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Michigan Feud Erupts Over Stevens · Balance of Power

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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts.
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  Speaker 2: Radio.
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  Speaker 3: News.
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  Speaker 4: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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  Speaker 4: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch
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  Speaker 4: us live on YouTube.
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  Speaker 5: Iran's supreme leader granting authority to continue talks and reports
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  Speaker 5: yesterday that Trump is looking to continue to pursue diplomacy
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  Speaker 5: rather than a resumption to kinetic activity just after the.
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  Speaker 6: Midterms are over.
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  Speaker 5: We, of course, thought Wednesday morning we might be waking
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  Speaker 5: up to news that the U.S. had gone back in
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  Speaker 5: when it comes to Iran. I don't know if we
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  Speaker 5: can expect President Trump to talk about the geopolitical situation
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  Speaker 5: when he takes the podium outside the Lincoln Memorial, or
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  Speaker 5: if he's mostly going to focus on domestic politics on
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  Speaker 5: this eve of the midterm elections and perhaps throw a
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  Speaker 5: little bit of gloating in there too on his brand
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  Speaker 5: new reflecting pool.
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  Speaker 6: American flag blue.
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  Speaker 1: You've been down there. I have.
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  Speaker 7: It's been a tortured experience. Of course, it got to
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  Speaker 7: the point where the contractor that got the no-bid job
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  Speaker 7: had to actually confess that, well, it was rushed installation
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  Speaker 7: that really created the issues with the liner and the
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  Speaker 7: algae and all the rest of it, even though there
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  Speaker 7: was an indictment at one point. We'll see what the
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  Speaker 7: president has to say about it now. They just refilled
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  Speaker 7: it in the last couple of days. It's really more
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  Speaker 7: a question of what he's going to say, though. Will
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  Speaker 7: this be an obsession over renovations and remodeling, or will
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  Speaker 7: there be some helpful changes? rhetoric for Republican candidates who
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  Speaker 7: are also making their closing arguments today. And that's where
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  Speaker 7: we start with Josh Wingrove, Bloomberg's White House correspondent, senior
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  Speaker 7: White House correspondent, joins us live from the White House
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  Speaker 7: right now.
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  Speaker 1: Josh, is this a speech? Is it a rally? Is
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  Speaker 1: it a stand-up routine?
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  Speaker 2: I mean, has there been a line between those three
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  Speaker 2: in the last several months of this administration? I would
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  Speaker 2: expect to hear many of the same things we've heard
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  Speaker 2: on the campaign trail, including yesterday with his final two campaigns.
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  Speaker 2: But I think I would just start by saying the
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  Speaker 2: fact that I and he are here at this building
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  Speaker 2: today is really unusual. Trump usually spends the last day
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  Speaker 2: of election campaigns blitzing as many places as he can
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  Speaker 2: go in person for rallies. And, of course, has chosen
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  Speaker 2: not to do that, instead doing this speech in a
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  Speaker 2: series of tele-rallies I think that obviously portends some expectations
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  Speaker 2: for them here and sort of what the polls are showing.
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  Speaker 2: There have also been persistent questions about whether the president
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  Speaker 2: is you know, wanted by Republican candidates in certain ridings,
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  Speaker 2: or excuse me, Canadian coming out, certain districts, you forgive me,
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  Speaker 2: you know, where he might be more of a drag
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  Speaker 2: on someone trying to win in a battleground district. We
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  Speaker 2: see him targeting those places, safer parts of the states.
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  Speaker 2: And so, you know, I think the fact that he's
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  Speaker 2: not on the road itself is a signal, and they've
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  Speaker 2: just gotten just a wave of bad polls, bad forecasts,
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  Speaker 2: ratings changes that kind of just all spell bad news
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  Speaker 2: for Republicans heading into tomorrow. The big question is, like,
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  Speaker 2: it's going to be a bad day for either the
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  Speaker 2: Republican Party or all these polls are wrong, and it's
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  Speaker 2: going to be a bad day for pollsters and people
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  Speaker 2: that put a lot of eggs in that basket. Mm-hmm.
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  Speaker 6: Well, that's a very good point.
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  Speaker 5: And your point is well taken, Josh, that it's unusual
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  Speaker 5: that the president is spending this day in Washington. Joe
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  Speaker 5: and I have been talking about whether he might want
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  Speaker 5: to be staying at the White House so he has
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  Speaker 5: access to the Situation Room in case he does make
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  Speaker 5: the decision to resume kinetic action against Iran. Obviously, we
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  Speaker 5: have reporting that kind of counters that idea in the
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  Speaker 5: last 24 hours. And the oil market clearly is betting
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  Speaker 5: on the diplomatic path being.
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  Speaker 6: Pursued for now.
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  Speaker 5: Is that what this White House, this president seems to
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  Speaker 5: want for the time being?
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  Speaker 2: They've given no indication that that is the reason for it.
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  Speaker 2: I suppose, you know, time will tell, obviously. But more broadly,
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  Speaker 2: I think he's held open the door, but really stayed
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  Speaker 2: ambiguous on the timing. So in other words, after the
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  Speaker 2: election could mean Wednesday or a week or weeks down
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  Speaker 2: the road. We just don't know. Trump likes that sort
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  Speaker 2: of what he would see as strategic ambiguity. So we
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  Speaker 2: don't know. The White House has not sent signals and
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  Speaker 2: there's been no really substantive reporting for when he'll pivot
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  Speaker 2: to that.
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  Speaker 1: Of course, He might.
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  Speaker 8: Right.
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  Speaker 2: And the question, I think, is what that impact is,
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  Speaker 2: of course, on the conflict, on the price of oil,
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  Speaker 2: also on J.D.
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  Speaker 8: Vance.
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  Speaker 2: I think that's another thing to mention here. Vice President
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  Speaker 2: Vance is on the road today in both in New York,
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  Speaker 2: 21st District. At least a fan of district playing playing
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  Speaker 2: defense up there and then going to his home state
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  Speaker 2: of Ohio. And, you know, Vance, this is shaping up
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  Speaker 2: to be a pretty thorny week for him with both
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  Speaker 2: the Ohio gubernatorial and Senate races looking not so great
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  Speaker 2: for Republicans in his home state. That Senate is a
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  Speaker 2: two year stub of his own.
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  Speaker 9: Term, of course.
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  Speaker 2: And then more broadly, you know, if voters rebuke the president,
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  Speaker 2: the vice president is going to be increasingly tied to
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  Speaker 2: him and be in a tricky position if and when
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  Speaker 2: he launches his own 2028 campaign. And so we do
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  Speaker 2: have one, you know, member of the administration hitting the
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  Speaker 2: road today for those campaigns. But I think it's going
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  Speaker 2: to be very interesting to watch how he messages around
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  Speaker 2: the next couple of days, particularly if these polls are
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  Speaker 2: borne out and things go poorly tomorrow for Republicans.
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  Speaker 6: Yep, 2028, just around the corner.
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  Speaker 5: Josh Wingrove, White House correspondent live from the North Lawn
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  Speaker 5: for us today. Josh, thank you so much. And as
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  Speaker 5: we think about the war with Iran, which of course
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  Speaker 5: is not just about the U.S., but Israel's involvement too,
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  Speaker 5: Israel has proven to be a fissure within the Democratic
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  Speaker 5: Party specifically, and that was on display in the primary
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  Speaker 5: for the Senate seat in Michigan. And it's now further
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  Speaker 5: on display as one of those primary candidates, Congresswoman Haley
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  Speaker 5: Stevens said, goes against her party to now endorse the
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  Speaker 5: Republican in the race, Mike Rogers, over her primary opponent,
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  Speaker 5: Abdul El-Sayed, who, of course, is the Democratic nominee in Michigan.
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  Speaker 5: It was a shock move that she announced yesterday after
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  Speaker 5: attending a church service with Mike Rogers. Listen.
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  Speaker 6: My name's Haley Stevens.
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  Speaker 10: I'm a proud Democrat, and.
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  Speaker 3: I am endorsing Mike Rogers for the United States Senate.
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  Speaker 10: 90% of the votes I'm going to cast are going
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  Speaker 10: to be for Democrats.
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  Speaker 9: My vote for Senate, I am just one vote, as
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  Speaker 9: is every Michigander.
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  Speaker 6: My vote for.
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  Speaker 9: Senate is going to be with Mike Rogers, and I will.
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  Speaker 1: Tell you why.
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  Speaker 6: Because we have to stand with country.
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  Speaker 5: And we're very lucky to have Bloomberg host of The Close,
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  Speaker 5: Romaine Bostic, live on the ground in Detroit for us
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  Speaker 5: this week. Romaine, what a time to be in Michigan.
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  Speaker 5: What has the reaction there been to the shock move
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  Speaker 5: from Stevens?
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  Speaker 11: Well, as you can imagine, Kelly, it has been all
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  Speaker 11: the talk over the last few hours. That surprise move
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  Speaker 11: by Stevens to throw her support behind Mike Rogers. And
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  Speaker 11: we should point out there is a lot of theatrics
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  Speaker 11: involved in terms of the location of where it took place.
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  Speaker 11: a location that some people thought might actually be maybe
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  Speaker 11: a little bit of a way for, well, I guess,
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  Speaker 11: El-Sayed and Stevens to bury the hatchet. Instead, we got
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  Speaker 11: just the exact reaction. And now it's raising a lot
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  Speaker 11: of questions as to actually, does it actually change the
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  Speaker 11: complexion of this race going into tomorrow? There has been
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  Speaker 11: early voting, but only about 30 percent of the electorate
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  Speaker 11: has cast their ballot, which means there are a lot
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  Speaker 11: of people that are going to be going to the
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  Speaker 11: polls tomorrow morning with this fresh on their mind and
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  Speaker 11: making a decision about not just whether they're voting for
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  Speaker 11: El-Sayed or Rodgers, but whether this is actually a referendum
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  Speaker 11: on some of these national and international issues or whether
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  Speaker 11: they're going to be voting on some of the more,
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  Speaker 11: I guess, pocketbook and kitchen table issues like affordability and inflation.
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  Speaker 1: Romain, it's great to see you.
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  Speaker 7: You know, you wonder if that question might have been
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  Speaker 7: answered yesterday as El-Sayed's Senate campaign says it raised 2.4
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  Speaker 7: percent million on Sunday, its biggest single fundraising day so
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  Speaker 7: far after Haley Stevens delivered that endorsement and went to
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  Speaker 7: church with Mike Rogers.
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  Speaker 1: What do you do with $ 2. 5 million with one day
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  Speaker 1: to go?
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  Speaker 11: Well, it's kind of interesting. I'm not sure there's anything
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  Speaker 11: more to do right now. And we spoke with a
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  Speaker 11: couple of voters this morning, and one was very clear.
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  Speaker 11: I mean, she said to us right now that her
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  Speaker 11: concerns are basically what's affecting Michiganders and not necessarily what's
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  Speaker 11: happening in other parts of the world. And that was
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  Speaker 11: a direct reference to Haley Stevens and the reason why
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  Speaker 11: she said that she threw her support behind Rogers. As
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  Speaker 11: of right now, if you believe the polls, El-Sayed is leading,
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  Speaker 11: but not by much.
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  Speaker 1: And it's always a big.
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  Speaker 11: Caveat you have to sort of add here that a
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  Speaker 11: lot of these polls, of course, don't always capture exactly
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  Speaker 11: what people are going to do once they get behind
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  Speaker 11: closed doors.
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  Speaker 8: But this is a big race here.
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  Speaker 11: And we should point out, too, Joe, when we were
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  Speaker 11: talking to people, they were not only making it clear
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  Speaker 11: how much the Senate race meant for to their own
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  Speaker 11: local concerns, but also how a lot of the other
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  Speaker 11: House races could have an impact as well. There's a
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  Speaker 11: lot of referendums, if you will, on the ballot, whether
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  Speaker 11: it's about the president, whether it's about what's going on
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  Speaker 11: in the Middle East, or whether it's about some of
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  Speaker 11: the more local issues right here at home.
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  Speaker 7: Bloomberg's Romain Bostic in the critical state of Michigan.
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  Speaker 1: Romain, thank you.
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  Speaker 7: He's going to be posted up in Michigan, in Detroit,
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  Speaker 7: for the balance of our coverage, and we'll play a
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  Speaker 7: big role in our coverage tomorrow evening here, special coverage
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  Speaker 7: beginning at 7 p.m.
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  Speaker 1: Eastern time.
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  Speaker 7: You know who else will be part of that is
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  Speaker 7: Bloomberg politics contributor Patrick McHenry, the former Republican congressman, former
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  Speaker 7: Speaker Pro Tem was with us right now.
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  Speaker 1: We're looking forward to getting you up here. Mr.
• 9:16
  Speaker 7: Chairman, and it's great to have you back. Before we
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  Speaker 7: get into states and polls, I'm just wondering your thoughts
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  Speaker 7: on this, whether you've seen a decision to self-destruct one's
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  Speaker 7: own political career on this level, but more importantly, will
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  Speaker 7: it actually impact decisions at the voting booth?
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  Speaker 12: Well, look, in 2024, Michigan, only about 40% of the
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  Speaker 12: electorate voted on election day. So if 2024 is similar
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  Speaker 12: to this election, you'll see a majority of votes being
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  Speaker 12: cast before election day of the state of Michigan. So
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  Speaker 12: this late-breaking endorsement of Haley Stevens, who nearly lost the
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  Speaker 12: Democratic primary, of Mike Rogers, the Republican.
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  Speaker 10: Nominee, is a significant thing.
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  Speaker 12: That might also be a vibes thing rather than a
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  Speaker 12: votes thing. But what we do know is the election
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  Speaker 12: year is close. It's within the margin of error. But
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  Speaker 12: all those polls indicate that That's Mr. Al-Sayed, who will
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  Speaker 12: be the beneficiary of the electorate.
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  Speaker 10: He's likely to win, but with a margin of error
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  Speaker 10: right now.
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  Speaker 12: So all of these little moves before Election Day, all
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  Speaker 12: the phone calls the president's making, all those things are
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  Speaker 12: about shifting the electorate in these ways that could have
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  Speaker 12: an impact in very tight Senate races across the country.
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  Speaker 5: Well, of course, there's House races we're paying attention to
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  Speaker 5: in Michigan as well, one of them being in the
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  Speaker 5: 4th District, currently a seat held by Republican Congressman Bill Huizenga. He,
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  Speaker 5: of course, is well known to our audience as a
• 10:46
  Speaker 5: member of the Financial Services Committee and one of the
• 10:49
  Speaker 5: more senior members of that. There's a number of other
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  Speaker 5: people on the committee that you used to chair.
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  Speaker 6: Obviously, Mr.
• 10:56
  Speaker 5: Chairman Brian Stile in Wisconsin, even the chair of the
• 11:00
  Speaker 5: committee now, French Hill in Arkansas, all of whom sit
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  Speaker 5: in seats that Democrats are targeting.
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  Speaker 6: This cycle. Do you believe any of them might lose? No,
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  Speaker 6: I have.
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  Speaker 12: Confidence that they're going to be victorious, but they're working
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  Speaker 12: very hard.
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  Speaker 10: They've raised a lot of money, spent a lot of money.
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  Speaker 12: They're quite influential members of the Financial Services Committee, but
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  Speaker 12: it shows the nature of the electorate this cycle. Brian
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  Speaker 12: Stile is in a Republican district, narrowly Republican district in
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  Speaker 12: the state of Wisconsin. The president won the district by
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  Speaker 12: very low single digits. Huizenga, the president, won his district
• 11:39
  Speaker 12: by high single digits. And French Hill, Chairman French Hill,
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  Speaker 12: his district was won by double digits by President Trump.
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  Speaker 12: So it tells you that there's a lot of pressure
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  Speaker 12: on Republican members of the House during this election cycle,
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  Speaker 12: a lot of pressure on my Republican Party to to
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  Speaker 12: perform with the electorate is quite sour on Republicans right now.
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  Speaker 12: So it's going to be a close and an interesting
• 12:02
  Speaker 12: election night. And we'll have to see whether or not
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  Speaker 12: these polls and these early indications we're getting with early
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  Speaker 12: voting actually hold sway once the polls close and we
• 12:14
  Speaker 12: start counting votes.
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  Speaker 1: We're going to talk later this hour with Don Levy
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  Speaker 1: at Siena.
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  Speaker 8: Uh, Mr.
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  Speaker 7: Chairman, it's pretty wild to see these numbers today. Rick
• 12:21
  Speaker 7: Davis was suggesting that it's, it's the directional component.
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  Speaker 1: That's important. Not the spread, not the number.
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  Speaker 7: Uh, if I'll say it wins in Michigan, it's not
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  Speaker 7: going to be by 11 points.
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  Speaker 1: Is it, how do you read numbers like this in
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  Speaker 1: the late game?
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  Speaker 12: So there's this great notion of shy Republican voters, right?
• 12:40
  Speaker 12: We're hearing a lot within my party are saying, look,
• 12:44
  Speaker 12: you have people that are Republicans, but they're unwilling to
• 12:46
  Speaker 12: say who they're going to vote for. A lot of
• 12:49
  Speaker 12: the undecideds right now are consistent Republican voters who are
• 12:53
  Speaker 12: not willing to say who they're voting for. So there's
• 12:56
  Speaker 12: some indications you have an unwillingness by Republicans to answer.
• 13:01
  Speaker 10: These public opinion surveys.
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  Speaker 12: But my question is, if you're unwilling to answer the survey,
• 13:06
  Speaker 12: are you going to show up on election day? So
• 13:09
  Speaker 12: we have to really see whether or not this holds
• 13:13
  Speaker 12: sway through election day.
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  Speaker 10: Turnout matters.
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  Speaker 12: Republicans have a higher propensity of voting on election day
• 13:20
  Speaker 12: than early.
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  Speaker 10: We know that across the states, but especially.
• 13:24
  Speaker 12: In my home state of North Carolina, where Democrats have
• 13:26
  Speaker 12: consistently won early voting results. So we're going to see it,
• 13:32
  Speaker 12: and we're going to see it early in election night,
• 13:34
  Speaker 12: whether or not these polls are true, how far they're off,
• 13:39
  Speaker 12: what is the nature of the electorate? It's decidedly democratic
• 13:41
  Speaker 12: and favoring Democrats. Yes, we hear that clearly. But if
• 13:46
  Speaker 12: you have a Senate race, like in Ohio, where public
• 13:49
  Speaker 12: opinion surveys say that the Democrat is up by three
• 13:52
  Speaker 12: and the polling's off a little bit, does the Democrat win?
• 13:56
  Speaker 10: If you have a state.
• 13:57
  Speaker 12: Like Iowa, where Ashley Henson is leading in the polls
• 14:01
  Speaker 12: by a half a percentage point, That's kind of the
• 14:04
  Speaker 12: average on the real clear politics right now.
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  Speaker 10: Does it actually turn out that way? Does she win
• 14:09
  Speaker 10: by two or three?
• 14:10
  Speaker 12: What does that tell us about the electorate in the
• 14:12
  Speaker 12: state of Iowa? We're going to find out a lot
• 14:15
  Speaker 12: of this stuff early on election night. But got to
• 14:18
  Speaker 12: be honest with you here the day before the election.
• 14:21
  Speaker 12: We're sitting here trying to define what people will do tomorrow.
• 14:25
  Speaker 12: What we do know is the Senate majority hangs on
• 14:29
  Speaker 12: these very close.
• 14:31
  Speaker 10: Elections in Republican states.
• 14:34
  Speaker 12: The Democrats are leading, but within the margin of error
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  Speaker 12: in almost all these states.
• 14:40
  Speaker 10: And the Senate majority hangs on who comes out tomorrow.
• 14:44
  Speaker 10: We will see.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: more coming up after this.
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  Speaker 7: We consider the fallout in Michigan. It's been a pretty
• 15:15
  Speaker 7: remarkable thing. to witness as Haley Stevens, the Democrat, of course,
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  Speaker 7: who lost the primary to Abdul El-Sayed at the very
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  Speaker 7: last minute, decides to endorse the Republican Mike Rogers, a
• 15:27
  Speaker 7: former congressman who, of course, the president was in Michigan
• 15:31
  Speaker 7: supporting just days ago. The response from Abdul El-Sayed, who
• 15:35
  Speaker 7: we find still leading in polls, according to the New
• 15:37
  Speaker 7: York Times-Siena, but those polls were taken before this drama
• 15:41
  Speaker 7: that unfolded over the weekend. His response in Michigan here.
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  Speaker 13: At the end of the day, I actually don't think
• 15:46
  Speaker 13: about Haley Stevens.
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  Speaker 1: See what I'm saying?
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  Speaker 13: I think about the, like I said, the 9,999,998 people
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  Speaker 13: who are not those two.
• 15:55
  Speaker 8: Because you know what?
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  Speaker 13: I'm just less interested in the politics of it all
• 16:00
  Speaker 13: than I am in the policy of it all. And so, look,
• 16:03
  Speaker 13: if you're somebody who believes that we ought to have
• 16:05
  Speaker 13: more rights, not less, then I would think you would
• 16:08
  Speaker 13: support me in this race. If you are somebody who
• 16:10
  Speaker 13: believes that we should stand up to hate and you
• 16:13
  Speaker 13: have watched this last campaign, I think we probably would
• 16:16
  Speaker 13: not want to support Mike Rogers and Donald Trump and
• 16:18
  Speaker 13: JD Vance.
• 16:20
  Speaker 5: So on this and the wider landscape for Democrats on
• 16:23
  Speaker 5: this eve of the midterm elections, we turn now to
• 16:26
  Speaker 5: the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Congresswoman Susan
• 16:30
  Speaker 5: DelBene of Washington is back with us on.
• 16:32
  Speaker 6: Bloomberg TV and radio.
• 16:33
  Speaker 5: She's joining us from Pennsylvania today as she stumps for
• 16:36
  Speaker 5: a number of candidates in the home stretch here. And Chairwoman,
• 16:39
  Speaker 5: we do want to talk about the electoral map, but
• 16:42
  Speaker 5: if we could just begin as you are first and foremost,
• 16:44
  Speaker 5: a Democratic member of Congress, a member of the Democratic caucus.
• 16:49
  Speaker 5: Does Haley Stevens still deserve a spot in that caucus
• 16:52
  Speaker 5: after endorsing Mike Rogers? Should she keep her committee assignments
• 16:56
  Speaker 5: or should there be consequences in her final few months
• 16:58
  Speaker 5: as a member?
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: You know, this is a distraction because what's critically important
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: is we have a election tomorrow. And this is about
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: standing up for the American people and change. We're going
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: to see folks vote for Dr. El-Sayed because they want change.
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: And we have great candidates running in Michigan who are
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: going to help flip the house. Folks like Christina Hines
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: and Sean McCann and Will Lawrence and Kaylee Barr. That's
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: what people know what's at stake. That's our focus right now,
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: making sure we turn out the vote.
• 17:29
  Speaker 7: Confident and paranoid is the headline today at CNN, which
• 17:33
  Speaker 7: I believe had a chance to talk with you about
• 17:36
  Speaker 7: this moment. Give us a sense of where your psychology
• 17:40
  Speaker 7: is with 24 hours to go and what actual districts
• 17:45
  Speaker 7: you're targeting with late campaigning today.
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: Well, we're going to campaign everywhere until polls close all
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: across the country. Make sure we fight for every vote.
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: because some of these elections may be very close. But
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: let's be very clear. Folks are angry across the country.
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: They're struggling with high prices, struggling with healthcare being gutted.
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: They see the corruption happening across the country. Our secret
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: sauce is having great candidates who are running all across
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: the country in these districts. They're what's going to help
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: create this change. So we are we take nothing for granted.
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: I'm confident because we will take back the majority tomorrow night.
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: But I am also paranoid because I know since the
• 18:31
  Speaker 3: very beginning of this cycle, Republicans have done nothing but
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: try to rig the system.
• 18:36
  Speaker 9: We have fought back.
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: We've been successful fighting back and we are ready to
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: fight back all the way through and after the election.
• 18:43
  Speaker 5: Well, as you talk about regaining the majority, Congresswoman, when
• 18:47
  Speaker 5: tomorrow night will you be able to say decisively that
• 18:51
  Speaker 5: you've done that or feel that you are at least
• 18:53
  Speaker 5: heading in that direction?
• 18:54
  Speaker 6: What are those first races.
• 18:56
  Speaker 5: As the results come in that you will be looking
• 18:59
  Speaker 5: for that we should be watching out for on election night?
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: Well, you know, of course, I will look at everyone.
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: We have a map of 92, but maybe some things
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: to look at, which could be indicators. Kentucky 6, since
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: polls closed earlier in Kentucky, this is a pickup opportunity
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: for us. We have Zach Dembo, who has been running
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: a strong campaign. He's going to flip a seat in
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: Kentucky next. That's a Trump plus 15 district. Then you
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: go to some of these places where they gerrymandered to
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: try to pick up new seats for Republicans and it's backfiring.
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: Places like South Texas, Henry Cuellar incumbent running for reelection
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: who will win or Kathy Castor in Florida or Marcy
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: Kaptur in Ohio.
• 19:44
  Speaker 9: Those are some races that really.
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: Show you how gerrymandering has backfired for them. And then
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: you know, classic swing districts like Arizona six in Southern Arizona,
• 19:55
  Speaker 3: Joe Mendoza, our candidate running against Juan Siskamati. There's another
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: race wheel flip. Of course we could go after example,
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: after example, after example, but there's a few that give
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: you a sense of, the change we're going to see.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: Really interesting.
• 20:08
  Speaker 7: I'm looking at the signs behind you, Madam Chair, and
• 20:12
  Speaker 7: for the benefit of our radio audience, I see cup
• 20:14
  Speaker 7: prices and the war. I also see Bob Harvey, and
• 20:18
  Speaker 7: I'm wondering about that race specifically. If he beats Brian
• 20:21
  Speaker 7: Fitzpatrick and we get that call early in the evening,
• 20:24
  Speaker 7: what does that tell us about the rest of the nation?
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: Well, it tells you that people see what's happened. And
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: while Biden Fitzpatrick has run as a moderate, there are
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: no moderates left on the Republican Party. What people want
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: is a representative, not a rubber stamp. And they want
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: folks who are going to stand up. And we haven't
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: seen any Republicans stand up to the damage that has
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: been done. Barb Harvey is a public servant to this community.
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: He is a native of Bucks County. I've been out
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: seeing folks who are just energized out knocking on doors.
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: There's huge enthusiasm here. So we absolutely will flip this
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: seat tomorrow.
• 21:05
  Speaker 5: Well, and I know you're out there in the field,
• 21:07
  Speaker 5: but I'm sure you've also been conducting and commissioning a
• 21:11
  Speaker 5: fair amount of internal polling. And in this home stretch,
• 21:14
  Speaker 5: we're obviously having a conversation as to whether or not
• 21:16
  Speaker 5: polls may have missed the mark once again, if they
• 21:20
  Speaker 5: could be overestimating the strength of Democrats this cycle, given
• 21:23
  Speaker 5: the lower response rates for Republicans.
• 21:26
  Speaker 6: Is that a concern that you have?
• 21:28
  Speaker 5: Have you adjusted your expectations with that thought in mind,
• 21:32
  Speaker 5: or do you believe the polls are right this time?
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: We look at what is happening everywhere. First of all,
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: all the race raters across the country have been moving
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: districts in our direction. I think as of now, 314
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: times they've moved races in our direction since Labor Day.
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: That's not just in one district, that's across the country.
• 21:51
  Speaker 9: You're seeing that momentum. Folks are turning out and.
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: Voting, voting, early voting turnout has been high, far above normal.
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: midterm voting in 2022. There's a lot of energy on
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: the ground. So when you go across the country, as
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: I have, you see that energy. When I was with
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: Marcy Kaptur last week, folks waiting in line for early
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: voting in Ohio, they were energized, they were excited and
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: felt a responsibility to make sure their voice is heard.
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: So it's a combination of all those pieces, great candidates,
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: the data that we see, but definitely the energy that
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: we see on the ground.
• 22:30
  Speaker 9: People want folks who are going to.
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: Stand up for them and want to make sure that
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: the House of Representatives is the people's house, not the
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: not an arm of the administration.
• 22:41
  Speaker 7: It's been amazing following the money and some of the
• 22:43
  Speaker 7: late moves that we've seen some like to call triage.
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: Depending on what side you're on.
• 22:48
  Speaker 7: Congresswoman, no-going backpack, according to Ad Impact, this is a
• 22:53
  Speaker 7: Trump-aligned super PAC, is moving a pretty sizable chunk, $ 750, 000
• 22:57
  Speaker 7: in the Tampa television market that was going to be
• 23:03
  Speaker 7: attacking Representative Kathy Castor, who you already mentioned here. They're
• 23:06
  Speaker 7: going to be moving that to a completely different district,
• 23:08
  Speaker 7: Florida's 13th, to protect Trump ally, Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna.
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: When you see a move.
• 23:15
  Speaker 7: Like that with 48 hours to go, what does that
• 23:18
  Speaker 7: tell you?
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: It shows you that they know they're losing. They've lost
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: the hearts and minds of the American people. Republicans have
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: had seemingly infinite dollars out there and have been spending
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: all across the country, but they have no message, nothing.
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: And so when you take infinity times zero, you still
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: get zero. That's why it's not making a difference anymore.
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: Having incredible candidates, which has been our secret sauce, talking
• 23:46
  Speaker 3: about the issues that matter on the ground, people understanding
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: that folks are fighting for them.
• 23:52
  Speaker 9: That's why we're winning.
• 23:52
  Speaker 3: And that's why Leela Gray, who is running against Anna
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: Paulina Luna, will win in Florida.
• 24:00
  Speaker 5: Well, how confident are you, Congressman, before we let you go,
• 24:03
  Speaker 5: that even if there are victories for Democrats, that they
• 24:06
  Speaker 5: will not be contested ultimately? The president's openly talking about this.
• 24:11
  Speaker 5: Other groups have been pursuing, of course, legal action. Do
• 24:16
  Speaker 5: you have lawyers on staff ready to go if necessary
• 24:19
  Speaker 5: to challenge results or to defend them?
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: We have had the largest voter protection team of the
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: DCCC that we've ever had. We have been prepared from
• 24:28
  Speaker 3: the beginning, because let's be clear, they started at the
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: beginning of this cycle, gerrymandering, attacking vote by mail, trying
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: to kick legal voters off of the rolls. And we
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: fought back, and we have been successful fighting back, and
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: we are prepared as we head into Election Day and
• 24:45
  Speaker 3: after to continue to fight to make sure we have
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: a free and fair election, and we will.
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: more coming up after this.
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
• 25:02
  Speaker 4: us live weekdays at noon and 5 p.m. Eastern on
• 25:05
  Speaker 4: Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.
• 25:08
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• 25:11
  Speaker 4: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: Speaker Johnson, by the way, all over the place. He's
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: in McAllen, Texas.
• 25:21
  Speaker 7: And then he's going to be, gosh, before the polls
• 25:23
  Speaker 7: close tomorrow, visiting North Carolina's first district, Lori Buckout, who
• 25:28
  Speaker 7: is up against Representative Don Davis. Then he's on to
• 25:31
  Speaker 7: North Carolina to help out Greg Murphy. He'll be in
• 25:35
  Speaker 7: Virginia with Jen Kiggins.
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: Check this out, Johnson.
• 25:39
  Speaker 7: You know, Donald Trump's been in a different state every
• 25:42
  Speaker 7: day for the last two, three weeks. Johnson has campaigned
• 25:46
  Speaker 7: with 91 candidates at more than 90 events across 24
• 25:52
  Speaker 7: states in the last month.
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: This guy's not going to pay for an airline ticket
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: for the next year. We'll see if it matters.
• 25:58
  Speaker 7: He says it's hilarious to think Democrats can get to
• 26:03
  Speaker 7: 230 seats because the polling would suggest that, well, tomorrow's
• 26:06
  Speaker 7: going to be a pretty darn good night. And of course,
• 26:08
  Speaker 7: for weeks, we've been hearing that Democrats are going to
• 26:10
  Speaker 7: take the House. The Senate remains a question. And we
• 26:13
  Speaker 7: want to get into it all with David Paliologos. Nothing
• 26:15
  Speaker 7: like an election eve with Paliologos, director of the Suffolk
• 26:19
  Speaker 7: University Political Research Center.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: David, welcome back. It's really great to see you.
• 26:22
  Speaker 7: I'm just wondering if we can start 30,000 feet, the
• 26:26
  Speaker 7: conventional wisdom going into this campaign, into this election night,
• 26:30
  Speaker 7: whether it's polls or prediction markets. Have we gone too
• 26:34
  Speaker 7: far with democratic fortunes?
• 26:38
  Speaker 8: You know, we'll find out.
• 26:39
  Speaker 14: I think the polling and the prediction markets are a
• 26:42
  Speaker 14: pretty good indicator. Look, I mean, the economic conditions, I mean,
• 26:48
  Speaker 14: this is all you talk about all the time. When
• 26:51
  Speaker 14: you look at 2018, the consumer confidence level was 139.
• 26:57
  Speaker 14: Now it's in the low 90s. The interest rate was 5%
• 26:59
  Speaker 14: or less back in 2018. Now it's over 7%. Trump's
• 27:05
  Speaker 14: approval rating is in the mid-high 30s. Back then in
• 27:08
  Speaker 14: October of 2018, it was 44% approval. Forget the polling
• 27:14
  Speaker 14: and the predictors. Just look at the economic situation. which
• 27:20
  Speaker 14: is now harnessing itself among independents in these swing states.
• 27:24
  Speaker 7: Well, I want to focus on Ohio. These were your
• 27:26
  Speaker 7: last numbers, and we talked about them when they were released.
• 27:30
  Speaker 7: It's pretty interesting because they're continuing to resonate here, beginning
• 27:33
  Speaker 7: with the governor's race. With regard to the Ramaswamy ad
• 27:39
  Speaker 7: that offended so many people on both sides of the aisle,
• 27:42
  Speaker 7: you've got Ramaswamy 44 and Amy Acton at 48%. How
• 27:47
  Speaker 7: much of this ad splashed back on Ramaswamy, or is
• 27:51
  Speaker 7: that impossible to quantify?
• 27:53
  Speaker 8: Well, we asked.
• 27:54
  Speaker 14: And what I found fascinating, you know, you were talking
• 27:57
  Speaker 14: about Michigan earlier. What I found fascinating was that one
• 28:00
  Speaker 14: quarter of likely voters said that they had not seen
• 28:04
  Speaker 14: or heard about the ad. That was after a week
• 28:08
  Speaker 14: of national news, local news. So, I'm wondering how many
• 28:12
  Speaker 14: people in Michigan are going to be not going to
• 28:16
  Speaker 14: be oblivious about what just happened yesterday in terms of
• 28:20
  Speaker 14: casting ballots. But no, Ohio was pretty definitive for both Democrats.
• 28:26
  Speaker 14: The trick in Ohio is the third party candidate, Kissick,
• 28:31
  Speaker 14: Don Kissick, who's a libertarian. That vote, and it's going
• 28:36
  Speaker 14: to be around 3%, has been a buffer between Amy Acton,
• 28:40
  Speaker 14: the Democrat, and Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican. So you could
• 28:44
  Speaker 14: see a break where Amy Acton only, I say only,
• 28:49
  Speaker 14: gets to 51 or 52, but still wins by 5
• 28:52
  Speaker 14: or 6. Because the libertarian vote, there are some people who...
• 28:58
  Speaker 14: did not like the ad and but will never vote Democratic.
• 29:03
  Speaker 8: So what do they do?
• 29:04
  Speaker 14: They either don't vote or they vote for some form
• 29:07
  Speaker 14: of conservative politics and they'll cast for the libertarian. A
• 29:11
  Speaker 14: lot of people are talking about that third party candidate,
• 29:14
  Speaker 14: but he'll factor in the margin.
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: And then that trickles down the Senate race.
• 29:18
  Speaker 8: Yeah. Oh, sure.
• 29:21
  Speaker 14: You know, the Senate race, you know, we polled it
• 29:23
  Speaker 14: twice in September. We had Brown plus three. We had
• 29:28
  Speaker 14: Brown plus three in the more recent poll. And again,
• 29:31
  Speaker 14: you know, the difference between this election in 2024 and
• 29:36
  Speaker 14: the difference between this election in 2018 is that independents.
• 29:40
  Speaker 8: Have swung away from Republicans.
• 29:42
  Speaker 14: It's not necessarily an embrace of Democratic core values. It's
• 29:48
  Speaker 14: that these independents, they've left the Republican Party by a
• 29:53
  Speaker 14: wide margin. And Iowa Turk was winning independents in the
• 29:56
  Speaker 14: high 20s. Same thing in the Ohio Senate race. Brown
• 30:00
  Speaker 14: was winning 27, 28-point lead among independents. or self-identified independence
• 30:08
  Speaker 14: in Ohio.
• 30:10
  Speaker 7: Boy, it's pretty remarkable when we talk about things in
• 30:14
  Speaker 7: terms of waves, and there are going to be exceptions,
• 30:16
  Speaker 7: of course, across the night. David, give us a sense
• 30:19
  Speaker 7: tomorrow evening, 7, 8 o'clock, what are the districts on
• 30:22
  Speaker 7: the East Coast that you're looking at for clues?
• 30:25
  Speaker 8: Maine, New Hampshire, Georgia, North Carolina, for starter.
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 30:31
  Speaker 8: Right.
• 30:31
  Speaker 14: Those are, you know, I mean, house is different. I mean,
• 30:36
  Speaker 14: you know, house is definitely more regional. But I mean,
• 30:40
  Speaker 14: we were talking earlier about 230 as the as, you know,
• 30:44
  Speaker 14: Mike Johnson saying people are dreaming. Yeah.
• 30:46
  Speaker 8: I mean, I'm looking at.
• 30:47
  Speaker 14: A house that could be 240 to 250 after tomorrow.
• 30:52
  Speaker 8: And I'm looking at a Senate that could be 53,
• 30:53
  Speaker 8: 54 easily.
• 30:56
  Speaker 14: The thing I would think about in the Iowa, which
• 31:00
  Speaker 14: I mean, in the Senate is Iowa in the Midwest,
• 31:02
  Speaker 14: because we polled it twice. first time Republicans were winning both,
• 31:07
  Speaker 14: second time Democrats were winning both, is that the conventional
• 31:12
  Speaker 14: wisdom is that Republicans are going to take Iowa, hence
• 31:15
  Speaker 14: it is enough distance from Trump, and so therefore should
• 31:19
  Speaker 14: be able to maintain it. I'm going to stick with
• 31:21
  Speaker 14: our poll showing Turek a winner, and if Turek wins,
• 31:25
  Speaker 14: that's going to be an automatic for Ohio and Michigan,
• 31:29
  Speaker 14: and it opens up Kansas and Nebraska.
• 31:32
  Speaker 8: If Turek loses.
• 31:33
  Speaker 14: then you could have a closer and later night on
• 31:36
  Speaker 14: election night.
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: Incredible.
• 31:37
  Speaker 7: And I think you're on to something, David, when it
• 31:39
  Speaker 7: comes to the race in Michigan. People were watching football.
• 31:43
  Speaker 7: They were stealing their kids candy from Halloween. I just
• 31:46
  Speaker 7: I find it hard to believe that that move, while
• 31:48
  Speaker 7: it did give some Democrats permission to vote for Mike Rogers,
• 31:52
  Speaker 7: that this probably wouldn't move a poll dramatically if you
• 31:55
  Speaker 7: took it today.
• 31:56
  Speaker 8: Right.
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: We've got about 30 seconds.
• 31:58
  Speaker 14: Yeah, I mean, not everybody's going to copy and paste
• 32:01
  Speaker 14: what happened. I mean, look, 2 million people have already voted.
• 32:04
  Speaker 14: There's another 2.5 million people out there. But most of
• 32:07
  Speaker 14: those people out there remaining are Republicans who don't vote early.
• 32:11
  Speaker 14: So you've got some Democrats and independents who have not
• 32:15
  Speaker 14: yet voted. But the undecided is very low. And the
• 32:20
  Speaker 14: current polling shows, you know, El-Sayed winning by 10%. 250,000 votes.
• 32:26
  Speaker 14: There aren't enough votes left. And keep one other thing
• 32:29
  Speaker 14: in mind. There were six candidates on that Michigan ballot
• 32:32
  Speaker 14: for Senate, not two.
• 32:34
  Speaker 8: So people might not vote for Rogers.
• 32:37
  Speaker 14: They may not vote for El-Sayed, but they could vote
• 32:40
  Speaker 14: for a Green Party candidate or a Natural Law Party candidate.
• 32:44
  Speaker 8: As a matter of expression in that election.
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: Just to make it even more interesting.
• 32:49
  Speaker 7: David Pagliologos, Selection Eve. It's great to see you, David.
• 32:52
  Speaker 7: and thank you for sharing some insights with us. The
• 32:54
  Speaker 7: force behind the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: I should have asked him if he likes foie gras.
• 33:01
  Speaker 7: This next story is one we have been promising to
• 33:03
  Speaker 7: get to for days and weeks, and it's finally time.
• 33:08
  Speaker 7: The headline on the terminal, courtesy Kristen Capps. Foie gras
• 33:11
  Speaker 7: ballot initiatives fueled by one activist in Portland. Did you
• 33:15
  Speaker 7: know that among all the other things we're voting on,
• 33:18
  Speaker 7: voters in Denver and... in my hometown city, Washington, D.C.,
• 33:22
  Speaker 7: will weigh ballot measures to ban the sale of foie gras. Yes,
• 33:28
  Speaker 7: the French delicacy made from fattened duck or goose liver
• 33:31
  Speaker 7: sold at some of these city's finest restaurants. Do you
• 33:35
  Speaker 7: like a little foie gras with a sauternes? I think, well,
• 33:38
  Speaker 7: I don't know. I'm not going to speak for Kristen.
• 33:40
  Speaker 7: Bloomberg News reporter actually made the phone call and got
• 33:43
  Speaker 7: on the telephone with the woman who was driving all
• 33:45
  Speaker 7: of this, and he joins us now from Washington, D.C. Kristen, maybe,
• 33:49
  Speaker 7: you know, I'm trying to just be full disclosure here.
• 33:52
  Speaker 7: I don't mind the foie gras on the menu.
• 33:55
  Speaker 9: Do you?
• 33:57
  Speaker 15: You know, this is the most important issue facing any
• 33:59
  Speaker 15: voters in these midterm elections.
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: I'm happy you agree with me on that.
• 34:03
  Speaker 15: So I'm glad that we're going to chat this up.
• 34:05
  Speaker 8: Yes.
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: Is here in D.C.
• 34:07
  Speaker 15: We might never again enjoy a, you know, a mousse, taurine,
• 34:12
  Speaker 15: a liver pate if this ballot measure passes.
• 34:15
  Speaker 7: And is this to ban the force feeding of ducks
• 34:18
  Speaker 7: and geese? What would this actually outlaw?
• 34:22
  Speaker 15: OK, so these are ballot measures that are appearing before
• 34:24
  Speaker 15: voters in both Denver and Washington, D.C., this cycle. And
• 34:28
  Speaker 15: this would ban the sale, the import, the distribution of
• 34:34
  Speaker 15: foie gras.
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: Nowhere in D.C.
• 34:36
  Speaker 15: Or in Denver, to my knowledge, is any farm producing
• 34:41
  Speaker 15: foie gras. So it's really just about what the restaurants
• 34:43
  Speaker 15: and grocery stores are able to sell.
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, got you. CeCe, that's fantastic.
• 34:46
  Speaker 7: These are the true kitchen table issues that we are
• 34:48
  Speaker 7: covering here in this election cycle. Who is this woman,
• 34:53
  Speaker 7: and why does she care? She lives in California. Why
• 34:56
  Speaker 7: does she care what's happening in Washington, D.C.
• 35:00
  Speaker 15: Yeah, she's based in Portland, Oregon, actually. She is an
• 35:04
  Speaker 15: animal rights activist. And she started her path in activism
• 35:10
  Speaker 15: through direct action, meaning she was, you know, doing interventions
• 35:15
  Speaker 15: at facilities. She faced felony charges, in fact, from an
• 35:20
  Speaker 15: action she allegedly partook in a few years ago at
• 35:24
  Speaker 15: a dog breeding facility in Madison, Wisconsin.
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: But since then, she's tried to change tactics.
• 35:30
  Speaker 15: And she decided that if she writes ballot measures and
• 35:33
  Speaker 15: gets them in front of voters in different cities, she's
• 35:36
  Speaker 15: going to have a greater impact that way.
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: Fascinating. Wow. All right.
• 35:39
  Speaker 7: So we're going to find out tomorrow if this is
• 35:42
  Speaker 7: the case. And this is it's Eva Hammer. That's the
• 35:45
  Speaker 7: woman we're talking about.
• 35:46
  Speaker 9: Right.
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: If you want to read more about that. That's right.
• 35:49
  Speaker 7: Pro Animal Future has spent nearly $ 378, 000 to get Initiative
• 35:53
  Speaker 7: 86 on the ballot in D.C.
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: Will we get an early call on this, Kristen? Yeah,
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: I think it's going to pass.
• 36:00
  Speaker 15: It looks like overwhelmingly likely based on internal polling. When
• 36:03
  Speaker 15: does it take effect? This would be in the new year.
• 36:06
  Speaker 15: This would be in the new year. All right. So
• 36:09
  Speaker 15: we'll meet you at Le Dip for our last foie gras.
• 36:12
  Speaker 15: Are you on board?
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: I'll see you there.
• 36:14
  Speaker 7: Kristen Kass, great work. Come on more often. From our Washington, D.C. bureau,
• 36:20
  Speaker 7: Kristen Capps, the foie gras is on the menu in
• 36:23
  Speaker 7: this election. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
• 36:29
  Speaker 7: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify.
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: Or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at noontime Eastern
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg.com.