Latest / The Stan R. Mitchell Show / The 1-2-25 edition of The View from the Front podcast.

Transcript

The 1-2-25 edition of The View from the Front podcast. · The Stan R. Mitchell Show

0:00
SPEAKER_00: Hey guys, welcome to The View from the Front.
0:04
SPEAKER_00: What is going on everyone?
0:05
I hope everyone has had a great Christmas break and a good New
0:11
Year's Eve and New
0:12
Year's Day and that you're really looking forward to kicking
0:16
off 2025 with as much
0:18
SPEAKER_00: positivity and energy and optimism as possible.
0:23
SPEAKER_00: Really appreciate you guys joining us.
0:25
SPEAKER_00: As always, you will find timestamps in the episode notes.
0:30
SPEAKER_00: If you want to jump forward, you can do so.
0:32
SPEAKER_00: I've put those in there for that reason.
0:35
Also wanted to mention if you have a question or you want to
0:38
provide some feedback,
0:39
SPEAKER_00: don't forget you can record a voice memo on your phone,
0:42
SPEAKER_00: email it to me.
0:44
SPEAKER_00: Just make sure you add your name and city.
0:47
SPEAKER_00: I would love to share some of those.
0:50
SPEAKER_00: And I guess I should mention that email address.
0:52
SPEAKER_00: The email address is stanrmitchell2012 at gmail.com.
0:58
SPEAKER_00: Again, that's stanrmitchell2012 at gmail.com.
1:02
SPEAKER_00: I've got that in the episode notes as well.
1:05
So this episode we're going to have lots of news on things that
1:09
have happened in
1:10
SPEAKER_00: the past couple of weeks in Ukraine.
1:14
SPEAKER_00: I hope you enjoyed the interview that we put up last week.
1:17
I definitely learned some from that and I've heard some
1:19
feedback that you guys
1:20
SPEAKER_00: learned quite a bit about Russia.
1:23
It was really great having someone who has actually spent 20
1:27
years living there
1:28
SPEAKER_00: share their opinion.
1:30
So tonight we're going to have quite a few stories about
1:33
Ukraine and Russia.
1:35
SPEAKER_00: Again, about what's happened the past couple of weeks.
1:38
SPEAKER_00: Some of the stories are good.
1:40
SPEAKER_00: Some of them are not so good.
1:42
I'm going to mention a bit about the upcoming change in
1:44
administration in the
1:45
SPEAKER_00: United States as President Biden leaves office.
1:49
SPEAKER_00: as President Trump takes the oath again, retakes office.
1:53
SPEAKER_00: But I think it'll be a great show.
1:55
SPEAKER_00: And like I said, you've got time stamps.
1:59
SPEAKER_00: I need to learn to speak, I suppose, if you want to jump forward.
2:03
So with all of that out of the way,
2:05
let's just get straight into the news.
2:08
The first story that I wanted to get into this week was the
2:13
news that the United
2:14
SPEAKER_00: States has announced another $2.5 billion in military aid to Ukraine.
2:22
SPEAKER_00: This was part of the congressionally authorized announcement.
2:26
This military aid package that goes all the way back to April
2:30
of 2024 that Congress
2:32
SPEAKER_00: approved after,
2:33
SPEAKER_00: as you recall,
2:34
SPEAKER_00: a good five or six month delay where they couldn't get it passed.
2:38
SPEAKER_00: This is some of the final remaining amount of money that the U.S.
2:43
SPEAKER_00: has that it can send as a part of that deal that was passed.
2:49
SPEAKER_00: Again, the military part of it was $2.5 billion.
2:52
SPEAKER_00: And the military package includes air defense munitions,
2:56
SPEAKER_00: counter drone munitions,
2:59
SPEAKER_00: ammunition for those long range rockets,
3:02
SPEAKER_00: the high mobility artillery rocket systems or HIMARS.
3:07
SPEAKER_00: Also included some anti-tank weapons and artillery shells.
3:12
SPEAKER_00: That's according to the U.S.
3:14
government,
3:14
but they did not break those down into any kind of details that
3:17
I can report.
3:18
SPEAKER_00: That's just the generic statement that they shared.
3:22
SPEAKER_00: In a statement put out from the White House,
3:25
SPEAKER_00: President Joe Biden said that aid will,
3:28
SPEAKER_00: quote,
3:29
provide Ukraine with both an immediate influx of capabilities
3:33
that it continues to
3:34
SPEAKER_00: use to great effect on the battlefield,
3:37
SPEAKER_00: as well as longer term supplies of air defense,
3:40
SPEAKER_00: artillery and other critical weapons systems.
3:45
SPEAKER_00: Now,
3:45
SPEAKER_00: obviously,
3:45
SPEAKER_00: I've been doing this for a couple of years,
3:47
and I will say that this statement from the White House and the
3:51
Department of
3:52
SPEAKER_00: Defense was one of the more vague statements that they've put out,
3:56
SPEAKER_00: so they're not giving many details.
3:58
SPEAKER_00: And I suspect that's partly because this was the last one.
4:02
SPEAKER_00: President Joe Biden knows he will be out of office soon,
4:05
SPEAKER_00: and so it was just kind of like they just dialed it in.
4:07
Unless maybe they snuck in some stuff here that they don't want
4:12
Russia to know,
4:13
SPEAKER_00: which I hope is the case.
4:14
I'm not sure if that's the case,
4:15
but that's,
4:16
I guess,
4:17
a small possibility.
4:19
SPEAKER_00: For Ukraine,
4:19
SPEAKER_00: at least,
4:20
SPEAKER_00: the rubber will most certainly hit the road after January 20,
4:24
SPEAKER_00: when President Trump takes the oath and assumes office.
4:29
The real question will be at that time,
4:32
how much aid,
4:33
if any,
4:34
comes from the United States.
4:36
SPEAKER_00: Now, trying to put as positive a spin on it as possible, if...
4:43
The phone calls with Putin to try to end the war with Trump do
4:46
not go well.
4:48
One of Trump's top foreign policy advisors has suggested
4:51
sending additional aid to
4:53
SPEAKER_00: force Russia to come to the table.
4:57
SPEAKER_00: Putting the less positive spin on it, we all know that...
5:00
SPEAKER_00: In the past,
5:00
SPEAKER_00: at least,
5:01
SPEAKER_00: President Trump has been pretty,
5:04
SPEAKER_00: I guess I would say,
5:06
SPEAKER_00: soft on Vladimir Putin.
5:08
SPEAKER_00: He has taken Vladimir Putin's word over our intelligence agencies.
5:13
SPEAKER_00: He has rarely, if ever, criticized Russia.
5:17
SPEAKER_00: He actually praised the invasion as
5:20
SPEAKER_00: a smart move.
5:22
SPEAKER_00: So we will just have to see how it actually comes down.
5:27
SPEAKER_00: It's obviously easier to just make statements when you're not in charge,
5:31
SPEAKER_00: but in a few weeks he will be in charge.
5:33
And so I do know some of his advisors have said he does not
5:37
want to look weak and
5:39
that he will not want to have Russia kind of make him look like
5:44
a fool and
5:44
SPEAKER_00: So there is a chance that if Putin overplays his hand,
5:50
SPEAKER_00: that Trump might react very aggressively and increase aid.
5:55
SPEAKER_00: But again,
5:58
SPEAKER_00: no one really knows what will happen,
6:01
SPEAKER_00: and it will be a sort of play-it-by-ear situation,
6:05
SPEAKER_00: if I had to guess.
6:07
The second Ukraine story that I wanted to squeeze in this week
6:11
involves Syria.
6:13
Ukraine,
6:14
after the Syrian civil war,
6:18
ended up with the dictator Bashar al-Assad fleeing Russia.
6:23
Ukraine ended up reaching out to Syria and announced six days
6:29
ago that Ukraine,
6:31
SPEAKER_00: under the leadership of President Zelensky,
6:34
SPEAKER_00: would send 500 metric tons of wheat flour to Syria.
6:41
SPEAKER_00: It's already headed that way.
6:44
And obviously Syria has been dealing with all kinds of a
6:46
humanitarian crisis,
6:48
shortage of food.
6:50
SPEAKER_00: And so the one thing Ukraine has,
6:52
SPEAKER_00: it's often been called the breadbasket of the world,
6:54
SPEAKER_00: but they have just tons of wheat and grain.
6:59
SPEAKER_00: And so they're sending 500 metric tons.
7:02
SPEAKER_00: Well, since that announcement, something beautiful has happened.
7:07
SPEAKER_00: And it's something that reminds both Russia and the world,
7:11
SPEAKER_00: but especially Russia,
7:13
SPEAKER_00: that Ukraine has moves it can make as well,
7:16
SPEAKER_00: as I kind of termed it.
7:18
SPEAKER_00: Ukraine has now set up...
7:22
SPEAKER_00: This is just kind of crazy,
7:24
SPEAKER_00: but Ukraine has set up an honorary consulate inside Damascus,
7:32
SPEAKER_00: Syria.
7:33
SPEAKER_00: So,
7:34
SPEAKER_00: as Russia begins to move away from its ties with Syria,
7:42
SPEAKER_00: and what is now the new government,
7:44
SPEAKER_00: which has fought against Syria and Russian troops forever...
7:49
SPEAKER_00: As Russia is pulling back, Ukraine is moving in.
7:53
SPEAKER_00: And one of the things that Ukraine told the rebel commander,
7:57
SPEAKER_00: who's the temporary leader inside Syria,
8:02
SPEAKER_00: is that he would like to see Syria expel Russian forces inside of Syria,
8:10
and that he would like to see a strategic partnership formed
8:14
between Ukraine and Syria.
8:17
SPEAKER_00: I am sure none of that is great news for Vladimir Putin and Russia,
8:22
but it was certainly wonderful news to see for those of us who
8:26
are cheering on
8:28
SPEAKER_00: Ukraine and its valiant defense against the Russian invasion.
8:34
The third story I wanted to cover regarding Ukraine is not as
8:39
positive one.
8:40
This involves the northern part of their offensive operations
8:46
that actually went
8:47
SPEAKER_00: into Russia in the Kursk region.
8:50
SPEAKER_00: We've talked about that quite a bit.
8:53
Unfortunately,
8:54
there was a story in Voice of America which relied on an
8:59
Associated Press article
9:01
that discussed some of the serious challenges that are
9:04
beginning to emerge in that
9:07
SPEAKER_00: northern offensive front,
9:10
SPEAKER_00: which obviously was important.
9:12
SPEAKER_00: It reminded folks that Ukraine could win.
9:15
SPEAKER_00: It made Russia have to shift lots of its forces.
9:18
SPEAKER_00: It, you know, at least for a while, made Putin seem more vulnerable.
9:24
SPEAKER_00: And so the offensive was very effective.
9:29
SPEAKER_00: But that was five months ago.
9:31
SPEAKER_00: And this article in Voice of America talked about,
9:35
SPEAKER_00: they interviewed a number of,
9:37
SPEAKER_00: the AP did,
9:38
of frontline commanders and soldiers who spoke on the condition
9:42
of anonymity.
9:44
And they are reporting that it is increasingly a dire situation
9:50
for Ukraine in that Kursk area.
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SPEAKER_00: That Russia has now amassed more than 50,000 troops in that region.
9:59
SPEAKER_00: include some of them from or include North Koreans,
10:02
SPEAKER_00: which those are fresh troops,
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SPEAKER_00: so they're outnumbered.
10:08
SPEAKER_00: But the Ukrainians are now overstretched,
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SPEAKER_00: and Ukraine has already lost,
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SPEAKER_00: according to the Voice of America article and the Associated Press,
10:19
SPEAKER_00: 40% of the 980 square kilometers that they seized back in August.
10:25
SPEAKER_00: So they've lost almost half, 40%,
10:29
SPEAKER_00: So they've lost a lot of ground up there,
10:32
SPEAKER_00: and apparently the Russians are pressing in pretty aggressively.
10:37
SPEAKER_00: They did also mention that one soldier had said,
10:42
SPEAKER_00: the soldier was a major,
10:45
SPEAKER_00: actually quoted on the record,
10:47
SPEAKER_00: in the 95th Airborne Assault Brigade,
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SPEAKER_00: Stepan Lutsev said that,
10:53
SPEAKER_00: quote,
10:53
SPEAKER_00: we have,
10:54
SPEAKER_00: as they say,
10:55
SPEAKER_00: hit a hornet's nest.
10:56
SPEAKER_00: We have stirred up another hornet.
11:00
SPEAKER_00: And so,
11:00
some of the people who spoke off the record said that they
11:04
feared that this gamble,
11:06
SPEAKER_00: this incursion into Kursk in the northern part,
11:10
SPEAKER_00: going into the southern part of Russia,
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SPEAKER_00: could weaken the entire 1,000 kilometer front line of Ukraine,
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and thus cause Ukraine to not only end up losing the ground
11:22
they took in the north,
11:22
SPEAKER_00: but
11:23
SPEAKER_00: but also lose precious ground in the east and the Donbass region,
11:28
SPEAKER_00: which we've talked about in the past,
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SPEAKER_00: that that was the risk of this northern incursion.
11:34
SPEAKER_00: So,
11:35
SPEAKER_00: that article was obviously a little concerning,
11:38
SPEAKER_00: but what is interesting is that it,
11:42
SPEAKER_00: in many ways,
11:43
SPEAKER_00: also captures the success of that northern invasion.
11:48
SPEAKER_00: The Nonprofit Institute for the Study of War says,
11:52
SPEAKER_00: gave a 2024 end-of-year summary that they released on December 31st.
11:58
SPEAKER_00: And in that,
12:00
SPEAKER_00: the large summary,
12:02
SPEAKER_00: and I'll go through just a couple of points on it,
12:04
is that Russia is slowing down on its regaining of territory
12:11
inside Ukraine.
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SPEAKER_00: And so, the Institute for the Study of War said that for the year...
12:19
SPEAKER_00: Russia had gained 4,168 square kilometers.
12:21
So basically 4,200 square kilometers,
12:22
or for the Americans listening,
12:23
1,600 square miles.
12:33
SPEAKER_00: mostly comprised of fields and small settlements in Ukraine,
12:39
SPEAKER_00: and it was in ground that they retook into the Kursk,
12:43
SPEAKER_00: again,
12:43
SPEAKER_00: that I just mentioned.
12:44
SPEAKER_00: That's the part of Russia that was being retaken.
12:46
So they took 4,200 square kilometers or 1,600 square miles at a
12:50
cost of 420,000 casualties.
13:00
SPEAKER_00: 420,000 casualties, easily the most bloody year of the war for Russia.
13:05
So they're taking about 102 casualties per square kilometer of
13:12
Ukrainian territory seized.
13:14
SPEAKER_00: Reminder, Ukraine is a massive country.
13:18
So they're right now,
13:19
currently at least,
13:20
averaging about 102 casualties per square kilometer.
13:25
SPEAKER_00: There is a map that I've put in the episode notes if you want to see,
13:29
SPEAKER_00: as of the end of the year,
13:30
SPEAKER_00: how much territory Russia has inside Ukraine right now.
13:35
SPEAKER_00: You can see that.
13:35
It's mostly on the east,
13:37
and you can see what they have managed to gain in the past year.
13:45
SPEAKER_00: Now, in that loss of territory, there is some good news for Ukraine.
13:50
SPEAKER_00: First being that Russia lost, again, 420,000 casualties in a single year.
13:57
SPEAKER_00: That is just unsustainable.
13:59
SPEAKER_00: But the other bit of good news is that the Russian rate of advance has,
14:05
SPEAKER_00: throughout the latter part of the year,
14:08
SPEAKER_00: continued to decline.
14:10
SPEAKER_00: And so,
14:11
SPEAKER_00: as they've moved on more heavily defended settlements,
14:14
SPEAKER_00: such as,
14:15
SPEAKER_00: and we've talked about this place a lot,
14:17
SPEAKER_00: Pokrovsk,
14:19
SPEAKER_00: the Russian advance has slowed,
14:21
SPEAKER_00: the casualties have increased,
14:23
SPEAKER_00: and so the pressure on Ukraine is obviously high,
14:27
SPEAKER_00: but...
14:28
SPEAKER_00: The question that the Institute for the Study of War posed is,
14:33
would the Russian military command continue to tolerate these
14:38
record levels of
14:40
SPEAKER_00: casualties that Russia has suffered?
14:44
SPEAKER_00: from September to November of 2024.
14:47
SPEAKER_00: Would they pay that kind of cost for such small gains?
14:53
SPEAKER_00: That's the question.
14:55
SPEAKER_00: But as we've always said,
14:56
SPEAKER_00: with war,
14:58
you might fight really hard for a long time for a very small
15:02
amount of territory,
15:03
SPEAKER_00: and then if an enemy breaks,
15:05
SPEAKER_00: you can sprint forward and make it seem worth it.
15:09
You just never know which side is straining more because both
15:14
sides have been
15:15
SPEAKER_00: fighting very hard.
15:17
SPEAKER_00: And clearly,
15:17
SPEAKER_00: with a new administration coming in for the United States,
15:22
SPEAKER_00: if you're Ukraine,
15:22
SPEAKER_00: that has to make you a little nervous as to how that will plan out.
15:27
SPEAKER_00: And then also...
15:29
Will the support from Europe increase to cover any shortfalls
15:34
from the United States?
15:35
Those are the questions that I'm sure we'll be looking to
15:38
answer in the coming months of 2025.
15:43
SPEAKER_00: Moving along,
15:44
SPEAKER_00: I don't know if you saw the news,
15:46
but Finland seized a Russian ship after yet another undersea
15:52
power cable was cut.
15:55
SPEAKER_00: Now,
15:55
we have talked about these cut power cables and fiber optic
15:59
cables in the past few episodes.
16:03
SPEAKER_00: Russia has been increasing its ability to do so,
16:07
SPEAKER_00: and finally,
16:08
SPEAKER_00: the West has decided how they will handle the situation.
16:12
SPEAKER_00: In this case,
16:13
SPEAKER_00: Finland seized the Russian ship,
16:16
SPEAKER_00: which apparently had other spy equipment on it,
16:20
SPEAKER_00: but the Finnish authorities said,
16:23
SPEAKER_00: found that this ship had dragged its anchor for 60 miles.
16:30
SPEAKER_00: So there was a 60-mile-long anchor drag mark on the seafloor,
16:35
SPEAKER_00: and they are blaming this Russia-affiliated vessel.
16:40
SPEAKER_00: Now, this particular cable ran between Finland and Estonia.
16:46
And what is interesting is that this is part of what Russia has
16:52
been called
16:53
SPEAKER_00: Russia's shadow fleet.
16:56
SPEAKER_00: And it's called that because these ships,
16:58
SPEAKER_00: there's a number of them that have uncertain ownership.
17:01
And they've mainly been used to evade Western oil sanctions
17:08
that were imposed over
17:09
SPEAKER_00: the war in Ukraine.
17:10
Russia's been using these ships that have very gray ownership
17:15
in a series of ways
17:17
SPEAKER_00: to mostly transport oil,
17:21
SPEAKER_00: but lately they've been increasingly using them to cut power cables,
17:26
SPEAKER_00: to damage fiber optic lines.
17:29
And up to this point,
17:30
there really hasn't been much of a response from the West.
17:34
SPEAKER_00: The West and NATO has known that Russia is doing this,
17:39
but they basically haven't responded at all because these are
17:43
civilian ships.
17:45
In theory,
17:45
they are not tied to Russia,
17:48
even though investigative services...
17:52
SPEAKER_00: can sort of show a shadow trail to Russia,
17:56
SPEAKER_00: but because it's all very murky,
17:58
SPEAKER_00: NATO has been mostly frozen.
18:00
But I was ecstatic to see that Finland has seized that Russian
18:05
ship and its crew.
18:08
SPEAKER_00: And also Estonia is going to start launching naval patrols.
18:12
And I hope that this is the start of how the West can and will
18:17
respond in the future.
18:19
Because the area where this cable was damaged,
18:23
Russia has taken it to the next level.
18:25
SPEAKER_00: Because they didn't just cut it this time,
18:27
SPEAKER_00: they're cutting it in areas where it's even harder to repair.
18:30
SPEAKER_00: So in some ways,
18:31
Russia had stepped up what it had been doing and making it even
18:36
harder for the West
18:38
SPEAKER_00: to fix these cables,
18:39
SPEAKER_00: which are already very challenging to repair.
18:42
SPEAKER_00: They're very challenging to even find where the tear or the rip or,
18:48
SPEAKER_00: you know,
18:48
SPEAKER_00: broken connection is.
18:49
SPEAKER_00: That's hard enough.
18:50
And then once you find it,
18:52
it's very challenging to get underwater very deep and
18:57
SPEAKER_00: using submarines and get these cables repaired.
19:01
So I was ecstatic to see that Finland finally said enough of
19:05
this and they seized
19:06
that ship that was involved in this incident so that they can
19:10
further investigate
19:12
SPEAKER_00: what exactly happened,
19:13
SPEAKER_00: determine if it could have been an accident,
19:16
SPEAKER_00: which if you drag an anchor for 60 miles,
19:19
SPEAKER_00: it doesn't sound like much of an accident,
19:20
SPEAKER_00: but of course they'll have to confirm that and prove it and then
19:24
I suppose at that point they will decide what action to take
19:29
against both the
19:29
SPEAKER_00: vessel and those involved in the incident.
19:32
SPEAKER_00: If you have no idea what I'm talking about,
19:35
SPEAKER_00: maybe it's your first time listening,
19:37
SPEAKER_00: you just came across the show on Apple or Spotify and
19:41
I've got a couple of links in the episode notes about what to
19:46
know about these
19:47
SPEAKER_00: Russian shadow fleets,
19:48
SPEAKER_00: what they've been doing,
19:50
SPEAKER_00: etc.
19:51
You can learn way more about it by going to the episode notes
19:54
and reading on it.
19:55
SPEAKER_00: But I've covered this pretty heavily in previous episodes,
19:58
SPEAKER_00: so I don't want to dig too much more into it tonight.
20:02
SPEAKER_00: Moving along,
20:03
SPEAKER_00: this next story is one I'm super excited about,
20:06
just as a military nut who loves keeping up with warfare and
20:11
how things are changing.
20:13
And in this case,
20:14
I'm referring to the sea drones that Ukraine has been using.
20:20
As a bit of background,
20:22
if you have no idea what I'm talking about,
20:24
Ukraine has no navy.
20:26
SPEAKER_00: It was all sunk or taken or seized by Russia many years ago.
20:33
SPEAKER_00: And as the war has gone along for the past few years,
20:38
Ukraine has looked for ways to remove the stranglehold of the
20:43
Russian fleet in the
20:45
SPEAKER_00: Black Sea.
20:46
So initially,
20:47
they used some long-range anti-ship missiles to push back the
20:54
Russian fleet some.
20:55
SPEAKER_00: But once that was no longer enough,
20:58
SPEAKER_00: they turned to a new weapon that they pretty much on their own developed.
21:03
And these were unmanned boats controlled by radar or robots or
21:10
maybe human
21:10
SPEAKER_00: operators using cameras.
21:12
But regardless,
21:13
there were no personnel in these small boats which were filled
21:16
with explosives.
21:18
SPEAKER_00: And they called them sea drones.
21:20
SPEAKER_00: And they started using sea drones to attack Russia's ships.
21:26
SPEAKER_00: Now,
21:26
SPEAKER_00: as of March,
21:27
these sea drones had been so effective that at least five
21:32
Russian ships had been
21:34
SPEAKER_00: sunk as of March 2024,
21:37
SPEAKER_00: according to the BBC.
21:38
SPEAKER_00: And if you research this, you can find that...
21:42
SPEAKER_00: Some stories go as high as a dozen vessels.
21:45
SPEAKER_00: Now,
21:45
SPEAKER_00: some of these are much smaller ships or patrol boats,
21:48
SPEAKER_00: so it really just depends on how you're defining it.
21:52
But the attacks have been so successful that Russia had to pull
21:56
its fleet away from
21:58
SPEAKER_00: Ukraine and the occupied Crimean Peninsula,
22:01
SPEAKER_00: which had a great naval port that Russia was using.
22:06
SPEAKER_00: It used to be a Ukrainian port.
22:08
It was one of the main reasons Russia wanted to take Ukraine
22:13
was to get this very
22:15
SPEAKER_00: strategic port.
22:16
So these sea drones were so dangerous and had been so effective
22:20
that Russia had
22:21
SPEAKER_00: pulled its fleet back to Russian territory way further away.
22:26
SPEAKER_00: So these sea drones have been just very impressive.
22:30
SPEAKER_00: But,
22:30
SPEAKER_00: like anything in war,
22:32
SPEAKER_00: as Russia tried to figure out how to deal with them,
22:35
SPEAKER_00: one of the things the Russians learned was these sea drones sit very low.
22:41
SPEAKER_00: They're kind of like high-speed boats.
22:43
But Ukraine had spent so much time finding ways to improve them
22:48
that they even
22:49
found a way to partially flood them so that they were very
22:53
low-profile as they
22:54
SPEAKER_00: approached the ship.
22:56
SPEAKER_00: They would allow water in.
22:57
I'm sure they had a bilge pump in them so that they would sink
23:00
set very low,
23:02
SPEAKER_00: not quite like a submarine,
23:03
SPEAKER_00: but pretty low,
23:04
SPEAKER_00: very high speed.
23:06
And that gave the Russians very little time as they closed for
23:11
the Russians to use
23:13
SPEAKER_00: machine guns to destroy these drones.
23:16
So the Russians clearly had a big problem trying to figure out
23:20
how do you stop
23:21
SPEAKER_00: these high-speed,
23:23
shallow-running speedboats that have no personnel so no one's
23:27
going to flinch or
23:29
SPEAKER_00: show a lack of courage and turn away at the last second.
23:32
SPEAKER_00: These are literally unmanned, basically, suicide drones.
23:37
SPEAKER_00: And the Russians had to figure out how do we deal with this.
23:40
SPEAKER_00: Well, they came up with a great counter.
23:44
They had been using Russian helicopters to patrol around the
23:49
remaining Russian ships.
23:52
And these helicopters would see the wake of these high-speed
23:57
boats from miles and
23:59
SPEAKER_00: miles away from the ships.
24:00
And then the helicopters would,
24:02
usually Russian Heinz or some of their other transport ships,
24:07
helicopters would very easily move toward them or very quickly
24:12
I should say and
24:13
then with machine guns they would engage them the boats and
24:17
very easily just blow
24:18
up the boats at great distance from Russian ships so the drones
24:23
became less of an
24:25
SPEAKER_00: effective weapon
24:27
So Ukraine had to figure out,
24:28
well,
24:28
what do we do about this new threat to our drones?
24:33
SPEAKER_00: Because we clearly still want to hit some of these Russian ships.
24:37
SPEAKER_00: And also,
24:39
Ukraine wants to perhaps use them to help take down that bridge
24:43
we've talked about
24:44
SPEAKER_00: so much,
24:44
SPEAKER_00: which Russia uses to supply the Crimean Peninsula.
24:51
SPEAKER_00: So Ukraine had been looking for a counter,
24:54
SPEAKER_00: and I believe I mentioned this in a previous podcast.
24:57
If I didn't,
24:58
then I had saved it and it got cut,
25:00
and I just didn't get it squeezed in.
25:02
SPEAKER_00: But Ukraine began testing putting anti-air missiles on these drones.
25:09
SPEAKER_00: Literally, Ukraine found a way to take a Russian...
25:14
SPEAKER_00: Air-to-air missile called the R-73, which are normally on MiG-29s.
25:19
Ukraine had them because Ukraine had obviously MiGs and Russian equipment.
25:23
SPEAKER_00: It used to be a Soviet client state.
25:26
SPEAKER_00: And so they had these anti-air missiles.
25:29
And they had been experimenting with,
25:32
hey,
25:32
let's put these missiles on drones.
25:34
SPEAKER_00: And there had been some,
25:36
I guess you'd say rumors or some talk on social media that they
25:40
had figured out how
25:42
SPEAKER_00: to launch.
25:43
SPEAKER_00: And these are very large missiles.
25:45
SPEAKER_00: I've got a video of one in the episode notes.
25:48
I almost want you to go see because it's not like this is a
25:50
small little stinger
25:52
SPEAKER_00: missile that's like the size of your...
25:55
You know,
25:55
you're just a few fingers and it's maybe,
25:58
you know,
25:58
50 pounds or something.
25:59
SPEAKER_00: These are massive missiles.
26:02
SPEAKER_00: And so if you get a second, go to the episode notes and take a look.
26:06
SPEAKER_00: Ukraine tested them and there had been talk,
26:09
SPEAKER_00: like I said,
26:09
SPEAKER_00: on social media among some analysts that they had figured out how to use,
26:14
SPEAKER_00: how to get these missiles on a C-drone.
26:18
SPEAKER_00: And so what happened the past week?
26:20
SPEAKER_00: Well, there is video of sea drones shooting down Russian helicopters.
26:27
SPEAKER_00: Again, the sea drones went to attack.
26:30
SPEAKER_00: Russian helicopters flew out to engage these sea drones,
26:33
SPEAKER_00: probably thinking it was going to be an easy day.
26:36
SPEAKER_00: Just take some machine guns and shoot at these sea drones.
26:39
SPEAKER_00: Never been risky for Russia in the past.
26:42
SPEAKER_00: And this time Russia got a very unpleasant surprise.
26:47
SPEAKER_00: At least one helicopter shot down.
26:49
SPEAKER_00: A second one damaged at a minimum.
26:53
Some Russian telegram channels report that that second
26:57
helicopter was shot down as well.
27:00
SPEAKER_00: So this was a historic first.
27:02
SPEAKER_00: Sea drones.
27:03
Basically,
27:04
you know,
27:05
naval floating robotic looking ships controlled by humans.
27:10
non-manned,
27:12
unmanned,
27:12
ever how you want to say it,
27:14
shot down very expensive helicopters.
27:17
SPEAKER_00: So,
27:17
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
27:18
SPEAKER_00: if you look at these ships,
27:19
SPEAKER_00: they basically are like...
27:21
SPEAKER_00: These little sea drones are basically...
27:23
They look like bass boats that have high-speed bass boats that
27:27
have had a cover put
27:29
SPEAKER_00: over them.
27:30
SPEAKER_00: And then, of course, now they're adding these missiles to them.
27:32
But this is an increasingly deadly weapon because if you can't
27:36
engage them by helicopters...
27:38
SPEAKER_00: then they're going to get close to ships.
27:40
And then you've got to count on your Russian machine gunners on
27:43
the side of a ship
27:44
that's moving up and down and moving at some speed itself to
27:48
try to engage these
27:49
SPEAKER_00: high-speed boats.
27:51
SPEAKER_00: And oh, by the way, there's never just one.
27:53
SPEAKER_00: They come in large groups.
27:56
SPEAKER_00: So they're going to hit one side of the ship.
27:57
SPEAKER_00: You can't have all the weapons on just one side.
27:59
SPEAKER_00: Your weapons are already split to both sides.
28:02
SPEAKER_00: They're coming at very high speed.
28:04
SPEAKER_00: They're pretty hard to hit.
28:06
And now the best Russian counter that Russia has had developed
28:10
is now something that,
28:12
SPEAKER_00: in the future,
28:13
SPEAKER_00: every time any of those helicopters,
28:15
SPEAKER_00: assuming Russia even tries to send out its very valuable,
28:19
SPEAKER_00: very expensive helicopters to intercept these sea drones...
28:23
SPEAKER_00: Every pilot and every crew member from here on out is going to worry,
28:27
SPEAKER_00: does that C-Dron have anti-air missiles on it?
28:31
SPEAKER_00: Again, I have in the episode notes a video of that engagement.
28:36
I have another video that shows how large these missiles are
28:40
that literally shows a
28:43
SPEAKER_00: MiG-29 with one of these R-73 short-range heat-sinking missiles.
28:49
SPEAKER_00: It's almost worth seeing how big this thing is.
28:52
SPEAKER_00: It's like the size of a person.
28:53
SPEAKER_00: They're big.
28:55
And it would be terrifying to imagine being a Russian
28:58
helicopter pilot being told,
29:01
SPEAKER_00: fly out there and look for sea drones,
29:04
because this is a serious threat if you're in a slow-moving
29:08
helicopter and these
29:10
SPEAKER_00: sea drones are potentially armed now.
29:13
I also put a link in that if you're not aware of how the sea
29:17
drones have helped
29:19
SPEAKER_00: change warfare in the Black Sea,
29:22
SPEAKER_00: I've got a link there.
29:23
SPEAKER_00: If you're a new listener, you can check that out.
29:25
SPEAKER_00: But I've talked about them quite a bit in the past,
29:27
SPEAKER_00: so I don't want to spend much more time on them.
29:30
One other tech story that I want to squeeze in before we move
29:33
away from that,
29:34
Ukraine has now begun arming some of its drones with shotguns
29:39
to take down Russian drones.
29:41
SPEAKER_00: Now,
29:42
SPEAKER_00: if you've been listening for a while,
29:43
you know we've discussed in the past that Ukraine had been
29:48
using some of its drones
29:49
SPEAKER_00: to basically just,
29:51
SPEAKER_00: you know,
29:52
SPEAKER_00: run into Russian drones,
29:54
SPEAKER_00: basically take down a cheap drone of Ukraine's,
29:57
SPEAKER_00: run it into a more expensive one of Russia's,
29:59
SPEAKER_00: So it was a kind of one-to-one ratio.
30:01
SPEAKER_00: But that obviously gets expensive after a while.
30:04
SPEAKER_00: So Ukraine has moved to another level.
30:09
SPEAKER_00: And I should say,
30:10
I forgot to mention that Ukraine also had a few drones where
30:14
troops on the front
30:15
SPEAKER_00: line had just attached longer sticks.
30:18
SPEAKER_00: And these drones would approach Russian drones,
30:21
SPEAKER_00: try to get close enough to place this,
30:24
SPEAKER_00: literally,
30:24
SPEAKER_00: a wooden stick or a branch inside.
30:27
into the Russian propeller blaze,
30:30
and they downed a few drones like that.
30:32
SPEAKER_00: Obviously,
30:33
SPEAKER_00: that was very difficult,
30:34
SPEAKER_00: not really effective,
30:36
because you're trying to fly a drone with a long stick that's
30:39
not very agile,
30:41
and then the Russian operators would see that a Ukrainian drone
30:44
was coming with a
30:45
SPEAKER_00: long stick,
30:46
SPEAKER_00: so they would run from it.
30:47
SPEAKER_00: Well, fast forward, and I've got a video of this in the episode notes.
30:52
SPEAKER_00: Ukraine has now armed some of its drones with shotguns.
30:56
SPEAKER_00: And these things go out, and they've got a little sight on them.
30:59
SPEAKER_00: You can watch the video in the episode notes.
31:01
SPEAKER_00: They go toward the Russian drone, and then they fire this shotgun.
31:07
That appears to be at least a semi-auto shotgun that fires off
31:11
obviously buckshot
31:12
SPEAKER_00: or some kind of spreading type munition.
31:15
And they successfully downed at least one Russian drone you can
31:19
see in the video.
31:21
But it's just crazy how far drone warfare has come from just a
31:26
drone dropping
31:27
grenades to drones more accurately dropping mortar rounds and
31:31
sometimes even
31:32
SPEAKER_00: anti-tank mines.
31:34
to these first person view FPV is what they call them suicide
31:39
drones where they
31:40
basically put explosives on them and then they either they have
31:44
smaller ones that
31:45
go after infantry that are very cheap they have larger ones
31:49
with lots of explosives
31:51
that go after tanks and then Russia and Ukraine has been
31:54
increasingly putting
31:55
netting and screen to try to protect against those but drone
31:59
warfare has come so
32:00
SPEAKER_00: far in this war and and
32:04
Just seeing this now-armed drone that goes out to shoot down
32:08
other drones,
32:08
it's just impressive what the Ukrainians have been able to
32:13
cobble together on a top
32:15
budget under the most desperate of situations from this very
32:19
large invasion from
32:20
SPEAKER_00: Russia that threatens the very existence of Ukraine.
32:24
The spirit and the tenacity and the ingenuity of the Ukrainian
32:28
people is just
32:29
SPEAKER_00: something that I have just...
32:31
I have been in awe of for the past two,
32:34
three years since we started covering this war.
32:37
Before we wrap up the news part,
32:39
let me end with one final good little positive news story.
32:43
SPEAKER_00: Ukraine has announced that it had another prisoner exchange.
32:48
SPEAKER_00: And in the year 2024, so this past year, they had 11 prisoner exchanges.
32:54
SPEAKER_00: And they have brought back 1,358 people.
32:56
SPEAKER_00: So almost 1,400 prisoners left.
33:02
SPEAKER_00: Most of them were soldiers,
33:03
SPEAKER_00: some of them were Ukrainian citizens,
33:05
SPEAKER_00: but brought back almost 1,400 people from Russian captivity,
33:09
SPEAKER_00: which is,
33:10
SPEAKER_00: I'm sure,
33:10
SPEAKER_00: just incredible for those folks,
33:13
SPEAKER_00: many of whom were being tortured,
33:15
SPEAKER_00: many of them were malnourished,
33:18
SPEAKER_00: not being fed very well,
33:19
SPEAKER_00: some of them being just horrifically tortured,
33:24
SPEAKER_00: assaulted,
33:25
SPEAKER_00: some of them raped,
33:27
SPEAKER_00: very terrible what they went through,
33:28
SPEAKER_00: but the good news is...
33:32
Almost 1,400 were released from Russian captivity in trades and
33:38
are now back inside Ukraine.
33:40
So I am so thankful that those folks had their fortunes changed
33:48
and that all the
33:49
SPEAKER_00: horrors they have endured are now over.
33:52
and that they are now back in the homeland that they love that
33:55
they have fought so
33:57
hard for since i will note one other number since the
34:01
full-scale invasion began
34:04
SPEAKER_00: almost four thousand people have been traded for
34:09
SPEAKER_00: Obviously,
34:09
SPEAKER_00: you never want to surrender,
34:11
SPEAKER_00: and if you're trying to fight the Russians,
34:13
SPEAKER_00: given how they're going to treat you,
34:14
SPEAKER_00: but great news for those who have,
34:17
SPEAKER_00: or had no choice but to,
34:18
SPEAKER_00: and have been released.
34:20
SPEAKER_00: I am sure that is great news,
34:23
and a great way for them to start the year as they try to get
34:26
past the trauma and
34:28
SPEAKER_00: all the terrible things that they've endured.
34:32
SPEAKER_00: Alright, I appreciate everyone hanging with me tonight.
34:34
Let me end the show by sharing some encouragement from my
34:37
Christian brothers and
34:38
SPEAKER_00: sisters out there.
34:39
SPEAKER_00: Now,
34:40
SPEAKER_00: if by chance you're dealing with depression,
34:44
SPEAKER_00: PTSD,
34:44
SPEAKER_00: or thoughts of suicide,
34:46
SPEAKER_00: I have a link I would love for you to check out.
34:49
SPEAKER_00: In fact, it's an entire page long.
34:51
SPEAKER_00: It's a pep talk, if you will, that I believe will help you.
34:53
SPEAKER_00: I've got that link in the episode notes,
34:55
SPEAKER_00: and I just ask if you're someone who's struggling with negative thoughts,
35:01
SPEAKER_00: You're just not where you need to be.
35:04
SPEAKER_00: Please take a look at this link.
35:07
SPEAKER_00: I think it will help you.
35:08
I used to read it every single episode,
35:11
but it just makes the show too long.
35:13
SPEAKER_00: But again, please take a look at it.
35:16
SPEAKER_00: It's got some resources on it.
35:17
SPEAKER_00: It's a great thing that I think will help you.
35:20
SPEAKER_00: I've been told by people that it helps them, so take a look at it.
35:24
SPEAKER_00: But back to where I was going to go.
35:26
SPEAKER_00: For my Christian brothers and sisters out there,
35:29
SPEAKER_00: I wanted to just share some verses,
35:31
SPEAKER_00: some encouragement,
35:32
SPEAKER_00: if you will.
35:33
SPEAKER_00: First comes from the book of Proverbs.
35:37
SPEAKER_00: It's chapter 3, verse 3 and 4.
35:41
SPEAKER_00: Let not steadfast love and faithfulness forsake you.
35:47
SPEAKER_00: Write them on the tablet of your heart.
35:51
SPEAKER_00: so you will find favor and good success in the sight of God and man.
35:58
SPEAKER_00: Again, let not steadfast love and faithfulness forsake you.
36:02
SPEAKER_00: Write them on the tablet of your heart,
36:05
SPEAKER_00: so you will find favor and good success in the sight of God and man.
36:12
SPEAKER_00: Let's go to Psalms 37, verse 18.
36:16
SPEAKER_00: Day by day,
36:17
SPEAKER_00: the Lord takes care of the innocent,
36:20
SPEAKER_00: and they will receive a reward that lasts forever.
36:25
SPEAKER_00: Again,
36:25
SPEAKER_00: that one was day by day,
36:27
SPEAKER_00: the Lord takes care of the innocent,
36:29
SPEAKER_00: and they will receive a reward that lasts forever.
36:34
SPEAKER_00: Moving along, let's go to Psalms 20, verse 4.
36:38
SPEAKER_00: Again, may God give you the desire of your heart.
36:49
SPEAKER_00: And make all your plans succeed.
36:53
SPEAKER_00: And then finally we'll jump to James chapter 1 verse 17.
36:58
Every good gift and every perfect gift is from above and comes
37:04
down from the Father
37:06
SPEAKER_00: of lights,
37:07
SPEAKER_00: with whom there is no variation or shadow of turning.
37:13
SPEAKER_00: Again,
37:13
every good gift and every perfect gift is from above and comes
37:16
down from the Father
37:18
SPEAKER_00: of lots,
37:19
SPEAKER_00: with whom there is no variation or shadow of turning.
37:24
SPEAKER_00: All right, guys, thanks again for joining us.
37:26
SPEAKER_00: If you love what I'm doing here,
37:27
SPEAKER_00: you've been listening for a while,
37:29
SPEAKER_00: want to help support,
37:30
SPEAKER_00: there's several ways to do so,
37:32
SPEAKER_00: including through Venmo,
37:34
SPEAKER_00: PayPal,
37:35
SPEAKER_00: Patreon,
37:36
SPEAKER_00: Substack.
37:37
SPEAKER_00: I got details for all of those in the episode notes.
37:41
Great ways to help support the show with the Substack Patreon,
37:45
a couple others.
37:46
You can do it for as little as $5 per month,
37:48
or you can do a one-time thing through Venmo.com.
37:51
another great way to support the show is to tell folks about my
37:55
books if you're not
37:56
a reader or if you're a reader check them out i've written 12
37:59
of them i typically
38:01
tell folks that these are tom clancy like books they are
38:05
military and police
38:06
thrillers they move fast they have lots of twists and turns
38:09
that you don't see
38:10
SPEAKER_00: coming
38:11
And I honestly feel like my writing skills are a gift from God
38:16
and most people enjoy them.
38:17
SPEAKER_00: So check out the books.
38:20
SPEAKER_00: I got a link to that in the episode notes,
38:22
SPEAKER_00: or you can just look on Amazon with my name,
38:24
SPEAKER_00: Stan R.
38:25
SPEAKER_00: Mitchell.
38:26
SPEAKER_00: Again,
38:27
SPEAKER_00: If you want to reach out,
38:28
SPEAKER_00: provide some feedback,
38:30
SPEAKER_00: you can record a voice memo in your phone,
38:33
SPEAKER_00: email it.
38:34
SPEAKER_00: Please make sure you add your name and city.
38:36
SPEAKER_00: You can send that to stanrmitchell2012 at gmail.com.
38:42
SPEAKER_00: Again, stanrmitchell2012 at gmail.com.
38:47
SPEAKER_00: Again,
38:47
please include your first name and your city or your full name
38:51
if you want to get a
38:51
SPEAKER_00: little famous.
38:52
SPEAKER_00: And with that, I am out of here.
38:53
I hope to catch you guys at the same time and at the same place
38:57
next week,
38:58
Lord willing.