Latest / The Curve / The Green Bike Empire That Can't Pay Its Bills.
Transcript
- 0:00Welcome to the Care Weekly, where we read the finance news so you don't have to.
- 0:04I'm Vic Harris, I'm a finance professional and I've had a career making money for other people.
- 0:08And I'm Sophie Hallwright, I'm an executive producer of Radio Television.
- 0:12I was just really sick and tired of not understanding the economy,
- 0:14so Vic and I started this podcast.
- 0:16Quick thank you before you get into it to our amazing team behind the scenes,
- 0:19Emily Rugby, our producer and Lucy Monroe, our social media manager.
- 0:23In today's episode we're giving a quick update on the meme stock that's made a bid for eBay.
- 0:27We talk about the oil crisis and the scary, scary, eyeword inflation.
- 0:33There's two main stories we're looking at today. Firstly, there is a company that from the outside
- 0:38looks like they're killing it, but are they actually? This business is about to go public for the
- 0:43first time. We're not so sure how positive this is going to be. And secondly, the Australian budget,
- 0:48there is some major tax changes happening and we compare this to now how it looks versus New Zealand
- 0:54and UK. And don't panic or be bored, tax is important. This is actually really important,
- 0:58so definitely stick around to listen to that. But first, a word from today's sponsor.
- 1:05This episode of The Curve Weekly is made possible thanks to Pathfinder Kiwi Saver Plan,
- 1:10helping you invest alongside your values. We're really excited to bring you the ethical hotline,
- 1:14where you can ask all your tricky ethical questions. Each month Pathfinder will answer the most
- 1:19interesting popular or poll rising question. To submit yours, follow the link in the podcast
- 1:23shown notes. Pathfinder asset management limited is the issuer of the Pathfinder Kiwi Saver Plan.
- 1:28A product disclosure statement is available at Pathfinder.kiwi. Guys, I have to admit,
- 1:33you know how we talk a lot on our podcast and on social media about how to split your pay and
- 1:37how to do this and do that. I have been so naughty the last two weeks and I'm constantly pulling
- 1:43money out of my gifts fund or my this fund because I've totally run out of money. That's okay.
- 1:47It's like I feel so far gone and today's payday. I feel like you're so far off the bandwagon.
- 1:53Like you're like off the bandwagon down the road around the road. Yeah, like the bandwagon or the
- 1:57wagon is like now been left in another country. Okay. And I have decided that. That's the right
- 2:02is another one coming. Oh, there's another one coming. You can get back on. But that's the thing.
- 2:06I'm struggling to get the motivation took because I feel really annoyed about the fact that I built
- 2:10up this money in the different parts and now I'm starting again. But that's the thing. You built up
- 2:14the money. I'm like disappointed with myself. It's almost like self-hatred mode. Yeah, like,
- 2:19no, sorry, not self-hatred. It's almost like I'm trying to punish myself. Like I've bought lots of
- 2:23stuff for work. Things are not reimbursed myself. To yourself, like you would if it was a friend.
- 2:29What would you say to a friend that had done the same? I would say put time aside this weekend
- 2:35on Sunday. Make time for yourself. We all mess up and you know end up doing things that are
- 2:42the opposite of what you say you should do. Pause, look at how much is coming in, relook at your
- 2:47numbers. You're obviously not quite nailing it. Like maybe you're investing too much. Maybe you're
- 2:51putting too much in certain buckets. But just take the time, take an hour. I don't know if you're
- 2:56nice to myself. I can even just tell the tone of my voice. You don't take the time. Even when you
- 3:00just sit there. No, but I will do that. I will because I'm publicly announcing that I'm doing it.
- 3:05So be really embarrassing if I come back next week. Yeah, next week we'll make a note.
- 3:10In my upper juice, I'm making notes in the prep sheet to ask Sophie how I'm actually really glad
- 3:14you have done that because otherwise you can't ability is great. I actually agree. And I think if
- 3:19you're in a similar position, sometimes almost like for example at the moment, I cannot get myself
- 3:26in the back in meditation. Like I need to meditate every day. I'm a way better person when I do it
- 3:31and I've been struggling too. So I've made a deal with my boyfriend where like he's got a really
- 3:35bad back and he needs to straight. So we're basically doing, he's doing his stretches while I
- 3:40meditate and then we're sort of like who ever falls off the bandwagon first, we're going to have
- 3:45some kind of like accountability thing. Oh, nice. Sorry, enough random chat about my life. No,
- 3:49but can I just, this is kind of a really, well, it's kind of a money saving hack. I guess this app
- 3:55that I found, it is an app that you take photos of every single item in your wardrobe and it
- 4:02generates outfits for you in the morning. No, I know. It's like like Clueless, but like today
- 4:09in today's age. Have you even done it? No, but that's what I'm doing this weekend. What's the
- 4:13point? It's quite a, like to get set up, you have to take photos of all your clothes and stuff,
- 4:17but it's so that you can, you don't have to buy new things. You can be like, oh yeah, that's right,
- 4:21that top and it goes well with those shorts and I've never thought to put those combinations together.
- 4:26Or you like, hey, I want to wear my brown cardie today. Can you send you some bottoms for it?
- 4:30That's actually quite good, but oh my god, we're not going to be using our brain at all in two years
- 4:35time. It's all about removing decision making. It can also save you money because there's maybe
- 4:40items in your clothes that you forgot, but also it creates like new, exciting combinations to wear.
- 4:46You only use like 10% of your wardrobe and it's been crazy. I interviewed someone which is,
- 4:50it's coming out in a couple of weeks, her name's Fran and one of the tips she gave was to take photos
- 4:54of outfits that you like, save them in a folder and they can be your work outfits. You're going out
- 4:58outfits so that when you're feeling like I have no outfits, it's the same kind of premise and I
- 5:03started doing it and it's been great. That's coming out not this week, but next week. But what,
- 5:07what is the app called? The app is called Wearing with an H. We're hearing. What? Wearing with an H. Yeah.
- 5:14W-H-E-R-I-M-G-G. It's really T-C. Wearing. We're link it. We're showing it to anyone that wants to
- 5:21download it. Right. Now, speaking of clothing, eBay, we spoke about this last week. It's a pretty
- 5:26funny story. So if anyone that's missed it, GameStop was a mean stop that went viral a few years
- 5:31ago. They last week did a takeover bid for eBay, which is four times its size. So a lot of people
- 5:37kind of laughed. It was this big hilarious. Everyone's just saying, this is obviously not going to
- 5:41go through. So we have an update. Yes. So the eBay board has rejected the offer, which was not
- 5:48really a shock. No. They said it's neither credible or attractive. So what a funny quote. The board is
- 5:55kind of the spokesperson for the shareholders. And they're just like, kind of like absolutely hot.
- 5:59And then the GameStop CEO has already come back. They've fired off a letter to the eBay
- 6:04chairperson and said, you know, we're going to go straight to shareholders and we're going to
- 6:08let them evaluate it themselves. But surely shareholders can see everything going on.
- 6:12Totally. So they can see what's going on. But I guess there's more weight if the board is like,
- 6:17this is a really great offer you should accept it. Right. You know. So he also went on Piers Morgan
- 6:21and said he's he's going to do whatever it takes essentially. I love the asset. It's run by a bunch
- 6:27of losers. And it's something that can be a lot more successful. If it was run by an owner that's
- 6:35an on entrepreneur that has not just a much larger vision, but knows how to run a business and
- 6:42make a lot of money and cares because I have my own money on the line. I reckon he's fueled by a
- 6:48no. Do you know what I mean? He's one of those people that you tell me no. I'm going to thrive on
- 6:52that. If you think about his previous businesses, he got told no by venture capital to get funding
- 6:58for his first business so many times. What was his first business to he? Because they were like,
- 7:03well, Amazon delivers pet food. So why do you think you can do it better? Anyway, he built their
- 7:07business to nearly, you know, $3.4 billion when it sold. So it was kind of like a big FU to
- 7:13get back. So he's just like, I'm going to do it. And he's quite, game start has quietly bought a
- 7:18stake. 5% stake. This is actually what I was going to say because I think that firstly, most
- 7:23entrepreneurs are found as I imagine a field by now. I feel the same. Yeah. So many times,
- 7:29particularly because the finance industry is absolutely not built for women. I mean, think about
- 7:33how many times people said you're not going to raise money from investors or it puts fire in your
- 7:37belly. I'm going to prove you wrong. So I'm not surprised by this. But yeah, this is really
- 7:42interesting. Just the idea that they actually already own a 5% stake. That's a lot. It's more that
- 7:48once you've got that 5% stake, you can then call like a special shareholder meeting and you can
- 7:53overturn the board. And then you can put in people on the board that will prove the offer.
- 7:59So basically he's trying it from all angles. He's doing the takeover. He's bought shares. He's
- 8:04going to try and make it happen. I kind of hear for it. And I really hope that he can buy it.
- 8:08Yeah. Because eBay is so blah. Like buy it. Do someone call with it. I'm here for it. He also made
- 8:14a point when he went to shareholders of eBay calling out the eBay management pay packets that they
- 8:20paid a lot. And that's one way to get shareholders on side. Like they hate it when, yeah. So
- 8:27the reason to just to explain for anyone that doesn't understand that obviously shareholders are
- 8:32kind of funding the business, right? When people put money into a business, whether it's 10 or
- 8:36100 million, the money is going to fuel the business to grow. And so a lot of that. And for most
- 8:43businesses, a huge amount of spend goes on people. And as soon as people hear someone's being overpaid,
- 8:48I mean think about it with Parliament. If you have some president that's being paid a ridiculous
- 8:52amount in the country suffering, like the biggest headline you'll see. It's the same thing.
- 8:56The line with the risk, and I guess the effort they put in, they've put in to run that business,
- 9:01but it is one way to kind of get shareholders up and arms. Now, okay. So oil, we want to show
- 9:07quick update on this, right? We talked last week about the 38 days left of oil.
- 9:11Yeah. And what's your leisure? What is going on now? We're probably 35 now considering we do this
- 9:17podcast weekly. The what we're starting to see now is inflation coming through in the numbers.
- 9:23Because remember the war started in April. So we're starting to see April's numbers come through
- 9:28now that we're in May. Whereas before we didn't, it was obviously a lag. And in the US,
- 9:34inflation's now nearly 4%. And the main driver of that was petrol prices going up nearly 30%.
- 9:41Yeah. It's starting to come through. There's headlines in the UK saying, you know,
- 9:46brace for a new cost of living crisis, which is just, and I know newspapers have headlines to
- 9:52like that to sell newspapers, but it's not good news.
- 9:57I think it's to do listen to. No, sorry, I'm so sorry, it's taking a really cute video of me.
- 10:02So I think with this, it's kind of similar. How would I explain it? Sorry, your dog is too cute
- 10:09right now. She's leaning her like head on my chair and then putting both paws up for me to give her
- 10:15a poor massage. Now, the oil situation, you've talked for months and months about the fact that
- 10:20this is going to increase inflation. I think it's one of those things where until you see it in
- 10:24the numbers or until you start to see things happening, it's the sort of fictional idea. It's
- 10:29like global warming. People can't really compute the idea of a future thing happening until they
- 10:34start to see proof of it. And I feel like that's exactly what is happening here. Do you feel,
- 10:40I was having this conversation with friends in the weekend that I feel like there is just this
- 10:45dark cloud, particularly in the UK at the moment of everyone's just talking about the cost of
- 10:52shit. I mean, I know a lot of people that are choosing to move out of city centers because
- 10:58they can't afford to be in London or in New York or in Auckland or Sydney. The cost of living
- 11:05in terms of literally housing is pricing so many people out that weren't priced out before.
- 11:12But yeah, I don't know. But it's like, where do you move, right? Because Australia is
- 11:15fangling it, New Zealand's fangling it, the US is fangling it, you know, I was looking
- 11:21this morning at how I told them the country. No, but I'm like, where are you know, like you have
- 11:25to move quite far out to get any reprieve from pricing. Anyway, production markets. So, okay,
- 11:31for anyone that doesn't know about production markets, is polymarket a market or are they called
- 11:36polymarkets? Okay. Polymarket and Kaleeshie are two of the main platforms. Kaleeshie, Kaleeshie.
- 11:44Isn't she like, my milkshake brings other boys? Yeah, yeah, yeah, certainly not, but we're talking
- 11:49about here. So, they basically bet on outcomes. So, any thing from election sports whether
- 11:55if a celebrity is going to win an Oscar, you know, it's there's been so much chat in the news
- 11:58about this. Yes, yeah. And particularly around how do you regulate it? But can you explain the whole
- 12:04contracts thing because I don't really understand this piece. Yeah, so this is where there's the gray
- 12:08area and we've kind of spoken up this before, but I wanted to dig deeper into like why it has
- 12:12got approval and why it has become legal is because when you invest in like a commodity, like say
- 12:19you invest in gold or coffee or milk, you don't actually buy, you know, a kg of coffee and they
- 12:26deliver it to you and you've bought that. You buy a contract of the price of coffee in say 12
- 12:32months or two years. And this is what airlines do with oil, for example. Yes, they buy some of it,
- 12:37but they also buy to like lock in a price in the future. It's like energy, isn't it? Yeah, so
- 12:43it's like you can do anything like the biggest thing is in commodities. So how these two platforms,
- 12:48you know, have dominated in production markets in general is that they are just saying it's exactly
- 12:53the same. You're just buying a contract on an outcome instead of a or a price of whatever it is.
- 13:00It's the chance of something of something happening. And so if it's like the contract's a price
- 13:05like probability. So, you know, if there's a 41% chance of something happening, then it's a 41
- 13:11cent contract. That is how like they're kind of framed as these like financial instruments,
- 13:16rather than gambling. So say you bought like what's a yes or no production? Is the new road
- 13:23peptides lip gloss going to run out within a week of being on sale? Oh, very specific. So you really
- 13:28buy one and say you thought yes, it will. And you bought 100 yes shares. Yeah, so for the
- 13:35yes contract, not the no contract, the yes contract. Yes, you buy 100 yes shares at 40 cents each.
- 13:41So there's a 40% probability that's going to happen that they're going to run out.
- 13:48Then you pay 40 dollars. 100 times 40 cents. 40 dollars. Is anyone else getting that?
- 13:55No. You buy 100 yes shares at 40 cents each. So you've paid 40 dollars.
- 14:01Okay. Yeah. Yeah. And then the event occurs. It is you stay do run out. You're like,
- 14:07woohoo. Then you receive 100 dollars on top of that 40. So it's like you receive 100 in total.
- 14:15So you've made 60. Then you've made 60 dollars profit. If it doesn't happen, you've lost 40.
- 14:21Okay. Yeah. But you don't really make a lot. If I put 40 down and then all I get back is
- 14:28oh no, I get 100 back. Got you. Sorry. Sorry. Yeah. Yeah. But also multiply that by massive amounts.
- 14:34People are putting like crazy amounts down just for context in terms of how fast these prediction
- 14:40markets have grown. Last year, there was 1.8 billion going into the platform. Yeah.
- 14:46This year, as of April 2026, that's up to 24.2 billion. So that's a huge increase in a really
- 14:54short space of time. And when there is that much of an increase, that's when the regulators and
- 14:59people go, you know, any product is going absolutely crazy. Like it was crypt over four, you know,
- 15:04now it's prediction markets. They're definitely under the microscope. Brazil has banned all
- 15:09production markets. They've obviously labeled it as gambling. But over 70% of polymarket users.
- 15:15So that's the largest platform. And then Calche is the second largest,
- 15:21lose money overall. So to think that you're in the 30% that can make money. And actually,
- 15:28when it's like going to the casino, the house always wins. It was one one example is that
- 15:33someone on the predicted markets turned $199 to a $21,000 bet by heating a weather sensor
- 15:40near a Paris airport with a hairdryer to make the outcome. So people like interfering
- 15:47with this. Yeah, I know. I created on how you're making money. There was AI generated rumours
- 15:52about Netanyahu's death, which is the Israeli president. There was, yeah, but it was all AI
- 15:59generated. And so there was an outcome on that. There's just going crazy now. Oh, yeah. And there
- 16:04was a US Special Forces soldier who was indicted and indicted for using classified knowledge
- 16:10of a military raid in Venezuela to win over $400,000 on a polymarket. And it's the first criminal
- 16:19prediction market case in the US. I think there's going to be so many more of these. I mean,
- 16:24the hairdryer example is genius. It's genius, but it's also like if someone's doing that,
- 16:29imagine what? Oh, these are the ones that have come to life as well. Like imagine all the other
- 16:33roads, the whole peptides thing was a thing. I'd just bet way more than what I would spend
- 16:38on buying the entire catalog so that it does sell out and I win all this money.
- 16:48Okay, I was about to say we have an exciting IPO happening, but I don't know if this is exciting.
- 16:54The reason I found this exciting is because I know the company I use, I was going to say,
- 16:58I kind of wanted to keep this as a secret so people can try and guess what we're talking about.
- 17:02I use the products. I've fallen off a product. I've injured myself from a product. They're bright green.
- 17:10They are a way of getting from A to B. They're good for the environment. They're very good for
- 17:15the environment. What else have we got here? They end up in canals. Oh, yes. They've ruined many of
- 17:20my clothes because I've had clothes stuck in part of the product. You get sticky hands after
- 17:26a year of oil. Lime, which is the bike in London that everyone uses. I mean, I don't know if this
- 17:35is super mainstream in other parts of the world yet, but I would say it's particularly common in
- 17:40London. I went to a Hackney work which is a small little part of East London that's quite hard
- 17:45to get to and I didn't realise there was this enormous constant on with all these young people
- 17:48that looked so cool. When you go past 25-year-olds that are cool, they're wearing such awesome
- 17:55outfits. I just looked around and it's just seas of line bikes. Basically, they're going through
- 18:00an IPO. They're going to be a publicly listed company which means that any of us if we want to
- 18:05could buy shares in the business, but it's not really a success story in terms of why they're going
- 18:12public, right? No. I think that's why I wanted to highlight it. We do hear a lot of these really
- 18:19exciting companies coming to IPO and be public for the first time and they've got these incredible
- 18:23growth strategies. But there is also companies that have to go public. They need money, they need
- 18:31capital and this is exactly what's limestone. It's interesting because if you zoom out and you hear
- 18:37that this company has bikes in over 230 cities, that's a huge amount of the world. There's 29
- 18:44countries that it's in and it's had over a billion rides. You would hear those stats and think they
- 18:50must be killing it. They must be so successful and they're going public, what a success story,
- 18:56but when you look beneath the hood it's actually not that great. They've also got a billion dollars
- 19:00of debt that they owe. It's a lot. And about 850 million of that is during the next 12 months,
- 19:07so and they just don't have the money to pay that. It's not a success story because if they
- 19:14raise that money, they pay off the debt, then they've got a lot more freedom to grow. And I'm sure
- 19:21that's kind of the narrative they're going to spend two investors, then they'll be able to continue
- 19:25to operate and be even more successful. But it's not really that whole, we're so successful,
- 19:31we're going public. By our growth plan, it's a bit more, we either go public or we go under completely.
- 19:38It's not that exciting. Although I guess if you look at Uber, who does online?
- 19:44They were in debt and not profit making for years and years and years. So you can,
- 19:50this can be a way to become quite successful, right? Like a lot of businesses operate in debt,
- 19:55and I think that's something that keeps us don't really understand.
- 19:58Yes, and they are. The key thing is they've got free cash flow. Free cash flow is a really key
- 20:03point because it means that they are generating cash. The company can, it's just the debt side of
- 20:09it that is holding them back. But revenue minus expenses, that kind of thing, the operating side
- 20:15of the business is still doing really well. They've just got this massive debt they have to pay,
- 20:20and it's kind of wearing them down. So once they can raise money, pay that off, operationally,
- 20:26the business is doing really doing really well. Revenue is up about 30% last year, so they're not
- 20:31burning through cash. They've shown investors they can exist. It's just this debt they took on,
- 20:39over the last few years, is now coming to kind of bite them in the ass.
- 20:43Do you think the idea that Uber owns line and Uber is such a success story? Do you think that
- 20:50that will stand them in quite good stead to go public? And the sense that people look at Uber and
- 20:55think, okay, well, they've, they've managed to get out of their debt hole. So we backed line to do
- 21:00the same. So Uber wasn't debt. It was cash flow. So it's like when the, obviously, they're,
- 21:06their expenses and their, their things they had to pay for were more than the money they were
- 21:10bringing in. And that's normal for a lot of tech companies. You get to a point though where you
- 21:15become, you know, you're kind of, you're, you're profitable and then you're kind of self-sustaining.
- 21:19So Uber owns 10% of line. I actually thought it was the whole announcement. Yes. So they own 10%
- 21:26and they've got a really strong partnership there because Uber brings in 14% of lines revenue.
- 21:35That's a lot. So if Uber walked away, that's when you'd be like, absolutely not. You know, like
- 21:40that is, that is, there's a meaningful dependency there on, on Uber. And if they pulled out,
- 21:47they didn't integrate anymore like that would be, that would be hugely hugely disastrous. So it
- 21:52will be interesting to see what Uber does when line IPOs, whether they keep their 10% stake or they
- 21:58sell as well. If they sold, that would be a big red flag to me, even if they sold some of it,
- 22:02because you want them to be incentivized to keep their partnership a lot of partnership.
- 22:08Partnership a life. You know, if they don't have skin in the game in, in line, they could just
- 22:14cut it at any time. But if they cut it, their 10% stake is going to be impacted too. Do you know what
- 22:19I mean? So there's kind of got like double whammy. Yeah. Was that my sense? Was on the back of my
- 22:24boyfriend's mobile. Got the day. And we were going past all these lines and I said,
- 22:28God, it's a good business, isn't it? Laugh line. I think they're just so, what a genius idea,
- 22:33because I use them all the time. And he was like, yeah, but they don't have a huge markup. Like,
- 22:38it's like quite hard to make money in terms of the upkeep of those bikes. They are constantly
- 22:44breaking down. They're often disgusting in terms of I've had you've recent a flat tire, no seat,
- 22:50no pedal, no handle, changing off, like, rubbish everywhere. Like, it's pretty, it's used
- 22:58the mind. So there's some kind of psychological like, anyway, what I was thinking was, okay, wow,
- 23:04amazing business model. But actually, if you're constantly having to replace these bikes,
- 23:07which should not keep surely, they're trying to keep their prices in line with how much it
- 23:12costs to get on a bus. It's like a pound 70 or something. They're constantly changing how they're
- 23:17doing their their pricing, because last year it was, you know, you get 400 minutes for 35 pounds
- 23:22or whatever, now you pay for a ride. Like, they're constantly trying to figure out how to do it. But
- 23:27if anyone can do it though, right, it's over. Like, you've got to have scale, I reckon, for these
- 23:32bikes. I think the thing that I don't know how they're going to get around this, but I personally
- 23:38have had a limestone, many limestones. And I just feel like you see all these people on these
- 23:42electric bikes without helmets in one of the busiest cities of the world. It's quite dangerous.
- 23:49And I feel like the amount of claims that they're going to get for health insurance for people
- 23:55dying on a lime is going to probably take them out of business. Like, I know that's dramatic.
- 23:59Yeah. I know I've heard so many stories about that. Yeah. Well, that's why they recently changed
- 24:04them in London. They changed the bike because they were getting too too much of what they call
- 24:09limelegg, which you've had. Oh my god, I've had a limelegg. Yeah. And there's too many injuries of
- 24:16heavy, huge scarf on my lines falling on people's legs and breaking them and injuring them.
- 24:22And it's a known thing now. Have you had limelegg? I've not heard the phrase, but I've certainly
- 24:26had limelegg. Yeah. Anyway, my point is I do think that this is something that they're going to have
- 24:31to look into. If they want to scale and be successful, they have to think about the impacts
- 24:36that's going to have on a lot of people. It's funny. We, you know, there's people that go around
- 24:40and change the batteries of the bikes to make sure that they're always seen there. Oh, I see them
- 24:43everywhere. Oh, they pick up the whole bike all the way here. I see them pick up the whole thing
- 24:46and take them away. Anyway, we were at a park the other day and we were, this guy was like changing
- 24:51out the batteries and flour man's like, oh mate, well, what do you want for? Of course he does.
- 24:58And he had this boot full of batteries. And this guy's like, yeah, he's like, I just go and I
- 25:03pick up all these batteries and I go around and change them and find them and say, and how much
- 25:07do they pay you? I say, I'm in the market for a new job. It was about two pounds of battery.
- 25:13So the more you can do, this guy, the more you can do, the more it's paid. And
- 25:18for my man was like, I think I should do that. I was like, you don't have a car. So you've got to
- 25:22take out the car higher fee. Like, you're just, I was like, absolutely not. But I love how
- 25:28over and in line, but they they use people. Yeah, that maybe have spare time. We want to earn a bit
- 25:37who want to earn a bit of extra income. It's quite good. And the whole sustainability element here,
- 25:42I think, cannot be ignored. And I think that's why, you know, Uber has used a mobility company. But
- 25:49you know, the fact that they are supporting people getting off the roads and biking instead of
- 25:54using cars and all of that. I also think, you know, there's a lot of people that work for Uber
- 25:59or line. You don't hear reports about them being treated badly or them that, you know,
- 26:05whereas if you look at Amazon who have, you know, so many employees and there's so many scary
- 26:09stories about how people are treated, I just think that if there's employing that many people,
- 26:14whether it's changing batteries, driving the cars, whatever it is, you would think of business
- 26:18that big that's employing lots of different contractors that there'd be some stories about things
- 26:22coming out, but there's just not. And I think that's hard when you've got so many employees all
- 26:28over the world. I think also, I guess they're not employees, though, are that they're contractors.
- 26:31Yeah, I also think there has to be some government, I don't know, subsidies or incentives here.
- 26:37Like this is a company that's genuinely trying to lower emissions in your country or, you know,
- 26:42get more people off the road, etc. reduce congestion. And I just think there has to be some kind of
- 26:47subsidies. If Lyme can't make it a success and they're backed by one of the biggest mobility
- 26:50companies in the world, we don't know. Okay, coming up after the break, we're going to be
- 26:54speaking about the new changes coming in that are going to impact your investments. This is huge,
- 26:58this is off the back of what's happening in Australia, but we're going to talk about how this
- 27:02and what you can learn from it will impact people all over the world when it comes to how you're
- 27:06investing and how much money you're actually making. But first, we have a quick word from today's
- 27:10sponsor. A recent study mindful money did found that 50% of New Zealand investors are worried about
- 27:16greenwashing. And honestly, I get it. It's really hard to know what to trust these days. And that's
- 27:20why we've partnered with Pathfinder Kiwis Everplan because they make ethical investing understandable
- 27:26and accessible. The Pathfinder being ethical means avoiding some profitable companies. So, for
- 27:30example, Amazon, IBM, Tesla and instead investing in a diverse mix that aligns with their ethical
- 27:36investment policy and aims to grow wealth over time for their members. So you can invest in the Pathfinder
- 27:40Kiwis Everplan and they'll do all the difficult thinking for you about whether a company is ethical
- 27:45or not based on their policy. Pathfinder asset management limited is the issue of the Pathfinder
- 27:49Kiwis Everplan. A product disclosure statement is available at Pathfinder.kiwis. There has been
- 27:55quite a bit going on in Australia. We've had so many people messaging us saying, please
- 27:59hand code what's going on. I love that. I love that people are starting to see things sort of
- 28:05probably on social media and then they send it to us and I say, please talk about this. There's
- 28:08been a lot of non-political, non-financial influences and celebrities in Australia getting
- 28:15up and arms about this. Yeah, so we had the Australian budget this week. I know that might sound
- 28:20a bit like me. But a budget is actually really important that we pay attention to these. No matter
- 28:26what country you're living in, there's always something you can learn. But if it is in your country,
- 28:30it's really important. It is an announcement that usually happens once a year. Let me
- 28:34be sorry to think about it as your personal finances. You set a budget. What will you spend on?
- 28:39What will you not spend on? What will you cut back on? What will you put away and say for a rainy
- 28:44day? All of that. That's exactly what a country budget is. It's exactly the same. There's one part
- 28:50in the Australian budget that has been focused on this year and that is capital gains tax, which is
- 28:58the tax on usually any gain that you make on an investment. You pay capital gains tax on
- 29:05very slightly different countries. But back in 1999, Australia introduced a rule that if you hold
- 29:12an asset, so property, she is, whatever, for more than a year, you only pay tax. So you only pay
- 29:19capital gains tax on 50% of your profit. So half of your profit. The other half, the government
- 29:25just ignores. So if you invested in shares and you made $5,000 in gain, so as you're kind of
- 29:33profit, you'd only be taxed on two and a half thousand. That's so great. So genius thing. The other
- 29:41two and a half thousand you just get to keep. So you're only taxed on 50% of the gain. Is that
- 29:45across the board with any investment, property, shares, etc? Gosh, that's so good. So you can think,
- 29:51if property investors had held their houses for decades, you're making a couple of mill,
- 29:58that's huge. And they only pay income tax or whatever on half of their income. So you may
- 30:043 million on a house and that you'd howard for decades and decades and through certain family
- 30:10members, then you only have to pay tax on 1.5 million. I think a really interesting way to think
- 30:16about this is in the same way, and I don't know why it took me so long for this to land, but in the
- 30:21same way, you pay tax on the money you earn from your job. So there's different tax brackets,
- 30:27depending on what amount you're looking at, etc. But the idea is any money that you make, the
- 30:32government takes a percentage of to spread and use within their budget to pay for things like
- 30:37roads or healthcare or whatever. This is essentially like saying 50% of your income is not taxed.
- 30:45Because so many people are making a lot of money. I know that's what I mean. It's almost like
- 30:50money makes money, right? Because the people who would have been offended from this is the ones who
- 30:54have a lot of money. Because they're like brilliant. I can invest and invest and invest. And only half
- 30:59of the amount of money I'm making my income from my investments are getting taxed on. Like amazing.
- 31:04So the budget has announced that from July 20th, 2017, so in the next year, that 50% discount.
- 31:13So the 50% you don't have to pay capital gains tax on will be replaced by what they're calling
- 31:19cost-based indexation. It's essentially it's inflation-injusted and I'm going to explain
- 31:23in a second. It just means that will adjust the original purchase price for inflation.
- 31:30So you only tax on the real gain. So the profit over and above inflation amount. So I need an
- 31:37example. So let's say we have what should we call her? Come up with a fun name, fun name, fun name.
- 31:44What about we call her Cecil? Cecilia. Cecilia, gorgeous. Yeah. Cecilia, she's 28. She lives in Melbourne.
- 31:52And she has been investing in shares three years ago. I know I can't stop thinking Cecilia.
- 31:57Three years ago. Cecilia put $10,000 into an index fund. Yeah. And today it's worth 20,000.
- 32:04So she's made $10,000 in profit. Amazing. Now she decides to sell. So she's got
- 32:10$20,000 worth of shares and $10,000 that is profit. So under the old rules, she's made $10,000
- 32:16profit. She would have only paid income tax on five capital gains tax or five thousand. Yeah,
- 32:21exactly. Which is half of the profit. Yes. So under the new rules, that's gone. So we take her
- 32:28full 10,000 gain and we adjust it for inflation. So let's say inflation over the last three years
- 32:35added about $1,500. So her real gain, so if you take away 15,500, 1,500 from that, her real gain,
- 32:46so her kind of ex-inflation gain is 8,500. Okay. So she's tax on that. Oh, shit. So she's actually
- 32:535,000, definitely. It's great if inflation's really high. So say inflation's been super high
- 32:59of that three-year period. But she should be honest, it might be in the next five years. But like
- 33:03the likelihood of getting up to 50%, you know, I mean, if you held it for over a long period of
- 33:08time, it might get there. Yeah. So it's only going to really be in a really high inflation
- 33:14environment, would it kind of be anywhere near that 50% discount. Your tax on the whole 100% now,
- 33:19but just a little bit is an adjusted inflation, if that makes sense. So if you're an investor in
- 33:22Australia, this is not ideal. Yeah. It's definitely your paying more to the government for the
- 33:27returns that you're making. Yeah. You're pretty pissed off. And this is not just property.
- 33:31This is shares. This is ETFs. This is every asset, really. Who do you think that's going to impact
- 33:36the most? Look, they brought it in and the whole preface that the Australian government put it in
- 33:41the budget was because they wanted to go after wealthy property investors that had made a lot of
- 33:46money over many, many years and sitting on decades of property gains. But they've applied it to all
- 33:52assets. So I'm like, hang on, it doesn't actually solve that problem. And younger Australians are
- 33:59the ones that are going to be building wealth that are more likely to build wealth in shares, ETFs,
- 34:03index funds, because they're kind of forward property. So they're getting penalised. Yeah, I can't
- 34:10figure out what they were trying to achieve here. Can we look at the rest of the world? What is going
- 34:16on in the UK in relation to capital gains tax? Yep. And just generally, what is standard?
- 34:21Is it standard to be taxed on everything or not? Well, the UK's actually got a tougher stance on
- 34:27capital gains tax in Australia. So you pay capital gains tax on the full game every time.
- 34:33And I guess that's why ISIS are great, because you can put 20,000 into your stocks and shares
- 34:38ISIS or your cash ISIS. And those 40 debted. It's less now, isn't it? It's only 12,000 cash.
- 34:43Yes, for the cash ISIS. But essentially, that amount for every single person is tax free,
- 34:49which I think is quite good because it means that people who are trying to build up wealth
- 34:53have the same almost legal as people that have a lot of money. Yeah. Yeah. You're giving everyone
- 34:59the same kind of starting platform, I guess. And then anything over and above that is tax.
- 35:03Which makes, I think that's great. It makes sense. And then in the UK, your main home is
- 35:07exempt from capital gains tax. But you know, if you start buying second third homes, they're
- 35:11interesting. So and that's the same in Australia, your main home is exempt. In New Zealand?
- 35:18No, capital gains tax. There's a bit of a nuance. If you sell the investment property in most
- 35:23cases, you know, if you sold it for a million dollars, you get to keep, you know, the full profit.
- 35:27That's clear. It is what we call a bright line's test, which is a certain number of years that
- 35:31you have to hold the property. Otherwise, you get tax. So that's just to stop the flipping,
- 35:35like house appliances. But she is business assets commercial property, like pretty much completely
- 35:40untouched. So it's, that is why, you know, we have a lot of wealthy people buying property,
- 35:47particular in New Zealand. Not only because it's just such a great country, but because, yeah,
- 35:53there's just, there is very little tax. We've got a very attractive tax environment in New Zealand.
- 35:58But if we look at that, let's say in five years time, they did bring in capital gains on
- 36:04everything. What does it mean for everyone that currently owns it? Did do a lot of people just
- 36:08plan on, then they sell it before it comes into play and then, you know, because it's almost,
- 36:12I feel in the same way when they raise retirement ages. If you've been planning your whole life
- 36:17and you're a tourist hire at 65 and they raise it to 70, there's got to be a grace period, right?
- 36:22Yeah, they're usually always with tax changes that we like. Like this one's not coming into for
- 36:27another year. So I don't even know what that does in terms of, is there going to be a flood of
- 36:32people selling now, selling shares, selling property, you know, before it comes into play.
- 36:38But usually there is, yeah, when they raise a retirement age, for example, they say, you know,
- 36:42anyone born before ex, you know, like it's not like, it's not like they're going to hit the 64-year-olds
- 36:47and be like, oh, you've got to live two years. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You know, it's hit their hitting the
- 36:51kind of the 40-year-olds or the 50-year-olds that have enough time to plan. But it's so hard for
- 36:58politicians to change tax or bring in new tax because you're always impacting someone. If you're
- 37:04trying to target older generations, like this is what this was supposed to target, but actually
- 37:10there was a rule and I might get this wrong, but something to do with any property bought before
- 37:15like 1985 or something is exempt or there's, you know, there's some kind of asset. But because,
- 37:21and then I've read somewhere that, yes, they're trying to fix like intergenerational unfairness,
- 37:27like that was what they highlighted, but they're protecting older Australians because they've got
- 37:34the biggest voting power. Like they're the ones that show up and vote the most. So as politicians,
- 37:41you've got to be careful that you don't, you know, yes, you can piss off younger Australians,
- 37:45very few people turn out to vote in terms of the younger cohort percentage wise versus older
- 37:49people. So yeah, it's, there's so much of this going on in the UK at the moment. Everyone's
- 37:55really not happy with who's currently in charge and we might have a new UK Prime Minister at
- 38:01the time has come down. Yeah, I mean, honestly, the whole, it's really interesting because I would
- 38:04normally not be paying attention towards going on, but it's just the idea of you kind of can't
- 38:10you know, if someone else goes in and then they go take the country into even more debt, it's not
- 38:15I did, you know, I think that seeing stuff like this happen, I guess you don't even really know
- 38:19how it's going to impact people until you've given it a few years, but often someone new comes in
- 38:24and a few years and then changes it. It's just, yeah, totally. If you bring in exhausting.
- 38:28If you bring in a tax change that pisses off enough people, you get booted out and the tax change
- 38:33doesn't even make it in because you've lost your job and some other parties in power. So
- 38:40and then nobody's going to vote you in if your campaign is to increase taxes. So
- 38:45one of the things I think is quite interesting about this is a few, I don't know, this is quite
- 38:50controversial, but if you look at China who are obviously making decisions about their entire
- 38:55economy in a communist way, you know, it's yeah, but they're also investing in companies in the country
- 39:02with a hundred year view. So the decisions that they're making are not short term. While obviously
- 39:08there's a lot of complex things that are not ideal when it comes to that kind of set up
- 39:12to be building businesses, the economy, making decisions on a long future. The idea of that
- 39:19is actually quite clever because I think it's hard though. How do you do that without a dictatorship?
- 39:24I know, I know. It's the same with companies, right? You have CEOs that come in for a couple of years
- 39:30that want to bring around short term change and then you've got founders that take those long term
- 39:36views and it's exactly the same. It would be so amazing if you could find a middle ground between
- 39:40not actual communism or dictatorship, but more long term thinking because the stuff that's
- 39:46coming out of China in terms of their innovation around what the world needs to see for climate
- 39:50changes. Incredible. The stuff they're investing in, but you know, there's obviously all the downside
- 39:54of what that comes with. We have a community question, which actually is a really good one.
- 40:01Long time listener and lurker, I have a question about hedging. I'm not sure if it has been covered
- 40:07or not before. I just can't understand it. Every time I look into it and keep seeing funds or ETF,
- 40:13which are hedged versus unhedged, what do they mean? Oh, so hedging is when you're kind of,
- 40:18it's kind of like if you're hedging your bets, you know, like you are trying to balance out the
- 40:23impact of foreign exchange or like currency impacts. So with ETFs, most ETFs are probably
- 40:31investing in US companies, so they'll be in US dollars. So if they're hedged, then that means that
- 40:38they are trying to kind of offset the US dollar currency because we're investing from New Zealand
- 40:45or from Australia or from the UK. Could you give an example of when some of my hedge? Well,
- 40:49sorry. Okay. ETFs, she says, you know, she keeps seeing funds or ETFs which are hedged or unhedged.
- 40:54So say I was going to invest in an ETF, the S&P 500 ETF, top 500 companies in US, all of those
- 41:00companies are in US dollars because they're listed on US stock exchange. And that ETF was hedged
- 41:07to GBP, so to British pound. That means that I don't get the impact of the hedging. I don't
- 41:15have to personally take the currency movements. They've kind of done it within the ETF.
- 41:20Oh, okay. Does that make sense? So if you're looking at the return on that ETF, you know that
- 41:26you're not losing out based on the currency exchange. So if it's a higher return. So but then why?
- 41:33So let's say there was a normal S&P 500 ETF that wasn't hedged and then there's one that was
- 41:38hedged. Then you should get the impact of if the US, because you're then converting that US dollars
- 41:42into into pounds or into New Zealand dollars or into Australian dollars. So if the currency
- 41:48moves in different ways and you've got a lot of a lot of your money invested in the ETF, you're
- 41:52going to have you're going to have quite a quite an impact. But why what would be a, because surely
- 41:57it's just it would net out to be the same, right? In terms of if you aren't hedged and then
- 42:03your the currency is like taken into account in terms of the return you get versus one that is
- 42:09surely doesn't it just net net in terms of? So the ETF is yes, but the ETF provider is doing
- 42:15is doing what we call the hedging. So they're buying kind of future contracts to lock in currency.
- 42:20So it doesn't impact. So you could earn more. You could if you took an un hedged or like and
- 42:26un you just were like, you know what? I'm just going to like weather the currency impacts and I'm
- 42:32not I'm going to buy an un hedged ETF. That means that whatever happens happens in terms of currency,
- 42:39you haven't got ETF providers or fund providers and they're trying to offset the impacts. So if
- 42:46you're buying an ETF that is hedged or un hedged whatever they're trying to alleviate the impact
- 42:51of the currency. So will you pay more for that? Because is it is the is the fee for that going to be
- 42:56higher because they're doing more of the work or is it sort of not really? Because ETFs are normally
- 43:02really low fees. Like you normally pay locks as computer generators. Yeah. So they'd be
- 43:07also be a computer generating that. Right. Those forward contracts to make sure that they're
- 43:11locking in the price and like. So I just don't understand why you so would ever be best to just hedge.
- 43:16I've got a good example. Okay. It's like airlines. Yeah. So let's say they were like, you know,
- 43:21they didn't kind of forward buy any oil and lock in a price. Kind of like a mortgage. You know,
- 43:28you're locking in a price for a separate period of time. Yeah. So let's say I was I was an airline
- 43:34company and I was like, you know what? Yes, oil is my biggest expense, but you know what?
- 43:39Screw it. I'm just going to like weather the movements. Whatever they are. And we're now in this
- 43:44environment where oil has gone through the roof. I'm certainly going shit. I should have hedged.
- 43:48I should have locked in a forward contract for the price of oil. Yes, when that rolls over,
- 43:54then I might jump up to the high part, but at least I've got consistency and I know and I'm not
- 43:58like dealing with these volatile movements of this oil price every day. It's kind of like that,
- 44:05but with currency. It's a way to try and get a better return because you think like, okay,
- 44:11if there's a big movement, maybe I can lock in some of that gain and not be hugely impacted in terms
- 44:18of the return, but I'm not a currency. I don't know where the currency is going to go. So for me,
- 44:22personally, I'm like, I'm just going to look at what it is. It is what it is kind of that. So annoying
- 44:27there's so many things. I think it's one of those things that probably like don't stress about.
- 44:31You'll get the gain if the currency falls. It's almost like you get a loss if it rises and then
- 44:40you're not converting the US dollars to his lower currency. You know, like you kind of
- 44:45unless you really understand currency and how it works, like you're probably not going to,
- 44:49you know, I mean, heaps better. And it's also dependent on who is hedging because how good are
- 44:54they at hedging? Like that's essentially you're kind of like, if it's a fund, if it's a managed
- 44:59fund, you're investing, you know, I could try and hedge as a portfolio manager, but I don't
- 45:04if I trust you to hedge it, but you know, like it's more, they've got to be really good and have
- 45:09views of all the countries and the movements and their currencies. And we're interested,
- 45:13interest rate changes impacts currency a lot, if they're like not expected. And so there's so,
- 45:20it's way more economical in terms of taking a view on the currency.
- 45:23I'm just going to really wrap this up because I'm so bored of this. Sorry, I'm just like
- 45:29hedging, unhidging, not your fault. It's just a kind of a boring thing. I feel like I've got
- 45:33there in the, I'm probably talking about it. Sorry, I know you're not boring. My point is this
- 45:36whole thing, I'm just like it feels to me complicated for no reason. I think if you, unless you're
- 45:41a currency expert, maybe don't worry about the hedging. No, like I think there's options you can
- 45:45buy hedged or unhidged. It's kind of like she's saying. So, and I also maybe what we're getting
- 45:50here is this is not advice, it's not advice, but like unless you're an expert when it comes to
- 45:55understanding whether hedged or unhidged is going to make you better off or you feel confident in
- 46:00that, then if you weather the currency exchange, whether it's up or down, it's probably going to
- 46:06be similar to dollar cost averaging. If you invest regularly, you're going to be getting stuff
- 46:10that's cheaper and stuff that's more expensive, but you know, is that kind of a good... Kind of,
- 46:15it's more like... Me, I'm just going to wrap it up and make it simple. I'm obviously not doing
- 46:19a very good job of it. Yeah, let's just leave it at that. It's kind of like if you want more
- 46:25information on hedging, we can do a... Yeah, do dive on that. There'll probably be about
- 46:31two listeners. Yeah. Maybe we'll do a little vote on this episode. If you aren't interested in
- 46:37that, let us know. We'll just do a little yes or no. I'm assuming it's going to be a no, but like
- 46:41you never know. Oh my god, if that could... Before we wrap up, I do just need to do a little PSA,
- 46:47FYI, for anyone that is listening and who is interested in our property podcast. Yes.
- 46:53The episode coming out this week is with Holly. She's so great. She's actually a lawyer, but
- 47:00this story is not about law. It's about essentially what happened before she knew what she needed
- 47:06to protect herself when it comes to buying property or the partner. This is kind of the property
- 47:11story from Helen or honesty and it's so juicy. I loved that she was comfortable talking about it
- 47:17with us. It happened so long ago that I think she can look back and have hindsight, but she's also
- 47:21built her whole business around trying to help other people not ending up in this situation. So
- 47:26for anyone that is interested in property, definitely listen this Thursday when that episode comes
- 47:30out. Let's play a really short snippet or play just like a little trailer to give you a taste.
- 47:35You've had the most outrageous experience with I shouldn't laugh because there's actually nothing
- 47:40funny about this story. And we can laugh now. We were literally maybe one month away from finishing.
- 47:46Windows were in, walls were painted, kitchen was in. I got a text that day at work for my partner
- 47:51being like, is your mum still coming for dinner? And I was like, yeah, it was there and he's like,
- 47:55I don't think she should. I was like, okay, that's really weird. I just had this gut feeling.
- 48:00I'm nobody saw this coming. I didn't see it coming. I was away for the day with like some girlfriends
- 48:05and I got home and one of our friends said, oh, Holly, I don't think we should go in the house.
- 48:10Nobody who was meant for me would ever do that to me in my life. So then we face a three year
- 48:16court battle over this house. It was one of the most horrific processes I think I've ever been
- 48:20through in my life. I've spent tens of thousands on lawyers filing this evidence four years of my
- 48:26life for a judge to sit there and look at me and go, I haven't read any of it and it was time to
- 48:31move on with my life and realise that there is way more to life than money.
- 48:39But have a great week everyone. Why are you laughing? Because I thought you're going to say
- 48:43Vic and I was going, thanks. I mean, have a great week. You're too sorry. Have a great week.
- 49:13We're also around all week on socials if you're hungry for more curve content and all the links
- 49:17are in this podcast store notes. We hope you have a great week and we'll catch you for the next
- 49:21episode of the Curve Weekly on mumble.
- 49:31Okay, quickly the curve was created to empower and educate you about investing but we are not
- 49:35financial advisors. Our platform exists for educational purposes only and it doesn't provide
- 49:40personalised investing advice for your individual needs and should not be relied upon to make
- 49:44an investment or financial decision and always remember to do your own research before making
- 49:49any investment or financial decision. We're here for any knowledge and support you need but
- 49:53the final call is always yours and thanks for being here. You got this. Yeah, we know you got this.