Latest / Financial Survival Network / War, Debt, Silver Shock - John Rubino #6384

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War, Debt, Silver Shock - John Rubino #6384 · Financial Survival Network

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Speaker 2: Welcome man, It's Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie
0:31
Speaker 2: Let's John Rabino is with us. A lot to talk about. John,
0:35
Speaker 2: the most amazing thing is the war starts, silver and
0:40
Speaker 2: gold get slammed, they go down, the war cease fire.
0:46
Speaker 2: I don't think it's the end of the war by
0:47
Speaker 2: any stretch, and all of a sudden, gold and silver
0:50
Speaker 2: go Uh how do you explain that one?
0:53
Speaker 3: Well, probably because there are so many margin calls happening
0:59
Speaker 3: out there. You know, the war starts and stocks go down,
1:03
Speaker 3: and that means everybody with the tech stock portfolio or
1:05
Speaker 3: whatever that they bought on margin have to put up
1:08
Speaker 3: some extra cash, and so they have to sell something
1:12
Speaker 3: that is stable enough to get a reasonable amount of
1:14
Speaker 3: cash out of. And right now in this market, partially
1:18
Speaker 3: is gold and silver. So I think there's been a
1:21
Speaker 3: lot of selling based on that, and I think it
1:25
Speaker 3: was Russia and Turkey. Their central banks sold a bunch
1:30
Speaker 3: of gold as the war progressed. And you know they're
1:34
Speaker 3: doing that because they're they've got bills to pay and
1:39
Speaker 3: selling gold is one way to get the cash to
1:41
Speaker 3: do that. So and you know, you take that away
1:44
Speaker 3: like and the war, and all of a sudden, people
1:46
Speaker 3: aren't so worried. The stock market is up, there aren't
1:48
Speaker 3: as many margin calls, and gold and silver go back up.
1:51
Speaker 3: So that kind of action is very temporary because if
1:58
Speaker 3: the war goes on, in other words, if this ceasefire
2:01
Speaker 3: breaks and we go back to shooting and destroying energy
2:06
Speaker 3: infrastructure around the world, that's going to be very expensive
2:10
Speaker 3: for a lot of people. You know, everybody's defense budget
2:13
Speaker 3: has to go up, which means government spending has to soar,
2:15
Speaker 3: which means borrowing has to soar, which is inflationary. So
2:19
Speaker 3: that kind of an environment is eventually really good for
2:23
Speaker 3: precious metals. So I think the lesson here is just
2:29
Speaker 3: don't stress over the squiggles in the short run, because
2:33
Speaker 3: the overall environment that is over indebted countries destroying our currencies,
2:38
Speaker 3: that goes on no matter what you know, it maybe
2:41
Speaker 3: even accelerates if geopolitics is unsettled. But whatever happens, nothing
2:49
Speaker 3: is going to change. That lowers the deficit spending of
2:53
Speaker 3: the big countries in the world. That's just baked into
2:55
Speaker 3: the cake, which means that goes on until the currencies
3:00
Speaker 3: have to be resets and we'll probably have to go
3:03
Speaker 3: back to a gold standard, so that whole dynamic is
3:05
Speaker 3: great for gold and silver. And in the meantime, we
3:08
Speaker 3: just have to let the little things happen as they happen.
3:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, like people are just too quick to celebrate because
3:15
Speaker 2: this war is not over here. I mean what I
3:19
Speaker 2: predict happening, And hey, I could be wrong, I could
3:24
Speaker 2: be right, but my gut feel is that what will
3:30
Speaker 2: happen the bombing campaign is over that aspect of the war.
3:36
Speaker 2: There's not much more that we can accomplish. We've run
3:40
Speaker 2: out of targets, right, But as far as training the Kurds,
3:46
Speaker 2: organizing the attack from the north and the Israelis, we've
3:50
Speaker 2: got like a whole Vietnam type thing. And I don't
3:53
Speaker 2: mean to say it's going to wind up like Vietnam,
3:55
Speaker 2: but it's a military advisors training camps in the North
4:00
Speaker 2: all of this. So one of two things happens. Bombing ends,
4:04
Speaker 2: people come out, popular uprising, they throw them all as out,
4:08
Speaker 2: all right. But the backup plan, the plan B, which
4:13
Speaker 2: the AI has already factored in, is what if it
4:18
Speaker 2: doesn't work, well, then we arm the cards and all
4:23
Speaker 2: the other disaffected people. Probably even have mercenaries in there,
4:28
Speaker 2: you know, from various places, right, various veterans of failed
4:36
Speaker 2: wars past, and we send them in and then give
4:42
Speaker 2: them support. And that's the way it gets done. That's
4:46
Speaker 2: my take on it. I might be crazy, but I've
4:49
Speaker 2: kind of called this thing from the get go.
4:51
Speaker 3: John, Yeah, Okay, my take would be, or we could
4:58
Speaker 3: just stop invading other countries and close down the military
5:02
Speaker 3: empire and bring a million soldiers home and defend our
5:08
Speaker 3: actual borders like a rational country, because this whole you know,
5:13
Speaker 3: I started out as a Trump fan, and he did
5:15
Speaker 3: a lot of really good things to begin with. I mean,
5:17
Speaker 3: the border is still closed. That was phenomenal. But this,
5:22
Speaker 3: you know, he and JD. Vance and Tulsea Gabbard ran
5:28
Speaker 3: on ending the regime change wars, and that's why a
5:31
Speaker 3: lot of people voted for these guys. So you've got
5:34
Speaker 3: a civil war within MAGA right now, among the neocons
5:40
Speaker 3: who are trying to take over the movement and the
5:43
Speaker 3: original MAGA voters and MAGA activists who actually wanted a
5:50
Speaker 3: pro peace administration that wasn't going to do crazy shit
5:53
Speaker 3: like this. So, you know, I think that if we
5:59
Speaker 3: have some analogous to Vietnam happen now, then we get
6:04
Speaker 3: the financial crisis sooner rather than later, because to fund
6:09
Speaker 3: a Vietnam style war against a country of ninety million
6:15
Speaker 3: people in mountainous terrain is going to be incredibly expensive.
6:22
Speaker 3: So we'll go from you know, two trillion dollar deficits
6:25
Speaker 3: to three point five or whatever, and the interest costs
6:29
Speaker 3: on the death that we're building up will accelerate because
6:33
Speaker 3: we have to borrow the interest on top of everything else.
6:35
Speaker 3: So I think it's financially potentially catastrophic if we actively
6:42
Speaker 3: try to do anything more than just bomb these other countries.
6:46
Speaker 3: You know, we if we literally get involved in a
6:50
Speaker 3: ground war against ninety million people, then I don't think
6:56
Speaker 3: there's any good that comes from it, and I hope
6:59
Speaker 3: it doesn't happen.
7:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, the key is to these proxies. And remember
7:05
Speaker 2: in Vietnam, we had like one hundred thousand mercenaries doing
7:09
Speaker 2: our thing. There were Turks there, There was like Koreans,
7:13
Speaker 2: we had them from all over. The key isn't boots
7:16
Speaker 2: on the ground here, it is early training. We've got
7:20
Speaker 2: a cohesive force the Kurds already, and you know, basically
7:26
Speaker 2: the Iranian populations being held hostage here.
7:31
Speaker 3: So you remember we lost Vietnam catastrophically though, right and
7:38
Speaker 3: and then we had a decade of the nineteen seventies
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Speaker 3: that were you know, there was a massive currency crisis
7:43
Speaker 3: that that people our age still remember as being a
7:48
Speaker 3: really really bad decade and really terrifying decade in a
7:51
Speaker 3: lot of ways. And you know how many people were
7:55
Speaker 3: in Vietnam it was did have maybe twenty or thirty
7:58
Speaker 3: million back then. This is a much bigger deal.
8:02
Speaker 2: I went to Vietnam, and I agree with you. I'm
8:04
Speaker 2: not saying, you know, right or wrong, and I don't
8:09
Speaker 2: endorse ground troops, but this is a little bit different
8:12
Speaker 2: than Vietnam in that the actual people in Iran don't
8:18
Speaker 2: want this regime. They're kind of being held the hostage,
8:22
Speaker 2: if you will. But you know, hopefully it works out.
8:27
Speaker 2: I'm not saying it's going to I'm just saying that's
8:30
Speaker 2: the strategy. We actually have a strategy here, which is,
8:34
Speaker 2: you know, basically to change the regime, which it already
8:40
Speaker 2: has been changed, mainly because the old ones have been
8:43
Speaker 2: killed off. But you know, you have to make the
8:48
Speaker 2: determination are they really a threat and you know, are
8:52
Speaker 2: they a threat to the world? Is the nuclear their
8:56
Speaker 2: desire to get a nuclear weapon? Is that true? And
9:01
Speaker 2: then you kind of you know, decide whether it's a
9:04
Speaker 2: it's right or wrong. You know, there are just wars
9:09
Speaker 2: in this world. It's just that the US isn't very
9:11
Speaker 2: good at figuring out what they are. And uh, you know,
9:16
Speaker 2: we do have these neocons who never saw a war
9:19
Speaker 2: or a military engagement they didn't love, and you know,
9:23
Speaker 2: they've they've really injured the country, really hurt us as
9:27
Speaker 2: a whole. And you know, I think that's what we
9:31
Speaker 2: have to be mindful of here, that we're not being
9:34
Speaker 2: played yet again as the suckers that pick up the
9:38
Speaker 2: tab for all this. John.
9:40
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, when when when you say that some
9:43
Speaker 3: of our old wars didn't turn out very well, you know,
9:46
Speaker 3: the literally that we don't understand the Middle East, like
9:49
Speaker 3: we we finance somebody as to go fight for us,
9:54
Speaker 3: and then they turn into our enemies and then we
9:56
Speaker 3: have to finance somebody else to go fight for them
9:59
Speaker 3: or or you know, actively invade them. And everything in Syria, Libya,
10:05
Speaker 3: a Rock, Afghanistan, none of those things worked. They were
10:09
Speaker 3: all incredibly expensive mistakes. And I don't see any way
10:15
Speaker 3: that Iran is any different, except that in terms of
10:18
Speaker 3: scale it's much more dangerous. So yeah, and you know,
10:24
Speaker 3: if if there was anything that would convince me to
10:27
Speaker 3: buy even more gold, and you know, in terms of
10:31
Speaker 3: how much gold I own relative of my net worth,
10:35
Speaker 3: I already owned way too much, but I would I
10:39
Speaker 3: would you know, if we if we started financing a
10:41
Speaker 3: regime change war by by using proxy armies in the
10:48
Speaker 3: Middle East type, I would totally go out and buy
10:50
Speaker 3: more gold because the only possible consequence of that would
10:54
Speaker 3: be a currency crisis and a massive increase in the
10:57
Speaker 3: price of gold and silver. So you know, that's the
11:00
Speaker 3: right side of the crazy stuff that's happening right now,
11:02
Speaker 3: is that there's a very clear linear way to make
11:05
Speaker 3: a ton of money by betting against the neocons.
11:11
Speaker 2: Well, they've been wrong up to date, and yes, I
11:14
Speaker 2: agree with you that Trump has been a bit of
11:18
Speaker 2: a disappointment in that respect, But the final chapter hasn't
11:25
Speaker 2: been written yet. If passed his prologue, then definitely this
11:29
Speaker 2: is a mistake and we're going to wind up leaving
11:32
Speaker 2: the Middle East with our tail in between our legs.
11:35
Speaker 2: But well, I guess we'll just have to see. In
11:39
Speaker 2: the meantime, what about the private credit crack up that's
11:44
Speaker 2: happening here in the US. You could, if you were
11:46
Speaker 2: a cynic, maybe make the argument that the war is
11:51
Speaker 2: just a cover up for what's really happening here at home,
11:54
Speaker 2: a massive credit collapse in the private markets that the
12:00
Speaker 2: really affect the largest inter financial intermediaries in the country,
12:05
Speaker 2: in the world, Blackstone, black Rock, all of these other entities.
12:10
Speaker 2: What are your thoughts there?
12:12
Speaker 3: You know, one of the nice things. I'll get to
12:14
Speaker 3: the really dark stuff in the second But one of
12:16
Speaker 3: the nice things about this private equity collapse is that
12:20
Speaker 3: you don't have to try and remember which one is
12:24
Speaker 3: which Blackstone or black Rock. You can just say either
12:26
Speaker 3: one of them is collapsing, and then you're right, you know,
12:30
Speaker 3: So that's that's something. But yeah, the whole private equity,
12:37
Speaker 3: private credit, collateralized loan obligations, that whole sector of the economy,
12:42
Speaker 3: you know, of the shadow banking system is very opaque.
12:46
Speaker 3: We don't know who has what, we don't know where
12:48
Speaker 3: the bad paper is. But clearly more and more bad
12:52
Speaker 3: paper is blowing up out there, because that looks like
12:55
Speaker 3: every two weeks one of these companies that we've never
12:59
Speaker 3: heard of just explodes. And then they they're deciding what
13:05
Speaker 3: to do. Either they put the gate up and they
13:06
Speaker 3: won't let their investors take any money out, or they
13:10
Speaker 3: one of them, the partners and the ingisting investors, actually
13:15
Speaker 3: put their own money in in order to buy out
13:17
Speaker 3: the people who were affected by one of their funds
13:20
Speaker 3: crashing and burning. And yeah, yeah, that's an unusual thing,
13:25
Speaker 3: and you but you can't do it very often. You know,
13:26
Speaker 3: you can do it once, but you go back to
13:28
Speaker 3: your investors and your partners again for a second bail
13:31
Speaker 3: out not going to happen.
13:33
Speaker 2: So who do they think they are? JP? Morgan?
13:37
Speaker 3: Yeah, but you know, this is potentially much much bigger
13:45
Speaker 3: than the the the mortgage crisis of the two thousands.
13:52
Speaker 3: You know, subprime mortgages were tiny compared to the size
13:55
Speaker 3: of the shadow banking system. Now, so this could be
13:58
Speaker 3: a very big deal, and and so combine it with
14:02
Speaker 3: the fact that the shadow banking system financed a lot
14:05
Speaker 3: of software companies that are now being eaten alive, it
14:10
Speaker 3: looks like, by AI. And then combine that with the
14:14
Speaker 3: fact that the AI companies have been doing vendor financing,
14:17
Speaker 3: where you know, one company gives another one one hundred
14:21
Speaker 3: billion dollars and the other one promises to buy one
14:23
Speaker 3: hundred dollars worth of chips from the first company. That's
14:26
Speaker 3: the kind of thing that eventually blows up in your face, too,
14:28
Speaker 3: because it works as long as everybody can make good
14:33
Speaker 3: on their debts through this whole daisy chain of you know,
14:37
Speaker 3: one huge amount of money just flowing around and around,
14:40
Speaker 3: and let one of them collapse, which statistically, you got
14:45
Speaker 3: to figure some AI company is going to blow up
14:47
Speaker 3: at some point, and then that takes the whole rest
14:50
Speaker 3: of the thing down. And the AA companies are basically
14:52
Speaker 3: what's supporting the NASDAC, which in turn is what's supporting
14:56
Speaker 3: the American economy right now. So we're in brave danger
15:02
Speaker 3: of some domino in one of these sectors starting to
15:06
Speaker 3: fall and knocking down a bunch of the other ones.
15:09
Speaker 3: And you know, I would remind people that in two
15:12
Speaker 3: thousand and six and two thousand and seven, the economy
15:15
Speaker 3: seemed fine. You know, it seemed like we were growing
15:18
Speaker 3: and a lot of finance stocks were going up still
15:22
Speaker 3: and everything, and then within a couple of years they
15:24
Speaker 3: had all collapsed. And you know, it feels like we're
15:28
Speaker 3: in one of those those places now where yeah, there's
15:32
Speaker 3: lots of activity taking place that increases GDP, but a
15:39
Speaker 3: lot of it is financed with bad paper, and that
15:43
Speaker 3: bad paper is starting to go really bad right now,
15:47
Speaker 3: and if it continues, we're in two thousand and seven again,
15:52
Speaker 3: only on a much bigger, much scarier scale. So you know,
15:56
Speaker 3: I think it's time for caution in investing right now.
15:59
Speaker 3: Don't be buying growth. Even if you know, we end
16:02
Speaker 3: the war and the stock market goes up for a
16:04
Speaker 3: little while longer, we've still got all this other stuff
16:06
Speaker 3: going on that, even in the absence of another Middle
16:11
Speaker 3: Eastern war, could cause the next recession, the next equities
16:16
Speaker 3: bear market, And you know, you don't want to be
16:19
Speaker 3: in front of something like that when it happens. You know,
16:22
Speaker 3: you want to be off to the side with real
16:25
Speaker 3: assets like commodities that aren't as directly affected by this
16:29
Speaker 3: stuff and just leave the government bonds and the bank
16:34
Speaker 3: stocks and the tech stocks to the people who are
16:37
Speaker 3: willing to gamble on them.
16:40
Speaker 2: You know, it's interesting because the thing about two thousand
16:44
Speaker 2: and seven, all that real estate, those were real people
16:49
Speaker 2: out there, and you know, you saw the foreclosures, you
16:53
Speaker 2: saw people being kicked out of their homes. That that
16:58
Speaker 2: was visible, and it set the tone for the economy
17:02
Speaker 2: and the eventual economic implosion that took place. And I'm
17:06
Speaker 2: not being a hyperbolic there, it was an implosion, and
17:12
Speaker 2: eventually the FED built everybody out. This case, it's opaque, right,
17:18
Speaker 2: You don't really know who's blowing up and how much
17:21
Speaker 2: they're on the line for. We see the indirect results
17:25
Speaker 2: by these Blackstone and black Rock and Blue whatever it is.
17:31
Speaker 2: I can't remember Blue Angel funds gating, but we don't
17:35
Speaker 2: really see what's happening behind the scenes. So the bailout
17:39
Speaker 2: when it takes place, and I believe it's going to
17:41
Speaker 2: take place, going to happen behind the scenes, you'll never
17:45
Speaker 2: even know about it. In fact, I would venture to
17:48
Speaker 2: say it's probably already happened. The checks have been written,
17:52
Speaker 2: the FED has done backdoor bailouts or is in the process.
17:56
Speaker 2: And that's another reason you have to get rid of
17:59
Speaker 2: Jerome Powell, because let him take all the heat, do
18:03
Speaker 2: all the bailouts, and then you bring in your new
18:05
Speaker 2: guy and he's got a clean slate. Right.
18:09
Speaker 3: Well, maybe, but the shadow banking system today is so
18:14
Speaker 3: much bigger and in a lot more opaque than the
18:19
Speaker 3: subprime mortgage market was back in two thousand and seven.
18:23
Speaker 3: So there's just a lot of bad paper out there
18:26
Speaker 3: right now, and you could easily see a panic out
18:30
Speaker 3: of this sector if just a couple more things go
18:33
Speaker 3: bad because several big name entities in that sector. I
18:38
Speaker 3: hadn't heard of him before, but several of these guys
18:42
Speaker 3: who are actually major players, have had trouble in the
18:46
Speaker 3: last year. And that's the kind of thing that makes
18:49
Speaker 3: you think, well, who's next. If this big name over
18:52
Speaker 3: here can have a flagship fund that just implodes like that,
18:58
Speaker 3: then who else is next? I want to be involved
19:01
Speaker 3: with any of them. You could see a stampeach of
19:02
Speaker 3: the exits and see that the FED has been doing
19:07
Speaker 3: bailouts since the late nineteen nineties and yeah, yeah, long
19:13
Speaker 3: term capital of Russia, the Asian Tiger Tigers Mexico. That
19:19
Speaker 3: all took place in the late nineteen nineties, and that's
19:22
Speaker 3: what convinced the banks that they could behave like hedge
19:26
Speaker 3: funds because they could take any risk, book all the
19:30
Speaker 3: fees from those risks, and then if the risks went bad,
19:32
Speaker 3: the FED would bail them out. And that's how it
19:34
Speaker 3: worked out. But now, I mean, we're talking about very
19:39
Speaker 3: big numbers. We're talking about a government with in the
19:44
Speaker 3: US's case, debt one hundred and twenty percent of GDP,
19:49
Speaker 3: deficits that are exceeding six percent of GDP per year,
19:54
Speaker 3: and interest costs on that debt that just hit one
19:57
Speaker 3: point two trillion and are continuing to raw. So it's
20:01
Speaker 3: not going to be easy to sell a major bailout
20:05
Speaker 3: of something, as you know, as disreputable as the shadow
20:09
Speaker 3: banking system would do taxpayers want private equity to get
20:13
Speaker 3: their money, I would assume not, you know, once we
20:16
Speaker 3: figured out where the money was going, those kinds of
20:19
Speaker 3: bailouts would be catastrophically unpopular. And remember in the US,
20:25
Speaker 3: there's always another election coming up. You know, we're we're
20:27
Speaker 3: in a campaign continuously, and so you know, let let
20:32
Speaker 3: that happen and let people actually understand what kind of
20:35
Speaker 3: bailouts are being done right now, and I don't think
20:38
Speaker 3: it works politically, so we'll we'll see. But I mean, financially,
20:42
Speaker 3: obviously there's a crisis coming, but politically there could be
20:45
Speaker 3: a major resime regime change if we start publicly bailing
20:53
Speaker 3: out these opaque, shadowy companies that you know, barely even
20:57
Speaker 3: deserve to exist, let alone to suck up a bunch
21:00
Speaker 3: of taxpayer money.
21:03
Speaker 2: You know. But does the American public ever really learn John.
21:13
Speaker 3: They haven't so far. I'll grant your or you know,
21:15
Speaker 3: you could you could say Trump, President Trump was a
21:18
Speaker 3: sign that we have learned some important lessons, you know,
21:21
Speaker 3: because we we we voted against the establishment candidates in
21:26
Speaker 3: both parties, and the fact that Trump has kind of
21:29
Speaker 3: betrayed a lot of promises maybe just accelerates the learning
21:34
Speaker 3: process for a big chunk of the populace. So it
21:37
Speaker 3: could be that we're not stupid going forward the way
21:43
Speaker 3: we have been in the past, and maybe one of
21:46
Speaker 3: the ways in which we demonstrate that we're learning is
21:50
Speaker 3: by opposing these kinds of bailouts. You know, just let them,
21:54
Speaker 3: let them go bust. Who cares if Black Rock or
21:58
Speaker 3: Blackstone cease to exists. You know, if both of them, say,
22:02
Speaker 3: I don't even really know which one is which in
22:04
Speaker 3: this conversation, but if they both disappeared, would that change
22:08
Speaker 3: the amount of farmland that we have? Would it change
22:12
Speaker 3: the amount of hospitals or scientists or anything like that. Now,
22:18
Speaker 3: we'd have basically the same economy that we had before
22:21
Speaker 3: they cease to exist. There would just be a lot
22:23
Speaker 3: of bad paper going bust and kind of illicit companies
22:29
Speaker 3: ceasing to exist. But I would argue that that would
22:32
Speaker 3: be an improvement. You know, if back in two thousand
22:36
Speaker 3: and eight, two thousand and nine Goldman Sacks died just vaporized,
22:41
Speaker 3: we'd be in way better shape today than we are, because,
22:45
Speaker 3: first of all, we'd have all the same stuff, all
22:47
Speaker 3: the same productive assets. But we would have learned an
22:50
Speaker 3: important lesson. And the banks of the world, seeing Goldman
22:53
Speaker 3: Sacks cease to exist, would know that they have to
22:56
Speaker 3: be more cautious, and they, you know, they have to
23:00
Speaker 3: only lend to productive uses, not just paper games. And
23:04
Speaker 3: so I think we'd be a more healthy world. So
23:06
Speaker 3: this is a chance again to let capitalism actually work
23:10
Speaker 3: and let some big companies go bankrupt. To teach lessons
23:14
Speaker 3: to the rest of the companies. So you know, I think,
23:18
Speaker 3: you know, mass bankruptcies right now would be the best
23:21
Speaker 3: thing that could happen to us, because it would pull
23:23
Speaker 3: us back from the brink of the financial crisis that
23:26
Speaker 3: we're engineering.
23:29
Speaker 2: I agree with you in principle, but the reality is
23:33
Speaker 2: we'd have thirty million people out of work almost overnight, and.
23:38
Speaker 3: So bail them out, you know, bail out their bank
23:41
Speaker 3: anceltil I that Iceland did. It could easily work that way.
23:46
Speaker 3: I mean, take the money that we would have given
23:48
Speaker 3: to Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase, give it to homeowners,
23:52
Speaker 3: give it to people whose paychecks are temporarily not coming in.
23:57
Speaker 3: You know, if we were going to do it, do
23:59
Speaker 3: it that way, and then jail the bankers who blew
24:04
Speaker 3: up their companies. That's what Iceland did. You know, they
24:07
Speaker 3: responded to the to the financial crisis of two thousand
24:11
Speaker 3: and eight two thousand and nine completely differently. They protected
24:15
Speaker 3: bank depositors and they jailed the bankers who almost blew
24:21
Speaker 3: up their economy. You know, we should have done that here,
24:24
Speaker 3: and we have a chance to do it again now.
24:26
Speaker 2: Well we will, and we keep getting these chances and
24:29
Speaker 2: we keep blowing it right, all right, so other interesting
24:36
Speaker 2: items going around. I think this credit bust is really
24:40
Speaker 2: what's underpinning a lot of the uncertainty of the markets.
24:45
Speaker 2: I wrote an article I want to get your take
24:47
Speaker 2: on it. Silver, all right, It is the most important
24:52
Speaker 2: industrial metal that we're worrying about right now, and basically
24:57
Speaker 2: every country in the world is putting it on the
25:00
Speaker 2: critical minerals list. Do you foresee the day when there's
25:03
Speaker 2: unrest in Mexico that the US marches in at least
25:07
Speaker 2: to stabilize the three major silver producing states there.
25:15
Speaker 3: Well, see that that would actually be almost justified, you know,
25:19
Speaker 3: because it wouldn't be a regime change war. It would
25:22
Speaker 3: be just US stabilizing the supply of something that's crucial
25:27
Speaker 3: to the global economy. And if we did it, you know,
25:31
Speaker 3: if we went in and we just put a ring
25:33
Speaker 3: of soldiers around the mines that were being threatened by
25:36
Speaker 3: the cartels or whatever, you know, you could make a
25:41
Speaker 3: case that that is a necessary thing, because it's going
25:46
Speaker 3: to happen.
25:47
Speaker 2: I'm telling you it is going to happen because at
25:52
Speaker 2: least under Trump, he gets that silver is the most
25:55
Speaker 2: important medals. You know that it's crucial to the global
26:02
Speaker 2: economy and to the US economy. Twenty five percent of
26:05
Speaker 2: the world's silver is produced by Mexico, and we've even
26:10
Speaker 2: done a critical Metal and Resource integration agreement with the
26:17
Speaker 2: Mexican government. Now, it doesn't, specifically in terms of the
26:20
Speaker 2: terms that have been published, actually give the United States
26:23
Speaker 2: the right to jump in and blow up cartels. But
26:28
Speaker 2: we have a rich history of invading Mexico when the
26:32
Speaker 2: United States perceives that its interests are at risk, whether
26:36
Speaker 2: it's bank loans, whether it's Pancho Villa. We've got in
26:41
Speaker 2: there fifteen times under various guises over the years. Now,
26:46
Speaker 2: granted we haven't done it since the early nineteen hundreds,
26:50
Speaker 2: but we haven't had the Trump Teddy Roosevelt here either.
26:55
Speaker 2: You know, like Trump, if you get the feeling that
26:59
Speaker 2: if he felt there was a reason to clear out
27:03
Speaker 2: those provinces of Mexico, he would do it.
27:07
Speaker 3: Yeah, very possible. You know. The whole Mexico thing is
27:10
Speaker 3: is complex and interesting too, because, first of all, the
27:14
Speaker 3: the cartels basically control the Mexican government. That's obvious from
27:21
Speaker 3: the way the people in charge of the Mexican government speak.
27:26
Speaker 3: But the cartels exist basically because of US demand for
27:30
Speaker 3: what they're selling. So you can make the case that
27:33
Speaker 3: that Mexico is under the thumb of the cartels because
27:36
Speaker 3: of US behavior. You know, we didn't have to have
27:40
Speaker 3: a wide open border that made the cartels billions of
27:43
Speaker 3: dollars of trafficking people here, and we buy the drugs
27:47
Speaker 3: that the cartels sell here. So, you know, I think
27:52
Speaker 3: if we're going to get involved in Mexico, it should
27:55
Speaker 3: be part of something that's coherent, comprehensive, where we look
27:58
Speaker 3: at why the cartels are making billions of dollars and
28:02
Speaker 3: we do something about that too. So it would be
28:05
Speaker 3: nice if it was if it was a you know,
28:09
Speaker 3: coherent program that gets at the source of the trouble,
28:14
Speaker 3: And that would be interesting if we if we tried
28:16
Speaker 3: something like that, you know, I would I would vote
28:21
Speaker 3: for people who are willing to consider it, even if
28:27
Speaker 3: it turns out to be a really hard thing to do,
28:29
Speaker 3: which it would.
28:29
Speaker 2: Be exact, Well, we've done it before, it'll happen again.
28:36
Speaker 2: What do you think what's happened? What about what's happened
28:38
Speaker 2: with Venezuela. Basically, I don't know how Marco Rubio can
28:43
Speaker 2: be the Secretary of State. He's running Venezuela now, he's
28:48
Speaker 2: effectively going to be running Cuba if he isn't already,
28:52
Speaker 2: And pretty soon I think he'll be in charge of Iram.
28:55
Speaker 2: Like he's got more balls in the air than Trump does. Here.
28:59
Speaker 2: How do you run three countries?
29:01
Speaker 3: Well, you know, we come back to the promise that
29:04
Speaker 3: they wouldn't do regime change wars. First of all, you know,
29:07
Speaker 3: if we could, we could manage those countries by leaving
29:10
Speaker 3: them alone. Cuba is not a threat to anybody. And Venezuela, Venezuela,
29:19
Speaker 3: you know, they had a socialist government, was basically just
29:22
Speaker 3: this corrupt, you know, bunch of families that yeah, you know,
29:29
Speaker 3: they they weren't actually a threat to their neighbors or
29:33
Speaker 3: certainly not to us or anything. You don't see. I mean,
29:36
Speaker 3: obviously we let a bunch of we would let a
29:40
Speaker 3: bunch of quote unquote refugees in from Venezuela when the
29:44
Speaker 3: borders were wide open, and we should round them up
29:46
Speaker 3: and put them back in their original country. But you know,
29:50
Speaker 3: invading these countries, why why why are we doing that?
29:53
Speaker 3: And what why do we think that that is a
29:57
Speaker 3: thing that makes more friends for a in the region,
30:01
Speaker 3: because anybody who looks at what just happened in Venezuela
30:04
Speaker 3: and what is liable to happen in Cuba is thinking, wow,
30:07
Speaker 3: are we next? You know, is the CIA coming down
30:10
Speaker 3: here and staging another coup?
30:13
Speaker 2: But Cuba honestly is collapsing of its own weight. Yeah,
30:17
Speaker 2: there's a blockade and all that, But that country, I've
30:21
Speaker 2: been there twice. It reminds me of Italy in the
30:24
Speaker 2: nineteen seventies. Nothing in the entire country works. It wasn't
30:29
Speaker 2: that bad, but Italy was close. Remember you'd go to Italy,
30:33
Speaker 2: you pick up a phone and you wait five minutes
30:35
Speaker 2: for a dial tone, back when we had landlines. Do
30:38
Speaker 2: you remember that I was.
30:40
Speaker 3: There for stuff like that.
30:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, I remember.
30:43
Speaker 3: But communism is kind of self correcting in the sense
30:49
Speaker 3: that communist countries fail and then they start over and
30:53
Speaker 3: they're a lot more open to capitalism and democracy and
30:58
Speaker 3: relatively free markets like that. So you know, they go
31:01
Speaker 3: to the Vietnam route. The communists took over Vietnam a
31:05
Speaker 3: couple of decades later. They're a capitalist country who looked
31:08
Speaker 3: to the US as the model, you know, and the
31:11
Speaker 3: same thing would happen in Venezuela and Cuba if we
31:15
Speaker 3: just left them alone. You know, by by creating this
31:18
Speaker 3: gigantic enemy, it strengthens the communist dictatorships because they're able
31:25
Speaker 3: to point to the US and say, look at this
31:27
Speaker 3: monster that's trying to kill us all, you know, and
31:30
Speaker 3: keep us in power so we can protect you. You know,
31:33
Speaker 3: you take that away and then they go through the
31:36
Speaker 3: normal progression of an economic collapse followed by some kind
31:41
Speaker 3: of political revolution, followed by probably a better system. So yeah,
31:47
Speaker 3: I don't know the funny, I feel betrayed by the MAGA.
31:53
Speaker 3: We're not gonna do regime change. Who was anymore?
31:58
Speaker 2: Think funny you mentioned v Vietnam because I was there,
32:01
Speaker 2: you know, six months ago, and the flag is disturbing
32:06
Speaker 2: because it's still got it's a red flag with stars
32:09
Speaker 2: and a hammer and sickle. But it is the most
32:12
Speaker 2: like westernized country in Asia. I think in many ways
32:16
Speaker 2: it runs far better than Thailand does and other countries there,
32:22
Speaker 2: and you know, they're just the basically just trying to
32:27
Speaker 2: make it. But inflation has like killed that country too.
32:31
Speaker 2: The dong is twenty six thousand Vietnamese dong to the dollar,
32:36
Speaker 2: and I had a tour guide and he was just
32:39
Speaker 2: crying that he couldn't make a decent living even though
32:42
Speaker 2: he was a sales rep for a medical device company.
32:46
Speaker 2: You know something here, You can make a really good
32:48
Speaker 2: living at it if you're good. But well, I think
32:53
Speaker 2: we're gonna have to sit back, see what happens, see
32:56
Speaker 2: if there really is a plan, and how soon it's
33:00
Speaker 2: going to be. But we've basically just taken the seventh
33:03
Speaker 2: inning stretched away I see it. Anyway, Look read John's
33:08
Speaker 2: work Rabino dot substack dot com. I'm at Kerrie Lutz
33:12
Speaker 2: dot com, Financial Survival Network dot com. We will pick
33:16
Speaker 2: up this discussion in a few weeks, John, and we'll
33:19
Speaker 2: see how this thing shapes up.
33:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, hopefully it shapes out, shapes up really well.
33:25
Speaker 2: OK.
33:26
Speaker 3: I look forward to more optimistic talk next time.
33:31
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, hey, as they say, it ain't over until
33:34
Speaker 2: it's over until the fat lady has sung. And unfortunately
33:39
Speaker 2: the genie is out of the toothpaste tube. So we're
33:42
Speaker 2: just going to have to see. By the way, the
33:44
Speaker 2: book has been published, America's Great Parking Scam You've Been Robbed,
33:50
Speaker 2: done a couple of media presentations on it, and They've
33:55
Speaker 2: gotten over one hundred thousand views for a local parking
33:58
Speaker 2: ticket story. That's a big deal. I'm in court with
34:01
Speaker 2: these guys. I can tell you stories about Florida lawyers,
34:07
Speaker 2: but I'll refrain. I don't want to do a victory
34:11
Speaker 2: lap before it's time. But the lawsuit's going. I'll give
34:15
Speaker 2: you updates. John, thanks for being here and we will
34:18
Speaker 2: talk with you again soon.
34:20
Speaker 1: Thanks Carrie Sea, thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial
34:24
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34:29
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34:35
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