketball. Yeah, let's do that after the break.
• 53:18
  Speaker 3: Bye.
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: All right. College basketball. Let's get into it, man. Okay.
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: Pretty big college basketball board, which, like I said, usually
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: college basketball is lighter on Friday once we get into
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: the regular season. Ivy League usually plays a lot. Ivy
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: League usually does a lot of back-to-backs Friday, Saturday, but
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: that's not the point that we're at here in the season.
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: We've got a lot of big games here. We do have...
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: TD Garden's got a... a couple of games going on
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: here today. I'm not going to these games and I
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: am going to a comedy show tonight. Tim Dillon's if
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: people are going to try to track me down and,
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: you know, hurt me for my bad picks recently, dude,
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to give you winners. I'm trying. I mean,
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: I'm dude, I'm losing. I'm probably losing more than any,
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: any of these haters. They might not even be putting
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: money on any of these. They just want to hate.
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: I'm a, I'm, How do you think I feel? I'm
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: actually losing on these games. Come on, man. I have
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: more at stake than you do, most likely. But yes,
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: TD Garden has a couple of games. It would be
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: fun to go to these games. I don't know if
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: you can get all these games at TD Garden on
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: one ticket, but UMass is playing BC in the Boston game,
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: which I guess I'll talk about just because I am
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: from Boston, although we can't bet this game in the
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: state of Massachusetts, so you kind of have to look... elsewhere,
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: let's say, if you really want to. I don't want
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: to in this game. But UMass is always going to
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: get up for a game against Boston College. The crowd
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: will be favoring Boston College in this game because they're
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: the big school here and it's in Boston, but still... UMass,
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: they're the little brother here. They treat this game like that,
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: and UMass isn't that bad of a basketball program, so
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: I think they can compete here. BC's not that good
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: of a team either. UMass is getting the money, 58%
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: of the tickets, 67% of the cash on them, and
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: BC is only a six-point favorite or so here, six
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: and a half, so yeah, I mean, people knowing that
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: BC's the bigger program. It looks a little bit easy,
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: I think, to lay those points with BC, so I'd
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: lean towards taking the points with UMass. UMass is 1-0.
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: They beat Troy in their opening game, which is a
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: pretty good win, actually. Troy made the tournament last year
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: and whatever. BC, not that impressive of a win over
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: Wagner in their first game, although when I see an
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: unimpressive win from the better team, I actually a lot
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: of times will look towards that team. In this case,
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: I don't really think so, though. I don't know. I
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: think UMass... this game just means more to them. So
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: that's the way I would look. Although I got the
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: other Boston game wrong with Northeastern and BU, but BC
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: is like, they're, they're the big dog. Like they're the
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: team that all the other Boston area teams want to
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: take down. You know what I mean? So that's just,
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: that's the way that it is. Even though they're a
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: down program, no more glory days for BC. And at
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: BC used to have a good basketball team. When I
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: was in high school and college, it was fun to
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: watch that team with like a Troy bell and, uh,
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: They had Jared Dudley. I mean, he had a decent
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: NBA career. Those guys were really good in college. And
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: when I was at high school, as I like to
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: bring up sometimes, going to some of those Boston College games.
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: BC had a guy named Jonathan Beerbomb, who was a center,
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure, on the team. He was a big
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: white guy, and he could dunk it and stuff. One
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: of the best names ever in college basketball, Beerbomb. That
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: was actually his name. Love that guy. Hell yeah. That
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: was BC basketball back in the early 2000s. I think
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: he probably was on the same team as Troy Bell,
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: I want to say. There was some overlap there, I think.
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: And then Dudley was a little bit after that. Dudley
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: was like when I was in college. But yeah, whatever.
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: BC made a couple of decent tournament runs, but whatever, man.
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: Northeastern is playing Virginia. I'll hit all the ranked teams
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: because whatever. This is on ACC Network at 5 p.m. Eastern.
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: The UMass BC game is at 4 p.m.
• 58:00
  Speaker 3: Eastern.
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: So yeah, the Boston Guided or TD Guided, excuse me,
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: not the old Boston Guided. The TD Guided replaced it
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: and got built next to it. T.D. Godden is hosting
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: multiple games today. Virginia ranked 9th in the country. I'm
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: not sure I'm totally sold on Virginia, though, being that good,
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: the 9th best team in the country. I mean, they
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: lost Tony Bennett, who was their long-term head coach, really
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: good head coach, and he always played that really, really
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: slow style. And Virginia still does play slow, although not
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: as slow as with him, since he stepped down. But
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: Virginia's still... I think they're still trying to get back
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: to their winning ways under their new coach now, you
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: know what I mean? After they had a little bit
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: of a lull. And I thought they were a little
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: bit overhyped going into the tournament last year, which is
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: why I had Tennessee beating them in my bracket. Well,
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: that and I thought Tennessee was the better team, too.
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: So I did get that right in my bracket. Virginia
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: may be taking another step forward this year. I don't
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: know if I'm sold, but I did overlook them in
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: my ACC preview quite a bit. I don't like them
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: in this game, though. they got Arkansas on deck that's
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: a bigger game I don't think they're gonna pay that
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: much attention to Northeastern here who had a really bad
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: season last year Virginia beat Drexel in their opening game Whatever.
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: No big deal. It wasn't a close game. Northeastern is
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: coming up with a bigger game for themselves, I guess,
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: against BU, where they took the loss. But I just
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: see Virginia possibly overlooking this game. And Virginia's still a
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: slow-paced team that you don't really want to lay points with.
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: Money seems to agree with Northeastern. 51% of the tickets,
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: 68% of the cash on them. They're a 34.5-point underdog.
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: The total seems way too high to me for a
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: Virginia game, though.
• 59:46
  Speaker 3: 162.5. Really?
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: Is that really right? What? That doesn't make sense to me.
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: Ken Baum, he's got Virginia actually as more of a
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: mid-tempo team now, so maybe that does make sense. I'm
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: so used to Virginia being one of the slowest teams
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: that you've ever seen. Maybe, I guess, with their current coach,
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: which I think is, is it Odom? Am I getting
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: that right? Ryan Odom, is he their coach now? I forget.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: Sometimes they get the coaches mixed up. Northeastern, I know,
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: does play fast, though, but I don't know. To me,
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: I think because Northeastern does want to go fast, I
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: still think Virginia kind of wants to grind them down
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: and slow the game down. So, I don't know. Those
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: are kind of my thoughts on that. I think I
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: would still probably take the points there, but don't have
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: a strong opinion there. I don't have strong opinions on
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: too many of these games, really. Eastern Washington and Oregon,
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: I eyed this game a little bit. Oregon, they beat Montana,
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: didn't play that well in the game against Montana. It
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: was close for a while until Oregon finally did have
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: a big lead on halfway through the second half and
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: put it away. But Oregon, they've been playing kind of
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: bad in these early season home games recently. Did that
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: put enough of a scare into Oregon to play better here? Possibly.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: But again, I think if Montana took them to the
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: wire or something like that, I'd be more inclined to
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: actually lay it with Oregon here. I still do lean
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: towards laying it with Oregon in this one. because that
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: wasn't the greatest effort there, and they may have still
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: gotten a scare because Montana was close to them in
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: the second half. Montana, they're one of the better teams
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: in their own conference, in the big sky at least,
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: but Oregon should be better than that. Oregon, new coach
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: this year, though, because Altman announced his retirement right before
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: the season. The new coach is somebody who was already
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: in the system, though, so the system is probably going
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: to stay the same here. Eastern Washington, though, this is
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: This is kind of why I lean more towards Oregon here.
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: Eastern Washington's coming off a big effort against Stanford in
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: a game where Eastern Washington was a big underdog in
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: that game, and they only lost by nine against Stanford,
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: so they played pretty well against Stanford, and that game
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: was fairly close down the stretch. So I think after
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: Eastern Washington put in a big effort there, sure, ideally
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: they'll want to get up for a game against Oregon too,
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: but two straight road games as a big underdog, that
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: could take its toll, man. You might... Fail by the
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: end of it was Oregon might have a little bit
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: more focus after they weren't great against Montana. So I
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: like Oregon in this game. They have 83% of the tickets,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: 85% of the money though. So the money. I mean,
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: it's hard to read. Oregon does kind of look public
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: to me. You're laying 16 and a half right now, basically,
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: if you want Oregon. But it did go up from
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: an opener of 15, so some money did come in
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: on the Oregon side, which I kind of think is
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: probably mostly professional money because I don't think the public
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: is getting involved enough in this game to drive this number. So, yeah,
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: I would lean towards laying the points with Oregon in
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: that one. And that one was on my radar today. Like,
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: that was one of the ones that was one of
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: my stronger opinions, but I still don't really want it.
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: Let's see here. We got Youngstown State and Ohio State
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: on the Big Ten, or on Big Ten Plus, excuse me.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: I would lean against Ohio State here. Ohio State's coming
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: up with a big game against BYU, although yes, they
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: did lose. I thought they'd put in a better effort there,
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: but Ohio State having to now come back from, I
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: believe that game was in Vegas, I want to say.
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: Now they're coming back from that. It is their home opener,
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: but Youngstown is definitely going to get up for this.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: Youngstown is, yeah, this is in Columbus. Youngstown is They're
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: a little brother in the state of Ohio, so this
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: is one of their biggest games of the season. I
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: thought Youngstown might be looking ahead to this already. I
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: thought they would drop that game in St. Bonaventure. They didn't.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: They won, but that kind of tells me something. Maybe
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: this Youngstown team, I already know they're one of the
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: better horizon teams, or at least I think they're going
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: to continue to be, but that's a pretty nice win
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: at St. Bonaventure. It's not that bad of a team,
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: and on the road with Ohio State looming on deck,
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: I thought Bonaventure would get that win. That didn't happen,
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: so that does show me something for Youngstown, and I
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: do think they're going to show up in this game,
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: whereas Ohio State might overlook them a little bit, even
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: though they're still trying to get their first win here.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: I would take the points in this one with Youngstown.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: Ohio State's a 25.5-point favorite here. Total's in the 150s,
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: so it's not low, but it's sort of a mid-range total,
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: I guess we could say, on this one. But yeah,
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: I would lean towards taking the points for those reasons.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: What else we got to really dive into here? Well,
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: I'll give you my play because that's where we're going
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: next here. In this Yale-UCF game, this will be my
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: only actual play I'm going to give out in basketball.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: We're treading a little bit lightly. I don't like the
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: fact that we're 2-2 to start the season of college basketball,
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: but let's ramp it up, man. We're going to lay
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: the points with UCF here in this one. Maybe this
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: one's a little bit more easy to stomach, but maybe
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: not because the public seems to like Yale. I mean,
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: they are still probably, I assume, the best team in
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: the Ivy. They were last year, even though they had
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: that ridiculous upset loss to get bounced off. in the
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: Ivy final. Yale has been the best team in the
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: Ivy for a few years now. They're a competitive team,
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: there's no doubt about that, and this is a fairly
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: competitive line, but I don't know, man. Yale going to
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: Orlando here, and Yale, they're coming off a nice win
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: over Howard. Howard is actually a decent team, even though
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: they're in one of the lesser conferences. Howard ran away
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: with their conference last year. It wasn't even close. They
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: dominated that conference. Like they were the only competitive team
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: in that conference and they completely dominated it. And then
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: they look pretty good winning their play in game as
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: well against UMBC. So I'm not going to say that
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: Yale is going to be in a letdown spot after that,
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: but I think UCF is going to be focused, which
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: I'll explain in a minute, but this could be a
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: little bit of a look ahead for Yale, even though
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: I know this is kind of a big game, you know,
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 1: it's against the power conference team, but it's, It's UCF.
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know if UCF has really established
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: themselves as a power conference team yet. I mean, they
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: were in the American for a while, I believe, or
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: something like that. And now they're in the Big 12.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're really still seen as a Big
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: 12 team, but you know who is?
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 3: Baylor.
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: And that's who Yale plays next. And Baylor has a
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: very good history as a basketball program. So I think
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: that game might be a game that Yale might actually
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: even almost sort of look ahead to here. So I'm
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: going to be leaning more towards UCF here in this one.
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: I think you're going to get a focused UCF team
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: at least. I'm not going to say Yale is going
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: to completely overlook this game, but it is going to
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: be their first true road game. It is in Orlando,
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: which is going to be kind of a weird spot
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: to have to go into. Not the bounce house UCF
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: football stadium, but still. I think you'll get a little
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: bit of a wild crowd here. UCF is coming off
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: a horrible effort against Florida Gulf Coast, though. That's why
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: I like UCF in this game. UCF was a 22.5
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: point favorite. I know Florida Gulf Coast, they made some noise,
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: as we know, at Dunk City back in the day
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: against Georgetown in the tournament there, and they won multiple
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: tournament games, but this is not Dunk City anymore. We're
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: not in Dunk City. That was over a decade ago.
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: Florida Gulf Coast, they're an okay team. They're one of
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: the better teams in their own conference, okay? That's what
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: I'll give them, but You know they got way up
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: to play UCF. They're a little brother in the state
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: of Florida, so you know Florida Gulf Coast got way
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: up for that game. But for UCF, as a 22.5
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: point underdog, almost losing the game and having to go
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: into overtime to win it, major escape. And you know,
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: I'm going to say it again, a big favorite, almost
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: losing the game, that's going to give them focus in
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: the next game because they know that they just escaped
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: in a game that they should have won way more easily.
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: So I think they're going to have a much better
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: effort here in this one, even though Yale is probably
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: a better team. I mean, they are definitely better than
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: Florida Gulf Coast, obviously. The line's 13 points different between
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: these two games. But, yeah, I expect UCF to step
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: it up better for this game. Now, I will say
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: I'm a little bit concerned by the fact that Florida
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: Gulf Coast out-rebounded UCF in this game. And UCF hit
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: 50% of their threes. So that's not great. If you
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: hit 50% of your threes, you still almost lose. But
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: UCF just doesn't take that many threes. And there is
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: one outlier that should go back in the direction of UCF,
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: and that's they were horrible from the free throw line.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: They took 38 free throws, and they only made 25
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: of them. So they're only 66% from the free throw line.
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: And I know this isn't the NBA. So NBA, the
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: free throw average is a lot higher than in college.
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: So in college, you will see teams that shoot below
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: 70 as a team but typically you're not going to
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: see that and I don't think you I don't think
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: that's what you're going to get from UCF so there
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: is a regression point there and UCF did lead the
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: majority of this game as they were supposed to although
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: they never really had a massive lead here they were
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: leading by double digits for almost the entire game act
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: or leading for almost the entire game but leading by
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: double digits for a big chunk of the second half
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: I should say And in overtime, they also had a
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: big lead in overtime and somehow let that slip too.
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I think after all that, after that scare,
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: I like UCF in this one and that. is what
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: we're going to do. The money is not agreeing with
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: me on this one either. 63% of the tickets on Yale,
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: 80% of the cash on them. I like UCF, though,
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: and Ken Baum, which I recommend buying because it's cheap
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: for the year. You get a lot of good statistics.
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: While his stats haven't had enough time to really flesh
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: out yet, he does have UCF, I believe, winning this
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: game by somewhere around 11 points. So the power ratings
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: seem to.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: The math guys should be agreeing with me on this too,
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: at least based on that, although they use a few
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: different sites. You could use Bart Torvik. I think he's
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: still free, but whatever. Yale might wind up being a
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: public underdog in this game by the time the game
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: tips off. I'm not so sure, but I like UCF
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: in this one based on the situation. So we will
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: lay 9.5 with UCF in that one. All right. Fanatics,
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: or I don't know if I'm allowed to say their name, actually.
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: Fanatics Merchandise, man. I will say, yeah, their merchandise and
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: their book, they're bad. I can't stand them. They're bad.
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: They're not a good company, dude. Their merchandise is bad quality,
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: and their sports book, I'm pretty sure they try to
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: screw you there. Occasionally, I find the best line there,
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: but I don't find myself finding the best line there
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: particularly often. They have 10.5 on this at what, at
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: plus money? You got to get more books, man. Yeah,
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, that book is terrible. Really, really, really bad.
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: What about the HR book that you have there? They
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: probably give you a better number than that, I would imagine.
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: We also have Holy Cross and Villanova, and I know
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: it didn't work out Fading Notre Dame the other day,
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: or yesterday, I think. Villanova is coming back from Rome,
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: so it is still a weird travel spot here after
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: that big game against Notre Dame and Rome. They have
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: to come back and play Holy Cross. And up next,
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to necessarily say Villanova is looking ahead
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: to this, but they do play one of their Philadelphia
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: little brothers next, which is LaSalle. LaSalle is a Philadelphia
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: little brother. That game means a lot more to LaSalle usually,
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: but that is Villanova's next game, so I could see
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: them definitely overlooking Holy Cross next. except that, you know, Villanova,
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: they lost as a favorite in their first game, so
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: they may still show up and try to get this game,
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: because they don't want to go 0-2 or anything, obviously.
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: They're not going to lose to Holy Cross, but it's
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: a matter of will they cover the spread here. I'm
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: going to lean towards Holy Cross as far as covering
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: the spread here. Villanova, it'll be, this is a holy
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: war of some kind, right? Both Christian schools, but yeah, Villanova,
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: I would lean towards Holy Cross getting a ton of
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: points here against Villanova. Holy Cross, they're like a 30-something
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: point dog. Where's this game? I can't search in page anymore,
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: although I could do this. There you go. 85% of
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: the tickets, 90% of the cash from Villanova. They're a 32.5
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: point favorite. They're going to be a public side, but
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: we'll see how they can handle the travel back from Rome.
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: It is a weird spot. Notre Dame was able to
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: handle it okay. We'll see, but I would take the
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: points with Holy Cross in that one if I was
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: going to do it. The local boys, Worcester, Holy Cross.
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: There you go. What do you mean book recommendation? Sports books?
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: I would get an account at every single book that
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: you have available to you. That is the recommendation. Whatever
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: is available in your state, get an account at every
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: single one of them. Then you find the best line.
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: I don't bet at one specific book. You know what
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: I mean? I'm going to take whatever the best number
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: is and whatever book has given it to me. So
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: it could be any number of books. But in Massachusetts,
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: we do have more books, though. We have DKFD. We
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: have the F book there. We have the M book
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: with the lion. We have the B book that is
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: the name of a gym, I think, or a spa,
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: whatever it is. We got the Roman emperor with the C.
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: We got a lot of them. We do have PP
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: as well here, but I don't really use that. And
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: we have the scoreboard operator that bought out the ESPN one.
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: We do have that book as well available here. But
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: I'm an MA, so we have a lot more books
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: because we're a degenerate state, man. So, you know. And also,
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: DK is located here. So, you know, that's also part
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: of it. I'm actually surprised that FD is available here
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: because DK... I think they're headquartered here pretty much in Boston.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: But both books are available here. All right. And then
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: we've had a couple of books that we lost, actually,
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: that used to be in existence here that went away,
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: which were, I'm trying to remember what the, one was Barstool,
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: but I think they got rid of their book completely.
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: And then I think they were losing money. I think
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 1: they were giving out some bad lines. And then we
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: also had the one that was associated with the Encore.
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: casino where I believe you can go in in person
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: you can make bets at the encore as well but
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: um that was uh that's owned by win I'm pretty
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: sure so I think we did have that book here
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: for a while but that no longer exists either uh
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: in your in your states in uh FL there uh
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: you could go in person and make bets although that's
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: annoying I know but uh I don't know if you
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: have like some casino there that gives you a better
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: number on this you could do that all right what
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: else do we have here I mean, if you want
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: me to talk about some of these other games, I can.
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: East Tennessee State at NC State kind of caught my
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: eye a little bit, which is at 7 p.m. on
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: ACC Extra. East Tennessee State is coming back from playing
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: in Arizona State against Randy Bennett in his debut at
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: his new school here, coaching Arizona State. Now he came
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: over from St. Mary's with his main guy from St. Mary's, Maroskis.
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: And East Tennessee actually played pretty well in this game.
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: They're one of the better teams in the SOCON and WIU.
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: Having to go travel out there, not an easy task
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: for them, and they played pretty well as a 19.5-point underdog.
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: They lost by 10, and they were somewhat hanging around
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: in this game. The game was within 10 points. It
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: was within six points with two minutes to go in
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: the game, so I think I would actually look to
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: fade East Tennessee off of that, even though this is
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: another game they should probably at least get up for
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: against NC State, but it's a matter of with the
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: travel and having a big performance there against Arizona State.
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: It's like, what will they have left in the tank
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: for this game against NC State? You know what I mean?
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 1: NC State's coming off an easy win over Campbell, so
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: they should at least have less fatigue coming into this game.
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: So I probably would lean towards laying this one with
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: NC State. This one doesn't make the cut for me either, though.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: Let me see. The money does heavily agree with that, though.
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: East Tennessee State, 60% of the tickets. NC State, 93%
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: of the money. They're a 17.5-point favorite overall. Yeah, I
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: would lean that way. I agree with the market in
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: that one. I would lay the points with NC State
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: in that one. Wofford in North Carolina. This one I
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: actually like the favorite in as well. North Carolina's coming
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: off a really bad effort against Western Carolina, who probably
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: got up for the game because it's a little brother
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: type of situation. I believe Western Carolina is in North Carolina,
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: I think. They might be in South Carolina. I think
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: they're in West Carolina. I think they're in North Carolina. UNC, though,
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: they're a 22.5-point favorite. While they're not a great team
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: right now, they still should have been able to win
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: this game. Ah, able. One of their best players. There
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: you go. They didn't play well in this game, though.
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: As a 22.5-point favorite.
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: This game was a tight game, dude, for a while.
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: This was a game that was within one score with
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: seven or eight minutes to go. It was still within
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: one score or two scores, really, with five minutes left.
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: And then UNC finally pulled away near the end. So
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: they got a scare here. So I like UNC in
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: this one. It's just a matter of Wofford might still
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: show up for this because Wofford, I think, is a
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: school in... South Carolina, I want to say. They'll still
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: get up for this game, too, so I don't quite
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: want to do this, but I would lean towards laying
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: the points with UNC in this one. Wofford, they just
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: got smacked by Tennessee in their first game. We know
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: Tennessee's good. Wofford, they weren't going to do anything in
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: that game, but they might, you know. They're still going
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: to try to get up for this game, but Wofford,
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: you know, you could argue they have two tough games
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: in a row here at the very least, even though
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: they did get annihilated in their first game. But the
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: money is actually backing Wofford, it seems here. UNC opened 23,
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: and they're already down to 19.5, or, well, 20, really,
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: or 21. Books have it kind of all over the place.
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: That is an interesting move. Like, the money has definitely
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: come in on Wofford here, so I'd be disagreeing with
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: the market in this one. 93% of the tickets on
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, 82% of the cash on them. So they're
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: very public with less of the money on them, but
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: I don't agree with the market in that one. It's
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: just what it is. I would lay the points with
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: North Carolina there. Marble Slayer, what's up, man? What books
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: give you the best bonuses? It's hard to say. I mean,
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: they're all somewhat similar. They all give you sign-up bonuses,
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: or they just give you money because they try to
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: get you hooked. It's all fairly similar, I would say.
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't think I have a great
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: opinion on that. It's been a while since I... They
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: might have changed it because I've been on these books
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: for a while so I don't even know if maybe
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: the bonuses have changed. I'm at a point where I just...
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: I don't use the bonuses really because a lot of
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: the bonuses are like you have to pick these specific
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 1: games and whatever and I'm like, yeah, I don't know.
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: That bonus is forcing me to make a play on
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: something I don't want to make a play on and whatever.
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, occasionally they give you free bets
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: and stuff like that so there is that. But the
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: other thing... is, though, if you're winning better, though, the
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: books will nuke you, pretty much. So yeah, I'm already limited.
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: The B book here, they have a problem with me. Yeah,
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: I'm definitely limited there.
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 5: So.
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: Just because I was putting winning bets in there. It's BS.
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man. I mean, it is what it is.
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: It's what the sports books do. It's bullshit, but that
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 1: is what they do. They will limit you. Well, that's
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: how they get around it because I think it's actually
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: illegal for them to ban you. The legal books, I
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: think it's illegal for them to actually ban you. It's like, oh,
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: we're not banning you. We're just limiting you to only
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: being able to bet a dollar. Yeah, thank you. That's
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: pretty much what some of these books are doing, which
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: is BS. You have to be aware of that. The
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: book's Are going to do that to you. The predictive
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: markets might not do that. Like you're talking about Kalshi.
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: I have not gotten into the predictive markets that much.
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: I admit. I do have accounts there. Kalshi and Polymarket.
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: And I've done a little bit with Novig. The Sidney
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: Sweeney book. I had to, man. The tits hooked me.
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: What can I say? That one... You know, I got
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: some bonuses for signing up there. I haven't gotten too
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: into using that yet. I don't know. No VIG. Their
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: thing is they don't put any VIG on any of
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: their plays. I don't know. How do they make money?
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: I'm not entirely sure because that's how books typically make
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: their money is charging you the VIG. So I don't
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: really get it there. I haven't dug into it too much,
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: but I do have an account there too. I mean,
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: I'm not opposed to using those places. The the predict
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: the predictive markets actually sometimes give you a better number
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: on some of these games so i'm not opposed to
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: it predictive markets yeah it's more it almost it's like
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: more of a stock market but really this is kind
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: of a stock market like you're for me i'm trying
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 1: to play on undervalued teams and play against overvalued teams
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: you know what i mean that's pretty much the name
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 1: of the game here all right uh i don't know
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: if that answered the question though um The VIG, which
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: it stands for, I forget what the full word is.
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: It's some longer name. it's the vigorous, I think is
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: what it is. Is that right? Yeah. I almost said vigorand.
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: I'm like, that's sorry. Yeah, the vigorous. Licorice. No. The
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: vig is the amount that the books charge you to
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: make the bet. So if you're betting a spread bet,
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: which is considered to be a 50-50 bet, essentially, the
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 1: books want to split the action 50-50 on that. But
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: for them to make money, they charge you 11 to
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 1: win 10. That's the minus 110 that you see on
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: the spread bet. That means you have to pay them
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: 110 to win 100 if you get the bet right.
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean? So to be a winning bettor,
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: you can't just beat 50-50. You got to beat like
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: 54% to overcome that extra that you're having to pay.
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: So they charge you extra. That's how the books make
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: their money. That's the vig, or if you want to
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: call it the juice. Although some people will argue with that.
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: Some people will say, well, the juice is only what
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: they put extra on top of the spreader. I'm like, yeah, whatever, man.
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: To me, it's the same thing. the vig, the juice,
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: whatever you want to call it. I hope that explanation
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: makes sense. That's what it is. It's what the books
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: charge you to make the bet, essentially. That's how they
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: make their money. And again, to profit, you have to
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: overcome that extra that they're charging you. All right, next
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: game I'll talk about St. Louis and Missouri. This is
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: an interesting one. It's on ESPNU, so you get to
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: watch this one. Robbie Avila is back. I think he's playing.
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: I don't know how many minutes he's going to play,
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: but I think he is back for St. Louis as
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 1: he had a weird trajectory where he started out with
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: Indiana State and people didn't really notice him there, although
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: I did because he's a Big white dude, even though
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: I guess he's Hispanic. I don't know, he looks white.
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, if you will, with his goggles. You guys
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: know who he is at this point. He's a big guy,
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 1: but he can hit threes and move around and whatever.
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: Really talented player. He played on Indiana State, then he
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: transferred to St. Louis, made a huge splash last year
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: because St. Louis was a really good team last year,
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: partially because he was there. Then they made the tournament.
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: They had one really good effort in the tournament, crushing
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: Georgia before they lost to Michigan. So everybody knows St.
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: Louis now, but Avila entered the NBA draft, or I
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: believe he did, because I know he either got drafted
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: or signed as an undrafted free agent by the Lakers,
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: but then he didn't make the Lakers team, so I
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 1: guess he was going to be in the G League
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: or something for them. I guess he didn't want to
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: do that and wait around and be another white guy
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 1: on the Lakers, by the way, pretty much. So he
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 1: filed an injunction, because I guess this is the new landscape, man,
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: where you can be on an NBA roster but then
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: still go back and play in college, even though this
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: guy's probably like 25 at this point. That's what he did.
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: He filed an injunction, or filed 401, I guess, and
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: he won yesterday. So he has a temporary... A temporary injunction,
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: I guess is what it is. Whatever it is, it's
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: going to allow him to play. And then I guess
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: he has to have more court proceedings later, but he
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: is allowed to play right now. And St. Louis is
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: actually allowed to add a roster spot. So they don't
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: even have to remove somebody from the team to add him,
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: which is even more insane. So I believe he is
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: on the roster, and I believe he will play, but
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: he hasn't really practiced yet, I don't think so. We'll see.
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: I don't know how much he's really going to play
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 1: in this game, but this is a big game for St.
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 1: Louis because Missouri is one of their big brothers in
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 1: the state of Missouri. This game is actually in St. Louis,
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: so I think this game is technically considered a neutral
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: site game. It's not on the campus of either team,
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: but it is in St. Louis' city, so that might
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 1: help St. Louis a little bit here. I expect there
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: to be fairly big crowds for both teams in this one.
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 1: Missouri has a bigger fan base in general, though. But
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: they're the big brother here.
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 2: St.
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: Louis always gets up for the game against their big brother. However, St.
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: Louis is, you know, they're not a team that's going
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: to take you by surprise anymore. You know what I mean?
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: So I'm not sure I'd really want to back them
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: in the little brother role here. Plus, they might get
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 1: a little bit overvalued here if people know that Avila
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 1: is coming back. And we don't know if he's going
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: to get a ton of minutes in this game or
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 1: not in his first game. He might because it's such
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 1: a big game, but maybe not. So that all remains
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: to be seen. Missouri's only two and a half point
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: favorite here, and When I first looked at them, I'm like,
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 1: that looks way too easy to take Missouri. Maybe it does,
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: and the public is still looking like they're on them
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: at 82% of the tickets on them. Although, actually, it
• 1:25:26
  Speaker 1: just changed. Oh, yeah, it just changed big time. 77%
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 1: of the tickets, well, no, not really. 77% of the
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: tickets on Missouri, 89% of the cash on Missouri. So
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: it looks like some of the money is on Missouri here.
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: I kind of lean Missouri in this game. I just
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: think that The Avila thing, to me, it seems like
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: almost a little bit of a distraction. It's like the
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: reverse injured player theory almost. When I talk about when
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: your star player comes back, he's got to kind of
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: get up to speed. A lot of times that team
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 1: gets a little bit overvalued in the market because of it,
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: and they don't gel again right away. You know what
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 1: I mean? Obviously, he's going to help their team in
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 1: the long run, but yeah, I don't know. I kind
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 1: of like Missouri in this one, although on the other hand,
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: it looks too easy to play the big boy here.
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: But then again, St. Louis made such a splash last year,
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: and they looked good in the tournament, scoring a ton
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: of points. I thought the public might have more of
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 1: a lean towards them in this game than it appears
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: that they do, so it's interesting. Maybe my gauge on
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 1: where the public goes in this game is a little
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: bit off, but Missouri didn't look good at all in
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: the tournament. People probably, they were in the tournament, I'm
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: pretty sure. They lost to Miami, I think, in the
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: first game. I think people don't even remember that, so... Yeah,
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: I think, to me, it seems like St. Louis is
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: the team that is going to get more of the
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 1: hype here. So I kind of like Missouri in that
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 1: one to try to quell the hype, you know what
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, and prove that they're still the bigger brother.
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: But that is a close line, dude. That is really close.
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: So the oddsmakers don't think Missouri is that good this year,
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: even though they're an SEC team. And they do respect St.
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: Louis a lot. Like, this is a St. Louis team
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 1: that may wind up being in the rankings again this year,
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean? they're going to be probably
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: the favorite to win the A-10 again this year, which
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 1: they actually didn't. They actually got into the tournament with
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: an at-large bid last year, but they actually got knocked
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: out of their conference tournament. Their conference tournament's tough to
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 1: get through. They lost to some lesser team, I think.
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 1: I forget who it was. And then VCU wound up
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: winning the tournament. VCU was a pretty strong team, though,
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: still as well.
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: What else we got here to talk about? Troy and
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 1: Florida State have been interesting. Florida State, they got a
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 1: pretty major look ahead to Florida coming up. That's a
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 1: monster game against Florida, one of their main rivals. It's
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 1: their big brother, really, in the state of Florida, and
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: it's the number one team in the country, which may
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 1: actually even be accurate. If you wanted to tell me
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: Florida is actually the best team in the country, I
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 1: would not really be able to argue with you about that.
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 1: They may very well be. I think Ken Baum has
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 1: them at worst. I think he has them number two
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: right now. I think he has them and Duke at
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: the top. Actually, let me make sure. Yeah, correct. That
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: is correct.
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 1: But anyway, yeah, that's a huge look-ahead spot. Florida State
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 1: just annihilated one of their little brothers, Florida A & M,
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 1: which putting up 112 points in a college basketball game
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: is definitely impressive. Troy, I mean, we know they made
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 1: the tournament last year. Troy, I think they're in more
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: of a bounce back spot. They're coming off a loss
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: at UMass. Troy was a favorite in this game although
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: only two and a half. UMass isn't that bad, but Troy,
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 1: you know, a home loss like that, I think it
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: was at home in the Sunbelt Mac Challenge. They could
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 1: have been looking ahead maybe because Florida State's a big boy,
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean? I like Troy in this game.
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: I think it's a bad spot for Florida State. The
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 1: look ahead spot at the very least. This game is
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 1: not on my card or anything, but This is one
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 1: of the games I like more, though, than most of
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: the other ones. Let me see. Troy, they look public,
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 1: or slightly, which makes no sense. 55% of the tickets
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: on them, 52% of the cash. Florida State's up to
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 1: a 23.5 point favorite, up from 20.5. But I seriously
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 1: doubt the accuracy of those numbers, though. Like, I think
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: there's no way Florida State won't be public here. Like...
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 1: They're 1-0, and they just put up a ton of points,
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: and they're the big name here. And Troy's 0-1, so
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: there's no way the public's on Troy here. I would
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 1: not imagine. But yeah, I would take the points with
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: Troy if I was going to take this. Although Florida
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 1: State is a bit more of a fast-paced team. It's
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: not that low of a total, around 160. Troy might
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: be able to ugly the game up and slow it down, though. Alright,
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 1: let's try to get through the rest of these. Still
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: have to talk about college football. We have number 20, Alabama,
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: hosting Arkansas State. I'm just hitting the ranked teams here.
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 1: I don't have a whole lot on this game. Alabama
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 1: doesn't really have any big games surrounding this one. Arkansas
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 1: State is 1-0. They did win their Sunbelt Mac Challenge
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 1: game against Toledo. Reasonable win there. Toledo, you know, they're
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: not as good in basketball as they are in football, though.
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: They got a sub up in class to play Alabama.
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think the way to look at this
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 1: game is probably just that Alabama is probably going to
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 1: be overvalued in the market because they're Alabama and I
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: don't like their defense so that is that's the way
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: that it is although Alabama why don't I see this
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 1: oh here it is um Alabama's super public, 91% of tickets,
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: 92% of the cash on them, 25.5% is the number.
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: I'd probably lean towards Arkansas State. Arkansas State's actually a
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 1: decent team, and I think they were actually maybe the
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 1: best team in the Sun Belt last year, even though
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 1: they didn't win the conference. Maybe they're not the same
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 1: team this year, but Arkansas State's an interesting team, and
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: I think they do like to play fast, like Alabama does,
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 1: although Alabama plays super fast. But Arkansas State will be
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 1: willing to run with them in this game, so they
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 1: won't be thrown out of their element. But that's kind
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: of the problem if you want to take points here.
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 1: This is going to be a higher scoring game, so
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 1: that is the problem. It makes it easier for the
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: favorite to cover if it's going to be a way
• 1:31:10
  Speaker 1: higher scoring game. You could look at the over in
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 1: this game. This seems stylistically like the over is definitely
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 1: a way to play this game. The total is really high, 176.
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: It's gone up three points already. Money, you know, looks
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 1: like the ticket percentage looks like it's way on the under.
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 1: Maybe the I don't know if the public's really coming
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 1: in on an under here, but they might be looking
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 1: at this number thinking it's way too high or something.
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 1: For this particular game, I don't think so. I mean,
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 1: Alabama's one of the fastest teams in the country. They
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 1: don't really defend that well. Arkansas State plays a similar
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 1: style to that. So, yeah, I see points in this game.
• 1:31:45
  Speaker 1: So maybe that's, even though I would slightly lean Arkansas State,
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 1: I don't have a great read on the side on
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 1: this game. But, yeah, I think playing this game over
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 1: makes a lot of sense, though. So that might be
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 1: the better way to play that game. Let me see.
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: What else we got here? As I try to run
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: through this, well, of course, we've got to talk about
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 1: the big game of the night, which is at TD
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: Garden on TNT at 8 p.m. And like I said,
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 1: I'm going to be at a comedy show during this game.
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 1: I was considering going to this game, but, you know,
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's an interesting game. Number four, UConn, and
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 1: number 16, Michigan. It is the big game of the day, really,
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 1: because it is the championship rematch. And, you know, I
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 1: gave you guys a play against UConn in their last game,
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 1: and Gardner-Webb just snuck under those better numbers there. I
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 1: thought UConn was going to be in a look-ahead spot.
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 1: I thought they wouldn't put enough of an effort to
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 1: really cover that number against Gardner-Webb, although they almost still did.
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 1: But this is the big game for UConn. This is revenge.
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 1: We all know UConn lost the championship to Michigan. That's
• 1:32:46
  Speaker 1: a big deal. They're going to remember that game. You
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 1: know they've had this game circled since then. They're going
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: to show up and want to win this game. Now,
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 1: things have changed, of course, because Michigan, a couple of
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 1: their best players joined the NBA. Lendeborg, Morrow, whatever, they're gone.
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 1: Michigan's having to rebuild here. Michigan lost their coach, May,
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: to the NBA, to the Mavs. So this is a
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: new Michigan team. They're ranked 16th in the country right now,
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 1: but I think they might be a little bit overrated, actually.
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 1: It's 16. We talked about that in the season preview
• 1:33:15
  Speaker 1: where I thought the odds on Michigan might be undervaluing
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 1: them a little bit because they're... The odds makers were
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 1: saying they were going to take a big step back,
• 1:33:23
  Speaker 1: but the odds makers are lower on Michigan than the
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 1: rankings makers are, and I would trust the odds makers
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 1: more than the rankings makers. So I think Michigan is
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 1: probably not actually the 16th best team. I think Ken
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 1: Palm probably has them somewhere around the high 20s, which
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 1: still isn't bad, but they're going to take a step
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 1: back this year. UConn, I think, is also overranked, though,
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: at number four. Ken Palm, I think, has them probably
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 1: somewhere in the 11 range or something like that. UConn,
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 1: they're a slowdown team. They're a really good defense. They're
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 1: not quite that good on offense, though. But Michigan, it
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 1: kind of remains to be seen what they're even going
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 1: to be this year. Michigan was great on both sides
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: of the ball last year. But again, they're going to
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: be a little bit of a different team this year.
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 1: And you can see that reflected in the number, too, because,
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 1: of course, UConn was the underdog in the championship game.
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 1: And I think they were about, what, like a seven-point
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 1: underdog or so in that championship game. I gave it
• 1:34:15
  Speaker 1: a play on Michigan in that game, I'm pretty sure.
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 1: and they covered it for us in that game, but
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 1: now the roles have completely reversed, and UConn is now
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 1: the favorite. They opened six and a half, and now
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 1: they're seven and a half, and the money seems to
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 1: kind of be backing them, even though they look a
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 1: little bit public as well. The public, I mean, you'd
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 1: think the public would be a little bit leery to
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 1: be on UConn, because they remember last year, and that
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 1: might be what they're looking at. That would be what
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 1: I think they might be looking at, but They're also
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 1: probably looking at the rankings and be like, oh, something
• 1:34:45
  Speaker 1: must have changed because the rankings makers are telling us
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 1: UConn's a better team. Whatever it is, we have 72%
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 1: of the tickets on UConn, 81% of the cash on them.
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 1: The number did go up from 6.5 to 7.5. I
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 1: think I would probably lay it if I was going
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 1: to play this game. I don't really think I want to.
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 1: I don't love laying points with UConn because they're a
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 1: slowdown team. They're not as good in the favorite role
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 1: as they are in an underdog role.
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 3: But.
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: Well, I think both teams are undervalued. UConn does have
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 1: more returning production, and they're kind of the more proven commodity. Plus,
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 1: this is the revenge game for them, so I expect
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 1: UConn to be the team that wants this game a
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 1: bit more. Michigan is coming off a not-as-good performance against Oakland,
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 1: but Oakland is a better team than Gardner-Webb, though. UConn's
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 1: first opponent was Gardner-Webb. Oakland, of course, also got up
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 1: for that game against Michigan, like I mentioned, because Oakland
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 1: is in Michigan so that was an in-state little brother
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 1: situation there yeah so that lined up well for for
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 1: Oakland Michigan had the look ahead to this game as
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 1: well so unfortunately that was not on my card because
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure Oakland covered in that one fairly easily
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 1: if I remember correctly But in this game, yeah, I'm
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 1: still going to lean towards UConn, even though they may
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 1: have looked like the somewhat better team in their first
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 1: game just because they had more of a blowout win.
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 1: It was against a much worse opponent, though. But the
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 1: other thing I will mention is UConn is going to
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 1: have a huge crowd base here in the TD Garden,
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 1: and I know that because, well, I mean, it's obvious
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 1: because UConn's, like, they've become the New England team, which
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 1: pisses me off. Another reason to root for BC because
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 1: I can't stand UConn and, Like, whatever, man. They're Connecticut.
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 1: That's not Massachusetts. I don't know. Connecticut's kind of a
• 1:36:29
  Speaker 1: snobby state. I'm sorry, but it is what it is. But, yeah,
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 1: I'm not a fan of UConn. I'm not a fan
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 1: of Hurley. I was never a fan of Calhoun and
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 1: what they were doing there. I've always been kind of
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 1: an anti-UConn guy. But what I can tell you is
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 1: I went to the East Regional March Madness Games in
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 1: the tournament two years ago, whatever it was. The year
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 1: that UConn made that dominant championship run, It might have
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 1: been the year before that. I don't know. It was
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 1: the year where they played San Diego State and Illinois
• 1:36:58
  Speaker 1: in the two games. I was at Sweet 16 and
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 1: then Elite 8. But what I can tell you, being
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 1: at the TD Garden for those games, it was at
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 1: the TD Garden that year. UConn had a massive crowd
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 1: base there. It was like a home game for UConn.
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 1: So I think it's basically going to be that here.
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 1: I think the best comparison to this would be the
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 1: Elite 8 game that I was at UConn was against
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 1: Illinois in that game. Illinois had a decent crowd base there,
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 1: but I would say it was like 80% UConn, and
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 1: I would expect this to be similar to that here. Like,
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 1: Michigan does have a good crowd base around the country,
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 1: probably actually better than Illinois', but I still expect this
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 1: crowd to be at least like 70% UConn. So I
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 1: think UConn is going to have a home advantage here
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 1: in this game as well because of that. They'll have
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 1: the crowd advantage there, so... which might be heavier than
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 1: people might think. But yeah, the game's in Boston. So yeah,
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 1: I would lean towards UConn there, laying the points in
• 1:37:51
  Speaker 1: that one. Southern Miss at number 18, Iowa State. As
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to get done with the show, man, long
• 1:37:57
  Speaker 1: show today. Iowa State's coming off a loss to Memphis.
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 1: I kind of think they're going to bounce back here,
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 1: even though, yeah, Memphis, I mean, they're a decent opponent
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 1: to have to face, but still, Iowa State was a 15.5-point
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 1: favorite in that game. And Iowa State may be overrated
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 1: coming into the season because they lost Mamseilovic, one of
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 1: their best players, to the transfer portal. He's on Kentucky now.
• 1:38:19
  Speaker 1: So maybe Iowa State's not as good as we expect
• 1:38:23
  Speaker 1: them to be here now. I think they're better than this, though.
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 1: Their loss is a 15.5-point favorite. This looks like a
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 1: bounce-back spot to me for Iowa State, so I would
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 1: lean their way in this game. Southern Miss is coming
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 1: off an easy win over Tougaloo, a non-Division I team, which, yeah,
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 1: that's fine. I mean, that'll give them some confidence, some
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 1: momentum coming into this, but I would rather have Iowa
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 1: State in this one, minus the points, although you're having
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 1: to lay a huge amount of points here. in this
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 1: one if you really want to do it. I don't
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 1: even know why I don't see it here. Oh, here
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 1: it is. I don't know. I'm blind now. Iowa State
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 1: looks like they are kind of getting the money, 75%
• 1:38:57
  Speaker 1: of the tickets, but 90% of the cash on them.
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 1: You've got to lay 30.5 with them, though, and the
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 1: total's low at 144.5, so expect it to be kind
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 1: of a slower game, a low-scoring game, and that's not
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 1: what you want when you're going to lay a ton
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 1: of points like that, so that's not going to make
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 1: the cut for me, but I'd lean towards laying it
• 1:39:17
  Speaker 1: with Iowa State, but Lower scoring game is going to
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 1: make it difficult for them to actually get it done,
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 1: but I do think it's a bounce back spot for them.
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 1: All right. Let's try to get through the rest of
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 1: these games. Most of these other games didn't really have
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 1: much interest to me. I would say you could lean
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 1: towards Oklahoma, kind of similar to what I just said
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 1: with Iowa State. Oklahoma is coming off that notorious upset
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 1: loss to East Texas A & M. And by the way,
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 1: I was wrong yesterday. Rice, good thing I stayed off
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 1: that one because Rice did not cover, didn't even win
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 1: against East Texas A & M. East Texas A &
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 1: M off the monster upset, pulled off another mild upset
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 1: win yesterday. Ridiculous. But Oklahoma off of that bad upset
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 1: loss is like a 29-point underdog. You got to think
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 1: they're going to be focused here, and I think they're
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 1: just going to show up and just win this game
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 1: by a huge amount. They're playing Mississippi Valley State, who
• 1:40:10
  Speaker 1: is notorious for being the worst team in Division I
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 1: basketball every single year. Out of 368 teams, literally the
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 1: worst every year. It looks like a big number here,
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 1: but if you're going to cover this number against anybody,
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 1: it's going to be a team like Mississippi Valley State.
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 1: While this is a big game for them, they get
• 1:40:27
  Speaker 1: to play Oklahoma, one of the big boys here. They
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 1: haven't even played yet, Mississippi Valley State, so I think
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 1: that's actually bad. That means they have to come into
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 1: this game cold. I much prefer Oklahoma having a game
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 1: under their belt and a bad game, so they have
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 1: a game under their belt to get the rhythm down,
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 1: the nerves out of the way, whatever. They played horribly.
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 1: I would lay the points with Oklahoma in this one,
• 1:40:48
  Speaker 1: and Mississippi Valley State might come in cold and have
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 1: no offensive rhythm. It is supposed to be a lower
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 1: scoring game here, though, so laying 39.5 obviously doesn't look great,
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 1: but This is a, you know, this Mississippi Valley State team,
• 1:41:04
  Speaker 1: there's the possibility that they don't even score 30 in
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 1: this game. You know what I mean? So there is
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 1: that possibility, but you do have to lay 41 and
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 1: a half with Oklahoma. Now it's up from 39 and
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 1: a half. They have 80% of the tickets, but 90%
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 1: of the money on them. The money looks like it
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 1: has come in that way, agreeing with me on laying
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 1: the massive point spread here. Totals really not high though.
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 1: 140 is 148 and a half. Makes it really difficult
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 1: to really get over that huge number of 41 and
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 1: a half, 42. You know, I mean, the other way
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 1: you could play this game is to take Mississippi Valley
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 1: State under their team total. I don't do a whole
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 1: lot with team totals, but because they haven't played yet,
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 1: their offensive rhythm might be way off. Oklahoma, I think,
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 1: is a better defensive team than offensive team. They should
• 1:41:49
  Speaker 1: be focused here, which does mean refocusing on defense. So
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 1: that might be the way to play this. It's going
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 1: to be a low number for sure, but Mississippi Valley
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 1: State under their team total. May actually make more sense
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 1: than anything else here. Let me see what we have for...
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 1: What is the number going to be on that? Hang on.
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 1: I'm just curious, even though I know this show is
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 1: taking me a while here. Let me see. Just too
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 1: much stuff to talk about, man. Where are you, Oklahoma?
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 1: Hold on, I'm looking. I know where they are geographically,
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 1: at least. It looks like there's no team total even
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 1: listed on this game, so books might not even have that.
• 1:42:24
  Speaker 1: So I don't really know exactly what the number will be.
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 1: It'll be low, though, if you do find that number
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 1: out there. But that might be a way to play
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 1: that game that makes more sense than anything else. All right.
• 1:42:38
  Speaker 1: Next game up is that I want to talk about.
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 1: I'm skipping some of these games. We can talk about
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 1: the ACC Network game. Wagner is at Miami, number 14, Miami.
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 1: Miami coming up a big game, though, like a game
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 1: that they got up for, for sure, and they lost
• 1:42:52
  Speaker 1: to Florida yesterday. They could be hung over a bit
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 1: after that game. That was a huge game, a very
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 1: hyped game. They didn't win. They didn't cover. They lost
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 1: by 10, but still a huge effort game where maybe
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 1: they're going to be a little bit flat coming into
• 1:43:03
  Speaker 1: this game against Wagner. Up next, they got North Florida,
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 1: which isn't great, but it is another Florida team. Wagner
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 1: I mean I think Wagner is going to try to
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 1: slow the game down whatever they did have an ugly
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 1: game against BC in their first game now they got
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 1: to travel down to Miami they're at least going to
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 1: battle test themselves with three power conference teams in a
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 1: row with UConn after this but it's going to be
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 1: a huge number on the Miami side here which is
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 1: 33 it's up to 38 and a half basically from
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 1: 33 and a half I don't see the percentages on
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 1: this at all but I think I would take the
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 1: points with Wagner it is a low total here in
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 1: the 140s as well so Makes more sense to take
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 1: the underdog when it's a low total, and I'm already
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 1: leaning that way with Miami possibly in a hangover sort
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 1: of game there. I'd take the points with Wagner if
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 1: I was going to play that one. Middle Tennessee is
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 1: having to go to Allen Fieldhouse to No. 17 Kansas
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 1: on ESPNU. I was high on Kansas coming into the season.
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 1: I think they might be a little bit underrated right now.
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, they've been down the last couple years. They
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 1: did get Trey Kaufman ran in the– transfer portal we
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 1: don't know much about them yet because they just beat
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 1: Fordham easily but the problem is they got Kentucky on
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 1: deck that's a big game against a ranked Kentucky team
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 1: so they may look ahead to that and UNLV after
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 1: that is a decent basketball team as well so it
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 1: is possible Kansas looks right past Middle Tennessee here so
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 1: the lean might still be towards Middle Tennessee even though
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 1: I kind of like Kansas this year and they might
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 1: be under ranked as opposed to what they are Middle
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 1: Tennessee has a win under their belt where they scored
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 1: a lot against a non-Division I team, but at least
• 1:44:36
  Speaker 1: a decent sign that they were able to put up
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 1: a bunch of offense, though, so they have a little
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 1: bit of momentum here. Where is this game? Why don't
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 1: I see this game? Can I look up Middle Tennessee? Maybe, yeah,
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 1: there it is. Ridiculous. You can't search. They changed their
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 1: layout here, so you can't search for text in the
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 1: middle of this widget anymore here or the screen, whatever.
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 1: 73% of tickets, 93% of the cash on Kansas, though,
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 1: so the money... Appears to be back in Kansas, even
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 1: though they are a public side as well. 30.5 is
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 1: what the number's up to here. Middle sort of total
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 1: here in the 150s, but yeah, I would take the
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 1: points with middle Tennessee in that one. Omaha is going
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 1: to BYU, excuse me, number 25 BYU. The issue for
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 1: Omaha here is playing in high elevation might be a
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 1: problem for them, and I think both of these teams
• 1:45:24
  Speaker 1: like to play fast, typically, so it's a bit of
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 1: a higher total as well for that reason in the 160s,
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 1: but I'm going to be leaning towards Omaha, getting the
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 1: points here, but I don't love it as much with
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 1: a higher total. Plus, going into high elevation for a
• 1:45:37
  Speaker 1: team that's not necessarily used to it might be a
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 1: little bit of a problem. BYU coming off a nice
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 1: season opening win against Ohio State. And up next, they
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 1: got Queens, who's, you know, normally I wouldn't say that's
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 1: a look ahead, but Queens is getting all this hype
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 1: right now, man, because they score a ton and they
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 1: play fast. They just don't play defense. But Queens getting
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 1: a ton of hype, although... I think they're playing today, actually.
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 1: They're a big underdog. Maybe I'll talk about that game, too.
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 1: I think they're going to lose, though, today. But, yeah, BYU, yeah,
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 1: it is possible you could argue that's a look ahead
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 1: to Queens. Shout out to Grant Leonard wearing all the
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 1: ugly sweaters, Queens coach. He actually follows me on Twitter.
• 1:46:15
  Speaker 1: I keep thinking how hilarious it would be if he.
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 1: It would be awesome if he gets a big job,
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 1: like a job at a bigger basketball program. That would
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 1: be amazing. I'm like, holy shit, this guy's following me
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 1: on Twitter. Yeah, that would be wild, dude. I love
• 1:46:30
  Speaker 1: that guy's ugly sweaters. I love his vibe. I think
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 1: he's a good coach, but he's got to get them
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 1: better on defense, man, because their defense is real bad.
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 1: But whatever, we're talking about BYU and Omaha here. Omaha,
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 1: I think, also is a team that is a better
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 1: offensive team than defensive team.
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 3: But.
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 1: I still think I'd prefer them in this game with
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 1: BYU coming off that big game at the very least
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 1: against Ohio State, although 70% of tickets, 95% of the
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 1: cash on BYU, 32.5% is the number. Money seems to
• 1:47:00
  Speaker 1: prefer BYU there, but I don't. I would lean towards
• 1:47:03
  Speaker 1: Omaha in that one. We have Idaho and Colorado State
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 1: on YouTube, which might mean it's the Field of 68 channel,
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 1: something like that. I don't know, but Colorado State's coming
• 1:47:13
  Speaker 1: off a bad effort against Montana State, even though I
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 1: don't know how good Colorado State really is. They're in
• 1:47:18
  Speaker 1: the new Pac-12 now. But Montana State, you know, a
• 1:47:22
  Speaker 1: lesser conference team, a big Sky team coming in and
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 1: coming to within 10 of them, although the spread was
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 1: only 10 and a half, but this game was... Pretty
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 1: ugly for Colorado State. It was a close game pretty
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 1: much throughout the whole game, so they didn't exactly play
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 1: that well. They did pull away a little bit towards
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 1: the end, but I think Colorado State may refocus a
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 1: little bit here, so I think I'd prefer to lay
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 1: the points with them in this one against Idaho, who's
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 1: coming off an easy win themselves against a non-Division I team,
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 1: but I think I'd rather have the better team here,
• 1:47:51
  Speaker 1: Colorado State, in what may be a refocused spot after
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 1: that bad effort in the first game. They're a 16.5
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 1: point favorite. They're very public, though. 88% of the tickets,
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 1: 92% of the cash on them. The number dropped from 17.
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 1: It's a somewhat lowish total, around 150. Money looks like
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 1: it did kind of fade Colorado State here, though, coming
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 1: towards Idaho. But I kind of like Colorado State laying
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 1: the points in that one. I'll talk about Queens. They're
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 1: going to Oklahoma State, which is why they're a big
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 1: underdog here. I think Queens certainly takes their first loss here.
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 1: Everyone's hyping them up, and the money went way against me.
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 1: I liked Loyola Marymount in that game against Queens. Queens
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 1: having to go all the way to the West Coast,
• 1:48:31
  Speaker 1: and that was a bye game for Loyola Marymount. Not B-Y-E,
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 1: not a bye. They get to take it off, although
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 1: it looks like maybe they did mentally because they lost
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 1: that game. But what a bye game is is B-U-Y.
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 3: It means.
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 1: A bigger school pays a smaller school to play them.
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 1: A lot of times that's how it works. That's how
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 1: you'll get a smaller school to play you. So for
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 1: the bigger school, the idea is they get a win
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 1: on their resume pretty much. But for the smaller school,
• 1:49:00
  Speaker 1: they get money and they get battle tested by playing it.
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 1: But I think it's stupid because for the bigger school,
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 1: you're putting yourself at risk. You know what I mean?
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 1: Like the risk that you'll lose that game. Yeah, Loyola
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 1: Marymount lost that game. But they were an eight and
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite when I talked about it on
• 1:49:14
  Speaker 1: the show. And I actually liked the idea of laying it.
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 1: And then the line plummeted all the way down to
• 1:49:18
  Speaker 1: like four and a half. I'm like, you gotta be
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 1: kidding me. So I'm like, well, it's a good thing
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 1: I laid off of that game. I thought it'd be
• 1:49:24
  Speaker 1: a difficult spot for Queens after a high scoring win
• 1:49:27
  Speaker 1: against Winthrop to go all the way to the Pacific coast.
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 1: Looked like a Loyola Marymount spot. And that's not what happened. Queens,
• 1:49:34
  Speaker 1: they got all the money and they won the game.
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 1: So the professional bettors were right. Now of all that. Yeah,
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 1: they'll get up for this game against Oklahoma State, but
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 1: Queens is hyped right now. So Oklahoma State may take
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 1: them seriously because of all the hype. Queens does play
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 1: BYU next, which is a ranked team. So maybe there's
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 1: the possibility of a look ahead here. You wouldn't think
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 1: they would overlook another power conference team here. Maybe they won't.
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State, we don't know much about what they are
• 1:50:01
  Speaker 1: right now. They beat Incarnate Word in their first game,
• 1:50:03
  Speaker 1: who also lost a pie game. I don't know how
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 1: Incarnate Word, how they're able to pay teams to play
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 1: them I don't know how that works. It makes no sense.
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 1: Why would Incarnate Word have to pay anybody to play them?
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 1: They suck. I have no idea. Anyway, I kind of
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 1: like the favorite in this one. I kind of like
• 1:50:26
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State. I just think the hype on Queens is
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 1: kind of crazy, even though I love Grant Leonard, their coach.
• 1:50:31
  Speaker 1: I root for them. Uh, but they look like they're
• 1:50:34
  Speaker 1: a super public underdog. Believe it or not. Queens is
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 1: getting so much hype here. 93% of tickets, 94% of
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 1: the cash on them. Everybody loves this Queens team right now.
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 1: They're scoring a ton. Oh my God. They're an 18
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 1: point underdog here. Look at the total to one 78
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 1: and a half. That is so insane. Um, so, you know,
• 1:50:52
  Speaker 1: probably the over makes sense in this game as well. Um,
• 1:50:56
  Speaker 1: When the total's that high, you don't want to be
• 1:50:58
  Speaker 1: on an under. And my Queens, they play really fast.
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 1: They score a ton, and they play absolutely zero defense.
• 1:51:03
  Speaker 1: And I'm guessing, based on the total, that Oklahoma State
• 1:51:06
  Speaker 1: also is a fast-paced team. So probably the over makes
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 1: sense here. I also like the favorite, and those... tend
• 1:51:13
  Speaker 1: to correlate, you know, because at least if it's a
• 1:51:16
  Speaker 1: high-scoring game, it makes it easier for the favorite to
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 1: cover a big number. The number's not really that big
• 1:51:21
  Speaker 1: at 18.5, but again, the public, 94% of tickets now
• 1:51:24
  Speaker 1: and cash on Queens. That's crazy, dude. Public seems like
• 1:51:28
  Speaker 1: they like Queens here. This is Queens in North Carolina
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 1: is where they're located, by the way. Not New York,
• 1:51:33
  Speaker 1: but either way, they have to play in Oklahoma for this,
• 1:51:36
  Speaker 1: in Stillwater, so maybe a tough spot for them here.
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 1: Public looks like they're all over this 2-0 team that
• 1:51:43
  Speaker 1: scores a lot, getting a ton of points. But the
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers are telling you, you know, I mean, Queens, they're
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 1: going to be in the running to win their conference again.
• 1:51:51
  Speaker 1: There's no doubt about that. But the hype has gotten
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 1: a little bit crazy on this team. Their defense just
• 1:51:56
  Speaker 1: isn't good enough. So, yeah, I would lay the points
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 1: with Oklahoma State in that one. Oklahoma State's still a
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 1: considerably better team. Then we have Cal State, Northridge, and
• 1:52:04
  Speaker 1: Kansas State. Yeah, I mean, I'm talking about a lot
• 1:52:07
  Speaker 1: of college basketball here. Unfortunately, it's taken me a while,
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 1: but hopefully you guys appreciate all the info. Hopefully it's good.
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 1: I like Kansas State in this one, even though they
• 1:52:15
  Speaker 1: look like they're a very down program right now. Even
• 1:52:19
  Speaker 1: though their power conference team, Kenbaum has them about 120th
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 1: in the country, which is not good, obviously. Cal State
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 1: Northridge is... Obviously below them, but not that far below them, really.
• 1:52:31
  Speaker 1: I think they're probably in the 180s. But Cal State
• 1:52:33
  Speaker 1: Northridge just had a decent performance against Wichita in Wichita.
• 1:52:36
  Speaker 1: They were double-digit underdogs in that game. They lost by 13,
• 1:52:40
  Speaker 1: but it was close. I almost said the fourth quarter. No,
• 1:52:43
  Speaker 1: in the second half. We only play halves here. But
• 1:52:46
  Speaker 1: after Cal State Northridge put up a big effort in
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 1: that game, sure, ideally they're going to get up for
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 1: a game against a power conference school, now Kansas State, but...
• 1:52:55
  Speaker 1: Cal State and Northridge having to put in a big effort,
• 1:52:57
  Speaker 1: two games in a row here, both on the road,
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 1: although at least for them, they're staying in the Midwest,
• 1:53:02
  Speaker 1: or I don't know, whatever you want to call it here,
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 1: the central area. the center of the country, the Plains.
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 1: Kansas State, though, they had a bad loss in their
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 1: first game to South Dakota State. South Dakota State is
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 1: probably one of the better teams in the summit because
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 1: they usually are, but that was a bad loss for
• 1:53:18
  Speaker 1: Kansas State. Dude, 11.5 point favorite in this game, and
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 1: they lost the game. You gotta think they're gonna refocus
• 1:53:24
  Speaker 1: after that and be in bounce-back mode, and I know...
• 1:53:27
  Speaker 1: They're not a very good team this year, Kansas State,
• 1:53:29
  Speaker 1: but they're still better than their opponent here against Northridge,
• 1:53:33
  Speaker 1: even though Northridge has been one of the somewhat better
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 1: teams in the Big West recently. I think that's what
• 1:53:39
  Speaker 1: their conference is. But yeah, I like Kansas State in
• 1:53:43
  Speaker 1: this one. Northridge looks like they are a public underdog.
• 1:53:46
  Speaker 1: 67% of the tickets on them, only 58% of the cash.
• 1:53:50
  Speaker 1: So it looks like the money is saying to lay
• 1:53:52
  Speaker 1: it with Kansas State. You're only laying 10.5 with them,
• 1:53:55
  Speaker 1: and it is a fairly high total. in the 160s
• 1:53:58
  Speaker 1: so if they're going to be able to win you
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 1: know it looks like they may be able to get
• 1:54:02
  Speaker 1: above this number and maybe that's that's uh low scoring
• 1:54:05
  Speaker 1: game kansas state had in their first game maybe a
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 1: real outlier because it looks like they don't usually play
• 1:54:11
  Speaker 1: that way based on the total here although northridge i
• 1:54:13
  Speaker 1: think is a fast-paced team though so that might be
• 1:54:15
  Speaker 1: affecting the uh The total a bit here. Kansas State,
• 1:54:19
  Speaker 1: I think they actually probably want to slow this game down. Again,
• 1:54:22
  Speaker 1: believe it or not. But I still, I think I
• 1:54:24
  Speaker 1: like them to cover here. Though I would lay it
• 1:54:26
  Speaker 1: with Kansas State. That one almost made the cut for me.
• 1:54:28
  Speaker 1: That's my second strongest college basketball opinion. Almost went on
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 1: the card for me. I like Kansas State in that one. Okay.
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 1: Anything else that I wanted to talk about here? I mean, again,
• 1:54:42
  Speaker 1: you have some more Eastern teams going out West. Oakland,
• 1:54:45
  Speaker 1: after they put up a decent performance against... Yeah, this
• 1:54:49
  Speaker 1: game is kind of interesting, I guess. Oakland put up
• 1:54:51
  Speaker 1: a decent performance as an in-state little brother against Michigan.
• 1:54:55
  Speaker 1: They covered. They only lost by 16, actually. Is that
• 1:54:58
  Speaker 1: what that is? That's not that bad at all. But
• 1:55:00
  Speaker 1: now they've got to go all the way to the
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 1: West Coast for a late-night game. And I talk about
• 1:55:03
  Speaker 1: how bad that is on your biological clock, even though
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 1: it is a power conference team. That Michigan game was
• 1:55:08
  Speaker 1: really big for Oakland, even though it wasn't that close.
• 1:55:11
  Speaker 1: I think this might be a bit of a flat
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 1: spot for them here. Stanford is 1-0, but they didn't
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 1: play well. As I already mentioned, it's Eastern Washington. Eastern
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 1: Washington played them pretty close in that game. So I
• 1:55:21
  Speaker 1: like Stanford in this game. I would lay the points
• 1:55:23
  Speaker 1: with Stanford here. Let me see. Stanford looks like they're
• 1:55:30
  Speaker 1: public with a lot less of the money on them, though,
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 1: so the market read doesn't agree with me on this.
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 1: 82% of the tickets on them and only 57% of
• 1:55:37
  Speaker 1: the cash. We'll keep an eye on how I do here.
• 1:55:40
  Speaker 1: I disagree with the market a lot in college basketball,
• 1:55:43
  Speaker 1: to be honest, and we'll see if my reads are
• 1:55:45
  Speaker 1: better than the market here. At least the market read
• 1:55:47
  Speaker 1: I don't think is that bad against me or that
• 1:55:50
  Speaker 1: much against me in the game I gave out. But Stanford,
• 1:55:53
  Speaker 1: 82% of tickets, 57% of the cash on them. 13
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 1: and a half is where the number is now. Still,
• 1:55:58
  Speaker 1: I think I would prefer laying that one. So those
• 1:56:02
  Speaker 1: are my thoughts on that. But yes, Yale, Central Florida. Yeah,
• 1:56:06
  Speaker 1: that one, the market doesn't totally agree with me, but
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 1: I don't know. That one, it's not a huge market
• 1:56:10
  Speaker 1: disagreement with me. Then we do have No. 22 UCLA
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 1: in North Florida. North Florida having to go out to
• 1:56:16
  Speaker 1: the West Coast, that would worry me for North Florida. Well, actually,
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 1: maybe not. They're already on the West Coast, so maybe
• 1:56:21
  Speaker 1: I take that back. They already just won at Cal Baptist,
• 1:56:25
  Speaker 1: which I still don't want North Florida here, though, because
• 1:56:29
  Speaker 1: that was a big upset, actually. Remember, Cal Baptist won
• 1:56:32
  Speaker 1: their conference last year and made the tournament, but they
• 1:56:34
  Speaker 1: were actually a 10.5-point favorite in that game against North Florida.
• 1:56:37
  Speaker 1: North Florida hasn't been that good recently. North Florida won
• 1:56:41
  Speaker 1: the game outright, though, so after a double-digit upset, I
• 1:56:44
  Speaker 1: don't want to play on that team, you know what
• 1:56:47
  Speaker 1: I mean? North Florida could be a little bit of
• 1:56:49
  Speaker 1: a letdown, although I think they'll still be focused, though,
• 1:56:51
  Speaker 1: against UCLA. This game's on the Big Ten Network. UCLA
• 1:56:54
  Speaker 1: ranked 22nd right now, but UCLA, I still think the
• 1:56:57
  Speaker 1: letdown is worse for them because that was a big
• 1:56:59
  Speaker 1: win for them, beating No. 5 Arizona in their big...
• 1:57:03
  Speaker 1: opener for the season here so i would still lean
• 1:57:05
  Speaker 1: towards north florida and at least for north florida they
• 1:57:07
  Speaker 1: are adjusted to the time zone now so both teams
• 1:57:10
  Speaker 1: are remaining in the pacific time zone here i just
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 1: don't like north florida off of already pulling off an
• 1:57:16
  Speaker 1: upset that's not what i like that's not what i
• 1:57:17
  Speaker 1: want to do north florida hold on there are a
• 1:57:25
  Speaker 1: 34 and a half point favorite here it looks like
• 1:57:27
  Speaker 1: so um Yeah, I guess do what you want with
• 1:57:31
  Speaker 1: that info, but yeah, I would probably take the points
• 1:57:33
  Speaker 1: with North Florida. UCLA is a 34 and a half
• 1:57:35
  Speaker 1: point favorite. North Florida is not that heavy, or excuse me,
• 1:57:39
  Speaker 1: the total is not that high at 156, so that's
• 1:57:42
  Speaker 1: what we got going on in that one. All right.
• 1:57:47
  Speaker 1: Next game. Actually, I think that'll do it for college basketball,
• 1:57:51
  Speaker 1: I think. Let's go to college football, then I'll get
• 1:57:54
  Speaker 1: out of here. Unless maybe I should take one more
• 1:57:56
  Speaker 1: break before I do it. Do we do a second
• 1:57:59
  Speaker 1: hydration break here? Yes, actually, let's do it. And then
• 1:58:04
  Speaker 1: I do have a football play to give out here.
• 1:58:06
  Speaker 1: Long show today, man. It's college basketball season. this really
• 1:58:10
  Speaker 1: takes a lot out of me I gotta refresh my
• 1:58:13
  Speaker 1: voice here a bit I gotta lower my voice I
• 1:58:15
  Speaker 1: don't know how to do it though I just talk
• 1:58:16
  Speaker 1: loud I don't know I gotta bring in the you
• 1:58:19
  Speaker 1: know smoother tones here the sexier tones I don't know
• 1:58:22
  Speaker 1: give me a second music.
• 2:00:08
  Speaker 3: All right, college football, let's do it.
• 2:00:27
  Speaker 1: We have five games here, a couple of big ones. Yeah,
• 2:00:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's a decent slate tonight. We got Virginia Tech,
• 2:00:33
  Speaker 1: SMU on ESPN, first game up. And as I'll point
• 2:00:36
  Speaker 1: out again, A lot of times the home team gets
• 2:00:39
  Speaker 1: a little bit more up for these. primetime games because
• 2:00:42
  Speaker 1: there's spotlight games. The crowd gets a little bit crazier.
• 2:00:45
  Speaker 1: The students go to it, whatever. I think it may
• 2:00:48
  Speaker 1: be more of a factor with the smaller schools. And
• 2:00:51
  Speaker 1: I was right about both overs last night. And I
• 2:00:53
  Speaker 1: was correct, very correct about FAU. What I thought was
• 2:00:57
  Speaker 1: kind of an ugly spot for UTSA and incorrect about
• 2:01:00
  Speaker 1: the over in that game. So I'm kind of mad
• 2:01:01
  Speaker 1: none of that made my card yesterday. But, you know,
• 2:01:05
  Speaker 1: it is what it is. But, yes, we have Virginia
• 2:01:07
  Speaker 1: Tech SMU here in this ACC battle. This game is
• 2:01:11
  Speaker 1: interesting because I can see kind of arguments both ways here.
• 2:01:14
  Speaker 1: For Virginia Tech, they're coming out of a bye, and
• 2:01:17
  Speaker 1: I actually don't think that's a good thing because they
• 2:01:19
  Speaker 1: went into the bye on a two-game win streak. So again,
• 2:01:21
  Speaker 1: I'm going to mention when a team goes into the
• 2:01:23
  Speaker 1: bye on a win streak, I think it could disrupt
• 2:01:25
  Speaker 1: their momentum, so I think that's actually a bad thing
• 2:01:28
  Speaker 1: for Virginia Tech. They beat Georgia Tech, which is kind
• 2:01:30
  Speaker 1: of whatever, but then they beat Clemson on the road.
• 2:01:32
  Speaker 1: I think that's still a big win, even though Clemson's
• 2:01:35
  Speaker 1: kind of mediocre. Going into Death Valley and beating Clemson,
• 2:01:39
  Speaker 1: that's still not an easy thing to do. Clemson still
• 2:01:42
  Speaker 1: has a lot of weight behind their name, so I
• 2:01:44
  Speaker 1: think that was going into the bye on a positive note.
• 2:01:47
  Speaker 1: So I think coming out of the bye off of that,
• 2:01:50
  Speaker 1: I think that's actually not good for Virginia Tech, even
• 2:01:53
  Speaker 1: though they should get up for this game against SMU,
• 2:01:54
  Speaker 1: but I don't like the setup for them. Whereas I
• 2:01:57
  Speaker 1: actually do like the setup better for SMU because they
• 2:02:00
  Speaker 1: did lose a four-game win streak. Now, they did give
• 2:02:02
  Speaker 1: them the second loss, so you might... have to be
• 2:02:06
  Speaker 1: looking at the argument, well, is there a dream crusher
• 2:02:08
  Speaker 1: here for SMU? Because their goal is to win the
• 2:02:10
  Speaker 1: ACC here and possibly get back into the playoff picture here.
• 2:02:15
  Speaker 1: They were in the playoffs two years ago, I think.
• 2:02:18
  Speaker 1: But their goal, I think, is at least to win
• 2:02:19
  Speaker 1: the ACC, but that goal is not out of reach yet.
• 2:02:21
  Speaker 1: They're going to need Wake Forest to stumble, although SMU
• 2:02:24
  Speaker 1: does play Wake Forest next, and that's where this gets tricky,
• 2:02:27
  Speaker 1: is that SMU, you might argue they have a look
• 2:02:30
  Speaker 1: ahead here to Wake next, because that game may determine
• 2:02:33
  Speaker 1: some things about the ACC. But this is a primetime game,
• 2:02:38
  Speaker 1: and that usually keeps that team focused enough. I typically
• 2:02:42
  Speaker 1: don't want to fade the home team unless there's a
• 2:02:44
  Speaker 1: really good angle to fade them. I don't think there
• 2:02:47
  Speaker 1: is here, even though, yes, you could argue it's a
• 2:02:49
  Speaker 1: look ahead, and then they do play Notre Dame after that,
• 2:02:51
  Speaker 1: which is a big game, but it also doesn't have
• 2:02:53
  Speaker 1: conference implications, although it may have playoff implications. But the
• 2:02:59
  Speaker 1: other thing about SMU, though, they played last week, and
• 2:03:01
  Speaker 1: they did not play well against Syracuse. They got upset.
• 2:03:04
  Speaker 1: They lost the game outright in Syracuse. that did end
• 2:03:08
  Speaker 1: a four game win streak for them. So sometimes that
• 2:03:10
  Speaker 1: is a momentum stopper. Sometimes it'll be hung over after
• 2:03:13
  Speaker 1: you lose a win streak. But I think for SMU,
• 2:03:15
  Speaker 1: that was an ugly loss as a favor. And I
• 2:03:17
  Speaker 1: think that sets up a bounce back spot. I think
• 2:03:19
  Speaker 1: you're going to get more focused here. I think the
• 2:03:21
  Speaker 1: spot is negative for Virginia tech. I think it's more
• 2:03:24
  Speaker 1: positive than negative for SMU. So I actually like SMU
• 2:03:27
  Speaker 1: in this game. And I know the professionals don't agree
• 2:03:29
  Speaker 1: with me on this one. The money is not agreeing
• 2:03:31
  Speaker 1: with me here. Uh, 57% of the tickets are on SMU,
• 2:03:36
  Speaker 1: 67% of the cash on Virginia Tech. SMU is a
• 2:03:38
  Speaker 1: six and a half point favorite, so it is below
• 2:03:41
  Speaker 1: that key number seven, which does look more enticing to
• 2:03:44
  Speaker 1: play the favorite. Although when you're looking at a game
• 2:03:47
  Speaker 1: like this, I don't know, because both teams have pretty
• 2:03:48
  Speaker 1: good records here. So I wouldn't have thought the public
• 2:03:51
  Speaker 1: would be very heavy on SMU, and they don't appear
• 2:03:54
  Speaker 1: to be, although it does appear that the money is
• 2:03:56
  Speaker 1: coming in on Virginia Tech. I don't agree, though. I
• 2:03:59
  Speaker 1: lean SMU, laying the points in this one slightly. Not
• 2:04:03
  Speaker 1: a strong opinion, really, for me, though. ESPN2, 730, we
• 2:04:07
  Speaker 1: have a pretty ugly one between South Florida and East Carolina.
• 2:04:11
  Speaker 1: South Florida, they're coming off beating UAB. You know, I mean, UAB,
• 2:04:17
  Speaker 1: I've been making fun of them all year. I don't
• 2:04:18
  Speaker 1: think they're really that good. SMU was able to beat
• 2:04:20
  Speaker 1: them pretty easily. That was last Saturday. The thing about
• 2:04:24
  Speaker 1: South Florida, though, is.
• 2:04:28
  Speaker 1: They have Memphis on deck. That's a big game, dude.
• 2:04:30
  Speaker 1: ESPN game where they're going to host Memphis on Thursday.
• 2:04:33
  Speaker 1: So it's a little bit of a quicker turnaround time there.
• 2:04:36
  Speaker 1: I think that's a bigger game than this one is
• 2:04:38
  Speaker 1: for South Florida. So I think that is a look-ahead
• 2:04:40
  Speaker 1: spot for South Florida here. As far as their conference implications,
• 2:04:45
  Speaker 1: they're not really in the picture to get into the
• 2:04:47
  Speaker 1: conference championship at this point, although we'll see. I mean,
• 2:04:49
  Speaker 1: that game against Memphis is just definitely going to be
• 2:04:51
  Speaker 1: bigger for them, though. So I think this is a
• 2:04:53
  Speaker 1: look-ahead spot for South Florida here. For East Carolina, I'm
• 2:04:57
  Speaker 1: They just beat Temple last week, and I'm pissed about
• 2:05:00
  Speaker 1: that because we had Temple here on the show. It
• 2:05:02
  Speaker 1: was so low scoring that Temple should have covered that
• 2:05:05
  Speaker 1: game as an underdog. If you were going to tell
• 2:05:07
  Speaker 1: me East Carolina was only going to score 17 in
• 2:05:09
  Speaker 1: the whole game, I'd have been like, yeah, let's load up.
• 2:05:12
  Speaker 1: on Temple as an underdog there, and it did not happen.
• 2:05:15
  Speaker 1: They couldn't generate any offense in that one. Ugly win
• 2:05:18
  Speaker 1: for East Carolina, but I think that will actually undervalue
• 2:05:21
  Speaker 1: East Carolina coming into this game because people don't like that.
• 2:05:24
  Speaker 1: An ugly, low-scoring win, nobody likes that. People will like
• 2:05:27
  Speaker 1: South Florida. blowing out UAB but that UAB team I
• 2:05:31
  Speaker 1: keep telling you they're not that good South Florida's offense
• 2:05:33
  Speaker 1: is not as good as that looks so I think
• 2:05:35
  Speaker 1: this is an ugly game I kind of like East
• 2:05:38
  Speaker 1: Carolina in this one with the look ahead going on
• 2:05:41
  Speaker 1: for South Florida as well the money doesn't agree with
• 2:05:43
  Speaker 1: me on this either 62% of the tickets are on
• 2:05:45
  Speaker 1: East Carolina 67% of the cash on South Florida East
• 2:05:49
  Speaker 1: Carolina's a two and a half point fair they actually
• 2:05:51
  Speaker 1: went up from a pick'em so I don't know if
• 2:05:53
  Speaker 1: there's maybe an injury going on here on the South
• 2:05:56
  Speaker 1: Florida side You know, I mean, even if there is,
• 2:06:00
  Speaker 1: I still kind of like East Carolina here. That would
• 2:06:03
  Speaker 1: be my lean as far as the side is concerned.
• 2:06:05
  Speaker 1: The under seems to make sense to me as well
• 2:06:07
  Speaker 1: in this game. It opened 40.5. It's down to 39.5,
• 2:06:11
  Speaker 1: so it didn't... I mean, it didn't go through a
• 2:06:13
  Speaker 1: key number of 41 at least here, but the money
• 2:06:15
  Speaker 1: seems to be strongly on the under in this game,
• 2:06:17
  Speaker 1: and I think that makes sense too. I think you're
• 2:06:19
  Speaker 1: looking at two... offenses that are not very good in
• 2:06:24
  Speaker 1: this one. So I think that's what we might see here.
• 2:06:26
  Speaker 1: This could be one of those ugly games, kind of
• 2:06:29
  Speaker 1: like what East Carolina looked like last week. But like
• 2:06:33
  Speaker 1: I said, South Florida is not actually a good offense.
• 2:06:35
  Speaker 1: Even though they looked like they could score last week,
• 2:06:38
  Speaker 1: that's not really the case. So I think the under
• 2:06:40
  Speaker 1: makes sense there, too. And that total is really low
• 2:06:43
  Speaker 1: for a reason. All right, Nebraska at Illinois on Fox here. Nebraska,
• 2:06:49
  Speaker 1: I mean... They're pretty much out of contention as far
• 2:06:53
  Speaker 1: as possibly winning the conference. So that goal is dashed,
• 2:06:56
  Speaker 1: of course. But do they still care about, you know,
• 2:06:59
  Speaker 1: getting into a bowl and anything like that? I mean,
• 2:07:01
  Speaker 1: I think they kind of do. I think at this point,
• 2:07:03
  Speaker 1: you got to think they're going to want to play
• 2:07:05
  Speaker 1: for some semblance of pride here. The fact they've lost
• 2:07:07
  Speaker 1: three games in a row. They lost to Indiana and Oregon,
• 2:07:10
  Speaker 1: but they were underdogs in both games. Like they weren't
• 2:07:12
  Speaker 1: expected to win those games. They played really tough against Indiana,
• 2:07:15
  Speaker 1: and then they kind of fell off the rails after that.
• 2:07:17
  Speaker 1: And while it's true Nebraska has not stepped up well
• 2:07:19
  Speaker 1: in class, they lost to both teams they played that
• 2:07:22
  Speaker 1: were the better teams, Indiana and Oregon. For the most part,
• 2:07:26
  Speaker 1: they've taken care of business against bad teams, except they
• 2:07:29
  Speaker 1: lost last week to Washington. I think Washington is better
• 2:07:32
  Speaker 1: than Illinois, which is who they're playing today. Washington's better
• 2:07:35
  Speaker 1: than Maryland, probably better than Michigan State as well. So
• 2:07:38
  Speaker 1: Washington was still better than those teams. I put Illinois
• 2:07:42
  Speaker 1: more on the level of, like, Probably Michigan State. So
• 2:07:45
  Speaker 1: I think Nebraska is certainly capable of bouncing back and
• 2:07:47
  Speaker 1: winning here. And that last game was pretty bad for
• 2:07:50
  Speaker 1: them as they were seven and a half point favored
• 2:07:52
  Speaker 1: in this game and they lost outright to Washington. And
• 2:07:55
  Speaker 1: it was a misleading result to his Nebraska out game,
• 2:07:58
  Speaker 1: Washington by 120 yards. They lost the game because they
• 2:08:01
  Speaker 1: had three turnovers. They were minus three in turnovers. So
• 2:08:05
  Speaker 1: you get a Nebraska team coming off a misleading loss.
• 2:08:08
  Speaker 1: That was a game where they were a big favorite
• 2:08:10
  Speaker 1: and lost as well. And I like teams in that
• 2:08:12
  Speaker 1: scenario to bounce back. Like they were better than it looked.
• 2:08:15
  Speaker 1: Plus they lost as a favorite and, I think they
• 2:08:18
  Speaker 1: should bounce back here, so I kind of like Nebraska
• 2:08:20
  Speaker 1: for that reason. You know me, I haven't been a
• 2:08:22
  Speaker 1: fan of Illinois all year. They've gotten me a couple times,
• 2:08:25
  Speaker 1: and I'm pissed because they got me last week. Well,
• 2:08:28
  Speaker 1: I pushed on that one. I found a three, luckily,
• 2:08:30
  Speaker 1: on Maryland, but I gave it a two and a
• 2:08:32
  Speaker 1: half on the show. Counted it as a loss, unfortunately.
• 2:08:35
  Speaker 1: I thought that was a great spot. Maryland in the
• 2:08:38
  Speaker 1: fired coach spot, which should have sparked them, and I
• 2:08:40
  Speaker 1: thought it was a bad spot for Illinois. Coming off
• 2:08:43
  Speaker 1: the game against Oregon, where they had upset Oregon in
• 2:08:45
  Speaker 1: a double-digit upset. I still don't like Illinois, though. I mean,
• 2:08:48
  Speaker 1: it's still not that impressive of a win at all
• 2:08:51
  Speaker 1: against Maryland. They got UCLA and Iowa on deck, so
• 2:08:54
  Speaker 1: they got a couple of ranked opponents coming up, and
• 2:08:56
  Speaker 1: I think those are the games they're going to focus
• 2:08:58
  Speaker 1: on rather than Nebraska, who's kind of falling off here.
• 2:09:01
  Speaker 1: Illinois is going nowhere this year anyway. Even though they're
• 2:09:04
  Speaker 1: sitting at 3-2, they're going to make a bowl again
• 2:09:06
  Speaker 1: most likely. They'll win one of these. Well, you know,
• 2:09:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're probably not going to win against UCLA
• 2:09:12
  Speaker 1: and Iowa, and then they have to play on the
• 2:09:13
  Speaker 1: road against Northwestern, so you know what? I like Nebraska here,
• 2:09:17
  Speaker 1: but that would be my one hesitation is that if
• 2:09:19
  Speaker 1: Illinois cares about becoming bowl eligible, they basically have to
• 2:09:23
  Speaker 1: win this game because I don't know if they're going
• 2:09:25
  Speaker 1: to be able to win the remaining three games. Those games,
• 2:09:28
  Speaker 1: they're going to be underdogs in all of them, and
• 2:09:30
  Speaker 1: they're an underdog in this game too, but that also
• 2:09:32
  Speaker 1: tells you how bad Illinois really is. But I like
• 2:09:35
  Speaker 1: Nebraska in this game, and again, the market doesn't agree
• 2:09:38
  Speaker 1: with me. Nebraska's four and a half. I think they're
• 2:09:40
  Speaker 1: the better team in bounce back mode here. If either
• 2:09:44
  Speaker 1: team cares about bowl eligibility, still, they're both going for
• 2:09:47
  Speaker 1: that today. 56% of the tickets, 77% of the cash
• 2:09:51
  Speaker 1: on Illinois, so the money is playing Illinois. It is
• 2:09:54
  Speaker 1: kind of a low total in the high 40s, which
• 2:09:57
  Speaker 1: makes more sense to take the points, kind of, but
• 2:10:00
  Speaker 1: it's not that many points. I prefer Nebraska laying the
• 2:10:03
  Speaker 1: points in that one, so I disagree with the market.
• 2:10:05
  Speaker 1: on all three of those games, which is kind of insane.
• 2:10:08
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to play any of them, though. Then
• 2:10:10
  Speaker 1: we got CBS Sports at 9 p.m. We got New
• 2:10:12
  Speaker 1: Mexico and Nevada, and I think New Mexico is teetering
• 2:10:17
  Speaker 1: on possibly being ranked at this point. They're 7-1. They
• 2:10:20
  Speaker 1: look good, and they're in the driver's seat to win
• 2:10:23
  Speaker 1: the Mountain West right now, although they're going to have
• 2:10:25
  Speaker 1: to play in the Mountain West championship game. At least
• 2:10:27
  Speaker 1: they got to get there first and then win it,
• 2:10:29
  Speaker 1: of course. Still remaining games, but that's the thing. So
• 2:10:32
  Speaker 1: for New Mexico, they had their big win over North
• 2:10:34
  Speaker 1: Dakota State, and I said fade them after that. It
• 2:10:38
  Speaker 1: wasn't a play for me, but I said they were
• 2:10:40
  Speaker 1: going to be in a letdown spot after that huge win,
• 2:10:42
  Speaker 1: and it seems like they were. They did not cover
• 2:10:45
  Speaker 1: against San Jose State, but they won. They were 15.5-point
• 2:10:49
  Speaker 1: favorites in that game, and they didn't play well and
• 2:10:50
  Speaker 1: only won by five. And that was an explainable letdown
• 2:10:54
  Speaker 1: spot because New Mexico was coming off the big win.
• 2:10:57
  Speaker 1: So now what I normally say is, well, They're going
• 2:10:59
  Speaker 1: to play better again here. They're going to bounce back, right,
• 2:11:01
  Speaker 1: because they played bad as a favorite. So usually when
• 2:11:05
  Speaker 1: that happens, the team bounces back. I don't know if
• 2:11:08
  Speaker 1: that's the case here, though, because they're playing Nevada, who's
• 2:11:10
  Speaker 1: not a good team, easy to overlook them. They're playing
• 2:11:13
  Speaker 1: a third road game in four weeks, I'm pretty sure,
• 2:11:15
  Speaker 1: and the first of those was in Hawaii, which is
• 2:11:19
  Speaker 1: not going to be that easy. Hold on, let me
• 2:11:20
  Speaker 1: make sure they didn't have a bye in here. They didn't. No,
• 2:11:24
  Speaker 1: they didn't. So they had the bye before the Hawaii game.
• 2:11:27
  Speaker 1: So yeah, they're playing a third road game in four weeks,
• 2:11:29
  Speaker 1: including a Hawaii travel spot. That's kind of crazy. Although
• 2:11:35
  Speaker 1: going from San Jose to Reno is a really easy trip, though.
• 2:11:38
  Speaker 1: But on deck is really what I'm looking at here.
• 2:11:40
  Speaker 1: New Mexico's got UNLV on deck. That's really their other
• 2:11:44
  Speaker 1: threat in the Mountain West is UNLV. Wyoming is fake.
• 2:11:47
  Speaker 1: I know Wyoming's in second place right now in this conference. Yeah,
• 2:11:51
  Speaker 1: they're fake. North Dakota State's better than Wyoming. North Dakota
• 2:11:54
  Speaker 1: State's the other of the better teams in this conference.
• 2:11:56
  Speaker 1: But really, I think it's going to come down to
• 2:11:58
  Speaker 1: New Mexico, UNLV in this conference. So that game coming
• 2:12:01
  Speaker 1: up next against UNLV, that is a big game. So
• 2:12:04
  Speaker 1: I think it's a look ahead for New Mexico. So
• 2:12:06
  Speaker 1: I like Nevada in this one. I would take the points.
• 2:12:08
  Speaker 1: And finally, we have market agreement with me on one
• 2:12:10
  Speaker 1: of them. New Mexico, 69% of the tickets on them,
• 2:12:13
  Speaker 1: 55% of the cash on Nevada. You're getting double digits
• 2:12:17
  Speaker 1: with them too. If you're going to play this, get
• 2:12:19
  Speaker 1: at least And I would say you might find it...
• 2:12:22
  Speaker 1: I would say try to find a 10.5, really. It
• 2:12:24
  Speaker 1: looks like 10.5 is out there at some places. It'll
• 2:12:27
  Speaker 1: be juiced to take the Nevada plus 10.5, but.
• 2:12:31
  Speaker 1: Seems good to me. 10 is still probably good. You're
• 2:12:34
  Speaker 1: on the key number, at least if you get 10.
• 2:12:36
  Speaker 1: We have a really low total here at 38.5, and
• 2:12:39
  Speaker 1: the money is coming in on the under two. So
• 2:12:42
  Speaker 1: a total of 38.5 in what I think is a
• 2:12:44
  Speaker 1: questionable spot for the favorite, and you're getting the home
• 2:12:47
  Speaker 1: team in a primetime game where they don't usually get
• 2:12:50
  Speaker 1: primetime games like this on a big building like this,
• 2:12:53
  Speaker 1: and they're a huge underdog. Yeah, I like the home
• 2:12:55
  Speaker 1: team here. So yeah, I would take Nevada. Just maybe
• 2:12:59
  Speaker 1: the worry is that New Mexico is in a bounce-back
• 2:13:00
  Speaker 1: spot there. Then, of course, I said I have a play. Well, yeah,
• 2:13:04
  Speaker 1: it's in this last game here. We are going to
• 2:13:07
  Speaker 1: take the underdog here, even though they're a road underdog.
• 2:13:09
  Speaker 1: We're going to fade the home team in this primetime game.
• 2:13:12
  Speaker 1: We're going to take TCU plus 7.5. I mean, this
• 2:13:15
  Speaker 1: is a bigger conference game, so I think the home
• 2:13:18
  Speaker 1: atmosphere means a little bit less in a game like this.
• 2:13:20
  Speaker 1: Arizona's ranked, of course. I'm still not quite sold on Arizona.
• 2:13:24
  Speaker 1: This game is going to be on ESPN, but I
• 2:13:26
  Speaker 1: just think the spot is questionable for Arizona, even though
• 2:13:31
  Speaker 1: it gets a little bit tricky fading home teams in
• 2:13:34
  Speaker 1: these primetime games, I will tell you, because a lot
• 2:13:35
  Speaker 1: of times they do get up for these games just
• 2:13:38
  Speaker 1: because it's a primetime game, isolated game, but this is
• 2:13:41
  Speaker 1: a difficult spot for Arizona, dude. They haven't lost since
• 2:13:45
  Speaker 1: losing to BYU early in the season, and they finally
• 2:13:48
  Speaker 1: lost again last week to Texas Tech, and that was
• 2:13:50
  Speaker 1: a close game. They went into Texas Tech, one of
• 2:13:53
  Speaker 1: their main threats. Well, not really a threat. I mean,
• 2:13:56
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech, I think it's BYU and Utah at this
• 2:13:59
  Speaker 1: point probably the best teams in this conference, but Texas
• 2:14:02
  Speaker 1: Tech is still right there as well, and so is Houston. Arizona,
• 2:14:06
  Speaker 1: I don't think they're as legitimate as any of those
• 2:14:10
  Speaker 1: other teams. But what I meant to say is Texas
• 2:14:13
  Speaker 1: Tech is one of their biggest competition, let's say, in
• 2:14:17
  Speaker 1: the Big 12. That was a huge game, and Arizona
• 2:14:19
  Speaker 1: almost pulled off what would have been a mild upset
• 2:14:21
  Speaker 1: of about three and a half. They played a tough game,
• 2:14:24
  Speaker 1: and it was a close game late. It was a
• 2:14:26
  Speaker 1: one-point game in the fourth quarter before they finally fell
• 2:14:29
  Speaker 1: short and lost by eight. Coming off of that game,
• 2:14:32
  Speaker 1: I think it could be a hangover spot. And look
• 2:14:33
  Speaker 1: who they have on deck, too. They got Utah on
• 2:14:36
  Speaker 1: deck next week. That's a huge game as well. So
• 2:14:39
  Speaker 1: this is a sandwich spot that Arizona's in here. I
• 2:14:43
  Speaker 1: think it's a bad spot, and I think it's easy
• 2:14:45
  Speaker 1: to overlook TCU, who is near the bottom of the
• 2:14:48
  Speaker 1: conference right now, below. 500 in the conference. But I
• 2:14:50
  Speaker 1: still think TCU is better than the teams that are
• 2:14:53
  Speaker 1: kind of surrounding them in this lower realm of the
• 2:14:56
  Speaker 1: conference here. TCU doesn't play well offensively. And that is
• 2:15:01
  Speaker 1: offensive to better. People are going to look at all
• 2:15:04
  Speaker 1: these low-scoring games for TCU, and the public's not going
• 2:15:06
  Speaker 1: to want to bet them because they're in all these
• 2:15:08
  Speaker 1: low-scoring games. But the good thing about that is they
• 2:15:11
  Speaker 1: have a good defense. Their defense has been good, and
• 2:15:13
  Speaker 1: that's what you want when you're taking over a touchdown
• 2:15:16
  Speaker 1: as an underdog. You want the better defense, and I'm
• 2:15:18
  Speaker 1: pretty sure we're getting the better defense with TCU here.
• 2:15:21
  Speaker 1: So I say we do it. TCU's defense has put
• 2:15:25
  Speaker 1: up some good performances here, man, really good. They haven't
• 2:15:28
  Speaker 1: allowed more than 24 in any conference game. That was
• 2:15:31
  Speaker 1: against West Virginia. West Virginia, pretty good on offense, not
• 2:15:34
  Speaker 1: good on defense. TCU's coming off an effort that was
• 2:15:38
  Speaker 1: whatever against Kansas. I think they landed right around what
• 2:15:42
  Speaker 1: the number was, winning by six. The professional bettors that
• 2:15:45
  Speaker 1: took that play early were able to get that win
• 2:15:47
  Speaker 1: on the minus four and a half on TCU there.
• 2:15:51
  Speaker 1: And I heard some professionals buying back on the other
• 2:15:53
  Speaker 1: side of that game on the plus six. I liked
• 2:15:55
  Speaker 1: TCU personally in that game, but they landed right around
• 2:15:58
  Speaker 1: what the closing number was. But the public's going to
• 2:16:00
  Speaker 1: put no weight into that. They're going to love Arizona's
• 2:16:02
  Speaker 1: performance against the Texas Tech. Like, oh yeah, that was
• 2:16:05
  Speaker 1: a great performance.
• 2:16:06
  Speaker 3: It was.
• 2:16:07
  Speaker 1: It was a good effort from them. And it looks
• 2:16:10
  Speaker 1: really good. Arizona losing in a close, fairly high scoring
• 2:16:13
  Speaker 1: game against Texas Tech. Public's going to look at this
• 2:16:16
  Speaker 1: and see this ugly performance TCU win barely getting by Kansas,
• 2:16:20
  Speaker 1: and they're not going to like that. But I think
• 2:16:22
  Speaker 1: this is the way. Arizona's in a bad spot, sandwich spot.
• 2:16:25
  Speaker 1: We're getting the better defense, getting a bunch of points here.
• 2:16:28
  Speaker 1: TCU still at least trying to get bowl eligible at
• 2:16:31
  Speaker 1: the very least here. You'd think that is something on
• 2:16:33
  Speaker 1: their goals list here. And they're playing a ranked team,
• 2:16:36
  Speaker 1: and they have a chance to play spoiler, so I
• 2:16:38
  Speaker 1: think they'll get up for it. And Arizona, as I
• 2:16:41
  Speaker 1: kind of forgot to explicitly point out, the fact that
• 2:16:43
  Speaker 1: they just lost a win streak, I think that's a
• 2:16:45
  Speaker 1: negative too. That can be a hangover spot when you
• 2:16:47
  Speaker 1: lose a win streak like that. So yeah, let's take
• 2:16:50
  Speaker 1: TCU plus the points in this one. The money agrees.
• 2:16:53
  Speaker 1: The public's coming in on the Arizona side to some extent.
• 2:16:56
  Speaker 1: 65% of the tickets on them, 62% of the cash.
• 2:16:59
  Speaker 1: So less of the money on them. You can already
• 2:17:02
  Speaker 1: see the money is coming on the TCU because the
• 2:17:04
  Speaker 1: line opened nine and it's already at basically seven everywhere.
• 2:17:08
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to tell you, I mean, get at
• 2:17:12
  Speaker 1: least seven on this. I mean, I don't know if
• 2:17:14
  Speaker 1: maybe you can wait and still get a seven and
• 2:17:15
  Speaker 1: a half because the public is going to continue to
• 2:17:18
  Speaker 1: come in on this, and they're going to be on
• 2:17:20
  Speaker 1: Arizona here. Hang on. This game's, yeah, I was going to, like,
• 2:17:23
  Speaker 1: wait a minute. When's this game? Yeah, 10-15 Eastern. Yeah,
• 2:17:26
  Speaker 1: I know it is one of those games where TCU
• 2:17:28
  Speaker 1: is having to travel to the Pacific Coast. I know
• 2:17:30
  Speaker 1: I usually don't like teams in that spot. Having to
• 2:17:33
  Speaker 1: travel to the Pacific Coast. TCU is a central time
• 2:17:36
  Speaker 1: zone team. They've got to adjust their biological clock. Play
• 2:17:40
  Speaker 1: late on their biological clock. But I think the spot
• 2:17:43
  Speaker 1: sets up well enough for this that I like it anyway.
• 2:17:45
  Speaker 1: So that's the only drawback to this. but I say
• 2:17:48
  Speaker 1: we do it, TCU plus the points, um, and the
• 2:17:51
  Speaker 1: total's low, it's gone up a little bit, but it's
• 2:17:53
  Speaker 1: still in the mid-40s, so taking the points looks a
• 2:17:56
  Speaker 1: little bit better when it's a low total like this, so, uh,
• 2:17:59
  Speaker 1: TCU's defense expected to perform well here, so I like
• 2:18:03
  Speaker 1: that as well, but yeah, um, You can take the
• 2:18:06
  Speaker 1: seven now on TCU because there is a danger that
• 2:18:09
  Speaker 1: maybe the professional money will win out here. I'm not sure.
• 2:18:12
  Speaker 1: The public might be able to keep this line around seven,
• 2:18:14
  Speaker 1: but maybe not. So if you don't want to risk that,
• 2:18:16
  Speaker 1: I would take at least seven on this. But it
• 2:18:18
  Speaker 1: was seven and a half right before I did the show.
• 2:18:21
  Speaker 1: So I don't know. Maybe it still is at some places,
• 2:18:23
  Speaker 1: but that's going to do it, man. Learn to tote
• 2:18:27
  Speaker 1: on Twitter, TikTok, Instagram. Go check me out on all
• 2:18:31
  Speaker 1: the things. Like, subscribe to the channel here. boost it up, reply,
• 2:18:37
  Speaker 1: you know, even whatever the haters that I'm complaining about
• 2:18:39
  Speaker 1: on the show today come in, you know, after the
• 2:18:41
  Speaker 1: fact and only point out my losses and not my wins. Yeah,
• 2:18:44
  Speaker 1: I know what my losses are, dude. It shows, you know,
• 2:18:48
  Speaker 1: it affects the wallet, so I know. You know, you
• 2:18:52
  Speaker 1: think you can do better, you can be my guest,
• 2:18:56
  Speaker 1: but you're not going to. So, yeah, I'm sorry. I've
• 2:18:59
  Speaker 1: been doing this for two decades. You can make fun
• 2:19:01
  Speaker 1: of me all you want, but I'm giving you the
• 2:19:02
  Speaker 1: spots that I think are the right spots, the right plays. Yeah, whatever.
• 2:19:06
  Speaker 1: Let's pump this thing up. More hate means we're getting
• 2:19:10
  Speaker 1: more viewers, so that's the good thing about it. Bring
• 2:19:13
  Speaker 1: on the hate, whatever. What else we got here? We're
• 2:19:18
  Speaker 1: on audio. Apple, Spotify, Spreaker, so check it out there.
• 2:19:21
  Speaker 1: That helps me out as well. But yeah, like, subscribe,
• 2:19:25
  Speaker 1: and reply here. That boosts the channel here, obviously. Covered
• 2:19:30
  Speaker 1: in Uke is my ukulele channel on YouTube. You can
• 2:19:31
  Speaker 1: check that out. Uke covers patreon.com slash learn to tote
• 2:19:35
  Speaker 1: if you want to support me there. Get some bonus
• 2:19:37
  Speaker 1: Uke stuff. Loser cast every Tuesday night. And once again,
• 2:19:40
  Speaker 1: the plays we have today, we have five more plays today.
• 2:19:43
  Speaker 1: A big board today.
• 2:19:44
  Speaker 3: We got.
• 2:19:45
  Speaker 1: Buffalo in the NHL to win in regulation this time.
• 2:19:48
  Speaker 1: I'm doing it a little bit differently, getting that price down.
• 2:19:51
  Speaker 1: We got Utah Jazz in the NBA plus 7.5. We
• 2:19:55
  Speaker 1: got the Toronto Raptors in the NBA minus 6.5, although
• 2:19:58
  Speaker 1: it is juiced. I still said that I would still
• 2:20:01
  Speaker 1: agree with laying the 7.5 on this. I mean, maybe
• 2:20:03
  Speaker 1: put a little bit less money on it, but at
• 2:20:05
  Speaker 1: least it's not football. So the 7, again, is a
• 2:20:08
  Speaker 1: little bit less key here. We're laying 9.5 in college
• 2:20:11
  Speaker 1: basketball with UCF. So college basketball and football all going
• 2:20:15
  Speaker 1: on here. And in college football, TCU plus 7.5. Those
• 2:20:20
  Speaker 1: are my plays. So we got some Big 12 action
• 2:20:23
  Speaker 1: going on in both conferences there, in both sports. I mean,
• 2:20:27
  Speaker 1: that's it. I appreciate it, everybody.
• 2:20:30
  Speaker 3: Peace.
• 2:20:33
  Speaker 4: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone. Let
• 2:20:38
  Speaker 4: somebody answer, let somebody know.
• 2:20:42
  Speaker 2: You do not have.
• 2:20:44
  Speaker 5: To lose this round alone.
• 2:20:50
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on, not tonight. Not now Hold on,
• 2:21:01
  Speaker 2: hold on Let me pull you out That bad luck
• 2:21:10
  Speaker 2: fights hard But it don't get the crown Hold on, hold.
• 2:21:19
  Speaker 1: On Stay with me now
• 2:21:25
  Speaker 5: Hold on, hold on You're still here now guitar solo