Latest / USA House Partners Podcast / The Housing Market Is Shifting—Here's What Smart Buyers & Sellers Should Do
Transcript
- Greg Raymer: Welcome to the USA House Partners podcast. You'd never know it by seeing his current wardrobe of gym trunks and t-shirts, but your host won Best Dressed in his high school. Best dressed guy. You know, when I reminisce way back to when I was a baseball pitcher, both in college and professionally, there were days when it just took a little longer to warm up. And that's exactly the kind of month it's been there in the housing market, too. It's finally starting to warm up. So let's get into it. Hello everybody. Welcome back to the USA House Partners podcast. Once a month, we hit pause on the regular buyer and seller playbooks and just talk about what's actually happening in the real estate market right now. Rates, the numbers, the headlines, stuff you're probably hearing about, but nobody's translating it into plain English for you. So whether you're one of our VIP buyers working toward your first set of keys, or you're a smart seller thinking about what your home is worth right now, this episode's for you. So let's talk July 2026. Let's start with the number everybody always asks about mortgage rates. Right now, the 30-year fixed is setting in that mid-six range. Most trackers put it this week somewhere between 6.4%, 6.6%. It's bounced around day to day, up a little, down a little, but it's basically been parked in this same band for weeks now. And here's the context that matters. The Federal Reserve has held its benchmark rate. Steady all year in a three and a half to three point seven five range. They're not cutting right now because inflation hasn't cooled off as much as they'd like and the job market is still holding up. They've got another meeting at the end of July, but nobody's expecting fireworks. So here's the plain English version. Rates aren't crashing back down to pandemic levels. That's just not the environment we're in. But they're also not spiking. Major ⁓ most economists are saying expect rates to stay sticky in the mid six neighborhood throughout the rest of the year, essentially. That's actually useful information because it means you can actually plan around it instead of waiting on a rate drop that may not come. Now here's where it gets interesting on both sides of the table. Inventory, meaning how many homes are actually for sale, has been climbing for well over two years straight now. As of the latest count, active listings are up around three percent from the month before and the the total inventory sets around a little over four months of supply nationally. Now that's more breathing room for buyers than we've seen in quite a while. But, and this is the part people miss, more inventory doesn't mean prices are falling off a cliff. The national median existing home price is still up slightly year over year, continuing a streak of gains going back nearly three years. Prices are softening in some markets, especially parts of Florida and the Sunbelt where a lot of new construction is going on. But in the Midwest and Northeast, inventory is still tight and sellers are holding more leverage. So here's the honest answer. If someone asks you if is this a buyer's market or a seller's market right now, it just depends entirely on your zip code. Nationally, we're calling this a rebalancing year, not a crash. So who's actually buying right now? Here's a stat that surprised me. First time buyers made up thirty five percent of all purchases last month, and that's the highest share since twenty twenty. That's what we refer to here in the podcast as our VIP buyers showing up in the data. Also, affordability is actually improving a little bit because mostly ⁓ incomes have been rising slightly faster than home prices in a lot of markets. That's not fireworks, but it is real progress. And it lines up with something we talk about constantly on this show. You don't need a perfect rate environment to become a homeowner. You need the right financing structure for your situation. That's a big reason we'll keep talking about how we help. Buyers who didn't qualify the traditional way and they still got their foot in the door and became a homeowner. So remember, if you're a VIP first-time buyer thinking about buying, just know that rates probably aren't dropping dramatically anytime soon. So waiting for a rate rescue is not a strategy. You know inventory's up, which means more options and slightly less pressure to make a rust decision. Bottom line. If you don't qualify traditionally, this is a good month to explore alternative paths. That's a full episode on its own, and we'll got one coming for you next week on that. Alternatively, if you are a smart seller thinking about selling, prices are still positive nationally, but barely. So pricing your home accurately matters more than it has in years. Excuse me, geographical good news. If you're in a tighter inventory region like the Midwest or Northeast, likely you still have real leverage. Just remember, creating competition for your home. Rather than just listing and hoping. Matters more in a rebalancing market like this one, not less. So that's your July market update. Rates steady in the mid-sixes, inventory climbing but not flooding. Prices still positive but cooling in spots. And first time buyers showing up in record numbers. Nothing earth shattering. Just a housing market finding its footing. So we'll be back with our regular ⁓ episodes for VIP buyers and smart sellers next week at we'll catch you here in August for the next market update. So as we close out and go into our week, I'd like you to remember the words of Proverbs chapter three verses thirty three and thirty four. The Lord blesses the home of the righteous with the wise inheriting honor and the humble receiving favor. Take care and we'll see you on the next episode of USA House Partners Podcast.