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Best Bets Today | Jaguars Favored by 10 IN Baltimore?! | NFL, NBA, NHL, CBB & CFB Picks Thursday · Toadstool Sports

0:02
Speaker 1: Well, we went 1-1 on the show here yesterday. Easy
0:05
Speaker 1: win in the Maction college football game, Central Michigan. No sweat.
0:10
Speaker 1: It's the type of winner that you like, man. You
0:12
Speaker 1: get out to the big lead and that's all she wrote. Unfortunately,
0:18
Speaker 1: the Phoenix Suns are ass. I don't know what else
0:22
Speaker 1: to say about that. They looked good in the first quarter.
0:25
Speaker 1: They had the lead at the end of the first
0:27
Speaker 1: quarter and then they had the worst second quarter that
0:29
Speaker 1: you'll probably ever see on the defensive end they gave
0:33
Speaker 1: up like what almost 50 points in the second quarter
0:35
Speaker 1: like if you had told me that Phoenix was going
0:38
Speaker 1: to have like 60 at halftime I would have been
0:40
Speaker 1: like yeah it seems pretty good to me they're obviously
0:42
Speaker 1: going to be winning not losing by double digits because
0:46
Speaker 1: they've allowed 70 whatever in the first half I don't
0:50
Speaker 1: even know what to tell you about that defense doesn't
0:53
Speaker 1: even exist to that team apparently they tried to make
0:56
Speaker 1: a comeback late but obviously it was not enough So
1:00
Speaker 1: that sucked. I don't know if there are any other
1:03
Speaker 1: games to really talk about yesterday as far as, I mean,
1:06
Speaker 1: I was right about a lot of the other stuff.
1:07
Speaker 1: I was right about the Knicks, which was my second
1:10
Speaker 1: strongest NBA lean, really. That one was not on the card.
1:13
Speaker 1: That would have been an easy win. Sorry to sob.
1:16
Speaker 1: I told you, man, when I dug into that game,
1:18
Speaker 1: I liked the Knicks in that one quite a bit.
1:21
Speaker 1: My Boston Celtics blew a massive lead and escaped with
1:25
Speaker 1: a win still because that's pretty much what they do.
1:28
Speaker 1: And they're not hitting three as well, but maybe it's
1:30
Speaker 1: a good sign that they're still winning despite that. But
1:32
Speaker 1: I don't know. Blowing huge leads, not a good sign, man.
1:36
Speaker 1: Other than that, I don't know. Was there anything else
1:38
Speaker 1: that happened last night that's really discussion-worthy? I don't know. Football,
1:43
Speaker 1: UMass won, but they didn't cover. And the other game,
1:47
Speaker 1: I was right about the other game. Toledo barely snuck
1:50
Speaker 1: by in that just weird spot, having to go out
1:53
Speaker 1: to the West Coast there. That's... It's a tricky spot, man.
1:57
Speaker 1: These geographic alignments or misalignments in these conferences are all
2:02
Speaker 1: pretty ridiculous. I don't know what else to tell you
2:05
Speaker 1: about that, but for Toledo, they escaped with a win,
2:08
Speaker 1: so they're still on track to try to win the MAAC.
2:14
Speaker 1: I think they were 25.5 maybe or something like that.
2:19
Speaker 1: I didn't watch the game, no. That was an ugly game. I.
2:24
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just kind of had my eye on the
2:26
Speaker 1: game that I had the play on, but I wasn't
2:29
Speaker 1: even watching the football. Maybe I should have watched the
2:32
Speaker 1: end of the UMass game because that was the really
2:34
Speaker 1: exciting one. I guess Toledo was exciting, too. I do
2:38
Speaker 1: like defensive battles, but that was more of just an
2:41
Speaker 1: ugly game where the teams just weren't playing their best,
2:45
Speaker 1: I wouldn't say. Maybe Sacramento State did play their best, though, really. Yeah,
2:50
Speaker 1: I think that's all I got. There's a huge board
2:53
Speaker 1: to break down today. I have a bunch of plays,
2:56
Speaker 1: and I think I'm limiting myself, too, because I have
2:58
Speaker 1: at least two more hockey games that I have a
3:01
Speaker 1: strong opinion on that aren't on the card. I got
3:05
Speaker 1: college basketball. I have a couple of additional leans outside
3:08
Speaker 1: of the play I'm going to give out, and I'm
3:10
Speaker 1: going to have a play in the NFL game. I
3:12
Speaker 1: think we just have to do it, and you're not
3:14
Speaker 1: going to like any of it. Every single one of
3:16
Speaker 1: my plays today is... Disgusting. It's really, really bad. But
3:21
Speaker 1: I think this is the way to go. And yeah,
3:24
Speaker 1: that's a great intro. Stay tuned if you want the
3:27
Speaker 1: ugliest card imaginable. That's what I have today. That's coming
3:31
Speaker 1: up after the intro.
3:49
Speaker 2: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
3:53
Speaker 2: in your chest.
3:54
Speaker 1: Black coffee on the felt, man.
3:56
Speaker 2: You look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust
4:01
Speaker 2: in your hand.
4:02
Speaker 1: Now you stare at the chips like they made you
4:05
Speaker 1: this man.
4:06
Speaker 2: But don't you go quiet, don't you fade from the floor.
4:10
Speaker 1: Your name still means something to somebody for sure. Put
4:15
Speaker 1: the glass down, baby.
4:18
Speaker 2: Look at me now. Hold on.
4:25
Speaker 1: Hold on.
4:26
Speaker 2: Not tonight. Not now. Hold on. Hold on. Let me
4:35
Speaker 2: pull you out. That fella fights hard. But he don't
4:45
Speaker 2: get the crown.
4:47
Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
4:53
Speaker 2: All right, what's up, everybody?
5:02
Speaker 1: Or just Randy out there, I guess. It's Toad back
5:05
Speaker 1: with you. Toadstool Sports for Thursday, November 5th. Let's break
5:12
Speaker 1: this down, man. There's a huge hockey board today, and
5:15
Speaker 1: I do have opinions here. The plays that I have
5:19
Speaker 1: are horrendous looking. First game up is Utah-Montreal. Montreal's coming
5:25
Speaker 1: up that game against Winnipeg last. One thing I forgot
5:28
Speaker 1: to mention with that game was that was sort of
5:31
Speaker 1: a revenge game for Winnipeg, if you want to call
5:33
Speaker 1: it that, because Montreal beat Winnipeg in the... Heritage Classic
5:38
Speaker 1: outdoor game a couple weeks ago or whenever it was.
5:41
Speaker 1: It feels like it wasn't that long ago. That was
5:43
Speaker 1: in Winnipeg in an outdoor stadium. That was a big,
5:48
Speaker 1: you know, a hyped game, whatever, and Montreal was able
5:51
Speaker 1: to go in there and get the win. So this game,
5:54
Speaker 1: I think, meant a decent amount to Winnipeg here. Montreal
5:57
Speaker 1: blew a 4-0 lead in this game, actually. Winnipeg made
6:02
Speaker 1: one of the most insane comebacks that you'll ever see.
6:06
Speaker 1: and Winnipeg outshot Montreal in this game like 47 to
6:10
Speaker 1: 22 probably or something like that so Winnipeg dominated the
6:13
Speaker 1: shot battle although a lot of that was because they
6:16
Speaker 1: were down 4-0 you know you start getting super desperate
6:20
Speaker 1: but they were able to tie the game and then
6:21
Speaker 1: win the game I think in overtime um is that
6:25
Speaker 1: going to affect Montreal coming into this game I mean
6:28
Speaker 1: it might uh Winnipeg, I mean, it's not a good team,
6:32
Speaker 1: so it's a bad loss for Montreal. Sometimes when you
6:35
Speaker 1: lose as a big favorite like that, you will bounce back,
6:37
Speaker 1: but I don't know. The way that that game played out,
6:39
Speaker 1: it was really epic in a way, so I don't know.
6:42
Speaker 1: Montreal might be a little bit flat coming off of that,
6:44
Speaker 1: plus they lost a five-game win streak. Sometimes when you
6:47
Speaker 1: lose a win streak like that, that will hang you
6:49
Speaker 1: over into the next game. Montreal does have Toronto on deck,
6:53
Speaker 1: and while Toronto, I think, has been pretty mediocre here,
6:57
Speaker 1: that is a rivalry. I mean, I believe it's a
6:59
Speaker 1: divisional rivalry. matchup as well and those two teams don't
7:02
Speaker 1: like each other Utah maybe a little bit under the
7:05
Speaker 1: radar right now we got a win with them the
7:07
Speaker 1: other day against the Maple Leafs so we got that
7:10
Speaker 1: one right I'm gonna like I think I'm gonna lean
7:12
Speaker 1: Utah again here in this one they're finishing up the
7:15
Speaker 1: road trip here they do have a chance to go
7:17
Speaker 1: three and one on the road trip but yeah the
7:20
Speaker 1: spot to me I don't know you could argue it's
7:22
Speaker 1: a bounce back from Montreal but I think it looks
7:24
Speaker 1: kind of tricky for Montreal really Montreal's got 68 percent
7:28
Speaker 1: of the tickets on them 54% of the cash on Utah,
7:32
Speaker 1: so the money indicating on Utah, at least for now,
7:34
Speaker 1: and not only that, but Utah's a favorite here on
7:38
Speaker 1: the road, so that's a little bit crazy to see,
7:42
Speaker 1: because Montreal's got a really good record here, a better
7:44
Speaker 1: record than Utah, and to see that the odds makers
7:47
Speaker 1: are telling you that Utah is better than Montreal to
7:50
Speaker 1: the extent that they're favored on the road, I mean,
7:53
Speaker 1: that is, and it's not a back-to-back for Montreal or
7:56
Speaker 1: anything here either, so that is that stood out to me.
8:00
Speaker 1: I'm like, wow. Like I did not expect Utah to
8:02
Speaker 1: be a favorite in this one. I thought Montreal would
8:04
Speaker 1: be like a small favorite here. So I don't know.
8:06
Speaker 1: That is indicative of something. Uh, odds makers kind of
8:10
Speaker 1: signaling to you. See, I would lean towards Utah here. Um,
8:14
Speaker 1: they're about a minus one 20 something favorite here. That's
8:18
Speaker 1: pretty much all I got in that game. The best
8:22
Speaker 1: way to grow. Yeah. 55 to 500. You still got
8:25
Speaker 1: to do it slow. In my opinion. Um, You got to,
8:29
Speaker 1: you know, again, like I say, make your unit size 10%.
8:33
Speaker 1: Make every one of your bets. Make your unit size 1%,
8:38
Speaker 1: excuse me, of what you have in your bankroll. I
8:43
Speaker 1: make every bet like a 3% bet, though. That's just
8:46
Speaker 1: how I do it. So, like, you know, so whatever
8:49
Speaker 1: that would come out to. So, like, 1% for you
8:51
Speaker 1: right now is what? Like, what are we talking about here?
8:56
Speaker 1: 55 cents? Did I do that math right? Yeah, so
9:00
Speaker 1: I would say each one of your bets right now
9:03
Speaker 1: would be three times that size, so whatever that would be.
9:08
Speaker 1: What is that? 165? Did I do that math right?
9:13
Speaker 2: 165?
9:13
Speaker 1: Not 165. You're going to have small bets, right? And
9:18
Speaker 1: just grow the bankroll slowly, but the good thing about
9:21
Speaker 1: it is if you're up, then your bet size becomes
9:24
Speaker 1: bigger and you have a chance to win more, right?
9:26
Speaker 1: And that's the The whole thing is to grow it slowly,
9:29
Speaker 1: but as your bankroll grows, the size of your bet
9:32
Speaker 1: also grows with it. You know what I mean? So
9:35
Speaker 1: you'll be able to grow it faster as your bankroll grows,
9:39
Speaker 1: if that makes sense. So, I mean, that's the way
9:41
Speaker 1: I recommend it, a small grind, because like getting rich quick,
9:45
Speaker 1: like you have to get lucky. That's just it. So
9:49
Speaker 1: it's like, do you want to really actually try to
9:51
Speaker 1: play the lottery? um you know i don't recommend it
9:55
Speaker 1: so yeah i recommend the uh the daily grind i
9:58
Speaker 1: mean that's just it's ugly it's annoying uh yeah it's
10:03
Speaker 1: effort but you know it is what it is uh
10:05
Speaker 1: vegas at detroit here vegas just beat the penguins the
10:10
Speaker 1: other day i'm not sure that's really that big of
10:12
Speaker 1: a deal really uh detroit uh let me say I
10:17
Speaker 1: did look at all these games earlier, too. Detroit just
10:19
Speaker 1: took a loss to the Lightning, and I believe they
10:21
Speaker 1: were within one goal of the Lightning late, and they're
10:23
Speaker 1: technically returning home from a road trip, although it was
10:25
Speaker 1: only a two-game road trip to Florida where they played
10:28
Speaker 1: both Florida teams. But that's still, it's a big road trip.
10:32
Speaker 1: I mean, they beat Florida and then lost to the
10:35
Speaker 1: Lightning in a somewhat close game. So coming off of
10:37
Speaker 1: those big games, yeah, I know the Knights are also
10:40
Speaker 1: a pretty good team, but I don't think the spot
10:41
Speaker 1: looks that good to me for Detroit here. So I
10:44
Speaker 1: think I would fade Detroit in this one. I think
10:47
Speaker 1: I would lean towards Vegas. Vegas just coming off the
10:50
Speaker 1: easier performance, and I think their travel spot is actually
10:53
Speaker 1: a little bit easier as well. Technically a return home
10:56
Speaker 1: spot for Detroit, where sometimes you get a little bit
10:59
Speaker 1: distracted maybe, even though they only were away for two days, though.
11:03
Speaker 1: Vegas looks public, which doesn't surprise me. 84% of the tickets,
11:06
Speaker 1: 89% of the money, though. I mean, they read as
11:10
Speaker 1: a public side. It is possible the real money is
11:13
Speaker 1: coming in on their side, though. I can't really tell.
11:15
Speaker 1: right now because the line hasn't really moved, but it's
11:18
Speaker 1: in the minus 140-something range. Still in that price range
11:21
Speaker 1: where you could play the money line on Vegas. That
11:25
Speaker 1: probably would be my lean in that one. Not that
11:28
Speaker 1: strong of an opinion, though. Chicago is on a four-game
11:33
Speaker 1: losing streak. They're playing Tampa Bay here. Chicago, they're coming
11:37
Speaker 1: off a game against Florida where I believe they played
11:40
Speaker 1: fairly tough in that game. I think it was a
11:42
Speaker 1: close game statistically to some extent, and I believe Florida
11:46
Speaker 1: was only down by one goal later in that game.
11:50
Speaker 1: So to me, I would worry about how much Florida
11:52
Speaker 1: has left in the tank, plus they're actually on a
11:54
Speaker 1: back to back, or excuse me, what Chicago has left
11:57
Speaker 1: in the tank here. I would worry about that. They're
11:59
Speaker 1: also on a back to back. They're playing a third
12:01
Speaker 1: game in four days here. all in different cities. And while, yeah,
12:04
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay is a good team, you're not going to
12:06
Speaker 1: overlook them. But the lack of rest here for Chicago,
12:10
Speaker 1: plus the fact that yesterday's game was big, that is
12:14
Speaker 1: a concern for sure. So I think I would actually
12:16
Speaker 1: be leaning towards Tampa in this one. Tampa is rested.
12:19
Speaker 1: They're coming off an easy win over Detroit in their
12:21
Speaker 1: last game, pretty much. I mean, Detroit's just not that
12:23
Speaker 1: good of a team. Tampa does have Minnesota on deck
12:26
Speaker 1: to start a road trip. So I guess there is
12:28
Speaker 1: the worry of a look ahead there. But I think
12:30
Speaker 1: I'd be leaning towards the lightning in some capacity in
12:33
Speaker 1: this game if I was going to do anything with it,
12:35
Speaker 1: which I will not be. Tampa Bay has 87% of
12:39
Speaker 1: the tickets. No surprise, they're a public side. 95% of
12:43
Speaker 1: the cash. The problem is, because this is a mismatch
12:46
Speaker 1: and Chicago's on the back-to-back, Tampa Bay is one of
12:50
Speaker 1: the heaviest prices you're going to see in hockey. Minus $ 425. Clearly,
12:55
Speaker 1: you cannot do anything with that. You cannot play Tampa
12:59
Speaker 1: Bay on the money line or lay you know a
13:01
Speaker 1: puck line we're gonna they're gonna have to win the
13:03
Speaker 1: game by two goals or more no you can't do
13:06
Speaker 1: that by more than two yeah like that's not an
13:10
Speaker 1: option like this is an unplayable line on Tampa Bay
13:14
Speaker 1: what you could do though if you do like Tampa
13:16
Speaker 1: Bay is the money is coming in on the over
13:19
Speaker 1: so you could play Tampa Bay's team total over which
13:22
Speaker 1: makes some sense because Chicago they're gonna have to switch
13:25
Speaker 1: back to a Soderblom and Nett here I think Knight
13:28
Speaker 1: is their Usual goal and I think he played yesterday
13:31
Speaker 1: So you get probably a little bit of a downgrade
13:33
Speaker 1: in Chicago's goaltending plus Chicago having played yesterday in a
13:36
Speaker 1: tough game their defense Could be a little bit lacking
13:40
Speaker 1: here just because of the fatigue factor the lack of
13:42
Speaker 1: rest So Tampa Bay to go over their team total
13:46
Speaker 1: in this one Maybe the better approach because you just
13:48
Speaker 1: can't play Tampa, you know Really in any way I
13:52
Speaker 1: mean you could get the price down on Tampa if
13:53
Speaker 1: you want to play them to win the game in
13:55
Speaker 1: regulation or something like that That is an option But
13:59
Speaker 1: if you're going to do that and play that as
14:01
Speaker 1: a money line play, it's still going to be a
14:04
Speaker 1: really high price on it. I'm imagining it's probably going
14:07
Speaker 1: to be like minus, maybe even up close to minus 200.
14:11
Speaker 1: That's still an insane number. So it's probably a little
14:15
Speaker 1: bit less than that, but still. Yeah, I think Tampa
14:18
Speaker 1: over team total might be the way to play that game.
14:21
Speaker 1: Next game up is going to be one of my plays.
14:23
Speaker 1: And like I said, you're not going to like any
14:25
Speaker 1: of this, but this is the way we do things
14:27
Speaker 1: here on the show. we're going to take the St.
14:32
Speaker 1: Louis Blues as a split bet here, puck line, money line,
14:36
Speaker 1: basically making your own plus one puck line on this.
14:40
Speaker 1: The puck line at the plus one and a half
14:41
Speaker 1: is around minus 150, and the money line is around
14:44
Speaker 1: plus 170. So the way that you do this is
14:47
Speaker 1: you split the bet such that if they lose by one,
14:50
Speaker 1: you will push the bet. So you put a certain
14:53
Speaker 1: percentage of it on the minus part of it and
14:57
Speaker 1: then whatever that's going to return you put that same
14:59
Speaker 1: amount on the money line part of it that makes
15:02
Speaker 1: if that makes sense i do have the calculator up
15:04
Speaker 1: but because i did this with another game too this
15:08
Speaker 1: is the calculation for that other game um you know
15:11
Speaker 1: if it's out of 100 the number on on this
15:13
Speaker 1: one's going to be a little bit more skewed than
15:15
Speaker 1: this one is uh but the um The split on
15:19
Speaker 1: this game, I think, is closer to putting about 60%
15:22
Speaker 1: of the bet on the minus part of this, on
15:25
Speaker 1: the St. Louis part of this. But I like the spot, man.
15:28
Speaker 1: You've got to find a way to play these underdogs
15:30
Speaker 1: kind of creatively. Or if you wanted to just play
15:32
Speaker 1: the money line, you could. I prefer it this way
15:39
Speaker 1: when you have an underdog of this price. I'll play
15:40
Speaker 1: the underdog on the money line if they're below plus
15:44
Speaker 1: 140 is pretty much where I do the cutoff. And
15:47
Speaker 1: then if it's If they're a bigger underdog than that,
15:49
Speaker 1: I start looking towards making a plus one puck line
15:52
Speaker 1: out of it. So if they lose by exactly one,
15:54
Speaker 1: you'll split the bet. And there's a decent shot of
15:56
Speaker 1: that here. But I think this is a bad spot
15:59
Speaker 1: for the New Jersey Devils here. They're coming up with
16:01
Speaker 1: that monster win over the Oilers in their last game.
16:04
Speaker 1: That was a tough game, and they had to go
16:06
Speaker 1: all the way to a shootout to get that win.
16:09
Speaker 1: And they're coming off a couple of other big games.
16:11
Speaker 1: They've played four big games in a row. They had
16:14
Speaker 1: a road trip, but they beat Dallas, had to go
16:16
Speaker 1: to Colorado the next day and lost that one, as
16:20
Speaker 1: probably expected. Then they turned around and beat Vegas, had
16:24
Speaker 1: a little bit of rest coming back home, didn't suffer
16:27
Speaker 1: the distraction spot in the return home spot, beat Edmonton
16:30
Speaker 1: in the shootout. Huge win, and yes, I do realize
16:32
Speaker 1: the Devils are 3-0 with Hellebuck. in net since they
16:36
Speaker 1: picked him up they've won every game with him in
16:37
Speaker 1: net and i assume he will be there again tonight
16:40
Speaker 1: because they do have a day off so i assume
16:42
Speaker 1: they're using him again here but this just looks like
16:44
Speaker 1: a spot where they're not going to pay enough attention
16:46
Speaker 1: to a western conference team that isn't really one of
16:49
Speaker 1: the better ones st louis but st louis is a
16:51
Speaker 1: competitive team and teams can kind of get caught when
16:55
Speaker 1: they overlook them like the bruins did the other day So, yeah,
16:59
Speaker 1: I think this is a spot where, yeah, the focus
17:01
Speaker 1: may not be there for the Devils, and they're playing
17:03
Speaker 1: a capable opponent here, and the Devils may even actually
17:06
Speaker 1: look ahead. They have the Islanders next. I know the
17:09
Speaker 1: Islanders aren't great, but that's a divisional matchup next, and
17:12
Speaker 1: the Islanders, I think, are only about I don't know,
17:15
Speaker 1: five points behind them in the standings or something. So, yeah,
17:18
Speaker 1: to me, this looks like the down spot in the schedule. Plus,
17:21
Speaker 1: it's pretty clearly a major letdown spot for the Devils here.
17:24
Speaker 1: So we're going to go with the St. Louis Blues.
17:27
Speaker 1: The Blues are already in the New York area, so
17:29
Speaker 1: their travel isn't going to be that bad here. They've
17:32
Speaker 1: had the same amount of rest, pretty much. They just
17:34
Speaker 1: lost ugly to the New York Rangers in their last game.
17:37
Speaker 1: Not a good loss. The Rangers... Not great and not
17:40
Speaker 1: playing well right now. So St. Louis may be in
17:43
Speaker 1: bounce back mode here. It's possible they were looking ahead
17:45
Speaker 1: to this game already because the Devils have been one
17:48
Speaker 1: of the better teams in the league. So yeah, this
17:51
Speaker 1: is going to be a game where I feel like St.
17:53
Speaker 1: Louis is going to get up for this and the
17:55
Speaker 1: motivation is going to be questionable on the Devils side.
17:57
Speaker 1: So we will try to exercise the Devils here in
18:03
Speaker 1: this game and we'll go with the Blues. The Devils
18:05
Speaker 1: are a very public side here. 91% of the tickets,
18:08
Speaker 1: 95% of the money on them. They're a huge favorite,
18:12
Speaker 1: as I sort of already indicated. They're minus 190 or
18:15
Speaker 1: so here. So I think the way to play this
18:17
Speaker 1: is to split the bet, like I said, puck line,
18:20
Speaker 1: money line on this one. And yeah, I mean, that's
18:24
Speaker 1: what I prefer to do. Some books do just offer this, though,
18:27
Speaker 1: if you wanted to simplify it and do it that way.
18:29
Speaker 1: Some books will offer you the plus one puck line,
18:32
Speaker 1: but you get a better price when you split it
18:34
Speaker 1: this way because you can make each bet at a
18:36
Speaker 1: different book. Like, the same book sometimes will not have,
18:41
Speaker 1: will not be the book that has the best price
18:42
Speaker 1: in both of these markets because they're separate markets. So, like,
18:46
Speaker 1: when I do a bet like this, I think typically because, well,
18:49
Speaker 1: because I have so many books available, typically I'm going
18:51
Speaker 1: to find, this is going to be a bet split
18:54
Speaker 1: across two different books typically for me. Like, I find
18:57
Speaker 1: the better money line price at one book and the
18:59
Speaker 1: better puck line price in another book. So, yeah, but
19:02
Speaker 1: that's the play. Blues split bet there. Um, uh, it
19:12
Speaker 1: depends like what, I mean, you're talking about just, you're
19:15
Speaker 1: talking about money lines. You're talking about juice. I got,
19:18
Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, I just look for spots. Like,
19:20
Speaker 1: I don't know. I try to gauge the price depending
19:23
Speaker 1: on what I'm doing. Like, uh, I might go up
19:26
Speaker 1: to about them. I mean, obviously I prefer plus one
19:29
Speaker 1: 20 on any given bet. Obviously I want a better price. So, yeah,
19:33
Speaker 1: I mean, I prefer that underdog price generally better. It
19:36
Speaker 1: depends on what I'm betting. Like if you're just talking
19:39
Speaker 1: about like a money line play, I'm going to typically
19:42
Speaker 1: be on more underdogs than favorites because the public tends
19:45
Speaker 1: to lean favorites. So I'm i'm going to have more
19:47
Speaker 1: underdogs than favorites typically but it depends but then i
19:51
Speaker 1: don't know i would counter that a little bit if
19:53
Speaker 1: we're talking about money lines because if you are playing
19:56
Speaker 1: a favorite that's going against the public that's one of
19:58
Speaker 1: the best things you could do uh because you're getting
20:01
Speaker 1: supposedly at least the better team plus the public doesn't
20:04
Speaker 1: even want them so um i don't know if that
20:07
Speaker 1: answers that question or not but um Yeah. I mean,
20:12
Speaker 1: difficult to answer that question. Like if you're talking about juice,
20:14
Speaker 1: then yeah, obviously I'd prefer to not pay as much juice,
20:17
Speaker 1: but sometimes I will like to get on, especially to get,
20:21
Speaker 1: you know, on the right side of a key number
20:23
Speaker 1: in football, paying up to like minus one 20 will
20:25
Speaker 1: make sense to do that around, you know, the numbers
20:28
Speaker 1: of three and seven, especially, uh, all right. The next
20:32
Speaker 1: hockey game here is the Hulu, uh, Disney plus game,
20:35
Speaker 1: which is I don't know if it's necessarily the greatest
20:39
Speaker 1: game here on the board, but it's Carolina. They are
20:42
Speaker 1: really good. Carolina at the Islanders here. Carolina did just
20:46
Speaker 1: lose a win streak. They lost a four game win
20:48
Speaker 1: streak with an ugly loss to the Predators. So, you know,
20:52
Speaker 1: sometimes that loss will hang you over into the next game.
20:56
Speaker 1: if you lose a win streak like that, but it
20:58
Speaker 1: was such a bad loss. I don't know. To me,
21:00
Speaker 1: it kind of reads as like Carolina probably is going
21:03
Speaker 1: to bounce back from that. And they don't have a
21:04
Speaker 1: big game on deck either. I guess they have, they
21:07
Speaker 1: play Chicago. Then they have to, uh, they do have
21:09
Speaker 1: to travel to Finland. I'm pretty sure is what this
21:12
Speaker 1: is to play Seattle after that. Um, but yeah, I
21:16
Speaker 1: don't think they'll be looking ahead to that yet. This
21:17
Speaker 1: will be a big game, though, for both teams. I
21:20
Speaker 1: think the Islanders are definitely going to be focused, too,
21:22
Speaker 1: because they just had a bad game. They were in
21:24
Speaker 1: a bad spot in a return home spot off of
21:27
Speaker 1: beating the Wild as well, so they had a big
21:30
Speaker 1: win plus the return home spot in their last game,
21:33
Speaker 1: and the Oilers took advantage of that and beat them,
21:36
Speaker 1: which does not surprise me, even though I think the
21:39
Speaker 1: professional money was actually taking the Islanders in that game. Yeah,
21:42
Speaker 1: I think it probably was actually fading the Oilers in
21:44
Speaker 1: that one. I disagreed if that was the case. I
21:47
Speaker 1: leaned Oilers in that game. But now what you have
21:49
Speaker 1: is the Islanders are coming up getting shut out at home.
21:52
Speaker 1: And that's a good thing to look for in hockey.
21:53
Speaker 1: And when a team gets shut out at home, it's
21:56
Speaker 1: an embarrassing loss, even if it was to a good team.
21:58
Speaker 1: Usually teams bounce back from that. But it's a double
22:02
Speaker 1: bounce back for the Islanders because when a team loses
22:05
Speaker 1: in a return home spot like that, a lot of
22:08
Speaker 1: times it's because they weren't focused. They got distracted by
22:11
Speaker 1: being back home, whatever. And then the next game after that,
22:14
Speaker 1: they do tend to play better in that game as well.
22:17
Speaker 1: So I'm going to be leaning towards the Islanders in
22:20
Speaker 1: this one, even though I think both teams are in
22:21
Speaker 1: focus spots here. You know that you're not going to
22:25
Speaker 1: get any value, at least on the number with the Hurricanes,
22:28
Speaker 1: because everybody knows how good they are. They're the returning champs, whatever.
22:32
Speaker 1: The Islanders won't overlook them, even though the Islanders do
22:34
Speaker 1: have a huge game against the Devils on deck as well.
22:37
Speaker 1: Islanders are having to play four big games in a row, really, which...
22:41
Speaker 1: Not the greatest scheduling for them, but yeah, Carolina's a
22:45
Speaker 1: very public side. 92% of the tickets, 93% of the
22:48
Speaker 1: cash on them. The number went up a little bit
22:52
Speaker 1: into the minus 170s here, but I would be leaning
22:54
Speaker 1: towards the Islanders here on a split bet again, probably
22:58
Speaker 1: on the partial puck line, partial money line here or
23:01
Speaker 1: something of that nature. Lean towards the Islanders for me
23:05
Speaker 1: in that one slightly. No, the juice is like the VIG.
23:12
Speaker 1: It might be juicy as well. Juicy means the opposite, actually,
23:16
Speaker 1: when you're talking about juice. The juice is the extra
23:20
Speaker 1: price that the book is charging you to make the play.
23:24
Speaker 1: It's the same thing as the vig, pretty much, which
23:27
Speaker 1: basically means the books have to make money, right? So
23:30
Speaker 1: the books... They want to split the action more or less.
23:35
Speaker 1: So they would prefer it to be an even split
23:38
Speaker 1: of the action on both sides. And if that's the case,
23:40
Speaker 1: they're going to make money. And that's because they charge
23:42
Speaker 1: you 11 to win 10. They charge you minus 110.
23:46
Speaker 1: If you're betting like a spread, that's the typical price.
23:49
Speaker 1: They'll charge you minus 110 to bet either side of
23:51
Speaker 1: that price. And that's how they guarantee themselves they're going
23:54
Speaker 1: to make money. Because if that's the case and they
23:56
Speaker 1: split the action even 50-50 on both sides, then they
23:59
Speaker 1: don't even care who wins either. as far as that
24:03
Speaker 1: bet is concerned, right? They're going to make money on
24:06
Speaker 1: it because they charged you the VIG. So that's what
24:10
Speaker 1: the bookmakers are trying to do. Although obviously you're going
24:12
Speaker 1: to see lopsided action and a whole number of games.
24:15
Speaker 1: And that, you know, brings up a whole other conversation
24:18
Speaker 1: that I talk about a lot where it's like the
24:19
Speaker 1: books are just, they know when they're going to have
24:22
Speaker 1: lopsided action on one side and sometimes they're okay with it.
24:24
Speaker 1: And they're just kind of taking a stand and thinking
24:27
Speaker 1: that there's a decent chance they're going to take a
24:29
Speaker 1: lot of money away from the public on some of
24:31
Speaker 1: those games so and obviously they're they're what they're doing
24:35
Speaker 1: works because they're profiting obviously so um but yeah it's
24:39
Speaker 1: it's um the vig um is what that is um
24:44
Speaker 1: so yeah it does not mean that it's tempting it
24:47
Speaker 1: means the opposite i don't know why a stream yard
24:49
Speaker 1: is not uh graying that uh that comment out it
24:52
Speaker 1: usually grays it out after you bring it up on
24:54
Speaker 1: screen i don't know what's going on with that but
24:56
Speaker 1: I don't know if that makes sense. I don't know,
24:58
Speaker 1: but yeah, it's, it's the price that's attached to the
25:00
Speaker 1: bet that you're making. Cause the Oz makers have to
25:03
Speaker 1: charge you something cause that's how they make their money.
25:05
Speaker 1: So that's why in this business you have to overcome that.
25:09
Speaker 1: Like you can't just win more than 50% of your bets.
25:12
Speaker 1: You have to win enough to overcome that juice, the vague.
25:15
Speaker 1: So you actually have to win like 54% more or
25:19
Speaker 1: less here to actually profit here, uh, at that price,
25:22
Speaker 1: if that makes sense. So, um, Yeah, that's what the
25:25
Speaker 1: juice is. Same thing as the vague. I mean, I
25:28
Speaker 1: use those terms interchangeably. Maybe some people will have an
25:31
Speaker 1: issue with that. But no, I mean, yeah, that's what
25:34
Speaker 1: it means. Different from juicy as in tempting. That would
25:38
Speaker 1: be different. Yeah. And if something is juicy, it usually
25:43
Speaker 1: means it's heavily priced, which is usually not a good thing.
25:47
Speaker 1: All right. Philadelphia at the New York Rangers. We know
25:51
Speaker 1: the Rangers are coming off that loss that I just
25:53
Speaker 1: talked about. Philadelphia is coming off a loss to the
25:55
Speaker 1: Wild where... That was kind of a bigger game. I
25:58
Speaker 1: think they might have played okay in that game as well.
26:00
Speaker 1: They lost by two. Now they've got to swing over
26:03
Speaker 1: and play the Rangers, who are not having a great
26:05
Speaker 1: season at this point. The Rangers did just end a
26:07
Speaker 1: losing streak, though. They had four losses in a row.
26:10
Speaker 1: I thought they had lost their last game. That's not right.
26:11
Speaker 1: They beat the Blues. That's right. That was part of
26:14
Speaker 1: the handicap on the Blues. We're going to take the
26:16
Speaker 1: Blues after they lost that game. But the fact that
26:18
Speaker 1: the Rangers had a win that's not going to make
26:20
Speaker 1: them overconfident and they ended a long losing streak there,
26:25
Speaker 1: I think I actually prefer the Rangers in this game.
26:27
Speaker 1: And let me make sure none of these other teams
26:31
Speaker 1: I've talked about are on back-to-backs here. I know Chicago,
26:33
Speaker 1: I think Chicago's the only team on a back-to-back today.
26:37
Speaker 1: Even though there are a lot of teams in action today,
26:38
Speaker 1: I think they're the only one. All right. Yeah, so
26:42
Speaker 1: I prefer the Rangers in this game. I think they
26:44
Speaker 1: ended their long, or sort of long-ish losing streak, if
26:48
Speaker 1: you want to call it that. Possible new momentum for
26:50
Speaker 1: them there. Phillies coming off a little bit of a
26:52
Speaker 1: tougher game. The Rangers are favored at around minus 150 here,
26:58
Speaker 1: although the numbers actually dropped on them. The money is
27:00
Speaker 1: disagreeing with me on this. The money's coming in on
27:02
Speaker 1: the Flyers. 79% of the tickets are on the Rangers.
27:05
Speaker 1: I'm kind of surprised the Rangers would be this public,
27:08
Speaker 1: even though I think their record is a little bit
27:09
Speaker 1: better than Philly's. I wouldn't really expect the public to
27:13
Speaker 1: want to lay about minus 150 with the Rangers when
27:15
Speaker 1: they're not playing well. So I don't know. 61% of
27:18
Speaker 1: the cash on Philly. So the money is coming in
27:21
Speaker 1: on the flyer side, but I kind of disagree with
27:23
Speaker 1: that one. But that one is definitely not a strong
27:26
Speaker 1: opinion for me. This next game up, I almost put
27:29
Speaker 1: on the card, though. Boston at Pittsburgh. I think this
27:31
Speaker 1: is a bad spot for my Boston Bruins, who are
27:35
Speaker 1: playing well. The Bruins have this pretty young core. And
27:39
Speaker 1: they're doing well, man, like James Hagen, their draft pick.
27:42
Speaker 1: Is it Hagen or Hagens? Whatever. He's a small dude.
27:45
Speaker 1: He's looking good. Swayman has been an excellent goalie for
27:48
Speaker 1: them so far. So they got their like experienced leaders
27:52
Speaker 1: are doing well, like Swayman and Pasternak and whatever. And
27:56
Speaker 1: McAvoy at this point, I suppose, is one of the
27:58
Speaker 1: better defenders in the league. So the Bruins have been
28:00
Speaker 1: all right. I mean, a lot better than they were
28:02
Speaker 1: expected to be. Are they as good as their record
28:05
Speaker 1: would suggest? I don't really think so, but now they're
28:07
Speaker 1: coming off a big win over Vegas where Bruins had
28:10
Speaker 1: a 2-0 lead in that game. They blew the entire lead,
28:13
Speaker 1: and then they won in a shootout at the very
28:15
Speaker 1: end of the shootout, which I think it was going
28:17
Speaker 1: to have to go into extra shootout legs or whatever
28:21
Speaker 1: because no team had scored a goal up until the
28:23
Speaker 1: third round, I guess, of the shootout, and Pasternak scored
28:27
Speaker 1: to win it. That was a huge, dramatic win for
28:30
Speaker 1: the Bruins against Vegas. the team that won the West
28:32
Speaker 1: last year. So I think this is a bad spot
28:34
Speaker 1: for the Bruins after that. They have a couple of
28:36
Speaker 1: days off, but I think that win is still simmering.
28:39
Speaker 1: And now they have this weird road trip where they
28:41
Speaker 1: have to play a single game out here in Pittsburgh
28:43
Speaker 1: against a team that is kind of easy to overlook
28:46
Speaker 1: right now. And then after that, the Bruins have to
28:47
Speaker 1: play Florida, Montreal, and Minnesota all in a row. And
28:51
Speaker 1: all of those games are bigger. You know, we know
28:54
Speaker 1: how good Florida's been in recent years. Montreal is one
28:56
Speaker 1: of the Bruins' main rivals and an original sixth rival,
29:00
Speaker 1: debatably the Bruins' biggest rival. And they're playing well, so
29:03
Speaker 1: that's a big game as well. Minnesota, kind of a
29:06
Speaker 1: big game too. So this looks like the flat spot
29:08
Speaker 1: in the Bruins' schedule here. I do like this one,
29:13
Speaker 1: but my concern with it is that Pittsburgh is coming
29:16
Speaker 1: off a big game as well, also against the Knights.
29:18
Speaker 1: And that was after they played a pretty tough game
29:21
Speaker 1: against Montreal. So they're playing some of these similar opponents here.
29:25
Speaker 1: They're on a three-game losing streak, but I just worry
29:27
Speaker 1: a little bit about the hangover for them after that
29:29
Speaker 1: because those are two big games as well. But I
29:33
Speaker 1: am definitely leaning towards Pittsburgh in this one. This is
29:37
Speaker 1: one of the stronger opinions I have. I have two opinions.
29:39
Speaker 1: that are really strong in my opinion that do not
29:43
Speaker 1: make the cut for me today and this is one
29:45
Speaker 1: of them I like the Penguins in this one the
29:48
Speaker 1: Bruins I mean I hope not because I'm a fan
29:51
Speaker 1: of the Bruins but this is just the way that
29:52
Speaker 1: it is the handicapping leads me to it the Bruins
29:55
Speaker 1: are definitely a public side 88% of the tickets are
29:57
Speaker 1: 93% of the money on them, and it's a pick-em price.
30:02
Speaker 1: So the oddsmakers are telling you the Bruins aren't that
30:05
Speaker 1: much better than the Penguins here. I think both teams
30:08
Speaker 1: are probably not as good as people think they are, really,
30:10
Speaker 1: but it's very telling that the Bruins have the way
30:13
Speaker 1: better record, and they're almost an underdog on this line here,
30:17
Speaker 1: so that makes it look really tempting. Not juicy, but tempting.
30:20
Speaker 1: It'll look tempting to the public, so they'll want to
30:24
Speaker 1: play the Bruins as an underdog here. Oh my God,
30:27
Speaker 1: I'm getting the team with the better record that just
30:29
Speaker 1: beat Vegas as the underdog here. Yeah, it looks way
30:31
Speaker 1: too easy to do that. So I'm pretty certain that
30:35
Speaker 1: the Penguins are the right side in that one. Although
30:38
Speaker 1: I have, you know, that one concern is kind of
30:40
Speaker 1: keeping me staying off of that game. But I do
30:43
Speaker 1: like the Penguins in that one. I feel pretty strongly
30:45
Speaker 1: about that. Dallas is at Columbus. Dallas is coming off
30:50
Speaker 1: a pretty good win over the Capitals, a high scoring win.
30:54
Speaker 1: So not necessarily the greatest spot for Dallas here. That
30:56
Speaker 1: was a good win at Washington. Now they're playing a
30:59
Speaker 1: Columbus team that they just beat in the game before that,
31:02
Speaker 1: so they may not really fully pay attention to Columbus here. Columbus, though,
31:06
Speaker 1: they're coming off an even better win where they smoked
31:08
Speaker 1: the Avalanche 7-2, and that was a game where I
31:10
Speaker 1: talked about how both teams I felt were in bad
31:13
Speaker 1: spots there, and I liked the over in that game,
31:16
Speaker 1: and that did happen. I should have put it on
31:17
Speaker 1: the card. That was... That was an easy win if
31:19
Speaker 1: you played the over on that one. 7-2 win for
31:23
Speaker 1: Columbus there coming off of that. This could be a
31:25
Speaker 1: major letdown for them, even though they're not going to
31:27
Speaker 1: overlook Dallas. I mean, Dallas is a good team, but
31:30
Speaker 1: how do you get up for two games in a
31:33
Speaker 1: row like this after you beat the Avs like that?
31:35
Speaker 1: It's not going to be that easy to do. I think, again,
31:37
Speaker 1: both teams look like they're in bad spots here. So
31:40
Speaker 1: I think I would be looking towards the over in
31:42
Speaker 1: this game again here. Even though I don't love the
31:44
Speaker 1: over as much in a Dallas game because they do
31:47
Speaker 1: tend to play lower scoring games. The money does agree
31:50
Speaker 1: with this, apparently. 69% of the tickets on the over,
31:52
Speaker 1: 94% of the money on the over, though. Total is low.
31:57
Speaker 1: It's a 5.5 total, which is one of the lowest
31:59
Speaker 1: you're going to get in hockey. And that's, again, because
32:02
Speaker 1: Dallas is one of the better defensive teams. They have
32:05
Speaker 1: a good goaltender there, Ottinger. I'm assuming he will be
32:07
Speaker 1: playing again here today. So my concerns with it would
32:12
Speaker 1: be that Dallas is a good defensive team. So that
32:15
Speaker 1: is where I get concerned about this. But I do
32:17
Speaker 1: still like the over. Columbus is not that good defensively.
32:21
Speaker 1: They do give up a fair amount of goals. Their
32:23
Speaker 1: goaltending isn't really that good. Both teams in kind of
32:25
Speaker 1: bad spots, where they're going to be either unfocused, which
32:28
Speaker 1: I think might be the case with Dallas here, or
32:31
Speaker 1: fatigued possibly, which I think might be the case with Columbus.
32:35
Speaker 1: All that can impact the defense for the most part negatively.
32:38
Speaker 1: So yeah, lean for me would be over in this one.
32:41
Speaker 1: I don't feel as good about it as I felt
32:43
Speaker 1: about that other one, though, with the Colorado one against Columbus.
32:48
Speaker 1: As far as the side, Dallas looks too easy to
32:51
Speaker 1: me to play at minus 130. They're public, 77% of
32:54
Speaker 1: the tickets, although 93% of the cash on them, too.
32:59
Speaker 1: You know, Columbus is kind of in the worst spot, though,
33:03
Speaker 1: because that win for Columbus was so good against Colorado.
33:08
Speaker 1: It's like, what is Columbus really going to have left
33:09
Speaker 1: in the tank here, whereas Dallas beating Washington is kind
33:12
Speaker 1: of like, yeah. I mean, it's a good win for sure,
33:15
Speaker 1: but I think Columbus actually is probably in the worst spot.
33:18
Speaker 1: letdown spot here you would have to think so i
33:21
Speaker 1: guess i'm not really going to disagree with the dallas
33:23
Speaker 1: side here um i probably do lean that way and
33:27
Speaker 1: the money maybe is agreeing with that even though they're
33:29
Speaker 1: going to be a somewhat public side as well it
33:32
Speaker 1: looks way too easy to play them though minus 130
33:35
Speaker 1: so i definitely don't want to do it but um
33:38
Speaker 1: yeah the over would be my preference in that one
33:43
Speaker 1: yes uh correct i i'm i'm fading the public yes
33:48
Speaker 1: um Bruins have, yeah, the majority, well, first of all,
33:51
Speaker 1: the majority of the tickets, my instinct is definitely going
33:54
Speaker 1: to be to fade wherever the majority of tickets is.
33:57
Speaker 1: That's not, like, a hard and fast rule, but generally
34:00
Speaker 1: you want to fade where the public is because the oddsmakers, like,
34:03
Speaker 1: they're okay with taking all these bets on that one side. Like,
34:07
Speaker 1: you know that if they're okay with that, they're thinking
34:09
Speaker 1: they have a good chance to beat those bets, you
34:12
Speaker 1: know what I mean? but I'm looking for more of
34:15
Speaker 1: a discrepancy really between the tickets and the money. Like
34:18
Speaker 1: if you see the actual money is not even on
34:21
Speaker 1: the same side as where the tickets are, that tells
34:23
Speaker 1: you that the professionals are going completely against the public.
34:27
Speaker 1: But in this case, I mean, also this is hockey.
34:30
Speaker 1: This is not a high volume betting sport. So the
34:33
Speaker 1: public doesn't get that involved here, which I know that
34:36
Speaker 1: kind of goes against what I'm, what I, you know,
34:39
Speaker 1: what I just said, like that could mean that, yeah,
34:40
Speaker 1: maybe there are some professional bets on Boston, but I
34:43
Speaker 1: kind of doubt it. I mean, I'm relying on my
34:46
Speaker 1: situational read here. I just think Boston is going to
34:49
Speaker 1: be a very public side. I think the spot for
34:51
Speaker 1: them is awful. So yeah, I mean, I'm mostly relying
34:55
Speaker 1: on my situational handicapping and then I use the market
34:58
Speaker 1: as like a check as well. But to me, that's
35:01
Speaker 1: not the market really disagreeing with me here. Like that's
35:03
Speaker 1: just Yeah. Uh, some of it is noise, but I
35:06
Speaker 1: think it's just really telling you the Bruins are just
35:08
Speaker 1: a massively public side for the most part there. That's
35:11
Speaker 1: how I interpret that. So, uh, but I know that
35:13
Speaker 1: the situational handicap is saying that the Bruins are in
35:16
Speaker 1: a terrible spot. So, uh, Pittsburgh has got to be
35:19
Speaker 1: the right side in that game. Now, I mean, I'm
35:23
Speaker 1: not going to get everything right, obviously, but I feel
35:26
Speaker 1: pretty strongly about that one, but I like my plays
35:29
Speaker 1: better than that one. Um, Next game up is my
35:32
Speaker 1: other play, and this one is even worse than the
35:34
Speaker 1: other one. So yeah, you can get ready for this one.
35:37
Speaker 1: Vancouver Canucks on the split bet. This is the one
35:40
Speaker 1: that I had up in the calculator here, which was
35:45
Speaker 1: putting about 55% of it on the minus 150 puck
35:49
Speaker 1: line price part of it, and then the rest on
35:52
Speaker 1: the money line. So this comes out to a plus
35:54
Speaker 1: 108 bet. price on the plus one puck line if
35:57
Speaker 1: you do the split here this way. This is what
36:00
Speaker 1: I'm recommending for this one. Again, if you want to
36:03
Speaker 1: just play the money line, you could do that. The
36:06
Speaker 1: money line's bigger in this case. But yeah, we're going
36:11
Speaker 1: to split the bet here. In my opinion here, this
36:13
Speaker 1: is the way to do it. Vancouver plus one and
36:16
Speaker 1: a half at minus 130, but that price is so
36:19
Speaker 1: close to just making it a spread bet. If you
36:20
Speaker 1: wanted to put almost the entire bet on the plus
36:24
Speaker 1: one and a half and then just put a little
36:26
Speaker 1: bit of it on the money line. I would not
36:28
Speaker 1: be opposed to doing that either. Like make it like
36:31
Speaker 1: similar to a spread bet where, you know, like I
36:33
Speaker 1: recommend just putting like 10% of the bet on the
36:35
Speaker 1: money line or whatever. I would not be opposed to
36:38
Speaker 1: doing that as well, but I'm just going to use
36:40
Speaker 1: the math and do the split bet, uh, this way, assuming, wait, hold,
36:44
Speaker 1: assuming I got the, um, Oh no, wait, hold on.
36:47
Speaker 1: I did not get the, uh, the math right there. Yeah.
36:50
Speaker 1: I was going to say it should not be 55.
36:51
Speaker 2: Yeah.
36:52
Speaker 1: Um, Yeah, so actually, this is how it comes out.
36:56
Speaker 1: This is the split here. 52% winds up on the
37:01
Speaker 1: minus 150 part. Or no, wait, I said it was
37:03
Speaker 1: minus 130. What am I doing? So I didn't even
37:06
Speaker 1: have it in there. I apologize. I don't even know
37:07
Speaker 1: what I was doing here. Wait a minute. Oh, no,
37:11
Speaker 1: I think I was showing the splits from the other one, actually.
37:14
Speaker 1: I think I put this bet in before the other one.
37:17
Speaker 1: I think I did them in the reverse order when
37:19
Speaker 1: I put them in. Yeah, like when I, yeah. All right, so, okay.
37:28
Speaker 1: Wait a minute, that's not right either. What am I
37:29
Speaker 1: doing here? Is that right? You get a plus 124,
37:34
Speaker 1: now I'm all messed up here, but yeah, I guess, yeah,
37:37
Speaker 1: I guess that does look right. Minus 130 and plus 185, yeah.
37:43
Speaker 1: I don't know, that seems a little weird to me,
37:45
Speaker 1: but yeah, I mean, I don't know, I'm trying to
37:50
Speaker 1: figure that out. That doesn't seem quite right to me,
37:52
Speaker 1: but I'll figure it out, but yeah, whatever. I mean,
37:54
Speaker 1: the split bet, it's going to be a little bit
37:56
Speaker 1: closer to like a normal spread bet on this one
37:59
Speaker 1: because it's at minus 130. So again, if you wanted
38:02
Speaker 1: to just make it a spread bet, you could do
38:03
Speaker 1: it that way too. But I like Vancouver and there
38:07
Speaker 1: are some reasons why, obviously. The main one is look
38:11
Speaker 1: at what Winnipeg just did, even though, yes, they ended
38:14
Speaker 1: a long losing streak. And sometimes when you end a
38:15
Speaker 1: losing streak, it'll get that monkey off your back and
38:18
Speaker 1: you'll have some new momentum here, but look at how
38:21
Speaker 1: bad this spot is for them otherwise. They just had
38:23
Speaker 1: that massive comeback against Montreal. Montreal's a good team, and
38:27
Speaker 1: Montreal's the team that, like I said, went into Winnipeg
38:30
Speaker 1: and beat Winnipeg in the Heritage Classic in the outdoor
38:33
Speaker 1: stadium in Winnipeg. Winnipeg was down 4-0 in this recent
38:37
Speaker 1: game at Montreal, and they were able to get their
38:40
Speaker 1: Quick revenge against them by making a massive comeback and
38:44
Speaker 1: winning in overtime. Yeah, as a big underdog, too. I mean,
38:47
Speaker 1: that was a huge win for Winnipeg. This has got
38:50
Speaker 1: to be a letdown spot. But it gets even worse
38:52
Speaker 1: for them because they're returning home from a road trip here, too,
38:55
Speaker 1: that they've been on since last Thursday. So they've been
38:59
Speaker 1: on the road for a week. So that makes it
39:01
Speaker 1: even worse. And this is Winnipeg that we're talking about here.
39:05
Speaker 1: They were down in Florida for part of the road trip.
39:08
Speaker 1: Then Carolina, then Montreal. So returning home from all that
39:11
Speaker 1: long geographic trip, long trip as far as the amount
39:15
Speaker 1: of time that they were away. Teams have to get
39:17
Speaker 1: back to home, man, and they got to do stuff.
39:19
Speaker 1: And this is a team they could definitely overlook, Vancouver.
39:23
Speaker 1: So I think that adds to the distraction here. Vancouver's
39:26
Speaker 1: a terrible team. You know, I know Winnipeg hasn't been
39:29
Speaker 1: playing well, but if they're going to overlook anybody, it's
39:31
Speaker 1: going to be a team that's one of the worst
39:34
Speaker 1: in the league, like Vancouver here. Huge letdown spot, plus
39:37
Speaker 1: the distraction spot on top of that with the return home.
39:40
Speaker 1: This is one of the worst spots you're going to
39:42
Speaker 1: find a team in. This is awful for Winnipeg here.
39:45
Speaker 1: And it's even worse than that, even, because they play
39:47
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay next, and they might get... more up for
39:50
Speaker 1: that game and it's not only is Tampa good but
39:53
Speaker 1: it's a quick revenge game there because they lost to
39:56
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay to start that road trip so I think
39:58
Speaker 1: it's going to be pretty easy for them to look
40:00
Speaker 1: right past Vancouver in this spot and after Tampa Bay
40:03
Speaker 1: they got New Jersey and Dallas after that so those
40:05
Speaker 1: are big games too Meanwhile, Vancouver's lying in wait here.
40:09
Speaker 1: Vancouver did just lose to the Ducks, whatever. Vancouver's starting
40:13
Speaker 1: a road trip here, which I think is a positive spot.
40:16
Speaker 1: When things aren't going well for you at home, Vancouver
40:18
Speaker 1: just got swept on their homestand, went 0-2 on their
40:22
Speaker 1: homestand there or whatever that was. They might have had
40:24
Speaker 1: an overtime loss in there, but whatever. When things aren't
40:27
Speaker 1: going well for you at home, one of the best
40:28
Speaker 1: things is just leave, go out on the road, focus
40:31
Speaker 1: on just hockey. leave the home distractions, forget about the noise.
40:35
Speaker 1: So I really like these spots where you can play
40:37
Speaker 1: on a team starting a road trip against a team
40:39
Speaker 1: coming back from one because you get a huge focus
40:42
Speaker 1: disparity in favor of the team starting the road trip
40:45
Speaker 1: because they're the team that's leaving those home distractions behind
40:49
Speaker 1: and focusing on that game itself, whereas the team returning
40:52
Speaker 1: home is going to potentially lack a lot of focus
40:55
Speaker 1: in that game. and be returning into those distractions. So, yeah,
40:59
Speaker 1: I like Vancouver a lot. This is probably the best
41:02
Speaker 1: play on the hockey board here. Winnipeg's hugely public, 94%
41:06
Speaker 1: of the tickets on them, 82% of the cash on Vancouver.
41:10
Speaker 1: So you can see there's a huge cash versus ticket
41:14
Speaker 1: disparity on this one, at least right now there is,
41:17
Speaker 1: which tells me that the public is only on Winnipeg
41:19
Speaker 1: pretty much, and the actual professional money is pretty much
41:22
Speaker 1: only on my side, Vancouver, here. uh Winnipeg's a huge
41:26
Speaker 1: favorite as we know minus 200 whatever minus 210 minus
41:31
Speaker 1: 220 in that ballpark yeah whatever it is yeah there's
41:35
Speaker 1: probably some line value involved here too I'm playing an
41:38
Speaker 1: awful team like Vancouver but Winnipeg they're not that good
41:41
Speaker 1: like I don't think they should be a favorite of
41:43
Speaker 1: this price especially not in this spot kind of ridiculous
41:46
Speaker 1: so yeah we'll take Vancouver um If they win the game,
41:50
Speaker 1: that would not shock me. But yeah, we will obviously
41:53
Speaker 1: because I'm making the play on this. You got to
41:55
Speaker 1: think they have a good chance to win. We'll do it.
41:57
Speaker 1: Take them to at least push the bet and come
41:59
Speaker 1: within one here. But yeah, we're going to take the
42:02
Speaker 1: god awful Canucks here. Next game is Anaheim and Edmonton. Anaheim. Now,
42:09
Speaker 1: I do feel fairly strongly about this one, too. This
42:11
Speaker 1: is my other next strongest lean in hockey besides the
42:14
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh one. Anaheim is on a two game win streak
42:17
Speaker 1: they were just in Vancouver now they're rolling over to
42:19
Speaker 1: Edmonton over here Edmonton though they're in a bad spot
42:23
Speaker 1: Edmonton's returning home from a road trip where they went
42:25
Speaker 1: to they only did the New York thing they played
42:28
Speaker 1: New York New York and New Jersey but they lost
42:30
Speaker 1: a win streak at the end of it that was
42:31
Speaker 1: a big game for both teams there Edmonton against New Jersey.
42:35
Speaker 1: Both teams got up for that, and Edmonton fell short
42:37
Speaker 1: in whatever it was. I think it was a shootout
42:40
Speaker 1: in that one. Big game for Edmonton, and a big loss,
42:43
Speaker 1: tough game. Now they're not only coming off of that
42:46
Speaker 1: tough game, tough loss, but they're returning home on top
42:49
Speaker 1: of that. That's difficult, dude. So again, and it's a
42:52
Speaker 1: long geographic trip too, so I think this is a
42:54
Speaker 1: difficult spot for Edmonton. Could be a distraction spot, like
42:58
Speaker 1: I keep saying, on the return home. The thing that
43:01
Speaker 1: really worries me about this is that even though Edmonton
43:03
Speaker 1: did already beat the Ducks once this year uh so
43:07
Speaker 1: that may also cause them to overlook the ducks even
43:09
Speaker 1: more i'm not entirely sure they're going to because the
43:14
Speaker 1: ducks are the team that eliminated edmonton from the playoffs
43:17
Speaker 1: last year so i think edmonton sort of has the
43:19
Speaker 1: entire season series against the duck circle like i think
43:23
Speaker 1: beating the ducks in one regular season game is probably
43:25
Speaker 1: not enough for edmonton uh you know They know who
43:29
Speaker 1: ended their season, man, and that it was the Ducks.
43:31
Speaker 1: So Edmonton may not overlook them here. And Edmonton, I
43:35
Speaker 1: don't believe they have a bigger game on deck. No,
43:37
Speaker 1: they're playing Vancouver, in fact. So, yeah. So they do
43:42
Speaker 1: not have a look-ahead spot here, at the very least.
43:44
Speaker 1: So I will stay off of this one, but I
43:46
Speaker 1: do like Anaheim quite a bit here, and the money
43:48
Speaker 1: does agree with this. Edmonton has 91% of the tickets,
43:52
Speaker 1: 62% of the cash on Anaheim. So that's another... where
43:55
Speaker 1: it looks like the public is on one side and
43:57
Speaker 1: the professionals are on the other, and they're agreeing with
44:00
Speaker 1: me on the Anaheim side in that one. That is
44:03
Speaker 1: what I would do if I was going to play this.
44:04
Speaker 1: I would make a split bet again, puck line, money line,
44:07
Speaker 1: and play Anaheim here. Edmonton's about a minus 180-something favorite here.
44:12
Speaker 1: The total is insane in this game, by the way.
44:15
Speaker 1: The total's 7-7. Dude, it's Edmonton. You never see a
44:20
Speaker 1: total this high. You guys want to argue that Edmonton's
44:22
Speaker 1: defense is better now? Well, yeah, the odds figures are
44:25
Speaker 1: putting up a 7 on this, which you rarely see
44:28
Speaker 1: in hockey, and you pretty much are only going to
44:31
Speaker 1: see it in an Edmonton game because they have probably
44:34
Speaker 1: the best offense in the NHL, and their defense is
44:37
Speaker 1: still not that good, and I'm not sure that their
44:39
Speaker 1: goaltending really is either. So, yeah, that total is crazy high,
44:43
Speaker 1: but obviously... it would not surprise me at all if
44:46
Speaker 1: that game went over that total, you know, I mean,
44:48
Speaker 1: it's that high for a reason, so Edmonton, you know,
44:52
Speaker 1: they might have some poor defense and poor focus here,
44:56
Speaker 1: which means that they're, you know, they might give up
44:58
Speaker 1: more goals here, obviously, because of the spot that they're in, Anaheim, though,
45:02
Speaker 1: should be focused, so that, you know, I don't know,
45:05
Speaker 1: I don't have a great feel for the total there,
45:07
Speaker 1: but just because the number is so high, the over
45:09
Speaker 1: might Makes sense there. And the money seems like it
45:12
Speaker 1: does agree with it, even though the over will be
45:14
Speaker 1: public as well. But the public pretty much is always
45:17
Speaker 1: going to play an over, especially in a game with
45:20
Speaker 1: Edmonton involved, if they're going to play a total here.
45:23
Speaker 1: Doesn't necessarily mean that it's wrong, though. All right. That's
45:28
Speaker 1: it for hockey, I think, right? Yeah. All right. I
45:32
Speaker 1: believe so. Hold on. I don't want to jump the
45:35
Speaker 1: gun here. This is going to be a long show,
45:37
Speaker 1: but hockey was a big portion of it. Oh, no, sorry,
45:40
Speaker 1: there is one more game, Nashville and Colorado. How did
45:43
Speaker 1: I miss that? All right, my apologies. Yeah, it's a
45:45
Speaker 1: Hulu doubleheader here. This game, I actually like the favorite here.
45:49
Speaker 1: I like Colorado. Nashville is coming off two wins against
45:52
Speaker 1: the Lightning and the Hurricanes. Now they're starting a road trip,
45:56
Speaker 1: but how much is Nashville going to have left in
45:58
Speaker 1: the tank? Are they really going to pull off three
46:00
Speaker 1: consecutive monster wins? against teams that are better than they are.
46:04
Speaker 1: Three big upsets in a row? I don't really think so.
46:08
Speaker 1: Going into high elevation here, I know it's the start
46:10
Speaker 1: of a road trip. I know you're not going to
46:11
Speaker 1: overlook Colorado, but Colorado's record is actually not that good
46:15
Speaker 1: right now, so I think they're better than the record indicates.
46:18
Speaker 1: I think Nashville might just have nothing left in the
46:20
Speaker 1: tank after those huge wins. They just beat the returning champ, Hurricanes.
46:25
Speaker 1: Huge win for Nashville there. Yes, start of a road
46:28
Speaker 1: trip usually is focused, but usually is a focused spot,
46:31
Speaker 1: but in this one, Yeah, I don't like it. Going
46:35
Speaker 1: into elevation. And the other thing is, Nashville just embarrassed
46:38
Speaker 1: the Avs in Nashville not too long ago, 6-2. So
46:41
Speaker 1: Colorado is not going to overlook them this time, I
46:44
Speaker 1: wouldn't imagine. That was similar to what I said about
46:46
Speaker 1: the Knicks last night. Having had a bad performance, at least,
46:52
Speaker 1: against a bad team, if you play them again in
46:58
Speaker 1: pretty quick fashion, you're not going to overlook them that
47:00
Speaker 1: next time. Colorado sitting at nine, six and one. They're
47:03
Speaker 1: better than that. And they're coming off a disgustingly bad
47:06
Speaker 1: loss to Columbus seven to two. So I think they
47:08
Speaker 1: bounce back here. The problem is they're playing a third
47:12
Speaker 1: game in four days, a fourth game in six days.
47:14
Speaker 1: And the last three of them are all in different cities. So, yeah,
47:17
Speaker 1: that's not easy. So Colorado's schedule is a little bit jammed.
47:21
Speaker 1: So that's not good. But I do think they should
47:23
Speaker 1: bounce back from that horrible 7-2 loss to Columbus. They
47:27
Speaker 1: don't really have a big game on deck against Detroit.
47:29
Speaker 1: And like I said, this is kind of a quick
47:31
Speaker 1: revenge spot for them against Nashville. And yeah, they're returning
47:34
Speaker 1: home from a road trip, which would worry me a
47:36
Speaker 1: little bit. But it was a quick road trip, so
47:38
Speaker 1: I'm not too concerned by that. So I like Colorado
47:40
Speaker 1: in this one, although the market is not going to
47:43
Speaker 1: agree with that. Colorado is a public side. 93% of
47:45
Speaker 1: the tickets, 91% of the cash on them. They're at
47:49
Speaker 1: minus 218 now, dropped from minus 229. So that line
47:54
Speaker 1: is dropping. So it looks like the money is actually
47:56
Speaker 1: coming in on Nashville here and fading the public. But
48:00
Speaker 1: I would only play Colorado in this one. They're a
48:02
Speaker 1: little bit unplayable at this favorite price. I mean, I
48:05
Speaker 1: think they are. So the way to play this may
48:08
Speaker 1: then just be to take Colorado over their team total.
48:11
Speaker 1: I would not be opposed to that. That might be
48:13
Speaker 1: the best way to play this. And then they don't
48:15
Speaker 1: even actually necessarily need to win. As long as it's
48:17
Speaker 1: a high-scoring game, you'll get it right. They're going to
48:20
Speaker 1: need to score four goals here probably. The total is
48:22
Speaker 1: six and a half for the full game. Not the
48:25
Speaker 1: team total, that would mean saying the full game total,
48:28
Speaker 1: both teams. The money looks like it's sort of tilted
48:31
Speaker 1: towards the over as well. So, you know, that might
48:36
Speaker 1: help the case for the team total over here with Colorado.
48:39
Speaker 1: you need him to score about four, but I think
48:41
Speaker 1: in a bounce back spot like this, that's how I
48:42
Speaker 1: would be looking. And then you don't have to worry
48:44
Speaker 1: as much about if they lack focus, you know, maybe
48:47
Speaker 1: it'll show up more in the defensive side. Um, so yeah,
48:50
Speaker 1: maybe that is the way to play. This is Colorado's
48:51
Speaker 1: team total over because I do like them to win
48:55
Speaker 1: the game. I think in a bounce back spot, either that,
48:59
Speaker 1: or you could play Colorado to like win in regulation. Again,
49:01
Speaker 1: that's an option to get the price down on Colorado,
49:04
Speaker 1: but it's still, it'll be a pretty heavy price still though. Um,
49:09
Speaker 1: It'll probably be minus, I don't know, 150, minus 160
49:13
Speaker 1: maybe would be my guess. Alright, that does it for
49:16
Speaker 1: NHL finally. So yeah, my two strongest leans that are
49:20
Speaker 1: not plays are the Pittsburgh Penguins money line and the
49:23
Speaker 1: split bet puck line money line on the Anaheim Ducks. NBA,
49:27
Speaker 1: I got nothing. There are only two games here. Orlando
49:29
Speaker 1: is at Phoenix. Orlando has a big rest advantage here.
49:33
Speaker 1: Orlando hasn't played for a while. Phoenix played last night. Orlando, yeah, Well,
49:38
Speaker 1: Orlando hasn't played since Monday, but still. They have some rest,
49:43
Speaker 1: and they had two losses in a row, so Orlando
49:45
Speaker 1: looks like they should be in kind of a bounce-back
49:47
Speaker 1: spot here. They lost their last game to Washington, but
49:50
Speaker 1: Orlando was coming off a tough game against Boston where
49:53
Speaker 1: they played closer than the final score looks there, so
49:56
Speaker 1: I think they were in a bit of a hangover
49:57
Speaker 1: after that. They lost to Washington, who is better this
49:59
Speaker 1: year at the very least. Now, maybe it's good for
50:02
Speaker 1: Orlando to just leave, go out on the road. One
50:05
Speaker 1: thing that might be bad is they're playing a night
50:06
Speaker 1: game at 9 p.m. Eastern here because they're going out West.
50:09
Speaker 1: So that is a little bit of a negative. The
50:11
Speaker 1: biological clock thing where they're going to be playing late
50:14
Speaker 1: at night on their biological clock, which might hurt them
50:16
Speaker 1: a little bit. But I'm still going to be leaning
50:18
Speaker 1: towards the magic here in this one. I think starting
50:20
Speaker 1: a road trip off those two losses is probably a
50:22
Speaker 1: good thing. They got extra rest, which Phoenix does not.
50:25
Speaker 1: Phoenix played last night, and they let us down big time.
50:28
Speaker 1: But they kind of looked good, in a way, in
50:31
Speaker 1: that loss because the Blazers have a good record. It
50:33
Speaker 1: was a high-scoring game on both sides. The public will
50:38
Speaker 1: kind of think that's a good loss. You know what
50:40
Speaker 1: I mean? Oh, they lost to a good team and
50:41
Speaker 1: scored a lot of points? Okay. So the public is
50:45
Speaker 1: probably not going to want Orlando here. And yes, Orlando,
50:47
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure, is still without Bonchero, their best player.
50:51
Speaker 1: The money is all coming in on Orlando here, it
50:53
Speaker 1: looks like, though, with the public on the Phoenix side,
50:56
Speaker 1: which it's kind of crazy to see the public on
50:59
Speaker 1: Phoenix as a one-win team, but I might actually buy
51:02
Speaker 1: that that is true in this case. 61% of the
51:05
Speaker 1: tickets are on Phoenix, 89% of the cash on Orlando.
51:09
Speaker 1: So the market read is saying Orlando. I agree with
51:12
Speaker 1: it as well. I don't feel that strongly about it,
51:14
Speaker 1: but Phoenix has moved up to about a one-and-a-half-point favorite here. Now,
51:18
Speaker 1: Phoenix would normally probably be like a three-and-a-half-point favorite here.
51:22
Speaker 1: Just the line's going to be lower because they have
51:24
Speaker 1: no rest here, and the oddsmakers know they have to
51:26
Speaker 1: change the line for that. But all that being said,
51:29
Speaker 1: I think I still prefer Orlando here. Not a strong opinion, though.
51:33
Speaker 1: And then we have Miami and Golden State. Miami also
51:36
Speaker 1: played last night, and they won, and they came back
51:39
Speaker 1: and won in overtime in a close game against the Clippers.
51:41
Speaker 1: I thought Miami would cover in that game. That was
51:43
Speaker 1: my opinion there. They were not able to do it.
51:46
Speaker 1: it sets up a tough spot for Miami here though.
51:48
Speaker 1: Cause not only are they on a back to back,
51:50
Speaker 1: they're playing a third game in four days and it's
51:52
Speaker 1: not all in different cities. Cause the first two of
51:54
Speaker 1: them were both in LA, but still now they're going
51:57
Speaker 1: up to the Bay area. Uh, no time off third
52:00
Speaker 1: game in four days. While you might, you know, still
52:04
Speaker 1: try to show up for a game against the warriors.
52:06
Speaker 1: Cause they do have that name behind them and they
52:08
Speaker 1: still have Steph Curry. I think Draymond green is still
52:11
Speaker 1: playing right now. So, or is back playing, I should say, uh,
52:15
Speaker 1: it's a tough spot though for, um, for Miami here, man. Um, whereas, uh,
52:20
Speaker 1: golden state's not even traveling. They're staying at home and
52:23
Speaker 1: they have two days off. One problem is maybe that
52:25
Speaker 1: disrupts their momentum because they've won five games in a row,
52:28
Speaker 1: but yeah, the spot doesn't look good to me for Miami.
52:32
Speaker 1: Just big time, uh, rest advantage for golden state here. Uh,
52:36
Speaker 1: golden state, you know, they do still have some injuries
52:38
Speaker 1: here as we know, Butler Porzingis. I have no idea
52:41
Speaker 1: when those guys are coming back. Um, But yeah, I
52:46
Speaker 1: think I'm going to lean towards the Warriors here, but
52:48
Speaker 1: they're a huge favorite because, again, the Osmakers have to
52:51
Speaker 1: jack this number up in their direction because they know
52:54
Speaker 1: that Miami's in a horrible rest spot here. So I
52:57
Speaker 1: think normally Golden State would probably be about four and
52:59
Speaker 1: a half here, but they're up to seven and a
53:01
Speaker 1: half because of that. But Miami is looking like a
53:04
Speaker 1: public underdog, believe it or not. That surprises me because
53:07
Speaker 1: Miami's record is bad. So the public coming in on that,
53:10
Speaker 1: maybe the public does actually think, no, this is going
53:13
Speaker 1: to be a competitive game and the line's too high.
53:17
Speaker 1: That surprises me that they do think that to this extent,
53:19
Speaker 1: but we see 78% of the tickets on Miami and
53:22
Speaker 1: only 52% of the cash, so that looks like a
53:25
Speaker 1: red flag to me, as I always say. The public underdog,
53:28
Speaker 1: never the way that I want to look, and this
53:30
Speaker 1: game's not until 10 p.m. Eastern, so maybe we're going
53:33
Speaker 1: to see some market adjustment here, and maybe those percentages
53:37
Speaker 1: will change quite a bit, but Yeah, I'm going to
53:40
Speaker 1: lean slightly towards laying it with the Warriors in that one.
53:43
Speaker 1: I don't love either of these games, though. All right.
53:48
Speaker 1: Then we have college basketball is going to be up next.
53:50
Speaker 1: I do have one playing college basketball and a couple
53:52
Speaker 1: other leans here. I will go hydration break right now,
53:58
Speaker 1: and then I'll talk about that. And then we have
54:00
Speaker 1: college football and then NFL as well, and I will
54:03
Speaker 1: talk about all those. I have two more plays to
54:05
Speaker 1: give out as well. One is basketball, and one is– NFL.
54:10
Speaker 1: I will be back. Two minutes. All right. College basketball
56:18
Speaker 1: is next year. Decent college basketball slate here. I'm not
56:22
Speaker 1: going to get into every one of these games, but
56:23
Speaker 1: I'll talk about, you know, some of the ranked matchups here.
56:26
Speaker 1: We do have some early-ish games here. There's a 5 p.m.
56:30
Speaker 1: game between McNeese and North Texas. McNeese, I actually thought
56:35
Speaker 1: they were going to lose, potentially, to UAB in their
56:37
Speaker 1: first game. I thought McNeese, you know, just the hype
56:39
Speaker 1: around them would be a little bit too much, but
56:41
Speaker 1: they won against UAB. I don't have a great feel
56:44
Speaker 1: for this game they have here against North Texas. North
56:46
Speaker 1: Texas put up a ton of points against a non-Division
56:49
Speaker 1: I school there, probably not a very good one, Southwest Christian.
56:54
Speaker 1: I don't know what we could really take away from that,
56:56
Speaker 1: but I might be leaning against McNeese still in this
56:58
Speaker 1: one just because I think the name recognition is just
57:01
Speaker 1: too crazy for them. The money does seem to agree
57:04
Speaker 1: with North Texas here. 51% of tickets, 71% of the
57:07
Speaker 1: cash on them. It looks kind of easy to play
57:10
Speaker 1: McNeese at minus two and a half given what we've
57:12
Speaker 1: seen out of them the last couple of years. Everybody
57:14
Speaker 1: kind of knows their name at this point. Everybody knows
57:19
Speaker 1: their name. So, yeah, I would probably lean North Texas there.
57:23
Speaker 1: Not a strong opinion for me on that. Wake Forest
57:26
Speaker 1: is at number 24, Vandy. So we do have a
57:28
Speaker 1: power conference matchup here at 6 p.m., and that game
57:32
Speaker 1: is televised on ESPN2. Vandy might kind of be riding
57:37
Speaker 1: the hype from the last couple of years. I'm not
57:39
Speaker 1: convinced that they're as good as people think they are.
57:41
Speaker 1: They just crushed Bellarmine in their last game. I mean,
57:44
Speaker 1: I don't know what we could really— draw from that.
57:47
Speaker 1: Wake Forest had an uglier game against Maryland Eastern Shore.
57:50
Speaker 1: That's a bad Maryland Eastern Shore team. So that's not
57:55
Speaker 1: even that great of a result with Wake beating them
57:57
Speaker 1: by 21 or whatever that is. But I think that's
58:00
Speaker 1: what the public is also going to think. They're going
58:02
Speaker 1: to think, well, yeah, an uglier win from Wake there
58:06
Speaker 1: than what Vandy had. Vandy had the more impressive win. And, well, yes,
58:09
Speaker 1: I agree with that. But we all know Vandy is
58:11
Speaker 1: the better team here. But I think I would lean
58:15
Speaker 1: towards Wake Forest here. Vandy's got 69% of the tickets,
58:19
Speaker 1: 70% of the money, though, on Wake, and Vandy's up
58:22
Speaker 1: to 18 and a half now here. You know, I mean,
58:26
Speaker 1: sometimes when you see a number 24-ranked team against an unranked,
58:30
Speaker 1: a big spread like that looks like there's value on
58:34
Speaker 1: the underdog to the public, but in this case, that's
58:36
Speaker 1: not the case. The public, they want nothing to do
58:39
Speaker 1: with an ACC team, one that's not one of the
58:42
Speaker 1: good ones like Wake. They're going to be on the
58:44
Speaker 1: side of the Vandy team that they saw do well
58:46
Speaker 1: the last two years. Vandy had some big wins last
58:50
Speaker 1: year in the SEC, and they're in the SEC, which
58:52
Speaker 1: is a much better conference. That's where the public is
58:54
Speaker 1: going to be, but I would be against them in
58:56
Speaker 1: this game too. I would take the points with Wake
58:58
Speaker 1: in that one, but I don't have a strong opinion
59:00
Speaker 1: there either. As we keep going here, not a whole
59:04
Speaker 1: lot to really talk about in some of these 7 p.m.
59:08
Speaker 1: games that are uh up top on the slate here
59:10
Speaker 1: i had some other um you know uh like there
59:14
Speaker 1: were some other situations that i kind of saw in
59:18
Speaker 1: here that you know i looked at a little bit
59:20
Speaker 1: but i'll just go down to njit and iona i
59:22
Speaker 1: almost put this one on my card I like NJIT
59:25
Speaker 1: in this one, but man, they are a bad team.
59:27
Speaker 1: But Iona, they just had a nice win against Vermont,
59:30
Speaker 1: where they were actually losing the whole game pretty much
59:32
Speaker 1: to Vermont, although it was a close, low-scoring battle. But
59:35
Speaker 1: Vermont is always one of the best teams in the
59:37
Speaker 1: American East Conference, at least. Iona's not in their conference.
59:41
Speaker 1: Iona's in the MAAC, which I guess is now called
59:45
Speaker 1: just the Metro Conference. Still, I think that's a big
59:48
Speaker 1: win for Iona to beat Vermont like that. And NJIT
59:51
Speaker 1: is a much worse American East team. And look who
59:54
Speaker 1: Iona has on deck. I mean, this kind of looks
59:57
Speaker 1: like a sandwich to me for Iona because Vermont gets
59:59
Speaker 1: a lot of name recognition. Beating them is pretty big.
1:00:02
Speaker 1: And Iona pulled that game out after they were losing
1:00:05
Speaker 1: the majority of the game pretty close. Now they've got
1:00:08
Speaker 1: an NJIT team, and nobody's going to be focused on it.
1:00:10
Speaker 1: Up next, Iona's got St. John's. That is a much
1:00:13
Speaker 1: bigger game. Iona is like a little brother to them,
1:00:17
Speaker 1: sort of. Iona's just outside New York City, I'm pretty sure,
1:00:20
Speaker 1: and St. John's is, I think, inside of New York City,
1:00:24
Speaker 1: so that doesn't sound quite right. But yes, so that's
1:00:28
Speaker 1: going to be a big game for Iona. Plus, I'm
1:00:31
Speaker 1: pretty sure Rick Pitino was the coach for Iona for
1:00:33
Speaker 1: a while, so there's that kind of... backstory there, that
1:00:37
Speaker 1: history there too. So yeah, I think it's a sandwich spot.
1:00:40
Speaker 1: I think Iona's going to overlook NJIT here. I like NJIT.
1:00:44
Speaker 1: Although this is the America East Metro Challenge though, man.
1:00:49
Speaker 1: So these teams are going to want to make their
1:00:52
Speaker 1: conference look good, but whatever. For NJIT, they're coming off
1:00:56
Speaker 1: a blowout loss to Dayton. I mean, no surprise there.
1:00:58
Speaker 1: Dayton obviously way better than they are. They're having to
1:01:01
Speaker 1: travel though into Iona here for this. But still, that's
1:01:05
Speaker 1: the way I would lean. NJIT, they're really, really bad, though.
1:01:09
Speaker 1: And Ken Baum has them losing by more than what
1:01:11
Speaker 1: the spread is by a significant amount. Although with Ken Baum,
1:01:14
Speaker 1: you know, his numbers are just starting to get going.
1:01:16
Speaker 1: So I don't think you should put that much weight
1:01:18
Speaker 1: into Ken Baum. This one, again, almost made the cut
1:01:21
Speaker 1: for me. Although using Ken Baum as a gauge kind
1:01:23
Speaker 1: of kept me off of this a little bit. But
1:01:25
Speaker 1: Iona is super public here. 93% of the tickets and
1:01:28
Speaker 1: cash are 9.5-point favorites. The totals dropped a bit, and
1:01:33
Speaker 1: it's not very high. It's in the 140s, so it's
1:01:35
Speaker 1: expected to be a low-scoring game. You're going to get
1:01:37
Speaker 1: a bunch of points here with an underdog that I
1:01:41
Speaker 1: think is... Well, you're getting a bunch of points against
1:01:44
Speaker 1: a favorite, let's say, that I think is in a
1:01:46
Speaker 1: bad spot here. Yeah, I would definitely take the points
1:01:48
Speaker 1: with NJIT if I was going to play this one.
1:01:51
Speaker 1: I can't quite get there with it, though. I did
1:01:55
Speaker 1: have NJIT on my card a couple of times last year.
1:01:58
Speaker 1: I know they're God, they're ugly. They are so hard.
1:02:01
Speaker 1: It's so hard to bet them. Uh, but if it's
1:02:04
Speaker 1: going to be a low, low scoring, ugly game, I mean,
1:02:06
Speaker 1: that's kind of what you want when you're taking points.
1:02:08
Speaker 1: So I think that is the case here. That was
1:02:11
Speaker 1: close to being a play for me. Maybe I'm being
1:02:12
Speaker 1: too selective, but yeah, I do like, um, NJIT plus
1:02:16
Speaker 1: the points in that one. Uh, I can see an
1:02:20
Speaker 1: argument for Mercyhurst here against Notre Dame, although they're having
1:02:23
Speaker 1: to go into self-bend here. Mercyhurst is fairly new to
1:02:26
Speaker 1: Division I basketball still, and they're obviously a significantly worse
1:02:30
Speaker 1: team than Notre Dame. But we know Notre Dame, this
1:02:33
Speaker 1: is a difficult spot for Notre Dame, dude. I mean,
1:02:35
Speaker 1: they just played that huge game in Rome, the Battle
1:02:38
Speaker 1: of the Catholics, and they They beat Villanova. They upset Villanova.
1:02:43
Speaker 1: That was a huge game for Notre Dame, winning in Rome.
1:02:45
Speaker 1: Now they have to travel back with not a whole
1:02:48
Speaker 1: lot of time to do it, travel back to the
1:02:49
Speaker 1: States off of a big win. So this is like
1:02:52
Speaker 1: a letdown spot plus a bad travel spot. Obviously, I
1:02:56
Speaker 1: like Mercyhurst in this one. I would take the points
1:02:58
Speaker 1: with Mercyhurst. I just have some concerns about it. Mercyhurst,
1:03:01
Speaker 1: you know, not really familiar with playing in this venue. Mercyhurst,
1:03:05
Speaker 1: by the way, is in Erie, Pennsylvania, so this isn't
1:03:08
Speaker 1: that bad geographically for them, but still. Yeah, I mean,
1:03:13
Speaker 1: the spot is so bad for Notre Dame that I
1:03:15
Speaker 1: almost want to put this one on the card, too,
1:03:17
Speaker 1: and if Notre Dame had a big game on deck,
1:03:19
Speaker 1: I think I would. I think Mercyhurst would make the
1:03:21
Speaker 1: cut for me if this was a sandwich spot. Notre
1:03:24
Speaker 1: Dame has only– they play Eastern Illinois next. That team
1:03:28
Speaker 1: is awful. So, yeah, you know, it is still a
1:03:32
Speaker 1: major letdown spot, plus a really difficult travel spot. And
1:03:35
Speaker 1: these college teams, they're unfamiliar with that. That Rome thing
1:03:38
Speaker 1: was something I've never seen before. So it's really sort
1:03:42
Speaker 1: of– unfamiliar territory for Notre Dame here right now plus
1:03:46
Speaker 1: yeah the letdown spot so yeah I do like Mercyhurst
1:03:49
Speaker 1: in that one uh plus the points obviously this is
1:03:53
Speaker 1: a low total it's almost around 140 and you're getting
1:03:56
Speaker 1: 19 actually you're getting 21 and a half now with
1:03:59
Speaker 1: Mercyhurst Notre Dame 89% of the tickets and 90% of
1:04:02
Speaker 1: the cash on them and Notre Dame oh this one
1:04:06
Speaker 1: is this is tempting it really is I gotta look
1:04:11
Speaker 1: I gotta look at Ken Baum on this one real
1:04:12
Speaker 1: quick hold on What does Kempom have this at? I
1:04:16
Speaker 1: got this in a different window, but he's got Notre
1:04:19
Speaker 1: Dame 74th in the country, slow-paced team, which also is
1:04:23
Speaker 1: not good when you want to lay a bunch of points.
1:04:26
Speaker 1: So if you want to take points, that's good for
1:04:28
Speaker 1: us here. Mercyhurst is, yeah, in the bottom, like 60
1:04:31
Speaker 1: teams in all of college basketball. They're a little bit
1:04:33
Speaker 1: better defensively than offensively. They play at an extreme slow pace,
1:04:37
Speaker 1: even slower than Notre Dame. But Notre Dame playing slow
1:04:41
Speaker 1: won't throw Mercy or us completely out of their element here.
1:04:46
Speaker 1: And let me see, what does Ken Baum have for
1:04:48
Speaker 1: the number on this? He has this right around what
1:04:51
Speaker 1: the number is. Yeah, you know what? Let's do it. Yeah,
1:05:02
Speaker 1: all right. I'm sold on it, even though I wish
1:05:06
Speaker 1: it was a sandwich spot, man. But, you know, you
1:05:08
Speaker 1: can't get everything. Maybe I'm too greedy. I think this
1:05:12
Speaker 1: is a good spot. Plus, we're getting a pretty solid
1:05:14
Speaker 1: number on this now. 21 and a half at a
1:05:16
Speaker 1: lot of places now. Let's do it. Let's take mercy, Hurst.
1:05:20
Speaker 1: Hope this game's ugly, low score. I mean, Notre Dame is,
1:05:22
Speaker 1: I mean, they're not like one of the elite power
1:05:24
Speaker 1: conference teams either. So, hold on a minute. I'm putting
1:05:28
Speaker 1: this in. Let me see. Yeah.
1:05:32
Speaker 2: All right.
1:05:32
Speaker 1: There we go. It's going to be 21 and a
1:05:34
Speaker 1: half on this. Let me see. Mercyhurst. Whoops. I still
1:05:44
Speaker 1: messed it up. I apologize. Hang on. This thing is, yeah. What? Sorry. Dude,
1:05:56
Speaker 1: StreamYard is just really acting up right now. It's slow.
1:05:58
Speaker 1: I don't know what it's even doing. There it is.
1:06:02
Speaker 1: Mercyhurst plus 21 and a half. All right. Um, so
1:06:06
Speaker 1: we're going to have five plays on the board today.
1:06:08
Speaker 1: There you go. Um, yeah, maybe, maybe it pays to
1:06:13
Speaker 1: look at college basketball, man. Uh, but yeah, like these
1:06:16
Speaker 1: are all ugly plays, I know. Uh, but we're looking
1:06:18
Speaker 1: for the spots here, man. So yeah, that's what we're
1:06:20
Speaker 1: going to do with that one. Um, what else we
1:06:25
Speaker 1: got for our college basketball games? So that game obviously is, uh, Well,
1:06:29
Speaker 1: it's going to be on the ACC Network. Sorry, the ACC...
1:06:33
Speaker 1: It's going to be ACC Plus or whatever, ACC Extra.
1:06:36
Speaker 1: So if you pay for that, you'll be able to
1:06:38
Speaker 1: see that game. There might be ways to find that
1:06:40
Speaker 1: game anyway, though. Then we get into some of our
1:06:44
Speaker 1: ranked games here, and that leads me to my other
1:06:47
Speaker 1: play already, which is, yeah, you're not going to like
1:06:49
Speaker 1: this one. We're going against the number one ranked team
1:06:52
Speaker 1: in the country who may very well be the best
1:06:54
Speaker 1: team in the country, Florida State. Ken Baum has them
1:06:57
Speaker 1: as number two right now. They may very well be
1:06:59
Speaker 1: number one, though. I think he has Duke still as
1:07:01
Speaker 1: the number one, but we're going to fade them, whatever
1:07:04
Speaker 1: you want to call it. We're going to take Jacksonville,
1:07:06
Speaker 1: plus 35.5 in this one. Jacksonville's not a great team, obviously,
1:07:12
Speaker 1: and they're in the A sun or whatever, but this
1:07:14
Speaker 1: spot for Florida is pretty bad. Florida's coming off a
1:07:18
Speaker 1: really nice win in their opener against ranked Miami, and
1:07:23
Speaker 1: I felt like people were kind of questioning Florida a
1:07:25
Speaker 1: little bit to some extent. Going into that game, even
1:07:28
Speaker 1: though the public was pretty much on them, I liked
1:07:30
Speaker 1: Florida to cover in that one, actually, because I'm not
1:07:33
Speaker 1: sold on Miami right now. I know that Florida has
1:07:36
Speaker 1: all this returning production, so they're obviously good, but now
1:07:38
Speaker 1: they just beat one of their major rivals in an
1:07:41
Speaker 1: in-state rivalry game against Miami. That game was in Tampa Bay,
1:07:45
Speaker 1: so there's not really a bad travel spot here or anything,
1:07:47
Speaker 1: whereas this game, I believe, is going to be their
1:07:49
Speaker 1: home opener in Gainesville. But I don't care. I think
1:07:52
Speaker 1: they're laying too many points here. I think they might
1:07:54
Speaker 1: want to just get in and get out of this game.
1:07:56
Speaker 1: Because that was a huge game against Miami. But look
1:07:58
Speaker 1: who they played next to. even though it's a little
1:08:01
Speaker 1: bit of a downtime for Florida State, that's who they're
1:08:04
Speaker 1: playing next. That's another huge rivalry. So this game is
1:08:07
Speaker 1: a Florida rivalry sandwich here. This is a, I don't know,
1:08:12
Speaker 1: what do they eat? Cubanos, I guess, in Florida, maybe
1:08:15
Speaker 1: just in Miami. I like Cubano sandwiches, by the way,
1:08:18
Speaker 1: really good stuff. Pickles, mustard, pork, yeah, ham, whatever, Swiss cheese,
1:08:23
Speaker 1: good bread, usually whatever it is. What do they usually
1:08:27
Speaker 1: put it on? Ciabatta, maybe, or something like that. Yeah,
1:08:30
Speaker 1: give me that shit. That's good stuff, man. We don't
1:08:33
Speaker 1: really have good Cubanos up here, but yeah, this is
1:08:38
Speaker 1: a horrible spot. This is a big old Cubano sandwich
1:08:41
Speaker 1: for Florida here. In between Miami and Florida State, they're
1:08:45
Speaker 1: two biggest rivals. They're playing, yeah, another Florida team here,
1:08:49
Speaker 1: but Jacksonville, I think they're going to try to just
1:08:50
Speaker 1: get in and get out of this game, get an
1:08:53
Speaker 1: easy win. They don't need style points here, whatever. This
1:08:56
Speaker 1: is a huge number to be laying, and for Jacksonville,
1:08:59
Speaker 1: this is going to be their super Bowl. You know,
1:09:01
Speaker 1: Jacksonville is the... So Florida's going from the big brother
1:09:04
Speaker 1: role and beating down their little brother Miami, who's a
1:09:09
Speaker 1: much more powerful little brother, to now playing... Florida's playing
1:09:13
Speaker 1: their infant brother here right now against Jacksonville. They're probably
1:09:16
Speaker 1: going to just... Look right past them. You know what
1:09:19
Speaker 1: I mean? Whereas for Jacksonville, this is their Super Bowl.
1:09:21
Speaker 1: This is their biggest game of the year. We get
1:09:23
Speaker 1: to play the University of Florida? Yeah. All right. So, yeah,
1:09:27
Speaker 1: this is... It's a much, much bigger game for Jacksonville.
1:09:31
Speaker 1: Jacksonville does have a game under their belt. They played
1:09:33
Speaker 1: some lesser non-D1 Jacksonville school in their last game, whatever.
1:09:37
Speaker 1: They put up 100 points, which at least is a
1:09:39
Speaker 1: good sign. I mean, that was... A win that will
1:09:42
Speaker 1: give you some momentum, at least, coming into this. So, yeah,
1:09:45
Speaker 1: I mean, I think it lines up pretty nicely here.
1:09:47
Speaker 1: It's a sandwich spot. Florida's laying a lot of points.
1:09:51
Speaker 1: Ken Baum, I believe, has this number being a couple
1:09:53
Speaker 1: of points lower than this. So he's showing a little
1:09:56
Speaker 1: bit of value here. If you want to put any
1:09:59
Speaker 1: stock into his numbers here, I think he's got it
1:10:02
Speaker 1: probably at around 33 or so, if I remember correctly.
1:10:05
Speaker 1: Florida's very public, you know, not surprising. 86% of the tickets.
1:10:08
Speaker 1: 88% of the cash. And I know it's not fun
1:10:11
Speaker 1: taking these huge underdogs. In Florida, they play fast and
1:10:15
Speaker 1: they score a lot. So I know that.
1:10:18
Speaker 1: Makes me worry here, but it might be a situation
1:10:20
Speaker 1: where they just might take their foot off the gas
1:10:23
Speaker 1: at some point here, right? Like ease it up because
1:10:26
Speaker 1: they have another big game on deck. So I could
1:10:27
Speaker 1: definitely see them doing that in this spot here. And Jacksonville,
1:10:31
Speaker 1: you know, I think the back door will be open
1:10:33
Speaker 1: if Florida does that. Like, you know, if they don't
1:10:35
Speaker 1: want to get anybody hurt, they decide to just ease
1:10:37
Speaker 1: up a bit with a big lead, put their backups in, whatever.
1:10:41
Speaker 1: That might happen here. The total's, you know, in the 150s,
1:10:45
Speaker 1: so it's not, like, extremely high. So, yeah, either way, though,
1:10:49
Speaker 1: horrible spot for Florida. So let's take Jacksonville as the
1:10:53
Speaker 1: little brother here, plus 35.5. Yeah, the Cuban sandwich. Yeah,
1:11:00
Speaker 1: it's a Cubano. I mean, that's just what the Cubans
1:11:04
Speaker 1: call it. That's just the Spanish name for it. The
1:11:08
Speaker 1: Spanish language name for it is the Cubano. It's a
1:11:11
Speaker 1: Cuban sandwich, yes. All right. Number two, Duke, as I
1:11:17
Speaker 1: just mentioned, I did just mention, they're playing Coastal Carolina.
1:11:21
Speaker 1: Coastal Carolina is a South Carolina school near Myrtle Beach, but,
1:11:24
Speaker 1: you know, I guess they're a little brother in the Carolinas,
1:11:28
Speaker 1: if you want to call it that. Duke is more
1:11:30
Speaker 1: of a slow-paced team, by the way, so they're not
1:11:32
Speaker 1: really a team I love laying a ton of points with,
1:11:34
Speaker 1: especially when they're laying 40-something points here. Duke just beat Army.
1:11:38
Speaker 1: It was a fine win for them, but it was
1:11:40
Speaker 1: a low-scoring win, sort of. and that's what you want
1:11:43
Speaker 1: to look for here if you're going to fade Duke,
1:11:44
Speaker 1: and that is the way I would lean in this game.
1:11:46
Speaker 1: I would lean towards fading Duke here. Duke has a
1:11:48
Speaker 1: big game on deck against Michigan State. It seems like
1:11:51
Speaker 1: Duke always plays Michigan State early in the season, and
1:11:54
Speaker 1: we know Tom Izzo with Michigan State. He always schedules.
1:11:58
Speaker 1: big opponents early on because that's his thing. He wants
1:12:00
Speaker 1: to battle test his team right away even though it's
1:12:03
Speaker 1: going to result in some early season losses. He wants
1:12:06
Speaker 1: to schedule good opponents. That's why Michigan State winds up
1:12:09
Speaker 1: a lot of times being an undervalued team. So I
1:12:12
Speaker 1: always kind of look for that too. Michigan State specifically
1:12:14
Speaker 1: because they play like a gauntlet usually in the out
1:12:17
Speaker 1: of conference and then after that their record tends to
1:12:20
Speaker 1: not look that good but they're very battle tested at
1:12:23
Speaker 1: that point and way better than their record looks so
1:12:26
Speaker 1: And that's why a lot of times they overperform in
1:12:28
Speaker 1: the tournament too or perform better than people expect because
1:12:30
Speaker 1: Tom Izzo's all about battle testing his team and not
1:12:33
Speaker 1: caring if they take some losses in there. You know
1:12:36
Speaker 1: what I mean? But yeah, Duke always plays Michigan State
1:12:38
Speaker 1: early on, but that's going to be a big game.
1:12:40
Speaker 1: Michigan State's ranked sixth in the country right now, and
1:12:43
Speaker 1: I do think they're really, really good and better than
1:12:46
Speaker 1: probably people realize at this point. So this is a
1:12:49
Speaker 1: look-ahead spot for Duke, I would say. So yeah, I
1:12:51
Speaker 1: would fade Duke in this game. Duke is getting some
1:12:54
Speaker 1: of the money, though. 67% of the tickets, 87% of
1:12:57
Speaker 1: the cash on Duke. They're a 40.5-point favorite, though, and
1:13:01
Speaker 1: the total's not really that high, around 150. Duke is,
1:13:05
Speaker 1: like I said, more of a slowdown team, even though
1:13:07
Speaker 1: their offense is usually really efficient. But they are a
1:13:10
Speaker 1: slowdown team, which might help a huge underdog like this
1:13:14
Speaker 1: to hang around. But yeah, I would lean towards Coastal Carolina,
1:13:17
Speaker 1: plus the points in that one. And then we do
1:13:20
Speaker 1: have Michigan State, the aforementioned number six. Michigan State is
1:13:24
Speaker 1: playing Toledo here on Peacock at 8 p.m. And again,
1:13:28
Speaker 1: I would say the same thing. Michigan State also plays
1:13:30
Speaker 1: a little bit slow. They're coming off a win over
1:13:32
Speaker 1: Quinnipiac with not a ton of points scored in that one.
1:13:35
Speaker 1: And they, of course, as I already mentioned, they have
1:13:37
Speaker 1: Duke on deck. So same handicap, basically. I think this
1:13:40
Speaker 1: is a look-ahead spot for Michigan State here. I think
1:13:43
Speaker 1: they won't fully focus on Toledo here. It's a game
1:13:46
Speaker 1: Toledo will get up for. Toledo did lose their first
1:13:49
Speaker 1: game to Arkansas State. Not a great loss there, really,
1:13:53
Speaker 1: but I think it was kind of a competitive line
1:13:55
Speaker 1: in that game. I think one of the teams was
1:13:57
Speaker 1: favored by probably a few points. I forget which. But
1:14:00
Speaker 1: I dug into that game earlier, and I think Toledo
1:14:02
Speaker 1: played better than it looked like on the scoreboard and
1:14:05
Speaker 1: maybe should have won that game. I think Arkansas State
1:14:07
Speaker 1: had some outlier, like a three-point outlier in that game.
1:14:10
Speaker 1: I could look if I remember correctly. Yeah, so Arkansas
1:14:14
Speaker 1: State was a three and a half point favorite. Arkansas, yeah,
1:14:17
Speaker 1: was plus 15 from three point range. I think that's
1:14:19
Speaker 1: what I was seeing. They also went to the free
1:14:21
Speaker 1: throw line way more, even though they missed more than
1:14:23
Speaker 1: half of their free throws. Oh, boy. But Toledo was
1:14:27
Speaker 1: better in this game than it looked like on the scoreboard. Statistically,
1:14:30
Speaker 1: they probably could have won that game. So I think
1:14:33
Speaker 1: they're maybe a little bit better than they looked there. But, yeah,
1:14:35
Speaker 1: I lean towards Toledo here, and the money does seem
1:14:38
Speaker 1: to agree, plus the points, obviously. Michigan State, 53% of
1:14:42
Speaker 1: the tickets on them, but the money looks like it's
1:14:44
Speaker 1: on Toledo, 63% of the tickets on them. Michigan State, 27.5-point
1:14:49
Speaker 1: favorite now here. Total in the mid-range in the 150s. And, yeah,
1:14:53
Speaker 1: Michigan State is kind of a slowdown team. Although I
1:14:56
Speaker 1: think Toledo does, I think, like to play faster, let
1:14:59
Speaker 1: me say, Yeah, they are kind of in the faster
1:15:03
Speaker 1: range there. That's what I thought. So, yeah, I mean,
1:15:05
Speaker 1: Michigan State, the fact that they will probably slow this down,
1:15:08
Speaker 1: they might throw Toledo out of their element a little bit,
1:15:10
Speaker 1: but it's still good to take a huge underdog if
1:15:13
Speaker 1: you think the game's going to be slow. So, yeah,
1:15:16
Speaker 1: my lean is Toledo plus the points there. Gardner-Webb, who
1:15:20
Speaker 1: barely got there on the better numbers for us in
1:15:22
Speaker 1: the first game against Connecticut. They're an awful team. They're
1:15:27
Speaker 1: playing at Texas here, number seven Texas. Texas... You know,
1:15:31
Speaker 1: Texas loaded up over the offseason with the NIL stuff, man.
1:15:36
Speaker 1: They brought in a bunch of players. They're going to
1:15:38
Speaker 1: have to gain some chemistry. But, I mean, obviously I
1:15:40
Speaker 1: don't think they're going to have any problem winning this game.
1:15:42
Speaker 1: But will they cover the number here? I don't know.
1:15:44
Speaker 1: I mean, Texas doesn't have any big games up until
1:15:47
Speaker 1: they play Baylor 10 days from now. So this isn't
1:15:50
Speaker 1: any sort of bad spot really for Texas. It's probably
1:15:53
Speaker 1: just a matter of Texas is probably favored by a
1:15:56
Speaker 1: little bit too much here. That's not enough for me
1:15:58
Speaker 1: to want to get involved, but Texas is very public.
1:16:01
Speaker 1: 88% of the tickets, 91% of the cash on them.
1:16:05
Speaker 1: Total's not that high in the 150s. 40, 41.5, 40.5
1:16:10
Speaker 1: up to 41.5 is the number here on Texas. I'd
1:16:13
Speaker 1: again probably take the underdog plus the points here in
1:16:16
Speaker 1: this one, but that one I don't feel as good
1:16:19
Speaker 1: about because there's no situation to really back that up.
1:16:22
Speaker 1: Texas looks like they kind of play a mid-tempo right now,
1:16:25
Speaker 1: so we will see about that. So Texas is not,
1:16:29
Speaker 1: they're not a slowdown team. Will Texas be different than Arkansas?
1:16:37
Speaker 1: Or excuse me, will Jacksonville be different than Arkansas? Yeah,
1:16:40
Speaker 1: I mean, the Arkansas Pine Bluff was just a lean
1:16:42
Speaker 1: for me. I mean, Jacksonville's a better team than Arkansas
1:16:45
Speaker 1: Pine Bluff. Arkansas Pine Bluff is horrendous. They're one of
1:16:48
Speaker 1: the absolute worst teams ever. in Division I, so you
1:16:51
Speaker 1: have that going for you if you play Jacksonville. Jacksonville's
1:16:54
Speaker 1: in a better conference. I mean, Kenbaum has Pine Bluff at. 357,
1:16:59
Speaker 1: which is really bad. He's got Jacksonville. 228. So, you know,
1:17:03
Speaker 1: they're in a much better conference or whatever. So, yeah,
1:17:05
Speaker 1: Jacksonville's a significantly more competitive team than Pine Bluff. And
1:17:10
Speaker 1: Pine Bluff was looking good for a while in that game.
1:17:12
Speaker 1: It's just Arkansas just ran away with it. I think maybe, though,
1:17:16
Speaker 1: because I think John Calipari does have a tendency to
1:17:19
Speaker 1: run up the score, and I don't know if I
1:17:20
Speaker 1: see Florida doing that here. So, yeah, and it's a
1:17:26
Speaker 1: little bit more different, again, because not only are we
1:17:29
Speaker 1: playing on a better team here than Pine Bluff, but
1:17:32
Speaker 1: also that Arkansas game, that was only a lean for me,
1:17:35
Speaker 1: so I didn't feel as strong about it. And I
1:17:38
Speaker 1: don't believe that was a sandwich spot, right? I think
1:17:40
Speaker 1: it was a look-ahead spot or something for Arkansas. I forget.
1:17:44
Speaker 1: It wasn't that strong of a read for me, although
1:17:47
Speaker 1: it was my strongest read on that day, but it
1:17:49
Speaker 1: was a weak college basketball board that day. Yeah, I
1:17:53
Speaker 1: think this play is better than that one. Pennsylvania, number three, Illinois.
1:17:58
Speaker 1: This is a really interesting one because this is actually
1:18:00
Speaker 1: a revenge game for Penn. If we remember, Penn pulled
1:18:04
Speaker 1: off that ridiculous upset against Yale to win the Ivy
1:18:07
Speaker 1: last year. They made the tournament, and then Illinois is
1:18:10
Speaker 1: the team that ended their season in So this is
1:18:12
Speaker 1: a revenge game for Penn, but is revenge going to
1:18:15
Speaker 1: be enough here? I'm not so sure. I mean, yeah,
1:18:18
Speaker 1: you remember who ended your season. The problem is Illinois
1:18:21
Speaker 1: just is a horrible matchup for Penn. That's kind of
1:18:24
Speaker 1: the problem here. Illinois could probably beat Penn by 40
1:18:28
Speaker 1: points in their sleep. You know what I mean? That's
1:18:30
Speaker 1: the problem here. I'm going to lean towards Penn in
1:18:33
Speaker 1: this game anyway, plus the points. I don't want to
1:18:35
Speaker 1: put it on my card. The spot isn't exactly great
1:18:38
Speaker 1: for Illinois. This game's on Fox Sports 1, by the way.
1:18:41
Speaker 1: Illinois just put up 120 points against Fairleigh Dickinson and
1:18:45
Speaker 1: won that game by 75 points. Is that math right? That's, yeah,
1:18:53
Speaker 1: that is crazy. A 75-point win for Illinois in their
1:18:57
Speaker 1: opening game. And they got Texas Tech on deck. So, yeah,
1:19:00
Speaker 1: it's a bad spot for Illinois, even though that was
1:19:02
Speaker 1: an easy win over Illinois. FDU there, so they're not
1:19:05
Speaker 1: going to be tired or anything off of that, but
1:19:07
Speaker 1: it's a win that makes Illinois look really good, although
1:19:09
Speaker 1: Illinois is good. They brought back some of their guys
1:19:12
Speaker 1: from last year that went to the Final Four. This
1:19:14
Speaker 1: is a really good Illinois offense. Their defense, maybe not
1:19:17
Speaker 1: so much, but they do have Texas Tech on deck,
1:19:21
Speaker 1: so that is a look ahead at the very least.
1:19:23
Speaker 1: And again, Penn, maybe a little extra motivation here because
1:19:26
Speaker 1: they know Illinois ended their season and bounced them from
1:19:29
Speaker 1: the tournament, and it was ugly. Illinois I don't remember
1:19:32
Speaker 1: how much they won that game by, but it was
1:19:34
Speaker 1: a lot. And I believe Illinois was only, you know,
1:19:38
Speaker 1: somewhere around a 20-something point favorite, if I remember correctly,
1:19:42
Speaker 1: in that game. Now they're at home. I think they're
1:19:44
Speaker 1: laying at least 30 in this game. But when the
1:19:47
Speaker 1: tournament started, I think Illinois, we didn't even know how
1:19:50
Speaker 1: good Illinois was. Illinois is 30-and-a-half here. But this is
1:19:54
Speaker 1: a really high total, 173-and-a-half, and it's gone up eight
1:19:57
Speaker 1: points still. So... I mean, that's Illinois' game. Their one
1:20:03
Speaker 1: deficiency is on the defensive side. They're not that good
1:20:06
Speaker 1: on defense. They're like an elite offensive team, though. They
1:20:10
Speaker 1: put up so many points, and that is concerning if
1:20:12
Speaker 1: you want to take points against them here. The total
1:20:14
Speaker 1: is so high. It makes it easier for the favorite
1:20:17
Speaker 1: to cover. This is one of the highest totals you're
1:20:19
Speaker 1: going to see. So that has me concerned. Penn probably
1:20:22
Speaker 1: wants to try to slow this down. I don't know
1:20:24
Speaker 1: if they're going to be able to. Illinois is just
1:20:26
Speaker 1: so much better than they are and could just easily
1:20:29
Speaker 1: control the pace here if they want to. But I
1:20:31
Speaker 1: think it does come down to motivation. I think Illinois might,
1:20:34
Speaker 1: you know, take their foot off the gas later in
1:20:37
Speaker 1: the game or whatever. I don't think Illinois really cares
1:20:39
Speaker 1: about covering this number here. Penn... Wants to at least
1:20:43
Speaker 1: show up, I would imagine, because they know this is
1:20:45
Speaker 1: the team that ended their season last year. Even though, obviously,
1:20:48
Speaker 1: they didn't expect to win that game. Nobody expected that. And,
1:20:51
Speaker 1: of course, it was never going to happen. Illinois is
1:20:53
Speaker 1: just so much better than they are. But 94% of
1:20:56
Speaker 1: the tickets on Illinois, 93% of the cash on them.
1:20:59
Speaker 1: So they're a public side with less of the money
1:21:01
Speaker 1: on them. So the money does seem to be indicating
1:21:04
Speaker 1: towards Penn based on that market read. You're getting 30.5.
1:21:06
Speaker 1: I would agree with leaning that way, but that's a
1:21:09
Speaker 1: game I would not want to do that in that game.
1:21:13
Speaker 1: I would lean that way, though, like I'm saying. Then
1:21:17
Speaker 1: Texas Tech, number 19, is also playing today. They have
1:21:20
Speaker 1: that look ahead to Illinois. So I'm going to kind
1:21:23
Speaker 1: of say the same thing here. I'm going to lean
1:21:25
Speaker 1: towards Bethune-Cookman plus the points in this one. I know
1:21:27
Speaker 1: it's a lot of underdog leans here. Texas Tech just
1:21:30
Speaker 1: beat Jackson State, who is a team that... battle test themselves.
1:21:34
Speaker 1: They schedule a lot of good teams early in the
1:21:36
Speaker 1: season to battle test themselves, even though they can't really
1:21:38
Speaker 1: compete with any of them. That win didn't look that
1:21:40
Speaker 1: good for Texas Tech, though. And with Illinois on deck
1:21:43
Speaker 1: for Texas Tech, that's going to be a big game.
1:21:46
Speaker 1: I don't know if JT Taupin is actually playing, because
1:21:48
Speaker 1: I heard somebody say he's hurt for Texas Tech, even
1:21:51
Speaker 1: though he is on their roster, but let me see.
1:21:53
Speaker 1: But the fact that Texas Tech only put up 76
1:21:56
Speaker 1: against Jackson State is kind of damning to me. You know,
1:22:00
Speaker 1: I mean, that's not good. Yeah, JT Taubman did not
1:22:02
Speaker 1: play in this game, so I don't know what his
1:22:05
Speaker 1: deal is. He's got some injury, apparently, so he's not
1:22:08
Speaker 1: there right now, so he might still miss this game.
1:22:10
Speaker 1: But the fact that Texas Tech could not put up
1:22:12
Speaker 1: that much offense in that game... Bethune-Cookman is kind of...
1:22:15
Speaker 1: I mean, even though they're in a bad conference, they're
1:22:18
Speaker 1: bad in the SWAC, but Bethune-Cookman... They have put up
1:22:24
Speaker 1: some decent performances in some of these early season games recently,
1:22:28
Speaker 1: so they... You know, they're a program that is kind
1:22:31
Speaker 1: of used to these types of games, and sometimes they
1:22:33
Speaker 1: play better than people think. So, yeah, I think Bethune-Cookman
1:22:36
Speaker 1: plus the points is probably the right approach here in
1:22:38
Speaker 1: this one. I know me with these underdogs, that's just
1:22:42
Speaker 1: the way I handicap these games, man. Texas Tech is
1:22:45
Speaker 1: a very public side, 90% of the tickets, 92% of
1:22:48
Speaker 1: the cash on them. Their best player is still out.
1:22:52
Speaker 1: They're at about 28.5 right now. Total is low in
1:22:55
Speaker 1: the high 140s, so that makes it better to take
1:22:57
Speaker 1: the underdog here. This one's expected to be a bit
1:23:00
Speaker 1: lower scoring, kind of like Texas Tech's first game, which
1:23:03
Speaker 1: is going to make it harder for them to cover
1:23:04
Speaker 1: a huge number like this. I would leave Bethune, Cookman
1:23:08
Speaker 1: in that one. Fig Nuts, what's up? Yes, sir. Yes,
1:23:11
Speaker 1: thank you. Smash the like, baby. I know I'm really
1:23:15
Speaker 1: long-winded here, especially on these long shows with a lot
1:23:18
Speaker 1: to talk about here. Towson and Utah I'm going to
1:23:21
Speaker 1: talk about for a couple of reasons. Towson, they're in Maryland,
1:23:24
Speaker 1: and the fact they have to go all the way
1:23:26
Speaker 1: out into elevation. That does have me worried about Towson
1:23:30
Speaker 1: in this one right off the bat. They're not used
1:23:33
Speaker 1: to playing in high elevation when they're a team out
1:23:35
Speaker 1: of Maryland. They're not used to playing late at night
1:23:38
Speaker 1: like this for the most part, really, either at 9 p.m.
1:23:41
Speaker 1: their time in Utah in an unfamiliar environment. So right away, yeah,
1:23:46
Speaker 1: that doesn't look great for Towson here. Towson, they're in
1:23:50
Speaker 1: California already, though, so at least the time zone thing
1:23:54
Speaker 1: won't be that bad because they played in California already,
1:23:56
Speaker 1: so they're actually coming one time zone back east now,
1:23:59
Speaker 1: so that would be okay for them, but going into
1:24:01
Speaker 1: high elevation, coming off a pretty big effort that they
1:24:04
Speaker 1: put up against Santa Clara, it was not a bad team.
1:24:07
Speaker 1: Only lost that game by 19. Now, Towson, they are
1:24:10
Speaker 1: one of the better teams in their conference, the Colonials,
1:24:12
Speaker 1: so they're not that bad of a team, but the
1:24:15
Speaker 1: spot looks pretty questionable to me, even though They should
1:24:20
Speaker 1: get up for a game against Utah because this is
1:24:21
Speaker 1: going to be maybe the only game they have against
1:24:24
Speaker 1: a power conference team all year. So this is kind
1:24:26
Speaker 1: of their Super Bowl, if you will, here. They play
1:24:29
Speaker 1: UCF later in the season, so there is that one too.
1:24:32
Speaker 1: But Utah has a little bit more name recognition than
1:24:37
Speaker 1: UCF and whatever. So yeah, I think they'll try to
1:24:40
Speaker 1: get up for this game. But having to go from California,
1:24:42
Speaker 1: a tough game against Santa Clara, who was a tournament
1:24:44
Speaker 1: team last year, into Utah to high elevation. Looks pretty
1:24:47
Speaker 1: difficult to me for Towson. And then on the other
1:24:50
Speaker 1: side of things, I like Utah in this spot because Utah,
1:24:54
Speaker 1: they had a horrible game against Long Beach State in
1:24:56
Speaker 1: their opener. Really, really bad performance. Only beating them 66-63.
1:25:01
Speaker 1: And Utah was the big favorite in this game. There's
1:25:04
Speaker 1: no question about that. They were a 19.5 point favorite.
1:25:06
Speaker 1: And you know I talk about that when you have
1:25:08
Speaker 1: a big favorite that does not play well. In their
1:25:11
Speaker 1: first game, a lot of times they get a scare
1:25:13
Speaker 1: and they refocus in their next game. So I do
1:25:15
Speaker 1: lean towards Utah as the favorite in this one. Although
1:25:20
Speaker 1: maybe to the public eye, it still looks too easy
1:25:22
Speaker 1: to take Utah because they have the name recognition and
1:25:24
Speaker 1: they're only laying seven and a half up to about
1:25:27
Speaker 1: eight and a half here. It's a really low total,
1:25:29
Speaker 1: by the way. 138.5, so Utah looks like they probably
1:25:33
Speaker 1: have a pretty bad offense this year, and they're not
1:25:36
Speaker 1: a very good team, I know. They're probably one of
1:25:38
Speaker 1: the bottom teams in the Big 12, but in this spot,
1:25:42
Speaker 1: I think they bounce back and put in a better effort,
1:25:44
Speaker 1: and you're not asking that much of them to win
1:25:46
Speaker 1: by eight points here, basically, and it looks like the
1:25:49
Speaker 1: public is kind of leaning Towson, because I think they see, oh,
1:25:53
Speaker 1: you know, Both teams are 0-1. They're not really going
1:25:55
Speaker 1: to want to lay the points with Utah necessarily. And
1:25:58
Speaker 1: I think they might look at those first results and
1:26:00
Speaker 1: be like, oh, Towson lost in kind of a higher
1:26:02
Speaker 1: scoring game against that Santa Clara team that we remember,
1:26:05
Speaker 1: who was kind of a public darling in the tournament
1:26:07
Speaker 1: last year. Utah's win looks so bad. I think the
1:26:11
Speaker 1: public is not really going to want to lay points
1:26:13
Speaker 1: with them. So maybe that's what's going on here. 62%
1:26:15
Speaker 1: of the tickets and cash on Towson. I would lay
1:26:19
Speaker 1: the points with Utah in that one if I was
1:26:21
Speaker 1: going to do anything with that game. And then at
1:26:23
Speaker 1: least you also have the elevation edge maybe for Utah
1:26:26
Speaker 1: there with Towson. Not used to it. And then to
1:26:29
Speaker 1: finish this off, we have number five, Arizona, on TruTV
1:26:32
Speaker 1: against Cal Poly here. I'd probably be leaning against Arizona here.
1:26:36
Speaker 1: They're coming off... I know they lost their first game,
1:26:38
Speaker 1: but that was a big televised game against UCLA. And
1:26:41
Speaker 1: I told you UCLA is... A team that's kind of
1:26:44
Speaker 1: on the rise again here, and I thought they would
1:26:46
Speaker 1: surprise some people. They got the outright win as a
1:26:48
Speaker 1: little bit of an underdog there against Arizona in Las Vegas. Now,
1:26:53
Speaker 1: Arizona doesn't really have anything big necessarily coming up. They
1:26:56
Speaker 1: play Northern Arizona next, which is obviously a bigger game
1:26:59
Speaker 1: for Northern Arizona, but it is still a big little
1:27:01
Speaker 1: brother situation, and I'm not sure I see Arizona having
1:27:05
Speaker 1: full focus here against a Cal Poly team off of
1:27:09
Speaker 1: this UCLA game. Now Cal Poly, if they're the same
1:27:12
Speaker 1: thing this year that they have been recently, they're a
1:27:14
Speaker 1: team that plays ridiculously fast and they play no defense.
1:27:18
Speaker 1: That's what Cal Poly does. So Arizona may come in
1:27:21
Speaker 1: here and just slow the game down and try to
1:27:23
Speaker 1: mess them up that way. Arizona can kind of play
1:27:25
Speaker 1: at any tempo, though they are kind of more of
1:27:28
Speaker 1: a fast-paced team now as well, though. And if Arizona
1:27:31
Speaker 1: goes fast, Cal Poly will play that style with them.
1:27:36
Speaker 1: So we'll see how that works out. But that kind
1:27:38
Speaker 1: of makes me, you know, More hesitant to want to
1:27:40
Speaker 1: play the underdog in this one. The total is really
1:27:44
Speaker 1: high at 173.5. Like I said, that's because it's Cal Poly.
1:27:49
Speaker 1: Like this Cal Poly team, again, yeah, they play one
1:27:52
Speaker 1: of the fastest paces in all of college basketball and
1:27:55
Speaker 1: play absolutely zero defense. So it's an insane way to play.
1:27:59
Speaker 1: It's not good. But that's what they do. So I
1:28:02
Speaker 1: wouldn't disagree with the over in this game. And, you know,
1:28:06
Speaker 1: when the total's high, it's high for a reason. So
1:28:07
Speaker 1: you usually want to go over in games like this.
1:28:10
Speaker 1: And the style of the game seems like it would
1:28:14
Speaker 1: tell you that the over does make sense here in
1:28:16
Speaker 1: this one. Arizona's also public, 92% of the tickets on them,
1:28:20
Speaker 1: 89% of the cash on them. They're a 30.5-point favorite, 31. But, again,
1:28:26
Speaker 1: it's easier to cover a big number like that when
1:28:28
Speaker 1: you think there's going to be a ton of points
1:28:29
Speaker 1: in the game. I do lean slightly towards Cal Poly
1:28:33
Speaker 1: plus the points. I would not want to do it.
1:28:35
Speaker 1: And perhaps the better way to play this game is
1:28:37
Speaker 1: indeed the over. And let me see what, does Ken
1:28:40
Speaker 1: Baum have as Arizona's tempo right now even though we
1:28:42
Speaker 1: don't have much data to go on right now he's
1:28:44
Speaker 1: also using data from last year he's got Arizona 23rd
1:28:47
Speaker 1: in the country in tempo so he has them fast
1:28:50
Speaker 1: he has Cal Poly number two like I said who's
1:28:55
Speaker 1: faster than they are I thought Cal Poly would be
1:28:57
Speaker 1: number one Alabama is right now. Yeah, I mean, that
1:29:02
Speaker 1: makes sense. Alabama does play ridiculously fast too, but yeah.
1:29:06
Speaker 1: I think it's a bad style to play, to be honest.
1:29:09
Speaker 1: I don't like it, but whatever. Yeah, so those are
1:29:13
Speaker 1: my thoughts on the college basketball board. Yeah, Utah's not
1:29:17
Speaker 1: that good, but they still should have won that game
1:29:19
Speaker 1: more easily against Long Beach. That game, I think that
1:29:23
Speaker 1: game was in Utah too, so that's even worse. Let
1:29:27
Speaker 1: me see. I believe it was. I could be wrong.
1:29:30
Speaker 1: Some of these games are neutral site games and stuff. Yeah,
1:29:32
Speaker 1: this game was in Utah, in Salt Lake City, which
1:29:35
Speaker 1: I believe that is where the university is, right? I think.
1:29:39
Speaker 1: Dirty sock, what's up? Wait, is that true? Or you're
1:29:45
Speaker 1: just making it up to get people? Well, I don't know.
1:29:47
Speaker 1: Find out. Maybe a football appears when you hit the
1:29:49
Speaker 1: like button. Yes. Yeah, I'm sure that happens. Yeah. Yes,
1:29:54
Speaker 1: good morning to everybody. maverick thank you sir uh i
1:30:00
Speaker 1: i try uh you know hopefully we can get the
1:30:02
Speaker 1: wins on the ones i gave out today um it's
1:30:06
Speaker 1: been good hockey's one of my better sports for handicapping
1:30:09
Speaker 1: so it's been it's been good over the years i
1:30:11
Speaker 1: i initially didn't really do hockey and then i started
1:30:14
Speaker 1: getting into it um yeah wow all right we're moving
1:30:19
Speaker 1: up in the world man if you can get a
1:30:21
Speaker 1: football now on the uh on the like button. But yeah,
1:30:24
Speaker 1: try it out. Dirty sock. Figure out if he's telling
1:30:27
Speaker 1: the truth or not. All right, college football, ESPN and ESPN2.
1:30:33
Speaker 1: You want to talk about overs. UTSA at Florida Atlantic
1:30:36
Speaker 1: here at 7.30 on ESPN. Take a look at this total.
1:30:40
Speaker 1: because it's Florida Atlantic, and UTSA also, they score as well.
1:30:44
Speaker 1: This total is 73, basically, and it's, like I said
1:30:48
Speaker 1: with Florida Atlantic last week against North Texas, you're looking
1:30:51
Speaker 1: at a Florida Atlantic team that scores a ton, and
1:30:54
Speaker 1: they don't play defense, and North Texas is fine to
1:30:57
Speaker 1: play that style as well. Now we're talking about UTSA here,
1:31:00
Speaker 1: but yeah, UTSA, they have an offense that can definitely
1:31:02
Speaker 1: score as well, so I think this game, probably the
1:31:05
Speaker 1: better way to play this game is the over, and
1:31:07
Speaker 1: that FAU-North Texas game went over I landed on 89
1:31:12
Speaker 1: and it was way high scoring early then there was
1:31:14
Speaker 1: a low and it actually looked like it wasn't gonna
1:31:16
Speaker 1: hit then a bunch of points came home late as
1:31:19
Speaker 1: well but yeah the odds makers are telling you something
1:31:21
Speaker 1: by putting a total this high I would be leaning
1:31:24
Speaker 1: towards the over in this game I think both teams
1:31:26
Speaker 1: are gonna put up a bunch of points here though
1:31:28
Speaker 1: UTSA is the only one of these two teams that
1:31:30
Speaker 1: does play any defense their defense is okay but But
1:31:34
Speaker 1: even so, I think the offenses are probably going to
1:31:36
Speaker 1: win out here. FAU, I believe they still have Veltkamp
1:31:40
Speaker 1: as their quarterback. He's got a lot of experience. He's
1:31:42
Speaker 1: pretty good. UTSA, I believe, still has Owen McCown, who
1:31:46
Speaker 1: is Josh McCown's son. I think, yeah, Veltkamp is still
1:31:50
Speaker 1: there for FAU. So, yeah, you got some experienced quarterbacks
1:31:55
Speaker 1: going at it here as well. For FAU, they're coming
1:31:57
Speaker 1: up with that loss to North Texas, which was last Thursday.
1:32:01
Speaker 1: High-scoring loss, though. So people... may still like, uh, FAU
1:32:06
Speaker 1: off of that loss. Uh, you know, however, um, I
1:32:10
Speaker 1: think UTSA is in a tough spot here though. UTSA,
1:32:12
Speaker 1: they're seven and one and they, uh, they've had more
1:32:16
Speaker 1: time off. They last played, um, Last Saturday, the 24th,
1:32:20
Speaker 1: and they continued their win streak. They've won five games
1:32:23
Speaker 1: in a row, and they beat Tulane in that game.
1:32:26
Speaker 1: UTSA doesn't have the greatest resume here, really. Their wins
1:32:31
Speaker 1: on this win streak are all kind of bad, to
1:32:33
Speaker 1: be honest. The best team they beat in here was Navy,
1:32:36
Speaker 1: I would say. Still not good, man. So UTSA, well,
1:32:41
Speaker 1: I like their offense. They do still have McCown there. UTSA,
1:32:44
Speaker 1: they run the football really well. They're a pretty balanced
1:32:48
Speaker 1: offensive attack, so I do think they're going to put
1:32:50
Speaker 1: up a bunch of points here. But as far as
1:32:52
Speaker 1: the side, I don't like them because I think their
1:32:55
Speaker 1: five-game win streak was actually weaker than you'd think because
1:32:58
Speaker 1: they didn't really beat any really good opponents in here.
1:33:01
Speaker 1: And again, having extra time off, as I always say,
1:33:03
Speaker 1: that can disrupt your momentum. So I think having extra
1:33:06
Speaker 1: time off when you're rolling like this, that's not what
1:33:09
Speaker 1: you want. And it gets a little bit worse for
1:33:11
Speaker 1: them because look what they have on deck. They have
1:33:13
Speaker 1: to play North Texas next. That's a huge game because
1:33:17
Speaker 1: these teams are tied atop this conference right now. They're
1:33:21
Speaker 1: both 4-0, and you're talking about trying to get into
1:33:23
Speaker 1: the college football playoff. If one of these teams wins
1:33:28
Speaker 1: this conference with one loss or whatever... They might wind
1:33:31
Speaker 1: up in the college football playoff, and Tulane actually wound
1:33:34
Speaker 1: up in it last year. So there's a lot at stake,
1:33:37
Speaker 1: I think, in that game between North Texas and UTSA.
1:33:40
Speaker 1: So UTSA might be looking ahead at this point, man,
1:33:43
Speaker 1: past this Florida Atlantic team that's taken some losses now.
1:33:46
Speaker 1: So I do like FAU plus the points in this one.
1:33:49
Speaker 1: I still think I might prefer the over, but those
1:33:52
Speaker 1: are my opinions on this game. I don't hate the
1:33:55
Speaker 1: FAU side either, but the money really doesn't agree with me.
1:33:58
Speaker 1: 61% of the tickets are on FAU, 65% of the
1:34:01
Speaker 1: cash on UTSA, but this is UTSA out of their
1:34:05
Speaker 1: home dome. They're not playing in the Alamo Dome here.
1:34:09
Speaker 1: They're having to go from San Antonio over to the
1:34:13
Speaker 1: Atlantic Coast, over to Florida and play in Southern Florida
1:34:16
Speaker 1: or wherever the hell FAU is. I think it's somewhere... Actually,
1:34:19
Speaker 1: I think it's in Boca, actually. Am I right about that?
1:34:23
Speaker 1: I don't even know. So it's the rich people's school.
1:34:27
Speaker 1: I don't know, something like that. Whatever. But UTSA is
1:34:30
Speaker 1: a six and a half point favorite here. If you're
1:34:33
Speaker 1: going to take FAU, I think you will find a seven,
1:34:36
Speaker 1: but I'm not so sure. Especially if the real money,
1:34:39
Speaker 1: the professional money is playing UTSA right now. you might
1:34:42
Speaker 1: be able to get the seven on this, but I'm
1:34:43
Speaker 1: also maybe kind of suspicious that maybe the professionals are
1:34:47
Speaker 1: trying to get that line to seven to then come
1:34:49
Speaker 1: back and take the other side. I'm not sure that
1:34:51
Speaker 1: that's what they're trying to do here, but my read
1:34:53
Speaker 1: on this is based on the situation, I would take
1:34:56
Speaker 1: the points with FAU in this one. I think the
1:34:57
Speaker 1: spot's bad for UTSA. I think it's a momentum disruption
1:35:02
Speaker 1: spot plus a pretty big look ahead here. You know,
1:35:05
Speaker 1: I don't love taking points though when it's a massive
1:35:07
Speaker 1: total like this, but you know, You'll probably get a
1:35:12
Speaker 1: 7 on FAU if you really want to do that,
1:35:13
Speaker 1: but I do like the over in this game as well.
1:35:16
Speaker 1: Like I said, 68% of the tickets and 91% of
1:35:19
Speaker 1: the cash on the over. 72.5 is basically where the
1:35:22
Speaker 1: number is here, and it's that high for a reason,
1:35:25
Speaker 1: like I said. Those are my thoughts on that game.
1:35:28
Speaker 1: I like the over, and I lean towards FAU plus
1:35:31
Speaker 1: the points there. Hopefully getting 7. Yes, sir. Fig nuts.
1:35:37
Speaker 1: You do props in hockey. I do not do props,
1:35:42
Speaker 1: but air raid offense. FAU definitely throws the ball. Uh,
1:35:47
Speaker 1: so I don't know if they qualify as an air
1:35:49
Speaker 1: raid or not. I think FAU is mostly a passing attack. UTSA, no.
1:35:54
Speaker 1: UTSA runs the football more than they throw it. Uh,
1:35:57
Speaker 1: but they're, they're a pretty balanced attack on their offense,
1:35:59
Speaker 1: but their, their rushing attack is really good. Uh, UTSA,
1:36:03
Speaker 1: they could definitely put up a lot of points. They
1:36:05
Speaker 1: have a balanced offense and FAU's defense is not really
1:36:08
Speaker 1: going to be able to slow them down much. I
1:36:10
Speaker 1: wouldn't think because their defense is terrible. So, um, Yeah,
1:36:14
Speaker 1: I think you're going to get a lot of points
1:36:15
Speaker 1: in this one. So if you want fireworks, this will
1:36:17
Speaker 1: probably be an entertaining game. And then the other game,
1:36:20
Speaker 1: we have James Madison at Southern Miss. What do we
1:36:24
Speaker 1: do with James Madison, man? The question with James Madison
1:36:27
Speaker 1: is now they have two losses in a row. They
1:36:30
Speaker 1: were rolling along at 7-0, but they faced a pretty
1:36:33
Speaker 1: weak schedule. Remember, James Madison made the playoff last year.
1:36:36
Speaker 1: They've been a very good team the last couple years,
1:36:39
Speaker 1: but they've lost their last two coaches, of course. Kurt Cignetti,
1:36:42
Speaker 1: as we know, went to Indiana and then won the title.
1:36:46
Speaker 1: Chesney left and went to UCLA. Are they still undefeated
1:36:50
Speaker 1: right now? I think they are in college football. So
1:36:53
Speaker 1: that's what we got going on here is James Madison
1:36:55
Speaker 1: team has become a powerhouse. But after they started out
1:36:57
Speaker 1: this season 7-0, they took an overtime loss in a
1:37:01
Speaker 1: midweek game at App State. A game, yeah, that they
1:37:05
Speaker 1: didn't play their best. And then I think that just
1:37:07
Speaker 1: knocked their momentum completely out. And you remember last week,
1:37:10
Speaker 1: I actually got both of these games right as far
1:37:12
Speaker 1: as the spread is concerned. I leaned towards both underdogs here.
1:37:16
Speaker 1: But you remember last week what I said was that
1:37:19
Speaker 1: JMU's momentum was going to be potentially stopped by that.
1:37:22
Speaker 1: And I thought they were going to not cover against
1:37:24
Speaker 1: Troy as a huge favorite at home. I think they
1:37:27
Speaker 1: were like a three-touchdown home favorite. Did I expect them
1:37:30
Speaker 1: to lose the game outright? No. But I liked Troy
1:37:32
Speaker 1: to cover this one. And James Madison, I don't know
1:37:35
Speaker 1: what happened in that game. They were winning 14-0 early,
1:37:37
Speaker 1: and then they completely fell apart. And Troy slowed them
1:37:41
Speaker 1: down and won the game. I think also in overtime.
1:37:45
Speaker 1: So at this point, you really have to consider that
1:37:48
Speaker 1: the Dream Crusher is might be what you're going to
1:37:51
Speaker 1: get from James Madison at this point. You've got to
1:37:54
Speaker 1: worry about their motivation right now. As a two-loss team,
1:37:58
Speaker 1: I don't think they're going to make the playoff. I
1:38:02
Speaker 1: think they have to pick two of these smaller conference
1:38:05
Speaker 1: teams to make the playoff. With a two-loss JMU team
1:38:09
Speaker 1: in this particular conference in the Sun Belt... I don't
1:38:12
Speaker 1: think it's happening. So I think JMU, that was their goal,
1:38:15
Speaker 1: to get back to the playoff again this year. They
1:38:18
Speaker 1: can still win this conference. That goal is still alive,
1:38:21
Speaker 1: I think. But it's also going to be difficult for
1:38:24
Speaker 1: them to do that, I think. like let me see
1:38:26
Speaker 1: where the standings here well I mean in their division
1:38:29
Speaker 1: they can still make the the championship game because in
1:38:32
Speaker 1: their division they're only behind Georgia Southern and they have
1:38:36
Speaker 1: the tiebreaker against Georgia Southern because they beat them earlier
1:38:39
Speaker 1: so If Georgia Southern stumbles and James Madison keeps winning
1:38:44
Speaker 1: or gets back to their winning ways, yeah, James Madison
1:38:46
Speaker 1: can still make the conference championship game and win the conference,
1:38:50
Speaker 1: but that would be a step down from what they
1:38:52
Speaker 1: did last year. So it's motivation, man. I don't know
1:38:56
Speaker 1: if they're going to have it here. That's the thing,
1:38:57
Speaker 1: because usually when you get a team that is coming
1:38:59
Speaker 1: off a loss as a big favorite, I like to
1:39:02
Speaker 1: take that team to bounce back, right, because they had
1:39:04
Speaker 1: a bad performance and it should shock them back into focus.
1:39:08
Speaker 1: They're playing Southern Miss here, by the way. I haven't
1:39:09
Speaker 1: even mentioned that yet. They're at Southern Miss here. Southern
1:39:13
Speaker 1: Miss is not a great team, but I don't know
1:39:15
Speaker 1: if James Madison is going to be in a bounce-back
1:39:19
Speaker 1: mode off of that loss. That could be the nail
1:39:23
Speaker 1: in the coffin for them where it's definite dream crusher.
1:39:25
Speaker 1: As a one-loss team, maybe they thought they had some
1:39:29
Speaker 1: hope here. Not anymore. What they have left to play
1:39:33
Speaker 1: for is winning the Sun Belt, but Winning the Sun
1:39:36
Speaker 1: Belt is not going to get them into the playoff
1:39:38
Speaker 1: now at this point. So, yeah, I think their motivation
1:39:41
Speaker 1: can be questioned here. For Southern Miss, they'll get up
1:39:45
Speaker 1: for this game at least. I mean, this is a
1:39:46
Speaker 1: big deal for them hosting James Madison. And I'll mention
1:39:50
Speaker 1: it again, these midweek games, the home team usually has
1:39:52
Speaker 1: a little bit of an advantage. So I actually do
1:39:55
Speaker 1: lean towards both home underdogs here. Home team usually gets
1:39:58
Speaker 1: a little bit more up for these primetime games that
1:40:01
Speaker 1: are isolated because they know they have more eyes on them.
1:40:04
Speaker 1: Their crowd tends to show up with a little bit
1:40:06
Speaker 1: more intensity and intensity. Yeah, it's just a bigger event
1:40:11
Speaker 1: on campus, you know what I mean? So it's just
1:40:12
Speaker 1: a little bit of a bigger deal, so I think
1:40:14
Speaker 1: they get a little bit of a bump here. JMU's
1:40:16
Speaker 1: laying 13.5. Now, if you want Southern Miss, I would
1:40:20
Speaker 1: try to find a 14, and you might be able
1:40:22
Speaker 1: to get it again. It opened 14.5, though, so you
1:40:24
Speaker 1: can see some real money has come in on Southern
1:40:27
Speaker 1: Miss because it's knocked this price down through that key
1:40:30
Speaker 1: number of 14. With the public on JMU, 75% of
1:40:32
Speaker 1: the tickets on them, only 53% of the money, so.
1:40:37
Speaker 1: Margaret Reid is definitely saying to take the points with
1:40:39
Speaker 1: Southern Miss. I'm not going to disagree with it, even
1:40:42
Speaker 1: though normally I would think James Madison would be in
1:40:44
Speaker 1: a bounce back. I worry about the dream crusher here.
1:40:48
Speaker 1: You know, two touchdowns on the road, kind of a
1:40:50
Speaker 1: bit to lay here. If you want Southern Miss, I
1:40:52
Speaker 1: would wait and hope that you get a 14 again here,
1:40:55
Speaker 1: because it is gone at this point. I do also
1:40:59
Speaker 1: kind of lean towards the over in this game as well.
1:41:01
Speaker 1: The total's gone up three points already, though, so it's
1:41:04
Speaker 1: gone through. I think 57 is kind of a key number,
1:41:07
Speaker 1: and it's up to 58 and a half now, but...
1:41:09
Speaker 1: The over makes some sense here. We have 81% of
1:41:12
Speaker 1: tickets and 90% of the cash on the over Southern Miss.
1:41:15
Speaker 1: I mean, their offense is okay. Their defense is really bad.
1:41:19
Speaker 1: So I think James Madison, you know, can score some
1:41:23
Speaker 1: points here, even though I do worry about them not
1:41:25
Speaker 1: being focused enough here. So I think I prefer the
1:41:27
Speaker 1: over in the other game. I prefer the side in
1:41:30
Speaker 1: the other game over anything with this game. Yeah, so
1:41:33
Speaker 1: I think my top two opinions in college football are
1:41:35
Speaker 1: both in that first game. I like the over in
1:41:37
Speaker 1: that first game with UTSA and FAU, and I like
1:41:40
Speaker 1: FAU plus the points. I don't like any of it
1:41:43
Speaker 1: as much in this game, but I will lean to
1:41:44
Speaker 1: the home underdog again in this game, Southern Miss plus
1:41:46
Speaker 1: the points, and I will also lean over in this game.
1:41:51
Speaker 1: This game I don't have as good of a read on, though.
1:41:54
Speaker 1: So that's basically what I got here on this game.
1:41:56
Speaker 1: I think that's pretty much it. Southern Miss just beat
1:41:59
Speaker 1: UL Monroe in their last game, whatever. I mean, UL
1:42:02
Speaker 1: Monroe's awful, so that's not a big win at all,
1:42:06
Speaker 1: but it will give them momentum coming into this game.
1:42:08
Speaker 1: And they're not going to overlook JMU, even though they
1:42:11
Speaker 1: have La Tech on deck, and La Tech is in
1:42:13
Speaker 1: their division and leading their division, Southern Miss' division, the
1:42:18
Speaker 1: Sunbelt West. La Tech is the only undefeated Sunbelt team
1:42:22
Speaker 1: left here. I believe they have not played James Madison,
1:42:25
Speaker 1: so maybe that's part of the reason why. Although a
1:42:29
Speaker 1: couple of these teams beat James Madison, so, you know. Yeah,
1:42:33
Speaker 1: I think that's it for college football. That game's on ESPN2.
1:42:36
Speaker 1: That brings us to the NFL game, Jacksonville and Baltimore,
1:42:39
Speaker 1: and I just have to do it, man. Really, this
1:42:43
Speaker 1: is just about the number at this point. This number
1:42:45
Speaker 1: has gotten just... This number is just totally out of control, man.
1:42:49
Speaker 1: We're going to do it. We're going to take the
1:42:51
Speaker 1: Ravens plus 10. I mean, you have to be kidding me.
1:42:54
Speaker 1: The Ravens are a 10-point underdog now at home. Is
1:42:59
Speaker 1: that really what we're doing? Like, is this line justified? No,
1:43:04
Speaker 1: I don't think so. I mean, yeah, the Ravens have
1:43:07
Speaker 1: lost their quarterback. They've lost multiple quarterbacks now. okay, but
1:43:12
Speaker 1: is that worth moving this line this extremely? If Lamar
1:43:16
Speaker 1: Jackson was playing, what do you think this line would be?
1:43:20
Speaker 1: Jacksonville maybe would be a three-point favorite, and we're looking
1:43:23
Speaker 1: at 10 here. And by the way, before the season started,
1:43:28
Speaker 1: which I know we have to adjust as the season
1:43:30
Speaker 1: goes on, we have to adjust to what these teams
1:43:32
Speaker 1: show that they really are, if we can gauge that.
1:43:35
Speaker 1: But before the season began, Baltimore was going to be
1:43:38
Speaker 1: a four-and-a-half-point favorite in this game. Now, you know, several
1:43:42
Speaker 1: weeks into the season, they're a 10-point underdog. So from
1:43:46
Speaker 1: the beginning of the season, you're telling me that we've
1:43:50
Speaker 1: seen enough to justify a line move, including the quarterback injury,
1:43:54
Speaker 1: I know, a line move of more than two touchdowns
1:43:58
Speaker 1: on this game. Are you serious? No, I mean, come on,
1:44:01
Speaker 1: come on. This is still the Ravens. This is still
1:44:05
Speaker 1: a competitive Ravens team, okay? I know they didn't look
1:44:08
Speaker 1: like it last week, and I know I keep saying
1:44:09
Speaker 1: I think the Ravens are competitive, and they fall short
1:44:12
Speaker 1: of what I think they are. I thought there was
1:44:15
Speaker 1: an issue between Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson. I thought that
1:44:18
Speaker 1: was a thing, which is why Harbaugh left. Lamar Jackson,
1:44:22
Speaker 1: he still seems like he doesn't want to play, though.
1:44:25
Speaker 1: And last week, he injured his finger right away. Maybe
1:44:29
Speaker 1: that affects your throwing enough to keep you out of
1:44:30
Speaker 1: the game, but I don't know, man. I've seen a
1:44:32
Speaker 1: lot of quarterbacks play through finger injuries, so I'm not
1:44:35
Speaker 1: really sure what is going on there. Lamar Jackson seems
1:44:37
Speaker 1: like he's a head case to me. He seems like
1:44:39
Speaker 1: he doesn't want to play anymore, so I don't mind
1:44:42
Speaker 1: that he's not playing here. Last week's game, Baltimore against Buffalo,
1:44:46
Speaker 1: Jackson was out literally on the first offensive play that
1:44:49
Speaker 1: they ran. He was out of the game. Then they
1:44:51
Speaker 1: put Huntley in, and while Huntley does have experience, he
1:44:54
Speaker 1: got hurt too. So he only played like half the
1:44:57
Speaker 1: game or something, so I think you don't want to
1:44:59
Speaker 1: put much weight into what happened in that game last
1:45:01
Speaker 1: week because Baltimore, you know, their third-string quarterback, rookie Joe Fagnano,
1:45:08
Speaker 1: the Italian man, was thrust into that game with basically
1:45:13
Speaker 1: no prep time, even though I know your third-string quarterback preps,
1:45:16
Speaker 1: but if you're the third-string quarterback, you're not expected to
1:45:19
Speaker 1: come into the game, and he had to make his
1:45:20
Speaker 1: NFL debut, and he was terrible. There's no way around that.
1:45:24
Speaker 1: He was awful. I think he was like 10 for 21,
1:45:27
Speaker 1: and he threw an interception. Okay. I don't think he's
1:45:31
Speaker 1: that bad, though. There's a reason why Baltimore drafted this guy.
1:45:34
Speaker 1: He lit it up in college at UConn, although I
1:45:36
Speaker 1: know he didn't face great opponents with UConn. He was
1:45:39
Speaker 1: very good in college, and he looked good in preseason
1:45:42
Speaker 1: as well, although I know he was against third-string defenses
1:45:45
Speaker 1: a lot of the time during preseason. but I don't
1:45:48
Speaker 1: think Fagnano is as bad as he looked last week,
1:45:51
Speaker 1: and I think there are going to be reasons why
1:45:54
Speaker 1: this team is going to step up. First of all,
1:45:56
Speaker 1: we have the injured player theory going on here, which
1:45:58
Speaker 1: I always talk about. I talk about how a team,
1:46:00
Speaker 1: when their quarterback goes down, they will step up their
1:46:03
Speaker 1: level of play in the next game. This Baltimore team,
1:46:06
Speaker 1: they're not out of it. They're 4-4. There were a
1:46:09
Speaker 1: couple games back in their division. It's not looking good,
1:46:11
Speaker 1: but they're not dead yet, and they're playing a good
1:46:14
Speaker 1: Jacksonville team, so at home on prime time. So you've
1:46:17
Speaker 1: got to think Baltimore is going to give an effort
1:46:19
Speaker 1: in this game. And you've got to think the team
1:46:21
Speaker 1: will rally around the rookie QB here. I think they're
1:46:24
Speaker 1: going to rally again because they know they need to
1:46:26
Speaker 1: because the quarterbacks are injured. But I think you're going
1:46:29
Speaker 1: to see a big effort out of them because they
1:46:30
Speaker 1: want to back this rookie QB as well if they
1:46:33
Speaker 1: like him. Fagnano. Haven't heard anything to the contrary. They
1:46:37
Speaker 1: might like him better than Lamar Jackson because Lamar Jackson
1:46:39
Speaker 1: seems like he doesn't want to play. Whereas Fagnano, I
1:46:43
Speaker 1: think he's going to be hungry because he wants to
1:46:45
Speaker 1: get this job. And the job is not definitively his, man.
1:46:51
Speaker 1: We don't know how long Lamar Jackson is up, but
1:46:52
Speaker 1: you see what Baltimore's been doing. They made two moves
1:46:55
Speaker 1: already this week because they have so many quarterback injuries.
1:46:58
Speaker 1: They went and they picked up Keaton Slovis, who was
1:47:01
Speaker 1: cut by Arizona, I believe. So they actually picked up
1:47:04
Speaker 1: two Arizona quarterbacks. Got Slovis, who hasn't really been that good,
1:47:09
Speaker 1: but he has a few years of experience, mostly playing
1:47:12
Speaker 1: in the preseason and whatever, as like a backup. But yeah,
1:47:16
Speaker 1: they picked up Slovis, and I believe it's because Baltimore's
1:47:19
Speaker 1: quarterback coach, I believe, used to be his quarterback coach,
1:47:22
Speaker 1: so that's why they went and they got him. But
1:47:24
Speaker 1: then yesterday, I believe, they traded for Jacoby Brissett. So
1:47:29
Speaker 1: now that Arizona is moving away from Jacoby Brissett and
1:47:32
Speaker 1: they're going to be going with Gardner Minshew now, which
1:47:35
Speaker 1: I love Minshew, man. I love the stash. I love
1:47:38
Speaker 1: the denim cutoffs. You know, no homo or anything. But yeah,
1:47:42
Speaker 1: I love Minshew, dude. I love his aura. So I
1:47:46
Speaker 1: like what's going on there. And Arizona might be Shifting
1:47:50
Speaker 1: towards like they're gonna be using Carson back. You know
1:47:52
Speaker 1: what I mean? I think back is actually gonna be
1:47:54
Speaker 1: good and I think I'm in the minority there, but whatever.
1:47:57
Speaker 1: So Arizona's moving away. So Baltimore, just because they need
1:48:00
Speaker 1: quarterback help, they picked up Brissette. He's not going to
1:48:03
Speaker 1: be there yet. He's not going to be ready. So
1:48:05
Speaker 1: it is going to be Fagnano here. And I think
1:48:06
Speaker 1: the good thing about that, not only is I think
1:48:08
Speaker 1: the team going to rally for a rookie QB if
1:48:11
Speaker 1: they like him, but Fagnano knows the system right now
1:48:14
Speaker 1: because he's been there since the beginning of the year,
1:48:17
Speaker 1: at least since preseason. So he knows the system. whereas
1:48:20
Speaker 1: Brissette doesn't know it yet so Brissette you know will
1:48:22
Speaker 1: have to get up to speed and whatever I don't
1:48:24
Speaker 1: think Brissette's even going to be there yet like I
1:48:28
Speaker 1: don't even think he'll be in the locker room yet
1:48:29
Speaker 1: but whatever but I think Fagnano because he's kind of
1:48:33
Speaker 1: in this quarterback competition now he's going to want to
1:48:36
Speaker 1: do well here so that'll motivate him a little bit
1:48:39
Speaker 1: and There was one other thing I was going to
1:48:41
Speaker 1: say about this, and I can't remember what it was now. Yeah,
1:48:45
Speaker 1: I mean, I was coming up with all these different
1:48:46
Speaker 1: reasons why Baltimore is going to be motivated here, and
1:48:48
Speaker 1: I think I'm forgetting one of them. I think that's
1:48:52
Speaker 1: about it. The quarterback competition, the team rallying around, and
1:48:55
Speaker 1: plus the injured player spot. Plus the injured player spot,
1:48:58
Speaker 1: as I always say, it gives you line value, too.
1:49:00
Speaker 1: The line always overreacts. I think this is a major
1:49:03
Speaker 1: overreaction to not only the injury, but what we saw
1:49:06
Speaker 1: last week, right? Baltimore's lost three games in a row.
1:49:10
Speaker 1: They lost to the Browns, then they got blown out
1:49:12
Speaker 1: by the Bengals and the Bills, so nobody's going to
1:49:14
Speaker 1: want Baltimore now at this point. They're going to see
1:49:16
Speaker 1: what Jacksonville did last week. Jacksonville won 42-7. And I
1:49:21
Speaker 1: know Jacksonville is the more rested team here because they
1:49:23
Speaker 1: did have a bye before that. They're coming back from London, though,
1:49:27
Speaker 1: so maybe the rest isn't as significant for them here.
1:49:30
Speaker 1: But they destroyed the Colts last week, but what can
1:49:32
Speaker 1: you really take away from that? The Colts basically had
1:49:35
Speaker 1: a fire sale and basically said... That's the end of
1:49:38
Speaker 1: our season, pretty much, right? So, yeah, Jacksonville, I think,
1:49:42
Speaker 1: caught a Colts team that basically just had their dream
1:49:45
Speaker 1: crusher scenario, pretty much. And the Colts were coming off
1:49:49
Speaker 1: a tough game against Minnesota, too. So I did lean
1:49:53
Speaker 1: Jacksonville in that game, and they wiped the Colts off
1:49:56
Speaker 1: the map, basically, in that game. So, yeah, I mean,
1:49:59
Speaker 1: you're looking at lopsided results where Jacksonville looked excellent in
1:50:02
Speaker 1: their last game, blowing a team completely out. The Ravens
1:50:06
Speaker 1: got blown out, so nobody's going to want the Ravens
1:50:08
Speaker 1: here for all those reasons. You're looking also at a
1:50:11
Speaker 1: quick turnaround time here for Jacksonville as the road team,
1:50:13
Speaker 1: and you know, I talk about that as well. On
1:50:15
Speaker 1: Thursday night, the home team can have a little bit
1:50:17
Speaker 1: of an advantage because the road team has one fewer
1:50:20
Speaker 1: day to prepare for this because they have to travel. Whereas,
1:50:23
Speaker 1: you know, Baltimore, I know they're having to travel back
1:50:25
Speaker 1: from Buffalo, but just going back from Buffalo to Baltimore. Fine. Uh,
1:50:29
Speaker 1: Jacksonville has got to, uh, travel up from Florida here. Uh,
1:50:33
Speaker 1: I don't know if, you know, the weather might be
1:50:35
Speaker 1: any sort of concern here. Probably not, but you know,
1:50:37
Speaker 1: Jacksonville is a warm weather team. As we know, uh,
1:50:40
Speaker 1: it's not going to be a problem for them here.
1:50:41
Speaker 1: It'll be 66. So that's not going to be an issue. Um,
1:50:45
Speaker 1: which it may be for one of the games this week,
1:50:47
Speaker 1: by the way. Um, But even so, I think Jacksonville
1:50:51
Speaker 1: on the quick turnaround time may be an issue here.
1:50:53
Speaker 1: I do wish Jacksonville had more of a look-ahead spot
1:50:55
Speaker 1: than they do. They do have a divisional game next,
1:50:58
Speaker 1: but it's the Tennessee Titans, so I don't really think
1:51:02
Speaker 1: that's going to be a look-ahead for Jacksonville. But the
1:51:05
Speaker 1: thing that's good here for fading Jacksonville is they have
1:51:08
Speaker 1: so much padding in their division right now. Like, jacksonville
1:51:12
Speaker 1: yeah they don't need this game as much as baltimore
1:51:14
Speaker 1: does the urgency is they're like baltimore jacksonville already has
1:51:17
Speaker 1: a three-game lead over houston even though houston does have
1:51:20
Speaker 1: the tiebreaker against them because houston beat them over in
1:51:24
Speaker 1: london but still jacksonville's got a three-game lead over houston
1:51:27
Speaker 1: and in and three and a half over indie and
1:51:30
Speaker 1: you know a whatever that is a four-game lead over
1:51:33
Speaker 1: tennessee i think is what that is or uh four
1:51:36
Speaker 1: and a half, I guess, so yeah, like, Jacksonville has
1:51:38
Speaker 1: all this padding in their division, so the urgency is
1:51:41
Speaker 1: clearly there for Baltimore, and you're getting 10 points with
1:51:44
Speaker 1: Baltimore with the more urgent team, the team that looks
1:51:47
Speaker 1: way worse right now, and a team that I think
1:51:50
Speaker 1: is being really undervalued, I mean, this Baltimore team, it's
1:51:53
Speaker 1: still the Baltimore Ravens, dude, like, yeah, I mean, I
1:51:56
Speaker 1: understand there's a quarterback drop-off here, but you're still looking
1:51:59
Speaker 1: at a Ravens team that Has a lot of talent
1:52:02
Speaker 1: on it, and if they're able to slow this game
1:52:05
Speaker 1: down and use Derrick Henry, now that's the other thing
1:52:08
Speaker 1: about this game is can Baltimore run the football here
1:52:10
Speaker 1: with Derrick Henry? I hope, because I believe, I'm going
1:52:14
Speaker 1: to have to look to see if I want to
1:52:15
Speaker 1: play him in my fantasy lineup or not this weekend.
1:52:17
Speaker 1: He hasn't been good recently, I know. And Jacksonville is
1:52:20
Speaker 1: actually a good run defense. Their pass defense is actually weak.
1:52:24
Speaker 1: So that does seem like a good defensive setup for
1:52:27
Speaker 1: Jacksonville because their defensive strength actually lines up with Baltimore's
1:52:31
Speaker 1: offensive strength, the rushing. However, Jacksonville lost two of their
1:52:36
Speaker 1: better defenders last week. They lost two defensive linemen last
1:52:40
Speaker 1: week who were two of their better run stoppers. They
1:52:42
Speaker 1: both got injured in the game last week. So Jacksonville...
1:52:45
Speaker 1: A little bit of an under-the-radar thing there. That's a
1:52:47
Speaker 1: little bit of a cluster injury that Jacksonville has going
1:52:50
Speaker 1: on on the defensive line right now, so that's not
1:52:53
Speaker 1: exactly great for them here. I believe, I forget who
1:52:56
Speaker 1: the guys are, but I believe both of them are
1:52:58
Speaker 1: not playing in this game. So that's a little bit
1:53:00
Speaker 1: of a hit to Baltimore's run defense here, or excuse me,
1:53:03
Speaker 1: to Jacksonville, excuse me, to Jacksonville's run defense here. Yeah,
1:53:07
Speaker 1: this line opened nine, and it is already up to 10.
1:53:10
Speaker 1: If you can't find the 10 right now, I would wait,
1:53:12
Speaker 1: but I think you're going to find it. It's at
1:53:13
Speaker 1: half of the books right now already. Jacksonville's a public side,
1:53:17
Speaker 1: so I think you'll get the 10 at some point today.
1:53:19
Speaker 1: I mean, you could also wait. You might even get
1:53:21
Speaker 1: a 10 and a half on this. I mean, I
1:53:23
Speaker 1: don't know if I'm going to I don't know if
1:53:26
Speaker 1: I really see that happening, but a 10 is still
1:53:28
Speaker 1: ridiculous in this game. 74% of the tickets and 77%
1:53:31
Speaker 1: of the cash on Jacksonville. Public will be all over
1:53:34
Speaker 1: Jacksonville here, and the total is crazy low. And I
1:53:38
Speaker 1: think a lot of that is because Baltimore's offense is
1:53:39
Speaker 1: expected to be ass in this game. Okay, but 39.5
1:53:43
Speaker 1: is the total. That's one of the lower totals you're
1:53:45
Speaker 1: going to get in the NFL, and you're getting double
1:53:49
Speaker 1: digits with the home team in a game with a
1:53:52
Speaker 1: total that low. Yeah, that's a lot of value with
1:53:55
Speaker 1: that point spread, man. A 10-point spread in a game
1:53:59
Speaker 1: with a total of 39. Yeah, let's do it. I
1:54:03
Speaker 1: think we have to, just like out of principle. This
1:54:06
Speaker 1: is more of a line value play than anything else,
1:54:09
Speaker 1: but I do think the situation is good for it
1:54:11
Speaker 1: as well. We're going to take the Ravens plus 10,
1:54:15
Speaker 1: and that is the conclusion of the show, finally. Long
1:54:20
Speaker 1: show today, a lot going on today. We got some plays.
1:54:23
Speaker 1: We got a split bet puck line, make your own
1:54:25
Speaker 1: plus one puck line on the St. Louis Blues. We
1:54:28
Speaker 1: have a split bet puck line, make your own puck
1:54:30
Speaker 1: line on the Vancouver Canucks as well, plus one there.
1:54:34
Speaker 1: So those two big underdogs in hockey. I do also
1:54:37
Speaker 1: have leans that I felt fairly strongly about on the
1:54:39
Speaker 1: Penguins and the Ducks, I believe. So take that into account.
1:54:45
Speaker 1: College basketball, we're on some ugly underdogs here. Mercyhurst, plus
1:54:49
Speaker 1: 21 and a half. We're on Jacksonville, plus 35.5. I
1:54:53
Speaker 1: think we're catching a couple of favorites that are in
1:54:56
Speaker 1: bad spots there, so let's do that. Oh, you know what?
1:55:02
Speaker 1: I'm going to give you a bonus lean. I forgot
1:55:05
Speaker 1: to talk about one of my stronger leans in basketball.
1:55:08
Speaker 1: I'm going to tell you about it in a minute.
1:55:10
Speaker 1: But we do have the Ravens, plus 10. But before
1:55:12
Speaker 1: I get out of here, how did I forget to
1:55:14
Speaker 1: talk about this game? Of course I got to talk
1:55:16
Speaker 1: about this game, because this... I was... you know, I'm
1:55:19
Speaker 1: surprised that I'm laying off of this game myself, to
1:55:21
Speaker 1: be honest, East Texas A & M against Rice. Um,
1:55:25
Speaker 1: now the, the market read really, really worries me about this.
1:55:30
Speaker 1: Cause I want it to fade East Texas A &
1:55:31
Speaker 1: M because if you didn't know East Texas A &
1:55:34
Speaker 1: M is coming up a historic upset. It's one of
1:55:38
Speaker 1: the biggest upsets in decades in college basketball. And that
1:55:42
Speaker 1: is they upset Oklahoma. And I believe it was actually
1:55:45
Speaker 1: in Oklahoma too. Um, Where are they? Here they are.
1:55:49
Speaker 1: East Texas A & M, yeah, at Oklahoma. They went
1:55:52
Speaker 1: in and they beat Oklahoma as like 29-point underdogs, one
1:55:55
Speaker 1: of the biggest upsets. To put that in perspective, that's
1:55:59
Speaker 1: bigger than FDU over Purdue in the 16 versus 1
1:56:03
Speaker 1: a couple years ago. I think that was like a
1:56:05
Speaker 1: 23-point upset. This is a 29-point upset here. East Texas
1:56:10
Speaker 1: A & M, this Oklahoma team, they got problems, man.
1:56:13
Speaker 1: But East Texas A & M coming up, that monumental
1:56:15
Speaker 1: win like that, you got to think it's a letdown
1:56:18
Speaker 1: spot for them here. They're going to play Rice. Now, Rice,
1:56:22
Speaker 1: East Texas A & M does probably consider Rice to
1:56:24
Speaker 1: be a big brother to them in the state of
1:56:27
Speaker 1: Texas because Rice is in Houston. But the only way
1:56:30
Speaker 1: that I could play this game is to fade East
1:56:32
Speaker 1: Texas A & M, formerly Texas A & M Commerce,
1:56:35
Speaker 1: because they play in Commerce, Texas. But, yeah, I mean,
1:56:39
Speaker 1: that was such a monumental upset. I'm shocked that I'm
1:56:41
Speaker 1: laying off of this game. The problem I have with
1:56:44
Speaker 1: it is Kenbaum, I believe, only has Rice winning this
1:56:47
Speaker 1: game by, like, one or two, which is not great here. Rice,
1:56:52
Speaker 1: you know, I'm not concerned about their spot because they
1:56:54
Speaker 1: just beat Dallas Christian, whatever, put up a decent performance there. Now,
1:56:58
Speaker 1: Rice does have Stanford on deck, so maybe that is
1:57:01
Speaker 1: a little bit concerning. They might look ahead to Stanford here.
1:57:04
Speaker 1: But I think because East Texas A & M pulled
1:57:06
Speaker 1: off that major upset, Rice is not going to overlook
1:57:09
Speaker 1: them here. But the market read looks like it's completely
1:57:12
Speaker 1: against this, and I don't know why. I think it's
1:57:15
Speaker 1: probably just because of the number. Like I said, Ken
1:57:17
Speaker 1: Baum has this number way lower than where this game opened, 6.5.
1:57:23
Speaker 1: Ken Baum, like I said, I think he has it
1:57:24
Speaker 1: at about 2. So maybe this is just the numbers, guys,
1:57:27
Speaker 1: coming in and taking East Texas A & M. But
1:57:29
Speaker 1: as a situational guy, there's no way I want East
1:57:32
Speaker 1: Texas A & M here. No way. I think they're
1:57:36
Speaker 1: in the biggest fade spot on the board here. 94%
1:57:38
Speaker 1: of the tickets, 93% of the cash on Rice, though.
1:57:41
Speaker 1: So Rice looks like a very public side. They're all
1:57:44
Speaker 1: the way down to three and a half. The total
1:57:46
Speaker 1: is low, but yeah, I mean, it's getting into that
1:57:50
Speaker 1: price range where it's making me almost want to do it.
1:57:53
Speaker 1: I'll lay off of it and... This is going to
1:57:56
Speaker 1: be one of the first times where I'm not fading
1:57:58
Speaker 1: a team off of an upset as big as that. Like,
1:58:00
Speaker 1: I'm almost always going to blindly just do that. And
1:58:04
Speaker 1: I almost want to. I'm going to be pissed when
1:58:06
Speaker 1: it wins. But, you know, yeah, I would only lay the...
1:58:10
Speaker 1: points with Rice in that game so I forgot to
1:58:13
Speaker 1: even talk about that and that was the first game
1:58:15
Speaker 1: that I was eyeing today was that game like I
1:58:18
Speaker 1: was sure that game was going to be on my
1:58:19
Speaker 1: card and it isn't you know just the market check
1:58:24
Speaker 1: doesn't look good to me and the, uh, the Ken
1:58:26
Speaker 1: bomb numbers don't look good to me either. So I will, uh,
1:58:30
Speaker 1: stay away from it. You know, the, the numbers guys,
1:58:33
Speaker 1: you know, I think that they, they, they ignore the
1:58:36
Speaker 1: situation to their own detriment. That's what I'll say. But, um,
1:58:39
Speaker 1: you got to respect what they do, you know, to, uh,
1:58:42
Speaker 1: you know, you have to do, you know, you have
1:58:44
Speaker 1: to respect it because like they have numbers that say
1:58:47
Speaker 1: a certain thing about how good each of these teams are.
1:58:50
Speaker 1: are so you know what i mean so if the
1:58:51
Speaker 1: number's off i still don't really want to do it
1:58:53
Speaker 1: even if i like the situation but then again that
1:58:56
Speaker 1: line is getting into that range where it might be
1:58:58
Speaker 1: playable like you're looking at maybe a three on rice
1:59:01
Speaker 1: now i'll stay off of it but yeah i would
1:59:06
Speaker 1: lay the points with rice there all right and that
1:59:09
Speaker 1: is it thanks guys for hanging out i appreciate it
1:59:12
Speaker 1: um you know newcomers uh regulars the new regulars perhaps
1:59:16
Speaker 1: yeah Learn to Tone on Twitter, Instagram, TikTok. Check it
1:59:20
Speaker 1: all out. Like, subscribe to the show here. Boost it up.
1:59:23
Speaker 1: Get it going, baby. You know, I listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker.
1:59:27
Speaker 1: That all helps me out as well. Covered in uke
1:59:30
Speaker 1: on YouTube. So you can check out my uke covers
1:59:33
Speaker 1: over there. What else? We got Patreon. Patreon.com slash Learn
1:59:39
Speaker 1: to Tone. I got to figure out better things to
1:59:41
Speaker 1: offer over there besides extra uke stuff. But yeah. Or
1:59:45
Speaker 1: if you just want to, you know, Throw some support
1:59:48
Speaker 1: over here so I can gamble it away. No, if
1:59:51
Speaker 1: what I'm doing is worth money to you and helping you,
1:59:54
Speaker 1: why not? So you can help me out over there.
1:59:56
Speaker 1: And let's see. What else? Loser cast every Tuesday night.
2:00:01
Speaker 1: I think that's all I got. That's it. Big card today.
2:00:05
Speaker 1: Could have been even bigger, but I feel like I'm
2:00:06
Speaker 1: restraining myself with this card today. That's going to do it.
2:00:10
Speaker 1: I appreciate everybody. Let's have a winning day. Let's go
2:00:13
Speaker 1: three and two at least today. That would be good.
2:00:15
Speaker 1: I'd be satisfied with that. I appreciate it. I forgot
2:00:19
Speaker 1: to put that back up after my hydration break, but
2:00:23
Speaker 1: I'll leave it up for the rest of the show.
2:00:26
Speaker 1: The banner there. Plus, I don't want to get any
2:00:29
Speaker 1: legal issues here. I got the gambling hotline up there.
2:00:33
Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't want people to have a gambling problem.
2:00:36
Speaker 1: This show is about the opposite of that. This show
2:00:38
Speaker 1: is about betting with discipline, you know what I mean,
2:00:40
Speaker 1: and money management. So it's the opposite of a gambling problem.
2:00:44
Speaker 1: That's going to do it. Peace. If the dark starts talking,
2:00:52
Speaker 1: hand me the phone. Let somebody answer, let somebody know.
2:00:58
Speaker 2: You do not have to lose this round alone. Hold on,
2:01:09
Speaker 2: hold on, not tonight. Not now. Hold on, hold on.
2:01:19
Speaker 2: Let me pull you out.
2:01:24
Speaker 1: That bad luck bites hard, but it don't get the crown.
2:01:31
Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on.
2:01:36
Speaker 1: Stay with me now.
2:01:41
Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on. You're still here now. You're still
2:01:52
Speaker 2: here now.