Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / 'American-Made' Crypto ETF INCOMING!🔥🚀Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg📈

Transcript

'American-Made' Crypto ETF INCOMING!🔥🚀Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg📈 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Let's dive into American made crypto ETFs.
• 0:02
  Speaker 2: Today.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: We're going to have a great guest for you. Don't
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: want to miss it. MO name is Paul Barrel. Welcome
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: back into the show. I do want to thank our
• 0:07
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• 0:09
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• 0:37
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• 0:41
  Speaker 1: You guys can get to it all right. I have
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Stephen mcclurk coming in from Canary Capital. He's been on
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: our show before. Steven, how are you.
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: Hey, great, good to be back, Paul, Hey, Yeah.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Okay. So a couple of points that we want to
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: get into today, and I think that is the movement
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: of what you guys. First of all, congrats you guys
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: have been filing ETFs left it feels like you've been busy.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Now you have an American made crypto ETF filed. Tell
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: me what you guys are looking to do with this?
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, you know, not not really addressing the
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: ETF directly, but the theme that we really like right
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: now is American made crypto. There are several protocols as
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: we speak that are looking at repatriating their treasury that
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: in a lot of cases are sitting overseas. So there's
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: been years where they've tried to get outside of the US,
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: stay outside of the US, and now they're all bringing
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: it back. So I believe under this administration that American
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: made cryptocurrencies and American made blockchains are really going to thrive.
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: So you know, we're trying to, you know, really follow
• 1:47
  Speaker 3: that theme. There's even been talk about tax advantages. I
• 1:50
  Speaker 3: don't know if that's going to happen or not, but
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: I do believe that there is going to be a
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: significant upside for crypto here in America.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: So, okay, you you're mentioning some interesting points here. Repatriating
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: treasuries into the United States. That tells me that most
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: likely there's conversations going on with the administration and David
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: Sachs with a lot of these protocols out there. Your
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Friday filing said the proposed fund would track an index
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: of cryptocurrency's created mind or primarily operated in the United States.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Does that mean that the Treasury has to reside here
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: in the US to be able to qualify as what?
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: What are the qualifiers I guess for your etf.
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: Well, you know, we would follow it index so that
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: that that index would have its own requirements.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: So you know, we don't really comment on how that
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: is managed because it's a third entity.
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: But generally, if you if you think about the way
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: that we think about America made crypto is either a
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: majority of the team is here, they built it here,
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: or they're protocol from here.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, well that would make more sense when you okay,
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: so what makes you think they're going to repatriate funds
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: some of these treasures?
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: Have you heard of this?
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: I mean I've had conversations with several foundations that are
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: currently offshore, whether they're in Switzerland or Singapore or Malta
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: or what have you. And now that they feel like
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: it's safe to run a protocol or a blockchain under
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: this administration. They're looking at bringing the capital back over
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: here because the reality is is they use that treasury
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: to fund projects that are mostly in the US, So
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: it's a lot easier for foundations to operate out of
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: here and operate their treasuries out of here.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, I think and if we look at market
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Structure Bill, which could happen in the next few months,
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: leaning into what's going on in DC, that of course
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: starts to change things as well, because it starts to
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: open up a lot, a lot of opportunities for even
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: the fortune five hundred. You know, general business will most
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: likely get involved in that. So I would agree with you,
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: We're going to see a lot of activity. I'm looking
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: at Nate Garrossi's tweet right here, all the crypto ETF
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: filings right here. Sefer from Bloomberg did this. I think
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: it was ninety six on this chart. And here's my
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: question to you. You are one of them that is
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: in this chart right here. You of course have a
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: handful of ETFs, and of course you have the ripple.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: I think the most maybe the most famous ETF is
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: the ripple filing for Canary. What is going to make
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: Canary a go to place as a resource for an
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: ETF for an investor coming into the market and wanting
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: to go that direction.
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: Look, when I was in a previous job at Guggenheim,
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: we were a very small shop that we were kind
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: of known to be experts in what we did, which
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: was ascid back securities and structured products.
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: And we would go head to head with with.
• 4:56
  Speaker 3: Firms that were sometimes ten to fifty times bigger than us.
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: And when people choose.
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: Firms to go with, usually they choose one big, famous
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: one that you know, nobody's going to lose their job
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: for choosing, like a black Rock, And then they.
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: Choose an expert.
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: So what what we have on our team is really
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: an expertise and cryptocurrencies. We do have a very strong
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: traditional finance expertise as well, but we do have I mean,
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: we we're deep in the space. We work very closely
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: with protocols. We've got a fantastic team, so you know,
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: we know a lot of you know, we we know
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: a lot about what's going on, probably better than anybody
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: else does, and that's why we're able to really dig
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: into some of the lower market cap plays for some
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: of our filings, because you know, we're we understand those
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: protocols and we know what's we know it's good, we
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: know it's not, and I think people are going to
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: look for us to do to show them that well.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: And it's going to open up a lot of opportunity
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: because of the structured capital flow that most likely is
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: going to be coming quickly into this the rip. I
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: believe TF or XRPETF approval odds right now on polymarket
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: hovering on around eighty six percent, so one of its
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: highest points. But it looks like this is going to
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: happen almost everybody I talk to, the Bloomberg guys, everybody's
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: kind of pointing that this is going to happen. What
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: is the likelihood of the timing for this right now?
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: Well, the first answer is I don't know, because it's
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: really sitting with regulators. But if I had to guess,
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: I would guess that XRP would probably be this year,
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: along with along with light Coin, possibly hbar Solana. Those
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: are the ones that I do believe will occur in
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: twenty twenty five. There's several others that won't happen until
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: twenty twenty six. But I mean the information that I
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: get that off of is the generical listing standard.
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: That's currently under review.
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: And if you just look at that generical listing standard,
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: I think either Eric or James from Bloomberg simply said, well,
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: if there's futures at coinbase, you probably need twenty twenty five.
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: So I think that's a really really good standard to
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: look at, and then I do believe that it will
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: adjust over time to include a lot.
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: Of other things.
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: So you know, and again there's there's a lot of
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: ETF filings out there, but you got to think that
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: ten of them are basically Bitcoin, ten of them are XRP,
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: ten of them are Salana, ten of them are eth
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: and so that really takes the bulk out of it.
• 7:24
  Speaker 3: There's a lot of issuers going after this, so we'll
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: see who writs well.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: And I'm looking at also Garassi's tweet three hundred million
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: in infos on spot ETFs now one point two billion
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: for the week, four billion in August. This is on eight,
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: so this could approach ten billion.
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: Since July.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: You and I had this conversation on our XRP podcast,
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: very specific about what that could look like your statement
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: at that time was five billion in the first month.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: Are you still holding to that? Do you think that's
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: a possibility.
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: I really am, And it all depends on macroeconomic factors
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: and what's happening in the market.
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: That always changes things.
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: But there's a you know, I would say, after Bitcoin,
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: XRP is probably the most well known on Wall Street
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: and on finance circles, and then eight is actually probably
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: number thirty three. So if you think about it that way,
• 8:20
  Speaker 3: I do believe that XRP could potentially outperform eth just
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: from you know, pure financial services standpoint.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: No doubt. All Right, With that being said, you mentioned
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: macro economics that play into this. July PCE data, Fed's
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: preferred inflation rises two point six. This was in line
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: with what expectations were around two point six Core PCE
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: two point nine, also in line. Many people were still
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: expect expecting this to kind of push so rates now
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: people still anticipating that a FED rate cut is still coming.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Do you think September will be a FED rate cut?
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Do you think we'll get it?
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: I do.
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: First of all, I'm going to say that the FED
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: should cut the FED rate, and it should have happened
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: a few months ago, but I do believe that they
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: will finally in September. I do believe there'll be one
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: more in October, December's anybody knows right now. But what
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: I really believe that the FED should be doing is
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: not only cutting short end rates, but also selling off
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: securities from their balance sheet with longer maturity, because we
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: actually don't want the long end of the curve to
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: come down. We only want the short end to come down.
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: Right now, I'm getting rewarded for I'm getting rewarded more
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: for taking risk on one month paper than I am
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: for ten months for ten year paper, and that is
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: not great when you're when you're an investor, you know
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: you want a yield curve that's normal, not one that's inverted.
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: Well, and if you look forward, Steven and compare what
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: will happen and maybe here in this last quarter to
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: what could happen with a new FED chair coming in.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: You've got Christopher Waller announcing he will support an interest
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: rate cut. He's one of the crises that are, you know,
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: under consideration. But if you look into twenty twenty six
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: now with a new FED chair rolling into it, in May.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: What do you feel like that environment's going to look
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: like on the first half of twenty twenty six.
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, look, once once Pale is gone and there's a
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: there's a new chairman, it truly will probably be a
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: little too accommodating. There's a balance, right, I think you know.
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: Trump has been calling for about three points of rate cuts.
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: I'm calling for maybe one point, but with wait and see,
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: because we don't want inflation to get back out of control.
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: We want housing prices to come down. But the rest
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: of the market obviously loves easy money, and of course
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: politicians love easy money because that's what gets them reelected
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: the economy, and if the economy is bad, it's tough
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: for a party or or officials to get reelected. So
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: I want to see a balance, and I hope that
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: we see balance in the new chair. I hope that
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: they don't accommodate so much that we have rampant inflation
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: and high prices again. But I don't know what's going
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: to happen there, and I assume they'll probably cut a
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: little too far.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: A little too far over overage, as they say. Looking
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: at ethereum and what's happening with a lot of these
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: eighth treasury companies. BM and R now gets a little
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: bit of attention from Kathy Woods. I know you would.
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: I know you are.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Aware of everything that's happening there on the street, but
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: this starts to move things in a big direction, at
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: least for ethereum. Do you think the ETFs can compete
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: with what's happening with these treasury companies in terms of
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: institutional capital inflow, because that's you know, it's Kathy Wood
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: right there.
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I really do.
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: I mean, there's going to be people that cross over
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: and do both, but for the most part, you're going
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: to want people that want pure play. Right, So if
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: a lot of retail investors are going to a lot
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: of them want pure play, one of them are going
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: to some are going to want some of the bit
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: of the leverage play that the treasury companies or the
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: dad's offer. Yeah, and then when you look at financial
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: advisors outside of micro strategy, I believe they're going to
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: want a pure play too, because how can they explain
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: to their client.
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: They're like, well, you know.
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna put this company in your portfolio that has
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: a failing pharmaceutical company, but guess what they've got a
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: lot of ETH on the balance sheet, so that's why
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: we're buying it. That's really a complicated conversation, and financial
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: advisors don't want to take that.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: They don't like that. Yeah, yeah, I would, I would
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: agree what she makes it. You know, the ETF a
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: little bit stronger vehicle in that unless you do get
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: some of these companies that kind of go in that direction.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: I'll play a clip for you. This is Kathy Wood
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: talking about versus ethtfs in fact, so listen in what
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: she had to say.
• 13:01
  Speaker 4: There are all kinds of problems when forty Act funds
• 13:06
  Speaker 4: buy another fund, another ETF to gain exposure. There are
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: tax issues, there are fee issues, bad income. If those
• 13:19
  Speaker 4: profits gross profits, this is gross. There's no netting here.
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: If those gross profits are more than ten percent of
• 13:28
  Speaker 4: the total profits generated in a year of a fund,
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: the entire fund can be shut down. The tax benefit
• 13:39
  Speaker 4: You'll basically you'll lose a lot of tax benefits and
• 13:44
  Speaker 4: you'll be subjecting the fund to a great number of finds,
• 13:48
  Speaker 4: if not actual shutting down. So we can't take those risks.
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: This is the first time we've been able to gain
• 13:55
  Speaker 4: a solid position in ETHER and you know, sure it
• 14:01
  Speaker 4: comes at a premium, but what's different from bitcoin treasuries
• 14:08
  Speaker 4: like micro strategy now strategy is there's just more utility
• 14:14
  Speaker 4: that these ether treasuries can offer, staking being one of
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: the most important ones. The ETFs at least not yet
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: do not that ether ETFs do not are not allowed to.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: Stake all right, So a few things done wine there.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: Kathy's on the other side of your position is that
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: the exposure could come through the treasury company as as
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: opposed to and I wasn't aware of this Act forty.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: Explain to me what she's talking about there in terms
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: of the ETF funds profits.
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so, well, there's there's two different acts that we
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: should we should be clear on the first one is
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: the thirty three Act, which allows for non securities to
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: be in a ETF such as the bitcoin ETFs. Most
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: of the ones that we filed are all thirty three Act.
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: But a forty Act is essentially a RIC so that
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: means a registered investment company, it's company forty Act because
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: it holds, you know, a certain percentage of securities on
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: its balance sheet, and you can be potentially deemed as
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: a forty Act company or a rick if it looks
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: like your activities are investment, and that's actually something that
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: some of these treasury companies might run a foul of that.
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: We've got to be careful. Now.
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: Where we're Kathy's coming from is she runs an active
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: ETF business and she doesn't like the fact that she's
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: an ETF investing in another ETF. That is problematic from
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: her standpoint, but that's what that's not what most people's
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: issues are.
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: Going back.
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: If I'm a financial advisor or even an individual, I
• 15:56
  Speaker 3: prefer the ETF over the treasury company because an ETF
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: has a very clear cut fee. So if you're holding
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: say Solana, and you're staking Solana and you're earning, you know,
• 16:10
  Speaker 3: seven percent on the stake, and the fee on that
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: ETF might be one percent, so that is you know
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: exactly what that fee is. But if you're investing in
• 16:19
  Speaker 3: adapt then that dat is paying an asset manager to
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: manage the treasury, and some of the deals that we've
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: seen are anywhere between two and five percent is the
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: management fee on these treasuries. So that's something that people
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: would need to be aware of.
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: And you're paying the.
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: Operating cost on top of that of the operators of
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: that publicly traded company, so.
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: Phel plus the operating costs assive fee.
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: You know. Interesting.
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, I love it when we unwrap the onion here.
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah.
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: No, there's some deals out there that are really bad
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: that we've seen where you know, some of the some
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: of the board members and the and the and the
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: officers are taking massive warrants. The bankers are charging high fees,
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: the asset managers are three to five percent, and by
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: the time and what you're left with is probably like
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: you know, for every dollar you put in, you're only
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: getting ninety cents, yeah, whereas an etf it's more like
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: you're getting ninety nine cents.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: Do you think that these treasury companies could be the
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: unraveling of this market at least this particular liquidity cycle
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: that we're.
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: In, the ones that aren't done right. Absolutely will.
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: I do believe that the treasury companies, you know, again,
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: some of the ones that are are really aggressive on
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: how much they're paying themselves and paying their managers are
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: going to be the next ft.
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: X, It's going to be the next Falseius.
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: They're leveraging up their treasuries and when and if there's
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: a there's a there's a bad day or a bad year,
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: these things are going to go, you know, close to zero.
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: Well, listen, we've had a handful of treasury companies here
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: on the show. I'm going to start diving in deeper
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: on these on these questions because what you're bringing up
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: is a completely different narrative here than what we've seen
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: put out there in the market. So very interesting headwinds
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: ahead of us right now. Speaking of that, seasonality, futures
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: positioning signals some crypto headwinds coming in bitcoin eighth. Obviously,
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: seasonality points to maybe a baris September and a rebound
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: in Q four. You look at Master, which is strategy
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: trading at a one point four to two nav M NAB.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: This is the value to their assets for those of
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: you guys go out and search him navs. So you
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: understand how these treasury companies work. But does this mean
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: that maybe Sailor is fine? Is he finally in trouble
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: this far into this cycle.
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: No, I don't think he's. I don't think he's in
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: trouble in this one. Mike Strategy is a bit of
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: an anomaly just because it's mostly at this point just
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: Bitcoin and the operating company is very small compared to
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: the rest of it, and that's covering a lot of
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: their cost. Yeah, at the end of the day, the
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: market is and this is what makes a lot of
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: these treasury companies inefficient. Compared to ETFs ETF there's a arbitrage,
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: a natural arbitrage that keeps you right at NAV on
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: a daily basis, where some of the treasury companies there's
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: a lot of hype and then and then and then
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: they can go the other direction. So that's just a
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: sacer price. It doesn't really affect the company itself, but
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: it could cause a lot of pain for some people
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: if the market begins to draw.
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, this is uh, this is what I'm most concerned
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: about because it feels like it's the most unpredictable right
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: now in terms of the markets and how this might play.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: And remember these are traders, guys. These are traders that
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: are out there investing in this. They'll move off of
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: an asset so fast. This is not a convicted community
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: like what you see in traditional direct exposure to assets
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: or even ETFs to a certain extent. I was looking
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: at your tweet right here. Higher chance this was in
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: reference to a statement from Scott Over at the Wolf
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: of Wall Streets Tom Lee fifty chance ethereum eth will
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: flip Bitcoin in network value. Your statement was that the
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: BlackBerry is going to have to come back from the
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: dead for this to happen. So you're absolutely on the
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: other side not going to happen.
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Look, you know there's every time, you know, at
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: the end of the cycle, this happens.
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: At every time slipping is coming, always.
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: Gets a nice little rally. I was always going to
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: flip bitcoin. No, it's not going to flip bitcoin. Bitcoin
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: has established itself as a currency and a strong currency.
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: Eth is a protocol. It's a completely different thing, and
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: there are so many other competitors to Ether for what
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: it does, that are faster, that are more secure, that
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: are better And look, you know, price is something where
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: you know, you know, price, price can move you know,
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: on the pims of humans, not based on any kind
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: of fundamentals. So yeah, there's there's a possibility that ETH
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: keeps rallying this year. But the reality is as a protocol,
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: people have moved on, you know, Salona injective, you know,
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: these communities are moving on and building things on better networks,
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: and you know, yeah, there's still a lot of activity
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: on ETH, but it's out data technology.
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: It's it's it's the BlackBerry and the iPhone is here.
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: Well, and I'm going to defend on ETH for a second.
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: And of course, if you listen to what Vitallic is
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: saying their cycle of re you know, kind of revamping
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: some of the tech, but it is a change in
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: protocol which would give them the capacity to be able
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: to do some of the things that you're mentioning that
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: some of these other chains are capable of right now.
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: But again, ETH has a very good developer community because
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: I am you know, when you track exponential growth, when
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: you put the market structure built into that equation, now
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: you have a recipe, you have all regulatory framework. That's
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: you know, it's kind of like you're loose. When we
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: started to see kind of the innovation in the Internet,
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: it was kind of done that way. If we see
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: that happen and ETH is in the right place at
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: the right time, it could catch that final win and
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: still take control of the market and maybe to Tom
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: Lee's point, could play into it. So I'm on the
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: fence as to whether or not that's possible. Too many things.
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: After that way. I'm not going to I'm not going
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: to disagree with you.
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: If you're in the right place, right time, your market
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: opportunities right, anything could happen. And that's probably more related
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: to eth versus other protocols. But flipping bitcoin, I just
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: you know, it's nothing's impossible. But I can't imagine a
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: world where that happens.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: Well, it would, it would take something that would be huge.
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: And if you look at some of that seventy five
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: percent of stocks now three and four of major cyclicals
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: sectors are now above their two hundred day moving additors.
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: This is looking at sentiment in general, and this is
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: in reference to something you and I have talked about,
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: and that is how long does this bull cycle last?
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: Because we are really, guys, we are in a bullsize.
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: I know many of you think we got one more
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: leg up. Maybe bitcoin goes to one fifty or above,
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: if maybe goes to eighty or ten. But Stephen, when
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: you look at the cycle, because I understand your theory
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: is that this is short lived, how will this play
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: out in your opinion as we end the year?
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean for us, probably the highest probability event
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: is a week September and a strong rally in Q
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: four not.
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: Too far behind.
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: That is another probability where we really start rallying in
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: September October, peak out in October when the FED makes
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: the second rate cut, and then start petering out through
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: twenty twenty six. Okay, so those are probably the two
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: highest probability events either way, We're we're looking at that
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: and positioning ourselves for that eventuality. And if you if
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: you ask me today, that's what I say is going
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: to happen. Things obviously could change. We could get a
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: new FED chair where you know, rates go to one percent.
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: If that's the case, then twenty twenty six.
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: Is off to the races.
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: But in our current environment, based on you know, the
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: current FED and current GDP and current economic growth, I'm
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: still seeing a slowdown at twenty twenty six.
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: Hey David, it's been great having you on today. We're
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: going to be watching all your ecfs as they start
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: to come to a free ration. We'll definitely get you
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: back on as soon as your XRP ETFs approved. I
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: want to have you back on the show.
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: Okay, great, thank you so much.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: All right, thanks for coming in. All right, guys, if
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: you are not part of the Diamond Circle. You guys,
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: jump over to Paulbaronnetwork dot com. That is a brand
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: new website. We've revamped it. It's called V two. We
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: have a whole slew of new platforms over there for you,
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: including our own crypto Index, which we're measuring on three
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: critical categories of crypto and that is Fundamental Sentiment, and
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: a composite score that looks at the top fifty. It's
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: called the BCI fifty. Check it out over on Paul
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: Baron Network, and of course you can hit that link
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: down below to find it. Of course, follow me out
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: there on X at Paul Baron. We'll catch you next
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: time right here on The Paul Baron Show.