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5 REASONS Bitcoin Can Go Parabolic in 2026! | Beyond Bitcoin · Simply Bitcoin

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Bitcoin is down on the year and has now spent more consecutive
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days in extreme fear than an endpoint in history.
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Hey, everyone's waiting for the next crash, damn it.
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They're looking for a headline panic, a single moment where
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everything breaks. But that's not what's coming.
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What's coming is quieter, slower, more structural.
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In this video, I'm going to break down the five macro forces
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reshaping the global economy and why in my view, 2026 is going to
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be a very bullish year for Bitcoin.
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I'm oceans. This is beyond Bitcoin.
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Let's go. Extreme fear doesn't mean
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Bitcoin is broken historically. It means the market is early,
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price is reacting to uncertainty, capital is reacting
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to pressure, and narratives haven't caught up yet.
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That's the environment Bitcoin was designed for.
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So instead of staring at the price, which we all love doing,
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I want us to look at some global forces that are coming down the
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pipeline that may tip the scale. 5 forces to be exact #1
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fragmentation. We've been hearing about these
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Trump tariffs for the past year. Just listen to this recent clip
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from the Secretary of Treasury, Scott Besson.
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There's a lot going on. I would categorize 20, 25.
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We had some important victory, some important policy
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announcements, some important movement.
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But I as I've described it, 2025 was setting the table and I
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especially on the economy, I think the the feast in the
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banquets going to be in 2026. It seems like the tariffs have
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had an enormously positive impact.
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It's given you a lot of tools in the toolbox to work with.
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Why do you think so many people got it wrong?
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A lot of people, I'm sure, that you've known and worked with in
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your prior life as a hedge fund manager.
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What did they get wrong? What did they miss that you were
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able to see? Well, IA couple of things.
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I, I think people didn't have an open mind.
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They became the Trump tariffs, which immediately a large cohort
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of whether it was government officials, industry people, the
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general population, because President Trump wanted to do it.
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It must be bad. I I said the other day,
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President Trump cured cancer, but it caused dandruff.
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Then people would say, well, you know, President Trump has caused
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the dandruff epidemic. And look, that there's a lot of
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orthodoxy that hasn't worked. If we look back early 2000s,
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letting China into the global trading system, that they would
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become more like us. And there was a point.
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And I'm somewhat sympathetic to the people who believe that.
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But by 2013, when Xi Jinping came in and great writers like
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Elizabeth Economy, who had been of that view reversed and said
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he's a different kind of cat. It's no longer going to be a
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Chinese policies with capitalist tendencies.
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It's just going to go back to, you know, hard communism,
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Leninism and I, I just think that it was a failure of
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imagination. So again, I, I would, part of it
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was just anything the president does must be wrong.
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Part of it was a failure of imagination.
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And, you know, there, there's some very good studies coming
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out now that are showing why, why everyone has been wrong that
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the the measurement problems, they're on the increase in goods
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prices. There's a study from not a
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friend of the administration, the San Francisco Fed with 150
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years of data. I would refer everyone to that.
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This shows that tariffs do not 'cause inflation, that they're
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actually disinflationary. For decades, the global economy
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ran on one assumption free trade would keep everything efficient,
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cheap and stable. But with the advent of
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algorithms and AI, that assumption is gone.
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Trade is no longer about efficiency, it's about who is in
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control, who owns the supply chains, and who owns the money
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that they operate in. Trade policy is now a national
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security policy. This is what financial analyst
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Lynn Alton has been warning us about for years.
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Take a look. As the pandemic showed the world
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just how fragile supply chains and the Just in Time inventory
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model is, it seems like the deglobalization theme is now
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spreading around the world. So will this be an inflationary
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force as countries need to rebuild domestic manufacturing
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and very likely face higher labor costs as well?
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That's my expectation at least around the margins.
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And so, of course, deglobalization does not mean we
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just stop globalizing, right? But we don't just end all
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globalization, but it means we can stop increasing
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globalization, maybe pull some of it back.
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So one simple way to measure it is global trade as a percentage
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of global GDP. And so, you know, that was
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rising throughout the 1800s. Then of course, between World
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War One and World War 2, that was on this lengthy contraction
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period. It never went to zero.
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But of course it it just, it started going down after the
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resolution of World War Two. It went up pretty significantly
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and then especially accelerated in, in the, you know, the 90s
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and, and thereafter, because you had the reopening of you had the
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opening of China and then you had the collapse of the Soviet
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Union, which brought a number of, of, you know, Eastern
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European and Central Asian countries to the broader
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markets. And so basically there was this
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big untapped pool of Labor. And so a lot of companies around
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the world did geographic arbitrage.
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They said, OK, well, we can pay these people $0.50 an hour and
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eventually increase it to a dollar an hour and dollar 50 an
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hour as they get more developed to, to to make things for us.
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And that even when you ship across the world ends up being
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cheaper than paying someone, you know, $15.00 an hour in the US.
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And so that was a very disinflationary force combined
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with, you know, modern electronics and software.
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The problem is that's not permanent, right?
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That that can only persist so long.
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Eventually those markets get quite developed.
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So right now China has become more developed.
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And also, of course, there's this kind of this brewing Cold
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War between the United States and China.
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They're more economic rivals at this point.
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And it hollows out the US industrial base so much.
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They start to get rising populism and, you know,
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political challenges back home and in other countries that did
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this, because not every, not every developed country
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outsourced their supply chain the way that the United States
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did. They still make stuff in Japan.
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They still make stuff in Germany, for example, you know,
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Italy has a has a current account surplus despite its
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other problems. They actually have a decent
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manufacturing base in, in, in the northern part of the
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country. And of course in the United
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States, we do make some things, but you know, as a whole, we've
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run this structural trade deficit that started to become a
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political problem. And so I do think we've kind of
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run this course. COVID kind of put the the final
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nail the coffin there when it became more of a national
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security issue about your ability to get ventilators,
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ability to get masks, basically ability to make things you.
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Need fragmented worlds don't need better money.
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They need neutral money, which I guess is better money.
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So I guess they need better money.
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But Bitcoin doesn't care about borders, It doesn't need trade
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agreements, and it doesn't get stuck inside anyone's political
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agenda. When trade breaks and systems
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harden, Bitcoin routes around it.
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You know, like Waze. I mean, I don't really use Waze.
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My wife uses Waze. Weighs more then I use Waze.
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I use Google Maps mostly. Did I just say Waze more?
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Yes I did moving on. So our first bullish take away
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for 2026? As trade fragments, Bitcoin
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becomes the settlement layer. Nobody has to trust they can
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verify. Excuse me #2 did anyone notice
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inflation isn't making headlines anymore?
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If you just look at Google Trends, the term inflation had a
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huge spike back in August 2022 as prices were increasing due to
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the lockdown printing. But since then, interest in the
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idea has died down. And that's the problem.
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Inflation is stickier than a bottle of Elmer's glue.
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Spoiler alert, there are some scenes from the new Stranger
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Things season in this episode. Just to let you know, inflation
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embeds itself in prices as no one expects to be paid less than
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before. This makes it politically
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untouchable. Central banks can't crush it
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either with higher interest rates without breaking some
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unforeseen system in the economy, and they can't fully
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ease without reigniting it. So they stall and they gaslight.
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Inflation doesn't have to spike to destroy purchasing power, it
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just has to linger. 'Cause I feel like even the
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history of money, which so many of us explore right as
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Bitcoiners, beads and shells to early coins which got coin
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clipped and they inflated. And it was the fall of empires
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which we never learned that perspective in school.
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And then the paper money, because obviously gold had its
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physical limitations, paper money built on top of it.
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It seems like the natural state of human society has been to
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inflate when you can. So, so it's good.
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So again, This is why and This is why I needed to go in stages
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for this. And then you can push back if
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something's not true because this is the thing that's that,
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that that's so hard to grasp. So, So what does that mean?
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What I just described, what it means is we have never lived in
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a global free market. You have no reference frame for
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what I'm talking about. No one on the planet has a
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reference frame for what I'm talking about you.
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The way your brain will will compare things is compare from
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what is existed before and then try to make an association with
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what the new thing is. And what's happening on on on
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Bitcoin is it's imposing a new set of rules and it's ruining
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people's reference frame. It's imposing that what I just
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described you actually if you're living in Bitcoin, you're living
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in the start of the first global free market the world has ever
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seen. Bitcoin doesn't protest the
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system, but it does react to it. Bitcoin is so powerful that it
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can operate within our current Fiat inflationary system and
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live outside of it simultaneously using inflation's
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own power against itself from within.
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Like that one scene and the recent Stranger Things, where
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Will takes control of Vecna for like a second and breaks his
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legs and tells Max like, Max run, run, Max run.
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And Vecna's like, get out of my head.
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Yeah, that's Bitcoin. The number 2 bullish take away
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for 2026 is that Bitcoin thrives in slow monetary decay.
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Not just crisis #3 AIA, productivity, boom, capital
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sink. Bitcoin absorbs the shock.
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You know, like pumps back in the 90s.
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AI is transformative. Like wheelies, but expensive.
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Like Yeezys. Oh, Yeezys aren't expensive
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anymore? Oh OK, got it.
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But aside from my hilarious footwear jokes, what most people
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miss is that AI isn't software, it's infrastructure.
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But here's what's bullish for the Bitcoin miners is the
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biggest AI spend in the world right now for for data centers,
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for AI is in Abilene, TX. Cargate basically is a $500
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billion spend Where what is this facility in Abilene, TX?
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They were Bitcoin miners. It was Bitcoin miners who
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pioneered and found the electricity that was sourced by
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solar, wind and flare gas and it was surplus.
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No electricity is being created in where The Pioneers were the
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Bitcoin miners, Caruso, and they established that and then you
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have Core Scientific. Core we trying to take over Core
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scientific because the Bitcoin miners found the stranded
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electricity. What did Hive do?
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Hive went to northern Sweden, where they had surplus
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electricity. Then Hive went to Paraguay,
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where there's an even a greater amount.
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And we're building these big data centers.
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It will be the stepping stone. The Bitcoin miners are The
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Pioneers for AI. And why is AI so important?
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Because the big military spending in Europe needs AI data
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centers. They need them here because a
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lot of the weaponry is going to be autonomous.
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Autonomous cars. That's all we think of.
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No, it's going to be humanoids by Tesla.
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It's going to be autonomous tanks, autonomous submarines.
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But they all need AI data centers.
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So who are The Pioneers? Our Bitcoin mine data centers,
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and what you could see is the data centers in America all of a
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sudden being all converted to AI data centers and no Bitcoin
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mining. That's what you can see because
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they've been a resource stock. But the spend is much bigger
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than anyone believes. And it's, I know because we're
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the first to do it. We're the first to do hedging,
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we're the first to hedge the electricity.
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And we're the 1st to take our A chips, NVIDIA chips to do AI
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from mining Ethereum. When Ethereum went away from
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proof of work to proof of stake, we pivoted and now we have
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10,000 customers renting our chips.
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Data centers, Energy chips, debt.
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Bitcoin miners didn't follow AI. They built the foundation for
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it. And as AI concentrates power and
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capital, governments spend more, corporations lever more, and
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financial abstraction increases more Bitcoin benefits not
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because AI exists, but because AI accelerates leverage.
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So my #3 take away for 2026 is that Bitcoin becomes the hard
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collateral in an AI leveraged world #4 stimulus.
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Oh, I just got stimulated. Fiscal policy replaces
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discipline and Bitcoin prices. The consequence?
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Does that make sense? By 2026, monetary policy is
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secondary and fiscal policy is everything I know.
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But what's the difference between fiscal policy and
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monetary policy? Fiscal policy uses government
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spending and taxes to influence the economy controlled by the
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legislative slash executive branches, while monetary policy
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uses interest rates and money supply managed by the central
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bank. The central bank, like the
14:33
Federal Reserve, with the key difference between who controls
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it governments versus central bank, and how taxes slash
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spending versus money slash rates.
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Both aim for stable growth. But fiscal policy directly
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effects budgets, while monetary policy influences borrowing
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costs and money flow. Deficits aren't temporary, and
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spending isn't structural. Debt isn't being paid down, it's
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getting rolled. And as Preston Pisch says,
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governments don't default anymore, they debase.
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For the person. Who's not?
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Intimately familiar. With all the.
15:08
Terminology and the nuances of macroeconomics explain it in
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very. Simple language.
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In your opinion, what's taking place right now?
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I think we're heading towards what I would call a Poly crisis
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of sorts. There's a whole bunch of things
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coming together at once. For starters, the fiscal
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situation which was for all of the hubbub about tariff receipts
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and they were a record. So we had record tariff receipts
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and we had record all time high receipts.
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Overall. The fact is we're still at, when
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you look at true interest expense, which is gross interest
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expense plus entitlement pay goes plus Veterans Affairs
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benefits, you're still 96% ish as percent of receipts that are
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all time highs. So we're still right in that hot
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zone of if anything slows down, you're going to be right back
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over 100%, you're right back into printer default mode and
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they they always choose print. They have to.
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Furthermore, we're now seeing early signs of stress in the
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overnight funding markets. There's a variety of views on
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that. Mine is that it is essentially
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we're now 30 months into the US shifting issuance to the front
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end because there's not enough demand at the back end.
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And as a result, Besant has a Red Queen or Axel Rose problem,
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if you will. I used to do a little bit.
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The little wouldn't do it. So the little got more and more
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or the Red Queen, I got to run faster and faster, stay in the
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same spot. There's more and more issuance
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coming, right? So 2013, we were rolling about
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$100 billion of T-bills a week per Secretary of the Treasury
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Jack Lew. Now it's $550 billion per week
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being rolled, per my friend Andy Constant.
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And so that requires having a greater level of money in the
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Treasury General Account or TGA, which Besant is doing, which is
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in turn putting overnight funding strains on overnight
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funding markets akin to a little bit like what we saw in 2019.
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So you're seeing tightening liquidity there and sort of spot
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applications of liquidity in terms of standing repo facility
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being borrowed against in a bigger way than we have seen
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ever before. It's back to basically nothing.
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But two weeks ago on Halloween, it was 50 billion overnight.
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So that's not a problem. It's going to go away.
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Bitcoin replaces these systems of soft variable policies with
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hardened, immutable ones. So #4 my bullish take away for
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2026. The more permanent stimulus
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becomes, the more attractive fixed supply money looks #5
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divergent growth continues, just not evenly.
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The world isn't collapsing, it's splintering.
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Some regions outperform, others stagnate.
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Capital chases stability. This is where Bitcoin quietly
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wins. It doesn't need synchronized
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growth. It doesn't depend on one
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economy. And as Mark Moss often says,
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when systems diverge, affordable capital matters more than
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perfect returns. Does Mark Moss often say that?
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It's like you wouldn't put all your money in one stock.
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Why do you have your whole life in one country when you don't
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have to? Why not have bank accounts in
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multiple countries and trust in multiple countries?
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And why not have multiple passports?
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Like, why not just be sovereign? And so I was actually working
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with a, with an attorney in the network at the time to establish
18:24
a residency in Panama, get a bank account going in Panama,
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because I was trying to get money out of the banking system.
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I still thought the banking system was fragile.
18:35
I thought another 2008 collapse could come because the system
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didn't get fixed. It only got worse.
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And so I was trying to get money out of the banking system.
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But the thing was, is that was it really getting money out of
18:46
the system because the global financial system is global.
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And so around 2015, I was working with this attorney and I
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took another look at Bitcoin and it was like, wait a minute,
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that's what I'm trying to do. I'm trying to get money out of
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the system. And I tell that part of the
19:02
story because so many people today, smart people, wealthy
19:06
people, prominent people, you'll see them all online saying, but
19:09
what's even the use case and why is there utility and why is
19:12
there's even a need? And it's because they don't
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understand the problems that we have.
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Yeah. I mean, you know, you have a
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little bit of a chuckle, but they don't, right?
19:18
I mean, I'm in New York City, living in my $5,000,000 condo
19:21
and drinking $20 Manhattans. And like, you don't really
19:25
understand the problems that people may have in Afghanistan
19:27
or North Korea or whatever. And so only because I understood
19:31
the problem and because I was actively looking as a key piece,
19:35
because I was actively looking for a solution to my problem.
19:41
You've heard the story of Michael Saylor, I'm sure quite
19:43
often. He talks about in 2020 how they
19:45
came around to Bitcoin. He had $500 million and he
19:47
realized it was a melting ice cube.
19:48
And he's like, what are we going to do with this 500 million?
19:50
I have an acute problem. I need to do something with this
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500 million. I am going to go look for all
19:56
the potential solutions so I can find one.
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So it starts from that point. And so all these people online,
20:01
they're like, what's the use case?
20:02
They don't have a problem and or, or they don't have a problem
20:06
that Bitcoin fixes for them at this point.
20:08
And so for me, that was my problem trying to get money out
20:10
of the banking system, trying to sort of distribute that risk.
20:13
And that's when I took another look at Bitcoin in it and it
20:15
just clicked for me, oh, this is exactly what I'm trying to do,
20:18
get money out of the banking system.
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And so I started buying Bitcoin. Bitcoin is portable,
20:22
permissionless, and it's globally liquid.
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So my bullish take away #5 for 2026.
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Divergent doesn't kill Bitcoin, it justifies it.
20:32
Interesting. Bitcoin being an extreme fear
20:34
doesn't mean it failed. It means the market is staring
20:38
at the symptoms and missing the structure.
20:41
Fragmentation, inflation, AI, stimulus, divergent.
20:46
These aren't bearish forces. They're bitcoins environment and
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if history rhymes at all, extreme fear is where conviction
20:54
gets rewarded. Thank you so much for watching
20:56
this video. If you like what you see and you
20:58
want to see more, make sure you hit that like button below or
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This is beyond Bitcoin. Until next time.