Latest / The Overlap / Japan Ruined America: We Can Fix It!
Transcript
- 0:00My wife and I just got back from two weeks in Japan for our tenth anniversary.
- 0:05We're a two income household with no kids and we chose that partly
- 0:10so we could afford trips like this one.
- 0:12It also helped that the yen is weak right now.
- 0:14So our dollars actually went further than they'll likely ever go in the future.
- 0:17That weak yen is one of Japan's real problems,
- 0:21and I'll get to it, but it's part of why we went now instead of,
- 0:26you know, someday. So I'm not broke and I'm not rich.
- 0:30I've worked since I was sixteen for what I have,
- 0:32and we took this trip for our tenth wedding anniversary.
- 0:35So that makes two things that will only happen once in a lifetime.
- 0:39I also know one bad diagnosis could take most of everything that we've worked for,
- 0:43and that goes for almost everyone I know.
- 0:45Somewhere in Japan I noticed I'd stopped carrying that feeling around.
- 0:50Japan felt light years ahead of us,
- 0:52and the technology had very little to do with it.
- 0:55Trains ran to the minute, and if you missed one,
- 0:59another one came in four minutes.
- 1:00The streets were clean and walkable,
- 1:03and public spaces felt like they belonged to everyone.
- 1:07A hospital bill there doesn't end up in bankruptcy because everyone
- 1:12is covered and what you pay out of pocket is capped.
- 1:14None of that is an accident. For decades,
- 1:18Japan put public money into rail,
- 1:20transit, and healthcare, education,
- 1:23and paid for them by keeping the people at the top paying their share.
- 1:29They invested in their people.
- 1:30We let the market decide who gets a train,
- 1:34a doctor, a decent education.
- 1:36And a livable wage. Then I flew home.
- 1:39And the first thing America handed me was Gate 52H at LAX,
- 1:44a symbolic reminder of how little we are cared about by the corporations
- 1:49who run our commercial airlines and who are starting to run our country.
- 1:53Japan has real problems of its own,
- 1:56but it decided a long time ago that its people were worth investing in.
- 2:01We made the opposite decision in 1981.
- 2:05And I want to show you what it cost.
- 2:29Hey and welcome back. This is The Overlap,
- 2:31and I am Joshua. If you're new here,
- 2:33welcome. We talk about the United States of America,
- 2:36labor, social issues, and systemic problems in our government.
- 2:40With a side of revealing the odd stuff that we grew up inside
- 2:44of without realizing how strange they actually are.
- 2:47If you've been around a bit, you know that I usually record with my intelligent,
- 2:51dad-funny co-host William. I asked William to do this as a solo episode because
- 2:56I have been
- 2:57processing this since the day I arrived in Japan with a lot
- 3:01of thoughts and feelings, but also so that he could have plausible deniability
- 3:05if I managed to start a movement or something.
- 3:07So, like I said, I just got back from Japan and the first thing America handed
- 3:12me was Gate 52H at LAX.
- 3:14This is a cramped basement room where you have to arrive by bus from
- 3:19a regular terminal, terminal four.
- 3:22It takes about 15 minutes to get there while your transport driver dodges planes
- 3:25landing and food trucks refilling and fuel trucks zooming about.
- 3:29But when you get off the bus, you're loudly escorted into the remote terminal.
- 3:34It's hot. There's like a grab and go counter with a $22 breakfast sandwich.
- 3:41And you have to walk across a hot tarmac to climb stairs onto a regional jet.
- 3:46It's been like that for years.
- 3:47Nobody in charge seems to think it's a problem.
- 3:50But in Japan, things just worked.
- 3:52Trains ran to the minute. If you missed it,
- 3:55there was one four minutes away.
- 3:56Public spaces felt like they belonged to everyone.
- 4:00I didn't feel the constant low grade pressure I feel here.
- 4:04The sense that everything is a is a fight over scraps and we're
- 4:07one hospital bill away from losing everything that we've scraped and saved for.
- 4:12Look, Japan has its own serious problems.
- 4:14That's not really a hedge or to sort of somehow soften the blow here.
- 4:19There are real issues in Japan.
- 4:20They have massive public debt,
- 4:22an aging crisis, declining birth rates,
- 4:25weakening yen, and ever increasing import costs,
- 4:29labor shortages, gender inequality.
- 4:31Not to mention, they're facing an increasingly assertive China,
- 4:35North Korea's nuclear program,
- 4:37and regional tensions. Japan is aggressively expanding its defense spending,
- 4:42testing the limits of its pacifist post-World War II constitution.
- 4:46And those are all very real and very present.
- 4:49But Japan still managed to prove something to me.
- 4:52A country can decide that its people are worth investing in.
- 4:57Ours decided otherwise. And I'm tired of pretending that was an accident,
- 5:01just a creeping failure that just so happened over time without us realizing it,
- 5:06like microplastics in the water.
- 5:08The turn came in 1981. And I'm not the only one that feels this way.
- 5:14Reagan cut the top income tax rate from 70% to twenty eight percent over
- 5:20his two terms, and he fired more than eleven thousand striking
- 5:24air traffic controllers, telling every employer in the country that breaking
- 5:28a union was fair game. Private sector union membership has since fallen
- 5:33to about six percent. The idea underneath all of it was simple.
- 5:38Government is the problem, and the market will take care of the rest.
- 5:43Public investment became something to cut,
- 5:45not something to build with. And it worked because it convinced
- 5:49the middle class that they were closer to rich than they were to broke.
- 5:53The post-1981 sales pitch got working people to cut off their feet
- 5:58to benefit their scalp. They voted against their own health care,
- 6:03wages, and unions to protect fortunes they didn't have and were never going to get.
- 6:08The data shows how badly we were all fooled.
- 6:12Harvard economists Alberto Alesina,
- 6:14Stefanie Stantcheva, and Edoardo Teso found in 2018 that Americans
- 6:20consistently overestimate how likely a poor kid is to climb to the top.
- 6:26The more they believe they'll get rich,
- 6:29the less they want to tax the rich because they picture themselves paying that taxes
- 6:35someday. And the real odds are brutal,
- 6:37actually. Raj Chetty's research
- 6:40found that a child born to the bottom fifth of American incomes
- 6:45has about a 7.5% chance of reaching the top fifth.
- 6:51That's the top 20%. In Charlotte and Atlanta,
- 6:56it's under 5%. The chances of winning a lottery are only barely improved
- 7:02by buying a ticket. And the American dream works about the same way.
- 7:06I am not a Democrat.
- 7:09So I'm not gonna let them off the hook here,
- 7:11right? Clinton signed NAFTA, he gutted welfare,
- 7:14he helped repeal Glass-Steagall.
- 7:16Obama bailed out the banks while millions of families lost their homes.
- 7:20Both parties have spent 40 years managing the decline Reagan started instead
- 7:26of reversing it. This is not about blue versus red.
- 7:30This is not team sports. Since 1981,
- 7:34the US
- 7:35has largely treated public infrastructure as like a secondary priority,
- 7:39allowing critical networks to just sort of erode and crumble,
- 7:43which is what happens when you have to cut the budget due to a shifting
- 7:47tax burden to the wage earners.
- 7:49Under Reagan, the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 slashed the
- 7:54top marginal income tax rate from 70% to 50%,
- 7:59followed by the Tax Reform Act of 1986,
- 8:03which reduced the top statutory rate directly down to 28%,
- 8:08with a 33% effective bubble bracket.
- 8:12As federal tax receipts contracted relative to economic growth,
- 8:16Washington systematically reallocated its discretionary capital away from public
- 8:22works. According to the Congressional Budget Office,
- 8:25CBO data.
- 8:27Overall federal investment as a percentage of GDP plummeted from over 6%
- 8:33in the late 60s down to about 2.4% by the late 2010s.
- 8:38Direct federal spending on transportation and water infrastructure stagnated
- 8:44at a sparse 0.6%, that is six-tenths of 1% of the
- 8:50GDP over recent decades, leaving American highways,
- 8:53rail systems, and water mains in a state of chronic
- 8:57deferred maintenance. Across the Pacific,
- 8:59Japan pursued a starkly divergent post-1981 trajectory.
- 9:05They chose to maintain high top tax rates on upper earners to fund
- 9:10a world-class public infrastructure state.
- 9:13In 1988, when our top rate dropped to 28%,
- 9:18Japan's was still 60%, and it stayed at 50%.
- 9:22After that, while consistently leaning on state-directed capital
- 9:27to stabilize its economy, Japan routinely directed between 4% and 6%
- 9:33of its annual GDP into public infrastructure during the 80s and the 90s,
- 9:38nearly double to triple the relative American allocation.
- 9:43While American commuters navigated potholed interstates and legacy rail networks
- 9:48starved of public tax revenue.
- 9:51Japan deployed its tax capital to construct nationwide Shinkansen bullet train
- 9:56networks and modern transit hubs.
- 9:59The two models reveal contrasting national trade-offs,
- 10:03the U.S. prioritizing top tax bracket tax relief over federal physical assets,
- 10:09and Japan using sustained public revenue to establish
- 10:13a globally competitive transport ecosystem.
- 10:17So who pulled up the ladder? I I get accused often of blaming everything
- 10:22on the boomers and everything on Gen X,
- 10:25but Boomers and Gen X came of age in the most prosperous stretch
- 10:31in American history, not by a little.
- 10:33A lot of them bought homes when one income could pay for one.
- 10:37They went to college when tuition was just a summer job away.
- 10:41And they retired on pensions that generations to come will never see.
- 10:46Not all of them. Plenty of boomers lost their homes in 2008
- 10:52or watched their pensions get cut.
- 10:54Most of Gen X got a 401k instead of a pension,
- 10:57and the 2008 crash hit them right in the middle of their careers.
- 11:02That's you. You got squeezed too.
- 11:04Look, and nothing I'm about to say is about you.
- 11:07This is about what people did once they got theirs.
- 11:10As many of them built wealth, they voted to keep it.
- 11:14Tax cuts, deregulation,
- 11:17and less public investment for whoever came next.
- 11:21I don't know if that's a is that supposed to be a whomever?
- 11:24Whatever. A Financial Times analysis of US and UK elections
- 11:29found both generations moved right as they hit middle age and Gen
- 11:33X followed the boomers almost step for step once they reached 45.
- 11:37If you got the house, the cheap tuition,
- 11:40the pension, and then voted against those same things for the people behind you,
- 11:45that's what pulling up the ladder means.
- 11:48Most people who did it never really thought of it that way.
- 11:51And I get it, like I understand when you've worked that hard for something,
- 11:55protecting it, well, that just feels like common sense.
- 11:58But the results show up in the numbers.
- 12:00That economist Raj Chetty, I was talking about,
- 12:03found that 90% of Americans born in 1940 out earned their parents.
- 12:09For those born in the 80s, it's closer to half.
- 12:13The promise that every generation does better than the last just stopped being true
- 12:19for us. Millennials and Gen Z got the bill. At 35,
- 12:24Millennials are about 15 points conservative than boomers and Gen X were
- 12:29at the same age. The least conservative 35-year-olds on record.
- 12:33Now I'm, you know, 42, but 35 is right in the middle of that millennial stretch
- 12:39there. We just never built the kind of wealth that makes protecting it feel like
- 12:44the most important thing on the ballot.
- 12:46And Gen Z women see it too. In NBC's April 2025 poll,
- 12:5153% of women
- 12:53in Gen Z call themselves Democrats.
- 12:56Gen Z men are a completely different story.
- 12:59Only 35% said the same thing.
- 13:03And their approval of Trump ran nearly double that of the young women.
- 13:09Gallup now puts the ideological gap between young men and women at five times what
- 13:15it was in 2000. Those young men aren't shifting right because they got rich,
- 13:20they're broke.
- 13:21And they're alone. Gallup found that 25% of American men between 15
- 13:26and 34 felt lonely a lot of the previous day.
- 13:30That's higher in every other developed country except Turkey.
- 13:35And no other country in the OECD has a bigger gap between how lonely
- 13:40its young men are and how everyone else feels.
- 13:43They're angry about an economy that stopped working for them and they're right to be.
- 13:47Only one side showed up and gave them an explanation.
- 13:51So here's what we're gonna do.
- 13:52And I'm asking you to do it too.
- 13:54Stop telling them what's wrong with them.
- 13:57Tell them they're right. They were promised the deal their dads got,
- 14:01and somebody took it. Then get specific about what they'd get:
- 14:05a wage that can buy a house, a union contract that means you can't be fired
- 14:10for no reason, and healthcare that doesn't depend on keeping a job that they hate.
- 14:15And go where they already are:
- 14:17the job site, the trade school,
- 14:18the gym, the union hall.
- 14:20Instead of waiting for them to come and find us.
- 14:22If you're one of those guys and you're listening to this,
- 14:24I'm not going to tell you that you're wrong to be angry.
- 14:27You should be pissed. I just want you to be angry at the people
- 14:30who actually took the money from you,
- 14:32the ones at the top who got richer the whole time that you got squeezed.
- 14:36And every time someone says tax the rich,
- 14:39somebody in the middle hears, they're coming for my stuff.
- 14:42I get it. For 40 years, every promise to tax the top
- 14:48ended with the middle holding the bill.
- 14:50I've worked since I was 16 for what I have,
- 14:52and nobody's going to take that from me.
- 14:54So let's look at who would actually pay.
- 14:57Elizabeth Warren's wealth tax started at $50 million.
- 15:02That's about 75,000 households out of 130 million households in the United States.
- 15:07We have about 340 million people.
- 15:10It makes sense, that's around 130 million households.
- 15:13That's less than a tenth of 1% of this country.
- 15:16If you check your bank balance before you buy groceries,
- 15:19that's not you. If you own your house,
- 15:23max out your 401k and drive a paid-off truck,
- 15:26still is not you. You would still pay nothing new,
- 15:30not one dime. Now look at what you're already paying.
- 15:33Your family health plan costs about $27,000 a year.
- 15:38Your share is about $7,000 of that.
- 15:41And that's before the deductible even starts.
- 15:43A new car costs you about twelve thousand nine hundred dollars a year to own.
- 15:49And in most of this country, you don't get to say no.
- 15:53The average student borrower owes almost $40,000,
- 15:57and that number has never been higher.
- 16:00Those are taxes. They're just not paid to the government.
- 16:03You pay them to insurance companies,
- 16:05you pay them to banks, to toll authorities.
- 16:08And nobody ever asks you to vote on how much they'd be taxing you.
- 16:12Japan spends about a third as much per person on healthcare as we do.
- 16:16It covers every single person.
- 16:18And they live about five years longer than we do.
- 16:21Nobody in Japan loses their house over a cancer diagnosis.
- 16:25We pay three times as much to die younger and go broke on the way out.
- 16:31And somebody is getting rich off of that difference.
- 16:34A good train doesn't take anything from the guy who drives,
- 16:37right? Toko, Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka,
- 16:40and Hakone were full of people driving cars.
- 16:43They just weren't forced to. Investing in each other isn't like this zero-sum game.
- 16:50Anyone who tells you it has, like,
- 16:52has a, I guess, a really big bank account they'd rather you didn't look at.
- 16:57So, what that looks like up close,
- 16:59of course, here in Oklahoma, the Oklahoma Turnpike Authority announced ACCESS
- 17:03Oklahoma in 2022. That's a $5 billion plan for new toll roads through Norman
- 17:09and Cleveland County. Now they put these right past people's homes
- 17:13and right up against Lake Thunderbird.
- 17:15The agenda item that set it in motion called it,
- 17:19quote, certain turnpike projects and quote,
- 17:22SP65.
- 17:24Nearly two hundred residents sued under the Open Meetings Act because nobody could
- 17:28tell from those agendas what was coming.
- 17:31Then this year, lawmakers named a planned connector after Toby Keith,
- 17:36a man who literally opposed the project and joined a lawsuit against it.
- 17:41I used to be a Toby Keith fan.
- 17:44Don't really care much for his opinions or politics,
- 17:48but he did oppose the turnpike,
- 17:51and they named it after him anyway.
- 17:53There's lots of rumors. They say his kids made the decision,
- 17:56whatever. I think there's some money that exchanged hands.
- 17:59I don't really know the details of it all.
- 18:01But that's not infrastructure for people.
- 18:04It's infrastructure done to people by an authority that answers mostly
- 18:09to bondholders, not to the people who actually live here.
- 18:12Compare what we could build. Spain and Italy.
- 18:17Keep their rail lines in public hands,
- 18:19public ownership, and let multiple companies compete to run trains on them.
- 18:24When Spain opened Madrid to Barcelona to competitors in 2021,
- 18:30the actual fares of riding those trains fell.
- 18:33And within a year, more people were riding them before the pandemic.
- 18:37Tracks owned by the people, trains run for comfort and price.
- 18:42We know how to do this.
- 18:44We choose toll roads and bonds instead,
- 18:47selling our natural resources to the highest bidders.
- 18:49Now I've heard the opposition,
- 18:51they say, America is just too big for this.
- 18:54Japan is a small country. They're wrong.
- 18:56Japan is a small nation. I I'm not gonna,
- 18:59you know, pretend that it's not.
- 19:00It's it's much smaller than the United States,
- 19:02but nobody rides a train from Maine to California,
- 19:05right? High speed rail works one section,
- 19:09one one metro at a time.
- 19:12And we have plenty that match Japan's.
- 19:14Tokyo to Osaka is about 320 miles.
- 19:17Los Angeles to San Francisco, Chicago to St.
- 19:20Louis, Dallas to Houston are all in that range or shorter.
- 19:24Boston to Washington holds about as many people as Japan's busiest rail corridor.
- 19:29Then China comes in and completely lambastes the argument because it's about
- 19:34the size of the US.
- 19:36And they have built more than 45,000 kilometers.
- 19:39That's 28,000 miles in freedom units,
- 19:42which is about 3,800 miles or so longer than the equator
- 19:48of the earth of high-speed rail in roughly 15 years.
- 19:53That means China has built more than the rest of the world combined.
- 19:59And size really has nothing to do with healthcare or schools.
- 20:03Canada and Australia are enormous and they're incredibly sparsely populated,
- 20:08and both guarantee healthcare to everyone.
- 20:10"We're too big" was never a reason.
- 20:12It was just an excuse for deciding not to.
- 20:15And underneath all of it is the fear most of us carry that one bad diagnosis
- 20:21or a few unemployed months means not affording food or care.
- 20:26That is not a personal failing,
- 20:28it's a policy outcome.
- 20:30So what we have to do is we have to fix the foundation of this first.
- 20:33We have to put the partisan fights second.
- 20:37Abortion, immigration, and the culture war matter to a lot of people,
- 20:41me included. And those arguments are not going away and they shouldn't.
- 20:45But if we don't fix the foundation,
- 20:47there won't be a country left to argue about it in.
- 20:50And I know what some of you will say trans rights matter,
- 20:53abortion rights matter, immigrant rights matter,
- 20:56and you can't ask people to wait.
- 20:59You are right that they matter.
- 21:00And I'm not asking anyone to wait.
- 21:02I'm asking you to look at what happens to those rights when a country falls apart.
- 21:08In the 1920s, Berlin had one of the most open queer communities in the world,
- 21:14including Magnus Hirschfeld's Institute for Sexual Science,
- 21:18which performed one of the first known gender-affirming surgeries anywhere.
- 21:23But when the Weimar Republic
- 21:26collapsed, the Nazis made that institute one of their first targets.
- 21:30They raided it in May of 1933 and burned its library in the streets.
- 21:36Fixing wages, healthcare,
- 21:54And who gets a seat at the table is how we keep a country stable enough that
- 21:58nobody's rights can be voted, legislated,
- 22:02or burned away. I'm fighting for the ground every one of these fights stands on.
- 22:07I want to call this what it is.
- 22:09It's investment in our future.
- 22:11Public rail, public health care,
- 22:13and public schools are things a country owns together,
- 22:18the same way it owns its roads,
- 22:20its military.
- 22:21Calling that socialism or communism is a scare tactic.
- 22:25Selling off what we own is what should be the radical idea.
- 22:29But we've been selling it. In 2008,
- 22:33Chicago leased its parking meters to private investors for
- 22:3775 years for 1.15 billion dollars.
- 22:43The city's own inspector general found it had been undervalued by about a billion.
- 22:48And the investors earned their money back around 2020 with more than
- 22:5360 years left to still collect. In 2006,
- 22:57Indiana leased its toll road for 75 years.
- 23:01The operator went bankrupt eight years later.
- 23:04Here in Oklahoma, the Turnpike Authority runs public roads like a bonding business.
- 23:09Each deal is a piece of America handed to someone who answers
- 23:14to shareholders instead of to constituents.
- 23:17This message works across party lines.
- 23:19Bernie Sanders proved it in 2016,
- 23:21winning working class voters who went on to back Donald Trump.
- 23:26People want wages, health care,
- 23:29and a country that works, whatever team they think they're on.
- 23:33If the complaint is bipartisan,
- 23:36then why can't the solution be?
- 23:38Now look, another thing that's probably hard to picture in the same conversation
- 23:43is trains and hospitals, but AI is becoming the next piece of infrastructure that
- 23:46we all have to live with. And it's the next thing that they're selling off,
- 23:50even though we built it. Every AI model was trained on decades of our writing,
- 23:55our research, and our conversations.
- 23:58A lot of the science behind it was actually done with public money.
- 24:03The internet came out of DARPA.
- 24:05And a lot of the foundational research
- 24:08ran on NSF and university grants.
- 24:10The public supplied the raw material and paid for the groundwork.
- 24:15A handful of companies are getting insane valuations and making money
- 24:20off of the bets on this right now.
- 24:22When this all started, I really hoped that AI would help to govern
- 24:27us with reason and fairness.
- 24:29But AI is really only as fair as whoever owns it.
- 24:32And right now that's companies whose job is to extract more from us.
- 24:37That's what capitalism is, whether or not you're a fan of it.
- 24:40It's the act of inserting layers of extraction between the product and the profit.
- 24:46That's the parking meter deal on a scale we've never seen.
- 24:49And they're doing it with data centers too.
- 24:51We'll see just enough of those profits to talk us into selling our land,
- 24:55our water, and their power.
- 24:57While they make billions of dollars in profit.
- 25:00But who do you think that gets extracted from?
- 25:03Us. Japan has a habit that explains a lot of what I saw.
- 25:08For about 150 years, it has studied other countries on purpose and then just copied
- 25:14what worked. If you're a middle child,
- 25:17I'm sure you understand exactly what this looks like.
- 25:19In 1871, it sent a delegation of government leaders through the US.
- 25:25And Europe for almost two years just to take notes.
- 25:28Its schools were modeled on France and the US.
- 25:31Its first railways were built with British engineers.
- 25:34And its first health insurance law was modeled on Germany's.
- 25:38Japan didn't invent most of what I know we could have here if we really tried.
- 25:44It watched what worked in other places,
- 25:47picked the best of it, and then used our tax dollars or their tax dollars
- 25:52to build it.
- 25:53Now, AI is a little bit too new for that.
- 25:55Nobody has a 50 year track record to study yet.
- 25:59And right now, even Japan is mostly handing public money to companies like SoftBank.
- 26:04But a few countries are already treating AI the way Japan treated trains,
- 26:09as something the public pays for,
- 26:11so the public should own it. Switzerland's public universities released
- 26:16Apertus, which is Latin for open.
- 26:21In 2025, a fully open model built with public money that anyone can use.
- 26:26Spain, the same country that opened its high-speed rail to competition,
- 26:30released ALIA, a government-funded open model built at
- 26:35its national supercomputing center.
- 26:37The Netherlands is building GPT-NL through a public research institute trained only
- 26:42on data it has the rights to use.
- 26:44Singapore's government funds SEA-LION,
- 26:47an open model for Southeast Asian languages.
- 26:51India's national AI mission rents subsidized computing power to
- 26:55its own researchers and startups,
- 26:57so the hardware isn't only available to whoever can afford it.
- 27:01Even the U.S. started a National AI Research Resource pilot in 2024
- 27:07to give researchers public computing power.
- 27:10And Alaska already shows how shared wealth can work.
- 27:13Its oil fund sends every resident a check every year,
- 27:17an AI dividend, a
- 27:19public stake in the profits from our own collective work is the same idea.
- 27:24None of these countries have it figured out,
- 27:27but they've made the same decision Japan made about trains.
- 27:31If the public pays for it, the public should own a piece of it.
- 27:35We should own what we have built.
- 27:38And that leads me to who gets to govern.
- 27:40So I served on a local committee for about six months.
- 27:46It met on Tuesdays at 1 p.m.
- 27:49I didn't know that until after I joined.
- 27:51So who exactly is supposed to make that with a job?
- 27:56Nobody bans working people from local government.
- 27:59There, you won't find it on a law anywhere.
- 28:01And if they did, I'm sure it would be struck down immediately.
- 28:04They just schedule it while we're at work.
- 28:06And pay almost nothing to serve.
- 28:08I live in Norman, Oklahoma. I I know I've never,
- 28:12I don't think I've really talked about that,
- 28:13but some of my listeners come from Norman.
- 28:16Norman Norman City Council pays their city council members $100 per month.
- 28:21My city council member spends 30 to 40 hours a week
- 28:27on city business alone, which means they are currently earning somewhere between
- 28:3158 cents and 77 cents per hour.
- 28:35Oklahoma state legislators make about $47,500 a year.
- 28:40So let's be honest, the seats go to retirees,
- 28:43business owners, and people who, whose employers will just kind of cover for them.
- 28:47And then everyone wonders why government doesn't understand the rest of us.
- 28:52Japan ran this experiment for us,
- 28:54actually. A city council member there earns about 400,000 yen a month,
- 28:59which is about $2,500 or more,
- 29:01depending on the exchange rate.
- 29:03That's more than 20 times what Norman pays.
- 29:06And really, it only works out to about $15 an hour.
- 29:09But it's treated like a job because it is one.
- 29:12But in Japan's small towns and villages,
- 29:16they have what's called an assembly.
- 29:18The assembly pay averages about half that,
- 29:21right? And those assemblies look just like ours,
- 29:23mostly older men with an average age in their 60s.
- 29:26In 2019, eight of them couldn't find enough candidates to fill their seats.
- 29:32One village looked at replacing its entire assembly because nobody could afford
- 29:37to serve. Same country, same culture,
- 29:40opposite results. The only thing that changed was whether the job paid enough
- 29:45to live on. I would run for office if I could.
- 29:47I can't afford to, and neither can most people who'd fight the hardest
- 29:51for working families. That's the ladder getting pulled up again.
- 29:54One meeting at a time. The fixes are cheap,
- 29:59they don't really cost much.
- 30:00Evening meetings, a remote option,
- 30:03stipends that cover real time,
- 30:05and child care during sessions.
- 30:08None of it needs a constitutional amendment.
- 30:10It needs a council willing to vote for it.
- 30:13Or in the case of Norman, the citizens have to vote for it.
- 30:17In 2022, Norman voted on raising council pay from twelve hundred dollars
- 30:22a year to fifty four hundred dollars a year.
- 30:25Still, that's about two dollars and sixty cents an hour.
- 30:28Fifty-seven percent of Norman voters said no to a raise that would have cost
- 30:32us each thirty-two cents a year.
- 30:35For thirty-two cents, a teacher,
- 30:37a nurse, or a guy working the line at a plant could afford to sit on city council.
- 30:43But when the job pays nothing,
- 30:45the only people who can take it are people who don't need the money.
- 30:49Japan's villages learn the same lesson.
- 30:52We keep voting to make sure people like us can't afford
- 30:57to represent us. This is a warning.
- 30:59I don't want a revolution. That means somebody would get hurt.
- 31:04I don't want anyone hurt. But honestly,
- 31:07I'm getting really afraid of what happens if nothing changes.
- 31:12And the people who study this are afraid too.
- 31:14Political scientist Barbara Walter,
- 31:17no S, not related, in a book called How Civil Wars Start,
- 31:22found that instability rises
- 31:25when large groups of people feel locked out of power with no peaceful
- 31:29way to change their lives. I just described that.
- 31:32It's a city council seat that pays 58 cents an hour,
- 31:36meeting at 1 p.m. on a Tuesday,
- 31:38and a toll road hidden behind SP65.
- 31:42None of that feels like the start of something dangerous.
- 31:45It feels like Tuesday. That's just how it starts.
- 31:49Peter Turchin spent decades studying why societies come apart.
- 31:54He links unrest to two trends running at once.
- 31:57Wages falling for ordinary workers and wealth piling up at the top.
- 32:02In 2010, he predicted the U.S.
- 32:04would hit serious turmoil in the 2020s.
- 32:07We're in the middle of the 2020s now,
- 32:10and I don't think anyone listening would call these calm years.
- 32:13History is blunt about where that leads.
- 32:17Stanford historian Walter Scheidel's
- 32:20The Great Leveler, argues that across thousands of years,
- 32:25big drops in inequality came almost entirely from four major shocks:
- 32:31Black Swan events, mass war,
- 32:34violent revolution, state collapse,
- 32:38and plague. The Black Death killed a third of Europe and left survivors with higher
- 32:45wages. That's the record. And it kind of sucks.
- 32:49I don't want any of those. I don't want anyone hurt.
- 32:53So the question is whether there's another way to move this fast.
- 32:58There is evidence that there is.
- 33:00Political scientists Erica Chenoweth and Maria Stephan studied every major resistance
- 33:06campaign from 1900 to 2006 and found that nonviolent movements
- 33:13succeed about twice as often as violent ones.
- 33:16Poland's Solidarity, the Philippines in 1986,
- 33:21the Velvet Revolution.
- 33:23None of them needed a guillotine.
- 33:25They needed millions of people just refusing to accept the status quo.
- 33:30Chenoweth found that almost no campaign in her data failed once
- 33:36it drew active participation from 3.5% of the population.
- 33:41Here, that's about 12 million Americans.
- 33:44The 2017 Women's March drew several million in a single day.
- 33:50So here's what we demand. Voting matters.
- 33:53And I'll come back to that. But another state,
- 33:57another slate, another docket of Democratic senators will
- 34:03not fix this fast enough for people who can't afford insulin or groceries right now.
- 34:09And the establishment in both parties has had 40 years to notice.
- 34:15Pressure has to come from
- 34:17outside the ballot box as well.
- 34:20Here's what the pressure should demand:
- 34:22labor that can actually stop the economy.
- 34:27Rebuilt union by union.
- 34:30Organizing outside of the two-party system so progressives stop being
- 34:36a bloc that Democrats can take for granted.
- 34:39Local government
- 34:42working people can actually participate in evening meetings,
- 34:46real pay, a seat for everyone,
- 34:49and specific demands, public rail,
- 34:52guaranteed health care, public ownership of what we built,
- 34:57paid for by taxing the wealth that's piled up since 1981.
- 35:03If you want to see this laid out as a full platform,
- 35:06you can listen to Max's episodes of UNFTR.
- 35:10He has one called The 5 Non- Negotiables,
- 35:135NN: This Is How We Win. It lays out five non-negotiables.
- 35:17The first three are meant to kind of earn people's trust back.
- 35:21And the last two are meant to protect our democracy and our planet.
- 35:25Those are Housing First, treats shelter as a right.
- 35:30You give people a stable home first,
- 35:32then help with everything else because nobody gets their lives together while
- 35:36sleeping in a car.
- 35:37A civilian labor corps is a public jobs guarantee for work that matters
- 35:42to a community, but won't turn a profit.
- 35:45So the private sector never does it.
- 35:47Max pitches it as sort of a way to brace for AI wiping out jobs.
- 35:53And I would point it straight at 40 years of deferred maintenance,
- 35:58water, rail, bridges. Medicare for All is healthcare as a human right,
- 36:05one public plan.
- 36:06with no premiums, no deductibles,
- 36:08and no bankruptcy after a diagnosis.
- 36:11Election integrity, which means getting the money out of politics.
- 36:14As long as a politician's career depends on the people with the most to spend,
- 36:20they will answer to them first.
- 36:21Always.
- 36:23Climate action is what Max calls Social Security for the planet.
- 36:26A shared safety net we pay now,
- 36:30so the next generation inherits something that we can live in and that they
- 36:34can live in in the future. I don't line up with them on everything,
- 36:37but I think they get the order right.
- 36:39They start with the things that change daily life,
- 36:41then protect the democracy that makes everything else possible.
- 36:45Go find that episode. I'll try to link it in the show notes here.
- 36:48You know, I didn't I didn't expect this episode to go in so many directions,
- 36:51but I came home with a lot to say.
- 36:53In Japan, I didn't keep my head on a swivel.
- 36:56I relaxed, I let my guard down,
- 36:58I stopped carrying around the fear that one bad diagnosis could take everything.
- 37:05For two weeks, I got to see what citizenship could feel like.
- 37:09In 1871, Japan sent its leaders around the world for two years to take notes
- 37:15on what worked.
- 37:17I went for two weeks, and this episode is my notes.
- 37:20Some of what Japan does, we probably can't copy.
- 37:23Our culture is different. And hey,
- 37:25maybe that's another episode. But a lot of it we can.
- 37:29Trains that come every four minutes,
- 37:30streets you can walk, health care that doesn't end in bankruptcy,
- 37:35and a government that treats its people like an investment instead
- 37:38of a revenue stream. None of that is magic.
- 37:41But someone somewhere chose this for us.
- 37:45And for 40 years we've made the other choice.
- 37:47We sold the parking meters, we hid the toll roads behind SP65.
- 37:52We scheduled democracy for Tuesdays at 1 p.m.
- 37:55and then voted down 32 cents to fix it.
- 37:58Now we're about to hand AI built from our work and paid for with our
- 38:03tax dollars to the same kind of people who bought the meters.
- 38:07Gate 52H has been a hot basement for years because nobody
- 38:12Who decides what it looks like ever has to sit in it.
- 38:16The same goes for the people who decide what a council seat pays,
- 38:20where a toll road goes, and who owns AI.
- 38:24That's the whole episode in one room.
- 38:28And everyone stuck in that room is on the same side,
- 38:31whether they know it or not. The young guy who's broke,
- 38:34angry, and listening to the only people who offered him an explanation
- 38:37is not my enemy. He's on the bottom with the rest of us.
- 38:40And rent.
- 38:41And wages are his top issues. The people fighting for trans rights,
- 38:45abortion rights, and immigrants' rights are not asking for too much.
- 38:49Those rights only last in a country stable enough to keep them.
- 38:53And Berlin in 1933 showed what happens when it isn't.
- 38:59And nobody in the middle has to give anything up for this.
- 39:02The money is at the top and it's been piling there since 1981.
- 39:08And nothing has ever made it trickle down.
- 39:11So here's where we are. We fix it now through investment and reform while
- 39:17we still can, if we still can,
- 39:20or we just keep selling it off piece by piece and find out what Walter
- 39:25and Turchin already warned us about.
- 39:26I know which future I want to live in.
- 39:28I'm voting in the midterms like the country depends on it because it does.
- 39:32But the day after the election,
- 39:35that's when work starts. Every Democrat who flips a seat,
- 39:39every candidate who wins owes us.
- 39:41We should call their offices, pack their town halls,
- 39:45and show up at every meeting they'd rather that we skipped peacefully,
- 39:49relentlessly, and with the ferocity of people who know exactly what's at stake.
- 39:56This ship is sinking. We've got to grab a bucket.
- 40:00I'll see you at the next meeting.
- 40:01Be kind to each other.
- 40:03Because we need each other more than you realize.
- 40:06Don't forget to check out our website at fof.foundation,
- 40:10just fof.foundation.com. You can send us an email at
- 40:15the overlap at fof.foundation.
- 40:18Or you can hit us up on our socials,
- 40:20our Bluesky, our Mastodon, or check us out on your latest podcast app.
- 40:25Give us a review. Five stars if you will.
- 40:27We'll see you next time. Bye.