Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Drink Progression, Pickles & a Parlay | NFL Week 14

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Drink Progression, Pickles & a Parlay | NFL Week 14 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, presented by Draft Kings. The crown
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: is yours. Happy Thursday. NFL Week fourteen is here. We
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: got a good one tonight between the Cowboys and the Lions.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: I'm Brandon Kravitz, your gracious hosts joined my two faves
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: and your two faves, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation,
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Stucky and the Queen of the Pod, Miss Kendra Middleton.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: We'll hear from them in a moment. On today's episode,
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: we'll submit our official plays of the week. We've got
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: our stat of the day, two Kings and a Queen parlay,
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Kendra's pickle, prop action or distraction, your favorite game show,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: and we planted our flag on Tuesday Bengals, Falcons, Ravens.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: In case you missed it, let's kick things off with
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams shrimply unbelievable stat of the week, straight from
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: the primer. We're gonna go down to Jacksonville for this one.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Since twenty fifteen, Indianapolis three sixteen and one ats against
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars, one and nine ats away from Indianapolis after
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: last week. Daniel Jones for eleven and one straight up
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: playing outdoors against teams allowing under twenty points per game.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: This Jags defense has been pretty good. The Jags also
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: have won every game in Jacksonville against the Colts since
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: twenty fourteen. Shout out to Blake Bortles and their underdogs.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: And this is a Jaggs podcast, Kendra, this feels like
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: an auto bet.
• 1:34
  Speaker 2: I could see how people who are not Jags fans
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: believe that. This feels like I'm getting a little too
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: close to the fire. The last couple of seasons have
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: been probably times where I thought I would fade the
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: Jaguars eventually, but didn't. I think this is the year.
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: It feels like there's something in the air. We just
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: saw Ohio State beat Michigan. It feels like there's some
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: weird just curse coming back to reap.
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: I think that this might be the time that happens
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: for the Colts.
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: Still, like Eric Armstead popped up on the Jags and
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: drew report out of nowhere and now has a club
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: on his arm.
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: Just some weird injuries. I thought Hunter Long was going
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: to be back last.
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: Week still, just because of the nature of me expecting
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: him to be back and him not coming back. Don't
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: know what's going on with him. Obviously, Brenton Strange has
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: been huge for them. Trayvon Walker is still a bit
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: of a question mark about what's going on with him.
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: I know that Daniel Jones is playing with a broken leg,
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: which you know what. We're a Jags podcast. I was
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: born and raised in Juval County, but playing with a
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: broken leg is pretty badass for me.
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: I just can't.
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: I did back the Jags once once recently, we'll stick
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: with that. Can't get to the number here. Think it
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: feels a little just too spooky for me as a
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: person and as a fan because it feels like we're
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: trending so upward right now that it's coming out Jags.
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: I do think that they have the easiest schedule of
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: remaining the rest of the year, still going to make
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: the playoffs. Don't know if they survive a first round.
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: But it just feels like there's something in the air
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: after the Ohio State Michigan game that makes me feel
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: like I can't. I can't do it the way I
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: will say. The Jags are going balls to the wall
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: this week. The crowd is going to be out there,
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: They're pushing people to come. They're giving out a bunch
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: of free crap saying that this is like the biggest
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: regular season game we've had in a long time.
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: Fans will be out there, it will be loud. I
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: just I'm spooked.
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: Okay, So that was a long winded way of saying
• 3:20
  Speaker 4: what or do you like the drags or not? I
• 3:23
  Speaker 4: don't know.
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: I don't Uh.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: Do you want to throw any more cold water on
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: this stucky or are you in I have already placed
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: this bet, by the way, and I'm going to make
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: a case for it, a full case for it later
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: in the show.
• 3:36
  Speaker 4: Uh.
• 3:37
  Speaker 5: I think it's like a coin foot game.
• 3:38
  Speaker 4: So well lean that way that the injuries for the
• 3:41
  Speaker 4: Jags are definitely worth watching, Like they could really use
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: armstead Walker. I mean, they got some some of their
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: linebackers Solocan and Lloyd popped up on the injury report,
• 3:53
  Speaker 4: Parker Washington, a couple offensive linemen. The Colts defense isn't
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: the same without Buckner, and then obviously without Gardner doesn't
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: have the same ceiling and flexibility to do things with
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: him locking down one side of the field. So those
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: are big losses. I mean with the Colts when they
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: have both Grover Steart and DeForrest Buckner, in the game.
• 4:18
  Speaker 4: They're allowing close to one yard fewer per carry, So
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: and whenever I look at a Jags game, the first
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: handicap for me is can they run the ball? And
• 4:30
  Speaker 4: when Liam Cohen offense can run the ball, and when
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: they have been able to run the ball this year,
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: everything else kind of flows from there. Jacoby Myers has
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: been an incredible addition. I mean, he's been great right
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: from the jump. He's also not dropping passes, which has
• 4:44
  Speaker 4: plagued their receivers. Parker Washington's also been pretty good. He's
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: dealing with an injury as well, so the Jags have
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: a lot of injuries. But yeah, I mean Daniel Jones
• 4:53
  Speaker 4: without this is why I would like the Jags at
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: their full defense, because if they're able to get pressure
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: on Jones, he just doesn't have the same lateral movement.
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: Oh, if they were healthy, I'd be all over the
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: Jags right now.
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: But if you're really like feeding for action in this game,
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: you're just like a sicko who loves the AFC South.
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: I think the overs the play here.
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I mean, so I would I guess I
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: would lean Jags with the points were really high leverage
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: game because I mean, if you look at what the Colts,
• 5:23
  Speaker 4: who were sitting very pretty and.
• 5:26
  Speaker 5: I mean they're lucky they pulled out.
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: Now granted they probably should have beat the Chiefs, but
• 5:30
  Speaker 4: they're lucky they pulled out that game against the Falcons
• 5:32
  Speaker 4: in overtime because if not, they would have lost four straight.
• 5:36
  Speaker 4: And their remaining schedule is at Jacksonville, place where they
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: have had no success as evident you alluded to, at Seattle,
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: San fran Jacksonville again at Houston. I mean, their last
• 5:50
  Speaker 4: five games are against five potential playoff teams. Four of
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: them are in the playoffs as of this moment. So yeah,
• 5:58
  Speaker 4: huge game, and then the jack if they can get
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: this game, and then say the Chiefs beat the Texans
• 6:05
  Speaker 4: on Sunday night, regardless that result will still be in
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: first place. But if you kind of I think that
• 6:11
  Speaker 4: the Texans are kind of charging and they might be
• 6:14
  Speaker 4: more dangerous than the Colts at the moment. So they
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: can get those two results this week and then you're
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: you know, probably a double digit favorite next week against
• 6:23
  Speaker 4: the Jets at home, You're at the Broncos. That's a
• 6:27
  Speaker 4: winnable game. You get the Colts again, then you're home
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: against the Titans to end the season. So yeah, just
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: a huge game for both teams. Given the schedules, the
• 6:35
  Speaker 4: opportunity for the Jags is there if they can get
• 6:38
  Speaker 4: this game where then they've been good at home. I mean,
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: if you look at the Jags this year, they beat
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: the Texans, they beat the Chiefs, so they have they
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: dominated the Chargers, so they have some good results at
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: home and they have some good results over playoff.
• 6:53
  Speaker 5: Teams this year.
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: So I mean they want at San Francisco when San
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: Francisco was healthier than they are right now. So yeah,
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: huge game for both teams. Like if the Colts lose this,
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: alarms are gonna start to go off in Indianapolis say win.
• 7:08
  Speaker 5: Yeah, dennef Jags went excitement and all big time.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Four wins in a row. If the Jags end up
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: winning this one, the Colts remaining schedule is tough. The
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: percentage chance if the Colts win this game, they have
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: a fifty four percent chance to win the division, fourteen
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: percent chance if they lose. For the Jags, it goes
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: up to sixty five percent with a win, nineteen percent
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: with a loss. And it's one of many games this week.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: It's one of the reasons. I think this could be
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: This could go down as the best week of the
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: season when all is said and done, if we were
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: to go back and rerank it Bears, Packers, Colts, Jags, Chiefs, Texans, Ravens, Steelers, Cowboys, Lions.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: All of these games have either major division implications or
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: playoff implications where we could we could essentially see teams eliminated,
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: really good teams that are bounced with a loss, and
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: teams that set themselves up for success in.
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: Three games for first place in the divisions.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Awesome. That's as good as it gets. So we're gonna
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: give out some of our plays coming up in a bit.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: I saw a YouTube comment on one of our recent streams.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: It said it's hard to take this podcast seriously when
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: they're interjecting these random conversations about nothing. And with that said,
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: it's time to kick it over to Stucky for our
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: random question of the week.
• 8:23
  Speaker 5: Hey, this is a dumb question.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: Let me ask you a personal question kind of question?
• 8:30
  Speaker 6: Is that it is?
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Question?
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: Yeah? Well, sorry to that first, and we try we
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: try to mix in some fun and some stories on
• 8:37
  Speaker 4: this podcast hopefully enjoy most of you enjoy. Well, let
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: me start with this what is your what what is
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: your life progression of your main drink? So your drink
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: in life, I think it says a lot about a person,
• 8:52
  Speaker 4: all right, Right, So like I went, I mean when
• 8:56
  Speaker 4: I was like real young, like middle school, would steal,
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: like we would steal my dad's doors, which is why,
• 9:02
  Speaker 4: like I've I've never fallen completely in love with like
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: brown liquor. And then I would move on to like
• 9:07
  Speaker 4: this the most disgusting, Like I remember, like freshman year
• 9:11
  Speaker 4: of high school, we would just like chug bottles of
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: a cardio, like the sweetest, Oh my god, it's at
• 9:18
  Speaker 4: then like I remember like Southern comfort shots, Oh god,
• 9:23
  Speaker 4: Soco lime shots. But then in college I was big
• 9:28
  Speaker 4: Gin and Tonic, gotten really big into Hendrix College.
• 9:32
  Speaker 5: Yep, Hendricks and Tonic, And.
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: Then what kind of money were you balling? Within college?
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: What the hell we were drinking like quarter pictures of beer.
• 9:43
  Speaker 4: Oh well in high school too, I should mention, uh,
• 9:46
  Speaker 4: Natty Light, I mean Natty.
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: Ice and every other high schooler Natty Ice.
• 9:52
  Speaker 5: That was Natty Ice Kegs and.
• 9:56
  Speaker 4: Yeah. So but then yeah, Jin and Tonic, and then
• 9:59
  Speaker 4: I went to Double Tito's Yellow Red Bull first for years.
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: So I was Red Bull vodka, and then my twenties,
• 10:11
  Speaker 4: and then I went to Yellow Red Bull, and then
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: since I guess I've matured, I'm I'll have occasional bourbon,
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: but I mainly just drank water during the week and
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: then on weekends, I'm mainly double Tito's soda line.
• 10:27
  Speaker 5: That's my drink as of now, So that's kind of
• 10:28
  Speaker 5: my progression.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: I wrote a book about mine. It started back at
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: sixteen years old with smirnoff ice, followed by a progression
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: to then I got to light beer, of course, because
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: then you get to an age where you're only drinking
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: out of kegs. And then then I converted to pumpkin
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: ale when I found that you can actually drink beer
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: that has flavor and enjoy it. Then I realized that
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: I wasn't getting inebriated enough, so we switched to IPA's.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: Then you went through the liquor stage, jamison with picklebacks,
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: moheedos out at the beach, gin and tonics if we're
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: at a wedding, dirty martini when you're feeling fancy. And
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: now I'm pretty much back on the beer and some
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: red wine. But that's been the progression throughout my life.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: What about you, Kendra?
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: Okay, I'm kind of boring.
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: I was like a homeschooled freak until college, so I
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: didn't go to any party. As my first high school
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: party I ever went to, I was eighteen and I
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: literally went in to get my friend's little sister out
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: and left, And that was my first high school party.
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: So when I was in college, I went through like
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: a big michelob ultra phase. And if I was drinking
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: liquor at the bar because you could get into the
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: bar with anybody's ID in.
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: The SEC, I was tequila water with lime.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Now, oh, straight to the fucking point with that. Yeah.
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: Like I've always been into like the health and fitness thing,
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: which is crazy to say when you're talking about alcohol,
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: But now I don't drink unless I'm on vacation, so
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: I would say like beer, Guinness, Jamison, Ginger.
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: Or if they have blue cheese olives, I.
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: Want like the swampiest dirty blue cheese olive martini ever.
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: Like I want mostly all of Jews with a little
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: bit of vodka.
• 12:10
  Speaker 4: You went from homeschool to the SEC.
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: Yeah, girl, I sure did.
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: Yeah, that can't be many many people who have made
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: that jump.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: Surprised in the South, how many people are keeping their
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: kids home from school?
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that is also true. Yeah, I did go.
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: I went from homeschooling to interning in San Francisco for
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: sixteen months, and then to the SEC and then to
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: you and ah woo.
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: Kevin, how about you? I mean, I know your drinks.
• 12:39
  Speaker 6: But started with vodka and went to whiskey. I think
• 12:43
  Speaker 6: would be the easiest way to explain my progression.
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: Simple man, all right. And then one final, one bonus question.
• 12:49
  Speaker 4: Do you have to answer this? What is your mount?
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: Rushmore of TV shows that.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: We have a specific genre, like are we going common?
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: Just you have to answered with four or four TV shows?
• 13:03
  Speaker 4: Obviously the wire for me is on there. I'll say
• 13:05
  Speaker 4: the wire Sopranos, Uh, justified and and I should have
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: thought of this ahead of time. And then I'll say
• 13:17
  Speaker 4: There's so many I want to say, but then I'll
• 13:18
  Speaker 4: say breaking bad. Rushmore is a Love Island, Love Island,
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: Love Island, UK, Love.
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: Island, Survivor, Love Survivor Lost, and Game of Thrones probably
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: my my top three, and then Love Island probably for
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: I do like Love Island, but I only watched the
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: UK in the US.
• 13:39
  Speaker 4: You know what was really good I think I just
• 13:41
  Speaker 4: uh that I was able to watch when I was
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: sick was Task on HBO, which recently came out six
• 13:50
  Speaker 4: Show Brandon, I know you're you have bay Watch as
• 13:55
  Speaker 4: one of.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: Your Sure, Yeah, that's an that's an auto. That's an
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: auto face on that. We got to put Pam Anderson's
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: face on the mountain. We're building a mountain with faces, guys.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: This is an obvious choice. I'll add Dexter to the list,
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: the Office and succession.
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: I don't get the Office thing.
• 14:12
  Speaker 4: Dexter got so bad.
• 14:13
  Speaker 5: I couldn't even finish, like it was good.
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I did watch.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: It was so good early on that I just rode
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: the wave. But yeah, they were kind of peaks at
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: season three or four.
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: Season one. Mount Rushmore is uh, weeds, but then it
• 14:27
  Speaker 4: got bad happen? Do you have you have a Mount
• 14:28
  Speaker 4: Rushmore TV? Yeah?
• 14:31
  Speaker 6: I mean I'll just list off, like probably my favorites
• 14:34
  Speaker 6: like Wire Thrones, Black Mirror, Squid Game, Ozark. I'm a
• 14:43
  Speaker 6: zombie guy, so like Stranger Things, Walking Dead's cool.
• 14:46
  Speaker 5: Uh.
• 14:47
  Speaker 6: The the one that's under the radar that people might
• 14:49
  Speaker 6: like the most, like Night of is one I would
• 14:52
  Speaker 6: recommend that's like, that's good. A lot of people don't know, uh, narcos.
• 14:56
  Speaker 6: I don't know things of that nature, but I've watched
• 14:58
  Speaker 6: a lot.
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: I like nod any show where I don't have to
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: follow it in sequential order to me, and it's a
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: rare occurrence. I find very entertaining.
• 15:08
  Speaker 5: It might be my favorite overall.
• 15:10
  Speaker 6: But I'm a sick of like I'm a deep sicko,
• 15:12
  Speaker 6: which you kind of have to be for that show.
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: Next time, I think we should just do reality television
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: because that's like a whole that's just a whole other.
• 15:18
  Speaker 5: All Right, we got to move on.
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: But I will say the best show I've watched in
• 15:21
  Speaker 4: the last year is The Pit, and I think the
• 15:22
  Speaker 4: second season comes out in like January. That show is incredible.
• 15:25
  Speaker 4: I think it's on HBO two. All right, Action or Distraction.
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: Let's do it this distract.
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: I want it on the Action.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: The number one a grade in the Luck rankings per
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: Nick Giffin. The Las Vegas Raiders plus seven and a
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: half hosting the Denver Broncos all luck sides from Week
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: thirteen to the Super Bowl sixty eight percent cover rate
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: Action or Distraction Stucky on betting the stinky Las Vegas
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: Raiders action.
• 15:56
  Speaker 4: I did it already. It's off. It's terrible. I'm not
• 15:59
  Speaker 4: looking forward to it. I'm dreading it. That offensive line,
• 16:02
  Speaker 4: Gino Smith, it's bad, but I make it under a touchdown.
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: It is a luck side. I mean the Broncos what
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: They've played six games away from home this year and
• 16:15
  Speaker 4: they have yet to win a game by more than four.
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: And you're talking the games. You know, they played the
• 16:19
  Speaker 4: Jets when the Jets had negative ten passingers. These two
• 16:21
  Speaker 4: teams played recently in Denver. The final score was ten
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: to seven. The Raiders were in a short week, We're
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: coming off an overtime game. And their defense on the
• 16:30
  Speaker 4: field for eighty five plays. Well, now it's a second
• 16:32
  Speaker 4: straight road game for the Broncos. Their defense on the
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: field for a ninety five one hundred plays including penalties,
• 16:38
  Speaker 4: their pressure rate is kind of cratered of late. I
• 16:41
  Speaker 4: get it. The offensive line for the Raider as much
• 16:42
  Speaker 4: as ruined this game, but it's still boonicks. He still inaccurate.
• 16:47
  Speaker 4: I got to take the points here.
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: I have a question.
• 16:51
  Speaker 5: It's ugly, but I'm doing it.
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: Would we feel better about the Raiders if it was
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: aid and O'Connell because I'm getting to the point where
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: I think that I would I wouldn't ate it.
• 17:02
  Speaker 4: I mean, I don't think the offense is going to
• 17:04
  Speaker 4: do much regardless, Like you just got to throw the
• 17:06
  Speaker 4: hours a couple of times, throw at the Genti out
• 17:07
  Speaker 4: of the backfield. Hope Tucker breaks one. But it just
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: got to be a low scoring game. The Raiders defense
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: can be fight steven and the Broncos offense just can
• 17:18
  Speaker 4: beat itself. Raiders are going to play a lot of
• 17:20
  Speaker 4: his own prevent exposive plays. Knicks can go through long
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: stretches where he's just completely inaccurate. The Broncos running game
• 17:26
  Speaker 4: hasn't been that great, and over the last four weeks,
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: the Broncos pressure rate is bottom five in the NFL.
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: I mean, last week they got a fifteen percent pressure
• 17:32
  Speaker 4: rate against the Commanders. I get Tunsels good, but Connordley's
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: been really struggling and he gets allowed no pressures, so
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: that their defense could be a little tired out here
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: as well.
• 17:42
  Speaker 5: The home divisional dog.
• 17:43
  Speaker 4: Historically fifty seven percent against the spread catching over a touchdown.
• 17:48
  Speaker 4: I'm taking it. It's ugly. It's awful, I know, I
• 17:50
  Speaker 4: get it and maybe look Gino went under center some more.
• 17:53
  Speaker 4: They made some they're playing a lot of rookies. They've
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: had a lot of rookies. Last week they played you
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: Greedy Vance, Darien Porter some more. They started a rookie
• 18:00
  Speaker 4: at right guard and then rotated in with Antoni Maffi.
• 18:05
  Speaker 4: So like they're trying to get a look at some
• 18:07
  Speaker 4: other guys with Dad some variants, but maybe you get
• 18:09
  Speaker 4: some more, some additional wrinkles this year. The second week
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: of the new play caller. I'm not a huge fan
• 18:14
  Speaker 4: of Gregolso, but it can't be worse than what Chip Kelly.
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: I don't know what Chip Kelly was doing. Eject.
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't hate to look.
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: It's more so just the Broncos look like they're doing
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: for a loss. It's divisional, maybe an ugly loss for
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: the Broncos kind of. I mean, obviously the Rams and
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: the Panthers weren't a divisional matchup last week, and the
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: Panthers are.
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: Way better than what's going on in Vegas.
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: But it feels like maybe that's the kind of ugly
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: loss that we'll get here. I just I can't put
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: money on the Raiders as much as I think it's
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: like the sharp side.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: Well they covered the last time these two teams played.
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: Remember the Raiders held this Broncos team to just ten
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: points and that was in Denver. I think a sprinkle
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: on the money line not a bad idea either. At
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: plus three twenty, the Broncos bottom three cover rate in
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: the NFL when they're listed as a favorite. Justin Herbert
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: preparing to give it a go on Monday Night Football. However,
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: Trey Lance has been getting first team reps and will
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: likely get worked in in goal line situations even if
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: Herbert plays so Kendra action or distraction on Trey Lance
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: for an any time touchdown. This is not listed yet.
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: My guess is that it when it does pop on DraftKings,
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: it's going to be between the four to one to
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: plus five hundred range.
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: I like the look.
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: I was actually talking to David, our producer before we
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: got on the air, trying to convince myself to get
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: in on the Eagles, and the Trey Lance angle is
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: the reason that I did.
• 19:41
  Speaker 6: So.
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: I love the look here. I obviously he's been getting
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: the reps. I think it would be dumb for them
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: to play Herbert this week. I think that you're obviously
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: going to get in. But the whole point of the
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: defense here, especially in goal line opportunities or you know,
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: any kind of tush push scenario, you're gonna have to
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: have Trey Lance out there. He looked good in the preseason.
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: I love the look of the It's not something that
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: crossed my mind. Love the creativity. I think it's worth,
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: you know, a sprinkle of whatever you find valuable.
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: Hopefully this doesn't become a popular idea, because then that'll
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: end up making this unbettable. This has to be you
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: have to get this at long odds in order to
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: bet it. If you're betting a backup quarterback to score
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: a touchdown, you better get four to one would be
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: the basement for me. And we're talking quarter unit at
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: the most sucky. Any any feel for that.
• 20:30
  Speaker 4: None zero, won't waste your time coming.
• 20:33
  Speaker 5: I got any more info in this game. I mean,
• 20:35
  Speaker 5: that's that's the Monday night game.
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: It's only Thursday, so trying to get more intel on
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: Herbert and it's it's gonna be interesting to see, like
• 20:46
  Speaker 4: you know, he pretty much like just going pure shotgun.
• 20:50
  Speaker 4: I don't think it's going to have that much of
• 20:53
  Speaker 4: an impact. On their offense. I mean, the biggest thing
• 20:56
  Speaker 4: I'm worried about with the Chargers is just their offensive
• 20:59
  Speaker 4: line against the Eagles front. That's like, how how much
• 21:05
  Speaker 4: can the Eagles ruin the game for the Chargers because
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: they just they really can't block anybody, and this Eagles
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: defense on a good day is as good as anybody.
• 21:14
  Speaker 4: So that's that's my biggest concern. But you know, everything
• 21:19
  Speaker 4: has the right price, so it depends on what. Anytime
• 21:22
  Speaker 4: touchdown aren't my specialty. I don't price them. I'll have
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: to see. I could want to see. I would like
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: to know with like Kerner and Raven and give him
• 21:30
  Speaker 4: price that at there are any quick plug on Dan
• 21:34
  Speaker 4: danningtime touchdown show check that out.
• 21:36
  Speaker 5: They might have something there, but not my specialty.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: It is a must, and I'm thinking that that's one
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: that they might end up bringing up. Not our specialty either,
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: but could be one worth a look if you get
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: it at a long number. Ben Roethlisberger suggested that Mike
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: Tomlin should leave the Pittsburgh Steelers to take the Penn
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: State job. Action or distraction Stucky on that being a
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: good idea.
• 21:59
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, and the Penn State needs someone it's
• 22:01
  Speaker 4: probably a good idea of Penn State. I mean, they
• 22:05
  Speaker 4: just need someone at this point. I mean there were
• 22:07
  Speaker 4: works of recruiting classes like bottom of the Bow. Right now,
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: I don't know if tom On has the chops for
• 22:12
  Speaker 4: college and like the recruiting and all that.
• 22:14
  Speaker 5: But by the way.
• 22:17
  Speaker 4: I think Herbert already takes like eighty percent of snaps
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: on the shot and I'm trying to just think of
• 22:20
  Speaker 4: the number. But sorry, that was on my mind. I
• 22:24
  Speaker 4: think it's a good idea for the Steelers. Like I
• 22:26
  Speaker 4: think Tomin has been a good coach. He's been great.
• 22:29
  Speaker 4: I mean, like the guy hasn't had never had a
• 22:31
  Speaker 4: losing record. He's in one of the best motivators for
• 22:35
  Speaker 4: like spots, you know, the raw ra and this year
• 22:38
  Speaker 4: it's the team doesn't have the same caliber of defense.
• 22:41
  Speaker 4: But the Steelers, if I was a Steelers fan, they
• 22:45
  Speaker 4: just need a reset. And sometimes the voice gets old, right,
• 22:50
  Speaker 4: you just need a new voice in the room. You
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: need a new direction. And the Steelers have been stuck
• 22:58
  Speaker 4: in purgatory for going on ten years. I mean, yeah,
• 23:03
  Speaker 4: they go nine and eight, they haven't won a playoff
• 23:05
  Speaker 4: game in forever, and they because they're stuck limbo. They
• 23:12
  Speaker 4: can't get a quarterback, right, so like they're you're bringing
• 23:17
  Speaker 4: in these rentals post Big Ben, and you know, the
• 23:22
  Speaker 4: end of the Big Big Ben was ugly and you
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: can't actually reset everything, and then you end up like
• 23:28
  Speaker 4: paying Watt a bunch of money, and then you're bringing
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: in Rogers. You're talking about bringing Rogers back next to
• 23:33
  Speaker 4: they was just had his forty second birthday cake. The
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: Steelers need and they should have done this like two
• 23:40
  Speaker 4: years ago. You can't. That's easy to say it would
• 23:44
  Speaker 4: have been ideal if they did this two years ago. Right,
• 23:46
  Speaker 4: You have all these elite quarterbacks in the AFC, so
• 23:50
  Speaker 4: like a couple of years ago was the time to
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: blow it up, have a really bad season, and then
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: try to get your quarterback. Obviously didn't work out with
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: Kenny Pickett, but that's what they need. They need a
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: full restart. Like this team isn't going to win the
• 24:05
  Speaker 4: super Bowl. They're not close to winning the Super Bowl.
• 24:08
  Speaker 4: And until they find their franchise quarterback, Until any team
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: finds their franchise quarterback, you're not winning the super.
• 24:14
  Speaker 5: Bowl in the NFL. I mean maybe this year in
• 24:16
  Speaker 5: the AFC, you can get there. Because who knows who's
• 24:17
  Speaker 5: even going to be in there.
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: But yeah, I think it would be good for the
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: Steelers to just do something different.
• 24:24
  Speaker 7: Guys that played for me, they can tell you. One
• 24:26
  Speaker 7: of my sayings I got a lot of saying is
• 24:28
  Speaker 7: is don't seek comfort. I realized if you can have
• 24:31
  Speaker 7: special outcomes that you got to be comfortable being uncomfortable.
• 24:35
  Speaker 7: Appreciate my resume the seeking comfort.
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: I don't disagree with you, like I think Tomlin needs
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: a change of scenery, and so do they. I think
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: that if this was a market like a Philly, like
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: a Boston, like a Dallas or something like that, you
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: can't middle in those markets for as long as he has.
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: He's a great coach.
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: Don't get me wrong, some of the you know, win
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: totals that he's gotten out of, like completely asked teams
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: like you said the quarterback point impressive, But you can't
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: just middle.
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: The way that he has for so long in other markets.
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: But the thing is is that I don't know if
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: you actually watched his response to this question.
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: He's a no bullshit guy. Like he's short, but he's
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: a no bullshit guy.
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: And the way that he answered this question, there's no
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: way that this is even an option for him, because
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: if it is, like he sounded like he was absolutely
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: insulted that anyone would even consider that, let alone ask him.
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: I get that there's a lot of you know, smoke
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: and mirrors with you know, the media and everything in
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: professional sports, but it sounded like he was insulted that
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: he was even being asked this question.
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: I don't know if you can be.
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: Unless he's just the best bullshitter of all bullshitters, which
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: could be true. I could be reading it wrong, but like,
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: I don't think that you can act insulted when being
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: asked a question and then.
• 25:46
  Speaker 3: Turn around and do something like that. That's just my
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: takeaway from it.
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you actually saw the clip, but
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: that's he like, actually genuinely was like disgusted.
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: I think he identifies himself very heavily to being the
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: Steelers head coach, and I think it would be difficult
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: for him to break away from that from a mental perspective,
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: if he can't bullshit. By the way, not going to
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: work in college because that is a talk about me.
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: You needed to be a bullshitter.
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: Yes, Heavy sport still to come. Two kings and a
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: Queen get nominated in our weekly parlay. But first, a
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: word about Draft Kings from the first Lady.
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: The Favorites podcast is sponsored by DraftKings and in partnership
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: with DraftKings, our listeners can get a great offer right now.
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: New customers can bet five dollars and get two hundred
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• 26:55
  Speaker 3: The crown is yours.
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: Kendra, talk to us, what prop has you gonna pickle? Fourteen?
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: Okay, we're in a pickle. Now, I'm really in a
• 27:04
  Speaker 4: pickle now, all right, look.
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: We're gonna pickle again?
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: Hey wow, all right, So I think that I have
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: to go with the Shadoor Sanders and cam Ward Beef.
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: We have an absolute mid off between these two rookies
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: on shitty teams this week, who I.
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: Don't think really like each other.
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: I know that cam war got asked a question in
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: press this week if this beef was real, and he
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: kind of just was like, nuts, whatever, we don't talk
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: during the season. Frankly, he kind of said, Loki, he
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: didn't have time for it, Which makes me think that
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: this beef is true, Like if the media is bringing
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: it up, even if it's just that you guys were
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: you know, rookies in the same class whatever at the
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: same position.
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: I don't think that they like each other.
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: So I want to talk about who is more likely
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: to cover their passing prop cam Ward one eighty plus
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: is minus one oh nine and shouldur to go over.
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: One sixty is minus one oh eight. Who do you
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: think is more likely to get after their total?
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: You guys, I'll go with the lower number. Against the
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: Poorror defense, I would go shdoor Sanders personally, I.
• 28:07
  Speaker 4: Mean, the Browns are going to try to run it
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: more like the Titans. Rundy is pretty good, and now
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: that they're healthy in their defensive line, the Browns rundy
• 28:15
  Speaker 4: is really good. The Titans are dogs, So I guess
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: I'll go with them, but that's that's a rough one.
• 28:26
  Speaker 4: I mean this this, I'm still laughing at this total.
• 28:29
  Speaker 4: It is ticked off a bit. It's going it's up
• 28:31
  Speaker 4: to about thirty four thirty four and a half with
• 28:35
  Speaker 4: there's no real win, so it's unusual to see totals
• 28:38
  Speaker 4: this low. But I guess I'll go with the Titans,
• 28:41
  Speaker 4: but no strong conviction.
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: All right, my pick, Well, then we didn't really help
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: because you're still in a pickle. Yeah, how about just
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: taking there both of their unders. Let's just fade both
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: of them. Let's all of it, heavn.
• 28:58
  Speaker 6: I guess the Titans.
• 29:00
  Speaker 5: Just go with the Titans.
• 29:01
  Speaker 6: I mean, I agree with Stuck though that that game
• 29:03
  Speaker 6: is a complete and utter stay away. I mean, there's
• 29:06
  Speaker 6: about ten mile an hour wins. It's gonna be like
• 29:08
  Speaker 6: twenty eight degrees. It's gonna be just a shitty, shitty game.
• 29:11
  Speaker 6: I kind of like Cleveland and real shitty shitty games
• 29:14
  Speaker 6: because I feel like they're just gonna take the rock
• 29:16
  Speaker 6: out of Shador's hands, which is what I would like.
• 29:19
  Speaker 5: But we'll see.
• 29:21
  Speaker 4: Offensive line injury is worth noting too. A couple with
• 29:24
  Speaker 4: Teller and Conklin by the way, the main reason to
• 29:28
  Speaker 4: watch Browns games is Miles Garrett, who is probably gonna
• 29:34
  Speaker 4: break the record, and I mean.
• 29:39
  Speaker 5: He might have.
• 29:39
  Speaker 4: He could go off for three or four sacks in
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: any game. So I'm roody for him to get the record.
• 29:44
  Speaker 4: And he deserves it. He deserves some joy.
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: He does. Actually, he just he could chose that fay
• 29:52
  Speaker 3: for himself. Does he He could have left?
• 29:55
  Speaker 5: He's yeah, but he's he's stayed.
• 29:56
  Speaker 4: I mean, I just hate but he I think he's
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: four sacks, right, isn't he four sacks away?
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: Four or five?
• 30:03
  Speaker 4: I think so he's getting that and board if he
• 30:09
  Speaker 4: gets it this week.
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: It's all right. It is time for the reason you
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: all came here today, the Two Kings and a Queen Parlay.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: We nominate two plays a piece, see if we can
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: find some general consensus and land on our team built
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: parlay presented by Draft Games. Tendra get Us started, what
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: are we looking at?
• 30:36
  Speaker 7: All?
• 30:36
  Speaker 4: Right?
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: So I gave out my Plant the Flag game on
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: Tuesday as Cincy. I believe it was six at the time.
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: It's now five and a half. So I'm going to
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: offer that on the table. But if we want to
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: leave our Plant the Flag games out of it. I'm
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: going to give you guys, Houston with the three and
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: a half or the Steelers with the six.
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: Uh well, I'm on the Ravens minus points.
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: To not look like he liked either of those.
• 30:58
  Speaker 6: I'm thinking, this is my thinking this.
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: I think he's gonna end up having to break a tie.
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: I actually stuck. He had said that he kind of
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: agrees with me on the Ravens side. I already bet
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: the Ravens was my first bet of the week. No
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: way I can. I can rubber stamp the Steelers here,
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: so it would be the Texans for me. I'm a
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: little bit stuck in the middle of that game itself,
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: as me in a pickle. The trends say, chiefs, chiefs, chiefs,
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: I think we should keep since the out, I think
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: we should. I think we should leave the plant the
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: flag games to the side.
• 31:29
  Speaker 5: I'm parking the picks in there.
• 31:32
  Speaker 4: The Steelers, I mean just that. The state of their offense.
• 31:34
  Speaker 4: I mean, over the past four weeks, Aaron Roder has
• 31:35
  Speaker 4: been the worst quarterback in the NFL. I mean, you
• 31:37
  Speaker 4: look at just at EPA. You look at EPA plus
• 31:41
  Speaker 4: complete President Joe expectation. He's been worse than everyone. They
• 31:45
  Speaker 4: haven't completed a pass more than twenty yards downfield in
• 31:47
  Speaker 4: a month. And now he has this injury and they
• 31:50
  Speaker 4: have to go predominantly pistol and now and now their
• 31:53
  Speaker 4: defense is bad and there's key injuries. And I mean
• 31:56
  Speaker 4: the Bills around twenty seven of the same play twenty
• 31:58
  Speaker 4: seven is the same rushing playoff week and have worked
• 32:00
  Speaker 4: every time and they made no adjustments. Now, having said that,
• 32:04
  Speaker 4: I am conditioned to just expect every Ravens Steelers is
• 32:11
  Speaker 4: going to be close, and this to be twenty to seventeen.
• 32:15
  Speaker 4: It it doesn't matter who's playing, how bad one of
• 32:18
  Speaker 4: the teams are. Generally speaking, I think Harball and Tomlin
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: have played each other well since two thousand and eight
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: in the regular season, So that's thirty four times. I
• 32:29
  Speaker 4: think twenty six of them have been decided by one
• 32:31
  Speaker 4: possession whenever, and one of them is an underdog of
• 32:35
  Speaker 4: three or more points. This is stunning. They are nineteen
• 32:39
  Speaker 4: three and three against the spread eighty six point four percent.
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: So and the Ravens offense right now is not right
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: because Lamar is not healthy. Now there's upside with the
• 32:51
  Speaker 4: Ravens that you don't I don't think you have with
• 32:53
  Speaker 4: the Steelers, Like, eventually Lamar is gonna get healthier and
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: it's going to look better and it should be better
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: than last week. You had that fumble with the goal
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: on and but Lamar hasn't been accurate. I mean some
• 33:03
  Speaker 4: of the numbers for Jackson are very, very worrying. I
• 33:09
  Speaker 4: mean you look at his on target rate since he
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: came back from his injury, it's second worst in the NFL.
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: His catchup ball rate the worst it's ever been in
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: his career, third worst in the NFL. So it's do
• 33:23
  Speaker 4: I don't really trust the Ravens offense right now. I
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: definitely don't trust the Steelers offense, so I think we
• 33:28
  Speaker 4: can go.
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: It's more so like this is this is the this
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: is the crazy spot that everybody is like, the Steelers
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: suck Aaron Rodgers is bad, and then they win a
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: game like this that they're not supposed to. That's just
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: indivision grimy, you know, doubting Tomlin game.
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: And that's kind of that's where I'm at.
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: It's just the number feels too big for an indivision
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: like the Steelers Tomlin, like just crazy, what the hell
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: type of game it's just as I feel.
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: Like the defense get they can win a gramy game.
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: Can you sell me on the Texans though, because I
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: kind of to get there on them.
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean at three and LA he's Houston's offensive
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: line and it's three and a half and not three
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: offensive line.
• 34:09
  Speaker 4: The Chiefs offensive line injuries are huge, and yeah that
• 34:14
  Speaker 4: the Texans offenses look more functional. Woody Marks who has
• 34:18
  Speaker 4: banged up. To keep an eye on him. He provides
• 34:20
  Speaker 4: more juice in the backfield. Out of the backfield. Their
• 34:22
  Speaker 4: offensive line has also come together. Stroud looked good last week.
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, he did, and I didn't expect him to.
• 34:27
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 34:28
  Speaker 4: Having Higgins like when Collins was out, developing some of
• 34:31
  Speaker 4: the other younger receivers has really helped their offense. So
• 34:35
  Speaker 4: their offense is now a much more serious operation. But
• 34:40
  Speaker 4: these are the two big Those are the two best
• 34:42
  Speaker 4: under teams, by the way, in the NFL over the
• 34:44
  Speaker 4: past three years. I think that the Texans are number
• 34:46
  Speaker 4: one at thirty one and fifteen. The Chiefs are number
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: two thirty and sixteen. The Chiefs unders at home over
• 34:53
  Speaker 4: the past three seasons seventeen and six. So I think
• 34:56
  Speaker 4: this will be a lower scoring game. Points at a premium,
• 34:59
  Speaker 4: and I think that the Texans defensive line can really
• 35:03
  Speaker 4: dominate this game, cause a lot of negative plays kill
• 35:05
  Speaker 4: some drives, so it feels like a Peel goal lower
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: scoring game. So yeah, I'm okay with taking the three
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: and a half at DK with the Texans.
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: I will say, Evan has a great trend on this,
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: so maybe I'll speak for him here and we'll get
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: his opinion on the game. But back to back road
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: games for the Texans. When teams go into Arrowhead after
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: a road game and your name isn't Josh Allen or
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: Joe Burrow, you're zero and twenty straight up, I know
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: we're looking for to cover the three and a half here,
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: So that doesn't exclude the play here. It's just that
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: is an overwhelming number of going on the road into
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: and then into Arrowhead to take on the Chiefs, and
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: this is a desperate Chiefs team. That's my issue here.
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: I totally assume.
• 35:51
  Speaker 5: Chiefs team for a week though, I mean, like.
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: This is if they lose.
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: If they lose, we're done and their defense is better.
• 36:03
  Speaker 5: YEA, that's a.
• 36:03
  Speaker 4: Desperate the Chiefs. The Chiefs probably went by three, So
• 36:10
  Speaker 4: I'm finally.
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: The three and a half is crucial, Evan take it home.
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: Okay, here's trivia question. Who was the least profitable starting
• 36:19
  Speaker 4: quarterback in the NFL since November of last year?
• 36:22
  Speaker 5: Mahomes, Mahomes. Here's a better one.
• 36:25
  Speaker 6: If the game goes under this week, Mahomes will be
• 36:28
  Speaker 6: the most profitable starting quarterbacks in two thousand and five
• 36:31
  Speaker 6: to the under at home any quarterback in that span
• 36:34
  Speaker 6: seventeen second.
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: Well, he slugged me on the road with the Cowboys,
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: so with their totals, full them out?
• 36:42
  Speaker 4: No, all right, so we're going Texans plus three and
• 36:44
  Speaker 4: a half. I'll throw out I would have. I mean,
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: I would have thrown out the Falcons, but that's down
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: to seven and we'll keep the flag games out.
• 36:51
  Speaker 5: Talked about that on the previous episode.
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: I'm so close to getting in on the Falcons. Can
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: you sell me on the Falcons?
• 36:57
  Speaker 4: You didn't you were here for the last episode.
• 37:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I know, I just obviously.
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: Didn't listen to a You gotta go back and listen
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: to use our numbers up.
• 37:06
  Speaker 5: You got to go listen to that episode.
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: I actually I do listen to our shows back well, so.
• 37:12
  Speaker 4: You've listened to me twice to talk about the Falcons
• 37:14
  Speaker 4: and you still don't know, so obviously just.
• 37:18
  Speaker 5: But I mean Falcons.
• 37:19
  Speaker 4: Look, they're one and four of their past five games
• 37:21
  Speaker 4: plus one point differential. They trailed with one second ago
• 37:23
  Speaker 4: in just one of the games. Is that knowing by
• 37:25
  Speaker 4: one point they've been in every game, They've been extremely unlucky.
• 37:29
  Speaker 4: Their defense and get pressure. Donald is very sensitive to pressure.
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: This is similar to the crap the last two weeks too,
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: as far as like Seattle has looked this season, and
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: they're my darling.
• 37:38
  Speaker 4: So I mean since week ten, Donald twenty fifth and
• 37:42
  Speaker 4: EPA plus complete percentage of expectation twenty six adjusted EPA
• 37:46
  Speaker 4: per play before we ten here is number one, number
• 37:50
  Speaker 4: one in both. I think they miss Tory Horton. Shed's
• 37:54
  Speaker 4: given them nothing. The Falcons can get pressure, the Falcons
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: will blitz. It's a similar lot of similar are defensive
• 38:03
  Speaker 4: schematics to the Rams and the Vikings, who have given
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: Darnold a lot of issues. So Cousins is playing better
• 38:11
  Speaker 4: and hopefully you get Drake London here, but even if not,
• 38:14
  Speaker 4: I think they can keep this close. Falcons do a
• 38:15
  Speaker 4: good job of eliminating explosive pass plays. Their Rundy's better
• 38:18
  Speaker 4: with Diablo back, it's still bad. But the Seahawks are
• 38:22
  Speaker 4: not a great rushing team. I mean, you're like twenty five, right.
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: You know what, Ducky, I'm gonna go in with you.
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: You've you've gotten me there.
• 38:29
  Speaker 4: Yeah, and schedule so long.
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: Hawks.
• 38:31
  Speaker 4: I'm a believer, But they're one in three verse teams
• 38:33
  Speaker 4: currently in the playoffs, eight to zero against teams that
• 38:36
  Speaker 4: are not. I think this is probably the peak of
• 38:38
  Speaker 4: the market. They're coming off of games against the Titans
• 38:42
  Speaker 4: and Max Brosmer, and by the way, that game was
• 38:44
  Speaker 4: three to nothing, Brosmer about to take the lead seven
• 38:47
  Speaker 4: to three at the end of the first half. Road
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: teams off of a home shut out. By the way,
• 38:51
  Speaker 4: seventeen thirty five and one against the spread over the
• 38:54
  Speaker 4: past twenty years thirty two point seven percent. So that's
• 38:57
  Speaker 4: my case on the Falcons. But I'll throw out the
• 38:59
  Speaker 4: raid who already talked about to bow Nick's fade as
• 39:05
  Speaker 4: a favorite of more than a touchdown for what it's
• 39:09
  Speaker 4: worth home divisional dogs and more than a touchdown with
• 39:12
  Speaker 4: a total below forty two, so lower scoring game points
• 39:15
  Speaker 4: at a premium twenty one and nine against the Sprinds
• 39:19
  Speaker 4: in two thousand and three, covering by over a touchdown
• 39:21
  Speaker 4: per game seventy percent against the spread. Broncos off that
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: overtime game, you know, the defense could be a little
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: bit fatigued here, so I throw out the Raiders plus
• 39:30
  Speaker 4: seven and a half and well, this is disgusting, but
• 39:34
  Speaker 4: we'll go buy low Vikings money line. JJ McCarthy Kenny
• 39:41
  Speaker 4: complete a pass. I don't know, but it can't be
• 39:44
  Speaker 4: worse than Brosmer. I was saying it can't be worse
• 39:46
  Speaker 4: than mcarthy with Brosner. But here we are back full circle.
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: You don't think that like you don't think the Commanders
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: have been like right in it, kind of chomping at
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: the bit do for a win kind of situation the Vikings.
• 39:58
  Speaker 4: Here's the thing, the Vikings great home field advantage that
• 40:01
  Speaker 4: the Commanders off that overtime get. This is their first
• 40:03
  Speaker 4: road me in forty one days. By the way, as well,
• 40:05
  Speaker 4: their defense is still really bad. I know dan quinn
• 40:08
  Speaker 4: has fixed some things simplified at morzone, but it's still
• 40:11
  Speaker 4: a really bad defense. The Vikings defense will be the
• 40:13
  Speaker 4: best unit on the field. I think if if Daniels plays,
• 40:17
  Speaker 4: that's a bad thing for Washington. It could be some rust.
• 40:19
  Speaker 4: He struggles against the Blitz. He hasn't been in rhythm
• 40:21
  Speaker 4: all year. I mean Daniels and I haven't talked about
• 40:25
  Speaker 4: this in his primer. Daniels and Marriott have the same
• 40:27
  Speaker 4: in Mariotta have the same amount of snaps this year.
• 40:30
  Speaker 4: Maritia's numbers are better, so Mariyota and the by low Vikings.
• 40:37
  Speaker 5: This is a spot.
• 40:38
  Speaker 4: I usually like team off of a shutout. Historically as
• 40:42
  Speaker 4: a dog or a favorite of less than three fifty six,
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: thirty six and three against the spreads in twenty and three,
• 40:47
  Speaker 4: sixty one percent teams after scoring three or less ninety
• 40:51
  Speaker 4: sixty three and five against the spread close to sixty
• 40:53
  Speaker 4: percent over the past ten years. And here's who the Vikings.
• 40:58
  Speaker 4: I think it's just this is the bottom, the very
• 41:00
  Speaker 4: bottom of the market.
• 41:01
  Speaker 5: On the Vikings. They were three and.
• 41:03
  Speaker 4: Two before their bye week. Since then they went Eagles, who.
• 41:07
  Speaker 5: They should have be.
• 41:07
  Speaker 4: They outplayed them at the Chargers, at the Lions, they
• 41:11
  Speaker 4: won with McCarthy Ravens, Bears, at Packers, at Seahawks. Those
• 41:17
  Speaker 4: are all playoff teams. Their schedule has been brutal. This
• 41:21
  Speaker 4: will be a nice break for them, So Vikings money
• 41:24
  Speaker 4: line or Raiders. So either giving you Jj McCarthy or
• 41:27
  Speaker 4: Gino Smith Raiders plus seven and a half.
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: Wow, first of all, adorable guys that you're holding hands with,
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins. I could picture you guys skipping through a
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: meadow that you guys as a trio. I'm gonna lay
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: off of that one. I'm gonna vote the Raiders. I
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: don't think the power ratings are really catching. Just how
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: bad the quarterback play has been from Minnesota. I hear
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: you definite by Low, but I'm gonna go. I love
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: the idea of fading bo Nicks as a favorite's and
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: he's getting They're catching eighty percent of the tickets. Hello, people,
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: the Broncos don't cover in these situations.
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: Evan, Evan, but what.
• 42:08
  Speaker 5: Are you voting? Who are voting for?
• 42:09
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 42:10
  Speaker 6: What are you doing?
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: I want to keep the Falcons?
• 42:14
  Speaker 4: But just calls on me without ever even making a pick.
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: I want to keep them. I want to keep the Falcons.
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: Kendrick did not have enough espresso today. Espresso before the show.
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: Umm, probably by Kings.
• 42:31
  Speaker 5: All right, seven's got to break it, Jesus.
• 42:33
  Speaker 6: I mean, I just can't take the bottom of a
• 42:34
  Speaker 6: market when I'm laying two points because I agree with Stuck,
• 42:38
  Speaker 6: but I think, like, I don't know, I guess I'll
• 42:41
  Speaker 6: take the Raiders. But in this circumstance, I feel like
• 42:43
  Speaker 6: we got the best Raiders performance against the Broncos last time.
• 42:48
  Speaker 6: They've his own next, like, I see this game being
• 42:51
  Speaker 6: like twenty one to seven, twenty one to ten, and
• 42:54
  Speaker 6: the Broncos will cover and will continue to be like,
• 42:56
  Speaker 6: what the hell.
• 42:57
  Speaker 5: Is wrong with this team? But Raiders in Vegas, let's go.
• 43:01
  Speaker 5: They'll lose by seven, let's do it, all right?
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: We got two in there, seen ten. We're definitely in
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: for that. Texans plus three and a half, Raiders.
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: I need a meat.
• 43:13
  Speaker 5: This one's ugly.
• 43:13
  Speaker 4: But the last time I hated ours and it looked
• 43:16
  Speaker 4: really ugly, we hit.
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: Oh, well, then let's make this really gross. I got
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: the Jags plus one and a half. That's not gross.
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: They've won three games in a row. Or the Jets
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: plus three. We flip the calendar to December. We're headed
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: up north. It means one thing. It's fade Tua season.
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: Tua is six and oh straight up against the Jets
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: in his career. However, he's oh and seven in games
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: where the weather is between forty and forty six degrees,
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: this one's clocking in at forty one. Tyrod Taylor's a
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: cover machine seven to oh to one against the spread
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: as a starter since twenty twenty two, give me the
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: New York Jets plus three. We already talked about the Jags.
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is just solve. This is what they
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: do against the team that's trending in the wrong direction.
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: The Jags beat the Colts in Jacksonville. It's as tried
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: and true as anything else that's rolling in the NFL.
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: Right now, Kendra, where's your vote? If we really want
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: to make this parlay disgusting, it's got to be the Jets.
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: No. Before we got on the show, I told you
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: that I was close to getting in on the Jets,
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: and the only reason that I could not was because
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: of their injury report. And that's the reason I can't
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: really officially, finally myself get to it. But I was close.
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: I don't want anything to do with the Jags. I
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: like the Jets more in both scenarios anyway. Like I said,
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: it feels like there's some weird stuff in the air
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: which points Jets and Jags losing Jets Jake Ets.
• 44:49
  Speaker 4: I haven't played either. I lean both Jets are due
• 44:53
  Speaker 4: for an interception. They still have one, so don't you
• 44:57
  Speaker 4: fear two in the cold. That's like so then that
• 45:00
  Speaker 4: could be the difference here. Dolphin's rund he's been good.
• 45:04
  Speaker 4: Can can tailor Adie Mitchell? Can you have a big game?
• 45:07
  Speaker 4: Can they take advantage of the Dolphins secondary? I don't know,
• 45:09
  Speaker 4: but it should be a low, low scoring game like three.
• 45:13
  Speaker 4: I think is at a premium. Jets special teams, by
• 45:15
  Speaker 4: the way, have been historically good, like nick folks. Probably
• 45:18
  Speaker 4: all it should be an all prop kicker they had.
• 45:21
  Speaker 4: They beat the Browns on two returns. They had a
• 45:23
  Speaker 4: their kick kick game they had. They won the game
• 45:26
  Speaker 4: last week because the special teams. These teams played early
• 45:30
  Speaker 4: in the year. The Jets out game them by one
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: hundred yards, and they just had three turnovers and didn't
• 45:33
  Speaker 4: get a fourth down. So I leaned both haven't played it,
• 45:36
  Speaker 4: So I'm gonna flip a coin.
• 45:37
  Speaker 5: It's Jags. Evan has to break another tie.
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: Jags I'll go with as well.
• 45:44
  Speaker 6: I just don't trust anything in that Miami Jets game,
• 45:49
  Speaker 6: but I do think to a turn of the ball
• 45:51
  Speaker 6: over is probably something that it's going to show up,
• 45:54
  Speaker 6: so uh, if anything.
• 45:56
  Speaker 5: I would lean the Jets.
• 45:57
  Speaker 6: But there's just like like you mentioned the those receivers
• 46:00
  Speaker 6: stuck that would need to succeed for them to beat
• 46:03
  Speaker 6: the Dolphins, and it made me throw up in my
• 46:05
  Speaker 6: mouth a tiny bit.
• 46:07
  Speaker 4: So Jaguars to an interception thrown interception, I will be
• 46:11
  Speaker 4: betting that. Yeah, that feels right, all right.
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: That will be our way, will be our way of
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: still sticking that one in there.
• 46:18
  Speaker 4: Yea, Jags got us to the they were in our
• 46:21
  Speaker 4: parlay the last time. Both times. I really like.
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: This one.
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: And here's the thing.
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: This all weirdly points back to me saying the Texans
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: were going to win this division last week.
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: Because if the if we hit this, that that means
• 46:40
  Speaker 3: the Texans win.
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: And I think that the Jags will eventually crap the
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: bed and the Texans are gonna win out.
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: That's what's going to happen. I'm calling it.
• 46:47
  Speaker 5: By one Chiefs by three YEP.
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: Raiders plus seven and a half Texans plus three and
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: a half Jags plus one and a half two Kings
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: and a Queen parlay plus five eighty one over on DraftKings,
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: The Crown is yours. That'll do it for this week's
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: Thursday episode special. Thankstore producers Gifford Gold, David Payne, Statsound
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: Evan Abrams. The Favorites will return on Sunday Night, a
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: week fourteen recap. Catch it right here on the Action
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: Network YouTube page. Thanks for hanging out. We'll see you
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: next time here on the Favorite podcast presented by DraftKings,
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: We're Out.
• 47:34
  Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is
• 47:41
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